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  • Sunday's Essentials - Week 8
    Tony Mejia

    Giants at Lions (-6.5/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Saquon Barkley returned from a month-long absence and finished with 80 yards from scrimmage against the Cardinals last week, so New York aims to get him really going as they try to end a three-game losing streak. One of the main guys standing in his way will be former teammate Damon “Snacks” Harrison, who is now attempting to be one of the main lines of defense to help Detroit stop the run. The Lions’ DT is a noted run stopper but hasn’t been able to prevent his team from ranking fifth-worst in the NFL in yards allowed on the ground.

    Speaking of determined former teammates, Giants WR Golden Tate will look to continue emerging as one of rookie Daniel Jones’ favorite targets, especially since Sterling Shepard remains out with a concussion. Detroit’s top corner, Darius Slay, is out with a hamstring issue, which doesn’t bode well for the Lions improving on a pass defense that ranks 31st in yardage allowed. Matthew Stafford won’t have RB Kerryon Johnson back until at least Week 16 due to a knee injury that required surgery, so rookie Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic will have to fill in. The Lions have lost three straight despite averaging 27.3 points, surrendering 33 points within that span.

    Bucs at Titans (-2.5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    This was circled on the schedule as a chance to see the top picks of the 2015 Draft square off, but Marcus Maritoa won’t be getting in unless there’s a need to replace Ryan Tannehill, who took his job and helped produce a 23-20 win over the Chargers last week. There’s also always the possibility that Bruce Arians loses patience with Jameis Winston, who has thrown 10 interceptions this season, including five last time we saw him overseas in an embarrassing loss to Carolina. Both teams still have illusions of saving their season and playing one meaningful game after another next month, so this one is vital to keeping those hopes alive.

    Winston won’t have TE O.J. Howard to work with but has plenty of options in top WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who will be working against a injury-riddled secondary. Veteran Cameron Brate will fill in for Howard, while Tennessee will need to replace CBs Chris Milton and Adoree Jackson in addition to LB Sharif Finch. Standout tight end Delanie Walker wasn’t able to make it back from an ankle issue, so Jonnu Smith will be pressed into a larger role. LB Kamalei Correa is listed as questionable. Tampa’s biggest remaining variable is veteran RT Demar Dotson (hamstring), who is hoping to be healthy enough to play. The Bucs will already be minus RG Alex Cappa. A pleasant day awaits both teams from a weather standpoint, so this one will be strictly about execution. The Bucs’ only wins this season have come outside of Tampa Bay. Their last fiour games have all surpassed the posted total.

    Chargers at Bears (-3.5/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Chargers could get back DE Melvin Ingram back from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury, which would definitely help a defense decimated by injuries for most of the season a little more teeth. DTs Brandon Mebane and Justin Jones will remain out, which is good news for a Bears’ running game that has been anemic. Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t been good either, but he does have an elite option in WR Allen Robinson, who continues to be the lone consistent source of production on an offense that has been incredibly disappointing.

    Philip Rivers’ go-to guy, standout WR Keenan Allen, sat out practices with a hamstring issue and may not be able to participate. RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are dangerous options out of the backfield that could help the Bears’ defense from being too aggressive. Khalil Mack comes off an unproductive effort against New Orleans, while safety Eddie Jackson will be gunning for the Chargers’ backs, so there will be some fun matchups to monitor even if both teams continue to struggle to move the ball. Weather won’t be a factor in Chicago since neither wind nor bitter cold has settled in yet.

    Seahawks (-8.5/50) at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Falcons ruled Matt Ryan out due to an ankle injury on Sunday, so Matt Schaub will be at the controls hoping to snap a five-game losing streak and keep the buzzards from engulfing beleaguered head coach Dan Quinn entering next week’s bye. Considering the season appears lost already, it seems like a change is coming. WR Mohamed Sanu has already been traded, so Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will serve as Schaub’s primary targets against a Seattle defense looking to bounce back from a tough day against the elusive Lamar Jackson. The Seahawks have allowed 26 or more points in five of the last six games but haven’t dropped consecutive games since the beginning of last November.

    Adding safety Quandre Diggs from the Lions should help, but he hasn’t done much work in practice. If Bradley McDougald (back) can play, that would lessen the need for Diggs to try and rush back from a hamstring issue and in spite of limited experience with Seattle’s system. DE Ziggy Ansah is hoping to return to make life tougher for Schaub, but DT Quinton Jefferson is out. The Seahawks have major question marks on the offensive end with tackles Germain Ifedi and Duane Brown both listed as questionable. Russell Wilson has proven he doesn’t require much time to put together some magic, but it would help to be able to have at least a little time to work against a vulnerable Atlanta secondary.

    Jets at Jaguars (-6.5/40), 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    Sam Darnold aims to bounce back from his dreadful Monday night performance against a secondary that has held up decently since moving Jalen Ramsey to the Rams and wants to show they’ve turned the page. Gardner Minshew will look to improve on his last home start, a rough outing against New Orleans that cooled off some of the hype surrounding the sixth-round pick. The Jets briefly got LB C.J. Mosley back to lead their defense but have lost him to a groin injury again. CB Trumaine Johnson, who was picked on by the Jets earlier in the week, is dealing with an ankle injury and could be a game-time decision.

    Darnold complained of a toe injury that had him hobbling around, so we’ll see how careful New York is with its franchise quarterback, particularly considering its offensive line issues. Tackle Kelvin Beachum has already been ruled out. The Jags’ won’t have DT Marcell Dareus for the foreseeable future due to a core injury but have seen rookie Josh Allen emerge with sacks in three straight games and still have Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue anchoring the defensive front. Minshew has WR Marqise Lee back from a foot injury and saw Dede Westbrook return with a productive game last week. Jacksonville is hoping to be at .500 with Houston coming to town next week, which would restore their playoff hopes despite a rollercoaster ride of a first half of the season. Temperatures are set to be in the mid-80s in North Florida, and the threat of thunderstorms exists.

    Eagles at Bills (-1.5/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    It’s a good thing both of the quarterbacks in this one boast some of the NFL’s strongest arms since they may be dealing with wind gusts that could reach 40 miles per hour. Both Carson Wentz and Josh Allen can make plays with their feet. While Philly is certainly the more desperate team in this matchup, looking to get back to .500 and wash the stench of Sunday night’s brutal performance at the rival Cowboys, they’re nowhere near as healthy. Tackle Jason Peters will miss another game with a knee issue and a vulnerable defense can at least look forward to facing a team that hasn’t proven capable of consistently pushing the ball downfield. Given the wind factor, Philly could benefit from being able to keep everything in front of them.

    Philadelphia has had issues with its secondary, while Buffalo has been sound with elite CB Tre’Davious White leading the way. They do have to hold up this week with CB Kevin Johnson (neck), safety Kurt Coleman (hamstring) and LB Corey Thompson (ankle) all listed as questionable. Buffalo has surrendered more than 20 points only once this season and may have let its guard down some in last week’s 31-21 win over Miami in the first of three straight home games it is looking to use to solidify its status as a legitimate playoff threat. Last week’s win over the Dolphins was the first game Buffalo has participated to surpass the posted total.

