Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Thursday, October 10

NY Giants @ New England

Game 103-104
October 10, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
126.056
New England
144.884
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 19
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 16 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-16 1/2); Under


Sunday, October 13

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 251-252
October 13, 2019 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
136.923
Tampa Bay
131.715
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-2); Under

New Orleans @ Jacksonville

Game 259-260
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
136.421
Jacksonville
130.855
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+1 1/2); Over

Houston @ Kansas City

Game 257-258
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
135.622
Kansas City
136.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+5 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Cleveland

Game 255-256
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
132.689
Cleveland
129.531
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 3
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+2 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Minnesota

Game 261-262
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.274
Minnesota
138.706
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-3); Under

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Game 253-254
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
123.261
Baltimore
131.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 8
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 12
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+12); Over

Washington @ Miami

Game 263-264
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
119.311
Miami
111.792
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3 1/2); Under

San Francisco @ LA Rams

Game 265-266
October 13, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.568
LA Rams
140.778
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 8
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 4
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-4); Under

Atlanta @ Arizona

Game 267-268
October 13, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
127.188
Arizona
122.304
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-1 1/2); Under

Dallas @ NY Jets

Game 269-270
October 13, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
130.894
NY Jets
119.215
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 8 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-8 1/2); Over

Tennessee @ Denver

Game 271-272
October 13, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
128.931
Denver
133.658
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2); Over

Pittsburgh @ LA Chargers

Game 273-274
October 13, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
132.968
LA Chargers
128.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+7); Over


Monday, October 14

Detroit @ Green Bay

Game 275-276
October 14, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
133.821
Green Bay
135.077
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 5
47
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+5); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 10

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NY GIANTS (2 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 0) - 10/10/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 265-202 ATS (+42.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 265-202 ATS (+42.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 196-148 ATS (+33.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-86 ATS (+31.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, October 13

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CAROLINA (3 - 2) vs. TAMPA BAY (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 84-55 ATS (+23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 5) at BALTIMORE (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (4 - 1) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 38-62 ATS (-30.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 45-69 ATS (-30.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 1) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 2) at MINNESOTA (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (0 - 5) at MIAMI (0 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 63-97 ATS (-43.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
MIAMI is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 0) at LA RAMS (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
LA RAMS is 197-241 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 197-241 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 142-190 ATS (-67.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-104 ATS (-43.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-103 ATS (-42.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 4) at ARIZONA (1 - 3 - 1) - 10/13/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (3 - 2) at NY JETS (0 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (2 - 3) at DENVER (1 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 118-156 ATS (-53.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 62-89 ATS (-35.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (+24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 14

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DETROIT (2 - 1 - 1) at GREEN BAY (4 - 1) - 10/14/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 111-82 ATS (+20.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 195-140 ATS (+41.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 10

New England Patriots
New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
New England is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games at home
New England is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing NY Giants
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
NY Giants is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing New England
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Giants is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England


Sunday, October 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Carolina is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 13 games
Kansas City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Kansas City is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Kansas City's last 17 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Houston is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Cleveland's last 23 games at home
Cleveland is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Seattle's last 14 games
Seattle is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 5-10-2 ATS in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
New Orleans is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Washington
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games on the road
Washington is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Miami
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-7-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games at home
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
LA Rams is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
LA Rams is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
LA Rams is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 7-14-1 SU in its last 22 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Denver Broncos
Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Denver's last 14 games
Denver is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Denver is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games at home
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 10 games when playing Denver
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 9 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Dallas
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 15 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 16-7-1 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers


Monday, October 14

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

[StarDust Bum]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 6 odds: Timing is everything for Eagles-Vikings spread
Jason Logan

Minnesota -3 has been discounted from -110 flat to as low as +104 at some sports, as bookies try to lure action on the home side without moving off the key number of a field goal after early bets pounded Philadelphia.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

As we head into Week 6 and the onset of autumn cools off those northern states, more outside factors – beyond action at the sportsbook – like mounting injuries and bad weather will be impacting the odds and the line adjustments.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (-6.5, 41)

The Steelers could be down to their third-string QB for this Sunday night trip to Los Angeles after second-stringer Mason Rudolph was knocked out cold versus the Ravens in Week 5 and remains in concussion protocol as of the start of the week.

Pittsburgh was left with undrafted QB Devlin Hodges as the passing option and that has the Steelers sitting at +6.5 while the betting world waits. With the way the total is starting to tick down – 43.5 to 41 points – it would seem that early Over/Under action is expecting the worst for Pittsburgh’s QB situation.

The Bolts are back home off a rough loss at Denver last Sunday. Los Angeles has just two wins on the year: one in overtime versus the Colts in Week 1 (a game it should have lost if not for bad kicking from Indianapolis) and one over Miami in Week 4 (so, you know…).

