Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[Udog]

NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 12:

Road Teams: 90-68-4 ATS
Home Teams: 68-90-4 ATS

Favorites: 69-89-4 ATS
Underdogs: 89-69-4 ATS

Home Faves: 41-62-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 27-28 ATS

Road Faves: 28-27 ATS
Road Dogs: 62-41-4 ATS

O/U: 79-83


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by: Josh Inglis


COLTS CONTROL THE LINE

The Indianapolis Colts’ Marlon Mack fractured his hand last Sunday and will be out for Thursday’s game against the Houston Texans. Coach Frank Reich told reporters that Nyheim Hines will stick with his passing role as either Jordan Wilkins or Johnathan Williams will take over the early-down work. The lead spot should be Williams’ as Wilkins was inactive in Week 11 with an ankle injury, a DNP on the team’s estimated practice report on Monday and limited on Tuesday.

The Colts ran for a robust 264 yards versus the Texans as Williams passed the century mark in his fill-in role on just 13 touches. Indy’s offensive-line has been dominating the line of scrimmage of late and all year as they are rushing for an average of 170.7 yards in the last three games (second-most) and 172.2 yards per game on the road (second-most).

Houston gave up 264 rushing yards last week to the best rushing team in the league but have also surrendered the ninth-most yards per rush this year and the third-most over the last three weeks.

We are banking on the Colts’ running game and feel this is a plus matchup for Williams in a divisional game that will decide an AFC South leader. Even if Wilkins dresses, we still like the Colts to feature the run and hand out double-digit rushes to Williams. Take Williams’ rushing total on any number below 65 yards.


CHECK DOWN VALUE

Nick Foles got his job back last week and fell short in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. The Jaguars QB padded his stats in garbage time and fell in love with his checkdowns as he averaged just 6.3 yards per pass attempt — that’s Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky territory. Still, Foles attempted 47 passes and completed 33 which makes us think there is some value in Jacksonville’s receivers' reception totals for their Week 12 matchup against a Tennessee Titans 22nd-ranked pass defense.

The object of Foles’ attention last week was receiver D.J. Chark. Chark was the most targeted receiver in the league last week catching eight of his 15 targets while seeing 36 targets in his last three matches. If Foles is afraid to take his shots, Chark could easily surpass a reception total of 4 or 5.

We will take the Over on any total below six for Chark’s reception total.


PRIMETIME 3-TEAM TEASER

Here is a three-team, six-point teaser for this week’s primetime games that pays out +160.

IND +9.5 @ HOU: As mentioned above, the Colts could dominate this game on the ground and control the tempo versus a Texans team is 1-3 ATS as the favorite this year. DeShaun Watson is also just 1-2 versus the Colts over his career losing by seven this year, winning by three in Indianapolis in 2018 and losing by a field goal at home in Week 13 last year.

GB @ SF +3: San Francisco will look to ride the momentum from last week’s come-from-behind win and will get to do so on Sunday Night Football versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Packers let a terrible Panthers team hang around and escaped with a win in Week 10 before hitting their bye in Week 11. Rodgers hasn’t looked great in his last two starts, going 40 for 64 for just 394 yards and one TD since Week 9. We don’t see GB winning by more than thre

BAL +3 @ LAR: Baltimore may be the best team in football but the fact that they are only three-point favorites versus a team led by a quarterback who is 27th in QBR — just ahead of Andy Dalton and Mitch Trubisky — is disrespect to Lamar Jackson. Goff may have more passing weapons back for the Monday nighter, but the Rams have averaged just nine points per game against top-10 DVOA defenses since Week 3.


BYE THE BOOK

Since Week 4, teams coming off their bye week are 9-15 against the spread. Of those games, favorites are 5-5 ATS but the dogs are having the most problems going 4-10 ATS to date. This week has four teams coming out of their bye week, with three of those four being underdogs.

Seattle (+1.5) will probably be a popular public pick this week and we don’t blame backers as that Eagles' offense isn’t threatening with a receiving core that featured Jordan Matthews last week.

The Giants (+6.5) could roll into Chicago and surprise a team that doesn’t know who will be starting at quarterback thanks to a mysterious hip-pointer injury to Mitch Trubisky. If Daniel Jones and the offense can limit turnovers (2.5 per game), then the Giants have a good shot at covering and bucking the trend.

Green Bay (+3) is our favorite bye team to not cover this week. The Packers’ struggling passing offense will be in for a battle versus San Fran’s No. 2 pass defense. The Niners are tightening things up even more at home as they are giving up just 132 yards through the air at Levi’s Stadium — the lowest mark in the league. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS on spreads less than six points.


NO TDS IN 10 QUARTERS

No defense is hotter than Atlanta Falcons’. The former bottom-five defense has held opponents to 13 points a game over the last three weeks and will look to make it a natural clean sweep against divisional opponents as they entertain the Buccaneers on Sunday.

Atlanta held the Saints’ No.8 offense to just nine points (three field goals) on the road and embarrassed the Panthers by giving up just a field goal last week. Now they get to tee off on a quarterback who has six interceptions, two fumbles and has been sacked six times in his last two games. Look for the Falcons’ pass rush to bully Jameis Winston all day after sacking Drew Brees six times in Week 10 and Kyle Allen five times in Week 11.

We are betting on a surging defense that hasn’t allowed a TD in their last 10 quarters while at the same time fading a quarterback who could lose his job at any moment. Take the Buccaneers’ team total Under 23.5.

[Udog]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 8-2 O/U
t2. Cowboys 7-3 O/U
t2. Lions 7-3 O/U
t4. Cardinals 7-4 O/U
t4. Chiefs 7-4 O/U
t6. Baltimore, Carolina, Indianapolis, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland & Seattle all tied at 6-4 O/U


NFL's Top Under Teams:

1. Chargers 8-3 U/O
t2. Falcons 7-3
t2. Bills 7-3
t2. Bears 7-3
t2. Bengals 7-3
t2. Rams 7-3
t2. Patriots 7-3
t2. Steelers 7-3
t9. Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami, & Washington all tied at 6-4

[Udog]

TNF - Colts at Texans
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Colts (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) rebounded from a stunning loss as an 11-point underdog to the Dolphins the previous week to cruise past the Jaguars, 33-13 as 2 ½-point favorites. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett returned to the lineup for the Colts after missing the Miami game with a knee injury as threw for 148 yards and a touchdown, while running for another score.

Jacksonville scored the first touchdown of the game, but it was all Indianapolis after that as the Colts scored the next 31 points. The Colts torched the Jaguars on the ground by rushing for 264 yards on 36 carries, led by 116 yards from Jonathan Williams, who had rushed for 95 yards in his career prior to busting out on Sunday. Marlon Mack also hit the century mark on the ground as the Colts’ running back racked up 109 yards and a touchdown, but left the game with a fractured hand and will miss several weeks.

The Texans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) had an excellent opportunity to make a statement as one of the top teams in the AFC, but Houston’s offense could never get going in a 41-7 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore. The lone Texans’ touchdown came on a 41-yard scamper from Carlos Hyde in the fourth quarter with Houston sitting in a 34-0 hole, as Deshaun Watson was limited to 169 yards passing. Watson has thrown for under 201 yards in four games this season, as Houston fell to 1-3 in those contests.

