Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Payrolls for the 10 playoff teams in baseball:

New York $203,897,446
Washington $197,203,691
LA Dodgers $196,279,677
St Louis $162,620,267
Houston $158,053,000
Milwaukee $122,530,400
Minnesota $119,651,933
Atlanta $115,247,089
A’s $92,178,833
Tampa Bay $60,084,133

Quote of the Day
“You know how I feel about Thursday night games – I feel like they are the dumbest thing ever.”
Todd Gurley

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Jets’ QB Sam Darnold play his college football?

Monday’s quiz
Clint Hurdle managed the Colorado Rockies in their one World Series appearance.

Sunday’s quiz
Dan Marino threw 72 TD passes against the Jets, the most career TD passes by any QB against any one team.

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Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) Three years ago, the Cubs won the World Series for the first time in 108 years; Sunday, they fired manager Joe Maddon, who led them to that title.

When he was in Boston, Cubs GM Theo Epstein fired manager Terry Francona after the 2011 season; Francona won two World Series in eight years with the Red Sox, Boston’s first World Series titles in 86 years.

Not a lot of loyalty in either case there.

Maddon is 65 years old and made $6M this year; his successor will be younger and a lot cheaper.

12) The analytics crowd in baseball doesn’t value the field manager as much as they should; teams live/travel together for 7+ months. Having the right manager makes all the difference.

If you read this site, you know I love numbers, but those guys aren’t playing fantasy baseball, managers have to deal with fragile egos and huge egos and convince guys to accept what is best for the team- they have to have real life people skills. You think major league players like to be platooned constantly?

My point is this; maybe it isn’t Joe Maddon’s fault the Cubs faded down the stretch; maybe the roster Theo Epstein gave him just wasn’t good enough.

11) Angels fired manager Brad Ausmus after only one season, a year where one of their starting pitchers was found dead in his hotel room on a road trip; not exactly an ideal scenario.

Popular wisdom is that the Angels will go after former Angel coach Maddon to be their next manager.

10) Pirates fired manager Clint Hurdle, who was 735-720 in nine years managing the Pirates, with three playoff appearances. From 2013-15, Pirates were 280-206, and made the playoffs all three years. He also led the Rockies to a World Series; pretty strong resume.

9) Cleveland Indians won 93 games this year, the most by any non-playoff team since 2000, when the Mets went 94-68 but missed the playoffs by a game.

8) Pete Alonso hit 53 homers for the Mets this year; 31 of them came with the bases empty.

7) Friday night against the Dodgers, San Francisco became the first team since the 1950 Cardinals to score 2 or less runs in a game, while stranding 17+ runners on base.

6) Monthly sports betting handle:
May: Nevada $317.3M, New Jersey $318.9M
June: Nevada $322.5M, New Jersey $317.3M
July: Nevada $235M, New Jersey $251M
August: Nevada $287.7M, New Jersey $293.5M (Pennsylvania $109M)

5) Early in his career, Dodger SS Corey Seager irritated LA officials with the number of swings he took before, during and after games; they thought he overdid it. Seager was obsessed with perfecting his swing; when he had to miss 2018 with elbow/hip injuries, he became more coachable this year and had a solid 2019, hitting .272 with 84 RBI.

4) 10 years ago, the under-18 U.S. national baseball team had Tony Wolters, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado on it, as well as pitchers Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray and Jameson Taillon. Pretty good team; half of the 20 players made the major leagues.

3) Rutgers fired football coach Chris Ash before baseball season ended, which is unusual. Not a lot of college football coaches get the boot before Columbus Day.

2) Steelers 27, Bengals 3:
— This was a bad football game; the Bengals’ offensive line was terrible.
— Andy Dalton was sacked eight times; he averaged 2.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Two of Pittsburgh’s three TD’s were on drives of less than 50 yards.

1) I know he is just an actor and he isn’t the characters he portrays, but I would still be queasy if Robert DeNiro was mad at me.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not Report - Week 5
September 30, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Week of September 30th

There were some interesting results from the two games covered in last week's piece, as the Chiefs/Lions game was the first to buck that 'under' trend of 2019 with a non-conference home underdog. Even still, that game needed a TD late in the contest by Detroit to sail 'over' the number (before KC scored again).

But it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55-40 wild win out at the Los Angeles Rams that was one that shocked many, but not if you caught the “Who's Not” part last week.

That topic touched on just how bad home favorites have been early in the year prior to a road game on TNF, and the Rams SU and ATS loss pushed home favorites in that pre-TNF road role to 2-10 ATS and 2-10 SU during the first five weeks of the year over the past three seasons. I discussed how there had been some big upset winners in there before, and as a 9-10 point underdog on Sunday, Tampa Bay added themselves to that list of big paydays for those that were ballsy enough to ride that trend.

No rest for the wicked though, as it's on to Week 5's potential spots. And while I did mention that I wasn't intentionally picking on L.A. Rams fans, just that their team kept finding themselves in these situational angles, Rams fans will find their team involved in this week's piece as well.

Staying away from Rams angles is going to have to wait at least another week!

Who's Hot

Playing on 'Unders' after a team scores 40 or more points
1-8 Over/Under since Week 15 of 2018
5-12 O/U since start of 2018 season when it's divisional rivals squaring off
In 2019 alone, this trend is 1-4 O/U overall, as we actually had nobody live in it this past Sunday. Interestingly enough too, is the lone 'over' (New England/New York Jets in Week 3) came after a team (New England) put up their 40+ points and didn't cash an 'over' ticket in the process. That came in their 43-0 win over Miami in Week 2, as that's a rare scenario in of itself.

But generally speaking, getting one side to put up 40 points typically cashes an 'over' ticket along with it, and we've got three different teams fitting this role for Week 5.

I'll begin with the Rams and Buccaneers, who each put up 40 or more points in that wild Sunday afternoon game yesterday. They are somewhat grouped together this week as well, as they are both out on the road, and both squaring off against division foes. Remember, since the start of last year, divisional games that fit this 40+ scenario have hit the 'under' at a 70% clip.

The Rams have that short week ahead of them as we already know, travelling north to Seattle for a big game with the Seahawks. A total of 49 is no slouch of a number for guys on a short week, and considering how many yards quarterback Jared Goff threw for on Sunday (517), and how many points the Rams scored (40) and allowed (55), it's easy to assume there will be plenty of love for the high side of this total as Thursday draws near.

Chances are we could see this number even climb a bit, but it won't be because of support from me if that's the case.

Goff's big day statistically was great, but first and foremost, LA's defense has to tighten things up to avoid putting Goff and the offense in that spot needing so many points. Granted, the three interceptions that Goff threw didn't help things, but getting the defense to turn around things on a short week isn't unfeasible. Can't imagine they took Tampa Bay too seriously given how that game played out, and that just won't be the case with a road divisional game against Seattle this week.

NFL prime time games have still been 'under' machines in 2019 despite a 2-1 O/U record the last three, and with how sloppy these short-week, TNF games can be, I do think going low on this total makes a lot of sense in general. Add in this great 'under' role, and I hope this number climbs.

Tampa Bay's the other team visiting a divisional rival in Week 5, as they take a trip to the Big Easy to face a New Orleans team off a big SNF win. The Saints defense completely wrapped up the Cowboys in that one, and there shouldn't be any worry about them taking Tampa lightly as a divisional foe, and after the offensive performance they put up in LA.

The Bucs total is a little lower at 47.5, and with the way the Saints are trying to win games now with Teddy Bridgewater as a “game manager” QB and the defense doing plenty of the heavy lifting, the 'under' generally makes sense here as well. There is more time to dig into a game like this to either confirm or pass on the low side of this total, but given the history of these 40+ point teams the following week, it's hard not to like going low.

