Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 21
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at TB 01:00 PM
TB +3.0
O 51.0

BUF at NE 04:30 PM
BUF +6.5
U 37.5

LAR at SF 08:15 PM
SF -6.5
O 44.5

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots, Texans clinch division titles with wins
December 21, 2019
By The Associated Press

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) Tom Brady passed for 271 yards and a touchdown, sneaked for a third-down conversion to set up another score and threw a downfield block on another scoring drive to help the New England Patriots clinch their 11th AFC East title in a row by beating Buffalo 24-17 on Saturday.

With Bills visiting for a rare late-season matchup while the division was still at stake, Sony Michel ran for 96 yards and Rex Burkhead rebounded for an opening-drive fumble to catch four passes for 77 yards and run for 20 more. Both teams had already clinched playoff berths; the Patriots (12-3) remain in contention for a first-round bye or even the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Josh Allen completed 13 of 26 passes for 208 yards and ran for 43 more, including a first down on fourth-and-1 from the Patriots 30 with about three minutes left. After driving to the New England 8, Allen over threw Dawson Knox in the end zone and then was sacked by Adam Butler. Facing fourth-and-goal from the 15 with just over one minute left, he was forced out of the pocket and had to throw the ball up for grabs in the end zone, where it was knocked down by J.C. Jackson.

Cole Beasley caught seven passes for 108 yards, and John Brown had a 53-yard touchdown reception for the Bills (10-5), who have qualified for the playoffs for the second time since 1999. They have not won a playoff game since 1995, following their last division title, when Marv Levy's team beat Don Shula's Miami Dolphins in the wild-card round.

Brady, who is 42 and nursing a right elbow injury, improved to 32-3 against the Bills, and Buffalo hasn't beaten the Patriots in six games under coach Sean McDermott. This one was clinched when Burkhead ran it in from 1 yard with 5:11 left; Brady found Julian Edelman for the 2-point conversion to make it a seven-point game.

49ERS 34, RAMS 31

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - Jimmy Garoppolo converted a pair of conversions on third-and-16 to set up Robbie Gould's game-winning 33-yard field goal with no time left and San Francisco eliminated defending NFC champion Los Angeles from playoff contention with a victory.

Garoppolo made up for a mostly pedestrian game for the 49ers (12-3) by delivering two big throws on the final drive after taking his fifth and sixth sacks.

He found Kendrick Bourne on an 18-yard pass over the middle to convert the first long third down and then hit Emmanuel Sanders behind a blown coverage for 46 yards to set up the winning kick.

The Niners then ran out on the field to celebrate while the Rams (8-7) were eliminated with the loss. Minnesota became the fifth team to clinch a berth in the NFC with Dallas and Philadelphia battling for the final spot.

The victory kept the Niners in control in the race for the NFC's top seed and home-field advantage throughout. They still need to win next week at Seattle to win the NFC West, otherwise they will be relegated to wild-card status.

Garoppolo finished 16 for 27 for 248 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.

Jared Goff connected on a 22-yard TD pass to Cooper Kupp in the third quarter to put the Rams ahead 28-24.

TEXANS 23, BUCCANEERS 20

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Bradley Roby returned one of Jameis Winstonâ??s four interceptions for a touchdown and Kaâ??imi Fairburn snapped a fourth-quarter tie with his third field goal, lifting Houston over Tampa Bay and its fourth AFC South title in five years.

Roby raced 27 yards up the right sideline after picking off Winstonâ??s first pass of the game, the sixth pick-6 the Bucs quarterback has thrown this season. Jahleel Addaeâ??s interception with 1:27 remaining, ended any realistic chance the Bucs had of fully overcoming Winstonâ??s mistakes.

The Texans (10-5) won despite not getting an especially sharp performance from Deshaun Watson, who completed 19 of 32 passes for 184 yards and one interception. The Bucs (7-8) sacked him five times and held Houston to one offensive TD on Carlos Hydeâ??s 1-yard run in the second quarter.

The Texans ended Tampa Bay's four-game winning streak and are AFC South champions for the second straight year. They join the Patriots and Chiefs as the only teams with four division titles since 2015.

A week after becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for more than 450 yards in consecutive games, Winston was 25 of 48 for 335 yards and one touchdown. He tossed an interception on Tampa Bayâ??s opening drive for the fifth time in seven games, and nearly watched Houston go up 14-0 when Justin Reid intercepted him on the Bucsâ?? next possession.

Instead, the Texans settled for a field goal after a penalty for a blindside block negated what also would have been a 27-yard return for a TD. Hydeâ??s TD, set up by Peyton Barberâ??s fumble, put the Texans up 17-3.

A resilient Winston rallied the Bucs with a pair of touchdowns in the last two minutes of the opening half to make it 17-17. The teams traded third-quarter field goals, setting the stage for Watson to move the Texans into position for the go-ahead points, Fairburnâ??s 37-yard field goal with 7:11 remaining.

[StarDust Bum]

nfl december opinions and best bets: All based on 5 units

date........................... W-l-t............ %................ Units


12/21/2019...................1-4-1.........25.00%...........-17.00
12/16/2019...................2-0-0........100.00%..........+10.00
12/15/2019.................9-18-1..........33.33%...........-54.00
12/12/2019...................2-0-0.........100.00%.........+10.00
12/09/2019...................1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
12/08/2019................12-12-2..........50.00%..........-6.00
12/01/2019..................7-10-1..........41.18%..........-20.00

totals.........................34-45-5..........43.03%..........-77.50


best bets:

Date........................ats.............units. ............o/u...............units.............totals

12/21/2019..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............1 - 2.............-6.00...............-11.50
12/16/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/15/2019...............1 - 8.............-39.00.............5 - 6..............-8.00...............-47.00
12/12/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/09/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.50..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
12/08/2019...............6 - 3.............+13.50............4 - 4..............-2.00...............+11.50
12/01/2019...............6 - 6..............-3.00..............1 - 4..............-17.00..............-20.00

totals.......................15 - 18..........-18.50.............13 - 17..........-28.50...............-47.00

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 16 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Arizona +9.5 (781)

5) Tennessee +3 (813)

4) Green Bay +5.5 (829)

3) Kansas City -6.5 (845)

2) Houston -3 (907)- T

1) Buffalo +6.5 (909)- L

2019 record: 48-39-4

Quote of the Day:
“They literally got me through a season. Through the toughest part of my life.”
Arkansas State football coach Blake Anderson, whose wife passed away in August. His Red Wolves won their bowl game 34-26 over FIU Saturday

Sunday’s quiz
Where did Houston Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson play his college football?

Saturday’s quiz
Kevin Durant broke into the NBA with the Seattle SuperSonics, a year before they moved to Oklahoma and became the Thunder.

Friday’s quiz
CBS/FS1 basketball analyst Bill Raftery was once the basketball coach at Seton Hall.

**************************

Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

13) Texans 23, Bucs 20:
— Houston clinches the AFC South with this win.
— Texans’ first TD scored on a pick-6.
— Houston had three FG’s, only one TD on four drives to red zone.

— Bucs’ first five possessions: three INT’s, a FG and a blocked FG.
— Tampa Bay outgained Houston, 435-229.
— If Jameis Winston played for the Rams, I’d have a nervous breakdown.

12) Patriots 24, Bills 17:
— Buffalo lost 16-10/24-17 in its two games vs NE this season.
— Bills are already in playoffs, will likely play winner of AFC South in Wild Card.
— Buffalo was only 2-11 on third down, Patriots 7-14.

— New England clinches AFC East, has game lead over KC for the #2 seed.
— Patriots lost field position by 7 yards, only 3rd time that happened this year.
— NE’s 2nd half possessions: 4 drives, 28 plays, 182 yards, TD, two FG’s.

11) 49ers 34, Rams 31:
— Rams’ first five drives: 209 yards, three TD’s.
— Rams’ last eight drives: 167 yards, one TD/one FG/one pick-6
— Rams are 1-3 this year in games decided by 6 or fewer points.

— Gould kicked a 33-yard FG at the gun for the win.
— 49ers are half-game up on Seattle in NFC West; they play next week.
— This was SF’s 4th game in row decided by 3 or fewer points, or in last 0:10.

