Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[Udog]

NFL trends for Week 10:

— Buffalo covered seven of its last ten games.

— Carolina is 24-12 ATS in last 36 games as a road underdog.

— Chicago covered eight of its last nine NFC North games.

— Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.

— Arizona covered seven of its last ten games.

— Dallas is 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen home games.

— Titans are 8-16-2 ATS in last 26 games as a home underdog.

— Tampa Bay is 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Seattle covered its last five games as a divisional road dog.

— Vikings covered 12 of last 17 games as a road underdog.

— New Orleans won/covered its last six games.

— Green Bay covered 12 of its last 17 games.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


HUNTING FOR CHUBB

Nick Chubb currently sits fourth in the league in rushing with 806 yards — behind Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette — thanks to his 5.2 yards per rush (sixth best). So of course, Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens said he wants to scale back his attempts to make room for Kareem Hunt who had been suspended for the first eight games of the season. Kitchens sure has a good grasp on how to run a stereotypical Cleveland football team.

The Buffalo Bills have allowed the third-most rushing attempts over the last three weeks (31 per game) at a clip of 4.8 yards per attempt. This means there is still plenty of room for Chubb to get 17-20 rushes on Sunday as Hunt will most likely absorb a good piece of backup RB Dontrell Hilliard’s 40 percent snap share.

Chubb has eclipsed 85 yards rushing in five of his last six weeks against the fourth, 24th, 20th, 22nd and 13th DVOA rush defenses — Buffalo is ranked 30th. Take Chubbs’ Over 91.5 rushing total as the matchup might be Kitchens-proof.


ROAD DOGS LOST THEIR BITE

If you have been following the ATS trends of road and home teams this year, then you will know that the visitors have been dominating with road underdogs hitting at an even higher rate. Heading into last week, road teams were 73-47-2 ATS (60%) and road dogs were 52-29-2 (63%) ATS. However, Week 9 saw a serious regression to the mean as home teams went 11-3 ATS while road dogs went 1-6 ATS.

This week, we like home teams to continue their hot run and are throwing down a two-teamer to prove it. Yesterday, we wrote about backing the Jets as three-point home dogs, so we will exclude them from this list.

Rams at Steelers (+3.5): The Steelers are coming in hot having won four of their last five (with their only loss in overtime against the Ravens) and will look to move into a playoff position with a win over the well-rested Los Angeles Rams. L.A.’s strength of schedule may hurt them as their last three wins were against teams who are 3-21 combined this year.

The game could easily be won on the pass rush where the Steelers are second in the league in QB hits produced while their quarterback, Mason Rudolph, has been sacked more than once just two times in his six game.

Vikings at Cowboys (-3): The Vikes have lost three road games this year to Chicago, Green Bay and last week in Kansas City — all by at least three points. The offense will also be with Adam Thielen as Kirk Cousins and his 15-26-2 career road record and 1-6 record versus the Cowboys could struggle in primetime.


THE BEST ARE GETTING BETTER

The San Francisco 49ers run game is good — really good. They lead the NFC in rushing yards per game, rushes per game and rushing touchdowns per game. Things could possibly be getting better for Kyle Shanahan’s rushing attack as left tackle Joe Stanley plans to play in Week 10 against a Seattle Seahawks team that has allowed 367 yards on the ground over the last three weeks.

The 49ers have been less efficient running to the left tackle side as their 4.01 yards per carry is one full yard less than their yards per carry behind the right tackle. Matt Breida saw his snap count increase by 10 percent in Week 9 as he outgained fellow running back Tevin Coleman 78 to 23 but played 12 fewer offensive snaps. The Seahawks’ 22nd ranked DVOA rush defense may have no answers for the 49ers rushing game.

We are jumping on Breida’s rushing total of 56.5 yards and hitting the Over is what is shaping up to be an epic Monday night matchup.


RIDING THE ROOKIE WAVE

The Cincinnati Bengals have benched Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley ahead of their Week 10 contest against the talk of the town Baltimore Ravens. The former Wolfpack was the sixth signal-caller taken in this year’s draft and finished the preseason with a 72.3 percent completion rate while only taking four sacks in 64 pass attempts.

We usually like fading rookies, but with how much praise Baltimore is getting after their win over the Patriots, the Ravens may be sleeping on the Bengals who could have the services of A.J. Green. Dalton averaged 281.5 yards a game while taking 3.6 sacks a game proving the offensive potential is there and that this isn't a Luke Falk situation.

Fellow rookie QBs Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen all threw for over 250 yards in their first taste of the NFL this year. Let’s ride the rookie wave and play the Over 250.5 passing yards on Finley and hopefully, he will be drowning in memes come Monday.


KICKERS ARE PEOPLE TOO

For this week’s kicking prop, we are going to stick with what’s working. We are 3-0 over the last three weeks fading the weather in the northeast. Checking out the Covers weather report we can see that poor kicking conditions are expected in Cleveland where the Buffalo Bills meet the Browns.

The weather looks below freezing with strong winds and a high chance of snow. That’s great news as Bills kicker Stephen Hauschka who has yet to make a kick from 50 or longer and hasn’t hit anything longer than 45 yards since Week 4. Cleveland Kicker Austin Seibert has yet to attempt a kick longer than 49.

Take the Under 46.5 yards on the longest field goal.

[StarDust Bum]

Game
Time(ET)
Pick
Units
LAC at OAK
08:20 PM
OAK +1.5
U 48.5 *****
*****

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0-1 ATS (.27 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a road dog of no more than 13 points coming off a game where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.25 ppg) since Oct 29, 2017 when their last two games both went over the total.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS (9.56 ppg) since Oct 22, 2017 as a favorite coming off a game where Ezekiel Elliott had at least 20 rushes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Browns are 0-12 OU (-8.21 ppg) since Dec 06, 2015 at home on grass when they are off two consecutive losses where they failed to cover.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Giants are 14-0 OU (8.57 ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 on the road off a loss as a dog where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-14 ATS (-13.93 ppg) off a loss when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 278 offensive yards per game.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 10
Joe Williams

It's Week 10 of the National Football League regular season, and we're already off to a quick start - kinda. The Thursday night battle between the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders inched over the finish line for 50 points on a line of 49 at most shops. If you're scoring at home, primetime games have now watched the over connect in four straight, which is a season-long streak for games under the lights this season.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 9 10-4 9-5 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 66-69-1 65-69-1 60-71-4

The books were back on top in Week 9, but that was mostly due to side bets. The totals were 10-4 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.

Bettors hoping for high-scoring games in Week 9 were very pleased, hitting the over in 10 of 14 outings The games got off to quick starts, too, with the over connecting in the first half in nine of 14 contests, with the 'under' going 8-6 in the second half last week. Through 135 games this season, the 'under' sits at 69-66-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (69-65-1) and second-half (71-60-4).

