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Circa Picks - Week 4
September 28, 2019
By VI News

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3

Week 4

1) Kansas City -6.5 (809)
2) Minnesota +2 (554)
3) New England -7 (492)
4) New Orleans +2.5 (489)
5) Houston -4 (432)

CIRCA - WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Philadelphia (+4) 125 Green Bay (-4) 134
Carolina (+4) 268 Houston (-4) 432
Cleveland (+6.5) 302 Baltimore (-6.5) 376
Washington (+2.5) 178 N.Y. Giants (-2.5) 393
L.A. Chargers (-15.5) 73 Miami (+15.5) 394
Oakland (+7) 324 Indianapolis (-7) 255
Kansas City (-6.5) 809 Detroit (+6.5) 137
New England (-7) 492 Buffalo (+7) 285
Tennessee (+4) 380 Atlanta (-4) 224
Tampa Bay (+9.5) 251 L.A. Rams (-9.5) 207
Seattle (-5) 295 Arizona (+5) 220
Minnesota (+2) 554 Chicago (-2) 188
Jacksonville (+3) 325 Denver (-3) 293
Dallas (-2.5) 428 New Orleans (+2.5) 489
Cincinnati (+4) 311 Pittsburgh (-4) 143

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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SNF - Cowboys at Saints
September 27, 2019
By Matt Blunt

NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Football Betting Preview
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Cleveland Browns issues with shooting themselves in the foot with poor play calling, poor execution, and plenty of penalties continued under the lights last Sunday night, and yet, they still had four plays from inside the 10 to try and potentially tie the game at the end, but even that didn't work out well for Cleveland.

It's on to this week's game, and while schedule makers had something a little different in mind if New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees stayed healthy, the fact that the Saints looked so good last week up in Seattle with Teddy Bridgewater under center doesn't hurt. The Superdome is one of the best home field advantages there is in the game, especially in a primetime setting, and backup QB or not, New Orleans is always a tough out at home.

That's the task the Dallas Cowboys are trying to accomplish this week, as their 3-0 straight up record is going to get tested. Considering those three wins by Dallas have come against teams that enter Week 4 with a combined 1-8 SU record, you can understand the hesitation behind getting behind the Cowboys this week for some. Yet, Dallas has won all three of those games by at least 10 points, so it's not like they aren't handling their business in an appropriate manner, they've just got to make sure they continue to step up their game as the competition level rises.

Can the Cowboys go into New Orleans and prove the skeptics wrong that have reservations about their record, or will the Superdome claim another visitor as victims with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm?

Total Talk

It's not quite been all 'over' support for this game on Sunday, but that's definitely the popular side of this total to back. The opener of 45 didn't last long as the number climbed to 47 relatively quickly and has stayed pretty constant there ever since. Given that both teams are coming off 30+ point efforts a week ago, and Dallas has scored 30+ in all three games so far, you can understand why an opener of 45 would appear low and got the early action that it did.

But those questions that linger about the quality of the Cowboys opponents (Miami, Washington, N.Y. Giants) in regards to their 3-0 SU record have to be posed about the offense putting up 30+ points as well. The Saints defense isn't exactly the stoutest in the league themselves having allowed 27 or more in all three games so far, but that's only that way thanks to allowing a score on the final play of an already decided game versus Seattle last week.

New Orleans has shown at times so far through their three games this year that they can force key turnovers when needed (whether they stand or not), hold teams to kicking FG's, and even last week's score looks worse then it really was as Seattle had just 7 points entering the 4th. The Saints defense knows that they are going to have to do more of the heavy lifting right now with Brees on the shelf, and they proved it for at least three quarters against Seattle before playing soft with a very big lead.

At the same time, questions about the Cowboys defense have to remain given the whole quality of foe discussion, and they do catch a break not having to face Brees here. It's still the Superdome though and using running back Ezekiel Elliott and that big offensive line to dictate the tempo and control the clock to help take the fans out of the game and negate some of the Superdome effect should be in the cards for Dallas this week. Questions may remain about this Cowboys defense, but the less time they are out on the field trying to answer those questions, the better those answers may ultimately end up looking.

Line Movements

The side has been an interesting one all week, as the opener of -3.5 on Dallas didn't last long at all, while it only took about a day or so to have all those +3's on New Orleans get bought up. Since then, it's been -2.5 with the juice bouncing back and forth as bettors come in on both sides.

Typically, when a spread bounces around like that but does not hit a full three points again, those backing the favorite should be slightly concerned. Obviously, whatever happens on the field happens on the field, but for it to not get back to a full three points on Dallas suggests that there is so much resistance from New Orleans backers at that number, that books will gladly hope the game doesn't land on a three-point win for Dallas and sweep up all the vig in the end.

Again, questions about the legitimacy of the Cowboys record has something to do with that action, as does the Saints being at home in prime time, but it's hard to figure there is a distinct edge either way now. It's probably best to sit back and let the action unfold, and use whatever happens to help formulate your opinion on both teams going into Week 5.

Final Thoughts

With the side being a hard pass, it's only the total I'd be interested in looking at here. While the initial 'over' money has to be respected, based on potential game script for this game – Dallas featuring a heavy dose of the run, and New Orleans potentially doing the same with a backup QB – at 47, and the total not rising since that early move there, I believe you can only look 'under' now.

Prime time games this year have been on a crazy 'under' run as it was, before Chicago/Washington and Philly/GB easily cashed 'over' tickets this week, but Sunday Night games have yet to see a high-scoring game, and I'm not sure they will get one here either – the Colts/Chiefs in Week 5 for SNF is probably a different story.

I don't think the Cowboys streak of scoring 30+ continues in this game, and for all the resistance the Saints spread bettors have created, I'm not sure their best approach to victory would be a 28-24 type affair. The Saints are on a 2-6 O/U run off a SU win as it is, 0-4 O/U off an ATS win, and Dallas has seen the 'under' cash in five of their last six games after allowing 14 points or less.

Win or lose, those that question the legitimacy of how good this Dallas team truly is this year likely get some fuel for their fire from the Cowboys performance this week, as 24-21 for either team is written all over this game.

Best Bet: Under 47 points

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Sunday's Essentials - Week 4
September 29, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Panthers at Texans (-5/47.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Kyle Allen was fantastic in his first start taking over for Cam Newton and will be playing in front of friends and family back where he went to college. Since Newton wasn’t able to throw the ball consistently downfield, we’re seeing Norv Turner digging deeper into his playbook. The Texans are better in the back than Patrick Peterson-less Arizona but have to be wary of wrinkles they haven’t seen on tape. Houston will need to get pressure to keep Allen from finding a rhythm, so J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus will need to take advantage of guard Trai Turner’s absence as the Panthers do some reshuffling up front.

Laremy Tunsil has worked with three different guards next to him since arriving from Miami, so continuity hasn’t been something the Texans have enjoyed up front. Deshaun Watson’s ability to keep plays alive with his feet has been a major factor in the Texans’ early success considering all the moving parts they’ve had to deal with this month, so we could see some progress here in terms of consistency instead of them just popping off big plays. After facing pocket passers Jameis Winston and Jared Goff early, Carolina had to be wary of Kyler Murray last week and will face similar challenges here.

Browns at Ravens (-7/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: It’s unseasonably warm in Baltimore and will be in the mid-80’s, which could be a factor since Baltimore has stayed remarkably healthy by their standards this early in the season, coming off a productive camp and preseason. Lamar Jackson is off to a much better start than Baker Mayfield, who the Ravens picked off four times last season in splitting a pair of wild games. Jackson only started the finale, getting the Ravens into the postseason with a Week 17 win by running for a pair of scores.