10) Colorado 78, Dayton 76 OT— Buffs hit a 3 at the buzzer to win this game, which was a lot like an NCAA tourney game; two good teams on a neutral floor.

Dayton led 19-5 early on, trailed by 8 with 7:51 left. They could meet again in March.

9) St John’s 68, Arizona 67— This game was part of the Al Attles Classic in San Francisco; Attles coached the Warriors when they won the 1974 NBA title, when their best player was Rick Barry, one of the most underrated basketball players ever.

Bill Walton was the TV analyst on this game; he spoke the truth when he talked about how Barry is one of the 10-12 best players ever. He was as good as Larry Bird, but he played before the NBA took off inn popularity and before ESPN began in the early 80’s.

Mike Anderson is doing a nice job in his first year at St John’s; they’re 11-2 after this upset win.

8) Ohio State 71, Kentucky 65— Wildcats are 8-3 vs schedule #310; they were outscored 21-8 on foul line, are shooting 27.8% on arc this year (#323). Meanwhile, John Calipari’s son Brad plays for the Detroit Titans, where he is shooting 45.3% on the arc this year- go figure.

7) College basketball upsets:
— Florida A&M (+13.5) 71, Seattle 57
— St John’s (+11) 68, Arizona 67
— North Dakota (+9) 75, Nebraska 74
— Northwestern State (+7.5) 67, Lamar 61
— Green Bay (+6.5) 85, Northern Illinois 84
— Texas A&M (+6.5) 64, Oregon State 49
— Colorado (+5.5) 78, Dayton 76 OT

6) Villanova 56, Kansas 55— Wildcats hit a 3-pointer with 0:24 left for the win. Kansas is the 5th team to lose this year while ranked #1 in country. Gonzaga becomes the new #1.

5) Baseball stuff:
— White Sox signed P Dallas Keuchel to a 3-year, $55.5M contract.
— Detroit signed 1B CJ Cron, 2B Jonathan Schoop to 1-year, $6.1M contracts. Tigers will be Schoop’s 4th team in four years.

4) Florida State 66, South Florida 60— Seminoles ended game on a 21-3 run; South Florida pretty much imploded down the stretch- they led 57-47 with 6:20 left.

3) Colorado State 111, Tulsa 104, 3OT— Rams blew an 8-point lead with 1:08 left in regulation, then rallied back from down 89-86 with 0:59 left in first OT. Rams were minus-8 in turnovers; they had three guys play 46:00+.

2) One of the reasons a lot of college basketball teams like to play these neutral court games just before Christmas, is that it is legal for them to pay for kids’ trips home from the neutral site to wherever the player lives, os he can have a few days off for Christmas.

1) Good news is that tonight it starts getting dark later every day; its all downhill until spring. Lot of bowl games and college hoop coming up in the next week, as 2019 winds down to its end.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
December 20, 2019
By Micah Roberts

One of the most popular sides bet by respected money in Sunday’s Week 16 NFL action has been the Titans at home against the Saints.

The Saints are fighting for home field in the NFC while the Titans might already know if their playoff hopes have been wiped away if the Texans win at Tampa Bay, one of three NFL games played on Saturday.

”They took the Titans at +3 and +3 -120, so I moved it to +2 making us the lowest number in the market,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. “I skipped 2.5 just because I wanted to get to where I thought it was going quicker.”

Jason McCormick of Station Casinos and Chris Andrews at the South Point both said the Titans were one of their most bet games by sharp money.

The attraction with the Titans could simply be a matter of taking the home +3, the most key number in the NFL or it could be the Saints playing on a short week coming off an emotional game with Drew Brees passing Peyton Manning for the all-time record in TD passes.

But the possible emotions of the Titans being eliminated has to mean something to the number. We’ll see where the number goes if the Texans win Saturday, something that large money has already bet will happen.

“They bet the Texans at -2 and -2.5 and we’re at -3 (-120) now,” DiTommaso said. “I don’t get the total move in that game. They’ve been betting the Buccaneers under the past few weeks for some reason. We’re looking to stay ahead of the market at 50.5 and we’ll wait for one more large bet on it to drop it lower.”

The Buccaneers have gone over the total in 11 of their last 12 games and their defense allows 31 ppg at home, but the main driving force for the high scores has been Jameis Winston, who has thrown for over 450 yards in his last two starts. All season long Winston throws a bunch of interceptions allowing opponents several short field opportunities and then he throws three or four TD passes, and lately, he’s been winning. The Bucs have won their last four games as Winston auditions for a new contract.

“They (sharp money) laid -5.5 and -6 with the Chargers (vs. Raiders) and also -6.5 with the Broncos (vs. Lions),” DiTommaso said.

Most books have some variation of -7 with the Chargers while MGM books were holding onto -6.5 (-120) as of Friday afternoon. Both teams come in off lousy performances, and once again for the Chargers, home-field at Carson, CA, we can expect the opponent to have the home-field advantage. Expect Raider Nation to have a sea of black in the stands, for whatever that’s worth. Again, there is no home field value to the number. In fact, you could probably add +1 to the Raiders for the home-field.

The Lions have lost seven straight and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine. The Broncos have looked good in their last three, winning two of them. The 38-24 win at Houston three weeks ago was their most impressive win of the season with the offense, defense, and special teams all playing key roles.

CG books also saw respected money come in on the Steelers (-3 at the Jets) and Bengals (-1 at Miami). “They took +1 and pick with the Bengals,” DiTommaso said. The South Point has also taken sharp bets on the Bengals.

Westgate Superbook VP Jay Kornegay has seen his most sharp wagers on the Steelers, Titans, and Eagles (+3 vs. Cowboys).

Eagles money has forced every book to move with the lowest number being Cowboys -1.5 at MGM books. If the Cowboys win, they’ll win the NFC East. It’s probably the biggest game of Carson Wentz’s NFL career.

The top four public plays are just about the same everywhere. Books will be sweating all the parlays with the Chiefs (-6 at Chicago), Saints, Ravens (-10 at Cleveland), and 49ers (-6.5 vs. Rams).

The Chiefs have won and covered their last four games, while also staying under in all four. That’s a nice two-team, side-to-total parlay at 13-to-5 odds that could be active again with the Bears solid defense and improved Chiefs' defense. But the public weight on this game is something to consider with taking the points and Bears at home. Because it’s going to be the last NFL game posted Sunday night, the risk is going to be one-sided.

“We’re going to need to beat the Chiefs Sunday night and we’ll need the Packers on Monday as well,” said DiTommaso.

The Vikings are 5.5-point home favorites Monday night against the Packers after opening -4.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 16
December 21, 2019
By Joe Williams

We have two more weekends remaining in the National Football League regular season before the 'real' season starts - the playoffs. The field for the postseason is starting to come together, and in the next week we'll face the specter of certain teams resting. Week 16 won't have any teams resting, but depending on the results this weekend, we might see a handful of teams holding out key elements.

2019 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 15 10-6 8-8 11-5
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 110-113-1 108-115-1 101-118-5

Bettors crushed it on the totals in Week 15, hitting the over in 10 of the 16 games. The public loves 'over' results, too. We'll see if they have nearly the same kind of success in the final two weekends of the National Football League regular season. The first half total results went 8-8 last week but the offensive units finished strong as the 'over' went 11-5 in the second-half. Through 15 weeks of action, the 'under' has trended ahead the first-half (115-108-1), and in the second-half (118-101-5).

Division Bell
In the four divisional battles in Week 15, the edge went to the 'under' once again - including the two AFC divisional matchups. The under is now 43-34 (55.8%) in divisional games this season.

