Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAR at SEA 08:20 PM

LAR +1.5

U 49.0

[StarDust Bum]

Seahawks hold off Rams, 'over' hits
October 3, 2019
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SEATTLE (AP) Russell Wilson threw a 5-yard touchdown pass to Chris Carson on fourth-and-goal with 2:28 remaining to give Seattle the lead, Greg Zuerlein missed a 44-yard field goal with 11 seconds left and the Seahawks held on for a wild 30-29 victory over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night.

Jared Goff and the Rams (3-2) appeared on the verge of a victory after driving into field-goal range in the final 90 seconds. Zuerlein hit three field goals earlier, but this attempt slipped wide right and gave Seattle (4-1) a win it needed against its NFC West foe after losing six of the past eight to the Rams.

Wilson was 17 of 23 for 268 and four touchdowns. He was at his best, whether it was his throws from the pocket or when he was forced to improvise. It was one stunning play after another from Seattle's star, continuing the best start to a season in his career.

''I thought Russell played one of the best games I've ever seen him play," Seattle coach Pete Carroll said.

Seattle appeared to wrap up the victory when Tedric Thompson made a juggling interception of Goff's deflected pass while lying on the turf with 2:08 left. But the Rams forced Seattle to punt and took possession at their own 7 with 1:38 left.

In just seven plays, Goff had the Rams to the Seattle 30 after a 28-yard strike to Gerald Everett. The Rams stalled and a 9-yard pass to Everett on third-down set up Zuerlein's attempt. The snap was good, but the kick stayed just to the right.

''It's one kick. He's made a lot of big kicks for us. He's going to continue to make a lot of big kicks for us," Rams coach Sean McVay said.

Goff finished 29 of 49 for 395 yards and one touchdown just days after throwing for a career-high 517 yards and tying an NFL record with 45 completions in a loss to Tampa Bay. Everett had seven catches for 136 yards, and Cooper Kupp had nine grabs for 118 yards and a TD.

Wilson, though, was the star.

Wilson had touchdown passes of 13 yards to Tyler Lockett and 40 yards to DK Metcalf in the first half. He threw a 10-yarderto David Moore in the third quarter and he had a final answer after the Rams' had taken a 29-24 lead.

Wilson led Seattle 60 yards in 12 plays, helped during the drive by a roughing-the-passer call on Clay Matthews. After stalling inside the 10, Seattle faced fourth down at the 5. Wilson scrambled like he had all night, buying enough time to find Carson open in the corner of the end zone. The running back scared nearly all of the 69,000 in attendance by juggling the pass before gaining control. Carson said he lost the pass in the stadium lights, which led to the juggle.

Carson finished with 118 yards rushing on 27 carries. The touchdown was his only reception.

''Everyone kept their composure. Everyone was so poised and stayed in the moment," Seattle offensive lineman Duane Brown said. ''We were always very optimistic and had all the faith in the world and big time players stepped up for us."

GURLEY'S MISTAKE

Todd Gurley was a featured part of the Rams' offense early and finished with 51 yards on 15 carries, but the run game vanished during most of the second half.

Gurley also fumbled for the first time since Week 3 of last season. The fumble was ripped out by Jadeveon Clowney, who also recovered the ball. It was Gurley's first fumble in 338 offensive touches. He had gained 1,915 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns between his two fumbles.

KEY CATCH

Brandin Cooks had just one reception but it was a big one. Cooks pulled in a 29-yard catch from Goff on third-and-8 from the Rams 27 early in the fourth quarter as he was being covered tightly by Shaquill Griffin.

Cooks was being evaluated for a concussion after the play and did not return. Carroll challenged there should have been offensive pass interference but the call on the field stood. The catch led to Zuerlein's field goal that gave the Rams a 29-24 lead.

INJURIES

D.J. Fluker suffered a hamstring injury in the first quarter. He was replaced at right guard by Jamarco Jones, who typically is a backup tackle, but was forced to play guard with normal backup Ethan Pocic out because of a back injury.

UP NEXT:

Rams: Los Angeles stays in the NFC West, hosting San Francisco on Sunday, Oct. 13.

Seahawks: Seattle is at Cleveland on Sunday, Oct. 13.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 6, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Houston Texans
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings New York Giants
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Oakland Raiders
1:00 PM New York Jets Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM New England Patriots Washington Redskins
4:05 PM Denver Broncos Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM Indianapolis Colts Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, October 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cleveland Browns San Francisco 49ers


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NFL OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/03/2019..........1-1-0..........50.00%..............0.50


Totals...................1-1-0..........50.00%..............0.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/03/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00..............0 - 1..............-5.50................-0.50


Totals.....................1 - 0..............+5.00..............0 - 1..............-5.50................-0.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Odds to make the Stanley Cup playoffs this season:

— St Louis Blues Yes -$240, Yes +$190

— Chicago Blackhawks No -$210, No +$175

— Washington Capitals Yes -$300, Yes +$240

— Calgary Flames Yes -$220, No -$180

— Florida Panthers Yes -$220, No -$180

— Minnesota Wild No -$260, Yes +$210

Quote of the Day
“It’s kind of like going to recess and they have the first 85 picks.”
Miami OH football coach Chuck Martin, talking about playing Ohio State

Friday’s quiz
In all of MINOR league baseball this season, how many no-hitters were thrown?

Thursday’s quiz
Lions and Cowboys always host NFL games on Thanksgiving Day.

Wednesday’s quiz
Giants beat Detroit in 2012, the last time the World Series was a sweep.

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Friday’s Den: Writeup on 13 other college football games……

Boston College beat Louisville the last two years, 38-20/45-42; favorites are 3-3 SU in last six series games. Eagles lost two of last three visits to Louisville; last two were both decided by 3 points. Under Addazio, BC is 12-4-1 ATS as a road underdog; they lost two of last three games overall. Over last decade, Louisville is 19-32 ATS when laying points at home; they they split first two games, with losses by 18-11 points.

Trap game for North Carolina after an emotional 21-20 loss at Clemson; UNC lost its last three games, last two by total of 4 points. Tar Heels are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite. Georgia Tech is 16-5 in its last 21 games with UNC, winning 38-28/33-7 the last two years; Tar Heels lost nine of last ten visits to Atlanta (4-5-1 ATS). Tech lost 24-2 to Temple LW; they’re off to a 1-3 start, with a loss to a I-AA team.

Tulane/Army split their last eight meetings; Green Wave won last two meetings, 21-17/34-31. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games; dogs are 6-2 ATS in Tulane’s last eight trips to West Point. Tulane came from behind to beat Houston last game; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five games as a road favorite. Under Monken, Army is 3-4 ATS when getting points at home; they beat three stiffs and lost 24-21 (+22.5) at Michigan.

Underdogs covered last four Central Michigan-Eastern Michigan games; Eagles lost last three visits to CMU, by 12-7-32 points, with an average total of 62.3. Eastern is 3-2 ATS in last five games as a road favorite; they blocked punt for TD with 0:10 left to nip a I-AA team in their last game. CMU is 5-13 ATS in last 18 games as a home dog; they threw for 330+ yards in two of their last three games.

