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**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2019, 01:26 AM

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Eagles 37, Redskins 27:
— Late entrant for bad beat of the decade: Eagles scored a defensive TD off a botched lateral as time ran out to cover the spread.
— In two games vs Redskins TY, Philly converted 22 of 33 third down plays.
— Eagles outscored last two opponents 47-13 in second half/OT.

— Redskins lost their last six games with Philly; they led both series games at halftime TY.
— Washington is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 2-4 TY.
— NFL road teams are 122-93-7 ATS this season.

Buccaneers 38, Lions 17:
— Winston threw for 458 yards (308 in 1st half) and four TD’s.
— Tampa Bay won four of its last five games.
— Buccaneers are scoring 33.5 ppg in games with 2 or fewer turnovers (5-3).

— Detroit lost its last seven games; they’re 1-7-1 ATS in last nine games; why is Matt Patricia an NFL head coach?
— Lions in first half: 6 drives, 27 plays, 61 yards, 3 points.
— Over is 8-4 in Detroit’s last dozen games.

Packers 21, Bears 13:
— Bears lost 20 of their last 24 games against the Packers.
— Six of Bears’ last eight games stayed under.
— Total of 47 points were scored in two games between these rivals.

— Packers are 25-15-2 ATS in last 42 games as a home favorite, 5-3 TY
— Green Bay won field position last three weeks, by 12-13-12 yards.
— Packers’ last five drives: 18 plays, nine yards, one first down.

Patriots 34, Bengals 13:
— Patriots scored a defensive TD; their TD drives were 75-43-40 yards.
— NE is 18-12 ATS in last 30 games as a road favorite, 4-3 TY.
— New England (8-1) cashed the “first TD of the day” prop bet at SouthPoint.

— Bengals had ball 7 times in 2nd half: 4 INT’s, 2 punts, a FG.
— Yardage was 315-291 Cincy, but when you’re -5 in turnovers, you lose.
— Patriots ran ball for 175 yards, their most of season by 30 yards.

Texans 24, Titans 21:
— Houston takes over first place in AFC South.
— Texans won field position by 18 yards in this game.
— Last four weeks, Houston converted 23-46 third down plays.

— Titans in first half: 33 plays, 196 yards, zero points.
— Titans in second half: 32 plays, 247 yards, three TD’s.
— Teams meet again in Week 17, in Houston.

Seahawks 30, Panthers 24:
— Seattle won six of its last seven games.
— Seahawks’ first three drives: 22 plays, 230 yards, three TD’s.
— Seattle averaged 9.4 yards/pass attempt, won field position by nine yards.

— Panthers lost their 6th game in a row.
— Carolina scored twice in last 4:53 to push the spread.
— Over is 8-2 in Panthers’ last ten games.

Chiefs 23, Broncos 3:
— Denver was outscored 50-9 in two games vs Chiefs TY.
— Broncos lost their last eight games against KC.
— Denver is 7-3 ATS in last 10 games; they scored 6-3-3 points in the losses.

— Chiefs’ first five drives on a snowy day: 45 plays, 355 yards, 23 points.
— Denver’s first five drives: 30 plays, 114 yards, three points.
— Chiefs won/covered their last four games, allowing 4 TD’s on foes’ last 39 drives.

Giants 36, Dolphins 20:
— Miami had two trips to New Jersey, game in Foxboro in weeks 14-17.
— Four of Dolphins’ last five games went over.
— Miami scored only three points in two trips to red zone.

— Giants scored four TD’s on seven drives that started less than 75 yards from goal line.
— Big Blue snaps their nine-game losing streak.
— Giants averaged 9.1 yards/pass attempt in Eli Manning’s last home game.

Jaguars 20. Raiders 16:
— Jaguars led this game for 0:31, but it was the last 0:31.
— Jaguars’ first 6 drives: 23 plays, 81 yards, 2 first downs, 3 points.
— Jaguars’ last 3 drives: 32 plays, 203 yards, 15 first downs, 17 points.

— Oakland’s first 6 drives: 48 plays, 278 yards, 17 first downs, 16 points.
— Oakland’s last 4 drives: 28 plays, 144 yards, 10 first downs, no points.
— Raiders lost their last four games, outscored 136-49.

Cardinals 38, Browns 24:
— Cleveland was actually favored to win AFC North this season.
— Browns lost their last five road games.
— Arizona RB Drake ran ball for 137 yards, four TD’s.

— Arizona snaps its six-game losing streak.
— Over last 11 years, Cardinals are 23-16-1 ATS as a home underdog, 4-3 TY.
— Arizona averaged 8.8 yards/pass attempt, their 2nd-best mark this season.

Falcons 29, 49ers 22:
— Atlanta scored winning TD with 0:02 left, then scored another TD on ensuing kickoff as time ran out, putting the game over the total, a horrific beat if you had the under.
— Falcons won four of last six games SU, covered five of last seven games.
— Atlanta is 5-2 when it scores 24+ points, 0-7 when it doesn’t

— 49ers’ loss puts Seattle back atop NFC West; they play in Week 17.
— SF allowed 25+ points in five of last seven games, after allowing an average of 11 ppg in first seven games.
— 49ers scored two TD’s, but one of them was on a 1-yard drive after a fumbled punt.

Cowboys 44, Rams 21:
— Rams are two games out of the last playoff spot with two games left.
— LA rushed ball 14 times for 22 yards; no bueno.
— Rams split their last four games, with losses by 45-6/44-21 scores.

— Dallas ran ball for 263 yards, outgained LA 475-289.
— Cowboys are tied for first with Eagles; they meet in Philly next week.
— Dallas had two TD drives of 90+ yards, which doesn’t happen much.

Vikings 39, Chargers 10:
— Minnesota won eight of its last ten games.
— Vikings are 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a road favorite, 3-0 TY.
— Seven of their last nine games went over the total.

— LA trailed 12-10 right before half; Rivers fumbled a shotgun snap, got hit, and Vikings ran it in for the TD that broke the game open.
— Chargers had ball 11 times, committed seven turnovers.
— Bolts are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.

Bills 17, Steelers 10:
— Buffalo is in playoffs for 2nd time in last three years.
— Bills are 21-12-4 ATS in last 37 games as a road underdog.
— Six of their last seven games went under the total.

— Steelers lose for only 2nd time in last nine games.
— Pitt/Tennessee are tied for 2nd Wild Card slot with two weeks left.
— Steelers are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite, 1-3 TY.[/SIZE]

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2019, 01:29 AM

NFL Today, Week 15
December 15, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Dec. 16

Indianapolis at New Orleans, 8:15 p.m. Drew Brees and the Saints (10-3) try to remain in contention for the top playoff seed in the NFC when they host Jacoby Brissett and the struggling Colts (6-7). It's the final home game of the regular season for the playoff-bound Saints, who are 5-2 in the Superdome but are coming off a 48-46 loss to San Francisco last week. The Colts have lost five of six games and also have lost their last three games against the Saints.

--

STARS

Passing

-- Jameis Winston, Buccaneers, threw for a career-high 458 yards and four touchdowns, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 450 yards in consecutive games, leading Tampa Bay to a 38-17 win over Detroit.

- Carson Wentz, Eagles, bounced back from a late fumble by leading a 75-yard, go-ahead drive and throwing his third touchdown pass of the day to lead Philadelphia past Washington 37-27.

- Russell Wilson, Seahawks, passed for 286 yards and two touchdowns and Seattle defeated Carolina 30-24.

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns as Kansas City romped to a 23-3 victory over Denver.

- Eli Manning, Giants, threw for two touchdowns in what might have been his final home start for the franchise and New York snapped a franchise record-tying nine-game losing streak with a 36-20 victory over Miami.

--

Rushing

- Kenyan Drake, Cardinals, ran for four touchdowns and 137 yards to help Arizona snap a six-game losing streak by beating Cleveland 38-24.

- Chris Carson, Seahawks, rushed for 133 yards and two scores to help Seattle to a 30-24 win at Carolina.

- Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, Cowboys. Elliott had 117 yards rushing despite getting just one carry in the fourth quarter of Dallas' 44-21 rout of the Los Angeles Rams. Rookie Pollard played most of the fourth and had a career-high 131 yards, including a 44-yard score.

- Saquon Barkley, Giants, ran for 112 yards and scored two touchdowns in New York's 36-20 win over Miami.

- Joe Mixon, Bengals, had 136 yards on 25 carries in Cincinnati's 34-13 loss to New England.

- Nick Chubb, Browns, came in as the NFL's leading rusher and finished with 127 yards in Cleveland's 38-24 loss at Arizona.

- Miles Sanders, Eagles, rushed for 122 yards and a touchdown and caught six passes for 50 yards in Philadelphia's 37-27 victory at Washington.

--

Receiving

- Julio Jones, Falcons, caught 13 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns, including a 5-yard grab that was ruled a score after a replay reversal with 2 seconds left, sending Atlanta past San Francisco 29-22.