The final team that fits this role in Week 5 of coming off a game where they scored 40+ are the Cleveland Browns. The Browns get the national spotlight treatment once again as they head to San Francisco for MNF, with the 49ers coming off a bye.

The bye week for the 49ers makes things a bit more tricky here as they've had two full weeks to prepare to attack this Browns defense, although the last three times it's been AFC vs NFC in this situational angle with one side coming off a 40+ effort, the 'under' is a perfect 3-0. That includes an 0-2 O/U record this year, with one of those games including the 49ers themselves in their 24-20 win over Pittsburgh last time out.

Who's Not

Backing teams ATS after scoring 40 or more points in their last outing
4-8 ATS (33%) since Week 14 of 2018 and 1-4 ATS (20%) in 2019
Sorry Rams fans, I know the first half of this piece could be taken as positive in terms of your defense turning things around in a few days, and they probably will. But recent history suggests that it probably doesn't turn out to be a SU victory for your team given what the point spread is (+1) and the ATS history the following week for these 40+ point scoring teams.

That being said, the ATS record might be 1-4 ATS this season the following week for these squads, but the SU record is 4-1 SU. All four of those outright winners off a 40+-point day were laying at least -6 in all of those wins though, and only the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 2 win over Oakland was able to bring home the ATS cash. The virtual pick'em point spread here for the Rams/Seahawks game on TNF is a different situation in that regard, so we will just have to see how it plays out.

We already know that Tampa and Cleveland are the other two teams in this spot for Week 5, as both teams are catching a little more than a FG (Tampa +4.5, Cleveland +3.5) for their respective games. Given that the situation does look tougher for Cleveland on paper as it is – an undefeated opponent coming off a bye week and not playing a backup QB – this history does the Browns no favors as well, so we might see another prime time stinker from Cleveland this time next week.

The last five times this scenario has applied to a non-conference game, the team coming into that contest off a 40-point effort is just 1-4 ATS, a run that includes a 0-2 ATS record this season. The 49ers themselves couldn't get it done when they hosted Pittsburgh last time out, and neither could the Ravens in Week 2 when they hosted Arizona.

So Cleveland fans, don't get too over-hyped this week after a great win in Baltimore over the weekend, because we saw the impact a completely full bandwagon for your team can do in their Week 1 blowout loss.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 3-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-11
Against the Spread 5-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-24-1
Against the Spread 24-37-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 26-35-1
Against the Spread 20-41-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-34

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9.5, ML +375) at Rams, 55-40
Browns (+7, ML +280) at Ravens, 40-25
Panthers (+5.5, ML +210) at Texans, 16-10
Raiders (+5.5, ML +210) at Colts, 31-24
Eagles (+3.5, ML +170) at Packers, 34-27
Titans (+3.5, ML +160) at Falcons, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-14.5) at Dolphins, 30-10
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals, 27-10
Giants (-3) vs. Redskins, 24-3

Living Up To The Hype

-- The Cleveland Browns (+7, ML +280) hit the road for a key AFC North battle against the Baltimore Ravens, and their struggling offense finally hit its stride. The Browns entered the day with 49 points scored through three games, or 16.3 PPG, but they erupted for 40 in this one to help the books immensely. The Browns are now 0-2 SU/ATS in two games at home and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road.

Cleveland posted 193 rushing yards, 337 passing yards and 22 first downs with no fumbles lost and just one interception. The lack of turnovers was key in their road win, and they at least cut their penalties down to a manageable six for 41 yards. Cleveland's red-zone efficiency was a solid 4-for-5, something they could have used more help with against the Rams last Sunday night.

Ram It

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled up a franchise-record 55 points in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs (ML +375). The Bucs offense has improved every week, scoring 17 points in Week 1, 20 points in Week 2, 31 points in Week 3 and 55 points in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they'll need to figure out their defensive problems if they wish to continue winning. They're allowing 29.3 PPG through four outings, including at least 31 points in three of the four contests.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' will outperform the 'over' in Week 4, regardless of what happens in the Monday Night Football contest.

The highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Detroit Lions (54.5) lived up to the hype, as the Chiefs outlasted the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field, as the Chiefs dealt the Lions their first straight-up loss of the season. It was amazing that the 'over' connected considering that QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw or run for a touchdown in the game. The second-highest total on the board, the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (49) saw a scoreless third quarter keep the lid on the scoring, ending up going under by 12 points. The two games at 48 or 48.5, the Bucs-Rams (48.5) and Washington Redskins-New York Giants (48) were completely different results. The 'Skins mustered just three points in a 24-3 loss, while the Bucs-Rams saw 95 total points, easily the highest scoring game of the 2019 season. It was the highest-scoring game in the NFL since 105 points were put up in the Chiefs-Rams game on Nov. 19, 2018.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Denver Broncos (37) game, which was a very entertaining affair. QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 26-24 comeback win, including 20 points in the second half. The other game with a total in the 30's, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (38) game, ended up with a just 22 points, and the Bears nearly pitched the shutout until the Vikings scored in the final few minutes to make it 16-6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 4, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5) still pending. The 'over' is 3-9 (25.0%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 for Sunday Night Football this season.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) suffered a left shoulder injury early in the game vs. the Vikings, so it was the QB Chase Daniel show to close out the win.

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots, and the Bills suffered their first setback of the season as a result.

-- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (head) attempted to hurdle a defender, had his legs taken out, and he banged his head on the turf. Perhaps that will be the end of that move. Maybe not.

Looking Ahead

-- The Rams and Seahawks will square off on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. The Rams have posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four road outings, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. However, they're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on TNF. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have posted an impressive 7-0-2 ATS mark in their past nine showings on Thursday, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Seattle looks even more impressive when you consider they're 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles in the Pacific Northwest.

-- The Buccaneers and Saints will lock horns in the Big Easy on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Bucs won outright and covered in their first road game Sunday in L.A., and they're now 4-0-1 ATS in the past five on the road. The Saints edged the Cowboys 12-10 on Sunday night in a low-scoring affair, but they still got it done and are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games since QB Drew Brees (thumb) went down. QB Teddy Bridgewater is doing enough to get it done. The 'under' has hit in 15 of the past 21 meetings in this series, so perhaps the Saints D, which cooled off the Cowboys, can hold down the Bucs.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will tangle in the Steel City. After Baltimore's straight-up loss at home to the Browns, they're now 0-5 ATS in the past five inside the division. They look to snap that in Pittsburgh, as they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series. The 'over' is 13-6-2 ATS in the past 21 meetings in Pittsburgh, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers will square off in L.A., as Denver finally looks to get it right. They're 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, including a pair of narrow losses at home on last-second field goals. The Broncos vaunted D hasn't shown up, allowing 23.4 PPG through four outings so far. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their past three outings, too. The under is also 6-0 in the past six battles in Southern California in this series, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall.

