Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Panthers fire head coach Ron Rivera
December 3, 2019
By The Associated Press

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) The Ron Rivera era has come to an abrupt end in Carolina.

The Panthers fired their all-time winningest head coach with the team on a four-game losing streak and headed to its third non-playoff season in four years.

''I believe this is the best decision for the long-term success of our team,'' Panthers owner David Tepper said in a statement Tuesday. ''I have a great deal of respect for Ron and the contributions he has made to this franchise and to this community.''

Secondary coach Perry Fewell was been named interim head coach.

Offensive coordinator Norv Turner will transition to special assistant to the head coach, and quarterbacks coach Scott Turner will serve as offensive coordinator.

Tepper said he will begin a search for a new coach immediately.

Rivera was hired in 2011 and was 76-63-1 in the regular season and a 3-4 postseason mark. In nine seasons Rivera guided the team to a Super Bowl appearance, an NFC championship and three NFC South titles.

But the Panthers have fallen on hard times lately following injuries to quarterback Cam Newton the past two seasons.

The Panthers are 5-7 this season and are all but eliminated from playoff contention after a 29-21 loss to the Washington Redskins on Sunday at home.

When asked if he was worried about his future with the team on Sunday after his team surrendered a 14-0 lead to the Redskins, Rivera replied, ''I'm not worried about my future. I'm worried about this football team. We have a game coming up on Sunday'' at Atlanta.

They started this season 5-3. Last year the team was 6-2 but lost seven straight games and finished 7-9.

Since losing to the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50 four seasons ago, the Panthers are 29-31 and have not won a playoff game.

Rivera, 57, did not immediately return phone calls seeking comment from The Associated Press.

Rivera's firing might not be the only change coming.

Tepper, who bought the team in 2018, said long-term mediocrity is not an option for the Panthers.

''We are going to take a comprehensive and thorough review of our football operation to make sure we are structured for long-term sustained success,'' Tepper said. ''Our vision is to find the right mix of old-school discipline and toughness with modern and innovative processes. We will consider a wide range of football executives to complement our current football staff.''

Tepper said the team will hire an assistant general manager and vice president of football operations.

''We all must recognize that this is the first step in a process, but we are committed to building and maintaining a championship culture for our team and our fans,'' Tepper said.

Rivera was extremely well liked in the Panthers locker room, and he easily related to players having played nine seasons in the NFL for the Chicago Bears, winning a Super Bowl with Jim McMahon, Walter Payton and others in 1985.

Rivera is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year and likely won't have a problem landing a job next season.

As for what the move means for Newton remains to be seen given that Tepper has shown he's not afraid to make big changes.

The legacies of Rivera and Newton have always been intertwined as both came to the Panthers in 2011. Newton is coming off shoulder and foot injuries and the team could save $19 million under the salary cap if they release or trade him after the season.

Kyle Allen has filled in for Newton this season at quarterback and is 5-5 as a starter.

[StarDust Bum]

McManus furious he didn't get chance
December 3, 2019
By The Associated Press

DENVER (AP) Brandon McManus looked up and saw the bright orange streamers atop the goal posts hugging the yellow uprights in the north end zone. Perfect, he thought. No wind. Thirty degrees. One second before halftime.

This was the moment he'd waited for, a shot at history.

As he mapped out his steps for the 65-yard field goal attempt and a chance to break former teammate Matt Prater's NFL record of 64 yards set six years earlier, he heard hollering from his sideline.

Coach Vic Fangio had changed his mind.

McManus was being summoned off the field.

Furious, McManus stormed back to the bench, ripping off his helmet as he reached the sideline and throwing it on the ground, not usually something a kicker does when his head coach makes a call he doesn't like.

The offense went back out and when Denver was whistled for a delay, backing the Broncos to their own 48, a Hail Mary by rookie quarterback Drew Lock was no longer going to happen. Instead, he threw a 33-yard pass over the middle to Courtland Sutton, who was tackled at the 20.

When McManus returned to the field just before the start of the second half, he lined up at his 45-yard line and nailed a practice 65-yarder just like he knew he would have had Fangio not folded 10 minutes earlier when Chargers return man Desmond King II lined up deep in case McManus' kick was short.

''I knew I could make it, they've seen me make it in practice and we're right at the line that I gave him,'' said McManus, who was good from 31, 52 and 53 yards Sunday, his last one clearing the uprights with no time left for a 23-20 Denver win.

Fangio said he decided against the 65-yard attempt because ''at that point I didn't think it was desperation.''

Besides, he said, ''I've seen many times where guys go out there and try extra-long kicks. They alter the mechanics and it affects him the rest of the game. I'm going to say that that decision not to let him go out there for the 65-yarder led him to making the 52 and the 53-yarder.''

McManus scoffed at the notion his extra oomph he would have had to use to clear the crossbar from that distance would have affected subsequent, shorter kicks.

''Does a Hail Mary change the way a quarterback throws the ball?'' he asked.

Studies have shown a 65-yard field goal would require a foot speed of around 50 mph to generate enough power, plus hitting the sweet spot of the football about 2+ inches off the ground for an ideal launch angle of about 43 degrees to account for drag of a football flipping end over end.

Oh, and the margin for error from that distance is less than 6 degrees.

McManus might never find better conditions for an attempt at the record, but he'll have to have his coach willing to go through with it.

''I think we're two grown men and we understand the ebbs and flows of the game. He hasn't been here that long to see my total range in training camp over the years,'' McManus said of his first-year head coach.

His halftime practice kick was a message to his coach.

''Of course it is. Like I said, I know I can make the kick, and this is a storied game that I grew up watching. It was a dream of mine to play in this league and if I was able to have my name badge on the longest field goal in NFL history, I would love that,'' McManus said. ''That's why I would have loved to kick that attempt.''

McManus, however, hasn't been money like he was in the playoffs in 2015, when he set an NFL record by making all 10 of his field goal attempts on the Broncos' Super Bowl 50 championship run.

He had a streak of seven straight misses from 50-plus yards before making a 53-yarder against the Titans in Week 6, and he kicked the ground on an errant 43-yarder at Minnesota three weeks ago that played a crucial role in Denver's 27-23 loss to the Vikings.

On Sunday, he nailed his 52- and 53-yarder, the game-winner coming after he bounced a kick off the right upright and through the goal posts after Chargers coach Anthony Lynn called timeout to ice him.

''I don't think I've ever made one off the upright in my career in my six years, but any time it goes through, you're feeling confident about it,'' McManus said.

McManus explained that he, long-snapper Casey Kreiter and holder Colby Wadman have worked all season on going through with kicks when whistles are blown at the last split-second like Sunday so the ice-the-kicker strategy actually allows him to see what the conditions are like.

''I want a practice kick regardless of what happens because I want to see if the wind is moving it or if I miss it. I know I'm not going to miss the second one if I make it,'' McManus said. ''I obviously feel confident about the kick.''

So, are McManus and Fangio good?

''Yeah, 100 percent,'' McManus said. ''Kicking is a completely mental game. You battle the struggles, the ebbs and flow of it, you know, head coaching, we deal with a lot of the same scrutiny. He has to make decisions and I have to make pressured kicks. At the end of the day, I'm mad because I didn't get to kick, and in his mind, he made the right decision for the team.

''I have no problem with that, but like I said, I would love to have my name in the history books.''

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

— Purdue 69, Virginia 40— Cavaliers missing Braxton Key is a big deal.

— New Mexico 80, Boise State 78— Lobos win their conference opener.

— San Diego State 79, Colorado State 57— Aztecs, Utah State are best teams in Mountain West.

— Georgetown 81, Oklahoma State 74— Big road win for Patrick Ewing after a tough few days off the floor.

— Yale 61, Albany 52— James Jones wins a game at his alma mater.

— Villanova 80, Penn 69— Final is misleading; this was a pretty close game.

Quote of the Day:
“A lot of times when you’re playing, you have a million different things you’re having to focus in on and you can lose some of the smaller stuff. When you’re out of that [starting] role, you can kind of step back and see the little details. Watching Nick (Foles) was a great opportunity to learn.”
Jaguars’ QB Gardner Minshew

Thursday’s quiz
Who was the Chicago Bears’ coach the last time they played in a Super Bowl?

Wednesday’s quiz
14 Vice-Presidents later became President of the United States.