DIVISIONAL GAME RESULTS WEEK 15
Philadelphia at Washington Over (38.5) Philadelphia 37, Washington 27
Chicago at Green Bay Under (41) Green Bay 21, Chicago 13
Houston at Tennessee Under (50.5) Houston 24, Tennessee 21
Denver at Kansas City Under (43) Kansas City 23, Denver 3

Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 16 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Arizona at Seattle: 48 ½ to 51
Oakland at L.A. Chargers: 47 to 45
Dallas at Philadelphia: 47 ½ to 46
Jacksonville at Atlanta: 46 to 47 ½
N.Y. Giants at Washington: 43 to 41 ½
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: 38 ½ to 37

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 16 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Jacksonville at Atlanta: Over 94%
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: Under 93%
Oakland at L.A. Chargers: Under 92%
Baltimore at Cleveland: Under 85%
Carolina at Indianapolis: Over 84%
N.Y. Giants at Washington: Over 79%
Dallas at Philadelphia: Under 77%
Cincinnati at Miami: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (74 percent) in the Arizona at Seattle matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Green Bay at Minnesota (MNF) (72 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 16

WEEK 15 TOTAL RESULTS
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 32-41
NFC vs. NFC 4-0 26-22
AFC vs. AFC 2-2 22-21-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-1 30-28

Week 16 Action

Jacksonville at Atlanta: The Jaguars and Falcons hook up in Atlanta in a 'pride' game, as there isn't anything on the line other than that. The Jags have posted an over in five of their past seven as an underdog, including 4-1 in the past five as a road 'dog. Jacksonville has struggle defensively, although last week they showed well allowing just 16 points. In the past six weeks they're still allowing 31.7 points per game (PPG). The Falcons are coming off an impressive win at San Francisco last week, and have shown some fight down the stretch as they try to do enough to potentially save the job of head coach Dan Quinn. The over is 4-1 in their past five as a favorite, and 4-1 in the past five against teams with a losing record. The Falcons have hit the 'over' in three of the past four overall, too, averaging 27.3 PPG while allowing 25.8 PPG.

New Orleans at Tennessee: These Saints have no issues offensively, but it's hard to know which defense is going to show up. In the past five weeks they have scored 24, 46, 26, 34 and 34. During the same span they have allowed 7, 48, 18, 31 and 17. The Jekyll and Hyde performance by the D makes it hard to play them on the total. AS you would expect, the over/under is 3-3 in their six games on the road this season, too. For the Titans, they fired out of the box defensively, but lately the defense has been susceptible to points. They have yielded 20 or more points in seven of the past eight, including last week's 24-21 loss at home to the Texans. However, that game went 'under', snapping a seven-game 'over' run for Tennessee. The 'over' has hit in each of their past two against NFC South Division foes, too, averaging 23.5 PPG while yielding 26.5 PPG, including a 27-23 win over the Bucs on Oct. 27.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: The Giants and Redskins hook up on Sunday. These teams met back on Sept. 29, and the Redskins lost 24-3 in the rain and slop in New Jersey. QB Daniel Jones returns under center this week for the G-Men after QB Eli Manning returned under center for the past two outings. The offense rolled up 36 points last week against the Dolphins, but they're back to the rookie anyway. Intheir past two road games the 'under' has connected. For the Redskins, the 'over' cashed in their 37-27 loss against the Eagles at home, and the 'over' is 4-3 in the past seven games at FedEx Field for the 'Skins. Their offense has resembled an NFL-caliber offense lately, averaging 22.5 PPG over the past four outings. Unfortunately for Washington, the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG over the past three. The over is 7-2 in New York's past nine on the road, but the under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in D.C. and 5-1 in the past six meetings overall in this series.

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: The Steelers look to keep their push for an AFC wild-card playoff spot alive, and old friend RB Le'Veon Bell stands in their way. The Steelers enter this game on a 6-0 'under' run, while hitting in 11 of their 14 games overall. Points have been at a premium for the black and gold, as they're doing it with defense. Pittsburgh has posted 10, 23, 20, 16, 7 and 17 over their past six games while yielding 17, 17, 13, 10, 21 and 12 during the same span. For the Jets, they have averaged 21.5 PPG over the past two games, including 21 points against the Ravens in Baltimore last Thursday, a rare 'over' lately for Gang Green. The 'under' is 3-0 in their past three Sunday games, as they're averaging 20.7 PPG while yielding 15.3 PPG from Weeks 12 through 14.

Cincinnati at Miami: The Bengals have 'sucked for Burrow', or whatever you want to call the race for the No. 1 pick. They haven't scored more than 23 in any one game this season, and they have scored 19 or fewer points in 11 of their 14 games overall. It's no surprise that the 'under' is 8-5-1 for Cincinnati, including 6-1 in their seven games on the road. For the Dolphins, they started the season as a laughingstock, but they haven't given up and have kept working hard down the stretch, winning a few games along the way. They're on a season-high streak with five straight games of 20 or more points, although the defense continues to be rather awful. Miami has posted 20, 21, 37, 24 and 20 over the past five outings, while giving up 36, 22, 31, 41 and 37 during the same five-game span. As such, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five outings. The over is 2-1 in Miami's three games vs. AFC North clubs this season, too.

Carolina at Indianapolis: The offense of the Panthers will be a bit of an unknown this week. Rookie QB Will Grier will make his first-career start, as Carolina rolls the dice and sees what the rookie can do. Carolina has posted 24, 20, 21 and 31 over the past four weeks, as offense hasn't exactly been the issue. Defensively is where the Panthers have had trouble, yielding 30, 40, 29, 34 and 29 across the past five, with the 'over' cashing in four in a row. Indy registered just seven points in last week's game on Monday in New Orleans, as QB Jacoby Brissett looked very ordinary and the Colts almost didn't score. In their seven home games the 'over' has connected in five outings, however.

Detroit at Denver: The Broncos had been humming along with 61 total points in two games in Week 12 and 13 under rookie QB Drew Lock. However, the Broncos didn't fare very well in the snow in Kansas City, scoring just three points in a 20-point loss for the 'under'. The total is 3-3 for Denver this season, although it has cashed in two in a row in the Mile High City. The Lions have stumbled offensively under QB David Blough since Thanksgiving, posting 17, 7, 20 in his past three games. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three road games for Detroit, too, averaging just 12.0 PPG while allowing only 19.7 PPG during the same span defensively.

Oakland at L.A. Chargers: This used to be Oakland vs. San Diego. Then for a while it was L.A. vs. San Diego. Then Oakland vs. San Diego again. This is the final Oakland vs. L.A. matchup, as soon it will be Las Vegas vs. L.A. It will take some getting used to. The Raiders have really struggled offensively, as they already look like they're dreaming of Vegas lately. They have scored 16, 21, 9, 3 and 17 across the past five outings, hitting the 'under' in four of those outings. They did hit the 'over' in a 26-24 win over the Bolts back on Nov. 7 in a Thursday night game in Oakland, however. The Bolts have hit the 'over' in three in a row, although they've taken different routes to do it. They lost last week 39-10, they won 45-10 on the road the week before, and had a narrow 23-20 loss in Week 12. Inconsistency is no surprise for the Bolts, and one of the reasons they're on the outside looking in heading to the playoffs.

Dallas at Philadelphia: The Cowboys rolled up 44 points at home against the Rams, their second straight 'over' result, as they look to keep their NFC East playoff hopes alive. This game is essentially a playoff game, as the winner likely wins the division, with the loser out in the cold. Ths first meeting between these teams resulted in a 37-10 whitewashing by the Cowboys in Jerry World back on Oct. 20, hitting the 'under' in the process. While the offense has been pretty impressive lately for the Cowboys, the defense leaves a lot to be desired. They have yielded 21, 31, 26, 13, 27 and 28 across the past six outings, and the 'over' is 5-2 in their past seven, and 7-3 in the previous 10. The 'over' is 7-1 in the past eight divisional games for the 'Boys, while the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five home games for the Eagles and 4-1 in the past five as a home 'dogs. The under is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings in Philadelphia.

Heavy Expectations
There are two games listed with a spread of nine points or more for Week 16, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 49.5 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Browns stunned the Ravens 40-25 back in Week 4 in Charm City, easily the finest showing of the entire season for the disppointing Browns. Don't think Baltimore forgot about it. They can clinch the AFC North and the No. 1 seed overall in the conference with a victory. They're heavily favored to do so. In their only game this season as underdog of more than a touchdown, they're 0-1 SU/ATS. The Browns have scored 24, 27, 13 and 41 over the past four outings, while yielding 38, 19, 20 and 24, hitting the 'over' in three of the four outings. For Baltimore, it's been all offense all the time, hitting for 20 or more points in every game this season. As a favorite of seven or more points, the 'over' is 4-2 for the Ravens, including 2-0 in the past two instances. The over hit in the first meeting this season between these teams, and the over is 5-1 in Baltimore's past six divisional games, and 5-1 in their past six as a road favorite, too.

