Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Browns beat Steelers, 'under' cashes
November 14, 2019

CLEVELAND (AP) The Cleveland Browns kept fighting long after the outcome had been decided, and it likely will cost them their best defensive player.

And maybe their season.

Browns defensive end Myles Garrett ripped off Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph's helmet and hit him with it in the head in the final seconds as the Browns' 21-7 win over the Steelers on Thursday night ended with a wild brawl between the rivals.

Garrett faces a likely suspension for his actions, and Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey will likely be disciplined for kicking Garrett in the head.

''I lost my cool and I regret it,'' Garrett said. ''It's going to come back to hurt our team. The guys who jumped into the scrum, I appreciate my team having my back, but it never should have gotten to that point. It's on me.''

Players from both sidelines spilled on the field during the melee, which began after Garrett wrestled Rudolph to the ground well after he completed a short pass on a meaningless play. Garrett, Pouncey and Browns defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi were ejected.

Rudolph got his hand on Garrett's helmet first as the players grappled on the ground, but Garrett escalated the brawl after he got back on his feet. He yanked the helmet off Rudolph and swung wildly, hitting the quarterback on the top of the head.

Rudolph threw his arms in the air in disbelief after the impact, and Pouncey retaliated by punching and kicking Garrett.

''I thought it was pretty cowardly and bush league,'' Rudolph said. ''I'm not going to back down from any bully. I felt like I had a bone to pick with him. I appreciate the line always having my back, but I was angry.''

Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield called Garrett's actions ''inexcusable'' and Fox commentator Troy Aikman said they were ''barbaric.''

Mayfield said the incident overshadowed a win that the Browns should be celebrating.

''It feels like we lost,'' he said.

Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr. was shown replays of the brawl on the NFL Network set.

''It's ugly,'' Beckham said. ''It's not something we want in the NFL.''

Rudolph, a second-year player who took over for the injured Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2, has already missed time this season with a concussion after he was knocked unconscious from a helmet-to-helmet hit by Baltimore Ravens safety Earl Thomas.

''Myles is very upset about it. He's got to maintain his composure,'' Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said.

Before the ugly ending, Mayfield threw two touchdown passes and scored on a 1-yard plunge as Cleveland held on to defeat the banged-up Steelers for just the fourth time in 10 years and improved to 2-0 in the AFC North for the first time.

The Browns (4-6) have won two in a row after dropping four straight, a skid that put first-year coach Freddie Kitchens' job in jeopardy.

But Mayfield's 8-yard TD pass to undrafted rookie tight end Stephen Carlson with 5:25 left helped clinch a rare win over the rival Steelers. And softer upcoming schedule has eased the pressure on Kitchens and given the Browns some hope they can end the NFL's longest playoff drought.

The loss was especially damaging to the Steelers (5-5).

Pittsburgh lost its top two playmakers as running back James Conner (shoulder) and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) suffered injuries in the second quarter and didn't return.

Without them, Rudolph didn't have enough help and threw four interceptions.

In the third quarter, Steelers rookie wide receiver Diontae Johnson got concussed from a vicious hit by Browns safety Damarious Randall, who was ejected.

Browns running back Nick Chubb had 92 yards and went over 1,000 this season.

Despite the injuries, the Steelers were within 14-7 entering the fourth quarter after Rudolph connected with Jaylen Samuels for a 3-yard touchdown pass.

The score was set up by Cleveland's secondary, which was called for three penalties - one of them Randall's ugly hit - totaling 58 yards on the scoring drive.

But the Browns were able to put it away late after linebacker Joe Schobert intercepted Rudolph for the second time and returned it to Pittsburgh's 9. On third down, Mayfield bought time and connected with Carlson in the back of the end zone - his first NFL reception.

The Browns have been wrapped up in drama all season, and that was the case again Thursday as the team released wide receiver Antonio Callaway just hours before kickoff.

Callaway, who served a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy earlier this season, was benched by Kitchens for arriving late to Sunday's game against Buffalo.

KAEPERNICK WORKOUT

The Browns are one of 11 teams committed to attending former quarterback Colin Kaepernick's workout in Atlanta this weekend.

Owner Dee Haslam said didn't know who from the team would be at the workout to evaluate Kaepernick, who hasn't played since 2016 and became a polarizing figure when he kneeled during the national anthem to protest social and racial injustice.

''We are in support of anybody getting an opportunity to play football,'' Haslam said. ''We love that.''

INJURIES

Steelers: Along with the others, Pittsburgh lost LB Olasunkanmi Adeniyi (concussion) and CB Artie Burns (knee).

Browns: Safety Morgan Burnett sustained an Achilles injury in the first half and didn't return.

WATT'S UP

Steelers LB T.J. Watt took down Mayfield in the third quarter, giving him eight sacks in five career contests against the Browns. Watt has at least one-half sack in seven straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

UP NEXT

Steelers: Visit winless Cincinnati on Nov. 24.

Browns: Host Miami on Nov. 24.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Five most experienced college hoop teams this season:

6) Hofstra

5) New Mexico State

4) Louisiana-Monroe

3) Seattle

2) Iona

1) South Alabama

Quote of the Day
“It’s almost impossible to win when you can’t count on getting three stops in a row at some point.”
Steve Kerr

Friday’s quiz
Where did Steelers QB Mason Rudolph play his college football?

Thursday’s quiz
Butch Davis was the Cleveland Browns’ coach last time they made the playoffs, in 2002.

Wednesday’s quiz
John Calipari has led UMass, Memphis, Kentucky to a Final Four.

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Friday’s List 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) So far this season, NBA road teams who played the night before are 17-9-1 ATS.

NBA teams playing the first of back/back nights are 19-24 ATS, the second night 22-17-3.

If the Clippers are playing back/back, find out which night Kawhi Leonard is playing, then go against them in the other game.

12) Browns 21, Steelers 7— Pittsburgh has had two games this year with no takeaways; they lost those games 33-3/21-7. They forced 25 turnovers in their other eight games.

An actual brawl broke out in this game with 0:08 left; Cleveland’s DE Myles Garrett hit Mason Rudolph with his own helmet, after he ripped it off the Pitt QB’s head. Then Steeler C Pouncey was punching/kicking Garrett in retaliation. Suspensions will result.

These teams play again in Week 13; that should be fun.

11) Michigan State 76, Seton Hall 73— This seemed like a March game; Myles Powell scored 37 for the Pirates. Unusual game; only two players on each team scored in double figures.

10) Penn State 81, Georgetown 66— Nittany Lions ran out to a 25-7 lead, made 13-29 on arc, and had an easy win here. Penn State shot better outside the arc than inside it.

9) LA Chargers are practicing in Colorado Springs for a few days, to help get them ready for the high altitude they’re going to experience Monday night in Mexico City.

Charger players didn’t seem too excited about it; Rams did this LY, but then that game was pulled out of Mexico and moved to the LA Coliseum because the field in Mexico was deemed unsafe to play on.

8) Baseball stuff:
— Atlanta Braves signed closer Will Smith to a 3-year deal worth $39M.
— Jake Odorizzi accepted a $17.8M qualifying offer from the Twins.
— Jose Abreu accepted a $17.8M qualifying offer from the White Sox.

7) Memphis Tigers’ freshman C James Wiseman has been ruled ineligible, probably won’t be playing in college anymore. He is expected to go very high in next June’s NBA Draft.

6) Ohio U has an interesting basketball team; they played eight guys in wins at St Bonaventure, Iona; six freshmen, two seniors. That only happens when you have a new coach.

Bobcats are the #335 experience team right now; their bench is playing minutes #347, but they’ve made 44.7% of their 3’s and they have two road wins. Good for them.