The Browns will have to try and limit big plays without corners Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, so it’s going to be important that they get to Jackson early because breakdowns are certainly possible. Ward missed the Rams game with a hamstring issue and Williams stepped up but hasn’t practiced this week. The rookie from LSU is also dealing with a hamstring injury, so if he goes, expect the Ravens to see just how large an issue that is. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown could have a big day.

Redskins at Giants (-3/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Daniel Jones has a really good shot at back-to-back wins to open his career given the Redskins’ injury-related issues, and it would certainly merit the hype he’d receive in the world’s top media market since he’s going to have to win a game without Saquon Barkley again. After leading the Bucs to a comeback win following Barkley’s second-quarter high ankle sprain, Jones will again be working with Wayne Gallman in the backfield and should have enough in Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram to move the ball against a suspect Washington secondary that even allowed Mitchell Trubisky to look good on Monday night.

Case Keenum is going to try and play through a foot injury that kept him out of practice earlier this week, while top target Terry McLaurin is also likely to go after being held out with a hamstring issue. The electric rookie has scored a touchdown in all three of his games and could be a problem for a New York secondary that had no prayer of stopping Mike Evans and the Bucs’ receiving corps last week and also got torched in Week 1 by Dallas. Clear conditions are expected in East Rutherford, so we could see points if Keenum can stay upright. We could also see Dwayne Haskins debut in relief. The rookie shootout angle would be fun. At this point, Washington has proven incapable of running adequately with Trent Williams still a holdout.

Chargers (-14.5/44.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The latest astronomical spread involving the Dolphins should give you some pause since the Chargers aren’t unbeaten like the Patriots and Cowboys, in fact coming off consecutive losses. Josh Rosen threw for 200 yards against Dallas and moved the offense down the field before sputtering in the red zone, so Miami may be making some progress as reps set in. The offensive line will have to deal with Joey Bosa, T.J. Watt and a disruptive front seven that should have Casey Hayward in the mix despite his questionable status.

Los Angeles has a number of offensive issues that could be of concern if they’re just trying to kill clock and get out of South Florida with a .500 record and no need for style points. Tight ends Hunter Henry and Virgil Green have been ruled out, WR Mike Williams is sidelined too and speedy Travis Benjamin is considered doubtful. Justin Jackson won’t play, which means we’re likely to see Melvin Gordon debut after ending his holdout. It could be a blessing to have him out there getting carries if you’re looking to put the game away. Keenan Allen has 29 receptions and three touchdowns and figures to be a major part of the Chargers’ game plan.

Raiders at Colts (-6.5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Derek Carr’s struggles on the road continued in Minnesota. He threw touchdown passes at the end of both halves, the last with the team down 34-7, and has now thrown 16 interceptions and just 18 touchdowns over the past two plus-seasons. He’s got a shot to rebound here since the Colts will be down top linebacker Darius Leonard and safety Malik Hooker. Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards last week against this Indy defense, so if Derek Waller can continue creating mismatches, we could see Tyrell Williams and rookie Hunter Renfrow step up and help Carr turn the page on his road struggles. J

Jacoby Brissett has been tremendous in filling in for Andrew Luck thus far but might be missing No. 1 receiver T.Y. Hilton, who will be a game-time decision with a quad injury. Indy has been able to utilize its fantastic offensive line to get Marlon Mack off, so if Hilton is out, it’s likely we’ll see the Raiders key in on the run and put this game in Brissett’s hands. Vontaze Burfict will be available after missing practice time so the Raiders will have their defensive leader in place. Oakland’s offensive line is banged up, so it might be difficult to sustain drives if Carr is inaccurate and get rattled.

Chiefs (-7/54.5) at Lions, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Tyreek Hill is close to a return, likely expedited since he’s missing out on all the fun that’s gone on without him. Patrick Mahomes is your early MVP again given his numbers, having thrown for over 370 yards and 3-plus touchdowns against some solid defensive coverages. He’s gotten huge gains from Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman and hasn’t even gotten a monster game from Travis Kelce. It’s going to be hard for a Detroit defense without Darius Slay to consistently get stops, but that may be the nightmare facing Matt Patricia if his top corner can’t play through a hamstring issue. He’ll be a game-time decision. Defensive tackle Mike Daniels has already been ruled out and DT Da’Shawn Hand has been banged up for weeks, so this isn’t the ideal day for the NFL’s top offensive team to come through for a visit.

Matthew Stafford will play through a hip injury and back pain while Danny Amendola should be fine to play through a chest contusion, so the Lions should be equipped to move the football if their defense can’t hold up against Mahomes and this turns into a shootout. If Stafford can’t make it through four quarters, Jeff Driskel is expected to fill in. He’ll give the Chiefs different looks due to his ability to run the ball and keep drives alive with his scrambling, but it would be hard to see Detroit remaining unbeaten if Stafford is incapable of finishing this game out.

Patriots (-7/41.5) at Bills, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: With the Antonio Brown circus leaving town, the Patriots had a normal week where they could actually concentrate on football and an actual threat, fellow unbeaten Buffalo, a division rival. The Patriots have had some offensive line issues creep up and Brady has been hit a little more than he would like, but ultimately, the Patriots are coming through the first month of the potentially temporary post-Gronk era with flying colors. Left tackle Marshall Newhouse will be able to play as he looks to keep a fierce Bills defense from getting to Brady. Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett have emerged next to Julian Edelman, who will play despite a chest injury. Defensive leader Dont’a Hightower is expected to go after missing portions of practice with a shoulder injury.

The Bills have dropped five straight games against New England and have lost 28 of their last 31 in this series. Josh Allen’s ability to make plays with his feet provides an interesting wrinkle, but Buffalo will be without rookie RB Devin Singletary once again. The Bills have had to do some reshuffling up front, so they’ll need to try and create turnovers and utilize Frank Gore to chew up clock and keep the chains moving as they look to pull off an upset. The Bills have defeated teams that enter the day a combined 1-8, so this will truly be a test for both teams since the Patriots have beaten teams that come in 0-9.

Titans at Falcons (-3.5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Titans and Falcons are each hoping to avoid a 1-3 start, so this should be one of the day’s most competitive games. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be fun to watch. Tennessee’s primary objective is to clean up their mistakes up front that have led to Marcus Mariota being sacked 17 times over the first three games. Left tackle Tyler Lewan has been suspended and should be back next week, so Tennessee will do whatever it takes to try and finish at .500 without him. They would certainly feel good about that considering what a disaster life has been without him and guard Kevin Pamphile.

The Falcons have to pull off this home win to keep the sharks from circling around head coach Dan Quinn. Matt Ryan hasn’t been sacked over the course of two prior meetings with Tennessee but has already thrown six interceptions in contributing to his team’s uneven start. There’s no question he’s struggling to find a rhythm and is already one pick shy of his total from all of last season. He’s facing a secondary that can punish mistakes as they did in their lone victory so far on the road in Cleveland. The Titans have dropped consecutive games against the Falcons, last winning in Atlanta way back in 2003.

Bucs at Rams (-9/49), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: The Bucs let a win get away after a Matt Gay chip-shot field goal missed at the gun, allowing the Giants to steal a game in Tampa that they had trailed all day. Jameis Winston has played much better since an awful debut against the 49ers but now finds himself on the west coast against an unbeaten Rams team that has seen their defense serve as a driving force. While Winston got his chemistry going with Mike Evans against New York, he won’t have Chris Godwin for this game and may not have tackle Demar Dotson protecting him from the likes of Aaron Donald. The Rams come into this one extremely healthy and are hoping to get Jared Goff off against one of the league’s worst secondaries.