Division Bell

In the four divisional battles in Week 9, three went over - including all three of the games on North American soil. Only the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium ended up going under the total, mostly due to the ineffectiveness of the Jags offense. The under is now 24-15 (61.5%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 9
San Francisco at Arizona Over (43.5) San Francisco 28, Arizona 25
Houston vs. Jacksonville (London) Under (46) Houston 26, Jacksonville 3
N.Y. Jets at Miami Over (42.5) Miami 26, N.Y. Jets 18
Dallas at N.Y. Giants Over (48.5) Dallas 37, N.Y. Giants 18

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 10 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Detroit at Chicago: 44 to 41
N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: 41 ½ to 44 ½
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): 44 to 47
Buffalo at Cleveland: 42 ½ to 40
Minnesota at Dallas (SNF): 45 ½ to 48
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: 45 ½ to 43 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 10 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Detroit at Chicago: Under 92%
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: Under 92%
Miami at Indianapolis: Over 90%
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): Over 89%
Buffalo at Cleveland: Under 87%
Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 77%
Kansas City at Tennessee: Over 77%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Carolina at Green Bay (66 percent) battle.

Handicapping Week 10

Week 9 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-1 16-23
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 15-15
AFC vs. AFC 3-0 14-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 21-20

Other Week 10 Action

Kansas City at Tennessee: The Chiefs have their big gun back, as QB Patrick Mahomes is expected to be under center after missing the past two due to a partially dislocated kneecap. The over actually hit in each of the past two without Mahomes, and the over is 6-3 in nine games overall. Kansas City is on the road, and there is no real lean here, as the total is 2-2 in four games away from home, all Mahomes starts. The Titans have hit the over in three in a row, scoring 23, 27 and 20, while allowing 20, 23 and 30. It's a big change after the under hit in five in a row from Week 2 through 6. The over is 6-2 in Tennessee's past eight at home, too.

Buffalo at Cleveland: The total has plummeted from 42.5 to 40, and is the lowest total on the board for Week 10. The 'under' opened 5-0 for Buffalo this season, and they were the last team in the NFL to see an 'over' result. The under has hit in all three of Buffalo's game this season, allowing just 12.3 PPG (16, 14 and 7). The under is 8-1 in the past nine overall for Buffalo, too. As far as the Browns are concerned, they were expected to do big things this season. So far, that's only happened once on the road in Week 4 at Baltimore (40 points), and one in Week 6 against Seattle (28 points). They have averaged 14 PPG in the other six outings.

While the Browns are actually favored in this game, keep this in mind...if they lose, season win total bettors will at least push the under 9 on tickets since they would drop to 2-7, with the most wins possible at 9. If the Bills win, they would be 7-2, cashing the over of six wins.

Arizona at Tampa Bay: Bucs head coach Bruce Arians will get a crack at his former team for the first time. This total is well in the fifties, sitting at 52.5 as of Saturday morning. Totals that have closed in the fifties this season have hit the over in 11 of 19 games (57.9 percent). If you remember the Thursday Night system, it's 5-3 this season (62.5 percent), getting back on track with Minnesota's over in Kansas City in Week 9. The home team in the previous Thursday night game has hit the over in five of eight games in their following game. Arizona was home to Frisco last time out, so is an over in the cards? The last time the Cardinals have hit the road for the Eastern Time Zone, they scored 17, 26 and 27 points. The 17 points came in Week 2 in Baltimore, as they left a lot of points on the board in QB Kyler Murray's first NFL road start. The Cards have 22 field goals so far this season, which is troublesome for over bettors. Tampa Bay's pass defense might help solve that, however, as they're downright awful. The over has hit in six straight for the Bucs. They have been favorites twice this season, losing both games while allowing 32 and 31 points.

N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: The Jets offense has been abysmal outside of their lone victory against Dallas back on Oct. 13, scoring a season-best 24 points. They have averaged just 10.8 PPG in four games at home this season, with the 'under' 3-1 in their four games at MetLife. For the G-Men, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 on the road - although this game is obviously in their very same building where they play their home games, just a different locker room. At MetLife they have scored 14, 24, 10, 21 and 18, hitting the 'under' in four of five. The only over at MetLife came last week against the aforementioned Cowboys, who manhandled the G-Men 37-18. Of course, that game was fortunate to go over, as there was a scoop and score with six seconds to flip the total to over.

Detroit at Chicago: The total has dropped from an open of 43.5 to 41.5, perhaps because the 'under' has cashed in four of the past six battles in this series. While that's all well and good, the 'over' has hit in each of the past two battles at Soldier Field, including a 34-22 Bears win on Nov. 11 last season. The over has been hot for Detroit lately, hitting in three straight, and five of the past six. It's been a combination of two things, as Detroit has scored 22 or more points in six in a row for the Lions, while yielding 23 or more points in each outing. The Bears offense has been poor, posting 16 or fewer points in five of their eight games, hitting the 'under' five times this season. The Chicago defense is also ranked sixth overall, allowing just 18 PPG.

Carolina at Green Bay: The Packers laid a huge egg last week on the road against the Chargers, scoring just 11 points. They nearly ended up in single digits except for a late touchdown and two-point conversion. They'll be glad to be back at Lambeau where they have totals of 21, 27, 27, 23 and 42, hitting the over in three of the past four. For the Panthers, the venue hasn't mattered lately, as they have cashed the over in four straight, and six of eight overall. The offense has produced 30 or more points three of the past four, and the defense has yielded 20 or more points in seven of eight this season. The key to this game will be two-fold. Carolina's pass defense ranks ninth in the NFL, so QB Aaron Rodgers faces a tough task. Green's rush defense is a dismal 24th in the league, so they'll have a difficult time slowing down RB QB Christian McCaffrey.

L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: The Rams team total is 23.5, and they have hit that in three of the past four games. They're coming off a bye, and they have scored 30 and 51 in head coach Sean McVay's two games off a bye. The Rams have hit the under in six of their past eight games on the road, and the under is 5-1 in the past six on a grass surface, too. The Steelers enter this game as a home underdog for the second time this season. They lost 26-23 to Baltimore back on Oct. 6, one of three over results in the first eight games. For Pittsburgh, the under is 7-3 in their past 10 on a grass surface, although the over has hit in five of the past seven against winning teams, and 14 of their past 20 games at Heinz Field overall. Of course, a good chunk of those games were with Big Ben, Antonio Brown, etc. - guys not on the field in this one.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 10, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 44 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): QB Matt Ryan is back for the Falcons just in time for this NFC South battle. It hasn't made a lot of difference for the Falcons this season, as they're just 1-7 SU. However, their defense has been horrific, allowing 20 or more points in all eight contests, including 27 or more in each of the past four. Both teams are coming off the bye, and the over is 9-4 in Atlanta's past 13 off a bye, while the over is 10-3 in the past 13 for New Orleans following a rest. In the past six games at home following a bye, the Saints have averaged 43.1 PPG with the over cashing in six in a row and the Saints covering each outing with wins by an average of 16 PPG. In this series, however, the under is 3-1 in the past four meetings, including 2-0 in New Orleans.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals actually played the Ravens tough in the first meeting on Oct. 13, falling 23-17 in an 'under' result as Cincinnati got the late backdoor on a rushing touchdown by QB Andy Dalton. The 'Red Rifle' isn't coming through that door this week, as QB Ryan Finley makes his first NFL start, and he has had two weeks to prepare with the Bengals coming off a bye. Matt Blunt discusses this game in even further detail in his Hot or Not Report - Week 10. The total is down to 44.5 from an open of 46.5.