    Panthers at 49ers (-4.5/41), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX:
    A well-rested Christian McCaffrey will look to continue a tremendous season by spoiling San Francisco’s perfect run as the Stanford product returns to town. He’s behind Dalvin Cook in yards per game and can pass him with a big day here, but the Niners’ defense has emerged as the driving force for their undefeated surge. LB Kwon Alexander and safety Jimmie Ward will look to contend with McCaffrey and an offense that Kyle Allen has looked sharp running as he’s produced a 4-0 mark in place of Cam Newton. Carolina has averaged 31.3 points and will playing a fourth road game in six weeks, coming off their bye after a 37-26 victory over the Bucs that was fueled by turnovers.

    Fires in Northern California are being fueled by hurricane-force winds that should be less of a factor by kickoff but could still make passing the ball downfield an issue, allowing both defenses to press up. Linebackers Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson will be tasked with hanging with keeping RB Matt Breida and TE George Kittle. Tackles Mike McGlinchey and Joe Staley remain out, as does fullback Kyle Juszczyk, which limits how complex Kyle Shanahan can get with is playcalling against the Carolina defense. The 49ers will have new WR Emmanuel Sanders in the mix and have cleared Dante Pettis (knee) and Deebo Samuel (groin), so Jimmy Garoppolo will have plenty of options to work with as he tries to find a more consistent form.

    Comment


    • Despite reports that he was not expected to play, Chargers' WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) is active for today's game in Chicago vs. the Bears.

      Pointspread: Bears -3.5
      Total: 41

      Comment


      • Falcons' QB Matt Ryan (ankle) will not play today at home vs. Seahawks. 38-year-old Matt Schaub will handle quarterback duties.

        Pointspread: Seahawks -7.5
        Total: 50





        NFL Betting Stats heading into Sunday of Wk 8:

        Road Teams: 66-39-2 ATS
        Home Teams: 39-66-2 ATS

        Favorites: 43-62-2 ATS
        Underdogs: 62-43-2 ATS

        Home Faves: 23-46-2 ATS
        Home Dogs: 16-20 ATS

        Road Faves: 20-16 ATS
        Road Dogs: 46-23-2 ATS

        O/U: 49-58

        Comment


        • SUNDAY, OCTOBER 27
          GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


          SEA at ATL 01:00 PM
          O 49.0 *****

          ARI at NO 01:00 PM
          NO -11.0 *****
          O 48.0 *****


          CIN at LAR 01:00 PM
          LAR -12.0 *****
          U 48.5

          NYJ at JAC 01:00 PM
          NYJ +7.0 *****

          PHI at BUF 01:00 PM
          PHI +1.0 *****
          U 39.5 *****


          LAC at CHI 01:00 PM
          LAC +3.5
          U 41.0 *****

          TB at TEN 01:00 PM
          TB +2.0 *****
          O 45.5

          DEN at IND 01:00 PM
          IND -6.0 *****
          U 42.0

          NYG at DET 01:00 PM
          NYG +6.5 *****
          Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-27-2019, 12:56 PM.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • LATER AFTERNOON BEST BETS:

            CAR at SF 04:05 PM

            SF -4.5 *****

            O 40.5 *****



            CLE at NE 04:25 PM

            CLE +10.0

            U 43.0 *****


            OAK at HOU 04:25 PM

            OAK +6.0 *****

            O 52.0 *****
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • GB at KC 08:20 PM

              KC +5.0 *****

              O 48.0 *****
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

                Lions 31, Giants 26:

                — Giants scored only 13 points on three trips into the red zone.
                — Big Blue scored with 1:19 left for the backdoor cover.
                — Giants lost their last four games, allowing 30.3 ppg.

                — Detroit opened scoring with a defensive TD 7:12 into the game.
                — Six of Lions’ seven games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
                — Giants converted 7-12 third down plays;; Detroit 8-14.

                Titans 27, Buccaneers 23
                — Evans caught 11 balls for 198 yards and two TD’s.
                — Bucs outgained Tennessee 389-246; their last five games went over total.
                — Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in last seven post-bye tilts, 5-8-3 in last 16 games as road dog

                — Titans drove 90 yards on 12 plays for winning TD with 6:55 left.
                — Tennessee scored 23+ points in its four wins, 17 or less in their losses.
                — Titans had two takeaways in first quarter; their first two TD drives were only 10-6 yards.

                Chargers 17, Bears 16:
                — Chargers’ first five drives: 16 plays, 34 yards, one first down.
                — Chargers’ last five drives: 28 plays, 179 yards, 17 points.
                — Under Lynn, Bolts are 7-2-1 ATS as road underdogs.

                — Chicago missed a 41-yard FG on last play of the game.
                — Bears scored only 16 points on five red zone drives.
                — Chicago outgained LA 388-231, running 77 plays, to 42 for Chargers.

                Seahawks 27, Falcons 20:
                — Seattle’s first five drives: 36 plays, 215 yards, 24 points.
                — Seahawks were +3 (3-0) in turnovers, won field position by 13 yards.
                — Seattle scored 28.5 ppg in winning all four of its road games.

                — Atlanta lost its last six games, has bye now; will they fire Quinn?
                — 38-year old Schaub threw for 460 yards; his last start was in 2015.
                — Game was 24-nil at the half; Falcons kicked FG for backdoor cover with 1:17 left.

                Jaguars 29, Jets 15:
                — Jets drove 93 yards on first drive; next four drives: 11 plays, minus-9 yards.
                — Gang Green converted only 11 of last 70 (15.7%) third down plays.
                — Jets’ last five losses were all by 14+ points- they’re 7-14-2 ATS in last 23 games as road underdogs.

                — Jaguars converted 8-17 third down plays, Jets only 2-9.
                — All four teams in AFC South are .500 or better.
                — Jaguars are +8 in turnovers in their four wins, minus-7 in losses.

                Eagles 31, Bills 13:
                — Eagles ran ball for 218 yards, outgained Buffalo 371-253.
                — First two Philly drives of 3rd quarter: eight plays, 135 yards, two TD’s.
                — Eagles were 8-15 on third down (7-21 in previous two games).

                — Allen completed only 16-34 passes, 4.1 yards/attempt.
                — First five games. Bills allowed total of 70 points; last two games: 21-31 points.
                — Buffalo’s last six drives: 20 plays, 32 yards, two first downs.

                Rams 24, Bengals 10:
                — Cincy got into LA territory on six of nine drives.
                — Bengals were only 6-18 on 3rd down, but 4-6 on 4th down.
                — Under is 4-1-1 in last six Cincy games.

                — Goff to Kupp: 7-10, 220 yards; Goff to everyone else: 10-21, 152 yards.
                — LA is 6-1 ATS in last seven games as a double digit favorite.
                — Rams’ first five drives: 40 plays, 363 yards, 24 points.

                Saints 31, Cardinals 9:
                — Cardinals had only 40 rushing yards; Murray ran only twice (11 yards)
                — Arizona’s last three losses were all by 17+ points.
                — Cardinals lost last five visits to Bourbon Street- their last win here was in ’96.

                — Brees returned to action, was 34-43/373 passing, with three TD’s.
                — New Orleans won/covered its last six games.
                — Saints outgained Arizona 510-237; first downs were 28-10.

                Colts 15, Broncos 13:
                — This was Denver’s third loss this season by two points.
                — Broncos scored only three TD’s on their last 35 drives.
                — Denver’s last six drives: 20 plays, 129 yards, five punts.

                — Vinatieri kicked a 51-yard FG with 0:22 left for the win.
                — Colts won five of their last six games.
                — Indy allowed 30-31 points in their two losses, 24 or less in their five wins.

