Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 10-23-2019, 01:42 PM

Jags sign former Super Bowl MVP Smith
October 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) The Jacksonville Jaguars have signed former Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith to help fill holes at linebacker.

Smith played 12 games for San Francisco last season. He's best known for his MVP performance in the 2014 Super Bowl, when he had 10 tackles and returned an interception 69 yards for a touchdown in Seattle's 43-8 win over Denver.

The Jaguars (3-4) also re-signed linebacker Donald Payne on Tuesday. To make room for Smith and Payne, Jacksonville placed tight end Geoff Swaim (concussion/ankle) and linebacker D.J. Alexander (foot) on injured reserve.

The Jags also could be without linebackers Najee Goode (turf toe) and Leon Jacobs (hamstring) on Sunday against the New York Jets (1-5). Rookie linebacker Quincy Williams also is dealing with a hamstring injury.

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Giants sign LB Bucannon, waive Skipper
October 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) The New York Giants have signed veteran linebacker Deone Bucannon and waived linebacker Tuzar Skipper.

The Giants (2-5) also signed linebacker Devante Downs from the practice squad and waived tight end Garrett Dickerson.

Bucannon has played in 75 regular-season games, including five this season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who released him on Oct. 8. The 27th pick overall in the 2014 draft by Arizona, he has started 56 games and had 395 tackles, seven sacks; and two interceptions, including one he returned 29 yards for a touchdown.

He should know the defense having played for defensive coordinator James Bettcher with the Cardinals.

Skipper played six games after being claimed off waivers from Pittsburgh on Sept. 9. He assisted on two tackles, including a half-sack, and one special teams tackle.

Downs has been on the practice squad since Oct. 1. He played in two games with Minnesota earlier this season before being waived.

Dickerson joined the Giants as a rookie free agent in 2018 and played in four games. He played in three games this season without having a reception.

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Seahawks acquire Diggs from Lions
October 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

RENTON, Wash. (AP) The Seattle Seahawks addressed depth concerns in the defensive backfield by acquiring Quandre Diggs from the Detroit Lions on Tuesday in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick.

Seattle has major depth worries at safety after Bradley McDougald and Lano Hill missed Sunday's loss to Baltimore with injuries. Hill is expected to be out a few weeks with an elbow injury, while Seattle is hoping McDougald will return soon after being sidelined by back spasms.

Diggs will add some needed versatility. He can play free safety and nickel and could be an option after free safety Tedric Thompson has struggled in coverage at times this season. Seattle coach Pete Carroll has been critical of some big plays given up by Thompson, including a 50-yard pass in the loss to the Ravens.

''Well, we made a big mistake early. Gave them a freebie down the field. That's just distasteful,'' Carroll said. ''I hate that we gave them that because there's no way that should've happened.''

Seattle also received a seventh-round pick in 2021 as part of the trade.

Diggs started 40 games in four-plus seasons with the Lions. He was a sixth-round pick by Detroit in 2015 and developed into a capable starter. He has started the past 26 games he played in for the Lions and had three interceptions in both 2017 and 2018.

Also Tuesday, the Lions announced they were putting second-year running back Kerryon Johnson on injured reserve. Johnson left Sunday's loss to Minnesota with a knee injury.

Johnson was impressive as a rookie last year, bringing a much-needed boost to Detroit's running game, but he went on injured reserve with knee problems then as well.

Johnson had 308 yards rushing and two TDs in the first seven games of the season.

''You know how much we value Kerryon and what a great part of our offense and our team he is, and he is still here and he's still part of all of that, certainly,'' Lions coach Matt Patricia said. ''On the field, we'll push forward as normal and we think that we get good production with Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic, and we think those guys are ready to step into roles.''

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2019, 01:55 AM

TNF - Redskins at Vikings
October 23, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK
The Vikings (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) remain in second place in the NFC North behind the 6-1 Packers, but Minnesota is rolling of late by winning three consecutive games. The offense has woken up since Minnesota was limited to six points in a Week 4 loss at Chicago by scoring 28, 38, and 42 points the past three weeks. The Vikings followed up an 18-point home blowout of the Eagles by rallying past the Lions, 42-30 this past Sunday to cash as 2 ½-point road favorites.

This was a huge victory for Minnesota following an 0-2 start inside the division, as the Vikings have now played all three NFC North rivals on the road. The Vikings trailed twice by seven points in the opening half at Ford Field before grabbing a 21-14 advantage on an eight-yard touchdown run by Dalvin Cook, marking the six time in seven games that the former Florida State standout has reached the end zone.

Detroit evened the game before the half at 21-21, but the Vikings outscored the Lions in the second half, 21-9, including Cook’s second touchdown of the game and a pair of scoring tosses from Kirk Cousins. The Vikings’ quarterback finished with 337 yards and four touchdowns, as Cousins has thrown 10 touchdown passes during this three-game winning streak. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has racked up over 300 yards the last two weeks, but was held of out the end zone after scoring three touchdowns against Philadelphia.

The Redskins (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) covered for the first time since a Week 1 loss at Philadelphia in last Sunday’s 9-0 home defeat to the undefeated 49ers. Washington cashed as 10-point favorites in a rainstorm at FedEx Field as the Redskins held the Niners out of the end zone. However, San Francisco managed three field goals and held Washington’s anemic offense to 154 yards and 10 first downs.

The Redskins’ offense has been limited to seven points or less three times in the past four games, with the lone exception coming in a 17-16 triumph over the winless Dolphins. The only positive for Washington the last two weeks is the defense allowing 25 points and two touchdowns, while veteran running back Adrian Peterson is coming off a 118-yard effort at Miami and 81 yards against a solid San Francisco defense.

Following last Sunday’s loss, the Redskins fell to 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in the past eight games at FedEx Field since edging the Cowboys in Week 7 of 2018. In the last 16 games overall, Washington owns a 3-13 record and it has scored 17, 16, and 16 points those victories.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS
The Vikings have stomped all three opponents that have invaded U.S. Bank Stadium this season with the margin of victory being 16, 20, and 18 points. Minnesota closed as 3 ½-point favorites against Atlanta in a 28-12 opening week rout, while laying 3 ½ against Philadelphia in a 38-20 Week 8 blowout. The largest number the Vikings have laid at home is 8 ½ in a Week 3 shellacking of the Raiders, 34-14, to improve to 6-2 in the past eight games in Minneapolis.

The Redskins put up 17 points in the first 20 minutes of the season opener against the Eagles. Washington squandered a 17-0 lead in a 32-27 defeat at Philadelphia, but grabbed the cover as 10-point underdogs thanks to a late touchdown with six seconds remaining. Since that 17-0 advantage, the Redskins have scored 20 points in the past 10 ½ quarters away from FedEx Field, including 'unders' against the Giants and Dolphins.

SERIES HISTORY
These teams didn’t meet in 2018, but hooked up seven of eight years from 2010-17. The Vikings outlasted the Redskins, 38-30 at FedEx Field back in 2017, as Cousins and Case Keenum started that game at quarterback – for the other team. Cousins threw for 327 yards for Washington, while Keenum tossed four touchdowns and racked up 304 yards in the win for Minnesota. Wide receiver Adam Thielen (who is out Thursday with a hamstring injury) put up 166 yards for the Vikings, marking his second-highest receiving yardage output in his career.

The last six meetings between these NFC squads have eclipsed the 'over', as the winning team has scored at least 29 points five times during this span. Washington is making its first trip to Minnesota since 2014, while the 16-point line on Thursday is the highest in this series since 1998 when the Vikings blew out the Redskins, 41-7 as 13 ½-point chalk on the way to an NFC Championship appearance.

TOTAL TALK
The total on this game opened at 40 ½ and has been pushed up to 42 as of Wednesday evening. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this week’s number and his lean.

He said, “If you’re looking at current form, this particular matchup could have you scratching your head. After watching the ‘over’ cash in each of the first three weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four games for the Redskins and the Washington offense has only scored 27 points during this span, which includes last week’s 9-0 shutout loss at home to San Francisco.

Bettors riding Washington’s ‘under’ streak and Minnesota’s 2-1 ‘over’ run may be inclined to play team total wagers for this contest. Washington is hovering around 12 ½ points while Minnesota is listed at 28 ½.

David added, “Minnesota is a clear-cut bully and its 11-1 record in its last 12 games as a favorite is very impressive, plus they’ve posted a 9-1-1 ATS record during this span. The defense is a beast at home and the unit is only allowing 17.6 PPG this season, 15.6 PPG at home and they actually faced decent quarterbacks in Matt Ryan, Derek Carr and Carson Wentz. The club faces a familiar foe this week in Keenum and while some folks may buy that narrative, I don’t see it happening here. With back-to-back road games against the Chiefs and Cowboys on deck, I expect a clinical victory for Minnesota with the clock running early and often. My lean would be to the game ‘under’ and also the Redskins team total ‘under’ as well.”

For those keeping track, the ‘under’ has gone 4-3 on Thursday Night Football this season, which includes last week’s 30-6 outcome between Kansas City and Denver that went to the low side.