5) Only 2 of 12 Pac-12 teams (Oregon State/Wazzu) have lost out of conference- Colorado beat Arizona State over in China; the league is 23-2 SU out of conference. Still too early to tell, but is the Pac-12 having a resurgence?

4) Saint Mary’s gets a quality win on a neutral court over Wisconsin, then loses at home to Winthrop, negating the quality win. Not good.

3) Few years down the road, when Pete Alonso strikes it rich with his first huge contract, hope the Mets remember how they’re using his name to squeeze every last dollar out of their fanbase. In 2020, Alonso’s 2nd season, they’re having two Alonso bobblehead days:

March 28th – Rookie of Year bobblehead
June 20th – Custom Marvel Superhero bobblehead

2) San Francisco Giants hired Gabe Kapler as manager, a sign that they’re becoming more analytics-based. Thank the Lord I don’t have any Giants on my fantasy team; I had five Phillies on my team when Kapler took over there.

Lets just say it didn’t go well for those five guys, or me.

1) Golden State Warriors are 2-10 and headed towards the lottery; next year they’ll have Steph Curry and Klay Thompson back, plus a lottery pick, and they’ll be contenders again. Going to be a long winter for Steve Kerr, but it’ll pay off down the road.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack

Five least experienced college hoop teams this season:

6) South Carolina-Upstate

5) Virginia Tech

4) Central Connecticut

3) Incarnate Word

2) Utah

1) Memphis

Quote of the Day
“The Browns won the game, but it’s kind of what’s been biting them in the backside throughout this year and throughout the last few years is just lack of self-control and discipline. This to me, this comes back to coaching. This falls squarely right on the head coach because the head coach talks to every assistant coach, who then talks to their group of players. There’s an old saying in coaching, ‘You’re either coaching it or you’re allowing it to happen.'”
Todd Haley

Saturday’s quiz
Who was coach of the Cleveland Browns at the start of the 2018 season?

Friday’s quiz
Steelers QB Mason Rudolph played his college football at Oklahoma State.

Thursday’s quiz
Butch Davis was the Cleveland Browns’ coach last time they made the playoffs, in 2002.

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Saturday’s List of 13: Clearing out cluttered mind……

13) Browns’ DE Myles Garrett was suspended indefinitely (minimum of 6 games) by the NFL after the fracas at the end of the Browns’ game with Pittsburgh Thursday night.

Cleveland DT Larry Ogunjobi was also suspended for a game; Pittsburgh’s center Maurkice Pouncey was suspended for three games.

12) Shaky programming move by ESPN, putting the UNC-Pitt game on Thursday night, same time the Steelers were playing. Wednesday or Friday would’ve worked better.

11) Pittsburgh Pirates hired former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington as their new GM, then fired assistant GM Kyle Stark. Cherington was GM in Boston when they won the 2013 World Series, but got the boot two years later- they’re not real patient in Boston.

Cherington’s first job is probably to hire a manager, seeing how the Pirates don’t have one yet after they fired Clint Hurdle.

10) West Virginia 68, Pittsburgh 53— ESPNU’s analyst for this game was Chris Spatola, who is Mike Krzyzewski’s son-in-law. Pitt is coached by former Dukie Jeff Capel; they did couple of segments during the game where they showed Pitt’s new locker room, it was like a Pitt Panther infomercial, geared towards recruits.

Meanwhile, West Virginia has a big kid named Oscar Tshiebwe who dominated the game inside, with 20 points, 17 rebounds in his second college game. Mountaineers have won four in a row over Pitt for first time since 1977.

9) Rhode Island 93, Alabama 79— Solid win for the A-14, with URI forcing 22 turnovers (+10).

8) Gonzaga 79, Texas A&M 49— Zags are this generation’s version of the Jerry Tarkanian UNLV teams; a national power that dominates a mid-major league in January-February, and uses pre-conference play to test itself in games like this. Aggies shot 30.4% from floor in this game.

7) NFL stuff:
— Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford (back) is out again this week.
— Vikings’ WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) is out again this week.
— Eagles put RB Darren Sproles on IR, ending his season.

6) NBA stuff:
— Nets’ F Caris LeVert (thumb) will likely miss 4-6 weeks.
— Hawks’ F Kevin Huerter (shoulder) is out two weeks.

5) A few over/under numbers for CONFERENCE wins in college hoop:
— Colorado 11.5
— Duke 15
— Gonzaga 14
— UNLV 9
— Utah State 14
— Villanova 11.5

4) California Golden Bears QB Chase Garbers has been cleared to return and will start in Saturday’s home game vs. USC.

3) James Holzhauer, who won $2.46M during a 32-game winning streak on Jeopardy! last spring, won the show’s Tournament of Champions during Friday’s episode, taking the $250,000 first prize.

2) Duquesne 58, Lipscomb 36— These teams combined to make 1 of 40 3-pointers.

Let me repeat that; these teams took 40 3-pointers, and made ONE!!! No bueno.

1) Celtics 105, Warriors 100— Golden State played its heart out, but lost their 6th game in a row and is now 2-11 in this lost season.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Josh Inglis


GOING DEEP

The Oakland Raiders lost free safety Karl Joseph last week and are now without both their starting safeties for Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Replacing Joseph will be D.J. Swearinger who was released by the Cardinals earlier this year and has a pathetic PFF rating of 45. Swearinger’s addition won't help a Raiders’ secondary that is allowing the second-most yards per completion at 12.3.

The only team allowing more yards per completion is the Bengals. For the year, Cincy is getting torched for 13.3 yards per completion, but things have been even worse of late as they are giving up 17.2 yards per completion over their last three games.

All of this adds up to long touchdowns, something both teams are familiar with in their last four games. The Raiders have scored three TDs of 42 yards or longer and have given up two since Week 7. The Bengals have found many ways to have long touchdowns in their recent matches, including a 56-yard pick-six, a 65-yard passing TD against, a 47-yard TD run against and a 92-yard kickoff return.

We are banging the Over on the longest touchdown scored at 41.5 yards.


HAPPY FEET

Matthew Stafford will miss another game while backup Jeff Driskel takes over for a second week as the Lions host the Cowboys. Driskel threw 46 passes for 269 yards against the Chicago Bears' defense last week in a 20-13 loss. One thing that stood out was Driskel’s athleticism as he also rushed for 37 yards on six carries with a long of 11.

Last year in five starts with the Bengals, the former 2016 sixth-round pick averaged nearly four rushes a game at over four yards per attempt. The Lions QB will take on a Dallas defense that has allowed 71 rushing yards on 11 attempts to opposing QBs over the last three weeks.

This may be a hard prop bet to find but could be more available closer to kick off. Take Driskel’s Over rushing total on any number less than 20 yards.


SWEET SPOT FOR SANDERS

The Philadelphia Eagles just signed Jay Ajayi off the street which shows how depleted their running back depth is of late. Jordan Howard has not been cleared for contact with a stinger and Darren Sproles is done for the season with a hip injury. This leaves Miles Sanders as the top back in an offense that is leading the league in rushing attempts over the last three weeks.

Ove the last two weeks, Howard had out-snapped Sanders 96 to 49 and outgained the rookie 178 on 4.2 ypc to 116 on 8.92 ypc. Likely with the keys to the offense in week 11 and with the Eagles facing the Patriots’ 12th-ranked DVOA rush defense, Sanders could be the focal point of an offense who will also be without receiver Alshon Jeffery.

Considering Sanders has also averaged three catches for 43 yards since Week 7, we're going to look at Sanders’ total yards and hit the Over on any total below 98 yards. This is another prop that will be more available closer to kick off once Howard's availibility is known.