                Texans 27, Raiders 24:
                — Oakland is 2-3 in its last five games, giving up 29.6 ppg.
                — Raiders improve to 5-14-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.— Hunter Renfrow scored his first NFL TD on a 65-yard pass; there is also a Hunter Renfroe who plays outfield for the San Diego Padres. Go figure.

                — Houston drove 75 yards in nine plays for winning score with 6:26 left.
                — Hopkins caught 11 balls for 109 yards
                — Texans ran 74 plays, to only 53 for Oakland.

                49ers 51, Panthers 13:
                — Despite the ugly loss, McCaffery still had 18 touches for 155 yards.
                — NFC South teams are 9-14 ATS outside the division.
                — At one point in this game a punt went out-of-bounds; a cheerleader caught the ball easily, while not dropping her pom-poms. Pretty impressive, actually.

                — Coleman touched ball 13 times, scored four TD’s.
                — 49ers are 7-0 for first time since 1990.
                — Niners won their last four games by combined score of 113-23.

                Patriots 27, Browns 13:
                — Cleveland turned ball over on three consecutive snaps in first half.
                — Browns are 2-5 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
                — Why only three games at 4:00? Need more viewing choices.

                — New England is 8-0, with one win by less than 14 points
                — Patriots are 31-14-3 ATS in last 48 games as a home favorite, 3-1 TY.
                — New England is 18-4 ATS in last 22 games as a double digit favorite.

                Packers 31, Chiefs 24:
                — Jones had 20 touches for 226 yards, including the GW 67-yard TD.
                — Green Bay drives in 2nd half: FG-TD-TD-ran out clock.
                — Packers are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite

                — Moore did well in his first KC start, only his 6th start since 2011.
                — Chiefs lost their 3rd straight home game; they host Minnesota next.
                — Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays; Pack 8-13, Chiefs 6-11
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • Monday, October 28, 2019
                  Time (ET) Away Home
                  8:15 PM Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers


                  **********************


                  NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

                  DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

                  10/27/2019.....14-9-0..........60.87%.............+20.50
                  10/24/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
                  10/21/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
                  10/20/2019.....13-8-1...........61.90%............+21.00
                  10/17/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00% .............-0.50
                  10/14/2019.......2-0-0.........100.00%.............+10.00
                  10/13/2019...11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
                  10/10/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%..............-11.00
                  10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
                  10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
                  10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
                  09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
                  09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
                  09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
                  09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
                  09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
                  09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
                  09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
                  09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
                  09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
                  09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
                  09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
                  09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

                  Totals............106-91-1.......... 53.80%........... +29.50


                  *****************************

                  BEST BETS:

                  DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


                  10/27/2019.............6 - 4..........+8.00..................4 - 4...........-2.00.............+6.00
                  10/24/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
                  10/21/2019.............1 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
                  10/20/2019.............8 - 4..........+18.00................5 - 5............-2.50............+15.50
                  10/17/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0............+5.00............-0.50
                  10/14/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0............+5.00.............+10.00
                  10/13/2019.............6 - 5...........+2.50.................5 - 6.............-3.00.............-0.50
                  10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................0 - 1.............-5.50.............-11.00
                  10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
                  10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50................6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
                  10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
                  09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
                  09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00................3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
                  09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
                  09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00................4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
                  09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
                  09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00................1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
                  09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00................7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
                  09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
                  09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50................2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
                  09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50................8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
                  09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

                  Totals..................53 - 51............-10.00.............52 - 40 ..........+44.00............+34.00
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • Monday’s 6-pack

                    Top six picks for Week 8 in Westgate Super Contest:

                    6) Bills -1.5 (691)- L

                    5) Eagles +1.5 (697)- W

                    4) Buccaneers +2.5 (705)- L

                    3) Seahawks -6.5 (920)- W

                    2) Indianapolis -5.5 (1,409)- L

                    1) Carolina +5.5 (1,418)- L

                    2019 record: 25-22-1


                    Quote of the Day
                    “We have more in common than what separates us.”
                    The late Elijah Cummings. RIP, sir

                    Monday’s quiz
                    Before moving to Washington, where did the Nationals call home?

                    Last Tuesday’s quiz
                    Lamar Jackson played his college football at Louisville.

                    Monday’s quiz
                    There are no left-handed quarterbacks in the NFL right now.

                    ********************

                    Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

                    Lions 31, Giants 26:

                    — Giants scored only 13 points on three trips into the red zone.
                    — Big Blue scored with 1:19 left for the backdoor cover.
                    — Giants lost their last four games, allowing 30.3 ppg.

                    — Detroit opened scoring with a defensive TD 7:12 into the game.
                    — Six of Lions’ seven games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
                    — Giants converted 7-12 third down plays;; Detroit 8-14.

                    Titans 27, Buccaneers 23
                    — Evans caught 11 balls for 198 yards and two TD’s.
                    — Bucs outgained Tennessee 389-246; their last five games went over total.
                    — Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in last seven post-bye tilts, 5-8-3 in last 16 games as road dog

                    — Titans drove 90 yards on 12 plays for winning TD with 6:55 left.
                    — Tennessee scored 23+ points in its four wins, 17 or less in their losses.
                    — Titans had two takeaways in first quarter; their first two TD drives were only 10-6 yards.

                    Chargers 17, Bears 16:
                    — Chargers’ first five drives: 16 plays, 34 yards, one first down.
                    — Chargers’ last five drives: 28 plays, 179 yards, 17 points.
                    — Under Lynn, Bolts are 7-2-1 ATS as road underdogs.

                    — Chicago missed a 41-yard FG on last play of the game.
                    — Bears scored only 16 points on five red zone drives.
                    — Chicago outgained LA 388-231, running 77 plays, to 42 for Chargers.

                    Seahawks 27, Falcons 20:
                    — Seattle’s first five drives: 36 plays, 215 yards, 24 points.
                    — Seahawks were +3 (3-0) in turnovers, won field position by 13 yards.
                    — Seattle scored 28.5 ppg in winning all four of its road games.

                    — Atlanta lost its last six games, has bye now; will they fire Quinn?
                    — 38-year old Schaub threw for 460 yards; his last start was in 2015.
                    — Game was 24-nil at the half; Falcons kicked FG for backdoor cover with 1:17 left.

                    Jaguars 29, Jets 15:
                    — Jets drove 93 yards on first drive; next four drives: 11 plays, minus-9 yards.
                    — Gang Green converted only 11 of last 70 (15.7%) third down plays.
                    — Jets’ last five losses were all by 14+ points- they’re 7-14-2 ATS in last 23 games as road underdogs.

                    — Jaguars converted 8-17 third down plays, Jets only 2-9.
                    — All four teams in AFC South are .500 or better.
                    — Jaguars are +8 in turnovers in their four wins, minus-7 in losses.

                    Eagles 31, Bills 13:
                    — Eagles ran ball for 218 yards, outgained Buffalo 371-253.
                    — First two Philly drives of 3rd quarter: eight plays, 135 yards, two TD’s.
                    — Eagles were 8-15 on third down (7-21 in previous two games).

                    — Allen completed only 16-34 passes, 4.1 yards/attempt.
                    — First five games. Bills allowed total of 70 points; last two games: 21-31 points.
                    — Buffalo’s last six drives: 20 plays, 32 yards, two first downs.