Tuesday’s quiz
Baltimore Ravens were last Super Bowl champ that wasn’t either the #1 or #2 seed in their conference; they were the #4 seed in AFC when they won Super Bowl XLVII.

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Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…

13) If you’re a Mets’ fan, this could be like Christmas, New Year’s, your birthday and Hannukah, all wrapped into one. This, from ESPN:

“Steve Cohen, a billionaire who owns a small percentage of the Mets, is negotiating an agreement to increase his investment, a move that could signal that Fred/Jeff Wilpon’s longtime control of the franchise will be over within five years.

Bloomberg reported that Cohen is in talks to acquire up to 80% of the team, which would be valued at $2.6B.”

All of this is great news for Mets fans, if it turns out to be true. The Wilpons are horrendous owners; the sooner they’re gone, the better.

12) New Jersey Giants’ QB Daniel Jones has a sprained ankle, is in a walking boot; sounds like Eli Manning will get the nod for Big Blue in their game at Philly Monday nite.

11) DePaul 63, Texas Tech 60 OT— Blue Demons stay unbeaten, but they trailed for most of this game, and Tech played without Ramsey, one of their best guys.

This is DePaul’s first 9-game win streak since the 1993-94 season.

10) Utah 102, BYU 95 OT— Utes outscored BYU 24-13 on foul line, offsetting BYU’s 12-24 shooting on the arc.

9) San Francisco 49ers played in Baltimore LW, are playing in New Orleans this Sunday; they’re practicing this week at IMG Academy in Bradenton, FL.

8) South Carolina QB Jake Bentley will transfer after missing almost all of this season with an injury; freshman Ryan Hilinski has played well, so Bentley, a 3-year starter, will finish his college career somewhere else.

7) USC will bring football coach Clay Helton back next year; the promising performance of freshman QB Slovis undoubtedly had a lot to do with that. New coach, new AD, and to be fair, Urban Meyer probably told USC he wasn’t interested in the job.

6) Colorado State fired football coach Mike Bobo, who went 28-35 as coach in Fort Collins.

5) Philadelphia Phillies gave 29-year old P Zack Wheeler a 5-year, $118M deal; Wheeler was 11-8, 3.96 in 31 starts LY, is 44-38, 3.77 in 126 career starts- he’s been hurt a lot.

Wheeler apparently turned down a bigger offer from the White Sox; when guys turn down more money to play somewhere else, thats a pretty big kick in the teeth.

4) Atlanta Braves signed soon-to-be 36-year old lefty P Cole Hamels to a 1-year, $18M deal; Hamels was 7-7, 3.81 in 27 starts for the Cubs last year.

3) Orioles traded 27-year old P Dylan Bundy to the Angels for four minor leaguers. Bundy was 7-14, 4.79 in 30 starts for a dreadful Baltimore team LY.

Angels also made a deal this week to stay in Anaheim thru 2050; the team will buy Angel Stadium and the 133 acres of surrounding land for $325M

2) Miami Marlins acquired IF Jonathan Villar from the Orioles for minor league P Easton Lucas; they also claimed 1B Jesus Aguilar off waivers from Tampa Bay.

1) NC State 69, Wisconsin 54— Badgers lost their last three games, are struggling at 4-4.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Josh Inglis

SHADING THE MVP

The Buffalo Bills' hype-train is chugging along after a convincing win in Dallas with the country watching in Week 13. But things will get much more difficult this week with the Baltimore Ravens traveling to New Era Field.

This game will feature the first and fourth-best rushing quarterbacks (rush yards/game) in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Jackson is nearly impossible to game plan against because no teams can mimic Jackson in practice - except the Bills.

The Bills defense is used to practicing against a mobile QB and if any team in the league is prepared to slow down Jackson, the Bills stand the best chance. The same can be said with Allen as he will see a defense that faces an elite QB rushing talent in practice every week.

We think there’s a chance that the Allen and Jackson (not to be confused with the rugged country singer) rushing markets could be overvalued with all the attention they have been getting after Week 13. We are going to fade both dual-threat quarterbacks, taking the Under on Jackson’s rushing total of 75.5 yards and the Under on Allen’s on 39.5 yards.


DUCK DYNASTY

The Arizona Cardinals may be 4-1-1 ATS at home this year but their opponents have enjoyed success on the offensive side of the ball in the desert. The Cardinals are giving up the second-most TDs at home (3.8) and have allowed their opponents to score 30 or more points in four straight weeks. Even the L.A. Rams scored 34 points versus Arizona last week after averaging just 11.6 points a game from Weeks 10 through 12.

The Pittsburgh Steelers under Devlin Hodges have scored in seven of their last 16 drives and are putting up 5.5 points a quarter. Not incredible numbers but facing the league’s 28th-ranked red-zone defense will make things easier. Getting center James Pouncey back from suspension certainly helps and if James Connor can suit up, the Steelers have a good chance at eclipsing their team total, even if JuJu Smith-Schuster is out.

We’re riding the Over on the Steelers’ total of 22.5 and are waiting for TE Vance MacDonald’s prop market to open as he faces the league’s worst TE-defending team.


PRIMETIME SIX-POINT TEASER TIME

Dallas (+3) is lucky it plays in the worst division in football this year. Nobody wants to win the NFC East but Dallas may have more motivation after getting shown up on Thanksgiving and Jerry Jones basically saying Jason Garrett will not be back next year. Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears are also due for a dud. Cowboys +3

The Rams decided to run up the score last week which hopefully gives that offense and their full slate of receivers some confidence ahead of their matchup versus the Seahawks. Seattle sits sixth in points per play while its defense is allowing 24.4 average points against. Take the Over 42.

Over their last three games, the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants are averaging 52 points combined. The Giants offense will be forced to put up some points on Monday night as their defense is allowing the second-most points on the road. New York is also 5-1 O/U on totals of 41 or higher over its last six games. Take the Over 41.


FIRST-HALF CIRCUIT BAKER

The Cincinnati Bengals have the 31st DVOA first-half defense and are giving up 14.3 first-half points on the road this year. The Bengals have won their last two first halves against the Steelers and the Jets and this week may be a great time to fade Cincy in the first half as it recovers from a victory hangover.

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield will be good to go for Sunday and feasted on the Bengals last year. In his two games against Cincy, the former No.1 pick has thrown for seven TDs and completed 73 percent of his passes.

Cleveland will take out its frustrations on its division rivals. Take the Browns first-half spread of -4.


TOM TERRIBLE

Kansas City’s defense is amped up to play the Patriots and their anemic offense. We won’t put all the blame on Brady as that receiving corps has been a revolving door this year and there’s a serious lack of experience outside of Julian Edelman.

The Chiefs have six interceptions over their last two games and if Patrick Mahomes and the offense get up in New England, they will force Brady to pass - something the 42-year-old QB hasn’t been very good at. Brady is just 17th in QBR, between Ryan Tannehill and Jameis Winston.

Brady has only one interception at home this year but threw eight at Gillette Stadium last season. Aided by the eye test, we are putting our money on the Over 0.5 INTs for Tom Terrific.


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NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 9-3 O/U
t2. Panthers 8-4 O/U
t2. Lions 8-4 O/U
t4. Seahawks, Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs, Titans, Cowboys, Colts, Cardinals, and Giants tied at 7-5 O/U


NFL's Top Under Teams:

t1. Bills 9-3 U/O
t1. Steelers 9-3 U/O
3. Bengals 8-3-1 U/O
t4. Patriots 8-4 U/O
t4. Rams 8-4 U/O
t4. Bears100 8-4 U/O
t4. Chargers 8-4 U/O
t4. Falcons 8-4 U/O

[Udog]

TNF - Cowboys at Bears
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

Both these teams played on Thanksgiving with mixed results. Starting with the Cowboys (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS), it was an embarrassing Turkey Day home loss to the upstart Bills in a 26-15 setback as 6 ½-point favorites. Dallas jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead on a Dak Prescott touchdown strike to tight end Jason Witten, but the Cowboys wouldn’t score again until four minutes remaining in regulation.

In between, the Bills ran off 26 consecutive points, as Dallas turned the ball over twice. Prescott ended the day with 355 yards passing, but it was the second time this season that the Dallas quarterback posted gaudy numbers in a home blowout loss (463 yards against Packers). Running back Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball only 12 times, tied for his fewest all season, but racked up 71 yards which came to an average of 5.9 yards an attempt.

