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Betting Recap - Week 16
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 16 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 7-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-9

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 134-82-1
Against the Spread 106-121-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 127-107-1
Against the Spread 100-127-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 115-119-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Cardinals (+8, ML +350) at Seahawks, 27-13
Raiders (+7.5. ML +280) at Chargers, 24-17
Jets (+3, ML +155) vs. Steelers, 16-10
Eagles (+2.5, ML +120) vs. Cowboys, 17-9

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-10) at Browns, 31-15
Broncos (-8) vs. Lions, 27-17
Falcons (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 24-12
Chiefs (-7) at Bears, 26-3
Colts (-7) vs. Panthers, 38-6
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Bills, 24-17

The Art of Falconry

-- The Atlanta Falcons were just 1-7 SU heading into their Week 9 bye, and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that head coach Dan Quinn would be fired, and that there would be some major staff and personnel changes. The Falcons banded together in Week 10 and pulled off a stunner, winning 26-9 at 13.5-point underdogs in New Orleans on Nov. 10, and that kicked off a 5-2 SU run to get back to 6-9 SU heading into the Week 17 finale at Tampa Bay.

For the Falcons, they have showed no quit, and their defensive line play has been brutal - to opposing quarterbacks - in the second half. As mentioned, they face the Bucs in Week 17 at Raymond James Stadium, as the revenge tour continues. Bettors are finding the Falcons to be a tremendous value lately. They started out 1-6 ATS in the first seven games, but they're 6-2 ATS across the past eight contests. That includes a 3-0 ATS run on the road, which makes them worth watching heading into the RayJay on Sunday. The Falcons are 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight trips to Tampa, while the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The 'over' is also 6-1 in the previous seven.

Total Recall

-- There were two games with a total of 50 or greater -- Houston Texans-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5) and Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks (51) each ended up going under.

The Saturday game between the Texans and Bucs never materialized into a shootout. Well, it started out that way, as the teams combined for 34 points in the first half, but they totaled just three field goals in the final 30 minutes. It's like someone turned off the offensive spigot.

In the game with the highest total on the board, one of the starting quarterbacks was lost to injury. So that's understandable why the game ended up going under - although it's not the quarterback you'd think. QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) left the game early in the second half due to injury, but the Cards offense didn't skip a beat. They kept their foot on the gas, as supposed MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson didn't do much of anything on offense. The Seahawks had two scoreless quarters, and they managed a total of just 13 points on their home turf. The two games with a total of 49 -- Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints-Tennessee Titans -- ended up splitting. The Ravens did their part, but the Browns managed just 15 points after hanging a 40-burger on Balto. earlier this season. The Saints and Titans combined by 66 points in the third-highest scoring game of the weekend.

The Pittsburgh Steelers-New York Jets (36.5) was easily the lowest score on the board, and it never came close to hitting 'over'. The Steelers and Jets were tied 10-10 at halftime, but Pittsburgh's passing offense tossed up a bunch of 'ducks', and they were unable to score in the final 30 minutes. The Jets didn't do much better, scratching out just two field goals, but they ended up falling 16-10 to old buddy RB Le'Veon Bell and the Jets in a costly loss.

The Sunday nighter between the Kansas City Chiefs-Chicago Bears (45.5) hit the 'under', now 13-4 on the season. We have one more night game Monday between the Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings (47) still pending. The 'over' is just 17-30 (36.2%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead to Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings, but 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to Arrowhead. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the past meetings.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in the past seven trips to Foxboro, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings, and the home team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 in this series.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The Saints are 0-4 ATS in the past four in this series, but 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Charlotte. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven, with the underdog 10-1 ATS in the previous 11 meetings.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

The home team has cashed in six of the past eight meetings in this series. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Minnesota.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

The favorite has cashed in eight of the past nine meetings in this series, while the Browns are 2-8 ATS in the past 10 in the series. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings, and 6-2 in the past eight battles in Cincinnati.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

The Jets are 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to Buffalo, with the underdog 20-8 ATS in the past 28 meetings in this series.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

The Packers are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings, with the favorite 19-7 ATS in the past 26 in this series. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings, with the over 4-0 in the past four at Ford Field.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

The Redskins are 9-3 ATS in the past 12 trips to Dallas, with the road team 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings. The underdog is also 27-12 ATS in the past 39. The over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings, including 4-0 in the past four in Dallas.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings in L.A., with the favorite 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five in SoCal, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, but 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings in New Jersey. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall, and a perfect 7-0 in the past seven meetings in New Jersey.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

The Titans are 0-5 ATS in the past five trips to Houston, and 4-12 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The over is also 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Houston.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts are a dismal 0-4 ATS in the past four trips to Jacksonville, and 1-7-1 ATS in the past nine meetings overall. The under is also 12-5 in the past 17 meetings in this series.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Raiders are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, but the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 in the series and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven. The under is also 6-0 in the past six in this series, and 4-0 in the past four in Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the underdog 4-0 ATS in the past four. The under is also 5-0 in the past five battles in Baltimore.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers are 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in Seattle, while going 3-12-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The over is also 6-2 in the past eight in this series.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 17 opening odds and early action: Favored 49ers draw money for big clash vs Seahawks
Patrick Everson

It’s on to Week 17 in the NFL, with all 16 games on Sunday, and there’s plenty at stake in terms of the playoff field and seeding. We check in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

The final Sunday nighter of the regular season is a dandy, in which San Francisco will either remain the NFC’s No. 1 seed or drop to No. 5. The 49ers (12-3 SU, 8-6-1 ATS), who in Week 15 tumbled from first to fifth, got back to No. 1 in Week 16 by topping the Los Angeles Rams 34-31 as 7-point home faves.

Seattle pulled a San Francisco in Week 16, dropping from the NFC’s top seed to No. 5 with an unexpected toe-stubbing at home. The Seahawks (11-4 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) went off as 8-point favorites against Arizona and were dealt a 27-13 outright loss to relinquish the NFC West lead.

In Week 10, the Seahawks beat the Niners 27-24 in overtime getting 6.5 points on the road.

“We opened the 49ers -2.5 (-120) and are now up to -3,” Murray said. “Seattle is very banged up. This one is pretty straightforward. Both teams want the game. We just don’t think Seattle is healthy enough to deal with this 49ers team.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Pittsburgh was in the playoff field prior to Sunday, but not afterward in losing control of its playoff destiny, though there are still multiple ways for the No. 7 seed to move back in. The Steelers (8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS) had a sluggish effort against the New York Jets, losing 16-10 as 3-point road favorites.

Meanwhile, Baltimore has nothing to play for, with home-field advantage wrapped up throughout the AFC playoffs, thanks to its 11-game SU win streak (8-3 ATS). The Ravens (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) beat Cleveland 31-15 as 9.5-point road favorites.

“This was the hardest number to set,” Murray said. “The Ravens have home field clinched, and the Steelers have to win to have a shot to get in. Will the Ravens bench all of their starters? Or will they want the guys to get some reps with a bye coming the next week? We will be watching Twitter on this one.”

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+4.5)

Houston has the AFC South and a playoff bid wrapped up, and it’s now just a matter of whether Bill O’Brien’s squad will be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, as it sits fourth right now. The Texans (10-5 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) edged Tampa Bay 23-20 laying 3 points in Week 16.

For Tennessee, it’s a pretty simple matter: win and go to the playoffs as a wild card, lose and hit the golf course. The Titans (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) got out to a 14-0 lead against New Orleans on Sunday, but gave up the next 24 points in a 38-28 loss catching 3.5 points at home.

“Houston is in as the AFC South winner. If the Titans win, they will likely play at Kansas City in the wild-card round,” Murray said. “This line is with an expectation that DeShaun Watson won’t play for the Texans.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+6)

Philadelphia is in complete control of its playoff destiny, with a win-and-your-in scenario in Week 17. That’s because the Eagles (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) stifled rival Dallas 17-9 as 2-point home pups Sunday, taking a one-game lead over the Cowboys in the NFC East.

New York can potentially play the role of monster spoiler, provided it wins this week and Dallas beats visiting Washington. The Giants (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) have back-to-back victories for just the second time all season, after beating the Redskins 41-35 in overtime as 1-point home faves to cash for the fourth time in five weeks.

“We opened it Eagles -6 and are now at -5,” Murray said. “The Eagles win the division with a win here, but we don’t expect the Giants to go quietly. Philly was lucky to beat them two weeks ago and lucky to beat Washington last week. The Eagles are hardly world beaters.”