                    Rams 24, Bengals 10:
                    — Cincy got into LA territory on six of nine drives.
                    — Bengals were only 6-18 on 3rd down, but 4-6 on 4th down.
                    — Under is 4-1-1 in last six Cincy games.

                    — Goff to Kupp: 7-10, 220 yards; Goff to everyone else: 10-21, 152 yards.
                    — LA is 6-1 ATS in last seven games as a double digit favorite.
                    — Rams’ first five drives: 40 plays, 363 yards, 24 points.

                    Saints 31, Cardinals 9:
                    — Cardinals had only 40 rushing yards; Murray ran only twice (11 yards)
                    — Arizona’s last three losses were all by 17+ points.
                    — Cardinals lost last five visits to Bourbon Street- their last win here was in ’96.

                    — Brees returned to action, was 34-43/373 passing, with three TD’s.
                    — New Orleans won/covered its last six games.
                    — Saints outgained Arizona 510-237; first downs were 28-10.

                    Colts 15, Broncos 13:
                    — This was Denver’s third loss this season by two points.
                    — Broncos scored only three TD’s on their last 35 drives.
                    — Denver’s last six drives: 20 plays, 129 yards, five punts.

                    — Vinatieri kicked a 51-yard FG with 0:22 left for the win.
                    — Colts won five of their last six games.
                    — Indy allowed 30-31 points in their two losses, 24 or less in their five wins.

                    Texans 27, Raiders 24:
                    — Oakland is 2-3 in its last five games, giving up 29.6 ppg.
                    — Raiders improve to 5-14-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.— Hunter Renfrow scored his first NFL TD on a 65-yard pass; there is also a Hunter Renfroe who plays outfield for the San Diego Padres. Go figure.

                    — Houston drove 75 yards in nine plays for winning score with 6:26 left.
                    — Hopkins caught 11 balls for 109 yards
                    — Texans ran 74 plays, to only 53 for Oakland.

                    49ers 51, Panthers 13:
                    — Despite the ugly loss, McCaffery still had 18 touches for 155 yards.
                    — NFC South teams are 9-14 ATS outside the division.
                    — At one point in this game a punt went out-of-bounds; a cheerleader caught the ball easily, while not dropping her pom-poms. Pretty impressive, actually.

                    — Coleman touched ball 13 times, scored four TD’s.
                    — 49ers are 7-0 for first time since 1990.
                    — Niners won their last four games by combined score of 113-23.

                    Patriots 27, Browns 13:
                    — Cleveland turned ball over on three consecutive snaps in first half.
                    — Browns are 2-5 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
                    — Why only three games at 4:00? Need more viewing choices.

                    — New England is 8-0, with one win by less than 14 points
                    — Patriots are 31-14-3 ATS in last 48 games as a home favorite, 3-1 TY.
                    — New England is 18-4 ATS in last 22 games as a double digit favorite.

                    Packers 31, Chiefs 24:
                    — Jones had 20 touches for 226 yards, including the GW 67-yard TD.
                    — Green Bay drives in 2nd half: FG-TD-TD-ran out clock.
                    — Packers are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite

                    — Moore did well in his first KC start, only his 6th start since 2011.
                    — Chiefs lost their 3rd straight home game; they host Minnesota next.
                    — Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays; Pack 8-13, Chiefs 6-11
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • NFL Week 9 opening odds and early action: Patriots-Ravens quickly draws two-way play
                      Patrick Everson

                      Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have put together a 13-game win streak. New England opened -5 at Baltimore, the Ravens immediately got bet at +5 and +4.5, then New England drew a $31,045 wager.

                      NFL Week 9 is on deck, and the Sunday night game is already on the move. We check in on the opening odds and early action for that matchup and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

                      New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+5)

                      Defending Super Bowl champion New England hasn’t lost since the middle of last December, going 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS. In Week 8, the Patriots (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 27-13 as 9.5-point favorites.

                      Baltimore leads the AFC North at 5-2 SU after winning its last three before a Week 8 bye. In Week 7, the Ravens (2-5 ATS) snapped a five-game spread-covering slide, knocking off Seattle 30-16 as 3-point road underdogs.

                      “We opened Patriots -5 and saw money come in on Baltimore at +5 and +4.5,” Murray told Covers on Sunday night. “Then we took a bet for $31,045 on the Patriots -4. The Ravens will be a huge-need game for the books everywhere next Sunday night, especially if the afternoon games are chalky.”

                      Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (no line)

                      Kansas City was without Patrick Mahomes in the Week 8 Sunday nighter, but Matt Moore and Co. gave Green Bay all it could handle. The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) scored 17 straight second-quarter points to erase a 14-0 first-quarter deficit and were in it the rest of the way, losing 31-24 as 5-point home ‘dogs.

                      Minnesota returns from its bye week looking to build on a four-game win streak. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went off as hefty 16.5-point Week 7 home faves against Washington and managed a 19-9 victory, halting a three-game spread-covering streak.

                      With Mahomes’ Week 9 status unclear, The SuperBook held off on posting the opening number for this game. But Murray offered a little insight into where the line might land if Moore is still under center.

                      “It would depend a lot on the result of (the Sunday night) game and how K.C. and Moore look without Mahomes,” Murray said during the Packers-Chiefs tilt, in which Green Bay was a 5-point road chalk. “But Minnesota is considered slightly better than Green Bay, so it would be something close to what Packers-Chiefs was. Maybe a touch higher, unless K.C. wins, then a touch lower.”

                      That being the case, Murray said if Mahomes returns, the Chiefs will be short home favorites.

                      San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)

                      San Francisco remained in elite company through eight weeks, sticking with New England as the only unbeaten outfits. The 49ers (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) steamrolled Carolina 51-13 as 4.5-point favorites Sunday.

                      Arizona is better than expected this year, with a rookie coach and quarterback, but its three-game SU and ATS win streak ended in Week 8. The Cardinals went to New Orleans as 12.5-point pups and were dealt a 31-9 setback.

                      “We opened 49ers -7.5 and are still there,” Murray said. “Arizona will be one of the biggest needs of the week for us in the NFL. A ton of moneyline parlay and teaser wagers will start with the 49ers.”

                      Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

                      Philadelphia got a much-needed Week 8 win, snapping a two-game skid to get back to .500. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) shuffled over Buffalo 31-13 laying 1 point on the road Sunday.

                      Chicago looks little like the squad that last season went 12-4 SU and ATS, leading the league in spread-covers. The Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) held a 16-7 third-quarter advantage against the Los Angeles Chargers, but didn’t score again in a 17-16 loss laying 3.5 points at home Sunday.

                      “We opened Eagles -4.5 and have been bet up to -5,” Murray said. “It’s hard to imagine people wanting to bet on Chicago right now.”
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • Close Calls - Week 8
                        Joe Nelson

                        Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 8 of the NFL regular season. Most of this week’s games apply as if you won in Week 8 on sides, congratulations, almost every game could have gone the other way with many of those games certainly deserving of an opposite spread result.