- George Kittle, 49ers, had a career-high 13 catches and 134 yards receiving in San Francisco's 29-22 loss to Atlanta.

- Breshad Perriman, Buccaneers, set career highs with three TD receptions and 113 yards receiving in Tampa Bay's 38-17 victory at Detroit.

- Travis Kelce, Chiefs, hauled in 11 catches for 142 yards in Kansas City's 23-3 win over Denver to become the first tight end in NFL history with four consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

- Tyler Higbee, Rams, had 12 receptions for 111 yards in Los Angeles' 42-21 loss at Dallas.

--

Special Teams

- Angelo Blackson, Texans, blocked Ryan Succop's 45-yard field goal attempt in the first quarter of Houston's 24-21 victory at Tennessee.

- Ka'imi Fairbairn, Texans, kicked a 29-yard field goal with 3:26 remaining to provide the winning margin as Houston scored 10 straight points in the fourth quarter to beat Tennessee 24-21.

- Kai Forbath, Cowboys, made all three of his field goals, from 50, 42 and 42 yards, and all five of his extra points in his Dallas debut, a 44-21 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

--

Defense

- Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson, Patriots. Gilmore and Jackson each had two interceptions, and Gilmore returned one of his 64 yards for a score to help New England clinch a playoff berth with a 34-13 victory over Cincinnati.

- Sean Murphy-Bunting, Buccaneers, returned an interception 70 yards for a score as Tampa Bay cruised past Detroit 38-17.

- Nigel Bradham, Eagles, returned a fumble 47 yards on the game's final play to cap Philadelphia's 37-27 win at Washington.

- Ifeadi Odenigbo and Danielle Hunter, Vikings. Odenigbo scooped up a fumble and went 56 yards for a touchdown in Minnesota's 39-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Hunter had five tackles, a sack, two forced fumbles and fumble recovery.

- K.J. Wright, Seahawks, had two interceptions in Seattle's 30-24 win at Carolina.

--

MILESTONES

New England coach Bill Belichick is in the playoffs for the 18th time, tying Tom Landry for second all time, one behind Don Shula. His 11th straight postseason berth broke a tie with Tony Dungy for the league record. ... Patriots QB Tom Brady has thrown at least 20 touchdown passes in 17 seasons, moving ahead of Peyton Manning for the NFL record. ... Adrian Peterson's 10-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter of Washington's 37-27 loss to Philadelphia gave him 110 for his career and tied him with Walter Payton for fourth on the all-time list. Peterson has 14,102 career rushing yards, surpassing Curtis Martin (14,101) for fifth on the NFL's career list. ... Tampa Bay's Shaquil Barrett had a sack in the Buccaneers' 38-17 win at Detroit, giving him 16 1/2 this season to match the franchise record set by Pro Football Hall of Fame defensive tackle Warren Sapp in 2000. ... Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers moved into 13th place in career yards passing (46,407). Fran Tarkenton is in 12th place with 47,003.

--

PLAYOFF SPOTS

New England clinched a postseason berth for the 11th consecutive season, the longest such streak in NFL history, with its 34-13 win at Cincinnati. ... Green Bay earned a playoff spot for the first time since 2016 with it's 21-13 win over Chicago and the Los Angeles Rams' 44-21 loss at Dallas. ... San Francisco also clinched a spot with the Rams' loss despite the 49ers losing to Atlanta. ... Seattle was also affected by the Rams' defeat because, combined with its 30-24 win at Carolina, the Seahawks clinched a playoff berth for the seventh time in eight seasons. ... Buffalo secured its second playoff berth in three seasons under coach Sean McDermott with a 17-10 win at Pittsburgh. The Bills (10-4) also recorded their first 10-win season since 1999.

--

STREAKS & STATS

Andy Dalton's 8-yard touchdown pass to Cethan Carter ended Cincinnati's streak of 20 straight games without reaching the end zone on its opening drive, but the Bengals fell to New England 34-13. ... Detroit running back Wes Hills, an undrafted rookie, had two TD runs in his NFL debut, a 38-17 loss to Tampa Bay, to join Isaiah Crowell (2014) as the only undrafted rookies with that many rushing touchdowns in their first career game in the common draft era. ... Minnesota forced seven turnovers and converted them into 20 points in a 39-10 over the Los Angeles Chargers. It was the most takeaways by a Mike Zimmer-led unit, surpassing the six that Dallas forced against Washington in 2003. It was the first time the Vikings have forced at least seven turnovers since Sept. 24, 1995, against Pittsburgh. ... Buffalo's John Brown caught seven passes for 99 yards in the Bills' 17-10 win at Pittsburgh, becoming the team's first 1,000-yard receiver since 2015.

--

TOSS UP

After Dallas won the pregame coin toss, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott initially made a reference to kicking off before saying his team would defer. Referee Walt Anderson said a couple of times the Cowboys wanted to kick, creating the confusion. â??Definitely a weird start,â?? Prescott said. â??Just bad use of words by me. We listened to the audio. We got it figured out. Just wasnâ??t the cleanest coin flip Iâ??ve been a part of.â?? The Rams went all the way to the start of the second half thinking they were going to get the ball before finding out Dallas would receive. â??I don't know how or why or what happened, but we had talked to the referees the whole game,â?? Goff said. â??I don't think that would have changed much with the outcome of the game, but it's something a little weird definitely.â??

--

BIG MAC

Carolina's Ã?hristian McCaffrey became the first NFL player this season - and the first Panthers player ever - to gain 2,000 yards from scrimmage, but the Panthers lost 30-24 to the Seattle Seahawks. McCaffrey carried 19 times for 87 yards and two touchdowns and caught eight passes for 88 yards, marking the 11th time in 14 games he has amassed more than 130 yards from scrimmage. He leads the NFL in total yards (2,121) yards and touchdowns (18). The NFL record for yards from scrimmage is 2,509, set by Tennessee's Chris Johnson in 2009. McCaffrey, who had 107 receptions last year, has 94 catches this year and joined Larry Centers (1995 and '96) as the only running backs with at least 90 in multiple seasons in NFL history.

--

THAT WINNING FEELING

Arizona snapped its losing streak at six games with a 38-24 win over Cleveland - and running back Kenyon Drake ended his personal skid at 14. Drake ran for a season-high 137 yards six weeks after being acquired by the Cardinals in a midseason trade with Miami. He lost nine straight games with the Dolphins before the trade and then lost five more after he came to the Cardinals.

--

CONSISTENT CHIEF

Kansas City's Travis Kelce had 11 receptions for 142 yards in the Chiefs' 23-3 win over Denver, giving him 1,131 yards receiving this season and making him the first tight end in NFL historywith at least 1,000 in four consecutive seasons. He also joined Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski and Jason Witten as the only tight ends with four career seasons overall with at least 1,000 yards receiving.

--

FAMOUS JAMEIS

Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston passed for a career-high 458 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in the Buccaneers' 38-17 win at Detroit. Winston, who passed for 456 yards with four touchdowns in Week 14, is the first player in NFL history with at least 450 yards passing yards in consecutive games. He has five games with at least 375 yards passing yards this year, joining Peyton Manning (six games in 2013) and Drew Brees (five in 2013) as the only players with at least five such games in a single season in NFL history.

--

BYE BYE, BLACK HOLE

Gardner Minshew threw two TD passes to Chris Conley in the final 5:15 of the game and the Jacksonville Jaguars spoiled the final scheduled game at the Oakland Coliseum by beating the Raiders 20-16. Some frustrated fans threw debris on the field, but most just sat quietly in the stands after the last of 327 games played at the Coliseum as the "Autumn Wind" played. Several Raiders, including quarterback Derek Carr, walked to the Black Hole to thank the fans, many of whom booed as Carr ran off the field for the final time.

--

SIDELINED

Tampa Bay wide receiver Chris Godwin left with a hamstring injury in the third quarter at Detroit after having five catches for 121 yards in the Buccaneers' 38-17 win. ... Dallas, already down Leighton Vander Esch because of a neck injury, lost two more linebackers in the first half against the Rams in veteran Joe Thomas and rookie Luke Gifford. Thomas injured a knee and Gifford was knocked out by an arm injury. ... Chicago defensive tackle Akiem Hicks left at Green Bay in the fourth quarter with an injury. Hicks, a Pro Bowl pick last season, was active and played for the first time since dislocating his left elbow against Oakland in London on Oct. 6. ... Seattle played without defensive ends Ziggy Ansah and Jadeveon Clowney, cornerback Shaquill Griffin and tight end Luke Wilson. Safety Quandre Diggs left in the third quarter and linebacker Bobby Wagner in the fourth. Coach Pete Carroll said after the game that both suffered ankle injuries, but said it appears Diggs' injury may be worse. ... Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook suffered a shoulder injury on the opening drive of the second half and did not return against the Chargers.