Washington hasn’t played in the midweek game since the 2017 season and the total went 1-1 in their games while the Redskins only managed to score 20 and 17 points. Minnesota played in one Thursday Night game in 2018 and the Vikings dropped a 38-31 decision at Los Angeles versus the Rams.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
The Vikings continue to own a strong home-field advantage at U.S. Bank Stadium, as NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with their success under head coach Mike Zimmer, “His home record since taking over the Vikings is amazing at 32-13 SU and 32-12-1 ATS including going 21-7 S/U and 20-7-1 ATS since the team moved to U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016. The Vikings have only once in that time been this big of a home favorite, and that was last September’s shocking 27-6 loss to Buffalo playing as a 16.5-point favorite.”

From an offensive standpoint, these teams are on completely different ends of the spectrum, “Washington has been one of the league’s least productive offenses at 267 yards per game while 28th in the league in yards per play. Minnesota is 4th in the NFL in yards per rush and surprisingly 2nd in yards per pass attempt. Cousins passed Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Seattle’s Russell Wilson and is currently the top-rated passer in the NFL at this juncture while Keenum has been adequate in that measure, ranking 16th, surprisingly in-between New England’s Tom Brady and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson,” Nelson notes.

Nelson also points out the strong record of Thursday night home favorites of 10 points or more are 19-0 SU and 15-4 ATS since 2005, which includes a 5-1 SU/ATS ledger the last five seasons. The Patriots pulled away from the Giants in Week 6 with a 35-14 drubbing as 17-point chalk, ending a five-week run of Thursday night underdogs winning and covering.

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Case Keenum (WSH)
Over 20 ½ (-110)
Under 20 ½ (-110)

Total TD Passes + Interceptions – Case Keenum (WSH)
Over 2 (-110)
Under 2 (-110)

Will the Redskins ever have the lead?
Yes +200
No -250

Total Gross Passing Yards – Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Over 259 ½ (-110)
Under 259 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Over 1 ½ (-200)
Under 1 ½ (+170)

Total Rushing Yards – Dalvin Cook (MIN)
Over 102 ½ (-110)
Under 102 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Stefon Diggs (MIN)
Over 76 ½ (-110)
Under 76 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT
In spite of Thielen sitting out this game for the Vikings, Minnesota has moved up from 15 ½-point favorites on Monday at the Westgate Superbook to 16-point chalk. The total sits at 42, which is the second-lowest total for Thursday night game this season behind the 38-spot in Week 3 between the Jaguars and Titans.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2019, 01:58 AM

As Vikings prep for Skins, Cousins grateful
October 23, 2019
By The Associated Press

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) The coaches and players who have departed the Washington Redskins have not always been complimentary of their time with a franchise that has experienced its share of dysfunction over the past two decades.

Kirk Cousins conceivably could have joined that chorus of critics, a cacophony amplified just last week by Kyle Shanahan. After all, the team's disinterest in giving him a longer-term, market-rate contract left Cousins as the rare starting quarterback playing on a one-year deal for two seasons in a row before becoming a free agent and signing with the Minnesota Vikings in 2018.

That's not his style, though, nor is it his story.

''Honestly for me, when I think of my time in Washington, I just think of the word gratitude. I'm so grateful that I was drafted by them,'' Cousins said.

The fourth-round selection in 2012 out of Michigan State finally became a full-timer in his fourth year, after second overall pick Robert Griffin III flamed out.

''They picked me when nobody else did. I was sitting around waiting for a phone call for 2+ days,'' Cousins said. ''I was given an opportunity to start when there weren't many people outside of that building who thought I should.''

Cousins will face his former team for the first time on Thursday night, when the surging Vikings (5-2) host the reeling Redskins (1-6). As fate would have it, the player Cousins replaced, Case Keenum, now has his old job.

After a one-year stop in Denver, Keenum was traded to Washington. He will visit U.S. Bank Stadium for the first time since the ''Minneapolis Miracle'' pass he completed to Stefon Diggs for the winning touchdown on the final play of Minnesota's divisional round game against New Orleans after the 2017 season that was a career best for the longtime backup.

''There's not enough time to reminisce,'' Keenum said. ''It's a special time, a special play, a special group of guys, something I'll remember forever, but not necessarily this week.''

Like his successor in purple, naturally, the significance of playing against his old team was mostly an afterthought for Keenum. Even if there were actually some lingering bitterness fueling extra motivation, well, neither of them would acknowledge it.

''I've played long enough to where I feel like if I keep going like I'm going I might play against my old team every week,'' Keenum said. ''It's adding up now, so it's just a normal game for me.''

QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL

When the Redskins let Cousins leave as a free agent after trading for Alex Smith and signing him to a contract extension, they thought they'd stabilized the quarterback position. Instead, because of Smith's broken leg and assorted other chaos, they have played six and started five different quarterbacks over the 23 games they've played since Cousins left.

Smith, longtime backup Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Josh Johnson and Keenum have all started at least one game. Rookie Dwayne Haskins, their first-round draft pick this year, appeared in relief. Cousins started all 48 regular-season games from 2015-2017. Keenum has been interim coach Bill Callahan's choice since he stepped in more than two weeks ago for the fired Jay Gruden, who preferred McCoy.

''I made it known back then when Kirk was here: We both talked about playing together for years. But things happen,'' running back Chris Thompson said.

ALL DAY IS STILL ALL RIGHT

The reunion theme on Thursday is not just for quarterbacks. Redskins running back Adrian Peterson has already played at Minnesota since his 10-season run with the Vikings ended, but the return of the franchise's all-time leading rusher will still be a big part of the show.

Particularly since Callahan has steered the offense toward a throwback strategy, with Peterson carrying the ball 43 times for 199 yards over the past two games. With 60 rushing yards, Peterson would pass Jerome Bettis and LaDainian Tomlinson to land in sixth place on the NFL's all-time list.

An ankle injury has him listed as questionable, but there's little doubt that he'll try to play.

''I was there for a decade and still to this day, I have fans that follow me,'' Peterson said. ''I have fans that come to Redskins games that are die-hard Vikings fans because they're Adrian Peterson fans. The love is always going to be there.''

THIELEN'S HURT

Cousins didn't miss a beat last week after two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Adam Thielen left the game in Detroit because of a hamstring injury that occurred during his first-quarter touchdown catch.

Whether going deep to Diggs, toward the sideline to rookie wide receiver Olabisi Johnson, or underneath to tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr., Cousins had plenty of options that will have to remain viable again this week while Thielen sits out for the first time in his NFL career. He has played in 90 consecutive games, including three in the playoffs.

THIRD TO NONE

One sure sign of a struggling team is a lack of success on third down, and the Redskins are checking that box on both sides of the ball. The defense has allowed opponents to convert 49.5% of their opportunities, the third-worst rate in the league. On offense, they're second to last at 24.7%, with penalties a significant problem. Washington has been flagged 71 times for 434 yards, nullifying 157 yards that otherwise would have been gained.

''Having those third downs that are third-and-2, third-and-3, third-and-4, and not those third-and-10 third downs, make a difference a lot,'' right tackle Morgan Moses said. ''We've just got to continue doing what we do: handing the ball off, running the ball, putting ourselves in the best position possible.''

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2019, 01:10 PM

TNF - Redskins at Vikings
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Vikings (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) remain in second place in the NFC North behind the 6-1 Packers, but Minnesota is rolling of late by winning three consecutive games. The offense has woken up since Minnesota was limited to six points in a Week 4 loss at Chicago by scoring 28, 38, and 42 points the past three weeks. The Vikings followed up an 18-point home blowout of the Eagles by rallying past the Lions, 42-30 this past Sunday to cash as 2 ½-point road favorites.

This was a huge victory for Minnesota following an 0-2 start inside the division, as the Vikings have now played all three NFC North rivals on the road. The Vikings trailed twice by seven points in the opening half at Ford Field before grabbing a 21-14 advantage on an eight-yard touchdown run by Dalvin Cook, marking the six time in seven games that the former Florida State standout has reached the end zone.

Detroit evened the game before the half at 21-21, but the Vikings outscored the Lions in the second half, 21-9, including Cook’s second touchdown of the game and a pair of scoring tosses from Kirk Cousins. The Vikings’ quarterback finished with 337 yards and four touchdowns, as Cousins has thrown 10 touchdown passes during this three-game winning streak. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has racked up over 300 yards the last two weeks, but was held of out the end zone after scoring three touchdowns against Philadelphia.

The Redskins (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) covered for the first time since a Week 1 loss at Philadelphia in last Sunday’s 9-0 home defeat to the undefeated 49ers. Washington cashed as 10-point favorites in a rainstorm at FedEx Field as the Redskins held the Niners out of the end zone. However, San Francisco managed three field goals and held Washington’s anemic offense to 154 yards and 10 first downs.

The Redskins’ offense has been limited to seven points or less three times in the past four games, with the lone exception coming in a 17-16 triumph over the winless Dolphins. The only positive for Washington the last two weeks is the defense allowing 25 points and two touchdowns, while veteran running back Adrian Peterson is coming off a 118-yard effort at Miami and 81 yards against a solid San Francisco defense.