                        Minnesota Vikings (-17) 19, Washington Redskins 9 (41½):
                        There were eight scoring plays on Thursday night, but seven were field goals as Minnesota posted more than twice as many yards but couldn’t pull away. Washington trailed by just seven late in the third quarter and got the ball back with a stop on 4th-and-1 just outside of Minnesota field goal range. Two plays later, Dwayne Haskins was intercepted to set-up a Dan Bailey field goal early in the fourth quarter to put Minnesota up by 10. A late touchdown would be enough for most Vikings backers on a spread that opened at -14½ and only hit -17 very late in the day before kickoff. The Vikings had the opportunity and attempted to score despite Washington being out of timeouts late, but ultimately wound up stopped on 4th-and-4 from the Washington 7-yard-line in the final minute.

                        Detroit Lions (-6) 31, New York Giants 26 (49):
                        The Lions had a 14-0 lead early, but Detroit has made a habit of blowing leads this season. Sure enough the Giants scored the next two touchdowns, but missed a PAT to trail by one. The Lions would stretch the edge to four by halftime and led by five through three quarters after an exchange of touchdowns in the third with the Giants failing going for two. Detroit hit a big play early in the fourth quarter to lead by 12 before New York was stopped on downs on back-to-back possessions. Detroit would go backwards on both late possessions and getting the ball back just ahead of the two-minute warning, the Giants were a backdoor threat. A 25-yard pass interference call put New York in business and with 1:19 remaining the Giants found the end zone. Down six, New York matched the closing number and opted to kick the important PAT to lose by just five.

                        Tennessee Titans (-2) 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 (45½):
                        The Buccaneers have appealing numbers but the consistent turnovers stand out and they came to bite in this contest with Tampa Bay posting a 389-246 yardage edge in a narrow loss. The Titans led by two at halftime after the Buccaneers went for two after a score right before the break and came up short. The Buccaneers would get eight on an early third quarter score however to lead by six. Tennessee added a late third quarter field goal to trail by three, but forced a punt with Tampa Bay unwilling to go for it on 4th-and-1 in its own territory. The Titans then nearly doubled their offensive production for the game with a 12-play, 90-yard drive to deliver the go-ahead score, slipping past the slight favorite spread with 6:55 to go as well. Tampa Bay had three more possessions that ended in a fumble, failing on 4th-and-1 in Tennessee territory, and finally a deep pass from Jameis Winston intercepted at the Tennessee 25-yard-line.

                        Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 17, Chicago Bears 16 (41):
                        The Bears commanded this game in the numbers, but settled for three first half field goals while the Chargers got a touchdown. The scoring mode flipped in the third quarter as the Bears were able to find the end zone and led 16-10 as a slight home favorite after a Chargers field goal late in the third quarter. Mitchell Trubisky fumbled in Chicago territory on the next possession and the Chargers were able to go 26 yards for a touchdown in three plays to lead by one. Chicago had a productive drive to reach the Los Angeles 37-yard-line, but Trubisky took a 3rd down sack and the Bears had to punt. The defense got the stop to give the Bears another chance and rather than taking a few shots to get a touchdown or get closer, the Bears took a knee in the final minute and watched Eddy Pinero miss left from 41 yards.

                        Seattle Seahawks (-7) 27, Atlanta Falcons 20 (48½):
                        The closing line says seven but that wasn’t an overly common price on this game. Seattle opened at -3 and held at -3½ early in the week before number jumped with Matt Ryan ruled out. Seahawks -8 was typical over the weekend as results wound up varying on this game. Multiple outcomes didn’t seem possible as Seattle led 24-0 at halftime, but Matt Schaub would prove to be a productive backup getting the Falcons 11 points in the third quarter. A Seattle field goal with about six minutes left in the game made the lead 16 and seemed safe, but Atlanta went the distance in fewer than three minutes and suddenly was within 10, failing on a two-point conversion that mattered for many. In many ways that might have been a worse outcome for Seattle backers as with a two-score lead, the Seahawks could still relax and they punted back while taking just 27 seconds off the clock. Schaub and the Falcons managed the clock well and kicked a second down field goal without using a timeout to trail by seven while still leaving more than a minute on the clock, giving many late-week Falcons backers a win. The on-side kick went out of bounds to end any further threat as Seattle held on and the total that fell throughout the week stayed just ‘under’.

                        Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) 29, New York Jets 15 (40):
                        Jacksonville dominated this game in most ways and led 22-7 after a late third quarter field goal. An early fourth quarter touchdown with a successful two-point conversion suddenly put the Jets down just seven to land even with the common weekend number though early in the week Jacksonville opened at -4½ and was -6 to -6½ for long stretches. The Jaguars gained 30 yards on the next possession but had to punt. Hopes for a New York comeback were short-lived however with a penalty, a negative rushing play, and an interception on three snaps for the Jets. On a short field, Jacksonville found the end zone on 3rd-and-goal to go up by 14. Sam Darnold was intercepted across midfield on the next possession for the Jets while another late series ended on downs.

                        Los Angeles Rams (-12) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 10 (48½):
                        In London, the Rams got more they bargained for with the winless Bengals with a 10-10 tie late in the second quarter before a trick play gave Los Angeles a 65-yard touchdown. Out of halftime, the Rams added another touchdown to slip past the heavy favorite spread. The Bengals appeared ready to answer reaching the edge for field goal range before going backwards and needing to punt on 4th-and-long. Cincinnati held the Rams to four straight punts the rest of the game, but two late drives deep into Los Angeles territory came up empty with a field goal not being worth considering given the time and score. The Bengals couldn’t convert from the 6-yard-line with about five minutes remaining and on a late drive appeared to get the underdog cover with a touchdown with eight seconds to go. On review, the play was overturned and the Bengals came up incomplete on its last shot from inside the 10. Winning by 14 with only 24 points, Rams backers escaped with a very fortunate cover in a game where the Bengals had more than 400 total yards, but just 10 points.

                        New Orleans Saints (-12½) 31, Arizona Cardinals 9 (48):
                        Arizona trailed New Orleans just 10-6 at halftime but opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 form its own 30 early in the third quarter. The aggressive play was commendable as Kliff Kingsbury is breaking the mold, but the move backfired with the Saints adding a short-field touchdown to go up 17-6 a few plays later. Arizona would add a field goal and through three quarters both teams had three scores, but Arizona had only field goals. Still down one score, Arizona couldn’t get a big third down stop early in the fourth quarter and the Saints went up by 15. About halfway through the final frame, the Cardinals reached the New Orleans 27-yard-line, but a field goal did no good at that point and 3rd-and-2 and 4th-and-2 attempts to extend the series were stopped. A deflated Cardinals defense gave up back-to-back big plays as the Saints put the game away with another touchdown with five minutes to go.

                        Houston Texans (-5½) 27, Oakland Raiders 24 (52):
                        The total wound up with mixed results on this game landing right on 51 where the number sat for big chunks of the week. Oakland led this game 21-13 as a Houston win didn’t seem in play but the Texans scored in the first few seconds of the fourth quarter and just went for one to trail 21-20. The Raiders managed a field goal to go up by four before a wild sequence with Deshaun Watson delivering a go-ahead touchdown pass but appearing to be seriously injured. Up three, the Houston defense forced an Oakland punt and was a serious threat to steal the cover, but Oakland exhausted its timeouts and Houston with Watson still in the game, was ultimately able to take a knee well across midfield after the two-minute warning without needing to try to advance further or consider a late field goal.