-- The Browns won their first appearance on Monday night against the Jets back in Week 2, now they get another shot under the lights in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye, so they'll be fairly healthy and well-rested, and they get an extra day with the MNF game. That's the first-place 49ers against the first-place Browns. Is this an alternate universe? The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road, while the 49ers are 26-7 ATS in the past 33 on MNF. Something's gotta give. Well, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a bye.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 3

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LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SEATTLE (3 - 1) - 10/3/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 196-241 ATS (-69.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 196-241 ATS (-69.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 90-122 ATS (-44.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-190 ATS (-68.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 150-191 ATS (-60.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-103 ATS (-43.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 6

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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (+24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 1) vs. OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 147-184 ATS (-55.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (0 - 3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 3) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 4) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-202 ATS (+41.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-202 ATS (+41.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 195-148 ATS (+32.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 104-72 ATS (+24.8 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (0 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 118-155 ATS (-52.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (0 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) - 10/6/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 7

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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 0) - 10/7/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 3

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 13 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Seattle's last 18 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Seattle is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Rams is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Rams's last 18 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Seattle
LA Rams is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle


Sunday, October 6

Houston Texans
Houston is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
New Orleans is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New Orleans's last 21 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Jacksonville is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Carolina

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Giants is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Giants's last 22 games at home
NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home
Pittsburgh is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
New England Patriots
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Chicago is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 13 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
LA Chargers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 13 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 13 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games at home
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games when playing Green Bay
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Green Bay's last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Green Bay's last 21 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Green Bay is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 16 games at home
Kansas City is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City


Monday, October 7

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 5 odds: Book braces for public to come back strong on Chiefs at home vs Colts
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes guided Kansas City to a last-minute TD and win at Detroit on Sunday. The Chiefs, now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, opened as 9.5-point home favorites for their Week 5 tilt against the Colts.

Week 5 of the NFL season has some intriguing matchups that are already seeing some line movement. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Kansas City is among just three remaining unbeaten teams, though just barely after Week 4. The Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) overcame an early 10-0 deficit at Detroit, then got a last-minute touchdown to win a shootout 34-30 as 7.5-point favorites Sunday.

Indianapolis looked surprisingly good the first three weeks of the season, following the stunning retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck. But in Week 4, the Colts (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) trailed Oakland 14-0 early and never got closer than a touchdown in a 31-24 home loss as 5.5-point faves.

This matchup is in prime time Sunday night, and The SuperBook is bracing for public play on K.C.

“Kansas City was lucky to escape on the road in Detroit,” Murray said. “The Chiefs come home to face a Colts team off a very bad performance of their own in a home loss to the Raiders. Every parlay and teaser will close with K.C. next Sunday night.”

The Chiefs ticked up to -10 in the hour after this line went up, then shortly thereafter went back to -9.5.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Green Bay was in a good spot to remain unbeaten in Week 4, playing at home in the Thursday nighter. But in a back-and-forth battle, the Packers (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t outlast Philadelphia, losing 34-27 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Dallas was also in prime time and aiming to remain perfect in Week 4, playing under the Sunday night spotlight at New Orleans. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t find points, though, losing a defensive slog 12-10 laying 2.5 points.

“This game is off the board as the Cowboys play the Saints,” Murray said early Sunday evening, noting that prior to the Cowboys-Saints kickoff, The SuperBook posted Dallas -4.5 against Green Bay. “Both teams were probably a little overvalued off their 3-0 starts. We will learn a lot about the Packers in this game.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

Baltimore could have gained an early foothold on the AFC North, going off as 7.5-point home chalk against Cleveland on Sunday. However, the Ravens (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) gave up 30 second-half points in a 40-25 setback.

Pittsburgh lost QB Ben Roethlisberger to an elbow injury in Week 2 and is still seeking its first victory of the season. The Steelers (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) still have Week 4 work to do, as they host Cincinnati on Monday night. In Week 3 behind backup Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh nearly pulled a road upset of San Francisco, falling 24-20 as 6-point pups.

“If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on ‘Monday Night Football,’ the line will go up and the public will come in very hard on the Ravens here,” Murray said. “Either way, we will need the ‘dog pretty big.”

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (PK)

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles fell from the unbeaten ranks in stunning fashion, giving up a 50-plus burger as nearly double-digit Week 4 chalk. The Rams (3-1 SU and ATS) trailed Tampa Bay 21-0 midway through the second quarter, rallied within 45-40 midway through the fourth, but ultimately lost 55-40 giving 9 points at home.

Meanwhile, Seattle bounced back from a Week 3 upset home loss to a New Orleans team minus Drew Brees. The Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to Arizona as 5.5-point favorites Sunday and exited with an easy 27-10 victory.

Both teams operate on a short week for this Thursday night NFC West clash.

“A nightmare game for the Rams’ defense against Tampa,” Murray said. “The public will likely look to back the Rams anyway. Our look-ahead number closed Rams -2.5.”

The game then reopened Sunday afternoon as a pick ‘em and moved to Rams -1 an hour later. Shortly thereafter, the line went back to pick.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5


Rams (3-1) @ Seattle (3-1)— Rams turned ball over seven times (-5) in their last two games; they got shredded for 55 points in home loss to Bucs LW- Tampa Bay converted 8-13 3rd down plays. Under McVay, LA is 4-3 ATS coming off a loss, 3-1 as road underdogs, 4-2 in NFC West road games. Seahawks are off to 3-1 start, despite trailing three of the four games at halftime; their foes converted only 9 of last 31 third down plays. Seattle is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite; their last three games were all against rookie or backup QB’s. Rams won last three series games, scoring 42-33-36 points; they won three of last four visits to Seattle.

Ravens (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)— Baltimore allowed 1,033 yards, 73 points in losing its last two games; in their last three games, Ravens allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt- they’re 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog. Baltimore has run ball for 205.8 ypg; three of their four games went over. Pittsburgh had little resistance in its win Monday night; Steelers are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite. Pitt still hasn’t run the ball for more than 81 yards in a game this year; they’ve converted only 12-44 third down plays, but haven’t allowed a first half TD in their last two games. Steelers won four of last five series games, but Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits to Steel City.

Bears (3-1) vs Raiders (2-2) (@ London)— Oakland traded LB Kahlil Mack to the Bears last summer; this is their first meeting since. Bears’ backup QB Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, but this will be only his 5th NFL start (2-2)- he started two games LY. Chicago won its last three games, outscoring foes 44-6 in first half; they’re +7 in turnovers in those games. Under is 3-1 in Chicago games. Oakland split its first four games, scoring 10-14 in losses, 24-31 in wins- Raiders allowed 28-34-24 points in last three games. This is Oakland’s third straight road game, albeit a neutral site; Raiders are 9-17-2 ATS in last 28 games as a dog. Teams split 14 meetings overall.

Cardinals (0-3-1) @ Bengals (0-4)— How are the Bengals favored over anyone located south of Saskatchewan? Cincy is 0-4, scoring six TD’s on 45 drives, with 16 sacks allowed, 19 3/outs, and a -5 turnover ratio- they were outscored 48-13 in first half of their last three games. Brngals are 4-8 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Cardinals lost their last three games, and were down 24-6 in the game they tied; Redbirds are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog. Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four games. Arizona won three of last four series games, but lost six of seven visits here, wth last one in ’11- their last win in Cincy was in ‘07.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)— Battle of backup QB’s here. Jaguars split their two road games, which were decided by total of 3 points- they’re 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Jax ran ball for 269 yards in Denver LW; they’ve converted only 9 of last 38 third down plays, but are 3-0 ATS in Minshew’s starts. Carolina is 2-0 SU with Allen at QB; they’re 8-11 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite. Road team won all four Carolina games; they’ve turned ball over eight times in four games (-1). Teams split six meetings, with home side 4-2 in those games; Jaguars lost two of three visits here, with all three games decided by six or fewer points.

Vikings (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)— Vikings are 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points, turning ball over six times (-4); they ran ball for 193.7 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, but were held to 40 YR in Chicago LW. Minnesota is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite. Giants are 2-0 with rookie QB Jones starting, scoring 32-24 points; they covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Big Blue was 5-23 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2; they’re 14-26 in Jones’ two starts. Minnesota won six of last eight series games, last five of which were decided by 16+ points. Vikings won four of last six visits here; last one was in 2013.

