Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2019, 01:13 AM

Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 15 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 6-8-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 10-5

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 123-77-1
Against the Spread 97-115-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 118-100-1
Against the Spread 92-120-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-109-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+10, ML +425) at 49ers, 29-22
Jaguars (+7, ML +250) at Raiders, 20-16
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Browns, 38-24
Texans (+3, ML +140) at Titans, 24-21

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-17) vs. Jets, 42-21
Patriots (-10.5) at Bengals, 34-13
Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Broncos, 23-3
Eagles (-6.5) at Redskins, 37-27
Buccaneeers (-6) at Lions, 38-17

Bad Beat - Part 1

-- The Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) took on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field, and the game started off harmlessly enough. The Redskins were leading 14-10 at halftime on their home field, looking to spoil the NFC East Division title and playoff dreams of their rivals. The Eagles struck for a touchdown in the third to re-take the lead 17-14. That's when the craziness started.

RB Adrian Peterson scored just seven seconds into the fourth to make it 21-17, and the teams traded touchdowns with TE Zach Ertz going to six to re-take the lead. The Redskins booted a pair of field goals to take a 27-24 lead, and that's how it looked like it might end. At the very least, the Redskins were going to hang on for the home cover. WR Greg Ward Jr. scored with :26 left to make it 31-27, and the Eagles were on their way to a win. However, the scoring wasn't over, as any Redskins side bettor already knows all too well. QB Dwayne Haskins fumbled, and with zeroes left on the clock it was LB Nigel Bradham returning the fumble for 47 yards to make it 37-27.

Bad Beat - Part 2

-- If you had the 'under' (50) in Atlanta Falcons-San Francisco 49ers, my condolences. At 5:15 to go in regulation there were just 36 total points on the board when the Falcons scored a rushing touchdown to cut the lead to 19-17. The 49ers booted a field goal at 1:48 to make it 22-17 in favor of the Niners.

With :02 left, the Falcons scored a touchdown, as QB Matt Ryan hit WR Julio Jones on a 5-yard connection to make it 23-22. Under bettors loved that they didn't even risk a two-point conversion or extra point, should the 49ers block a kick or return a fumble or interception for two points. So game over, right? Well, the 49ers tried a crazy series of lateral that went backwards, and you knew how this one was going. The 49ers chunked it, the Falcons scooped it up at the goal line and cashed in the six to push it over with zeroes on the clock. Two absolutely atrocious beats on the day. If you had the Redskins and the under in this game toge

Total Recall

-- There were five games with a total of 48.5 or greater -- Los Angeles Rams-Dallas Cowboys (48.5), Seattle Seahawks-Carolina Panthers (49), Cleveland Browns-Arizona Cardinals (49), Falcons-49ers (49.5 - see above) and the Houston Texans-Tennessee Titans (50.5). All but the Texans-Titans game ended up going over, and the AFC South battle probably would have gone over, too, if not for a scoreless first quarter. It was close.

The 'over' connected in the final Thursday game of the 2019 season between the New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens (44), with the over/under going 7-7 in the TNF game for the season. The Sunday nighter between the Buffalo Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers (37) was the lowest total on the board, and still wasn't even close to going over. We have the Monday nighter between the Indianapolis Colts-New Orleans Saints (46.5) still pending. The 'over' is just 17-28 (37.8%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead - Division Matchups

-- The Bills and Patriots battle at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight games on the road, and 5-0-1 ATS in the past six as a road underdog. The Patriots are 42-19-3 ATS in their past 63 at Gillette, and 4-0 ATS in the past four appearance on a Saturday. In this series the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the past 29 meetings, with the Bills 3-1-1 ATS in the past five trips to Foxboro.

-- The Rams and 49ers tangle, and San Francisco looks to recover after their shocking loss to Atlanta dropped them from a first-round bye in the playoffs into a wild-card position and a potential road game to kick off the playoffs. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the past six games inside the division, and they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine on the road. They were trampled in Dallas in Week 15, however. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams, but just 7-18-1 ATS in the past 26 as a favorite and 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Rams, however, and the under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in the Bay Area.

-- The Giants and Redskins tangle in D.C. in a game with nothing on the line outside of pride. The bets cash the same, however. New York is 11-3 ATS in the past 14 on the road, while going 10-2 ATS in the past 12 as a road underdog. The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in the past nine at home, although they should have covered in Week 15 (see above). Ugh. The G-Men are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings, while the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series. The under is also 5-1 in the past six in this series, and 5-2 in the past seven at FedEx Field.

-- The Ravens can clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with a win over the Browns, who stunningly beat them back on Sept. 29 in Baltimore by a 40-25 score as the 'over' hit. The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the past eight games overall, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road. The Browns are still barely alive for a playoff spot, but need to win out with help. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four at home, but just 2-8-1 ATS in the past 11 at FirstEnergy Stadium vs. Ravens.

-- The Raiders and Chargers meet in Carson. Soon this will be Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles, which is still weird. The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the road team 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meeting. The under is 5-1 in the past six in this series.

-- The Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in the past 21 inside the NFC East, while the Eagles are 4-10 ATS in the past 14 at home while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven at home vs. Cowboys. The Eagles are also 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings overall. With the road team also 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings, all trends point to Dallas.

-- The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven on the road, but just 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six overall, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the past four trips to Seattle, and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings overall in the series.

-- The Packers and Vikings meet on Monday night. The Packers are 2-6 ATS in the past eight battles on MNF, while the Vikings are 2-11 ATS in the past 13 on Monday, so something's gotta give. In this series the Packers are 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Twin Cities, while the home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 5-0 in the past five in Minnesota, while going 8-2 in the past 10 meetings overall, including a 21-16 win by the Packers in Week 2 at Lambeau.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2019, 01:15 AM

451LA RAMS -452 SAN FRANCISCO
LA RAMS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

453BUFFALO -454 NEW ENGLAND
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games in the current season.

455HOUSTON -456 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.

457DETROIT -458 DENVER
DETROIT is 24-8 ATS (15.2 Units) in road games after a loss by 14+ pts. since 1992.

459OAKLAND -460 LA CHARGERS
OAKLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

461JACKSONVILLE -462 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. bad teams (25-40%) over the last 2 seasons.

461JACKSONVILLE -462 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games in the last 2 seasons.

463NEW ORLEANS -464 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

465NY GIANTS -466 WASHINGTON
NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) over the last 2 seasons.

467PITTSBURGH -468 NY JETS
PITTSBURGH is 70-38 ATS (28.2 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.

469CINCINNATI -470 MIAMI
MIAMI is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992.

471CAROLINA -472 INDIANAPOLIS
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

473BALTIMORE -474 CLEVELAND
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

473BALTIMORE -474 CLEVELAND
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game in the last 2 seasons.

475DALLAS -476 PHILADELPHIA
DALLAS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. division opponents in the last 2 seasons.

477ARIZONA -478 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

479KANSAS CITY -480 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) in the current season.

481GREEN BAY -482 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.