--

SPEAKING

â??It was definitely an awesome experience to be here and play in the last game. Probably saw more middle fingers today than I have in my whole life. They have a good time. It was fun to ruin that for them.â?? - Jacksonville quarterback Gardner Minshew, who threw two TD passes to Chris Conley in the final 5:15 of the game and the Jaguars spoiled the final scheduled game at the Coliseum by beating the Raiders 20-16.

--

â??Obviously, the support of the fans and their ovation and their chanting my name from the first half until the end, I appreciate that. I appreciate that always and my teammates coming up to me. It was a special day, a special win, one I'll remember.â?? - New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning after perhaps his final home game with the franchise, a 36-20 win over Miami.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2019, 01:54 AM

[SIZE=1]Monday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 15 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Oakland -6.5 (711)- L

5) Minnesota -2.5 (728)- W

4) Seattle -6.5 (754)- L

3) New England -9.5 (773)- W

2) Buffalo +2.5 (1,127)- W

1) LA Rams -1 (1,139)- L

2019 record: 48-38-3

Quote of the Day:
“Two more games left, I mean, I ain’t tripping. I ain’t stressing over it. I would like to win, absolutely. But I’m not going to go cause any trouble. They did a great job this whole year of scheming me up, getting me open and getting me the ball. But today just wasn’t that.”
Bengals’ WR Tyler Boyd

Monday’s quiz
Where did Ben Simmons play his one year of college basketball?

Sunday’s quiz
The Liberty Bowl is played in Memphis every December.

Saturday’s quiz
San Diego Chargers drafted Eli Manning with the first pick in the 2004 Draft.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2019, 01:18 PM

Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 15 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 6-8-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 10-5

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 123-77-1
Against the Spread 97-115-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 118-100-1
Against the Spread 92-120-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-109-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+10, ML +425) at 49ers, 29-22
Jaguars (+7, ML +250) at Raiders, 20-16
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Browns, 38-24
Texans (+3, ML +140) at Titans, 24-21

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-17) vs. Jets, 42-21
Patriots (-10.5) at Bengals, 34-13
Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Broncos, 23-3
Eagles (-6.5) at Redskins, 37-27
Buccaneeers (-6) at Lions, 38-17

Bad Beat - Part 1

-- The Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) took on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field, and the game started off harmlessly enough. The Redskins were leading 14-10 at halftime on their home field, looking to spoil the NFC East Division title and playoff dreams of their rivals. The Eagles struck for a touchdown in the third to re-take the lead 17-14. That's when the craziness started.

RB Adrian Peterson scored just seven seconds into the fourth to make it 21-17, and the teams traded touchdowns with TE Zach Ertz going to six to re-take the lead. The Redskins booted a pair of field goals to take a 27-24 lead, and that's how it looked like it might end. At the very least, the Redskins were going to hang on for the home cover. WR Greg Ward Jr. scored with :26 left to make it 31-27, and the Eagles were on their way to a win. However, the scoring wasn't over, as any Redskins side bettor already knows all too well. QB Dwayne Haskins fumbled, and with zeroes left on the clock it was LB Nigel Bradham returning the fumble for 47 yards to make it 37-27.

Bad Beat - Part 2

-- If you had the 'under' (50) in Atlanta Falcons-San Francisco 49ers, my condolences. At 5:15 to go in regulation there were just 36 total points on the board when the Falcons scored a rushing touchdown to cut the lead to 19-17. The 49ers booted a field goal at 1:48 to make it 22-17 in favor of the Niners.

With :02 left, the Falcons scored a touchdown, as QB Matt Ryan hit WR Julio Jones on a 5-yard connection to make it 23-22. Under bettors loved that they didn't even risk a two-point conversion or extra point, should the 49ers block a kick or return a fumble or interception for two points. So game over, right? Well, the 49ers tried a crazy series of lateral that went backwards, and you knew how this one was going. The 49ers chunked it, the Falcons scooped it up at the goal line and cashed in the six to push it over with zeroes on the clock. Two absolutely atrocious beats on the day. If you had the Redskins and the under in this game toge

Total Recall

-- There were five games with a total of 48.5 or greater -- Los Angeles Rams-Dallas Cowboys (48.5), Seattle Seahawks-Carolina Panthers (49), Cleveland Browns-Arizona Cardinals (49), Falcons-49ers (49.5 - see above) and the Houston Texans-Tennessee Titans (50.5). All but the Texans-Titans game ended up going over, and the AFC South battle probably would have gone over, too, if not for a scoreless first quarter. It was close.

The 'over' connected in the final Thursday game of the 2019 season between the New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens (44), with the over/under going 7-7 in the TNF game for the season. The Sunday nighter between the Buffalo Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers (37) was the lowest total on the board, and still wasn't even close to going over. We have the Monday nighter between the Indianapolis Colts-New Orleans Saints (46.5) still pending. The 'over' is just 17-28 (37.8%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead - Division Matchups

-- The Bills and Patriots battle at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight games on the road, and 5-0-1 ATS in the past six as a road underdog. The Patriots are 42-19-3 ATS in their past 63 at Gillette, and 4-0 ATS in the past four appearance on a Saturday. In this series the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the past 29 meetings, with the Bills 3-1-1 ATS in the past five trips to Foxboro.

-- The Rams and 49ers tangle, and San Francisco looks to recover after their shocking loss to Atlanta dropped them from a first-round bye in the playoffs into a wild-card position and a potential road game to kick off the playoffs. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the past six games inside the division, and they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine on the road. They were trampled in Dallas in Week 15, however. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams, but just 7-18-1 ATS in the past 26 as a favorite and 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Rams, however, and the under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in the Bay Area.

-- The Giants and Redskins tangle in D.C. in a game with nothing on the line outside of pride. The bets cash the same, however. New York is 11-3 ATS in the past 14 on the road, while going 10-2 ATS in the past 12 as a road underdog. The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in the past nine at home, although they should have covered in Week 15 (see above). Ugh. The G-Men are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings, while the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series. The under is also 5-1 in the past six in this series, and 5-2 in the past seven at FedEx Field.

-- The Ravens can clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with a win over the Browns, who stunningly beat them back on Sept. 29 in Baltimore by a 40-25 score as the 'over' hit. The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the past eight games overall, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road. The Browns are still barely alive for a playoff spot, but need to win out with help. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four at home, but just 2-8-1 ATS in the past 11 at FirstEnergy Stadium vs. Ravens.

-- The Raiders and Chargers meet in Carson. Soon this will be Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles, which is still weird. The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the road team 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meeting. The under is 5-1 in the past six in this series.

-- The Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in the past 21 inside the NFC East, while the Eagles are 4-10 ATS in the past 14 at home while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven at home vs. Cowboys. The Eagles are also 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings overall. With the road team also 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings, all trends point to Dallas.

-- The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven on the road, but just 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six overall, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the past four trips to Seattle, and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings overall in the series.

-- The Packers and Vikings meet on Monday night. The Packers are 2-6 ATS in the past eight battles on MNF, while the Vikings are 2-11 ATS in the past 13 on Monday, so something's gotta give. In this series the Packers are 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Twin Cities, while the home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 5-0 in the past five in Minnesota, while going 8-2 in the past 10 meetings overall, including a 21-16 win by the Packers in Week 2 at Lambeau.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2019, 01:19 PM

NFL Week 16 opening odds and early action: Cowboys a road favorite for key clash vs Eagles
Patrick Everson

Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas are tied atop the NFC East with Philadelphia, heading into a critical Week 16 contest. The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites against the division-rival Eagles.

The NFL playoff race shifts into high gear with key divisional battles in Week 16. We check in on opening odds and early action for four Week 16 games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Someone’s gotta win the NFC East, and this is the game that will likely decide who that someone is. Dallas put a three-game SU slide in the rearview mirror while climbing back to .500 in Week 15. The Cowboys (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) battered the Los Angeles Rams 44-21 as 1-point home underdogs.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia had to scrap and scrounge at three-win Washington, but also found its way back to .500. The Eagles (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) got a touchdown with 26 seconds remaining to take a 31-27 lead, then got a scoop-and-score on the final play of the game. That play killed ‘Skins bettors as Philly won 37-27 giving 10 points. It was the only moment all game that the Eagles were covering.

“Everyone will be on Dallas after its performance in the win over the Rams,” Murray said. “The Eagles escaped two weeks in a row against the awful Giants and Redskins. They will need to really up their game to beat Dallas here.”

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7)

In the offseason, not many would have pegged Buffalo as having a chance to tie for the AFC East lead in Week 16, but that’s most certainly the case. The Bills (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) bested Pittsburgh 17-10 as 1-point road underdogs in the Sunday nighter and now have the best spread-covering mark in the league.

Defending Super Bowl champ New England halted a two-game SU and three-game ATS skid. The Patriots (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) played a lackluster first half at Cincinnati, taking a 13-10 lead just before the break, but went on to a 34-13 victory laying 10.5 points.