SHOOTOUT DOWN SOUTH

News that Panthers cornerback Ross Cockrell is out for Week 11 while CBs James Bradberry and Donte Jackson are nicked up as well, has us thinking that Sunday's game between Carolina and Atlanta has shootout potential. The Panthers’ pass defense (3rd DVOA) has been rock solid but they have been getting mugged by the run (32nd DVOA). These injuries in the secondary do not come at an ideal time as they will face a heavy dose of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with RB Devonte Freeman missing the tilt.

Kyle Allen and the offense have had to push the ball in their possessions lately as their defense has been getting beat up, allowing over 400 yards since Week 8. They put up over 400 yards of offense themselves last week versus Green Bay's 19th ranked DVOA defense. This week they get to light up Atlanta’s 30th-ranked DVOA defense at home where Carolina is averaging 26.2 ppg.

With the Falcons forced to pass against a great passing defense that will be missing some key pieces, we love the Over 49.


BEST VS. THE WORST

These are the No.1 matchups for receivers versus defenses per Football Outsiders.

WR Terry McLaurin vs New York Jets: The Jets secondary is giving up the most yards to opposing WR1s at 91.5 yards per game. They have also allowed five TDs over the last three games to team's top receivers.

Week 11 will really put fading the worst to the test as Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins is averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt which would put him in 31st amongst quarterbacks. Tread carefully with McLaurin’s 59.5 receiving yard total, a number he hasn’t topped in three weeks

TE Jared Cook vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fresh off a 10-target, six-catch 74-yard performance last week, Jared Cook faces the Bucs who are allowing 84 yards to opposing tight ends this year. Cook went 4-41-1 versus the Bucs in Week 5, playing in 60 percent of the snaps but saw his snap count increase to 71 percent last week. Look for the Saints TE to surpass his total of 40.5 receiving yards in a game that has the third-highest total of the week.

RB Ezekiel Elliott vs Detroit Lions: Zeke could have a big day through the air versus a Detroit Lions defense that is giving up 55.3 yards receiving to opposing RBs. The Dallas running back has only been targeted three times in the last two weeks but averaged nearly six targets a game from Week 4 through 7. Take the Over on any total below 20 yards.


FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.


HEATING UP EARLY

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.


LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.


LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.


AIN'T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his second straight game when Detroit hosts Dallas on Sunday. The Lions would've been 3-point underdogs with Stafford, but are 7-point pups without him.

NFL Week 11 won’t include the top quarterback for the Motor City franchise, though at least this week, sportsbooks and bettors aren’t in the dark about that fact. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact

DETROIT LIONS: Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his second straight game, meaning Jeff Driskel gets the nod at quarterback when the Lions host the Cowboys. “We put up Cowboys -6.5. If Stafford was playing, it would be Cowboys -3.” Detroit stretched to a 7-point underdog Friday afternoon, with a total of 47.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Nick Foles will return at Indianapolis, after missing eight games with a broken collarbone suffered in Week 1. “Foles moves the line a little bit,” Osterman said of a number at Jags +2.5 (even) on Friday afternoon. “That game would be Jaguars +3 or +3 (even) with Gardner Minshew.”

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Likewise, No. 1 QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) returns after missing last week’s 16-12 loss to Miami, in which Brian Hoyer threw three interceptions. “Oh yeah, Brissett is worth a couple of points over Hoyer. If Foles was playing against Hoyer, this game would be Colts -1 or -1.5.” Instead, with Foles facing Brissett, it’s Colts -2.5 (-120), with a total of 43.5.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Wideout Adam Thielen (hamstring) will miss his second straight game and third in four weeks when the Vikes play host to Denver. “That was expected. He’s worth about a half-point.” Minnesota is a 10-point favorite, with a total of 40.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Running back Jordan Howard (shoulder) is questionable for a big game against New England, with Philly a 3.5-point home pup. “If he’s ruled out, I wouldn’t expect the line to go to 4 just from that. The Eagles have plenty of backs.” That said, The SuperBook moved to Eagles +4 Friday afternoon, with a total of 45.

CHICAGO BEARS: Running back David Montgomery (ankle) is a game-time decision at the Los Angeles Rams. “Montgomery is worth a half-point, but I wouldn’t expect it to move from +6.5 to +7. Probably +6.5 (even).”

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Wideouts Emanuel Sanders (ribs) and Dante Pettis (back) are questionable for a home tilt against Arizona. “That’s part of the reason that line has come down so much. Both of them out and Greg Kittle out accounts for 1.5 to 2 points,” Osterman said, alluding to the tight end likely out a second straight game with knee/ankle issues.
Weather Watch

KANSAS CITY VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: There’s more to this than just weather, as altitude could be an issue in a game set for Monday night at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, at an elevation of 7,300 feet – 2,000 feet higher than AFC West outpost Denver. Rain this weekend might hamper a field that last year was in such poor condition that the Chiefs-Rams game was moved from there to Los Angeles.

“The altitude doesn’t really affect the line, because it affects both teams equally,” Osterman said. “But if there is rain, there would be concern about the field, given the past history. So I would expect the total to come down if there’s rain.” That said, the best chance for rain was Friday night. The total opened at 49.5 and reached 52 Thursday.

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE: It could be a little chilly for the Texans’ taste, in the mid-40s, but the line and the total – currently Ravens -4 and 51.5 – won’t change on that information. “No effect on the Ravens game.”

NEW ENGLAND AT PHILADELPHIA: This is a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, and rain is expected Sunday night in Philly. “The total has come down 1 point on that game. The rain definitely has something to do with that.” The total was at 45 Friday afternoon.
Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT MINNESOTA: “The line has gone from Vikings -10.5 to -10, but most public money is on the Vikings.”

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: “We’re seeing some public money on the Niners, but most of the money has been sharp play on the Cardinals.” The 49ers opened -13.5 and dropped to -10 by Thursday.

NEW YORK JETS AT WASHINGTON: This is actually Pros joining Joes, but I’m dropping it in here because it’s an interesting note for an otherwise dull matchup. “A lot of Redskins money from sharps, and some public money. We’re going to need the Jets the most among the early games.” The game opened pick and moved to Redskins -2.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 11
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Texans at Ravens (-4 ½, 51 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
A pair of first place AFC squads hook up in Baltimore as the Texans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) return from their bye week. Prior to its bye, Houston crushed Jacksonville in London, 26-3 to pull off the season sweep of the Jaguars, while holding its first opponent to single-digits in points this season. The Texans are seeking their first three-game winning streak of the season, while already knocking off the Chiefs and Chargers as a road underdog.

The Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) are fresh off their fifth consecutive victory after routing the winless Bengals, 49-13 as 10 ½-point road favorites. Quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for three touchdowns and ran for another one on an electrifying 47-yard scamper to give Baltimore its third straight cover following a 1-5 ATS start. The Ravens have failed to cover in three opportunities as a home favorite this season, while last cashing in this role in Week 12 last season against the Raiders.

These teams hooked up in Baltimore two seasons ago as the Ravens held off the Texans, 23-16 as 7 ½-point favorites. Obviously Jackson wasn’t on the roster, as Joe Flacco started for Baltimore opposite not Deshaun Watson, but Tom Savage got the start for the Texans. Houston has played five games at M&T Bank Stadium since its expansion year in 2002 and have never beaten Baltimore once on the road.

Best Bet: Ravens 27, Texans 24

Jaguars at Colts (-2 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST
Nick Foles inked a four-year, $88 million deal with Jacksonville in the offseason, but the former Super Bowl MVP hasn’t played a full game yet for the Jaguars (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS). Foles sustained a broken collarbone in the first half of the season opening loss at Kansas City as rookie Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback. Minshew had some highlights as Jacksonville went 4-4 in games started by the former Washington State standout, but Foles is back in the lineup for Sunday. The Jags have not defeated a team with a winning record, but Jacksonville has cashed in three of four road games this season.