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


KERRYON’S LUGGAGE

After the Detroit Lions released running back C.J. Anderson last week, starter Kerryon Johnson handled a career-high 20 carries. Johnson was used as a three-down back and handled the goal-line work as well. Although the yardage wasn’t impressive (36 yards), his volume was. The Lions will have to get the ball in Johnson’s hands if they want to keep pace in what will be a high-tempo game against the Kansas City Sunday.

The Chiefs defense has given up 343 total yards to running backs in the last two weeks including 75 yards receiving. Johnson’s volume and skillset make this a perfect spot to exploit his markets. His rushing total sits at 69.5 yards (-114 at Pinnacle) and his receiving total is a mere 19.5 yards (-112). We like this spot so much that we are doubling down on the Over on both his rushing and receiving totals instead of just his total yards, but if we had to choose one, we would recommend the receiving total as it could be won on a single play.

ROAD DOGS

Covers Senior Editor Jason Logan puts out an impressive weekly piece about the best underdog bets of the week. So far, he is 7-2 and it should be a weekly read for anyone looking to get free points. We don’t go all-in on trends around here, but when road dogs are hitting 22-10-1 ATS we are listening.

The Atlanta Falcons defense allowed Colts QB Jacoby Brissett to go a perfect 16-for-16 to start the game last week and are a bottom-six DVOA defense. The Falcons are also dealing with a myriad of injuries at the safety position as Keanu Neal and J.J. Wilcox are both on the I.R.

The Tennessee Titans are no offensive force, ranking 17th in DVOA offense but have also allowed just 33 points in two away games this year. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is sometimes tough to stomach, but he is a competent road QB as his road and home splits are eerily similar. We're taking the points here.


TUCK AND RUN

One of our favorite player props to play is quarterback rushing totals. With valuable totals as low as 15 yards, it’s a wager that can be won on a single play, and that’s something we can get behind. Here is a list of some plays that you can choose if you want to add another element to a game that you may be watching:

Marcus Mariota 23.5 (-115) Mariota is third in QB rushing yards and ran for 32 and 34 yards in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively. With Atlanta’s secondary troubles, look for the Titans QB to keep it in the air instead of the ground.
Daniel Jones 20.5 (-109) Danny Dimes waited until the last moments to pass his rushing total of 22.5 yards last week. This week looks even more appetizing for a QB who ran for a pair of TDs in his first start.
DeShaun Watson 27.5 (-109) Watson averaged 34 rushing yards a game in 2018. That mark has slipped a bit to 21 yards through three weeks this year. The Texans’ opponents, the Carolina Panthers, didn’t concede a single QB rush attempt versus Kyler Murray last week.
Lamar Jackson 51.5 (-114) Lamar unsurprisingly leads all QBs in rushing yards averaging 57 yards a game with 166 yards in the last two weeks. Cleveland allowed 14 yards to Jared Goff last week who has 12 yards all year (not a typo).
Jacoby Brissett 14.5 (-109) With the lowest total of the group, Brissett isn’t a pull-it-down-and-run QB with rushing totals of 9, 25 and 4 over the last three weeks. The Raiders did, however, let Kirk Cousins take off four times in Week 3 for 16 yards.


PUSH YOU ALL’EN

Josh Allen is 3-0 at clearing his passing yards total to start the year. Last week was a little sweaty but cashed nonetheless. This week will really test the trend as the Buffalo Bills will welcome the league’s best passing defense in the New England Patriots.

The Pats are allowing 162.3 passing yards a game but have played quarterbacks Luke Falk and Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen. In 2018, New England’s passing defense was the 11th-worst in passing yards allowed per game at 247.7. Allen did not play the Pats at home last season but put up 217 yards on 20-of-41 passing at Gillette Stadium.

With running back Devin Singletary returning to practice after missing Week 3, it gives Allen one more weapon who is capable of busting big yards after the catch. We are looking to go 4-0, just like the Bills, and taking Josh Allen’s Over 205.5 passing yards.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OAK at IND 01:00 PM
IND -6.5
U 45.5

KC at DET 01:00 PM
KC -7.5
O 54.5

TEN at ATL 01:00 PM
TEN +3.0

NE at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF +7.0
U 41.5

CAR at HOU 01:00 PM
CAR +5.5

CLE at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -7.5
U 46.0

LAC at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +15.0
O 43.5

WAS at NYG 01:00 PM
WAS +3.5

TB at LAR 04:05 PM
TB +9.0
U 48.5

SEA at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI +5.5
U 48.0

MIN at CHI 04:25 PM
MIN +1.0

JAC at DEN 04:25 PM
JAC +2.5
U 37.0

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

DAL at NO 08:20 PM

DAL -2.5

O 47.0

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 4
September 29, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Sept. 30

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 8:15 p.m. EDT. A matchup of winless AFC North rivals as the Bengals (0-3) square off against the Steelers (0-3). Pittsburgh has won eight straight in the series, and 11 of 12 - with Cincinnati's only victory during that span at Heinz Field in 2015. The Bengals are trying to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008. Meanwhile, Mason Rudolph makes his second straight start in place of the injured Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers.

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STARS

Passing

- Jameis Winston, Buccaneers, passed for 385 yards and four touchdowns and an interception in Tampa Bay's 55-40 victory over the previously unbeaten Los Angeles Rams.

- Philip Rivers, Chargers, threw for 310 yards and two scores to help Los Angeles win in Miami for the first time in 38 years, 30-10.

- Marcus Mariota, Titans, threw three first-half touchdown passes, leading Tennessee to a 24-10 victory over Atlanta.

- Baker Mayfield, Browns, passed for 342 yards and a touchdown and an interception in Cleveland's 40-25 victory at Baltimore.

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, converted a fourth down with a 15-yard run to extend a game-winning drive and finished with a career-high 56 yards rushing while going 24 of 42 for 315 yards in Kansas City's 34-30 win at Detroit.

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Rushing

- Nick Chubb, Browns, ran for 165 yards and three scores against the league's third-ranked rushing defense to help Cleveland top Baltimore 40-25.

- Leonard Fournette, Jaguars, rushed for a career-high 225 yards on 29 carries in Jacksonville's 26-24 win at Denver.

- Kerryon Johnson, Lions, had 125 yards rushing on 26 carries in Detroit's 34-30 loss to Kansas City.

- Frank Gore, Bills, ran for 109 yards in Buffalo's 16-10 loss to New England and became the fourth player in NFL history to top 15,000 yards rushing.

- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, had 93 yards rushing and a touchdown and led Carolina with 86 yards receiving on 10 receptions in a 16-10 win at Houston.

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Receiving

- Chris Godwin, Buccaneers, had 12 catches for 172 yards in Tampa Bay's 55-40 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

- Jarvis Landry, Browns, caught eight passes for 167 yards in Cleveland's 40-25 win at Baltimore.

- Robert Woods, Rams, had 13 receptions for 164 yards in Los Angeles' 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay.

- A.J. Brown, Titans, caught two touchdown passes in Tennessee's 24-10 victory at Atlanta.

- Austin Hooper, Falcons, had 130 yards receiving on nine receptions in Atlanta's 24-10 loss to Tennessee.

