Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 13

Thursday, November 28, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
12:30 PM Chicago Bears Detroit Lions
4:30 PM Buffalo Bills Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM New Orleans Saints Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, December 1, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM New York Jets Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Philadelphia Eagles Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers New York Giants
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers
4:05 PM Los Angeles Rams Arizona Cardinals
4:25 PM Oakland Raiders Kansas City Chiefs
4:25 PM Los Angeles Chargers Denver Broncos
8:20 PM New England Patriots Houston Texans

Monday, December 2, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks


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NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/25/2019.............1-1-0.........50.00%..........-0.50
11/24/2019...........8-16-0..........33.33%........-48.00
11/21/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%..........-0.50
11/18/2019.............2-0-0........100.00%........+10.00
11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

Totals...................40-56-1.........41.66%..........-113.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/25/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00............0 - 1...............-5.50...............-0.50
11/24/2019..............4 - 4...........-2.00..............2 - 9..............-38.50..............-40.50
11/21/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/18/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+10.00
11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


Totals.....................18 - 21..........-25.50..........15 - 29..............-93.50.............-119.00


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NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack

— Virginia Tech 71, Michigan State 66— Hokies were an 11-point dog in Maui.

— Bucks 122, Jazz 118— Antetokounmpo scored 50, had 14 rebounds.

— Richmond 62, Wisconsin 52— Spiders post an upset to get to 5-0.

— Lakers 114, Spurs 104- San Antonio lost nine of its last ten games.

— Nets 108, Cavaliers 106— Injury-riddled Nets improve to 9-8.

— Arkansas 62, Georgia Tech 61 OT— Eric Musselman’s Razorbacks improve to 6-0.

Tweet of the Day
“it wont happen but if Louisville were really thinking about Lamar Jackson’s future they would move him to wr, thats where he will play in NFL”
ESPN’s Booger McFarland, back on June 20, 2017

Tuesday’s quiz
What three major league teams did Alex Rodriguez play for?

Monday’s quiz
Kirk Cousins was the Redskins’ QB the last time they played in a playoff game.

Sunday’s quiz
Lute Olson was the head coach of the last Pac-12 team to win the national title in basketball, when Arizona won the title in 1997.

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Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) All these ex-referees on football telecasts wouldn’t be so bad, if they didn’t constantly blindly congratulate officials on the field for always making good calls, because they don’t always make good calls.

In Sunday’s Dallas-New England game, they called tripping on the Cowboys center in a big spot which was a horrendous call, yet FOX’s Mike Pereira went out of his way to say it was a good call. Troy Aikman called him out on it, which was good.

If they’re not going to be critical when deserved, they shouldn’t be on TV.

12) Detroit Lions wanted to sign journeyman QB Josh Johnson to back up Jeff Driskel with Matthew Stafford injured, but the XFL blocked the deal, since Johnson is already under contract to play for the Los Angeles Wildcats when the new league starts in February.

33-year old Johnson can’t be happy about this; he’s been under contract with 15 different NFL teams in his career. You have to figure the XFL is going to be a lot like the AAF was last winter, as in, light years from NFL quality.

11) Pretty cool moment at a I-AA game in Youngstown over the weekend; senior QB Nathan Mays injured his leg, but he suited up and a couple of his teammates carried him on the field so he could take the last snap of his career in victory formation. Then they carried him off the field, because he couldn’t walk on his own.

For teammates to think so much of a guy that they would do that, it was a good moment.

10) Winnipeg 33, Hamilton 12— Congrats to the Blue Bombers, who won their first Grey Cup title since 1990.

9) Kansas 93, Chaminade 63— This was Bill Walton’s first ESPN broadcast of the season, so I learned something that has nothing to do with basketball.

Because whales are an endangered (and therefore protected) species, the whale population has been growing worldwide, at the rate of roughly 7% each year.

8) NFL favorites are 77-94-5 ATS this season.

7) Ravens 45, Rams 6:
— Ravens won their last seven games, covered last five.
— Baltimore scored a touchdown the first six times they had the ball.

6) Cincinnati Bengals came to their senses and will start Andy Dalton at QB Sunday, after rookie Ryan Finley started the last three games.

5) Cleveland Browns won their last three games after a 2-6 start, are only a game out of the 2nd Wild Card slot in the AFC. Only one team, the 1970 Bengals, made the playoffs after starting a season 2-6.

4) UNLV upset San Jose State 38-35 Saturday, in the last college football game at Sam Boyd Stadium- the Rebels move into brand-new Allegiant Stadium next year.

Hasn’t been a good year for UNLV; they fired coach Tony Sanchez Monday. Also in the Mountain West, New Mexico fired coach Bob Davie Monday.

3) Raptors 101, 76ers 96— Joel Embiid went scoreless for first time in his NBA career, going 0-11 from the floor, 0-3 on foul line in 32:00.

2) Baseball stuff:
— Atlanta Braves gave C Travis d’arnaud a 2-year, $16M contract.
— Tampa Bay Rays replaced d’arnaud with former Seattle catcher Mike Zunino.

1) Oregon Ducks have played 11 football games this year; five of them have come against teams who started freshman quarterbacks.

[StarDust Bum]

305CHICAGO -306 DETROIT
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the current season.

307BUFFALO -308 DALLAS
BUFFALO is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

309NEW ORLEANS -310 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after an upset loss in the last 2 seasons.

451GREEN BAY -452 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) in home games in the last 2 seasons.

451GREEN BAY -452 NY GIANTS
Pat Shurmur is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) in home games in games played on turf (Coach of NY GIANTS)

453WASHINGTON -454 CAROLINA
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

455SAN FRANCISCO -456 BALTIMORE
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992.

457TENNESSEE -458 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

457TENNESSEE -458 INDIANAPOLIS
Frank Reich is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. winning teams (Coach of INDIANAPOLIS)

459PHILADELPHIA -460 MIAMI
PHILADELPHIA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season since 1992.

461OAKLAND -462 KANSAS CITY
OAKLAND is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.

463TAMPA BAY -464 JACKSONVILLE
TAMPA BAY is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.

465NY JETS -466 CINCINNATI
NY JETS are 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

467LA RAMS -468 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

469LA CHARGERS -470 DENVER
DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

471CLEVELAND -472 PITTSBURGH
CLEVELAND is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.

473NEW ENGLAND -474 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

475MINNESOTA -476 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.


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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 28

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CHICAGO (5 - 6) at DETROIT (3 - 7 - 1) - 11/28/2019, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 146-184 ATS (-56.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (8 - 3) at DALLAS (6 - 5) - 11/28/2019, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 8) - 11/28/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 1

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GREEN BAY (8 - 3) at NY GIANTS (2 - 9) - 12/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 114-84 ATS (+21.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (2 - 9) at CAROLINA (5 - 6) - 12/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 85-56 ATS (+23.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 1) at BALTIMORE (8 - 2) - 12/1/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (6 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 5) - 12/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 120-157 ATS (-52.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 6) at MIAMI (2 - 9) - 12/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 77-53 ATS (+18.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MIAMI is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
MIAMI is 61-87 ATS (-34.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (6 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 4) - 12/1/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 7) - 12/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (4 - 7) at CINCINNATI (0 - 11) - 12/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (6 - 4) at ARIZONA (3 - 7 - 1) - 12/1/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 144-191 ATS (-66.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (4 - 7) at DENVER (3 - 8) - 12/1/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 128-94 ATS (+24.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 128-94 ATS (+24.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 93-64 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 64-89 ATS (-33.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (5 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 5) - 12/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 83-56 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 96-70 ATS (+19.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 1) at HOUSTON (7 - 4) - 12/1/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 206-149 ATS (+42.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 198-150 ATS (+33.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 120-90 ATS (+21.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-90 ATS (+30.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-57 ATS (+28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 2

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MINNESOTA (8 - 3) at SEATTLE (9 - 2) - 12/2/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 71-42 ATS (+24.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 28