Following last Sunday’s loss, the Redskins fell to 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in the past eight games at FedEx Field since edging the Cowboys in Week 7 of 2018. In the last 16 games overall, Washington owns a 3-13 record and it has scored 17, 16, and 16 points those victories.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Vikings have stomped all three opponents that have invaded U.S. Bank Stadium this season with the margin of victory being 16, 20, and 18 points. Minnesota closed as 3 ½-point favorites against Atlanta in a 28-12 opening week rout, while laying 3 ½ against Philadelphia in a 38-20 Week 8 blowout. The largest number the Vikings have laid at home is 8 ½ in a Week 3 shellacking of the Raiders, 34-14, to improve to 6-2 in the past eight games in Minneapolis.

The Redskins put up 17 points in the first 20 minutes of the season opener against the Eagles. Washington squandered a 17-0 lead in a 32-27 defeat at Philadelphia, but grabbed the cover as 10-point underdogs thanks to a late touchdown with six seconds remaining. Since that 17-0 advantage, the Redskins have scored 20 points in the past 10 ½ quarters away from FedEx Field, including 'unders' against the Giants and Dolphins.

SERIES HISTORY

These teams didn’t meet in 2018, but hooked up seven of eight years from 2010-17. The Vikings outlasted the Redskins, 38-30 at FedEx Field back in 2017, as Cousins and Case Keenum started that game at quarterback – for the other team. Cousins threw for 327 yards for Washington, while Keenum tossed four touchdowns and racked up 304 yards in the win for Minnesota. Wide receiver Adam Thielen (who is out Thursday with a hamstring injury) put up 166 yards for the Vikings, marking his second-highest receiving yardage output in his career.

The last six meetings between these NFC squads have eclipsed the 'over', as the winning team has scored at least 29 points five times during this span. Washington is making its first trip to Minnesota since 2014, while the 16-point line on Thursday is the highest in this series since 1998 when the Vikings blew out the Redskins, 41-7 as 13 ½-point chalk on the way to an NFC Championship appearance.

TOTAL TALK

The total on this game opened at 40 ½ and has been pushed up to 42 as of Wednesday evening. Chris David offered up his thoughts on this week’s number and his lean.

He said, “If you’re looking at current form, this particular matchup could have you scratching your head. After watching the ‘over’ cash in each of the first three weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four games for the Redskins and the Washington offense has only scored 27 points during this span, which includes last week’s 9-0 shutout loss at home to San Francisco.

Bettors riding Washington’s ‘under’ streak and Minnesota’s 2-1 ‘over’ run may be inclined to play team total wagers for this contest. Washington is hovering around 12 ½ points while Minnesota is listed at 28 ½.

David added, “Minnesota is a clear-cut bully and its 11-1 record in its last 12 games as a favorite is very impressive, plus they’ve posted a 9-1-1 ATS record during this span. The defense is a beast at home and the unit is only allowing 17.6 PPG this season, 15.6 PPG at home and they actually faced decent quarterbacks in Matt Ryan, Derek Carr and Carson Wentz. The club faces a familiar foe this week in Keenum and while some folks may buy that narrative, I don’t see it happening here. With back-to-back road games against the Chiefs and Cowboys on deck, I expect a clinical victory for Minnesota with the clock running early and often. My lean would be to the game ‘under’ and also the Redskins team total ‘under’ as well.”

For those keeping track, the ‘under’ has gone 4-3 on Thursday Night Football this season, which includes last week’s 30-6 outcome between Kansas City and Denver that went to the low side.

Washington hasn’t played in the midweek game since the 2017 season and the total went 1-1 in their games while the Redskins only managed to score 20 and 17 points. Minnesota played in one Thursday Night game in 2018 and the Vikings dropped a 38-31 decision at Los Angeles versus the Rams.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

The Vikings continue to own a strong home-field advantage at U.S. Bank Stadium, as NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with their success under head coach Mike Zimmer, “His home record since taking over the Vikings is amazing at 32-13 SU and 32-12-1 ATS including going 21-7 S/U and 20-7-1 ATS since the team moved to U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016. The Vikings have only once in that time been this big of a home favorite, and that was last September’s shocking 27-6 loss to Buffalo playing as a 16.5-point favorite.”

From an offensive standpoint, these teams are on completely different ends of the spectrum, “Washington has been one of the league’s least productive offenses at 267 yards per game while 28th in the league in yards per play. Minnesota is 4th in the NFL in yards per rush and surprisingly 2nd in yards per pass attempt. Cousins passed Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Seattle’s Russell Wilson and is currently the top-rated passer in the NFL at this juncture while Keenum has been adequate in that measure, ranking 16th, surprisingly in-between New England’s Tom Brady and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson,” Nelson notes.

Nelson also points out the strong record of Thursday night home favorites of 10 points or more are 19-0 SU and 15-4 ATS since 2005, which includes a 5-1 SU/ATS ledger the last five seasons. The Patriots pulled away from the Giants in Week 6 with a 35-14 drubbing as 17-point chalk, ending a five-week run of Thursday night underdogs winning and covering.

LINE MOVEMENT

In spite of Thielen sitting out this game for the Vikings, Minnesota has moved up from 15 ½-point favorites on Monday at the Westgate Superbook to 16-point chalk. The total sits at 42, which is the second-lowest total for Thursday night game this season behind the 38-spot in Week 3 between the Jaguars and Titans.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2019, 01:11 PM

SNF - Packers at Chiefs
Matt Blunt

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It turns out that maybe I wasn't the only one who questioned the authenticity of Carson Wentz being a legitimate #1 QB in this league last week, as after that brutal performance by the Eagles – from top to bottom – there was much more chatter and criticism directed Wentz's way.

What made me laugh though was HC Doug Pederson's post-game press conference comments about “the Eagles all needing to look in the mirror” to essentially get things fixed. That comment fits oh so well with my metaphor of Wentz being the “Dorian Gray” of the NFL, and being so vain that it's simply about 'looking' the part at all times with this team. We will see if the Eagles are able to turn things around or if the wheels are about to completely fall off of their 2019 season, and early action this week for their game in Buffalo has already come the Bills way.

But this piece is all about SNF games and this week we've got a non-conference showdown that lost much of it's bite with the QB Patrick Mahomes injury a week ago. I'm sure SNF producers were salivating at the potential of this matchup when the schedule came out, but it's only Aaron Rodgers coming to the party now and much of that excitement has probably waned. That doesn't mean this can't be a great game between two potential Super Bowl candidates, as Matt Moore isn't thrust into duty in a relatively unprepared manner this week, and Packers fans are hoping Aaron Rodgers and company continue to do their thing.

So let's get right into the game, and I assure you there won't be any literature metaphors bleeding into the analysis this week.

Total Talk

The total is actually the better betting option of the two (side or total) for this game in my view and it's where the bulk of my focus will be.

Yes, everyone knows that SNF games are still perfect to the 'under' this year after Philly and Dallas couldn't climb over their number in a ho-hum 2nd half after putting up 34 points in the first 30 minutes. That makes it a perfect 0-8 O/U on the season for Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth and the SNF crew, a run that's rather absurd and phenomenal all at the same time.

It's that run that will get talked up plenty this week as we've got a backup QB in Moore going, and with the bigger chunk of that perception being more about Mahomes being gone, I'm sure you will hear plenty of support for going low on the total this week. After all, the 'over' has yet to cash on SNF, and backup QB's are backup QB's for a reason right. A number that was sitting as high as 49.5 at some places earlier in the week is already sitting at 47.5 at the time of this writing, and I'm sure we could see it trend even lower.

Now one thing I do believe supports the low side here is the theory that going low on a total with a team that scored 40+ points the week prior (Green Bay) is something to consider. But outside of that, and the completely random SNF 'under' record, that's about it. If you want to follow the herd all across the grid looking to go 'under' this total, then by all means do so. But give me a chance to at least provide some counter points.

To start, non-conference games like this are ones where I believe you generally want to lean 'over' in terms of a blind/initial reaction because there just isn't the hatred or ingrained knowledge of what opponents run as there is in conference/division games. The last three weeks alone we've seen AFC/NFC games post a 8-6 O/U record blind as it is.

Taking it a step further, non-conference games the past four weeks have averaged 49.2 points per game when you eliminate those contests that featured both sides having losing records (as of today). That eliminates the “thriller” between Washington and Miami for one – a game that finished with 33 points, as well as a 37-point effort by the Jets/Eagles, and a 34-point effort from Tennessee and Atlanta.

That's quite the number in regards to where this week's total currently sits at 47.5, and it includes games like the 19 total points New Orleans and Jacksonville had in Week 6, as well as the 34-point effort from the Cleveland/San Francisco MNF game a few weeks back.

Furthermore, when you narrow things down to just the past three weeks and only include AFC/NFC games between teams that are currently .500 or better in the standings, you get a 2-1 O/U record with an average point total of 52.33 points. Obviously that's not the biggest sample size, but this Green Bay team accounted for most of that production and considering they are involved in this game, it is worth consideration.