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Special Teams

- Josh Lambo, Jaguars, kicked a 33-yard field goal as time expired, sending Jacksonville past the winless Denver Broncos 26-24.

- J.C. Jackson and Matthew Slater, Patriots. Jackson blocked a punt - and also intercepted two passes on defense - and Slater recovered the ball and returned it 11 yards for a touchdown in New England's 16-10 victory at Buffalo.

- Wil Lutz, Saints, kicked four field goals in New Orleans' 12-10 win over Dallas, accounting for all of his team's scoring.

- Matt Gay, Buccaneers, booted two field goals and made all seven of his extra-point attempts in Tampa Bay's 55-40 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

- Eddy Pineiro, Bears, kicked three field goals and an extra point to account for 10 of Chicago's points in a 16-6 win over Minnesota.

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Defense

- Ndamukong Suh and Shaquil Barrett, Buccaneers. Suh returned Jared Goff's fumble 37 yards for a touchdown with 1:06 to play in Tampa Bay's 55-40 victory over the previously unbeaten Los Angeles Rams. Barrett had a sack, forced fumble and an interception.

- Bashaud Breeland, Chiefs, recovered Kerryon Johnson's fumble and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown in Kansas City's 34-30 win at Detroit.

- Jabrill Peppers, Giants, scored on a 32-yard interception return in New York's 24-3 win over Washington.

- Erik Harris, Raiders, returned a late interception 30 yards for a score to seal a 31-24 victory for Oakland at Indianapolis.

- Jadeveon Clowney, Seahawks, returned his first career interception 27 yards for a touchdown to help Seattle top Arizona 27-10.

- Desmond King, Chargers, led Los Angeles' defensive charge with 2+ sacks, a tackle for a loss and two quarterback hits in a 30-10 win at Miami.

- Vonn Bell, Saints, forced a fumble and had two recoveries to help lift New Orleans to a 12-10 victory Dallas.

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MILESTONES

Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald had five catches for 47 yards in the Cardinals' 27-10 loss to Seattle, giving him 1,326 for his career - surpassing Tony Gonzalez (1,325) for the second most in NFL history. Only Jerry Rice (1,549) has more. ... Buffalo's Frank Gore rushed for 109 yards in the Bills' 16-10 loss to New England, giving him 15,021 for his career - the fourth player with at least 15,000. He joins Pro Football Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith (18,355), Walter Payton (16,726) and Barry Sanders (15,269). ... Atlanta's Julio Jones had four catches for 52 yards in his 115th game, giving him 11,048 yards receiving - surpassing Calvin Johnson (127 games) to become the fastest player in NFL history to reach the mark.

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STREAKS & STATS

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes had his streak of throwing at least two touchdown passes stopped at 14 games after going without one in the Chiefs' 34-30 win at Detroit. He was also the first player in league history to have at least 350 yards passing and three touchdowns without an interception in three straight games before getting slowed in Detroit. He was 24 of 42 for 315 yards against the Lions. ... The Chargers' 30-10 victory was the team's first in Miami since an overtime playoff thriller in January 1982. They had lost eight straight in Miami. ... Tom Brady's 45.9 passer rating in New England's 16-10 win at Buffalo was the sixth lowest of his career and lowest since finishing with a 34 rating in a 27-20 loss to Indianapolis on Nov. 5, 2006. The Patriots had lost the previous six times Brady finished with a passer rating of 48 or lower. Brady did improve to 31-3 against Buffalo, extending the NFL career mark for most victories by a quarterback against one opponent. ... The Seahawks continued their dominance inside State Farm Stadium with another win, 27-10 at Arizona. Seattle hasn't lost in Glendale since 2012, with a 6-0-1 record during that span, including a 2016 tie. ... Tampa Bay's 55-40 win over the Los Angeles Rams was the highest-scoring game in the Buccaneers' 44-year history. ... Leonard Fournette ran for a career-high 225 yards in Jacksonville's 26-24 win over Denver, ending the Jaguars' drought of 100-yard rushes at 22 games - the second-longest streak in the NFL behind Philadelphia's 32-game drought. ... New England's Devin McCourty has an interception in four straight games to start the season.

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STARTS

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to lead a team to multiple 4-0 starts before his 25th birthday. ... New England is 4-0 for the first time in four years. ... Washington's 0-4 start is its worst since the Redskins lost their first five in 2001.

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GOFF OFF

Jared Goff passed for a career-high 517 yards and two touchdowns, but the Rams' $134 million quarterback also threw three interceptions for the second time in his career as Los Angeles fell to Tampa Bay 55-40. He completed 45 of a whopping 68 passes, and also lost a fumble that was returned 37 yards for a touchdown by Ndamukong Suh.

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DARTH RAIDER

Raiders linebacker Vontaze Burfict was ejected early in the second quarter of Oakland's 31-24 win at Indianapolis after being called for unnecessary roughness on a helmet-to-helmet collision with tight end Jack Doyle. Even before referee Scott Novak announced to the crowd what a replay review determined, Burfict was jogging into the locker room. It's not the first time Burfict has run afoul of league rules. He had 11 fines and suspensions in seven seasons with Cincinnati before joining the Raiders.

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BIG GUYS UP FRONT

Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota praised the protection provided by his offensive line after he was not sacked in the Titans' 24-10 win at Atlanta. It was a dramatic turnaround for the line after Tennessee allowed 17 sacks in its first three games - almost six per game. ''Those guys up front did a great job,'' Mariota said.

---

SHAQ ATTAQ

Tampa Bay linebacker Shaquil Barrett had a sack, forced fumble and interception in the Buccaneers' 55-40 win over the Los Angeles Rams. He has nine sacks this season, tied with Mark Gastineau (1984), Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (2001) and Kevin Greene (1998) for the most through a team's first four games since 1982 when the individual sack became an official statistic.

---

BIG MAC

Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey had 179 yards from scrimmage yards - 93 rushing and 86 receiving - and a touchdown run in the Panthers' 16-10 win at Houston. He had 209 yards from scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 and 188 yards from scrimmage yards and a touchdown in Week 3, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Jim Brown (1963) as the only players in league history with three games of at least 175 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown in their team's first four games of a season. McCaffrey also caught 10 passes in the win Sunday, his sixth career game with at least that many - tying Larry Centers and LaDainian Tomlinson for the most career games with at least 10 by a running back in NFL history.

---

TARGET PRACTICE

Oakland tight end Darren Waller had seven catches for 53 yards in the Raiders' 31-24 win at Indianapolis. That gives him 33 receptions on the season, tying him with Antonio Gates (33 in 2007) for the most catches by a tight end through his team's first four games of a season in NFL history.

---

NOT FOR LONG

The Miami Dolphins (0-4) held a lead for the first time this season, but it lasted only 3 minutes, 49 seconds as they lost 30-10 to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have been outscored 163-26 this season, which is the NFL's worst four-game point differential since at least 1940.

---

SIDELINED

Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky left the game against Minnesota because of a left shoulder injury. A scrambling Trubisky was hurt on the opening possession when Danielle Hunter dragged him down and the quarterback's arm got pinned awkwardly under his body as the ball popped out. ... Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was placed in the NFL's concussion protocol after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit by Patriots defensive back Jonathan Jones in the opening minute of the fourth quarter of a 16-10 loss to New England. ... Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Melvin Ingram left the game in the first quarter at Miami with a hamstring injury. ... Detroit tight end T.J. Hockenson (concussion) was carted off the field in the third quarter against Kansas City. Chiefs defensive end Alex Okafor (hip) and linebacker Damien Wilson (concussion) left in the fourth quarter of the win at Detroit. ... Houston wide receiver Kenny Stills injured his hamstring on the last play of the first quarter against Carolina and didn't return.