                        New England Patriots (-10) 27, Cleveland Browns 13 (43):
                        Double-digit spreads in the NFL are rarely out of play as while the Patriots were in complete control after 17-0 first quarter, a Browns cover lurked as a real possibility. Down 27-10, Cleveland went for it on 4th-and-16 deep in its own territory and went further backwards. Dealt a 14-yard field, the Patriots went backwards as well and missed on a 34-yard field goal with about four minutes remaining. A touchdown would have trimmed the margin to 10, but the Browns came up just short of a 1st down on a late series in New England territory and after a false start pushed it to 4th-and-6, they opted to kick a field goal to trail by 13. The Browns would get the ball back with about a minute to go and picked up a big gain with a pass interference call but a sack followed. With no timeouts left and the clock would run out a few plays later with the game staying just ‘under’ as well.

                        Green Bay Packers (-5) 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24 (48):
                        A quick 14-0 lead for the Packers was erased in the second quarter as the Chiefs got a good performance from Matt Moore and the defense created some pressure. The Sunday night game was tied 17-17 through three quarters and 24-24 with nine minutes to go. The Packers scored on a 67-yard short pass and run from Aaron Jones to lead by seven but more than eight minutes remained. The Chiefs reached the 40-yard-line and opted to punt on 4th-and-3 with more than five minutes remaining and three timeouts left, a decision it isn’t clear they would make with Patrick Mahomes. Green Bay was able to covert a pair of third downs and run out the remaining clock for the win and narrow cover.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • Betting Recap - Week 8
                          Joe Williams

                          National Football League Week 8 Results

                          Wager Favorites-Underdogs
                          Straight Up 12-2
                          Against the Spread 7-7

                          Wager Home-Away
                          Straight Up 11-3
                          Against the Spread 6-8

                          Wager Totals (O/U)
                          Over-Under 6-8

                          National Football League Year-to-Date Results

                          Wager Favorites-Underdogs
                          Straight Up 75-41-1
                          Against the Spread 50-65-2

                          Wager Home-Away
                          Straight Up 56-60-1
                          Against the Spread 43-72-2

                          Wager Totals (O/U)
                          Over-Under 55-61-1

                          The largest underdogs to win straight up
                          Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) at Bears, 17-16

                          The largest favorite to cover
                          Saints (-12.5) vs. Cardinals, 31-9
                          Rams (-11.5) vs. Bengals (London), 24-10
                          Patriots (-10) vs. Browns, 27-13
                          Jaguars (-7) vs. Jets, 29-15
                          Packers (-5.5) at Chiefs, 31-24
                          49ers (-4) vs. Panthers, 51-13

                          Razor Thin Margin

                          -- The Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) finally won one of those close games, taking advantage of the kicking woes of the Chicago Bears, 17-16. PK Eddy Pineiro was the hero earlier this season, sinking the Denver Broncos on a kick at the buzzer in the Mile High City. The Bears thought they had found their guy after years of ugly kicking performances, lowlighted by the playoff meltdown of Cody Parkey.

                          The Bolts have had their shortcomings, too, especially in close games. It's cliche' to say it, but football, in particular professional football, really is a game of inches. The Chargers found that out last week when they were stuffed at the 1-yard line, fumbling away a win on the road against the Tennessee Titans, much to the dismay of Chargers bettors holding a +2 ticket. The week before they were beaten by one score by an undrafted rookie QB. The week before that, they lost by one score. In Week 3, they lost by one score. In Week 2, they lost by a field goal. In week 1, they won in overtime by one score. Unfortunately for the Bolts, they won just two of the first seven games, so they really needed this, and they were facing a team in the exact same boat. They finally found an opponent with worse luck they they have.

                          For the Chargers, not only are close games inevitable, but low-scoring games are inevitable, too. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven, and last week's 'over' hit by just a half-point, although they should have had a touchdown in the closing moments.

                          London Fog

                          -- The Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) weren't feeling sorry for the Cincinnati Bengals, and they weren't about to play down to the competition. They won and cover 24-10, although the offense was a bit sluggish at times. Still, the defense showed up and kept the Bengals winless at 0-8. Cincinnati hits the halfway point with a goose egg in the win column while allowing 21 or more points in each game. They're just 3-5 ATS, failing to cover in back-to-back games all season. The 'under' is also 5-2-1 so far for Cincinnati, who will join the Rams in a bye in Week 9 after the trip back overseas.

                          Total Recall

                          -- The highest total on the board was the Oakland Raiders-Houston Texans (52.5) battle, and it was a close call. One decision might have changed everything. Down 21-13, the Texans scored a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Instead of going for two, head coach Bill O'Brien elected to kick the extra point. With plenty of time on the clock, it was probably the correct decision, but for bettors it changes things. Perhaps it didn't. We'll never know now. The game ended up 27-24, and just 'under'.

                          The second-highest total was the New York Giants-Detroit Lions (49.5) battle, and if you were holding a Lions (-6) ticket, it was a bad beat. RB Saquon Barkley gave Giants bettors (+6) and fantasy owners a gift touchdown with 1:19 to go in regulation, needing an onside kick for a chance at a win. That didn't happen, as it hardly ever does now, but the game was already well 'over' before that late score.

                          The next highest totals were the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49) and Arizona Cardinals-New Orleans Saints (48.5) games. The Falcons were driving down the field, down 27-17, and needing two scores late, they elected to take the field goal first, then try to get the onside kick (again, you know how that works out) and go get the touchdown. 'Over' bettors, and those holding Seattle (-7.5) tickets were screaming "NO!!!" in unison, but a PK Matt Bryant field goal was made and the onside kick wasn't...

                          In the Saints game, people were concerned that QB Drew Brees (thumb) returning for the first time since Week 2 would upset things, maybe make the offense a bit rusty. He was just fine. It was the Cardinals who looked like they've been off for weeks after the 31-9 loss.

                          -- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Philadelphia Eagles-Buffalo Bills (39) game. Buffalo was the last team to see an 'over' result, hitting the 'under' in each of their first five. Now, they're on an 'over' streak in the past two outings. The New York Jets-Jacksonville Jaguars (40) game also went over by four points, and in the Carolina Panthers-San Francisco 49ers (40.5) game saw the over taken care of by the home team all by themselves, 51-13.

                          -- The 'over/under' split 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 8, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins-Pittsburgh Steelers (43) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 6-18 (25.0%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the Green Bay Packers-Kansas City Chiefs (48) game finally was a SNF game with an over - barely - 31-24.

                          Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

                          In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

                          In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

                          In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

                          In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

                          Injury Report

                          -- There was really only one 'major' injury, but it's a big one for a contender. Texans DE J.J. Watt (pectoral) left Sunday's game against the Raiders, and he immediately went to the hospital. He tweeted out Sunday night indicating his season is over, and sources said has a torn pec. Not good.

                          Looking Ahead

                          -- The unbeaten 49ers hit the road to face the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. Will we get a trick or a treat on Halloween night? The 49ers have covered five of their past seven, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. They open as more than a touchdown favorite. For the Cards, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine appearances on TNF. Arizona is also 4-9 ATS in the past 13 tries at home against San Francisco.

                          -- The Watt-less Texans will travel to meet the Jaguars overseas in London. The 'over' is 2-1 in the three previous London games so far, with the Week 8 Bengals-Rams battle at Wembley Stadium going under. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the AFC South, while the Jags are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. The underdog has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series.