Miami at Indianapolis (4:05 p.m. ET): The Dolphins have resembled an NFL-caliber team in the past four games, averaging 19.3 PPG across the past four games on offense after averaging just 6.5 PPG in the first four. Defensively, they have even shown some improvement, allowing just 23.4 PPG in the past four after yielding 40.5 PPG in the first four. They might catch a break, as QB Jacoby Brissett's (knee) injury has him listed as 'questionable' for Sunday. If Brissett doesn't play, QB Brian Hoyer is a downgrade, but not much. He tossed three TDs in Brissett's stead last week. The Colts offense has posted 27, 24, 30 and 15 in four home games, hitting the over three times.

Under the Lights

Minnesota at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football tussle has inched up from 47 to 48, although trends are leaning under. That's a surprising move considering both sides rank in the Top 10 in total defense and scoring defense. The under is 9-2 in Minnesota's past 11 against NFC opponents, and 6-2 in their past eight on the road. Remember, the Vikings are coming off a loss, and they have held opponents to 14 and 10 points following setbacks. For Dallas, it's all over all the time, hitting in seven of their past nine against the NFC, and 8-3 in the past 11 overall.

Seattle at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The total has moved from 45 to 47 for this highly-anticipated Monday nighter and NFC West showdown. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 12.8 PPG, but they haven't exactly faced a who's who of quarterbacks. QB Russell Wilson is the league's best passing quarterback this season, posting a 118.2 QB rating. If you bet the trends in this series, you lean under based on the past five of seven at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara going under. However, the over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings overall in this series.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 10
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Bills at Browns (-3, 40) – 1:00 PM EST
Heading into this season, the expectation was Cleveland would be 6-2 through eight games and Buffalo could be 2-6. However, those predictions were off-base as the Bills (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) have eyes on a Wild Card berth after limiting their sixth opponent to fewer than 17 points in last Sunday’s 24-9 rout of the Redskins. Buffalo cashed as 10 ½-point favorites, marking its first cover in the chalk role since Week 2. The Bills have taken care of their business away from Orchard Park this season by compiling a 3-0 SU/ATS road record, while cashing the UNDER in all three victories.

The Browns (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) have dug themselves a major hole halfway through the season as Cleveland lost its fourth straight game in last Sunday’s 24-19 defeat at Denver as four-point favorites. The Cleveland offense has been held to fewer than 20 points in five of eight games, while the Browns are still seeking their first home victory of 2019. Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield didn’t throw an interception in a game for the first time this season, but the top pick of the 2018 draft hasn’t posted more than one touchdown pass in a game in 2019.

Buffalo has put together a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark in the underdog role this season, while covering in five of the last six opportunities when receiving points since 2018. The Browns are expected to get a boost offensively as running back Kareem Hunt will see his first action of the season following an eight-game suspension. The Bills have captured the last two meetings with the Browns in 2014 and 2016, while Buffalo makes its first visit to Cleveland since 2013.

Best Bet: Browns 20, Bills 19

Panthers at Packers (-4 ½, 47) – 4:25 PM EST
Following its worst performance of the season in a 51-13 drubbing at undefeated San Francisco, the Panthers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) rebounded nicely in last Sunday’s 30-20 home victory over the Titans. The final score was a bit misleading as Carolina jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead, while the Panthers built a commanding 30-17 advantage on Christian McCaffrey’s third touchdown of the game. McCaffrey has reached the end zone in six consecutive games, while the Panthers improved to 5-1 SU/ATS with Kyle Allen starting at quarterback.

The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) put together their worst overall effort of the season in last week’s 26-11 setback to the Chargers. Green Bay didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, but the Packers already trailed at that point, 26-3. It was ugly all around for the Pack as Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-low 161 yards, while Green Bay rushed for 45 yards. The Packers have won four of five games at Lambeau Field this season, as Green Bay tries to improve on a 9-3-1 home mark since the start of 2018.

Carolina has hit the OVER in four consecutive games, as the Panthers have topped the 40-point mark in four of six contests started by Allen. The Panthers have captured the last two meetings with the Packers since 2015, while Carolina is visiting Lambeau Field for the first time since a 38-17 defeat in 2014.

Best Bet: Packers 28, Panthers 20

Rams (-4, 43) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST
Los Angeles (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) is back from the bye week after taking care of winless Cincinnati in London, 24-10 as 12-point favorites. The Rams have fixed their defensive woes since allowing a combined 85 points in a two-week stretch to Tampa Bay and Seattle as Los Angeles has yielded a total of 40 points the past three contests. Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have posted an incredible 17-4 road record, including a perfect 5-0 away mark against AFC foes.

Following a rough 0-3 start, the Steelers (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) have come back to life by winning four of the last five games. Although two of those victories came against teams with a combined one win (Miami and Cincinnati), Pittsburgh knocked off the Chargers on the road, while edging the Colts last Sunday, 26-24. The Steelers have lit up the Heinz Field scoreboard this season by scoring 26, 27, 23, 27, and 26 points in five home games.

Pittsburgh has excelled in the underdog role since getting thumped at New England in the season opener by compiling a 3-0 ATS mark when receiving points, while going 5-1 ATS overall the last six games. The Rams are 10-1 the last three seasons against interconference opponents as the lone loss came in last season’s Super Bowl to the Patriots.

Best Bet: Rams 30, Steelers 21

BEST TOTAL PLAY
Under 43 ½ - Dolphins at Colts

Miami has played much better the last few weeks in spite of picking up only its first win of the season last Sunday against the Jets. The Dolphins travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts, who will start Brian Hoyer at quarterback in place of the injured Jacoby Brissett. The Colts have cashed the OVER in three of four games at Lucas Oil Stadium, while limiting three of their past four opponents to one offensive touchdown. Miami’s second half struggles have continued by posting a grand total of 12 points in the last three games after halftime.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

You wouldn’t think a team laying two touchdowns that has won six straight games is trap material, but the Saints are in their heavy favorite position on Sunday against the rival Falcons. Atlanta has been a train wreck this season at 1-7, while its defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL. Both these teams are off the bye, which could benefit the struggling Falcons, while the streaking Saints need to reset their focus. The Falcons have split their last four visits to New Orleans and will get Matt Ryan back in the lineup after missing the Seattle loss two weeks ago with an ankle injury.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

To no one’s surprise, the Chiefs moved from a 3 ½-point favorite last Sunday night at Tennessee up to a six-point favorite when news came out that Patrick Mahomes will return to the Kansas City lineup. Last season’s MVP has missed the last two games with a dislocated kneecap sustained in the Week 7 victory at Denver, as the Chiefs are fresh off a last-second victory at Minnesota. The Titans haven’t been listed as a home underdog this season, while the Chiefs own a perfect 4-0 record away from Arrowhead Stadium.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Buccaneers are playing their first game at Raymond James Stadium since Week 3 against the Giants. Tampa Bay has spent the last five games on the road, including a “home” matchup with Carolina in London last month. The Bucs host the Cardinals as Tampa Bay last won at Raymond James in Week 13 of last season against the Panthers. Arizona has been one of the more surprising teams in the league as the Cardinals have posted a solid 6-2 ATS mark in the underdog role.