Miami won four of last five games with Virginia Tech, winning last two 28-10/38-14; Hokies lost last two trips to Miami, 30-20/28-10. Favorites covered four of last five series games. Tech is 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog; they’re 3-3 in last six games asa double digit underdog. Miami lost its first two games by total of 7 points, then snuck by CMU 17-12 in last game; Hurricanes are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

UCLA won four of last five games with Oregon State, winning last two 41-0/38-24; teams split last four meetings played here. Beavers are 0-3 vs I-A teams, with last two losses by 3 points each; they’re 10-16-1 ATS in last 27 games asa a road underdog. UCLA lost four of first five games and trailed 49-17 in its one win; they gave up 1,782 TY in last three games. Bruins are 8-15 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.

Favorites covered last seven California-Oregon games; Golden Bears lost their last five visits to Eugene (0-5 ATS). Ducks ran ball for 588 yards in last two meetings. Cal was 4-0 but lost at home to ASU LW; Golden Bears have wins at Washington, Ole Miss, are 8-3 as road underdogs under Wilcox. Oregon won its last two I-A games, allowing 6-6 points; Ducks are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.

Home side won seven of last eight Washington-Stanford games; Huskies lost their last five trips to The Farm (1-4 ATS). Washington won its last three games, beating USC LW; under Petersen, Huskies are 10-9 ATS as a road fave- they won 45-19 at BYU in their only road game. Stanford lost three of last four games; over last decade, they’re 5-1 as a home underdog (1-0 this year). Cardinal allowed 330+ PY in three of its last four games.

Underdogs covered 10 of last 13 Toledo-Western Michigan games; Broncos lost four of last five visits to Toledo (4-2 ATS in last six). WMU gave up 103 points in losing its two road games, at Michigan St/Syracuse; under Lester, Broncos are 2-5 as road underdogs. Under Candle, Toledo is 10-7 ATS when a home favorite; they won last two games over Colorado St/BYU, despite giving up a total of 1,149 yards.

Home side won last nine Buffalo-Ohio games; Bobcats lost their last four visits to western NY (0-4 ATS). Ohio Is 0-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 481 TY in all three games; Bobcats are 5-4 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.- they gave up 33-45 points in last two games. Buffalo lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 14+ points; under Leipold, Bulls are 9-3 ATS when getting points at home.

Home side won last four Ole Miss-Vanderbilt games; Commodores lost 27-16/57-35 in last two visits to Oxford. Favorites covered four of last six series games. Vandy lost three of first four games; they’re 18-14 ATS in its last 32 games as a road underdog- ‘dores lost 42-24 at Purdue in their only road game this year. Ole Miss gave up 1,006 yards in losing its last two games; they gave up 309 PY to a I-AA team. Rebels are 12-10 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.

Western Kentucky (-4) lost 37-34 to Old Dominion LY, their first loss in five games with ODU (3-2 ATS). Hilltoppers won 35-31/55-30 in their two visits to ODU. WKU split its first four games, losing to a I-AA team, running ball for only 58 ypg vs I-A teams- over last 2+ years, they’re 0-5 ATS when laying points on road. ODU is 0-3 vs I-A teams; since moving to I-A, they’re 5-8 ATS when getting points at home.

Tennessee is 0-3 vs I-A teams, losing SEC opener 34-3 at Florida; Vols covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Georgia had LW off after beating Notre Dame; they’re 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite. Underdogs covered five of last seven Georgia-Tennessee games; Dawgs won last two meetings, 38-12/41-0- they’ve won three of last four visits to Knoxville.

[Udog]

IMPACT INJURIES AND NFL ODDS: WHO'S IN AND OUT IN WEEK 5
PATRICK EVERSON

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen (concussion) was a full participant in Friday's practice, but he's still questionable at Tennessee. The Bills are +3, but could adjust to +2.5 if Allen starts and +3.5 if he sits.

As the NFL heads toward its 13-game Sunday slate, Friday’s injury report shed some light on the status of several key players. We go behind the counter to see how that information impacted the odds, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Bills: Quarterback Josh Allen (concussion) practiced Friday, but he’s still questionable at Tennessee. Buffalo is currently +3, with a total of 38.5. The SuperBook expects to move to +2.5 if Allen plays and to +3.5 if he sits. “It’s more of a significant move because of the key number,” Osterman said.

Packers: Wideout Davante Adams is out against the Cowboys with a toe injury, and running back Jamaal Williams will sit while in concussion protocol. The SuperBook made no moves off the Adams news and figured Williams would be out, so that was built into the opening line of Packers +4.5. Currently, Green Bay is +3.5, with a total of 47.

Cowboys: The offensive line will be without Tyron Smith (ankle), and fellow tackle La’el Collins (back) is questionable. Those concerns led only to an adjustment on the juice, with the Cowboys currently -3.5 (even) rather than the flat -110.

Colts: Indianapolis’ skill positions are dinged heading into the Sunday night game at Kansas City. Wideout T.Y. Hilton (quad) and running back Marlon Mack (ankle) are both questionable. The SuperBook expects both to play, but noted the line could adjust a half-point if Hilton sits out. Indy is +11, and the total is 56.

Chiefs: Tyreek Hill (shoulder) is out this week, and fellow wideout Sammy Watkins (shoulder/hamstring) is questionable. If Watkins sits, too, The SuperBook would tighten the line a half-point. The Chiefs are currently -11.

Bears: With Mitch Trubisky out after dislocating his left shoulder last week, Chase Daniel starts in London against the Raiders. But since Trubisky wasn’t playing particularly well, The SuperBook had no adjustment due to his absence. The Bears are -5.5, with the total at 40.5.

Patriots: Wideout Julian Edelman (chest) and running back Rex Burkhead (foot) are questionable but hardly a concern for The SuperBook, as New England faces winless Washington. “No effect. The Patriots have the weapons to fill in.” The Pats are laying 15, with a total of 42.

Giants: There was hope that running back Saquon Barkley would return this week, after sitting out the Week 4 win over Washington. But Barkley’s high ankle sprain will require at least another week to heal, and The SuperBook assumed he’d be out with its opening line of Giants +4.5. New York is now +5, with a total of 43.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 5 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Ravens -3 (757)-

5) Packers +3.5 (781)-

4) Patriots +15.5 (783)-

3) Buccaneers +3.5 (800)-

2) Vikings -5.5 (951)-

1) Bears -5.5 (1,299)-

2019 record: 13-11


Quote of the Day
“This is a results-based business. When you take these (GM) positions and certainly the position I’m in, you have to have thick skin and be prepared for the criticism that, quite frankly, a lot of times it’s accurate……the wins aren’t there right now, which is not acceptable. But at the same time I do see some good things going on and I am glad we made some of the decisions we made this offseason.”
Arizona Cardinals’ GM Steve Keim

Sunday’s quiz
Who did the Tampa Bay Rays play the one time they made the World Series?

Saturday’s quiz
Phil Mickelson is the only pro golfer ever to win $1M+ on the PGA Tour 20 years in a row.

Friday’s quiz
In all of MINOR league baseball this season, 31 no-hitters were thrown.

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Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday…….

13) Virginia Tech 42, Miami 35— Hokies led 28-0 when Miami scored a 44-yard TD on the last play of the first half; Hurricanes tied game 35-all when they scored a TD with 3:16 left in the game, but missed the go-ahead PAT.

Tech then drove 63 yards on five plays for a TD and their first ACC win in three tries.

Miami is 1-3 vs I-A teams, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points.

12) Navy 34, Air Force 25— Trends are fun and all, but under is now 33-9-1 in the last 43 games between the service academies. This game went over by a decent amount.