Moreover, If you were to look at all the AFC/NFC games the past four weeks that featured a team that currently has 5 or more wins like both the Packers and Chiefs do, you'd get an average point total of 47.25 points – right on this number right.

But eliminate that Saints/Jags game with 19 points featuring Teddy Checkdown – I mean Bridgewater – and all of a sudden that number bumps up to 51.28 points per game over the past four weeks; going 4-3 O/U in the process. The past two weeks alone – again omitting that Saints/Jags game – is 3-1 O/U with an average of 55.25 points scored. Oh, and the two games that had either the Chiefs or Packers involved finished with at least 64 points.

Finally, you can zero in on the two respective teams involved in this game and see plenty of reasons – even with Matt Moore under center – that can lead to points being put up.

Kansas City's defense is still among the bottom four teams in the entire NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (148.9) with just Cleveland and the winless Dolphins and Bengals being worse. They give up five yards per rush as a part of that stat line, and Green Bay may not be the first team you think of when thinking of running teams, but the Packers can use their passing attack, or just the threat of their passing attack, to open up plenty of running lanes in general and have huge days on the ground.

For KC to give up the yardage they do and only allow 21.4 points per game is about as smoke and mirrors as it gets, and considering four of the five non-division opponents the Chiefs have faced this year has put up at least 26 points on the scoreboard, you've got to like Aaron Rodgers chances of having another big offensive day.

On the flip side of things, Moore will have a gameplan that's catered to what he does well with a full 10 days to get ready for this contest, and it's not like he's incapable of finding success at this levels with all the playmakers he's got around him. He had no problem hitting WR Tyreek Hill in stride for a long TD last Thursday, and while it was only a one-off, it does show you what the kind of potential is there.

Green Bay's defense ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in rushing yards allowed as well (128.9 per game), and at 381 yards allowed per game overall, they are the worst NFL team in that category that currently has a winning record – KC isn't much better with 377.4 yards allowed per game. So there is plenty of smoke and mirrors on Green Bay's defense as well, as they've allowed 22 or more points in four straight games themselves, and that run would be 24 or more points allowed in all four games had the Lions not settled for so many FG's and been burned by suspect calls in their MNF affair.

Had Mahomes been available for this game, this total would have been in the upper 50's at a bare minimum, and while he is the reigning MVP of the league and is a dynamic playmaker, this is far too much of an adjustment for a backup QB that has plenty of starting/playing NFL experience in his career already.

But thanks to it being a downgrade regardless, and the SNF 'under' narrative bleeding into every conversation about this game now, perception and reality don't really meet up in my eyes.

Side Spiel

Green Bay is currently laying 4 points on the road, and to be honest, I'm not sure if that's where it should be as there is just no interest from me in backing either side here. I'm sure it will be the Packers who get plenty of support from the betting public as this game inches closer, and with the Packers likely being tied into so many teasers and parlays for the day, chances are the oddsmakers will be rooting hard for KC to keep this game competitive.

Given my thoughts on the total, I would suggest that's probably going to be the case, and depending how much support Green Bay ends up getting by kickoff – VegasInsider.com betting percentages currently show about 70% support here late on Wednesday afternoon – the contrarian in me would have to side with Kansas City ATS or nothing, but 'nothing' would be a -1000 favorite right now.

Final Thoughts

For handicappers that prefer the lazy route of riding streaks for no other sake then riding a streak, this is a game I'm sure you'll here plenty of 'under' recommendations for because of the SNF 'under' record this year. But those same bettors know that all streaks come to an end, and this game between these two teams, in this perceived spot (SNF 'unders' are “unbeatable” and now we got a backup QB to boot), does feel like the perfect storm in terms of seeing this 'under' run with Michaels and Collinsworth on the mic finally come to an end.

There has been too much of an over-adjustment because of one guy, both defenses are still very suspect that they resemble a mirage, both offenses have so much scoring talent outside of the one guy who just happens to be KC's QB this week, and the narrative of SNF 'unders' being easy cashes has hit a fever pitch.

That does nothing but scream 'over' to me, and that's by far the best play for this game in my view.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 points

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2019, 01:12 PM

by: Josh Inglis

SACK TO THE FUTURE

Sunday’s match between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans will feature the Top-2 teams in the league in sacks given up. Combined, the two teams are averaging 9.7 sacks allowed per game over their last three contests and the Bucs are coming off a Week 6 showing that saw Jameis Winston get taken down seven times in Jolly Old London.

The Bucs are really struggling on the right side of the offensive line as they’re without starters Demar Dotson at tackle and Alex Cappa at guard. Even with these two in the lineup for Week 5, Tampa Bay surrendered six sacks to the New Orleans Saints. Cappa will not be available this week and Dotson is questionable.

The Titans may be able to clear the sack total themselves, but it doesn’t hurt that they gave up seven sacks themselves in Week 6 and new QB Ryan Tannehill has been sacked six times in less than six quarters since his promotion. Take the Over 5.5 combined sacks.

DEAL BAKER

We had to remember this play as the subject of our fade got a breather in Week 7. Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in interceptions since 2018 with 25 and has been picked off at least once in every game this year (11 in total).

The former 2018 No. 1 overall pick is last in passer rating with a clean pocket as well as last in passer rating when pressured. It’s safe to say he isn’t going to break out this slump Sunday when the Browns travel to Gillette Stadium.

The New England Patriots just made Sam Darnold, the No.3 overall pick in that same 2018 draft, see ghosts Monday and finish with a 3.6 passer rating with five turnovers. Even with the Week 7 bye, Baker and the boys are in for a world of hurt offensively versus Belichick. The Pats stop unit is making it a point to embarrass opposing QBs as their league-leading opponent passer rating of 35.6 indicates.

Making early prop predictions allows us to predict the line that we can then compare to the real prop odds when the markets open. We will take the Under on Mayfield’s passing total on any number above 214 and the Under on his completions on any number above 18.

TEXANS DEFENSE MASSACRE

The Houston Texans’ defense can’t get off the field. The Texans have the second-worst opponent third-down conversion percentage at over 50 percent and have a secondary that is allowing over three passing touchdowns a game.

The team knows they have a problem with their passing defense as they just acquired cornerback Gareon Conley from the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders must have a good understanding of Conley’s underachieving skillset as the Raiders travel to the Conley’s new home, Houston, this week.

If Conley (55.6 PFF grade) suits up Sunday, look for Derek Carr and Jon Gruden to game plan against the former teammate and a porous secondary one week after putting up nearly 500 yards of offense at Lambeau Field. Josh Jacobs is coming off his best game and the passing attack may get a little more help if No.1 receiver Tyrell Williams returns after missing Week 7.

We're taking the Over on the Raiders’ team total of 21.5.

BORN TO RUN

An offense with a quarterback in the Bottom 3 in QBR and one of the league’s best defenses passed the ball 54 times last week and ran the ball just seven times. It’s safe to say that Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears lost to the New Orleans Saints, as Bears head coach Matt Nagy said he thought his run game would be better coming out off a Week 6 bye.

Trubisky and the Bears are 5-11 when the QB throws over 30 pass attempts and 13-2 when he doesn’t. Chicago will look to get the run game going Sunday versus the Los Angeles Chargers, who are allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt as hosts in what can loosely be called a home stadium.

We will be waiting to see Trubisky’s passing-attempt total as well as the rushing attempt total for Bears’ running back David Montgomery when their respective markets open later in the week. We will be putting our money on the Under for passing attempts above 27 and also backing the Over on any Montgomery rushing attempt total of 15 or below.

BRONCOS ON THE HITCH POST

The Denver Broncos are in full yard-sale mode after shipping off Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco yesterday.

Last week’s lackadaisical loss to the Kansas City Chiefs may have had something to do with that, as Joe Flacco put in as much effort as Jay Cutler does lining up wide. Now the immobile quarterback will be without his No. 2 receiver ahead of the Broncos’ matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts sit on top of the AFC South, have their defensive leader Darius Leonard back, have a quarterback coming off his best game as a professional, and just won convincingly over their divisional rival. These are two teams going in opposite directions and whose locker rooms are probably polar opposites heading into Week 8.