[Udog]

SNF - Vikings at Cowboys
Matt Blunt

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It's hard to deny that last week's SNF game between the Patriots and Ravens had a playoff-like feel to it, as Baltimore was well prepared from the get-go and made a point to be the first NFL team to knock off New England since last December. More importantly though, that game cashed the 'over' play with relative ease, as it's now three straight weeks of essentially no doubt winners for this piece. You never want to get too cocky in your approach though as that's typically when the bounces start going against you.

Speaking of that, this week's SNF game features the Dallas Cowboys in prime time for the second straight week, as apparently the DB's on the Cowboys feel like their teammates on the special teams units need all the reps they can get. For someone like myself who was holding an 'under' ticket on MNF, to see that strip sack fumble scoop and score with less then 30 seconds was crushing. Had the Dallas DB simply fallen on the ball, it would have been one knee and the game was over.

Instead, he subjected his teammates (and himself) to run nearly the length of the field for the TD (and celebration) forced the extra point team to go out there and taken another hit, and the same with the kickoff team as well. Obviously it is what it is, but when you are on the wrong side of those bounces you think of things in that light and how the guy should have done something differently. But at the same time, him having a scoop and score TD in his stats – no matter the time of game – is something that can help him earn a few more dollars on a potential next contract so it's important to look at both sides of the coin, and as I like to say, “context matters.”

This week the Cowboys are back at home and hosting a Minnesota team that coughed up a late lead in KC last week. The Vikings have to still be having some buyer's remorse feelings with QB Kirk Cousins and his passing ability, but at 6-3 SU everything's still out in front of him. Can he and his teammates bounce back yet again – they are 2-0 SU and ATS when coming off a SU loss this year – or will the Cowboys keep on cashing tickets in their third straight prime time appearance?

Total Talk

This number has held steady at it's opening status of 48 all week, and to me, there isn't really a discernible way to approach this total from either perspective. Yes, going 'over' the total has worked out for these SNF games the past two weeks after the run of 'unders' we had to start the year, but that also doesn't mean we are going to get a nice streak of 'overs' going forward either.

And while the scoop and score late TD by Dallas last week was painful for 'under' bettors like myself, truth be told the 'over' in that game was the right side to be on. There were missed FG's early, both teams settled for too many FG's (especially New York) early, and it really was an up-and-down game for the entirety. Obviously Minnesota's defense brings much more resistance to this game then what the Giants defense has, and you've got to take that into consideration, but with Dallas putting up 37 points in consecutive weeks, do they really cool off that much? Yes, those point totals by the Cowboys were largely aided by turnovers and that's unlikely to continue at a similar pace, and coming off two consecutive division games should dull the intensity from the Dallas perspective, but both sides have cashed 'over' tickets in three of their last four games respectively as well.

Generally speaking, when both sides are coming off the same total result like Minnesota and Dallas are with 'overs' this week, I do like to look the other way, and if forced to make a play on this total, it would be on the low side of this total. And while it's never good to let past results creep into influencing your future bets, there probably is some residue left on my brain from the way last week's 'under' in the Dallas game finished in terms of me wanting to pull the trigger on it again this week. That would be the only way I'd look on this total, but sometimes a “bet saved is as good as money made,” and passing on this total is the end result.

Side Spiel

Just like the total, this point spread has held steady at it's original number of Dallas (-3) for the majority of the week. You do tend to hear/read more support for the Vikings as there are plenty in the industry who like to quote Minnesota's ATS record in the Mike Zimmer era (57-34-1 ATS) and as an underdog (22-14 ATS). Both of those numbers sit at over a 60% cash rate and that's definitely better then good in this business. Zimmer's Vikings have not failed to cover the number three times in a row during the regular season since late-October through early-November of 2016, and coming off two failed covers, that does appear to make sense to some degree here.

Adding support to that argument is the case that Dallas is off of two consecutive division games which is always theorized as a potential 'letdown' spot, and Dallas just continues to have plenty of detractors in general. A very soft schedule plays into that as the only winning teams currently that they've faced this year are New Orleans, Green Bay, and Philly, and the Cowboys went 1-2 SU and ATS in those games respectively. So that's the general consensus it seems in the market this week that Dallas is in another great spot to be bet against, but I'm not so sure that's the case.

For one, while those same Zimmer supporters are likely to fall on the side of ripping/questioning Dallas HC Jason Garrett's skills at his job – which at times do deserve to be questioned – I believe they are missing a huge chunk of the bigger picture in terms of how they view Zimmer. That's because for years I've always had a tough time backing any coach that comes from the Marvin Lewis coaching tree.

Lewis was a guy in Cincinnati who was as predictable as they come in offensive play calling – run or take a deep shot on 1st down, run on 2nd down, and then throw it over the middle to possession receiver on 3rd and medium/long – and always took the conservative approach when in doubt. It's why his Bengals teams were almost always doomed to mediocrity, and those coaches that stem from his coaching tree have similar tendencies. Minnesota falls right into that category this year, as they are so reliant on the success of RB like Dalvin Cook – who the Chiefs essentially sold out to stop last week.

For whatever reason, Marvin Lewis disciples tend to always be great interviewers in that they get the head coaching jobs, but turn out to be suspect head coaches to say the least. The list of coaches on Marvin's coaching tree includes the already fired Jay Gruden (Washington), Hue Jackson, Vance Joseph, Mike Zimmer, and the Vikings head coach before Zimmer in Leslie Frazier.

I'm not sure why the Vikings kept going back to the Bengals coordinator well, but here they are, and like all those years where Marvin kept his Bengals job for far too long (he should have been let go amid the early stages of all those consecutive playoff losses), Zimmer's done just enough in Minnesota to keep his job for another year seemingly every season so far.

Zimmer's doing his best to break away from this disastrous coaching tree with those long term ATS results, and from a market perspective you can't argue with those long term numbers. But is ATS record when catching 3 points or less is 0-4 SU and ATS since the beginning of last year – the start of the Kirk Cousins era - as just like his mentor Marvin Lewis, he can't win the 'big' or close games.