---

SPEAKING

''It was terrible. We've got to do better ... I don't really have any answers. I've got to go back and watch the film. I have to start like right now.'' - Houston coach Bill O'Brien after the Texans struggled on offense in a 16-10 loss to Carolina.

---

''You're 0-4 and you've got two options: You can hang your head and feel sorry for yourself or you can come out and battle your (butt) off next week, which I know we will. It's unfortunate. Nobody saw this coming, starting the season like this. I sure didn't, but here we are. Reality has set in.'' - Washington coach Jay Gruden after the Redskins dropped to 0-4 with a 24-4 loss to the New York Giants.

---

''If one of us did that to 12, we wouldn't have been in the game anymore,'' Buffalo safety Micah Hyde, referring to Tom Brady's number after New England's Jonathan Jones drew only a personal foul for unnecessary roughness and wasn't also ejected from the game after his helmet-to-helmet hit on Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, September 30, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers

WEEK 5

Thursday, October 3, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, October 6, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Houston Texans
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings New York Giants
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Oakland Raiders
1:00 PM New York Jets Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM New England Patriots Washington Redskins
4:05 PM Denver Broncos Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM Indianapolis Colts Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, October 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cleveland Browns San Francisco 49ers


****************************************


NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/29/2019.....8-14-0..........36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1..........53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1...........57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0...........75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0..........61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0........... 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............61-55-1........ 53.44%............ +2.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................25 - 27............-18.00.............28 - 22 ...........+19.00..........+1.00

[StarDust Bum]

*Armadillo: Monday's six-pack*

Top six picks for Week 4 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Texans -4.5 (752)- L

5) Saints +2.5 (812)- W

4) Cowboys -2.5 (845)- L

3) Vikings +1.5 (861)- L

2) Patriots -7 (930)- L

1) Chiefs -6.5 (1,463)- L

2019 record: 13-11


**********

*Armadillo: Monday's Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…… *

*Patriots 16, Bills 10:*
— Patriots scored only one offensive TD; they also blocked a punt for a TD.
— NE on eight drives that started 75+ yards from end zone: 0 points, 7 first downs.
— NE is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a divisional road favorite.

— Buffalo outgained New England 375-224, but was -3 in turnovers.
— Bills scored the first offensive TD vs NE this year, on Patriots’ 42nd defensive drive.
— Buffalo lost for 29th time in last 31 games against New England.

*Carolina 16, Texans 10:*
— Carolina won both of backup QB Kyle Allen’s starts, after an 0-2 start with Cam Newton.
— Panthers are now 24-11 ATS in last 35 games as a road underdog.
— There were only four plays of 20+ yards in this game, 2nd least in any game this year.

— Houston’s only TD came on an 18-yard drive after they recovered a fumble.
— Texans averaged only 3.2 yards/pass attempt.
— AFC South teams are 7-3 vs spread this year outside the division.

*Browns 40, Ravens 25: *

— Heard a saying the other day: “Each week is a new season.” Fits the Browns in Week 4.
— Nick Chubb ran the ball 20 times for 165 yards and three TD’s.
— Browns in 2nd half: 25 plays, 292 yards, 30 points.

— Cleveland gained 530 yards, averaged 8.7 yards per play.
— Game was 10-7 at halftime; Ravens turned ball over three times in 2nd half.
— Last three games, Baltimore allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt.

*Giants 24, Redskins 3:*
— Washington became 8th team to change QB’s this year when they benched Keenum after he missed a wide open WR for what would’ve been a long TD pass.
— Rookie QB Haskins was 9-17/107 passing, ran for 23 yards.
— Redskins have allowed 118 points in their 0-4 start.

— Daniel Jones is now 2-0 as an NFL starter.
— Janoris Jenkins caught two of Haskins’ three INT’s.
— Both teams turned ball over four times; yardage was 389-176, Giants.

*Chargers 30, Dolphins 10:*
— Total yardage in 2nd half was 156-36, Chargers.
— Chargers converted 8-13 on third down, averaged 9.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Win breaks Bolts’ 38-year, 8-game losing streak on South Beach.

— Dolphins in 2nd half: 18 plays, 45 yards, 3 first downs.
— Miami has been outscored 81-0 in second half of games.
— 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.

*Raiders 31, Colts 24:*
— Oakland’s first two drives: 11 plays, 135 yards, two touchdowns.
— Raiders are 4-13-1 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog
— Oakland scored clinching pick-6 with 2:09 left.

— Colts were outrushed 188-81
— Indy was outgained 193-15 in first quarter, outgained Oakland 129-24 in second.
— Colts threw 46 passes, ran ball only 23 times, a bad ratio for them.

*Chiefs 34, Lions 30:*
— Game was 13-13 with 9:30 left in 3rd quarter; Lions had ball on 1-yard line, but fumbled and KC ran it back 99 yards for a TD.
— Chiefs scored winning TD with 0:20 left after a 79-yard drive.
— KC has now scored 15 touchdowns on 38 drives.

— There were five lost fumbles in this game, all in the third quarter.
— Detroit lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position.
— NFC North teams are 7-2-1 ATS outside the division.

*Titans 24, Falcons 10:*
— Tennessee had a 17-yard edge in field position, which is huge.
— Titans averaged 7.7/8.4 yds/pass attempt in their wins, 3.7/5.1 in their losses.
— Home team lost seven of the eight 1:00 games this week; only the Giants won.

— Falcons ran ball 17 times for 58 yards; in four games, they’ve got 281 rushing yards.
— Ryan was 35-53/397 passing in a losing cause.
— Atlanta is now 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents

*Buccaneers 55, Rams 40:*
— Winston was very efficient: 28-41/385 yards, four TD’s.
— Bucs scored 55 points, had only three plays of 20+ yards.
— Tampa dedicated game to their GM Licht, whose father died Saturday.

— You cannot win NFL games when you turn the ball over four times.
— Goff threw for 517 yards; 164 yards to Woods, 121 to Kupp.
— Under McVay, LA is 7-9 ATS as a home favorite.

*Seahawks 27, Cardinals 10:*
— Seattle wins its sixth straight visit to the desert.
— This was first game this season Seahawks led at halftime.
— Seattle scored two TD’s in 0:44 span in 1st quarter, second one a defensive TD.

— Cardinals have been outscored 68-22 in first half of games.
— Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four NFL games.
— Arizona is 0-3-1, and they’ve only played one road game.

*Bears 16, Vikings 6:*
— Vikings are 2-0 at home, scoring 28-34 points, 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points.
— Minnesota ran ball for 40 yards here, after running for 591 yards in Weeks 1-3.
— Vikings are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road dog, 7-11 in last 18 games on natural grass.

— Trubisky hurt his left shoulder; Chase Daniel was 22-30/195 passing.
— Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, started four games, made $34.3M in salary.
— Under Nagy, Chicago is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite.

*Jaguars 26, Broncos 24:*
— Fournette ran 29 times for 225 yards.
— Jaguars ran 76 plays, Denver only 54.
— In second half, Jax ran 47 plays for 315 yards, scored 20 points.

— Denver lost its two home games, both on last-second field goals.
— Broncos led 17-6 at halftime, took 24-23 lead with 1:32 left after a 75-yard drive.
— Denver still has zero takeaways, but they did get their first five sacks this year.