The Colts (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) welcome back their starting quarterback after Brian Hoyer was in for the injured Jacoby Brissett in last Sunday’s shocking 16-12 defeat to the Dolphins as 11-point home favorites. Brissett was dealing with a sprained knee suffered in the loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but he is ready to return for a Colts’ team who are 0-3 ATS the last three games. The Colts are coming off an ‘under’ against Miami, as Indianapolis has not hit two consecutive ‘unders’ this season.

Jacksonville has covered seven of the past eight meetings with Indianapolis, as the two matchups in 2018 were decided by a total of nine points. The Colts are 4-1 in the previous five affairs with the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium, including picking up a 29-26 triumph last season.

Best Bet: Jaguars 20, Colts 17

Patriots (-4 ½, 44 ½) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST
These teams hook up for the first time since the epic Super Bowl LII two seasons ago won by the Eagles, 41-33 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Philadelphia (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) enters this rematch on a two-game winning streak after defeating Buffalo and Chicago in the past two contests, while fresh off the bye week. The Eagles have yet to win three consecutive games this season, as they enter Sunday’s action tied for the top spot in the NFC East with the Cowboys. Philadelphia allowed 37 points in a blowout loss at Dallas in Week 7, but the Eagles have yielded a combined 37 points in the past two games.

The Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are also off the bye week, but New England dropped its first game of the season two weeks ago in a 37-20 blowout loss at Baltimore as three-point favorites. It seems easy to blindly back the Patriots off a defeat, but New England lost back-to-back games twice last season, and in both situations, they fell on the road each time. Tom Brady lit up the Eagles in that Super Bowl setback for 505 yards and three touchdown passes, as the Patriots have won 10 of the past 12 regular season affairs with NFC foes.

New England owns a perfect 2-0 record at Lincoln Financial Field since the stadium opened in 2003, but the Patriots have lost the two meetings with the Eagles. In the most recent regular season matchup in Foxboro in 2015, Philadelphia surprised New England as nine-point underdogs, 35-28.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Eagles 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 44 – Cardinals at 49ers

San Francisco’s defense allowed 77 points in its first seven games, but the 49ers have given up 52 points in the past two weeks. The Niners yielded 25 points against the Cardinals two weeks ago in a 28-25 victory in Arizona, but the final touchdown occurred on an 88-yard strike by Kyler Murray with five minutes remaining. Arizona’s offense hasn’t fared well on the road against teams with winning records by scoring 17 at Baltimore and 9 at New Orleans, while San Francisco.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

We’ll stick with that San Francisco/Arizona matchup as the 49ers opened as 13 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday. The Niners have slipped to a 10-point favorite, which also coincides coming off their first loss of the season to Seattle in overtime. The Cardinals have been a solid team to back recently by covering in five of the last six games, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark away from Glendale this season. San Francisco has not covered in two opportunities as a double-digit favorite this season, which includes that three-point win at Arizona as 10 ½-point chalk in Week 9.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bengals are the only team in the NFL not to win a game this season as they take their 0-9 record to the Black Hole in Oakland. Cincinnati is off a 49-13 home blowout loss to Baltimore last week, while Oakland is fresh off a pair of close home wins over Detroit and Los Angeles. Now, the Raiders are laying points for only the second time this season, as four of their past five covers have come in the underdog role. The Bengals’ offense has struggled in 2019, but Cincinnati has cashed in road games as ‘dogs of nine points or more at Seattle and Baltimore.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 11
Joe Williams

It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season, and it's hard to believe we have less than two months until the postseason begins. We're also hurtling toward Thanksgiving, too, when we'lll have the three Thursday games. But first things first, Week 11 features some very important battles. After Thursday's explosive matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns, the intensity appears to be ratcheting up with the pressure. The TNF game ended up going 'under', snapping a six-game 'over' streak in primetime games, the longest such run of the season.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 10 7-6 6-7 6-7

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 72-75-1 71-76-1 66-78-4

The books crushed it again in Week 10, but again that was mostly due to sides. The totals were just 7-6 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.

The half totals were very consistent, going 7-6 in favor of the 'under' last week. Here are the overall numbers this season for both the first-half (76-71-1) and second-half (78-66-4).

Division Bell

In the five divisional battles in Week 10, three went over - including the Monday nighter between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. The under is now 25-20 (55.6%) in divisional games this season, which includes Thursday's Steelers-Browns result.

Divisional Game Results Week 10
L.A. Chargers at Oakland Over (49) Oakland 26, L.A. Chargers 24
Atlanta at New Orleans Under (51.5) Atlanta 26, New Orleans 9
Baltimore at Cincinnati Over (44.5) Baltimore 49, Cincinnati 13
Detroit at Chicago Under (38) Chicago 20, Detroit 13
Seattle at San Francisco Over (47) Seattle 27, San Francisco 24

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Carolina: 54 to 49 ½
Dallas at Detroit: 51 to 47 ½
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (MNF): 49 to 52
Houston at Baltimore: 49 to 51 ½
Chicago at L.A. Rams (SNF): 42 to 40
Denver at Minnnesota: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Chicago at L.A. Rams: Under 94%
Houston at Baltimore: Over 91%
Atlanta at Carolina: Under 83%
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Under 81%
Denver at Minnesota: Over 79%
Arizona at San Francisco: Under 76%
Cincinnati at Oakland: Under 75%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (73 percent) in the New England at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in N.Y. Jets at Washington (72 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 11

Week 10 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-2 19-25
NFC vs. NFC 2-1 17-16
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 15-12-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 22-21

Other Week 11 Action

Dallas at Detroit: The Lions turn to QB Jeff Driskel again with QB Matthew Stafford (back) still on the shelf. The Lions have been experiencing plenty of injuries on offense, although they still should be able to do enough to go 'over' in this one. The defense has been atrocious, actually making Chicago's Mitch Trubisky look like an NFL-caliber signal caller. The over has hit in three of four games at Ford Field this season, and the defense has allowed 34, 42 and 26 points in those three over results. As road favorites, the Cowboys have posted 37 and 31 in their wins and 22 and 10 in two losses.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The Saints and Bucs square off at Raymond James Stadium. The first meeting in New Orleans back on Oct. 6 cashed the over, with the Saints winning 31-24. The over has hit in three of the past four in this series. Tampa Bay ranks dead-last against the pass, allowing 298.9 yards per game. New Orleans should enter this game angry after being held to just nine points in their stunning loss at home against the Falcons last week. The over is 9-3 in the past 12 for New Orleans after a straight-up loss, while the over is 7-3 in Tampa's past 10 after a straight-up win. The over is also 7-3 in the past 10 for the Bucs inside the division.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Panthers host the Falcons, who stunned the Saints in NOLA last week in an 'under' result. The under also hit in the Panthers game in the snow on the road against the Packers. In this NFC South battle, the under has ruled over the past 12 outings, going 9-3. That includes a 5-1 under mark in the past six battles at Bank of America Stadium, with the outlier Dec. 24, 2016 when the Falcons won 33-16 to cash over tickets by a half-point. The Falcons have actually hit the under in five straight against winning teams, while the under is 5-2 for the Panthers in the past seven against losing sides.

N.Y. Jets at Washington: There are just three wins in between the Jets and Redskins in the most unattractive game of the weekend. However, the winning tickets cash just the same. The over has connected in each of the past three for Gang Green, as they have averaging 22.3 PPG during the span while allowing 27.3 PPG. In fact, the Jets have allowed 22 or more points each of their past eight outings. Overall the Jets rank 25th in the NFL with 26.4 PPG allowed. However, their offense hasn't exactly been on point, ranking 32nd in total yards and passing yards, 31st in rushing yards and 30th in points scored at 14.4 PPG. The Redskins are also 30th in total yards and 31st in passing yards per game, while ranking dead-last in points scored (12.0 PPG). The lack of offense is why this game is the lowest total on the board, and only game under 40.

