Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Too-early 2020 baseball over/under in totals:

— Mariners 66.5

— Cardinals 88.5

— Rays 92.5

— Rangers 75.5

— Blue Jays 73.5

— Nationals 89.5

Quote of the Day:
“The big lesson in life…is never be scared of anyone or anything.”
Frank Sinatra; Thursday would’ve been his 104th birthday

Friday’s quiz
Before this season, who was the only Baltimore Ravens’ QB to throw 30+ TD passes in a season?

Thursday’s quiz
Lamar Jackson played his college football at Louisville.

Wednesday’s quiz
Steve Spurrier coached the Washington Redskins for two seasons.

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Friday’s list of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……..

13) This year, if your college basketball team is making 33.3% of their 3’s, they’re 156th in country. Last year, teams that shot 33.3% on the arc were 225th.

Moving the arc back has created more missed shots; I’m wondering if more long rebounds has resulted in more fast breaks going the other way.

12) Florida Atlantic hired Willie Taggart as its new football coach; FAU will be his 5th head coaching job in 11 years, making him the Larry Brown of college football.

2010-12: Western Kentucky: 16-20, 13-11 Sun Belt
2013-16: South Florida: 24-25, 18-14 AAC
2017: Oregon 7-5, 4-5 Pac-12
2018-19: Florida State 9-12, 6-9 ACC

Total: 56-62, 44-42 conference

11) Apparently Dallas Mavericks’ star Luke Doncic is the best player in the NBA who doesn’t have a shoe contract, which means his bank account will get a lot bigger fairly soon, as all the sneaker companies try to sign him up.

10) Home teams won the first ten Big 14 conference games so far this season; Michigan looked like a damn good team until they went to Louisville/Illinois.

9) The more I think about it, the more I like the 0:08 half court rule that the NBA has; makes a team get into motion a little quicker, not just walk the ball up the court.

8) I’m mystified that Harold Baines is in the Hall of Fame, but Dale Murphy isn’t.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Mets signed P Rick Porcello to a 1-year, $10M contract.
— Bronx re-signed OF Brett Gardner to a 1-year, $12.5m deal.

6) It is December 13 and Yale has already played four OT games this season, winning three of them. Bulldogs won their last six games overall, are 9-3 vs schedule #83.

5) Baseball will have some rules changes this year; a big one for September is the elimination of the 40-man roster. Rosters will be capped at 28 in September.

4) Another rule change will be that relievers having to face 3+ hitters in an appearance; it’ll reduce the often-tedious L-R-L pitching changes that stretch out the end of games.

In exchange for that, rosters all season increase from 25 to 26 players.

3) Handicapping bowl games can be dicey; you don’t know how excited a team or its fans are about their particular matchup. Iowa State sold out of its allotment of tickets for the Camping World Bowl against Notre Dame; safe to say that people in Ames are excited about this game.

2) NBA is putting a G-League team in Mexico City, starting next season. Very high altitude in Mexico City; the Nuggets don’t have a G-League affiliate yet. Maybe they do now.

1) Ravens 42, Jets 21
— Baltimore wins the AFC North.
— Lamar Jackson completed 15 passes, five of them for TD’s.
— Only 8 of Ravens’ 59 plays came on third down.
— Jets scored a TD on aa blocked punt.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


SACK IT TO ME

Another week and another bet against Kyle Allen getting sacked into oblivion. The Carolina quarterback has been sacked 21 times over his last four games and has been taken down on average of four times a game over his 11 starts.

The Seattle Seahawks have an even worse pressure rate than the Panthers, allowing opposing defenses to pressure Russell Wilson at a 36-percent rate which is the third-worst in the league.

Allen is 4-0 O/U on sacks totals of 5.5 in his last four games and we hope the trend continues into Week 16. We are riding the Over 5.5 sacks on the Seahawks/Panthers matchup for Sunday afternoon.


A SWIFT KICK TO ALDRICK

The windiest conditions this Sunday belong to MetLife Stadium. The Dolphins and Giants will see wind speeds of 13.3 miles per hour on Sunday which could definitely disrupt each teams’ kicking game.

The Giants sit in dead-last in field goals attempted per game at 1.2 and their kicker, Aldrick Rosas is converting just 71 percent of his kicks with a long of 45 yards.

The Dolphins are attempting 1.8 field goals a game (23rd) and converting kicks at a 73-percent rate. They did, however, kick eight field goals last week and made seven which is more than half of Rosas’ season total of 15 attempts.

We like the Dolphins to kick the longest field goal (-130) and wouldn’t mind the Under 45.5 yards for the longest field goal scored.


LOCK PICKING

Last week, we won some money on Tom Brady’s interception to the Kansas City Chiefs. K.C. has been picking off opposing QBs at will of late, forcing seven INTs in its last three games (Rivers 4, Carr 2, Brady 1). This week, they get Denver rookie QB Drew Lock who has looked good out of the gates but has also thrown an interception in each of his two starts.

Since Week 12, the Chiefs’ opponents are averaging nearly 40 passes a game which could give Lock lots of opportunities to turn it over in through the air in what will be his first divisional road game. We actually like what Lock has done which is win straight up at +320 and at +175 in back-to-back weeks, but we think rookies will make mistakes at Arrowhead.

Take the Over 0.5 Drew Lock interceptions (-200). If you that is too juicy for your liking, add Kyle Allen Over 0.5 INTs for a -105 payout if your book lets you parlay player props.


GIVE IT AWAY

Last week, away favorites went 4-1 ATS pushing their monthly total to 17-9 (65%). On the year, road chalk has hit at 53%. This week, the New England Patriots (-9.5 @ CIN), Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5 @ WSH), Seattle Seahawks (-6.5 @ CAR), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 @ DET), Cleveland Browns (-3 @ ARZ), Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 @ LAC) and the Los Angeles Rams (-1.5 @ DAL) round out the list of road favorites.

Of these matchups, we are more confident with the Buccaneers. Tampa has the best run defense in the league and should stuff Detroit running back Bo Scarborough who is averaging nearly 20 carries a game since Week 12. The Bucs have the best chance to win if they force David Blough and his 38.3 QBR to keep up with Jameis Winston through the air.

