Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYG at NE 08:20 PM

NYG +16.5

U 43.0

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots force 4 turnovers, beat Giants 35-14 to reach 6-0
October 10, 2019
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FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) Tom Brady had two touchdown runs and moved ahead of Peyton Manning for second place on the NFL's all-time passing yards list as the New England Patriots pulled away for a 35-14 victory over the New York Giants on Thursday night.

The reigning Super Bowl champion Patriots also returned a blocked punt for a touchdown and forced four turnovers, including a fumble return for a score, to move to 6-0 for the first time since time since 2015.

Brady finished 31 of 41 for 334 yards and an interception. Julian Edelman had his second straight 100-yard receiving game, catching nine passes for 113 yards. Giants rookie Daniel Jones had three interceptions on the night, finishing 15 of 31 for 161 yards.

New England has now won 19 straight games against a first or second-year quarterback, the longest streak in NFL history.

Despite struggling to move the ball for most of the game, New York (2-4) had the ball trailing 21-14 with 8:43 left in the fourth quarter.

Jones completed a pass to running back Jon HIlliman, who was hit in the backfield by Patriots linebacker Jamie Collins, forcing a fumble. Kyle Van Noy recovered, sprinted 22 yards and stretched the ball to the pylon for the touchdown .

It was part of an error-filled game by both offenses, who entered the night dealing with key injuries

The Giants were missing three of their top playmakers. Running back Saquon Barkley sat a third straight game because of a sprained right ankle, tight end and leading receiver Evan Engram was inactive with a knee injury and receiver Sterling Shepard was in the concussion protocol. Barkley's backup Wayne Gallman also sat with a concussion.

The Patriots played without running back Rex Burkhead, who missed his second straight game with a foot injury. Receiver Phillip Dorsett was inactive, also with an injured foot.

As a result, both teams had issues executing and hanging onto the ball.

Jones was confused at times by the Patriots' coverages, contributing to his turnovers. And Brady, in addition to his interception, had a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

The Patriots moved swiftly on the opening drive, getting to the Giants 19. But Sony Michel was stopped for no gain on fourth-and-1.

New England took over in Giants territory for its third possession after Stephon Gilmore deflected a pass by Jones that was intercepted by John Simon. The Patriots gave the ball right back on the first play after the changeover when Janoris Jenkins picked off Brady's pass intended for Edelman.

New England broke the stalemate late in the first quarter when Riley Dixon's punt from the 6-yard line was blocked by Brandon Bolden and scooped up by Chase Winovich, who ran it in for the touchdown.

The Patriots then got the game's first offensive score on their sixth touch of the night when Brandon Bolden capped a five-play, 20-yard drive with a 1-yard run.

The Giants bounced back on their ensuing possession, with Jones connecting on a deep pass to Golden Tate, who sprinted for a 64-yard touchdown. It was the first passing TD given up by the Patriots this season.

The Patriots were just three plays into their next drive when Lorenzo Carter dragged down Brady for a 9-yard sack. Brady fumbled the ball, which was picked up by Markus Golden and returned 42 yards for a touchdown.

Patriots receiver Josh Gordon injured his left knee on the play while trying to tackle Golden. Gordon got caught under a tangle of players and got his left leg pinned underneath him. He needed assistance as he limped off the field.

But New England figured things out just before the half, getting a 1-yard run by Brady that capped an 11-play, 75-yard drive to put the Patriots ahead 21-14.

INJURIES

Giants: DL Olsen Pierre left in the second quarter with a concussion.

Patriots: S Patrick Chung left in the first quarter with a chest injury. ... TE Matt LaCosse exited in the first quarter with a knee injury. ... DB J.C. Jackson left with a knee injury. .. FB Jakob Johnson and LB Dont'a Hightower both left with shoulder injuries.

UP NEXT

Giants: Host Arizona on Oct. 20.

Patriots: Visit the New York Jets on Oct. 21.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 13, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
9:30 AM Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM New Orleans Saints Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Houston Texans Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Philadelphia Eagles Minnesota Vikings
4:05 PM Atlanta Falcons Arizona Cardinals
4:05 PM San Francisco 49ers Los Angeles Rams
4:25 PM Tennessee Titans Denver Broncos
4:25 PM Dallas Cowboys New York Jets
8:20 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, October 14, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers


*********************************


NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/10/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%..............-11.00
10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............77-69-1.......... 52.73%............ +5.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1.............-5.50.............-11.00
10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50...............6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................32 - 35............-27.00.............36 - 27 ..........+31.50............+4.50

[Udog]

NFL Week 6 odds movers and shakers: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New York quarterback Sam Darnold returns this week, which makes a big difference in the line. Without Darnold, the Jets would be nearly two-touchdown home 'dogs to Dallas, but instead are +7.

NFL Week 13 has a dozen Sunday games and a Monday nighter on the somewhat semi-frozen tundra. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

INJURY IMPACT

NEW YORK JETS: This week’s big mover isn’t due to someone who’s out, but rather someone who’s back in. After a monthlong bout with mononucleosis, quarterback Sam Darnold returns to lead New York at home against Dallas. “Without Darnold, this game would be Cowboys favored by 13.5 or 14, seeing as Luke Falk is third string for the Jets,” Osterman said. “With Darnold, we opened at Cowboys -7.5, and we’re now down to -7. Darnold is one of the biggest movers of a line, because of who is behind him.”

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Running back Alvin Kamara (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game at Jacksonville. “With the Kamara news, we moved the line a half-point,” Osterman said of a Friday afternoon adjustment from Saints +2 to +2.5. “If he doesn’t play, then I wouldn’t be surprised if it moved another half-point. He’s very important to their offense right now.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS: Running back Todd Gurley is doubtful to play in an NFC West clash against Seattle, as he deals with a quadriceps injury. “He’s worth a half-point,” Osterman said. Anticipating the Gurley news, The SuperBook moved the Rams from -3.5 to -3 on Wednesday.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: QB Patrick Mahomes’ ankle is apparently fine, but wideouts Tyreek Hill (shoulder) and Sammy Watkins (hamstring) – who both missed last week’s home loss to the Colts – are questionable this week at home against the Texans. The Chiefs are down to -4, after opening -8 pre-Indy loss. “Our Chiefs line had Hill out and Watkins in built into it. If Watkins is out, that wouldn’t have much effect on the line. But if Hill plays, that would move the line a half-point.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mason Rudolph (concussion) is out, meaning third-string QB Devlin Hodges gets his first NFL start, with Pittsburgh +7 at the Chargers on Sunday night. “We expected Rudolph not to play, so the line is already without Rudolph. The difference between Rudolph and Hodges is about 3 points.”


WEATHER WATCH

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The breeze will blow out of the southwest at 17 mph, with gusts to 23 mph. The total opened at 47, reached 47.5, then dipped to 46 Friday before ticking to 46.5. “The total has come down a little bit. Wind can really affect the kicking game.”

DALLAS AT N.Y. JETS: There’s a better-than-50-percent chance of precipitation for this 4:25 p.m. ET kick at MetLife Stadium. But that hasn’t altered any numbers yet at The SuperBook. “We’re waiting to get more of an accurate forecast Saturday.” The Cowboys are -7, with a total of 44.5.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The Monday nighter could be the chilliest game of the year so far, with temperatures in the low-40s/high-30s. The SuperBook opened the total at 46.5 and it peaked at 47.5, then returned to the opening number. “But temperature alone usually doesn’t have too much effect on the total, especially in places such as Green Bay, where low temps are expected.” The Packers are at -4.


PROS VS. JOES

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The line flipped from Cleveland -2 to Seattle -1.5, then ticked to Seattle -1. “This is a classic overreaction from Monday night, when the Browns looked bad” at San Francisco. “Pros are on Cleveland, the public is all over the Seahawks, in a spot where the Browns would probably be a small favorite had they not been blown out on Monday.”

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: This game opened at pick and moved to Jaguars -1.5 by Tuesday, and as noted above, the Jags got to -2.5 Friday on the Kamara news. “Pros are on the Jags, the public loves the Saints.”


REVERSE LINE MOVES

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: Along with this matchup pitting Pros vs. Joes, it falls into this category, as well. “The line opened pick, and we’re now at Jags -2.5, even though we’ve taken more money on the Saints.” The aforementioned Kamara injury factors into that line, as well.

CAROLINA VS. TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened +1.5, the line quickly got to pick, then trended back toward Carolina, with the Panthers now -2.5. “We haven’t taken much on that game in general, but we have taken a little bit more on the Bucs, even though the market is going the Panthers’ way.”

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 since Dec 11, 2005 coming off a road game that did not end in a tie where they had a player with at least 125 receiving yards.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.04 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Teams are 0-7 OU (-6.00 ppg) since Nov 23, 2017 coming off a road game where Kirk Cousins threw at least two touchdowns.


SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Games since 1998 with a total of 41+ when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in their last game are 29-11 OU. Active on Washington/Miami


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-14 OU (-8.23 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 coming off a game where they threw for less than 215 yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The 49ers are 14-0 OU (10.04 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 on the road coming off a home game where they rushed for at least 130 yards.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Broncos are 10-0 ATS (+14.30 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick after a win as a road dog.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 6
Joe Williams

We head into the meat of the Week 6 schedule and the action started Thursday as the Giants-Patriots (43) game went 'over' for the third consecutive mid-week matchup. Even though the pair combined for 49 points, the 'over' was helped with three defensive and special teams scores. On a side note, the Patriots offense has just as many touchdowns (3) as the defense has this season. Including New England's victory over New York, winning teams are averaging 33 points per game over the past three Thursday night games, with the losing side is posting 20 PPG.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 5 8-7 6-9 8-6-1
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 36-42 31-46-1 39-37-2

The books had another strong performance in Week 5, helped out in part by the result of the Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders game in England. The total inched 'over' in that one, too. We'll touch more on the International Series below.

Division Bell

The four division battles saw the over connect in three of the outings in Week 5. The Ravens-Steelers game was helped out by the fact the contest was decided in overtime, but it was a rather miraculous result since undrafted free-agent quarterback Devlin Hodges played a majority of the game for Pittsburgh in place of injured QB Mason Rudolph, who is 'out' for Week 6, by the way. Hodges is the third-string QB for the injury-depleted Steelers.

Divisional Game Results Week 5
L.A. Rams at Seattle Over (48.5) Seattle 30, L.A. Rams 29
Baltimore at Pittsburgh Over (44) Baltimore 26, Piittsburgh 23 (OT)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans Over (46.5) New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 24
Denver at L.A. Chargers Under (45.5) Denver 20, L.A. Chargers 13

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 6 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Arizona: 47 to 51 ½
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: 48 to 50 ½
Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers: 43 ½ to 41 ½
Carolina at Tampa Bay (London): 46 to 47 ½
Houston at Kansas City: 54 to 55
Washington at Miami: 41 to 42

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 6 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Dallas at N.Y. Jets: Over 92%
Atlanta at Arizona: Over 87%
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: Over 81%
New Orleans at Jacksonville: Under 75%
Houston at Kansas City: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (66 percent) in the Washington-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Pittsburgh-L.A. Chargers (65 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 6

Week 5 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 3-1
NFC vs. NFC 1-1
AFC vs. AFC 0-2
AFC vs. NFC 4-3

London Totals

Week 6 will kick off with a divisonal battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in London featuring the second Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup of the season. The first time these teams met, the Bucs won 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, which was also the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). It was also the last time we saw the Panthers take a loss, as they have won three in a row under QB Kyle Allen.

This will be the first division battle overseas since the Rams blanked the Cardinals in Week 7 of the 2017 season, a game which went 'under'. We have had 25 regular-season games played in London since the start of the NFL International Series back in 2007, but only three divisional matchups. The 'under' is 2-1 in those games. Will the Bucs and Panthers follow suit with a line of 47.5? The under is 4-1 in Carolina's past five against divisional foes, while going 5-2 in Tampa's past seven against teams with a winning record.

London Results - Past Eight Games
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Other Week 6 Action

Houston at Kansas City: We saw QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) aggravate his ankle injury last Sunday night, and that really played a factor in his mobility and effectiveness. The Chiefs were tripped up at home 19-13 by the visiting Colts, and the 'under' connected. Vegas isn't expecting his ankle to be an issue, as they have set the total in the mid-50's, the highest total of the weekend slate. It's something to watch, not only this week, but in the following weeks, as the 'under' could be a sneaky play in Kansas City games due to inflated totals. Make a note that while Houston has been a great 'under' team at home, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in its last five road games and the offense is averaging 27.4 PPG in those games.

Philadelphia at Minnesota: The Eagles hit the road for the third time this season. They have averaged 27 PPG away from home, while allowing 25.5 PPG. For the Vikings, they're averaging 31 PPG in their two home games at U.S. Bank Stadium, while yielding just 13 PPG. Due to the defensive effort of the Vikings at home, the total is set at a rather low 44, but the Eagles are not the struggling Falcons or inconsistent Raiders offensively. The last time Philadelphia played at this venue, it put on an offensive show as it defeated New England 41-33 in Super Bowl 52.

Seattle at Cleveland: The last time these teams met resulted in a 30-13 win by the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. While the Browns were expected to be different, they have really struggled to jell offensively. Outside of a 40-point outburst against the Ravens in Week 4, the Browns offense has been rather moribund, posting 13, 23, 13 and 3. The 'under' has hit in three of the past four as a result. Seattle has had no such struggles on offense, going for 21 or more points in each outing, and 27 or more in each of the past four. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in two road games to date.

Washington at Miami: In the 'Tank Bowl', the winless Redskins and winless Dolphins square off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. I'm actually anticipating this game rather heavily to see exactly how good, or how bad, the tanking is. This will be the first game for Washington under interim head coach Bill Callahan, who is going back to Case Keenum as his QB. When healthy, Keenum has moved the offense, posting 21 PPG in the first three games before flaming out in Week 4 against the Giants before getting pulled. The 'over' went 3-0 in his first three starts, however. The defense has yielded 24 or more points in every game, so we might see Miami's highest output of the season.The Dolphins are dead-last in total yards allowed (472.0), rushing yards (175.8) and points per game (40.8), while checking in 31st in passing yards (296.2) allowed. For second-half total bettors, Miami hasn't scored in the final 30 minutes in any of its games this season.

Atlanta at Arizona: The Falcons have been hard to figure out this season, as they 1-4 SU with some varying results offensively. They were worked over 28-12 in Week 1 on the road, failing to score until the fourth quarter. In the past two road games they have averaged 28 PPG while allowing a total of 80 points, and they're giving up 20 or more points in all five contests to date. A lack of defense has been the only consistent thing about the Falcons, so perhaps rookie QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will get the offense rolling. In three home games Arizona is averaging 19 PPG while coughing up 27 or more points in all three games, or an average of 30.7 PPG.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with spreads of six or more points for Week 6, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 ½ to 48 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals are on the short end of a double-digit spread in Charm City. They have really struggled offensively, helped in large part due to injury problems along the offensive line. The fact wide receiver A.J. Green has been sidelined all season hasn't helped, either. Cincinnati is averaging just 16 PPG, ranking 29th in the NFL, while posting just 319.2 total yards per game to check in 26th. The defense isn't much better, ranking 30th with 411.8 total yards allowed, and they've been gouged for 167.6 rushing yards per contest to rank 31st. That's bad news when prepping for dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. The over is 7-3-1 in the past 11 for Cincinnati inside the division, while going a perfect 4-0 in Baltimore's past four divisional battles.

Dallas at N.Y. Jets (4:25 p.m. ET): The Jets get their starting QB Sam Darnold (illness) back this week, as he looks to give the Jets an injection of offense. He posted 16 points in his first and only appearance this season, and that was a seaso-nhigh in production for New York. They're averaging just 7.7 PPG over the past three games under the leadership of QBs Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk. The defense is perhaps the bigger concern, allowing 28 PPG over the past three outings. The Cowboys have slacked off over the past two games, averaging just 17 PPG across the past two games, both losses. They opened with three straight wins, posting 35, 31 and 31 points. Look for the Cowboys to get back to that type of production in a stadium they're very familiar, MetLife Stadium, since they face the Giants here once per season. The 'over' is also 2-1 in they're three games against losing teams, including 1-0 in their road game in such situation.

Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers (8:20 p.m. ET): The Chargers are favored by 6 ½, and Vegas is expecting a rather low-scoring game on Sunday Night Football. For those tracking Sunday Night Football, we haven't seen an over ticket yet this season...going a perfect 6-0. With the UDFA QB Hodges making a start for the Steelers, expectations aren't terribly high that we're going to see a track meet. The 'under' is 37-15 in Pittsburgh's past 52 road outings, while going 16-5 in the past 21 on the road against teams with a losing home mark. The under is 4-1 in the past five at home for the Bolts, while going 21-8 in the past 29 vs. AFC teams.

Under the Lights

Detroit at Green Bay (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week will have the rested Lions, coming off of their bye, facing the red-hot Packers, coming off a 34-24 win at Dallas to show they're still a power in the NFC. The Lions could easily be 4-0 at this point, if not for a Week 1 meltdown late, settling for a tie on the road against the Cardinals. They also had some late-game issues in the Week 4 battle against the Chiefs, falling 34-30. The 'over' has connected in three of their four games to date, posting 27 or more points offensively in each of those games. The outlier is a 13-10 win over the Chargers in Week 2. It was an outlier defensively, too, as they have given up at least 24 points in three of their four contests.

The Packers struggled offensively in a divisional battle to open the season, winning 10-3 in Chicago. They also saw the 'under' cash in Week 2, another divisional battle and win against the Vikings. However, they're averaging 29.3 PPG over the past three outings while yielding 24.8 PPG, seeing the 'over' hit in each of those three. The last time these teams met in Lambeau Field was Dec. 30, 2018, but the Packers rested an ailing QB Aaron Rodgers, so the Lions 31-0 win and 'under' result can mostly be discounted. They met Oct. 7 last season, with the Lions winning 31-21 in an 'over', and that is a little more of what to expect.

While it's still early, be aware that teams off the 'bye' this season have watched the 'under' go 2-0 in their games with the 49ers and Jets going low last week. As mentioned above, Detroit will be playing with rest and Miami will as well.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 6
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Seahawks at Browns (PK, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) escaped past Los Angeles in Week 5 with a nail-biting 30-29 home victory to improve to 2-0 in NFC West play. Russell Wilson continues to put together a terrific season for Seattle by throwing four touchdown passes, but the Seahawks dropped to 0-3 ATS at home after failing to cash as 1 ½-point favorites. The Seahawks have been solid to back on the road this season by winning at Pittsburgh and Arizona, while scoring 28 and 27 points, respectively in those victories.

On the flip side, the Browns (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have been tough to figure out this season. Granted, the expectations have been elevated, but Cleveland has not put together two solid performances in a row this season the Browns lit up the Ravens for 40 points, but were held to three points in last Monday’s blowout loss at San Francisco. The Browns have yet to win a game at home in two tries in 2019, but Cleveland has not dropped consecutive contests since Week 8 and Week 9 of last season.

Cleveland is 0-2 this season against NFC foes, while Seattle has beaten each of its two opponents from the AFC. Dating back to 2017, the Seahawks have covered eight consecutive games off an ATS loss, while the Browns’ offense has rebounded off a defeat this season by scoring 23 and 40 points following a setback.

Best Bet: Browns 26, Seahawks 24

Eagles at Vikings (-3, 44) – 1:00 PM EST

Two seasons ago, Philadelphia (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) destroyed Minnesota (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) in the NFC championship game as short underdogs on its way to the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl victory. The Eagles won that title behind Nick Foles at quarterback, as Carson Wentz looks to bring Philadelphia back into the top of the NFC. Wentz has led the Eagles to wins the last two games following a 1-2 start in victories over the Packers and Jets, as Philadelphia has topped the 30-point mark in each contest. The Eagles covered in their only underdog opportunity in 2019 at Green Bay, while posting a 3-0 ATS mark in their last three chances when receiving points.

The Vikings have cruised to home victories over the Falcons and Raiders by double-digits each, while coming off their first road win of the season against the Giants. Minnesota’s two losses came within the NFC North against Green Bay and Chicago, as the Vikings were limited 22 points in those defeats. The Vikings’ defense has been solid this season by allowing 16 points or fewer in four of five games, resulting in a 4-1 mark to the UNDER.

Minnesota avenged the 2017 NFC Championship loss by edging Philadelphia last season, 23-21 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Vikings jumped out to a 20-3 advantage before the Eagles crept within two points in the final minute. Both Wentz and Kirk Cousins each threw for over 300 yards in that game, but each team was limited to below 81 yards on the ground.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Vikings 17

49ers at Rams (-3, 50 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Only one team remains undefeated in the NFC and it’s the 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS), who are fresh off a 31-3 blowout over the Browns last Monday. San Francisco easily cashed as five-point favorites off the bye, highlighted by an 83-yard touchdown run by Matt Breida and two touchdown passes from Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners own a solid 10-2 record since 2017 with Garoppolo starting at quarterback, as five of those wins have come away from Levi’s Stadium.

The Rams (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) sit in third place of the NFC West behind the 49ers and Seahawks entering Sunday’s action following consecutive losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle. Los Angeles has yielded 85 points in the past two losses, including 30 points in a one-point defeat at Seattle in Week 5. Rams’ quarterback Jared Goff threw for 395 yards, but L.A. suffered consecutive losses for only the second time under head coach Sean McVay. Running back Todd Gurley scored twice against the Seahawks, but the former University of Georgia standout will miss Sunday’s contest with a quadricep contusion.

Los Angeles swept San Francisco last season, but the Niners also played without Garoppolo in each of those games following his ACL tear last September. The Rams have scored 39 or more points in three of the past four meetings with the Niners, but San Francisco’s defense will be up to the task as it has yielded 57 points in four games this season.

Best Bet: Rams 27, 49ers 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 40 ½ - Titans at Broncos

Both Tennessee and Denver have struggled to score points this season as the Titans have scored 17 points or less three times, while the Broncos have posted 20 points or fewer on four occasions. However, Tennessee is coming off a loss to Buffalo last week, as the Titans have posted 43 and 24 points in the role of a road underdog this season. The Broncos have been a bit hit or miss defensively as they have given up 16 and 13 in two games, but also allowed 24, 26, and 27 in three losses.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

New Orleans has rolled to a 3-0 record with Teddy Bridgewater as its starting quarterback, including back-to-back home wins over Dallas and Tampa Bay. The Saints travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars, who continue to ride rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. Jacksonville has covered in three of four games with Minshew starting, including in its last home game against Houston in Week 3. This is the first time that Jacksonville is favored this season, as the Saints may be in a look-ahead spot with a visit to Chicago next week.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Chiefs opened as six-point favorites against the Texans at the Westgate Superbook last Monday, but that number has dropped to four. Kansas City is dealing with injuries on offense as wide receiver Sammy Watkins is listed as doubtful, while Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision after missing the last four games with an injury to his sternum. The Texans are 2-0 ATS on the road this season, including an outright underdog victory over the Chargers in Week 3. Dating back to 2018, Houston has covered in four of the past five opportunities in the road ‘dog role.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Since beating the Colts in Week 6 at home last season, the Jets have lost 13 of their past 14 games, including an 0-4 start in 2019. New York has failed to cover in its past seven opportunities at Met Life Stadium, while last cashing as a home underdog in Week 16 of the 2017 season against the Chargers. The Jets get quarterback Sam Darnold back in the lineup on Sunday as they face the Cowboys as seven-point underdogs.

[Udog]

SNF - Steelers at Chargers
Matt Blunt

Pittsburgh Steelers at L.A. Chargers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After grabbing an easy winner two weeks ago with the 'under' in the Cowboys/Saints game, last week's play on the 'over' in the Colts/Chiefs game was an easy loser in that the two teams never came close to sniffing that total. The Chiefs have a bit of a dilemma on their hands right now with how they expect to handle man coverage, but for an offensive mind like head coach Andy Reid, I wouldn't expect Kansas City's offensive struggles against that form of defense to continue. It's a copy cat league though, so until KC does figure out how to beat man, they are going to continue to see it in high doses.

This week's SNF game has a pair of teams that would tell you they've drastically underperformed this year, as at the beginning of the year, not many would have had the Chargers and Steelers a combined 3-7 straight up heading into this contest. But that's exactly where they stand as neither of them are at .500, and are probably another loss or two away from potentially packing things in for 2019. That's life in the NFL though, and if you get hit hard by the injury bug early in a season like these two teams have, it's awfully tough to turn things around enough to make the year a successful one.

Total Talk

Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have definitely been hit hard by injuries this year, with the most recent significant loss being Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph. Rudolph took a brutal head shot last week, was forced out of the game, and there is no timetable for his return. That means that it's third stringer Devlin Hodges shot at making a start in the NFL this week and for an undrafted guy to be thrust into that role just six weeks in is tough.

At the same time, The Chargers have been hit with injuries at nearly every position on their roster, and starting center Mike Pouncey is the latest Charger to go down. Losing your starting center is huge because he's the guy that's out there scanning defenses and calling out protection schemes – as well as having his hands on the ball each and every play – so it's not like the Chargers don't have their own adversity on the injury front to deal with as well.

All these absences have predictably had an effect on where this SNF total was going to come out, as 41.5 is the number that the game opened at, and it's stayed relatively static all week with about 65% support on the 'under.' And at least on paper, the 'under' does tend to make a lot of sense. You've got two losing teams, one on their third QB of the season, both marred by numerous injuries offensively, and because of all that, neither averages more than the 20.6 points per game the Chargers put up. Pittsburgh comes in at 19.8 PPG on the year, so a total around 41 makes a lot of sense, and to many it makes a lot of sense to go 'under' as well given the extenuating circumstances.

Yet, at the same time, the Chargers have turned the ball over four different times this year inside the 5-yard line, and have shot themselves in the foot all year long with turnovers. LA has turned the ball over eight times this year with the vast majority directly taking points off the board for them. Sloppy play like that is why they come into this game with a losing record, and if they are able to clean up those things this week, I think we could see them look like the team that made it to the Divisional round last January.

On the flip side, Hodges is a relative unknown other then what we saw from him in his relief appearance last week. And while fear of the unknown in all aspects of life tends to have us shy away from those scenarios, you listen to the market here and they've already decided that he's going to be in well over his head this week. It's 'under' recommendations everywhere in the industry, and I'm just not sure this game will be as easy as that.

Sure, Hodges could end up being well over his head and look like the undrafted QB that he is, but him being on unknown commodity also hurts LA's defensive gameplanning because they really don't have a great idea of what to expect. That means the defensive strategy is probably going to look very vanilla early on to leave plenty of room for adjustments, and that in itself isn't an 'over' killer.

Side Spiel

Hodges being an unknown, and all the injuries across the board have me ignoring this side completely out of simply not knowing what to expect. You take away all the turnovers LA has had in critical spots this year and they probably do deserve to be laying about a TD that they are, but at the same time, they've got next to nothing in terms of home field advantage at that stadium, and Pittsburgh may be 1-4 SU, but their last three losses have come by a grand total of nine points.

If Hodges looks like the deer-in-headlights QB that seemingly the world expects him to be, the Chargers likely get the cover. If he doesn't and looks like at least a capable backup in this league, Pittsburgh could keep it close. I'm not about to venture a guess on what this game script turns out to be, so good luck to those of you who are venturing out on a side play for this game.

Final Thoughts

I will venture a guess on the idea that Hodges isn't going to struggle nearly as much as the majority in this industry believe, especially if he gets to see vanilla coverages for the first 15-30 minutes. Yes, the Chargers defense has been great all year in allowing 18.8 points per game, but in each one of those, they knew how to prepare and what to expect from the opposing QB/offense. That's not the case here, and I would not be surprised to see Hodges and the Steelers throw some wrinkles at the Chargers early to keep them off-balanced. If that happens, points should come in a hurry, because the Steelers organization definitely saw enough from Hodges at the collegiate level to give him a contract. Pittsburgh believes he has the skill set to help this organization if he were needed, and right now he's needed.

At the same time, the Chargers offense should be able to clean up these mistakes that have plagued them in recent losses, and make the most of their scoring opportunities. LA has scored 30 points in both of their SU victories this year, so if you do believe the Chargers win this game – as the point-spread would suggest – how can you not figure that LA won't threaten that 30-point barrier offensively here?

The Steelers defense has allowed at least 24 points to every team they've faced this year that's got at least one victory in 2019 – sorry Bengals fans – and that number has been hit by Steelers opponents in both of Pittsburgh's road games this year.

Finally, we can't forget that SNF games this year are a perfect 6-0 'under' this year, and while 'under' supporters will use that as more evidence for that selection, I view it as a negative in that regard. Everyone already wants the 'under' in this game because of the injury situation on both sides, and then there is the confirmation bias on the 'under' run on SNF. To me, that sets up as almost a perfect storm to be contrarian as contrarian gets, and go 'over' this number in a heartbeat. The fact that this game looks like an easy 'under' to the world only makes me feel stronger about doing that too.

So it's not like I haven't been wrong before, and I'll be wrong plenty more in the future, but I've got to give the benefit of the doubt to the Steelers organization in terms of prepping Hodges for this start and to have a play calling strategy that gives him the best chance to succeed. At the same time, I've got to give the benefit of the doubt to a QB like Philip Rivers that he and the rest of the Chargers offense can clean up their turnover issues sooner rather then later and start putting more TD's on the board.

I fell victim to believing last week's SNF game with KC and their high octane offense would be the one to crack the goose egg on 'overs' for SNF this year, but it was probably always going to be a game that everyone least expects to do so that actually does it. This Steelers game with a 3rd/4th string QB at the helm and a banged up Chargers team definitely fits that profile.

Best Bet: Over 41.5

[StarDust Bum]

Circa Picks - Week 6
October 12, 2019
By VI News

Westgate SuperContest Consensus - Week 6

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4 · Week 5

Week 6

1) Jacksonville -1.5 (696)

2) Tennessee +2.5 (521)

3) Cleveland +1.5 (486)

4) Seattle -1.5 (468)

5) Minnesota -3 (463)

CIRCA - WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Giants (+17) 53 New England (-17) 144
Carolina (-2) 430 Tampa Bay (+2) 210
Cincinnati (+11) 269 Baltimore (-11) 128
Seattle (-1.5) 468 Cleveland (+1.5) 486
Houston (+4) 301 Kansas City (-4) 423
New Orleans (+1.5) 375 Jacksonville (-1.5) 696
Philadelphia (+3) 322 Minnesota (-3) 463
Washington (-3) 344 Miami (+3) 86
San Francisco (+3.5) 444 L.A. Rams (-3.5) 441
Atlanta (-2.5) 358 Arizona (+2.5) 177
Dallas (-7) 430 N.Y. Jets (+7) 193
Tennessee (+2.5) 521 Denver (-2.5) 216
Pittsburgh (+7) 439 L.A. Chargers (-7) 143
Detroit (+4) 345 Green Bay (-4) 325

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 6
October 12, 2019
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4 · Week 5


Week 6

1) L.A. Rams -3 (1225)

2) Jacksonville -1.5 (1111)

3) Seattle -1 (932)

4) Minnesota -3 (858)

5) Dallas -7 (811)

SUEPRCONTEST - WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Giants (+17) 103 New England (-17) 308
Carolina (-2.5) 656 Tampa Bay (+2.5) 477
Cincinnati (+11) 472 Baltimore (-11) 256
Seattle (-1) 932 Cleveland (+1) 744
Houston (+4.5) 648 Kansas City (-4.5) 613
New Orleans (+1.5) 810 Jacksonville (-1.5) 1111
Philadelphia (+3) 642 Minnesota (-3) 858
Washington (-3.5) 279 Miami (+3.5) 237
San Francisco (+3) 457 L.A. Rams (-3) 1225
Atlanta (-2.5) 628 Arizona (+2.5) 392
Dallas (-7) 811 N.Y. Jets (+7) 347
Tennessee (+2) 784 Denver (-2) 486
Pittsburgh (+6.5) 419 L.A. Chargers (-6.5) 486
Detroit (+4) 675 Green Bay (-4) 679

SUPERCONTEST - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 3-2 6-4 60%
3 3-2 9-6 60%
4 2-3 11-9 55%
5 3-2 14-11 56%

[Udog]

NFL Sunday Week 6 odds and line moves: Despite spread drop, book needs Texans vs Chiefs
Patrick Everson

Deshaun Watson's Houston squad opened as 8-point underdogs for Sunday's game at Kansas City, and the line dropped to -4. But The SuperBook still needs the Texans, as the public piles on the Chiefs.

NFL Week 6 Sunday features a clash of dynamic quarterbacks, in a game seeing reverse line movement. We check in on the action for that contest and three others, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -8; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4

Kansas City was certainly expected to remain among the league’s unbeaten, but got an unpleasant surprise in Week 5. The Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) went off as 10.5-point home favorites against Indianapolis in the Sunday nighter, but lost outright 19-13.

Houston has lacked consistency thus far, but the Deshaun Watson-led offense was certainly on the mark in Week 5. The Texans (3-2 SU and ATS) cooked up a 50-plus burger against Atlanta, including 37 second-half points in a 53-32 victory as 4-point home faves.

The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -8 before their Sunday night tilt, took the line off the board during that game, then reopened -6.5 Monday morning. The line since plunged to -4, but looks can be deceiving here.

“We definitely need the Texans,” Osterman said of this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. “Sharps have been on the Texans, but it’s fair to say the Chiefs are the most popular public team. With all Kansas City’s injuries and Mahomes’ ankle, it makes sense that the line moved the way it did. But there’s no shortage of people willing to bet on the Chiefs.

“With Mahomes playing, getting the Chiefs at less than a touchdown, Joe Public is all over that.”

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles heads into this 4:05 p.m. ET start on a two-game skid. In Week 5, the Rams battled back and forth with Seattle, losing 30-29 while cashing as 1.5-point road underdogs in the Thursday night game.

San Francisco is among the last of the league’s unbeatens, joining New England in the rare air. The 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) pounded Cleveland 31-3 in the Week 5 Monday nighter, easily cashing as 5-point home favorites.

This line was off the board during the Niners’ victory, and when it reposted Tuesday morning, it tightened 1.5 points to Rams -3.5.

“We’ve taken a lot on the Niners at +3 (even money), but the liability isn’t huge,” Osterman said. “Respected money on the 49ers early, but there’s been some buyback on the Rams all the way. We need the Rams for a little bit.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -3; Move: -3.5

Philadelphia got back on track over the past two weeks, winning and cashing to tie Dallas top the NFC East. In Week 5, the Eagles (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) drummed the New York Jets 31-6 laying 14 points at home.

Minnesota hopes to end its trend thus far of alternating wins and losses. The Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS) went to MetLife Stadium as 5.5-point favorites in Week 5 and coasted to a 28-10 victory over the Giants.

“The Vikings were at -3 (even), now they’re at -3.5 flat,” Osterman said of line movement for a 1 p.m. ET start. “We’re getting a lot more Eagles support from the public and a little sharp money on the Vikings. For the game, we need the Eagles, but if the Vikings cover, it would knock out a bunch of parlays.”

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins – Open: -3.5; Move: -4

Winless Miami gets its best chance to break through, facing another winless team in a 1 p.m. showdown of sorts. The Dolphins (0-4 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 31-6 loss at Dallas catching 16 points in Week 4.

Washington is in turmoil, firing coach Jay Gruden on Monday after an 0-5 SU start (1-4 ATS). A day earlier, the Redskins got on the board first against New England with a first-quarter touchdown, but didn’t score again in a 33-7 setback getting 15.5 points.

“We’ve taken some Redskins money. We were at -3.5 (even) Thursday, took a $10,000 bet on Washington and went to -3.5 flat, and now we’re at -4,” Osterman said. “We’re definitely gonna need the Dolphins. I don’t see anybody who wants to bet on the Dolphins. That’ll be a decent-size decision by the time the game kicks off.”

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 6
Tony Mejia

Panthers (-2.5/47.5) vs. Buccaneers, 9:30 p.m. ET, NFLN: The Raiders stunned the Bears in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium’s maiden NFL voyage last week. This NFC South showdown ensures we won’t see a major upset but we’ll hopefully get another exciting, competitive game. Tampa Bay is giving up a true home game here as they they attempt to sweep the season series from the Panthers, having taken advantage of a rough second half from Cam Newton to post a 20-14 Week 2 Thursday night win. Christian McCaffrey was denied a go-ahead touchdown at the 1-yard line late in that game but hasn’t been stopped effectively since, posting over 180 yards in three consecutive games, which includes a 237-yard, three-touchdown effort in last week’s win over Jacksonville.

Kyle Allen has benefited from McCaffrey’s brilliance in being able to settle in and comes in 3-0 in place of Newton. Jameis Winston has thrown for 969 yards and nine touchdowns against just two interceptions over the past three games since beating Carolina but has only gotten top receiver Mike Evans on track in one of Tampa’s five games to date. Evans failed to catch a pass and was only targeted three times in last week’s loss in New Orleans, so Winston is going to go out of his way to ensure he gets going early. Mother Nature will also have to supply permission for Evans to truly get involved since rain is expected in North London throughout most of the contest. Carolina has had to do some reshuffling on both sides of the ball with guard Trai Turner still sidelined and DT Kawann Short going down for the season. Tampa also has offensive line issues to mask but got good news in that NFL sack leader Shaquil Barrett (9) is expected to play through an oblique injury.

Bengals at Ravens (-11/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Since opening with that 59-10 rout in Miami, the Ravens haven’t covered a single spread. Last week’s OT win at the Steelers ended in a push ATS and snapped a two-game losing streak after surrendering 73 combined points in falling against the Chiefs and Browns. With games against the Seahawks and Patriots scheduled the next two weeks, it’s important that they don’t overlook the winless Bengals as they visit on what’s expected to be a cloudy day in Baltimore. The ‘over’ is 4-1 on the season in Baltimore games as Lamar Jackson and the offense have continued producing, helping average 32.2 points per game for the season.

Cincinnati scored a season-high 23 points in falling at home against Kyler Murray-led Arizona last week. That number matches the Ravens’ lowest-scoring output of the season. Zac Taylor’s offense has struggled to take shape and has clearly missed the presence of top WR A.J. Green, who will remain out in Week 6. Offensive line play has been a hinderance that could resurface in Baltimore since veteran tackle Andre Smith has been ruled out in addition to Cordy Glenn (concussion), who hasn’t played in nearly two months. Andy Dalton will have to rely on the screen game while picking his spots on when to take shots downfield considering he isn’t likely to get a lot of protection. Ravens rookie WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has been ruled out with an ankle issue while safety Tony Jefferson was ruled out the rest of the season after tearing his ACL last week. Cincy is going to be thin up front with Carlos Dunlap, Kerry Winn and Ryan Glasnow all ruled out.

Seahawks at Browns (PK/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: There will be some wind gusts for Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield to deal with, but sunny weather means both should settle in as they attempt to produce in a matchup that ranks among Sunday’s most highly anticipated games. Seattle has scored 27 or more points in four straight but must overcome issues up front against a Myles Garrett-led pass rush since tackle Duane Brown (biceps) isn’t expected to play and guards D.J. Fluker and Ethan Pocic have already been ruled out. Wilson will likely be forced into buying time for his receivers and will have the benefit of RB Chris Carson lining up beside him despite limited participation in practice this past week due to shoulder trouble. Seattle has won and covered in both road games, but the Browns represent a step up in caliber of competition from the Steelers and Cardinals.

Mayfield and the Cleveland offense looked terrible on Monday night, scoring just three points in a 31-3 loss to San Francisco, the team’s second setback by 28 or more points this season. The Browns’ defense will again be without top corner Denzel Ward and impact rookie Greedy Williams, leaving the team vulnerable in the back if Wilson is successful in buying time to throw. Mayfield is looking to find a rhythm with Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry since he comes in completing just 55.9 percent of passes and a league-high eight interceptions. Head coach Freddie Kitchens still has the support of a fan base that’s hoping for the best, but if the production doesn’t pick up -- the Browns have scored just 13 points apiece in both home losses thus far – expect the Dawg Pound to start turning against him.

Texans at Chiefs (-4/55), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Patrick Mahomes made the decision early in the week that he’d be fine for this one after in-game ankle injuries limited his mobility in contributing to last Sunday night’s upset loss to Indianapolis, but we’re about to find out just how much mobility has been restored. WR Tyreek Hill is hoping to return from a collarbone injury suffered in the season opener, which would really help Mahomes since WR Sammy Watkins has been ruled out with a hamstring issue and offensive line play has been a concern.

Conditions for a shootout between Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, picked 10th and 12th in the 2017 NFL draft, look good. Minimal wind will be present and temperatures will be in the low 60s at Arrowhead, as the Texans look to build on a 53-point outburst in beating the Falcons last week. Houston has performed well on the road, covering in losing at the gun in New Orleans in the season’s opening Monday night game while winning outright at the Chargers three weeks ago. Will Fuller stepped up last week as defenses continue to focus on DeAndre Hopkins, while TE Jordan Akins has also flashed. New addition Kenny Stills is hoping to return from a hamstring injury and will be a game-time decision. The Chiefs are hoping to bounce back from their lowest-scoring output since November of 2017, before Mahomes took over Alex Smith.

Saints at Jaguars (-2.5/42.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: All eyes are on the availability of Saints star WR Alvin Kamara, who made the trip to Jacksonville despite an ankle injury and is expected to play. He’s made life easier on QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill, so if he’s unable to go, the Jaguars would offer tremendous value as a slight favorite. Following home wins over the Cowboys and Bucs in which the defense made sizeable contributions, Sean Payton is hoping that Bridgewater can return to his home state and build off becoming the first Saints’ QB not named Drew Brees to throw four touchdown passes in last week’s 31-24 conquest of Tampa Bay. His task will be made more difficult if Jalen Ramsey follows through on his intent to play, returning from back pain that intensified after he requested a trade and expressed his displeasure with the organization.

The offense has unexpectedly become the focal point for Jacksonville due to the emergence of rookie QB Gardner Minshew and top target D.J. Chark, not to mention the fact a slimmer, more explosive Leonard Fournette has had some impressive performances. Minshew is dealing with a groin issue but will play, hoping to foster a new connection with a tight end since the productive James O’Shaughnessy tore his ACL. He was leading the Jags in red-zone targets. Backup tight end Josh Oliver is also out, so Jacksonville is really thin at that spot. Conditions will be clear in North Florida with temperatures in the mid-to-high 80’s expected.

Eagles at Vikings (-3.5/44.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The loser of this game will find themselves unexpectedly 3-3, so this should be a physical, competitive affair between two of the more highly-regarded teams in the wide open NFC. Carson Wentz has produced three games of 30 or more points despite injuries to multiple key receivers, so he should be fine without DeSean Jackson back. Trusted RB Darren Sproles is also going to be sidelined, which means more work for Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders, both of whom have made strides of late.

Philadelphia has had issues with its secondary, which gives Kirk Cousins an opportunity to prove he can handle the challenge of performing well in this type of game. Cousins has really struggled against teams with winning records and was called the weak link of the Vikes’ offense this week by Eagles LB Zack Brown. He’ll have Adam Thielen in the mix after connecting with him seven times for 130 yards and two scores last week and needs to continue to keep Stefon Diggs happy in order to help alleviate concerns over his early-season struggles. Philadelphia wants to keep Dalvin Cook from creating manageable second and third downs for Cousins’ and the offense, so expect the playcalling on first to be the x-factor in this one since the Eagles have excelled against the run thus far.

Redskins (-4/42.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This brutal matchup between winless teams features teams that have also managed to be 1-8 against the spread despite the benefit of large numbers placed by bookmakers hoping to land some action against substantial favorites. The ‘Skins dumped Jay Gruden, putting Bill Callahan back in the spotlight as the interim coach. The difference between these two organizations seems to be that ownership wants to win while the Dolphins are happily tanking for Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, the top prize in this upcoming draft.

Callahan is expected to bench QB Colt McCoy, last week’s starter, in favor of Case Keenum and rookie Dwayne Haskins. Washington has been outscored 57-10 in losses to the Giants and Patriots the past few weeks, so picking up a demoralized group with a coaching change and the opportunity to hit the reset button should produce early results. I’d ride the visitors in a first-half bet here against a Miami squad that has been outscored 163-26 thus far. The Dolphins are coming off a bye week, their first under new head coach Brian Flores, but remain banged-up. Injuries to safety Reshad Jones and a number of corners could against leave Miami compromised in the secondary. Plenty of emply seats are expected in Miami Gardens.

Falcons at Cardinals (-2.5/52.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: Dan Quinn got the dreaded vote of confidence from owner Arthur Blank last weekend after the Falcons’ ugly loss to the Texans, so there’s no question that the pressure is on him to yield results or immediately or risk failing getting out of this month with his job. Since blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI, Atlanta has gone 18-19 in regular-season games and enters this contest in Glendale favored regardless considering the Cardinals are still on the ground floor of Kliff Kingsbury’s rebuilding project while the Falcons are supposed to be a finished product. We’re going to see if that ends up with a new meaning in that they’re finished under Quinn once this one is over.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are coming of the first win of the Kingsbury era after holding on in Cincinnati. This will be the last game the Cardinals will play without suspended corner Patrick Peterson, which could spell trouble since Matt Ryan does have options out there since Arizona will likely have no choice but to shade coverage to Julio Jones with their top corner availability, which could mean big days for Mohamed Sanu or Calvin Ridley. The Falcons went from Houston to Arizona and have spent significant time together hoping to foster a better connection, so this is a big game for them. Arizona starts a pair of rookies in the back and has ranked near the bottom in most pass defense categories without its most talented player.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at CLE 01:00 PM
SEA +1.0
U 45.5

NO at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC -2.5
U 43.0

PHI at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -3.5
U 45.0

CIN at BAL 01:00 PM
CIN +10.5
O 46.5

WAS at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +5.5
U 42.0

HOU at KC 01:00 PM
KC -3.5
U 54.5

[StarDust Bum]

ATL at ARI 04:05 PM
ATL -3.0
O 52.5

SF at LAR 04:05 PM
LAR -3.0
O 49.5

DAL at NYJ 04:25 PM
NYJ +7.5
U 43.5

TEN at DEN 04:25 PM
DEN -1.5
U 41.0

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BET:

PIT at LAC 08:20 PM

LAC -6.0

U 42.5