11) Speaking of the academies, Army (23-1) scored the first TD of the day, so if you bet them to score the day’s first TD, a prop bet at the SouthPoint, your day started out very well.

10) Texas (-11) 42, West Virginia 31— Mountaineers scored with 0:48 left, pushing the spread; over last 11 years, Texas is now 0-10-1 ATS the week before playing Oklahoma.

This game was closer than the score indicates; WVU outgained the Longhorns 463-407, but they were only 4-14 on 3rd down, Texas was 10-18— Mountaineers turned ball over four times (-3).

9) Florida 24, Auburn 13— Rough day for Auburn’s freshman QB Nix, who was 11-27/145 passing with three INT’s. Florida kept the Tigers in the game by losing five fumbles (-2 in TO’s). Gators outgained Auburn 382-241, teams combined to convert only 6-29 on third down.

8) Iowa State 49, TCU 24— Cyclones have covered their last eight October games.

7) Upsets:
— Virginia Tech (+14) 42, Miami 35
— Texas Tech (+10) 45, Oklahoma State 35
— Georgia State (+7) 52, Arkansas State 38
— Central Michigan (+6) 42, Eastern Michigan 16
— Oregon State (+6) 48, UCLA 31
— Ball State (+5) 27, Northern Illinois 20

6) SMU 43, Tulsa 37 OT— Mustangs were down 30-9 after the 3rd quarter, but won in OT after tying the game with 1:02 left in regulation. Rough night for Tulsa’s kicker, who missed three FG’s and an extra point.

5) Louisville 41, Boston College 39— Total yardage was 664-563, Louisville; they kicked a 41-yard FG with 1:13 left for the win. BC QB Grosel completed only 9-24 passes, but threw three TD’s. Eagles lost three of their last four games— they lost last two by total of five points.

4) Arizona 35, Colorado 30— Total yardage was 496-487 Colorado, but they kicked three FG’s and scored three TD’s, while Arizona scored five TD’s.

Not sure why Colorado fired Mike MacIntyre as coach LY, but they did; I’m thinking they made a mistake, but thats their business, not mine.

3) Oregon State 48, UCLA 31— Beavers led this game 21-0 after 6:01 of play; UCLA is now 1-4, and they trailed 49-17 in the one game they won.

2) Cincinnati 27, UCF 24— Knights turned ball over four times (-3); Gabriel was 25-46/297 passing but threw three INT’s- Davis caught 13 balls for 170 yards for UCF, in a losing cause.

1) There are a few teams that are so terrible you should never even think about wagering on them; UMass, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, UNLV.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 5
Joe Williams

We're on to Week 5 of the National Football League regular season, and we'll have our first game from London, as well as two more teams on a bye. The Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders (40.5) will battle at the new Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in a 1:00 p.m. ET start, which will be under the lights in jolly ol' England.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 4 6-9 6-9 5-10

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 26-37 25-37-1 31-31-1

The books made a killing in Week 4, and the under was a frequent play with nine of 15 games going under the total. That was a trend with the first-half and second-half lines, too, as offense was rather scarce in the fourth week of the season. Generally, that's good for the books as the public tends to bet more overs.

Division Bell

We saw five of the six division battles go the way of the 'under' in Week 4, including the primetime game on Monday between the two previously winless AFC North teams. In fact, outside of the Cleveland-Baltimore outlier, which saw the total cash by more than 17 points, the losing team in the other five division games had 10 or fewer points, and only one team in the six division battles scored more than 24 points.

Divisional Game Results Week 4
Cleveland at Baltimore Over (47.5) Cleveland 40, Baltimore 25
Washington at N.Y. Giants Under (48) N.Y. Giants 24, Washington 3
New England at Buffalo Under (41.5) New England 16, Buffalo 10
Seattle at Arizona Under (49) Seattle 27, Arizona 10
Minnesota at Chicago Under (38) Chicago 16, Minnesota 6
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Under (45) Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 3

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 5 as of Saturday morning.

New England at Washington: 47 ½ to 42
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 43 ½
Indianapolis at Kansas City: 54 to 56
Jacksonville at Carolina: 42 to 40
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 45
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: 42 ½ to 44

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 5 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: Under 94%
Chicago vs. Oakland (London): Under 93%
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia: Under 92%
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Over 91%
Atlanta at Houston: Over 87%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (77 percent) in the Buffalo-Tennessee matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Washington (77 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 5

Week 4 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-5
NFC vs. NFC 2-1
AFC vs. AFC 2-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-2

Week 5 is started with another high-scoring Thursday night battle, and a rarity for a divisional matchup, as the L.A. Rams-Seattle matchup went well 'over' (48.5) with 59 total points. Through 14 primetime battles the 'under' is now 10-4, but the 'over' has connected in each of the past two on Thursday.

Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: Since 2015 under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have posted 26.5 PPG in 15 games as a road favorite. Make a note that Minnesota scored 27, 37 and 29 points in this role last season with quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Buffalo at Tennessee: The Bills are the only team with a perfect 4-0 'under' record so far during the 2019 season, and the under has cashed in eight of their past nine games on the road, too.

Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 5:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Steelers offense showed some signs of life against the Bengals on Monday Night Football, posting 27 points for their highest point total of the season. The 'under' has cashed in three of four games for the Steelers, including 2-0 in their two battles against AFC opponents. The defensive showing was more a lack of cohesiveness and effective play by the Bengals, who are decimated on the offensive line, rather than some sudden greatness of the Steelers. They allowed 24 or more points in each of the first three games, an average of 28.3 PPG.

The Ravens had a 40-burger hung on them by the Browns last week at home. After giving up just 27 points in the first two weeks, the Ravens defense was believed to be back. However, they faced the awful Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals, two teams with a combined record of 0-7-1 SU. In the past two games against the Chiefs and Steelers, the Baltimore defense has been pounded for a total of 73 points, or 36.5 PPG. The offense has been on fire regardless of opponent, scoring 23 or more points in each of their four games, or an average of 33.8 PPG. As such, the 'over' has cashed in three of four contests.

The Ravens have hit the under in each of the past three as road favorites in Pittsburgh dating back to 2000, too.

Other important divisional games with important trends to note:

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Buccaneers rolled up an impressive 55 points in Sunday's road contest against the Rams, and they have registered 86 total points over the past two outings while coughing up a total of 72 points in the past two contests. In fact, the Bucs have allowed 31 or more points in three of their four contests overall. In their past 19 games on the road, the over has connected in 14 outings for Tampa Bay.

The Saints lost QB Drew Brees (thumb) during the Week 2 game in L.A. It was going to be disastrous, and a drop off in production with backupTeddy Bridgewater under center, right? Well, the Saints are 2-0 SU with 22.5 PPG, covering the spread in each while hitting the over once. It was a low-scoring 12-10 win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and the Saints offense has scored 12 or fewer points in two of the past three. The jury is still out on what kind of offense the Saints are going to be until Brees is able to return. As far as trends, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 games against NFC opponents for the Saints, while going 9-4 in the past 13 overall contests.

Denver at L.A. Chargers: The third and final divisional matchup takes place in Southern California, as the Broncos hope the fifth time is a charm. Denver's offense has been moribund or most of the season, posting 16 or fewer points in the first three outings. However, they ended up dropping a season-high 24 points in last week's narrow two-point setback against the Jaguars. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two after a pair of under results to start the season. Denver's defense has allowed 24 or more points in three of four outings, but no more than 27 in any one outing.