*Saints 12, Cowboys 10:*
— Dallas ran for only 45 yards, after running for 213-235 yards in Weeks 2-3.
— Teams who were minus-2 or worse in turnovers this week are 0-6.
— Cowboys scored 35-31-31 points in their first three games.


— New Orleans failed to score an offensive TD for second time in three weeks.
— Last time Saints won without scoring a TD was back in 1998.
— Four trips to the red zone, Saints kicked four field goals.

[StarDust Bum]

Books Win Big In Week 4 Action
September 30, 2019
By Micah Roberts

The underdogs were barking loud in Sunday’s NFL Week 4 action to the extreme extent that seven of the nine 'dogs covering the spread didn’t even need the points, winning their games outright.

“Sharps did well, and we went 2-4 in games where we took six figures, but it was still by far our biggest win of the season,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. “We did really well to parlays and teasers with so many underdogs covering and winning on the day.”

When nine 'dogs cover on an NFL Sunday it’s usually going to be an awful week for the betting public and the books scoop most of the chips. Stoneback’s example of losing to large money and wiseguys and still winning big shows just how important the regular Joe is to the bottom line. He went a step further to clarify how good the week was.

“If we compare today’s results to all last season's regular season Sundays and all of this year's (Sunday) it would rank in the top-5 best results,” he said.

There’s always that big root game to parlays either flourishing early and gaining momentum throughout each result posted on the day, or crushing the parlay dead right out of the gate. Week 4 had a big one, and lots of other little exterminators helping out.

“Our biggest win of the day was the Chiefs not covering,” Stoneback said of the Chiefs (-7.5) 34-30 win with a TD in the final seconds. “And after that our best decisions were the Browns, Chargers, and Jaguars.”

An outright Chiefs win would have immediately destroyed thousands of teasers, but there were plenty of other popular teams hovering past key numbers that would fall later. Teams like the Ravens were seven-point home favorites and the ideal number to tease, but they lost outright to the Browns, 40-25. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was offering the Browns moneyline at +300.

The crazy thing about the Browns win is that they were a popular public bet the first three weeks after being one of the biggest Super Bowl futures coming into the season. But after watching them look so pathetic on the big stage last Monday night, the public abandoned ship and bet against them. Now the books have the public right where they want them for the next few weeks second-guessing themselves. Don’t always believe what you saw last.

However, that theory may not apply to the sad Dolphins who lost 30-10 at home to the Chargers. But as bad as the Dolphins are, the number usually levels things out with a stink tax added to the spread which was about four points added to the number this week that wiseguys had to bite on. They pushed the number from -16 down to -14.5. The public wasn’t excited about laying the big number in straight bets, parlays, or teasers so didn't get Chargers money anywhere making it was one of the few games the books beat the sharps on this week.

The Dolphins are the only NFL team not cover a spread this season at 0-4 against the spread. Another ATS note is that all three teams that had been a perfect 3-0 ATS coming into Week 4 all failed to cover Sunday (Chiefs, Rams, Patriots).

The Broncos had been -3 at home against the Jaguars most of the week, a number which traditionally has been a steal with them at Mile High, but when Station Casinos moved them to -2.5 on Saturday no one came running to the bet windows with urgency. Sharps sniffed the stench out and said "no thanks" while the public was reliving old memories of Von Miller winning the Super Bowl MVP. “Laying less than a field goal at home, playing the Jaguars who will be playing without cornerback Jalen Ramsey? Sure I’ll throw the Broncos onto my parlay,” is what a typical thought process was this week for some.

But the Broncos would somehow blow another late lead at home and lose 26-24 to drop to 0-4 making it eight straight losses dating back to last season. Vic Fangio’s first head coaching job at any level in his career isn’t going so well, but his defense did get finally its first sack of 2019.

Other games that went against the public was the Panthers 16-10 win at Houston (-5.5), the Bills (+7) 16-10 home loss to the Patriots, and the Raiders 31-24 stomping at Indianapolis (-5.5), a game that never felt as close as the final result.

“It was an incredible day,” said Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis. “Everything went right.”

One of those games the public liked on their parlays and teasers were the Rams as 9-point home favorites and proceeded to get pounded 55-40 by the Buccaneers.

However, Stoneback’s MGM books were one of the few to take it on the chin with the Bucs.

“Our worst game was the Buccaneers because we had a large six-figure wager on them,” he said.

Circa Sportsbook offered a Nevada-best moneyline on the Bucs at +390.

The week started well with the Eagles (+5) winning at Green Bay on Thursday and the hot roll was so good that hardly anything carried over into the night game. CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said: “the game was a win-win, in the black whoever wins.”

A win-win on the late game rarely happens, but it did in Week 4. The Saints won 12-10 against the Cowboys (-2.5) as a home 'dog.

Overall, favorites went 4-9 ATS Sunday and 4-10 ATS including the Eagles' Thursday night win and six of the 14 games went over the total. I also found it interesting that 11 of the 14 games were won by the road team.

Excluding the Week 4 Monday Night game, road teams have gone 35-26-1 straight up and 40-21-1 (65%) against the spread this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 4
September 30, 2019
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 4 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 3-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-11
Against the Spread 5-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-24-1
Against the Spread 24-37-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 26-35-1
Against the Spread 20-41-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-34

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9.5, ML +375) at Rams, 55-40
Browns (+7, ML +280) at Ravens, 40-25
Panthers (+5.5, ML +210) at Texans, 16-10
Raiders (+5.5, ML +210) at Colts, 31-24
Eagles (+3.5, ML +170) at Packers, 34-27
Titans (+3.5, ML +160) at Falcons, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-14.5) at Dolphins, 30-10
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals, 27-10
Giants (-3) vs. Redskins, 24-3

Living Up To The Hype

-- The Cleveland Browns (+7, ML +280) hit the road for a key AFC North battle against the Baltimore Ravens, and their struggling offense finally hit its stride. The Browns entered the day with 49 points scored through three games, or 16.3 PPG, but they erupted for 40 in this one to help the books immensely. The Browns are now 0-2 SU/ATS in two games at home and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road.

Cleveland posted 193 rushing yards, 337 passing yards and 22 first downs with no fumbles lost and just one interception. The lack of turnovers was key in their road win, and they at least cut their penalties down to a manageable six for 41 yards. Cleveland's red-zone efficiency was a solid 4-for-5, something they could have used more help with against the Rams last Sunday night.

Ram It

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled up a franchise-record 55 points in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs (ML +375). The Bucs offense has improved every week, scoring 17 points in Week 1, 20 points in Week 2, 31 points in Week 3 and 55 points in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they'll need to figure out their defensive problems if they wish to continue winning. They're allowing 29.3 PPG through four outings, including at least 31 points in three of the four contests.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' will outperform the 'over' in Week 4, regardless of what happens in the Monday Night Football contest.

The highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Detroit Lions (54.5) lived up to the hype, as the Chiefs outlasted the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field, as the Chiefs dealt the Lions their first straight-up loss of the season. It was amazing that the 'over' connected considering that QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw or run for a touchdown in the game. The second-highest total on the board, the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (49) saw a scoreless third quarter keep the lid on the scoring, ending up going under by 12 points. The two games at 48 or 48.5, the Bucs-Rams (48.5) and Washington Redskins-New York Giants (48) were completely different results. The 'Skins mustered just three points in a 24-3 loss, while the Bucs-Rams saw 95 total points, easily the highest scoring game of the 2019 season. It was the highest-scoring game in the NFL since 105 points were put up in the Chiefs-Rams game on Nov. 19, 2018.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Denver Broncos (37) game, which was a very entertaining affair. QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 26-24 comeback win, including 20 points in the second half. The other game with a total in the 30's, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (38) game, ended up with a just 22 points, and the Bears nearly pitched the shutout until the Vikings scored in the final few minutes to make it 16-6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 4, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5) still pending. The 'over' is 3-9 (25.0%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 for Sunday Night Football this season.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) suffered a left shoulder injury early in the game vs. the Vikings, so it was the QB Chase Daniel show to close out the win.