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 13 games at home
Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Buffalo is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 11 games
Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing at home against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta


Sunday, December 1

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
Indianapolis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 14 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 14 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Cincinnati is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 7-13-1 ATS in its last 21 games
NY Jets is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Jets is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Jets is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Carolina is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 12 games at home
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Washington
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Washington is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Carolina
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Baltimore

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games
Jacksonville is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Jacksonville is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 10 games at home
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 8-12-3 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Giants's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
NY Giants is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Green Bay
NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 25 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing NY Giants
Green Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Pittsburgh's last 21 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 20-4-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 1-7-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 1-6-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
LA Rams is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Rams is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 9 games on the road
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Rams's last 15 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Kansas City's last 19 games
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing Oakland
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games
Oakland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Oakland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

Denver Broncos
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Denver's last 20 games
Denver is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home
Denver is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 12 games at home
Denver is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 3-9-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games
LA Chargers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 10 games
LA Chargers is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
LA Chargers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Chargers is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Chargers is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
LA Chargers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

Houston Texans
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games at home
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games when playing New England
New England Patriots
New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
New England is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 7 games on the road
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 11 games when playing Houston


Monday, December 2

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 20 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Bears (5-6) @ Lions (3-7-1)— Chicago is 5-0 when they allow 15 or fewer points, 0-6 when they allow more than 15; Bears lost five of last seven games, are 2-2 SU in true road games. Under Nagy, Chicago is 4-4 ATS as a road favorite, 1-1 TY. Bears’ last five games went under total. Detroit lost its last four games, none by more than 8 points; they’re 2-3 SU at home- since 2011, Lions are 7-16-1 ATS as a home underdog, 2-2 TY. Detroit scored 16+ points in nine of 11 games TY. Lions (+6.5) lost 20-13 in Chicago three weeks ago, despite outgaining Bears 357-226; Chicago won last three series games, by 7-12-7 points- their win here LY snapped a 5-game losing streak at Ford Field. Favorites are 4-0-1 ATS in last five series games.

Bills (8-3) @ Cowboys (6-5)— Buffalo is 7-0 when it scores 17+ points, 1-3 when they don’t; Bills won four of five road road games, with lone loss 19-16 (+3) in Cleveland. Under McDermott, Bills are 9-6-2 ATS as a road underdog, 2-0-1 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Dallas didn’t score TD in rain in Foxboro LW, after scoring 14 TD’s on 41 drives in previous four games. Cowboys are 0-4 TY vs teams with winning record; they’re 3-2 SU at home, 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Five of their last seven games went over. Dallas won three of last four series games, winning 44-7/10-6 in last two played here (last one in ’11). NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-6 ATS this season; AFC East road dogs are 4-4-1.

Saints (9-2) @ Falcons (3-8)— Atlanta (+13.5) stunned their rivals 26-9 in Superdome three weeks ago, sacking Brees six times; not often Saints play a game without scoring a TD- that was Saints’ only loss in last nine games. NO won its last four road games; they’re 9-3 ATS in ;last dozen games as a road favorite, 1-0 TY. Three of their last four road games went over. Atlanta laid an egg at home LW, after they had won couple in row; Falcons lost their last four home games- they’re 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog, 2-1 TY. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Falcons are 6-5 in last 11 series games; Teams split last eight series games played here. Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in last 10 series games.


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Thanksgiving Day Trends

The annual NFL Thanksgiving Day slate has arrived and this year’s three-game card will feature a pair of rematches from the 2018 holiday card.

Detroit and Dallas will once again be hosts as they welcome Chicago and Buffalo respectively. In the primetime game, Atlanta and New Orleans will go head-to-head in a divisional clash.

Be sure to check out the latest sports betting trends for all three Thanksgiving Day matchups and the past history.

Trends for Detroit-Chicago

-- After winning four straight games on the holiday from 2013 to 2016, the Lions have dropped their last two games on Thanksgiving Day.

-- Prior to the 4-0 run, the Lions had lost nine straight games on Thanksgiving between 2004 and 2012.

-- Detroit has seen the 'over' go 9-4 in its last 13 games played on Thanksgiving Day.

-- This will be the 10th meeting between Chicago and Detroit on the holiday and it will also be a rematch from last year's Thanksgiving Day matchup.

-- The Lions own a 5-4 record in the first nine holiday encounters.

-- Chicago captured a 23-16 win over Detroit last season, covering as a three-point road favorite while the 'under' (42.5) also connected. In 2014, Detroit doubled-up Chicago with a 34-17 victory.

-- The Bears have gone 4-7 all-time in the Thanksgiving Day afternoon matchups, which includes a 4-5 record versus the Lions and 0-2 against the Cowboys.
Trends for Dallas-Buffalo
-- Dallas owns an all-time 31-19-1 record on Thanksgiving Day.

-- The Cowboys defeated Washington 31-23 last season on the holiday, covering as a seven-point favorite. The 'over' (40) cashed as the pair exploded with 37 points in the second-half.

-- Prior to that win, Dallas had dropped three of its last four games on the holiday and the only wins in the last five years on Thanksgiving have both come against Washington. All three of the losses came by double digits.

-- Dallas has allowed 29.3 points per game in its last seven holiday matchups.

-- Buffalo owns a 0-2 all-time record on the holiday, its last appearance coming in the 1994 season. Both games were against the Lions and the Bills were blown out in each contest (35-21, 27-14).

Thanksgiving History - Detroit
Year Matchup
2018 Chicago 23 Detroit 16
2017 Minnesota 30 Detroit 23
2016 Detroit 16 Minnesota 13
2015 Detroit 45 Philadelphia 14
2014 Detroit 34 Chicago 17
2013 Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
2012 Houston 34 Detroit 31 (OT)
2011 Green Bay 27 Detroit 15
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7

Thanksgiving History - Dallas
Year Matchup
2018 Dallas 31 Washingon 23
2017 L.A. Chargers 28 Dallas 6
2016 Dallas 31 Washington 26
2015 Carolina 33 Dallas 14
2014 Philadelphia 33 Dallas 10
2013 Dallas 31 Oakland 24
2012 Dallas 31 Washington 38
2011 Dallas 20 Miami 19
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21


Trends for New Orleans-Atlanta

-- This will be the 14th season that the NFL will have a night game on Thanksgiving Day. The primetime game began in 2006.

-- Home teams have gone 9-4 straight up during this span.

-- Favorites own a 11-2 straight up and 10-3 against the spread record.

-- Ten of the 13 outcomes have been decided by double digits.

-- The 'under' has gone 9-4 during this span.

-- New Orleans defeated Atlanta 31-17 last season from the Superdome as favorites (-12.5) while the 'under' (61.5) was never in doubt.

-- The Falcons have played in the Thanksgiving night game twice and they're 0-2, both losses coming by double digits.

Thanksgiving History - Night Game (2006-2018)
Year Matchup
2018 New Orleans Saints 31 vs. Atlanta Falcons 17
2017 Washington Redskins 20 vs. New York Giants 10
2016 Pittsburgh Steelers 28 at Indianapolis Colts 7
2015 Chicago Bears 17 at Green Bay Packers 13
2014 Seattle Seahawks 19 at San Francisco 49ers 3
2013 Baltimore Ravens 22 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 20
2012 New England Patriots 49 at New York Jets 19
2011 Baltimore Ravens 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers 6
2010 New York Jets 26 vs. Cincinnati Bengals 10
2009 Denver Broncos 26 vs. New York Giants 6
2008 Philadelphia Eagles 48 vs. Arizona Cardinals 20
2007 Indianapolis Colts 31 at Atlanta Falcons 13
2006 Kansas City Chiefs 19 vs. Denver Broncos 10

[StarDust Bum]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 13 odds: It's time to take the Titans
Jason Logan

If you’re sold on the Titans and their sudden offensive surge, you may want to get down on Tennessee +3 before a move under the field goal. The Titans have posted an average of more than 29 points over their last five games.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 13 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: TENNESSEE TITANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3, 43.5)

The Titans opened as 3.5-point underdogs on the road in Indianapolis for Week 13 and money on Tennessee has cut that half point hook off the visitor. And it may not stop there. The juice on Colts -3 has been discounted, as books are panning for action on the home side.