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Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 17 odds: Take your time with the Texans
Jason Logan

The Houston Texans will be watching the Kansas City Chiefs closely before their late-afternoon kickoff against the Tennessee Titans in Week 17 of the NFL season.

NFL Week 17 is an odd week of action to handicap. Motivation and preparation come into play, with some teams looking ahead to the offseason and others planning for the postseason. That could mean rest for starters or going all out to better their playoff positioning.

Expect some wild line movement the closer we get to kickoff on Sunday (so get your Covers Live App alerts ready). To help you stay ahead of the moves, Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you his best Bet Now/Bet Later lines for Week 17: because it’s not always about betting the best team, but rather betting the best number.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

This NFC West finale was flexed to the Sunday night game due to it being the linchpin of the conference playoff pecking order. With a win, San Francisco is the top seed in the NFC and will hold home field through to the conference title game.

Seattle, on the other hand, can finish anywhere from No. 1 to No. 3 (depending on the outcome of Packers and Saints’ games) as long as it beats the Niners. However, that may be easier said than done after the Seahawks were roughed up in Sunday’s loss to Arizona. Running backs Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise were lost for the season, piling on the problems for a roster that was already hurting on both sides of the ball.

This spread opened as low as San Francisco -2 and has already jump a full point to a field goal. Early action is on the 49ers and has books trimming the vig on Seattle +3, trying to entice some action on the wounded underdog. If you like the Niners here, get them -3 before you have to deal with that nasty half-point hook.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: TENNESSEE TITANS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (+4.5)

This spread already indicates that the Texans are planning to lay down in Week 17, with the AFC South locked up and the Titans trying to win the No. 6 spot. However, everything is not set in stone for Houston. It could jump from the No. 4 spot to the No. 3 spot if Kansas City loses to the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday.

Here’s the hook: the Chiefs host the Chargers at 1 p.m. ET while the Texans don’t face the Titans until 4:25 p.m. ET. Houston will be scoreboard watching and if the Chiefs do start running it up on the Bolts, you can expect to see this Tennessee-Houston spread climb as well before kickoff.

If you’re hunting for value with home dogs in Week 17 (A.J. McCarron is the Texans backup QB, BTW), wait it out and see how that Kansas City-Los Angeles game shakes down. A Chiefs win and Tennessee going all out will puff this pointspread up like it just had seconds of Xmas dinner.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 48 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Saints have plenty to play for in Week 17 and a win over Carolina can set the table for New Orleans to jump as high as No. 1 in the NFC playoff standings – given the other games involved trickle down in its favor.

With the way the Saints are scoring right now, they might be able to top this total all by themselves. New Orleans is averaging more than 39 points per game over its last three and with the spread for this one teetering on two touchdowns, bookies expect NOLA to light up the scoreboard.

Carolina has hemorrhaged points in recent weeks, allowing its last three foes to total 108 combined points. The Panthers are in audition mode in Week 17, kicking the tires not only on their young QBs but all players. Don't be surprised to see some life from Carolina, which won’t need to score much to get this one Over the number.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 42.5 OAKLAND RAIDERS AT DENVER BRONCOS

The Raiders have a chance of making the playoffs if everything breaks their way in Week 17. Oakland needs to beat the Broncos but also have the Titans, Steelers and Jaguars fall in their respective finales. Honestly, it’s not the wildest scenario. That motivation is inspiring some action on the Over, moving this total from as low as 41 to 42.5.

The Raiders gave fans a victory in L.A. this past Sunday – a crowd loaded with Silver and Black – and now play their second straight road tilt in the high altitude of Denver, where game-time temperatures will cool off around freezing Sunday. Oakland is averaging just 15 points over its last six games, staying Under the total in five of those contests.

Denver has remained sound defensively despite having little to play for, with an average of 20.8 points against over its last five outings. The Broncos will continue to interview rookie QB Drew Lock and would relish any chance to play postseason spoiler to their AFC West rival. These divisional foes have paid out to the Under in six straight meetings and anyone who likes the Under this Sunday should wait it out and get some added points on this total.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 23
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at MIN 08:15 PM

MIN -5.5

U 47.0

[Udog]

NFL Betting Stats - Monday, Dec 23:

Road Teams: 131-100-8 ATS
Home Teams: 100-131-8 ATS

Favorites: 107-124-8 ATS
Underdogs: 124-107-8 ATS

Home Faves: 59-83-6 ATS
Home Dogs: 41-48-2 ATS

Road Faves: 48-41-2 ATS
Road Dogs: 83-59-6 ATS

O/U: 116-123


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MNF - Packers at Vikings
Tony Mejia

Green Bay at Minnesota (-5, 47), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

The Vikings don’t have the pressure of missing the playoffs weighing them down as they take the field for this Monday night showdown with the Packers.

They’re safely in already and set to finish as the No. 5 seed or No. 6 seed. In order to win the NFC North, Minnesota would need to win here and then get help from lowly Detroit against Green Bay. Even at home, the Lions would have a difficult time containing Aaron Rodgers indoors considering their ghastly pass defense. If the Packers lose in Week 17 and the Saints fall in Carolina, Minnesota could finish as high as No. 2.

That elf on your shelf could also come to life and ask where he can get in on some Monday night props, but that’s probably not going to happen either.

In other words, this is somewhat of a freeroll for the Vikings. Win and they’ve got a great shot at the No. 5 seed, setting up a playoff rematch of the 2017 NFC Championship in Philadelphia. Lose and they’ll end up a larger underdog somewhere else. It wouldn’t be as ideal but they would at least have a seat at the table.

That makes this more of a perfect opportunity for Minnesota to get Kirk Cousins some much-needed big-game confidence than it is a burden you might normally see in Week 16. This isn’t do-or-die.

What’s really on the line here? It probably would be nice to have a chance to finish the season at U.S. Bank Stadium undefeated for the first time. The Vikings enter this one 23-7 straight up at home since the new building opened in 2016 and had a 7-1 mark there in ’17, so there’s a chance to make some history.

Beating the Packers would be nice too.

Green Bay has never won in Minnesota’s new home, coming in 0-3.

The Vikings were 1-9-1 over an 11-game stretch against Green Bay between 2010 and 2015 before finally winning the ‘15 regular-season finale to claim the NFC North that season, ultimately losing on Wild Card weekend when Blair Walsh missed that chip-shot. Their win over the Pack at Lambeau was their first over Rodgers under head coach Mike Zimmer and started a run that had seen them come into the season on a 5-1-1 spurt in the series.

Minnesota isn’t trying to go backwards by being swept again but the season will go on if it does.

Cousins wants to snap his remarkable 0-8 record on Monday nights that is used as an indictment of him being overpaid. That reputation won’t be erased until he wins a playoff game but he’s at least led the Vikings there after missing out after signing a three-year, $84 million deal prior to the start of last season. His QBR ranks third in the NFC, ahead of even Rodgers, but only the Green Bay quarterback got a Pro Bowl nod.

Cousins has thrown for 10 touchdowns against just one interception at home this season, compiling a passer rating of 126.0.

It absolutely would be nice to hold serve in a favorite’s role, so maybe the fact there isn’t any real pressure on this one will allow them to do just that. The NFL’s seventh-leading rusher, All-Pro Dalvin Cook, will be resting an ailing shoulder, which is another example of the Vikings looking ahead and treating this one as just another game. Despite the announcement that second-year back Mike Boone and rookie Alexander Mattison would get the carries in place of Cook, the number barely budged.

Despite this being Cousins vs. Rodgers, the Vikings are favored by more than most would probably have expected. In fact, the line opened at 4 and was been bet up to 5.5 points before coming down in some spots. More on that below. 1

Reverse line movement would be one reason to bet against Rodgers in a game where the Packers actually need the game more. If Green Bay pulls off an upset in Minneapolis and wins at Detroit, they have a shot at a first-round bye. Rodgers hasn’t had his most prolific season, but he’s still on pace to top 4,000 passing yards and has 24 TD passes against just two interceptions after sporting a 25/2 TD/INT ratio a season ago.

Aaron Jones is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns with 14 and ranks second behind Panthers’ star Christian McCaffrey with 17 total scores. Top receiver Davante Adams comes off his fourth 100-yard game of the season and first since Nov. 10. He’s found the end zone four times over the last four games and is clearly over the nagging turf toe injury that compromised most of his season. His 39 TD receptions since the beginning of 2016 leads the NFL.