Houston’s defense allowed 263 yards rushing to Baltimore, as the Texans’ first three losses came by a combined 11 points before losing by 34 last Sunday. The Texans fell to 3-3 ATS in the role of an underdog, while giving up its most points since yielding 41 points at Seattle in a three-point defeat in 2017. Houston’s pass defense has been lit up during the last six games by allowing 17 touchdown passes, including at least three passing touchdowns five times in this stretch.

MORE ON THAT LEAKY DEFENSE

Going further into that last nugget regarding the Texans and how opponents have torched them through the air lately is eye-opening. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson threw four touchdown passes last week, the only aberration is Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew, who failed to get the Jaguars in the end zone in a 26-3 setback in London to Houston. But Oakland’s Derek Carr posted three touchdown passes in a 27-24 defeat at Houston in Week 8, Brissett tossed four touchdowns in a seven-point win by the Colts in Week 7, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes put up three in Week 6, and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan threw three touchdowns in Week 5.

ON THE ROAD AGAIN

The Colts began the season with a pair of contests away from Lucas Oil Stadium by losing to the Chargers in overtime and edging the Titans. Since the bye week, Indianapolis has played four of five games at home, as the lone road affair came at Pittsburgh in a 26-24 defeat in Week 9. The Colts have split their four away contests, as every game has been decided by six points or fewer. Under head coach Frank Reich, the Colts own a 6-4-1 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog.

DIVISION IMPLICATIONS

Indianapolis is the only team in the AFC South to post a perfect record against division foes so far at 3-0. Houston has gone 2-1 inside the AFC South with both victories coming against Jacksonville and the loss coming to Indianapolis (more on that in a moment). Both the Colts and Texans own a one-game advantage over the Titans (who Indianapolis has already defeated once), while the Jaguars are sitting in last place at 4-6. The Colts host the Titans next week, while Houston draws Tennessee twice in the final three weeks of the season.

SERIES HISTORY

These division rivals hooked up three times last season as the road team won each time. Houston outlasted Indianapolis in overtime, 37-34 at Lucas Oil Stadium to pick up its first victory following an 0-3 start that spurred a nine-game winning streak. That hot stretch ended at NRG Stadium in Week 14 when the Colts held off the Texans, 24-21 as four-point underdogs, highlighted by 399 yards passing and two touchdowns from Andrew Luck.

In the Wild Card round, the Colts cruised past the AFC South champion Texans, 21-7 as 1 ½-point road underdogs. The top three offensive weapons from that game for Indianapolis that day (Luck, Mack, and T.Y. Hilton) are not available for Thursday, but the Colts are seeking the season sweep of the Texans for the first time since 2017.

The Colts held off the Texans in Week 7 as 1 ½-point favorites at Lucas Oil Stadium, 30-23 following the bye week. Brissett’s highest touchdown passing total of the season took place in that game (4), while throwing for a season-high 326 yards. Indianapolis built a 14-9 halftime lead before Brissett hooked up with tight end Eric Ebron on a four-yard touchdown pass early in the third quarter for a commanding 21-9 advantage. The Texans crept back within five points on a Watson touchdown connection with DeAndre Hopkins with 6:38 remaining in regulation, but that’s as close as Houston would get.

TOTAL TALK

After watching the ‘over’ connect in six straight primetime games in Week 9 and 10, the ‘under’ stormed back with a 3-0 mark in Week 11 and all of the results were never in doubt. For this week’s divisional matchup between the Colts and Texans, the total opened at 45 ½ and most books are holding 45 as of Wednesday.

The ‘over’ (46 ½) cashed in the first matchup between the pair but that outcome could be considered an anomaly, since the ‘under’ was on a 5-1 run in the previous six meetings.

Chris David provides us with his thoughts on the first encounter, plus offers up his total lean for the rematch.

He said, “What stands out from the first game is that both teams moved the football, combining for close to 400 yards of offense and 20-plus first downs. Both teams put up five scores and the difference came down to Houston kicking three field goals, while Indianapolis put four touchdowns and a late safety. The four scores for the Colts came from Brissett and that was a career record day for him. While Brissett has filled in the gap nicely for the previous QB that quit on the Colts, it’s still tough to trust him on the road. In 11 games outside of Lucas Oil Stadium, Indy has gone 3-8 with Brissett.”

Sticking with the numbers that CD mentioned, make a note that Brissett has gone 2-2 outside of Indy this season and he was knocked out early in a 28-26 loss at the Steelers in Week 9. Also, the other road win in his career came in 2017 at Houston but the Texans had Tom Savage at QB and he’s no longer in the NFL.

The Texans have watched the ‘under’ go 6-4 this season while the Colts have gone 6-4 to the ‘over.’ Over the past two seasons, Houston has been a great ‘under’ bet at home but David believes we should tread lightly on that trend.

“Houston has watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 at home this season and going back to the 2018 campaign, the low side is on a 9-4 (69%) run at NRG Stadium. Delving into those numbers further, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in divisional matchups but the Colts (24, 21) did manage to put up points in two wins. This year’s defense for the Texans has taken a step back due to injuries (J.J. Watt) and trades (Jadeveon Clowney). Fortunately for Houston, its offense has had to pick up the slack and it’s done so. In six wins, the club is averaging 29.5 PPG. And after losses, the team is averaging 31 PPG. The team total for Houston (25 ½) looks more than doable and I believe we’ll see more sixes instead of threes on Thursday,” added David.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson weighs in on his thoughts regarding this matchup, “In short, the statistics paint Houston as the much stronger offense while the Colts have the edge on defense. Houston is far more productive in the passing game gaining a full yard per pass attempt more than Indianapolis while also rushing for nearly a half yard more per carry. The Colts have effective defensive numbers against the run allowing just 97 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush while also allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and leaving opposing quarterbacks with lower ratings by nine points on average.”

Even though these teams own identical records, Nelson points out the Texans have endured a tougher schedule to this point, “Houston has played the fifth-toughest schedule in the league compared to the #24 slate for the Colts. The difference so far has been facing the Ravens in the 1st place draw while already playing the Saints from the NFC South draw. The schedule gap will grow further next week when the Texans host the Patriots though the path in the final four weeks is manageable for Houston, still to play the Titans twice while also facing Denver and Tampa Bay.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Jacoby Brissett (IND)
Over 21 ½ (-110)
Under 21 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Jacoby Brissett (IND)
Over 1 ½ (-110)
Under 1 ½ (-110)

Will Jacoby Brissett (IND) throw an interception?
Yes +105
Under -125

Total Receiving Yards – Eric Ebron (IND)
Over 36 ½ (-110)
Under 36 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Over 265 ½ (-110)
Under 265 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Over 1 ½ (-150)
Under 1 ½ (+130)

Total Rushing Yards – Carlos Hyde (HOU)
Over 69 ½ (-110)
Under 69 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
Over 82 ½ (-110)
Under 82 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

On Tuesday November 12, the Westgate Superbook released early lines for the NFL as the Texans opened as a 5 ½-point favorite against the Colts. Following Sunday’s results, Houston dropped to a 3 ½-point favorite at the Westgate, while the total remained the same at 45 ½.

Favorites have posted a 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS mark in the last seven Thursday night games, but only two home teams have won and covered in the favorite role (Patriots in Week 6 and Browns in Week 11).