*************************

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Saturday, December 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (8 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (11 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 94-125 ATS (-43.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 146-192 ATS (-65.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 74-107 ATS (-43.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS are 72-105 ATS (-43.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS are 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (10 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-206 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-206 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-151 ATS (+40.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-152 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-88 ATS (+33.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-59 ATS (+26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (9 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 7) - 12/21/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, December 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (3 - 10 - 1) at DENVER (5 - 9) - 12/22/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 147-185 ATS (-56.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DENVER is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (6 - 8) at LA CHARGERS (5 - 9) - 12/22/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 151-189 ATS (-56.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 37-66 ATS (-35.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 41-85 ATS (-52.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-47 ATS (-27.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 35-62 ATS (-33.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (5 - 9) at ATLANTA (5 - 9) - 12/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (10 - 3) at TENNESSEE (8 - 6) - 12/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-30 ATS (+22.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 11) at WASHINGTON (3 - 11) - 12/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-99 ATS (-45.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 93-125 ATS (-44.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 93-125 ATS (-44.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 93-125 ATS (-44.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 26-50 ATS (-29.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (8 - 6) at NY JETS (5 - 9) - 12/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (1 - 13) at MIAMI (3 - 11) - 12/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
MIAMI is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
MIAMI is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (5 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 7) - 12/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 121-91 ATS (+20.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 85-58 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (12 - 2) at CLEVELAND (6 - 8) - 12/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (7 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 7) - 12/22/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (4 - 9 - 1) at SEATTLE (11 - 3) - 12/22/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (10 - 4) at CHICAGO (7 - 7) - 12/22/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (11 - 3) at MINNESOTA (10 - 4) - 12/23/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 71-45 ATS (+21.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2019, 01:16 AM

NFL

Week 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games
Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road

New England Patriots
New England is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of New England's last 25 games
New England is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games at home
New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games at home
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
New England is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 15-7-1 SU in its last 23 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 9 games
LA Rams is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
LA Rams is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Rams's last 11 games on the road
LA Rams is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 7-15-1 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
LA Rams is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

Sunday, December 22

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games at home
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Atlanta

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cleveland is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
Baltimore is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Baltimore is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Indianapolis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games at home
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Indianapolis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Miami is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
Miami is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Cincinnati
Miami is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Cincinnati is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games
Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami

New York Jets
NY Jets is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games
NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
NY Jets is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
NY Jets is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of NY Jets's last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh
NY Jets is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games when playing NY Jets
Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets

Washington Redskins
Washington is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Washington is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home
Washington is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Washington is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games
NY Giants is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Giants's last 9 games on the road
NY Giants is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Washington
NY Giants is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Washington
NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington

Denver Broncos
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Denver's last 23 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 13 games at home
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
LA Chargers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Oakland
LA Chargers is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Oakland is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Seattle's last 23 games
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Seattle is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Seattle is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games
Chicago is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Kansas City's last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago

Monday, December 23

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 6-12-2 SU in its last 20 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 25 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2019, 01:18 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

Saturday’s games
Texans (9-5) @ Buccaneers (7-7)— Houston beat Titans 24-21 LW to grab one-game lead in AFC South; they host Titans next week. Texans won three of last four games, with all three wins by 6 or less points- they converted 23 of last 46 on 3rd down. Houston is 3-3 SU in true road games; they are underdog in all six games. Last four years, Texans are 0-3-1 as road favorites. Five of heir last seven games went under. Tampa Bay won its last four games, scoring 34.8 ppg; they threw ball for 913 yards last two weeks. Bucs are 2-3 SU at home TY; they’re 7-2 ATS in last nine games as a home dog. Houston won last three series games, all by 10+ points. AFC South non-divisional faves are 6-8 ATS this year, 2-1 on road; NFC South dogs are 10-10 ATS, 4-2 at home.

Bills (10-4) @ Patriots (11-3)—First place in AFC East is on line here. NE picked off four passes, blocked punt for TD in 16-10 (-7) Week 4 win at Buffalo; Patriots only TD drive was 50 yards. Bills outgained Patriots by 151 yards (375-224) but four turnovers are usually fatal. NE won 28 of last 31 series games; Bills are 6-3-1 ATS in last ten visits to Foxboro. Buffalo beat Steelers for first time in 20 years LW; they’re 6-1 SU on road TY, 4-0-1 ATS as a road underdog. Six of their last seven games stayed under. New England split its last six games after an 8-0 start; they’re +17 in turnovers their last nine games. Patriots are 23-11-3 ATS in last 27 games as a home favorite, 3-3 TY. Under is 9-5 in their games this year, 4-2 at home.

Rams (8-6) @ 49ers (11-3)— Rams went 56 yards for TD on first drive, gained 101 yards rest of day in 20-7 home loss to SF in Week 6; Rams had scored 42.7 ppg in winning previous three series games. Underdogs covered four of last five series games played here. LA split its last four games overall, giving up 45-44 points in the losses- they need win to stay alive in playoff hunt. Rams are 4-3 SU in true road games TY- in McVay era, they’re 4-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-0 TY; seven of their last nine games stayed under. 49ers are coming off last-second home loss to Atlanta; they split their last six games after an 8-0 start. Niners are 5-2 SU at home TY, 3-4 ATS as a home favorite. Six of their last eight games went over the total.

*****************************

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Saturday, December 21

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 455-456
December 21, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
137.963
Tampa Bay
132.366
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3); Under

Buffalo @ New England

Game 453-454
December 21, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
136.754
New England
138.257
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+6 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ San Francisco

Game 451-452
December 21, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
134.177
San Francisco
136.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 2 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 6 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+6 1/2); Over

Sunday, December 22

Jacksonville @ Atlanta

Game 461-462
December 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
120.208
Atlanta
137.455
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 17
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 7
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-7); Under

Cincinnati @ Miami

Game 469-470
December 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
123.290
Miami
120.279
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
Pick
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
Under

New Orleans @ Tennessee

Game 463-464
December 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
136.366
Tennessee
138.551
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+3); Over

Carolina @ Indianapolis

Game 471-472
December 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
122.947
Indianapolis
127.682
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 7
46
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+7); Over

Pittsburgh @ NY Jets

Game 467-468
December 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
131.885
NY Jets
125.493
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6 1/2
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3); Under

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 465-466
December 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
124.891
Washington
122.925
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 2 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+2 1/2); Over

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Game 473-474
December 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
141.859
Cleveland
134.343
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 7 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 10
48
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10); Over

Oakland @ LA Chargers

Game 459-460
December 22, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
119.554
LA Chargers
128.202
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 8 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 6
46
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-6); Under

Detroit @ Denver

Game 457-458
December 22, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
121.968
Denver
131.636
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 9 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 6 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-6 1/2); Under

Dallas @ Philadelphia

Game 475-476
December 22, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.171
Philadelphia
132.730
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+2 1/2); Under

Arizona @ Seattle

Game 477-478
December 22, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
127.958
Seattle
133.065
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 10
51
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+10); Under

Kansas City @ Chicago

Game 479-480
December 22, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
142.608
Chicago
130.056
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 12 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5
45
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-5); Over

Monday, December 23

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Game 481-482
December 23, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
132.967
Minnesota
140.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2019, 01:20 AM

NFL Week 16 opening odds and early action: Cowboys a road favorite for key clash vs Eagles
Patrick Everson

Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas are tied atop the NFC East with Philadelphia, heading into a critical Week 16 contest. The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites against the division-rival Eagles.

The NFL playoff race shifts into high gear with key divisional battles in Week 16. We check in on opening odds and early action for four Week 16 games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Someone’s gotta win the NFC East, and this is the game that will likely decide who that someone is. Dallas put a three-game SU slide in the rearview mirror while climbing back to .500 in Week 15. The Cowboys (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) battered the Los Angeles Rams 44-21 as 1-point home underdogs.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia had to scrap and scrounge at three-win Washington, but also found its way back to .500. The Eagles (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) got a touchdown with 26 seconds remaining to take a 31-27 lead, then got a scoop-and-score on the final play of the game. That play killed ‘Skins bettors as Philly won 37-27 giving 10 points. It was the only moment all game that the Eagles were covering.