Dallas may have their own issues with Garrett and what he brings to the table, but context always matters, and everyone just prefers to overlook Zimmer and the Vikings recent history in these projected close games to opt for the overall ATS results as support. Remember, during those playoff seasons for Marvin Lewis' Bengals, Cincinnati always took care of business against the teams they should have, and could never get over the hump against equal or better competition like the Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chargers etc. And you could say that's been the case for all of those coaches that stem from the Lewis coaching tree. Win the games you are supposed to, and choke in the games that are coin flips.

In the end, Zimmer is no different, and Minnesota ranks 31st in the league in passing completions per game (19.3). The only team that's worse then that are the Washington Redskins, who wouldn't you know it, started the year with the aforementioned Lewis disciple Jay Gruden. Are you starting to see the pattern yet?

Final Thoughts

Expressions like “the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree” always have some element of truth to them even when misapplied. That's how I view Mike Zimmer and his coaching prowess, and I just don't see how you can back the Vikings against any team that's got a winning record if they aren't catching upwards of +4.5 points or more. Bettors will comment on how soft the Cowboys schedule has been, but when Minnesota's got wins over Atlanta, Oakland, NY Giants, Philly, Detroit, and Washington, how much better is there resume really? My thoughts on Philly were well laid out a few weeks ago when Dallas last had a SNF game, and every other team there has a losing (or .500) record currently as well.

I don't know what it is about the Cowboys this year in that it's seemingly impossible for them to earn a level of respect from the markets they definitely deserve. Maybe it's that loss to the Jets that still sticks out in everyone's mind that's leaving plenty of residue on their thought process in terms of even considering backing the Cowboys. Who knows? But I'll gladly take advantage of that perception when it fits.

But just like two weeks ago when the Cowboys were laying this number at home against the Eagles, this number against the Vikings is still rather short. The Cowboys defense should be able to gear up to eliminate RB Dalvin Cook from finding significant success like the Chiefs did, and go on to win this game with relative ease like they did vs Philly. Maybe then we will start to see Dallas getting some respect from more in this industry going forward.

Best Bet: Cowboys -3

[Udog]

NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes sat out two games after dislocating his knee, but he's back this week at Tennessee. The midweek news that he'd likely play moved the line from Chiefs -4 to -6.5.

NFL Week 10 will apparently include the playmaking stylings of one Patrick Mahomes. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: After suffering a dislocated kneecap in a Week 7 win at Denver, Mahomes missed the last two games, and Kansas City split those two contests. He’s back for Sunday’s game at Tennessee. “Mahomes is playing, so we actually went up to -6.5 on the Chiefs,” Osterman told Covers, noting the line opened -3.5, went to 4 early in the week, then made the big jump once it was clear Mahomes would return. “He’s worth more than the 2.5-point move, but the line was already shaded that way because he was practicing.”

The line ticked down to 6 on Friday afternoon, and Osterman isn’t sure if the public can take it to 7. “There’s a chance the Chiefs get to -7, but I doubt it. There will be enough takers at 7 to keep it at 6.5.”

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Running back David Johnson (ankle/back) will return at Tampa Bay after missing two games. But that wasn’t a needle-mover, since the Cards acquired Kenyan Drake from Miami last month. “No move for Johnson.” Arizona is a 5-point underdog, with the total at 52.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Quarterback Matt Ryan (ankle) returns after missing a Week 8 loss to Seattle, then getting the benefit of the bye week. But he was expected back at New Orleans. “The line would be over Saints -14 if he wasn’t playing.” The Falcons are +13.5, with a total of 51.5.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Quarterback Lamar Jackson was under the weather midweek, but he practiced Friday and expects to play at Cincinnati. “This game might drop a couple of points if he didn’t play, but nothing too crazy.” The Ravens are -10.5, with a total of 44.5.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Quarterback Jacoby Brissett got knocked out last week’s game at Pittsburgh with a knee injury, and he’s questionable this week against Miami in what will apparently be a game-time decision. “If Brissett plays, I would expect this line to go up by about a point to a point-and-a-half.” The Colts are -11.5, down from the opener of -13, with a total of 44.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable at home against the Rams, due to a toe injury. Osterman said if Schuster plays, it’d be worth a half-point. The Steelers are 4-point pups, with a total of 43.5.

DALLAS COWBOYS: Wideout Amari Cooper (ankle/knee) is questionable for the Sunday nighter against visiting Minnesota. That’s another one that would be worth a half-point, Osterman said. The Cowboys are laying 3, with a total of 48.


Weather Watch

CAROLINA AT GREEN BAY: Sunday’s high is only in the mid-30s, and this is among the later kickoffs at 4:25 p.m. ET, about an hour before sunset. Along with winds out of the north at 11 mph, much of this game will likely be played below 30 degrees. “The total has started to creep down. We opened 48, down to 47.”

KANSAS CITY AT TENNESSEE: The weather should generally be mild, but there could be a little wind. “The total has come up some, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come down a little bit before kickoff.” The total opened at 48.5 and climbed to 49.5.

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: It’ll be cloudy, with wind blowing in the mid-teens. But so far, that’s led to no adjustments, with the Browns -3 and a total of 40.
Pros vs. Joes

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: The Browns opened -2.5 Sunday and have been at -3 since Monday night. “The public has come in on the Bills, and the sharps are all over the Browns.”


Reverse Line Moves

ARIZONA AT TAMPA BAY: “We’re seeing money come in on Tampa Bay, but we’ve gone from Bucs -5.5 to -5.” In fact, the Buccaneers spent a couple days midweek at -4.5.

DETROIT AT CHICAGO: “The Bears opened -3.5, and we’re down to -2.5 (-120), but we haven’t really seen much Lions support to back up that move.”

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: Along with it pitting the sharps against the public, this game went from Browns -2.5 to -3, despite more money showing on the Bills.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

Totals...................14-12-0..........53.84%..........+4.00


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


Totals......................7 - 3............+18.50.............3 - 7...............-23.50............-4.00


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NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 10 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Cardinals +4.5 (794)

5) Bills +3 (848)

4) Cowboys -3 (863)

3) Rams -3.5 (1,083)

2) Seahawks +6.5 (1,115)

1) Chiefs -3.5 (1,750)

2019 record: 25-27-2

Quote of the Day
”We’ve finally got the tools that we need to beat those guys. To have a championship team, you’ve got to have a championship quarterback.”
LSU football coach Ed Orgeron

Sunday’s quiz
Who was LSU’s football coach the last time they beat Alabama?

Saturday’s quiz
Bobby Hurley played most of his NBA career (242 of 269 games) for the Sacramento Kings.

Friday’s quiz
Rich Gannon was the Raiders’ QB the last time they played in a Super Bowl.

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Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..

13) LSU 46, Alabama 41:
— LSU scored a total of 10 points against Alabama the last three YEARS; they led this game 33-13 at halftime.
— This is LSU’s first win over the Crimson Tide since 2011.
— LSU’s offensive coordinator Joe Brady will be a head coach SOMEWHERE very soon, whether it be in college or the NFL. He has done an amazing job with the Tigers’ offense.