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


JAGS TO FEATURE FOURNETTE

Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Marrone believes that RB Leonard Fournette didn’t touch the ball enough last week in their loss to the Colts. The lead back, who had averaged 26 touches a game over his previous six contests, handled the ball just 15 times in Week 11 but game flow was a big reason for that.

The Jaguars should have a better time keeping the game close and allow Fournette to be an option in both the running and passing game as they visit the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has three wins in their last six games but has only won by three or four points in each of those games, meaning they aren’t blowing anyone out and forcing teams to abandon the run.

There is no reason that the Jacksonville RB can't rush the ball 17-20 times while chipping in half a dozen catches. With the Titans allowing four yards per carry and six yards per pass attempt to opposing RBs and Fournette averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per target, we can take the difference of those totals and see a 20-rush and seven-target day for Fournette working out to 127 total yards.

Take the Over on Fournette’s total yards of 113.5 yards.


FINGERS CROSSED FOR HILTON ON TNF

T.Y. Hilton is a game-time decision for Thursday Night Football as the Colts lock horns with the Texans. The Colts receiver was sidelined in Tuesday’s practice but was a full participant on Wednesday ahead of their big divisional showdown with the Houston Texans.

Having Hilton in the lineup would be a godsend for Jacoby Brissett and the offense as the Texans secondary is in shambles with six players out or questionable. Houston will also be giving meaningful snaps to the recently released-then-signed CB Vernon Hargreaves.

In his 16 games against the Texans over his career, Hilton has 87 catches for 1,604 yards and 10 TDs — that includes seven 100-yard games. No.1 WRs are putting up close to 80 yards per game against the Texans over the year.

If the wideout is declared active and his market opens closer to kick off, consider taking the Over on Hilton’s receiving total on any number below 81 yards.


DOLPHINS BACK TO THEIR OLD SELVES

The Miami Dolphins streak of five-straight wins against the spread is over after they got filled by the Buffalo Bills 37-20 last week. Buffalo had scored more than 21 points just twice in their last six games before the 37-point explosion. Our takeaway from that game: Miami is still a very bad football team.

On the offensive side of things, their current No.1 running back, Kalen Ballage, is averaging 1.9 yards per carry. That number is historically bad as it would be the worst mark in league history. The Dolphins offensive coordinator even put the blame on Ballage’s teammates and coaches, telling reporters that they needed to do better.

On the defensive side of the ball, Miami just sent their two starting safeties to the I.R. This will only make the league's worst passing defense even worse heading into their Sunday contest against the Cleveland Browns.

Buffalo beat the Dolphins in every quarter last week, becoming the fourth team this year to do so. Over their eight losses this year, Miami has lost 26 of 32 quarters while winning just four.

With a price of +650, sign us up for the Browns winning every quarter Sunday.


TEXANS BURNED BY PASS-CATCHING RBS

Want another Thursday night play? How about a running back who is 15th in the league in receptions amongst RBs facing the league’s worst defense at defending passes against running backs?

Indianapolis’ Nyheim Hines’ role is consistent. The third-down back sees on average of four targets a game and may have an expanded role this week with the absence of Marlon Mack.

Hines has turned 11 targets into seven catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks but will have a chance to better those numbers against the Texans who give up 64 yards passing to opposing RBs this year and let non-pass catching Mark Ingram set a season-high in receiving yards last week with 37.

We think the total might be set a little high but feel that the Over is still the play, especially with a plus matchup and RB snaps up for grabs.


EASY PICKINGS

The New Orleans Saints forced four interceptions last week against the human turnover machine better known as Jameis Winston. This week the Saints get to face the Panthers and rookie QB Kyle Allen who threw four INTs himself last week and has thrown nine picks in his last four games.

Allen has been facing serious pressure making the young QB force some throws. His nine INTs were the product of 18 sacks as the Carolina offensive line has been getting dominated in November. Things will only get worse Sunday as the Saints’ defense has the fourth-most sacks at home.

It is a juicy play but we feel confident in Allen throwing at least one interception. Take the Over on Allen’s 0.5 INTs.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IND at HOU 08:20 PM

IND +3.5

O 45.5

[StarDust Bum]

Hopkins' 2 TDs help Texans top Colts
November 21, 2019

HOUSTON (AP) Deshaun Watson threw two touchdown passes to DeAndre Hopkins and finished with 298 yards to help the Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 20-17 on Thursday night to take the AFC South lead.

The Texans (7-4), who were embarrassed by Baltimore 41-7 on Sunday, trailed by four early in the fourth quarter when Hopkins got in front of Pierre Desir and stretched out to haul in a 30-yard reception to give the Texans a 20-17 lead. The Texans got things going on that drive with a 33-yard run by Carlos Hyde.

Houston's defense stepped up after that, forcing a punt on the next drive before stopping the Colts (6-5) on fourth-and-7 with 3 minutes left. Jacoby Brissett threw for 129 yards, and came up a yard shy of a first down on Indy's fourth-down attempt late in the fourth quarter.

Hopkins finished with had 94 yards receiving and his first TD reception came on a 35-yards grab in the second quarter. Will Fuller, who returned after sitting out three games with a hamstring injury, had seven catches for 140 yards for the Texans.

T.Y. Hilton had topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last six games against the Texans and entered averaging 133.3 receiving yards in seven career games at NRG Stadium. He wasn't a factor, finishing with just 18 yards receiving in his return after missing three games with a calf injury.

There were about 6 minutes left in the third quarter when Jonathan Williams, who helped fill in for injured starter Marlon Mack, wriggled away from three defenders and dashed 13 yards for a touchdown to put the Colts up 17-10.

Fuller had a 51-yard reception on the first play of Houston's next drive, but the Texans couldn't move the ball after that and settled for a 36-yard field goal to cut the lead to four.

The Texans led 3-0 after a field goal early in the second quarter.

There were about 8 minutes left in the second when Kenny Moore tipped a pass from Watson and intercepted it. It was the first time Watson had thrown an interception at home since Oct. 14, 2018, against the Bills, a streak of 303 attempts which was the longest active run in the NFL.

The Colts cashed in on the mistake when Brissett scrambled 5 yards for a touchdown to make it 7-3.

There were 2 minutes left in the first half when Watson avoided the rush and found Hopkins wide open in the end zone for a 35-yard touchdown pass to put Houston back on top 10-7.

Indianapolis added a field goal at the end of the first half to leave it tied at 10l at halftime.

INJURIES

Houston ILB Dylan Cole injured his calf in the second half and didn't return. ... Texans DE Carlos Watkins left in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury.

UP NEXT

Colts: Host Tennessee on Dec. 1.

Texans: Host New England on Dec. 1.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/21/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%..........-0.50
11/18/2019.............2-0-0........100.00%........+10.00
11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

Totals...................31-39-1.........44.28%..........-65.00


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/21/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/18/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+10.00
11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


Totals.....................13 - 17..........-28.50............13 - 19..............-49.50...........-78.00


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NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

College hoop teams getting highest %age of their points on 3-pointers:

— North Florida 53.8%

— Virginia Tech 51%

— Villanova 50%

— Bowling Green 46.8%

— TCU, Illinois-Chicago 46%

— Binghamton 45.9%

Quote of the Day
“He had a great brain and was a great thinker. He was an intellect that I spent every morning with before we played a game. I spent more time with him than any other player. Fred was a special, special human being who will be missed.”
Fran Tarkenton, talking about the late Fred Cox, his old teammate with Minnesota

Friday’s quiz
What team did OJ Simpson finish his NFL career with?