“Everyone will be on Dallas after its performance in the win over the Rams,” Murray said. “The Eagles escaped two weeks in a row against the awful Giants and Redskins. They will need to really up their game to beat Dallas here.”

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7)

In the offseason, not many would have pegged Buffalo as having a chance to tie for the AFC East lead in Week 16, but that’s most certainly the case. The Bills (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) bested Pittsburgh 17-10 as 1-point road underdogs in the Sunday nighter and now have the best spread-covering mark in the league.

Defending Super Bowl champ New England halted a two-game SU and three-game ATS skid. The Patriots (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) played a lackluster first half at Cincinnati, taking a 13-10 lead just before the break, but went on to a 34-13 victory laying 10.5 points.

“Both teams are now in the playoffs but have playoff positioning to fight for,” Murray said of motiviations for this Saturday showdown. “The Patriots’ offense couldn’t do anything in their first meeting, and it doesn’t seem like much has changed for them on that side of the ball. We will be flooded with teasers and parlays of Patriots to 49ers.”

Per SuperBook policy, this game came off the board before the Bills-Steelers kickoff and will repost Monday morning.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

San Francisco learned how quickly fates can change at this stage of the year, dropping from the NFC’s No. 1 seed to No. 5 on Sunday. The 49ers (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS), coming off a great win at New Orleans, suffered a stunning home loss to Atlanta, 29-22 as healthy 10.5-point favorites.

In a crazy finish, the Niners allowed a TD with two seconds left to fall behind 23-22, then gave up a scoop-and-score while lateraling around on the ensuing kickoff to account for the final score. Which, oh by the way, made Over bettors delirious and Under bettors sick, with a total of 50.

Defending NFC champ Los Angeles did itself more harm than San Fran in Week 15, further wrenching its playoff hopes. The Rams went to Dallas as 1-point favorites and got boatraced 44-21, halting a 3-1 SU and ATS upswing. Sean McVay’s squad is still No. 7 in the NFC, but is two games out in the win column to current wild cards Minnesota and San Francisco.

“San Francisco is really banged up right now and just fell out of first place with a loss to the Falcons,” Murray said. “They need this game to stay in the hunt for a first-round bye. The book will want the Rams outright.”

This is another Saturday matchup, in prime time with an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

Green Bay will look to remain solo first in the NFC North in the final Monday night game of the season. In Week 15, the Packers (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) beat Chicago 21-13 giving 4 points at frigid Lambeau Field, where the current No. 2 seed hopes to spend some time in January.

However, Minnesota can tie its division rival with a victory in this prime-time contest. The Vikings (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) went off as 1-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers and coasted to a 39-10 victory Sunday.

“The Packers really struggled on offense in their win over the Bears. They’ll need to be much better to beat Minnesota here,” Murray said. “The winner will likely take the division, and the loser will have to go on the road for three rounds in the postseason to get to the Super Bowl.”

***********************************

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 16 odds: Time to tackle the total for Raiders at Chargers
Jason Logan

This total of 47 points is the lowest Over/Under set for a game between Oakland at L.A./San Diego since 2015 and in their eight meetings during that stretch, these divisional foes have produced a 2-6 Over/Under mark.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 16 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

All the marbles in the NFC East are on the line when the Cowboys come to Philly to face the Eagles in Week 16. After Dallas destroyed the L.A. Rams at home Sunday and Philadelphia fumbled its way to a win over Washington, the public perceptions for these two rivals are heading in opposite directions.

The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites on the road and early money is jumping on the visitor, with some books making a brief move to -3 and other juggling the juice on Eagles +2.5 trying to stir up action on the home side.

If you like Dallas to build on that Week 15 win and take the NFC East title, get it under the key number of a field goal now. Books are expecting to need Philadelphia come kickoff Sunday and this spread could not only climb to -3 but maybe even -3.5 if the public pounds America’s Team.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: LOS ANGELES RAMS (+6.5) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Both NFC West rivals are coming off bad losses in Week 15, but the Rams’ 44-21 flogging in Dallas looks a little worse than the Niners dropping the ball versus Atlanta. And that’s why this 6.5-point spread will tick toward the home side for Saturday night’s game.

With the 49ers fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and looking to avoid a Wild Card spot, bettors will bank on a bounce back with the team staying in the Bay Area. San Francisco was banged up heading into that matchup with the Falcons and should it return some key bodies, this spread could climb to a touchdown or higher.

Some books opened 49ers -6 and jumped to -6.5, and now we’re seeing that line taxed a little more on the home side as books attempt to cook up action on the Rams. If you like Los Angeles to put in a good fight and try to play spoiler to San Francisco’s postseason plans, then hold off and wait to see how many points this spread will climb.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47 OAKLAND RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

It was a bad week for California-based NFL teams. Both the Raiders and Chargers lost – as did the Rams and Niners – but at least one will get a “W” in Week 15 (unless we get a tie. Yuck). However, we’re more concerned with the total for this AFC West rivalry.

Oakland botched its farewell game in the Bay Area by scoring only 16 points in a loss to Jacksonville and has averaged just 13.2 points over its last five games, posting a 1-4 Over/Under count in that span. Los Angeles mustered a mere 10 points in a blowout loss to Minnesota, a week removed from hanging 45 points on the Jaguars. Take that high-scoring aberration out of the mix and the Bolts have scored 20 or less in three of their last four.

This total of 47 points is the lowest Over/Under set for a game between Oakland at L.A./San Diego since 2015 and in their eight meetings during that stretch, these divisional foes have produced a 2-6 Over/Under mark. Bookies are already discounting the vig on the Over 47, so a move downward is coming. Take the Under 47 now while you can.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 50.5 ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks are vying for the top seed in the NFC after a win at Carolina and a 49ers loss to Atlanta in Week 15. Seattle is far from those dominant defensive clubs that stormed the NFL playoffs a few years back, scoring 26.3 points for but allowing 27.3 points against over its last three contests.

The Cardinals come in with the hot hand, putting 38 points on Cleveland at home in Week 15. Arizona has scored 25 or more points in four of its last six games and is a much different team than the one that lost 27-10 to Seattle at home back in Week 4.

The current 50.5-point total is the third-highest Over/Under number on the Week 16 board, after opening as low as 49.5. It has climbed as high as 51 at some sportsbooks and if you think that total is too tall, wait it out and see how high you can get the number before getting down on the Under.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2019, 01:23 AM

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 16 odds: Home for the holidays could be bad for Broncos
Jason Logan

Denver doesn’t have a great history when laying the lumber in Mile High, going just 2-7-2 ATS in those spots since 2017, and is a 6.5-point favorite hosting Detroit in a tough schedule spot in Week 16.

Checking off that long Christmas list isn’t the only shopping you should do this week. If you’re betting the NFL odds for Week 16, be on the lookout for good deals going against teams walking into tough situational spots this weekend.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gift wraps his favorite spot bets for Week 16, including his top lookahead, letdown and schedule spots.

LETDOWN SPOT: NEW YORK GIANTS AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-2.5, 42)

After an uncomfortable (but necessary) move to replace veteran QB and two-time Super Bowl champ Eli Manning with rookie passer Daniel Jones back in Week 3, the Giants were able to give Eli a proper sendoff last Sunday.