The Bears (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS) erased a 17-7 deficit at rival Detroit last Thursday to knock off the Lions, 24-20. Chicago closed as a 5 ½-point road favorite, marking its seventh ATS loss in the past eight games, but the Bears are back at .500 since owning a 3-3 record in Week 7. Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky put together his best game of the season by throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead score to David Montgomery with 2:17 remaining in regulation.

In spite of Chicago’s modest two-game winning streak, the Bears remain three games behind the Packers for the top spot in the NFC North and two games back of the Vikings for the second NFC Wild Card position. The 24 points scored at Detroit marked the most posted by the Bears since putting up 25 in a home loss to New Orleans back in Week 7. The defense allowed at least 20 points for the first time in four games, ending a five-game streak to the ‘over.’

YOU DON’T SCORE UNTIL YOU SCORE

The Cowboys’ formula for winning this season has been very simple. When Dallas scores 31 points or more, it has a perfect 6-0 mark. On the flip side, Jason Garrett’s squad has compiled an ugly 0-6 record when being held to 30 points or less. The last two weeks have been especially forgettable offensively as Dallas combined for only 24 points against a pair of solid defenses in New England and Buffalo. The last time the Cowboys won a game when scoring fewer than 30 points was their Wild Card victory over the Seahawks this past January, 24-22.

PROTECT THIS HOUSE

The Bears have played six games at Soldier Field this season and have allowed more than 17 points only once, which came in a Week 7 defeat at New Orleans when they yielded 36 points. Chicago has given up 10, 6, 17, 13, and 14 in the other five home contests, while opponents have posted more than 20 points only once in the past 10 games at Soldier Field, which includes the 16-15 playoff loss to Philadelphia. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of the last 10 home contests for Chicago, as the Bears have scored at least 21 points only once in six home games in 2019.

DOGGIN’ IT

For only the third time this season, the Bears are listed in the underdog role. The first two times didn’t work out well for Chicago by losing at Philadelphia, 22-14 in Week 9 and dropping a 17-7 decision to the Rams in Week 11. The last time the Bears closed as an underdog at Soldier Field came last December in a 15-6 win over Los Angeles when they received three points. ‘Dogs have posted a solid 9-4 ATS record on Thursday night action this season, while only two home underdogs have won and covered on Thursdays (Jaguars – Week 3 and Raiders – Week 10).

SERIES HISTORY

These NFC squads last met in 2016 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as the Cowboys took care of the Bears, 31-17 as 6 ½-point favorites. Dallas is making its first trip to the Windy City since 2014 (also a Thursday night game) when the Cowboys held off a furious Bears’ rally in a 41-28 victory as four-point favorites. The Cowboys built a commanding 35-7 lead before Chicago scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the final score look better.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 44 and the number is listed at 42 ½ as of Wednesday evening.

Chris David offered up his thoughts on this week’s number.

He said, “This game could be looked at as a bit of a head-scratcher based on the total results for both clubs. The Cowboys have watched the ‘over’ go 7-5 this season and that includes a 4-2 mark on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears have been a great ‘under’ bet at 8-4 and only one of six games played at Soldier Field went ‘over’ this season and that outcome was helped with a big second-half scoring surge when the Saints visited back in Week 7.”

“Chicago is the perfect mold of an ‘under’ team, solid defense and inconsistent offense and that trend has been golden for bettors riding the low side -- especially at home too. The ‘under’ is on an 8-1 run in the last nine home games for the Bears and only one team scored more than 17 points, which came in the aforementioned effort against New Orleans (36-25).”

While those seasonal trends and tendencies could have many bettors placing ‘under’ wagers on Thursday, David points out a total angle that’s correlated to Dallas.

He explained, “The drama always follows Dallas in the NFL and this season is no different. After last week’s loss on Thanksgiving to Buffalo, it’s hard to have any confidence in the Cowboys but if you believe they’re going to right the ship then you would a better offensive effort. Dallas sits at 6-5 on the season and it has averaged 34.3 in the six wins and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in those games. If you go back even further, the Cowboys have scored 20-plus points in 16 of their last 17 wins. Bottom line, the Cowboys win when they score. The Dallas team total is hovering between 22 and 23 for Thursday and since I believe the ‘Boys rebound, my lean would be to the Cowboys Team Total Over.”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in to figure out what has gone wrong with the Cowboys, “Dallas has out-gained 11 of 12 foes this season with the only deficit just -9 at New Orleans. Turnovers can’t account for all the problems at just -4 in turnover margin on the season though the Dallas defense has forced zero turnovers in the past four games for a -5 run in that 1-3 stretch. Chicago is +3 in turnovers on the season, but an offense with a rushing identity has been out-gained on the ground in seven of the past eight games even with a run defense that has allowed 97 yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 276 ½ (-110)
Under 276 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 1 ½ (-120)
Under 1 ½ (Even)

Will Dak Prescott (DAL) throw an interception?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Rushing Yards – Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
Over 81 ½ (-110)
Under 81 ½ (-110)

Will Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) score a touchdown?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Completions – Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
Over 22 ½ (-110)
Under 22 ½ (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – David Montgomery (CHI)
Over 55 ½ (-110)
Under 55 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Anthony Miller (CHI)
Over 53 ½ (-110)
Under 53 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

This line has stayed steady this week with the Cowboys as three-point road favorites. The total hasn’t seen much movement as it sits at 43 ½ at most books.

[StarDust Bum]

Micthell Trubisky helps Bears beat Cowboys 31-24
December 5, 2019

CHICAGO (AP) Mitchell Trubisky and the Chicago Bears appear to be hitting their stride even if it might be too late to salvage their season.

Trubisky threw three touchdown passes and ran for a score in Chicago's 31-24 victory over Dak Prescott and the slumping Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.

In a matchup between disappointing teams that made the playoffs last season, the Bears (7-6) came away with their fourth win in five games after dropping four in a row. The Cowboys (6-7) have lost seven of 10 since a 3-0 start.

''I think it saws we're resilient,'' Trubisky said. ''We stick together. We believe in each other even when nobody else believes in us. It's a special group in that locker room. We just want to keep this feeling going.''

Trubisky shook off an early interception near the goal line to complete 23 of 31 passes for 244 yards. He matched a season high for touchdown throws and set one with 63 yards rushing. That included a 23-yard scoring dash early in the fourth quarter, making it 31-14.

Allen Robinson caught two TD passes, and Anthony Miller had one as Chicago tied a season scoring high. Khalil Mack had a sack. Linebacker Roquan Smith left the game with a pectoral injury on the opening drive, with coach Matt Nagy saying it ''doesn't look real good for him.'' But the Bears took out the NFC East leaders after beating the struggling Detroit Lions twice and New York Giants in recent weeks.

''Most teams at some point in time will hit some type of adversity,'' Nagy said. ''We went through that four-game stretch. It was difficult in a lot of different ways. ... Everybody's seeing what type of people we have on this football team. No one's flinched. We've pulled together. We've become even tighter.''

Facing a top-10 defense for the third week in a row, the Cowboys once again couldn't get their high-powered offense going.

NFL passing leader Prescott was 27 of 49 for 334 yards and a touchdown. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 81 yards - his fifth straight game under 100 - and two scores.

Michael Gallup had 109 yards receiving. Amari Cooper caught six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown, but the Cowboys lost their third straight. They lead Philadelphia by a half-game in the division.

''I can't put a finger on it,'' Prescott said. ''I wish I could right now, if I could we wouldn't be in this situation, we would be getting over this and out of this slump, but that's the most frustrating part, we have the skill level, we have the players, we have the chemistry at times, But we're not playing together as a team, complementary enough when we need to and we need to figure it out what it is.''

TAKING CONTROL

Kept out of the end zone in a 13-9 loss at New England two weeks ago and then held to two touchdowns in falling 26-15 to Buffalo on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys went 75 yards for a score on the game's opening possession. Elliott lunged in from the 2 to cap a 17-play drive.

Dallas' Jourdan Lewis then intercepted Trubisky's pass with a neat play near the left pylon, dragging his left foot. He was initially ruled out, but the call was overturned by a replay review.