                          -- The Jets and Dolphins will meet in South Florida, and the one-win Jets will be looking to keep the Fins winless. The Jets lost and failed to cover in NE Florida in Week 8 in the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, and they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 road games. New York is also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 AFC East battles, including their 33-0 whitewashing against the Patriots last Monday night. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their past five at home, though, and 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall. In this series, the Jets are 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 trips to Miami, so that's probably the way to go.

                          -- In the fourth and final divisional game on the schedule we get the Cowboys and Giants squaring off on Monday Night Football. Dallas has an impressive 13-3 ATS mark in the past 16 games inside the NFC East, but they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 appearances on MNF. The G-Men are 1-5 ATS in the past six at home, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. However, Dallas is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • MNF - Dolphins at Steelers
                            Tony Mejia

                            Miami at Pittsburgh (-14, 43.5), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

                            Every season, we seem to get a couple of those games that leave us wondering how they were included among the NFL’s marquee Monday night offerings. Don’t they want us to watch?

                            There was no way to envision that Ben Roethlisberger would be sidelined for the season, leaving the Steelers (2-4 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) in dire straits. The Dolphins (0-6, 2-4) opted to turn themselves into one of the worst teams in league history once the schedule was already announced, executing their fire sale in the preseason to suck the life out of their remaining players.

                            Still, someone should apologize for sticking the nation with Miami at Pittsburgh as if it were ever worthy of such a stage. The NBA should send thank you notes and has to be pleased with its decision to still have their free preview of League Pass in place as it will likely attract some eyeballs it may not have gathered if the night’s game were, say, Packers at Chiefs.

                            The last time these teams met on Monday Night Football, the Steelers won 3-0, scoring with 20 seconds left. They were a heavy favorite that night too in a QB matchup that featured Big Ben against John Beck. Let's cross our fingers that we don't see a revival of that type of game from 12 years ago.

                            The on-field product should ideally benefit from both of these teams coming in after arguably their top performances of the season.

                            The Steelers went out to Los Angeles in Week 6 and took a 24-0 lead on the Chargers before holding on for a 24-17 win as a six-point underdog (+235 ML) in a stadium packed with fans clad in black and yellow. Despite undrafted rookie Delvin “Duck” Hodges making his first pro start, the Steelers’ defense capitalized on an early L.A. turnover and overwhelmed Philip Rivers and his unit over the first three quarters before holding on for a 24-17 win.

                            Pittsburgh, which is 3-0-1 against the number in its last four, was on its bye last week, allowing Mason Rudolph to heal effectively enough from a concussion to reclaim his starting job.

                            Miami hosted Buffalo eight days ago and led in the second quarter for the first time all season, actually holding an advantage into the fourth. It then surrendered 22 points in a 31-21 win that doesn’t properly indicate how close the game was since Bills’ DB Micah Hyde took an onside kick into the end zone for the game’s final points with 1:38 left. The Dolphins covered a 17-point spread and have actually cashed in each of the last few weeks.

                            First-year head coach Brian Flores has been put in an awful position by the organization but has managed to put together a team that now looks willing to compete after appearing dispirited through the first few weeks. Guys openly asked out after the front office traded a number of their leaders and most talented players just before the regular-season began, clearly turning the page and attempting to position themselves to finish with the league’s worst record.

                            In ending up a successful two-point conversion shy of beating visiting Washington in Week 6 after nearly erasing all of a 17-3 fourth-quarter deficit, Miami nearly deviated from its tank job thanks to the effectiveness of backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The veteran came on for an inconsistent Josh Rosen and generated offense with some accurate passes downfield. In a puzzling move given the state of the franchise, Flores awarded Fitzpatrick back the job he lost entering Week 3. He correctly believes that gives the Dolphins their best chance to win, which goes against the point of the entire season.

                            Free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, one of the players who was exiled after being unhappy with the team’s direction, will now lineup against Miami as a key member of the Steelers’ secondary, having already picked off a pass and forced a fumble. The No. 11 pick in the ’18 NFL Draft wasn’t thrilled with being a rover in Flores’ alignment and hated playing for a team that was essentially mailing it in, so he requested a deal and ended up being moved in a package that includes the Steelers’ first-round pick in April.

                            Pittsburgh is certainly in a state of flux due to the offseason cutting of ties with receiver Antonio Brown on the heels of a well-publicized contract dispute with RB Le’Veon Bell, now with the Jets. Roethlisberger’s season-ending elbow injury after a 28-26 Week 2 loss in Seattle compounded matters, but the acquisition of Fitzgerald and the win over the Chargers on the heels of an OT setback against the rival Ravens suggests the Steelers have a lot of fight left. This is the first of three straight home games, so holding serve as a heavy favorite against Miami will put them in position to get back to .500 on Sunday against the visiting Colts.

                            Following an 0-3 start, that would be quite an accomplishment given the adversity to date. Rudolph hasn’t taken the field in over three weeks after being knocked out cold by Baltimore safety Earl Thomas but put together a solid run as a starter, playing effectively in a 24-20 loss at San Francisco that the Steelers covered in before beating the Bengals 27-3 on Sept. 30 in a Monday night debut that featured 24-for-28 passing and TD tosses to James Conner and rookie Diontae Johnson.

                            Although he’s operated mostly out of shotgun and hasn’t been asked to run the no-huddle look that has become customary under Roethlisberger, Rudolph has looked like one of the most effective members of the 2017 quarterback draft class featuring Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Rosen.

                            The third-round pick will be trying to take advantage of a Dolphins’ inexperienced secondary that has contributed to surrendering 417 yards per game, which ranked 30th of 32 entering the week. Rudolph has seven TD passes and has been picked off twice, so this will be an opportunity for him to pick up where he left off before taking a vicious hit and leaving Heinz Field via cart on Oct. 6. He has no memory of the incident.

                            While Hodges got the job done in L.A., Pittsburgh’s realistic chances to win the AFC North and return to the playoffs for the fifth straight season hinge on Rudolph staying healthy and improving, so his performance here is what most bears watching in this MNF dud. Inclement weather won’t be a factor with a clear night featuring temperatures in the mid-50s expected.

                            TOTAL TALK

                            The total on this game opened at 43 and most books are holding 43 ½ as of Monday morning. The Steelers and Dolphins have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season, producing 4-2 records in their first six games.VegasInsider totals expert Chris David offered up his total thoughts on the Monday night matchup.

                            “The Dolphins offense has shown a little more pop recently with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback but he’s still hit or miss and can often kill drives with key turnovers, something we saw twice in last week’s loss at Buffalo," said David. Pittsburgh will be playing with rest and this is the first of three straight games at Heinz Field, so avoiding a letdown shouldn’t be in the cards. The Steelers have scored 20-plus points in five consecutive games since losing 33-3 at New England in Week 1, but the defense has helped that cause with touchdowns and creating short tracks.”

                            Bettors should note that Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 in its last five games off the bye and the Steelers have averaged 25.8 PPG. Digging into those numbers further, the Steelers played two of those games at home and they scored 33 and 32 points.

                            “Pittsburgh has thrived under the lights at home, averaging 32.6 PPG in their last five from Heinz and that includes a 27-3 domination over Cincy in Week 4 on a Monday night," said David. "The so-called sharps and pros started buying Miami with the points early and while the Dolphins have covered two straight games, I’m not sold. The defense is terrible and the front-seven has been abysmal. They only have seven sacks in six games and while I’m not high on the backup QBs for Pittsburgh, I expect the chains to get moved tonight."