If you’re sold on the Titans and their sudden offensive surge, you may want to get down on Tennessee +3 before a move under the field goal. The Titans have posted an average of more than 29 points over their last five games and have totaled 77 points in the last two games. To put that turnaround into perspective, Tennessee totalled only 98 points in the first six weeks of the schedule (43 of those coming in Week 1).

Indianapolis has a mini bye to prep for this AFC South showdown but is coming off a crushing loss to Houston last Thursday – a defeat that could spoil their postseason chances at the end of the year. The Colts offense has struggled to produce this month and faces a Titans defense ranked 10th in points against at 19.7 points per outing.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (+8.5, 46)

It didn’t take long for the betting public to sour on the Dolphins’ sudden success. Miami was one of the hottest bets in football entering Week 11, covering the spread in five straight before losing SU and ATS to Buffalo. Even with that blip, the public was still playing the points with the Fins in Sunday’s date in Cleveland.

The Browns destroyed Miami and that set the table for this spread, which opened at Eagles -8 and has jumped as high as -9. If you’re seeking for value on the Dolphins at home in Week 13, push pause on your betting and see if this one sneaks to +9.5 or even +10 by kickoff.

Philadelphia is desperate for a victory after losing at home to Seattle. If the Eagles are to catch the Cowboys in the NFC East, that climb begins this Sunday. Philly, however, has sputtered with the football, scoring just 13.7 points per game over its last three outings and asking this offense to cover this large a spread may be too much.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 46 GREEN BAY PACKERS AT NEW YORK GIANTS

The Packers come to East Rutherford licking their wounds after a rough outing in San Francisco Sunday night, scoring only eight points in a one-sided loss to the Niners. Green Bay hasn’t looked sharp with the football the past three games, averaging just over two touchdowns per contest in that span. The Cheeseheads will focus on stopping the football heading into Week 13 after this defense was rolled for 37 points by San Francisco.

New York isn’t exactly setting the scoreboard on fire either, managing only 14 points in Chicago this past weekend. The Giants defense is also lacking but gets to come home after two straight road games, and the extended forecast for East Rutherford is calling for cold and rain which could make moving the football a little more challenging for both teams.

This Over/Under opened 46.5 and has dropped to 46. If you like the Under in this matchup, it may be best to play it now before action on a lower-scoring finish drives this number down further.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 44.5 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

If the Patriots are going to win this one, it will be on the shoulders of their stop unit. The New England defense is tops in the NFL and – outside of getting crushed by Baltimore with 37 points – has checked each of its last four opponents to less than two touchdowns against.

The Patriots offense continues to get stuck in the mud and may not be able to keep up if this game turns into a shootout versus a high-powered Houston passing attack. With the public expected to be playing the Pats, I see this total ticking downward a touch before the weekend.

If you like the Over in this game, wait it out and see if this goes to 44 or 43.5. As mentioned, the Texans have a high-flying attack and this game will be played on the clean indoor track inside NRG Stadium. This is the first time Brady & Co. will play inside all season, so they could find another gear in Houston Sunday night.


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Best spot bets for the NFL Week 13 odds: Jets could hit 'letdown' turbulence in Cincy
Jason Logan

New York is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS as a visitor this season and going back to 2015, Gang Green is a dismal 12-21-3 ATS on the road. The Jets are 3.5-point road chalk at Cincinnati in Week 13.

As the schedule shrinks, the pressure mounts for those teams playing for the postseason. On the flip side, Thanksgiving can be the tipping point for those on the outside looking in and motivation – or lack thereof - is a factor in the final weeks.

That makes squeezing every bit of edge you can get from the schedule that much more important. We’re talking about situational handicapping: lookaheads, letdowns and tough schedule spots.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan digs into the Week 13 slate and gives his favorite spot bets.

LETDOWN SPOT: NEW YORK JETS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3.5, 41)

The J-E-T-S are soaring on a three-game winning streak after an upset over Oakland at home in Week 12. New York last won three in a row back in 2017 (Weeks 3-5) and while these recent victories include cupcakes like the Giants and Redskins, Sunday’s 34-3 squash of the Raiders has hopes sky high in the Big Apple.

But what goes up, must come down. And it’s tough to stay that high when you’re facing a winless Cincinnati Bengals team on the road during Thanksgiving Week. The Bengals are bad but haven’t been “that” bad the past two games, covering in a 17-10 loss at Oakland and – depending on where you got Cincy +6.5 to +5.5 – keeping competitive in a 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh Sunday.

The Jets offense, which has hung a trio of 34-point scores on the board during this streak, averages only 17.4 points per road stop. New York is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS as a visitor this season and going back to 2015, Gang Green is a dismal 12-21-3 ATS on the road.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10, 51.5)

Sunday’s divisional dance with the Raiders is an important game to the Chiefs, who are trying to fend off Oakland in the AFC West. But, as the 10-point spread indicates, it should be an easier win for Kansas City this Sunday.

Well, that’s if the Chiefs avoid looking ahead to a big-time battle with the New England Patriots in Week 14. That’s easier said than done. Kansas City is shipping up to Boston next weekend for a revenge game against Tom Brady and the Pats, who knocked off K.C. in the AFC Championship Game with a thrilling 37-31 overtime victory at Arrowhead last January.

And while the Raiders may have been pantsed (full butt cheeks) by the Jets in Week 12, this team was riding a three-game win streak before that tough schedule spot (which we highlighted in this article last week). Sunday's spread flirted with Chiefs -9.5 before Oakland ruled out emerging WR Hunter Renfrow with a bad rib/lung injury.


SCHEDULE SPOT: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (+6.5, 45.5)

I’ll be honest: it was slim pickings for a schedule spot this week. The Thanksgiving Thursday games are always tough on teams due to the quick turnaround and distractions that come with playing on the holiday (away from family, getting tickets for everyone, postgame plans and travel).

So, we turn to the Packers, who are playing their second straight road game in Week 13 after travelling all the way to the Bay Area just to have their asses waxed by the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. They’re now giving a near touchdown to the Giants this weekend.

Green Bay benefited from a very home-friendly slate to open the schedule – playing on the road only twice in the first seven weeks. But the Cheeseheads have hit the highway hard in the past month or so, with Sunday’s stop in East Rutherford marking their fourth road tilt in the past five outings (with a Week 11 bye thrown in there).


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NFL Betting Stats heading into Wk 13:

Road Teams: 98-74-4 ATS
Home Teams: 74-98-4 ATS

Favorites: 76-96-4 ATS
Underdogs: 96-76-4 ATS

Home Faves: 45-67-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 29-31 ATS

Road Faves: 31-29 ATS
Road Dogs: 67-45-4 ATS

O/U: 84-92

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 13
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 28

CHICAGO at DETROIT (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Lions have failed to cover last 2 on Thanksgiving, had covered previous 4, but no covers preceding nine on Turkey Day. Detroit no covers last six this season but Bears just 1-6 last seven vs. line. Bears “under” 14-3 since late 2018, and “unders” 6-2 last 8 in series.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


BUFFALO at DALLAS (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Cowboys just 1-7 last 8 as Thanksgiving host. Bills on 8-3-1 spread run last 12 since late LY, also “under” 9-4 last 11. Buffalo 6-0-2 last 8 as dog.
Tech Edge: Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (NFL, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Saints on 7-2 spread run, though one L was vs. Falcs three weeks ago. Atlanta 3-1 vs. line last 4 TY after dropping previous five vs. spread. Saints had won and covered three meetings previous to Nov. 10 clash. Falcs “under” 12-7 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.