The Vikings have seen WR Stefon Diggs score in six straight games against Green Bay, while Adam Thielen has made 48 catches and scored four times in his last six games against the Packers. He’s healthy again after a hamstring injury stunted his momentum in October. With Cook sidelined, Minnesota may choose to air it out more against a Packers’ defense that ranks 22nd against the pass. For that reason, riding any props with Diggs or Thielen is advisable here.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 46 on this matchup and as of Monday morning, the total has moved up to 47 at most sportsbooks. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on the final MNF contest of the season.

“This isn’t an easy game to handicap since both clubs have clinched playoff berths and even if Minnesota wins, the odds of taking the division will come down to Detroit beating Green Bay at home next week as a heavy underdog,” said David. “I don’t see that happening and it appears that the Vikings are going to be the fifth or sixth seed in the playoffs, possibly a 12-win team too and that’s crazy but parity has been thrown out the window in the NFL this season.

“This series has watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 the last 10 meetings and that includes the result in Week 2 at Lambeau Field. The total on that game was 43 and the rematch has been juiced up, which sets off some alarms for me but the Packers enter this game on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ and the offense has been very pedestrian (19.6 PPG) during this span. Expecting the attack to bust out against Minnesota seems foolish knowing the Vikings are ranked second in scoring defense (14.2 PPG) at home this season. Make a note that Minnesota has only faced one winning team at home, and it blasted Philadelphia 38-20 in Week 6. I expect a Vikings victory and if that happens, the defense should carry them. With that being said, I’d lean to the Packers Team Total Under (20 ½) here.”

Green Bay has watched the ‘under’ go 8-6 this season, which includes a 3-3 mark outside of Wisconsin. The offense has been inconsistent, looking great at Kansas City (31) and Dallas (34) but also embarrassing efforts at San Francisco (8) and the L.A. Chargers (11) cannot be forgotten. The Packers have scored 17, 10 and 14 points in their last three trips to Minnesota.

In David’s weekly total segment on the VI “Bet and Collect” podcast, he often hits on seasonal angles and total systems that have produced profits and this game hits on one popular angle. Listen to the podcast here.

LINE MOVEMENT

Green Bay Packers
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 9/4 to 1/9
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 14/1

Minnesota Vikings
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -125, Under +105)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 2/1 to 6/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 9/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 20/1

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"A sharp player laid 4 and 4.5 with the Vikings so we sat at 5.5 where we finally saw a little resistance to the Vikings" said Berg, whose terrific observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "Nothing had come in to get us to come down again but a sharp guy took the 5.5 late Sunday. We have sharp support both ways now."

INJURY CONCERNS

With Cook sidelined, all eyes turn to Boone and Mattison. The latter, a rookie from Boise State who has been impressive when he’s gotten carries, is dealing with an ankle injury that kept him out at the beginning of the week. He was limited in participating on Saturday and carries a ‘questionable’ tag. Minnesota’s offense is in fantastic shape otherwise. Defensively, DT Linval Joseph (knee), DT Shamar Stephen (knee), corner Xavier Rhodes (ankle) and safety Jayvon Kearse (toe) are all expected to play.

The Packers have only ruled out backup tackle Josh Nijaman (triceps). Starting tackle Bryan Bulaga, often the key to that offensive line, is good to go. Reserve lineman Alex Light (illness) should be available, as should tight ends Jimmy Graham (wrist/groin) and Marcedes Lewis. Linebacker Blake Martinez, whose 140 tackles lead the NFL, is good to go despite calf and hand ailments. Corners Kevin King and Tramon Williams are also set to participate.

RECENT MEETINGS
(Packers 13-6-2 SU, 11-8 ATS last 19, UNDER 10-9)

9/15/19 Packers 21-16 vs. Vikings (GB -3, 43)
11/25/18 Vikings 24-17 vs. Packers (MIN -3.5, 48)
9/16/18 Vikings 29-29 OT at Packers (GB +2, 45)
12/23/17 Vikings 16-0 at Packers (MIN -8.5, 41)
10/15/17 Vikings 23-10 vs. Packers (MIN +3, 46)
12/24/16 Packers 38-25 vs. Vikings (GB -6, 44.5)
9/18/16 Vikings 17-14 vs. Packers (MIN +1.5, 43)
1/3/16 Vikings 20-13 at Packers (MIN +3, 45.5)
11/22/15 Packers 30-13 at Vikings (GB +1, 44)
11/23/14 Packers 24-21 at Vikings (MIN +7.5, 50)
10/2/14 Packers 42-10 vs. Vikings (GB -7.5, 47.5)
11/24/13 Packers 26-26 OT vs. Vikings (MIN +5.5, 44.5)
10/27/13 Packers 44-31 at Vikings (GB -7.5, 47.5)
12/30/12 Vikings 37-34 vs. Packers (GB -3, 46)
12/2/12 Packers 23-14 vs. Vikings (GB -7.5, 47)
11/14/11 Packers 45-7 vs. Vikings (GB -13, 50)
10/23/11 Packers 33-27 at Vikings (MIN +11, 47)
11/21/10 Packers 31-3 at Vikings (GB -3, 45)
10/24/10 Packers 28-24 vs. Vikings (GB -2.5, 44.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 17 currently has the Packers as an 10-point home favorite over the Lions despite being on the road. The Vikes welcome in the Bears and have been installed as a 7-point favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Packers clinch NFC North with 23-10 win over Vikings
December 23, 2019

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Aaron Jones rushed for 154 yards and two second-half touchdowns, Za'Darius Smith had five tackles for loss to lead a stifling performance Green Bay's defense, and the Packers became NFC North champions by beating the Minnesota Vikings 23-10 on Monday night.

The Packers (12-3) made Matt LaFleur the 10th rookie coach in NFL history to reach 12 victories, winning for the first time in four tries at Minnesota's deafening U.S. Bank Stadium with a dominant finish after trailing 10-9 at halftime. Green Bay stayed in position for a first-round bye in the playoffs with the top seed and home-field advantage until the Super Bowl still in sight.

The Packers stormed back from three first-half turnovers, including a rare interception by Aaron Rodgers, to seal the Vikings (10-5) into the sixth playoff seed. Kirk Cousins was sacked five times, with a whopping 3 1/2 by Smith, and he threw an interception in the third quarter that set up the first score by Jones. Cousins fell to 0-9 in his career in Monday night games.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 17

Sunday, December 29, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM New York Jets Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions
1:00 PM Los Angeles Chargers Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins New England Patriots
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens
4:25 PM Washington Redskins Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM Tennessee Titans Houston Texans
4:25 PM Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars
4:25 PM Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants
4:25 PM Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos
4:25 PM Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Rams
8:20 PM San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks


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nfl december opinions and best bets: All based on 5 units

date........................... W-l-t............ %................ Units

12/23/2019...................1-1-0........50.00%.............-0.50
12/22/2019.................9-15-0.........37.50%...........-37.50
12/21/2019...................1-4-1.........25.00%...........-17.00
12/16/2019...................2-0-0........100.00%..........+10.00
12/15/2019.................9-18-1..........33.33%...........-54.00
12/12/2019...................2-0-0.........100.00%.........+10.00
12/09/2019...................1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
12/08/2019................12-12-2..........50.00%..........-6.00
12/01/2019..................7-10-1..........41.18%..........-20.00

totals.........................44-61-5..........41.90%..........-78.00


best bets:

Date........................ats.............units. ............o/u...............units.............totals


12/23/2019...............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0.............+5.00..............-0.50
12/22/2019...............2 - 6............-23.00..............6 - 5.............+2.50..............-20.50
12/21/2019...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 2.............-6.00...............-11.50
12/16/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/15/2019...............1 - 8.............-39.00.............5 - 6..............-8.00...............-47.00
12/12/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/09/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.50..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
12/08/2019...............6 - 3.............+13.50............4 - 4..............-2.00...............+11.50
12/01/2019...............6 - 6..............-3.00..............1 - 4..............-17.00..............-20.00

totals.......................17 - 25..........-47.00.............20 - 22..........-21.00...............-68.00

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Too early over/under win totals for baseball in 2020:

— New York (A) 101.5

— Dodgers 99.5

— Astros 97

— Braves/Nationals 92

— Twins 90.5

— New York (N) 86.5

Quote of the Day:
“I don’t think they should be doing (top 25) polls this year until March. I’m serious, I mean, it’s just an effort in futility at this point.”
Mark Few

Tuesday’s quiz
Who hit the most home runs ever, out of all the players who played for only one team in their career?

Monday’s quiz
Rams have played in four Super Bowls, under four different head coaches; Sean McVay, Mike Martz, Dick Vermeil, Ray Malavasi

Sunday’s quiz
Houston Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson played his college football at Clemson.