The over hit in Week 1 for the Chargers, a game which went to overtime against the Colts. However, L.A. is on a three-game 'under' run with 20.0 PPG on offense and 16.7 PPG allowed on defense. The under has cashed in each of the past six meetings in California, while going 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall between these two AFC West foes. The under is 9-2 in the past 11 divisional games overall for the Bolts, too.

London Calling

Oakland vs. Chicago (1:00 p.m. ET): The Raiders and Bears square off in the first of five international series games this season, and the first of four from London, England. Since the league began this venture in 2007, we've had 24 games played in the United Kingdom and the 'under' holds a slight 13-11 edge in those games but the low side did go 3-0 in 2018. The Bears played overseas in 2011 and captured a 24-18 over Tampa Bay while the Raiders are 0-2 in London, losing both games by double digits and that includes as 27-3 loss last season to Seattle.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with double-digit spreads for Week 5, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 56 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

New England at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots offense has rolled up 30 or more points in three of their four outings, but the 'over' has hit just once thanks to an amazing defensive effort by New England overall. The Patriots defense has allowed a total 13 points this season. Yes, they have yielded 27 total points on the season, but the 14 points scored by the Jets actually were by their defense, not by the offense. So the Patriots D has been on lockdown.

Don't look for New England's defense to give up much this week in D.C., either. QB Colt McCoy will take the reins of the offense this week looking to get the Redskins their first win despite being 15-point underdogs in their home building. The Redskins have averaged 16.5 PPG on offense, seeing their production just in every game from 27 to 21 to 15 to just 3 last week. The defense has given up 24 or more points in all four contests, and 31 or more in three of the outings. However, even a 34-7 result this week would hit an 'under'. It's hard to see the 'Skins scoring into double-digits against a lockdown Pats D, especially with a rusty McCoy at the helm.

Make a note that the 'under' has connected in each of the past nine games when New England is a double-digit road favorite, which includes its Week 2 result when they won at Miami by a 43-0 count.

N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. ET): The Jets have once against ruled out QB Sam Darnold (mononucleosis) for another game, so QB Luke Falk will make a second straight start. The Jets offense has been terrible, posting 11.0 PPG in three outings, and technically, just 6.3 PPG by the offense, as they have 14 points from their defense, as mentioned above. The unknown heading into this one is how well Falk will perform after having two weeks to prepare for the Eagles after a bye in Week 4. While the offense has been rather inconsistent so far, the defense has been consistent -- consistently worse, that is. They allowed 17 in the opener, 23 in Week 2 and 30 in Week 3.

Indianapolis at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. ET): Many felt that the Colts would see a drop-off in offensive production after QB Andrew Luck retired rather suddenly during the preseason. However, QB Jacoby Brissett has led the team to an impressive 23.5 PPG across the first four games, while the defense has coughed up 25.5 PPG so far. That's a great recipe for overs, going 3-1 so far. That's unlikely to change this week against the high-flying Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes. To make matters worse for the Colts, Mahomes didn't account for one touchdown in Detroit last week, and the Chiefs still won. He'll be angry and looking to get back on track under the lights. The over still cashed for the Chiefs in their 34-30 win last week, and they have 28 or more points in all four outings, hitting the over three times. They allowed 26 or more points in those three games when the over hit, too. Those tracking Sunday Night Football, we haven't seen an over ticket yet this season...so we could be due!

Under the Lights

Cleveland at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week features the Browns, who finally discovered their offense in Baltimore last week, against a 49ers team coming off a 15-day absence due to their bye in Week 4 and an extra day to prepare for MNF.

The Browns are averaging 22.3 PPG while yielding 22.8 PPG through four games, although defensively that's a bit skewed after coughing up 43 in the Week 1 loss to the Titans. The 'over/under' has split 2-2, but the under is 2-0 in the two primetime showings for Cleveland.

The 49ers have hit for 24 or more points in each of their three outings, averaging 32.0 PPG. Defensively, they have yielded 20 or fewer points in each of their three games, although the combined record of their three opponents is 3-9 SU, so it remains to be seen whether San Francisco's defense is that much improved or just a product of their poor opponents to date.

[StarDust Bum]

Circa Picks - Week 5
October 5, 2019
By VI News

Westgate SuperContest Consensus - Week 5

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4
Week 5

1) Chicago -5 (787)

2) Minnesota -5 (582)

3) Tampa Bay +3.5 (532)

4) Pittsburgh +3.5 (509)

5) San Francisco -3.5 (472)

CIRCA - WEEK 5 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
L.A. Rams (+1.5) 115 Seattle (-1.5) 101
Baltimore (-3.5) 241 Pittsburgh (+3.5) 509
Chicago (-5) 787 Oakland (+5) 175
Arizona (+3) 221 Cincinnati (-3) 160
Jacksonville (+3.5) 424 Carolina (-3.5) 210
Minnesota (-5) 582 N.Y. Giants (+5) 234
New England (-15.5) 425 Washington (+15.5) 127
N.Y. Jets (+13.5) 133 Philadelphia (-13.5) 316
Tampa Bay (+3.5) 532 New Orleans (-3.5) 318
Atlanta (+4.5) 255 Houston (-4.5) 189
Buffalo (+3) 320 Tennessee (-3) 330
Denver (+6) 331 L.A. Chargers (-6) 239
Green Bay (+3.5) 385 Dallas (-3.5) 345
Indianapolis (+11) 320 Kansas City (-11) 187
Cleveland (+3.5) 327 San Francisco (-3.5) 472

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 5
October 5, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Buccaneers at Saints (-3, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) is winless in two home games this season, but the Buccaneers have excelled on the road by beating the Panthers and Rams in the underdog role. In Week 4’s most unexpected result, nobody predicted the Bucs would drop 55 points on defending NFC champion Los Angeles in a 55-40 upset as nine-point underdogs. Jameis Winston posted 385 yards and four touchdown passes for the Bucs, who have covered five consecutive games as an underdog since Week 15 of 2018.

For the first time since Teddy Bridgewater has taken over as starting quarterback for the injured Drew Brees, the Saints (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) are listed in the favorite role on Sunday. Bridgewater led the Saints past the Seahawks as a road underdog in Week 3, followed by a 12-10 triumph as 2 ½-point home underdog to hand the Cowboys their first loss of the season. The Saints are laying points for the first time since a Week 1 last-second win over the Texans, but New Orleans is riding an 0-5 ATS run (including the playoffs) since Week 15 of 2018 as a favorite.

The road team captured each of the two matchups last season, as the Buccaneers outlasted the Saints, 48-40 as 10-point underdogs in the 2018 opener. Both Brees and Bucs’ quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick each eclipsed the 400-yard passing mark in that shootout, but the Saints got the better of Tampa Bay in the second meeting at Raymond James Stadium, 28-14 as 10-point favorites. The Bucs own a 3-2 ATS mark in the last five trips to the Superdome, but all three covers came as a touchdown underdog or higher.

Best Bet: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20

Bills at Titans (-2 ½, 39 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Although it’s only Week 5, this is a pivotal game in the AFC playoff race as a Buffalo (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) would help solidify the Bills as a Wild Card contender. The Bills started 3-0 prior to suffering their first loss of the season last Sunday, 16-10 to the Patriots. Buffalo fell to 3-29 in the past 32 meetings with New England, but managed a cover as seven-point underdogs. The Bills outgained the Patriots by 151 yards, but scored only one touchdown as Buffalo has amassed more yardage than its opponents in all four games.