But it was all Bears after that.

Chicago tied it early in the second quarter when Trubisky hit Robinson with a 5-yard pass and took a 10-7 lead on a 36-yard field goal by Eddy Pineiro. Dallas' Brett Maher then missed a 42-yarder wide right. Chicago added to the lead in the closing seconds of the half with Trubisky's 8-yard pass to Robinson, and Miller's 14-yarder on a screen in the third made it 24-7.

FOR KICKS

Maher is 20 for 30 on field goals this season after making 1 of 2. The 10 misses are more than any other NFL kicker in a season the past four years.

INJURIES

Cowboys: WR Cedric Wilson jammed his left leg trying to catch a long pass in the closing minute. ... LB Leighton Vander Esch (neck), NT Antwaun Woods (knee) and S Jeff Heath (shoulder) were inactive.

Bears: WR Javon Wims (knee) walked off gingerly in the closing seconds of the first half after an awkward landing as he tried to make a leaping catch in the end zone. ... CB Prince Amukamara (hamstring) was inactive after being listed as doubtful. ... WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion), TE Ben Braunecker (concussion) and RT Bobby Massie (ankle) all missed their second straight game.

UP NEXT

Cowboys: Host Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 15.

Bears: At Green Bay on Dec. 15.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Pitchers who threw fewest pitches/batter last year:

3.58— Brett Anderson, A’s

3.63— German Marquez, NYY

3.65— Zach Eflin Phil, Mike Soroka, Atl

3,67— Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

3.69— Sandy Alcantara, Mia

3.70— Kyle Hendricks Cubs, Joe Musgrove, Pitt

Quote of the Day:
“Come on. Is that really a possibility? They’re not really thinking about that. Are they?……I hate it. I think it’s stupid.”
Clayton Kershaw, talking about the possibility of robot umps in the major leagues

Friday’s quiz
Which retired tennis star once played a judge in an episode of Law and Order?

Thursday’s quiz
Lovie Smih was the Chicago Bears’ coach the last time they played in a Super Bowl.

Wednesday’s quiz
14 Vice-Presidents later became President of the United States.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…..

13) Bears 31, Cowboys 24:
— Dallas drove 75 yards on 17 plays (8:57) for a TD on their first drive.
— Cowboys’ next five drives: 19 plays, 58 yards, 2 first downs, 0 points.
— Dallas lost four of last five games, but still leads NFC East at 6-7.

— Trubisky ran ball nine times for 64 yards and a TD; he threw for three TD’s.
— Bears won four of last five games; they won field position by 19 yards.
— Chicago has outscored opponents 98-30 in 3rd quarter this year.

12) There are two divisions in the ACC during football season, the Atlantic and the Coastal. The winners meet in the ACC title game, this year being held in Charlotte.

Over the last nine years, Clemson/Florida State have won the Atlantic Division every year, but over the last seven years, the Coastal Division has been won by seven different teams. The true definition of parity; seven division champs in seven years.

11) Ohio State 74, North Carolina 49— This is the first time since 1949-50 that North Carolina hasn’t scored 80+ points in any of their first eight games in a season. Tar Heels are 6-2, with both of their losses are against top 15 teams.

10) UNLV 81, Fresno State 80 2OT— Rebels have already played four OT games; this was first one they won- it was their conference opener, so it was more important than the other ones.

9) Louisiana Tech 74, Mississippi State 67— Good win for Conference USA. Tech made 10-16 on arc in this game. State made 11-23 on arc and still lost.

Auburn 81, Furman 78 OT— Furman led this game by 14 with 16:09 to play; they made 13-31 on arc, but Auburn rallies to stay unbeaten, despite turning ball over 19 times (-4).

8) Ideas for reality TV shows:
— Inside the room as they make the NFL schedule each year.
— Inside the room of a major league team approaching the trade deadline.
— Inside agent Scott Boras’ entourage during the Winter Meetings.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Milwaukee got C Omar Narvaez from Seattle for minor league P Adam Hill and a competitive balance draft pick.
— Mets got OF Jake Marisnick from Houston for two minor leaguers.

6) From ESPN.com: Over/under season win totals that already cashed:
Seahawks over 8.5
49ers over 8
Ravens over 8
Bills over 7

Chargers under 10
Eagles under 10
Falcons under 8.5
Bengals under 6

5) Former Auburn QB Joey Gatewood is transferring to Kentucky; not often a kid transfers to another school in the same league. He will be eligible to play in 2021, and hopefully, those two teams will play once or twice while he is playing for the Wildcats.

4) Michigan-Kentucky are going to play a basketball game in London next December.

3) Indiana Hoosiers are only D-I college hoop team that hasn’t played a game yet away from its home arena- they play at Wisconsin Saturday.

2) Suns 139, Pelicans 132 OT— Booker scored 44 points for the Suns, who blew a 16-point lead in 4th quarter. Four of five New Orleans starters scored 20+ points in the loss.

1) Baseball’s winter meetings are next week; a good time to think about next season and try and make some decisions about my fantasy baseball team, which had a cruddy year LY. One of the bigger decisions; what writers do I trust for information?

Last year I was reading some stuff on The Athletic, and this writer was raving about a pitcher on the Blue Jays, Trent Thornton. I didn’t have any opinion on Thornton myself, but I took a leap of faith in the writer and added Thornton, who proceeded to get treated like a piñata by hitters— his ERA on August 31 was 5.48 (he did have a solid September).

No bueno. Moral of the story: Be careful who you listen to.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 14 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Bills (747) +5.5

5) Saints (787) -2.5

4) Chiefs (803) +3

3) 49ers (809) +2.5

2) Bengals (895) +8.5

1) Rams (899) even

2019 record: 41-34-3

Quote of the Day:
“I’m a breakfast burrito guy in the mornings. Where I go, you have to ask for the salsa. They charge you for it. It’s kind of ridiculous. … We play for the national championship, and I’m pleased to say I now get free salsa.”
Texas Tech basketball coach Chris Beard

Sunday’s quiz
Where was the first SEC football championship game played, in 1992?

Saturday’s quiz
Vince Young led the Texas Longhorns to the 2005 national title; he played 54 of his 60 NFL games for the Tennessee Titans.

Friday’s quiz
Retired tennis star Billie Jean King played a judge in an episode of Law and Order.

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Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

Random thoughts on a December day when I’m hunkered down inside because it is damn cold outside, and I’m already tired of winter:

Noon-4pm:
Oklahoma 30, Baylor 23 OT— NFL teams are very high on Baylor coach Matt Rhule as someone who will be an NFL head coach someday. His QB got knocked out of this game in the 2nd quarter, but they still took Oklahoma to OT, behind freshman 3rd-stringer Jacob Zeno, who completed only two passes, but for 159 yards.

11am local time kickoff means a 7am pre-game meal. Not an ideal situation, though, such an early kickoff. TV decides which games are played when.

This was Baylor’s first appearance in the Big X title game; they were outgained 146-16 in the first quarter, 433-265 for the game.

Baylor 63, Arizona 58— Feel bad for the Baylor basketball players, with this game at same time as the football game, which was played 98 miles away in Arlington. They actually let fans into the basketball game in Waco for free, and not that many showed up.

— Cheerleading trivia: Half of Baylor’s cheerleaders went to the football game, half stayed behind in Waco and went to the basketball game. The cheerleaders who stayed behind get to go to Baylor’s bowl game, which seems like it would be more fun than a 98-mile bus ride to Dallas.

Appalachian State 45, Louisiana 38— This game was 42-17 with 2:00 left in third quarter; Ragin’ Cajuns closed to within final margin with 1:19 left to play. ULL gained 513 yards, but their minus-2 turnover ratio did them in. App State’s last TD was a pick-6.

Miami OH 26, Central Michigan 21— RedHawks won their 16th MAC title, after gaining only 61 yards in the first half. CMU did great just getting to this game, after going 1-11 LY.

Ohio State 106, Penn State 74— If the NCAA tournament started tomorrow (it doesn’t), I’d pick a Louisville-Ohio State national title game.

4-7pm:
LSU 37, Georgia 10— Joe Burrow is going to win the Heisman Trophy; at one time, he was the 3rd-string QB at Ohio State. Three of the four QB’s in the national playoff are going to be guys who transferred from their original school.