Tampa has a great chance to cover 3.5 points against a Bottom-10 defense and an offense that gained just 231 yards last week. Ride the away favorites trend and take the Buccaneers -3.5.


OF MOSTERT AND MEN

San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert has separated himself with the 49ers RBBC and has been given the most opportunities of late. Niners coach Kyle Shannahan has said the RB has deserved the extra attention in the offense as Mostert has four touchdowns in his last three games.

Mostert saw 40 of his team’s 63 offensive snaps and had the only two RB red zone carries last week. This also comes on the heels of him seeing 74 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 13. This week the Monster will face a middle-of-the-pack Atlanta rush defense that doesn’t have anything to play for.

We are backing Mostert to score a rushing TD for the fourth straight game.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
December 13, 2019
By Micah Roberts

There’s a monster three-team parlay brewing in Las Vegas for Week 15 that every recreational bettor seems to have a piece of that is going to hit the sportsbooks hard with 6/1 payouts (Bet $100 to win $600). Of course, there’s also the 13/5 (Bet $100 to win $260) two-teamer that is going to cash along with it, teasers, straight bets and the three teams being the root to other teams in larger parlays.

Station Casinos and the South Point, sportsbooks that deal a large percentage of their handle to parlays, both have the Rams, Seahawks, and Patriots as their top public plays. CG Technology books are also seeing the same betting patterns.

“They’re laying -1 with the Rams and taking +2 with Dallas and +107 with the Cowboys money-line,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. It’s our most heavily bet game of the week and we have about a 3-to-1 ratio in ticket counts taking the Rams. Only the Seahawks at a 7-to-2 ticket count ratio is more on-sided,”

DiTommaso said the risk so far isn’t too bad (about $50,000 long) so far because of taking one large wager on the Cowboys.

It’s easy to understand the bettor's mindset with the Rams as the Cowboys ride a three-game losing streak with none of their six wins being against winning teams. It’s a bet-against situation that makes the wager justified and strengthened furthermore by the Rams laying a short price after convincing wins and covers in their last two games.

It appeared the Rams as we knew them were dead after a 45-6 beat-down at home by the Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 12 for all to see. But the Rams of the past two weeks look similar to last season's Super Bowl squad. Quarterback Jared Goff looks sharp again, his receivers are healthy and running back Todd Gurley is no longer on the load management program and has been unleashed the past two weeks with wins against the Cardinals and Seahawks.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis said their top public plays this week is “Rams, Rams, and Rams.”

One last note about the Rams that further justifies a wager on them by many bettors is going 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight road games.

The Seahawks wager this week has similar reasons as the Rams side. It’s a bet against the Panthers who have lost five straight (1-4 ATS) and a bet for the Seahawks coming off a loss. The Seahawks have won six of seven on the road this season (5-2 ATS) and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has gone from Seahawks -6 to -6.5.

The public Patriots support is kind of a surprise because they’ve failed to cover the spread in their last three games. Joe Public usually holds a grudge against teams like that. But what we have here is the 1-12 Bengals facing the Patriots who have lost their last two. Tom Brady losing three straight starts? It’s happened only once in his career and that was way back in 2002 when he lost four in a row.

In addition to the public jumping all over the Patriots, sharp money also laid the early number.

“We had sharp action laying the Patriots at -9.5, the Titans at -3 (vs. Texans), the Steelers laying -1.5 (vs. Bills), the Browns -2.5 (at Arizona) and the Falcons +11 (at San Francisco),” DiTommaso said. “They also laid -9.5 with the Chiefs, but another group immediately bet +10 with the Broncos after we moved it up.”

Station Casinos is the only book showing Falcons +11.

Davis at Caesars Palace said he’s had a couple of games with sharp groups on opposite sides such as the Texans-Titans battle for the AFC South lead and the Bears-Packers (-4.5) game. He’s also seen large action in the Raiders last game at Oakland against the Jaguars (+7 -120) and the over in the Titans game which has run from 49.5 to 51.5.

The Eagles are tied with the Cowboys for the NFC East lead at 6-7 so it’s an important road game at Washington.

“A really sharp guy laid -4.5 with the Eagles and when we got to -6 we found some Redskins money,” DiTommaso said.

Most of Las Vegas is dealing the Eagles at the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5.

Be sure to check the weather report before betting teams at places like Kansas City, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 12-0 ATS (14.29 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a dog coming off a road loss where they failed to cover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-12-1 ATS (-7.92 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 coming off a road win where they scored at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:
-- The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-11.94 ppg) since Dec 17, 2017 coming off a game where Carson Wentz threw at least 40 passes.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
-- The Patriots are 0-11-1 OU (-9.96 ppg) since Oct 09, 2016 off a loss.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 8-0 OU (8.81 ppg) since Oct 28, 2018 coming off a game where Jameis Winston threw at least 40 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 11-0 OU (8.55 ppg) since Dec 24, 2006 as a dog coming off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-20 OU (-7.05 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 when they threw for less than 215 yards last game.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
PLAY AGAINST: Teams which had at least 19 third down attempts last game and made fewer 50% of those teams are 52-72-7 ATS. Active against Philadelphia.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Chargers are 15-0 ATS (+10.13 ppg) as a dog when they are off a win as a favorite and they are averaging more than 27 points per game over their last three games.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Seahawks are 0-12 OU (-12.08 ppg) as a road favorite when they allowed at least five third down conversions in each of their last two games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 15 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather and Pros vs Joes
Patrick Everson

Dalvin Cook is working through a chest injury, but he's expected to play for Minnesota at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. If Cook sits out, that's worth a half-point to the line at The SuperBook.

NFL Week 15 has some banged-up running backs, though that’s not impacting the line in all cases. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Running back Dalvin Cook (chest) is expected to play Sunday’s road game against the Los Angeles Chargers. “Cook would be worth a half-point if he was to be out,” Osterman said. Minnesota is already down to -1.5, after opening -3.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) will miss his fourth straight game, but Osterman said that was factored into the opening line for Pittsburgh’s home game against Buffalo. Tight end Vance McDonald (concussion) is out, and running back James Conner (shoulder) is questionable after missing the last three games.