The Titans (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) rebounded from consecutive divisional losses to the Colts and Jaguars to knock off the Falcons, 24-10 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Tennessee jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead and cruised to its second win this season in the ‘dog role led by Marcus Mariota’s three touchdown passes. The only issue for the Titans this season is succeeding in the favorite situation as Tennessee is 0-2 SU/ATS when laying points.

Buffalo squeezed past Tennessee last season, 13-12 as six-point home underdogs, marking the third consecutive meeting since 2012 that has been decided by exactly one point. The Bills are leaving the state of New York for the first time this season, as Buffalo tries to improve on a 6-3 ATS record in its past nine road contests.

Best Bet: Titans 17, Bills 14

Packers at Cowboys (-3 ½, 47) – 4:25 PM EST
Both these NFC squads dropped their first game of the season last week as each of these teams seek a 4-1 start. Green Bay’s (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) offense finally woke up, notably quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw for a season-high 422 yards after not posting more than 235 yards in any of the first three wins. However, Rodgers was intercepted on the final drive in the red zone as the Packers lost to the Eagles, 34-27 as 3 ½-point favorites. Now, Green Bay is flipped to a road underdog, as the Packers are 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS the past nine games away from Lambeau Field.

The Cowboys (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) took care of the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins in each of the first three weeks, while scoring at least 31 points in each of those victories. Dallas didn’t allow a touchdown in last week’s game at New Orleans, but the Saints did enough to edge the Cowboys, 12-10. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Cowboys led, 10-9 before a short Wil Lutz field goal put the Saints ahead for good to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. Dak Prescott threw nine touchdown passes in the first three games, but didn’t reach the end zone, while Ezekiel Elliott was held to his lowest rushing output of the season with 35 yards.

Dallas responded well off a loss in 2018 by going 5-1 SU, but covered only twice in those six opportunities. The Packers have owned the Cowboys over the last decade by winning seven of the last eight meetings since 2009, as Green Bay is 3-0 in Arlington in this stretch. The three wins have come by 1, 3, and 4 points, capped off by a 35-31 victory as 2 ½-point underdogs in 2017 as Green Bay erased a 21-6 deficit by scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute.

Best Bet: Packers 28, Cowboys 24

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (2-3 last week, 11-9 this season)
Cardinals +3
Vikings -5 ½
Falcons +5
Colts +11
Browns +3 ½

Chris David (2-3 last week, 8-12 this season)
Panthers -3 ½
Vikings -5 ½
Titans -3
Redskins +15 ½
Saints -3 ½

SURVIVOR PICKS
Kevin Rogers (3-1)
Eliminated – Rams lost to Buccaneers in Week 4
Chris David (4-0, Week 1 – SEA, Week 2 – NE, Week 3 – DAL, Week 4 – LAC)
Eagles over Jets

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 40 ½ - Bears vs. Raiders
Chicago and Oakland hook up at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London for the first overseas game of the season. The Raiders are coming off an impressive road victory over the Colts last week, 31-24, but Oakland has struggled to score points following a win since Jon Gruden returned as head coach. Oakland is 0-5 off a win since 2018, while scoring 10, 3, 16, 17, and 10 points in those games. Oh, and throw in the fact that All-Pro linebacker Khalil Mack is facing his former team for the first time since the Raiders dealt him to the Bears prior to last season. The Bears have allowed no more than 15 points in a game this season and even though they turn to backup quarterback Chase Daniel, Chicago may win this game and not even reach 21 points.

TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Broncos still haven’t won a game yet this season as they sit at 0-4. Tow of those losses came on a last-second field goal at home to the Bears and Jaguars, while squandering a 17-3 lead in last week’s two-point defeat to Jacksonville. Denver heads to Los Angeles to face the Chargers, who are coming off their second win of the season. The Chargers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites, but that number has dropped to 5 ½ at the Westgate Superbook. Denver rallied past Los Angeles last season, 23-22, as the Chargers own a 2-6-1 ATS mark in their last nine home contests.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE
Both the Bengals and Cardinals have yet to win a game this season as the two teams hook up at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati opened up as a 4 ½-point favorite at the Westgate Superbook, but the Bengals have dropped to a three-point favorite. The Bengals’ offense has gone backwards from a yardage perspective each week, while tallying only 175 yards in last Monday’s 27-3 drubbing by Pittsburgh. Cincinnati has won only one of its last 12 games dating back to last season, while Arizona seeks its second road cover of the season.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
The Falcons have struggled in the role of a road underdog the last few seasons by accumulating a dreadful 1-8 SU/ATS mark. The only victory came at Washington in 2018 as a measly one-point ‘dog, while Atlanta is 0-2 ATS when receiving points on the road this season in defeats at Minnesota and Indianapolis. The last time the Falcons won outright as a road underdog of four points or more came at Oakland in Week 2 of the 2016 season. Atlanta is facing its third consecutive AFC South opponent, as the Falcons try to end their interconference hex by going 1-12 in their last 13 matchups with AFC foes.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 5
October 4, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (9.25 ppg) since Oct 17, 2004 and off a game as a favorite of more than three points where they failed to complete at least 50% of their passes.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Panthers are 0-11 ATS (-9.82 ppg) since Oct 01, 2006 as a favorite off a win in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-9.50 ppg) since Sep 20, 2015 coming off a win where Marcus Mariota threw at least 3 touchdowns.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Games since 1998 with a total of 41+ when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in their last game are 27-11 OU. Active on Arizona/Cincy and Atlanta/Houston.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Falcons are 0-11 OU (-5.55 ppg) since Nov 11, 2001 coming off a game as a home favorite where they scored less than 14 points.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Ravens are 11-0 OU (7.05 ppg) since Dec 16, 2007 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Saints are 0-13 ATS (-13.92 ppg) as a favorite over a divisional opponent after a one to three point win.

=-- The Bills are 0-8 since 2007 against AFC team on grass fields where they are not favorite of more than 3 points when they scored less than 13 points last game.

[Udog]

NFL Week 5 Sunday odds and line moves: Public backs Bears, book needs Raiders in London
Patrick Everson

Chicago's defense flexed its collective muscle last week in a 16-6 home victory over Minnesota. The Bears, minus QB Mitch Trubisky, are 5.5-point favorites against Oakland on Sunday in London.

NFL Week 5 Sunday has 13 games on the docket, including the first London contest of the season. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for that tilt and three others, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Chicago Bears vs. Oakland Raiders – Open: -5.5; Move: +5; Move: +4.5; Move: +5; Move: +4.5; Move: +5; Move: +5.5; Move: +5; Move: +5.5

Chicago lost quarterback Mitch Trubisky to a dislocated left shoulder in Week 4, then found a way to win without him. The Bears (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) got enough from Chase Daniel and a stingy defense to beat Minnesota 16-6 as 1-point home underdogs.

Oakland heads to London to continue its protracted road trip, as Jon Gruden’s squad hit the highway in Week 3 and won’t play another home game until Nov. 3. The Raiders (2-2 SU and ATS) didn’t let it bother them last week, beating Indianapolis 31-24 as 5.5-point road pups.

Chicago dipped from -5.5 to -4.5 early in the week, but was back at -5.5 by Saturday afternoon for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

“It kind of crawled back up a little bit,” Osterman said. “A lot of Bears support, which is not really a surprise. The sharps haven’t gotten involved. The public is all over the Bears. As far as the early games go, that’s probably gonna be our biggest decision.”


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4.5; Move: -3.5

Green Bay heads into this 4:25 p.m. ET clash off a mini-bye, having played the Thursday nighter in Week 4. The Packers (3-1 SU and ATS) probably needed the breather after losing to Philadelphia 34-27 laying 3.5 points at home.

Dallas also drew a prime-time assignment in Week 4 and, like Green Bay, suffered its first loss of the season. Playing in the Sunday nighter, the Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) went off as 2.5-point favorites at New Orleans and fell short in a defensive battle, 12-10.

“The majority of the money has come in on the Cowboys,” Osterman said, noting Dallas -3.5 is priced at even money due to a banged-up offensive line. “The biggest bet on that game, low five figures, is on the Cowboys, and we haven’t seen the sharps get involved. With the Cowboys’ offensive line injuries, sharps might be looking to bet the Packers, but don’t want to pay the -120 juice.

“If you’re looking to bet the Packers, you might want to wait until just before kickoff.”

Osterman said parlay play is running toward the Cowboys, too, and The SuperBook has a decent need on the Packers.


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: +3.5; Move: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +3

Baltimore blew an opportunity to take an early two-game lead in the AFC North. The Browns were 7.5-point home favorites against Cleveland in Week 4, but allowed 30 second-half points in a 40-25 setback.

Pittsburgh has shown well since losing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a Week 2 elbow injury. The Steelers nearly stole a Week 3 win at San Francisco, then finally cracked the win column with a 27-3 rout of Cincinnati giving 3.5 points in the Week 4 Monday night game.

“We’re at Ravens -3 (-120), and that’s where the majority of the money has come on both sides,” Osterman said of action for a 1 p.m. ET start. “We’re seeing a little more money on the Steelers, but the public is more on the Ravens. We’ve got decent parlay liability on Baltimore, too. But I wouldn’t expect this to go to 3.5.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

Tampa Bay traveled to the West Coast last week and notched one of the more surprising upsets so far this season. The Buccaneers (2-2 SU and ATS) were 9-point ‘dogs against the Los Angeles Rams, but took a 21-0 lead and weathered a big comeback in a 55-40 shootout victory.

New Orleans is 2-0 SU and ATS without Drew Brees, who’s recovering from a thumb injury, but Sean Payton’s troops didn’t exactly light it up last week. Playing in the Sunday nighter, the Saints slogged to a 12-10 victory over Dallas catching 2.5 points at home.

Tampa Bay is drawing the bulk of the cash in this 1 p.m. ET NFC South clash.

“We’ve seen a lot of Bucs support, mostly from the public,” Osterman said. “A lot public action is ‘What have you done for me lately?’ Tampa should’ve won that game against the Giants (Week 3), then looked good in Los Angeles. The Saints beat the Cowboys, but didn’t look too good. We need the Saints for quite a bit. It’s a decent-sized decision for us.”

[Udog]

SNF - Colts at Chiefs
Matt Blunt

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

SNF Betting Results

There was no sweating out last week's SNF play, as the Saints and Cowboys never came close to threatening the closing total. The result kept the SNF broadcast crew still in search of their first 'over' game, with the record now sitting at 0-5 O/U when you include Opening Night in Chicago that first Thursday as well. Not one of those games has finished with more then 44 total points scored, and with an average score of 29.6 points per game, points have really been at a premium on SNF in 2019.

The good news for those that prefer offensive football, is that that number should climb much higher after this week's game in Kansas City. KC has got the reigning league MVP under center once again, putting up big numbers each week once again, as this Chiefs offense averages 33.8 points per game themselves. That's more then what SNF games have seen from both teams combined on average, and you know that NBC analyst Al Michaels has to be excited about the possibility of getting a few more touchdown calls in this week.

That might not necessarily mean this 'under' run on SNF will get snapped, as the Chiefs bring some high totals with them each week as well. This week's total currently sits at 56, and that's 3 TD's-plus higher then what we've seen on average from SNF games this year. That's a big jump for sure, and maybe even Michaels' throat isn't ready for THAT many TD calls this week.

So let's get to the breakdown and see what angles we can find.

Total Talk

Interestingly enough, whenever SNF is looking for a high-scoring game to arrive, the Kansas City Chiefs seem to fall right into their laps. Since the start of the 2016 season, KC is on a 7-1 'over' run under the Sunday's lights, with the lone 'under' coming in a 45-10 win against the Bengals last year with the total closing at 56.5. There was the 83-point game versus the Patriots that they fell short in last year, as well as a trip to Seattle that saw 69 points scored. All of the other 'overs' but one saw at least 57 or more points scored, as this Chiefs offense has never stiffened up under the spotlight.

With KC already sporting a 3-1 O/U record this year, you always knew that the 'over' is going to be the popular side in a Chiefs game and this week is no different. When you're putting up 30+ points per game, you don't even need all that much help from your opponent to cash 'over' tickets, and with KC's defense ranking 30th of 32 teams in the league in yards allowed per game, and worst in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (5.87), Kansas City opponents generally have no problem carrying their own weight when it comes to 'overs' in Chiefs games this year. Those three 'overs' have resulted in an average point total of 28 points scored per game by KC opponents, and the only 'under' came in the Chiefs lone division game against the Raiders, who posted 10 points in the first quarter but failed to score the rest of the game.

Last I checked, Indy wasn't a rival of the Chiefs in the AFC West, and in a year that got thrown into chaos at the start with QB Andrew Luck's retirement, Indy has still managed to put up 24 or more points in three of their four games – cashing the 'over' in all of those as well. The Colts only 'under' this year came in their lone division game too, so maybe we will have a Sunday Night shootout yet again involving the Kansas City Chiefs.

Side Spiel

The opening spread for this game at -8.5 to -9 on the Chiefs did not last long at all, and after that initial surge of Chiefs money last Sunday and into Monday afternoon, the spread hit -11 where it currently is and has done nothing but fluctuate in price at that number since. Chances are we could get some Colts buyback as SNF approaches – either from those who grabbed KC at -9 and are looking for a potential middle, or those who believe the number is too high – but I wouldn't expect this number to be much different when all is said and done.

Which makes it tough to take either side in my opinion, as the whole playoff revenge argument gets thrown around as potential backing for a Colts play, but Indy is also without Luck this year, and doesn't have to deal with extreme cold like they did in that game. The weather difference alone calls for a different general gameplan to likely be employed, nevermind that it's a completely different QB back there too.

Indy will look to run the ball and find success that way though – as most teams have so far in 2019 vs KC – and if they are able to do that, produce points, and shorten the game at the same time, this point-spread probably does end up being a bit too high.

Final Thoughts

Similiar to the Eagles-Falcons matchup on SNF in Week 2, this game does set up as one of the potential better teaser plays on the week in terms of teasing either way. You may not be able to drop the Chiefs down to -3 or below for optimal teaser strategy right now, but winning this game by a touchdown or so probably sounds right in most cases. Teasing the Colts up through the key numbers of +14 and +17 gives you a cushion should it end up being a two-TD win for Kansas City, but landing right around either side of this point-spread would not surprise me at all.

Obviously teasing either side means you'll need to pair it up with something else during the week (say, Green Bay +10 or NY Jets +21.5) or the total in this game as well. And like last week, it's the total that stands out more to me from a betting perspective, and as “square” as it may look, going 'over' is probably the only way to go here.