But if you believe in the Chargers, who are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a loss, and given the QB questions in the Steel City, you can grab the home team under the key number of a touchdown. It’s already flashing to Bolts -7 at some books, so make sure you get the fave as low as you can.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3, 43.5)

It would seem the Eagles’ win over a terrible New York team holds more weight with the betting public than the Vikings’ win over a terrible New York team. At least, that’s what the early adjustment to the vig for this matchup says.

Minnesota -3 has been discounted from -110 flat to as low as +104 at some sports, as bookies try to lure action on the home side without moving off the key number of a field goal after early bets pounded Philadelphia.

This is a tough game to handicap. The Eagles went into Lambeau and took a game from the Packers in the second half, but put in a less-than-impressive effort versus the Jets, relying on two defensive scores to make a 17-6 win look much better as a 31-6 victory.

The Vikes are a tougher test on defense than Gang Green and showed they could actually put force behind the football, let go, and have someone catch it before it hit the ground (also known as a pass) in Week 5. If you’re putting your money on Minny, wait and see if you can get -2.5 – which is starting to bubble up at some books.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS

Oh boy, the Browns might just stink again. A week removed from torching the Baltimore defense for 40 points, Cleveland crapped out a lonely field goal in a Monday nightmare at San Francisco, losing 31-3.

It was a tough spot for the Browns, playing back-to-back road games and three away contests in four week, and now the team comes back to Cleveland, where it last left fans wanting after a dismal 13-point effort in a loss to the Rams in Week 3.

Baker Mayfield was a dismal 8 for 22 for just 100 passing yards, throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice (one lost) in the loss to San Francisco. Now, the Browns host Seattle on a short week versus an opponent who has enjoyed a mini bye after winning at home versus L.A. on Thursday.

Seattle is nowhere near its defensive prowess of years past, but the offense can pound the football and chew up the clock. Cleveland allowed the Niners to run for 275 yards on 40 carries and dominate TOP for nearly 38 minutes. The Seahawks handed off 43 times against Los Angeles and hogged the ball for more than 35 minutes in Week 5. That same approach versus the Browns could keep the clock ticking and scoring at a minimum.

If you like a low-scoring finish in Ohio this Sunday, jump on the Under 47.5 as the public will have a nasty smell in their nose after watching the Browns bomb on Monday.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 49 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

On the other side of that Monday Night Football finale in Week 5 are the 49ers, who jumped all over the Browns and didn’t stop until the whistle blew on their 31-3 victory. San Francisco is getting it done on both sides of the ball, especially on offense where they now average 31.8 points per game – second in the NFL.

The Rams are slow out of the blocks this season (only team in the NFL without a first-quarter touchdown) but seem to shake that slumber in the second half. Los Angeles did just that against Seattle last Thursday, putting up 16 points in the final 30 minutes, and Jared Goff is notorious for his home/road production, boasting a 96.3 QBR in Los Angeles versus an 89.3 QBR as a visitor.

This number is already rising, moving from 48.5 to 49, and some books dealing 49.5. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a 50-plus total by the time this one closes Sunday afternoon. Regardless of that movement, you can’t discount the 49ers defense (ranked second in total yards) or a Rams stop unit that despite allowing some bigger numbers, is giving up 5.4 yards per play to foes (10th lowest).

For those leaning Under, wait it out and see how high the public pushes this one before buying a low-scoring – or lower-scoring – finish between these NFC West rivals.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Betting Stats through Week 5:

Road Teams: 48-29-1 ATS
Home Teams: 29-48-1 ATS

Favorites: 31-46-1 ATS
Underdogs: 46-31-1 ATS

Home Faves: 17-34-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 12-14 ATS

Road Faves: 14-12 ATS
Road Dogs: 34-17-1 ATS

O/U: 36-4


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NYJ QB Sam Darnold (mono) has been cleared by doctors to play in Week 6 at home vs. the Cowboys.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— Ravens covered once in last nine division games.

— Green Bay covered 10 of its last 13 games.

— Giants are 7-2 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Jaguars are 4-22 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC teams.

— Minnesota is 21-5-1 in last 27 games as a home favorite.

— Chargers covered twice in last 10 games as a home favorite.


Quote of the Day
“I thought it might happen last week after the Giants game — based on reports. And [the Redskins] never said, ‘You’re not getting fired,’ so I assumed I was. I had a good staff there, and hopefully they can make it work in the last 11 games and stick around. It’s a good group.”
Jay Gruden

Wednesday’s quiz
Burgess Meredith was famous for playing Rocky Balboa’s trainer in the Rocky movies; what villain did he play on the old Batman TV series?

Tuesday’s quiz
Kansas City Chiefs were the first team to both win (IV) and lose (I) a Super Bowl.

Monday’s quiz
Russell Wilson played college football for NC State, Wisconsin.