With Jones out with an injury, Manning was thrust back under center and picked up a win over Miami in what could be his final game inside MetLife Stadium. It was a fitting ending to his polarizing career, but the catch is that it isn’t over yet. New York still has two more games to play, starting in Washington this week (then closing versus Philadelphia at home in Week 17).

Jones could return for Sunday but there’s a good chance its Manning again, leaving the rookie to take the reigns the following week in the season finale. It’s strange to find a team ripe for a letdown off a victory against the Dolphins, but with the feel-good finish to last Sunday’s festivities, the G-Men could come into D.C. a little flat. The Redskins are playing their best football of the season with a 3-1 ATS mark over their last four games, including a bad beat for Washington bettors in the dying seconds of Sunday's loss to Philadelphia.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-9.5, 50.5)

When playoff position is changing with every win and loss, it’s tough to single out a proper lookahead spot in Week 16. The Seahawks are our default selection this week, giving almost 10 points to the visiting Cardinals with a massive matchup against the 49ers set for Week 17.

Seattle took over the top seed in the NFC with its win over Carolina and San Francisco’s folly against Atlanta in Week 15. The Seahawks stuck to their trend of making bettors sweat it out a little more than they’d like, beating the Panthers 30-24 as 6-point home chalk (despite holding a 30-10 lead in the fourth quarter). On the season, all but one of Seattle’s 11 victories have come by one score (eight points or less) and four of those have been by a field goal or fewer.

The only comfortable win for Seahawks bettors was a 27-10 victory over Arizona back in Week 4. But with Seattle looking ahead to the 49ers and perhaps pulling some starters if they get up, this big spread opens the backdoor for Cardinals bettors (Seahawks getting outscored 11.3 to 6.7 in the fourth quarter over their last three games). The underdog is also 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these NFC West rivals.

SCHEDULE SPOT: DETROIT LIONS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-6.5, 38)

Everyone wants to be home for Christmas. Hell, there’s even a classic Xmas song about it. But when it comes to the Broncos return to the Mile High City to play Detroit in Week 16, a trip home could bring with it extra baggage. And, as dear Vegas wiseguy once told me, not all home games are a good thing.

Denver is gassed after being on the road for four of its last five games, including back-to-back away tilts at Houston and Kansas City heading into Week 16. All that time spent in practice, on planes and in hotels makes prepping for the holidays extra tough. With family coming to town, players are arranging accommodations and tickets, and off-field distractions can compound when you have a losing team already frustrated with the way things are operating. Pile on the bad press and media blitz around the Broncos’ future, and Denver could have a Clark Griswold-sized Xmas melt down on Sunday.

The Broncos have been a solid bet at home, going 4-2 ATS as hosts this season, but are rare home favorites to the Lions this Sunday, giving 6.5 points. Denver doesn’t have a great history when laying the lumber in Mile High, going just 2-7-2 ATS in those spots since 2017.

******************************

NFL Betting Stats heading into Wk 16:

Road Teams: 124-94-6 ATS
Home Teams: 94-124-6 ATS

Favorites: 100-118-6 ATS
Underdogs: 118-100-6 ATS
Home Faves: 56-80-5 ATS
Home Dogs: 38-44-1 ATS

Road Faves: 44-38-1 ATS
Road Dogs: 80-56-5 ATS

O/U: 110-114

******************************

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

1. Bills 9-4-1 ATS
t2. Steelers 9-5 ATS
t2. Chiefs 9-5 ATS
t2. Saints 9-5 ATS
t2. Rams 9-5 ATS
t2. Packers5-1 ATS
t7. Niners 8-5-1 ATS

NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Bears 4-10 ATS
31. Chargers 4-8-2 ATS
t30. Jets 5-9 ATS
t30. Bengals 5-9 ATS
t30. Eagles 5-9 ATS
t30. Lions 5-9 ATS
t26. Bucs 5-8-1 ATS
t26. Browns 5-8-1 ATS

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2019, 02:56 AM

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Interesting Week 16 NFL games:

— Rams @ 49ers (-6.5)

— Lions @ Broncos (-6.5)

— Raiders @ Chargers (-6)

— Giants @ Redskins (-2.5)

— Cardinals @ Seahawks (-9.5)

— Chiefs (-5) @ Bears

Quote of the Day:
“Two guys weren’t really contributing at all and that one guy was just throwing the ball up all the time. I know Patrick (Ewing) can’t say that but I can. I watched him play 3 games. He lost 2 games by himself.”
Jim Boeheim, talking about Georgetown’s departed PG, James Akinjo

Wednesday’s quiz
When was the last time there was a Final Four without a team seeded 5th or lower in a region?

Tuesday’s quiz
Sam Elliott played the football coach at Wisconsin in the movie Draft Day.

Monday’s quiz
Ben Simmons played his one year of college basketball at LSU.

************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……

13) One thing about the new baseball rule that will get talked about a lot in the spring; relievers will have to face 3+ batters in an appearance, unless they finish an inning, then they can be replaced between innings, even if they faced only one or two hitters.

Idea of the rule is to reduce pitching changes within a half-inning, to keep the pace of the game flowing better. There was a game last year where a team had five batters bat in the 8th inning, and they faced five different pitchers. Not good.

12) Appearances that would not have been allowed had the new rule been in effect during the las three seasons:
2019: 649— Oliver Perez had 22 of them, out of his 65 appearances.
2018: 712
2017: 720

11) In month of November, $316.5M was bet on sports in Pennsylvania, $562.7M was wagered in New Jersey; thats $879.2M, just in those two states.

10) North Carolina’s star freshman Cole Anthony is out 4-6 weeks after getting his knee scoped. Tar Heels are +69 this year when Anthony is in the game, minus-47 when he is on the bench.

9) Seth Greenberg and Sean Farnham were talking on ESPN2 last nite about leagues adding more teams to improve their profile in basketball- they were talking about Gonzaga. My thing is this: No league should have more than 12 teams in it; anything more becomes cumbersome.

ACC has 15 basketball teams: too many. Big 14/Atlantic 14? Same thing.

8) Detroit Lions announced that their coach/GM will both come back next year, which during a 3-10-1 season, is a little surprising. If I was a Lions’ fan, I’d have a stronger opinion on this, but thats there business. Lions haven’t won a playoff game since 1991.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Cincinnati Reds signed P Wade Miley
— Houston Astros gave P Joe Smith $8M for two years.

6) More than 25% of all grievances filed league-wide by NFL players for violations of the league’s CBA were filed against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which could be bad news for Jaguars’ VP Tom Coughlin. Dante Fowler is going to get about $700,000 back that the Jaguars fined him.

5) Dallas Mavericks upset the Bucks 120-116 in Milwaukee Monday, snapping the Bucks’ 18-game win streak, even with Dallas star Doncic (ankle) sitting out.

4) College football stuff:
— Former Rutgers coach Chris Ash in the new DC at Texas.
— Fresno State named Indiana OC Kalen DeBoer its new football coach.

3) Median sale price for a single-family house in San Francisco:
2010: $751,000
2019: $1.65M

2) RIP to former Iowa football coach Hayden Fry, who passed away Tuesday at age 90. Fry was the Iowa coach back when I was in college; he revitalized their program, going 96-61-5 in Big 10 games back when Michigan/Ohio State had been totally dominating the league.