**********************


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) Last six years, only teams in the Super Bowl were #1 and #2 seeds, teams that got first-round byes in the playoffs. Getting a bye is really helpful.

Before that though, from 2010-12, Super Bowl winners were #6-4-4 seeds, with Baltimore Ravens the last #4 sed to win a Super Bowl.

12) Social media can be incredibly annoying; our society is so fickle, everyone who loses should be fired, everyone who wins is the greatest ever, at least until their next loss.

Rams didn’t make the playoffs this year; they’re 8-7, a disappointing year. Rats are jumping off the ship left and right, “fans” demanding changes be made before next season.

I can guarantee you this; the Rams will LOOK different next year. How do I know this? They’re getting new uniforms, to coincide with the opening of their new domed stadium.

11) Social media is also funny sometimes; a debate erupted the other day on Twitter about how some people put gas in their car while the motor is still running. Never heard of that before.

Apparently it is a thing in really cold places like Alaska, but supposedly it is dangerous and is not advised. Decent amount of people said they did it, though, and they all lived to tell about it.

10) Toronto Blue Jays gave P Hyun-jin Ryu $80M for four years.

9) Washington 72, Hawai’i 61— Hawai’i went 9-39 on the arc; one kid was 1-17— can you imagine a kid having that bright a green light to shoot, then going 1-17? Washington plays Houston Wednesday night in the finals of the Diamond Head tourney.

8) CBS won’t be televising SEC football anymore; they backed out of the bidding for a new contract. Sounds like ESPN/ABC will carry the SEC now.

7) Are the Dolphins going to bring 37-year old QB Ryan Fitzpatrick next year? Miami split its last eight games after an 0-7 start, screwing up their draft position. Where do they go from here?

Fitzpatrick and Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton both wear wedding rings while they play football. which surprised me.

6) Tennessee point guard Lamonte Turner’s college career is over; he is going to have shoulder surgery, a big blow to the Vols’ hopes of getting back to the NCAA tournament.

5) Milwaukee Bucks have seven wins this year where they never trailed; thats the most by any NBA team before January in the last 20 years.

4) MLB and the umpires came to a 5-year contract agreement; curious to see if the automated strike zone becomes a thing during that time.

3) Seattle Seahawks signed Marshawn Lynch Monday night to help replenish their depleted group of running backs.

2) Packers 23, Vikings 10— Kirk Cousins is now 0-9 on Monday Night Football. Minnesota gained 139 yards, had only 7 first downs- they started three drives in Green Bay territory, and still scored only 10 points.

1) Congrats to the Big Dawg on another winning season picking NFL games on this site; he is 25-18-1 this season, and since 2012, he is 209-166 (55.7%) against the number. Well done!!!!

[StarDust Bum]

Public grabs win in Week 16
December 23, 2019
By Micah Roberts

NFL Week 16 favorites went 7-5 against-the-spread in Sunday’s action making it a two straight week favorite trend after underdogs dominated most of the season. There were mixed results across Nevada sportsbooks with the most important result needing the Bears to cover +7 at home against the Chiefs.

Final score: Chiefs 26, Bears 3.

“We got sharp money on the Chiefs pushing us up to -7, and it was also a popular public play. So we’ve got a 6-to-1 ratio in cash and 7-to-1 ratio with tickets written on the Chiefs,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback prior to kickoff. “It decides our day. KC will make us a loser.”

The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook opened the Chiefs -5 and while VP Jay Kornegay said they had significant risk on the Chiefs, it wasn’t enough to ruin their day. They showed a higher hold percentage than most.

The Chiefs win and cover makes them 5-0 ATS in their last five with all five staying under the total. It’s a winning 13-to-5 two-team, side-to-total, parlay for the last five weeks. Their defense has been sneaky good over that time and Patrick Mahomes has been elite. They’re clicking at the right time so we might want to be hedging some Ravens future bets about now.

“We had big losses in the morning games,” said Stoneback. “The Falcons and Giants got us in a really big hole. We had a player bet to win $150,000 ($165,000 wager) on Falcons -7 and also -7.5. But we got it all back in the afternoon with the Eagles being the biggest win of the day.”

Have you ever seen such a roller coaster of team ratings than what the Falcons are doing going 5-2 SU, ATS in their last seven which include wins at San Francisco and New Orleans? They aren’t the same team that started with a high rating and went 1-7 SU, ATS to drop rating. They fought back, give the staff and players all credit for the rebound of self-respect.

The Giants started QB Daniel Jones (Danny Dimes) after sitting out the last two games injured and all he’d do is throw for five TDs, including the game-winner, in the Giants 41-35 overtime win. The Redskins opened 2.5-point home favorites and the Giants were bet up to a 1.5-point favorite.

The Ravens (-10, 31-15 win at Cleveland) were part of the trio of teams most bet in parlays during the week that was the root for most books that do large public action losing or breaking even on the day. The Saints was one of them and so was the Chiefs. They all cashed.

The Ravens have won 11 straight. The Week 17 question is 'rest or rust?' with a long layoff bye to start the playoffs.

“Our worst game was the Saints,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. “We needed the Saints (through Friday), but the weekend crowd with Saints action flipped our rooting interest. The Giants game also was no good.”

The Saints won, 38-28, at Tennessee closing at -3 (-120) after opening as 1.5-point favorites. At 12-3, the Saints keep themselves in the running for home-field advantage in the NFC.

The biggest underdog win of the day was the Cardinals closing +7.5 after opening +9.5 at Seattle. They would win, 27-13, handing the Seahawks their third home loss of the season. But all is still well because Seattle can win the NFC West with a home win against the 49ers next week. The Superbook has the 49ers 3-point road favorites. FYI 49ers, the Cardinals just ran for 256 yards against the Seahawks defense.

“The Cardinals win was a positive for us but it wasn’t as big a deal as it might appear,” Stoneback said of the biggest upset on the day. “We just didn’t have a lot of action overall because of the holidays.”

MGM books had the best Cardinals money-line price in Las Vegas at kickoff at +360. The next best was CG Technology at +340 while most others in town were +330. MGM books often have the best underdog money-line prices and Stoneback explains why.

“We have a few players that like to play large favorite money-line parlays so we’re trying to attract any kind of underdog money to offset some of the liability," Stoneback said.

The Eagles control their own NFC East fate after 17-9 win against the Cowboys. A win next week at the Giants (+5) clinches the division regardless of what the Cowboys do at home against the Redskins (+11).

“The Eagles was a monster game, our best on the day,” DiTommaso said. "The Jets (+155 ML vs. Steelers) were good for us all well, and believe it or not one of our best decisions was the Dolphins beating the Bengals.”

The Bengals, once down 28-6, made a furious comeback with 23-points in the final 6:11 capped off by a successful Hail Mary and then a successful 2-point conversion to tie the game, 35-35, and send into overtime. Insane stuff.

The Dolphins kicked the winning field goal as time ran out in overtime to win, 38-35, but for a while, it looked as though it would be the world’s slimmest way for a book to get middled. The Dolphins opened a 1-point favorite and closed as a 1-point dog. “A tie wouldn’t have been good,” DiTommaso said.

Quick observation from Week 16: The four worst rated teams in the NFL managed to produce the two most entertaining games on Sunday. The Dolphins, Bengals, Redskins, and Giants players all played to their fullest and never gave up, or never looked like the worst teams their records and data over the season suggested they were.

You know what else is wild? The Bengals securing the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft with their loss at Miami. The NFL Draft is in Las Vegas next season. The Raiders are in Las Vegas next season. A Super Bowl will be in Las Vegas soon. It was just a short few years ago when the NFL wouldn't allow Las Vegas to buy ads during the Super Bowl. The irony of it all, wait until an official NFL Sportsbook opens near you.

Seriously, the first Las Vegas NFL Draft is going to have the Bengals draft a southeastern Ohio kid, Joe Burrow, No. 1 in the draft. That is an amazing story I can't wait to see unfold for the former Buckeye that couldn't beat out Dwayne Haskins and then transferred to LSU where he won the Heisman Trophy during an undefeated 2019 season. And then he just might face his Buckeyes for the National Championship.