Sunday, Dec. 1

GREEN BAY at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men just 1-7 vs. spread last 7 at MetLife. Giants “over” 8-5 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Pack and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


WASHINGTON at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins 4-7 vs. line TY, 6-11 last 17 since late 2018. Panthers 6-3 last nine vs. line TY. Skins 8-4 “under” since late LY.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Panthers, based on “totals” and team trends..


SAN FRANCISCO at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens had won last 7 SU and covered last 5 afterMonday vs. Rams. Though Balt had covered last 2 at home, Ravens only 3-7-1 last 11 vs. spread at M&T Bank Stadium. Niners 3-0 as dog TY, also “over” 4-1 last 5.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to 49ers, based on “totals” and team trends.


TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans 1-3 vs. line last four away, home team has covered last six Tenn games. Colts have won and covered last three meetings.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on series trends.


PHILADELPHIA at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds only 10-19-1 vs. points in reg season since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.


CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies have covered 5 of last 6 in series, though Cleve 4-6-1 vs. line TY. Steel “under” 9-3 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Browns, based on “totals” and series trends.


TAMPA BAY at JACKSONVILLE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs “over” 10-2 since late 2018. Jags “over” 7-4 in 2019.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


N.Y. JETS at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
J-Men won and covered 3 in a row TY, Cincy 0-4-1 vs. line at home TY, 1-9-1 last 11 vs. spread at Paul Brown, Bengals “under” 10-4-2 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


L.A. RAMS at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cards 5-2 vs. line last 7 TY but that includes L on fluke last play TD by Niners on Nov. 17. Cards “over” 8-4 last 12 since late 2018. Rams have won and covered last 4 meetings (two shutouts vs. pre-Kingsbury Cards). Rams 9-4 vs. line last 13 reg seas after Ravens loss.
Tech Edge: Rams, based on series and “totals” trends.


OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 9-1 SU last 10 in series and have won six straight vs. Raiders at Arrowhead. Also covered 4 of last 6 hosting Oak. Though KC just 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at home in reg season. Gruden 5-1 as dog TY. “Unders” 6-2 last 8 meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.


L.A. CHARGERS at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Road team has won and covered last three meetings. Broncos “under” 16-4 since mid 2018. Bolts “under” 9-3 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Broncos, based on “totals” and team trends.


NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Belichick 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line against Texans last four seasons. Houston 1-4 vs. line at home TY, 2-6 last 8 since late 2018, and “under” 9-4 since late LY. Belichick 8-3 vs. line L11 as visitor. Belichick also “under” 16-4 last 20 reg season.
Tech Edge: Patriots and “under,” based on Belichick and “totals” trends.



Monday, Dec. 2

MINNESOTA at SEATTLE (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Vikes 4-6 vs. line last ten away (3-3 TY), including loss at Hawks last December. Zimmer 3-5 as dog since LY (1-2 TY), and Vikes “over” last 3 away TY. Hawks 1-4 vs. spread at home TY (and needed OT vs. Bucs to get cover), also “over” 10-4 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Vikes, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


COWBOYS VS. THE MAFIA

The Buffalo Bills have faced one team with a winning record this year. Playing the likes of Miami, the New Yorks and Washington hasn’t done them any favors in the power rankings. This Thanksgiving, Josh Allen and boys in blue will head down to Jerry’s World and take on the 6-5 Cowboys.

Dallas loves the play action and sits ninth in the league in PA plays at 27 percent and is getting nine yards per play-action call. The Bills will be up to the challenge as they have the league’s third-best play-action defense. Dallas has played three Top-10 play-action defenses and lost each of those games (Saints, Jets, and Patriots) while not hitting their team total in all three.

Only one team has scored more than 26 points against the Bills this year and Buffalo ranks third in total yards allowed on the road at just over 300. We are taking the Cowboys’ team total Under 26.5, and with the Over currently at -135 that total might slip higher towards game day.


TOOTING TRUBISKY

Do you want to be the talk of Thanksgiving dinner? It all starts with you telling everyone that Mitch Trubisky is a great quarterback all day leading up to the Bears and Lions kickoff at 12:30 pm ET. We all know that Mitchell is a below-average signal caller, but with his career stats versus the Lions, you could look like a genius by tooting the Trubisky horn.

“Mediocre Mitch” has six touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last two games versus the Lions and has averaged 255 yards passing in his four starts against Detroit. That should help his confidence, but also the fact that Matt Patricia’s defense is allowing more passing yards at home than any other team in the league also helps the cause.

Hitting the Over 228.5 Trubisky passing yards prop will get you credibility for the remainder of the football day – and maybe right into Christmas. If you’re really greedy (and deep down, we all are), the Over 1.5 TDs has value at +120.


EASY BREESY

We were tricked about the Atlanta Falcons defense over Weeks 10 and 11. Even though it allowed just 12 points in two games and zero TDs in 10 quarters, Atlanta still gave up 612 yards passing and 63 completions which would put it in dead-last in both of those categories. Jameis Winston and the Bucs proved those two games were anomalies as Tampa Bay passed for 313 yards and put up 35 points.

Drew Brees has averaged 296 passing yards and 31 completions against three Bottom-10 DVOA pass defenses over the last four weeks. We are getting on the Over on Brees’ 26.5 completions - a number he has topped in every game he has finished this year.


ZEKE AND DESTROY

The Bills are 24th in rushing TDs allowed per game this year as they sit 26th in DVOA rush defense. Ezekiel Elliot has just one rushing touchdown in his last four games, so Zeke is due to cross the plane especially with an offensive game plan that should feature the run.

Last year on Thanksgiving, Elliott rushed for 121 yards and scored twice - one rushing and one receiving. He missed the 2017 Thanksgiving Day game but scored four TDs in 2016 - two rushing and two receiving.

We’re putting our money on the Thanksgiving Day money-maker and taking the Over 0.5 Elliott rushing TDs at -104.


TURKEY TIME 6-POINT TEASER

We hit our prime-time six-point teaser last week for +160 and keep things rolling with our holiday version of the three-team, six-point teaser for +160, as well.

Chicago (+3) will face either Jeff Driskel and his injured hamstring or … David Blough. The Bears already have a victory over the Lions in November while the Lions haven’t won by more than four points all year.

Buffalo (+12.5) has had an easy schedule to date with their two most difficult matchups both losses. But QB Josh Allen has traveled well and has his team 4-1 on the road this year with the only blemish a 16-13 loss in Cleveland. It’s tough to get up two TDs versus the Bills’ Top-5 pass defense.

New Orleans (-0.5) has over 1,000 yards of offense over its last three games and will face the Falcons without their No.1 TE and possibly their No.1 WR in Julio Jones. The Falcons were slapped back to reality after getting spanked 35-22 by the Bucs and proving that this is a Bottom-5 defense.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
November 27, 2019
By Joe Williams

It’s time to talk Thanksgiving totals, and we have an interesting trio of games on tap for your holiday viewing pleasure. Two of the three matchups are divisional matchups, as well as rematches, sandwiching a very intriguing AFC vs. NFC battle in the middle window. Through 58 divisional contests played in this year’s regular season, the ’under’ holds a 31-27. In the two earlier divisional matchups featuring Thursday’s combatants, the ‘under’ hit in both of the first installments.

Chicago at Detroit (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)

These teams met back in Week 10 at Soldier Field in Chicago with the Bears posting a 20-13 victory over Detroit. The under (38) never seemed to be threatened in that one despite the fact Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky actually looked like an effective passer in that game. He tossed a season-best three touchdowns passes, easily besting QB Jeff Driskel, who is still filling in for the injured QB Matthew Stafford (back). While Trubisky threw for just 193 yards, his three touchdowns and no interceptions was easily his best ratio in that department, and his 131.0 QB rating was a season high.