Thursday’s quiz
Florida State basketball coach Leonard Hamilton was once head coach of the Washington Wizards.

Wednesday’s quiz
Dan Marino is the quarterback who has won the most games (147) without winning an NFL championship.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here….

13) Texans 20, Colts 17— Houston takes over first place in AFC South; they outgained the Colts by 100 yards (396-296). Indy threw ball for only 121 yards, even though Houston’s secondary is banged-up. Colts converted 9-15 3rd down plays, but fall to 6-5.

12) Disappointing but hardly surprising that major league baseball may want to implement a plan to shrink minor league baseball, by as many as 100 teams.

MLB enjoys an exemption from federal antitrust law that has lasted since the Supreme Court’s decision in the 1922 case Federal Baseball Club v. National League; that exemption could be used as leverage by Congress against shrinking the minor leagues.

Minor league baseball is affordable fun in lot of smaller towns around the country, and also provides a decent amount of jobs; would be sad if the greed of major league owners eliminated those jobs, and eliminated fun for lot of people in smaller towns.

11) Speaking of the minor leagues, the Class A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes will be giving away a Cody Bellinger/Mike Trout “double MVP bobblehead” at a 2020 home game this summer; the Quakes are only team both Bellinger/Trout have played for.

10) Chicago White Sox signed C Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73M contract.

9) Rough night for the Pac-12:
— Omaha 85, Washington State 77
— Coastal Carolina 79, Utah 57
— Duke 87, California 52
— Arizona 71, South Dakota State 64
— Stanford 80, William & Mary 50
— UCLA xx, Hofstra xx

8) Bucks 137, Trailblazers 129— Portland is a disappointing 5-10. Antetokounmpo scored 24 points, had 19 rebounds, 15 assists for the Bucks.

7) Notre Dame 64, Toledo 59 OT— Rockets were 7-point underdogs; they blew a 5-point lead in the last minute of regulation. Irish hit a 3-pointer at buzzer to force OT.

Willie Jackson had 11 points, 20 rebounds for the Rockets.

6) On November 21, 1976, the classic movie Rocky was released; it cost $1M to make, and grossed $225M worldwide. It was nominated for 10 Academy Awards- for better or worse, they’ve made seven sequels.

5) The football field in the new dome the Rams/Chargers will play in starting next year will be 100 feet below ground level, and is at the center of a construction site three times the size of Disneyland. It will wind up costing over $5B; thats billion, with a B.

4) Charlotte Hornets’ Devonte Graham is the 4th player in NBA history to make 50+ 3’s and dish out 100+ assists in his team’s first 15 games of the season.

3) Georgetown 82, Texas 66— Patrick Ewing’s Hoyas play Duke tonight on the court where Ewing called home during his stellar NBA career. Texas led this game by 5 at the half.

2) Western Carolina 96, Jacksonville 94 2OT— Catamounts were down 15 at the half, get their first road win in three tries. Tough loss for Artis Gilmore’s alma mater.

1) RIP Fred Cox, 80, the Vikings’ all-time leading scorer and the inventor of the Nerf football. Cox finished his career with 1,365 points and led the Vikings in scoring 11 years in a row.

Cox became a chiropractor after his kicking days were done.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New England went to the effort of listing Tom Brady (elbow) as questionable for Sunday's home game against Dallas. The SuperBook isn't buying it, though, with the Patriots still 6-point favorites.

NFL Week 12 will without a doubt include Tom Brady on the field, despite a late-week head fake from the Patriots. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Among a lengthy Patriots injury list out Friday was Tom Brady’s name, noting the star quarterback was questionable with an elbow issue. New England dipped from -6.5 to -6 for its clash with visiting Dallas, but Osterman said that wasn’t due to Brady’s status. “The Patriots like to list a lot of guys questionable. We fully expect Brady to play.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mike Tomlin’s troops face a skill-position shortage, as wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) will sit out at Cincinnati. “Those were both expected, but once it became 100 percent known, the line dropped a half-point.” The Steelers are still -6.5 (-120) against the winless Bengals.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Along with the suspensions of Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi for their roles in last week’s brawl against Pittsburgh, fellow defensive lineman Olivier Vernon (knee) is also out against visiting Miami. But Osterman said that didn’t impact the line, which has been at Browns -10.5 almost all week.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Devonta Freeman (foot) won’t play at home against Tampa Bay, but it’s another instance of an expected absence and had no impact on the line. Atlanta is laying 3.5.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Tight end George Kittle (knee/ankle) missed the last two games and is questionable Sunday against visiting Green Bay. If Kittle plays, “It’s maybe a 10-cent move. We would go from -3.5 (even) to -3.5 (-110).” However, wideouts Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are also questionable. “If more than one of those three is out, I could see a half-point move.”

DETROIT LIONS: QB Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his third straight game, but Jeff Driskel starting was baked into the cake from the moment the Lions were posted -3.5 at Washington. The SuperBook briefly went to -3, but has been at -3.5 since Monday morning.

Weather Watch

OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: Pretty much every game in the Northeast on Sunday is looking at rain. In this instance, there’s a 100 percent chance of precipitation at MetLife Stadium. “The total has come down 1.5 points because of the rain forecast.” The total was at 46.5 Friday.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Similar story, with a 90 percent chance of rain in Philly, prompting The SuperBook to drop the total from 49 to 48.

DALLAS AT NEW ENGLAND: Again, if it’s in the Northeast, it’s probably going to see rain, with a 100 percent chance of precipitation on Sunday. The total adjusted down 1.5 points to 44.5.

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: It could be a little tough sledding for the warm-weather Dolphins, with temperatures in the low-40s and winds at 15 mph, but that’s not swaying oddsmakers. “No effect from the weather.” Rather, the total is up 1 point to 45.5 due to public money on the Over.

DETROIT AT WASHINGTON: This game might dodge the downpours expected throughout the Northeast, but some pregame rain could hit FedEx Field. “I would expect a small move if the field is affected, but most likely no move.”

Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT BUFFALO: After covering at Minnesota last week, the Broncos are again drawing sharp action. “Pros on the Broncos, public on the Bills.” Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite.

OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: The aforementioned weather could help keep this game tight, with the Raiders laying 3. Sharp play is on the short home ‘dog, while the public is on Oakland.

GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: “Pros are on the 49ers, and the public is on the Packers,” Osterman said of the Sunday night game. San Francisco opened -3.5, reached -4, dipped to -3, then got back to -3.5.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles opened -2.5, but Seahawks money took the line to Philly -1. “Pros are on the Eagles, and the public is on the Seahawks. The line moved in favor of the public. A lot of ‘Hawks money coming in.”

BALTIMORE AT LOS ANGELES: The Ravens opened -2.5, briefly got to -3.5 Monday, then spent the rest of the week at -3. “The public is all over the Ravens. The pros are on the Rams.”

Reverse Line Moves

DENVER AT BUFFALO: The Bills dropped from -4.5 to -3.5, but they are taking the bulk of the action, with sharp play on Denver driving the number down.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 12
Joe Williams

It's Week 12 of the National Football League regular season, as we're rounding the corner and heading for home. This is the final week of bye weeks for teams, and we'll have Thanksgiving next week with three Thursday battles. The Week 12 schedule started off with an AFC South defensive slog, as the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans battle saw the total cash 'under' tickets

What will we see this week, as the books look to bounce back after the public cashed big in Week 11.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-7 5-9 6-8

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 79-82-1 76-85-1 72-86-4

The totals ended up going 7-7 last week, with the 'under' remaining slightly ahead (82-79-1) for the season. It looked like the 'over' was going to dominate the weekend early on, but the late-game window saw the 'under' go 2-1, with the Sunday night and Monday night games also going well under.

