Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
September 21, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0 ATS (10.85 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 off a game as a dog where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-15.05 ppg) since Oct 29, 2015 as a road dog when they allowed at least 22 first downs last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Falcons are 0-7-1 OU (-6.25 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 as a dog coming off a game where Matt Ryan threw at least 2 interceptions.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by at least 25 points in each of the past two games are 26-42-1 ATS. Active against New England.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 10-0 OU (9.25 ppg) since Dec 24, 2006 and as a dog coming off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-11-1 OU (-4.88 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Falcons are 18-0 ATS (+9.78 ppg) on the road and vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed fewer than 254 total yards in their last game and has less than 14 days rest.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 3
September 20, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Six new quarterbacks make starts this week that didn’t begin their games last week and the bookmakers have had to make adjustments on the fly of what the value of the starter is to the number relative to the back-up while also putting a price on public perception into the mix.

“We didn’t do too much with the Giants QB change,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTamasso of their ratings. They went with the market going from the Buccaneers -4.5 to -6.5. “We did see some movement on the under going from 48.5 to 47.5.

“Eli (Manning) wasn’t doing anything for the offense so I think the move was good. Daniel Jones showed well in preseason.”

Jones did look very good in preseason and most figured this day was coming, but maybe not this quick. Manning’s poor play made the move justified.

“With news of Cam Newton being doubtful we moved the Panthers from -3 to the Cardinals being -1.5,” said DiTamasso. “We thought that was a good enough adjustment with Kyle Allen starting and we got pushed to -2, but it looks like it’s going to come back down.”

Bet and Collete Podcast Newton’s foot is the reason he’s sitting out, but if watching his last game in a home loss to the Buccaneers it appeared his shoulder that was repaired in the offseason was the main reason for him being so inaccurate.

Kyle Allen is in his second year with the Panthers and he looked decent in a Week 17 start last season at New Orleans, a 33-14 win with Drew Brees resting for the Saints.

Teddy Bridgewater started that game for the Saints and he’ll also be starting this week at Seattle for an injured Brees, who figures to be out the next six weeks.

“We’re going to need Bridgewater to play well because the Seahawks have become our biggest parlay game so far,” DiTamasso said. “I wasn’t too impressed with his play at Minnesota when he started and he didn’t do too much last week, either.”

CG books have the Seahawks -4.5 while most of the others in Las Vegas are solid -4’s

The Steelers will also be with their QB and they’ll be without him all season. Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) has the largest impact to the number among all six of the new starting QB’s this week.

“There’s a big adjustment, maybe 7 to 8-points, from Big Ben to Mason Rudolph,” DiTamasso said. “We were thinking Steelers -1 before he got hurt.”

The 49ers opened the season with two road wins and they’re a 6.5-point favorite for their home opener.

CG books opened Week 3 numbers Sunday with the Patriots being -16.5 and were bet up to -18. After New York Jets back-up QB Trevor Siemian got knocked out for the season with an ankle injury Monday night, third-stringer Luke Falk gets to make his first career start at New England with first-stringer Sam Darnold still 'out' with mono. The Patriots are now -22.5.

“We got some sharp play on the Jets at +23 so we know that’s the number that is seen as attractive if we get to high with Patriots money,” DiTamasso said.

The other new QB starting this week is Josh Rosen. The former UCLA player is getting the nod for the Dolphins, who are looking to shake things up. CG books have gone up from the Cowboys as 21-point home favorites to -23, but it’s not about Rosen, it’s about trying to find bettors willing to take the Dolphins and no one is biting, in the same manner, they are with the Jets.

The top sharp plays at CG books this week has been the Ravens at +6.5 and +6 for their huge AFC game at Kansas City. DiTamasso has the Chiefs at -5.5 but says he expects it to move back soon because the Chiefs are always an attractive play with the public.

“They’ve also bet the Texans with us at +3.5 (at Chargers), the Jets, and the Falcons at +2.5 and +2,” DiTamasso said.

CG books top-weighted parlays games are the Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers and Eagles.

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said their top sharp bets this week has been the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers and their top public parlay games are the Patriots, Rams, and Cowboys.