Arizona at Seattle (4:25 p.m. ET): The Cardinals are huge 'dogs in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. These teams met back in Week 4, and the Seahawks came home from the desert with a 27-10 win and an 'under' result. The Cardinals have been a bit erratic lately, posting 38, 17, 7 and 25 over the past four outings, with the defense yielding 21 or more points in each of their games this season. The Seahawks have also been a bit inconsistent lately, going for 30, 12, 36 and 17 over the past four outings, so it's no surprise the over/under is 2-2 during the four-game span. Defensively, the Seahawks have allowed an un-Seattle-like 20 or more points in all but two of their games this season , including three of their four divisional games. Of course, as mentioned, the Cardinals scored just 10 in the first meeting, the second-lowest offensive total of any opponent. In games where the Seahawks are favored by 5.5 or more points, the under is 3-1 this season.

Under the Lights

Kansas City at Chicago (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Chiefs and Bears will do battle on Sunday Night Football, as even though the Bears no longer have a shot at a playoff spot, the NBC execs liked the appeal of a Patrick Mahomes-Mitchell Trubisky battle, apparently. The Bears were dusted 21-13 at Green Bay last week, and have hit the 'under' in six of their past eight outings. For Chicago, they're 2-1 in three games vs. AFC West foes this eason, and the under is 3-1 in their past four games at home, too. The Chiefs are on a 4-0 'under' run lately, as the defense has stepped up with totals of 3, 16, 9 and 17 allowed. The Bears don't figure to do much more than that. The under is 3-1 in Kansas City's past four games on the road, too, so the SNF might be a defensive slog.

Green Bay at Minnesota (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Packers and Vikings will square off at U.S. Bank Stadium in the Twin Cities in what could be an entertaining MNF battle. These teams squared off in Week 2, and it was the Pack coming away with a 21-16 win and 'under' result. The under hasn't been a frequent occurrence for the Vikings lately, as the 'over' is 5-1 in the past six games, and 7-2 in the previous nine outings. The under is 2-1 in Minnesota's past three at home, however, and the under cashed in their only other primetime home game back on Oct. 24 against the Redskins, a 19-9 win. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this series, and a perfect 5-0 in the past five meetings in the Twin Cities.

Fearless Predictions
It wasn't a terrible Week 15, but another week of breaking even. A result of (-$10) was disappointing, missing the teaser yet again, as I continue to search for that elusive sweep. The deficit is down to (-$495) for the season. We'll look to keep it going in Week 16, hopefully getting back in black soon before it's all over. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-L.A. Chargers 45
Best Under: Green Bay-Minnesota 47
Best First-Half Under: Dallas-Philadelphia 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 38 Oakland-L.A. Chargers
Under 54 Green Bay-Minnesota
Under 56 Baltimore-Cleveland

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 16
December 21, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Saints (-2, 49 ½) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST
The team that will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl is anybody’s guess. The same can be said on who will have home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs as Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, and New Orleans all own identical 11-4 records with two games remaining. The Saints (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) have already wrapped up the NFC South title, but New Orleans is seeking at least a first-round bye as it needs to win out and receive some help as it loses tiebreakers with San Francisco and Green Bay.

New Orleans is eyeing a perfect 4-0 mark against the AFC South after routing Indianapolis this past Monday, 34-7 to easily cash as eight-point favorites. Quarterback Drew Brees broke Peyton Manning’s all-time passing touchdowns record with four touchdown tosses, while the Saints avoided back-to-back losses for the first time since 2017. The Saints hit the highway for the final two games of the season (next week at Carolina), as New Orleans owns a solid 5-1 SU/ATS road mark with the lone loss coming to the Rams in Week 2 when Brees sustained a thumb injury.

The Titans (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) were dealt a huge blow to their playoff hopes after falling to the Texans at home last Sunday, 24-21. Tennessee suffered its first home loss with Ryan Tannehill starting at quarterback in five tries, while its OVER streak of seven straight games ended. The Titans can still make the playoffs with a pair of wins and at least one Pittsburgh loss, as Tennessee enters Sunday’s action by owning a 4-2 SU/ATS record as a home underdog under head coach Mike Vrabel, which includes a 35-32 triumph over Kansas City in Week 10.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Saints 24

Steelers (-3, 37) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST
In spite of falling to the Bills last Sunday night, the Steelers (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) are still in a prime spot to grab the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh has allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games, while the UNDER has cashed in six consecutive contests. The Steelers are sticking with quarterback Devlin Hodges in spite of him throwing four interceptions against Buffalo, as Pittsburgh has won three of its past four games away from Heinz Field.

The Jets (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS) have caught fire at home recently by winning four of their past five games at MetLife Stadium. Running back Le’Veon Bell squares off against his former team for the first time on Sunday, as the ex-Steeler has racked up only 676 yards on the ground, compared to back-to-back nearly 1,300-yard seasons in 2016 and 2017. The Jets have not defeated a team with a winning record this season as New York is coming off a 42-21 setback at Baltimore in Week 15, ending a three-game ATS hot streak in the underdog role.

Pittsburgh has taken care of its business against teams with losing records this season by compiling a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark, while going 2-0 SU/ATS in the role of a road favorite. The Jets own a 3-1 SU/ATS record in the past four opportunities as a home underdog, with the lone loss coming to the Patriots in Week 7. Pittsburgh is facing New York on the road for the first time since 2014, while the Steelers won the previous matchup with the Jets in 2016 at Heinz Field.

Best Bet: Steelers 16, Jets 14


Cowboys (-2, 45 ½) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST
The NFC East title comes down to Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field between a pair of 7-7 teams. Dallas (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) can wrap up the division championship with a victory as it would own the tiebreaker over Philadelphia. The Cowboys ended a three-game skid in last Sunday’s 44-21 rout of the Rams, as Dallas scored 30 unanswered points after the game was tied at 7-7. Dallas ran all over the L.A. defense for 263 yards, the most yards on the ground for the Cowboys since Week 9 against the Giants (172 yards).

The Eagles (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) were 5-7 two weeks ago, but victories over the Giants and Redskins have put them in a position to win the NFC East. Two wins for Philadelphia and it clinches the division, but the Eagles have not been convincing the last two games as they rallied from a 17-0 deficit to shock the Giants in overtime, followed by the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute to beat Washington. However, the Eagles did cover as seven-point favorites thanks to a fumble return for a touchdown as time expired for a 37-27 triumph, snapping a four-game ATS slide.

Dallas has won eight consecutive division battles against NFC East foes, while posting a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Included in that flawless mark is the 37-10 rout by Dallas at AT&T Stadium in Week 7 as three-point home favorites. Dallas is riding a four-game hot streak against Philadelphia since 2017, which includes victories at Lincoln Financial Field in each of the past two seasons.

Best Bet: Eagles 23, Cowboys 20

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 37-37-1 this season)
Lions +7
Jaguars +7
Colts -7
Cardinals +9 ½
Bears +6 ½

Chris David (4-1 last week, 41-34 this season)
Chargers -7
Eagles +2 ½
Seahawks -9 ½
Bears +6 ½
Vikings -5 ½

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 45 ½ - Raiders at Chargers
The Chargers are playing their final game in Carson before moving into their new stadium in Los Angeles next season along with the Rams. The Lightning Bolts welcome in the rival Raiders, who lost in their home finale at the Coliseum to the Jaguars. In that defeat, Oakland was limited to fewer than 21 points for the fifth consecutive game, while cashing the UNDER for the fourth time in this span. The Chargers were blown out by the Vikings last week as Los Angeles turned the ball over seven times. In the first matchup between the Chargers and Raiders in Oakland, the Silver and Black won 26-24, snapping a five-game UNDER run between the AFC West rivals.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE
In the two worst matchups of the week, we’ll highlight both these line moves with the road squad receiving attention. The Giants opened as 2 ½-point road underdogs against the Redskins, but that line has shifted to a pick-em at the Westgate Superbook. Rookie Daniel Jones will start for the Giants in place of Eli Manning after the former Duke standout missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, the Dolphins were listed as a favorite for the first time this season as short one-point chalk, but that line has flipped to Cincinnati laying 1 ½ points at the Westgate. If you play those games, best of luck.

TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Seahawks are on their way to an NFC West title as they need two home wins to accomplish that feat. Seattle hosts Arizona on Sunday as the Seahawks have already blown out the Cardinals once on the road back in Week 4. However, the Cards own a 4-1-1 ATS on the highway this season, including covers against the Ravens and Buccaneers. Arizona has cashed in each of its past four visits to CenturyLink Field, while Seattle hasn’t been this heavy of a favorite since Week 1 against Cincinnati as the Seahawks won that game by one point.


Sunday will mark the 10th time this season that a rookie quarterback will be listed as a favorite. These QB’s have compiled a 3-6 SU/ATS record, which include the likes of Arizona’s Kyler Murray, New York’s Daniel Jones, Washington’s Dwayne Haskins, and Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew. Denver rookie Drew Lock is listed as a seven-point favorite when the Broncos face the Lions, as it is the highest chalk number for Denver this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 16
December 21, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 12-0 ATS (12.67 ppg) since Jan 04, 2014 on the road when they covered by at least six points last game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.95 ppg) since Jan 16, 2010 as a road dog off a game as a dog where they covered by at least seven points.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 7-0-1 ATS (7.44 ppg) since Jan 03, 2016 coming off a game where Drew Brees threw for at least 10 yards per attempt.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:
-- The Cowboys are 11-0 ATS (8.82 ppg) since Sep 10, 2017 as a favorite when playing a divisional opponent.

-- The Buccaneers are 15-0 OU (9.70 ppg) since Oct 30, 2016 as a dog when more than 50 points were scored in their last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-7 OU (-7.79 ppg) since Dec 24, 2017 coming off a loss where Mitchell Trubisky threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Panthers are 17-0 OU (11.71 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as an underdog of more than six points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-21 OU (-7.17 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 coming off a game where they had less than 215 passing yards.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-11 ATS (-8.50 ppg) as a favorite off a loss as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Browns are 0-17 OU (-8.97 ppg) at home off a loss when they are facing a team that is getting less than 55% of their first downs passing.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 16
December 22, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Saints (-2.5/47) at Titans, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With Houston having wrapped up the AFC South, it’s now not a given that Tennessee star RB Derrick Henry will continue to play through the hamstring injury that has been bothering him for weeks. He was downgraded to ‘questionable’ despite practicing on Friday as the Bucs’ coughed up an opportunity to tie or win the game late. The Titans can still finish as the AFC’s final wild card, so we’ll see if Henry opts to play if he wakes up feeling well. Count on Dion Lewis, Khari Blasingame and Dalyn Dawkins, just elevated to the active roster, to divide the touches if Henry ultimately doesn’t add to his league-leading 271 rushing attempts. Corner Adoree Jackson and WR Adam Humphries have been ruled out for Tennessee while DL Jeffery Simmons is listed as questionable.

New Orleans will be playing its first game outdoors since a Nov. 17 win in Tampa and will be playing just their second in seven outings. The Saints are 4-1 SU and ATS with the elements involved but may have to deal with a little rain in Nashville. Ironically, they’ll have to fare well outdoors to ensure most of their playoff run comes In the friendly enclosed confines of the Superdome. Drew Brees looks to build off on his record-setting Monday night but offensive linemen Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk have all missed been listed as questionable while guard Larry Warford hasn’t practiced. New Orleans is hoping for help from Minnesota against Green Bay on Monday night since it remains in the mix for a No. 1 seed, so this is a very important game for this group. RB Alvin Kamara hasn’t scored since Week 3, but he and Latavius Murray could have big days here to lighten Brees’ load if it’s raining. Michael Thomas has 133 receptions and needs just 11 to set the single-season record. The total has come down from 50.5 but the number has held steady despite uncertainty over Henry.

Steelers (-3/37) at Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: JuJu Smith-Schuster announced on his Instagram that he’d be returning for the first time since Nov. 14, which means QB Devlin Hodges will be able to work with a receiving corps that’s at full strength for the first time since taking over as the full-time starter. He has performed better on the road than he has at home, helping beat the Chargers, Bengals and Cardinals. None of those teams have a winning record, but neither do the Jets, who can finish only 7-9 if they win out with an upset here and against a Bills team that’s already locked into the No. 5 spot and may not play many starters next week. As far as this week goes, New York will get back safety Jamal Adams back to anchor the defense and has a motivated LeVeon Bell helping take pressure off Sam Darnold.

The Steelers are looking to earn a wild card spot and have to play at the Ravens next week, making this a must-win. Head coach Mike Tomlin stuck with Hodges despite his four interceptions last week, pondering a return to Mason Rudolph. There’s no question that a quick hook is certainly possible, but the Hodges will probably get a fairly long leash unless he turns the ball over since the team simply needs him to not be a burden considering he’s at the helm of the league’s 30th-ranked offense. Ultimately, Pittsburgh is still banking on its defense to create turnovers against Darnold, who has been at his best at home but leads in the 31st-ranked offense against a Pittsburgh group that leads the NFL in sacks (49) and ranks second in takeaways (35). The total has dipped from 38.5 to 37. Tight end Vance McDonald is set to return for the Steelers.

Ravens (-10/49) at Browns, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Baltimore can wrap up homefield advantage for the entire AFC postseason if it picks up a victory here against one of the two teams it has lost to this season. The Ravens have rolled off 10 straight wins since suffering their only home loss, falling 40-25 to close out September. Cleveland ranks 27th in the NFL in rush defense and will look to stop the league’s most effective ground attack, so Lamar Jackson is a good bet to significantly add to his total of 1,103 rushing yards, an all-time single-season record for a quarterback. Baltimore has scored a league-best 33.7 points per game, average 202.1 yards on the ground and has already notched the most touchdowns (58) it has managed in any given season.

The dysfunctional Browns look to finish the season as effectively as they can and are hoping to close their home schedule with a 5-3 record. WR Odell Beckham, Jr. will play through a groin injury and Jarvis Landry is dealing with a hip issue that may require offseason surgery. DT Sheldon Richardson didn’t practice earlier in the week due to a back problem but hopes to play, while center J.C. Tretter is dealing with a knee issue for an offensive line that has numerous bumps and bruises. Nick Chubb has a league-high 1,408 yards rushing, so count on the clock running throughout this contest given how often we’ll see the ball on the ground. Temperatures will be in the 40s and wind gusts of 10-to-15 miles per hour shouldn’t be overly intrusive.

Raiders at Chargers (-7.5/45.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: This game may carry no playoff implications by the time these kick off, but these vagabond franchises are still vying to finish second in the AFC West, making this one of the more attractive matchups in the late afternoon block. Oakland opens the day alive to reach the playoffs and is looking to snap a four-game losing streak. Jon Gruden’s team has managed just 12 points in the second half of games over the past five games, while L.A. is finally escaping the plight of playing in a soccer stadium where most of the fans root for the visiting team. Although the Raiders are moving to Las Vegas and played their final contest in Oakland last week, they’ll probably have more fans in Carson than the Chargers, who have gone 11-10 in their temporary home since moving to San Diego.

Rain will add to the festivities as these teams square off with a backdrop of it being the second-to-last game that Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon suit up in for the Chargers. The talented running back fumbled twice last week but ran for a season-high 108 yards the first time he faced the Raiders, helping lead to a 26-24 Week 10 win. Oakland has failed to cover in five straight weeks and won’t have talented rookie RB Josh Jacobs for Derek Carr to hand the ball to and keep a talented L.A. front seven from coming after the Raiders’ quarterback. He’s being held out with a shoulder injury. DeAndre Washington is expected to get the bulk of the work at tailback.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-9/51), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Seattle will look to remain alive for the No. 1 seed in the entire NFC by taking care of business at home over the next two weeks with division mates Arizona and San Francisco visiting. The Seahawks’ most lopsided win of the season came at Arizona in a 27-10 Week 4 victory. It appears that the team will take the cautious approach with key defensive starters Jadeveon Clowney, Ziggy Ansah, Mychal Hendricks , Quandre Diggs and Shaquill Griffin all potentially sitting. Linebacker Bobby Wagner has been dealing with an ankle injury. Considering that defeating the 49ers next week will give them the West Division regardless of what happens here. Seattle has matched a league-record with 10 wins by eight or fewer points.