The 'under' went 9-5 in the first half and bettors chasing 'over' tickets came up short as the low side produced an 8-6 mark in the second-half. On the season, here are the overall numbers for both the first-half (76-85-1) and second-half (72-86-4).

Division Bell

In the seven divisional battles in Week 11, the slight edge went to the 'over' - although the highly-anticipated AFC West showdown in Mexico City on Monday night between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers at Estadio Azteca cashed low. The under is now 29-24 (54.7%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's result between the Colts and Texans.

Divisional Game Results Week 11
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (41.5) Cleveland 21, Pittsburgh 7
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Over (50.5) New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 17
Atlanta at Carolina Under (49) Atlanta 29, Carolina 3
Jacksonville at Indianapolis Over (42) Indianapolis 33, Jacksonville 13
Buffalo at Miami Over (41.5) Buffalo 37, Miami 20
Arizona at San Francisco Over (44) San Francisco 36, Arizona 26
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers Under (53) Kansas City 24, L.A. Chargers 17

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at San Francisco (SNF): 44 to 48
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: 54 ½ to 51 ½
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (MNF): 49 to 46 ½
Carolina at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ½
Dallas at New England: 42 to 40
Denver at Buffalo: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Seattle at Philadelphia: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 87%
Denver at Buffalo: Over 83%
Detroit at Washington: Under 80%
Miami at Cleveland: Over 77%
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 75%
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: Under 70%
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (66 percent) in the Seattle at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Jacksonville at Tennessee (63 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 12

Week 11 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 4-3 23-28
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 18-17
AFC vs. AFC 0-2 15-14-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-1 24-22

Other Week 12 Action

Denver at Buffalo: The lowest total on the board will feature a little Allen-on-Allen crime. Quarterback Brandon Allen starts for the Broncos, while QB Josh Allen is the man in Buffalo, no relation. The Broncos have hit the 'under' in six of 10 games overall, and 3-2 in five games on the road. They're just 27th in the NFL with 17.2 points per game on offense, while ranking eighth in the NFL with 19.7 points per game allowed. They're averaging just 19.6 PPG on the road in five games, slightly higher than their overall mark. The Bills were the last team to hit an 'over', as the 'under' cashed in their first five. The under is just 3-2 in their past five games, but two of those games were high-scoring offensive performances against the lowly Dolphins. In the other three games against Philly, Washington and Cleveland during that five-game span, the offense is sputtering, averaging just 17.7 PPG.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers blasted the Bengals 27-3 back in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, as the 'under' easily connected in that game. For the Bengals, the 'over' is actually 3-1 in their four home games, although they have scored just 17, 23, 17 and 13. It's their defense which has been trampled at Paul Brown Stadium, yielding 41, 26, 27 and 49. The Steelers have had their issues on the road this season, and the 'under' is actually a perfect 4-0 away from the Steel City. They scored just three points in Week 1 at New England, and seven last time out on Thursday in Cleveland. They'll be without center Maurkice Pouncey due to suspension from that Browns brawl in Week 11, so will that affect the offense? Six of the last eight meetings in this series have gone 'under.'

N.Y. Giants at Chicago: The Giants have struggled offensively with 322.2 total yards per game, ranking 24th, and they're a rather middling 22nd with 20.3 PPG. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 on the road this season for the G-Men, averaging 23.2 PPG, and the Giants have gone over in each of their past three games. Their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, allowing 27 or more point in six consecutive outings. Will that mean Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally rolls up big offensive numbers against someone? The 'under' has hit in four straight for Chicago, as they're averaging 14.3 PPG during that four-game span. Their biggest production was a 20-point outburst in a win against the Lions at home, which is where they'll be Sunday. The Bears have posted 25, 16 and 20 in their past three at home, while allowing an average of 22.0 PPG in the past three at Soldier Field.

Oakland at N.Y. Jets: The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total yards allowed at 370.0, and they're a dismal 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 264.1. It could be the perfect storm for Jets QB Sam Darnold, who had a career-high four touchdown strikes last week in Washington. In their four road games this season the Raiders have hit the 'over' three times, and they have posted at least 24 points in each of the past three. The defense is surrendering 31.8 PPG in their four games away from home, giving up at least 24 points in each of those games. The Jets have looked like a functional offense in the past two weeks, posting 34 points in each game, two wins. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-1 in the past six. In the past four games at home New York is allowing an average of 26.3 PPG.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have picked up victories in their past two outings, both divisional games, and it's their surprising defense which has led the mini resurgence. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in the two-game winning streak while the defense has only coughed up just four field goals. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four overall for the Falcons, too, all against NFC opponents. For the Buccaneers, they're seventh in total yards (380.4) per game while posting 27.7 PPG to rank sixth in the NFL. They're allowing 371.8 total yards per game to rank 24th, and they're still dead-last in the NFL with 31.3 PPG. The Bucs have coughed up 27 or more points in eight straight games, and the 'over' has hit in each of those outings, the longest 'over' streak in the league so far this season. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Atlanta, too.

Detroit at Washington: The Lions declared QB Matthew Stafford (back) out for Sunday due to tiny fractures in his lower back, so QB Jeff Driskel makes another start. The offense didn't skip a beat last week in a 35-27 loss against the Cowboys at Ford Field, and they should be able to gain plenty of yards against a Redskins defense allowing 25.3 PPG, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The 'Skins allowed 34 to the Jets last week, and tied for their most points scored (17) since Week 2. It was their first 'over' results, snapping a 6-0 under run. The 'over' is actually 3-2 for the Redskins at home, with the defense yielding 31, 31, 33, 9 (in the mud and rain) and 34. We'll see if the Lions can add to their misery, and the conditions will be clear on Sunday.

Seattle at Philadelphia: The public has been pushing the total down in the Seattle-Philly battle on Sunday. Seattle plays its fourth out of five games in the Eastern Time Zone. The travel hasn't seemed to affect their offense, as they have scored 28, 32 and 27 in their previous three trips east, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. They have allowed 26, 28 and 20 in those games, too. Meanwhile, Philly had hit the 'under' in each of their past three home games after the 'over' cashed in the first two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defense has come to play in the past three at home, allowing just 6, 14 and 17, or an average of 12.3 PPG during the span. The Seahawks are listed as underdogs for the fourth time this season, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in those three games while the 'over' has connected in each of the outings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Jaguars were trampled on the road last week in Indy, falling 33-13 despite the fact they got QB Nick Foles back from injury. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five games against divisional foes for the Jags, but that lone over was last week. These teams met in Week 3 from Jacksonville, a 20-7 win by the Jags. However, there isn't much to glean from that matchup since the starting quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota are now the backups. Since taking over for Mariota, QB Ryan Tannehill has helped the Titans post 23, 27, 20 and 35, hitting the 'over' in all four games. The defense is allowing 26.3 PPG during the span, giving up 20, 23, 30 and 32. The 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in Nashville. The Titans are playing with rest and Mike Vrabel's team posted a 28-14 road win over Dallas last season off the bye, his first situation coaching with a break.