The Rams play at Cleveland Sunday night and it’s likely to have the most impact on every book’s results as risk from all the earlier games pile on. CG is currently sitting Rams -3 (-120) like most books in Las Vegas while Stations is at -3.5 (EVEN) for the finale.

[Udog]

NFL Sunday odds and line moves: Public abandons Browns, hitches wagon to Rams
Patrick Everson

Coach Sean McVay and the Rams are out to a 2-0 SU and ATS start heading into a Sunday night road tilt against Cleveland. Los Angeles opened -3 and were bet up to -3.5 against the Browns.

NFL Week 3 includes a clash between the reigning NFC champion and the most-hyped team from the offseason, under the Sunday night lights. Covers checks in on that matchup and three others, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns – Open: +3; Move: +3.5

Cleveland got a lot of offseason run from the media and at the betting window, with its acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr. and more, but hasn’t looked particularly good through two weeks. After getting ripped by Tennessee in Week 1, the Browns (1-1 SU and ATS) beat the Jets 23-3 as 6.5-point road favorites in the Week 2 Monday nighter.

Los Angeles is out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS in defense of its NFC crown. The Rams knocked New Orleans’ Drew Brees out of the game early with a thumb injury and went on to a 27-9 Week 2 victory as 2-point home faves.

“I’m pretty sure that’s gonna be the biggest need of the day, on Cleveland,” Shelton said of an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. “The ticket count is almost laughable, over 1,000 pointspread tickets on the Rams, around 100 on the Browns. And the money is even worse, almost 20/1. The public has completely abandoned the Browns.

“We’re already a six-figure loser to the Rams. I can’t even fathom what it’ll be like at 5 p.m. (Pacific). The Rams are probably the last piece of the puzzle for a lot of people with parlays.”

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5

Kansas City reached the AFC Championship Game last season and looks very much the part of a Super Bowl contender thus far this season. The Chiefs (2-0 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 28-10 laying 7 points on the road last week.

Baltimore also won its first two games, but got a surprisingly tough test in Week 2. The Ravens (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off Arizona for a 23-17 victory giving 13 points at home.

“Not a big decision,” Shelton said of a 1 p.m. ET start. “Ticket count is roughly 4/1 on the Chiefs, but there’s actually more money on the Ravens.”

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -21; Move: -21.5; Move: -22; Move: -23

After two weeks of misery in Miami, sportsbooks far and wide posted proposition bets on whether the Dolphins will go 0-16. Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) have been outscored 102-10 thus far, including a 43-0 shutout as an 18-point home ‘dog to New England last week.

On the flip side, Dallas is off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start heading into this 1 p.m. ET nonconference contest. The Cowboys started slowly at Washington last week, but ultimately nabbed a 31-21 victory as 6-point road faves.

“Pretty much all Cowboys, money and tickets,” Shelton said. “We need the Dolphins.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -7; Move: -6.5

Pittsburgh is still seeking its first win, and it lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season with an elbow injury in Week 2. In that contest, the Steelers (0-2 SU and ATS) fell short to Seattle 28-26 as 4-point home favorites.

San Francisco is 2-0 SU and ATS after a pair of relatively easy victories. The 49ers went to Cincinnati as 1-point pups last week and rolled to a 41-17 victory.

Mason Rudolph is now at the helm for Pittsburgh, and interestingly enough, bettors at The Mirage and other MGM books are buying the Steelers in this 4:25 p.m. ET matchup.

“Right now, we’re gonna need the Niners,” Shelton said. “Pointspread ticket count is 3/1 on the 49ers, but there’s more money on Pittsburgh.”

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


NO SONY OF MINE

Through 36 rushes, New England Patriots running back Sony Michel has forced zero missed tackles. His 2.96 yards per carry has him ranked between Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson. Heading into the 2019 season, Michel’s injury history was well documented as he has a durability rating of 1 on Sports Injury Predictor, with 1 being the least durable. These injuries may be playing a big factor behind the lack of burst and elusiveness.

Michel and the Pats will host the New York Jets on Sunday as 21.5-point favorites. The Jets are in the middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed and rank 11th in DVOA rush defense. With the back’s total rushing yards at 83.5, we feel that too many things have to go right for him to top that number, especially since he is averaging just 1.69 yards after contact. Take Sony’s Under 83.5 rushing yards.