The Bears enter this matchup on a 5-0 under run, as the offense continues to look rather slow and methodical, while the defense does its job more often than not. In other words, Chicago Bears football in a nutshell. Since a 25-point outburst, if you can call it that, against the Saints in Week 7, which happened to come after two weeks of studying and a bye, the Bears have posted totals of 16, 14, 20, 7 and 19. The defense was shredded for 36 in that Saints game, and that was by QB Teddy Bridgewater, by the way. Since, they have righted the ship with totals allowed of 17, 22, 13, 17 and 14. Again, Bears football.

There is no reason to believe anything will be different than the first meeting, as the Lions just cannot seem to get out of their own way. They’re coming off of a disappointing 19-16 loss at Washington last week, and many in the Twittersphere are calling for the Ford Family to pull the plug on the Matt Patricia experiment. Others are calling for boycotts of the Lions until they start winning. If that’s the case, Ford Field might be empty for a while.

The Lions had a potent passing attack under Stafford earlier in the season, going for 24 or more points in six of the first eight games, and 27 or more points on five occasions during the span. Since it was discovered Stafford had tiny fractures in his lower back. Driskel has taken over for three games and the results have not been good. While they did hoist up 27 points in a loss to Dallas in Week 11, they had the 13-point effort in Chicago and just the 16 points last week in D.C. The under is 2-1 in Driskel’s three assignments to date. It should be noted that Driskel is dealing with a hamstring injury which limited him in practice both Monday and Tuesday, although Monday’s status was just an estimation. In any event, if he cannot go it would be former Purdue signal called David Blough, engineer of the Ohio State upset last season, getting his first NFL start.

Overall Detroit has posted 378.5 total yards per game to rank ninth in the NFL, but most of that damage was down with a healthy Stafford. They’re just 18th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in points scored (23.6) and tumbling hard. Defensively they are just 29th in the league with 396.2 total yards per game allowed while yielding 275.5 passing yards per contest. They’re also 24th in rushing yards per game yielded at 120.7.

The under is a perfect 6-0 in Chicago’s past six inside the division, and 13-3 in the past 16 games overall. That includes a 5-2 mark in the past seven on the road, too. For Detroit, the over has hit in four straight at home, but the under is 5-1 in the past six inside the NFC North. The under has connected in six of the past eight meetings in this series, too.

This total opened 41 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and it's down to 38 as of Wednesday morning with one-sided action on the under.

Buffalo at Dallas (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The total for this game opened 45 and held steady before slipping ever so briefly to 44.5, but then it rose back to 45.5 and 46. You can likely continue to expect some fluctuation based upon the low-scoring total the Cowboys posted last week in New England, and based upon sensible bettors understanding Dallas was facing the No. 1 defense in the NFL in the rain and slop, and not to discard their offense too much. Statistically and records-wise, this should be the best matchup of the holiday.

The Bills hit the under in each of their first five games this season, and were actually the last NFL team to see an over result cash in 2019. While the over is 3-3 across the past six games for Buffalo since that 5-0 under run, keep in mind that two of their games came against the defensively-challenged Miami Dolphins, as Buffalo averaged 34.0 PPG in those two contests. Take the two Dolphins games out of the equation and the under is 8-1 for Buffalo in 2019.

The Cowboys haven’t beaten a team above .500 all season, going 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread while splitting the over/under in four outings against winning sides. Meanwhile, the Bills have relished the opportunity to go on the road, going 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS while the under has produced a 4-1 mark. Again, the outlier here was a Nov. 17 trip to Miami where they dropped a season-high 37. In their other four roadies the Bills mustered 17, 28, 14 and 16. While coughing up 16, 14, 7 and 19.

Buffalo’s defense has had it on lockdown all season, ranking third in the NFL in total yards allowed (288.6), passing yards allowed (184.3) and points allowed (15.7). Offensively they have managed to rank a very middling 18th in total yards (352.7) on offense, while posting just 213.5 yards per game through the air to rank 24th. In three games against the NFC East the Bills are averaging 21.7 PPG while yielding 18.0 PPG.

Despite a nary nine points last week in the muck at Foxboro, the Cowboys still rank No. 1 in total yards per game (433.4) on offense and No. 1 in passing yards (303.5). They’re also sixth in the league with 26.8 PPG. Defensively they rank seventh with 19.1 PPG allowed. At home, the Pokes have posted 35, 31, 24, 37 and 24, so the Bills defense likely will have its hands full. Defensively, Dallas is allowed 17, 6, 24, 10 and 28 in five home games, a huge array.

For what it’s worth, the last time these teams met it was a 16-6 Dallas victory back on Dec. 27, 2015. Another note, the Cowboys have scored 31 points in their last four wins on Thanksgiving Day but just 6, 14 and 10 points in their losses. The Team Total on the Cowboys for tomorrow is hovering between 26 and 27.

New Orleans at Atlanta (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The oddsmakers are expecting this game to be the highest-scoring battle on the three-game Thanksgiving slate. Of course, they expected that in the first game, too, and the Saints laid an absolute egg. Back in Week 10 the Falcons won outright as 14-point underdogs, shocking New Orleans in a 26-9 stunner. The nine points tied a season low for NOLA, and it marked just the second time the Saints high-octane offense was held out of the end zone this season, and first time with QB Drew Brees under center for an entire game (he left the Week 2 game at L.A. Rams early due to injury).

For the 14th season the NFL features a night game on Thanksgiving Day (can you believe it’s been that long?) and the under has connected in each of the past five seasons, with the low side 9-4 overall. Last season’s Thanksgiving Day game featured a total of 61.5, but these teams never threatened that in a 31-17 win by the Saints under the protection of their dome in the Big Easy.

The loss to the Falcons in Week 10 seems to have served as a wake-up call for the Saints, as they have hit 34 points on offense in each of their past two outings, a pair of ‘over’ results inside the division at Tampa Bay and home to Carolina in a game the Saints probably should have lost 34-31 if the Panthers had a reliable kicker. The over is 3-1 in the four divisional games so far for the Saints, and 3-1 in their past four games on the road, too. The Saints have posted 33, 13, 36 and 34 in their past four away from home.

Atlanta has been a Jekyll & Hyde team, and those type of teams are maddening to bettors. They allowed 28, 20, 27, 24, 53, 34, 37 and 27 through their first eight games. So, naturally, everyone expected the Saints to steamroll them with a cornucopia of offense, but they allowed just nine points on the road. Then, the Falcons topped by stuffing Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers in a 29-3 drumming in Charlotte. Naturally, they’d keep it up at home against turnover-prone Jameis Winston and the Bucs last week. Nah, they were trucked for 35. Who will show up this week?

The total is hovering around 48.5 and 49 points as of Wednesday, depending on the shop, and that’s a little less than the first meeting. That’s likely based on the trends of these teams lately, as well as in this season. The under is 7-0-1 in the past eight appearances for New Orleans on a Thursday, and 9-2 in their past 11 against teams with an overall losing record. The under is 4-1 in Atlanta’s past five, and 3-1-1 in their past five Thursday showings. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 7-3 in the past 10 battles between the Georgia Dome and the Mercedes-Benz Dome in downtown Atlanta.

We've see the under go 7-5 in the night spot on Thursday's this season and that includes a 5-2 mark to the low side in divisional games.

Fearless Predictions

As Chris David has written many times before in previous holiday installments, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end! Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: New Orleans-Atlanta 49
Best Under: Buffalo-Dallas 46
Best Team Total: Under Detroit 18.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105):
Under 53.5 Buffalo-Dallas
Over 41.5 New Orleans-Atlanta
Under 45.5 Chicago-Detroit

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
November 26, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

Bears (-3, 39) at Lions – 12:30 PM EST
These two struggling NFC North squads kick off Week 13 at Ford Field and play on Thanksgiving for the second straight season. Chicago (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) won for the second time in three weeks after holding off the Giants at Soldier Field, 19-14 on Sunday. The Bears failed to cover as six-point favorites as New York scored a late touchdown to get within the number, but Chicago posted 16 third quarter points to erase a 7-3 halftime deficit.