“Conner is worth a half-point if he plays. Nothing for McDonald.” The Steelers opened 1-point favorites in the Sunday nighter, got bet up to -2.5 early in the week, then back to -1 Friday.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Several defensive players are either out or questionable against Atlanta, including cornerback Richard Sherman and end Dee Ford. “The 49ers’ defense is why we’ve seen that line come down a half-point.” San Francisco is giving 10.5 points.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is again questionable as the Raiders prepare to host Jacksonville. Jacobs sat out last week’s home loss to Tennessee. “Jacobs would be worth a half-point.” Oakland is a 7-point favorite.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Wideout Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable at Cincinnati, which The SuperBook pegs worth a half-point if he sits. The Patriots are laying 10 points.


Weather Watch

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY: It’s gonna be really damn cold Sunday on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The high is 18 degrees, with winds of 10-15 mph that will surely make it feel chillier still. “The total has come down a half-point. But that total was put up on the low side initially, assuming that it would be really cold in Green Bay.” The total opened at 41 and ticked to 40.5.

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: The forecast calls for a 70 percent chance of snow and a high of just 28 degrees, and a modest 10 mph breeze probably won’t make it feel any warmer. “The total has come down 1.5 points” from the opener of 46.5. The first move was actually up to 47, but the total dipped to 45 by Thursday night.

MIAMI AT NEW YORK GIANTS: The weather generally looks OK for MetLife Stadium, though the wind could approach 20 mph, prompting The SuperBook to move the total from 47.5 to 46.5.

BUFFALO AT PITTSBURGH: This is the Sunday night game, and it will be a chilly one, with the temperature around 30 along with 10-15 mph winds at Heinz Field. “The total hasn’t moved off of 37. That was already the lowest total on the board. It’s hard to push it any lower.” However, by lunch hour Friday in Vegas, The SuperBook took the total down another tick to 36.5.


Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: “There is some sharp action on the Broncos, and the public has really been all over the Chiefs ever since it was announced that Patrick Mahomes is playing.” Mahomes suffered a hand injury in last week’s win at New England, but he expects to be good to go Sunday.

Kansas City opened -10.5, quickly surged to -11.5, then was bet down to -9 by midweek before hiking to -10 Friday morning. The SuperBook ticked back to 9.5 Friday afternoon.
Reverse Line Moves

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: “A small reverse line move here. We’re down to Eagles -5.5 from -6, but the public money has mostly been on the Eagles.”

ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: The move here is toward the Falcons, but the host Niners are drawing more cash. “The line opened 49ers -11.5 and is down to -10.5. However, the public money is on the 49ers.”

MINNESOTA AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: This line has been cut in half, from Vikings -3 to -1.5, but Minnesota has the bulk of the action. “The public money is on the Vikings, especially on parlays.”

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 15
Joe Williams

We're rounding the corner and heading for home in the final few weeks of the National Football League regular season. Several teams are already well eliminated from the playoff chase, and a few are only hanging on by a thread in the 'In the Hunt' list. The Thursday Night Football game between the New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens saw the 'over' connect for a second consecutive game, as the TNF results ended up 7-7 for the 2019 season (there are no more Thursday games remaining).

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 14 8-8 10-6 7-9

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 100-107-1 100-107-1 90-113-5

The 'over/under' ended up going 8-8 for Week 14, which is usually the death knell for public bettors who tend to favor 'over' plays. Anyone chasing the 'over' on Sunday Night was in trouble, which has been the norm this season. The 'under' is now 11-4 on the SNF game, although over bettors have made inroads with a 4-3 record over the past seven installments.

We did see an uptick in the first-half last week as the 'over' went 10-6 in the first 30 minutes but once again, the scoring slowed down in the second-half and that resulted in a 9-7 mark to the low side. On the season, the 'under' has trended ahead the first-half (107-100-1), moreso in second-half (113-90-5).

Division Bell

In the six divisional battles in Week 14, the edge went to the 'under' yet again - including the two primetime divisional battles between the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night and New York Giants-Philadephia Eagles on Monday night, with overtime to boot! The under is now 40-33 (54.8%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 14

Cincinnati at Cleveland Over (43.5) Cleveland 27, Cincinnati 19
Carolina at Atlanta Over (48) Atlanta 40, Carolina 20
Detroit at Minnesota Under (44) Minnesota 20, Detroit 7
Miami at N.Y. Jets Under (47) N.Y. Jets 22, Miami 21
Seattle at L.A. Rams Under (48) L.A. Rams 28, Seattle 12
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia Under (45) Philadelphia 23, N.Y. Giants 17 (OT)

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 15 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Houston at Tennessee: 47 ½ to 51 ½
Atlanta at San Francisco: 45 ½ to 48 ½
Indianapolis at New Orleans (MNF): 44 to 46 ½
Cleveland at Arizona: 47 to 49
Jacksonville at Oakland: 44 ½ to 46 ½
L.A. Rams at Dallas: 47 to 48 ½
Miami at N.Y. Giants: 48 to 46 ½
New England at Cincinnati: 40 to 41 ½
Tampa Bay at Detroit: 47 ½ to 46

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 15 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at San Francisco: Over 98%
Houston at Tennessee: Over 96%
Minnesota at L.A. Chargers: Over 95%
Cleveland at Arizona: Over 90%
Jacksonville at Oakland: Over 87%
Seattle at Carolina: Over 85%
Indianapolis at New Orleans (MNF): Over 84%
New England at Cincinnati: Under 84%
Tampa Bay at Detroit: Over 84%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (75 percent) in the Buffalo at Pittsburgh (SNF) matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Denver at Kansas City (74 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 15

Week 14 Total Results

Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 2-4 31-38
NFC vs. NFC 2-1 22-22
AFC vs. AFC 3-2 20-19-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 27-27

Week 15 Action

Tampa Bay at Detroit: We get an old NFC Central matchup in the Motor City on Sunday. The Lions have struggled offensively, starting third-string quarterback David Blough in the past two. The Lions started out 2-0-1 SU, but they're 1-9 SU since, mostly because their defense has been awful. They have given up at least 19 points in 11 straight games, and 32.2 points per game (PPG) across their past five games at Ford Field. The Bucs have scored 28 or more points in three straight, and five of the past six, and the defense has been shabby, too. Tampa has allowed 27 or more points on 10 separate occasions. It's no surprise the 'over' has connected in 10 of their past 11 outings.