1) Something to think about while you’re shoveling snow this week: Only 100 days until Opening Day of baseball season.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-19-2019, 03:15 AM

Tech Trends - Week 16
Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 21

HOUSTON at TAMPA BAY (NFL, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 9-3-1 vs. spread away since early 2018. Bucs have won last 4 SU but 0-5 vs. spread at Tampa TY. Bucs also on 12-3 “over” run since late 2018.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (NFL, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Pats are 29-3 SU last 32 in series though Bills have won and covered 3 of last 5 at Gillette Stadium. Bills on 10-4-1 spread uptick since late LY, and 7-1-2 last ten as dog. Buff also “under” 10-3 TY. Note Belichick has had at least one 3-game winless spread streak in 6 of last 7 seasons (including 2019). Belichick “under” 17-5 last 22 reg season.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Bills, based on “totals” and recent trends.

L.A. RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Rams on 11-5 spread run in reg season since late 2018. Niners, however, 8-5-1 vs. spread TY, and won handily at Coliseum Oct. 13. Rams also “under” 9-5 TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Sunday, Dec. 22

JACKSONVILLE at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags no wins or covers give of last six TY. Jax “over” Falcs on 5-2 spread uptick.
Tech Edge: Falcons, based on recent trends.

NEW ORLEANS at TENNESSEE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have won and covered last five on road TY, now 12-3 vs. spread as visitor since LY. Titans 6-2 SU and vs. line since Tannehill took over at QB, also “over” 7-1 run.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men have covered 5 of last 6 meetings including Sept. 29 win at MetLife. NY 10-3 as road dog since LY (4-2 TY). Skins no covers last 3 as chalk dating to 2018. “Unders” 5-1 last six meetings.
Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

PITTSBURGH at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel on 8-3-1 run spread run TY, 3-1-1 last five away. Tomlin also “under” 11-3 TY and 16-5 last 21 since late LY. Jets 3-2 vs. spread last five at MetLife.
Tech Edge: Steelers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CINCINNATI at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy 8-2 vs. line last 10 as true visitor, “under” 11-6-2 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: "Under” and Bengals, based on series and “totals” trends.

CAROLINA at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers fading, 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 vs. line last six TY, no covers last four on road, also on 11-4 “over” run. Though Colts just 1-6 SU last 7 after Saints loss. Indy also “over” 10-6 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to "over," based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns have covered last three in series, including 40-25 win at M&T Bank on Sept. 29. Cleveland also has won 4 in a row SU at home (3-0-1 vs. line those games). But Ravens have won 10 in a row SU since and covered 7 of last 8 TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on recent trends.

DETROIT at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Lions on 1-8 spread skid, Denver 7-3 last 10 vs. line & 17-6 "under" run.
Tech Edge: Broncos and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Last game in Carson! Chargers 4-10 vs. spread TY, 1-7 vs. spread last 8 in Carson. Bolts had won and covered 4 in a row in series before loss at Coliseum on Nov. 7. Raiders however no covers last five TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders, based on team trends.

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Eagles 11-21-1 vs. spread in reg season since late 2017, have also lost and failed to cover last four vs. Cowboys. Dallas struggling a bit but 5-6 last ten vs. line TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cards had covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series prior to loss on Sept. 29. Seattle on 15-7 “over” run.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at CHICAGO (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 5-2 vs. spread away TY, Bears only 2-8 vs. line last 10 TY. Chicago on 16-5 “under” run since late 2018, Chiefs “under” last 4 TY.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Chiefs, based on “totals” and team trends.

Monday, Dec. 23

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Series “under” 4-1 last five. Vikes 7-3 vs. spread last ten at US Bank, and have won and covered last 3 as host vs. Pack.
Tech Edge: Vikings and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-19-2019, 03:17 AM

by: Josh Inglis

SHERMINATOR

The San Francisco 49ers will have PFF’s No. 1 cornerback Richard Sherman back for their Week 16 matchup versus the L.A. Rams on Saturday night. If the Niners can win out, they can clinch the No.1 seed in the NFC and getting Sherman back will only boost the No. 2 DVOA defense, which faces a Rams offense that is averaging the second-most passing yards a game since Week 13.

No team has held opponents to a lower passing-yard total at home than the Niners. Through seven home games, teams are only managing 134 yards passing per game versus San Francisco, no quarterback has topped 232 yards, and only two QBs have eclipsed 200 yards.

Jared Goff has passed for over 1,000 yards in the last three weeks, but those were against Bottom-15 DVOA defenses. Against Top-10 defenses, Goff has averaged 176 yards, including a 78-yard performance against the 49ers in Week 6.

We like San Francisco with a big bounce-back game this week and it starts with its defense. We’re taking the Under on Goff’s passing total on any number above 225 yards.

SATURDAY MATINEE

Already down WR Mike Evans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will most likely be without standout receiver Chris Godwin for Saturday’s 1 p.m. ET game. Coach Bruce Arians told reporters on Tuesday that he will look to get his running backs involved in the passing game to compensate for the loss.

Ronald Jones could be the biggest beneficiary of this situation. RJ2 leads the Bucs’ backfield in targets since Week 10, turning eight targets into five grabs for 50 yards the last two weeks. Not great output, but considering the Texans are allowing the most receiving yards to opposing RBs on the year, there’s optimism that Jones could yield 25-plus yards Saturday.

We’re waiting for Jones’ prop market to open and will look to grab the Over on his receiving total on any number below 35 yards.

BEATING THE BILLS EARLY

Sticking with Saturday, we have our eye on a first-quarter play that will feature two elite defenses and one offense that’s struggling to put up points early in December.

The Buffalo Bills haven’t scored a first-quarter point in three games and are averaging just 1.9 points in the opening 15 minutes across seven road games this year. In their last three games, they are 0-2-1 ATS versus the first-quarter spread and will have to fend off a New England Patriots team that leads the league in first-quarter points scored at home. The Pats offensive struggles apparently don’t apply to the first quarter as the defending Super Bowl champs are putting up a robust 9.3 points in the opening frame at Gillette Stadium this year.

We expect this game to be a close battle, but just love the value of the Pats’ first-quarter spread of -0.5 for +115 with the Bills’ ineffective early offense.

JETS AIN'T NO JOKE

Talk to any Pittsburgh Steelers fan and you won’t find many keen on this offense. Current QB Devlin Hodges will get another crack at starting after a four-interception game last week and no QB is attempting fewer passes a game than Hodges (22.3).

Pittsburgh loves to run the ball but could be forced to find another route of action as the Jets are the league’s No. 2 DVOA rush defense and are holding opposing teams to just 89 yards a game on the ground. There’s a good chance that Hodges is forced to watch Week 17 from the sidelines if he can’t show something in New York.

The Jets were missing some key pieces to their defense last week including Jamal Adams, two starting cornerbacks and DL Quinnen Williams. It’s too early in the week to tell if this group sits again, but even if they could get Adams back, it would be a huge boost for the defense.

We’re riding the Steelers’ team total Under again and taking the Under 20.5 early in the week before it slips below 20.

YOU’RE WILKINS

If you’ve forgotten - and we don’t blame you - the Carolina Panthers are still giving up rushing touchdowns at a league-high rate. No team is allowing more rushing TDs at home, on the road and over the last three weeks than the Panthers. The former 5-3 team has rattled off six straights losses, got its coach fired and is on its third QB heading into a road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16.