Week 17 of the NFL is upcoming this week and it is the toughest weeks of the season for oddsmakers and also the toughest for bookmakers. Who is resting players? Who cares the most? Information is everything. Be careful this week, my friends.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 16
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 16 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 7-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-9

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 134-82-1
Against the Spread 106-121-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 127-107-1
Against the Spread 100-127-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 115-119-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Cardinals (+8, ML +350) at Seahawks, 27-13
Raiders (+7.5. ML +280) at Chargers, 24-17
Jets (+3, ML +155) vs. Steelers, 16-10
Eagles (+2.5, ML +120) vs. Cowboys, 17-9

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-10) at Browns, 31-15
Broncos (-8) vs. Lions, 27-17
Falcons (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 24-12
Chiefs (-7) at Bears, 26-3
Colts (-7) vs. Panthers, 38-6
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Bills, 24-17

The Art of Falconry

-- The Atlanta Falcons were just 1-7 SU heading into their Week 9 bye, and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that head coach Dan Quinn would be fired, and that there would be some major staff and personnel changes. The Falcons banded together in Week 10 and pulled off a stunner, winning 26-9 at 13.5-point underdogs in New Orleans on Nov. 10, and that kicked off a 5-2 SU run to get back to 6-9 SU heading into the Week 17 finale at Tampa Bay.

For the Falcons, they have showed no quit, and their defensive line play has been brutal - to opposing quarterbacks - in the second half. As mentioned, they face the Bucs in Week 17 at Raymond James Stadium, as the revenge tour continues. Bettors are finding the Falcons to be a tremendous value lately. They started out 1-6 ATS in the first seven games, but they're 6-2 ATS across the past eight contests. That includes a 3-0 ATS run on the road, which makes them worth watching heading into the RayJay on Sunday. The Falcons are 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight trips to Tampa, while the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The 'over' is also 6-1 in the previous seven.

Total Recall

-- There were two games with a total of 50 or greater -- Houston Texans-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5) and Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks (51) each ended up going under.

The Saturday game between the Texans and Bucs never materialized into a shootout. Well, it started out that way, as the teams combined for 34 points in the first half, but they totaled just three field goals in the final 30 minutes. It's like someone turned off the offensive spigot.

In the game with the highest total on the board, one of the starting quarterbacks was lost to injury. So that's understandable why the game ended up going under - although it's not the quarterback you'd think. QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) left the game early in the second half due to injury, but the Cards offense didn't skip a beat. They kept their foot on the gas, as supposed MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson didn't do much of anything on offense. The Seahawks had two scoreless quarters, and they managed a total of just 13 points on their home turf. The two games with a total of 49 -- Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints-Tennessee Titans -- ended up splitting. The Ravens did their part, but the Browns managed just 15 points after hanging a 40-burger on Balto. earlier this season. The Saints and Titans combined by 66 points in the third-highest scoring game of the weekend.

The Pittsburgh Steelers-New York Jets (36.5) was easily the lowest score on the board, and it never came close to hitting 'over'. The Steelers and Jets were tied 10-10 at halftime, but Pittsburgh's passing offense tossed up a bunch of 'ducks', and they were unable to score in the final 30 minutes. The Jets didn't do much better, scratching out just two field goals, but they ended up falling 16-10 to old buddy RB Le'Veon Bell and the Jets in a costly loss.

The Sunday nighter between the Kansas City Chiefs-Chicago Bears (45.5) hit the 'under', now 13-4 on the season. We have one more night game Monday between the Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings (47) still pending. The 'over' is just 17-30 (36.2%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead to Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings, but 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to Arrowhead. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the past meetings.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in the past seven trips to Foxboro, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings, and the home team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 in this series.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The Saints are 0-4 ATS in the past four in this series, but 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Charlotte. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven, with the underdog 10-1 ATS in the previous 11 meetings.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

The home team has cashed in six of the past eight meetings in this series. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Minnesota.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

The favorite has cashed in eight of the past nine meetings in this series, while the Browns are 2-8 ATS in the past 10 in the series. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings, and 6-2 in the past eight battles in Cincinnati.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

The Jets are 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to Buffalo, with the underdog 20-8 ATS in the past 28 meetings in this series.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

The Packers are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings, with the favorite 19-7 ATS in the past 26 in this series. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings, with the over 4-0 in the past four at Ford Field.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

The Redskins are 9-3 ATS in the past 12 trips to Dallas, with the road team 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings. The underdog is also 27-12 ATS in the past 39. The over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings, including 4-0 in the past four in Dallas.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings in L.A., with the favorite 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five in SoCal, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, but 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings in New Jersey. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall, and a perfect 7-0 in the past seven meetings in New Jersey.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

The Titans are 0-5 ATS in the past five trips to Houston, and 4-12 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The over is also 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Houston.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts are a dismal 0-4 ATS in the past four trips to Jacksonville, and 1-7-1 ATS in the past nine meetings overall. The under is also 12-5 in the past 17 meetings in this series.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Raiders are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, but the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 in the series and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven. The under is also 6-0 in the past six in this series, and 4-0 in the past four in Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the underdog 4-0 ATS in the past four. The under is also 5-0 in the past five battles in Baltimore.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers are 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in Seattle, while going 3-12-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The over is also 6-2 in the past eight in this series.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 17 opening odds and early action: Favored 49ers draw money for big clash vs Seahawks
Patrick Everson

It’s on to Week 17 in the NFL, with all 16 games on Sunday, and there’s plenty at stake in terms of the playoff field and seeding. We check in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

The final Sunday nighter of the regular season is a dandy, in which San Francisco will either remain the NFC’s No. 1 seed or drop to No. 5. The 49ers (12-3 SU, 8-6-1 ATS), who in Week 15 tumbled from first to fifth, got back to No. 1 in Week 16 by topping the Los Angeles Rams 34-31 as 7-point home faves.

Seattle pulled a San Francisco in Week 16, dropping from the NFC’s top seed to No. 5 with an unexpected toe-stubbing at home. The Seahawks (11-4 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) went off as 8-point favorites against Arizona and were dealt a 27-13 outright loss to relinquish the NFC West lead.

In Week 10, the Seahawks beat the Niners 27-24 in overtime getting 6.5 points on the road.

“We opened the 49ers -2.5 (-120) and are now up to -3,” Murray said. “Seattle is very banged up. This one is pretty straightforward. Both teams want the game. We just don’t think Seattle is healthy enough to deal with this 49ers team.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Pittsburgh was in the playoff field prior to Sunday, but not afterward in losing control of its playoff destiny, though there are still multiple ways for the No. 7 seed to move back in. The Steelers (8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS) had a sluggish effort against the New York Jets, losing 16-10 as 3-point road favorites.

Meanwhile, Baltimore has nothing to play for, with home-field advantage wrapped up throughout the AFC playoffs, thanks to its 11-game SU win streak (8-3 ATS). The Ravens (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) beat Cleveland 31-15 as 9.5-point road favorites.

“This was the hardest number to set,” Murray said. “The Ravens have home field clinched, and the Steelers have to win to have a shot to get in. Will the Ravens bench all of their starters? Or will they want the guys to get some reps with a bye coming the next week? We will be watching Twitter on this one.”

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+4.5)

Houston has the AFC South and a playoff bid wrapped up, and it’s now just a matter of whether Bill O’Brien’s squad will be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, as it sits fourth right now. The Texans (10-5 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) edged Tampa Bay 23-20 laying 3 points in Week 16.

For Tennessee, it’s a pretty simple matter: win and go to the playoffs as a wild card, lose and hit the golf course. The Titans (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) got out to a 14-0 lead against New Orleans on Sunday, but gave up the next 24 points in a 38-28 loss catching 3.5 points at home.

“Houston is in as the AFC South winner. If the Titans win, they will likely play at Kansas City in the wild-card round,” Murray said. “This line is with an expectation that DeShaun Watson won’t play for the Texans.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+6)

Philadelphia is in complete control of its playoff destiny, with a win-and-your-in scenario in Week 17. That’s because the Eagles (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) stifled rival Dallas 17-9 as 2-point home pups Sunday, taking a one-game lead over the Cowboys in the NFC East.

New York can potentially play the role of monster spoiler, provided it wins this week and Dallas beats visiting Washington. The Giants (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) have back-to-back victories for just the second time all season, after beating the Redskins 41-35 in overtime as 1-point home faves to cash for the fourth time in five weeks.

“We opened it Eagles -6 and are now at -5,” Murray said. “The Eagles win the division with a win here, but we don’t expect the Giants to go quietly. Philly was lucky to beat them two weeks ago and lucky to beat Washington last week. The Eagles are hardly world beaters.”


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101TENNESSEE -102 HOUSTON
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.

103CLEVELAND -104 CINCINNATI
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 2+ SU losses in the last 3 seasons.