We're riding the home favorite here and taking the Colts -6.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2019, 01:31 PM

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at MIN 08:20 PM

MIN -16.5*****

U 42.0*****

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2019, 12:07 AM

NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/24/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-0.50
10/21/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/20/2019.....13-8-1...........61.90%............+21.00
10/17/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00% .............-0.50
10/14/2019.......2-0-0.........100.00%.............+10.00
10/13/2019...11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/10/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%..............-11.00
10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals............106-91-1.......... 53.80%........... +29.50

*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/24/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/21/2019.............1 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/20/2019.............8 - 4..........+18.00................5 - 5............-2.50............+15.50
10/17/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0............+5.00............-0.50
10/14/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0............+5.00.............+10.00
10/13/2019.............6 - 5...........+2.50.................5 - 6.............-3.00.............-0.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................0 - 1.............-5.50.............-11.00
10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50................6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00................3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00................4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00................1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00................7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50................2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50................8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................47 - 47............-18.00.............50 - 38 ..........+46.00............+28.00

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2019, 12:09 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 8
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 13-0 ATS (10.65 ppg) since Oct 16, 2016 off a game as a dog where they covered.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Texans are 0-11 ATS (-10.86 ppg) since Oct 12, 2008 as a favorite facing a team that has rushed for at least 150 yards per game in their last three games.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 9-0-1 OU (8.55 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 coming off a road game where Derek Carr threw at least 2 touchdowns.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Bears are 11-0-1 OU (14.46 ppg) since Sep 15, 2013 off a game as a home favorite where they allowed more points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-11-2 OU (-4.50 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 on the road coming off a home loss where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Eagles are 16-0 OU (+13.00 ppg) as a dog vs a team that is committing an average of 1.75-plus turnovers per game.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2019, 12:10 AM

Total Talk - Week 8
Joe Williams

It's Week 8 of the National Football League regular season, as we're nearing the halfway point. It's time for another London game, and a handful of matchups featuring contenders squaring off against each other. It's also an odd week, as there are a total of ZERO division battles.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 7 6-7-1 9-5 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 49-56-1 48-57-1 48-54-4

The books were well in the black for a fourth straight time in Week 7. The totals were just 6-6-1 last week, and we've still had more under results than overs so far on the season and as we know, the public is all about rooting for over tickets.

Heading into Sunday's London game between the Cincinnati Bengals-Los Angeles Rams at Wembley Stadium, you might want to think 'over' in the UK matchups. The total has gone over in each of the first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in England, so why not Wembley, too?

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 7 were not rewarded as the over went just 6-8 in the final 30 minutes. Similar to the overall under (56-49-1) results on the season, the under holds advantages in both the first-half (57-48-1) and second-half (54-48-4).

Division Bell

We had a total of five divisional battles in Week 7, and the winning team in each game had more than 30 points in each outing. However, the losing team averaging just 12 points per game in those contests, with only Miami and Houston scoring more than 11 points. The under is now 23-12 (65.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 7
Kansas City at Denver Under (49.5) Kansas City 30, Denver 6
Houston at Indianapolis Over (46.5) Indianapolis 30, Houston 23
Miami at Buffalo Over (42) Buffalo 31, Miami 21
Philadelphia at Dallas Under (50) Dallas 37, Philadelphia 10
New England at N.Y. Jets Under (43) New England 33, N.Y. Jets 0

London Totals

We had a pair of battles at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Weeks 5 and 6, and Jolly Ol' England was without an NFL game in Week 7. However, the International Series resumes on Sunday with the Bengals and Rams. The last time the Bengals played overseas they didn't win, but they didn't lose either. They played to a 27-27 tie with the Redskins back on Oct. 30, 2016 in their lone appearance in London.

As far as the Rams are concerned, they're making their fourth appearance in London in franchise history, and third in the past four seasons. The 'under' has hit in two of the three battles, including each of the two since they relocated to Los Angeles. While the 'under' is 2-1 in their past three games away from home, they'll be facing a shoddy Bengals defense which is battling several injuries in their secondary.

London Results - Past Nine Games
Week 6 - 2019 - Carolina vs. Tampa Bay Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Oakland at Houston: 48 to 51 ½
Cleveland at New England: 46 ½ to 44 ½
Denver at Indianapolis: 43 ½ to 42
Tampa Bay at Tennessee: 47 to 45 ½
Seattle at Atlanta: 54 to 53
N.Y. Giants at Detroit: 48 ½ to 49 ½
Miami at Pittsburgh (MNF): 42 ½ to 43 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Seattle at Atlanta: Under 100%
Denver at Indianapolis: Under 86%
N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville: Over 81%
Carolina at San Francisco: Under 77%
Miami at Pittsburgh (MNF): Over 74%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (71 percent) in the Cincinnati-L.A. Rams matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Green Bay-Kansas City (69 percent) battle on Sunday Night Football.

Handicapping Week 8

Week 7 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-3 13-22
NFC vs. NFC 1-3 12-11
AFC vs. AFC 1-0-1 10-6-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 15-16

Other Week 8 Action

Seattle at Atlanta: The Seahawks head east, and so far this season that has meant plenty of points. The 'over' is 2-0 in their previous two forays into the Eastern Time Zone, and they have another trip later this season on Nov. 24 in Philadelphia. For the Falcons, they cannot stop anyone lately. They have yielded at least 20 points in each of their seven games, including 34 or more points in each of the past three. The only reason the 'under' cashed last week was because they posted only 10 points. Quarterback Matt Ryan (ankle) left last week's game due to an ankle injury, and he missed practice Wednesday and Thursday before doing limited work Friday. If QB Matt Schaub gets the nod under center, that will hurt the potential for an over, although the defense is still very giving. The total on this game opened at 48.5 at the Circa in Las Vegas and now sits at 52.5 as of Saturday morning.

L.A. Chargers at Chicago: The Chargers have scored more than 20 points on just two of seven occasions, with the 'under' going 5-2 in L.A.'s seven outings. Their defense has been fair, allowing 24 or fewer points in six of their seven contests. In their three road games the under is 2-1, averaging 20 PPG while allowing 15.3 PPG. The Bears have struggled all season offensively, although they have showed some signs of life over the past two with 21 and 25 points respectively. The defense failed against the Saints last week, allowing 36, and the 'over' is 3-1 in the past four for Chicago. That vaunted Bears defense has simply been tiring, as they're on the field a lot, as the offense cannot sustain long drives to give them a much-needed break. This is another total that has watched the number get pushed up, from 39.5 to 41.5.

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville: The Jets entered Monday's game with a lot of promise following their win over the Cowboys, but the offense was blanked in their 33-0 setback against the Patriots. New York has averaged just 10.5 PPG, and they've only been slightly better with QB Sam Darnold under center, posting 13.4 PPG. The Jets have gone on the road twice, allowing 30.5 PPG. The Jaguars have hit the 'under' in two of their three home games, allowing 20 PPG while scoring 17.3 PPG. The 'under' is 7-1 in Jacksonville's past eight home games dating back to last season, and 9-4 in their past 13 on a grass surface.

Philadelphia at Buffalo: The Bills finally saw their first over result last week against the Dolphins after a 5-0 'under' run to start the season. Their defense has been very good this season, allowing 17 or fewer points in five of six outings. The 5-1 Bills posted 21 and 31 in two home games against the winless Bengals and Dolphins, but they managed just 10 points in the only game they played against a winning team (Patriots). The Eagles are playing in a third consecutive game on the road. The under has connected in five of their past seven games on the road.

Denver at Indianapolis: The Broncos traded one of their top receivers, wide receiever Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers, so they won't help their offense. Not that the offense was doing much with him, averaging just 16 PPG. That's the exact amount of points they put up in road games in Week 1 in Oakland, and Week 3 in Green Bay, too. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for Denver, and five of seven overall. Many thought the Colts would be in the same 'under' both when QB Andrew Luck retired surprisingly, but QB Jacoby Brissett has more than handled himself with aplomb. In three home games the Colts offense is averaging 27 PPG while allowing 26 PPG. As such, the 'over' has hit in all three games at Lucas Oil Stadium so far.

Detroit at N.Y. Giants: The Giants made the switch to rookie QB Daniel Jones in Week 3, the same week running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) went down. We finally saw both of them on the field for an entire game, but weather was a factor in rainy conditions against the Cardinals last week. Still, in parts of two games with Barkley and Jones together in the lineup, the offense has produced 53 total points. The Lions had a 13-10 win over the Chargers in Week 2, but so far that game looks like an outlier. The over is 4-2 in their six games overall, and they have posted 27 or more points on offense in four outings overall. The defense has also coughed up 23 or more points in five of six, so this game could be a potential shootout.

Carolina at San Francisco: The Panthers return from a bye, and they're sticking with QB Kyle Allen, which isn't a surprise considering the team is 4-0 both SU and ATS with him under center. The offense has hit 34 or more points in three of the past four as well, with the 'over' going 3-1 during Allen's reign. RB Christian McCaffrey returns to the Bay Area where he starred at nearby Stanford. He could be held down by the stifling defense of the Niners, however. San Francisco's defense has allowed a total of 10 points in the past three outings, although last week's effort by the D was certainly helped out by a combination of rain, mud and the futility of the Redskins as a whole.

Oakland at Houston: This game is expected to see plenty of fireworks. The Raiders have pieced things together on offense, posting 31, 24 and 24 over their past three games. The defense is still a train wreck, but that's great news for over bettors, which have cashed in each of the past four for the Silver and Black. Oakland has allowed an average of 29.8 PPG across the past five contests. The 'over' has cashed in each of the past three for the Texans, too, as they have rolled up 35.7 PPG on offense, while yielding 28.7 PPG over the past three, giving up at least 24 in each outing.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of nine or more points for Week 8, with all four home teams listed as a double-digit favorites. The totals are ranging from 41 to 44 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Cincinnati at L.A. Rams (1:00 p.m. ET - London): The Bengals have hit the 'under' in each of the three games where they have been an underdog of six or more points. They're averaging 18 PPG in those three games while yielding 21.7 PPG in those contests. Overall the under is 4-2-1 for Cincinnati, who continues to miss WR A.J. Green (ankle). The Rams have registered 30, 20, 29 and 37 in their four games away from home this season.