The Colts are a Top-10 team in rushing yards per game but are averaging just 67 yards over their last three contests thanks to facing three Top-10 DVOA rush defenses in New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Carolina should help right the ship for the Colts’ rushing woes and we might have to double down because Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins could see an even split if Indy plays with the lead as a 6.5-point home favorite.

We will play the anytime Marlon Mack touchdown but what will make our day is if Wilkins, who saw one less snap than Mack last week and the only two red-zone carries, hits pay dirt as well for plus-money.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-19-2019, 03:20 AM

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 11-3 O/U
2. Panthers 10-4 O/U
t3. Cowboys 9-5 O/U
t3. Lions 9-5 O/U
t5. Cardinals, Ravens, Vikings, Titans, Seahawks, Colts & Giants 8-6 O/U

NFL's Top Under Teams:

t1. Bills 11-3 U/O
t1. Steelers 11-3
t3. Rams 9-5 U/O
t3. Patriots 9-5
t3. Bengals 9-5
t3. Bears100 9-5
t7. Packers, Broncos, Texans, Redskins, Falcons & Chargers tied at 8-6 U/O

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2019, 02:43 AM

Thursday’s 6-pack

Teams getting highest %age of their points on 3’s:

6) Elon 42.2%

5) Binghamton 42.4%

4) Wofford 43.9%

3) Virginia Tech 44.9%

2) VMI 45.8%

1) North Florida 46.2%

Quote of the Day:
“Mike Tyson said it best: Every time he went in the ring, he was scared to death. Now once competition starts, your confidence comes from your preparation. But you can be confident and still have some fear in you, man. Like, I’m scared to death of Eastern Illinois. Fear is one of your biggest motivators, man.”
Texas Tech basketball coach Chris Beard

Friday’s quiz
CBS/FS1 basketball analyst Bill Raftery was once the basketball coach at which Big East school?

Thursday’s quiz
Other than Dak Prescott, Kellen Moore was the last QB to start for the Dallas Cowboys; he is the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator now.

Wednesday’s quiz
2012 was the last time there was a Final Four without a team seeded 5th or lower in a region.

**************************

Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) Memphis Tigers’ freshman C James Wiseman declared for the NBA Draft, so his college career is over, almost before it started. Wiseman played three games for Memphis.

12) NBA needs to re-instate the rule in where kids can go right from high school to the NBA, then kids who want to play college ball will do that, and other kids can gamble on their future by going straight to the pros.

12) Auburn 79, NC State 73— Wolfpack PG Johnson has the ball A LOT, but if you’re going to dominate the ball, you can’t go 4-10 on foul line in a close, physical game. This was an NCAA tournament-style game, and Auburn remains unbeaten, avenging LY’s loss to NC State.

11) ESPN had the NC State-Auburn game Thursday; Jimmy Dykes was the analyst, and in the first half, Auburn football coach Gus Malzahn was a guest on the broadcast.

Turns out that 25 years ago, Dykes was the AD at Shiloh Christian School in Arkansas and he had to hire a football coach. He hired Malzahn, and the two have been friends since. Imagine going from being a high school coach to making seven figures coaching in the SEC?

10) Rockets 122, Clippers 117— LA had 69 points at halftime, leading by 15, but Rockets stormed back and outscored Clippers 36-18 in 3rd quarter. Harden had 28 points, 10 assists; Capela was +27 in 39:00, meaning Rockets were outscored by 22 points in 9:00 he sat out.

9) Seton Hall 52, Maryland 48— Red flag for Maryland, since Pirates were playing without their two best players. Terps shot 29% inside arc, 5-21 on arc. Not good.

8) Major league pitcher Wade Miley got pounded at the end of last season, after being pretty good prior to September; one day in late September he gets a text from a former teammate, which says: “Check your glove”

Turns out Miley was tipping his pitches, and the former teammate could see it. Miley signed a two-year deal with the Reds this winter; we’ll see if that was the only problem he had.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Brewers gave 2B Eric Sogard a 1-year, $4.5M deal, 1B Justin Smoak to a 1-year, $5M deal.
— Angels signed P Julio Teheran to a 1-year, $9M deal.

6) Stanford QB K.J. Costello has entered the NCAA transfer portal; he started 25 games for the Cardinal the last three years- he’ll be a graduate transfer.

5) Owners of pro teams shouldn’t be eligible for the Hall of Fame in that sport; those honors should be reserved for players, coaches, front office people. George Halas would be one of the exceptions, since he also played/coached.

4) Dallas Mavericks’ owner Mark Cuban is trying to learn Slovenian, Luka Doncic’s native language. Thats when you know you’re a big star, when your boss learns a new language because he wants you to stick around.

3) The last time a team won consecutive basketball games at Duke/North Carolina was way back in 1975, when a Maryland team led by John Lucas/Brad Davis pulled it off.

2) Citadel 102, Longwood 99, 3OT— There were 84 3’s taken in this game, 78 2’s; Citadel was down 5 in second OT. Longwood took 16 FT’s in a 55:00 game; Kaelon Harris of Citadel was 13-14 by himself, in 48:00.

1) Oklahoma City Thunder players were among people evacuated from an Oklahoma City **** Thursday when an isolated shooting took place at the Penn Square ****- a man was shot at the Foot Locker at the shopping complex.

The shooting victim was in critical but stable condition after being shot in the chest.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2019, 02:45 AM

by: Josh Inglis

ARE WE THERE YET?

The end of the year can’t come fast enough for the Oakland Raiders. One week after getting booed off the field, the Raiders will be without their best offensive skilled player in rookie running back Josh Jacobs and their best offensive linemen in Trent Brown. Can the Silver and Black get up for a divisional matchup with the L.A Chargers?

*shakes Magic 8-ball*

“Outlook not so good”

After losing last week to a Jacksonville team that everyone thought had quit, the irony is that Oakland could be the team to roll over with two weeks to go. Facing a Chargers team that has rediscovered its offensive mojo and is putting up over 400 yards of offense per game over the last three weeks could spell trouble for the Raiders’ 31st DVOA defense.

With the possibility of Oakland waning on both sides of the ball and having been beaten by two touchdowns or more in six of its eight losses, we are looking at the alternative spread and laying our pre-Christmas bucks on the Chargers at -13.5 for a cool +200.

PERMANENT PARKER

Receiver Devante Parker has been a consistent threat for the Miami Dolphins passing game but has really turned it on since Week 11. Over that five-game stretch, the WR is averaging eight targets which he has parlayed into a 5.2/80.6/0.8 slash line. This week Parker and the Dolphins will take on a Cincinnati defense that sits 27th in pass defense.

Parker has 12 receptions of 20-plus yards on the year which is the second-most in the league for WRs. The fifth-year wideout also will be motivated to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. Parker sits 46 yards short of the milestone and should be able to top that mark on Sunday.

We like the Over on Parkers’ 78.5 receiving yards and think the total of 4.5 receptions is just as obtainable.

THE JACKSONVILLE JAGS BEENS

It’s hard to do, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are averaging less than three points over their last four games in the first half. That’s what happens when you score just three field goals in 90 minutes of first-half football. You would have to go back to November 18 to find the last time the Jaguars scored a first-half touchdown.

The Atlanta Falcons are second-last in the league in first-half points scored at home with 7.4 ppg. Even with that terribly low average, they could still cover the four points they are favored by in the 1H against the Jags.

Four games is a small sample size, but in the football world, a month of games is pretty indicative of how a team is playing and scoring just nine points in the first halves of those four games deserves an instant fade. Take the Falcons 1H -4.