Buffalo at Miami: The Bills and Dolphins met on Oct. 20, with the Bills winning a 31-21 decision in a game which cashed well over. The previous two meetings at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami have produced a pair of under results, with the Bills averaging 19.5 PPG and the Dolphins averaging 18.5 PPG in those two battles. However, the over is 7-2 in the past nine in this series. Miami's defense has gotten better, allowing just 15 PPG in their past two games, and after posting 10, 0, 6, 10 in their first four outings, they're averaging 18.6 PPG across the past five games. The Dolphins still have a ways to go before they are considered a juggernaut, but they have been improving. Their 21 points in the loss in Buffalo was their second-highest production of the season.

Houston at Baltimore: The highest total on the board for Sunday's slate will be a rematch of QBs DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson, as these guys met in a memorable Louisville-Clemson battle in college. The Texans are coming off a bye after playing their last game in London, a 26-3 win over the Jags. If you're playing the 'London system', you'll want to play the over in this one. In the past two seasons the over is 9-3 for NFL teams playing in their first game back after a London game. As an added bonus, teams are 3-8-1 ATS in the past 12 after playing in the UK, which includes losses by both the Bengals and Rams last week.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The London system also applies in this one, as the Jags are back after a bye following their London game. The over/under split last season between these two divisional rivals, with the lowest scoring in the NFL last season, a 6-0 decision in favor of the Jags. The over hit in the meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 11, a 29-26 victory going to the Colts. That was a rarity, however, as the under has hit in seven of the past eight battles in Indianapolis, and four of the past five meetings overall. If you're an under bettor, you'll like the fact the under is a perfect 6-0 in Jacksonville's past six against winning sides and 13-5 in Indy's past 18 games inside the division. The under is also 13-3 in the past 16 when the Colts are rebounding from a straight-up loss. The good news for the Colts is that QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) is back under center. The over is actually 5-3 in Brissett's eight starts this season, with the under 1-0 in the game he missed last Sunday. And remember, London!

New England at Philadelphia: The Patriots and Eagles are each well rested after byes last week. New England's offense is usually well prepared after a bye, hitting the 'over' in six of the past seven following a week of rest. The under has been the dominant trend for the Pats this season, and really over the past two, cashing in 15 of the past 21 overall and five of the past six road games. The under is 12-5 in the past 17 for the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, while going 9-2 in the past 11 at home against teams with a winning road record. Philly's defense was very impressive in two games before the break, allowing just 13 and 14, and they have yielded just 20 total points in the past two home outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 11, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 40 ½ to 48 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have cashed the over in four of the past five outings, although the under cashed in their only game as a double-digit favorite back on Oct. 24 in a 19-9 win over the Redskins. The Vikings have faced two AFC West foes to date, scoring 34 and 23, hitting the 'over' in each contest. The under is 3-1 in Denver's four games on the road this season, splitting 1-1 in the first two against NFC North foes. As far as being a double-digit underdog, there isn't much to glean from this. Denver hasn't been a 'dog by more than 10 points in over a decade.

Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. ET): The Cards and 49ers just met on Halloween, and it was a treat for over bettors. Arizona gave San Francisco a hard time, just coming up short 28-25 in an 'over' result. The over has hit in three in a row for San Francisco, scoring 51, 28 and 24 while allowing 13, 25 and 27. It's quite the turnaround after a 5-1 'under' starts for Frisco. The over in 6-1 in the past seven for Arizona when coming off a straight-up loss, and 5-1 in San Francisco's past six inside the division. The Niners are coming off their first loss of the season, and the 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight following a straight-up loss, although we haven't see that happen this season.

Cincinnati at Oakland (4:25 p.m. ET): The Bengals and Raiders lock horns in the Black Hole, and this line ballooned to double digits in rather quick fashion. If you remember the "Thursday Night Football" system, the system tells you to play the over. The system is 6-3 in nine games, and was a winner last week with an over in the Cards-Bucs battle. While the over is the play if you follow the system, be careful. Cincinnati's offense is in flux, and following a move to QB Ryan Finley they look like they wanted to go with a more ground-based attack. RB Joe Mixon saw 30 carries to buoy the offense, and Finley just didn't look terribly sharp. The Raiders rank 10th against the run, so the Bengals might want to consider airing it out more. Oakland ranks 30th against the pass, allowing 285.3 yards per game.

Under the Lights

Chicago at L.A. Rams (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle between the Bears and Rams is expected to be a low-scoring affair. The Los Angeles defense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders lately. They're averaging just 20 PPG across the past four outings, and the defense is yielding just 14.3 PPG during the span. It's no surprise that the under is a perfect 4-0 during the span. In four games at the L.A. Coliseum this season, the under is 3-1, with the outlier that insane 55-40 loss against the Bucs back on Sept. 29. The Bears enter on a 3-0 under run, and they have scored 21 or fewer points in seven of their nine outings. Two of Chicago's three over results have come on the road this season, however, including a primetime game Sept. 23 in Washington.

Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Chiefs and Chargers hook up at Estadio Azteca in Ciudad de Mexico. We've seen two Mexico games in the past, with the over/under splittng 1-1. We were supposed to have the Chiefs and Rams hook up last Nov. 19, but that game was moved to L.A. due to unsafe field conditions in Mexico City. Since QB Pat Mahomes took the reins of the offense, the over is 10-3 with the Chiefs in away games, averaging a robust 36.3 PPG. He scorched the Bolts for six touchdown passes last season, and over the past three years Kansas City is averaging 31.6 PPG against the AFC West divisional rivals. The over has inched up from 49.5 to 52, and is now the highest on the board. This game will be played at an elevation of 7,200 feet, well above the Mile High elevation these teams are used to in trips to Denver each season.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 14-0 ATS (9.11 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 at home coming off a road game where they allowed 100+ rushing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Ravens are 0-14 ATS (-6.96 ppg) since 2005 coming off a win where they completed at least 74% of their passes last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-5.94 ppg) since Nov 20, 2016 coming off a win where Carson Wentz threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Lions are 11-0 OU (11.59 ppg) since Nov 27, 2008 off a game as a dog where they allowed no more than 15 first downs.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Patriots are 0-14-1 OU (-9.37 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 as a road favorite coming off a game where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Patriots are 13-0 ATS (+15.81 ppg) on the road when they are off a SU and ATS loss and their opponent is off an SU and ATS win.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Bears at Rams
Matt Blunt

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Last week's rant against the Marvin Lewis coaching tree didn't work out, as Minnesota did go into Dallas and came out as the victors. The Vikings still got ultra-conservative in that 4th quarter as they did have a sense of playing not to lose rather then to win, and even with the unit lost, my opinion hasn't really changed on Minnesota. They are still a team that will tense up in tight spots and not likely get through. It's on to this week's game though, and another team I was wrong about this year on the whole, as Chicago heads west to play the LA Rams.

I had Chicago coming out of the NFC to be Super Bowl bound this year, and that couldn't have been more wrong just 10 weeks later. I knew the turnover margin they Bears got last year wasn't sustainable, but I expected the Bears offense to take multiple steps forward, not multiple steps backwards. Chicago's 2019 season is now on the brink of collapse now, as these guys know they are a much better team then what their record shows, but one more loss soon and it's probably time to pack up shop and get ready for offseason vacation plans. Chicago isn't likely going to catch Green Bay or Minnesota within the division, and then that leaves only one Wildcard spot as an option, and that's likely going to the NFC West runner up.

It's now or never for the Bears, and depending on how you figure Chicago's going to come out of that proposition is where you'll end up in terms of playing this game.

Total Talk

This number opened at 42 and has since taken 'under' action for the majority of the week. Given how bad the Bears offense has been this entire year, 'under' money in Chicago games is no surprise. It's not like the Rams offense did themselves any favors in terms of those potentially looking at an 'over' here, as LA's offense wasn't responsible for 9 of the 12 points the team scored last week. That's not a one-off of a bad game for Goff and that Rams attack either, as there are starting to be some louder concerns about that unit then anyone expected coming into the year.

On top of all that, it's easy to remember the game in late-December these two played last season in Chicago, where it was the Bears defense who choked the life out of a then-dynamic Rams attack. Chicago's basically got that same defense out there on the field this year, so there is that as well. 'Under' money was always going to come in here, and at 42 it's probably the right course of action. At the current number of 40.5, it's probably best to pass.

I say that because, the Rams “one-offs” of bad offensive performances rarely, if ever, turn into consecutive games like that. LA has scored 20 or fewer points three times this year, and after the previous two, they responded with 40 and 37 points themselves in the next respective games. They were actually just 1-1 SU (and 1-1 O/U and ATS) in those games, which tells you that after an offensive stinker, their own defensive play tends to take a step back. Chicago's offense wouldn't scare a 7th grade team right now, but they still are pros, and miscommunication or blown assignments on the back end of LA's defense is something all NFL teams can take advantage of.

Furthermore, LA is going to have a much better idea of what to expect from Chicago after last year's game, and a year to think about schemes that will have much better success against what the Bears run is plenty of time to find at least a few things that work.

It's also not a mid-December game in Chicago, it's in sunny, warm LA and that has to benefit the Rams chances for success on offense much more then walking into Chicago did a year ago. It's still hard to trust either of these teams to put up the necessary points to creep over the current total, but it's something that should be a pass now.

Side Spiel

Because this game is out in LA, and the Rams are in a “do-or-die” mode themselves in terms of making the playoffs this year, it is hard not to like the Rams to cover this number of less than a TD. LA is in just as a precarious spot in terms of trying to stay in the Wildcard picture, because they aren't likely to catch both San Francisco and Seattle. Beating down one of those teams looking up at them like Chicago could be a nice momentum builder for LA as the rest of their schedule is rather tough.

Sean McVay's ability to game plan will pay dividends in this rematch with Chicago too, and while the numbers don't always show it, LA's offense is easier to trust at home. McVay and Goff will have a much better plan set out in terms of attacking this Bears defense, and hopefully it leads to a nice 20+ point effort again coming off a bad offensive showing.

And then, we can't forget that it is the Bears offense on the other side of the field that will need to do more then nothing multiple times to ensure that this game stays within the point spread. At this point I'm not sure how you can thing that will be the case as it's not like LA's defense doesn't have a few talented playmakers as well. Quite frankly, I can't believe I was this wrong on Chicago coming into the year.

Finally, as desperate as Chicago's situation is and could be used as a positive in terms of motivation, do you really think there is that much belief in the locker room that the team can make something out of 2019. Sure, the Bears could win this week to stay alive, but then they've basically got to run the table, get a bit of help, and do it all with QB Mitchell Trubisky who doesn't even want T.V's on in the building because there is so much criticism coming his way. Do you really believe the Bears believe they can overcome all of that, and then go on to make a deep playoff run? I know I sure don't.

Chicago has resigned themselves to their fate of this being a sub-par, lost season weeks ago. Even if the defense plays the best any unit has in the history of football for the next six weeks or so, they've still got to overcome what they put on the field on offense, and long term in 2019, that just isn't going to work. Yes the defense will rise up at least one more time to potentially pull off a big upset – likely at home – a nice, warm trip to sunny Los Angeles in the middle of November isn't where I expect that to be the case. Especially against a Rams team who's underachieved by their standards as well this season.

Final Thoughts

The Rams may be a tough sell for some after what they saw from them in Pittsburgh last week, but they probably only need 20 points here to win and cover the game. Chicago's scored 20 or fewer points in three straight games and six of their nine games this season. The Bears offense has been that bad, and with the locker room already having a sense that the year will end up going nowhere, a trip to LA in November could 'conveniently' be full of distractions for many guys on this Bears team.

LA has a more legitimate shot at playing themselves back into playoff position, and at home and under the lights, they should get it done in relatively comfortable fashion.

Best Bet: LA Rams -6.5

[StarDust Bum]

Circa Picks - Week 11
November 16, 2019
By VI News

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 11

1) Cowboys -4.5 (816)

2) Patriots -3.5 (551)

3) Cardinals +10.5 (543)

4) Texans +4 (515)

5) Jets +1 (483)

CIRCA - WEEK 11 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Pittsburgh (+3) 149 Cleveland (-3) 78
Dallas (-4.5) 816 Detroit (+4.5) 81
New Orleans (-5.5) 278 Tampa Bay (-5.5) 342
Atlanta (+5.5) 317 Carolina (-5.5) 309
Jacksonville (+3) 397 Indianapolis (-3) 198
Denver (+10.5) 288 Minnesota (-10.5) 239
N.Y. Jets (+1) 483 Washington (-1) 252
Buffalo (-6) 356 Miami (+6) 333
Houston (+4) 515 Baltimore (-4) 307
Arizona (+10.5) 543 San Francisco (-10.5) 111
New England (-3.5) 551 Philadelphia (+3.5) 282
Cincinnati (+10.5) 149 Oakland (-10.5) 326
Chicago (+6.5) 426 L.A. Rams (-6.5) 185
Kansas City (-3.5) 414 L.A. Chargers (+3.5) 194

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%
5 2-3 13-12 52%
6 2-3 15-15 50%
7 2-2-1 17-17-1 50%
8 3-2 20-19-1 51%
9 0-5 20-24-1 45%
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 11
November 16, 2019
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 11

1) Arizona +11 (1192)

2) Houston +4 (1080)

3) New England -3.5 (1071)

4) N.Y. Jets +1 (892)

5) Kansas City -3.5 (840)

SUEPRCONTEST - WEEK 11 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Pittsburgh (+3) 346 Cleveland (-3) 217
Dallas (-6.5) 825 Detroit (+6.5) 233
New Orleans (-5.5) 554 Tampa Bay (+5.5) 646
Atlanta (+5.5) 534 Carolina (-5.5) 722
Jacksonville (+2.5) 546 Indianapolis (-2.5) 516
Denver (+10.5) 488 Minnesota (-10.5) 444
N.Y. Jets (+1) 892 Washington (-1) 353
Buffalo (-6) 547 Miami (+6) 657
Houston (+4) 1080 Baltimore (-4) 581
Arizona (+11) 1192 San Francisco (-11) 178
New England (-3.5) 1071 Philadelphia (+3.5) 535
Cincinnati (+10.5) 250 Oakland (-10.5) 630
Chicago (+6.5) 704 L.A. Rams (-6.5) 370
Kansas City (-3.5) 840 L.A. Chargers (+3.5) 359

SUPERCONTEST - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 3-2 6-4 60%
3 3-2 9-6 60%
4 2-3 11-9 55%
5 3-2 14-11 56%
6 2-3 16-14 53%
7 3-2 19-16 54%
8 2-3 21-19 53%
9 0-4-1 21-23-1 47%
10 1-3-1 22-26-2 46%

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 11
Tony Mejia

Cowboys (-7/46.5) at Lions, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Matthew Stafford is sidelined for another week due to a back issue and may not even return for Detroit’s Thanksgiving game, so Jeff Driskel will be back on the center. The mobile Florida native has won once in six starts after last week’s setback against Chicago but does bring a skill set to the table that Dallas has to account for. He targeted Kenny Golladay nine times but connected just three times and didn’t get the benefit of much of a run game to help take the pressure off him since he ended up as the team’s leading rusher. Golladay hauled in a 47-yard score late in Detroit’s final push and offers the Lions their best chance to hang around.

The Lions have been more competitive at home than on the road, so we’ll see if that changes without Stafford. They’re 2-2 SU and ATS at Ford Field but have dropped four of their last five outright and haven’t covered in a four-game span. Coming off a disappointing home loss to Minnesota, this is undoubtedly a must-win for a Cowboys team that still also has to visit New England, Chicago and Philadelphia. Detroit CB Darius Slay will play, as will Amari Cooper, who has been limited in practice due to knee and ankle issues. Tackle La’el Collins is questionable but should play, while guard Zack Martin is expected to go. It seems like Jason Garrett gets fired on social media after every loss, but it would be especially bad for him to fumble away this one.

Saints (-5.5/49.5) at Bucs, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Following last week’s terrible loss to Atlanta, Drew Brees and an offense that managed just three field goals coming out of their bye week looks to rebound against a Bucs’ defense that ranks dead last in points allowed (31.0). Brees has had some rough days in Tampa over the years and has been picked off 18 times over 13 games. He called last week’s loss “unacceptable” but will have to rebound without guard Andrius Peat, who is out with an arm injury. Tackle Terron Armstead has been dealing with the flu, so the first part of what went wrong last week – protection – may still be shaky.

Jameis Winston hasn’t overcome his turnover issues but made enough plays against Arizona last week to help the Bucs snap a four-game losing streak. He’s going to get the ball to Mike Evans in this game after allowing his No. 1 receiver to be shut out by Marcus Lattimore the first time around. Lattimore is out with a hamstring issue this time so the Saints could have issues stopping Evans and Chris Godwin, who ranks third behind L.A.’s Cooper Kupp and N.O.’s Michael Thomas in yards after catch. Corner P.J. Williams is suspended and Patrick Robinson is dealing with a knee issue, so New Orleans comes in vulnerable. The Saints haven’t lost consecutive games since the beginning of the 2017 season and beat the Bucs 31-24 on Oct. 6, but they haven’t swept Tampa since ’14. The ‘over’ has connected in seven straight Tampa contests.

Falcons at Panthers (-4/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Falcons came out of their bye week refreshed and apparently locked in on playing spoiler. Another divisional foe awaits in the Panthers, who will see Atlanta twice in the next four games and looks to bounce back from a disappointing loss in Green Bay where they fell just short of putting themselves in position to tie. Kyle Allen has won both of his starts in Charlotte, but it’s been Christian McCaffrey whose shown out, running for 326 yards and four touchdowns.

Atlanta gets back CB Desmond Trufant but is still without safety Kemal Ishmael. The offense won’t have starting RB Devonta Freeman or productive Austin Hooper, who leads all NFL tight ends with 56 catches but is out with a knee injury. Brian Hill is expected to get the bulk of the carries trying to balance out the offense. Atlanta has won three of the last four meetings, holding McCaffrey to 465 yards and a single touchdown. Julio Jones has made 71 catches for 1,233 yards and six scores and has helped the Falcons to a 9-4 mark in games he’s played in.

Jaguars at Colts (-2.5/43), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Nick Foles will see his first action since Week 1 and is thrown into a situation where he’ll be asked to win on the road to get the Jags back to .500 just to make a late-season push appear feasible. Indianapolis is in survival mode too and gets Jacoby Brissett back from a knee injury after a dreadful loss to the Dolphins where backup Brian Hoyer struggled with turnovers. T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell remain sidelined, so Brissett will have to click with his tight ends and WR Zach Pascal.

While quarterbacks returning from injuries has made the headlines, this will likely ultimately be decided by running backs Marlon Mack and Leonard Fournette and their ability to help their teams reach the end zone instead of settling for field goals. Fournette comes out of his bye week looking to bounce back from being held to a season-low 40 yards 11 carries by the Texans in London. The Colts have been a middle-of-the-road defense against the run while the Jags are 29th of 32 in allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Jacksonville gets CB D.J. Hayden back, while CB Quincy Wilson will be in the mix for the Colts. There are a lot of variables in play here, but if Foles can pick up where he left off in displaying chemistry with WR D.J. Chark and Brissett is healthy enough to keep drives alive with his feet, we should see points.

Broncos at Vikings (-10/40), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: After a win and a bye week, Brandon Allen will make his first career road start against a talented defense. The Arkansas native wasn’t picked off in his first start and threw TD passes to Courtland Sutton and rookie tight end Noah Fant in a victory over Cleveland but won’t get tackle Ja’Wuan James back and isn’t likely to have tight end Jeff Heuerman in the fold as he takes on a defense that held New York rookie Daniel Jones to just 182 yards in a 28-10 win in Week 3.

After pulling off a 28-24 upset in Dallas, the Vikings have now won five of six, dropping only a 26-23 result in Kansas City after a pair of clutch Harrison Butker field goals knocked them off to open the month. Minnesota is perfect at home this season, winning all four of its games and covering all but once, outscoring opponents 119-55. Kirk Cousins will have to make due without WR Adam Thielen, who is sidelined by a hamstring injury for the third time in four games. DT Linval Joseph is also out, as is safety Anthony Harris, so the recently reacquired Andrew Sendejo is likely to start if he can overcome his own hammy issue.

Texans at Ravens (-4.5/51.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Houston safety Tashaun Gipson returns, which give Houston a little hope that they can find a way to stifle Lamar Jackson. The Ravens haven’t scored fewer than 23 points in a game all season and poured in 49 last week in Cincinnati, their largest output since their 59-10 Week 1 rout of Miami. It’s obvious the Ravens have hit their stride and play the bully role extremely well but they’ve got someone closer to their own size in town for a visit. Rookie WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is set to stand out after overcoming an ankle injury.

The Texans won’t have WR Will Fuller V back but should have better protection for Deshaun Watson in play with tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard joining center Greg Mancz in being cleared to take part. Houston has scored at least 23 points in seven of their nine outings, including five in succession. This will be the Texans’ fourth road game in a six-week span. Coming off a bye may give a J.J. Watt-less defense more time to figure out how to keep Jackson from continuing his remarkable run that has him up over 700 rushing yards in addition to his great work with his arm. Watson vs. Jackson won’t be foiled by bad weather since it won’t be particularly windy in chilly Baltimore, where temperatures will hover in the low 40s.

Cardinals at 49ers (-9.5/43.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: The Niners look to shake off their first loss of the season on a short week but had the benefit of staying home as they look to bounce back from falling short in OT against Russell Wilson-led Seattle. They won’t get TE George Kittle back from the knee injury that sidelined him on Monday night, but did catch a break with center Weston Richburg not missing any time due to an ankle sprain. Although rookie replacement Dre Greenlaw had a big interception in OT, the 49ers will obviously miss LB Kwon Alexander against a team with a mobile QB like Kyler Murray who targets guys on short and intermediate passes.

Arizona has a chance to be competitive since Murray will be seeing a defense for the second time in less than three weeks and did his best work in that game late. The Cardinals’ defense could get Terrell Suggs back despite him not practicing and hopes to have CB Tramaine Brock out there. After getting knocked out of Monday night’s game, Emmanuel Sanders is expected to play through sore ribs, but starting RB Matt Breida won’t participate. Tevin Coleman should get additional work as a result. Week 9’s 28-25 Niners win in Glendale snapped Arizona’s eight-game winning streak in the series. San Francisco last pulled off a sweep since 2013.

Patriots (-4.5/44.5) at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: New England lost consecutive games twice last season and still managed to win another Super Bowl, but you know there are people chomping at the bit to sprinkle dirt on Tom Brady and the Pats again should they lose here. Bill Belichick is coming off a bye and has won four of five in this situation, covering four of five too. New England is 14-4 with an extra week to prepare since 2001 but will have to overcome the elements here too since freezing rain is expected to dissipate by kickoff but winds that could reach 30 miles per hour will remain ever present. Temperatures will be in the mid-30’s.

New England comes out of its bye week relatively healthy and should get rookie WR N’Keal Harry into the fold. Tight end Matt LaCosse is also potentially due back from a knee injury, so Brady should have a number of sharpened weapons in play since Julian Edelman is also completely healthy. RB Jordan Howard is out for the Eagles, while WR Alshon Jeffery won’t play either. Carson Wentz hasn’t had DeSean Jackson on board for most of the season so rookie RB Miles Sanders will have an opportunity to make a big splash and figures to get plenty of touches.

Bengals at Raiders (-12.5/48.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: After surviving the Chargers two Thursdays ago, Oakland is in position to make the playoffs. Nearly half the season remains and there’s a pack of teams in the chase, but Jon Gruden has done a great job with a young roster and will have to navigate a new role as a heavy favorite to take advantage of the schedule breaks that see Cincinnati in town this week and a visit to the Jets on tap for next week. The Bengals are winless and allowing Ryan Finley to get on-the-job training, so even though a double-digit spread seems excessive, it’s understandable. A.J. Green is still sidelined with an ankle injury, so Oakland’s depleted secondary catches a break.

Temperatures should be in the 70’s and winds won’t be a factor, so Derek Carr will have a chance to put up big numbers in what will be his final November game at the Coliseum. Tight end Derek Waller has struggled over the past few weeks and is due a bounce-back after just seven catches over the past three games. Cincinnati has failed to cover in five of its last six losses while the Raiders have covered in three straight, so you’re definitely paying the tax for that on this spread since it should ideally be closer to 10 points. The Bengals will need to get Auden Tate and Tyler Boyd off and running early in order to hang around.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 17
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

JAC at IND 01:00 PM
JAC +2.5
U 42.0

BUF at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +7.0
U 41.5

NO at TB 01:00 PM
TB +5.0
O 50.5

DEN at MIN 01:00 PM
DEN +10.0
U 40.0

NYJ at WAS 01:00 PM
U 37.5

HOU at BAL 01:00 PM
HOU +4.5
O 51.0

ATL at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR -3.5

DAL at DET 01:00 PM
DET +7.5
O 46.5

[StarDust Bum]

ARI at SF 04:05 PM
ARI +10.0
O 44.0

CIN at OAK 04:25 PM
OAK -13.0
U 48.0

NE at PHI 04:25 PM
PHI +4.5
U 45.0

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Cowboys 35, Lions 27:
— Cowboys are 6-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-4 when they don’t.
— Dallas is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as road favorites, 3-2 TY.
— Prescott threw for 444 yards and three TD’s, averaging 9.4 ypa.

— Detroit lost six of its last seven games.
— WR Galladay didn’t catch a pass until there was 3:01 left in game.
— Six of Detroit’s last eight games went over.

Vikings 27, Broncos 23:
— Denver led this game 20-0 at halftime.
— Broncos had ball on Vikings’ 8-yard line when game ended, couldn’t score.
— Denver is 23-7 ATS in last 30 post-bye games, 8-2 in last ten.

— Vikings in 1st half: 6 series, 23 plays, 37 yards, zero points.
— Vikings in 2nd half: 4 series, 35 plays, 279 yards, 27 points.
— Minnesota won for 6th time in last seven games.

Falcons 29, Panthers 3:
— Atlanta was 1-7 before its bye; they’re 2-0 since, not allowing an offensive TD.
— Falcons’ first TD came on a 78-yard punt return.
— This was Atlanta’s first game outdoors this season.

— Carolina lost three of last four games after a 4-2 start.
— In their first eight games, Panthers were +8 in turnovers; last two weeks, minus-6.
— Carolina lost to Atlanta for 7th time in last eight series games.

Saints 34, Buccaneers 17:
— Saints won seven of their last eight games.
— NO converted 8-15 on 3rd down, outgained Bucs 457-252- they gained 9.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Saints are 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite.

— Buccaneers lost five of their last six games.
— In its last five games, Tampa Bay has a minus-14 turnover ratio.
— Seven of Tampa Bay’s last eight games went over the total.

Colts 33, Jaguars 13:
— Jaguars ran ball only 9 times, dropped back to pass 50 times.
— Jacksonville didn’t have a snap inside the Colts’ 20-yard line.
— Jags are 3-6-1 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog

— Colts ran ball for 264 yards, outgained Jaguars 389-310.
— Four of Indy’s six home games went over the total.
— Home side won eight of last nine series games.

Jets 34, Redskins 17:
— Darnold threw for 293 yards, a career-high four TD’s.
— Jets outgained Washington 394-225 in this game.
— Jets’ last four games went over the total.

— Redskins lost their last four games, outscored 52-18
— Washington scored two TD’s on its last 35 drives.
— Redskins are 2-10 ATS in last dozen post-bye games.

Bills 37, Dolphins 20:
— Buffalo outrushed the Dolphins 168-23. outgained them 424-303
— Bills’ first four drives: 30 plays, 212 yards, one TD, three FG’s.
— Hauschka made a 51-yard fG, snapping an 0-5 skid on 50+-yard FG’s.

— Dolphins have been outscored 159-37 in second half of games.
— This was first time in last five games that Miami trailed at halftime.
— Dolphins ran a kickoff back 101 yards for a TD just before halftime.

Ravens 41, Texans 7:
— Watson was sacked seven times, averaged only 3.7 ypa.
— Houston trailed at halftime in six of last eight games.
— Texans are now 0-6 all-time in Baltimore.

— Baltimore won its last six games, covered last four.
— Ravens ran ball for 263 yards; only 9 of their 64 plays were on 3rd down.
— Baltimore in 2nd half: 5 series, 30 plays, 298 yards, three TD’s, two FG’s.

49ers 36, Cardinals 26:
— Arizona led this game 16-0 in second quarter.
— Cardinals were outgained 442-266, but led 26-23 with 1:00 to play.
— Arizona covered five of its last six games as a road underdog.

— Garoppolo was 34-45/424 passing with four TD’s.
— 49ers’ last four games went over the total.
— Under Shanahan, 49ers are 4-6 ATS as a home favorites, 2-3 TY

Patriots 17, Eagles 10:
— Both teams scored one touchdown, combined to convert 8-28 on 3rd down.
— Once Patriots got the lead, they had six drives: 26 plays, 83 yards, six punts.
— New England is 18-11 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.

— Eagles’ 3rd drive was a 16-play, 95-yard TD drive; took 9:33.
— After that drive, on 9 drives, Philly ran 44 plays for 165 yards, zero points.
— New England had a 14-yard advantage in field position.

Raiders 17, Bengals 10:
— Cincy’s last nine drives: 44 plays, 158 yards, three points.
— Bengals are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog, 4-1 TY.
— Rookie QB Finley was 13-31/115 yards; not good.

— Oakland (6-4) is tied atop AFC West with the Chiefs.
— None of Raiders’ six wins are by more than 8 points.
— Oakland had nine plays of 20+ yards, most in the league the week.

Rams 17, Bears 7:
— The guy who drafted Trubisky over Mahomes/Jackson should be fired. Today.
— Chicago lost five of its last six games.
— Bears are 4-1 when they allow 15 or fewer points, 0-5 when they allow more.

— Rams were down three starters on OL and their two best WR’s. It showed.
— LA’s last five games stayed under the total.
— Rams’ OL coach and punter Hekker were great; the rookie OL played well enough.