Memphis 29, Cincinnati 24—- Not often teams play each other two weeks in a row; Tigers beat Cincinnati twice in eight days- thats the good news.

Bad news for Memphis— their coach is expected to bolt to Florida $tate today.

Boise State 31, Hawai’i 10— If you went to college at Hawai’i, how excited would you be about visiting Boise in December? Broncos win their third Muntain West title game.

Wisconsin 84, Indiana 64— Hoosiers were last D-I team in America to play outside their home arena, and it showed here- they got waxed. This was Indiana’s 17th loss in a row in Madison.

Creighton 95, Nebraska 76— Bluejays led this game 37-7; Nebraska has ton of work to do on the recruiting trail.

Memphis 65, UAB 57— Blazers were up 20 in first half, but Memphis is so talented; they won this going away. When Tigers get Wiseman back in January, they have shot at developing into a Final Four contender. Big afternoon for the Memphis athletic department.

Xavier 73, Cincinnati 66— One of best rivalries in the country, been dominated by the home team recently. Naji Marshall scored 31 for the Musketeers.

7pm-on…..:
— Clemson 62, Virginia 17— Tigers won their fifth consecutive ACC title, winning their 28th game in a row. Lawrence threw for 302 yards, four TD’s.

— Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 21— Badgers led 21-7 at halftime, then got crushed in second half; Ohio State wins Big 14 title game for third year in a row.

Western Kentucky 86, Arkansas 79 OT— Hilltoppers scored last five points of regulation, but may have lost star C Massey to a knee injury. This was Arkansas’ first loss of season.

Marquette 77, Kansas State 65— Solid road win for the Golden Eagles, who made 12-22 on the arc.

Elsewhere…….
— Portland Trailblazers’ Rodney Hood tore his left achilles Friday night; he was scoring 11 ppg in 29.5 mpg. Tough injury to come back from.

— Texas Rangers signed P Jordan Lyles to a 2-year, $16M deal, after signing Kyle Gibson to a 3-year, $30M deal last week.

— Florida State is expected to name Memphis coach Mike Norvell its new football coach at a news conference Sunday afternoon.

— Colts will have Chase McLaughlin kicking for them in Tampa Sunday, in place of Adan Vinatieri.

— NFL fined the Detroit Lions’ organization $75,000, HC Matt Patricia $25,000, and GM Bob Quinn $10,000 for failing to properly update the injury status of QB Matthew Stafford before the November 10 game against the Bears.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 14 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather and Pros vs Joes
Patrick Everson

Atlanta wideout Julio Jones returns to the lineup for Sunday's home game against Carolina. Oddsmakers at The SuperBook peg Jones as worth a half-point to the line, and the Falcons are laying 3.5.

NFL Week 14 doesn’t have much in the way of major injury news, but there are certainly other elements – including the elements themselves – impacting the numbers. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

ATLANTA FALCONS: Julio Jones (shoulder) missed the Thanksgiving Day home loss to the Saints, but he’ll be back Sunday at home for a division battle against the Panthers. Also back is Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (knee), after a three-game absence. “Jones is worth a half-point, nothing for Hooper,” Osterman said. Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite, after opening -2, and the total is 47.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: Tight end Greg Olsen (concussion) is out, but Osterman said there was no adjustment on that info for Carolina’s tilt at Atlanta. The Panthers are 3.5-point underdogs.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Here’s how far Adam Vinatieri’s stock has dropped: the place-kicker is out Sunday at Tampa Bay due to a knee injury, and Osterman said The SuperBook made no line adjustment on that information. T.Y. Hilton (calf) is also out for Indy. “He’s worth a half-point.” The Colts are 3.5-point underdogs.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu-Smith Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) are again out, as the Steelers travel to Arizona. “Schuster and Conner are worth a half-point combined.” Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point pup.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is questionable for a home game against Tennessee. “Jacobs might be worth a half-point. The Raiders are so banged up that it’s hard to tell how much he affects this particular game.” Oakland is a 2.5-point home ‘dog.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Wideout Adam Thielen (hamstring) is doubtful, but seeing as he’s been out a month now, Osterman said that was already factored in. The Vikings are still 13-point home favorites over Detroit.

NEW YORK JETS: Running back Le’Veon Bell (illness) is questionable, but that didn’t change any thinking at The SuperBook for the Jets’ home game against Miami. New York is laying 5.5.


Weather Watch

WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY: It’ll be cloudy and cool, with temperatures in the 30s throughout, along with winds in the mid-teens. “The total has come down a half-point due to the wind, not so much the temperature.” The total is at 42.5.

BALTIMORE AT BUFFALO: It’ll be cloudy, with winds approaching 20 mph at New Era Field. “This game has come down a half-point due to forecasted wind.” The total is 44.

CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: Winds of 20 mph are expected for this AFC North contest. “The total has come down 1.5 points, some of that due to wind, and some due to the possibility of Baker Mayfield being limited with his injury.” Mayfield has a hand injury, but he wasn’t listed on the Browns’ injury report. The total is 41.5.

KANSAS CITY AT NEW ENGLAND: It’s a 4:25 p.m. ET kick, and evening temperatures will be in the low 30s, but Osterman said that’s had no impact on the game. The total is 49.5.


Pros vs. Joes

BALTIMORE AT BUFFALO: “Pros were on the Bills early, and since then, we’ve had a steady flow of Ravens parlay bets.” Baltimore is laying 6 points.

KANSAS CITY AT NEW ENGLAND: “Joes have been backing the Chiefs, and we’ve had some sharp money on the Patriots.” The Patriots opened -3, briefly went to -2.5 early in the week and reached -3.5 Friday morning.

PITTSBURGH AT ARIZONA: “Pros have backed the Cardinals a little bit, but we’re getting mostly Steelers money on parlays and straight bets.” Pittsburgh is -2.5.
Reverse Line Moves

WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY: “The line opened Packers -14, and we we’re down to -12.5. The money, however, is coming in on the Packers from the public.” That led to an uptick to -13 Friday afternoon.

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by: Josh Inglis


GOLDEN PASCAL

Yesterday, we wrote about the lack of receiving options the Indianapolis Colts have ahead of their tasty matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ No. 19 DVOA pass defense. With T.Y. officially out, that leaves Zach Pascal and Paris Campbell as the No. 1 and No. 2 WRs for Jacoby Brissett.

The Bucs have the league’s best run defense which will force the Colts to move the ball through the air, whether they prefer to or not. Luckily for Indy, Tampa Bay also has one of the worst secondaries in the league. Bruce Arians’ defense is giving up 83.7 yards a game to opposing WR1s and 72.4 yards to WR2s. That makes Pascal, the team’s leading receiving, a strong play for Sunday especially coming off a seven-catch 109-yard performance last week.

We are riding the Over on Pascal’s receiving total of 46.5 yards.


MY BETTER HALF

The Cleveland Browns are still trying to make something of the season as they are winners of three of their last four but still sit in third place in the AFC North at 5-7. One thing they have been better at than 29 other teams of late, is to score in the first half. Over the last three weeks, Cleveland has been putting up 17.3 points as well as allowing just 4.3 in the first half since Week 11 and they'll hope to keep that going this week against the rival Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have been getting beat up all year but even more so in the first half. In the seven games versus Top-20 offenses, Cincy has been outscored 124-60 in the first thirty minutes and hasn’t covered a first-half spread of +4 or greater in six of those seven games.

We are taking the Browns on the first-half spread at -4.


A WALK IN THE WOODS

L.A. Rams receiver Robert Woods has been turning heads of late. The 27-year-old WR has hit the 95-yard mark in three straight games as he has seen 38 targets and has accumulated 364 yards over that stretch. Considering the Rams have only thrown the ball 100 times since Week 11, Woods owns 38 percent of the team’s target share and a whopping 46 percent of its total air yards.

The Seattle Seahawks will have their hands full with Woods, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Tyler Higbee meaning Woods’ could find the vulnerable deep areas in Seattle’s Cover 3 zone defense as well as the open passes in the flats. Jared Goff passed for 396 yards against the Seahawks in Week 6 where Woods saw nine targets that he turned into five catches and 48 yards — numbers he can improve on this week.

Take the Over on Woods’ receiving total of 68.5 yards.