Philadelphia at Washington: These teams haven't met since Week 1, which seems like a world ago for the Redskins. They posted 27 points in that setback in Philly, their second-highest point total of the season. The good news for the Redskins is that their defense has been much better recently, allowing 19.0 PPG across the past three after yielding 31 or more points in four of the first five games. However, the offense is still trying to find their way with rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, and they're averaging just 12.5 PPG across the past 10 outings. For the Eagles, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five on the road, but the under is 5-2 in the past seven inside the division. The under is 8-2 in Washington's past 10, and 5-1 in the past six against NFC foes.

Chicago at Green Bay: The last time these two sides met it was a 10-3 victory by the Packers at Soldier Field in the very first game of the NFL regular season back on a Thursday in Week 1. The Packers offense has improved over time, especially at home, posting 20, 24, 42, 23, 27, 27 and 21 in their seven home games this season. While the under is 4-1 in Green Bay's past five, it's been their defense which is the key. For the Bears, they have shown some signs of improvement on offense lately, posting 24 on Thanksgiving against Detroit and 31 against Dallas on Thursday night. They'll be rested and ready to go. Since that three-point stinker in Week 1 the Bears have managed 21.2 points per game in six outings at home.

Houston at Tennessee: The Texans and Titans square off in Nashville for sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Public bettors are expecting a high-scoring affair, too, as this total has been on the move from an open of 47.5 to 51.5 as of Saturday morning. The Titans offense has been on fire since making the change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill. Under Tannehill's leadership the Titans have posted 20 or more points in seven stragiht outings, going 6-1 SU while the 'over' has cashed in each of the seven outings. The offense has been particularly strong over the past four, posting 35, 42, 41 and 42 while allowing 20 or more points in six of the past seven. For the Texans, they're averaging 24.0 PPG on offense over the past three games, while yielding 29.5 PPG across the past four defensively.

Seattle at Carolina: The Panthers looked to be turning a corner with new QB Kyle Allen, but he has crashed back to Earth, the team fired head coach Ron Rivera and the defense has forgotten how to tackle and cover pass plays. The Panthers have yielded an un-Carolina-like 40, 29, 34, 29, 24, 20, 51, 26 and 27 across their past nine. The Seahawks hit the 'over' in their first two trips into the Eastern Time Zone, averaging 30.0 PPG, but they've scored just 22.0 PPG in their past two trips east while allowing just 14.5 PPG. In Seattle's past two road games they're also averaging just 14.5 PPG.

Miami at N.Y. Giants: The Dolphins offense has actually resembled an NFL-caliber offense lately, posting 20 or more points in four straight, hitting the 'over' in three of those games. That's a far cry from earlier in the season when they were the laughingstock of the league, posting just 42 total points over their first five outings. While the offense has improved, the defense is getting worse. They have yielded 22, 31, 41 and 37 over the past four contests. On the road they have allowed 27 or more points in four of their five outings, although the under is 3-2 in Miami's five games away from home. The Giants offense has been rather impotent for most of the season, but particularly so over the past three. They're averaging just 14.7 PPG across the past three, although the 'over' is 2-1 in the past three vs. AFC East foes.

Jacksonville at Oakland: The Raiders offense was humming along in October into early November, and Oakland was looking like a potential playoff team. However, Oakland went off the rails in an embarrasing 34-3 loss at N.Y. Jets back on Nov. 24 and they're yet to recover. The Raiders have averaging just 12.5 PPG across the past four outings, hitting the 'under' in three of those games. That's despite the defense, which has yielded 34, 40 and 42 over the past three. The Jaguars won't come close to approaching those totals, as these Cats have been rather toothless themselves. The Jags have posted 10, 11, 20, 13 and 3 over their past five outings, although three of their four highest offensive totals came from Sept. 29-Oct. 20, all on the road. The defense for the Jags has been putrid lately, too, allowing 45, 28, 42, 33 and 26 across the past five.

Minnesota at L.A. Chargers: The Bolts were able to hump up on the Jags last week, posting a season-high 45 points. In fact, their previous high was 30 points back in Week 1, so it was a rather shocking offensive performance. The over is 3-1 in the past four for the Bolts, as they're averaging 26.5 PPG on offense during the span while yielding 20.8 PPG defensively. The Vikings have posted 20 or more points in five straight, but they're coming off a surprising 20-7 win against the Lions which saw the 'under' easily hit, snapping a 4-0 over run. In their three previous games vs. AFC West foes this season, the over is a perfect 3-0, avearging 28.0 PPG while yielding 21.0 PPG.

L.A. Rams at Dallas: The Cowboys head into this must-win game with just 16.0 PPG across the past three outings, hitting the under in two of the past three. The under is 3-2 in the past five games at AT&T Stadium for the Cowboys. For the Rams, the under is on a 7-1 run thanks in part to an inconsistent offense, while the defense has been back after some early-season struggles. The Rams have yielded just 12, 7, 45, 7, 17, 10 and 10 across the past seven. Those 45 points came from Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, and not many...OK, no one...has a player like him this season. Some feel QB Dak Prescott has the potential to be just as dynamic, but the Cowboys have yet to beat a team over .500 so far this season.


Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of 10 points or more for Week 15, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 41.5 to 48.5 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

New England at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots are 'on to Cincinnati' after falling at home to the Chiefs. It's like deja vu from a few years ago. The Pats have plenty of video of the Bengals, as you likely heard of their latest video flap, which seems much ado about nothing. The Bengals have scored 19, 22, 10, 10, 13, 10, 17, 17 over their past seven, and they haven't scored more than 23 points all season. It's unlikely the six-time Super Bowl champs have to cheat to beat a one-win Bengals side. The under is 3-1 in the past four for the Bengals, and 7-3-2 over the past 12. The under is also 3-1 in the past four for the Patriots, mainly due to the offense struggling. They have posted just 16, 22, 13, 17 and 20 over the past five.

Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have changed over the rookie QB Drew Lock, and suddenly they're a juggernaut on offense. They have averaging 30.5 PPG with the former Mizzou star under center. Now, he returns to the state he starred in college. The defense has allowed 19 or morep oints in four of the past five, as the 'over' is 4-1 during thye span. These teams met on Oct. 17 on a Thursday, and that's the game QB Patrick Mahomes suffered his dislocated kneecap on a quarterback sneak. You can bet that play won't happen this week at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense has been sharp over the past three, including last week's win in New England, allowing just 14.0 PPG over the past three for a 3-0 under mark during the stretch. The 'under' is 2-0 in both of Kansas City's games as a double-digit favorite this season.