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots, and the Bills suffered their first setback of the season as a result.

-- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (head) attempted to hurdle a defender, had his legs taken out, and he banged his head on the turf. Perhaps that will be the end of that move. Maybe not.

Looking Ahead

-- The Rams and Seahawks will square off on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. The Rams have posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four road outings, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. However, they're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on TNF. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have posted an impressive 7-0-2 ATS mark in their past nine showings on Thursday, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Seattle looks even more impressive when you consider they're 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles in the Pacific Northwest.

-- The Buccaneers and Saints will lock horns in the Big Easy on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Bucs won outright and covered in their first road game Sunday in L.A., and they're now 4-0-1 ATS in the past five on the road. The Saints edged the Cowboys 12-10 on Sunday night in a low-scoring affair, but they still got it done and are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games since QB Drew Brees (thumb) went down. QB Teddy Bridgewater is doing enough to get it done. The 'under' has hit in 15 of the past 21 meetings in this series, so perhaps the Saints D, which cooled off the Cowboys, can hold down the Bucs.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will tangle in the Steel City. After Baltimore's straight-up loss at home to the Browns, they're now 0-5 ATS in the past five inside the division. They look to snap that in Pittsburgh, as they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series. The 'over' is 13-6-2 ATS in the past 21 meetings in Pittsburgh, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers will square off in L.A., as Denver finally looks to get it right. They're 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, including a pair of narrow losses at home on last-second field goals. The Broncos vaunted D hasn't shown up, allowing 23.4 PPG through four outings so far. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their past three outings, too. The under is also 6-0 in the past six battles in Southern California in this series, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall.

-- The Browns won their first appearance on Monday night against the Jets back in Week 2, now they get another shot under the lights in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye, so they'll be fairly healthy and well-rested, and they get an extra day with the MNF game. That's the first-place 49ers against the first-place Browns. Is this an alternate universe? The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road, while the 49ers are 26-7 ATS in the past 33 on MNF. Something's gotta give. Well, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a bye.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Bengals at Steelers
September 30, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Bengals at Steelers (-3.5, 45), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

I’ve long been of the belief that there’s no such thing as a true must-win in the NFL but admit that a division game where the loser falls to 0-4 is a pretty good argument against that. If you’re going to try and sell your team on turning things around in October after a slow start, that will be a lot easier to do for the winning coach come Tuesday than it will for whoever comes up short.

Only one team has made the playoffs after starting a season 0-4 over the past 40 years, and players are aware that a winless first month is tough to come back from.

Betting trends suggest the Steelers were overvalued at home despite starting a backup quarterback when this number came out, so Andy Dalton and a Bengals team that has won only once in 11 games has a lot of support as they look to try and hand Pittsburgh (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) only its second 0-4 start since 2013. To do so, the Bengals will have to snap an eight-game losing streak at the hands of the Steelers dating back to '16. New head coach Zac Taylor has had a tough time getting his offense on track, compromised by A.J. Green’s continued absence as he looks to return from an ankle injury sometime later this month.

Cincinnati (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) hasn’t scored more than 20 points yet despite Taylor’s desire to speed up tempo, putting together its best game when Dalton threw for 418 yards in a 21-20 loss in Seattle. He’s since been picked off three times and struggled with consistency in losses to the 49ers and Bills. The Steelers have lost to Seattle and San Francisco too. They’ve been encouraged by Mason Rudolph’s first outings in relief of Ben Roethlisberger, who will miss the remainder of the season after suffering an elbow injury in Week 2.

Rudolph has thrown for a pair of scores and been picked off once in each of his games this week and now makes his first home start in a crucial contest. There have been a number of guys pressed into duty in relief of Roethlisberger over the past 16 years, but none will get the extended look Rudolph is expected to receive if he can stay healthy. The 2018 third-round pick has looked promising in the preseason and is really the only chance they Steelers have of salvaging this season since they parted ways with Joshua Dobbs and list unproven rookie Devlin Hodges as the backup.

Running back James Conner hasn’t been able to get on track as Pittsburgh is averaging just 64 yards per game on the ground, so the Bengals will probably prioritize keeping him in check, which should create opportunities for Rudolph to make plays while avoiding mistakes given the blitzes and varied looks he should expect to see.

Rudolph is hoping to establish more of a connection with new No. 1 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has yet to break out with 100-yard output through the first three games in attempting to replace Antonio Brown. He did haul in a grab that he took 79 yards against the 49ers last Sunday but only caught two other balls for just five yards. Getting him going should be a priority. Rudolph probably won’t have favorite target Vance McDonald available. More on that in the injury report below. He does have college teammate James Washington on board in addition to veteran Donte Moncrief, rookie Diontae Johnson, so the receiving pieces are there for Pittsburgh to test a secondary that has allowed six touchdown passes through the first three games.

Pittsburgh has surrendered seven, done in by Tom Brady and Russell Wilson for three apiece. Last week’s loss in Santa Clara featured the defense finally showing a little backbone against Jimmy Garoppolo, which included picking off twice as new arrival Minkah Fitzpatrick paid immediate dividends in upgrading the secondary. There’s hope that the team’s familiarity with Dalton’s tendencies and the upgrade of adding Fitzpatrick to try and handle elite slot receivers like Tyler Boyd will help the defense build some momentum after looking like scrimmage partners over the first two weeks.

Dalton will look to utilize the speed of Joe Ross and the elusiveness of Boyd to his advantage when not handing it to Joe Mixon, but not having Green to help stretch the field puts extra pressure on him to be perfect with a lot on his plate considering the Bengals haven’t really bothered establishing the run. The beginning of this game is going to be crucial to the total since a slow start is a very good possibility given the uncertainty involved on both ends with Rudolph making his first start and Cincinnati likely trying to establish Mixon early while keeping things simple for an offensive line that has really struggled to block. While both teams are capable of hitting home runs with deep threats, I’d recommend the first-quarter under, which is widely available at 7.5.

For a look at a player prop involving Smith-Schuster, checkout VI’s Weekly NFL Free picks .

Both teams woke up to rain all day and can expect to see afternoon thunderstorms but the forecast indicates we’ll have clear weather once kickoff rolls around. Temperatures will be in the low 70s and there will be minimal wind, so once the kid gloves come off early, we could see points that will make a run at the closing total. A second-half ‘over’ play could be a natural fit if both offenses have shown signs of life in the opening 30 minutes and the rain has stayed away.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"Sharps absolutely love the Bengals and the ‘over’," said Berg, whose entertaining observations can be found on Twitter (@percentberg). "Unfortunately for everyone that wants to ride with them, those numbers are long gone. The game opened with the Bengals at 4.5 and 43.5."