The Seahawks are 4-1 in games Diggs has started since Nov. 11 and have been exceptionally effective, so his absence could be an issue against Kyler Murray if the rookie standout can get it going. Kenyan Drake is coming off a four-touchdown game against Cleveland and speedy WR Christian Kirk has been cleared to play, so this could be a much tighter game than you might expect. Rain will likely be part of the equation in the second half of this one, so it wouldn’t be a good idea for either team to start slowly since finding a rhythm in inclement weather is tough to accomplish. A first-half over call would be my recommendation.

Cowboys (-2/46) at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: The most meaningful game on the Sunday slate boils down to Carson Wentz’s ability to keep pace with a top-ranked Dallas offense that has struggled with consistency but dominated the first meeting between these teams, prevailing 37-10 on Oct. 20. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 111 yards and will be given every opportunity to loosen up the Philly defense the way he managed to in last week’s lopsided win over the Rams. Philadelphia has lost all five games he’s suited up for the Cowboys in against Philadelphia. Dallas is looking for consecutive NFC East titles for the first time since 1996.

WR Nelson Agholor is questionable to play for the Eagles, while RB Jordan Howard is also wearing that tag. Tackle Lane Johnson won’t suit up, so Philadelphia will be without one of their top offensive linemen in this one. DE Derek Barnett has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but the hope is that he’ll suit up to try and help contain a Cowboys offense that has helped produce a 7-0 record when they top 30 points but have contributed to an 0-7 mark when they’ve failed to. Weather should be mild as far as December in Philly typically goes, so both attacks are likely to gain traction. Wentz has been able to find a rhythm of late throwing to his tight ends and Greg Ward, Jr., while Dak Prescott has been sharp of late and doesn’t appear on the injury report with his shoulder issue. Cooper Rush would be called upon if Prescott gets banged up.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 22
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NO at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN +3.5
O 48.5

JAC at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL -7.5
U 47.0

BAL at CLE 01:00 PM
CLE +10.5
O 49.5

PIT at NYJ 01:00 PM
PIT -3.5
U 37.0

CIN at MIA 01:00 PM
CIN -1.5
O 45.5

NYG at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +1.0
O 42.0

CAR at IND 01:00 PM
CAR +6.5
O 47.5


********************

OAK at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -7.5
O 45.5

DET at DEN 04:05 PM
DEN -7.5
U 39.0

ARI at SEA 04:25 PM
SEA -8.0
U 51.0

DAL at PHI 04:25 PM
DAL -2.0
U 46.5


***********************

KC at CHI 08:20 PM
CHI +6.5
O 44.5

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 16
Tony Mejia

Saints (-2.5/47) at Titans, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With Houston having wrapped up the AFC South, it’s now not a given that Tennessee star RB Derrick Henry will continue to play through the hamstring injury that has been bothering him for weeks. He was downgraded to ‘questionable’ despite practicing on Friday as the Bucs’ coughed up an opportunity to tie or win the game late. The Titans can still finish as the AFC’s final wild card, so we’ll see if Henry opts to play if he wakes up feeling well. Count on Dion Lewis, Khari Blasingame and Dalyn Dawkins, just elevated to the active roster, to divide the touches if Henry ultimately doesn’t add to his league-leading 271 rushing attempts. Corner Adoree Jackson and WR Adam Humphries have been ruled out for Tennessee while DL Jeffery Simmons is listed as questionable.

New Orleans will be playing its first game outdoors since a Nov. 17 win in Tampa and will be playing just their second in seven outings. The Saints are 4-1 SU and ATS with the elements involved but may have to deal with a little rain in Nashville. Ironically, they’ll have to fare well outdoors to ensure most of their playoff run comes In the friendly enclosed confines of the Superdome. Drew Brees looks to build off on his record-setting Monday night but offensive linemen Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk have all missed been listed as questionable while guard Larry Warford hasn’t practiced. New Orleans is hoping for help from Minnesota against Green Bay on Monday night since it remains in the mix for a No. 1 seed, so this is a very important game for this group. RB Alvin Kamara hasn’t scored since Week 3, but he and Latavius Murray could have big days here to lighten Brees’ load if it’s raining. Michael Thomas has 133 receptions and needs just 11 to set the single-season record. The total has come down from 50.5 but the number has held steady despite uncertainty over Henry.

Steelers (-3/37) at Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: JuJu Smith-Schuster announced on his Instagram that he’d be returning for the first time since Nov. 14, which means QB Devlin Hodges will be able to work with a receiving corps that’s at full strength for the first time since taking over as the full-time starter. He has performed better on the road than he has at home, helping beat the Chargers, Bengals and Cardinals. None of those teams have a winning record, but neither do the Jets, who can finish only 7-9 if they win out with an upset here and against a Bills team that’s already locked into the No. 5 spot and may not play many starters next week. As far as this week goes, New York will get back safety Jamal Adams back to anchor the defense and has a motivated LeVeon Bell helping take pressure off Sam Darnold.

The Steelers are looking to earn a wild card spot and have to play at the Ravens next week, making this a must-win. Head coach Mike Tomlin stuck with Hodges despite his four interceptions last week, pondering a return to Mason Rudolph. There’s no question that a quick hook is certainly possible, but the Hodges will probably get a fairly long leash unless he turns the ball over since the team simply needs him to not be a burden considering he’s at the helm of the league’s 30th-ranked offense. Ultimately, Pittsburgh is still banking on its defense to create turnovers against Darnold, who has been at his best at home but leads in the 31st-ranked offense against a Pittsburgh group that leads the NFL in sacks (49) and ranks second in takeaways (35). The total has dipped from 38.5 to 37. Tight end Vance McDonald is set to return for the Steelers.

Ravens (-10/49) at Browns, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Baltimore can wrap up homefield advantage for the entire AFC postseason if it picks up a victory here against one of the two teams it has lost to this season. The Ravens have rolled off 10 straight wins since suffering their only home loss, falling 40-25 to close out September. Cleveland ranks 27th in the NFL in rush defense and will look to stop the league’s most effective ground attack, so Lamar Jackson is a good bet to significantly add to his total of 1,103 rushing yards, an all-time single-season record for a quarterback. Baltimore has scored a league-best 33.7 points per game, average 202.1 yards on the ground and has already notched the most touchdowns (58) it has managed in any given season.

The dysfunctional Browns look to finish the season as effectively as they can and are hoping to close their home schedule with a 5-3 record. WR Odell Beckham, Jr. will play through a groin injury and Jarvis Landry is dealing with a hip issue that may require offseason surgery. DT Sheldon Richardson didn’t practice earlier in the week due to a back problem but hopes to play, while center J.C. Tretter is dealing with a knee issue for an offensive line that has numerous bumps and bruises. Nick Chubb has a league-high 1,408 yards rushing, so count on the clock running throughout this contest given how often we’ll see the ball on the ground. Temperatures will be in the 40s and wind gusts of 10-to-15 miles per hour shouldn’t be overly intrusive.

Raiders at Chargers (-7.5/45.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: This game may carry no playoff implications by the time these kick off, but these vagabond franchises are still vying to finish second in the AFC West, making this one of the more attractive matchups in the late afternoon block. Oakland opens the day alive to reach the playoffs and is looking to snap a four-game losing streak. Jon Gruden’s team has managed just 12 points in the second half of games over the past five games, while L.A. is finally escaping the plight of playing in a soccer stadium where most of the fans root for the visiting team. Although the Raiders are moving to Las Vegas and played their final contest in Oakland last week, they’ll probably have more fans in Carson than the Chargers, who have gone 11-10 in their temporary home since moving to San Diego.