83-year old John Robinson, the highly successful USC/Rams’ coach, is a consultant with the LSU program; he knows Ed Orgeron from when Orgeron worked at USC- Robinson’s wife is from New Orleans. Was good to see coach Robinson smiling; was lucky enough to meet him for a few minutes at Rams’ training camp in 1986— good guy.

12) Alabama QB Tagovailoa was 21-40/418 with four passing TD’s despite his mobility being hampered by an injured leg.

Can a one-loss Alabama team that won’t be in the SEC title game make the 4-team national playoff? Gonna be lot of arguing about that one.

11) Oklahoma 42, Iowa State 41— Sooners led 35-14 at halftime, but Cyclones stormed back, scored a TD with 0:24 left and went for 2 points and the lead instead of kicking a tying PAT, which re-ignites a pet peeve of mine.

— Recruiting is the lifeblood of college sports.
— You’re the underdog and you’re playing well against a national power.
— The game is on national TV.
— Recruits are at home watching this game, because it is on national TV.

— You keep this game going as long as you can, so recruits can learn to like you.
— The pressure to win this game was all on Oklahoma.
— Spunky underdogs are heroic, and Iowa State was spunky in this game.
— If your QB is a great runner, I’d be more open to going for the two points.

10) Baylor 29, TCU 23 OT— There were no touchdowns scored in regulation time; Horned Frogs led 9-0 at halftime, but Baylor kicked a 51-yard FG with 0:36 left, then won the game in the third OT.

Fun game to watch; tough game to lose. Baylor is 9-0; four of the Bears’ six Big X wins were by 3 or fewer points, or in OT. TCU is 0-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.

9) Minnesota 31, Penn State 26— Minnesota is 9-0 for the first time since 1904; they averaged 16.95 yards every time they threw the ball in this game. USC and Florida State jobs are open, and coach PJ Fleck signed a long-term contract extension with the Golden Gophers? Why?

Fleck and his wife have four kids; do these kids not like warm weather? None of my business, but walking on the beach seems like a hell of a lot more fun than making snowmen, and it is a lot easier to recruit ballplayers in Florida/California than it is in Minnesota.

8) Western Kentucky 45, Arkansas 19— WKU’s QB Ty Storey started nine games for Arkansas LY, then transferred to WKU because he didn’t think he would start for the Razorbacks this year. Storey, a 6-2 senior from Charleston, Arkansas, was 22-32/219 passing, as the Hilltoppers improved to 6-4.

7) Football upsets:
— Tulsa (+16.5) 34, Central Florida 31
— Illinois (+15) 37, Michigan State 34
— California (+7.5) 33, Washington State 20
— Appalachian State (+7) 20, South Carolina 15
— Miami OH (+7) 24, Ohio U 21
— Minnesota (+6.5) 31, Penn State 26
— LSU (+6.5) 46, Alabama 41

6) Florida State 38, Boston College 31— BC had 31 first downs, converted 14-20 third down plays and still lost; FSU scored four TD’s, three on plays of 60+ yards, the 4th one on a 26-yard run. Both teams need another win to go bowling.

5) Illinois 37, Michigan State 34— Spartans led 31-10 in 4th quarter, but Illini stormed back with three TD’s, missing tying PAT with 4:53 left, then scoring winning TD with 0:05 left. Illinois is bowl eligible for first time under Lovie Smith.

4) Basketball upsets:
— Nicholls State 75, Pitt 70
— Southern Utah 79, Nebraska 78 OT

3) SMU 59, East Carolina 51— Not often you give up 51 points and win, but the Mustangs did and now they’re 9-1.

ECU’s WR Tyler Sneed caught 19 balls for 240 yards; ECU QB Holton Ahlers was 32-42/498 passing with six TD passes and his team lost.

2) SEC likes to promote itself as the #1 college football league in the country; “….it just means more.” was their slogan for a while, and while they may be mostly right, check out these two scores before crowning the SEC this year’s King of the Hill:

— Western Kentucky 45, Arkansas 19
— Appalachian State 20, South Carolina 15

1) LSU goes to Ole Miss next week, Minnesota goes to Iowa. Those two teams were so happy wth their wins Saturday, but next week they’ve got huge trap games, especially the Golden Gophers.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


COOK TO SHOWCASE IN NFC BATTLE

The Minnesota Vikings will be without receiver Adam Thielen for their Sunday night game in Dallas. This could mean the league’s third-heaviest rushing team (32 rushes per game) may lean on Dalvin Cook even more against the Cowboys middle-of-the-pack rush defense.

Cook is averaging 23 rushes a game over his last three games and ran 23 times for 98 yards and had six targets in the only other game that Thielen sat out this year. Dallas has held teams to just 24 rushes per game but has only seen one top-10 DVOA rush offense this year.

In a game that has massive playoff implications, we expect the Vikings to do what they do best which is pound the ball. Take Cooks’ Over 18.5 rushing attempts.


PAIR OF GB TDS

Yesterday, we wrote about the possibility of big points being scored at Lambeau field in Sunday’s Panthers/Packers game. Today, is a reminder to take advantage of a generous Carolina rushing defense as they have allowed nine rushing TDs over their last three weeks. They have also allowed receiving touchdowns to running backs in back-to-back weeks.

Packers running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are great touchdown plays as at least one of them has scored in every game since Week 2 and they have both scored in the same game in two of their last four games. Jones hasn’t had a rushing TD since Week 5, but has hauled in three TD passes since Week 7.

Jones is still seeing roughly 15 percent more snaps than Williams per game, but Williams has received 10 red zone touches to Jones’ seven since Week 6 making Williams the more valuable of the two as he has also scored a TD in four straight games.

We are doubling down and taking the Williams AND Jones anytime TD.


SAMUELS A TARGET MONSTER

The latest news on the Pittsburgh Steelers’ backfield is that James Conner and Benny Snell are out for the Week 10 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. This leaves early-down back Trey Edmunds who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday but practice Friday and Jaylen Samuels who led all running backs and was fifth overall in Week 9 with 13 targets.

Pittsburgh receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is also a game-time decision for the Sunday afternoon matchup and if he were to sit, that would make Samuels the No.1 receiving option for QB Mason Rudolph.

We like Samuels' Over receptions on any total below six as the Rams allow the seventh fewest passing yards to RBs which scares us on the RB’s yardage total.


COLTS CAN’T SLEEP ON DOLPHINS

Who is going to score for the Indianapolis Colts? That is a question we have been asking ourselves this week after checking players’ availability for Sunday’s game against the recently unstoppable Miami Dolphins.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett isn’t a lock to play Sunday and is a game-time decision as of Friday night. Even if he does dress, he will be without top receivers T.Y Hilton and Paris Campbell. The Colt’s game plan will probably feature a heavy dose of Marlon Mack, especially if 34-year-old QB Brian Hoyer takes the snaps again.