Arizona at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The Cardinals are winning football games lately, entering the Crescent City on a three-game run. After stumbling out of the chute, rookie QB Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury's offense are starting to show tremendous improvement. During the three-game win streak the Cards have posted 26 or more points in each outing after hitting the mark once in the first four games. The Saints have been up and down without QB Drew Brees (thumb) across the past five, but they won and covered each game. The 'over' went 3-2 in Brees' absence, hitting 31 or more points in those three overs. Brees is hopeful of playing Sunday, which should help aid in the over as long as he isn't rusty.

Cleveland at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): The Browns haven't been the high-octane offense many envisioned heading into the season, going 2-4 both SU and ATS. The 'over/under' has split 3-3, while hitting the over just once in three road games when they inexplicably hung a 40-burger on the Ravens in Week 4. They have scored 13 or fewer points on three of six occasions, and they don't figure to do much against a Patriots defense coming off a shutout and allowing just 48 total points through seven games. And 14 of those points were scored by the Jets defense in Week 3, making the defense's contributions in New England that much more impressive.

Miami at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): (See below)

Under the Lights

Green Bay at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football lost a little bit of luster when QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) dislocated a kneecap on a sneak in Denver. QB Matt Moore vs. QB Aaron Rodgers just doesn't have the same ring to it. But it still could be a high-scoring affair, as the Packers have 23 or more points in five straight games, hitting the over in four of those outings. The Chiefs defense has been very giving, and will need to tighten up with a backup QB under center. They figure to score less points, so they need to find a way to yield fewer points, too. In three home games the Chiefs are allowing 29.3 PPG.

Miami at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Dolphins were a lot better on offense in Buffalo last week, going for a season-high 21 points in a 31-21 loss. It was their first 'over' since Week 1, and they actually helped contribute to the total as opposed to the opener when Baltimore did most of the heavy lifting. The Dolphins have averaged 18.5 PPG in the past two games on offense, posting 16 and 21. The defense has coughed up 30 or more points in five of their six games, so QB Mason Rudolph returns from concussion in a very good spot. The Steelers were able to score 24 points with a third-string undrafted rookie QB against a decent Chargers D. Imagine what they'll do with improved QB play against the winless and very giving Fins.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2019, 12:11 AM

Sunday Blitz - Week 8
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Eagles at Bills (-1 ½, 42) – 1:00 PM EST
There was plenty of hype around Philadelphia (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) to start the season as a legitimate threat to win the NFC. The Eagles have been passed by the likes of the Saints, Packers, and 49ers for that distinction, as Philadelphia needs to bounce back quickly to return to the playoff discussion. The last two weeks have been a disaster, at least from a defensive standpoint as the Eagles allowed 38 points at Minnesota and 37 points at Dallas, both losses. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road while handing Green Bay its only loss of the season back in Week 4.

The Bills (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) continue to take advantage of a weak schedule as Buffalo held off Miami as 17-point favorites, 31-21. Buffalo scored its most points in a game this season, but also allowed its most points after limiting its previous five opponents to 17 points or fewer. All five teams the Bills have beaten own losing records, including three teams that have won one game or fewer (Dolphins, Bengals, and Jets). Buffalo has failed to cover in two home victories as a favorite, while compiling a 1-4 ATS mark as chalk at New Era Field since last season.

From a totals standpoint, the Eagles have hit the OVER in four of five opportunities with totals of 50 or below, while the Bills drilled their first OVER of the season after five consecutive UNDERS.

Best Bet: Eagles 27, Bills 23

Panthers at 49ers (-5 ½, 42 ½) – 4:05 PM EST
Only two undefeated teams remain in the NFL as San Francisco (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) returns home after a 9-0 shutout of Washington. The 49ers failed to cash as 10-point favorites, but it was the third consecutive time San Francisco held an opponent to single-digits. Due to a scheduling quirk, the 49ers are hosting their first NFC foe of the season in Week 8 after beating the Steelers and Browns already at Levi’s Stadium.

The Panthers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) return from the bye week after causing seven turnovers in a 37-26 victory over the Buccaneers in London. Carolina improved to 4-0 SU/ATS since Kyle Allen took over at quarterback for the injured Cam Newton, as the former University of Houston standout has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions. The Panthers own a perfect 3-0 record on the record (including that London victory), while running back Christian McCaffrey will be happy not to see Tampa Bay, who held him to below 40 yards rushing twice, compared to averaging 137.5 yards rushing in the other four games.

Carolina is making its first visit to San Francisco since the 2017 opener when the Panthers blew out the 49ers, 23-3 as 4 ½-point road favorites. The Panthers will be tested in their next three road games as after the 49ers’ contest on Sunday, Carolina travels to Green Bay (Week 10) and New Orleans (Week 12) over the next month. San Francisco has a quick turnaround as the Niners venture to Arizona on Halloween night on Thursday.

Best Bet: 49ers 20, Panthers 16

Browns at Patriots (-10 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Besides San Francisco, New England (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) is the other unbeaten team in the NFL, which is not a surprise. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season, while pulling off their second shutout of 2019 by blanking the Jets, 33-0. New England created six turnovers, including intercepting Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold four times. The Pats have dealt with plenty of injuries on offense, but New England has eclipsed the 30-point mark six times, while outgaining three opponents by 200 yards or more.

The Browns (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) travel to Foxborough following their bye week after blowing a 14-point lead in a 32-28 home defeat to Seattle in Week 6. Cleveland has yet to win a home game this season at 0-3, but the Browns’ two victories have come away from FirstEnergy Stadium against the Jets and Ravens. In their only opportunity as an underdog of a touchdown or more this season, the Browns dropped 40 points in a blowout of Baltimore, as Cleveland is listed as a double-digit ‘dog for the first time since cashing in a 21-18 defeat at New Orleans receiving 10 points in 2018.

New England has compiled a 3-1 ATS ledger this season as a double-digit favorite, while posting an impressive 7-1 ATS mark since the start of 2018 when laying at least 10 points. The Browns and Patriots haven’t hooked up since 2016 in Cleveland when New England easily cashed as 10-point favorites in a 33-13 rout.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Browns 21

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 49 ½ - Giants at Lions
Detroit got its offense going last week against Minnesota, but couldn’t slow down the Vikings in a 42-30 defeat. The Lions have allowed at least 23 points in five of six games this season, while the Giants have been torched in six of seven games, by giving up 27 or more six times. Rewinding back to the Green Bay debacle two weeks ago, Detroit was limited to five field goals and one touchdown, as the Lions are moving the ball, it’s just about cashing in and these two teams can have a track meet at Ford Field.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Colts are coming off a huge divisional win over the Texans to move into first place of the AFC South. Now, Indianapolis looks to avoid a letdown against Denver, who is fresh off an ugly home loss to Kansas City last week. The Broncos dealt away their top wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco earlier in the week, but Denver did pick up a victory in its last road game at Los Angeles in Week 6. The Colts have won four of their last five games with the lone loss in this stretch coming to the Raiders as 5 ½-point favorites, which happened right after a home win against the Falcons.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Jaguars opened up as 4 ½-point favorites against the dismal Jets on Monday, but after New York’s performance against New England, that number spiked to seven at the Westgate Superbook by the weekend. Jacksonville owns a 4-2 ATS record with rookie Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback following last week’s victory at Cincinnati. The Jets have scored a total of 20 points on the road this season in losses to the Patriots and Eagles, but Sam Darnold makes his first away start of 2019 for New York.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The last six teams to take the field prior to hosting a Thursday night game this season have covered the spread, while the past five squads have won outright. The team in this situation in Week 8 is Arizona, who hosts San Francisco next Thursday. In fact, all five of these clubs that won all did so by double-digits, but the Cardinals (who travel to New Orleans) are the first underdog in this situation since Week 2 when the Jaguars visited the Texans.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2019, 12:13 AM

by: Josh Inglis

TATE OF THE ART

Golden Tate will face his former team the Detroit Lions this Sunday and the timing couldn’t be better for the receiver and the New York Giants’ passing attack. The Lions traded starting safety Quandre Diggs earlier in the week and top corner Darius Slay has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest.

With Diggs and Slay starting in Week 7, the Lions allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for a season-high 337 yards, 100 yards more than their season average. This week, New York will be without Sterling Shepard once again as Tate will remain the focal point of Daniel Jones’ passing attack.

Tate will have the revenge angle working for him and is on the heels of 20 catches for 182 yards and score and was responsible for 47 percent of Daniel Jones’ passing yards over the last two weeks.

Take the Over on Tate’s receiving yard total of 54.5 and Over on 4.5 receptions.