Patriots (4-0) @ Redskins (0-4)— Over last 20 years. favorites are 5-2 ATS in Week 5 games if an unbeaten team plays a winless team. Patriots won last three series games by 45-7-17 points; they won 34-27 in last visit here, back in 2011. New England has been awesome so far, allowing one TD on 48 drives; three of their four wins are by 16+ points. NE has eight takeaways in two road wins (+6); they’re 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Redskins are overmatched here; their QB’s are awful- Skins scored 3 points LW vs a Giant defense that allowed 31.3 ppg in Weeks 1-3. Washington was outscored 45-6 in first half of its last two games.

Jets (0-3) @ Eagles (2-2)— Darnold (mono) is a ??? here; his conditioning can’t be good. Jets lost eight of last ten post-bye games (3-7 ATS); they started three different QB’s in their losses this year- Falk likely gets his 2nd NFL start here. Jets are 7-12-2 ATS in last 21 games as a road dog, 1-0 this year. Eagles split their first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Three of their four games went over the total. Eagles have converted 32-57 third down plays this year. Philly won last 10 series games by average score of 27-17; Jets lost last five trips here, with last one in 2011.

Buccaneers (2-2) @ Saints (3-1)— Tampa Bay had 28 points at halftime in each of its last two games; they gained 499-464 TY the last two weeks, averaging 8.7 yards/pass attempt in both games, but Bucs have also allowed 31+ points in three games this year. TB was outscored 75-50 in 2nd half of games so far, but Arians is helping Winston thrive at QB. Saints are 2-0 in Bridgewater’s starts, they held Dallas to 45 YR LW after Cowboys had run for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3. Since 2014, NO is 12-21-1 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last eight series games, splitting last four games in each stadium.

Falcons (1-3) @ Texans (2-2)— Atlanta lost its first two road tilts by 16-3 points; they’re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents. Falcons are averaging only 70.3 rushing yards/game; they were outscored 44-10 in first half of last two games. Houston split its first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; road team covered all four of their games- they scored only two TD’s on 20 drives in their home games. Texans are 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as home favorites. Home side won last four Falcon-Texan games, with Atlanta losing 17-13/17-10 in last two visits here.

Bills (3-1) @ Titans (2-2)— Tennessee gets star LT Lewan back from suspension here, which is a big help for their OL; Titans converted 14-30 3rd down plays in last two games, after being 3-20 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2. Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 1-3 as a home favorite. Buffalo lost tough 16-10 home game to New England LW; QB Allen is banged up, Barkley (2-5 as NFL starter) gets nod if Allen can’t go. Under McDermott, Buffalo is 8-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, 6-4-1 in games wth spread of 3 or fewer points. Last three series games were decided by one point each, with Buffalo winning last two; Bills lost four of last five visits to Nashville.

Broncos (0-4) @ Chargers (2-2)— Denver lost its first four games, losing road games by 8-11 points; they lost their two home games on last-second FG’s. Broncos blew 17-6 halftime lead LW; they’re 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog. Banged-up Chargers led all four games at halftime; they’re 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year. Bolts are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 AFC West home games. Melvin Gordon figures to get some action at RB for Chargers, after he ended his holdout. Teams split last six series games; Denver scored 13-0-9 points in last three series losses. Teams split last four series games in SD/Carson.

Packers (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)— Green Bay won seven of last eight series games (2-0 in playoff games), winning last three visits here, 37-36/34-31/35-31. Packers split their first four games, winning only road game 10-3 (+3) in Chicago; they’ve scored 65 first half points, only 20 second half points this year. GB is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog, 3-6-1 in last ten games on artificial turf. Cowboys scored 35-31 points in winning their two home games; they ran ball for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, were held to 45 in Superdome LW. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.

Colts (2-2) @ Chiefs (4-0)— Chiefs whacked Colts 31-13 in playoffs LY; Indy’s first TD scored on a blocked punt. KC won last two series games 30-14/31-13 after losing six of the previous seven meetings- Colts won seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Indy split its first four games, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points; under Reich, Indy is 5-2 ATS as a road dog- three of their four games went over. Chiefs scored 15 TD’s on 38 drives in their 4-0 start; in their last two games, only 18 of their 131 plays came on third down. Mahomes has averaged 7.5+ yards/pass attempt in all four games, but he was 0-11 LW on passes that went 30+ yards downfield.

Browns (2-2) @ 49ers (3-0)— Cleveland has had wildly divergent results, splitting its first four games; only one of their four games was decided by less than 15 points. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as a road underdog; they were outscored 48-14 in 2nd half of their two losses. 49ers scored 32 ppg in their 3-0 start; they ran ball for 427 yards in last two games. Under Shanahan, SF is 2-4 ATS when laying points at home. Niners lost last six post-bye games (0-6 ATS), with last four losses by 11+ points. Browns won three of last four games with the 49ers, with average total of 29; teams split pair of meetings here.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5


Thursday, October 3

LA Rams @ Seattle

Game 301-302
October 3, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
132.800
Seattle
131.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 2
49
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+2); Under


Sunday, October 6

Arizona @ Cincinnati

Game 455-456
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
121.000
Cincinnati
122.566
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 4 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+4 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Houston

Game 467-468
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
130.329
Houston
132.480
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+5); Over

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 465-466
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
134.839
New Orleans
135.097
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
Even
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ NY Giants

Game 459-460
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
134.320
NY Giants
127.442
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Carolina

Game 457-458
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.588
Carolina
136.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
41
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

Chicago @ Oakland

Game 453-454
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
134.054
Oakland
131.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+5); Over

New England @ Washington

Game 461-462
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
144.763
Washington
119.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 25 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 15 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-15 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Tennessee

Game 469-470
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.290
Tennessee
136.988
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ Philadelphia

Game 463-464
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
119.201
Philadelphia
136.288
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 17
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 13 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-13 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Game 451-452
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
131.724
Pittsburgh
134.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
43
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+4); Under

Denver @ LA Chargers

Game 471-472
October 6, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
124.822
LA Chargers
133.249
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 6
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-6); Under

Green Bay @ Dallas

Game 473-474
October 6, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
132.199
Dallas
133.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

Game 475-476
October 6, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
132.496
Kansas City
139.635
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 11
57
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+11); Over


Monday, October 7

Cleveland @ San Francisco

Game 477-478
October 7, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
132.716
San Francisco
138.383
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 5 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-3 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 5 odds: Wait to take on total in Bears-Raiders in London
Jason Logan

There’s likely going to be an overreaction to the Bears' QB situation, however, with the way Trubisky was playing (588 total yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 81 QBR) there’s not much separating him from Daniel right now.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

With four weeks of football data under their belts, oddsmakers will begin tightening said belts with their weekly numbers. Value will be harder to sniff out, so timing your wagers to optimize your opinion is even more important.

Let’s punch these Bet Now/Bet Later games into our Covers Live App line move alerts in Week 5:


SPREAD TO BET NOW: L.A. RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2, 49)

Wild line movement has been the name of the game when capping this NFC West war for Thursday night. But, that’s what a 55-40 loss to the Bucs will do to your public appeal. The Rams opened as big as 1.5-point favorites for this primetime game but one-sided money on the Seahawks has flipped this spread over the fence and has Seattle giving two points at home.

If you’re not rattled by the WTF result against Tampa Bay, the time to bet Los Angeles is now. Oddsmakers expect the public to pile on the Rams come Thursday, which means this game could finish up closer to the pick’em come kickoff.

I understand where the early attraction is for Seattle: a primetime home game in the rain (expected) in front of the 12th Man against a QB in Jared Goff who struggles away from home. But, can we trust the Seahawks results through four weeks? They’ve squeaked out a win at home over Cincinnati, barely beat Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, lost to Teddy B and the Saints, and looked better than they were versus Arizona last Sunday. Those are some terrible defenses. But, then again, L.A. just gave up a double nickel to the Buccos.

If you’re riding the Rams, get ‘em while their hot… errr… cold.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5, 41)

In a battle of young backups making a name of themselves, second-year passer Kyle Allen and rookie QB Gardner Minshew headline this Week 5 non-conference clash in Carolina. The Panthers, who are 2-0 SU and ATS since Allen took over for the injured Cam Newton, are giving 3.5 points to the Jags but it looks like this spread could come down later in the week.

Plenty of books are discounting Carolina -3.5 with the juice, trying to attract some money on the home favorite and stay on this half-point hook. Jacksonville is also off back-to-back wins and covers and has cashed in for backers in three straight outings with Minshew making throws. This is, however, the Jaguars' second road game in a row and third in four weeks after a grueling climb up the mountain at Denver in Week 4.

The Panthers offense is simple enough with Allen at the wheel: two scoops of RB Christian McCaffery and if he’s not available to run or catch, look to TE Greg Olsen. That pair has combined for 25 targets on Allen’s 60 total pass attempts in the last two contests. Jacksonville has some tape on Allen after these starts but the status of CB Jalen Ramsey is up in the air, and he was missed dearly in the win at Denver Sunday.

If you like this home side, wait and see if you can get Carolina without that pesky half-point hook.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 48.5 ATLANTA-HOUSTON

At first glance, this game should produce about 1,000 points given all the offensive firepower on the field. But that’s just not the case for these squads this season. The Falcons and Texans are a combined 2-6 Over/Under so far in 2019 and this total, which opened at 49 points, is starting to shrink with money on the Under.

Houston has had trouble putting up big numbers at home this season, totaling only 23 points in its two stands inside NRG Stadium, including a quiet day from Deshaun Watson in Week 4’s loss to Carolina (he can explain the whole thing). The Texans turned to the running game in those matchups, picking up 136 yards on 22 carries last weekend and 126 yards on 30 carries versus Jacksonville in Week 2.

Atlanta has been a bust on offense – no matter the venue – averaging only 17.5 points to start the season. Matt Ryan has thrown six interceptions already (he had just seven total in 2018) and is under duress more than he’d like to be. The Falcons have fallen short of the betting total as visitors plenty of times in the past, going 14-20-2 O/U on the road since 2015 (59% Unders).

This number dipped as low as 48 at some books before action bought back the Over and moved the total to 49. I don’t see it hitting 50, so if you like the Under buy as big as you can now.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 41 CHICAGO VS. OAKLAND

The total for the first London, England game of the 2019 schedule is promising less-than-entertaining football. Oddsmakers have this number at 41 points with the Bears and Raiders doing battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, and it's dropped as low as 40 at some markets.

Chicago will be without starting QB Mitch Trubisky, who left Week 4 with a dislocated shoulder, and forces the Bears to go with No. 2 Chase Daniel. There’s likely going to be an overreaction to this swap from public money, however, with the way Trubisky was playing (588 total yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 81 QBR) there’s not much separating him from Daniel right now.

The Raiders have a new weapon in RB Josh Jacobs, who sparked the Oakland attack in Sunday’s win at Indianapolis. He had 79 yards rushing and another 29 yards on two catches, and that will help keep the Chicago pass rush guessing in London. One other note about this international affair: the game is being played on artificial turf, and not the soft soccer pitches we’ve seen in past UK games. That will help with speed and surface integrity Sunday.

With Trubisky out and people poo-pooing the Silver and Black, wait and see if this total goes sub-40. Then, if you like the Over, “Benny Hill” it to your bookie to bet it.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 3

L.A. RAMS at SEATTLE (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Rams on 5-1 SU and spread run in reg season since late 2018. Russell Wilson 6-0 as home dog since 2012, however. Rams have won SU last three in series but Hawks have covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Seattle on 9-4 “over” reg season run.
Tech Edge: Slight to Seahawks and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


Sunday, Oct. 6

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Road team has covered last five in series, Raves 3-0-1 vs. line last four at Heinz Field. If getting points note Steel has covered last six as dog.
Ravens, based on series trends.

CHICAGO vs. OAKLAND at Tottenham Stadium, London (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 3-13-1 last 16 as dog away from Coliseum. Oakland also “under” 5-2-1 last eight since late 2018. Bears on 10-1 “under” run. Chicago also 5-2 vs. spread last seven away from home.
“Under” and Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.

ARIZONA at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards 6-3-1 last ten as road dog since late 2017 (1-0 TY). Cincy 4-8 last 12 as home chalk. Bengals on 6-1-2 “under” run after Monday.
Cards and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Minshew now 3-0 vs. line as starter for Jags. Panthers 1-4 vs. spread last five at home, no covers last four as chalk. Jags on 6-3 “under” run.
Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 1-5 vs. spread last six on road. Also “under” 16-6-1 last 23 since late 2017. G-Men 1-6 last seven as MetLife dog but those are Eli numbers; NY 2-0 SU and vs. spread with D Jones in lineup.
Slight to Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Belichick on 6-2 spread run since late 2018, also 11-2 “under” last 12 in reg season. Jay Gruden 3-7 vs. line since late 2018, and “over” 3-1 in 2019.
Patriots and "under,", based on team trends.

NY JETS at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds 1-8 vs. spread last nine at Linc. Philly also “over” 6-2 last 8 since late 2018. Jets on 3-9-1 skid vs. line since mid 2018.
Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs on 7-3 “under” run since late 2018. Teams have split last 8 vs. spread. Saints only one cover last six at Superdome.
Slight to “under” and Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.

ATLANTA at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs now on 4-14 reg season spread run on road since 2017. Texans on 9-4-1 spread run reg season since mid 2018 though have failed to cover in first 2 at home this term. Houston also “under” last five at NRG.
Texans and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 4-0-1 vs. spread last five on road. Buff interestingly 5-1 vs. spread last six after facing Pats. Bills also on 6-1 “under” run since late 2018 as well. Titans 4-7 last 11 vs. line since mid 2018, 1-3 last four as home chalk.
Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

DENVER at LA CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Denver on 5-15 spread skid as visitor since late 2016. Broncos also on 11-2 “under” run. Last three “under” in series. Bolts just 2-8 last 10 as Carson chalk since LY.
“Under,” based on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dak has won and covered 4 of last 5 reg season games, 9-2-1 last 12 vs. line in reg season. Pack 10-19-1 as dog since 2013 but Rodgers absent for part of that stretch.
Slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 12-2 vs. spread in first five of games of seasons. Indy 3-1 vs. line TY and 6-2 last 8 reg season. Chiefs on 8-2 “over” run in reg season. Playoff rematch!
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.



Monday, Oct. 7

CLEVELAND at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Brownies 8-3 vs. spread last 11 on road, 10-5 as dog since last season. Niners 1-5 as chalk since LY, 3-6 last 9 at Levi’s.
Tech Edge: Browns, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Interesting college football spreads this weekend:

— Oregon State @ UCLA (-5.5)

— Iowa @ Michigan (-3.5)

— Northwestern @ Nebraska (-3.5)

— Air Force (-3) @ Navy

— TCU @ Iowa State (-3.5)

— Auburn (-3) @ Florida

Quote of the Day
“Falling down is part of life; getting back up is living.”
Anonymous

Wednesday’s quiz
Who won/lost the last time the World Series was a sweep?