“Both teams are now in the playoffs but have playoff positioning to fight for,” Murray said of motiviations for this Saturday showdown. “The Patriots’ offense couldn’t do anything in their first meeting, and it doesn’t seem like much has changed for them on that side of the ball. We will be flooded with teasers and parlays of Patriots to 49ers.”

Per SuperBook policy, this game came off the board before the Bills-Steelers kickoff and will repost Monday morning.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

San Francisco learned how quickly fates can change at this stage of the year, dropping from the NFC’s No. 1 seed to No. 5 on Sunday. The 49ers (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS), coming off a great win at New Orleans, suffered a stunning home loss to Atlanta, 29-22 as healthy 10.5-point favorites.

In a crazy finish, the Niners allowed a TD with two seconds left to fall behind 23-22, then gave up a scoop-and-score while lateraling around on the ensuing kickoff to account for the final score. Which, oh by the way, made Over bettors delirious and Under bettors sick, with a total of 50.

Defending NFC champ Los Angeles did itself more harm than San Fran in Week 15, further wrenching its playoff hopes. The Rams went to Dallas as 1-point favorites and got boatraced 44-21, halting a 3-1 SU and ATS upswing. Sean McVay’s squad is still No. 7 in the NFC, but is two games out in the win column to current wild cards Minnesota and San Francisco.

“San Francisco is really banged up right now and just fell out of first place with a loss to the Falcons,” Murray said. “They need this game to stay in the hunt for a first-round bye. The book will want the Rams outright.”

This is another Saturday matchup, in prime time with an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

Green Bay will look to remain solo first in the NFC North in the final Monday night game of the season. In Week 15, the Packers (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) beat Chicago 21-13 giving 4 points at frigid Lambeau Field, where the current No. 2 seed hopes to spend some time in January.

However, Minnesota can tie its division rival with a victory in this prime-time contest. The Vikings (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) went off as 1-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers and coasted to a 39-10 victory Sunday.

“The Packers really struggled on offense in their win over the Bears. They’ll need to be much better to beat Minnesota here,” Murray said. “The winner will likely take the division, and the loser will have to go on the road for three rounds in the postseason to get to the Super Bowl.”

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2019, 01:20 PM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 16 odds: Time to tackle the total for Raiders at Chargers
Jason Logan

This total of 47 points is the lowest Over/Under set for a game between Oakland at L.A./San Diego since 2015 and in their eight meetings during that stretch, these divisional foes have produced a 2-6 Over/Under mark.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 16 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

All the marbles in the NFC East are on the line when the Cowboys come to Philly to face the Eagles in Week 16. After Dallas destroyed the L.A. Rams at home Sunday and Philadelphia fumbled its way to a win over Washington, the public perceptions for these two rivals are heading in opposite directions.

The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites on the road and early money is jumping on the visitor, with some books making a brief move to -3 and other juggling the juice on Eagles +2.5 trying to stir up action on the home side.

If you like Dallas to build on that Week 15 win and take the NFC East title, get it under the key number of a field goal now. Books are expecting to need Philadelphia come kickoff Sunday and this spread could not only climb to -3 but maybe even -3.5 if the public pounds America’s Team.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: LOS ANGELES RAMS (+6.5) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Both NFC West rivals are coming off bad losses in Week 15, but the Rams’ 44-21 flogging in Dallas looks a little worse than the Niners dropping the ball versus Atlanta. And that’s why this 6.5-point spread will tick toward the home side for Saturday night’s game.

With the 49ers fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and looking to avoid a Wild Card spot, bettors will bank on a bounce back with the team staying in the Bay Area. San Francisco was banged up heading into that matchup with the Falcons and should it return some key bodies, this spread could climb to a touchdown or higher.

Some books opened 49ers -6 and jumped to -6.5, and now we’re seeing that line taxed a little more on the home side as books attempt to cook up action on the Rams. If you like Los Angeles to put in a good fight and try to play spoiler to San Francisco’s postseason plans, then hold off and wait to see how many points this spread will climb.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47 OAKLAND RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

It was a bad week for California-based NFL teams. Both the Raiders and Chargers lost – as did the Rams and Niners – but at least one will get a “W” in Week 15 (unless we get a tie. Yuck). However, we’re more concerned with the total for this AFC West rivalry.

Oakland botched its farewell game in the Bay Area by scoring only 16 points in a loss to Jacksonville and has averaged just 13.2 points over its last five games, posting a 1-4 Over/Under count in that span. Los Angeles mustered a mere 10 points in a blowout loss to Minnesota, a week removed from hanging 45 points on the Jaguars. Take that high-scoring aberration out of the mix and the Bolts have scored 20 or less in three of their last four.

This total of 47 points is the lowest Over/Under set for a game between Oakland at L.A./San Diego since 2015 and in their eight meetings during that stretch, these divisional foes have produced a 2-6 Over/Under mark. Bookies are already discounting the vig on the Over 47, so a move downward is coming. Take the Under 47 now while you can.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 50.5 ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks are vying for the top seed in the NFC after a win at Carolina and a 49ers loss to Atlanta in Week 15. Seattle is far from those dominant defensive clubs that stormed the NFL playoffs a few years back, scoring 26.3 points for but allowing 27.3 points against over its last three contests.

The Cardinals come in with the hot hand, putting 38 points on Cleveland at home in Week 15. Arizona has scored 25 or more points in four of its last six games and is a much different team than the one that lost 27-10 to Seattle at home back in Week 4.

The current 50.5-point total is the third-highest Over/Under number on the Week 16 board, after opening as low as 49.5. It has climbed as high as 51 at some sportsbooks and if you think that total is too tall, wait it out and see how high you can get the number before getting down on the Under.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2019, 01:22 PM

MNF - Colts at Saints
Tony Mejia

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-9, 47), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

The Colts will be eliminated with a loss and have no room for error, so if you’re into backing blind desperation, the guys in blue are for you. Of course, you could be stuck riding a horse that’s done bucking and now looks is looking for a nice stable to sleep in as they ride into that sunset.

I’ll spare you any further analogies of what retired horses do, but these Colts are certainly nearly out of gas and you can read on to the injury report below to see just how compromised they are and have been on that side of the ball. The Saints have wrapped up their NFC South title but are still vying to avoid playing on Wild Card weekend, so they’ll be heavily invested in making sure they come out of this one victorious.

After losing to the 49ers on a last-second Robbie Gould field goal last week, New Orleans dropped out of the driver’s seat as far as controlling its own destiny goes but can still finish at 13-3 by running the table with wins at Tennessee and Carolina to close out its schedule following this home regular-season finale.

Even with the 49ers being upset late in Sunday’s home date with a Falcons team that also hung an unexpected loss on the Saints in New Orleans, the winner of the San Francisco-Seattle Week 17 showdown will likely finish with a 13-3 record. If it’s the Seahawks, the Saints will hold tiebreaker over them by virtue of a head-to-head win. If it’s the 49ers, they won’t.

The Packers are also in the mix for a 13-3 finish and close out with a Monday night visit to Minnesota next week and close with a stop in Detroit, so they’ll also factor into the homefield mix as the NFC playoff picture is certain not to shake out until Week 17’s games are played. The Saints are a perfect 3-0 coming off losses, winning each time by eight or more points to post a 3-0 ATS record after setbacks.

Indianapolis comes in off a 38-35 loss to the Buccaneers in which it fell at home despite Jameis Winston’s turnover issues, ultimately being unable to stop a passing attack that also generated multiple big plays despite losing top receiver Mike Evans to a hamstring injury as he finished off a long touchdown run after a deep ball from Winston. While Indianapolis has been solid against the run, ranking eighth in yards allowed, they’re 22nd of 32 in pass defense and have dealt with personnel issues due to injuries for the better part of the season.

That’s not a great matchup when you have to deal with Drew Brees and the player who has been the league’s most productive receiver this season since Michael Thomas, whose 121 catches for 1,424 yards top the NFL, has proven he can’t be stopped whether his quarterback is Brees or backups Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill. Thomas has a streak of hauling in at least 10 receptions for over 100 yards at home going and has seven games with at least 10 catches, tied for most in league annals.

History can also be made tonight if Brees is able to throw three touchdown passes since he’s moved just behind Peyton Manning (539) for most in NFL history and would get to 540 if he can throw three. If the opportunity is there, count on Sean Payton to make sure he gets this record at home in what will be the team’s final regular-season date so that he can be properly honored. While Tom Brady is in the mix with 538 TD passes, Brees is likely to keep the Patriots' quarterback in his rear-view mirror based on what we've seen this season and his stated desire to continue playing a few more seasons.

I’d back a 3-plus touchdown prop if you can find it. Since returning from the thumb injury that caused him to miss over a month of action, Brees has thrown for three or more scores in four of six games, tossing five in the loss to the 49ers.