WAKING UP EARLY

Sticking with first-half plays, the New Orleans Saints will host the San Francisco 49ers in a game that has major home-field playoff implications. Both these teams sit Top-5 in first-half points scored in the last three weeks with the Saints and 49ers combining for 33.7 first-half points.

Since November, these two clubs are a combined 6-2 O/U on first-half totals of 22 points or less and this week both these offenses get to play in the warm and quick confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. We are getting behind the first-half Over 22.


QB TD

Patrick Mahomes has looked like his old self as the 2018 MVP has rushed for 84 yards and a TD in his last two games. Up next is New England’s No. 1 defense. If the KC QB can’t find his receivers against the No. 2 passing defense, Mahomes may have to improvise which one would think could lead to some QB rushing yards, but the Pats defense has also stuffed that this year.

Lamar Jackson ran for 3.6 yards per carry which is 3.4 yards lower than his average. Dak Prescott couldn’t gain any yardage on the ground either and most recently Deshaun Watson managed negative yards on four carries against New England.

Mahomes could still use his legs to help the team in the form of the more profitable QB rushing TD. Jackson did rush for two scores while Josh Allen also ran one in back in Week 4. With RB Damien Williams out, Andy Reid may have to get creative in the red zone which could possibly increase Mahomes rushing TD probability.

Sprinkle a little cheddar on a Mahomes’ rushing TD for a juicy return.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 12-0 ATS (9.17 ppg) since Dec 26, 2004 coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-12 ATS (-12.33 ppg) since Nov 09, 2014 coming off a game with at least 300 passing yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (7.11 ppg) since Dec 12, 2016 coming off a game where Julian Edelman had at least 100 receiving yards.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- PLAY AGAINST: Teams which committed over 100 penalty yards for two straight games are 18-31-3 ATS. Active against Jacksonville and New Orleans.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-11 OU (-10.32 ppg) since Dec 22, 2013 as a dog coming off a game where they allowed less than 200 passing yards.

-- The Redskins are 11-0-2 OU (10.12 ppg) since Nov 29, 2009 as a road dog when they covered by at least seven points last game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Chargers are 12-0 ATS (+7.33 ppg) on the road when they lost their last two road games.

NFL USER TREND:
-- The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS since 2011 hosting AFC West teams.

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Sunday Blitz - Week 14
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens (-6, 44) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST
This matchup has plenty of ramifications for seeding in the AFC playoffs as the winner holds a crucial tiebreaker advantage. Baltimore (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) looks like a runaway train by winning eight consecutive games, while handing San Francisco its second loss of the season in last Sunday’s 20-17 home victory. The Ravens had their five-game ATS hot streak snapped as they failed to cash as 5 ½-point favorites, but Baltimore has excelled on the road this season with a 5-1 mark away from M&T Bank Stadium.

The Bills (9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) are the top Wild Card team in the AFC entering Week 14, while surprisingly sitting one game back of the Patriots for first place in the AFC East. Buffalo dominated Dallas on Thanksgiving day, 26-15 as 6 ½-point road underdogs to improve to 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the ‘dog role this season. Since losing at Cleveland four weeks ago, the Bills are riding a three-game winning streak, while hitting the UNDER in four of the past five contests.

These teams hooked up in the 2018 season opener in Baltimore as the Ravens destroyed the Bills, 47-3 as 7 ½-point favorites. MVP candidate Lamar Jackson did not start at quarterback in that blowout for Baltimore, as the Ravens have won seven of his career nine road starts with the two losses coming at Kansas City.

Best Bet: Ravens 20, Bills 17

49ers at Saints (-2, 44 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Home-field advantage isn’t necessarily on the line at the Superdome on Sunday, but the winner is in an excellent position to own the top NFC seed. San Francisco (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is fresh off its first road loss of the season in a 20-17 setback at Baltimore. In spite of the loss, the Niners improved to 4-0 ATS in the role of an away underdog, while facing its third straight opponent that currently owns a record of 9-3 or better. San Francisco has cashed the UNDER in four of six road contests, while yielding 20 points or fewer five times.

The Saints (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) wrapped up their third consecutive NFC South title by knocking off the Falcons on Thanksgiving night, 26-18 as seven-point road favorites. New Orleans moved to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite, while the Saints are 8-2 ATS since failing to cover in the first two games of the season. The Saints have topped the 30-point mark in four of six home contests, as Sean Payton’s team has compiled an 11-2 record in the past 13 regular season games in the Big Easy.

The Niners, Saints, and Seahawks all enter Sunday at 10-2 apiece as New Orleans owns the tiebreaker over Seattle. San Francisco still faces Seattle on the road for a second time in Week 17 after losing at home to the Seahawks last month. The Saints defeated the Niners, 41-23 in Santa Clara in 2016, while San Francisco is making its first trip to the Superdome since beating New Orleans in overtime back in 2014.

Best Bet: 49ers 23, Saints 19

Chiefs at Patriots (-3, 49 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
The much-anticipated rematch of the epic AFC championship game from last January between Kansas City and New England takes place on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) outlasted the Chiefs in overtime, 37-31 as three-point road underdogs to capture their third consecutive AFC title, while also pulling off the season sweep of Kansas City. New England grabbed the regular season matchup in Foxborough, 43-40, but the Chiefs cashed as slim 3 ½-point underdogs.

The stakes are high for the Patriots this time around, as they are tied with the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC playoffs, although New England loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Baltimore. Bill Belichick’s team is coming off their second bad Sunday night road loss in less than a month in last Sunday’s 28-22 setback at Houston as three-point favorites. Tom Brady threw two late touchdown passes, but the Pats dug themselves a 28-9 hole that was nearly impossible to get out of.

The Chiefs (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) likely won’t possess home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but picked up some major breathing room for the top spot in the AFC West. Kansas City blasted Oakland last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, 40-9 to easily cash as 11-point favorites, while owning a two-game edge over the Raiders with four contests remaining. Patrick Mahomes has failed to pass for more than 182 yards in each of the last two games for Kansas City, but the Chiefs enter Foxborough with a 5-1 record this season on the road.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Chiefs 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 47 – Seahawks at Rams

Seattle outlasted Los Angeles, 30-29 in the first meeting earlier this season to eclipse the OVER of 49. The total dropped two points for this matchup at the L.A. Coliseum as the Rams’ defense has been sharp of late by allowing 17 points or less in five of the past six games. The Seahawks have given up 10, 20, and 24 points after yielding 30 points in the previous contest this season. The last four meetings between these NFC West have finished OVER the total, but the Rams have scored 17 and 6 points in two primetime home games this season.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

When the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released early lines for Week 14 on November 26, the Browns were listed as 10 ½-point home favorites over the Bengals. Adjustments were made following Cleveland’s loss at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati grabbing its first win of the season last week as the Browns are currently a seven-point favorite. These Ohio rivals are meeting for the first time in 2019 as Cleveland swept the series last season, but the Bengals are 7-1 ATS in the past eight matchups.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Cardinals were blown out by the Rams at home last week, as Arizona welcomes in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are feeling good about themselves after rallying past the rival Browns last week to improve to 7-5 and being in line for a Wild Card berth. Arizona has lost five straight games, while Pittsburgh is 6-1 the last seven contests. However, the Cardinals feature the better quarterback in Kyler Murray as opposed to Pittsburgh’s Devlin Hodges, who is making only his third career start. Arizona is a 1 ½-point underdog, as the Cardinals are 3-2 ATS in the role of a home ‘dog.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Jaguars don’t save their best football for December. It’s not like Jacksonville fared well in November this season, but the Jags are 2-5 SU/ATS in their last seven December contests since 2017. In those seven games, Jacksonville has been limited to 17 points or fewer each time, while hitting the UNDER six times. The Jags host the stumbling Chargers on Sunday as three-point underdogs, as the total sits at 43.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 14
Joe Williams

We're into our first weekend of December and Week 14 of the National Football League regular season. We have just four more weeks of NFL action before the playoffs begin. The Thursday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys-Chicago Bears saw the 'over' connect, a rarity for TNF.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 13 8-8 9-7 6-10
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 92-99-1 90-101-1 83-104-5

The 'over' and 'under' ended up 8-8 during the Thanksgiving week, with the 'over' connecting in two of the three primetime games, and the 'under' going 2-1 in the Thursday action. The public loves 'over' results, and there were plenty, though.