*******************

Wednesday’s Den: Notes on all the NFC teams…….

Arizona:
— Cardinals have only one takeaway in their last four games (-2 in TO’s for year).
— Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in last 25 games as a home underdog.
— Road team covered their last four games.

Atlanta:
— Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives.
— Atlanta averaged 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of their five games.
— Falcons covered only four of their last 19 road games.

Carolina:
— Panthers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 ppg, with Kyle Allen at QB.
— Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games.
— Panthers ran for only 39 yards in Week 2’s 20-14 home loss to Tampa Bay.

Chicago:
— Bears allowed total of 45 points in Weeks 1-4, then gave up 24 points to Oakland Sunday.
— Chicago was 8-13 on 3rd down vs Washington; other four games? 15-53
— Bears are 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five post-bye games.

Dallas:
— First three games: 18-31 on third down. Last two games: 6-19.
— Cowboys were outscored 26-3 in first half of their last two games.
— Dak Prescott: 35-18 as an NFL starter; 24-5 vs losing teams, 11-13 vs winning teams.

Detroit:
— All four Detroit games have been decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Lions have nine takeaways but also six giveaways in four games this year.
— Detroit won/covered six of its last seven post-bye games.

Green Bay:
— Packers are +7 in turnovers, won/covered four of first five games.
— Green Bay is 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite.
— Packers scored 88 points in first half of games, 37 in second half.

LA Rams:
— Rams scored 69 points in last two games, but lost both of them.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-7 ATS away from home.
— Average points scored in 2nd half of Ram games this year: 34.8

Minnesota:
— Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games; Bears held them to 40.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points.

NY Giants:
— Giants scored 32-24 points in their wins, 17 or less in their losses.
— Big Blue is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Giants covered 10 of their last 13 games on natural grass.

New Orleans:
— Saints are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games.
— NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays.
— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points.

Philadelphia:
— Eagles are 3-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-2 when they do not.
— Philly is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
— Eagles have converted 37-70 third down plays this year.

San Francisco:
— SF ran ball for 702 yards in their last three games.
— 49ers have 11 takeaways in four games, but also eight turnovers.
— Last time SF was NFC’s last unbeaten team was 1984.

Seattle:
— Seahawks scored 27+ points in each of their last four games.
— Seattle is just 21-59 on 3rd down, but scored 98 points on 16 red zone drives.
— Seahawks are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

Tampa Bay:
— Buccaneers allowed 31+ points in four of their five games.
— Tampa Bay has eight takeaways (+6) in its last four games.
— Average total in Bucs’ last three games: 71.0.

Washington:
— Redskins didn’t score in second half of their last two games.
— Washington is 0-5, with last four losses all by 10+ points.
— Would expect them to run ball with Callahan the new coach.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Giants (2-3) @ Patriots (5-0)— Since 2000, rookie QB’s are 4-7 ATS (0-11 SU) vs New England. Giants won two of three Jones starts, converting 22-42 3rd down plays. Giants scored 32-24 points in their wins, 17 or less in their losses; Big Blue is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a road dog. Three of their last four games stayed under. Patriots are 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS; they’re 16-4 ATS in last 20 games as a double digit favorite- over last decade, NE is 47-28-3 when laying points at home. Patriots allowed only two offensive TD’s on 61 drives this season. Teams split 12 meetings, including last four played here; Giants won both Super Bowl meetings. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.

Panthers (3-2) vs Buccaneers (2-3) (@ London)— Carolina is 3-0 with Allen at QB, scoring 29.3 ppg; they scored 10 TD’s on 33 drives, after scoring three TD’s on 26 drives in Newton’s 2 starts. Bucs (+6.5) posted 20-14 upset in Charlotte in Week 2, holding Panthers to 39 RY, just their 4th win in last 13 series games; teams combined to convert only 5-26 third down plays. Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games- they covered five of last six pre-bye games. Tampa Bay allowed 31+ points in four of five games, giving up 12 TD’s on last 33 drives; they split last four game, despite being plus in turnovers all four games. Bucs are on road for third week in row; they’re 14-12 ATS in last 26 games as an NFC South underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

Cam Newton (foot) has been ruled out for this weeks game vs Tampa in London.


***************************


Giants Injury Updates for Thursday

RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) Out
RB Wayne Gallman (concussion) Out
TE Evan Engram (knee) Doubtful
WR Sterling Shepard (concussion) Out

[StarDust Bum]

[SIZE=2]NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Bills 4-1 ATS
t1. Packers 4-1 ATS
t1. Rams 4-1 ATS
t4. Niners 3-1 ATS
t4. Lions 3-1 ATS
t4. Colts 3-1-1 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Dolphins 0-4 ATS
t31. Redskins 1-4 ATS
t31. Falcons 1-4 ATS
t31. Ravens 1-4 ATS
t28. Eagles 1-3 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


TATE OF EMERGENCY

The New York Giants’ No. 1 receiver Sterling Shepard will reportedly be out for a while as he is in the league’s concussion protocol. This will mean Golden Tate will play exclusively out of the slot, one week after returning from suspension and catching three balls for 13 yards.

The perceived increase in the passing game works in our advantage as we may get a higher receiving total for Tate ahead of his extremely difficult matchup versus the New England Patriots’ slot corner Jonathan Jones.

Jones has the best matchup advantage of the game per Pro Football Focus and owns an impressive defensive grade of 90 with a 23 percent catch rate and a minuscule 0.32 yards per route covered.

It’s going to be a tough go for rookie quarterback Daniel Jones as Bill Belichick is 17-5 in games against rookie quarterbacks, including 11-0 at home. Take the Under on Tate’s 54.5 receiving yard total.


TEAM TOTAL TREASURE

Last week we went 5-1 on full-time team totals and it has quickly become one of our favorite early-week prop markets. Here are a couple of our favorites.

San Francisco 49ers (22.5) @ L.A. Rams: We hate putting our money on a recent performance, but with the 49ers averaging the second-most points per game at 31.8 and the Rams having allowed 85 points in their last two, we don’t mind. We know that San Fran will be on a short week and be without the services of Kyle Juszczyk, but the travel is short, and they only had to compete for 35 minutes on Monday night to get the win.

This is a perfect spot for Kyle Shanahan to beat the Rams using play-action off his amazing run scheme which is averaging 200 yards per game. L.A. owns the 24th-ranked DVOA pass defense and allowed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to combine for 752 passing yards over Weeks 4 and 5. Jump on the San Fran wagon and grab the Over.

Houston Texans (24.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: We have backed the Chiefs for three-straight weeks and have come up empty. Andy Reid’s team is just finding ways to beat themselves as they have turned the ball over too much and were very close to having two-straight losses heading into their Week 6 matchup.

Houston and Deshaun Watson are coming off an offensively historic win in Atlanta last week and will take their top-10-yards-per-rush attack to KC versus the Chiefs’ 30th ranked DVOA run defense. KC has already allowed Detroit, Baltimore, and Jacksonville to eclipse 24.5 points this year. Hit the Over 24.5 especially with the Texans scoring a TD in100 percent of their red-zone trips while on the road this year.


AGREE TO TENNESSEE

We may have a good read on the Tennessee Titans for the first time ever. We hit them as 3.5-point favs in Week 4 for a winner and faded them versus the Bills’ defense last week for another one. That means that it is time for the kings of inconsistency to continue this week in Denver versus the Broncos. If you didn’t know, the Titans tend to hurt bettors who bet solely on their previous week’s performance.

Mariota is 0-2 at home this year for just 332 yards and one touchdown but 2-1 for 779 yards and eight TDs with a 110.1 QB rating on the road. The Titans are also 2-0 ATS as road underdogs this year as it seems every week the road pups are hitting.

The Broncos are coming off their first win of the year last week and are 2.5-point favorites after facing spreads of +4.5, -2.5, +6, +3, and -3 — covering twice and zero times as the favorite. The Denver rush defense is also allowing 6.3 yards per carry at home which is only worse than...no, not the Dolphins but the Bengals.

We are getting on Tennessee at +2.5 now as it sits at +2 on a few other books.


RAVENS & DEMONS

The biggest story on Tuesday was the turd that Freddie Kitchens, Baker Mayfield, and the Browns dropped in San Fran on Monday night. We do like the value in a bounce back game for the Browns as the public will have the memory of Monday’s embarrassment fresh in their minds. Instead, we are going to look at a team that allowed that same Browns team to total 530 yards of offense for 40 points, just two weeks ago.

The Baltimore Ravens are giving up 32 points to opponents over their last three with injuries to the secondary having a lot to do with that. In that same three-game stretch, the blackbirds are giving up nearly 300 yards of passing and doing even worse at home, surrendering 333 yards through the air a game.

We know that Lamar Jackson and the offense can put up points, so we will avoid the 12-point spread, but there is no reason that the this week's opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, can’t clear their team totals of 17.5 points and first-half team total of 7.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— Ravens covered once in last nine division games.

— Green Bay covered 10 of its last 13 games.

— Giants are 7-2 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Jaguars are 4-22 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC teams.

— Minnesota is 21-5-1 in last 27 games as a home favorite.

— Chargers covered twice in last 10 games as a home favorite.


Quote of the Day
“I thought it might happen last week after the Giants game — based on reports. And [the Redskins] never said, ‘You’re not getting fired,’ so I assumed I was. I had a good staff there, and hopefully they can make it work in the last 11 games and stick around. It’s a good group.”
Jay Gruden

Wednesday’s quiz
Burgess Meredith was famous for playing Rocky Balboa’s trainer in the Rocky movies; what villain did he play on the old Batman TV series?

Tuesday’s quiz
Kansas City Chiefs were the first team to both win (IV) and lose (I) a Super Bowl.

Monday’s quiz
Russell Wilson played college football for NC State, Wisconsin.

*******************

Wednesday’s Den: Notes on all the NFC teams…….

Arizona:
— Cardinals have only one takeaway in their last four games (-2 in TO’s for year).
— Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in last 25 games as a home underdog.
— Road team covered their last four games.

Atlanta:
— Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives.
— Atlanta averaged 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of their five games.
— Falcons covered only four of their last 19 road games.

Carolina:
— Panthers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 ppg, with Kyle Allen at QB.
— Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games.
— Panthers ran for only 39 yards in Week 2’s 20-14 home loss to Tampa Bay.

Chicago:
— Bears allowed total of 45 points in Weeks 1-4, then gave up 24 points to Oakland Sunday.
— Chicago was 8-13 on 3rd down vs Washington; other four games? 15-53
— Bears are 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five post-bye games.

Dallas:
— First three games: 18-31 on third down. Last two games: 6-19.
— Cowboys were outscored 26-3 in first half of their last two games.
— Dak Prescott: 35-18 as an NFL starter; 24-5 vs losing teams, 11-13 vs winning teams.

Detroit:
— All four Detroit games have been decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Lions have nine takeaways but also six giveaways in four games this year.
— Detroit won/covered six of its last seven post-bye games.

Green Bay:
— Packers are +7 in turnovers, won/covered four of first five games.
— Green Bay is 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite.
— Packers scored 88 points in first half of games, 37 in second half.

LA Rams:
— Rams scored 69 points in last two games, but lost both of them.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-7 ATS away from home.
— Average points scored in 2nd half of Ram games this year: 34.8

Minnesota:
— Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games; Bears held them to 40.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points.

NY Giants:
— Giants scored 32-24 points in their wins, 17 or less in their losses.
— Big Blue is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Giants covered 10 of their last 13 games on natural grass.

New Orleans:
— Saints are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games.
— NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays.
— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points.

Philadelphia:
— Eagles are 3-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-2 when they do not.
— Philly is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
— Eagles have converted 37-70 third down plays this year.

San Francisco:
— SF ran ball for 702 yards in their last three games.
— 49ers have 11 takeaways in four games, but also eight turnovers.
— Last time SF was NFC’s last unbeaten team was 1984.

Seattle:
— Seahawks scored 27+ points in each of their last four games.
— Seattle is just 21-59 on 3rd down, but scored 98 points on 16 red zone drives.
— Seahawks are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

Tampa Bay:
— Buccaneers allowed 31+ points in four of their five games.
— Tampa Bay has eight takeaways (+6) in its last four games.
— Average total in Bucs’ last three games: 71.0.

Washington:
— Redskins didn’t score in second half of their last two games.
— Washington is 0-5, with last four losses all by 10+ points.
— Would expect them to run ball with Callahan the new coach.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Giants at Patriots
October 9, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Giants (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) saw their two-game winning streak come to a screeching halt in Sunday’s 28-10 home setback to the Vikings as 5 ½-point underdogs. New York won the first two starts made by rookie quarterback Daniel Jones against Tampa Bay and Washington, but the former Duke standout was limited to 182 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception.

The Vikings outgained the Giants from a yardage standpoint, 490-211, which is in stark contrast to the week before in which New York outgained Washington, 389-176 in the yardage category. Obviously, Minnesota was a huge step up from Washington in competition, but the Giants never led against the Vikings as the closest they came was trailing 10-7 in the second quarter before getting outscored 18-7 the rest of the way.

New York continues to play without running back Saquon Barkley, who missed his second consecutive game with a high ankle sprain. Barkley is likely out one again on Thursday night, as his presence his sorely missed after New York’s running game was limited to 64 yards on 20 carries against Minnesota. The Giants cashed the ‘under’ at home for the third time in three tries this season, while dropping to 5-14 in the past 19 games at Met Life Stadium dating back to 2017.

The Patriots (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) are the only undefeated team left in the AFC after blowing out the Redskins, 33-7 to cash as 15 ½-point road favorites. New England improved to 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, while limiting its fifth straight opponent to 14 points or fewer. The Patriots’ defense continues to excel by giving up a grand total of two offensive touchdowns, as Steven Sims, Jr. broke off a 65-yard touchdown run for Washington before New England scored 33 unanswered points.

Tom Brady rebounded from a tough performance in Week 4 against Buffalo to torch Washington’s porous defense for 348 yards and three touchdowns, while Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman hauled in eight receptions for 110 yards and a score. Running back Sony Michel put together his best game of the season by compiling 91 yards on 16 carries, including his third touchdown of 2019.

New England has jumped out to a 3-0 road record this season, which is a much better start than in its Super Bowl winning campaign of 2018. The Patriots didn’t record their third road victory last season until Week 12 against the Jets, as New England has started 3-0 away from Gillette Stadium for the fourth time in the last five seasons.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Patriots are riding an 18-game winning streak at Gillette Stadium dating back to 2017 with the last loss in Foxboro coming to the Panthers in Week 4 of that season. New England has posted a 14-4 ATS record during this span, which includes a 6-2 ATS mark when laying double-digits at home. One of those two losses when listed as a favorite of 10 points or more came in Week 3 against the Jets as 20 ½-point chalk in a 30-14 victory.

The Giants have fared well on the road against the number since Week 3 of 2018 by covering in eight of the last nine opportunities. The only ATS loss in this span came in the season opener to Dallas, while the Giants cashed in their previous away contest at Tampa Bay in Week 3 in the 32-31 comeback victory. The last time the Giants won outright as a double-digit road underdog came in 2017 as 13 ½-point ‘dogs in a 23-10 upset of Denver.

SERIES HISTORY

Not many people remember the recent regular season meetings between the Patriots and Giants, only the two Super Bowl matchups won by New York. The most memorable game played by these two teams came in Super Bowl XLII when the Giants stunned the undefeated Patriots, 17-14 as 12 ½-point underdogs. New York turned the trick again four years later in Super Bowl XLVI by rallying from a 17-9 deficit to knock off New England, 21-17 as three-point ‘dogs.

The Giants have covered the last five meetings in this series dating back to 2007, when they coincidentally hooked up in the final regular season game before doing battle in the Super Bowl. New England edged New York, 27-26 as seven-point road favorites in 2015 at Met Life Stadium in the most recent matchup. The Pats erased a 20-10 deficit, capped off by a Stephen Gostkowski 54-yard field goal with one second remaining, as Brady threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

TOTAL TALK

The ‘over’ has cashed in back-to-back weeks on Thursday but the oddsmakers aren’t expecting many points for this matchup. Chris David of VegasInsider.com provides his thoughts and lean on this week’s total.

“Based on what we’ve seen from the Patriots and their defense, it’s hard to imagine the Giants doing much offensively in this spot. New England has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 and it should be 5-0 if it wasn’t for two defensive scores allowed in their 30-14 home win over Jets in Week 3. The Giants did receive a bit of a spark from rookie Jones in his first two appearances but he was humbled last Sunday at home versus the Vikings,” said David.

“Expecting Jones and the Giants offense to improve on a short week in a hostile environment seems like a reach, plus New York is still banged-up with key injuries. The team total on New York is listed at 13 ½ and knowing New England hasn’t allowed an offense to eclipse that number in five games, going ‘under’ on the Giants would be my lean here.”

Laying double digits will be a common theme for New England this season and the club has developed a strong ‘under’ trend in these angles. Going back to last season, the Patriots are on a 6-1 ‘under’ run when listed as a double-digit favorite and that includes a 2-1 mark this season. Make a note that the ‘under’ is 10-0 in its last 10 road games when laying 10-plus points and we’ll likely see two spots left this season at the Jets and Bengals.

STARTING FAST (AND SLOW)

The Patriots have dominated defensively this season by allowing only two offensive touchdowns (both rushing), but New England has jumped out quickly by posting a 4-1 ATS record on first half bets. The only loss came to Washington as the Patriots led the Redskins, 12-7 at halftime laying 10 points. Meanwhile, the Giants have slumped to a 1-4 ATS mark in the first half this season, while trailing by double-digits in all four of those defeats. Coincidentally the biggest deficit the Giants have fallen into at halftime this season (18 points at Tampa Bay), New York actually came back to win in Jones’ first start.

THURSDAY NIGHT DOG SPECIAL

The underdogs have ruled on Thursdays this season in the NFL by putting together a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS mark. The only favorite to win a Thursday contest in 2019 was the Seahawks last week in a slim 30-29 victory after the Rams missed the game-winning field goal in the final seconds. Los Angeles cashed as 1 ½-point underdogs to mark the fifth consecutive cover by ‘dogs in Thursday night affairs, as the biggest ‘dog to cover was Tampa Bay in Week 2 getting 6 ½ points in a 20-14 triumph at Carolina.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in this week looking at the easy road so far for New England, “The schedule rates as the weakest in the league facing teams that are a combined 5-18 and four of those wins come from the Bills. New England won 16-10 in Buffalo, but in many ways they did not look like the superior team in that contest, out-gained 375-224, but getting a 4-1 turnover edge and a touchdown on a blocked punt.”

“The Patriots face losing teams the next three weeks before a Week 9 game at Baltimore and the league may not find out how good the Patriots actually are until late in the season when they draw Philadelphia, Dallas, Houston, and Kansas City in succession,” Nelson notes.

The Giants could make history from a ‘dog standpoint in primetime according to Nelson, “This week’s game could feature the largest underdog spread in Thursday NFL history with +16 for the Rams at Seattle in 2016 the highest instance in our data. Since 1985, seven Thursday NFL teams have been dogged by 14 or more points and they have gone 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.”

New England owns great marks on Thursday and as a two-touchdown favorite or more under Bill Belichick, “Since taking over the Patriots in 2000, Belichick is 12-3 SU and 8-5-2 ATS on Thursdays including winning 38-24 at -10 hosting the Colts last season. New England is just 4-4-2 ATS at home on Thursdays in that span, however. The Patriots are 28-0 SU and 17-11 ATS as a favorite of 14 or more points under Belichick, including going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 instances,” Nelson says.

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Daniel Jones (NYG)
Over 20 ½ (-110)
Under 20 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Daniel Jones (NYG)
Over 1 ½ (+190)
Under 1 ½ (-240)

Will the Giants have a rushing touchdown?
Yes +180
No -220

Will the Giants ever have the lead?
Yes +220
No -270

Total Gross Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 265 ½ (-110)
Under 265 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 2 (-110)
Under 2 (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – Sony Michel (NE)
Over 74 ½ (-110)
Under 74 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Josh Gordon (NE)
Over 59 ½ (-110)
Under 59 ½ (-110)

Will Julian Edelman (NE) score a touchdown?
Yes +120
No -140

LINE MOVEMENT/WEATHER

The weather will not be pretty on Thursday night with rain in the forecast all day and night. Temperatures are in the low 50’s and there will be a steady wind at 18 miles per hour at kickoff.

When CG Technologies released their weekly odds in June for every game in the NFL season (for the exception of Week 17), the Patriots were listed as an 11-point favorite against the Giants. Fast-forward to now and New England is listed as a 17-point favorite at CG Technologies. The total has dipped to 41 ½, from 44 ½ due to impending rain hitting the area.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Ravens 4-1 O/U
2. Lions 3-1 O/U
t3. Cardinals, Panthers, Cowboys, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Raiders, Eagles, Seahawks, Buccaneers, & Redskins 3-2 O/U



NFL's Top Under Teams:

1. Bills 5-0 O/U
t2. Chargers, Vikings, Patriots, Titans, Dolphins, Jets & Niners 4-1 O/U

[StarDust Bum]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 6 odds: Cowboys could get caught looking past Jets
Jason Logan

America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles.

If you’re not using situational handicapping to help unearth NFL betting value each Sunday, you’re missing out on one of the better weapons we can use against the big bad bookies.

Situational capping is pretty simple, if you know what to look for: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays – or spot bets – are “letdowns”, “lookaheads”, and “schedule” spots

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 6 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: ATLANTA FALCONS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5, 51.5)

The Arizona Cardinals cracked the win column thanks to a nail-biting road victory at Cincinnati last Sunday, giving new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray their first taste of sweet, sweet NFL victory as well as picking up an emotional win for the franchise following the death of team owner Bill Bidwell.

The Cardinals come back to the desert for a possible letdown spot against a desperate Falcons teams and a head coach whose office chair looks like a Hollywood stunt man in a disaster movie (it’s on fire). Atlanta is 1-4 SU and finished on the wrong end of a 53-32 shootout at Houston in Week 5. A loss to Arizona wouldn’t help Dan Quinn’s cause and after the Redskins canned Jay Gruden, it’s open season on struggling head coaches.

The Cardinals are winless at home, with an average margin of almost minus-12 points per game as hosts, and haven’t been great off a win, going 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a victory. Adding to that lurking letdown spot is a back injury to do-it-all RB David Johnson, who had a monster game versus the Bengals but couldn’t sit down following the win due to pain.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK JETS (+7, 42.5)

The Cowboys' bandwagon has hit some rough highway in recent weeks, losing to the Saints and Packers after a 3-0 start. Dallas has a good shot of snapping that skid in East Rutherford Sunday, taking on the winless Jets.

However, America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles, who flipped their fortunes after a slow start and now sit tied with Dallas atop the NFC East.

The Jets were as big as +8.5 before starting QB Sam Darnold was cleared to play following a bout with mono. That slimmed the spread to a touchdown Tuesday afternoon. New York has been running third-stringer Luke Falk under center since backup Trevor Siemian was injured midway through Week 2’s loss to Cleveland, and has sputtered on offense ever since.

Defensively, however, New York has been competitive. Gregg Williams makes opponents pay in blood for every yard and this team has eight takeaways already on the season. The Cowboys offense has looked lost the past two outings - with fumbles and interceptions killing drives - and their focus could be on Philly in Week 7, opening up a window for fans of the lookahead spot.