Atlanta at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. ET): The 49ers are back home and looking to keep up their good work on offense. They rolled up 48 points last week in New Orleans, and they scored 37 and 36 in their previous two games at home. A lot of the headlines for the 49ers have been made by their defense, but lately it's been the offense doing it for Frisco. Speaking of the defense, more than half of their starting defense is nicked up and in danger of missing this week's game, so there is opportunity for the Falcons. They showed signs of life by hanging a 40-burger on Carolina last week at the Mercedes-Benz Dome. The Niners have been a double-digit favorite three times, with the over cashing in each of the past two instances. The Falcons were a double-digit 'dog just once this season, a stunning 26-9 straight-up win in New Orleans on Nov. 10.


Under the Lights

Buffalo at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Bills make their first appearance on Sunday Night Football since 2007. This one was flexed in to the SNF spot because of the playoff implications, but it might be a low-scoring game. The under is 5-1 in the past six for the Bills, as the defense has been sick lately. Buffalo is allowing just 24, 15, 3, 20, 19 and 9 over the past six. For Pittsburgh, undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges makes another start. He started on SNF before, a 24-17 road win against the Chargers, an 'under' result. The under is 3-0 in Hodges' three NFL starts so far, as he has posting 23, 20 and 24, while the defense has stepped up to allow just 17, 13 and 17. Pittsburgh is actually on a 5-0 under run, and the under is 10-3 in their 13 games overall, as the defense has picked up the pace with offensive stars leaving in the offense and then the remaining stars injured this season. Head coach Mike Tomlin has done an unbelievable job with this bunch.

Indianapolis at New Orleans (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Colts have hit the 'over' in three of the past four, as the defense has gone south lately. They have yielded 38 and 31 across the past two outings, while the offense is averaging 25.5 PPG across the past four. For the Saints, they're a hard team to figure. They have allowed just 18 and 17 in their past two on the road, but they were shelled for 46 at home last week, and they're allowing 35.0 PPG across the past three under the Superdome roof. One thing that remains consistent - the offense. They have posted 46, 26, 34 and 34 across the past four outings, hitting the over in three of the past four. In their only other home game against an AFC South foe they hit the over vs. Houston in Week 1, 30-28.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Betting Stats heading into Sun Wk 15:

Road Teams: 116-88-5 ATS
Home Teams: 88-116-5 ATS

Favorites: 92-112-5 ATS
Underdogs: 112-92-5 ATS

Home Faves: 52-76-5 ATS
Home Dogs: 36-40 ATS

Road Faves: 40-36 ATS
Road Dogs: 76-52-5 ATS

O/U: 101-108


*********************************


by: Josh Inglis


EDELMAN OF HONOR

We haven’t played a Julian Edelman total all year and that’s a shame because he has been a bankable WR on the Over. The New England receiver has seen double-digit targets in eight straight games and will face a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has allowed slot receivers Cooper Kupp, Cole Beasley, Jarvis Landry and Dede Westbrook to average 6.25 catches for 112 yards.

Edelman is questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Patriots which usually doesn’t mean much in New England. The Bengals should be a layup for the Pats, but with how poorly the offense has been playing all year, Tom Brady will need the reigning Super Bowl MVP to suit up on Sunday.

Monitor the WR’s status for Sunday and if the receiver is a go, it should be in a non-limited roll. We are willing to take the Over on an Edelman reception total below eight and a yardage total below 86 yards. Edelman has topped 85 yards and 7.5 receptions in four of his last six games.


A LAME DUCK

We hit the Pittsburgh Steelers team total Over 21.5 last week and that’s a ride we don’t want to be on again. Devlin Hodges has attempted 20, 21 and 19 passes over his three starts this year, he won’t have JuJu Smith-Schuster again this week and he faces the Bills’ No. 5 DVOA pass defense.

Hodges’ yardage total sits at 195.5 yards which seems a bit high considering he is averaging 165 passing yards in his three starts versus the No. 20, No. 13 and No. 29 DVOA passing defenses.

The Steelers are content to pound the ball as their 35 rushes a game over their last three weeks is tied for the most in the league. Take Hodges' Under on his 195.5 passing yardage total on this Sunday night showdown.


EAGLE AID

Even at 6-7, the Philadelphia Eagles have a chance to win the NFC East. It may be a difficult task for this offense to win games down the stretch with an array of injuries to its receiving core, running backs and offensive linemen.

RB Jordan Howard is expected to miss Week 15 against Washington, which leaves Miles Sander and Boston Scott to split carries behind an offensive line that could be without its most important piece. PFF’s No. 2 tackle Lane Johnson has been ruled out for the contest meaning Carson Wentz will likely see more pressure than the team’s 30 percent average on the year (18th most).

Washington’s defense isn’t as bad as other basement-dwelling teams as it sits 19th in total DVOA. On top of playing the Under on the Eagles’ team total of 23.5, we are going to fade Eagles QB Carson Wentz and play his Under 262.5 passing yards as we don’t think he has the supporting cast to do it this week.


ONE, TWO, THREE, FOURNETTE

The lifeless Jacksonville Jaguars will not have the services of their leading wideout D.J. Chark this week, leaving a glaring hole in the offenses’ ability to stretch the field. With QB Gardner Minshew looking at Dede Westbrook, Keenan Cole and Chris Conley as his top WRs, we imagine the best course for this offense is to run it through Leonard Fournette this week against the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders have a bad pass defense (31st) and an equally bad rush defense (31st) so Doug Marrone getting Fournette involved in the passing and rushing game should be a priority. The Jags RB has averaged 18 carries and nearly 10 targets a game over the last three weeks.

We like the Over on Fournette’s total yards of 118.5 yards in a game that could see a lot of yardage/points if both defenses lay down as they have in previous weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 15
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Bears at Packers (-4 ½, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) can move one step closer towards wrapping up the NFC North title with a victory at home. The Packers rebounded from the Week 12 beatdown at the hands of the 49ers to take care of the Giants and Redskins the last two weeks. Green Bay failed to cash as 13-point favorites last Sunday in a 20-15 triumph over Washington, but the Packers are the only team in the NFL that has not suffered consecutive ATS losses this season.