Dallas at New England: The Cowboys hit the road for Foxboro, and it's a big measuring stick game. Dallas is No. 1 in total offensive yards per game (444.6), passing yards per game (312.7) and fourth in points scored (28.6). As such, the over is 3-0 in the past three, and 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Cowboys. The Patriots defense ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (249.9) and points allowed (10.8). In their lone loss in Baltimore, they allowed 37 points on the road in Week 9. However, at home the Patriots have yielded 3, 14, 14 and 13, with the offense actually allowed 14 of those points on two defensive touchdowns by the Jets. The New England defense has really allowed just 7.5 PPG in four home games, so the Cowboys have their hands full. In three games against the NFC East, New England is allowing 10.3 PPG, hitting the 'under' in two of those outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are two games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 12, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 46 to 46 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Thursday Night system is just 6-4 (60%) so far. The team playing at home in the previous 10 TNF games has hit the 'over' in six over in their next game. The Browns were the home in 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call it, so they're next up to keep the TNF system going. The Dolphins find themselves in a familiar spot this season, a double-digit underdog. It's the seventh time they're an underdog of 10 or more points, and the 'under' is 5-1 in those six games. And after a 2-1 'over' start at FirstEnergy Stadium in the first three, the Browns have hit the 'under' in each of the past two.

Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The honeymoon is over with QB Kyle Allen...or it's actually not 'over', but 'under'. The Panthers offense is averaging just 9.5 PPG over the past two, and they have 13, 30, 16 and 3 across their 1-3 SU/ATS run in the past four games, hitting the under three times during the span. The Saints bounced back with 34 points in Tampa last week, hitting the 'over' for the second time in three NFC South games. The Saints defense ranks sixth in total yards allowed (318.3) and third in rushing yards allowed (85.3), while allowing 19.9 PPG to rank 12th in the NFL. At home, the 'under' is 3-2 in five games in the Superdome. As a double-digit favorite, the Saints have hit the 'under' in both outings. Make a note that Allen's first career start came at New Orleans last season in Week 17 and the Panthers captured a 33-14 road win.

Under the Lights

Green Bay at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Packers hit the road for Levi's Stadium, and the Pack hope their trip to the West Coast goes better than their last visit. They fell 26-11 in Week 10 againts the Chargers, and it would have been a season low had they not scored a late touchdown with a two-point conversion. It's a rarity that the Packers are underdogs. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in those two previous outings this season, with the over/under splitting 1-1. For the 49ers, they're allowing 20, 3, 13, 27 and 26 at home, with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three at home, and 4-0 in the past four overall. The defense has allowed 25 or more points in three straight, showing some chinks in the armor.

Baltimore at L.A. Rams (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Rams offense has struggled, posting a rather middling 366.5 total yards per game on offense to rank 13th, and they're 11th with 24.3 PPG scored. Defensively, they rank fifth in the NFL with just 89.1 rushing yards per game allowed, but it's a whole other animal trying to shut down QB Lamar Jackson. The Rams are underdogs for just the second time this season, and the 'over' cashed in that only previous outing. Los Angeles has had a power outage on offense lately, posting just 12 and 17 in the past two against the Steelers and Bears, whole allowing just 11 PPG across the past four. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for Los Angeles.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (14.09 ppg) since Sep 24, 2017 after a game in which they had zero turnovers.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-11.95 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 on the road coming off a win.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Packers are 7-0 ATS (8.07 ppg) since Jan 15, 2017 coming off a home game where Davante Adams had at least a 30 yard reception.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Broncos are 11-0-1 OU (11.88 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 as a road dog after a game in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-10 OU (-13.35 ppg) since Sep 20, 2012 off a game as a favorite that went over the total by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bears are 0-18 OU (-9.92 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a double-digit loss as a dog in which they scored ten-plus points fewer than their seasonto-date average and had less than 34 minutes of possession time.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Packers at 49ers
Matt Blunt

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It was nice to get back in the win column with the L.A. Rams covering the number against Chicago last Sunday night. It wasn't the prettiest of games by any means as neither offense really did much of anything in the 17-7 final, but ATS wins are ATS wins no matter how you get them.

This week the SNF team gets a potential NFC Championship preview-type game with Green Bay in San Francisco to take on the 49ers. You've got QB Aaron Rodgers back in his home state of California, and two teams who could end up with home field advantage through the playoffs based on winning this game.

With the stakes surrounding this game, there will likely be no shortage of opinions (or action) as the week goes on for such a big game, as both teams are likely to use it as a nice measuring stick type game for them as we head to December. But the question really is, can Green Bay go into San Francisco and knock off this 49ers team that's been spectacular at home.

San Fran owns a +77 point differential at home, largely in part to their 2nd ranked defense this year in both opponent yards allowed per game and opponent yards allowed per play. That's what Aaron Rodgers and company have to contend with, and given that the last time Green Bay was in California – two weeks ago vs LA Chargers – it was an utter debacle offensively, will history repeat? I mean, SF has highly talented pass rushers too and that was what led the Chargers to such much success that day.

Total Talk

After opening up at 45.5 late on Sunday, this total has really seen nothing but 'over' support since then. As of this writing, it's currently sitting at 47.5 juiced to the 'over', and given the profile of these two teams, it's easy to want to trust both offenses. Both teams currently sit in the Top 10 in the league – SF (2nd) and GB (9th) – in points per game with 29.5 and 25 respectively, that the opening total here was probably a touch too low. But all the value from that number has long been extracted, and the number has held pretty steady at 47.5 since Wednesday morning.

At 47.5, the number does appear to be about where it should be. Yes, the combined average point totals for these two teams puts this game close to 55 total points scored, but I would expect both sides to be looking to be strong defensively from the get-go. The stakes of the game lend themselves to that notion, as even though both teams would likely say they are fine with getting in a 34-31 type game, they wouldn't prefer it.

San Francisco's 4-0 O/U run coming into this game would suggest that 'over' is the way to look, especially with the defense allowing 25+ in three straight games. But the Packers come in off of two straight 'unders' themselves where the total score didn't eclipse 40 points can't be dismissed either. Put the entire situation of this game together, and passing on this total now appears to be the best course of action.

Side Spiel

San Francisco has been installed as the generic -3 home favorite for this game and that's where the number has stayed all week. The price has fluctuated on the 49ers, but I wouldn't expect this number to move much. That's because at -2.5 you are likely to see plenty of SF money hit the board, while at +3.5 there would likely be Green Bay money flooding in. Just another example of how important it is to bet numbers and bet teams. Yet, to me, this is a line that's much better to be approached from a spot betting perspective, and that spot does favor the Packers.

Actually, it's more of a spot that's against the 49ers in that fading a team after three straight division games is something that makes a lot of sense. Generally speaking, teams are going to naturally have a 'let down' after nearly a month of intense divisional action, but given that it is 8-2 SU Green Bay on the other side of the field, a complete flat effort from the 49ers isn't likely. But even just a bit flat early could have San Francisco chasing this game the entire way, and if that's the case, I'm not sure the 49ers will last.