THREE-PACK OF QB RUSHING TOTALS

Russell Wilson (26.5): Wilson sits fourth among QBs with 90 yards rushing over the last four games and is 3-1 over that stretch in clearing his rushing total. Wilson isn’t passing his totals by much, but he is still cashing and will look to keep the trend going into this week's game in Atlanta as the Falcons have allowed 102 yards rushing to their last three mobile quarterbacks (sorry Jared Goff). Over 26.5 yards rushing.

Daniel Jones (18.5): Danny Dimes is 3-2 in clearing his rushing total this year as his modest lines are always susceptible to the Over in two or three rushes. Jones sits ninth amongst QBs in rushing yards and didn’t take over the job until Week 3. It helps to have teams key on Saquon Barkley as well, allowing Jones to break bigger plays when keeping on RPOs as he has 63 yards rushing in the two games with the star running back in the lineup. Over 18.5.

Kyler Murray (35.5): Murray has the second-most QB rushing yards over the last four weeks as the rookie is growing and getting more comfortable with his abilities. However, now might be a good time to get some value on the Under as the hype is starting to get loud and New Orleans is legit, holding opposing QBs to just four yards on four attempts since Week 4 (Mitch Trubisky, Gardner Minshew, Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott). Under 35.5.

BETTING ON A BELL BREAKOUT

Le’Veon Bell is a name that we haven’t thrown around here much. Having Luke Falk run the offense didn’t help any, but the former Steeler averaged 4.12 yards a carry against the Cowboys and Patriots with Sam Darnold back under center, which is much closer to his career average of 4.3.

With J-E-T-S coming off an awful 33-0 primetime loss to the Pats, we expect New York to come out strong against the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 27th-ranked rush defense who will now be without DT Marcell Dareus.

We are banking for a Bell breakout game. Take Bell’s Over 68.5 rushing yards.

THE WEATHER OUTSIDE IS FRIGHTFUL

We are at that time in the schedule where the weather can be a big factor. The forecast doesn’t look too nice in Buffalo for this weekend's matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 100 percent chance of rain in the morning and a 60 percent at game time. Heavy winds (~27 mph) are also expected and temperature in the mid-50s.

With Buffalo averaging 20 points a game at home and the Eagles scoring 21 on the road, it will be a daunting task for either of these teams to outplay their averages in poor playing conditions. The Bills are also 4-2 o/u this year and 2-1 o/u on totals below 43 while the Eagles are 2-2 o/u on the road this year and hit the Under on their lowest total in Week 5 at 43.

We are jumping on the Under 42 and hope New Era Field looks like FedEx Field last week.

*BONUS PLAY: Under longest field goal 45.5 (-112)

LAST CALL ON CARSON

The Atlanta Falcons have the No.4 rush DVOA defense but will have a difficult time Sunday versus Chris Carson who is averaging 24.5 carries for 103 yards a game over his last four. Those last four games included a 118-yard performance versus the No. 2 rush DVOA defense.

The Seattle Seahawks won’t abandon the run, like many of the Falcons’ opponents, as they are running the ball at the third-highest rate since Week 5. Carson is the alpha-dog in the backfield hitting 80 percent or more of the offensive snaps over the last three and hitting a season-high 89 percent last week.

The Seahawks/Falcons prop markets aren’t currently open as books are waiting to see if Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will suit up Sunday. Once it opens, we will take the Over on Carson’s rushing yards on any total below 85 yards.

DEFENSIVE CARE

We talked about how bad Baker Mayfield has been this year and how difficult a task he has ahead of his matchup with the best DVOA defense in the New England Patriots. Today, we are going to try to talk you into another great prop bet that is paying +200.

The Pats have scored three defensive touchdowns, which is the second-most in the league. Conversely, Tom Brady’s offense has allowed three defensive TDs while their special teams have crossed the plane twice to date.

Combine these New England stats with the fact that the Cleveland Browns are averaging three giveaways a game over the last four weeks, and we are hopping on Sunday’s prop bet of a special team or defensive touchdown scored and hitting the yes at +200.

PUBLIC ENEMY NUMBER ONE

Did you lose money on Melvin Gordon’s suck attack last Sunday? Yes, us too. We are going to focus our fade hate on the one-yard fumbler this week ahead of his match versus the Chicago Bears.

In Gordon’s 36 carries since coming back from his holdout, the runner has plodded to three-or-less yards on 27 of those carries with a long of seven yards. We may see Austin Ekeler’s snap count increase in Week 8 after seeing 59 percent last week and Gordon fumbling twice over his last 12 runs.

Want more reasons to get your revenge on Melvin? The Los Angeles Chargers’ opponent, the Chicago Bears, are fifth in the league in yards per rush attempt against at 3.6.. Hop on the hate-wagon and take Gordon’s Under on his total of 54.5 rushing yards

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2019, 12:14 AM

NFL Week 8 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) will not play Sunday night against Green Bay. Mahomes is worth more than a touchdown to the line, and the Chiefs are 4.5-point home underdogs.

NFL Week 8 includes a Sunday night showdown that got a little less attractive due to a big absence. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas

INJURY IMPACT

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: In the Week 7 Thursday nighter, quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a dislocated knee. Oddsmakers never thought Mahomes would actually play Sunday night at home against the Packers, and that was factored into the line all week, ahead of Friday’s confirmation that he would not play.

“Mahomes is worth 8-9 points to the line,” Osterman told Covers. “It’s 8 points in this case, because the line crosses zero. If it were a line where the Chiefs were significant favorites to start off with, it would be a little more than 8 points.” The Chiefs opened +3 and stretched to +4.5, with the total going from 48 to 49, then down to 47.5.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: It sounds as if Drew Brees will return to action, after sitting out since suffering a thumb injury in Week 2. But as with Mahomes, that was factored into an opening line of Saints -7.5 against the visiting Cardinals. That number then shot up to -10.5. “The line as it is now is with Brees playing. There’s probably about a 3-point difference between him and Teddy Bridgewater.”

Saints running back Alvin Kamara (ankle/knee) is questionable, but even if he returns, Osterman said the already-high number likely wouldn’t move further.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams (toe) is out for the third straight game, as he won’t play at Kansas City on Sunday night. But once again, that was built into the line, which stood at Packers -4.5 on Friday night.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Quarterback Matt Ryan is an iron man, starting 154 consecutive games over the past decade. But he’s questionable with an ankle injury, with a decision expected Saturday for Sunday’s home tilt against the Seahawks. This line has been off the board all week. “With Matt Ryan playing, the line will be around Seattle -3.5 to -4. Without Ryan, it will be around Seattle -7, maybe even -7.5.”

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Rookie running back Josh Jacobs, averaging 5.1 yards per carry while rushing for 554 yards through six games, has a shoulder injury and is questionable for Sunday’s contest at Houston. “I would expect Jacobs to move the line a half-point if he’s out. He has proven to be a significant piece for the Raiders.” Oakland is a 6.5-point underdog.

WEATHER WATCH

CLEVELAND AT NEW ENGLAND: There’s a very strong chance of Sunday rain in Foxboro, along with winds of 10 to 20 mph. “The total is down a half-point. I would expect it to move another half-point if the forecast (Saturday) shows more potential for rain.” In fact, after opening at 45.5 and dipping to 45 early Friday afternoon, the total ticked to 44.5 later Friday afternoon.

PHILADELPHIA AT BUFFALO: New Era Field has a 60 percent chance of seeing precipitation, and winds of 20 to 30 mph are also expected. “There’s definitely some cause for concern in the kicking game. The total has gone down a half-point, and I’d expect it to drop more, depending on the wind speed.” The total was at 42 Friday.

PROS VS. JOES

CLEVELAND AT NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots opened -10, shot to -13, then dropped to -10.5 by lunch hour Friday in Vegas. “We took a bet from a really sharp player on Browns +12. The public is all over the Pats, like always.”

DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts opened -6.5 and were down to -5 Friday morning. “The Colts are our leading ticket-count team and have the most parlay bets of any team on the board, but the line has moved in Denver’s favor.” So the public is on Indy, while the wiseguys played Denver.

REVERSE LINE MOVES

CAROLINA AT SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers dropped from -6.5 to -5.5, thanks to sharp play on the Panthers. But more money – no surprise, public action – is on the unbeaten 49ers at The SuperBook.

CINCINNATI VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS: In this London clash at Wembley Stadium, the Rams opened -13 and dropped to -11.5, though more cash is on L.A. “The public will bet almost any team against the Bengals,” Osterman said, noting the defending NFC champion Rams aren’t just any team. “Some sharp money on the Bengals.”

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT CHICAGO BEARS: “We’re seeing the parlay money show up on the Bears, but the line has dropped significantly. We’re down to Bears -3.5, from -6.”

DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS: As noted above in Pros vs. Joes, there's more money for the Colts, but the line moved toward Denver.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2019, 12:15 AM

SNF - Packers at Chiefs
Matt Blunt

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It turns out that maybe I wasn't the only one who questioned the authenticity of Carson Wentz being a legitimate #1 QB in this league last week, as after that brutal performance by the Eagles – from top to bottom – there was much more chatter and criticism directed Wentz's way.