The Bears won in spite of rushing for 65 yards on 26 carries and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky getting intercepted twice. Chicago dropped to 1-6 ATS the last seven games, but the only positive note for the Bears is they have allowed 17 points or less in three consecutive contests, while hitting the UNDER in five straight games. However, the Bears have not won a game away from Soldier Field since a Week 3 blowout of the Redskins, 31-15 as five-point favorites.

The Lions (3-7-1 SU, 4-7 ATS) remain at the bottom of the NFC North after losing their fourth consecutive game in Sunday’s 19-16 setback to the Redskins. Washington picked up only its second win of the season in spite of not scoring an offensive touchdown as the Lions held the Redskins to four field goals and a kickoff return for a score. However, quarterback Jeff Driskel was intercepted three times and Detroit managed to lose even though it rushed for 175 yards.

Detroit lost its fourth straight road game and slipped to 0-3 ATS this season when listed as a favorite. The last time the Lions covered a game came in the Week 6 Monday night setback at Green Bay, 23-22 as 3 ½-point underdogs, as Detroit is riding an 0-6 ATS stretch the previous six weeks. To makes matters worse, the last home cover came in a Week 4 loss to Kansas City, while the only home ATS win for Matt Patricia’s team in a victory occurred in Week 2 against the Chargers.

These division rivals hooked up at Soldier Field in Week 10 as Chicago held off Detroit, 20-13 to barely cash as six-point home favorites. The Lions announced the morning of the game that veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford would not start due to a back injury, opening the door for Driskel to make his sixth career start. Driskel threw for 269 yards and led Detroit to an early 6-0 lead, but Chicago scored the next 20 points to take control of the game.

Chicago has captured the last three meetings with Detroit since the start of last season, including a 23-16 road triumph on Thanksgiving in 2018 as three-point favorites. Trubisky missed that win due to injury as backup Chase Daniel tossed a pair of touchdowns and Chicago overcame 38 yards rushing for the win thanks to a late Eddie Jackson interception return for a score.

Bills at Cowboys (-6 ½, 45) – 4:30 PM EST
Not many people thought going into the season that Buffalo would own two more wins than Dallas heading into their interconference Thanksgiving matchup. But, that’s the case as the Bills (8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) are in a prime position to capture the top Wild Card spot in the AFC after cruising past the Broncos this past Sunday, 20-3. Buffalo easily cashed as 3 ½-point home favorites, while limiting the woeful Denver offense to nine first downs and 134 yards.

The Bills continue to dominate teams with losing records by improving to 7-2 against these struggling squads, although the only victory against a team with a winning record came at Tennessee in Week 5. Buffalo has excelled on the road this season by posting a 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS mark, while allowing 20 points or fewer in all five away contests. The Bills were blown out by the Eagles in Week 8, but Philadelphia is now considered one of those clubs in the losing record category at 5-6. In the only loss against a team with a winning mark, the Bills covered as seven-point home underdogs against the Patriots in a 16-10 setback in Week 4.

Dallas (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) owns the worst record of any division leader as the Cowboys still remain atop the NFC East despite falling short at New England on Sunday, 13-9. The Cowboys managed to cover as 5 ½-point road underdogs to move to 4-1 ATS the last five games. New England held Dallas to three field goals in awful weather at Gillette Stadium, while Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott was limited to his lowest passing output of the season with 212 yards.

The Cowboys fell to 0-5 this season when scoring less than 30 points, while not beating a team that currently owns a winning record (Giants twice, Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles, Giants). Dallas went through an eight-year stretch from 2006 to 2013 posting a 7-1 record on Thanksgiving with the lone loss coming by three points to New Orleans in 2010. However, the Cowboys are 2-3 the last five on Turkey Day, but did knock off the Redskins last seasons, 31-23.

Dallas has lost five of its past seven matchups with AFC foes since 2018, while Buffalo is 3-1 in its previous four affairs with NFC opponents. The Bills defeated the Cowboys in their most recent meeting in 2015 in Buffalo, 16-6 as 6 ½-point favorites. The starting quarterback that day for Dallas was Kellen Moore, who is the team’s current offensive coordinator. Buffalo is making only its third appearance on Thanksgiving Day as the Bills try to improve on an 0-2 mark after losing in their last game back in 1994 at Detroit.

Saints (-7, 49) at Falcons – 8:20 PM EST
For the second time this month, New Orleans and Atlanta hook up as the Saints (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) seek revenge for an ugly 26-9 loss at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Falcons (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) closed as hefty 14-point road underdogs following their bye week (Saints were also off the bye) and were looking to snap a six-game skid. Atlanta did so with a dominating defensive effort as that side of the ball has let the Falcons down all season. The Falcons held the powerful Saints’ attack to 310 yards, while Matt Ryan threw two touchdown passes for Atlanta’s first victory since Week 2 against Philadelphia.

Atlanta’s two-game winning streak came to a crashing halt in last Sunday’s 35-22 home setback to Tampa Bay as 3 ½-point favorites. The Falcons’ defense has struggled all season, but it seemed like they were turning it around after allowing 12 points in road blowouts of the Saints and Panthers. However, Atlanta reverted back to its old ways by yielding 446 yards to a Tampa Bay team that had lost five of its previous six games.

The Saints’ offense topped the 31-point mark for the third time in four games since Drew Brees returned from his thumb injury as New Orleans edged Carolina last Sunday, 34-31. After the Panthers missed a go-ahead chip shot field goal, Brees drove the Saints down the field to set up the game-winning boot from Wil Lutz, but New Orleans failed to cash as 10-point favorites. Brees threw for 311 yards, while tossing three touchdowns for the third time in four games to build a commanding four-game edge over Carolina for first place in the NFC South.

New Orleans continues to have a seesaw effect on defense this season and if the trend stays true, expect another low-scoring output from the opposition. Since allowing 27 points to Seattle in Week 3, the Saints have given up 10, 24, 6, 25, 9, 26, 17, and 31 points, so there have not been consecutive rough defensive performances for Sean Payton’s team.

The Falcons slipped to 0-4 in their last four home games since knocking off the Eagles back in Week 2. In 2017 and 2018, Atlanta was not listed as a home underdog once; this season, Atlanta is received points at Mercedes-Benz Stadium three times and have gone 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in those contests. Since losing to the Rams in Week 2, the Saints have not dropped a game away from the Big Easy by posting a solid 4-0 SU/ATS record in the past four road contests.

These teams hooked up on Thanksgiving night last season in New Orleans as the Saints took care of the Falcons, 31-17 as 11 ½-point home favorites. Brees tossed four touchdown passes on only 15 completions for the Saints, who have lost two of the past three visits to Atlanta dating back to the 2016 season.

[StarDust Bum]

Thanksgiving Day Trends
November 25, 2019
By VI News

The annual NFL Thanksgiving Day slate has arrived and this year’s three-game card will feature a pair of rematches from the 2018 holiday card.

Detroit and Dallas will once again be hosts as they welcome Chicago and Buffalo respectively. In the primetime game, Atlanta and New Orleans will go head-to-head in a divisional clash.

Be sure to check out the latest sports betting trends for all three Thanksgiving Day matchups and the past history.

Trends for Detroit-Chicago
-- After winning four straight games on the holiday from 2013 to 2016, the Lions have dropped their last two games on Thanksgiving Day.

-- Prior to the 4-0 run, the Lions had lost nine straight games on Thanksgiving between 2004 and 2012.

-- Detroit has seen the 'over' go 9-4 in its last 13 games played on Thanksgiving Day.

-- This will be the 10th meeting between Chicago and Detroit on the holiday and it will also be a rematch from last year's Thanksgiving Day matchup.