Tuesday’s quiz
Sam Darnold played his college football at USC.

Monday’s quiz
Clint Hurdle managed the Colorado Rockies in their one World Series appearance.

****************************

Wednesday’s Den: NFL stats after four weeks……

13) Best red zone offenses:
Seattle 6.25 ppp, Cowboys 6.08, Ravens 6.07

Worst red zone offenses:
Dolphins 2.67, Bengals 3.00, Raiders 3.62

12) Best offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Ravens 3.76 ppp, Chiefs 3.19, Chargers 2.88

Worst offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Jets 0.37, Dolphins 0.52, Bucs 0.88

11) Best red zone defenses:
Patriots 2.50, 49ers 2.88, Steelers 3.57, Chiefs 3.76

Worst red zone defenses:
Browns 6.60, Dolphins 6.16, Colts 5.67, Saints 5.57

10) Best defenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
49ers 0.38, Patriots 0.39, Bills 0.77, Bears 0.84

Worst defenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Dolphins 3.05, Cardinals 3.03, Chiefs 2.67, Falcons 2.56

9) QB’s with most passing yards:
Mahomes KC 1,510, Ryan Atl 1,325, Goff LAR/Rivers LAC 1,254

8) QB’s with most touchdown passes:
10— Brissett-Jackson-Mahomes
9— Prescott-Stafford-Wentz-Winston
8— Ryan-Wilson

7) RB’s with most rushing yards:
McCaffrey 411, Cook 410, Fournette 404, Chubb 398

6) Players with most receiving yards:
KAllen 452, Kupp 388, Godwin 386, Adams 378

6) Teams that scored the most points:
135— Chiefs/Ravens
123— Buccaneers
122— Patriots
117— Rams

5) Offenses with most plays of 20+ yards:
Chiefs 27, Chargers/Ravens 23, Lions 22, Falcons 21

4) Offenses that have gained most yards/game:
Ravens 482.5, Chiefs 474.8, Cowboys 425.2, 49ers 421.0

3) Defenses that allowed fewest yards/game:
Patriots 243.0, Bills 280.8, 49ers 283.3, Panthers 287.5

2) Best net punting average:
Redskins 48.5, Giants 46.8, Cardinals/Saints/Eagles 44.8.

1) Best turnover ratios:
+6— Bears/Patriots
+5— Titans
+4— Packers/Jets/Steelers

Worst turnover ratios:
-7— Dolphins
-5— Falcons/Giants/Broncos/Bengals
-3— Panthers/Rams/Redskins

[StarDust Bum]

Seahawks' Griffin rebounds after slump
October 1, 2019
By The Associated Press

RENTON, Wash. (AP) At the end of his second season, Seattle Seahawks cornerback Shaquill Griffin knew he had to make changes.

He was trying too hard. He weighed too much. He had clearly taken a step back after a promising rookie year.

Along with his brother Shaquem, Griffin significantly altered everything from his diet to his workout regimen during the offseason. He needed to be lighter and quicker if he was to fulfill the promise of being Seattle's next standout cornerback.

So far this season, the work seems to have had the desired effect. Griffin is slimmer. He is faster. And through four games he's playing at a level more in line with what he had expected after his first year.

''He looks really active; he's made consistent plays,'' coach Pete Carroll said. ''You've seen him knock balls down kind of in consistent fashion almost week in and week out. Doing a good job on top, on the deep balls. He's playing great football, I think.''

Griffin and the rest of Seattle's secondary have already faced a couple of difficult tests through four weeks. But Thursday night brings the toughest challenge to date when Los Angeles visits for a big divisional showdown, just days after Rams quarterback Jared Goff tied an NFL record with 45 completions and threw for 517 yards in a loss to Tampa Bay.

With the likes of Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp, there's no doubt Seattle's secondary will be tested.

''We need to be involved in games like this. If you're going to have a good season, you've got to be able to match up and play these kinds of games and do a good job. I'm looking forward to it,'' Carroll said.

Griffin said the biggest and most important change he made during the offseason was dropping nearly 20 pounds. Griffin played last year at around 212 pounds but started this season around 195.

''It's still early, so I'm still doing different things to take care of my body the correct way,'' Griffin said. ''But it feels good to be out there, to move the way I am, and as fast as I'm moving, and be able to keep my endurance up all at the same time. Last year, the weight that I was at, I would get so fatigued so fast and that's the part of my game that I took out.''

Griffin was carrying some mental weight a year ago as well. With the departure of Richard Sherman after his rookie season, Griffin had to step into his mentor's role. He took the same spot on the defense as Sherman and with it came expectations of playing at that level. Instead of thriving, though, Griffin struggled.

He was rated near the bottom among cornerbacks around the league by some analytics. This year has been a bounce back so far.

Griffin has only three passes defensed - the same as Jadeveon Clowney - but opponents haven't thrown his way often. When they have, Griffin has avoided getting beat in the ways he was last year.

He's matured and the Seahawks are benefiting.

''Definitely a little difference from the first couple of years,'' Griffin said. ''I feel like I'm going in the right direction, keeping my mind in the right direction; and what I need to do and what I need to focus on. Being that team player, all of my thoughts are about the team. What can I do for the team? I don't have any thoughts that are speaking on myself, and that's the type of player I need to be.''

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Rams at Seahawks
October 2, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Rams (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) were handed their first loss of the season in a surprising home setback to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay dropped 55 points on Los Angeles in a 55-40 stunner at the L.A. Coliseum to win outright as nine-point underdogs. The Rams had allowed 49 points in their first three victories, but fell in a 21-0 second quarter hole and got as close as 45-40 with eight minutes remaining on a Marcus Peters interception return for a touchdown.

Unfortunately, the Rams couldn’t do anymore to pull off the monster rally as the Bucs scored the final 10 points, capped off by former Ram Ndamukong Suh returning a fumble for a score in the last minute of play. Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff threw for 517 yards on 45 completions, but the former top pick was also intercepted three times as the Rams turned the ball over four times. Todd Gurley didn’t receive many carries due to the large early deficit, but the Rams’ running back scored a pair of touchdowns even though he only recorded five rushing attempts.

The Rams dropped only one home game in 2018, but fell to 1-1 at the Coliseum with the loss to the Buccaneers, who just one week earlier squandered an 18-point advantage in a one-point home defeat to the Giants. This marked the 15th time since the start of 2018 that the Rams scored at least 30 points and it is only the second time in this stretch that they lost when reaching that threshold as Los Angeles dropped a 45-35 decision at New Orleans for its first regular season loss in 2018.

The Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) rebounded from a shocking home loss to the Saints back in Week 3 to cruise past the winless Cardinals, 27-10 as 5 ½-point road favorites. Seattle improved to 6-0-1 in its last seven trips to Glendale, as the Seahawks jumped out to a 20-3 halftime lead and never looked back.

Jadeveon Clowney returned a Kyler Murray interception 27 yards for Seattle’s first touchdown, while Russell Wilson hit tight end Will Dissly for the Seahawks’ only offensive score of the first half. Wilson threw for 240 yards and has not thrown an interception yet this season, while running back Chris Carson busted out for a season-high 104 yards.

Seattle owns a 2-0 record away from CenturyLink Field and to show how it impressive this road mark is for Pete Carroll’s team, look back at how they began the previous four seasons on the highway. In 2015, 2017, and 2018, the Seahawks lost each of their first two road contests, while splitting their opening two away affairs in 2016. Seattle didn’t cover its first true road game last season until Week 8 at Detroit, as the Seahawks are a perfect 2-0 ATS away from the Pacific Northwest in 2019.