Although Thomas continues to be the top target, the fact Ted Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith and tight end Jared Cook have all gotten healthier and have also made big plays in the passing game has made the Saints awfully effective.

Count on the Colts looking to slow the game down and try and control time of possession since that’s likely the best way to get out of the Superdome with an upset. RB Marlon Mack is up to 900 yards rushing for the season and has been steady behind Indy’s above-average offensive line, while backup Nyheim Hines has been extremely productive catching passes out of the backfield to help offset the team’s injury-related issues at wide receiver. The Colts have the sixth-ranked rushing attack in the NFL but have struggled to keep up the pace through the air, particularly recently.

Without T.Y. Hilton, Jacoby Brissett has struggled some after a fantastic start despite being thrust into the starter’s role by the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck. The Colts fell apart without him in losing to the Dolphins under Brian Hoyer’s job but have seen him struggle since his return from a sprained left MCL. Brissett has thrown for four touchdowns and three interceptions but could catch a break with Hilton being listed as a game-time decision.

There’s no question Hilton will want to be out there with his team making their first Monday Night Football appearance since 2016 but he didn’t practice Saturday, so his status is up in the air. According to Stephen Holder, beat writer for The Athletic, head coach Frank Reich doesn’t want his star wideout playing unless he’s 100 percent but Hilton has balked at the idea of shutting it down despite Indianapolis’ bleak playoff chances.

TOTAL TALK

The total for the Week 15 finale opened at 45 and the number has been bumped up to 46 ½ and 47 at the majority of sportsbooks as of Monday morning. The totals market has had nice back and forth results this season in non-conference games and the ‘over’ holds a slight 28-27 edge but the high side did go 3-0 on Sunday in NFC-AFC matchups.

Chris David handicaps the total for the second to last MNF matchup of the season.

“Anytime there’s a game in the Superdome, you’re automatically thinking shootout but it depends on what the opponent is bringing the table,” said David. “Ironically, the Colts have produced 8-5 ‘over’ results this season while the Saints own a 7-6 mark to the side. Even if Brees and the Saints offense are known to put a dud at home every now and then in the regular season, the attack can ring up 30-plus points routinely.”

The NFC South matched up against the AFC South this season for non-conference games and the Saints have gone 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS while the total went 1-1. The Colts own a 1-1 record (1-0-1 ATS) versus their NFC counterparts but the ‘over’ holds a 2-0 mark with Indy averaging 31 PPG in those affairs. Both clubs finish out their non-conference slates in Week 16 with the Colts hosting Carolina and the Saints visiting Tennessee.

David likes what he sees from Indianapolis in these NFC matchups and he likes the trends against the AFC for the Saints as well.

“Brees has had plenty of recent success against AFC foes, especially at home. The club has won four straight and that includes the Week 1 rally past the Texans,” David said. “More importantly, the offense is averaging 28.3 PPG in their last 10 at home in non-conference games and that’s resulted in an 8-2 ‘over’ mark. The Colts are on a 3-0 ‘over’ run in games against NFC teams and I expect that trend to continue here. I believe both teams will get into the twenties on MNF and the winner will see a minimum of 30 points.”

LINE MOVEMENT

Indianapolis Colts
Projected season win total: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC South (pre-Week 1/current): 7/2 to 80/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 250/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 80/1 to 500/1

New Orleans Saints
Projected season win total: 10.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win NFC South (pre-Week 1/current): 5/7 to OFF (Cashed)
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to 2/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 12/1 to 5/1

INJURY CONCERNS

This game will be vital for the Saints in that it will supply the first real opportunity to see how the defensive is going to respond without DT Sheldon Rankins (ankle) and DE Marcus Davenport (foot), who were lost to season-ending injuries last week. Kiko Alonso will be sidelined too and was badly missed in the middle last week, while CBs Patrick Robinson, Johnson Bademosi and safety Vonn Bell are going to miss this game too. Sack master Cameron Jordan will play, as will LB A.J. Klein. Up front, while tackle Terron Armstead will play, counterpart Andrus Peat is sidelined again.

Beyond Hilton’s availability, the Colts have CB Rock Ya-Sin banged up but expect to have him out there and hope fellow corner Pierre Desir (groin) can participate. Fellow CB Kenny Moore has already been ruled out. WR Paris Campbell became the latest receiver to be lost for the season, joining Chester Rodgers and tight end Eric Ebron. Dontrelle Inman was re-signed due to his familiarity with the Colts system while young Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal should do the heavy lifting if Hilton can’t go. Kicker Adam Vinatieri was placed on IR earlier this month. Rookie Chase McLaughlin is handling those duties.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Saints 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS last 9, UNDER 5-4)

10/25/15 Saints 27-21 at Colts (NO +4, 52)
10/23/11 Saints 62-7 at Colts (NO -14, 49)
9/6/07 Colts 41-10 vs. Saints (IND -5.5, 53.5)
9/28/03 Colts 55-21 at Saints (IND -1.5, 42)
11/18/01 Saints 34-20 vs. Colts (NO -5.5, 47.5)
9/27/98 Saints 19-13 OT at Colts (PK'em, 35.5)
11/12/95 Saints 17-14 vs. Colts (NO -1.5, 40)
12/24/89 Saints 41-6 vs. Colts (NO -2.5, 39.5)
10/12/86 Saints 17-14 at Colts (IND +4, 37.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 16 currently has the Saints as a 1.5-point road favorite at the Titans. Believe it or not, the Colts are a 6.5-point home favorite with the slumping Panthers coming into town.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2019, 06:41 PM

MONDAY, DECEMBER 16
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IND at NO 08:15 PM

NO -8.5

U 47.5

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2019, 02:03 AM

Brees sets NFL all-time TD mark as Saints crush Colts 34-7
December 16, 2019

NEW ORLEANS (AP) Drew Brees trotted along the sideline holding his helmet and a Hall of Fame-bound ball in his left hand while using his right hand to wave and blow kisses to an adoring Superdome crowd.

Another milestone, another memory, for an undersized and once underestimated player who has broken just about every significant record a quarterback can break - and doesn't look anywhere near done at age 40.

Brees became the NFL's all-time leader in touchdown passes, throwing for four scores to lead the New Orleans Saints to a 34-7 victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night.

''It was special, everything about the night,'' Brees said. ''It just kind of makes your whole life and career flash before your eyes, because I never thought I'd have a chance to be part of something like this.''

The scoring strike that broke Peyton Manning's record of 539 career touchdown passes came in the third quarter, when Brees hit tight end Josh Hill for a 5-yard score. Brees' next pass in the game was the 541st scoring toss of his career, a 28-yarder to reserve QB and utility player Taysom Hill that put the Saints up 34-0.

''He's done that to a lot of defenses,'' Colts coach Frank Reich said. ''When he gets like that. I don't know that anybody can stop him.''

Now in his 19th season, the 6-foot Brees - a 2001 second-round draft choice - came into the game already holding NFL records for completions with 6,792 and yards passing with 72,577. He built on those numbers while also setting a record for completion percentage in a game. He completed 29 of 30 passes - 96.7% - for 307 yards before being relieved by Teddy Bridgewater in the fourth quarter. That broke the mark Philip Rivers had held since completing 28 of 29 (96.6%) against Arizona last season.

''He had a hot hand, obviously,'' Saints coach Sean Payton said. ''Guys were making plays, but that's awfully difficult to do.''

The victory kept the Saints (11-3), who'd already won the NFC South, in the running with Seattle (11-3), San Francisco (11-3) and Green Bay (11-3) for one of the top two seeds in the NFC playoffs.

''There's a lot at stake right now relative to these games when you look at the top of the NFC,'' Payton said. ''It's about winning and winning and winning and trying to give yourself the best chance in the postseason.''

The Colts (6-8) were eliminated from playoff contention after losing their fourth straight and sixth out of seven.

They were also left struggled to explain their lack of competitiveness in a game they needed to win.

''I wish I knew all the answers,'' Colts linebacker Darius Leonard said. ''I hate losing more than I love winning.''

Jacoby Brissett struggled at times with accuracy and finished 18 of 34 for 165 yards against a Saints defense looking for redemption after allowing 48 points in a loss to the 49ers a week earlier.

Meanwhile, Colts defenders had no answer for Michael Thomas, who caught 12 passes for 128 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown. Thomas' eighth game this season with at least 10 catches give him 133 for the season, which is also the fourth-highest single-season total in NFL history.

With four more catches, Thomas will pass Antonio Brown and Julio Jones for second most in a season. He needs 11 to eclipse Marvin Harrison's record of 143 from 2002.

Tre'Quan Smith caught a 21-yard touchdown pass for New Orleans.

Jordan Wilkins scored the Colts' lone TD on a 1-yard run in the fourth quarter.

FLUID RECORD

While Brees holds the career touchdown pass record for now, the Patriots' Tom Brady is only three behind at 538.

''It's a fluid record,'' Payton said. ''There's still another quarterback in New England, so that will go back and forth as long as those two are playing.''