-- The Lions own a 5-4 record in the first nine holiday encounters.

-- Chicago captured a 23-16 win over Detroit last season, covering as a three-point road favorite while the 'under' (42.5) also connected. In 2014, Detroit doubled-up Chicago with a 34-17 victory.

-- The Bears have gone 4-7 all-time in the Thanksgiving Day afternoon matchups, which includes a 4-5 record versus the Lions and 0-2 against the Cowboys.

Trends for Dallas-Buffalo
-- Dallas owns an all-time 31-19-1 record on Thanksgiving Day.

-- The Cowboys defeated Washington 31-23 last season on the holiday, covering as a seven-point favorite. The 'over' (40) cashed as the pair exploded with 37 points in the second-half.

-- Prior to that win, Dallas had dropped three of its last four games on the holiday and the only wins in the last five years on Thanksgiving have both come against Washington. All three of the losses came by double digits.

-- Dallas has allowed 29.3 points per game in its last seven holiday matchups.

-- Buffalo owns a 0-2 all-time record on the holiday, its last appearance coming in the 1994 season. Both games were against the Lions and the Bills were blown out in each contest (35-21, 27-14).

THANKSGIVING HISTORY - DETROIT
Year Matchup
2018 Chicago 23 Detroit 16
2017 Minnesota 30 Detroit 23
2016 Detroit 16 Minnesota 13
2015 Detroit 45 Philadelphia 14
2014 Detroit 34 Chicago 17
2013 Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
2012 Houston 34 Detroit 31 (OT)
2011 Green Bay 27 Detroit 15
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7

THANKSGIVING HISTORY - DALLAS
Year Matchup
2018 Dallas 31 Washingon 23
2017 L.A. Chargers 28 Dallas 6
2016 Dallas 31 Washington 26
2015 Carolina 33 Dallas 14
2014 Philadelphia 33 Dallas 10
2013 Dallas 31 Oakland 24
2012 Dallas 31 Washington 38
2011 Dallas 20 Miami 19
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21

Trends for New Orleans-Atlanta

-- This will be the 14th season that the NFL will have a night game on Thanksgiving Day. The primetime game began in 2006.

-- Home teams have gone 9-4 straight up during this span.

-- Favorites own a 11-2 straight up and 10-3 against the spread record.

-- Ten of the 13 outcomes have been decided by double digits.

-- The 'under' has gone 9-4 during this span.

-- New Orleans defeated Atlanta 31-17 last season from the Superdome as favorites (-12.5) while the 'under' (61.5) was never in doubt.

-- The Falcons have played in the Thanksgiving night game twice and they're 0-2, both losses coming by double digits.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY - NIGHT GAME (2006-2018)
Year Matchup
2018 New Orleans Saints 31 vs. Atlanta Falcons 17
2017 Washington Redskins 20 vs. New York Giants 10
2016 Pittsburgh Steelers 28 at Indianapolis Colts 7
2015 Chicago Bears 17 at Green Bay Packers 13
2014 Seattle Seahawks 19 at San Francisco 49ers 3
2013 Baltimore Ravens 22 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 20
2012 New England Patriots 49 at New York Jets 19
2011 Baltimore Ravens 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers 6
2010 New York Jets 26 vs. Cincinnati Bengals 10
2009 Denver Broncos 26 vs. New York Giants 6
2008 Philadelphia Eagles 48 vs. Arizona Cardinals 20
2007 Indianapolis Colts 31 at Atlanta Falcons 13
2006 Kansas City Chiefs 19 vs. Denver Broncos 10

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


PRESSURE COOKING

The New Orleans Saints have the best defensive pressure rate in the NFL, creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks at 38 percent. The Saints took down Carolina QB Kyle Allen four times last week and will look to get to Atlanta’s Matt Ryan this week. Ryan’s offensive line is allowing the 24th most pressure to their QB at 31 percent.

"Matty Ice" has been sacked the second-most times over the last two weeks and has been sacked three or more times in half of his games this year. His defense has also had some success getting to Drew Brees. In their previous matchup against the Saints just three weeks ago, the Falcon’s defense took down Mr. Brees six times - the most sacks he has taken since Week 16, 2013.

We are jumping on the Over 4.5 sacks for this Thursday night contest and are 6-2 in our weekly sacks play.


RESEARCH IN COHEN

It’s no secret that the Lions have one of the league’s worst pass defenses as they sit in 24th in DVOA pass defense. But they also are 24th in rushing yards allowed per game and are looking at some key injuries to their interior defensive line.

Three members of the Lions’ defensive line are questionable Thursday. Defensive end Trey Flowers is expected to suit up, but DE Da’Shawn Hand and DT Damon Harrison are truly questionable. This upgrades the Chicago running game and will help our Mitch Trubisky Over prop from yesterday.

David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen have played nearly the exact same snaps over the last three weeks. Montgomery is averaging just 38 yards on 14.6 carries over the last three weeks, including a 17-60-0 versus Detroit three weeks ago. Cohen has been gaining 4.33 yards per carry on his 18 carries since Week 10 but has averaged 5.3 receptions on 6.33 targets for 29 yards and crossed the plane twice over that same stretch.

Looking at the runners’ prop bets, the ones that stand out the most and gives us the best value are Cohen’s reception total of 3.5 (-125) and his Over 19.5 rushing yards (-115). Cohen has topped both those totals in two straight weeks as teammate Montgomery struggles to gain yards.

Take Montgomery’s Over 3.5 receptions and Over 19.5 rushing yards.


DEVIN THINGS DONE

Buffalo’s Devin Singletary has taken over the majority of the Bills’ backfield touches since Week 9, averaging 70 percent of the offensive snaps. The 2019 third-round rookie has rushed for 75 yards or more in three of his last four games while trotting to a 4.97 yards per carry.

The Cowboys rush defense allowed Sony Michel and Dalvin Cook to top 84 yards rushing in the last month and in the other two games, let Daniel Jones and Bo Scarborough rush for over 50 yards. In its last four matches, Dallas has allowed 125 rushing yards per game and the sixth-most yards per rush attempt at home.

At nearly five yards per carry, it could only take Singletary half-a-dozen rushes to pass his modest rushing total of 60.5 rushing yards. Hit the Over and watch what the explosive rookie can do on the big stage.


BRING IN THE KICKING TEAM

The Falcons and the Saints have struggled offensively in the red zone. Both teams sit in the Bottom-eight in red zone TD score percentage over the last three weeks and are Bottom-10 over the course of the season.

Both defenses have also been holding their opponents to field goals inside the 20 as Atlanta has the fourth-best opponents’ red-zone TD score percentage since Week 10 and New Orleans sits 11th.

A field goal has been the first score in each of the last five Falcons’ games while three of the last five Saints’ games has had a field goal as the first score. If you are looking for an early play in Atlanta for the late game Thursday, take a look at the “first score is a field goal” prop that is paying +149.


TALK TO FAMILY OR WATCH THIS GAME

Well, the word is in and that word is David Blough. The Lions will start the undrafted 24-year-old QB against the Bears’ No.6 DVOA defense and we don’t imagine a lot of families will be sitting around the T.V. Thursday afternoon impressed by the Lions’ QB play.

With Blough starting, every Detroit skill player takes a hit and it’s tough to put our money on any Detroit player prop: Blough 183.5; Kenny Galloday 50.5; Marvin Jones 45.5. What we could see is a real stinker of a game as the total has fallen from 41 to 37.

If you’re looking to fade this entire game here is a shortlist of ideas:

• Alternative total: Under 28 +300
• Total touchdowns scored: Under 3.5 +110
• Longest TD scored: Under 35.5 -120
• Bears winning by: 1-6 points +260
• Total field goals scored: Under 2.5 +150

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at DET 12:30 PM
DET +5.5
O 37.0

BUF at DAL 04:30 PM
DAL -6.5
U 47.0

NO at ATL 08:20 PM
NO -7.0
O 48.5

[StarDust Bum]

Bears rally past Lions 24-20, 'over' hits
November 28, 2019

DETROIT (AP) Mitchell Trubisky started and closed strong to overcome some shaky decisions and plays in between to keep the Chicago Bears in the NFC playoff picture.