FALK THE PLANK

The fade train continues as we turn our shading onto the worst starting quarterback in the league. This lucky signal-caller is playing on the road versus the best football dynasty in history that is currently sporting the league’s best defense.

New York Jets third-stringer turned starter Luke Falk is in for a world of hurt on Sunday versus New England’s No. 1 defense. Last week Falk “led” the Jets’ offense to three three-and-outs, a fumble and two turnover on downs. This week Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will have had six days to game plan against him. There is a reason that the Pats are 21.5-point favorites. Take the Under 0.5 TD passes from Falk (-103).


COOK THE BOOKS

In Week 1, as the favorite and at home, the Minnesota Vikings ran the ball 38 times and passed just nine times. On Sunday, the Vikes will host the Oakland Raiders as 9-point favorites and may use Week 1’s game plan as quarterback Kirk Cousins is in, or near, the bottom of most QB statistical leader boards. This will benefit running back Dalvin Cook the most as the RB saw 21 carries which he turned into 111 yards and two rushing TDs in Week 1’s win over the Atlanta Falcons.

The Raiders are allowing just 2.8 yards to opposing running backs and have yet to allow a rushing TD, but things will change on Sunday as Minnesota will lean on Cook as Cousin struggles. Take Cook’s Over 0.5 rushing TDs for plus money (+118).


MURRAY-UP OFFENSE

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is +180 to win the offensive rookie of the year after opening at +200. Since the beginning of the year, the No. 1 pick has become only the second player in NFL history to throw for 300 yards in his first two games. Aiding the 22-year-old QB is the fact that the Cardinals have run 91-of-136 offensive plays with four or more receivers. The other 31 NFL teams combined have just 60. The Air-Raid Offense is real.

Murray will square off with the Cam-Newtonless Carolina Panthers whose defense held Jameis Winston to 208 yards last week and Jared Goff to 186 yards in Week 1. Seems like a legit passing defense but Winston and Goff are ranked 27th and 28th, respectively in QBR and the Panthers rank 18th in DVOA passing defense. We are putting our bucks on Murray’s Over 261.5 passing yards.


WAVERING WENTZ WILL WANE

In Week 2, the Philadelphia Eagles lost a ton of players due to injury, including receiver DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Jackson will miss Sunday’s matchup versus the Detroit Lions while Jeffrey is questionable but may suit up. Quarterback Carson Wentz has looked awful in the first half of each game this year as the Eagles have been outscored 30-16.

Wentz has gone 21-for-38 (55 percent) and thrown for 189 yards with one score and two INTs in the first half this year. Outside of a 51-yard touchdown in Week 1, Wentz’s longest completion in the first 30 minutes has gone for 12 yards. Wentz is playing with fire starting so slowly and may have some lingering effects from last week’s rib-crushing hit while also having to play with a decimated offense.

We are fading Wentz and the Eagles against a tough Lions passing D that sit No. 5 in completion percentage against and allowing a QB rating of 74.4. Smash the Under Eagles team total 26.5 and if you want to double down, take Under Wentz’s 285.5 passing yards.

[Udog]

Sunday's Week 3 Essentials
Tony Mejia

Broncos at Packers (-7 /42.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Vic Fangio came up on the wrong side of a Bears field goal again last week. The former Chicago defensive coordinator who lost his shot an NFC divisional playoff when Cody Parkey missed is 0-2 as a head coach in Denver due to replacement Eddy Pineiro hitting the biggest field goal of his life. Sometimes it’s not your year. Fangio has seen his defense play well enough to win but the Joe Flacco-led offense has averaged 15 points. Making matters worse is that 21 of their 30 points on the season have come in the fourth quarter when playing from behind. They’ve scored no touchdowns in the first three quarters of their opening two games despite Flacco firing off 81 passes. Flacco has demonstrated some chemistry with veteran Emmanuel Sanders and has looked for the dynamic Courtland Sutton but now faces a Green Bay secondary that has excelled in wins over division rivals Chicago and Minnesota, giving up 9.5 points behind new coordinator Mike Pettine.