The next-closest active player is Rivers with 395.

Brees wasn't about to underestimate Brady's ability to keep pace.

''He's such a stud. He's got a lot of rings and records,'' Brees said of Brady. ''He's awesome.''

HAILING HILL

Brees said the ball with which he threw his record-breaking TD would go to the Pro Football Hall of Fame and also sounded particularly pleased by who caught it.

''I love the fact it was Josh Hill,'' Brees said, noting that Hill made the team as an undrafted rookie in 2013 and has been reliable both on offense and special teams ever since.

''The epitome of a great teammate, kind of an unsung hero,'' Brees said. ''He's done an unbelievable job. I have so much trust and confidence in him.''

INJURIES

Colts: Reserve safety Rolan Milligan left the game with a foot injury in the first half. Cornerback Quincy Wilson left with a shoulder injury.

Saints: Right guard Larry Warford needed help to the sideline with a left knee injury early in the third quarter. Defensive back C.J. Gardner Johnson left the game with a concussion in the fourth quarter.

UP NEXT

Colts: Host Carolina on Sunday.

Saints: Visit Tennessee on Sunday.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2019, 02:11 AM

nfl december opinions and best bets: All based on 5 units

date........................... W-l-t............ %................ Units

12/16/2019...................2-0-0........100.00%..........+10.00
12/15/2019.................9-18-1..........33.33%...........-54.00
12/12/2019...................2-0-0.........100.00%.........+10.00
12/09/2019...................1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
12/08/2019................12-12-2..........50.00%..........-6.00
12/01/2019..................7-10-1..........41.18%..........-20.00

totals.........................33-41-4..........44.59%..........-60.50

best bets:

Date........................ats.............units. ............o/u...............units.............totals

12/16/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/15/2019...............1 - 8.............-39.00.............5 - 6..............-8.00...............-47.00
12/12/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/09/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.50..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
12/08/2019...............6 - 3.............+13.50............4 - 4..............-2.00...............+11.50
12/01/2019...............6 - 6..............-3.00..............1 - 4..............-17.00..............-20.00

totals.......................15 - 17..........-13.00.............12 - 15..........-22.50...............-35.50

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2019, 02:15 AM

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Interesting Week 16 NFL games:

— Bills @ Patriots (-6.5)

— Texans (-3) @ Buccaneers

— Saints (-1.5) @ Titans

— Bengals @ Dolphins (-1)

— Cowboys (-2.5) @ Eagles

— Packers @ Vikings (-4.5)

Quote of the Day:
“I mean, they could be (the final two games). I don’t necessarily expect that it is, or I don’t necessarily think it’s a crazy thought that it will be. I think you just don’t know.”
Philip Rivers, contemplating his future

Tuesday’s quiz
What fine actor played the football coach at Wisconsin in the movie Draft Day?

Monday’s quiz
Ben Simmons played his one year of college basketball at LSU.

Sunday’s quiz
The Liberty Bowl is played in Memphis every December.

******************************

Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…..

13) Arizona Diamondbacks gave Madison Bumgarner $85M for five years, lot less than the $118M the Phillies gave Zack Wheeler for the same five years. Surprising.

12) Seahawks’ WR Josh Gordon has been suspended indefinitely for violating the NFL’s policies on performance-enhancing substances and substances of abuse.

If anyone else gives this guy a chance, they’re a moron; Gordon should be banned by the NFL. He’s been suspended six times since 2013. Enough already.

11) Jameis Winston is the first player EVER to throw for 450+ yards in consecutive regular-season games (Drew Brees did it in consecutive playoff games).

10) Carolina Panthers will start rookie QB Will Grier this week against Indianapolis; Carolina lost its last six games, has already fired their coach.

9) Saints 34, Colts 7:
— Horrible, non-competitive effort by the Colts, one of the worst Monday night games ever.
— New Orleans needs two wins and a Green Bay loss to earn a bye in playoffs.
— ESPN crew turned telecast into a Drew Brees infomercial; Brees was 29-30/307 with four TD passes.

— Booger McFarland called Tom Brady the best QB ever; so if he was drafting a team, with every QB ever (in his prime) available, and he had the first pick, he would take Brady over Elway, Marino, Montana and Peyton Manning? Seriously?

8) Sunday night was the first time the Buffalo Bills had been on Sunday Night Football since 2007; it was the first time they beat the Steelers since 1999.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Texas Rangers acquired 34-year old P Corey Kluber from Cleveland, for Delino DeShields Jr and a prospect.
— Minnesota signed reliever Sergio Romo.
— Tampa Bay signed Japanese OF/1B Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.

6) North Carolina lost four of its last five games after a 5-0 start; they lost to Wofford Sunday (for 2nd time in three years) after scoring 49-47 points in their previous two losses. Tar Heels have the #308 eFG%; they’re not shooting ball well (28.7% on arc (#304), 44.6% inside arc (#298), 63.2% on line (#317)).

Freshman Cole Anthony is their best player, and he is out indefinitely now with a knee injury. Carolina plays at Gonzaga Wednesday; they’ll be the underdog there.

5) Miami Heat are paying Dion Waiters $12,100,000 this year, $12,650,000 next year, but they have problems with him.

Miami suspended Waiters for the second time in three months when he called in sick, then later posted a picture of himself enjoying some time on a boat, one of more than a half dozen team violations by Waiters this season, including complaining on the bench during the preseason, refusing to do a required weigh-in and several inappropriate posts on social media.

4) Virginia Tech announced Tracy Claeys as the team’s new linebackers coach; Claeys was the DC at Washington State this year, but was the scapegoat and left his job after the Coogs lost 67-63 to UCLA, blowing a 49-17 third quarter lead.

3) Milwaukee Brewers signed OF Avasail Garcia to a 2-year contract for $20M; Garcia hit 20 HR’s with 72 RBI for the Rays LY, in what CBS Sports described as: “…….an uncharacteristically productive season.” Not exactly high praise there.

2) Kansas Jayhawks are the 5th #1 team in college basketball this season, the most #1 teams ever for this early in the season.

1) Out of 353 Division I college basketball teams, only four are still unbeaten; Liberty and Duquesne are two of them (Auburn, San Diego State are the others). Go figure.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2019, 02:20 AM

49ers remain in control for top seed despite loss to Falcons
December 16, 2019
By The Associated Press

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Despite following up their most electrifying win of the season with a flat loss, the task heading into the final two weeks of the season for the San Francisco 49ers is a simple one.

Win two games and the 49ers are assured of having the top seed in the NFC playoffs and home-field advantage throughout. If that doesn't happen, the Niners (11-3) might look back at the 29-22 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday as a missed opportunity to create some space between them and Seattle (11-3) in the NFC West.

''This loss doesn't define our season going forward,'' left tackle Joe Staley said. ''This isn't something that is going to linger in this locker room. It is a bad loss, and credit to them. Obviously, we would love to be sitting here with a win. It would be a different story. We are going to learn from this, we are going to own it and then have one hell of a week of practice, and that is all we can do.''

The 49ers have been on an emotional ride of late. They lost a showdown in Baltimore two weeks ago when the Ravens kicked a field goal on the final play of the game, then followed by winning a 48-46 thriller in New Orleans on Robbie Gould's 30-yard field goal with 2 seconds to play.

There wasn't the same intensity against the also-ran Falcons and that might have contributed to the lackluster performance that allowed Atlanta to rally to win on Matt Ryan's 5-yard TD pass to Julio Jones with 2 seconds remaining.

''It's been high drama, but I feel like we're built for it,'' fullback Kyle Juszczyk said. ''I just keep saying that this is going to be good experience for when even more is on the line, you know? So, we know that we've got some big games coming up with the playoffs and this kind of stuff is just good experience for us.''

WHAT'S WORKING

TE George Kittle. While much of the offense struggled to get going, Kittle had another big day with a career-high 13 catches on 17 targets for 134 yards. He tied Eric Johnson's franchise record for catches in a game by a tight end and also reached 2,780 yards for his career. That total surpassed Hall of Famer Mike Ditka's 2,774 yards for the most by a tight end in his first three seasons.

WHAT NEEDS HELP

Wide receivers. While Kittle was Garoppolo's No. 1 target, the wide receivers were mostly invisible. Only Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne played more than three offensive snaps in the game and Dante Pettis didn't even get on the field once despite being active. Samuel had a key drop and Garoppolo was 4 for 9 for 49 yards when targeting his wideouts.

STOCK UP

DL Sheldon Day. With several defensive linemen, including Dee Ford, Ronald Blair, D.J. Jones and Damontre Moore, all sidelined by injuries, Day got an increase in playing time with 24 defensive snaps and delivered his first sack of the season.

STOCK DOWN

RB Matt Breida. Breida's playing time has been limited after missing three games with an ankle injury and he did nothing to warrant getting more on Sunday. He had four carries for 11 yards and caught two passes for 6 yards. But his biggest negative came late in the third quarter. He fumbled the ball out of bounds on one carry and then on his next touch lost a fumble with San Francisco in Atlanta territory. He didn't get a single snap on offense in the fourth quarter.

INJURED

The Niners reported no injuries from the game but still have several key players working their way back. CB Richard Sherman (hamstring), CB K'Waun Williams (concussion) and S Jaquiski Tartt (ribs) all missed the game against Atlanta and their status for this week remains unknown.

KEY NUMBER

13 -Juszczyk caught a 2-yard TD pass from Garoppolo early in the fourth quarter to become the 13th player on the team with a touchdown catch this season. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that ties an NFL record for most players with a TD catch in one season.

NEXT STEPS

The Niners have a short week before hosting the division rival Los Angeles Rams on Saturday night. A win in that game would set the stage for the season finale at Seattle on Dec. 29 when the NFC West title would be on the line. A loss could lead to a sixth seed in the playoffs should the Niners also fall to the Seahawks.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2019, 02:22 AM

Favorites start strong, fade late
December 16, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Sportsbook Betting Recap - Week 15

Sunday’s Week 15 NFL action was a tale of two halves with bettors owning Nevada sportsbooks in early action that saw favorites go 6-1-1 against-the-spread, but the books bounced back in the afternoon with underdogs going 4-1 both straight-up and ATS. The combined results produced mixed results across the state with most bet shops needing the Steelers to improve the winless or climb out of the hole.

“We lost every early game, but won every late game,” said William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “Our worst game ended up being the Patriots and our best games were the Falcons and Cowboys.” The Patriots had not lost three straight games with Tom Brady since 2002 and it was a popular play with large and small money everywhere following the trend with the Patriots losing their last two. Bettors had to sweat out the Patriots sluggish offense with the Bengals leading after the first quarter and only up 13-10 at the half, but they would roll to a 34-13 win covering a spread that ran from -9.5 to 10.5.

The Patriots cover had books on red alert with parlays and teasers as it was one of the root games to start a tidal wave, but they’d get relief later.

“The 49ers losing was huge, said Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis of the Falcons 29-22 upset win at San Francisco (-10). “We had a house player play a big chalk 3-team parlay (with the 49ers on it) making it our best game of the day. The Patriots were the worst, but we ended up a good winner needing the Steelers in the late game.”

The Bills (+1) would end up winning, 17-10, at Pittsburgh to close out Sunday’s action making favorites 7-6-1 ATS on the day with all six underdogs winning outright with the Falcons getting the largest money-line payout of +434 at Circa sportsbook.

“The fluke TD at the end of the 49ers game sent the game over the total and we needed the under,” said Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda.

On their last play, the 49ers tried to do some Cal-Stanford marching band stuff off a kickoff after the Falcons took a 23-22 lead and proceeded to fumble and the Falcons score a TD which sent the total over 49.5 points.

There was another wacky last play between Washington and Philadelphia when Redskins quarterback Dwayne Haskins fumbled and Eagles linebacker Nigel Bradham scooped it up and ran it back for a 49-yard touchdown. Final score: Eagles 37-27. The spread was Eagles -6.5 and the sportsbook crowds were roaring with approval and the swing loss for the books was substantial.

“One of the worst games of the day was the Eagles,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. “That fumble return was about a $200,000 swing.”

The Eagles covering had the books shaken because it added to the morning favorites getting there with parlays and had the perfect risk recipe for a Black Sunday brewing.

“The Philly covering swing was about a $100,000 difference for us,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback.

“We didn’t win many games on the day, but the three games we did win were enough to make us a small winner,’ said DiTommaso. “The Chiefs win happened to be our best; we had lots of Broncos action on the spread and money-line. We closed at -8 and no one wanted any of it. The other wins for us were the Vikings and also the Jaguars (+7 in 20-16 win at Oakland)."

The Chiefs opened -9.5 and got as high as -10.5, but with snow expected, the Broncos became a popular wager as did the total staying under which dropped from 45 to 42.5. The Chiefs would win, 23-3, a result that benefitted several books, but not all of them based on clientele.

“We did really well to the Chiefs game staying under beating out a $100,000 4-team teaser,” Stoneback said.

Some books are at the mercy of whales that casinos give extended limits to in any casino game they want to play and have completely different results in the book which made the Chiefs a loser at Wynn.

“The Packers side and the first half hurt us the most and then the Chiefs were our next biggest loser,” Castaneda said. “And then the only favorite to cover in the late game, the Vikings, was no good, either.”

The Packers (-4.5) won, 21-13, at home against the Bears and the Vikings (-1.5) blasted the Chargers, 39-10, in a sea of purple shirts at Carson, CA.

“We took a hit,” said Castaneda. “It was our worst Sunday of the season. We had two of our biggest casino players go undefeated on the day betting most of those early favorites.”

One of those whales went 6-0 riding the favorites and while Castaneda didn’t divulge details of the bet amount, it’s a safe assumption all the bets were at least $100,000. The clientele at the Wynn is unlike any in Las Vegas, so the Wynn can book all games perfectly for the week and then have a few whales come in with wagers and change their entire strategy in an instant. It’s almost like the hard work during the week didn’t matter.

One of the games that flipped in opinion over the weekend was the Rams who on Friday were one of the three most wagered upon teams. The Cowboys (+1) knew the Eagles won at Washington and had to keep pace in the NFC East where the two are tied for the lead at 7-7 and they put a beat down on the Rams, 44-21, almost as bad as the Ravens did four weeks ago. But Cowboys money showed on Saturday and Sunday to make the books’ win not as large as it appeared it would. The other most one-sided bets were the Patriots and Seahawks at Carolina.

“Our best game ended up being the Seahawks despite it landing 6,” Stoneback said of Seattle’s 30-24 win. “Even though we opened -5.5 and were at -6 for a while but most of our action was taken at -6.5.”

Stoneback also said the Texans 24-21 win on the road against the Titans (-3) in the battle for the AFC South was a good result for them.

I know I’ve been staying it for the past six weeks regarding the favorites having one big week to wipe the books out, and I felt like Sunday was the day, but the underdogs made a strong comeback late. Maybe Week 16 is the week.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2019, 02:28 AM

Close Calls - Week 15
December 16, 2019
By Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 15 of the NFL regular season including two late defensive scores that made a great impact.

Baltimore Ravens (-17) 42, New York Jets 21 (44): The Ravens wrapped up this game with a 35-7 edge through three quarters but a blocked punt touchdown in the fourth put the Jets back in the conversation against the heavy underdog spread. A touchdown halfway through the fourth put the Jets within 21 after a successful two-point conversion and New York got the ball back at midfield with still five minutes remaining. On 4th-and-1 a Sam Darnold throw fell incomplete and Baltimore was able to run out the remaining clock with Robert Griffin III in the game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) 38, Detroit Lions 17 (46): The Buccaneers stormed out to a 21-0 lead in this game but the Lions slowly climbed back in the picture, completing a long touchdown drive on the first play of the fourth quarter to trail by only seven on a spread that climbed as high as +6 by kickoff. Tampa Bay missed a field goal on its next possession as the Lions were a live upset threat but with about five minutes remaining David Blough was intercepted with a 70-yard return for a touchdown. The Lions had to go for it on 4th down short of midfield on its next drive and the Buccaneers added another score to pull away for a somewhat misleading 21-point final margin. Three fourth quarter touchdowns also shifted a possible ‘under’ with 34 points through three quarters to a clear ‘over’.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6½) 37, Washington Redskins 27 (38): The Redskins led at halftime and erased a three-point deficit through three quarters with an early fourth quarter touchdown run from Adrian Peterson for a four-point lead as a home underdog. The fourth quarter would feature 33 points to soar ‘over’ the total and Philadelphia was able to set-up next week’s NFC East clash by going in front with 26 seconds to go, leading by four for the largest lead of the game for the Eagles. That would change with no time on the clock however as in desperation mode just across midfield an attempted lateral wound up going the other way for a late Eagles touchdown to flip the spread result.

Green Bay Packers (-4½) 21, Chicago Bears 13 (40½): After a low-scoring first half the Packers went in front 21-3 with two third quarter scores. The Bears added a field goal early in the fourth and later a touchdown while forcing five consecutive Green Bay punts with only one first down allowed. Down eight the Bears had three late possessions ending in an interception, stopped on downs in Green Bay territory with a failed pass interference challenge, and then delivering an incredible final play that nearly shifted the spread and total results and could have sent the game to overtime. The Bears had one second on the clock from the Green Bay 34-yard-line and opted for a short pass rather than a deep throw to the end zone. Against loose coverage Tarik Cohen had a lateral back to Mitchell Trubisky who sent the ball to Jesper Horsted who rumbled inside the 10-yard-line. Horsted failed to send the ball back one more time even with two Bears with an opening down the sideline in what could have been a score for Chicago to set-up a possible tying two-point conversion.