TRIPLE TD THREAT

With a three-pack of Saturday games, there isn’t a better time to throw down a parlay to get you through the day. With fantasy football championship week in mind, here are our three best player scoring props for each of Saturday’s games.

HOU@TB: The Buccaneers are giving up over two passing TDs at home this year and will face a Houston passing attack that should have both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller in a win-and-in game for the Texans. Fuller hasn’t caught a TD since he hauled in three in Week 5 but Hopkins has scored five times in his last eight games and should be force-fed on Sunday with Tampa's No. 1 rush defense. Take Hopkins anytime TD.

BUF@NE: The Bills haven’t allowed a rushing TD since October 28 — a stretch of seven games, so we are avoiding a Sony Michel call here. We are also skeptical to add a receiving TD because the Pats sit first in the league in pass defense and the Bills sit third and both need better play from their quarterbacks.

This leaves us with a Josh Allen rushing TD which could hold a bit of value considering he ran for a TD against the Pats in Week 4 and has rushed for six TDs over his last seven games. Take the Josh Allen rushing TD.

LAR@SF: This is the easiest one of the bunch. We are backing the RB who has rushed for a TD in four straight games and has the leading share in the league’s second-highest scoring offense. Take Raheem Mostert to continue his TD scoring ways.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2019, 02:46 AM

Saturday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Texans (-3, 49 ½) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST

Unfortunately, it’s too little, too late for Tampa Bay (7-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS), who is playing its best football towards the end of the season. The Buccaneers started 2-6, but have caught fire by winning five of their last six games, while riding a four-game hot streak to reach .500 for the first time since Week 4. The key behind this resurgence has been quarterback Jameis Winston, who is the current leader in passing yards in the NFL.

Winston is the first player in NFL history to throw for over 450 yards in consecutive games, as tossed 456 yards in a 38-35 home triumph over the Colts in Week 14, followed by a 458-yard effort in last Sunday’s 38-17 rout of the Lions. Winston passed Dallas’ Dak Prescott for the lead in the passing yardage category as the former top pick has eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark 10 times this season, although the Bucs are 5-5 in those games.

The Texans (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) are one step closer to back-to-back division titles as Houston held off Tennessee last Sunday in Nashville, 24-21. Houston rebounded from an ugly home loss to Denver the previous week as the Texans built a 14-0 halftime lead behind a pair of touchdown passes from Deshaun Watson to Kenny Stills. Watson was intercepted twice for the second straight game, but Houston improved to 6-2 ATS this season in the underdog role.

A victory by Houston on Saturday will clinch the AFC South championship, or the Texans can celebrate on Sunday if the Titans lose at home to the Saints. The Texans face the Titans once again at NRG Stadium in Week 17 in a potential winner-take-all contest, but it will only matter if Houston loses and Tennessee wins in Week 16.

Houston has not been a reliable favorite this season by posting a 1-5 ATS mark, with the lone cover in this situation coming in a 53-32 blowout of Atlanta in Week 5 as four-point chalk. However, the Texans have gone 4-2 SU in those games with three of those victories coming by three points or less.

Tampa Bay started the season with road underdog victories against Carolina and Los Angeles, but the Bucs slumped in the ‘dog role by failing to cover in five straight opportunities when receiving points. The Bucs ended that skid with a Week 12 blowout of the Falcons, as Tampa Bay is in the home underdog role for only the second time this season.

From a totals perspective, Tampa Bay is riding an incredible 11-1 OVER run, while topping the 30-point mark seven times in this stretch. The Texans have seen the UNDER cash in the last three road contests, while not eclipsing the 28-point mark in the past eight games overall.

Bills at Patriots (-6 ½, 36 ½) – 4:30 PM EST

The AFC East has been dominated by New England (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) over the last 16 seasons as the Patriots have captured 15 division titles. However, Bill Belichick’s team still hasn’t wrapped up the division yet heading into Week 16, as New England needs to fight off a feisty Buffalo squad, that clinched a playoff berth last week.

With a victory on Saturday, New England can celebrate its 11th consecutive AFC East title. The Patriots bounced back from a home loss to the Chiefs in Week 14 to rout the hapless Bengals, 34-13 last Sunday as 10 ½-point road favorites. Cincinnati actually led, 10-7 after the first quarter before New England scored 20 unanswered points to take control. Tom Brady threw for less than 200 yards for the third time in four games as the future Hall of Famer racked up a season-low 128 yards, although he connected on a pair of touchdown passes.

The Bills (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) improved to 6-1 on the road this season after holding off the Steelers last Sunday night, 17-10 as one-point underdogs. Buffalo’s defense intercepted Pittsburgh quarterback Devlin Hodges four times, while Josh Allen hit Tyler Kroft on a 14-yard touchdown for the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. The Bills cashed the UNDER in six of seven road games this season, as Buffalo has allowed 20 points or less in each contest away from New Era Field.

In the first matchup this season in Buffalo back in Week 4, the Patriots edge the Bills, 16-10 for their eight consecutive road win in the series. The Bills covered as seven-point underdogs in spite of falling behind 13-0 after the first quarter. New England was limited to one field goal in the final three quarters, while its only touchdown came on a blocked punt return in the first quarter. Brady was limited to 150 yards, while the Patriots were picked up only 11 first downs compared to 23 first downs for Buffalo.

In the last five visits to Gillette Stadium, the Bills have not busted the 17-point mark, but are 2-3 in the past five trips to Foxborough. Granted, one of those victories came in 2016 when Brady was serving his four-game suspension for “Deflategate” in a 16-0 shutout by the Bills. The Patriots are 15-1 at home against the Bills with Brady starting at quarterback as the lone loss came in Week 17 in 2014 in a contest that he played only the first half.

The Bills are currently on a 4-0 run to the UNDER, while seeking their fifth cover in the road underdog role. The Patriots are 4-2 to the OVER at Gillette Stadium, as New England has scored just 29 points in its last two home contests against Kansas City and Dallas.

Rams at 49ers (-6 ½, 45) – 8:15 PM EST

The two-year run of NFC West championships for Los Angeles (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) will come to an end this season as either San Francisco or Seattle will be crowned the division title. The Rams need a miracle if they want an opportunity to defend their NFC championship as Los Angeles needs to win out and for Minnesota to lose to Green Bay and Chicago in order to clinch a Wild Card berth.

The Rams suffered a crucial blow to their playoff hopes in a 44-21 rout at the hands of the Cowboys last Sunday. Los Angeles knocked off Arizona and Seattle in consecutive weeks to reach 8-5, but Dallas ran off 30 unanswered points after Todd Gurley’s touchdown run to make it a 7-7 game early in the second quarter. Gurley was limited to 20 yards on 11 carries as the Rams have lost three road games in a season for the first time in Sean McVay’s three-year tenure as head coach.

The 49ers (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) are not in the clear for a first-round bye yet after getting stunned by the Falcons last Sunday, 29-22. Atlanta scored two touchdowns in the final two seconds, which sounds hard to believe, but Matt Ryan connected with Julio Jones on the go-ahead score, then the Falcons recovered a fumble in the end zone after several desperation laterals on the ensuing kickoff to give OVER backers a miracle win on the total of 50.