Aaron Rodgers is feeling much healthier this season, so this should also be a great test for the Broncos’ defense. Ironically, it was Khalil Mack, at the helm of Fangio’s Bears defense, who hurt Rodgers last September, so he’ll need to be wary of the likes of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. He’s 4-1 against Fangio defenses over the past three seasons, throwing 10 TDs and just one INT despite coming up empty in a 24-17 loss when he last saw him on Dec. 16. Denver’s defense will be missing LB Joe Jones but otherwise should be at full strength to try and keep Rodgers from finding a rhythm. Green Bay is just 7-6-1 straight up at Lambeau Field over its last 14 home games, so it will be looking to re-establish that edge as it plays the second game of a four-game stretch of home games over a five-week span. Rookie head coach Matt LaFleur and his new offense has only averaged 15.5 points but he’s got a great shot at a fantastic start if Rodgers remains upright and his defense continues to dominate. Rain is expected to factor in all day in Green Bay, where thunderstorms could roll in as the game unfolds.

Lions at Eagles (-5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Eagles were sabotaged by injuries in Atlanta last weekend and were still just a half-yard away from being in position to rally past the Falcons despite the absence of Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert and star TE Zach Ertz, who got banged up despite staying in on the final drive as he wound up participating in every snap. Carson Wentz played poorly in the first half and couldn’t rescue the result, which dropped Philly to 1-1 for the third straight season. Doug Pederson is 3-0 in Week 3 since taking over in ’16 but has won tight home games that hung in the balance until the game’s final play and resulted in failed covers each of the past two years. Jeffery is unlikely to play due to a calf injury, although he may warm up and try to gut it out if he loosens up enough. Jackson has already been ruled out, but the team is hopeful Goedert can play and will have to ride with Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins and rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside as the main receivers against an underrated Lions secondary .

Detroit held the visiting Chargers to just 10 points and has been largely dominant on the defensive end with the exception of getting carved up by Kyler Murray in the fourth quarter of their Week 1 tie at Arizona. The Lions allowed 21 points in down the stretch in Glendale and have surrendered 16 points over the other seven quarters. They could get a boost with top LB Jarrad Davis making his debut, so Wentz and Philly may have their hands full moving the ball effectively if Jeffery remains out. Nelson Agholor could get a boost in targets but has remained hit-or-miss due to drops and would have to see more of Darius Slay if he’s the No. 1. Detroit has won three of the past four meetings between these teams, beating former head coach Jim Schwartz in his first season as Eagles coordinator 24-23 behind three Matthew Stafford TD passes.

Ravens at Chiefs (-5.5/52), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Lamar Jackson’s great start passing the ball sets up this beauty of a matchup against Patrick Mahomes in a battle of two of the NFL’s four highest-scoring teams through two games. Kansas City (34.0) actually ranks No. 4 with everyone looking up at Baltimore and its gaudy 41-point average, but there’s no question most have taken a wait-and-see approach with Jackson since he’s torched the hopeless Dolphins and a young Cardinals team missing Patrick Peterson. The Chiefs aren’t the ’85 Bears on the defensive end, but did blank the Raiders over the final three quarters last week and have added pieces like Frank Clark, Darron Lee and Tyrann Mathieu who still haven’t gotten comfortable. If Jackson is able to light up the Chiefs on the road and we get a full blown circus of a shootout at Arrowhead today, it would be hard to deny the Ravens’ quarterback’s emergence. Top RB Mark Ingram (kidney) and productive tight end Mark Andrews (foot), who has emerged as Jackson’s favorite target, have been cleared to play. Corner Jimmy Smith and safety Brynden Trawick are out.

Mahomes should continue to thrive despite the absence of Tyreek Hill given how nicely he’s spread the ball around, but the protection left tackle Eric Fisher provides should be tougher to replace since he’ll be out of the lineup for an extended period due to core surgery. Cam Erving took over for most of last week’s win against Oakland but the veteran interior lineman isn’t as mobile. RB LeSean McCoy is expected to have a heightened role with Damien Williams out, so he could be in for a breakout game after practicing in full coming off an ankle issue. Early thunderstorms are expected in Kansas City, so check the forecast to see whether the weather is clearing up since that could potentially rain out plans for that aforementioned shootout.

Bengals at Bills (-6/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Bengals had a rough home opener in losing to San Francisco 41-17 and will be on the road in Buffalo and Pittsburgh the next few weeks, so first-year head coach Zac Taylor is hoping to stop the bleeding. Right tackle Cordy Glenn remains out with a concussion and LT Andre Smith and LG Michael Jordan have both been deemed questionable, with Jordan unlikely to start even if he can go. Cincinnati’s issues up front have impacted Joe Mixon and Andy Dalton as life without A.J. Green continues, so the Bills should have an opportunity to get after an offense again after really clamping down in wins over the Giants and Jets.

Impressive rookie RB Devin Singletary is out with an injured hamstring, but Frank Gore is healthy and running as hard as ever, so he and veteran T.J. Yeldon will be tasked with keeping QB Josh Allen in manageable drives. The raw second-year Bills quarterback managed to avoid being picked off last week and has a TD pass and a TD run in three straight games dating back to last season. The Bengals aren’t going to have DE Carl Lawson to help chase Allen down and a new linebacker corps has really struggled thus far. Buffalo is looking for its first 3-0 start since 2011 and hasn’t been this heavy a favorite since beating the Jets 21-12 to cover as a 7-point ‘chalk’ in 2017. The Bills closed last season by blowing out the Dolphins as a 5.5-point favorite in their last regular-season game at New Era Field.

Falcons at Colts (-1.5/47), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Colts may have WR T.Y. Hilton (quad) and RB Marlon Mack (calf) in the lineup, but both will be game-time decisions and haven’t had much practice time this week. Top linebacker Darius Leonard has already been ruled out due to a concussion, so backups are going to have to emerge at home to keep Indy from losing this home opener as the post-Andrew Luck era officially begins. Jacoby Brissett threw three touchdown passes to help beat the Titans in Nashville last weekend but needs a full complement of weapons to try and hang with Matt Ryan and a healthy Falcons offense.

Surviving Philly’s frantic comeback bid on Sunday night really took some of the pressure off Dan Quinn and Dirk Koetter, and they can suddenly start thinking about getting the team headed in the right direction with the division up for grabs given the injuries to Drew Brees and Cam Newton. DT Ra’Shede Hageman is back, adding to Atlanta’s depth up front as they look to keep the Colts rom establishing the run in the manner they have thus far. Indianapolis has won 14 of 16 meetings against the Falcons but lost the last time they hosted a game in this series, falling 31-7 in 2011. Matt Hasselbeck helped beat Ryan when these teams last met in ‘15.

Raiders at Vikings (-9/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Jon Gruden’s young Raiders hit the road for the first time after splitting their first two divisional games against the Broncos and Chiefs and come in a little banged up. LB Vontaze Burfict injured an ankle against Kansas City last week and could be limited. Safety Lamarcus Joyner is nursing an injured groin, so an already thin secondary could struggle against the Vikings weapons, particularly if Burfict isn’t able to make the calls and get everyone working together. Offensively, Oakland does get back suspended guard Ritchie Incognito to try and get rookie Josh Jacobs going again after an illness and multiple lower body injuries.

The Vikings are expected to get CB Mike Hughes back, which should soften the blow of Mackensie Alexander being ruled out with an elbow injury. Linebacker Anthony Barr is likely a go as well, so the Vikings will try and rattle Derek Carr. After a great run on the road in 2016, Carr has thrown 15 interceptions and just 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons and doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver, relying mostly on lanky tight end Darren Waller as a security blanket. The Raiders have won 10 of 14 in the series but haven’t won in Minnesota since ’07 and lost the last meeting at home back in ’15 as Carr was picked off twice and then-Viking Adrian Peterson ran for over 200 yards.