The Dolphins’ defense has held opposing offenses to under 29 points in three of their last four games and have played competitively for the past month. Miami is allowing the 17th-least total yards since Week 7 which is an incredible improvement considering they are still the worst DVOA defense.

We see the Colts struggling to hit 29 points and are looking to play the Under team total of 28.5.


JACKSON’S RIDICULOUS RUSHING TOTAL

Last week was a great example of the closing line not always being the worst number to bet on. We had Lamar Jackson Over at an opening line of 61.5 rushing yards and that number fell to 58.5 right before kickoff on Sunday night. So you know where this is going, right? Jackson moonwalked to 61 yards and handed us the L. We want to fade him this week, but the Cincinnati Bengals can't even come close to containing him.

Just check out these numbers in his two starts against his AFC North rivals: 19 rushes, 152 yards, TD (Week 6); 26 rushes, 119 yards (Week 10, 2018). Those are his third-most and most rushing yards in a game over his career. Lamar has amassed 1,193 rushing yards over his 15 regular-season starts and has 271 yards versus the Bengals in two games, or 23 percent of his total rushing yards in 12 percent of his games played.

Jackson is 5-0 O/U on his rushing total if you got the 58.5 last week. We are hitting the Over on his 75.5 rushing yards as the books are really pushing his number. Maybe we will look to fade next week, but for now, the matchup is in the Over’s favor.


SELLING THE SACK STREAK

Our sack streak has hit four straight games as we try to find the game of the week that will offer the most quarterback takedowns. This week we set our sights on the state of Nashville where the Titans will host the recuperated Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs pass rush has taken over since Week 7 as they have totaled 15 sacks. They will get to tee off on the Titans' 31st ranked offensive line and Ryan Tannehill who is getting sacked once every 8.35 pass attempts.

The Titans defensive line is no cakewalk, either. They are averaging just under 3 sacks a game and will face a limited Mahomes who had been getting sacked once every 17 pass attempts in the three games before going down with a knee injury. The KC O-line also allowed Matt Moore to get sacked five times in Week 9.

The line will most likely be set at 6.5 which is still a number that we are confident taking the Over on.


CHEERING FOR OFFENSE

Four teams are allowing four or more touchdowns a game over the last three weeks: the Oakland Raiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Detroit Lions and the Carolina Panthers. Looking on the offensive side of things, we see that six teams have averaged over three TDs a game over that same three-game stretch: the Detroit Lions, the Baltimore Ravens, the Dallas Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings, the Oakland Raiders, the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers.

If we are looking to put our money on Over total touchdowns, common sense would push us to the Lions, but facing Mitch “turn off the TVs” Trubisky is a little risky at 4.5 TDs.

We like the Panthers at Packers matchup much better as Aaron Rodgers’ offense will look to bounce back in Lambeau after last week’s dud. The Panthers have allowed nine rushing TDs in their last three in what looks like a great matchup for Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams and maybe worth sprinkling anytime TDs on both of them.

The Panthers’ road games have not seen many field goals, especially recently. Carolina’s last three road games have had 22 total TDs scored with all three games getting at least seven. That includes games that were quarterbacked by Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston.

The last game in Lambeau yielded nine total touchdowns and the cheese factory has produced 30 total TDs in five games this year. Take the Over 5.5 total TDs scored for plus money and sit back and cheer on both offenses.


MONDAY NIGHT 1Q PLAY

Don’t have time to watch the whole game but want some action? We got you, fam. No home team this week is scoring more points in the first quarter than the San Francisco 49ers. Jimmy’s boys are scoring nearly 10 points in the first 15 at Levi’s Stadium and have seen 31 total points scored in the first quarter over their last two home matches.

They will face the league’s 27th ranked DVOA defense in primetime on Monday night in the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks have also seen plenty of early action. Most recently, 21 points in the first quarter last week against the Bucs.

Get on the Over 7.5 points for the first quarter and enjoy the MVP frontrunner taking on the league’s only undefeated team.


MAKING MONTY MOVES

David Montgomery has solidified his spot atop the Chicago Bears RB depth chart. The rookie runner has averaged 73 percent of the snap share over the last two weeks as Tarik Cohen has seen just 33 of 127 snaps (26%).

The big rise of his snap count has a lot to do with pass-catching ability. Monty has nine targets for seven catches and 48 yards since Week 8. The nine targets may indicate where Matt Nagy’s play-calling is headed as Montgomery had seen just 2.5 targets a game in Weeks 1 through 7.

On Sunday, the Bears will face a Detroit Lions defense that is surrendering the third-most receiving yards to running backs this year at 59.6 yards per game on eight catches. Saquon Barkley hit the Lions for 8-78-1 in Week 8 and they have also given up at least 25 yards receiving to Jamaal Williams, Darrel Williams, LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler and David Johnson.

Get on Montgomery’s Over 22.5 receiving yards as Mitch Trubisky uses his check-down option all game long.

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Sunday's Essentials - Week 10
November 10, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Chiefs at Titans (-6.5/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Patrick Mahomes is set to return and will have the doctor with him on the offensive line. Laurent Duvernay-Tarif is back from an ankle sprain and there’s hope that defensive end Frank Clark will play, so the Chiefs are definitely getting healthier and will have overcome a really dangerous point in the season if things stabilize going forward. Holding off the Vikings last week was crucial, especially when you consider Oakland’s success on Thursday night. Mahomes will look to hit the ground running against a pass defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in yards allowed and come off surrendering a season-high 30 points to Carolina. With a bye on deck, it’s worth wondering if this team is running on fumes given the late bye coming up next week.

Tennessee is down WR Corey Davis and TE Delanie Walker, so A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith will be asked to step up. Center Ben Jones has cleared concussion protocol and will play. The defense is down DT Jurrell Casey, LB Jayon Brown and corner Malcolm Butler, who broke his wrist in the Titans’ loss to the Panthers. Expect a big second half from this group once the coaching staff figures out where to attack a depleted secondary since having to account for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is a puzzle that doesn’t really have a solution. It’s set to be a sunny day in Nashville, so conditions should be favorable for Mahomes to flourish in his return and Ryan Tannehill to try and match him as he looks to stay unbeaten in home starts.

Bills at Browns (-3/41), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Last week was definitely rock-bottom for Cleveland, which expected to go out to Denver and beat a first-time starting quarterback in order to spark a resurgence but were instead handed another heartbreaking loss. The Browns now carry a four-game losing streak into this one and realistically have no room for error if they’re going to reach their preseason goal of making the playoffs. First-year head coach Freddie Kitchens has proved inept in his in-game decision-making, so don’t look for Cleveland fans to let this team off the hook if it gets down early, which makes this a situation where being at home ends up being a disadvantage. Both of the Browns’ wins this season have come on the road against the Jets and Ravens.