San Francisco began the season at 8-0, but the Niners are 3-3 the last six games and face Seattle on the road next Sunday for the NFC West title. Kyle Shanahan’s team owns a dreadful 0-5-1 ATS mark as a favorite of six points or more this season, which includes home defeats to the Seahawks and Falcons. Depending on how things break over the final two weeks, the Niners could sit with home-field advantage in the NFC, or be relegated to Wild Card weekend since four teams currently possess 11-3 marks (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Green Bay).

The Rams swept the 49ers last season, but San Francisco captured the first meeting in 2019 at the L.A. Coliseum back in Week 6. Los Angeles entered on a two-game skid and couldn’t get any offense going in a 20-7 setback to San Francisco as three-point home favorites. Gurley sat out that loss for the Rams with an injury, while quarterback Jared Goff was limited to 78 yards passing as L.A. tries to avoid their first sweep to San Francisco since 2016.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2019, 02:57 AM

by: Josh Inglis

FITZMAGIC FEET

The Ryan Fitzpatrick rushing show continued in Week 15 as the Miami Dolphins QB went Over his rushing total for the third time in four weeks. Only Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards for quarterbacks since Week 12 than the Miami signal-caller, who’s averaging 36 yards on the ground over that time.

This week, Fitzpatrick will take on a Cincinnati Bengals team that has let Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray and Jackson top their rushing totals this year. Even with strong results in four games and leading his team in rushing in Weeks 12 and 14, we’re still getting an incredibly modest total of 22.5 rushing yards which we have no problem in taking the Over.

HOLD ON TIGHT

Four tight ends find themselves in the Top-10 in targets over the last two weeks: George Kittle (25), Tyler Higbee (25), Zach Ertz (23), and Travis Kelce (22). Of those four, Higbee and Ertz have the lowest receiving yardage total this week at 58.5 and 67.5 respectively.

The Rams’ Higbee has produced three 100-yard games with Gerald Everett sidelined but the latter returned to practice on Wednesday and could cut into Higbee’s snaps, making a play on the breakout TE volatile.

Ertz’s yardage might be the best value of the bunch as the Eagles TE has gone Over 67.5 yards in three of his last five weeks and faces a Dallas Cowboys defense that’s giving up the fourth-most yards to TEs (63.7).

With Philly having to rely on its tight ends for passing production thanks to a paper-thin receiving core, the 67.5 yards looks like a steal, especially after Dallas let Higbee put up a 12/111/0 last week. Like a good wine with a great meal, look to compliment the Over with an anytime TD.

HAWKS PICKING ON CARDS

It’s a real shame that Kyle Allen had to get benched after we cashed on his Over 0.5 interceptions in back-to-back weeks with ease. But that’s what you get when you throw 10 interceptions over your last five games.

The Seattle Seahawks have forced an INT in five straight games, picking off nine passes against some solid QBs: Jimmy Garappolo, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and Kyle Allen.

Up next for the NFC leaders is Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. The rookie QB has thrown for just 10 INTs this year but five of those 10 have come in the last three weeks. Murray’s Over 0.5 INTs is a little juicy at -154 but the matchup favors the Over.

DIVISIONAL DOWN UNDER

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have rewarded Under backers all year. The Bills are 3-11 O/U on the season and have rattled off four straight Unders. The Bills hit the road this Saturday — where they are 1-6 O/U — and travel to New England to face the Patriots, who have hit the Under in their last three home games.

Looking at a first-half Under play, both teams sit 29th and 30th in first-half points scored since Week 13 with a combined total of 16.5 while both their defenses sit No. 1 and No. 2 in first-half points allowed. The Bills’ No. 4 defense is allowing an average of 7.1 first-half points a game with the Pats posting the next best number at 7.8 first-half points allowed.

If you’re looking for a first-half total or a full-game total, both these Top-5 defenses are worth putting your money on.

PRIMETIME DOGGYSTYLE

Hear us out before we try to sell you on a three-team underdog parlay in primetime: the three primetime underdogs are a combined 26-13 on the year and 10-5 over the last five weeks.

Do we have your attention yet?

Two of three teams have Top-8 defenses and the other has Aaron Rodgers.

Putting the L.A. Rams, Chicago Bears (at home) and the Green Bay Packers together on the moneyline may be a big swing, but at +3,070 it may be worth a small play. Think of all the bragging you could do over the holidays after a winner like that.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2019, 12:19 PM

NFL Week 16 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

A shoulder issue isn't expected to sideline Dak Prescott for Dallas' huge game at Philadelphia.

NFL Week 16 has a quarterback who might not be 100 percent, but he is in no position to sit out. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

DALLAS COWBOYS: Quarterback Dak Prescott has an injury to his right (throwing) shoulder, but with the Cowboys and Eagles in a battle for the NFC East title, the Dallas QB can ill afford to rest. “Prescott is going to play, but we expect him to be somewhat limited,” Osterman said. “We’re at Cowboys -1.5, and it had been Cowboys -2.5.”

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Running back Dalvin Cook (chest) seems unlikely to play, in a key NFC North clash against visiting Green Bay on Monday night. But The SuperBook was prepared for that possibility. “We expected Cook to be out. That line has actually moved in the Vikings’ favor.” Indeed, the Vikings opened -4.5 and reached -5.5 midweek.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Running back Carlos Hyde (ankle), who has 1,030 yards on the ground and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, is questionable at Tampa Bay. However, Osterman said The SuperBook made no move off that information yet. The Texans are 3-point favorites.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Quarterback Jameis Winston (thumb/knee) is questionable, but oddsmakers believe he’ll play against Houston. “Winston was questionable with the same injury last week and played well, so no move.” The Bucs are 3-point home underdogs.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Wideout Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable, although that seems to be the case every week, so there’s been no adjustment. “We’ve learned to kind of ignore the Pats’ injury report unless there is more tangible evidence of someone being out. They list a lot of guys as questionable every week.” New England is laying 6.5 at home against Buffalo on Saturday.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder), who has 1,150 rushing yards and averages 4.8 yards per carry, is out for the Raiders’ game at the Los Angeles Chargers. “Jacobs is worth a half-point to the spread and the total. He’s their main source of offense right now.” The Raiders are 7.5-point underdogs, with the total at 45.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The defense isn’t as banged up as last week, when several players were out or questionable, but end Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) is among those who won’t play. However, there was no adjustment, and the 49ers are 6.5-point home favorites against the Rams on Saturday night.

Weather Watch

BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND: The middle layer of Saturday’s three-game NFL sandwich will be a chilly one, with the temperature around 30 for a 4:25 p.m. ET start. “The total has come down 1.5 points. Some of that move has to do with the weather, but both teams are also a little banged up.” The total actually dipped 2 points, from 38.5 to 36.5, but rebounded to 37 Thursday.

CINCINNATI AT MIAMI: A battle among two of the league’s worst teams could be played in the South Florida rain. There’s an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday. However, Osterman said that hasn’t yet impacted the total, which sits at 46.

OAKLAND AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: There’s a 50 percent chance of rain in L.A. on Sunday. “The total has come down 1.5 points. That’s more to do with Josh Jacobs being out than the weather.” The total is at 45.
Pros vs. Joes

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: “The only game that is Pros vs. Joes is this one. The public has been all over the Cowboys, but the line has come down with concern over Dak Prescott’s shoulder. We got some early sharp money on the Eagles at +3 (-120). We are currently at Cowboys -2.”

Reverse Line Moves

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: A repeat of the Pros vs. Joes, with sharp action coming in on the Eagles, but more money flowing toward the Cowboys for Sunday’s NFC East showdown.

Announcement

Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment