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Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

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  • #481
    NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


    11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
    11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
    11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
    11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
    11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
    11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
    11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

    Totals...................28-38-1.........42.42%..........-74.50


    *****************************

    BEST BETS:

    DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


    11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
    11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
    11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
    11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
    11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
    11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
    11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


    Totals.....................11 - 17..........-38.50............12 - 18..............-49.00...........-87.50


    *******************************

    NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

    Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

    BEST BETS:

    DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

    Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment

    • #482
      Monday’s 6-pack

      Top six picks for Week 11 in Westgate Super Contest:

      6) Cowboys -6.5 (825)- W

      5) Chiefs -3.5 (840)

      4) Jets +1 (892)- W

      3) Patriots -3.5 (1,071)- W

      2) Texans +4 (1,080)- L

      1) Cardinals +11 (1,192)- W

      2019 record: 32-30-3

      Quote of the Day
      “I like when adversity hits and you see what kind of guys you’ve got.”
      Vikings’ WR Stefon Diggs

      Monday’s quiz
      Durham Bulls were a single-A farm team when the famous movie Bull Durham was made; now they’re the AAA affiliate of which major league team?

      Sunday’s quiz
      The NBA’s Clippers came to LA from San Diego; they were the Buffalo Braves before going to San Diego.

      Saturday’s quiz
      Hue Jackson was coach of the Cleveland Browns at the start of the 2018 season.

      *****************************

      Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

      Cowboys 35, Lions 27:
      — Cowboys are 6-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-4 when they don’t.
      — Dallas is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as road favorites, 3-2 TY.
      — Prescott threw for 444 yards and three TD’s, averaging 9.4 ypa.

      — Detroit lost six of its last seven games.
      — WR Galladay didn’t catch a pass until there was 3:01 left in game.
      — Six of Detroit’s last eight games went over.

      Vikings 27, Broncos 23:
      — Denver led this game 20-0 at halftime.
      — Broncos had ball on Vikings’ 8-yard line when game ended, couldn’t score.
      — Denver is 23-7 ATS in last 30 post-bye games, 8-2 in last ten.

      — Vikings in 1st half: 6 series, 23 plays, 37 yards, zero points.
      — Vikings in 2nd half: 4 series, 35 plays, 279 yards, 27 points.
      — Minnesota won for 6th time in last seven games.

      Falcons 29, Panthers 3:
      — Atlanta was 1-7 before its bye; they’re 2-0 since, not allowing an offensive TD.
      — Falcons’ first TD came on a 78-yard punt return.
      — This was Atlanta’s first game outdoors this season.

      — Carolina lost three of last four games after a 4-2 start.
      — In their first eight games, Panthers were +8 in turnovers; last two weeks, minus-6.
      — Carolina lost to Atlanta for 7th time in last eight series games.

      Saints 34, Buccaneers 17:
      — Saints won seven of their last eight games.
      — NO converted 8-15 on 3rd down, outgained Bucs 457-252- they gained 9.6 yards/pass attempt.
      — Saints are 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite.

      — Buccaneers lost five of their last six games.
      — In its last five games, Tampa Bay has a minus-14 turnover ratio.
      — Seven of Tampa Bay’s last eight games went over the total.

      Colts 33, Jaguars 13:
      — Jaguars ran ball only 9 times, dropped back to pass 50 times.
      — Jacksonville didn’t have a snap inside the Colts’ 20-yard line.
      — Jags are 3-6-1 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog

      — Colts ran ball for 264 yards, outgained Jaguars 389-310.
      — Four of Indy’s six home games went over the total.
      — Home side won eight of last nine series games.

      Jets 34, Redskins 17:
      — Darnold threw for 293 yards, a career-high four TD’s.
      — Jets outgained Washington 394-225 in this game.
      — Jets’ last four games went over the total.

      — Redskins lost their last four games, outscored 52-18
      — Washington scored two TD’s on its last 35 drives.
      — Redskins are 2-10 ATS in last dozen post-bye games.

      Bills 37, Dolphins 20:
      — Buffalo outrushed the Dolphins 168-23. outgained them 424-303
      — Bills’ first four drives: 30 plays, 212 yards, one TD, three FG’s.
      — Hauschka made a 51-yard fG, snapping an 0-5 skid on 50+-yard FG’s.

      — Dolphins have been outscored 159-37 in second half of games.
      — This was first time in last five games that Miami trailed at halftime.
      — Dolphins ran a kickoff back 101 yards for a TD just before halftime.

      Ravens 41, Texans 7:
      — Watson was sacked seven times, averaged only 3.7 ypa.
      — Houston trailed at halftime in six of last eight games.
      — Texans are now 0-6 all-time in Baltimore.

      — Baltimore won its last six games, covered last four.
      — Ravens ran ball for 263 yards; only 9 of their 64 plays were on 3rd down.
      — Baltimore in 2nd half: 5 series, 30 plays, 298 yards, three TD’s, two FG’s.

      49ers 36, Cardinals 26:
      — Arizona led this game 16-0 in second quarter.
      — Cardinals were outgained 442-266, but led 26-23 with 1:00 to play.
      — Arizona covered five of its last six games as a road underdog.

      — Garoppolo was 34-45/424 passing with four TD’s.
      — 49ers’ last four games went over the total.
      — Under Shanahan, 49ers are 4-6 ATS as a home favorites, 2-3 TY

      Patriots 17, Eagles 10:
      — Both teams scored one touchdown, combined to convert 8-28 on 3rd down.
      — Once Patriots got the lead, they had six drives: 26 plays, 83 yards, six punts.
      — New England is 18-11 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.

      — Eagles’ 3rd drive was a 16-play, 95-yard TD drive; took 9:33.
      — After that drive, on 9 drives, Philly ran 44 plays for 165 yards, zero points.
      — New England had a 14-yard advantage in field position.

      Raiders 17, Bengals 10:
      — Cincy’s last nine drives: 44 plays, 158 yards, three points.
      — Bengals are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog, 4-1 TY.
      — Rookie QB Finley was 13-31/115 yards; not good.

      — Oakland (6-4) is tied atop AFC West with the Chiefs.
      — None of Raiders’ six wins are by more than 8 points.
      — Oakland had nine plays of 20+ yards, most in the league the week.

      Rams 17, Bears 7:
      — The guy who drafted Trubisky over Mahomes/Jackson should be fired. Today.
      — Chicago lost five of its last six games.
      — Bears are 4-1 when they allow 15 or fewer points, 0-5 when they allow more.

      — Rams were down three starters on OL and their two best WR’s. It showed.
      — LA’s last five games stayed under the total.
      — Rams’ OL coach and punter Hekker were great; the rookie OL played well enough.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment

      • #483
        MNF - Chiefs vs. Chargers
        Tony Mejia

        Kansas City (-5, 53) vs. L.A. Chargers, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

        Los Cargadores look to keep their fading playoff hopes alive and los Chiefs hope to wake up atop the AFC West on Tuesday morning instead of being stuck on the outside looking in with just five games left to play.

        That’s the backdrop for Monday night’s Week 11 closer, which will be played in Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca, home to the three games played south of the border since the NFL started exporting its regular-season product to try and help grow its brand internationally. The first installment in 2005 drew over 100,000 fans and the first two games this decade went off without a hitch prior to last year’s cancellation of a Rams-Chiefs game that had to be relocated because or irreparably poor field conditions due to overuse.

        The Kansas City Star reports that Club America, the soccer club that calls Azteca home, hasn’t played a game there in weeks and no concerts have been scheduled since August. That means field conditions will be pristine as the Patrick Mahomes show finally takes the stage in Mexico against the other L.A. team.

        Even if the game were being played on the moon, Kansas City (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) would be favored here and an offense that averages 28.7 points per game would dictate a total topping 50. The Chiefs have played nothing but tight, high-scoring games over the last three weeks, losing at home to the Packers before beating the Vikings while Matt Moore filled in for Mahomes. Last week featured an upset loss in Nashville where the big consolation prize to having their defense get diced up was that the reigning MVP returned from his dislocated kneecap and played brilliantly.

        Mahomes threw for three touchdowns and finished with 446 passing yards against the Titans but couldn’t suit up to play on the other side of the ball, which left him in the role of helpless bystander as Ryan Tannehill engineered a four-play, 61-yard drive to take back the lead and kicker Harrison Butker’s game-tying 52-yard field goal attempt was blocked. It wasn’t a great look for the Chiefs’ defense and special teams, which puts pressure on both units to hold up against Los Angeles (4-6, 3-6-1) in the first of two meetings against them before the season ends. Kansas City will host the regular-season finale and returns home to square off with rival Oakland on Sunday, making this the most important week of the season if they want to not stress a return to the playoffs.

        The Chargers are already in must-win mode after falling just short in a 26-24 road loss in Oakland after Philip Rivers wasn’t able to execute the same fourth-quarter rally Mahomes was tasked with in Tennessee. Rivers wasn’t able to even set up a field goal attempt as the Raiders defense got stops on poorly conceived downfield passes that seemed to ignore the fact the middle of the field was open, ending the team’s first winning streak of the season after upsets of the Bears and Packers. L.A. is 2-1 SU and ATS as an underdog this season while Kansas City has won five of eight as ‘chalk’ but has covered only half the time. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers in nine of 10. Details are available below.

        Rivers is 1-1 outside of the U.S., losing a 37-32 duel at Wembley against Drew Brees and the Saints in 2008 and beat the Titans 20-19 back in London last season. Kansas City beat the Lions 45-10 in its lone NFL International Games’ appearance back in 2015, but Mahomes does have plenty of experience on the Monday night stage and threw six touchdowns and three picks in a 54-51 loss to the Rams in that aforementioned relocated game that ended up being played at the L.A. Coliseum on Nov. 19 of last year. He won his MNF debut by helping lead a fourth-quarter comeback in Denver, throwing for over 300 yards. The second-year starter said he feels healthier than he’s been all season and no longer has to concern himself with nagging ankle and knee ailments.

        The Chiefs lead the NFL in explosive plays with 45, so Rivers is going to have to push the ball downfield while riding Melvin Gordon and the run game. He said earlier this week that he intends to return in 2020 and entered Week 11 as the league’s leader in passing yards (2,816), attempts (364) and completions (240), which bodes well for the shootout many expect. Be sure to check out “Total Talk” below to further break down the over/under game.

        Mahomes has called in kind of a “must-win” and the Chargers have made no secret of head coach Anthony Lynn having already told his team that they have to run the table if they’re going to make the playoffs, so the intensity here should be palpable and it will have a playoff-type feel given the Monday night stage and international setting. We’ll see which set of playmakers rise up and make plays, but given the number of guys who skill-wise rank among the top at their position, it should be a good show. Tyreek Hill surpassing 90 receiving yards and finding the end zone are props available at the Westgate SuperBook at -110 and have my recommendation. For a free pick on a prop, click here.

        The teams took different approaches to preparing for the altitude of Mexico City, with the Chargers working out in Colorado Springs and the Chiefs not working in altitude at all. It remains to be seen who physically holds up better, but if you’re of the belief practice makes perfect, wagering on L.A. come second half may be for you. Both teams are relatively healthy. See the injury report below for details on who won’t play.

        Los Angeles is looking for consecutive wins in this series for the first time since sweeping the regular-season meetings in 2012 and 13. Mike Williams caught a touchdown pass with four seconds left and then hauled in the two-point conversion last December in Week 15, giving the Chargers a 29-28 win. Mexico may deliver an equally higher-scoring contest and will provide a fun setting to witness just how far Mahomes can throw a football.

        TOTAL TALK

        The ‘over’ was on a 6-0 run in primetime games the last two weeks but in the two contests played under the lights in Week 11, bettors riding the low side were treated to a pair of clear-cut ‘under’ tickets. Will Monday’s finale complete the trifecta?

        Chris David offers up his thoughts and lean on the total for this AFC West matchup.

        “This total opened 49 ½ last week and as of Monday morning, most books are holding 53 and that’s a bit of a head-scratcher even though I understand that the Chiefs-Over combination is one of the most popular combinations for bettors,” said David. “When it comes to ‘over’ tickets, it takes two to tango most times and the Chargers have been very inconsistent offensively this season, often leaving points off the board with careless turnovers.”

        While Kansas City has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 this season, Los Angeles is 7-3 to the ‘under’ in 10 games. This has been an ‘over’ series recently with four of the last six going high, which includes a 2-0 record last season. The pair split those games, with the visitor coming out on top in each contest and we saw 66 and 57 combined points scored.

        Even though is technically a neutral site game, the Chargers have been deemed the home team. David dug up the numbers on the Chiefs outside of Arrowhead and he believes Kansas City’s offense will travel well for this international series matchup.

        The ‘over’ is 2-1 in games played in Mexico City and 2-2 this season in games played overseas in London. The high side has connected in three straight Chiefs games and six of the last eight involving them, while the Chargers come off surrendering their second-highest scoring output of the season in Oakland. Skies will be clear and temperatures in Mexico City are expected to be in the mid-60s, so both teams will only have to deal with altitude as far as the elements are concerned.

        “We all know Mahomes is a special talent and what we’ve seen from the kid and the Chiefs on the road is ridiculous in his short career. Since he took over as starter in 2018, Kansas City has averaged 36.1 PPG in 13 games away from Arrowhead and the ‘over’ has gone 10-3 in those matchups. The lowest scoring outcome for the offense during this span were 27 twice and 28 points, meaning KC has posted 30-plus points 11 times. The Chargers defense just isn’t the same without safety Derwin James and even when healthy last season, Mahomes notched six touchdowns in two games against Los Angeles. The team total on the Chiefs has been juiced up to 28 ½ and I fully expect Kansas City to jump that number tonight.”

        LINE MOVEMENT

        Kansas City Chiefs
        Projected season win total: 10.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
        Odds to win AFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 1/2 to 2/7
        Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 11/5 to 6/1
        Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to 12/1

        Los Angeles Chargers
        Projected season win total: 10 (Over +120, Under -140)
        Odds to win AFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 11/5 to 12/1
        Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 7/1 to 50/1
        Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 14/1 to 100/1

        INJURY CONCERNS

        Chargers tackle Russell Okung was downgraded to doubtful and likely won’t be available, making him this game’s biggest question mark. The L.A. defense will have DT Justin Jones (shoulder) and LB Denzel Perryman (knee) available to try and provide some resistance against the Chiefs. Safety Roderick Teamer is questionable. James remains out and fellow safety Adrian Phillips is in the process of coming off IR in a few weeks but also won’t be available here .

        The Chiefs will have their projected starting offensive line available for the first time since Week 2 since Eric Fisher (groin), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle), Mitchell Schwartz (ankle) and Cam Erving (ankle) have all been practicing and will return. Defensive ends Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah are out, but Frank Clark (neck) is in. WR Sammy Watkins (groin) should also be in the mix.

        RECENT MEETINGS

        (Chiefs 9-1 SU, 4-4 ATS last 10, OVER 5-3)
        12/13/18 Chargers 29-28 vs. Chiefs (LA +3.5, 54)
        9/9/18 Chiefs 38-28 at Chargers (KC +3.5, 48)
        12/16/17 Chiefs 30-13 vs. Chargers (KC -1, 47)
        9/24/17 Chiefs 24-10 vs. Chargers (KC -3, 47.5)
        1/1/17 Chiefs 37-27 at Chargers (KC -5.5, 45)
        9/11/16 Chiefs 33-27 vs. Chargers (SD +6.5, 45.5)
        12/13/15 Chiefs 10-3 vs. Chargers (SD +10.5, 44)
        11/22/15 Chiefs 33-3 at Chargers (KC -3, 45)
        12/28/14 Chiefs 19-7 vs. Chargers (KC -2.5, 42.5)
        10/19/14 Chiefs 23-20 at Chargers (KC +3, 46)

        NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

        The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 12 numbers featured the Rams and Ravens being a pick’em next Monday night, but both of these teams will be enjoying a bye week upon their return from Mexico.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment

        • #484
          Betting Recap - Week 11
          Joe Williams

          Overall Notes

          National Football League Week 11 Results

          Wager Favorites-Underdogs
          Straight Up 11-2
          Against the Spread 8-4-1

          Wager Home-Away
          Straight Up 8-5
          Against the Spread 5-7-1

          Wager Totals (O/U)
          Over-Under 7-6

          National Football League Year-to-Date Results

          Wager Favorites-Underdogs
          Straight Up 100-57-1
          Against the Spread 68-86-4

          Wager Home-Away
          Straight Up 85-72-1
          Against the Spread 67-87-4

          Wager Totals (O/U)
          Over-Under 80-77-1

          The largest underdogs to win straight up
          Falcons (+3.5, ML +165) at Panthers, 29-3
          Jets (+1.5, ML +105) at Redskins, 34-17

          The largest favorite to cover
          Bills (-7) at Dolphins, 37-20
          Cowboys (-7) at Lions, 35-27
          Rams (-5.5) vs. Bears, 17-7
          Saints (-5.5) at Buccaneers, 34-17
          Patriots (-4.5) at Eagles, 17-10
          Ravens (-4.5) vs. Texans, 41-7

          The People Are Champs

          -- The Dallas Cowboys (-7) dropped the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, and bettors laying the flat seven had the benefit of a coach playing the analytics game. Traditionally, being down eight would mean you kick the extra point and are down just seven. However, 'new school' rules have coaches down eight going for two these days. Head coach Matt Patricia instructed QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to go for two, down 35-27. That's how the game ended, as the two-point conversion failed. Cowboys side bettors can send a thank-you note to Patricia and the new-school analytics guys who have fooled coaches into these decisions. The Cowboys are now 3-2 ATS on the road, and 6-4 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' has hit in three in a row, and five of the past six.

          Another favorite team of the betting public, the New England Patriots (-4.5) ended up scratching out a 17-10 road win against the Philadelphia Eagles. You didn't really think the QB Tom Brady and the Patriots were going to lose consecutive games, did you? The Patriots bounced back from a road loss on SNF Nov. 3, and they're now 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS. The 'under' has connected in seven games.

          The Cowboys and Patriots meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in Week 12, so the public will have to decide which team they like to back more, and which total trend they're feeling more.

          Total Recall

          -- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens (51.5) and New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5). The Ravens certainly did their part, scoring 41 points, but the Texans were only able to post seven points. Over bettors were hurt by Baltimore's defense, as well as a scoreless first quarter which is obviously never good for business.

          As far as the Saints were concerned, they rebounded after forgetting how to play offense last week at home against Atlanta. They posted 13 points in the opening quarter, and they had 20 points by half. New Orleans posted seven or more points in each quarter, and that was good enough to overcome two scoreless quarters by the Bucs - just barely. The game cashed by a half-point at most shops.

          The next two highest games on the board -- the Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (49) and Cincinnati Bengals-Oakland Raiders (48) games never really took off. The Falcons defense showed up for a second straight week, allowing single-digit points and zero touchdowns in a 29-3 win. The Bengals and Raiders remembered how to play defense, and totaled just 27 points.

          There was only one total on the board under 40, and that was the New York Jets-Washington Redskins (37.5) game. The Jets offense was surprising NFL-caliber, posting 34 points, including a career-high four touchdown passes by QB Sam Darnold. In fact, he is now the youngest quarterback in franchise history to toss four TDs in a game, as Hall of Famer Joe Namath was nine days older when he turned the trick in Nov. 21, 1965.

          After a six-game 'over' primetime streak, the 'under' has cashed in each of the first two primetime games of Week 11, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City-Los Angeles Chargers (53) from Mexico City still pending. The 'over' is just 12-21 (36.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

          Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

          In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

          In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

          In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

          In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

          Injury Report

          -- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (hip) reportedly suffered a hip injury late in the loss on the road against the Rams. It's uncertain if he'll miss time, but it's something to watch going forward.

          -- Colts RB Marlon Mack (hand) suffered a fractured hand in Sunday's win over the Jaguars. It's uncertain how long he'll be sidelined or if he'll be able to play with a cast, etc.

          Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

          -- Thursday's game between the Colts and Texans is an important game between two 6-4 clubs, and it will be interesting to see if Mack is able to play or not. The Texans got licked in Baltimore, so they'll be angry. They also lost 30-23 in the first meeting in Indianapolis back on Oct. 20, so there is the revenge factor, too. Houston enters this one 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and they're 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in their four previous home games.

          -- The Bucs and Falcons face each other for the first time in six games. The Buccaneers are in a swoon, losing five of the past six while failing to cover six in a row. The one consistent factor for bettors and the Bucs is the 'over', cashing in each of the past eight after two 'under' results to start the season. In fact, the over has hit for the Bucs more often than any other team. It's the opposite for the Falcons, as the 'under' is 7-3 in their 10 games so far. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six meetings in Atlanta, and five of six meetings overall in the series, The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four battles with the favorite 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings.

          -- The Panthers and Saints square off in a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. These teams meet for the first of two battles over the final six games. Carolina is 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings, and the offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG. For New Orleans, They have posted a 7-1 SU/ATS mark across the past eight. In this series, the over is 6-0 in the past six meetings in New Orleans, and 8-2 in the past 10 overall. Of course, most of those games involved QB Cam Newton, not QB Kyle Allen, although the final meeting of 2018 was, in fact, an Allen start in Week 17. The Panthers won that game 33-14 in NOLA, an 'over' result, but QB Drew Brees didn't play.

          -- The Steelers and winless Bengals square off in the Queen City. These teams met in Pittsburgh Sept. 30, with the Steelers winning 27-3 in an 'under' result. This will be QB Ryan Finley's first experience in the rivalry. The offense is averaging just 11.5 PPG in his two starts so far, going 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS. It's expected QB Mason Rudolph will be under center, although it's possible there is still more fallout from 'Helmet-gate', or whatever you want to call the Browns-Steelers brawl last Thursday. Stay tuned.

          -- The Jaguars and Titans hook up in the Music City, and QB Nick Foles will make his third start of the season, while QB Ryan Tannehill gets his first start in a Tennessee uni against the Jags. The Jaguars are 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 against AFC South teams, including 0-1 in Foles' first divisional game in Indianapolis in Week 11. The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 vs. AFC South foes, so something's gotta give. Since taking over as start, the Titans are 3-1 SU/ATS under Tannehill, averaging 26.3 PPG with four consecutive 'over' results. These teams met in Week 3, a 20-7 win by the Jags. But neither of these QBs were under center.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment

          • #485
            NFL Week 12 opening odds and early action: Patriots already land $53K bet vs Cowboys
            Patrick Everson

            Tom Brady has New England tied for the NFL's best SU and ATS records, at 9-1 and 7-3 respectively. The Patriots opened -6.5 at home against the Cowboys in a marquee Week 13 contest.

            Week 12 of the NFL season features America’s team against the best team of this millennium. We check in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

            Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5)

            Defending Super Bowl champion New England regained its winning form after a bye week that followed its first loss of the year. The Patriots (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) went off as 4.5-point favorites at Philadelphia and notched a 17-10 victory.

            Dallas rebounded from a Week 10 home loss to Minnesota, though Jason Garrett’s troops got a stern test from a Detroit outfit missing Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys (6-4 SU and ATS) claimed a 35-27 win, narrowly cashing as 7.5-point road favorites.

            “We opened Patriots -6.5 and are still there, despite taking a bet of $53,500 on New England already,” Murray said. “This will be one of the highest-handle games of the year to date.”

            Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

            Like New England, San Francisco rebounded from its first setback of the season, though Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. got a fight from Arizona. The 49ers (9-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) won 36-26, returning a fumble for a touchdown on the game’s last play to push as 10-point home favorites.

            Green Bay is coming off its bye week with an 8-2 SU mark, and it’s tied for the league lead at 7-3 ATS. In Week 9, the Packers topped Carolina 24-16 laying 5 points at home.

            “The Sunday night game will also be a huge-handle game,” Murray said. “I’m expecting a lot of public support for the ‘dog. The 49ers are very banged up, and the Packers are coming in off their bye. I could see this number drifting closer to pick.”

            Indeed, shortly after opening the Niners -4, the line tightened to 49ers -3 (even).

            Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

            Indianapolis lost starting quarterback Andrew Luck to a surprise retirement two weeks before the season began. Yet through 11 weeks, the Colts (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are tied atop the AFC South after rolling over Jacksonville 33-13 as 2.5-point home faves Sunday.

            Houston gave up sole possession of first in the division with a dud of a Week 11 performance. The Texans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) mustered only one score – a fourth-quarter TD after trailing 34-0 – in a 41-7 loss at Baltimore catching 4 points.

            This battle for the division lead kicks off Week 12, as it's the Thursday night game.

            “Our look-ahead line was Texans -5.5, but that was before the Texans got crushed by the Ravens and the Colts put together an impressive win over the Jaguars,” Murray said. “Houston has struggled in this home-favorite role in recent seasons.”

            Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9)

            Drew Brees missed five games for New Orleans, but his team still owns a three-game lead in the NFC South. In Week 11, Brees and the Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) dumped Tampa Bay 34-17 giving 5 points on the road.

            Carolina made a 5-1 SU and ATS run to start turning heads, then dropped two in a row SU and ATS. The Panthers (5-5 SU and ATS) were 3.5-point home favorites Sunday against Atlanta and came up with a mere fourth-quarter field goal in a 29-3 beatdown.

            “We opened Saints -9 and quickly moved up to -9.5,” Murray said. “New Orleans will be a very popular public side included in many parlays and moneyline parlays.”
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment

            • #486
              MONDAY, NOVEMBER 18
              GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

              KC at LAC 08:15 PM

              KC -5.0

              U 52.5
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment

              • #487
                Mahomes, Chiefs hold off Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City
                November 18, 2019

                MEXICO CITY (AP) Daniel Sorensen picked off Philip Riversâ?? fourth interception at the goal line with 18 seconds to play, and the Kansas City Chiefs stayed on top of the AFC West with a 24-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night at Azteca Stadium.

                Patrick Mahomes passed for 182 yards and hit Travis Kelce for his only touchdown, while LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams rushed for touchdowns as the Chiefs (7-4) hung on to win the fourth regular-season NFL game played in Mexico despite a few problems with Aztecaâ??s grass field and a one-sided first half favoring the Chargers (4-7), who racked up 312 yards without a touchdown.

                After throwing his second interception of the season in the first half, Mahomes led two sharp scoring drives in the third quarter with help from Kelce, who caught seven passes for 92 yards. The Chiefs held Los Angeles to eight points in the second half, and Sorensen grabbed Riversâ?? underthrown pass to Austin Ekeler at the goal line to secure the Chiefsâ?? 10th win over Los Angeles in 11 meetings.

                Rivers passed for 353 yards during his first four-interception game since November 2016 for the Chargers, whose playoff hopes are nearly dead after five losses in seven games. Keenan Allen caught his first TD pass since Week 3 in the third quarter, but the Chargers had three inept drives in the scoreless fourth quarter.

                On the Boltsâ?? last gasp, Mike Williams made a spectacular 50-yard catch with 44 seconds to play. Los Angeles reached the Kansas City 14 before Riversâ?? final mistake. Rivers, who turns 38 next month, has thrown seven interceptions in the Chargersâ?? last two games.

                One year after the NFL called off a game at Azteca Stadium on short notice because of poor field conditions, these teams played an entertaining game in the 7,200-foot elevation and on the Azteca grass, which yielded several significant divots from sharp stops or changes of direction.

                The Rams and Chiefs were scheduled to play here last season, but severe damage to the turf field compelled the NFL to relocate the game to Los Angeles on six daysâ?? notice.

                Azteca removed its hybrid turf and installed natural grass this year, and the field had been untouched since Club Américaâ??s last home soccer game Nov. 2. The grounds crew came onto the field at halftime and during timeouts in the second half to attend to the worst spots.

                The NFL and the stadium still threw an impressive party for 76,252 of Mexicoâ??s football-loving fans, who packed the arena and mostly supported the Chargers, the nominal home team.

                Although the teams spent less than 48 hours in Mexicoâ??s capital city, the NFL has deep roots among fans around the country. Commissioner Roger Goodell met Monday with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador while the league and the federal government are considering extending the Mexico game series beyond its current deal through 2021.

                The game was particularly special to Chargers cornerback Michael Davis, the son of a U.S. immigrant from Mexico City. Davis got to play in front of his grandparents for the first time.

                But the Chargers trailed 10-9 at halftime despite outgaining Kansas City 312-109 and making five drives into Chiefs territory. Rivers threw two interceptions and Michael Badgley missed a 40-yard field goal attempt while making three others, wasting a defensive effort that included Rayshawn Jenkins picking off Mahomes.

                Tyreek Hill left the field with a right hamstring injury after the Chiefsâ?? second offensive series, although it didnâ??t appear to be caused by the turf. The speedster watched the second half from the sideline.

                Tyrann Mathieuâ??s 35-yard interception return set up McCoyâ??s 6-yard TD run for the gameâ??s first touchdown in the second quarter. After Williams scored on the Chiefsâ?? opening drive of the second half, Mahomes hit Kelce with a picture-perfect 23-yard TD throw on the next drive.

                Rivers and Allen answered with a TD connection late in the third quarter and a 2-point conversion. The two-time Pro Bowl receiver improbably hadnâ??t caught a TD pass since Week 3.

                INJURIES

                Chiefs: Along with Hill, RB Damien Williams was lost to a rib injury and safety Jordan Lucas went out with a shoulder injury. ... Center Austin Reiter was evaluated for a concussion but returned.

                Chargers: LT Russell Okung missed his second straight game with a groin injury. ... Allen went down hard on the final play of a drive in the second quarter but returned.

                UP NEXT

                Chiefs: A bye week followed by an important visit from the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, Dec. 1.

                Chargers: After a bye week, a trip to face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Dec. 1.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment

                • #488
                  WEEK 12

                  Thursday, November 21, 2019
                  Time (ET) Away Home
                  8:20 PM Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans

                  Sunday, November 24, 2019
                  Time (ET) Away Home
                  1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta Falcons
                  1:00 PM Denver Broncos Buffalo Bills
                  1:00 PM New York Giants Chicago Bears
                  1:00 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals
                  1:00 PM Miami Dolphins Cleveland Browns
                  1:00 PM Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints
                  1:00 PM Oakland Raiders New York Jets
                  1:00 PM Detroit Lions Washington Redskins
                  1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles
                  4:05 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans
                  4:25 PM Dallas Cowboys New England Patriots
                  8:20 PM Green Bay Packers San Francisco 49ers

                  Monday, November 25, 2019
                  Time (ET) Away Home
                  8:15 PM Baltimore Ravens Los Angeles Rams


                  *********************************


                  NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

                  DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

                  11/18/2019.............2-0-0........100.00%........+10.00
                  11/17/2019...........6-13-1..........31.58%.........-41.50
                  11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
                  11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
                  11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
                  11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
                  11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
                  11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

                  Totals...................30-38-1.........44.11%..........-64.50


                  *****************************

                  BEST BETS:

                  DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

                  11/18/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+10.00
                  11/17/2019..............0 - 8............-44.00............4 - 4...............-2.00..............-46.00
                  11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
                  11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
                  11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
                  11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
                  11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
                  11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


                  Totals.....................12 - 17..........-33.50............13 - 18..............-44.00...........-77.50


                  *******************************

                  NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

                  Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

                  BEST BETS:

                  DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

                  Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment

                  • #489
                    Tuesday’s 6-pack

                    Some of this weekend’s interesting college football games:

                    — Michigan (-8.5) @ Indiana

                    — Kansas State @ Texas Tech (-2.5)

                    — Duke @ Wake Forest (-7)

                    — Oklahoma State (-7) @ West Virginia

                    — UCLA @ USC (-13.5)

                    — California @ Stanford (-3)

                    Quote of the Day
                    “The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing.”
                    Walt Disney

                    Tuesday’s quiz
                    Where did Philip Rivers play his college football?

                    Monday’s quiz
                    Durham Bulls were a single-A team when the famous movie Bull Durham was made; now they’re the AAA affiliate of the Tampa Bay Rays.

                    Sunday’s quiz
                    The NBA’s Clippers came to LA from San Diego; they were the Buffalo Braves before going to San Diego.

                    ******************

                    Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

                    13) Quarterbacks taken in first round of 2017 NFL Draft:
                    pick #2— Mitch Trubisky, Bears
                    #10— Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
                    #12— Deshaun Watson, Texans

                    12) Not to beat a dead horse, but Chicago traded up to get from the 3rd pick to the 2nd pick; here is what they gave San Francisco to get the #2 pick:
                    — #3 pick in 1st round of 2017 draft.
                    — 3rd and 4th round picks in 2017 draft.
                    — 3rd round pick in 2018 draft.

                    11) Chiefs 24, Chargers 17:
                    — Chargers outgained KC 312-109 in first half, but trailed 10-9 at halftime.
                    — Chargers scored only 13 points on four red zone trips.
                    — Rivers threw seven INT’s in last two games; maybe it wasn’t Ken Whisenhunt’s fault.

                    10) In their last four games, New England has won field position by 13-11-15-14 yards; because they win the turnover battle and have better special teams, they play on a shorter field than their opponents do.

                    In their last six games, Patriots outscored opponents 69-26 in the 2nd half, giving up 20 of those 26 points in their 37-20 loss at Baltimore.

                    9) Kentucky 82, Utah Valley 74— Wildcats are struggling with their defense early on. Luckily in this game, they outscored Utah Valley 31-11 on foul line- they made only 1-12 on the arc.

                    8) SMU 59, Evansville 57— Last week the Purple Aces beat Kentucky as a 25-point underdog; they lost this game at home to SMU.

                    7) Dallas 117, San Antonio 110— Spurs are 5-9; they lost their last six games, and 8 of last 9.

                    6) Houston 132, Portland 108— Rockets won/covered their last eight games.

                    5) Clippers 90, Thunder 88— Kawhi Leonard missed his 3rd straight game, his fifth game this season; he played in 69 of 182 games the last two seasons, but led Toronto to an NBA title LY.

                    Clippers owe Leonard $103,147,300 over the next three seasons.

                    Paul George scored 18 points in 29:00 against his old team.

                    4) The Disney+ app had over 10 million signups in its first week; I’m not big on animated movies, so doubtful I’ll get it, but they’re making a lot of money with it.

                    3) A Maryland high school teacher is facing assault charges following a fight with a 17-year-old student that was caught on camera; both combatants are females.

                    2) When Cleveland Cavaliers played the Knicks last nite, they were the last team NBA this year to play on consecutive nights; Nashville Predators are only NHL team that hasn’t played games on back/back nights yet this season.

                    1) In case you were wondering, the last NFL team that didn’t punt in consecutive games were the 2004 Steelers, who did it in Weeks 15-16 that year, in wins the Giants/Ravens. ’04 Steelers went 15-1, but lost the AFC title game.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment

                    • #490
                      Bettors strike back in Week 11
                      November 18, 2019
                      By Micah Roberts

                      Perhaps the tide has finally turned for bettors in NFL action after losing most of the first 10 weeks of the season. Sunday’s Week 11 saw favorites go 7-5 against-the-spread with only two underdogs winning outright, but it was the popular favorites that all got there together to produce some formidable parlay risk the books couldn’t escape.

                      William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich described their Sunday results as “horrible” while South Point’s Chris Andrews described it as “terrible” if that helps give an indication of how the books did.

                      “It’s going to be a losing day,” conceded Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game. “The Patriots were bad with several other games.”

                      The ongoing trend with bettors during the Tom Brady era is to always bet Bill Belichick to come up with a great game plan to win following a loss and it held true again as the Patriots won 17-10 at Philadelphia, a game that ran from Patriots -3.5 to -5 by kickoff.

                      “We’re stuck to the day,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. “We really needed the Lions and Eagles and didn’t get either of those. The Eagles looked good enough to win, but (Carson) Wentz didn’t have his best game and his receivers dropped a few passes in key moments.”

                      Part of the reason the Lions didn’t get the cover or push was because of Lions coach Matt Patricia’s choice to go for a two-point conversion after a touchdown late in the game when down by 8-points. He was looking to get to a 6-point deficit and then, I guess, win the game with a TD on their next possession. The Lions did not succeed and the final score was 35-27, a game where most of the wagers were bet on the Cowboys at -7.

                      “I just don’t understand the move,” DiTommaso said. “And I’m not just saying it because a push would have been better for us, but the 2-point attempt in that situation just doesn’t make any sense.”

                      The favorites that killed the books included the Cowboys, Patriots, Saints (-5 in 34-17 win at Tampa Bay), and Ravens (-4.5 in 41-7 win vs Texans). That’s a four-team parlay at 10-to-1 odds at most shops (CG books use true odds) is an escalation of odds that books couldn’t make up through any straight bets. And then there were the teasers that cashed on the big favorites that didn’t cover as well.

                      “We really needed one of those 10-point favorites not cover on the teasers,” Bogdanovich said.

                      Crossing over big key numbers is always the key for teaser bettors and there were three of them Sunday. None of them covered, but they all covered on the teaser and all the underdogs covered as well. The Vikings dropped from -10.5 to -9.5 in their 27-23 home win against the Broncos and the Raiders won 17-10 at home against the winless Bengals while the 49ers won 36-26 at home against the Cardinals where many books closed -9.5 after opening -11.5. It didn’t matter, any side you played in a teaser in those games covered.

                      The ending of the 49ers game had me baffled regarding the NFL’s integrity by not reviewing the final sequence of the final play of the game that resulted in a 49ers touchdown. While the NFL wants to somehow monetize sports betting after dissociating itself from gambling forever, they failed in a game where the spread was in play. After Larry Fitzgerald threw a pass backward to one of his teammates, it was not caught and became a live fumble. The 49ers jumped on it and a Cardinals player touched him. It should have been the end of the game, 30-26. But then the ball was lodged loose in the final scrum and 49er players slapped the ball towards their end zone and one player even kicked the ball giving it more velocity and a 49ers player scooped it up for ran it in for the TD.

                      “How come no one is talking about the last score in the Niners game,” Bogdanovich said. “The guy was clearly down.

                      He was down, but rather than review it, the referees ran off the field and the 49ers even didn’t kick the extra point leaving it at 10. There’s no conspiracy theory here, it’s more about incompetence by the league and officials. They cowardly ran away basically saying “no big deal, the 49ers were winning before and they still won.”

                      But scores matter. Integrity matters. Bettors who took +9.5 late or +10 with the Cardinals after watching them do what they wanted offensively all afternoon got hosed in this game. The officials didn’t review the play, because the integrity of the score apparently doesn’t matter to them.

                      More than incompetence, I just think it was lazy. In this era of integrity. Could the NFL please get some full-time officials focused on everything, including the betting numbers. No more blind eyes about the numbers, because if all these leagues keep talking about integrity then the number should be a starting point and make it fair officiating for all. The late bettors on the Cardinals Sunday didn’t get any piece of integrity or justice given to them in Week 11.

                      The Sunday NFL loss, coupled with a brutal Saturday loss in college football, made it the worst weekend of the football season so far. It was nice to see the public stay strong with their favorite teams and finally cash and the ensuing weeks could something similar because at least twice a year there is a tidal wave loss in the books.

                      Week 11 might not be described a tidal wave loss, but it's certainly the best Sunday bettors have had against the books in 11 weeks of NFL action.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment

                      • #491
                        Betting Recap - Week 11
                        Joe Williams

                        Overall Notes

                        National Football League Week 11 Results

                        Wager Favorites-Underdogs
                        Straight Up 11-2
                        Against the Spread 8-4-1

                        Wager Home-Away
                        Straight Up 8-5
                        Against the Spread 5-7-1

                        Wager Totals (O/U)
                        Over-Under 7-6

                        National Football League Year-to-Date Results

                        Wager Favorites-Underdogs
                        Straight Up 100-57-1
                        Against the Spread 68-86-4

                        Wager Home-Away
                        Straight Up 85-72-1
                        Against the Spread 67-87-4

                        Wager Totals (O/U)
                        Over-Under 80-77-1

                        The largest underdogs to win straight up
                        Falcons (+3.5, ML +165) at Panthers, 29-3
                        Jets (+1.5, ML +105) at Redskins, 34-17

                        The largest favorite to cover
                        Bills (-7) at Dolphins, 37-20
                        Cowboys (-7) at Lions, 35-27
                        Rams (-5.5) vs. Bears, 17-7
                        Saints (-5.5) at Buccaneers, 34-17
                        Patriots (-4.5) at Eagles, 17-10
                        Ravens (-4.5) vs. Texans, 41-7

                        The People Are Champs

                        -- The Dallas Cowboys (-7) dropped the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, and bettors laying the flat seven had the benefit of a coach playing the analytics game. Traditionally, being down eight would mean you kick the extra point and are down just seven. However, 'new school' rules have coaches down eight going for two these days. Head coach Matt Patricia instructed QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to go for two, down 35-27. That's how the game ended, as the two-point conversion failed. Cowboys side bettors can send a thank-you note to Patricia and the new-school analytics guys who have fooled coaches into these decisions. The Cowboys are now 3-2 ATS on the road, and 6-4 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' has hit in three in a row, and five of the past six.

                        Another favorite team of the betting public, the New England Patriots (-4.5) ended up scratching out a 17-10 road win against the Philadelphia Eagles. You didn't really think the QB Tom Brady and the Patriots were going to lose consecutive games, did you? The Patriots bounced back from a road loss on SNF Nov. 3, and they're now 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS. The 'under' has connected in seven games.

                        The Cowboys and Patriots meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in Week 12, so the public will have to decide which team they like to back more, and which total trend they're feeling more.

                        Total Recall

                        -- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens (51.5) and New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5). The Ravens certainly did their part, scoring 41 points, but the Texans were only able to post seven points. Over bettors were hurt by Baltimore's defense, as well as a scoreless first quarter which is obviously never good for business.

                        As far as the Saints were concerned, they rebounded after forgetting how to play offense last week at home against Atlanta. They posted 13 points in the opening quarter, and they had 20 points by half. New Orleans posted seven or more points in each quarter, and that was good enough to overcome two scoreless quarters by the Bucs - just barely. The game cashed by a half-point at most shops.

                        The next two highest games on the board -- the Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (49) and Cincinnati Bengals-Oakland Raiders (48) games never really took off. The Falcons defense showed up for a second straight week, allowing single-digit points and zero touchdowns in a 29-3 win. The Bengals and Raiders remembered how to play defense, and totaled just 27 points.

                        There was only one total on the board under 40, and that was the New York Jets-Washington Redskins (37.5) game. The Jets offense was surprising NFL-caliber, posting 34 points, including a career-high four touchdown passes by QB Sam Darnold. In fact, he is now the youngest quarterback in franchise history to toss four TDs in a game, as Hall of Famer Joe Namath was nine days older when he turned the trick in Nov. 21, 1965.

                        After a six-game 'over' primetime streak, the 'under' has cashed in each of the first two primetime games of Week 11, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City-Los Angeles Chargers (53) from Mexico City still pending. The 'over' is just 12-21 (36.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

                        Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

                        In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

                        In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

                        In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

                        In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

                        Injury Report

                        -- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (hip) reportedly suffered a hip injury late in the loss on the road against the Rams. It's uncertain if he'll miss time, but it's something to watch going forward.

                        -- Colts RB Marlon Mack (hand) suffered a fractured hand in Sunday's win over the Jaguars. It's uncertain how long he'll be sidelined or if he'll be able to play with a cast, etc.

                        Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

                        -- Thursday's game between the Colts and Texans is an important game between two 6-4 clubs, and it will be interesting to see if Mack is able to play or not. The Texans got licked in Baltimore, so they'll be angry. They also lost 30-23 in the first meeting in Indianapolis back on Oct. 20, so there is the revenge factor, too. Houston enters this one 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and they're 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in their four previous home games.

                        -- The Bucs and Falcons face each other for the first time in six games. The Buccaneers are in a swoon, losing five of the past six while failing to cover six in a row. The one consistent factor for bettors and the Bucs is the 'over', cashing in each of the past eight after two 'under' results to start the season. In fact, the over has hit for the Bucs more often than any other team. It's the opposite for the Falcons, as the 'under' is 7-3 in their 10 games so far. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six meetings in Atlanta, and five of six meetings overall in the series, The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four battles with the favorite 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings.

                        -- The Panthers and Saints square off in a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. These teams meet for the first of two battles over the final six games. Carolina is 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings, and the offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG. For New Orleans, They have posted a 7-1 SU/ATS mark across the past eight. In this series, the over is 6-0 in the past six meetings in New Orleans, and 8-2 in the past 10 overall. Of course, most of those games involved QB Cam Newton, not QB Kyle Allen, although the final meeting of 2018 was, in fact, an Allen start in Week 17. The Panthers won that game 33-14 in NOLA, an 'over' result, but QB Drew Brees didn't play.

                        -- The Steelers and winless Bengals square off in the Queen City. These teams met in Pittsburgh Sept. 30, with the Steelers winning 27-3 in an 'under' result. This will be QB Ryan Finley's first experience in the rivalry. The offense is averaging just 11.5 PPG in his two starts so far, going 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS. It's expected QB Mason Rudolph will be under center, although it's possible there is still more fallout from 'Helmet-gate', or whatever you want to call the Browns-Steelers brawl last Thursday. Stay tuned.

                        -- The Jaguars and Titans hook up in the Music City, and QB Nick Foles will make his third start of the season, while QB Ryan Tannehill gets his first start in a Tennessee uni against the Jags. The Jaguars are 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 against AFC South teams, including 0-1 in Foles' first divisional game in Indianapolis in Week 11. The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 vs. AFC South foes, so something's gotta give. Since taking over as start, the Titans are 3-1 SU/ATS under Tannehill, averaging 26.3 PPG with four consecutive 'over' results. These teams met in Week 3, a 20-7 win by the Jags. But neither of these QBs were under center.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment

                        • #492
                          109INDIANAPOLIS -110 HOUSTON
                          HOUSTON is 16-2 ATS (13.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.

                          251MIAMI -252 CLEVELAND
                          CLEVELAND is 26-55 ATS (-34.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.

                          253DENVER -254 BUFFALO
                          BUFFALO is 46-77 ATS (-38.7 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

                          255PITTSBURGH -256 CINCINNATI
                          CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after going under the total in the current season.

                          257NY GIANTS -258 CHICAGO
                          CHICAGO is 53-27 ATS (23.3 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

                          259OAKLAND -260 NY JETS
                          OAKLAND is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

                          261CAROLINA -262 NEW ORLEANS
                          CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 - 13 in the last 2 seasons.

                          263TAMPA BAY -264 ATLANTA
                          TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 straight overs in the current season.

                          265DETROIT -266 WASHINGTON
                          WASHINGTON is 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.

                          267JACKSONVILLE -268 TENNESSEE
                          TENNESSEE is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points since 1992.

                          269DALLAS -270 NEW ENGLAND
                          NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

                          271GREEN BAY -272 SAN FRANCISCO
                          GREEN BAY is 74-47 ATS (22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

                          273SEATTLE -274 PHILADELPHIA
                          SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.

                          275BALTIMORE -276 LA RAMS
                          BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games in the 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.


                          *******************************


                          NFL
                          Long Sheet

                          Week 12

                          Thursday, November 21

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 4) - 11/21/2019, 8:20 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          INDIANAPOLIS is 109-81 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
                          HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
                          INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
                          4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          Sunday, November 24

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          MIAMI (2 - 8) at CLEVELAND (4 - 6) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
                          MIAMI is 61-86 ATS (-33.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
                          MIAMI is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
                          CLEVELAND is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          DENVER (3 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 3) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
                          BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
                          1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          PITTSBURGH (5 - 5) at CINCINNATI (0 - 10) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          PITTSBURGH is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
                          PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
                          3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          NY GIANTS (2 - 8) at CHICAGO (4 - 6) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          NY GIANTS are 39-66 ATS (-33.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
                          NY GIANTS are 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
                          NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
                          CHICAGO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
                          NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
                          1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          OAKLAND (6 - 4) at NY JETS (3 - 7) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          OAKLAND is 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
                          OAKLAND is 41-83 ATS (-50.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
                          OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
                          OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
                          1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          CAROLINA (5 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.
                          NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
                          CAROLINA is 120-90 ATS (+21.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
                          NEW ORLEANS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
                          NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
                          4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          TAMPA BAY (3 - 7) at ATLANTA (3 - 7) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
                          TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
                          TAMPA BAY is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
                          ATLANTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                          ATLANTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                          ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
                          ATLANTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
                          ATLANTA is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
                          ATLANTA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
                          ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
                          3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          DETROIT (3 - 6 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 9) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          DETROIT is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
                          DETROIT is 146-183 ATS (-55.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
                          DETROIT is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
                          WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
                          WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
                          WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
                          WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
                          WASHINGTON is 25-49 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          JACKSONVILLE (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (5 - 5) - 11/24/2019, 4:05 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          TENNESSEE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
                          TENNESSEE is 119-157 ATS (-53.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
                          TENNESSEE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          TENNESSEE is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
                          TENNESSEE is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
                          3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          DALLAS (6 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 1) - 11/24/2019, 4:25 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          DALLAS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 198-149 ATS (+34.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 129-89 ATS (+31.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
                          NEW ENGLAND is 91-56 ATS (+29.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          GREEN BAY (8 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 1) - 11/24/2019, 8:20 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          GREEN BAY is 198-142 ATS (+41.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
                          GREEN BAY is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
                          SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
                          GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
                          1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          SEATTLE (8 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
                          SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
                          PHILADELPHIA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
                          SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
                          1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          Monday, November 25

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          BALTIMORE (8 - 2) at LA RAMS (6 - 4) - 11/25/2019, 8:15 PM
                          Top Trends for this game.
                          LA RAMS are 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
                          LA RAMS are 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
                          LA RAMS are 73-106 ATS (-43.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
                          LA RAMS are 71-104 ATS (-43.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
                          LA RAMS are 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


                          **************************************


                          NFL

                          Week 12

                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Trend Report
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          Thursday, November 21

                          Houston Texans
                          Houston is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
                          Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
                          Houston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games at home
                          Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
                          Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
                          Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
                          Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
                          The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
                          Indianapolis Colts
                          Indianapolis is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
                          Indianapolis is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
                          Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
                          Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Houston
                          Indianapolis is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
                          Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
                          The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Houston


                          Sunday, November 24

                          Chicago Bears
                          Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
                          Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
                          Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games at home
                          Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
                          Chicago is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
                          Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
                          Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
                          Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
                          The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chicago's last 14 games when playing NY Giants
                          Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
                          Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
                          New York Giants
                          NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
                          NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
                          NY Giants is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
                          NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
                          NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
                          NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
                          The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Giants's last 14 games when playing Chicago
                          NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
                          NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago

                          New Orleans Saints
                          New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
                          New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
                          New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
                          New Orleans is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home
                          New Orleans is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
                          New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
                          New Orleans is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Carolina
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
                          Carolina Panthers
                          Carolina is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
                          Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
                          Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
                          Carolina is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
                          Carolina is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
                          Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
                          Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

                          Buffalo Bills
                          Buffalo is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
                          Buffalo is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
                          Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
                          Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
                          Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing Denver
                          Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
                          Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
                          Denver Broncos
                          Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
                          Denver is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 19 games
                          Denver is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
                          Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
                          The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games on the road
                          Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
                          Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
                          Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
                          Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

                          Cincinnati Bengals
                          Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
                          Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                          Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home
                          Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
                          Cincinnati is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
                          Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
                          Cincinnati is 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
                          Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
                          Pittsburgh Steelers
                          Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
                          Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
                          The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road
                          Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
                          Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
                          Pittsburgh is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
                          Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

                          Cleveland Browns
                          Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
                          Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
                          Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
                          Cleveland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games at home
                          Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
                          Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Miami
                          Miami Dolphins
                          Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
                          Miami is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games
                          Miami is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
                          Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
                          The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games on the road
                          Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
                          Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Cleveland

                          Atlanta Falcons
                          Atlanta is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
                          Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
                          Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home
                          Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
                          Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
                          Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
                          Tampa Bay Buccaneers
                          Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
                          Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
                          Tampa Bay is 7-12-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
                          Tampa Bay is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
                          Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
                          Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
                          Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

                          Washington Redskins
                          Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
                          Washington is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
                          Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
                          Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games at home
                          Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
                          Washington is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing Detroit
                          Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
                          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Detroit
                          Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
                          Washington is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Detroit
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
                          Detroit Lions
                          Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
                          Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
                          Detroit is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
                          Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
                          Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
                          Detroit is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Washington
                          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing Washington
                          Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
                          Detroit is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington

                          New York Jets
                          NY Jets is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games
                          NY Jets is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
                          NY Jets is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
                          NY Jets is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home
                          The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Jets's last 12 games at home
                          NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Oakland
                          NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
                          NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
                          Oakland Raiders
                          Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
                          Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games
                          Oakland is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
                          Oakland is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
                          Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
                          Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
                          Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets

                          Philadelphia Eagles
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
                          Philadelphia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
                          Philadelphia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 18 games at home
                          Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
                          Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Seattle
                          Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
                          Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
                          Seattle Seahawks
                          Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 19 games
                          Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
                          Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games on the road
                          Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
                          Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
                          Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
                          Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

                          Tennessee Titans
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
                          Tennessee is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
                          The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games at home
                          Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
                          Tennessee is 6-10-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Jacksonville
                          Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
                          Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
                          Jacksonville Jaguars
                          Jacksonville is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games
                          Jacksonville is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
                          Jacksonville is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
                          Jacksonville is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
                          Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
                          Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
                          Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
                          Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

                          New England Patriots
                          New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
                          New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games
                          New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
                          New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games at home
                          New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
                          New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
                          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Dallas
                          Dallas Cowboys
                          Dallas is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
                          Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
                          Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
                          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing New England

                          San Francisco 49ers
                          San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
                          San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
                          San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
                          San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
                          San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
                          San Francisco is 6-13-3 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Green Bay
                          San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
                          San Francisco is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing Green Bay
                          The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
                          San Francisco is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
                          San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
                          Green Bay Packers
                          Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
                          Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
                          Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
                          Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
                          Green Bay is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 24 games on the road
                          Green Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
                          Green Bay is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing San Francisco
                          Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
                          The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing San Francisco
                          Green Bay is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
                          Green Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco


                          Monday, November 25

                          Los Angeles Rams
                          LA Rams is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
                          LA Rams is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
                          LA Rams is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
                          LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
                          Baltimore Ravens
                          Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
                          Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
                          Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
                          Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
                          Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
                          Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing LA Rams
                          Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment

                          • #493
                            Hot & Not Report - Week 12
                            Matt Blunt

                            Week of November 18th

                            Last week's piece touched on a few different live scenarios that were out there in the NFL this past weekend, and for the most part the runs those specific spots were on didn't hold up quite as well. Bad teams coming off a win like Cleveland, Atlanta, and the NY Jets all got their first against the spread (ATS) victories the following week in the past few days, while the offenses that had had a decent time bouncing back after sub-10-point efforts finished the day 1-2 ATS.

                            Hopefully some of you were able to catch (and play) the friendly reminder on fading teams post-London, as Houston and Jacksonville both got run out of the building in their respective games, to push that situation to a perfect 0-8 ATS this season. And all eight of those losses after a London game come post-bye week as well. Maybe that suggests we all put too much stock into bye weeks as it is, and it will be interesting to see if it holds up for the Chargers and Chiefs in a couple of weeks after their MNF game in Mexico this evening.

                            This week I'm sticking with the NFL as there are two specific divisions that have generally done well either going against or playing on their teams in non-division games, a situation that you'll see most of them in this week.

                            So let's get right to it:

                            Who's Hot

                            NFC West teams are 19-10 ATS in non-division games overall – on a 11-5 ATS run since October 1st

                            In what is a loaded NFC conference at the top, it's the NFC West division that leads the way in terms of a depth argument in that conference. San Francisco and Seattle are neck-and-neck right now for the division title, while the defending champion Los Angeles Rams are trying to hold strong to stay in the Wildcard race. With Arizona improving as well, venturing into playing a NFC West opponent has not gone well for most that are outside of the division.

                            The Cardinals are actually tied with the Rams for the best non-division ATS record in the NFC West at 6-2 ATS, with San Francisco (4-2 ATS) and Seattle (3-4 ATS) coming in behind them. Given that the 49ers and Seahawks each have an ATS loss that's been by a point or less since the start of this great run for the division since October 1st, that number could be sitting much better then it already is.

                            Heading into Week 12, we've got the Arizona Cardinals off on their bye week, but the rest of this division is all up against non-conference foes. Seattle travels east to face an Eagles team that is trying their best to keep both avenues (division title and wildcard) to the playoffs open as long as possible, while San Francisco and the L.A. Rams both get the NFL prime time treatment at home, with the 49ers hosting the Packers on SNF, and the Rams hosting the Ravens on MNF. All three of these games have lines where the favorite is essentially laying just 3 points or less right now, so they are all expected to be close.

                            If that's the case, maybe we see this great run for NFC West teams in non-division games hit a bit of a road block. Yet, it will be interesting to see where the support lands on these contests as the week goes on, because one specifically ties into the next streak, and that is...

                            Who's Not

                            NFC East teams are 10-18 ATS in non-division games overall – on a 7-11 ATS run since October 1 – Not one of the four teams have a winning ATS record in non-division games in 2019

                            The NFC East is a division is nothing more then a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia, with the loser likely missing out on the playoffs entirely. The Giants and Redskins are two of the Top 5 worst teams in the league, so fading them as a good thing isn't too surprising, but the fact that this entire division struggles against the rest of the league does say something about how mediocre the level of football this division plays that they pass off as good.

                            Now to be fair, Philly is one of those two teams fighting for this division crown, and do own the best non-division record in the NFC East at 4-4 ATS. But that's as close to a winning record as any of these four teams get after Week 11, as the Cowboys are 2-4 ATS while Washington and the NY Giants are each 2-5 ATS outside of the division. The records of the latter two teams are likely to continue to get worse before they definitively get better, while the team that does better in their remaining non-division games between the Eagles and Cowboys is likely the one that rides that success to a division crown. But it's Week 12 brings some interesting games for all four of these teams, as they are all stepping outside of the division as well.

                            The Giants are on the road catching about a TD currently in Chicago and the Redskins are catching a FG at home against the Lions. Both of those teams are facing teams with QB concerns from a health standpoint right now, so it will be interesting to see what kind of movement they end up seeing.

                            Dallas finds themselves in New England to take on a great Patriots team, a game Eagles fans are hoping New England can win. Dallas finds themselves catching about six points early on, and given that it's under that key number of -7 and this being a spot where fading NFC East teams has been profitable, seeing if the Patriots ever touch -7 again will be interesting as well.

                            And finally there are the Eagles, at home and laying about two points, to a team that's already been mentioned in this piece; the Seattle Seahawks.

                            The 2019 history of non-division games for teams from the NFC West and NFC East suggest that backing Seattle against the number is the only way to look here. You are backing the Seahawks in a “hot” role, fading the Eagles in a “cold” role at the same time, and getting points with the better team. Very hard not to like Seattle this week, for many other reasons as well.

                            And while the other three games featuring NFC East teams will be intriguing from a reactionary standpoint in terms of where their point spreads line up, this Seahawks/Eagles game is one where you've got to be proactive if you are already leaning towards the Seattle side. This line is far more likely to sniff the 'pick'em' range then it will getting to Philly -3, so getting down action on Seattle sooner rather then later is probably the best course of action here.


                            *****************************


                            Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 12 odds: Now's not the time to bet the Niners
                            Jason Logan

                            Books are bracing for underdog money on the Packers Sunday night, so if you like the 49ers you may want to play it cool and see if you can get San Francisco under the key number of a field goal.

                            Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

                            Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

                            Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 12 board.

                            SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6, 46)

                            Being “America’s Team”, the Cowboys always attract action at the window from legions of Dallas backers blindly betting the Boys. And it would seem, even in a matchup with the defending Super Bowl champs, early money is siding with Dallas.

                            The Cowboys opened as big as +6.5 at New England in Week 12 and books have trimmed that down to +6 at most books. The juice on Patriots -6 is seeing a discount as low as -105 and there’s even a -5.5 on the board as of Monday afternoon.

                            New England hasn’t been overwhelmingly impressive this season and is coming off an ugly win over Philadelphia this past Sunday. Dallas also took a “fugly” victory over a Stafford-less Detroit squad but the offense is firing on all cylinders – something Tom Brady & Co. can’t say after scoring 20 and 17 points respectively in their last two games. If you like the Cowboys collect the points at the key number of six while it still stands.

                            SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3, 45.5)

                            According to bookmakers, they expect money on the underdog Packers in this Sunday Night Football showdown. San Francisco hasn’t looked great in its last three games: two near losses to Arizona and a OT defeat at the hands of Seattle. Granted, the 49ers were dealing with dual-threat dynamos, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, who amounted for 154 yards rushing on 19 total carries in those three games.

                            Green Bay gunslinger Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons in his arsenal but he’s not as spry as those two QBs. The Cheeseheads are coming off a bye in Week 11, but before that squeaked out a win against Carolina (was McCaffrey in?) and fell to the L.A. Chargers.

                            San Francisco should get some bodies back in Week 12, with kicker Robbie Gould coming around and TE George Kittle listed at day-to-day. If you’re giving the Niners the nod, wait it out and see how low you can grab them under the key of a field goal.

                            TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 45.5 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

                            This number has made a significant dive, from as high as 47 to 45.5 points. Now might be the time to strike if you like the Over. For one: this is a primetime game and the public loves to root for high-scoring football in those night games, so action on the Over is expected.

                            The Colts will lean on the arm of QB Jacob Brissett more with RB Marlon Mack out with a hand injury. Indianapolis runs the ball on 47 percent of snaps but may have to resort to the air more often in this AFC South matchup, lending value to the Over. Brissett did enjoy his best game of the season at home to the Texans in Week 7, passing for three touchdowns on 326 yards - a game that scored 53 total points and topped the 46.5 Over/Under.

                            Houston just got cracked for 41 points versus Baltimore and hasn’t been that stout a defense in 2019, allowing 30 or more points four times this season. The Texans offense – namely Deshaun Watson – will be eager to shake a stinky 7-point showing in Week 11, in which the QB passed for only 169 yards and an interception. Beat the public to the window and bet this Over now.

                            TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 39 PITTSBURGH STEEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

                            This total is already on the way down, moving from 39.5 to 39, and I project it going even lower between now and kickoff Sunday. The Steelers mustered only seven points in a short week versus Cleveland last Thursday, which is fresh in everyone’s mind. But before that ugly result, Pittsburgh’s offense was finding its footing, averaging 24 points between Weeks 4 and 10 with second-stringer Mason Rudolph at the wheel.

                            The Bengals surrendered 27 points in a Week 4 loss at Pittsburgh, managing a lonely field goal in rebuttal. Cincinnati hasn’t been much better ever since, averaging only 15 points per outing in the six games since that dismal Monday night display.

                            That said, with a total this low, Over bettors may not need much more from Cincy to slide in above the number. The Bengals are notably better on offense at home - 17.5 points per home game versus 12.5 points per away game – and are 6-2-1 Over/Under in their previous nine games inside Paul Brown Stadium. If you like the Over, set your Covers Live App alert and see if you can get something in the 38-point range later in the week.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment

                            • #494
                              Best spot bets for the NFL Week 12 odds: Browns-Steelers brawl bleeds over into schedule
                              Jason Logan

                              Both the Browns and Steelers could be falling into spot bets in NFL Week 12 coming off a crazy finish to Cleveland's win last Thursday night.

                              The schedule can make or break an NFL team at this point in the season. And it can do the same for your wagers. Situational handicapping should always be folded into – or at least considered when sizing up the NFL odds each week.

                              Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the Week 12 slate and picks out his favorite “Letdown”, “Lookahead”, and “Schedule” spots and how those situations could shake down at the sportsbook.

                              LETDOWN SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-11, 44)

                              The Browns had one hell of a Week 10, knocking off rival Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football and picking up their second straight win. In the midst of all that, standout DE Myles Garrett got into it with Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and tried knocking his head off with his own helmet.

                              It made for a very messy week in Ohio – a week in which Cleveland should have enjoyed a mini bye and some extra time to tinker before Week 12. However, the added stress and media attention marred what could have been a turning point for the Browns’ 2019 season.

                              The Week 12 opponent – Miami – is a tough team to get up for in the first place, and this letdown angle comes with a sprinkle of lookahead as well. Next up for the Browns: a trip to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in Week 13. Cleveland is currently laying 11 points versus the Dolphins at home this Sunday.

                              LOOKAHEAD SPOT: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+6.5, 39)

                              Hey, what do you know? The other side of that Thursday’s night dramafest falls into one of our weekly spot bet slots. Pittsburgh can’t wait to get another crack at Cleveland after: 1. Losing to the Browns 21 -7 2. The Garrett incident which equalled a suspension for C Maurkice Pouncey and a fine for Rudolph.

                              But before the Steelers can exact revenge, they have another AFC North foe from Ohio standing in the way. The winless Bengals are a main ingredient for a lookahead spot, having cracked the 20-point plateau just twice all season. The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati, it rolled to a 27-3 victory on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

                              Oddsmakers are giving the host Bengals 6.5 points and that spread has already flirted with a touchdown at some markets, instantly taking money on Cincinnati and sliding the line back under the key number. According to our Covers Consensus, 70 percent of the early ticket count is on Pittsburgh so expect a move to Steelers -7 before kickoff.

                              SCHEDULE SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT NEW YORK JETS (+3, 45.5)

                              People love to play against West Coast teams coming east for an early 1 p.m. ET start, which is 10 a.m. PT back home. While blindly betting against those qualifying teams is a bad decision, the Raiders have played into this notion in recent years.

                              Heading into a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in East Rutherford, Oakland is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. This season, the Silver and Black have done a few of these early wakeups, losing SU and ATS at Minnesota in Week 3, winning and covering in Indianapolis in Week 4, winning and covering versus Chicago in London in Week 5, and losing and coming up short ATS at Green Bay in Week 7.

                              The Raiders played a road-heavy stretch of schedule during that span but have enjoyed three straight home games before this matchup with the Jets. Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 away games overall – regardless of start time – and the home team has been the hot bet when these teams clash, with hosts going 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                              Comment

                              • #495
                                NFL's Top ATS Teams:

                                t1. Patriots 7-3 ATS
                                t1. Packers 7-3 ATS
                                t1. Saints 7-3 ATS
                                t1. Rams 7-3 ATS
                                t1. Cardinals 7-3-1 ATS
                                6. Bills 5-3-1 ATS
                                t7. Cowboys 6-4 ATS
                                t7. Raiders 6-4 ATS
                                t7. Steelers 6-4 ATS
                                t7. Broncos 6-4 ATS


                                NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

                                32. Buccaneers 2-8 ATS
                                t29. Redskins 3-7 ATS
                                t29. Giants 3-7 ATS
                                t29. Bears 3-7 ATS
                                t27. Browns 3-6-1 ATS
                                t27. Chargers 3-6-2 ATS
                                t22. Bengals, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Eagles 4-6 ATS


                                *****************************


                                Tech Trends - Week 12
                                Bruce Marshall

                                Thursday, Nov. 21

                                INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
                                Indy 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY, but won alst week, and Colts are 7-3 vs. line last ten on road. Also won and covered last 3 vs. Texans. Houston just 1-4 vs. spread last five at NRG Stadium.
                                Tech Edge: Colts, based on team and recent series trends.



                                Sunday, Nov. 24

                                MIAMI at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                Dolphins have covered 5 of last 6 TY ith Fitzpatrick at QB including three straight on road. Browns still just 3-6-1 vs. spread this season after Steelers win and 1-4-1 last six vs. line.
                                Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.


                                DENVER at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                Broncos have covered 5 of last 6 TY, Bills just 3-3 as chalk. Denver on 15-4 “under” run, Buffalo “under” 9-4 last 13, 16-8 since early 2018.
                                Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Broncos, based on “totals” and team trends.


                                PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                Steel still 6-2 last 8 vs. line after Browns loss. Steel “under” 6-2 last 8 TY and “under” 12-5 last 17 since late 2018. Cincy 0-4 vs. line at home TY, 1-9 last 10 vs. spread at Paul Brown. Bengals “under” 9-4-2 last 14 since late 2018. Steel 6-2 vs. spread last 8 in series and has covered 4 of last 5 at Cincy.
                                Tech Edge: Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


                                N.Y. GIANTS at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                G-Men 1-5 vs. spread last six TY, though have covered 2 of last 3 as road dog, and 8-3 in role since LY. NY “over” 12-6 last 18 since mid 2018. Bears 3-8 last 10 vs. spread, “under” 14-3 last 17 since mid 2018.
                                Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.


                                OAKLAND at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                Raiders have covered 5 of their last 7 in 2019, also “over” 6-4 TY. Interestingly only three games as chalk since LY (2-1 in role). Jets “over” last 4 TY.
                                Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Raiders, based on “totals” and team trends.


                                CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                Panthers 5-3 vs. line last eight TY (though 0-2 L2), 2-2 as road dog TY after 0-3 mark in role LY. Saints have won and covered seven of last eight this season. Note last five meetings “over” at Superdome.
                                Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


                                TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                Bucs no covers last six TY, also “over” 9-2 since late 2018. Falcs have covered last three TY after five Ls in a row prior. Home team has covered last four meetings. “Overs” 5-1 last six in series.
                                Tech Edge: “Over” and Falcons, based on “totals” and series trends.


                                DETROIT at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                Lions no covers last 5 TY, though Skins only 2-8 vs. line since late 2018. Skins “under” 6-1 last seven TY.
                                Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


                                SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
                                Seahawks 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line away TY. Hawks 10-1-1 last 12 as dog. Eagles 4-10-1 last 15 reg season vs. line at Linc.
                                Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


                                JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
                                Jags 3-2 vs. line as visitor TY, though have lost and failed to cover last four at Nashville. Home team has now covered last five Titans games TY (Tenn 3-0 last 3 at home). Titans “over” last 4 TY, Jags “over” last 4 as visitor.
                                Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


                                DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
                                Dallas 7-6 vs. spread away in reg season since LY, also “over” 8-3 last 11 reg season. Belichick on 16-4 spread run at Gillette Stadium, and 15-4 “under” run in reg season.
                                Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “under,” based on team and Belichick “totals” trends.


                                GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
                                Pack 7-3 vs. line TY, 3-1 vs. spread away. Pack 2-0 as dog TY. Niners only 3-4-1 vs. spread last eight TY.
                                Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on team trends.



                                Monday, Nov. 25

                                BALTIMORE at L.A. RAMS - (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
                                Ravens 4-1 SU and vs. line away TY, 7-1 vs. spread last eight away. Also “over” 4-1 away. Rams 3-6 vs. spread last 9 at Coliseum.
                                Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                                Comment

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