Savvy bettors playing the halves watched the 'over' go 9-7 in the first-half but the scoring slowed down in the final 30 minutes and that helped the 'under' go 10-6 in the second-half. On the season, the low side has trended ahead in both the first-half (101-90-1) and second-half (104-83-5).

Division Bell

In the seven divisional battles in Week 13, the slight edge went to the 'under' - including NFC South battle between the New Orleans Saints-Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving night. The under is now 36-31 (53.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 13

Chicago at Detroit (Thu.) Over (37) Chicago 24, Detroit 20
New Orleans at Atlanta (Thu.) Under (48) New Orleans 26, Atlanta 18
Tennessee at Indianapolis Over (42) Tennessee 31, Indianapolis 17
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (40) Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 13
L.A. Rams at Arizona Under (47.5) L.A. Rams 34, Arizona 7
Oakland at Kansas City Under (49.5) Kansas City 40, Oakland 9
L.A. Chargers at Denver Over (38.5) Denver 23, L.A. Chargers 20

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 14 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: 50 ½ to 47
Denver at Houston: 40 ½ to 42 ½
Miami at N.Y. Jets: 44 to 46
Pittsburgh at Arizona: 45 ½ to 43 ½
Kansas City at New England: 50 ½ to 49
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: 44 ½ to 43

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 14 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Washington at Green Bay: Over 88%
Miami at N.Y. Jets: Over 87%
Baltimore at Buffalo: Over 83%
Denver at Houston: Over 83%
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: Under 79%
Carolina at Atlanta: Under 78%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (75 percent) in the Cincinnati at Cleveland matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in San Francisco at New Orleans (68 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 14

Week 13 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-4 29-34
NFC vs. NFC 2-0 20-21
AFC vs. AFC 1-1 17-17-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-3 26-26

Week 14 Action

Baltimore at Buffalo: It will be offense vs. defense when the Ravens invade Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park on Sunday. We only need to look back at last Sunday to see how well that worked out, as Baltimore MVP candidate quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens won 20-17 over the defensive-minded 49ers. This one will be on the road in Buffalo, and the Bills have four 'under' results in six home game sthis season, while posting a 4-1 under mark across the past five overall. They have allowed just 12 total points in their past two home games, but that was against the Broncos and Redskins. Obviously Jackson and the Ravens provide a much bigger challenge. Baltimore had posted 30 or more points in five straight games until their 20-point showing last week against the Niners. The Ravens have averaged 44.6 PPG in four games this season as road favorites and the over has produced a 4-0 record in those contests.

San Francisco at New Orleans: Speaking of the Niners, they'll renew acquaintances with QB Drew Brees and the Saints down in the Big Easy. The 49ers hit the 'under' in last week's road game, and the under is now 4-2 across the past six away from home, including 3-1 in the past four. While their defense hasn't been as dominant as earlier in the season, allowing 106 total points - or 21.2 PPG - across the past five games, they still showed how much they can dominate in a battle against the Packers Nov. 24, allowing just eight points. The under is 3-1 in four games east of the Mississippi River this season, and this will be their fifth and final game in such situation. Even though New Orleans has been a great over bet at home historically, the club has watched its total results produce a stalemate (3-3) through six games at the Superdome this season.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: The Bengals and Browns will battle twice in the final four weeks of the season. Last season the Browns swept the series with the 'over' going 1-0-1. However, the 'under' is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings at FirstEnergy Stadium. In the past nine meetings, the winning team has managed 30.4 points while the losing side has posted 12.4 points, and the 'under' is 5-3-1 during that span. The under is 3-1 across Cleveland's past four outings, and the offense has managed just 21 or fewer points in five of the past six, and eight of their 12 outings overall. The Bengals posted 22 points last week in their win over the Jets, their first time with more than 17 points since Oct. 6. The 'under' has hit in three in a row for the Bengals, and is 6-0 in six road games this season, while going 8-3-1 in 12 games overall.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers and Falcons just met on Nov. 17, and Atlanta came away with a 29-3 road victory as the 'under' hit. That's one of five under results in the past six for the Falcons. They have also hit the under in five of their six games this season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 17.6 PPG in six home dates. As far as the Panthers are concerned, they're in freefall, and this will be their first game without fired head coach Ron Rivera. We'll see if the coaching regime change sparks more in the way of offense. The Panthers are averaging just 17.8 PPG over the past four outings. Defense has been another issue, as they cannot stop anyone. They have allowed 20 or more points in eight straight games, and 11 of 12 games overall. As such, the over is 6-2 across the past eight outings, although one of those unders was, of course, the battle with the Falcs.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: It's a rematch of their Nov. 3 battle, and the Dolphins look for another win over their rivals. Miami won 26-18 in the first meeting at Hard Rock Stadium, an 'over' result. The over has actually hit in three straight for Miami, as their offense has come alive with totals of 20, 34 and 37 while defensively they're still poor, yielding 37, 41 and 31. The Jets were humming along with three straight 34-point performances on offense until they stumbled in Cincinnati of all places, falling 22-6. The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings at MetLife Stadium between these AFC East rivals.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: The Colts have been very banged up, but they'll likely get RB Marlon Mack (hand) back this week. The offense has been a little listless over the past two, going for 17 points in each outing, both losses. However, the Bucs are among the worst against the pass. Still, Indy has hit the 'under' in three of their past four road outings. This will be the first of three road games in the final four outings for the Colts. The Bucs managed 28 points last week in Jacksonville, as they did their part in trying to hit the 'over'. However, they allowed just 11 points, a season best, and that put a stop to an 8-0 'over' run for Tampa. The over is 4-0 in the past four at Raymond James Stadium since an under in Week 1 against the 49ers.

L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are making a change back to rookie QB Gardner Minshew, as they try to jump-start the offense after an 11-point effort against the Bucs. They have managed just 3, 13, 20 and 11 across the past four outings, hitting the under in two of four. That's because their defense has been horrific, yielding 26, 33, 42 and 28. Perhaps the change at QB helps somewhat, but they need to learn how to tackle again, too. The Bolts are struggling mightily, too, and they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games. The under is 3-1 in four games for the Bolts in the Eastern or Central Time Zones this season, too.

Kansas City at New England: The Chiefs enter play with back-to-back under results for the first time this season, mainly due to an impressive turnaround defensively, yielding just 17 and 9 in the past two games against the Chargers and Raiders. The Patriots are a completely different animal, however. Remember, in the past three meetings in this series since Sept. 7, 2017 we have seen a 42-27 win by the Chiefs in Foxboro, a 43-40 win by the Patriots on Oct. 14, 2018 and a 37-31 win in overtime in last season's AFC Championship Game. The over has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, too. For the Chiefs, the over has cashed in 12 of the past 16 on the road, and is 12-3-1 in their past 16 as a road 'dog. It's the complete opposite for the Patriots, with the under 17-6 in the past 23 or New England as a favorite, and 7-3 in the past 10 at home.

Pittsburgh at Arizona: The Steelers made a change to QB Devlin Hodges Iast week and it paid off with a 20-13 win, and an 'under' result. That's four straight under results for the Steelers, and the under has hit in 9-3 in their 12 games overall. For the Cardinals, they hit the under last week in a loss at home to the Rams, scoring a season-low seven points. The last time they scored in single digits they rebounded with 25 points in the following game, an 'over' result. The over is 4-2 in six games at home for the Cardinals.

Tennessee at Oakland: The Titans have not only been competitive since changing from QB Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, they have been one of the better teams in the league. They were blanked in Denver on Oct. 13, so head coach Mike Vrabel made the decision to go to Tannehill. He might have earned himself Coach of the Year honors, as they have won five of six since, and they have scored 20 or more points during the span, including 35, 42 and 31 across the past three, all covers and 'over' results. The over is 6-0 in the past six for Tennessee since moving to Tannehill. The Raiders offense has disappeared in the past three outings, averaging just 9.7 PPG. However, defensively they're still challenged, allowing a total of 74 points in the past two. That bodes well for another Tennessee 'over' result.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with a spread of nine points or more for Week 13, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 42 to 46 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Packers offense has been a bit erratic lately, scoring 31 points last week after just eight in the previous outing. They hit the over last week as a result of a 31-point outburst against the Giants, and they'll face another sub-.500 team this week. The over is 19-7 in Green Bay's past 26 against losing teams, as that's when QB Aaron Rodgers and the offense really shines. The Redskins found a running game last week, and we'll see if they can continue to make progress in that area on the road. They went for a season-high 29 points in last week's win at skidding Carolina, and they're averaging a respectable 24.0 PPG across the past two outings. For the Redskins, the under is 4-1 in the past five instances they have been a double-digit underdog, although the over hit last week in their outright win in the situation, and also in Week 1, a 32-27 setback in Philadelphia.