                            The Team Total on Pittsburgh is a little rich at 28 ½ or 29 depending where you shop," David added, "but I expect the Steelers to hit 30-plus points here."

                            Going back to last season, the Dolphins have watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their last four road games and the defense 36.3 PPG.

                            LINE MOVEMENT

                            Miami Dolphins

                            Projected season win total: 4.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
                            Odds to win AFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 125/1 to 2000/1
                            Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 250/1 to 25000/1
                            Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 500/1 to 50000/1

                            Pittsburgh Steelers
                            Projected season win total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
                            Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 13/10 to 15/4
                            Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 50/1
                            Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 18/1 to 100/1

                            ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

                            Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

                            "Early sharp action came in on Miami but it seems like there are various opinions on this one. Right now (Sunday night), we'd need the Steelers," said Berg, whose terrific observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "There probably won't be as much volume as a great matchup, but the Steelers are popular and should generate interest."

                            INJURY CONCERNS

                            Although he's not injured, RB Kenyan Drake didn't travel with the Dolphins to Pittsburgh and is to be traded to Arizona as the team's fire sale continues. Mark Walton and Kalen Ballage are expected to get the bulk of the work at running back. Safety Reshad Jones (chest) won't play but corner Xavien Howard will return. Center Daniel Kilgore (knee) has also been ruled out.

                            The bye week came at a great time for Pittsburgh, which lists LBs T.J. Watt (abdominal) and Mark Barron (hamstring) as probable and will also get back fullback Roosevelt Nix (knee). Top backs James Conner (quad) and Jaylen Samuels (knee) are probable too, as is WR James Washington. DE Stephon Tuitt (pectoral) remains out.

                            RECENT MEETINGS

                            (Steelers 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS last eight, OVER 5-3)


                            1/8/17 Steelers 30-12 vs. Dolphins (PIT -11, 47.5)
                            10/16/16 Dolphins 30-15 vs. Steelers (MIA +7.5, 40.5)
                            12/8/13 Dolphins 34-28 at Steelers (MIA +3, 40.5)
                            10/24/10 Steelers 23-22 at Dolphins (MIA +3, 40.5)
                            1/3/10 Steelers 30-24 at Dolphins (PIT -3, 46)
                            11/26/07 Steelers 3-0 vs. Dolphins (MIA +16, 38.5)
                            9/7/06 Steelers 28-17 vs. Dolphins (PIT -1.5, 34.5)
                            9/26/04 Steelers 13-3 at Dolphins (PIT +2.5, 31)

                            NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

                            The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 currently has the Steelers as a pick'em against Indianapolis, which comes in atop the AFC South and on a three-game winning streak. The Dolphns return home to face AFC East rival New York. The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in South Florida.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                            • Bettors strike back in Week 8
                              October 28, 2019
                              By Micah Roberts

                              The favorites went only 7-6 against-the-spread In Week 8 of NFL action but it was the popular public favorites that sent Nevada sportsbooks to a range from losing to break-even or only a small winner.

                              The public parlay momentum from the teams like the 49ers, Patriots, and Rams covering paying out at 6-to-1 odds all put the books in an uphill hill to climb to get out of the negative and then the popular Packers playing at the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes, laying up to -6 and winning 31-24, pounded the final nail in the coffin for most books. That popular four-teamer paid 10-to-1 odds at most places and had dug an insurmountable grave.

                              “It hasn’t been a good day,” MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said prior to kickoff of the late game. “The parlays have really hurt us with the popular favorites cashing.”

                              It was the same story around most Las Vegas operations.

                              “Big risk tonight,” said William Hill’s chief bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich before kickoff of the late game, ‘If the Chiefs show up we’ll be a small winner. If not, it’s a decent loser.”

                              The Chiefs did show up, and despite backup QB Matt Moore looking good it was Aaron Rodgers who made the winning plays late to send the Packers to a 7-1 record and a cover.

                              “We had a small win in the morning and it was looking like the Sunday night game wouldn’t affect our bottom line too much, but then we got a late six-figure on the Packers laying -5,” Stoneback said.

                              The high numbers on the Packers during the week were seen at -6 at the South Point and Caesars Palace after it was confirmed Patrick Mahomes would not play. The Packers were originally -4.5 until Mahomes was throwing in limited action during practice which dropped the line to -3.5 for a stretch until confirmations could be heard on his status.

                              In addition to the adjustments on quarterback situations, the book also to weather the storms such as 30 mph winds at Buffalo and a downpour at New England where the total made a rapid dive. The Bills (-1) had a total drop from 42 to 38.5 because of 30 mph winds in the Eagles 31-13 win. The Patriots (-10) total dropped from drop 46.5 to 42.5 because of the crazy sheets of rain. The Patriots would win 27-13.

                              CG Technology’s Tony DiTomasso said his movement on the total was more about staying with the market while also allowing to be under the curve to attract action. It’s not quite an air move, but more about booking an attractive number while staying a bit below the market and what the original number offered and attract action at a number moving.

                              Sharp bettors around Las Vegas jumped all over the Panthers which helped ease some of the parlay and teaser risk on the 49ers, but in the end, it wasn’t enough to offset the fascination of the 49ers who moved to 7-0 for only the second time in franchise history.

                              “The 49ers were one of those teams that were popular on the parlays but we have taken large action on the Panthers from one of our (house) players,” Stoneback said. “He took the Panthers for three separate six-figure bets at +4.5, and +4 earlier in the week and then came back for some more +4 later.”

                              There were a couple of other games like the Chiefs game with QB issues the books had to protect against in the information game with the status of Matt Ryan and Drew Brees not entirely known. Brees said Wednesday he would start and the Superbook reacted with piece of news to adjust their lines which started at Saints -7.5 on Sunday, adjusted to -9.5 on Monday and after the Brees quote up to -10.5. They closed at -12, after three moves up the ladder on Saturday.

                              The Saints would dominate time of possession and Brees showed no signs of his injured thumb be a problem in a 31-9 win aided by his 373 yards passing and three TDs.

                              Matt Ryan’s information came a little slower. The Superbook opened the Seahawks as 3.5-point road favorites on their early lines last Wednesday but took the game off the board after he got injured in last week’s blowout loss to the Rams. They regrouped with Seahawks -7 on Saturday and closed at -7.5.

                              The Falcons ended up getting the late backdoor cover with a Matt Bryant field goal in a 27-20 loss.

                              Another backdoor cover was the Giants at Detroit, a 31-26 Lions (-6) win.

                              “The backdoor cover with the Giants was a monster swing against us, “said DiTomasso.

                              Sharp play had jumped on the Giants early in the week at +7 and +6.5.

                              What we learned from the Week 8 card is that the hierarchy is still relevant and to be respected and also that the public will not be deterred despite being crushed the last few weeks. And they were right, and they cashed.

                              But still not a monsoon parlay day. The fact that the books withstood Week 8 results with just a small loss shows the public is still back-peddling but are not giving up on their reliables. The Packers, Saints, Patriots, and Rams are 6-2 ATS this season and the 49ers are next at 5-2 ATS.

                              The monsoon is coming, as it always does, so good for the bettors staying steady with their teams despite not having a successful 2019 NFL betting experience overall.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • MONDAY, OCTOBER 28
                                GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


                                MIA at PIT 08:15 PM

                                MIA +14.0 *****

                                O 43.5 ******
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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