What made me laugh though was HC Doug Pederson's post-game press conference comments about “the Eagles all needing to look in the mirror” to essentially get things fixed. That comment fits oh so well with my metaphor of Wentz being the “Dorian Gray” of the NFL, and being so vain that it's simply about 'looking' the part at all times with this team. We will see if the Eagles are able to turn things around or if the wheels are about to completely fall off of their 2019 season, and early action this week for their game in Buffalo has already come the Bills way.

But this piece is all about SNF games and this week we've got a non-conference showdown that lost much of it's bite with the QB Patrick Mahomes injury a week ago. I'm sure SNF producers were salivating at the potential of this matchup when the schedule came out, but it's only Aaron Rodgers coming to the party now and much of that excitement has probably waned. That doesn't mean this can't be a great game between two potential Super Bowl candidates, as Matt Moore isn't thrust into duty in a relatively unprepared manner this week, and Packers fans are hoping Aaron Rodgers and company continue to do their thing.

So let's get right into the game, and I assure you there won't be any literature metaphors bleeding into the analysis this week.

Total Talk

The total is actually the better betting option of the two (side or total) for this game in my view and it's where the bulk of my focus will be.

Yes, everyone knows that SNF games are still perfect to the 'under' this year after Philly and Dallas couldn't climb over their number in a ho-hum 2nd half after putting up 34 points in the first 30 minutes. That makes it a perfect 0-8 O/U on the season for Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth and the SNF crew, a run that's rather absurd and phenomenal all at the same time.

It's that run that will get talked up plenty this week as we've got a backup QB in Moore going, and with the bigger chunk of that perception being more about Mahomes being gone, I'm sure you will hear plenty of support for going low on the total this week. After all, the 'over' has yet to cash on SNF, and backup QB's are backup QB's for a reason right. A number that was sitting as high as 49.5 at some places earlier in the week is already sitting at 47.5 at the time of this writing, and I'm sure we could see it trend even lower.

Now one thing I do believe supports the low side here is the theory that going low on a total with a team that scored 40+ points the week prior (Green Bay) is something to consider. But outside of that, and the completely random SNF 'under' record, that's about it. If you want to follow the herd all across the grid looking to go 'under' this total, then by all means do so. But give me a chance to at least provide some counter points.

To start, non-conference games like this are ones where I believe you generally want to lean 'over' in terms of a blind/initial reaction because there just isn't the hatred or ingrained knowledge of what opponents run as there is in conference/division games. The last three weeks alone we've seen AFC/NFC games post a 8-6 O/U record blind as it is.

Taking it a step further, non-conference games the past four weeks have averaged 49.2 points per game when you eliminate those contests that featured both sides having losing records (as of today). That eliminates the “thriller” between Washington and Miami for one – a game that finished with 33 points, as well as a 37-point effort by the Jets/Eagles, and a 34-point effort from Tennessee and Atlanta.

That's quite the number in regards to where this week's total currently sits at 47.5, and it includes games like the 19 total points New Orleans and Jacksonville had in Week 6, as well as the 34-point effort from the Cleveland/San Francisco MNF game a few weeks back.

Furthermore, when you narrow things down to just the past three weeks and only include AFC/NFC games between teams that are currently .500 or better in the standings, you get a 2-1 O/U record with an average point total of 52.33 points. Obviously that's not the biggest sample size, but this Green Bay team accounted for most of that production and considering they are involved in this game, it is worth consideration.

Moreover, If you were to look at all the AFC/NFC games the past four weeks that featured a team that currently has 5 or more wins like both the Packers and Chiefs do, you'd get an average point total of 47.25 points – right on this number right.

But eliminate that Saints/Jags game with 19 points featuring Teddy Checkdown – I mean Bridgewater – and all of a sudden that number bumps up to 51.28 points per game over the past four weeks; going 4-3 O/U in the process. The past two weeks alone – again omitting that Saints/Jags game – is 3-1 O/U with an average of 55.25 points scored. Oh, and the two games that had either the Chiefs or Packers involved finished with at least 64 points.

Finally, you can zero in on the two respective teams involved in this game and see plenty of reasons – even with Matt Moore under center – that can lead to points being put up.

Kansas City's defense is still among the bottom four teams in the entire NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (148.9) with just Cleveland and the winless Dolphins and Bengals being worse. They give up five yards per rush as a part of that stat line, and Green Bay may not be the first team you think of when thinking of running teams, but the Packers can use their passing attack, or just the threat of their passing attack, to open up plenty of running lanes in general and have huge days on the ground.

For KC to give up the yardage they do and only allow 21.4 points per game is about as smoke and mirrors as it gets, and considering four of the five non-division opponents the Chiefs have faced this year has put up at least 26 points on the scoreboard, you've got to like Aaron Rodgers chances of having another big offensive day.

On the flip side of things, Moore will have a gameplan that's catered to what he does well with a full 10 days to get ready for this contest, and it's not like he's incapable of finding success at this levels with all the playmakers he's got around him. He had no problem hitting WR Tyreek Hill in stride for a long TD last Thursday, and while it was only a one-off, it does show you what the kind of potential is there.

Green Bay's defense ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in rushing yards allowed as well (128.9 per game), and at 381 yards allowed per game overall, they are the worst NFL team in that category that currently has a winning record – KC isn't much better with 377.4 yards allowed per game. So there is plenty of smoke and mirrors on Green Bay's defense as well, as they've allowed 22 or more points in four straight games themselves, and that run would be 24 or more points allowed in all four games had the Lions not settled for so many FG's and been burned by suspect calls in their MNF affair.

Had Mahomes been available for this game, this total would have been in the upper 50's at a bare minimum, and while he is the reigning MVP of the league and is a dynamic playmaker, this is far too much of an adjustment for a backup QB that has plenty of starting/playing NFL experience in his career already.

But thanks to it being a downgrade regardless, and the SNF 'under' narrative bleeding into every conversation about this game now, perception and reality don't really meet up in my eyes.

Side Spiel

Green Bay is currently laying 4 points on the road, and to be honest, I'm not sure if that's where it should be as there is just no interest from me in backing either side here. I'm sure it will be the Packers who get plenty of support from the betting public as this game inches closer, and with the Packers likely being tied into so many teasers and parlays for the day, chances are the oddsmakers will be rooting hard for KC to keep this game competitive.

Given my thoughts on the total, I would suggest that's probably going to be the case, and depending how much support Green Bay ends up getting by kickoff – VegasInsider.com betting percentages currently show about 70% support here late on Wednesday afternoon – the contrarian in me would have to side with Kansas City ATS or nothing, but 'nothing' would be a -1000 favorite right now.

Final Thoughts

For handicappers that prefer the lazy route of riding streaks for no other sake then riding a streak, this is a game I'm sure you'll here plenty of 'under' recommendations for because of the SNF 'under' record this year. But those same bettors know that all streaks come to an end, and this game between these two teams, in this perceived spot (SNF 'unders' are “unbeatable” and now we got a backup QB to boot), does feel like the perfect storm in terms of seeing this 'under' run with Michaels and Collinsworth on the mic finally come to an end.

There has been too much of an over-adjustment because of one guy, both defenses are still very suspect that they resemble a mirage, both offenses have so much scoring talent outside of the one guy who just happens to be KC's QB this week, and the narrative of SNF 'unders' being easy cashes has hit a fever pitch.

That does nothing but scream 'over' to me, and that's by far the best play for this game in my view.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 points

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2019, 12:32 AM

SuperContest Picks - Week 8
October 26, 2019
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

1) Carolina +5.5 (1418)

2) Indianapolis -5.5 (1409)

3) Seattle -6.5 (920)

4) Tampa Bay +2.5 (705)

5) Philadelphia +1.5 (697)

SUEPRCONTEST - WEEK 8 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Washington (+16) 153 Minnesota (-16) 179
N.Y. Giants (+6.5) 640 Detroit (-6.5) 448
Tampa Bay (+2.5) 705 Tennessee (-2.5) 314
L.A. Chargers (+4) 640 Chicago (-4) 320
Seattle (-6.5) 920 Atlanta (+6.5) 159
N.Y. Jets (+6) 654 Jacksonville (-6) 466
Philadelphia (+1.5) 697 Buffalo (-1.5) 691
Cincinnati (+13) 203 L.A. Rams (-13) 577
Arizona (+10.5) 531 New Orleans (-10.5) 305
Oakland (+6.5) 377 Houston (-6.5) 661
Carolina (+5.5) 1418 San Francisco (-5.5) 400
Denver (+5.5) 298 Indianapolis (-5.5) 1409
Cleveland (+13) 625 New England (-13) 488
Green Bay (-4) 689 Kansas City (+4) 689
Miami (+14) 675 Pittsburgh (-14) 154

SUPERCONTEST - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 3-2 6-4 60%
3 3-2 9-6 60%
4 2-3 11-9 55%
5 3-2 14-11 56%
6 2-3 16-14 53%
7 3-2 19-16 54%
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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