Rain will add to the festivities as these teams square off with a backdrop of it being the second-to-last game that Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon suit up in for the Chargers. The talented running back fumbled twice last week but ran for a season-high 108 yards the first time he faced the Raiders, helping lead to a 26-24 Week 10 win. Oakland has failed to cover in five straight weeks and won’t have talented rookie RB Josh Jacobs for Derek Carr to hand the ball to and keep a talented L.A. front seven from coming after the Raiders’ quarterback. He’s being held out with a shoulder injury. DeAndre Washington is expected to get the bulk of the work at tailback.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-9/51), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Seattle will look to remain alive for the No. 1 seed in the entire NFC by taking care of business at home over the next two weeks with division mates Arizona and San Francisco visiting. The Seahawks’ most lopsided win of the season came at Arizona in a 27-10 Week 4 victory. It appears that the team will take the cautious approach with key defensive starters Jadeveon Clowney, Ziggy Ansah, Mychal Hendricks , Quandre Diggs and Shaquill Griffin all potentially sitting. Linebacker Bobby Wagner has been dealing with an ankle injury. Considering that defeating the 49ers next week will give them the West Division regardless of what happens here. Seattle has matched a league-record with 10 wins by eight or fewer points.

The Seahawks are 4-1 in games Diggs has started since Nov. 11 and have been exceptionally effective, so his absence could be an issue against Kyler Murray if the rookie standout can get it going. Kenyan Drake is coming off a four-touchdown game against Cleveland and speedy WR Christian Kirk has been cleared to play, so this could be a much tighter game than you might expect. Rain will likely be part of the equation in the second half of this one, so it wouldn’t be a good idea for either team to start slowly since finding a rhythm in inclement weather is tough to accomplish. A first-half over call would be my recommendation.

Cowboys (-2/46) at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: The most meaningful game on the Sunday slate boils down to Carson Wentz’s ability to keep pace with a top-ranked Dallas offense that has struggled with consistency but dominated the first meeting between these teams, prevailing 37-10 on Oct. 20. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 111 yards and will be given every opportunity to loosen up the Philly defense the way he managed to in last week’s lopsided win over the Rams. Philadelphia has lost all five games he’s suited up for the Cowboys in against Philadelphia. Dallas is looking for consecutive NFC East titles for the first time since 1996.

WR Nelson Agholor is questionable to play for the Eagles, while RB Jordan Howard is also wearing that tag. Tackle Lane Johnson won’t suit up, so Philadelphia will be without one of their top offensive linemen in this one. DE Derek Barnett has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but the hope is that he’ll suit up to try and help contain a Cowboys offense that has helped produce a 7-0 record when they top 30 points but have contributed to an 0-7 mark when they’ve failed to. Weather should be mild as far as December in Philly typically goes, so both attacks are likely to gain traction. Wentz has been able to find a rhythm of late throwing to his tight ends and Greg Ward, Jr., while Dak Prescott has been sharp of late and doesn’t appear on the injury report with his shoulder issue. Cooper Rush would be called upon if Prescott gets banged up.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Jets 16, Steelers 10:
— Rudolph replaced Hodges at QB at 9:00 mark in 2nd quarter, with Jets up 10-0; Hodges went back in when Rudolph got hurt early in 4th quarter.
— Steelers scored 7-10-10 points in their last three losses.
— Pittsburgh in 2nd half: 30 plays, 61 yards, 5 first downs, zero points.

— When Ficken kicked a FG to make it 10-0, it was first FG of day league-wide, after 13 TD’s had been scored. Unusual.
— Over last 11 years. Jets are 23-12-2 ATS as a home underdog, 4-2 TY.
— Jets scored 36.5 ppg in winning their last four home games.

Saints 38, Titans 28:
— Michael Thomas set an all-time record with his 144th catch of the year.
— Saints won 10 of their last 12 games, winning last six on road
— NO is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite, 3-0 TY.

— Titans led this game 14-0 after the first quarter.
— Tennessee had three TD plays of 36+ yards; that is explosive.
— Eight of Titans’ last nine games went over the total.

Falcons 24, Jaguars 12:
— Jaguars lost six of last seven games, were outscored 82-9 in first half last four games.
— Jacksonville is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog, 3-4 TY.
— Atlanta converted 7-13 on third down, Jaguars 3-14.

— Falcons scored TD on opening drive, Jaguars fumbled kickoff, Atlanta scored again and led 14-0 after 5:32 of play. Game, set, match.
— Falcons won five of last seven games, covered six of last eight.
— Julio Jones caught 10 balls for 166 yards.

Giants 41, Redskins 35 OT:
— Jones threw a TD pass to Smith on first drive in OT to end this game.
— Barkley ran ball 22 yards for 189 yards, including a 67-yard TD.
— Giants won five of their last seven visits here; they won two road games this year, and gave up 30+ points in both of them.

— Rookie QB Haskins hurt his ankle; veteran Keenum came in and rallied Washington back from a two-TD deficit to tie game with 0:29 left.
— With the loss, Redskins move up to the #2 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
— Washington was outgained 552-381; Giants ran ball for 206 yards.

Dolphins 38, Bengals 35 OT:
— Bengals went 55-137 from 1991-2002, under four different coaches.
— Bengals were 131-122-3 with Marvin Lewis as coach, from 2003-18.
— Bengals are 1-14 in first year after they fired Lewis; why did they fire him?

— Miami led this game 35-12 with 6:30 left, but blew the lead.
— 80 different players have played for Miami this year, an NFL record.
— Dolphins split their last eight games, after an 0-7 start.

Colts 38, Panthers 6:
— Carolina lost its last seven games.
— Last four weeks, Panthers are minus-11 (1-12) in turnovers.
— Carolina had ball in red zone three times, scored total of 3 points.

— Nyheim Hines had punt returns of 84-71 yards for TD’s.
— Colts won for only second time in their last eight games.
— Indy is +6 in turnovers in its last three games.

Ravens 31, Browns 15:
— Ravens’ first four drives: 23 plays, 120 yards, no points.
— Ravens’ next five drives: 42 plays, 353 yards, four TD’s, one FG
— Baltimore won its last 11 games, covering eight of last nine.

— Browns are 7-17-1 ATS in last 25 games as a home underdog, 0-2 TY.
— Cleveland allowed 451-445-481 TY in last two games; they’re 0-5 giving up 400+ TY.
— Baltimore scored 35 TD’s on its last 72 drives.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, December 23, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings


WEEK 17

Sunday, December 29, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM New York Jets Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions
1:00 PM Los Angeles Chargers Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins New England Patriots
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens
4:25 PM Washington Redskins Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM Tennessee Titans Houston Texans
4:25 PM Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars
4:25 PM Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants
4:25 PM Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos
4:25 PM Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Rams
8:20 PM San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks


********************************


nfl december opinions and best bets: All based on 5 units

date........................... W-l-t............ %................ Units

12/22/2019.................9-15-0.........37.50%...........-37.50
12/21/2019...................1-4-1.........25.00%...........-17.00
12/16/2019...................2-0-0........100.00%..........+10.00
12/15/2019.................9-18-1..........33.33%...........-54.00
12/12/2019...................2-0-0.........100.00%.........+10.00
12/09/2019...................1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
12/08/2019................12-12-2..........50.00%..........-6.00
12/01/2019..................7-10-1..........41.18%..........-20.00

totals.........................43-60-5..........43.03%..........-77.50


best bets:

Date........................ats.............units. ............o/u...............units.............totals

12/22/2019...............2 - 6............-23.00..............6 - 5.............+2.50..............-20.50
12/21/2019...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 2.............-6.00...............-11.50
12/16/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/15/2019...............1 - 8.............-39.00.............5 - 6..............-8.00...............-47.00
12/12/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/09/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.50..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
12/08/2019...............6 - 3.............+13.50............4 - 4..............-2.00...............+11.50
12/01/2019...............6 - 6..............-3.00..............1 - 4..............-17.00..............-20.00

totals.......................17 - 24..........-41.50.............19 - 22..........-26.00...............-67.50

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 16 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Arizona +9.5 (781)- W

5) Tennessee +3 (813)- L

4) Green Bay +5.5 (829)

3) Kansas City -6.5 (845)- W

2) Houston -3 (907)- T

1) Buffalo +6.5 (909)- L

2019 record: 50-40-4

Quote of the Day:
“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.”
Abraham Lincoln

Monday’s quiz
Rams have played in four Super Bowls, under four different head coaches; who are they?

Sunday’s quiz
Houston Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson played his college football at Clemson.