Trubisky threw a go-ahead, 3-yard touchdown pass to David Montgomery with 2:17 left, lifting Chicago to a 24-20 win over the slumping Detroit Lions on Thursday.

The Bears took the lead on the nine-play, 90-yard drive in which Trubisky converted a pair of third downs with 35- and 32-yard passes Anthony Miller.

''He made special throws at special times,'' coach Matt Nagy said.

Chicago sealed the victory on the ensuing possession with Eddie Jackson's interception.

Rookie quarterback David Blough led Detroit's last drive to the Chicago 26 in the final minute before losing 13 yards on a sack to leave a desperation pass as the only option and Jackson picked off his heave.

The Bears (6-6) have won three of four games after losing four in a row, keeping their postseason hopes alive.

''We put ourselves in a good position to have another big game next week,'' Trubisky said.

The Lions (3-8-1) have lost five straight for the first time under second-year coach Matt Patricia.

''It's one of the toughest teams I've probably ever been around,'' said Patricia, a former assistant coach with the New England Patriots. ''This team fights like probably no other team I've ever seen.

''We've got to find a way to win.''

Detroit led for much of the game despite starting a quarterback it acquired from Cleveland for a swap of seventh-round picks after training camp.

''Watch that team fight and rally behind somebody like that, I think you can tell how much all those men in that room care about each other,'' Patricia said.

Matthew Stafford was out for a fourth straight game with back and hip injuries and his backup, Jeff Driskel, was limited by a hamstring injury.

Blough, an undrafted player from Purdue, threw a 75-yard TD on his first completion to Kenny Golladay to pull the Lions into a 7-all tie. Blough threw an 8-yard TD pass to Marvin Jones late in the first quarter to put Detroit ahead 14-7.

Trubisky had an 18-yard TD pass to rookie tight end Jesper Horsted to make it 17-all late in the third quarter.

Trubisky finished 29 of 38 with three TDs, matching a season high he also equaled in a win over Detroit earlier this month, for 338 yards and an interception. He got off to a strong start with a 10-yard pass to Allen Robinson and closed the game well enough for Chicago to score more than 20 points for the first time in more than a month.

Blough was 22 of 38 for 280 yards with two TDs and an interception.

''This is what you dream about as a kid,'' Blough said. ''I'm thankful for it all, all the ups and downs.''

TRIPPED UP

Chicago cornerback Kyle Fuller may have prevented Detroit from scoring a tiebreaking TD early in the fourth quarter when he stopped J.D. McKissic in the open field on third-and-1.

''Probably one of the biggest plays in the game,'' Nagy said. ''To make a shoestring tackle was an absolute game-changer.''

Patricia choose to kick a 24-yard field goal for a 20-17 lead with 10:47 left instead of going for it on fourth-and-1 from the Bears 5.

FLAG DAY

Chicago had 10 penalties for 89 yards and Detroit was flagged nine times for 85 yards.

''If there's a negative to the game, the improvement we need to make is with penalties,'' Nagy said.

SHOW GOES ON

Brothers Osborne, a country music duo, performed at halftime and the show did not go as planned. Fans were asked to turn on the flashlights on their mobile phones when the lights were turned off at Ford Field. After the lights dimmed, the indoor stadium was illuminated again before going dark following an awkward delay.

The technical difficulties led to the musical artists being on the field longer than expected, forcing players to warm up behind and around an elaborate stage.

Ford Field officials said in a statement that ''parts of the stadium lost power due to an outside utility failure. Though it was quickly restored, the sound system transmitter required two minutes to reset and reconnect.''

INJURIES

Bears: CB Prince Amukamara went down and walked off the field slowly late in the game after breaking up a pass. Four starters WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion), TE Adam Shaheen (foot), OT Bobby Massie (ankle) and LB Danny Trevathan (elbow) were inactive.

Lions: DT Damon ''Snacks'' Harrison (knee, calf), CB Rashaan Melvin (ribs) and return specialist Jamal Agnew (ankle) were inactive.

UP NEXT

Bears: Host Dallas on Thursday, Dec. 5.

Lions: Play at Minnesota on Dec. 8.

[StarDust Bum]

Bills beat Cowboys 26-15 for 3rd straight victory
November 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) John Brown became the first Buffalo receiver to throw a touchdown pass and the Bills went on to beat the Dallas Cowboys 26-15 on Thursday.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen ran for a touchdown and threw a scoring pass to Cole Beasley, who had 110 yards receiving and a touchdown in his first game against his former team. The Bills (9-3) got their first Thanksgiving win since 1975 in their first appearance on the holiday in 25 years.

The Cowboys (6-6) stumbled after scoring a touchdown on their opening drive, giving Philadelphia a chance to rejoin them atop the NFC East after their fourth double-digit loss in the past six Thanksgivings.

A lackluster showing for Dallas' sixth loss in nine games came four days after owner Jerry Jones blasted the coaching staff following a loss to New England.

Allen was 19 of 24 for 231 yards and a career-best 120.7 passer rating as the Bills won their third straight game and solidified their hold on an AFC wild-card spot.

The second-year quarterback found the ball at the bottom of a pile after fumbling a snap on fourth-and-1, quickly reached the ball over the first down spot and then stumbled forward 3 yards to the Dallas 28.

On the next play, Brown took a pitch on a double reverse and lofted the ball to wide-open running back Devin Singletary for Buffalo's first lead at 13-7 in the second quarter.

SAINTS 26, FALCONS 18

ATLANTA (AP) - Taysom Hill blocked a punt to set up his 3-yard touchdown catch, later scored on a 30-yard run and New Orleans beat Atlanta to clinch its third straight NFC South title.

With Julio Jones inactive due to a shoulder injury, the Falcons had too little offense to keep pace with Drew Brees and the Saints. Atlanta recovered two onside kicks in the closing minutes, including one with 1:54 remaining, to make things interesting.

Matt Ryan was sacked by Cameron Jordan on a fourth-down play from the New Orleans 44 with 38 seconds remaining. Ryan was sacked nine times, including four by Jordan.

The Saints (10-2) atoned for their 26-9 home loss to the Falcons on Nov. 10. The Falcons (3-9) solidified their hold on last place in the division with their second straight home loss.

The versatile Hill blocked Ryan Allen's punt to end Atlanta's first possession. The Saints took over at the Falcons 30, and four plays later Hill scored his first touchdown on the short pass from Brees. Hill took a direct snap and ran 30 yards to give New Orleans a 17-6 lead late in the first half.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 1, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM New York Jets Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Philadelphia Eagles Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers New York Giants
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers
4:05 PM Los Angeles Rams Arizona Cardinals
4:25 PM Oakland Raiders Kansas City Chiefs
4:25 PM Los Angeles Chargers Denver Broncos
8:20 PM New England Patriots Houston Texans

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Monday, December 2, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks


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NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/28/2019............4-2-0..........66.67%.........+9.00
11/25/2019.............1-1-0.........50.00%..........-0.50
11/24/2019...........8-16-0..........33.33%........-48.00
11/21/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%..........-0.50
11/18/2019.............2-0-0........100.00%........+10.00
11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

Totals...................44-58-1.........43.13%..........-104.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/28/2019..............2 - 1...........+4.50............2 - 1................+4.50.............+9.00
11/25/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00............0 - 1...............-5.50...............-0.50
11/24/2019..............4 - 4...........-2.00..............2 - 9..............-38.50..............-40.50
11/21/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/18/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+10.00
11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


Totals.....................20 - 22..........-21.00..........17 - 30..............-89.00.............-110.00


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NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00