Yes, asking for 57 points is a lot given what we've seen on SNF already, but last year SNF was on a 1-5 O/U run before the Chiefs visited New England in Week 6 and treated us all to that epic back-and-forth game. For whatever reason, Andy Reid's offenses in KC know how to make use of the extra time they afforded before a SNF game, as they've put up an average of 42 points per SNF game in their five contests under the lights the past two years. You get that kind of production from Mahomes and company this week, and the Colts don't even have to lift much weight at all to carry it 'over' the total. Also, make a note that Indy remains banged-up on defense and not having linebacker Darius Leonard or safety Malik Hooker available again won't be easy.

Teasing a side with the 'over' if you are looking for a same-game teaser would be the best option from my view, but as long as this total stays under the key number of 57, I've got no problem taking the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over 56

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 5
October 6, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Ravens(-3/44) at Steelers, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: This rivalry will have a different feel this season with Joe Flacco now in Denver and Ben Roethlisberger sidelined, but the hatred remains the same. With the Browns replacing the Bengals as a contender, there again doesn’t appear to be enough room in the AFC for both teams to be successful. In opening October against one another, they’ll get a much better idea of where exactly they stand as October opens. The Ravens have dropped consecutive games after opening 2-0 following wins over two of the NFL’s worst teams and the Steelers dominated winless Cincinnati at home on Monday night, so it’s difficult to say with certainty exactly how good these teams are. My expectation is that today’s winner will be the only team who will still have a shot at a playoff berth when they finish the regular season against one another in Baltimore on Dec. 29.

Baltimore leads the NFL in total offense and rushing, but those numbers are inflated by the 59 points they hung on pitiful Miami in Week 1. Last week’s loss to Cleveland saw Jackson throw his first two interceptions of the season. Considering we’re expected to see showers throughout this game, it’s worth knowing that the Steelers are going to be able to better align their defense against the run given the weather conditions. Pittsburgh has struggled to stop the run and will look to control possession with RB James Conner now expected to play without limitations after dealing with an ankle sprain. Top WR Juju Smith-Schuster is a game-time decision with a toe injury and fullback Roosevelt Nix is out. His ability to create space for Conner has been missed and could be a difference-maker in this type of contest. Tight end Vance McDonald hasn’t practiced all week and may miss another game. Nick Vannett, who did a nice job after being signed last week, could be in line for another heavy workload. The Ravens remain without corner Jimmy Smith after losing him in Week 1.

Bears (-6.5/40) vs. Raiders, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: For the first time in 2019, we’ve got some European weather to monitor with this Khalil Mack Bowl taking place in London. The game will be the first NFL game at the brand new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which opened in April. While rain is in the forecast throughout the day, conditions are expected to be dry and windy as Mack looks to wreak havoc against the team that dealt him to the Bears prior to the start of the 2018 season. Expect Mack to introduce himself to rookie Josh Jacobs, the player selected with one of the first-round picks Oakland got from Chicago, but it’s QB Derek Carr likely to bear the brunt of the impact against the league’s most dominant defensive player. Mack has made no secret of having the game circled on his calendar for months and comes in looking to add to his tally of 4.5 sacks and four forced fumbles.

Mack has 17 sacks to his credit with the Bears, while Oakland’s entire team has racked up a combined 18 since his departure, ranking dead last in the NFL in that category over the last year-plus. He’ll try and build on a great game in last week’s win at Indianapolis as the Raiders play the third of five straight games away from Oakland, which will again test their quarterback’s ability to get comfortable in an unfamiliar stadium after struggling over the past two seasons. He’s been able to establish TE Derrick Waller as his go-to receiver, which is important since Tyrell Williams has been listed as questionable this week. He should play, but could be limited, which may put his streak of scoring every game in jeopardy. For Chicago, QB Chase Daniel will in place of Mitchell Trubisky, who remains sidelined by a shoulder injury. With rookie DE Clelin Ferrell potentially out, Daniel should have ample time to throw given the Raiders’ struggles generating pressure since moving on from Mack. Linebacker Vontaze Burfict, the defensive leader of the Oakland defense, is back home after being suspended for the rest of the season for his latest helmet-to-helmet hit. He’s appealed but didn’t travel overseas.

Cardinals at Bengals (-3/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Kyler Murray looks for his first victory as a pro as he takes the field for only his second road start on the heels of his least effective game in a 27-10 loss to Seattle last Sunday. The No. 1 pick of the ’19 Draft has thrown for four scores and been picked off four times, but what is most alarming is that he’s been sacked 20 times. With the offensive line playing poorly, Patrick Peterson still suspended until mid-month and a new coaching staff trying to figure things out, it’s not surprising that the Cards are on the verge of the franchise’s worst start in 33 years.

The Bengals have been even worse, coming off a horrendous effort at Pittsburgh in which Andy Dalton had no time to throw. Cincinnati’s only home game to date ended in a 41-17 loss to the 49ers, so Zac Taylor hasn’t made a great first impression considering his team went the entire first month without holding a lead of over three points and trailing the majority of the time. This is likely to be the final time the Bengals are favored until December encounters with the Jets and Dolphins, so it’s important they get off to a strong start in order to avoid the franchise’s first losing streak since 2010. At this rate, the fan base is going to start longing for the days of Marvin Lewis by next week and planning a statue by Thanksgiving. Hopefully they’ll have AJ Green back by then, but the All-Pro receiver is again out for this one. WR John Ross is also out due to a shoulder injury, while the Cardinals will be missing a key playmaker in WR Christian Kirk and will be on their third right tackle. Cincy lost DE Kerry Wynn on Monday night. Arizona lists Terrell Suggs as a game-time decision. Rain may play a role in the second half.

Jaguars at Panthers (-3/40), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Gardner Minshew was masterful in last week’s second half, helping the Jaguars rally past the Broncos by setting up Josh Lambo’s game-winning field goal with a 60-yard drive over the final 1:32. The rookie sixth-round pick has now won consecutive starts and has impressed everyone with his poise. We’ll see if he’s able to continue making his case for keeping the gig when Nick Foles ultimately returns from a broken collarbone next month. Minshew played two seasons in Greenville at East Carolina, roughly 250 miles from Charlotte, before transferring to Washington State. The Panthers are hoping to spoil his return as they seek out their own three-game winning streak behind a backup QB, having ridden Cam Newton’s replacement, Kyle Allen, to road wins over the Cardinals and Texans. Carolina is attempting to end a five-game losing streak at Bank of America Stadium, having last won on Nov. 4 in Week 9 of last season against the Bucs.

Allen won’t have to deal with Jags’ standout corner Jalen Ramsey, who has been ruled out by back trouble. That increases his chances of maintaining an interception-free resume as a pro. He hasn’t lost in his three starts and has made good use of all his weapons, most notably Christian McCaffrey, in running the show for Norv Turner. This will be his debut at home outside of preseason contests, so he’s looking to continue impressing and has prioritized holding on to the football better since he’s fumbled every time he’s been sacked thus far. The Panthers have lost DT Kawann Short up front but will have Gerald McCoy in place to try and help make up for his production.

Vikings (-5.5/43.5) at Giants, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: After victories over Tampa Bay and Washington, rookie Daniel Jones will face his biggest challenge with the Vikings defense coming in for a visit. Saquon Barkley won’t be able to make it back from his high ankle sprain despite remarkable progress, so Wayne Gallman, Jr. hopes to duplicate his production after yielding 118 total yards and two touchdowns in his first start. TE Evan Engram and WR Sterling Sharp have produced, and Jones will add WR Golden Tate to the mix after he’s served out his four-game suspension.

The Vikings have played well enough to be 4-0 considering they’ve surrendered 15.8 points per game but Kirk Cousins has been a disaster, angering teammates Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen with his lack of production. Outside of the Redskins, the quarterbacks the Giants have seen have largely thrived. That includes Josh Allen, who threw for 253 yards and a score while running for another. If Cousins can’t find a rhythm here, head coach Mike Zimmer may have to consider his options despite the fact backup Sean Mannion has limited experience with the team. Windy conditions could limit the offense, while rain is also a possibility late in the afternoon.

Patriots (-16/42) at Redskins, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Colt McCoy will make his debut for the Redskins against a Patriots defense that leads the NFL in fewest points allowed and hasn’t surrendered a passing touchdown all season. The 33-year-old made two starts last season and will be appearing in just his 11th regular-season game with Washington over his six seasons, finally feeling healthy enough to return from a broken right fibula that didn’t heal as quickly as anticipated. For head coach Jay Gruden, this should be the beginning of his last stand as he looks to tighten a tenuous grip on his job as head coach considering things with rookie first-round pick Dwayne Haskins haven’t gotten off to a promising start. Rookie WR Terry McLaurin, who has quickly emerged as the Redskins’ top offensive weapon, is a game-time decision due to a hamstring strain.

Clear conditions should help aid a bounceback opportunity for Tom Brady, who was intercepted and threw for just 150 yards in last week’s 16-10 win over the Bills. Julian Edelman (chest) is likely a game-time call, while tight end Benjamin Watson has been ruled out. Josh Gordon was removed from the injury report and could be poised for a big day against the Washington secondary. With Rex Burkhead out, RBs Sony Michel and James White will also likely receive more snaps. New England’s defense will be missing safety Patrick Chung and list top LB Dont’a Hightower as a game-time decision. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was placed on IR with a hip injury so Mike Nugent will see his first action.

Jets at Eagles (-14/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Sam Darnold is getting closer to a return from mono and should be back within the next few weeks, but he won’t take the field in Philly to try and help the Jets avoid a 15th loss in their last 18 road games. Luke Falk will again start following New York’s bye week after helping produce just 105 yards of total offense in a 30-14 loss at Foxboro two weeks ago. The Patriots loaded up against LeVeon Bell, who has his team’s only offensive touchdown on a TD reception in Week 1, so the expectation is that the Eagles will follow suit. The Jets will be starting a pair of new guards. Defensively, New York will again be without top LB C.J. Mosley but does get back DT Quinnen Williams.

Deep threat DeSean Jackson remains out for Philadelphia, but with potentially windy conditions and a chance of showers, the Eagles will probably rely on the ground game and Carson Wentz’s ability to move the chains via Zach Ertz and the now healthy Alshon Jeffery and Dallas Goedert. Center Jason Kelce will play after the birth of a son and tackle Jason Peters is also cleared to go, which makes this a great opportunity for RBs Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders to break through with big games. Running the ball effectively will be the key to covering this lopsided spread since the Eagles will be looking to keep Falk from finding a rhythm the way the Pats managed to.

Bucs at Saints (-3/46), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Saints are looking for a second straight 4-1 start, which is something they haven’t managed in back-to-back years in their entire 52-year existence. It’s been impressive to see the team rally around the defense without Drew Brees in last week’s win over. Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill have done a nice job allowing Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas to carry the offense. New Orleans’ defense scored in the win at Seattle and held the Cowboys to 12 points last week.

The Bucs have scored 30.8 points and are off to the best offensive start in franchise history, so Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich have to be commended. Considering Jameis Winston’s season started so dreadfully in a turnover-filled home loss against the 49ers, Tampa is right to be excited about the progress of their former No. 1 pick as he attempts to finally reach the playoffs after leading the Bucs to just one winning season over his first four frustrating years. If the offense does its part, the defense should be able to put together a solid effort since LBs Devin White and Shauquil Barrett join DBs Ryan Smith and Jamel Dean back in the fold.

Falcons at Texans (-4/49.5), 1:05 p.m. ET, FOX: The Texans have had a terrible time protecting Deshaun Watson, while DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since the opener. Center Zach Fulton is back to anchor the offensive line. Safety Deshaun Gipson and corner Lonnie Johnson are both questionable, so keep an eye on this situation given how much the secondary should be tested by Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s receiving corps.

Slow starts have been one factor the Falcons’ brutal start, so another tough opening quarter against the Texans could spell the end for head coach Dan Quinn. Atlanta has been outscored 38-10 over the opening 15 minutes of their first four games this season, trailing by 17 or more at the break in all three of their losses. If TE Ertz hadn’t come up inches short on a fourth-down conversion in Week 2 in the closing stages of their 24-20 win over Philly, the Falcons would likely be winless.

Bills (-3/38.5) at Titans, 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Buffalo QB Josh Allen cleared concussion protocol and will start under center ahead of Matt Barkley as he looks to bounce back from a dreadful start against New England last week. Allen threw three picks before being knocked out of the 16-10 loss in the fourth quarter but will be facing a secondary that held him to just 82 passing yards last season. Buffalo still managed to beat the Titans 13-12 on a game-winning field goal at the final gun in one of Tennessee’s costliest losses in preventing it from reaching the playoffs.

Thunderstorms could be in the mix in Nashville, so scoring might be affected if the skies open and get involved. Tennessee is expected to play DE Cameron Wake despite a lack of practice time this week. Tennessee could be the most improved team in football this week due to the return of left tackle Taylor Lewan from a four-game suspension. Marcus Mariota should have a lot more time to make plays with improved offensive line play and has developed chemistry with rookie WR A.J. Brown, who debuted with a 100-yard game in the Week 1 upset of Cleveland and fueled last week’s win in Atlanta with a pair of scores.

Broncos at Chargers (-5.5/44.5) , 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Melvin Gordon is going to debut after not playing last week in Miami, but he’s expected to split carries with Austin Ekeler. Philip Rivers now has another playmaker to work with in keeping defenses from keying on WR Keenan Allen. Denver still hasn’t won despite leading both their home games until the final play, losing by two points on a successful last-second field goal each time. The Broncos did get solid play from Joe Flacco last week and have looked better on offense of late as Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant have emerged more consistently. With Bradley Chubb lost for the season, Vic Fangio is likely going to have to let coordinate Rich Scangarello open things up more. The Chargers could be without Melvin Ingram, who is dealing with a hamstring injury, so a defense already compromised by losing safety Derwin James for the season might be vulnerable.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 6
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at NO 01:00 PM
TB +3.0
U 46.0

ATL at HOU 01:00 PM
HOU -4.0
U 49.0

MIN at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG +5.5
U 44.0

BAL at PIT 01:00 PM
BAL -3.5

JAC at CAR 01:00 PM
JAC +3.0

NYJ at PHI 01:00 PM
U 43.0

CHI at OAK 01:00 PM
CHI -6.5
O 39.5

ARI at CIN 01:00 PM
ARI +3.0

BUF at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN -3.0
U 39.5

NE at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +16.5
O 42.0

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY'S LATE GAMES:


DEN at LAC 04:05 PM

DEN +4.0

U 45.0

GB at DAL 04:25 PM

GB +3.5

U 46.5