Houston Texans (+3) 24, Tennessee Titans 21 (50½): The Texans had a 14-0 lead in the huge AFC North contest with some big momentum swings early in this game. Deshaun Watson was intercepted for a touchback on the opening drive but Houston would block a field goal attempt for a scoreless first quarter. The play of the game was a deflected Ryan Tannehill pass to the edge of the end zone deflecting for an interception and an 86-yard return to set-up a Houston touchdown. Up 14-0 Houston stopped the Titans on downs later in the first half but Tennessee managed to score back-to-back touchdowns to tie the game around an interception of Watson in the end zone to thwart another scoring opportunity. Houston would respond with a touchdown on the next drive and later a field goal to lead by 10 but Tennessee added a score just ahead of the two-minute-warning to stay in play while keeping those on the ‘over’ in the mix for a late miracle. The Titans wouldn’t get the ball back until just 17 seconds remained and Ryan Tannehill was sacked to end the threat, narrowly avoiding a potential defensive score.

Seattle Seahawks (-6) 30, Carolina Panthers 24 (49): The Seahawks seemed to be in complete control going up 30-10 with about seven minutes remaining in the game. Those on the ‘over’ and taking the points found late life however with the Panthers scoring with about five minutes remaining on a Christian McCaffrey run while the defense then forced a quick 3-and-out. Just over minute later the Panthers were in the end zone again to send the total ‘over’ while allowing many Carolina tickets to be cashed at +6½. The scoring stopped there as Seattle was able to take a knee to eventually burn over three minutes of clock, moving to the #1 spot in the NFC.

New York Giants (-3½) 36, Miami Dolphins 20 (46½): The Dolphins trailed by one late in the third quarter despite botching two early scoring opportunities with a missed field goal while being stopped on downs at the 10-yard-line as well. A false start pinned Miami deep and a safety followed while the Giants got a good kickoff return and scored a few plays later to turn a one-point edge into a 10-point edge in quick order. Miami’s offense disappeared from there and the Giants pulled away while a 10-7 game at halftime turned into a clear ‘over’ with 39 second half points.

Buffalo Bills (+1) 17, Pittsburgh Steelers 10 (37): The Steelers led 10-7 through three quarters as a very slight favorite but the second of eventually four Devlin Hodges interceptions handed the Bills a field goal to tie the game. Buffalo didn’t have a productive offensive game but Josh Allen led the Bills 70 yards in six plays in the middle of the fourth quarter with Buffalo surviving a fumble in the red zone. Down seven the Steelers had a new set of downs at the Buffalo 26-yard line with three minutes to go but went backwards with a penalty and a sack before a fourth down interception in the end zone. Hodges would be intercepted in the end zone again in the final seconds as the Bills defense came through to send Buffalo into the postseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6½) 20, Oakland Raiders 16 (46½): Oakland appeared to have a good sendoff underway with a 16-3 lead at halftime though settling for three short field goals left the door open. The Jaguars added three in the final seconds of the third quarter to trail by 10 before the Raiders offense faltered in the fourth with a costly sack near midfield forcing a punt and then a missed field goal. The Jaguars would get two touchdowns from Gardner Minshew to Chris Conley with the go-ahead score coming with only 31 seconds to go. Oakland got a 33-yard pass interference call to have a reasonable shot late but the final two deep throws fell incomplete.

Atlanta Falcons (+10) 29, San Francisco 49ers 22 (49): The score was just 13-10 through three quarters in favor of the 49ers with the underdog points and the ‘under’ looking safe. San Francisco would score with 10 minutes remaining but missed the PAT in a key play with +10 a common number late in the week in this game. That wound up not mattering as the Falcons scored a touchdown with five minutes to go and San Francisco added a field goal after the two-minute warning for a five-point margin. Atlanta had a touchdown called back on review in the final seconds but on the final play Matt Ryan hit Julio Jones right at the goal line. Ruled short on the field, review gave Atlanta the score for the win. The Falcons did not add the conversion to lead 23-22 as the ‘under’ held but a disastrous 49ers kickoff return lateral situation after time expired would result in a fumble recovery in the end zone as Atlanta added six more points and the ‘over’ was cleared.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2019, 02:31 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 16
December 16, 2019
By VI News

Week of December 16th

After last week's piece dealt with what to expect from the CFB Playoff, it's back to the NFL version of the game this week with only two weeks left.

With the regular season almost complete, plenty of focus will be on the teams trying to grab one of those four remaining playoff spots that have yet to be clinched in the league, and rightfully so. But as is always the case in this league, division matchups during the final two weeks will go a long way in determining who gets those spots, and what seeds everyone ends up with, so that's where I'd like to start for this week's piece.

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS)

Who's Hot
Division home favorites are 7-3 ATS and 9-1 SU the past three weeks
It's been quite the run for chalk layers who are at home facing a rival since Week 12 saw teams in that role get blanked (0-3 ATS). Since then it's been a great run for these home favorites in division games, as Tennessee's outright loss vs Houston yesterday was the only time a division home favorite didn't win the game the past three weeks.

The other two ATS losses were the New York Jets 22-21 win over Miami in Houston (NYJ -5) and Philly's 23-17 OT win over the Giants last Monday (Philly -9), but throwing down on those teams on the Money-Line or in a ML parlay still came through. And when you consider that the average margin of victory by the seven home teams that did win SU and ATS the past three weeks clocks in at 16.5 points per game, there is no size of chalk that you shouldn't at least consider backing.

Given that Week 17 is the one where every team is in divisional action, this may be an angle you want to put on the back burner until then, but Week 16 does offer a few spots where this is applicable.

It all starts on with Saturday's triple-header, as the 49ers host a Los Angeles Rams team with San Francisco currently laying -6 in the market. With the Rams playoff hopes all but dashed with that loss to Dallas on Sunday, motivation becomes a big time issue with L.A. this week, and chances are that number is only going to rise. The Rams know their season is all but finished, while the 49ers are looking to get that top spot in the NFC (and NFC West title) back in their grasp. Laying the 6 points now if you like the 49ers is something you should strongly consider.

Prior to that Saturday Night Football game, we've got the New England Patriots laying nearly the identical number (-6.5) at home against the Bills that day. Motivation won't be an issue for either side as the AFC East title is still up for grabs, and both teams have already clinched a playoff spot regardless of what happens the next two weeks. Obviously a win for Buffalo in this game would be huge for their psyche going into the playoffs, never mind the chance to host a playoff game, but recent trends regarding these division home favorites doesn't do them any favors. That being said, if the Patriots are going to be the side you are looking at, it probably doesn't hurt to wait, as this number is more likely to drop then rise. Plus, who knows if it'll come out that the Patriots had staffers doing more filming of opponents for them this past week.

Flipping things over to the rest of Week 16's card, other divisional home favorites include Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs Oakland in a game where both sides likely don't give a crap, Washington (-2.5) vs the New York Giants, Seattle (-9.5) vs Arizona, and Minnesota (-4.5) vs Green Bay on Monday Night Football.

The first two games in that list are ones where you'll probably want to find a few more pieces of supporting evidence to consider backing the Chargers or Redskins, but it's quite conceivable to think that the Giants and Raiders are ready to pack things in for 2019. That's an angle worth considering there as well.

But the latter two games are much more intriguing, as Seattle will know what they need to do based on San Francisco’s result on Saturday, and Minnesota would clinch a playoff spot and still be alive for the NFC North crown with a win over the Packers. Those are two sides with plenty of motivation to grab dominant wins, and as of now, they've be the only way I'd look.

Who's Not
Backing 'Unders' in non-conference games: Only one winning week since Week 5
Non-conference games have long been a spot where 'over' bettors look to cash a few tickets, and for the bulk of this season that's exactly what has happened. Just blindly taking 'overs' when you've got a AFC team going up against a NFC team has produced a 22-17 Over/Under record overall. That's not phenomenally good by any means, but considering every week outside of Week 13's 1-3 O/U record has been at least break-even at worst (ie 1-1 O/U or better and not counting the juice), that's a pretty good angle to at least start with when you begin to break down the week's card.

Week 15's slate saw 'overs' in non-conference games go a perfect 3-0 O/U – with the Indy/New Orleans game pending – and all three of the winners in those games put up at least 36 points. When those winners include the likes of Arizona and the N.Y. Giants putting up that kind of production, you can see that it's an angle that isn't isolated to average or above average teams.

Week 16 is the last week of the year we get these non-conference tilts, so this is the last opportunity to use this approach. Of the teams involved in this angle for Week 16, many of them have nothing to play for this year other then personal pride, but given that statistics do go a long way in terms of contract negotiations for guys, padding numbers for offensive guys in this particular spot is something to consider as well.

This week's games include: Detroit at Denver (38), Jacksonville at Atlanta (45.5), New Orleans at Tennessee (51), Carolina at Indianapolis (46.5), and Kansas City at Chicago (45).

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