SCHEDULE SPOT: CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+2, 47)

The Buccaneers are technically the home team for the next installment of the NFL’s venture across the pond, getting two points in their matchup with the Panthers in London, England. But on paper, this is Tampa Bay’s third game away from home in a row, and part of a grueling stretch that keeps the Bucs out of Raymond James Stadium for 49 days (with a Week 7 bye in between).

Oakland found itself in this exact same spot (and spot bet) last week and prevailed against the Bears at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as an underdog. The Raiders traveled to England that Monday following Week 4 and spent all week acclimating to the major time difference. The trip isn’t as brutal for the East Coast Bucs, who leave Thursday, will sleep on the plane, and practice Friday. Carolina is planning to arrive a day earlier, with departure on Wednesday.

Tampa Bay has two impressive road wins already this season, at Carolina and at Los Angeles, but looked bad in a loss at New Orleans last weekend. This is also a 9:30 a.m. ET start time – unlike Week 5’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff in London – so perhaps the Panthers have the edge in time zone acclimation by arriving a day earlier.

[StarDust Bum]

Rain in the forecast for Giants vs Pats from Foxborough.

52* with 16-18 mph winds blowing from corner to corner


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by: Josh Inglis


WHAT’S WORSE THAN A TOILET BOWL?

As Jason Logan says, the matchup between the winless Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins isn’t so much a Toilet Bowl as an “ill-timed poop in the woods.” You may have to explain to your significant other why you are watching such poorly played NFL football on Sunday. Your answer to that should be: for the value! We have a play for you on this Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend treat.

Dolphins quarterback Josh Rosen put together two non-disastrous starts before his Week 5 bye. The Team only put up 16 points but did manage to score their first offensive touchdown this year. Getting most of Rosen’s attention is receiver Preston Williams who has 19 targets for eight grabs and 114 yards in his last two games. Look for Preston to go Over his receiving total of 54.5 yards as Washington is allowing 78 yards a game to team’s No.2 WR.


HOOPER TROOPERS

Falcons’ No. 1 receiver Julio Jones did not practice yesterday and is coming off back-to-back scoreless weeks where the All-Pro didn’t top 55 yards in either of those games. Picking up the slack is Austin Hooper who is fantasy’s No. 1 tight end and averaging 7.5 grabs for 93 yards over that same two-game stretch.

It just so happens that the league’s hottest TE is running up against the league’s worst defensive team to TEs as the Falcons play the Cardinals. Hooper’s totals will be very sharp as many prop bettors, ourselves included, have been religiously fading Arizona to TEs, but this is a matchup Hooper can win, especially if Jones’ injury slows him down.

Take Hooper’s reception total of 4.5 and hit the Over as the ATL TE has cleared that mark four times this year and the Cards have also the Over four times.


RUSSELL FLEXIN’

Russell Wilson has the second-lowest odds to win the MVP behind only Patrick Mahomes. Wilson has thrown the ball over 29 times just twice this year but has still tossed 12 TDs, zero INTs and is completing 73 percent of his passes.

With the Browns showing the world how well they can stop the run, look for the Seattle Seahawks to lean on the ground game versus the Browns who are surrendering 6.5 yards per carry over their last three games.

Take Wilson’s Under 30.5 pass attempts and if you are looking for another play, jump on the Over 1.5 passing TDs.


HOUSE OF CARDS

Since 2017, the Atlanta Falcons are 5-16-1 ATS on the road but you can argue that there are a lot of factors in this trend that aren’t specific to the same Falcons team that is heading to Arizona to face the Cardinals in Week 6. What we do know about this current team is that they are allowing a disproportionate 141.1 QB rating to opposing signal-callers over their last three weeks.

Sure, Deshaun Watson’s 426 yards and perfect QB rating skew that number, but the dirty birds still allowed Marcus Mariota and Jacoby Brissett to complete 72 percent of their passes for five TDs and zero interceptions in Weeks 3 and 4. Also not helping the Falcons’ cause is that they are pacing the league in points allowed on the road at 36.

After putting up 26 points versus the Cincinnati Bengals’ 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense, Kyler Murray and the Cards will get to tee off on the Falcons’ equally terrible 29th-ranked DVOA passing defense. Arizona gained a season-high 514 yards of offense last week in their first win as Murray has really figured out his rushing game lately rushing for 189 yards and two scores over his last three. Kliff Kingsbury is finding this offense’s identity which will help in exposing Atlanta’s defensive road struggles on Sunday, even if David Johnson sits.

Wait to take the Over on Arizona’s team total closer to kickoff. The total may drop from 24.5 if David Johnson doesn’t suit up and won’t likely increase if he is active.