Cincinnati Bengals
Projected season win total: 6 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 16/1 to 50/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 100/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 200/1 to 1000/1

Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected season win total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 13/10 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 18/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Steelers came into the season with plenty of respect, so those who backed the Black-and-Gold to outperform some futures are currently holding tickets with odds that are nowhere near as lucrative as currently available. The loss of Roethlisberger and an 0-3 start have thrust the Ravens and Browns to the front of the division and makes it unlikely that Pittsburgh will be able to overcome its slow start behind the inexperienced Rudolph. If you’re a true believer, the payoff is enticing. I’d imagine that there will be a few among the stubborn Steelers’ faithful willing to double down at these odds. They won’t be better next week if they take care of business and won’t be realistic if they end up 0-4 so now is the time to act if you think the Steelers have simply had a rough start.

The Bengals were expected to bring up the rear and are playing their role, struggling under a first-time head coach while missing its top receiver. There’s no reason to get in on any of their futures even if you’re of the belief they’ll pull off a Monday night upset.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Steelers were installed as a 3.5-point favorite when the Westgate’s early numbers were announced, opened the week as a 4.5-point 'chalk' throughout most shops and was bet down to 3 points on Sunday before rising up to 3.5 at many books. Look for that dance between 3 and 4 points to play out until kickoff but it’s hard to see significant action coming in.

The money line opened at Pittsburgh-200 at Caesars and has since dipped to -170. If you're in on the underdog Bengals to pick up their first victory, they've moved from +175 to +155.

INJURY CONCERNS

Carl Lawson will again be missing from the Bengals’ defense due to a hamstring issue, while DE Kerry Wynn remains out with a concussion and DT Ryan Glasgow won’t get back from a thigh injury. Defensive ends Carlos Dunlap and Sam Hubbard should play, as will corner B.W. Webb.

Cincinnati is still without Green and key offensive tackle Cordy Glenn, but will have tackle Andre Smith and guard Michael Jordan available up front.

Pittsburgh is expected to be missing McDonald due to a shoulder injury, so newly acquired TE Nick Vannett and rookie Zach Gentry will be pressed into duty. Fullback Roosevelt Nix remains out with a knee injury, which means that the running game could again struggle to get going. The Steelers will be missing linebackers Anthony Chickillo and Vince Williams but should have corner Joe Haden available. Mark Barron should play despite not practicing and LB Jayrone Elliott is questionable due to a hamstring.

RECENT MEETINGS (Steelers 11-1, 8-4 ATS last 12; UNDER 7-5)

12/30/18 Steelers 16-13 at Bengals (CIN +14, 45)
10/14/18 Steelers 28-21 at Bengals (PITT +1.5, 49.5)
12/4/17 Steelers 23-20 at Bengals (CIN +4.5, 42.5)
10/22/17 Steelers 29-14 vs. Bengals (PITT -4, 40)
12/18/16 Steelers 24-20 at Bengals (PITT -3, 45.5)
9/18/16 Steelers 24-16 at Bengals (PITT -3, 48)
1/9/16 Steelers 18-16 vs. Bengals (CIN +3, 45)
12/13/15 Steelers 33-20 at Bengals (PITT +2.5, 50)
11/1/15 Bengals 16-10 vs. Steelers (CIN +1, 48.5)
12/28/14 Steelers 27-17 at Bengals (PITT -3.5, 48)
12/7/14 Steelers 42-21 at Bengals (PITT +3, 47.5)
12/15/13 Steelers 30-20 vs. Bengals (PITT +1.5, 44.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 5 currently has the Steelers as a 3-point home underdog against the Ravens. The Bengals are listed as a 4-point favorite against the Kyler Murray-led Cardinals, who have yet to win a game this season.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CIN at PIT 08:15 PM

PIT -3.5

U 45.5

[StarDust Bum]

Steelers break out of funk, stomp Bengals 27-3
September 30, 2019
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PITTSBURGH (AP) Different quarterback. Same result.

Mason Rudolph threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns to pick up his first victory while filling in for Ben Roethlisberger as the Pittsburgh Steelers easily handled the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3 on Monday night.

Rudolph completed 24 of 28 passes, most of them quick hitters that allowed the Steelers to control the clock. He connected with James Conner on a delayed screen for a 21-yard touchdown in the second quarter, then broke the game open with a 43-yard heave to rookie Diontae Johnson midway through the third as the Steelers (1-3) won their ninth straight over the Bengals (0-4).

Jaylen Samuels ran for 26 yards and a touchdown, caught eight passes for 57 yards and was even credited with three completions - in reality ''pop'' passes to teammates in motion that traveled all of three feet - while working out of the Wildcat formation as Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner opened up his playbook to help the Steelers avoid just their second 0-4 start in 51 years.

Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor became the second first-year coach to drop his first four games with the Bengals. Sam Wyche started 0-5 in 1984 but helped his team rebound to an 8-8 finish. Taylor's task of getting Cincinnati back to respectability will be far harder if he can't figure out a way to protect quarterback Andy Dalton.

Dalton spent a significant portion of the night under heavy duress. The Steelers sacked him eight times, picked him off once and forced a second-quarter fumble that halted a second-quarter drive in Pittsburgh territory when the game was still in doubt. Dalton finished 21 of 37 for 171 yards. Tyler Boyd, elevated to the No. 1 receiver while A.J. Green recovers from ankle surgery, was held to three receptions for 33 yards on the same field where he starred in college at Pitt.

Rudolph set records at Oklahoma State by stretching the field while running Mike Gundy's ''air raid'' offense. He was uneven at best in his first career start last week in San Francisco after being thrust into the gig for the rest of the season while Roethlisberger rehabs a right elbow issue that required season-ending surgery. He was considerably sharper against Cincinnati, though he wasn't asked to do much other than find the closest open man -usually Conner or Samuels - and keep the sticks moving.

Conner and Samuels touched the ball on all five snaps of a second-quarter drive that ended with Conner taking a flip from Rudolph and knifing his way into the end zone to give the Steelers a 7-3 lead. They touched it four times on an eight-play drive to start the third quarter, the final snap turning into a 2-yard touchdown run by Samuels after he lined up in the shotgun.

Two Dalton incompletions sandwiched around a sack forced Cincinnati to punt. Kevin Huber's shank set Pittsburgh up at the Cincinnati 43 and on second down Rudolph finally went deep, lofting the ball to a wide-open Johnson, who caught it at the Cincinnati 5 and walked into the end zone for his second touchdown in two weeks to give the Steelers a 24-3 lead.

INJURIES

Bengals: WR John Ross III left in the third quarter with a right-shoulder injury. ... LT Cordy Glenn missed his fourth straight game while recovering from a concussion and Cincinnati's protection problems continued. The Bengals have now surrendered 19 sacks through four games.

Steelers: TE Vance McDonald sat out with a right shoulder injury. Nick Vannett, acquired in a trade with Seattle last week, started and caught two passes for 28 yards. ... DE Cam Heyward dealt with a thigh injury that left him limping off the field at times, though he still managed his first sack of the season.

UP NEXT

Bengals: Host Arizona next Sunday. The Cardinals won the last meeting, 34-31, in 2015.

Steelers: Welcome AFC North rival Baltimore to Pittsburgh on Sunday. The teams split the season series last year, both winning at home.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 5

Thursday, October 3, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, October 6, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Houston Texans
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings New York Giants
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Oakland Raiders
1:00 PM New York Jets Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM New England Patriots Washington Redskins
4:05 PM Denver Broncos Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM Indianapolis Colts Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, October 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cleveland Browns San Francisco 49ers


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NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............63-55-1.......... 53.38%............ +12.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................26 - 27............-13.00.............29 - 22 ...........+24.00............+11.00