It may be too little, too late for the defending NFC North champion Bears (7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS) to make the playoffs, but Chicago is riding a three-game winning streak heading into Lambeau Field. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is coming off consecutive three-touchdown performances against the Lions and Cowboys, while helping Chicago pick up only its fourth cover of the season in a Week 14 home underdog victory over Dallas, 31-24.

The Packers held off the Bears in the season opener at Soldier Field, 10-3 as 3 ½-point underdogs. Green Bay owns a 6-1 record in its last seven meetings with Chicago dating back to 2016, as the Packers have won three straight home matchups. The Bears are listed as a road underdog for the third time this season, but are 0-2 SU/ATS with losses to the Eagles and Rams.

Best Bet: Packers 27, Bears 21


Texans at Titans (-3, 51) – 1:00 PM EST

The race for the top spot in the AFC South likely won’t be decided on Sunday, regardless of who wins this important contest at Nissan Stadium. These two division rivals hook up twice in the final three weeks of the season, as Tennessee (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) has caught fire following a slow start. The Titans made a change at quarterback seven games ago as Ryan Tannehill has led Tennessee to a 6-1 SU/ATS record to pull into first place tie, while averaging 37.5 points per game during this current four-game winning streak.

The Texans (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) fell into the expected letdown spot last week after defeating the Patriots as a home underdog in Week 13. Denver rolled Houston, 38-24 as eight-point underdogs to prevent the Texans from winning three consecutive games for the first time this season. The good news for the Texans this week is they have yet to drop back-to-back contests in 2019, while cashing in five of seven opportunities in the underdog role.

The home team has captured the last six matchups since 2016, as the Texans have been limited to 17 points or fewer in their past three visits to Nashville, all losses. Tennessee is currently on a 7-0 streak to the OVER with Tannehill at quarterback, while Houston is 2-1 to the OVER in three road games with totals closing at 50 or higher.

Best Bet: Houston 28, Tennessee 20


Rams at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

Two teams going in opposite directions heading down the stretch, yet the colder team has a clearer path to the playoffs than the hotter squad. The Rams (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) captured the NFC title last season, but need to likely win out and receive help to return to the postseason for the third consecutive year. Los Angeles is fresh off its fifth win in the past seven games after routing Seattle last Sunday, 28-12 as short home favorites. The Rams’ defense has stepped up in the second half of the season by limiting six of the previous seven opponents to 17 points or less, while riding a 7-1 run to the UNDER the last eight games.

The Cowboys (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) don’t own a winning record with three weeks remaining in the season, but still have the inside track on hosting a first round game and grabbing the NFC East title. Dallas can themselves by beating Philadelphia on the road next week for the season sweep of the Eagles, but the Cowboys need to put an end to a three-game skid immediately. The Cowboys still have not defeated a team that sits above the .500 mark, while possessing a dreadful 0-7 record this season when scoring below 30 points.

Los Angeles bounced Dallas from the playoffs last season with a 30-22 home victory in the divisional round. The Rams covered as 7 ½-point favorites after jumping out to a 23-7 lead before the Cowboys made it interesting late. L.A. has put together an 18-5 road record under head coach Sean McVay, which includes a 35-30 triumph at AT&T Stadium in 2017 as five-point underdogs.

Best Bet: Rams 23, Cowboys 20


BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 49 – Browns at Cardinals

This total moved up from 47 earlier in the week as a pair of Heisman Trophy winners from Oklahoma square off with Baker Mayfield facing Kyler Murray. The Browns have not cashed consecutive OVERS this season, coming off a 27-19 victory over the Bengals last week on a 43 total. Cleveland is favored on the road for the fourth time this season as the Browns have scored 13, 19, and 23 points in those games, while the lone OVER came in a 24-19 setback at Denver on a 39 total. The Cardinals have tallied only 24 points in the past two losses to the Steelers and Rams as their offense has faltered since November.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Tampa Bay is trying to salvage a rough season by winning four of its past five games to improve to 6-7. The Buccaneers travel to Detroit to face the Lions, who are riding a six-game losing streak. Tampa Bay opened as a four-point favorite when the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released Week 15 lines last week. However, the Bucs have moved up to six-point favorites, which is the biggest number Tampa Bay is laying this season.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Seahawks are coming off their first road loss of the season in a 28-12 defeat to the Rams last week. Seattle hits the highway once again on Sunday to face struggling Carolina, as the Seahawks are 3-0 in the Eastern Time Zone this season. However, the Seahawks were no more than a two-point favorite in any of those wins against the Steelers, Browns, and Eagles. Carolina has dropped five consecutive games since a 5-3 start, but the Panthers are six-point home underdogs as they are receiving points at Bank of America Stadium for the first time since a season-opening loss to the Rams.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Broncos have been one of the best bets in the NFL since early October by covering seven of their last nine games. Denver is 2-0 SU/ATS with rookie Drew Lock starting at quarterback the last two weeks, as the former University of Missouri standout returns to his home state to face the Chiefs. However, Kansas City has owned Denver through the years by winning eight straight meetings since 2015, including a 30-6 blowout in October. The Chiefs have won nine games this season and covered eight times in those victories as Kansas City is a nine-point favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Circa Picks - Week 15
December 14, 2019
By VI News

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4 · Week 5 · Week 6 · Week 7 · Week 8 · Week 9

Week 10 · Week 11 · Week 12 · Week 13 · Week 14

Week 15

1) L.A. Rams -1.5 (516)

2) Buffalo +1.5 (472)

3) Seattle -6 (458)

4) Miami -3.5 (432)

5) Oakland -6.5 (413)