HOME/AWAY SPLITS

The job the Rams have done away from Los Angeles under head coach Sean McVay in 2+ seasons is nothing short of remarkable. The defending NFC champions have won 16 of 19 road contests, including September victories over Carolina and Cleveland. The Rams have compiled a 3-1 SU/ATS record in the role of a road underdog since 2017, as the lone defeat came at Minnesota as one-point ‘dogs in Week 11 of the 2017 season, 24-7.

Seattle dropped its first September home game since 2009 in the 33-27 defeat to New Orleans back in Week 3, which was also the first loss at CenturyLink Field in the opening month under Carroll. Since 2014, the Seahawks are 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS at home in October, including a 1-5 ATS ledger in the favorite role.
NFC WEST ODDS
In spite of these teams owning 3-1 records, both the Rams and Seahawks sit behind the 3-0 49ers for first place in the NFC West. Los Angeles opened the season at 1/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $50) to claim its third consecutive division title according to the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas.

The Rams have slipped to 11/10 odds to finish in first place, while Seattle has gone from 5/2 odds prior to the season to 12/5 entering Week 5. By the way, San Francisco started the season at 7/1 odds and have improved to 2/1 odds as the Niners host the Browns on Monday night.

SERIES HISTORY

The Rams have won each of the past three meetings with the Seahawks, including the last two at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has actually covered four of the last five meetings since 2016, including in both matchups last season.

The Rams edged the Seahawks, 33-31, which was also a Week 5 affair, but Seattle cashed as 7 ½-point home underdogs. Gurley rushed for three touchdowns, while Wilson completed only 13 passes, but three went for touchdowns. Seattle led, 31-24 in the fourth quarter prior to Gurley’s third touchdown of the game to tie things up, then the Rams went ahead for good on a 39-yard field goal from Cairo Santos.

The second meeting at the Coliseum in Week 10 was another shootout as the Rams held off the Seahawks, 36-31. Seattle grabbed the cover as 10-point underdogs thanks to a late touchdown pass by Wilson with under two minutes remaining in regulation. Wilson threw three touchdown passes again, but Goff was equal to the task by posting 318 passing yards and two touchdowns, while Gurley put up 120 yards and a score. Seattle is looking to beat Los Angeles at home for the first time since 2016.

TOTAL TALK

After watching the ‘under’ easily connect in the first three Thursday Night games of the season, the ‘over’ (46 ½) rebounded in Week 4 as the Eagles and Packers combined for 61 points. Oddsmakers are expecting more points in the Week 5 midweek matchup between these teams and Chris David of VegasInsider.com offers up his thoughts on the total.

He said, “The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight games between these teams and that includes two tickets to the high side last season that had totals close in the fifties. The majority of the damage on the scoreboard during this span has come from the Rams, who have averaged 37 PPG and 425 YPG on offense. Not surprisingly, L.A. has won all three games. Goff has connected on over 70 percent of his passes in two of those victories while Gurley has run for 100-plus yards in two of the games and he’s accounted for seven touchdowns.”

“Even though the Rams posted 40 points and 518 total offensive yards last week in their embarrassing home loss to the Buccaneers, most pundits would tell you that McVay’s offense hasn’t looked sharp through four games. Despite that opinion, L.A. is still ranked sixth in scoring (29.2 PPG) and that unit has traveled well since the young head coach took over,” added David.

Los Angeles led the league in scoring away from home in 2017 with 32.8 PPG and they notched 25.9 PPG on the road in 2018. As visitors this season, they’ve scored 30 and 20 points and this week’s team total on the Rams is right around that average at 24 points.

Both clubs enter this game with identical 2-2 total records through four games. Seattle has been featured in a Thursday Night game each of the last four seasons and the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 while the Rams captured shootout victories in 2018 versus Minnesota (38-31) and in 2017 at San Francisco (41-39) on the short week.

CD connected on his total opinions last week in this segment and he believes we could see more points in this spot, at least from one team.

“A lot of folks are down on the Rams right now and deservingly so after they were embarrassed as heavy home favorites to Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Seattle cashed easily for bettors at Arizona and those memories don’t fade quickly. If you really break it down, L.A. has beaten three teams that might be in the playoffs plus the Bucs could easily be 3-1. Seattle, however, has three wins against teams with one combined victory,” said David.

“Similar to last week, Green Bay’s defense was the toast of the town prior to facing QB Carson Wentz and the Eagles. We saw what happened there and Philadelphia captured the outright win. Sticking with that approach, this will be the toughest test of the season for the Seattle defense. The Rams have notched 21 scores this season, ranked third in the league. Unfortunately, the touchdown-field goal ratio of 12:9 isn’t great. Still, I’m going to buy more sixes instead of threes on Thursday and play the Rams Team Total Over.”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson points out that the strong home-field advantage the Seahawks have owned through the years may not be there anymore, “Seattle hasn’t been nearly as impressive in its 3-1 start as the three wins have come against teams that are a combined 1-10-1 this season. They lost to New Orleans at home with the Saints playing without Drew Brees and the once amazing home-field edge at CenturyLink Field has eroded, failing to cover in both home dates this season while on an 8-10-1 ATS run at home since the start of the 2017 season with seven straight-up home losses. The two home games this season were unusual the results that could have been reversed as Seattle won 21-20 vs. Cincinnati despite being out-gained 429-232, but then lost to the Saints with a 514-265 yardage edge.”

There has been an advantage through the years for the home team in these Thursday matchups, but Nelson notes how it has changed, “Home teams have had a clear edge on Thursdays in recent years warranting this line flipping from the Rams opening as a slight favorite to Seattle currently priced as the slight favorite. Thursday hosts are 36-20 SU and 34-19-3 ATS since the start of the 2016 season, although it is worth noting that three of four road teams have won on Thursday night this season with all four underdogs winning outright.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Jared Goff (LAR)
Over 23 ½ (-110)
Under 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Jared Goff (LAR)
Over 1 ½ (-150)
Under 1 ½ (+130)

Will Todd Gurley (LAR) score a touchdown?
Yes +110
No -130

Total Receiving Yards – Cooper Kupp (LAR)
Over 73 ½ (-110)
Under 73 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Russell Wilson (SEA)
Over 252 ½ (-110)
Under 252 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Russell Wilson (SEA)
Over 1 ½ (-180)
Under 1 ½ (+150)

Total Rushing Yards – Chris Carson (SEA)
Over 69 ½ (-110)
Under 69 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Over 70 ½ (-110)
Under 70 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT
The Rams opened up as 1 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook when lines were released prior to Week 4. However, the Seahawks have moved into the favorite role by laying one point, while the total sits at 49 ½.

[StarDust Bum]

Rams try to rebound in Seattle
October 2, 2019
By The Associated Press

SEATTLE (AP) Whatever the reason the Los Angeles Rams seem to have solved winning in one of the most difficult venues in the NFL.

Each of the past two times the Rams have traveled to the Northwest they've come out of Seattle with a victory. They've won three of their past four trips to face the Seahawks. One of those was the most lopsided loss handed to the Seahawks during Pete Carroll's tenure.

So even though the Rams are coming off a surprising home loss to Tampa Bay last week, they still have that history they'll be bringing with them when they visit Seattle on Thursday night for a key NFC West matchup.