This is essentially the fourth straight game where high stress/pressure are involved for the 49ers, and eventually every team needs a mental rest spot. There was the closer then expected game at Arizona on Halloween, followed by the OT loss to Seattle, and then last week's wild comeback against that same Cardinals team, with road games at Baltimore and at New Orleans on tap for the 49ers, there is going to be one of those 'dud' games for them in one of those three in my opinion, and teams do tend to be more complacent about things when at home. Whether it's physical or the mental prep side of things for the 49ers, that's not good for a team that's already spent the past three weeks struggling to hold on (or claim) outright victories.

At the same time, you know Rodgers would love to come 'home' to the Bay area and light up a 9-1 49ers team. San Francisco is part of the “new guard” in 2019 as it's their first time winning games in a few years, whereas the Packers have been perennial contenders the entire Rodgers era. This win probably means a bit more to Rodgers and company who want to prove they are just as good as the best, and home field advantage at Lambeau Field in January is always a huge edge.

I would figure that the Packers learned from their mistakes going to L.A. a few weeks ago (late travel time, bad sleep schedules, personal schedules etc) and be much better from the opening kickoff here. Obviously a later start helps that play out, and if they can keep San Fran's pass rushers in check with a serviceable running attack, it's not like Rodgers isn't capable of tearing apart this 49ers secondary.

Final Thoughts

A 0-2-1 ATS record combined with all 'overs' in those games for the 49ers coming into this week is a sign to me that they are a team that's playing with too much fire right now. Defensively they are getting hurt, offensively they are letting teams hang around, and they are just making more mistakes overall right now then they were earlier in the year. It didn't cost them wins in those two games vs Arizona and a rookie head coach/rookie QB combo, but it will probably cost them a win this week vs a rookie head coach/Hall-of-Fame QB.

Green Bay is in just as tight a divisional race themselves as the 49ers are in the NFC West, and given how the perception around the Packers 8-2 SU record still has an aura of being rather 'lucky' – they were gifted calls vs Detroit on MNF, Oakland coughed up what was a close game with GB at half, they caught KC without Mahomes, McCaffrey might have been in the end zone last week etc etc – they've arguably got more to prove with a win here.

I believe the Packers get that win here, and extend their 5-0 ATS run against winning teams to six straight covers.

Best Bet: Green Bay +3

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


HACKY SACK

The New York Giants and the Chicago Bears have been allowing 8.4 sacks combined over the last three weeks. However, both these teams have struggled to take down opposing QBs this year as they sit in the bottom half in the league in sacks per game at nearly five takedowns combined. This last stat may give us some value in a total-sacks prop that won’t be set too high thanks to the Bears’ and Giants’ sacks per game rate.

Daniel Jones has been sacked 22 times in his last four games because the Giants have been pass-happy of late, averaging 39 passes a game since Week seven. Mitch Trubisky will have a short leash that could work in our favor. The Bears QB has been sacked nine times in his last two home games and if Mitch gives way to Chase Daniel, that could be money in the bank. The Bears’ backup was sacked twice in four dropbacks last week while getting taken down four more times in 30 pass attempts in his only other start this year.

We are 6-1 on our weekly sack plays and will be taking the Over 5.5 sacks in the Giants-Bears matchup Sunday.


SKIPPING LEG DAY

Bears’ kicker Eddy Pineiro has zero trust from his coaching staff as Matt Nagy decided to go for it on 4th and nine from their opponents 31-yard line in a 0-0 game. Over their last three games, Nagy’s Bears have attempted just 0.7 FGs.

The Giants are dead last in field goal attempts this season and are kicking a whopping one three-point attempt per game. New York’s kicker Aldrick Rosas is 8-for-10 this year with a long of just thirty-six yards.

Chicago will be breezy Sunday with winds expected in the double digits, further helping our lean on this kicking prop. Take the Under 44.5 yards longest field goal scored.


DRISKEL DRUMMING UP RUSHES

Jeff Driskel will start again for the Lions Sunday against Washington as Matthew Stafford may have to sit out the rest of the season with Detroit out of playoff contention. The word on Driskel’s rushing ability is not widely known yet but the Lions’ starter rushed for 51 yards on eight carries and had a rushing TD for good measure last week.

Driskel is not afraid to take off and run as the 26-year-old QB has averaged 4.5 carries over his seven career starts. The Washington is allowing a completion rate of 71 percent which may stop Driskel from taking off as much but we still like his rushing prospects for Sunday and will take the Over on any number below 23 yards.


TAKE THESE BROKEN WENTZ

The Philadelphia Eagles receiving core is a mess. Last week they gave 88 percent of the snaps to Jordan Mathews who had just signed two weeks ago and now Nelson Agholor appears questionable for Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks.

They could have Alshon Jeffrey back this week, but this is a run-first offense and with Jordan Howard likely back this week after missing Week 11, we don’t see Carson Wentz and the offense airing things out against Seattle. The Eagles are 24th in the league in passing yards per game at 215 and 28th over their last three games at 185 yards.

We are jumping on the Under 241.5 passing yards for Carson Wentz, a number he has not eclipsed in four-straight games.


HOME FAVS LEADING THE WAY

Over the last 30 days, home favorites have been winning SU at 73 percent clip and last week they hit at 78 percent. This week, home teams are favored in nine of the 13 games. Our two favorite home favorite MLs this week are the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots. Parlayed together, this two-teamer pays out an even +100.

New England has won 16-straight games at home and is allowing just 11 points per game at Gillette stadium this year. The offense hasn’t looked great, but this is a defense-first team that could give the Cowboys some problems as they have only beat the Redskins, the Giants and the Lions on the road this year while losing to the Jets and Saints.

Atlanta has run off two consecutive wins versus divisional opponents and picked off Kyle Allen four times last week. They also haven’t allowed a touchdown in 10 quarters of football. They could really force Bruce Arians to sit Jameis Winston if the Dirty Birds get to the Bucs’ QB early.

Take the Pats ML and Falcons ML for a +100 payout.

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


ALVIN & BOMBS

Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley had his best game as a pro last week. The Falcons’ wideout caught all eight of his targets for 143 yards for six first downs, giving Matt Ryan a 158.3 passing rating when targeted. This was all against the league’s sixth-best pass DVOA defense. This week, Ridley sets his sights on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 30th-ranked pass defense.

With tight end Austin Hooper out again this week and the Falcons down to their No.3 running back who carried 15 times for 30 yards against a bottom-five run defense in Week 11, there is no reason to think Ridley can’t top his yardage totals this week.

We are taking the Over on Ridley’s receiving yards at 68.5 as Tampa Bay is giving up 73 yards to teams’ WR2 this year.


PASS ME A BALL, MR. JONES

Covers’ own Jason Logan is backing the Giants as 6-point underdogs against the Chicago Bears this week. We can get behind that as the Chicago offense is nonexistent and six points is a lot for a unit that has topped 21 points once since Week 4. That doesn’t mean that Daniel Jones has to succeed by any means, though.

The Giants QB has faced four bottom-12 pass defenses in consecutive weeks and will do battle with Chicago's No.6 squad on Sunday. Jones has faced just two top-15 pass defenses this year and didn’t top 200 yards passing in either of them. It also may be difficult for Jones to throw the ball when he is turning it over at such an alarming rate. The rookie may only have two interceptions since Week 7, but he has fumbled ten times in his last four games and leads the league in that category this year.

Adding injury to insult, Jones won’t have the services of his top-two tight ends while Sterling Shepard suiting up could affect the QB’s chemistry with slot receiver Golden Tate and Darius Slayton.