Denver at Houston (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have seen the over hit in three of the past four, mainly because their defense is showing some signs of wear. They have allowed 20, 20 and 27 across the past three, and the offense is a little better lately, too. They've posted 24, 23, 3 and 23 across the past four, including last week's 23-20 win over the Chargers in rookie QB Drew Lock's first-career start. The Texans have hit for 28, 20, 7, 26, 27, 23, 31 and 53 in the past eight games, with that lone single-digit anomaly a blowout loss against Jackson and the Ravens. This will be Houston's first game as a double-digit favorite this season.

Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings blasted the Lions 42-30 at Ford Field on Oct. 20 in the first meeting. This will be just the third time they're favored by 10 or more points, and there isn't a ton to glean in that department. They hit the under in a Thursday night game as a 16.5-point favorite vs. the Redskins on Oct. 24, and the over hit in their 27-23 win over the Broncos on Nov. 17. They are 0-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Lions haven't been a double-digit 'dog all season, but the over is 2-0 in their two games as an underdog by seven or more points, so there's that.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): See below

Under the Lights

Seattle at L.A. Rams (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Seahawks and Rams battle for the second time this season. In the first game in Seattle on Oct. 3, also a primetime game, the Seahawks edged the Rams 30-29 on a Thursday as the 'over' easily connected. The Rams offense gained some confidence last week with 34 points in Arizona, which was just one point less than they have combined in their previous three outings. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven for the Rams, as the defense has allowed 10 or fewer points in four of the past six, too. For the Seahawks, they have hit the 'over' in three of the past four outings, scoring 40, 27, 17 and 37, while yielding 34, 24, 9 and 30.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Giants and Eagles will square off in a less than attractive MNF game, but the games all bet the same. This will be the first of two meetings over the final four regular-season games. As a double-digit favorite the Eagles have hit the over in two of three situations. The Eagles defense allowed a stunning 37 points last week to the previously impotent Dolphins offense. The G-Men have hit the over in four of the past five games, and the over is 1-0 in their previous game as a double-digit underdog back on Oct. 10 in New England, also a primetime game. The defense has been abysmal for the Giants lately, allowing 27 or more points in seven of the past eight games, and 10 or 12 overall. The over is 2-1 in New York's three previous divisional games this season. Make a note that QB Eli is expected to start this Monday for New York.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Seahawks at Rams
Matt Blunt

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It's always great this time of year when a big division game gets flexed into the SNF spot, and that's precisely what we've got this week with Seattle going on the road to face the Rams. A national audience saw Seattle play well enough to get by Minnesota on MNF last week, as that game vaulted the Seahawks into the top spot in the conference at the moment. Whether Seattle stays there is another question entirely, but if they are able to beat a desperate Rams team in LA this week, that will definitely go a long way.

The Rams are still in survival mode right now as their only hope to get back to the playoffs is through a Wild Card spot, and they may have to win out to do so. LA kept that hope alive with a dominating win from start to finish over Arizona last week, and with road dates vs Dallas and San Francisco on deck, the path is far from easy.

Yet, judging from the early market action this week, the Rams do have plenty of support in their corner this week, but will they get the job done?

Total Talk

This total has bounced around quite a bit this week as an opening number of 46.5 initially got bet up as high as 48.5 before 'under' support came back into have it currently sitting right back where it started at 46.5. A difference of opinion from bettors is ideal for the oddsmakers, as they can sweep up the juice on a spot like that no matter where it lands.

Going forward, it's tough to envision any other significant movement for this total the rest of the week, as it could bounce higher again, but chances are it hovers right around this 46.5 number. And with the division flip-flop theory suggesting the 'under' is the way to go after the first game – 30-29 Seattle win – easily cashed an 'over' ticket, looking on the low side of things is probably the only way to look.

I'm not that interested in it at the current price, but as more and more recreational action pours in over the weekend, I would not be surprised to see a move upwards again. After all, both sides are coming off efforts where they each put up 30+, and did have 59 points in the first meeting, and those tend to be some of the first things recreational bettors see/remember when handicapping this game. Should this total climb back up to 48 or higher I would be much more interested in going low, but at this current stage, it's an easy pass.

Side Spiel

The point spread on this game has seen significant movement as well, as the Rams have completely flipped to being currently listed as a -1 favorite now after opening up at +2.5/3. Hard not to take notice of a move like that considering the significance of this game in both the standings and television time slot, and it's a move that shouldn't be taken lightly.

It's understandable on multiple levels why the Rams have gotten plenty of support, as Seattle continues to have the statistical profile of a team that's winning more with smoke and mirrors then pure domination – a +36 point differential thanks in large part to a +10 turnover differential. The turnover differential is likely unsustainable, and being a side that's sitting at 10-2 SU this week with just a +36 point differential is highly unsustainable as well. I mean, the Rams come into this game at +33 and are just 7-5 SU. That's typically where teams like Seattle would be, but they've been on the right side of a lot of bounces this year.

At the same time, Rams support has come in because this is another week where LA's season is essentially on the line. A loss this week really puts them in a bind in terms of any Wild Card chance, especially with the two road games they've got on deck. But a victory over a somewhat fraudulent Seattle team could also work wonders in terms of momentum for Seattle going forward, and you've got to keep that in mind as well.

Final Thoughts

With the last three meetings between these two teams all been decided by five points or less, we can expect a close game in this one regardless. If you do remember back to that first meeting this year, LA probably should have won that game outright – one of those games where Seattle was on the right side of a few bounces/calls – and since then, I believe the Rams have had this rematch circled on their calendar.

Obviously, LA did not plan on having to fight for their playoff lives when this return match rolled around, but that situation only adds to the notion that they will aim to be at their best from the outset here.

With the way this line has already moved, it's a Rams ML play or nothing here, and even though it's far from the best of the number now, I do think LA is the right side.

Best Bet: Rams Money-Line (-110)

[StarDust Bum]

Circa Picks - Week 14
December 7, 2019
By VI News

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4 · Week 5 · Week 6 · Week 7 · Week 8 · Week 9

Week 10 · Week 11 · Week 12 · Week 13

Week 14

1) L.A. Rams PK (579)

2) San Francisco +2.5 (516)

3) Tennessee -2.5 (439)

4) Buffalo +5.5 (415)

5) Tie - Kansas City +3/New England -3 (406)

CIRCA - WEEK 14 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Dallas (-3) 96 Chicago (+3) 66
Baltimore (-5.5) 382 Buffalo (+5.5) 415
Washington (+12.5) 183 Green Bay (-12.5) 226
Denver (+8.5) 304 Houston (-8.5) 129
San Francisco (+2.5) 516 New Orleans (-2.5) 377
Cincinnati (+7.5) 380 Cleveland (-7.5) 171
Carolina (+3) 129 Atlanta (-3) 308
Detroit (+13) 216 Minnesota (-13) 122
Miami (+5.5) 268 N.Y. Jets (-5.5) 143
Indianapolis (+3) 280 Tampa Bay (-3) 282
L.A. Chargers (-3) 150 Jacksonville (+3) 172
Kansas City (+3) 406 New England (-3) 406
Pittsburgh (-2.5) 285 Arizona (+2.5) 374
Tenneessee (-2.5) 439 Oakland (+2.5) 288
Seattle (PK) 368 L.A. Rams (PK) 576
N.Y. Giants (+9) 212 Philadelphia (-9) 128

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%
5 2-3 13-12 52%
6 2-3 15-15 50%
7 2-2-1 17-17-1 50%
8 3-2 20-19-1 51%
9 0-5 20-24-1 45%
10 1-3-1 21-27-2 43%
11 4-1 25-28-2 47%
12 3-2 28-30-2 48%
13 4-1 32-31-2 51%