Saturday’s quiz
Kevin Durant broke into the NBA with the Seattle SuperSonics, a year before they moved to Oklahoma and became the Thunder.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 16
December 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Dec. 23

Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:15 p.m. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (11-3) can clinch the NFC North with a win. However the Packers are 0-3 at Minnesota's U.S. Bank Stadium, which opened in 2016. The Vikings clinched a playoff spot when the Los Angeles Rams lost on Saturday night. The Vikings are 6-0 at home this year. They are seeking their first undefeated home slate since 2009. The Vikings will be without running back Dalvin Cook who left last week's game with a shoulder injury.

---

STARS

Passing

- Daniel Jones, Giants, was 28 for 42 for 352 yards and five touchdown passes in New York's 41-35 overtime win over Washington. He joined Matthew Stafford as the only rookie QBs since 1950 to throw for at least 500 yards and at least five TDs in a game.

- Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins, was 31 for 52 for 419 yards and four touchdown passes and an interception in Miami's 38-35 overtime win.

- Carson Wentz, Eagles, was 31 for 40 for 319 yards and a touchdown in Philadelphia's 17-9 victory over Dallas.

- Andy Dalton, Bengals, finished 33 for 56 for 396 yards and four touchdowns in Cincinnati's 38-35 overtime loss in Miami.

- Drew Brees, Saints, was 27 for 38 for 279 yards and three touchdowns in New Orleans' 38-28 win over Tennessee.

---

Rushing

- Saquon Barkley, Giants, had 22 carries for 189 yards and a touchdown and added 90 yards receiving and another touchdown in New York's 41-35 overtime win over Washington.

- Kenyan Drake, Cardinals, made 24 carries for 166 yards and two touchdowns in Arizona's 27-13 win over Seattle.

- Lamar Jackson, Ravens, had 17 carries for 103 yards in Baltimore's 31-15 win over Cleveland. QB Jackson went over 100 yards for the fifth time this season.

- Phillip Lindsay, Broncos, had 19 carries for 109 yards and a touchdown in Denver's 27-17 win over Detroit.

- Alvin Kamara, Saints, had 11 carries for 80 yards and two touchdowns in New Orleans' 38-28 win over Tennessee.

---

Receiving

- Julio Jones, Falcons, had 10 catches for 166 yards in Atlanta's 24-12 win over Jacksonville. Jones reached 12,000 yards in 125 games, the fewest in NFL history. It also was his 55th 100-yard receiving game, leaving him just two behind Marvin Harrison on the career list in that category.

- Michael Thomas, Saints, had 12 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown in New Orleans' 38-28 win over Tennessee.

- Tyler Boyd, Bengals, had nine catches for 128 yards and two touchdowns in Cincinnati's 38-35 loss to Miami.

- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, caught 15 passes for 119 yards in Carolina's 38-6 loss to Indianapolis. McCaffrey started the day needing 186 yards receiving to become the third player in league history to have 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He is 67 yards short of the feat going into the regular-season finale.

- DeVante Parker, Dolphins, had five catches for 111 yards and a touchdown in Miami's 38-35 win over Cincinnati.

- Hunter Renfrow, Raiders, had seven catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in Oakland's 24-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

---

Special Teams

- Nyheim Hines, Colts, had an 84-yard punt return and a 71-yarder for touchdowns in Indianapolis' 38-6 win over Carolina. Hines had 195 yards on three returns - an average of 65.0 yards, shattering a franchise record set by Carl Taseff (148) that stood since October 1956. It also was the highest yardage total by any player in the league since Eddie Drummond (199) in December 2007.

- Jamal Agnew, Lions, returned a punt 64 yards for a touchdown in Detroit's 27-17 loss to Denver.

- Jason Sanders, Dolphins, kicked a 37-yard field goal on the last play of overtime as Miami edged Cincinnati 38-35.

---

Defense

- Chandler Jones, Cardinals, had four sacks and two forced fumbles in Arizona's 27-13 win over Seattle. Jones now leads the NFL with 19 sacks.

- Anthony Walker, Colts, had 10 tackles, one sack and one interception in Indianapolis' 38-6 win over Carolina.

- Dre'Mont Jones, Broncos, had two sacks in Denver's 27-17 win over Detroit.

- A.J. Klein, Saints, had two sacks in New Orleans' 38-28 victory over Tennessee.

---

MILESTONES

The Saints' Michael Thomas finished with 12 catches for 136 yards in New Orleans' 38-28 win over Tennessee to break Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison's record of 143 for most receptions in a single season in NFL history. Thomas has 145 catches with one game remaining in the regular season. ... Washington's Adrian Peterson scored his 111th career rushing touchdown early in the fourth quarter of a loss to the New York Giants. That broke a tie with Walter Payton and put Peterson in sole possession of fourth on the NFL's career list.

---

ON THE CLOCK IN VEGAS

The Cincinnati Bengals have secured the No. 1 overall pick for the 2020 draft in Las Vegas after their 38-35 overtime loss to Miami. This is the fourth time the Bengals will have the No. 1 overall pick.

---

PLAYOFF TIME

The Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers have each qualified for the postseason after missing the playoffs last season. From 1990-2019 - a streak of 30 consecutive years - at least four teams have qualified for the playoffs in every season that were not in the postseason the year before.

---

BIG MEN IN THE END ZONE

Miami Dolphins rookie defensive lineman Christian Wilkins (315 pounds) caught a 1-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick in the first quarter against Cincinnati. He became the sixth player weighing at least 300 pounds with a receiving TD this season.

---

STREAKS & STATS

The Ravens earned their 11th consecutive victory and clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs for the first time with a 31-15 win over the Browns. With the loss, the Browns will miss the playoffs for the 17th straight season. ... The Jaguars have lost six of their past seven games and 20 of 27 since a 3-1 start to the 2018 season, which came on the heels of a surprising run to the AFC championship game. ... The Lions' skid reached eight games with a 27-17 loss at Denver. ... The Panthers' skid reached seven games after a 38-6 loss to Indianapolis.

---

ON THE RUN

The Baltimore Ravens rushed for 243 yards in the win at Cleveland. The Ravens are the seventh team since 1970 and first since the 1978 Kansas City Chiefs (eight) and 1978 New England Patriots (11) with eight games of at least 200 rushing yards in a season. Baltimore has 3,073 rushing yards and joined the 1978 New England Patriots (3,165 rushing yards) and 1973 Buffalo Bills (3,088) as the only teams with at least 3,000 rushing yards in a single season.

---

SIDELINED

QB Dwayne Haskins was knocked out of Washington's game with an ankle injury but wants to end his rookie season on the field. ''I want to play,'' Haskins said of the season finale next week at Dallas. ''And if I can, I will.'' He couldn't Sunday after he was sacked on the first play of the second half and carted off the field. ... Fellow rookie quarterback Kyler Murray also was forced out because of an injury. The No. 1 overall draft pick departed with a hamstring injury midway through the third quarter of Arizona's 27-13 victory over Seattle. ... The Pittsburgh Steelers have injury concerns along with a tough road to the postseason after losing three key offensive players in their 16-10 loss to the New York Jets. Quarterback Mason Rudolph (left shoulder), running back James Conner (thigh) and center Maurkice Pouncey (left knee) all left and their availability for a must-win game next week against Baltimore is uncertain. ... The Ravens are unsure of Mark Ingram's availability for that game after the running back sustained a calf injury in Cleveland after surpassing 1,000 yards rushing for the season. Coach John Harbaugh said Ingram sustained no structural damage. ... The Seahawks are down to just one healthy running back after Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise both suffered what coach Pete Carroll called ''season-ending'' first-half injuries against Arizona. Carson left with a hip injury suffered in the second quarter, and Prosise, his backup, suffered an arm injury on a big hit from Arizona's Budda Baker later in the quarter and was ruled out.

---

SPEAKING

''I just want to say that I'm the best receiver in the league right now. I'm one for one.'' Dolphins rookie defensive lineman Christian Wilkins joked after catching a 1-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick in a 38-35 win over Cincinnati. Wilkins joined William ''The Refrigerator'' Perry as the only rookie defensive linemen with a touchdown reception in the Super Bowl era.

---

''We got the victory. We're trying to play and go to a championship right now. At the end of the season, we'll look up and see all the things we accomplished. But right now we're focused on one common goal, and that's a championship.'' - Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas after setting the single-season mark for receptions in a 38-28 win over Tennessee.