''I think we are all in the same position of, we're just excited about another opportunity," Rams coach Sean McVay said. ''We respect the Seahawks a lot, but I know for me personally, I think a lot of the players would agree, the Thursday week is stressful in terms of the amount of work that is condensed in a short week, but it provides a great chance for us to respond from a disappointing Sunday."

The Seahawks (3-1) know getting back to the top of the NFC West means reversing the trend of the past few years. Los Angeles (3-1) has won six of the past eight overall against Seattle and a win on Thursday would make the Rams the first division opponent to win three straight games in Seattle since the Denver Broncos from 1996-98.

''What happened last year, what happened the previous years before doesn't really matter," Seattle linebacker Bobby Wagner said. ''If you don't bring your game this year, then all of that is erased."

Even though he tied an NFL record with 45 completions and threw for 517 yards last week, there is worry about how Jared Goff has played. He's thrown six interceptions in four games. His passer rating is 82.9. Couple Goff's inconsistency with concerns about Todd Gurley's usage - he had a career-low five carries against the Bucs - and issues on the offensive line and the Rams offense has yet to click.

Meanwhile, Seattle has no worries about its quarterback. Russell Wilson is off to one of the best starts of his career. He's thrown eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He leads the NFC and is second in the league in passer rating. Seattle's offense has sputtered at times but it's not because of Wilson.

''I think I'm playing good. I think there's some more things out there that you can always try and do," Wilson said.

Here's what else to watch for as the Seahawks and Rams meet for the 43rd time overall.

ON THE LINE

The Rams' reconfigured offensive line hasn't been overly impressive after replacing two veteran starters with unheralded second-year pros Brian Allen and Joe Noteboom, but veteran tackles Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein both hurt Los Angeles last week with penalties. The line was a durable strength of McVay's first two offenses, and its sudden shakiness is a clear factor in the Rams' slow offensive start. Look for Jadeveon Clowney, Rasheem Green, Quinton Jefferson and the Seahawks' other pass rushers to test that line.

LEAN ON THE RUN

Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season and two of its best games came against the Rams. Seattle rushed for a season-high 273 yards in the game in Los Angeles. The Seahawks haven't matched their league-best rushing attack from a year ago, but Chris Carson rushed for 104 yards last week and Rashaad Penny should return after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury. Penny had the only 100-yard game of his career last year against the Rams.

TAKE YOUR PICK

Although the Rams gave up 385 yards through the air by Jameis Winston last week, their pass defense has been largely solid with the addition of safety Eric Weddle to three holdovers from the Super Bowl team. Marcus Peters returned the Rams' fourth interception of the season for a late touchdown against Tampa Bay. Los Angeles' defensive backs got no help from a struggling pass rush last week, but Clay Matthews and Dante Fowler hope to increase their quarterback pressure to take the load off Aaron Donald, who has been double-teamed on roughly 85 percent of the opponents' snaps.

COMEBACK COOP

Rams receiver Cooper Kupp leads the NFC with 388 yards receiving as he returns to the state where the Yakima native was born and raised and attended college at Eastern Washington. In the Rams' previous meeting with the Seahawks, Kupp badly injured his knee in the fourth quarter, sidelining him for the rest of the season in Los Angeles' Super Bowl run. He has returned better than ever, with his connection with Goff somehow even stronger.

RING OF HONOR

Seattle will induct former owner Paul Allen into the team's ''Ring of Honor" before kickoff on Thursday. Allen purchased the Seahawks in 1997 and helped keep the team in Seattle after former owner Ken Behring attempted to move them to Southern California. He owned the franchise until his death last year from non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Allen will become the 12th person honored by the team.

''He gave us a chance," Wilson said. ''He gave us an opportunity just to have this amazing facility. To have the great coaches that we have. To have the culture that we have. The opportunities that we have."

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


SACK-O’-LANTERN

Last week we won a little money on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. The "King of Inconsistency" will possibly face off against Matt Barkley and the Buffalo Bills as a 3-point favorite. We aren’t going to put our winnings back on MarMar but will be hoping he and Barkley will be hitting the dirt early and often.

Although Mariota has yet to throw an interception this year, he has been sacked 17 times - fourth-most in the league. With Josh Allen still in concussion protocol, Barkley will have to face a Titans defense that is getting to opposing QBs 3.2 times a game while the Bills are allowing 2.5 sacks a game.

You may have to wait closer to game time to get this prop but when it opens, hit the Over 5.5 sacks (value at O/U 6.5 as well).


CARDIAC RUSSELL

In Week 3, Russel Wilson threw for over 400 yards at home versus the Saints secondary in the pouring rain. On Thursday, he’ll be back at CenturyLink Field facing an L.A. Rams defense that allowed 55 points to Jameis Winston (385 yards and four TDs) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Last year, Wilson tossed three TDs and ran for 92 yards on the road versus the Rams. With L.A. getting embarrassed last week, look for it to be tough sledding for the Seahawks’ running game versus a Rams run defense that still ranks eighth in DVOA.

With the Sean McVay & Co. able to put up points against a middle-of-the-pack Seattle defense, we’re taking the Over on Wilson’s 19.5 rushing yards and Over 30.5 pass attempts, as the Rams are averaging 37.5 pass attempts allowed through four games.


CASHING ON THE CARDS

Last week we mentioned how terrible the Arizona Cardinals have been at defending tight ends this year. Seattle’s Will Dissly hit the trifecta by going Over on his receptions, yards and scored a plus-money TD in the second quarter. This week Tyler Eifert will get his chance to pad the stats in Week 5’s edition of Cashing On the Cards.

The Cincinnati Bengals TE has seen at least five targets in three of his four games this year and will have a better time making more of his snaps as the Cardinals are averaging a passer rating of 118.4 to opponents – ahead of just the Dolphins. The Cincy offensive line got embarrassed on the national stage Monday night and will be a motivated to give Andy Dalton a little more time to pass.

We’re going back on the trifecta with Eifert’s unassuming totals: Over 2.5 receptions (-128), Over 30.5 yards (-114), and a touchdown anytime (+224).


OVER THEM MOUNTAINS

The Carolina Panthers have failed to hold a visiting team to under 17.5 points in eight of their last nine home games. On the other hand, Jacksonville Jaguars’ “Uncle Minshew” has led his offense to 46 points over their last two games: against the Titans’ No. 7 DVOA defense and last week in the thin air of Denver.

Don’t like trends? OK, we hear you. The Panthers put Pro-Bowler and starting DE Kawaan Short (83.7 PFF grade 2018) on IR and will be starting practice squader Brian Cox Sunday. Also, corner Donte Jackson, who has two INTs this year and is graded positively per PFF, is questionable with a groin injury that held him out last week. On top of this, the Panthers rank as the fourth-worst rushing DVOA defense.

We don’t have a good lean on the side or the total, but we are going to play the Over on Jacksonville's team total of 17.5 points in what is looking like a perfect weather game in Carolina.


WATCHING WILSON

Heading into Week 4, did you know who the Top-3 leaders in the league in rushing touchdowns were? Mark Ingram, Dalvin Cook and … second-year undrafted RB Jeff Wilson Jr. The San Francisco 49ers goal-line back is coming off a bye week which could really help bettors if he plays.

After scoring 30 touchdowns in his final two years at North Texas, Wilson Jr. leads the league in rushes inside the five-yard line and is second in rushes inside the 10.

Unfortunately, with the Week 4 rest, Tevin Coleman may return from injury and possibly push Wilson to be inactive versus the Cleveland Browns on Monday night. The Niners likely won’t dress four running backs, making things a little murkier than usual.

This is a profitable situation to monitor and worthy of your attention. If Coleman were to sit again, we are banging the Wilson anytime TD prop with confidence.