We are grabbing the Under 226.5 passing yards on Daniel Jones but also think there is good value in his Under 0.5 INTs at +170, just don’t bet on him not fumbling.


THE DRIVE FOR 0-16

The Cincinnati Bengals’ team total for their Sunday game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and their No.3 DVOA defense sits at a laughable 14.5 points. The sad thing is that we don’t see Ryan Finley and his banged-up receiving core scoring more than two TDs against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have allowed no more than 14 points in their three games this year to bottom-10 DVOA offenses. One of those teams was the Bengals who put up three points in Week 4. On top of that, Cincy could be facing a team with serious motivation after last week’s drama.

The road to 0-16 will continue into Week 13 as even Mason Rudolph will be able to move the ball against a team allowing over 10 yards per pass attempt in their last three weeks. Take the Bengals team total 14.5 before it slips past a key number closer to kick off.


SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN

Checking the rotowire one can’t help but notice all the San Francisco 49ers’ skill players popping up. For those not constantly refreshing team updates, TE George Kittle, WRs Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders, RB Matt Breida and kicker Robbie Gould are all doubtful or questionable ahead of their big Sunday night tilt versus the Packers.

We see the 49ers trying to establish the run and control the clock with all the injuries, something they do well as they sit second in the league at nearly 34 minutes in time of possession. Green Bay should also play to their strength and their opponent’s weakness and run the ball. The Packers are currently gaining 5.1 yards per rush attempt over their last three while San Fran has the fifth-worst yards per rush attempt against at 5.3 yards.

With the possibility of key offensive players sitting out and both teams looking to control the clock, we are hitting the San Fran team total Under 26.5 which we feel is 2-3 points too high.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 12
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Seahawks at Eagles (-1, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Only two teams in the NFL have yet to lose a road game this season and both hail from the NFC West. One is San Francisco, who plays Green Bay in a crucial NFC showdown on Sunday night. The other handed the 49ers their first loss of the season back in a Week 10 overtime thriller at Levi’s Stadium. The Seahawks (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) outlasted the Niners two weeks ago to improve to 5-0 away from CenturyLink Field, while coming off the bye last week. Seattle has lived on the edge all season by winning seven games by seven points or less, including the last two against San Francisco and Tampa Bay in overtime.

Seattle travels to the Eastern Time Zone for the fourth time this season (3-0) to face Philadelphia as the Eagles (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) try to rebound from a 17-10 home defeat to New England. The Eagles suffered their first home loss since Week 3 against the Lions as Philadelphia limited New England to three field goals before allowing the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter. Philadelphia’s defense has performed well of late by yielding 44 points in the past three games since getting torched by Dallas for 37 points in a Week 7 blowout loss.

Although Seattle is an extremely short underdog, the Seahawks have covered nine consecutive times when receiving points dating back to last season. Seattle has had its way with Philadelphia in the last few meetings by posting a 4-0 SU/ATS record since 2011. The Seahawks topped the Eagles, 24-10 as 3 ½-point home underdogs in the most recent matchup in 2017.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Seahawks 17

Raiders (-3, 46) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST
This matchup on paper doesn’t look too thrilling, but both these AFC squads have caught fire of late. Oakland (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) heads east after sweeping a three-game homestand against Detroit, Los Angeles, and Cincinnati. The Raiders have gone from hoping to finish around .500 to being a serious threat to qualify for the postseason. Although Oakland failed to cash as hefty 13-point favorites last week against winless Cincinnati, the Raiders managed a 17-10 triumph as they allowed their fewest points in a game this season.

The Jets (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) have risen from the ashes to capture back-to-back wins over the Giants and Redskins and although that may not be impressive, New York is trying to salvage its season. Quarterback Sam Darnold threw four touchdown passes in last Sunday’s 34-17 rout of the Redskins to help the Jets win their third game against an NFC East foe. Now, New York has to mix in some wins against its own conference, as the Jets have sailed OVER the total in five of six games since last season as a home underdog when Darnold starts.

The Raiders are listed as a road favorite for the first time since a 34-3 drubbing at the hands of the 49ers last season. Since Jon Gruden came back to the Raiders’ sidelines last season, the Silver and Black has struggled on the road off a win by going 0-5 in this situation. The Jets have dropped the last two meetings with the Raiders in 2015 and 2017 (both in Oakland), while New York grabbed an opening week victory in the last matchup at Met Life Stadium in 2014.

Best Bet: Raiders 24, Jets 21

Cowboys at Patriots (-6, 45 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
A pair of first-place teams hook up in the showcase afternoon battle in the NFL at Gillette Stadium. Dallas (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) is listed as an underdog for the first time this season as the Cowboys held off the Lions, 35-27 to barely cash as 7 ½-point road favorites. The Cowboys improved to 6-0 this season when scoring at least 31 points, led by Dak Prescott’s 444 yards passing and three touchdown tosses. Dallas is still looking to beat a team with a winning record as all six victories have come against teams entering this week at .500 or below.

The Patriots (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from their first loss of the season against the Ravens by holding off the Eagles last week, 17-10 as 4 ½-point road favorites. For the ninth time this season, New England held an opponent to less than 14 points and won in spite of no touchdown passes from Tom Brady for the third time this season. Brady also threw for his second-fewest yards this season (216), but the Patriots are riding a seven-game winning streak against NFC opponents since getting tripped up Detroit last September.

Dallas has cashed the OVER in five of the past six games, while seeking its first victory when scoring less than 30 points (0-4). The Cowboys went 6-2 ATS last season in the underdog role, while facing New England for the first time since a 30-6 home defeat to the Patriots as eight-point underdogs in 2015.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Cowboys 17

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 40 – Giants at Bears

Both these teams are struggling at the moment as New York has lost six consecutive games, while Chicago is 1-5 in its past six contests. The Giants’ defense has been torched of late by allowing 27 points or more in each of the previous six games, while hitting the OVER in three straight. The Bears’ offense may not be great, but this can be their opportunity to finally bust out as Chicago has gone 4-1 to the UNDER at Soldier Field. Even though the scoring numbers may not reflect it, the Bears have been outgained from a yardage standpoint in five of the last six games.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Saints rebounded from an ugly loss to the Falcons two weeks ago by cruising past the Buccaneers last Sunday, 34-17. The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas releases early lines about 12 days ahead of time and put out New Orleans -7 against Carolina on November 12. That number has jumped to 9 ½ after the Panthers were blown out by the Falcons at home last week. New Orleans has covered the spread in each of its last seven victories, while Carolina has lost each of its past two road contests at San Francisco and Green Bay.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bills own a 7-3 record, while the Broncos head to western New York with a 3-7 mark. Yet, Buffalo enters Sunday’s contest as a four-point favorite even though the Bills have not lost a game to a team with a losing record this season. The Broncos squandered a 20-0 lead in last week’s 27-23 defeat to the Vikings, but Denver cashed as 10-point underdogs. Denver improved to 5-1 ATS the last six games, including three consecutive covers on the road.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Lions haven’t won only one game since a 2-0-1 start as Detroit is listed as a short road favorite at Washington. The only positive for the Lions (besides facing a 1-9 team) is they have fared well the last few seasons in the game prior to Thanksgiving. Detroit has won four consecutive games before taking the gridiron at Ford Field for its annual Turkey Day matchup, as the Lions face the Bears this Thursday.