CIRCA - WEEK 15 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Jets (+16.5) 64 Baltimore (-16.5) 35
Tampa Bay (-3.5) 304 Detroit (+3.5) 129
Philadelphia (-4.5) 293 Washington (+4.5) 386
Chicago (+4.5) 113 Green Bay (-4.5) 258
New England (-9.5) 406 Cincinnati (+9.5) 404
Houston (+3) 130 Tennessee (-3) 281
Seattle (-6) 458 Carolina (+6) 399
Denver (+9.5) 432 Kansas City (-9.5) 135
Miami (+3.5) 432 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) 125
Buffalo (+1.5) 472 Pittsburgh (-1.5) 280
Jacksonville (+6.5) 127 Oakland (-6.5) 413
Cleveland (-2.5) 275 Arizona (+2.5) 167
Atlanta (+10.5) 344 San Francisco (-10.5) 121
L.A. Rams (-1.5) 516 Dallas (+1.5) 288
Minnesota (-2.5) 339 L.A. Chargers (+2.5) 390
Indianapolis (+8.5) 168 New Orleans (-8.5) 171

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%
5 2-3 13-12 52%
6 2-3 15-15 50%
7 2-2-1 17-17-1 50%
8 3-2 20-19-1 51%
9 0-5 20-24-1 45%
10 1-3-1 21-27-2 43%
11 4-1 25-28-2 47%
12 3-2 28-30-2 48%
13 4-1 32-31-2 51%
14 4-1 36-32-2 53%
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 15
December 14, 2019
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4 · Week 5 · Week 6 · Week 7 · Week 8 · Week 9

Week 10 · Week 11 · Week 12 · Week 13 · Week 14

Week 15

1) L.A. Rams -1 (1139)

2) Buffalo +2.5 (1127)

3) New England -9.5 (773)

4) Seattle -6.5 (757)

5) Minnesota -2.5 (728)


SUEPRCONTEST - WEEK 15 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Jets (+15) 145 Baltimore (-15) 131
Tampa Bay (-3) 640 Detroit (+3) 167
Philadelphia (-4.5) 504 Washington (+4.5) 310
Chicago (+4) 571 Green Bay (-4) 634
New England (-9.5) 773 Cincinnati (+9.5) 195
Houston (+3) 681 Tennessee (-3) 621
Seattle (-6.5) 757 Carolina (+6.5) 250
Denver (+9) 662 Kansas City (-9) 311
Miami (+3.5) 691 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) 201
Buffalo (+2.5) 1127 Pittsburgh (-2.5) 432
Jacksonville (+6.5) 209 Oakland (-6.5) 711
Cleveland (-2.5) 428 Arizona (+2.5) 344
Atlanta (+10.5) 662 San Francisco (-10.5) 218
L.A. Rams (-1) 1139 Dallas (+1) 469
Minnesota (-2.5) 728 L.A. Chargers (+2.5) 595
Indianapolis (+8) 288 New Orleans (-8) 346

SUPERCONTEST - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 3-2 6-4 60%
3 3-2 9-6 60%
4 2-3 11-9 55%
5 3-2 14-11 56%
6 2-3 16-14 53%
7 3-2 19-16 54%
8 2-3 21-19 53%
9 0-4-1 21-23-1 47%
10 1-3-1 22-26-2 46%
11 4-1 26-27-2 49%
12 4-1 30-28-2 52%
13 2-3 32-31-2 51%
14 4-1 36-32-2 53%
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 15
Tony Mejia

Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5/45), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: After a huge win in New England, Kansas City looks to match its longest winning streak of the season by holding serve against a Denver team that has covered in five of six and comes off back-to-back upsets over the Chargers and Texans. The Broncos have beaten exclusively AFC teams this season and have ridden rookie Drew Lock to a resurgent finish. Rookies are 1-6 at Arrowhead since 1950 and Patrick Mahomes has only lost one of his 11 starts against divisional foes in his career, so trends aren’t in the visitors’ favor here.

The Chiefs come in ranked in sixth in total offense while the Vic Fangio-led Broncos have the 10th-rated defense. Kansas City won 30-6 at Mile High on Oct. 17 and may ride its ground game more here since Mahomes has been nursing a bruised passing hand after being struck last week. DE Frank Clark will play for Kansas City after nursing a stomach ailment, while TE Noah Fant will suit up for Denver after getting his foot stepped on last week. Snow is almost certain to play a role in this one, which may help the Broncos’ secondary deal with Tyreek Hill. Hill’s duel with CB Chris Harris will likely be this contest’s most compelling individual matchup.

Bears at Packers (-4.5/40), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Green Bay has won six of seven in this series against an NFC North rival, which includes its 10-3 win on the opening Thursday night of the season. Aaron Rodgers was still getting acquainted with first-year head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense and has a 23 TD/2 INT ratio entering this Week 15 clash, one of the best in league history. The Packers are closing in on a playoff berth in their final home game of the regular season and have only dropped one game at Lambeau this season. Green Bay is 4-3 ATS at home after failing to properly put away the Redskins last week as it the Aaron Jones-led run game and the its defense past rookie QB Dwayne Haskins’ Redskins.

The Pack will probably have to work harder and risk more against a Bears’ defense that remains among the NFL’s most respected. With games against the Chiefs and Vikings ahead, Chicago must be at its best to try and overcome its four-game losing streak and reach the playoffs despite its 3-5 start. Mitchell Trubisky has thrown six touchdown passes and compiled a 116.9 passer rating in wins over the Lions and Cowboys, so Green Bay will be dealing with a hot quarterback in addition to a defense that gets back standout defensive tackle Akiem Hicks from IR after dislocating his elbow. LB Danny Trevathan remains out. Temperatures were as low as 8 degrees on Sunday morning and won’t get into the 20s. Rodgers typically thrives in these kinds of games and could have a big day if his coverage holds up.

Seahawks (-6/49) at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Russell Wilson leads the league’s fifth-ranked offense, which comes in third in rushing thanks to Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny and will look to keep Seattle’s hopes of finishing with the NFC’s top record alive by winning their road finale. The Cardinals and 49ers come through Century Link Field over the next two weeks, so a 13-3 finish is certainly feasible. Penny is out after tearing his ACL last week, so CJ Prosise is likely to play a large role.

Although Christian McCaffrey sat down the stretch in last week’s blowout loss, the Panthers are likely going to lean on him just as heavily as they have all season, allowing him to extend his streak of consecutive games with 100-plus yards from scrimmage to eight so long as he stays healthy. Wilson also has a chance to have a big game and is facing a defense that has surrendered an average of 33 points per game over their last four losses. Three of the past four QBs to take on the Panthers have thrown for over 300 yards. With Jadeveon Clowney and Mychal Kendricks out and Ziggy Ansah and Shaquill Griffin questionable. Rookie third-round pick Cody Barton will get his second start at middle linebacker. A pretty day is expected in Charlotte, where temperatures will be just shy of 60 degrees.