Buffalo is perfect on the road thus far and visits Miami next week, so they can really set themselves up to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East instead of just rolling over after the halfway point and chasing the wild card. Baker Mayfield will have to deal with a secondary that should have corner Kevin Johnson and safety Kurt Coleman in play with both cleared to take the field next to Tre-Davious White, one of the league’s top DBs. Josh Allen may be able to take advantage of a Browns’ secondary that could be missing free safety Damarious Randall, who may be held out with a hamstring issue. Wind gusts that could reach 20 mile per hours will make it feel like temperatures are in the high 30s.

Cardinals at Bucs (-5.5/52), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Bruce Arians has downplayed facing the Cardinals, and outside of squaring off with Larry Fitzgerald and a few other holdovers, the nature of the league featuring so much turnover makes it a little easier than it would be squaring off against former employers in other sports. The Bucs aren’t going to make the playoffs, so this is all about continuing to gain trust in the offense and Jameis Winston against a secondary featuring Patrick Peterson and a defense that has posted 18 sacks and will be looking to add to Tampa Bay’s league-high 18 giveaways.

Winston has been hit-or-miss all season due to his propensity for miscues but he has thrown for at least 301 yards in five of his last six outings but has fumbled in four straight. After seven interceptions in a two-game span, he wasn’t picked off in last weekend’s OT loss in Seattle and will have tight end O.J. Howard back as another receiving option after he’s ready to return from a hamstring issue. The Bucs will face rookie Kyler Murray without DE Carl Nassib, LB Anthony Nelson and CB Carlton Davis. They’ll have to deal with RB David Johnson, who now joins forces with Kenyan Drake to suddenly give Arizona its most dynamic look yet. Clear conditions and temperatures in the 80s await in Central Florida.

Giants (-3/44.5) at Jets, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Outside of New York, no one really cares about determining which of these bad football teams is less terrible but rest assured bragging rights do play a large role here. These teams don’t share a training facility, but they do inhabit the same stadium and compete for the same space in the tabloids. Nobody wants to be the team mocked on Monday morning. The fact both have young quarterbacks that the franchises view as the future at the position for the next decade makes it compelling to see whether Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones can snap out of their recent funk. Darnold has developed an affinity for throwing the ball to the other team while Jones has a fumbling problem, so the headlines have written themselves of late.

The Giants come into this one without WR Sterling Shepard (concussion) and TE Evan Engram (foot), so look for rookie Darius Slayton to continue serving a larger role next to Golden Tate. The Jets will have Le’Veon Bell available despite listing him as questionable with ankle and knee ailments, so he’s likely in line for a workhorse role. Tight end Chris Herndon is going to play too, while tackle Kelvin Beachum is also back. Both teams are going to missing starting centers Ryan Kalil and Jon Halapio, further adding to the potential chaos. Inclement weather won’t pile on since clear conditions and light winds are expected on a 50-degree day at Met Life Stadium.

Lions at Bears (-6.5/47.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Matthew Stafford was advised not to risk playing through a back issue, so this must-win game for both teams now decisively favors host Chicago and the line has moved four points on Sunday morning, shifting from 2.5 to 6.5 with backup Jeff Driskel set to make his first start with the Lions. The former Bengals backup is among the NFL’s speediest quarterbacks but has had accuracy issues keep him from securing a full-time starting job. He’ll have a pair of terrific receivers in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to work with but will be facing a talented defensive backfield and a Bears defense that will be looking to come after Driskel and take advantage of a depleted running back corps. Tight end T.J. Hockenson could have a solid day as a safety valve Driskel will have to use often. The Bears are hoping Mitchell Trubisky can straighten out his own accuracy issues to make better use of Allen Robinson, who had a terribly unproductive day last time out and will now be matched up against Darius Slay. Wind gusts of 15-17 miles per hour will make passing even more difficult for Driskel and Trubisky, so this could be a game where we see both scrambling often.

Dolphins at Colts (-10.5/43.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: With Jacoby Brissett ruled out due to a knee injury, the Colts will turn to Brian Hoyer to try and stay afloat after he put them in position to win in Pittsburgh last week before an Adam Vinatieri miss at the gun. Chad Kelly will back up Hoyer, who is 16-21 in his career as a starter and is playing with his seventh team in 11 seasons. He’ll look to keep Miami’s modest streak at one game but won’t have the luxury of working with T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell, who have each been ruled out. Count on heavy use of Marlon Mack behind a big offensive line and perhaps a heightened role for tight end Eric Ebron, who has complained about his lack of use. Zach Pascal, Chester Rogers, rookie Ashton Dulin and the recently promoted Marcus Johnson will be Hoyer’s receivers.

Continuity isn’t a luxury the Dolphins bring to the table either. Ryan Fitzpatrick remains under center and has proven he gives Miami its best chance to win, but top WR Preston Williams was lost for the season last week and RB Mark Walton has been suspended for four games. Kelan Ballage is expected to get the bulk of the carries. Safety Reshad Jones has been ruled out, so the Dolphins’ secondary is definitely vulnerable since CB Xavien Howard was already shelved. After winning unexpectedly for the first time last week, it remains to be seen how invested Miami is to chase wins that would adversely affect its draft position.

Rams (-4/43.5)at Steelers, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Jared Goff will have to work without one of his top receivers since Brandin Cooks is still dealing with a concussion. That should mean increased targets for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, who was the league’s most productive wideout the last time L.A. took the field in blowing out the Bengals in London. Todd Gurley will have his backup Malcolm Brown back from an ankle injury, which means L.A. will have a loaded backfield in place since explosive rookie back Darrell Henderson looks better acclimated.

The Steelers are looking for Mason Rudolph to continue his steady improvement but won’t have the luxury of RB James Conner being out there for him to lean on due to a nagging shoulder injury. Jaylen Samuels and Trey Edmunds will handle the work, and you figure there should be a lot of it given the need to keep the ball away from the L.A. offense and the fact top WR Juju Smith-Schuster is nursing a toe injury. Rudolph has displayed good chemistry with rookie Diontae Johnson and college teammate James Washington, but they’ll be facing a secondary fortified by Jalen Ramsey. Guard Ramon Foster has been ruled out with a concussion, so the Steelers’ offensive line isn’t going to be intact. A rainy day in Pittsburgh shouldn’t affect things here since conditions are supposed to dry up by kickoff.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 10
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at NO 01:00 PM
O 51.5 *****

BUF at CLE 01:00 PM
BUF +3.0
U 42.0 *****

NYG at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +3.0 *****
U 43.0 *****

BAL at CIN 01:00 PM
CIN +10.5 *****
U 44.0 *****

DET at CHI 01:00 PM
DET +6.5 *****
U 38.0

KC at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN +6.0 *****
U 48.5 *****

ARI at TB 01:00 PM
ARI +5.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

AFTERNOON BEST BETS:


MIA at IND 04:05 PM
IND -11.0
U 43.5 *****

CAR at GB 04:25 PM
CAR +4.5 *****

LAR at PIT 04:25 PM
PIT +4.0 *****
O 43.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

MIN at DAL 08:20 PM

DAL -3.0 *****

U 48.0 *****