105CHICAGO -106 MINNESOTA
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after playing a game at home in the current season.

107INDIANAPOLIS -108 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after the first month of the season in the last 2 seasons.

109ATLANTA -110 TAMPA BAY
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the last 2 seasons.

111WASHINGTON -112 DALLAS
WASHINGTON is 23-7 ATS (15.3 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992.

113NEW ORLEANS -114 CAROLINA
CAROLINA is 39-16 ATS (21.4 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.

115PHILADELPHIA -116 NY GIANTS
Pat Shurmur is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games as a dog (Coach of NY GIANTS)

115PHILADELPHIA -116 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 2 seasons.

117PITTSBURGH -118 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

119NY JETS -120 BUFFALO
NY JETS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

121MIAMI -122 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) over the last 2 seasons.

123GREEN BAY -124 DETROIT
DETROIT is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

125LA CHARGERS -126 KANSAS CITY
LA CHARGERS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.

125LA CHARGERS -126 KANSAS CITY
LA CHARGERS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

127ARIZONA -128 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

129SAN FRANCISCO -130 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

131OAKLAND -132 DENVER
OAKLAND is 42-85 ATS (-51.5 Units) vs. losing teams since 1992.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, December 29

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TENNESSEE (8 - 7) at HOUSTON (10 - 5) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 122-158 ATS (-51.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (6 - 9) at CINCINNATI (1 - 14) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (7 - 8) at MINNESOTA (10 - 4) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 10) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (6 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 8) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 12) at DALLAS (7 - 8) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 68-96 ATS (-37.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (12 - 3) at CAROLINA (5 - 10) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (8 - 7) at NY GIANTS (4 - 11) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (8 - 7) at BALTIMORE (13 - 2) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
PITTSBURGH is 83-56 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (6 - 9) at BUFFALO (10 - 5) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (4 - 11) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 3) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-206 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-206 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-151 ATS (+40.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-88 ATS (+33.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (11 - 3) at DETROIT (3 - 11 - 1) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 116-84 ATS (+23.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 71-45 ATS (+21.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 147-186 ATS (-57.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 49-74 ATS (-32.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (5 - 10) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 4) - 12/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 129-95 ATS (+24.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 129-95 ATS (+24.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 104-74 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 9 - 1) at LA RAMS (8 - 7) - 12/29/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 95-125 ATS (-42.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 147-192 ATS (-64.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 75-107 ATS (-42.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 5-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 5-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (12 - 3) at SEATTLE (11 - 4) - 12/29/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (7 - 8) at DENVER (6 - 9) - 12/29/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 38-66 ATS (-34.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 42-85 ATS (-51.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-62 ATS (-32.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Browns (6-9) @ Bengals (1-14)— End of lousy year for Cleveland team that was favored to win AFC North at start of year; Browns lost three of last four games, giving up 38-31 points in last two. Cleveland lost its last five road games; since 2013, they’re 1-6 ATS as a road favorite, 1-3 TY. Cincy scored 23 points in last 6:12 of regulation to force OT in Miami LW, then they lost in OT- Dalton threw for 396 yards. Bengals lost last three games, are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog, 2-3 TY. Cincy’s last three games went over total. Browns (-7) beat Cincy 27-19 three weeks ago, their third win in row over Bengals; Cleveland’s first points that day came on a pick-6- they were outgained, Browns lost eight of their last ten visits to Cincinnati.

Bears (7-8) @ Vikings (10-5)— Minnesota is in the playoffs, can move up to #5-seed if they win here and 49ers beat Seattle- better to play NFC East champ in Wild Card round. Vikings had only 7 first downs, 139 TY in Monday night’s 23-10 loss; they split last four games, are 6-1 SU at home TY, but 0-3-1 ATS in last four home games. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Chicago lost its last two games, scoring one TD n 20 drives; they’re 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog, 0-3 TY. Under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Bears (-2) beat Minnesota 16-6 in Week 4; total yardage was 269-222 Bears, who had 10-yard edge in field position. Chicago won last three series games, but lost six of last seven visits to the Twin Cities.

Colts (7-8) @ Jaguars (5-10)— Jacksonville lost six of its last seven games; they were down 16-3 in the one win. Jags were outscored 84-9 in first half of their last four games; they were outscored 73-21 in last two home games- under Marrone, they’re 7-7 ATS as a home underdog. 1-3 TY. Three of their last four games stayed under the total. Indy lost four of last five games, whacking Panthers 38-6 LW; Colts lost last four road games, are 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite, 0-1 TY. Colts are +6 in turnovers in their last three games. Four of their last six road games stayed under. Colts (-3) hammed Jaguars 33-13 in Week 11, running ball for 264 yards; Indy lost its last four visits here, by 6-20-3-35 points.

Falcons (6-9) @ Buccaneers (7-8)— Winston averaged 11.2 yards/pass attempt in Tampa Bay’s 35-22 win at Atlanta in Week 12, their first win in last five series games. Falcons won last three visits here by 2-3-15 points, with average total of 60.7 in those games. Atlanta won five of its last seven games after a 1-7 start- they scored 10 TD’s on 31 drives in last three games. Falcons covered six of last eight games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Tampa Bay won four of its last five games; they’re 2-4 SU at home TY. If Winston throws two INTs here, he’ll be first QB EVER to throw 30+ TD’s, 30+ INTs in same year. Over is 10-3 in their last 13 games. Bucs are scoring 37.9 ppg when they turn the ball over two or fewer times (5-3).

Redskins (3-12) @ Cowboys (7-8)— Dallas needs a win/Eagle loss to make playoffs; Keenum gets nod at QB for Redskins, with rookie Haskins (ankle) out. Dallas (-5) beat Washington 31-21 at home in Week 2, running for 213 yards, converting 7-11 on 3rd down. Cowboys won seven of last eight series games, winning last three meetings here, by 8-24-5 points. Dallas lost four of last five games overall; they’re 4-3 SU at home TY. Over last decade, they’re 20-37-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-3 TY. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Redskins lost their last three games, giving up 10 TD’s on 21 drives in last two games; they’re 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog, 3-3 TY. Three of their last four games went over.

Saints (12-3) @ Panthers (5-10)— New Orleans is playing for shot at a bye and having next week off; they beat Carolina 34-31 (-9.5) in Week 12, kicking FG at gun, after blowing a 31-18 lead. Saints won five of last six series games, winning last two visits to Charlotte by 3-21 points. New Orleans won five of its last six games overall, scoring 15 TD’s on 31 drives in last three games; they’re 6-1 SU on road TY, 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite, 3-0 TY. Four of their last six games went over. Carolina lost its last seven games (2-5 ATS); they lost 38-6 (+7) at Indy LW in Grier’s NFL debut. In their last seven games, Panthers have a minus-17 turnover ratio, turning ball over 19 times. Carolina is 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog, 1-1 TY.

Eagles (8-7) @ Giants (4-11)— Eagles make playoffs with win/tie; Philly beat Giants 23-17 in OT at home three weeks ago, rallying back from 17-3 halftime deficit for 11th win in last 12 series games. Manning played that game for Giants; Jones gets start here. Philly won five of last six series games played here. Philly won its last three games, scoring nine TD’s on 33 drives; they converted 26 of 54 third down plays in those games. Eagles are 3-4 SU on road this year; under Pederson, they’re 8-10 ATS as a road favorite, 1-2 TY. Five of their last seven games went under the total. Giants won last two games, covered four of last five; under Shurmur, they’re 1-9 ATS as a home underdog, 0-4 TY. Six of their last eight games went over the total.

Steelers (8-7) @ Ravens (13-2)— QB Jackson and few teammates won’t play here; Ravens have AFC #1 seed locked up; Steelers need win and Tennessee loss to make playoffs- Hodges will start at QB for Pitt- they’re 3-2 in his starts. Ravens (-3.5) won 26-23 at Pittsburgh in Week 5, kicking 48-yard FG with 0:10 left to force OT. Teams split last eight series games, with road team taking last four; Steelers won 23-16/23-9 in last two visits to Charm City. Pittsburgh lost its last two games, scoring 10-10 points; they scored two TD’s, turned ball over seven times on last 24 drives. Steelers’ last seven games stayed under. Baltimore won its last 11 games, with three of last four staying under total- this is RGIII’s first NFL start since 2016 (15-25 as NFL starter).

Jets (6-9) @ Bills (10-5)— Buffalo has locked up #5 seed and a road game in Wild Card round next week; they’re going to play QB Allen here, but for how long? Bills (+2.5) won season opener 17-16 in Swamp Stadium after trailing 16-3 with 11:00 left; Buffalo won three of last four series games- teams split last four series games played here. Jets won five of last seven games after a 1-7 start; they’re 1-6 SU on road TY, with lone win at Washington. Jets are 8-15-2 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog, 2-3 TY. Four of their last five games went under. Buffalo lost two of last three games, losing to Ravens/Patriots; they’re 4-3 SU at home TY, 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Dolphins (4-11) @ Patriots (12-3)— New England needs win here for bye next week; they waxed Miami 43-0 (-19) in Week 2, picking off four passes, sacking Miami QB’s seven times. Dolphins lost their last ten visits to Foxboro, going 0-7 ATS in last seven. Miami split its last eight games after an 0-7 start; they’re 8-3 AS in last 11 games, allowed 31+ points in four of last five games. Dolphins are 4-3 ATS as road dogs TY, 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a double digit underdog, 3-4 TY. Five of their last six games went over. New England is 4-3 SU in last seven games after an 8-0 start; they’re 24-11-3 ATS in last 38 games as a home favorite, 4-3 TY. Three of their last four games went over. In their last seven games, NE was outscored 87-65 in first half.

Packers (12-3) @ Lions (3-11-1)— Green Bay won NFC North, is still playing for next week off; Packers nipped Detroit 23-22 (-5) in Week 5, kicking GW FG at gun, after trailing 13-0 early on. Green Bay beat Lions for first time in last five tries, despite despite being -3 in turnovers- they lost 30-17/31-23 in last two visits to the Motor City. Short week for Packers after their win in Minnesota Monday nite; GB won its last four games, allowing 12.8 ppg- they’re 13-10 ATS in last 23 games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY. Five of their last six games stayed under. Detroit lost its last eight games (1-6-1 ATS); they’re 8-17-1 ATS in last 26 games as a home underdog, 3-3 TY. Lions were outscored 48-13 in 1st half of last three games. Three of their last four games went over.

Chargers (5-10) @ Chiefs (11-4)— Kansas City won/covered its last five games; they allowed 3-3 points in last two games (no TD’s on last 15 drives). KC allowed 31+ points in each of its last three losses. Chiefs are 13-8 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite, 4-2 TY. Under is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Chiefs need win/Patriot loss to get bye ext week; they beat LA 24-17 (-3.5) in Mexico in Week 11, picking Rivers off four times. Chiefs won 10 of last 11 series games; Chargers covered five of last seven visits to Arrowhead. Chargers lost five of last six games overall, running ball 35 times for 81 yards in last two games; they’ve got only three takeaways in last seven games (-12). Three of their last four games went over.

Titans (8-7) @ Texans (10-5)— Tennessee makes playoffs with win here; Texans will host a playoff game next week, no matter what. Houston (+3) won 24-21 in Nashville two weeks ago, Texans’ 12th win in last 16 series games. Titans lost their last seven visits to Houston, going 0-5 ATS in last five. Tennessee lost its last two games, allowing 24-38 points; they lost field position in last three games, by 17-18-12 yards. Titans are 4-3 SU on road TY, 4-7-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY. Eight of their last nine games went over. Houston won six of its last eight games; they’re 5-2 SU at home TY, 5-9 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog, 1-1 TY. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Cardinals (5-9-1) @ Rams (8-7)— Arizona QB Murray (hamstring) got hurt last week; check status. Legit ?’s about Rams’ motivation here after being eliminated LW; star CB Ramsey (knee) is out. LA smoked Cardinals 34-7 in Arizona in Week 13, outgaining Redbirds 549-198; they won last six series games, winning last four by combined score of 132-32. Cardinals won their last two games, scoring 38-27 points; they covered eight of last 11 games. Arizona covered six of its even road games this season. Rams lost last two games, got KO’d from playoff contention LW after winning NFC title LY. LA split their six home games SU TY; under McVay, Rams are 9-10 ATS as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Raiders (7-8) @ Broncos (6-9)— Denver (-2) lost 24-16 in Oakland back in Week 1, game they trailed 14-0 at half; home side won last seven series games. Raiders lost their last three visits to Denver, by 1-6-18 points. Oakland lost four of its last five games overall, getting outscored 88-19 in 2nd half; they have only one takeaway in last four games (-3). Raiders are 2-5 SU on road TY, 6-15-1 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog, 3-3 TY. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Oakland has only one takeaway in their last four games. Denver is 3-1 with rookie Lock at QB; they won/covered last three home games. Broncos were held to 6 or fewer points in three of their last four losses. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.

49ers (12-3) @ Seahawks (11-4)— Winner takes NFC West title and maybe a first round bye. Seahawks (+6.5) won first meeting 27-24 in OT at Santa Clara in Week 10, blowing 21-10 lead in sloppy game with combined seven turnovers, 10 sacks- Seattle won field position by 12 yards. Seahawks won 10 of last 11 series games, winning last seven meetings played here (1-6 ATS). 49ers are 4-3 in last seven games after an 8-0 start; they’re 6-1 SU on road- underdogs covered all seven games. Niners are 1-4 ATS in last five games as a road favorite, 0-2 TY. Seven of their last nine games went over. Seattle is so thin at RB, they brought Lynch back in to play RB. Seahawks are 4-3 SU at home; they covered their last six games as a home underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 17

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Trend Report
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Sunday, December 29

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games
LA Chargers is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
LA Chargers is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Minnesota's last 19 games at home
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games on the road
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing NY Jets
Buffalo is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing NY Jets
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
NY Jets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
NY Jets is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Carolina is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Carolina's last 16 games when playing at home against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
New Orleans is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New Orleans's last 16 games when playing on the road against Carolina

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games
Cincinnati is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 12 games at home
Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit

New England Patriots
New England is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
New England is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
New England is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games at home
New England is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 12 games at home
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
New England is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Miami
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Miami is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
Miami is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Miami is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing New England
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 3-6-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games
Tampa Bay is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games
Atlanta is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Dallas's last 18 games
Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 15 games at home
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games
Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Washington is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Houston Texans
Houston is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games
Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games at home
Houston is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 9 games
Tennessee is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Jacksonville's last 12 games at home
Jacksonville is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Jacksonville's last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 17 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville

New York Giants
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Giants's last 8 games
NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Giants's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 10 games
LA Rams is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
LA Rams is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Arizona is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Arizona is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Arizona is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Denver Broncos
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Denver is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Denver's last 24 games
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 14 games at home
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 6-15-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Oakland is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Denver
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Seattle's last 24 games
Seattle is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Seattle is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
San Francisco is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Seattle
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle


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[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17


Sunday, December 29

LA Chargers @ Kansas City

Game 125-126
December 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
124.290
Kansas City
144.508
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 20
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 8
45
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-8); Over

Miami @ New England

Game 121-122
December 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
121.615
New England
139.173
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 18 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 15 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-15 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ Carolina

Game 113-114
December 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
140.409
Carolina
119.406
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 21
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 13
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-13); Under

Chicago @ Minnesota

Game 105-106
December 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
128.157
Minnesota
135.080
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1
37
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-1); Over

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Game 109-110
December 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.501
Tampa Bay
134.393
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+1 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Game 103-104
December 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
124.929
Cincinnati
125.954
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+3); Under

NY Jets @ Buffalo

Game 119-120
December 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
133.130
Buffalo
130.837
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 2 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 1 1/2
36 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+1 1/2); Over

Green Bay @ Detroit

Game 123-124
December 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
138.244
Detroit
121.913
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 16 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 12 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-12 1/2); Under

Washington @ Dallas

Game 111-112
December 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
123.201
Dallas
130.524
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 7 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 11
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+11); Over

Arizona @ LA Rams

Game 127-128
December 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
128.301
LA Rams
137.410
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 9
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-7); Over

Philadelphia @ NY Giants

Game 115-116
December 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
132.377
NY Giants
125.615
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 7
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-4); Under

Tennessee @ Houston

Game 101-102
December 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
134.409
Houston
135.935
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+4); Under

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 107-108
December 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
131.223
Jacksonville
121.163
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 10
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-3 1/2); Over

Oakland @ Denver

Game 131-132
December 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
128.466
Denver
126.691
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Game 117-118
December 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
129.249
Baltimore
147.273
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 18
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+2 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Seattle

Game 129-130
December 29, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.223
Seattle
133.732
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+3); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 17 odds: Take your time with the Texans
Jason Logan

The Houston Texans will be watching the Kansas City Chiefs closely before their late-afternoon kickoff against the Tennessee Titans in Week 17 of the NFL season.

NFL Week 17 is an odd week of action to handicap. Motivation and preparation come into play, with some teams looking ahead to the offseason and others planning for the postseason. That could mean rest for starters or going all out to better their playoff positioning.

Expect some wild line movement the closer we get to kickoff on Sunday (so get your Covers Live App alerts ready). To help you stay ahead of the moves, Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you his best Bet Now/Bet Later lines for Week 17: because it’s not always about betting the best team, but rather betting the best number.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

This NFC West finale was flexed to the Sunday night game due to it being the linchpin of the conference playoff pecking order. With a win, San Francisco is the top seed in the NFC and will hold home field through to the conference title game.

Seattle, on the other hand, can finish anywhere from No. 1 to No. 3 (depending on the outcome of Packers and Saints’ games) as long as it beats the Niners. However, that may be easier said than done after the Seahawks were roughed up in Sunday’s loss to Arizona. Running backs Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise were lost for the season, piling on the problems for a roster that was already hurting on both sides of the ball.

This spread opened as low as San Francisco -2 and has already jump a full point to a field goal. Early action is on the 49ers and has books trimming the vig on Seattle +3, trying to entice some action on the wounded underdog. If you like the Niners here, get them -3 before you have to deal with that nasty half-point hook.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: TENNESSEE TITANS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (+4.5)

This spread already indicates that the Texans are planning to lay down in Week 17, with the AFC South locked up and the Titans trying to win the No. 6 spot. However, everything is not set in stone for Houston. It could jump from the No. 4 spot to the No. 3 spot if Kansas City loses to the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday.

Here’s the hook: the Chiefs host the Chargers at 1 p.m. ET while the Texans don’t face the Titans until 4:25 p.m. ET. Houston will be scoreboard watching and if the Chiefs do start running it up on the Bolts, you can expect to see this Tennessee-Houston spread climb as well before kickoff.

If you’re hunting for value with home dogs in Week 17 (A.J. McCarron is the Texans backup QB, BTW), wait it out and see how that Kansas City-Los Angeles game shakes down. A Chiefs win and Tennessee going all out will puff this pointspread up like it just had seconds of Xmas dinner.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 48 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Saints have plenty to play for in Week 17 and a win over Carolina can set the table for New Orleans to jump as high as No. 1 in the NFC playoff standings – given the other games involved trickle down in its favor.

With the way the Saints are scoring right now, they might be able to top this total all by themselves. New Orleans is averaging more than 39 points per game over its last three and with the spread for this one teetering on two touchdowns, bookies expect NOLA to light up the scoreboard.

Carolina has hemorrhaged points in recent weeks, allowing its last three foes to total 108 combined points. The Panthers are in audition mode in Week 17, kicking the tires not only on their young QBs but all players. Don't be surprised to see some life from Carolina, which won’t need to score much to get this one Over the number.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 42.5 OAKLAND RAIDERS AT DENVER BRONCOS

The Raiders have a chance of making the playoffs if everything breaks their way in Week 17. Oakland needs to beat the Broncos but also have the Titans, Steelers and Jaguars fall in their respective finales. Honestly, it’s not the wildest scenario. That motivation is inspiring some action on the Over, moving this total from as low as 41 to 42.5.

The Raiders gave fans a victory in L.A. this past Sunday – a crowd loaded with Silver and Black – and now play their second straight road tilt in the high altitude of Denver, where game-time temperatures will cool off around freezing Sunday. Oakland is averaging just 15 points over its last six games, staying Under the total in five of those contests.

Denver has remained sound defensively despite having little to play for, with an average of 20.8 points against over its last five outings. The Broncos will continue to interview rookie QB Drew Lock and would relish any chance to play postseason spoiler to their AFC West rival. These divisional foes have paid out to the Under in six straight meetings and anyone who likes the Under this Sunday should wait it out and get some added points on this total.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 17
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Dec. 29

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Texans just 3-5 vs. line last eight TY, but did win and cover at Titans on Dec. 15, and Houston only 2-6 vs. spread last eight at NRG. though 8-3-1 vs. spread away since early 2018. Texans have, however, won and covered last five as series host. Tenn 6-3 SU and vs. line with Tannehill at QB, also “over” 8-1 last nine TY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.


CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies 0-5 SU and vs. line last five away TY, though Bengals just 1-5-1 vs. spread TY at Paul Brown. Cincy still 8-2 vs. line last ten in series though no cover Dec. 8 at Cleveland.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on extended trends.


CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears on 17-5 “under” run since mid 2018, Vikes “under” 9-4-1 last 14 at home, and series “under” 4-1 last five meetings. Bears on 2-9 spread skid since end of September.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jags on 1-6 SU and spread skid into this 2019 finale. Indy 8-3 last 11 vs. line on road since late 2018. Though Jags were 6–0-1 vs. line last seven in series until Colts won Nov. 17 at Lucas Oil.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on recent trends.


ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons 5-2 SU and vs. line since bye week. Bucs 0-6 vs. spread at Raymond James in 2019! TB also 12-4 “over” since late 2018, and series “over” 6-1 last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Falcons and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


WASHINGTON at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Skins have covered 3 of last 4 on road this season though have dropped 3 of last 4 vs. spread at Arlington and just 2-5 vs. spread last seven vs. Cowboys. “Overs” 6-2 last eight in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Cowboys, based on “totals” and team trends.


NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have won and covered last six on road TY, now 13-3 vs. spread as visitor since LY. Though Panthers have covered last 3 in series. Still, skidding Carolina 0-7 SU, 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven in 2019 (lone cover in that stretch surprisingly vs. Saints at Superdome). Panthers also “over” 11-5 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.


PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
G-Men have covered 4 of last 5 in series including Dec. 9 at Linc, and NY has also covered last three and 4 of 5 overall in 2019. Though G-Men just 2-7 vs. spread last nine at MetLife. Interestingly, last seven meetings are “over” between these two at MetLife.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Giants, based on “totals” and series trends.


PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Ravens have won last 11 in 2019 and 8-1 vs. spread last nine this season. Tomlin 5-2 as dog in 2019, 1q0-2 in role since 201. Underdog team 6-2-1 last nine series meetings. Steel 13-3 “under” since late 2018 though first meeting was “over” on Oct. 6.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on Steel “totals” trends.


NY JETS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 9-5-1 vs. spread in 2019 but only 3-4 vs. points at Orchard Park. Jets just 1-5 vs. points last six away in 2019. Road team has covered last three in series including Bills win on opening day at MetLife. Buffalo “under” 12-4 since late 2018, though jets 7-3 “over” last ten away.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on Bills’ “totals” trends.


MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Patriots have won last ten SU at home vs. Miami (since the 2008 “Wildcat” game) and have covered last 7 and 9 of last 10 Gillette vs. Dolphins. Miami however on surprising 8-3 spread uptick since October. Belichick “under” 17-7 in reg.-season games since mid 2018, though Dolphins on 4-1 “under” run last five in 2019.
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.


GREEN BAY at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions on 1-9 spread skid since mid October, also “over” 10-5 this season. Pack on 16-7 spread uptick since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Packers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


LA CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bolts 4-11 vs. line in 2019, 3-5 vs. line away in what had been a good role as visitor prior to this season. Also just 2-3 as dog in 2019 in what had also previously been good. Chiefs have won and covered last five in 2019, also “under” each of those five games, Chargers “under” 11-6 since late 2018. Chiefs have covered 5 of last 6 in series.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


ARIZONA at LA RAMS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rams have won and covered big the last five meetings, all wins by 16 or more. Though Cards 7-3-1 last 11 vs. line in 2019 (did lose vs. Rams in that stretch on Dec. 1 at Glendale, however). Rams only 4-8 vs. line last 12 at Coliseum in regular season though it’s 3-3 in 2019. Last Rams game at Coliseum!
Tech Edge: Rams, based on series trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Niners 6-1 SU and vs. line away in 2019, Hawks only 2-5 vs. line at home this season. Niners have also lost last 6 SU at CenturyLink (1-5 vs. line), though last five trips to Seattle, Seahawks were the better team and heavily favored (all spreads 9 ½ or high in those games).
Tech Edge: 49ers, based on recent trends.


OAKLAND at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 9-3 ATS since start of Oct, and Raiders on 1-5 spread run into finale (though did cover most-recent game at Chargers). Oakland has covered last four in series, however, including MNF opener at Coliseum. Last six “under” in series, Denver “under” 17-7 since mid 2018 (though Broncos “over” 5-2 last seven in 2019).
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.