Texans at Titans (-3/51), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Derrick Henry is set to play despite nursing a hamstring injury and has been tremendous over the past few weeks, reaching 12 touchdowns for the season for a second straight year. The ground attack has been able to help QB Ryan Tannehill get the passing game going despite the loss of tight end Delanie Walker, and Tennessee enters this game having averaged 37.5 points per game over its last four. The Texans surrendered 38 points last week, although Denver’s defense aided the cause with a couple of touchdowns, but they also gave up 41 points last time they hit the road and have given up 30 or more points in three of their last six away from Houston.

Tennessee has the second-best record in the NFL over the past seven weeks as Tannehill has amassed a 118.5 passer rating. Safety Kenny Vaccaro has been dealing with a concussion but is expected to clear protocol in time to prepare. Corner Adoree Jackson hasn’t practiced due to a foot injury and DT Jurrell Casey has been limited, so the Titans may need to keep their foot on the gas to hold off Deshaun Watson and the Texans. WR Will Fuller V is looking to return from a hamstring issue after missing last week’s game and completely changes the Houston offense, making it far more dynamic. These teams will play twice over the final three weeks. The Texans have won seven of 10 in the series.

Jaguars at Raiders (-6.5/46.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Jacksonville has lost five consecutive games by 17 or more points, which means their issues are far greater than simply QB play or vulnerability due to the loss of talented defenders. Head coach Doug Marrone will likely pay with his job and the belief around Jacksonville is that owner Shad Khan is likely to clean house. Last week’s 45-10 loss the Chargers featured a performance where the Jags didn’t look ready to play, becoming the first teams since the 1986 Bucs (yuck!) to lose by at least 17 points in five straight. Another flat outing here could certainly yield another blowout since the Raiders are likely to be charged up as they take the field for the final time at Oakland Coliseum. This is truly it this time, so even though the Raiders have had a number of “final” games in Alameda County, Jon Gruden and his team know they’re truly closing a chapter here and want to close it in style.

Leonard Fournette struggled last week despite getting touches while rookie Gardner Minshew fell to 4-5 as the starter last week as the Chargers boat-raced him and the Jags’ offense. Oakland will look to snap its three-game losing streak and has also seen the bottom fall out of late, dropping its last three games by a combined margin of 83 points. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs is expected to be back in the lineup after being cleared to play after breaking a shoulder plate. Tackle Trent Brown is a game-time decision due to a pectoral issue. Jacobs and DeWayne Washington will try and victimize a Jaguars’ defense allowing 141.1 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the NFL. Guard Gabe Jackson (knee) and safety Erik Harris (hamstring) have been limited in practices.

Vikings (-1.5/45) at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Minnesota is closing out its road schedule and hoping to finish at .500 by taking advantage of the lack of homefield edge the Chargers are stuck dealing with for yet another disappointing season in Carson. L.A. has dropped four of its last five home games outright and are just 1-4-1 ATS in the building but have looked sharper on defense since getting back safety Derwin James. Windy conditions are expected, so this could be a game where the ground attacks dictate a winner. Dalvin Cook has scored in an NFL-high 11 games this season while both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have done a great job making the most of their opportunities of late. Both teams are averaging roughly 375 yards of offense and have given up just over 19 points per game. The Vikings have even allowed over 33 more yards per game but have obviously made better use of their chances and have pulled out games where the Chargers have failed.

Cook has been dealing with a shoulder issue but is expected to play while WR Adam Thielen is also expected to return from a four-game absence due to a hamstring injury, which will keep L.A. from keying on Stefon Diggs, who is closing in on another 1,000-yard season, ranking second in the NFL in yards per reception (17.8).

Rams (-1/48.5) at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Dallas ranks second in the league in total offense and first in pass offense but hasn’t seen that edge materialize in many wins, putting them in a tough position with the Rams in town and the long-awaited matchup with the Eagles on deck next week. With Dak Prescott set to drop back, L.A.’s Aaron Donald-led defense will again be in the spotlight. AP reported that the Rams have an NFL-best 296 points off defensive takeaways since head coach Sean McVay and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips took over in 2017. They’ve recorded 11 sacks over the past two weeks and are up to 43 on the season, surpassing last year’s total. If the Rams can rattle Prescott and make the Cowboys one-dimensional, they could certainly control this game. Of course, Dallas’ offensive line is among the league’s best when healthy, so the battle up front figures to be telling.

Dallas is 0-6 against teams with winning records this season and will be looking to avoid sliding to 6-8 with their fourth straight setback. The Bears, Bills and Lions, offenses that don’t typically make scoreboard operators sweat, each got off against the Cowboys during this rough patch. Dallas has never made playoffs with multiple losing streaks of at least three games but have a 4,000-yard passer (Prescott), a 1,000-yard rusher (Ezekiel Elliott) and a 1,000-yard receiver (Amari Cooper) in same season for first time in franchise history, which is a stat worthy of a double-take given the history with this franchise. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four home games, both straight up and against the spread. LB Sean Lee is unlikely to play and Leighton Vander Esch has been ruled out, so Dallas will have to pull off a win despite a compromised linebacking corps.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 15
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at GB 01:00 PM
GB -4.0
O 41.0

SEA at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR +6.0
O 48.5

PHI at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +6.5
U 39.0

NE at CIN 01:00 PM
NE -10.5
U 42.0

HOU at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN -3.0
O 50.0

DEN at KC 01:00 PM
DEN +10.0
U 43.0

MIA at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG -3.5
O 45.5

TB at DET 01:00 PM
DET +5.5
O 46.0

[StarDust Bum]

MIN at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC +1.0
U 45.0

CLE at ARI 04:05 PM
CLE -3.0
O 49.0

JAC at OAK 04:05 PM
OAK -7.0
O 45.5

ATL at SF 04:25 PM
SF -10.5
U 49.0

LAR at DAL 04:25 PM
DAL -1.0
U 48.5

[Ldawg]

gl SDB

Been a while.

[StarDust Bum]

BUF at PIT 08:20 PM

PIT -1.0

O 37.0