Jets at Patriots (-21.5/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The number has swung back in the Jets’ direction after Antonio Brown’s release on Friday. After peaking in the 23/23.5-point range depending on the book, most have settled back at 21 points in this battle between divisional rivals. The Patriots will start Tom Brady and New York will send Luke Falk out there since starter Sam Darnold is out with mono and backup Trevor Siemian broke his ankle on Monday night. Defensive standouts Quinnen Williams, CJ Mosley and Jordan Jenkins have been ruled out and safety Jamal Adams unfollowed the team on social media after being unhappy with being benched for aggressive play. Offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele, Brian Winters and Kelvin Meachum all are banged up and the Jets will hit Foxboro off a short week. Although Adam Gase is plenty familiar with New England, he’ll be putting together a gameplan under less than ideal conditions.

The Patriots have Philip Dorsett ready to step back up in the role he was filling before Brown came aboard and should continue getting strong play out of Josh Gordon. Left tackle Marshall Newhouse and right tackle Marcus Cannon are expected to start, so Brady and the offense should have all the time they need against a Jets defense that has worn down in giving up big plays in the passing game, which doesn’t bode well for the Jets snapping a six-game losing streak against the Pats, who have won 14 of the last 16 matchups.

Dolphins at Cowboys (-22/47), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With the Jets’ line dipping, the Dolphins again bear the brunt of being the week’s biggest underdog again. New England coasted to a cover of an 18-point spread with a 43-0 win, which means the Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 entering their first road game of the season. In order to inspire showing a little backbone, Brian Flores has named Josh Rosen the starting quarterback ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Safety Reshad Jones is out again, so a defense that traded away major pieces isn’t going to be able to slow a versatile Cowboys offense that has lit up the Giants and Redskins in ranking fifth with a 33-points per game clip.

The Cowboys do have some answers to come up with after losing WR Michael Gallup to a knee injury, but Devin Smith was able to fill in nicely against Washington and is an x-factor here. Dallas will wrap as the largest favorite since 2013 and has only won a game by enough points to cover this spread four times over the past four seasons.

Steelers at 49ers (-6.5/43.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: The Niners hope to open 3-0 for the first time since 1998, which makes them one of the NFL’s biggest surprises considering they’re favored to do so rather substantially here due to Ben Roethlisberger’s absence and picked up their first two victories on the road. No one is going to confuse the Bucs and Bengals with playoff-caliber teams, but the 49ers pulled away from both impressively, demonstrating an ability to create breakdowns on both sides of the ball. Last week’s rout of Cincinnati showcased depth since Jimmy Garoppolo rebounded from a rough first start by capitalizing on all the attention George Kittle received.

The Steelers are 0-2 after dropping games against the Patriots and Seahawks and will send Mason Rudolph out there for his first start. He threw for two scores and was intercepted once in a 28-26 loss to Seattle and will have to grow with Juju Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief and college teammate James Washington in what will likely turn into a rebuilding year if Rudolph can’t immediately produce a win that prevents an 0-3 start. RB James Conner will be out there to help ease everyone’s burden despite a knee injury that had his status in doubt earlier this week. Defensively, Pittsburgh will be without a pair of linebackers but will have safety Minkah Fitzgerald in the mix.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at DAL 01:00 PM
DAL -21.5
U 46.5

ATL at IND 01:00 PM
ATL +1.5
U 48.0

NYJ at NE 01:00 PM
NYJ +21.0
U 43.0

DEN at GB 01:00 PM
GB -7.5
U 42.0

DET at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI -4.0
O 45.0

BAL at KC 01:00 PM
BAL +5.0
U 52.0

CIN at BUF 01:00 PM
CIN +6.0
U 43.5

OAK at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -9.0
U 43.5

[StarDust Bum]

NYG at TB 04:05 PM
NYG +5.0
U 48.0

CAR at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI -2.5
U 45.0

HOU at LAC 04:25 PM
HOU +3.5
O 49.0

PIT at SF 04:25 PM
PIT +6.5

NO at SEA 04:25 PM
NO +5.0
O 44.0

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

LAR at CLE 08:20 PM

CLE +3.5

U 48.0

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 3
September 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Sept. 23

Chicago at Washington, 8:15 p.m. EDT. Mitchell Trubisky has won his past four road starts for the Bears (1-1), but the Chicago quarterback has struggled in the first two games while going 42 of 72 for 348 yards with an interception and no TDs. The Redskins (0-2) also have recent history on their side, having won the past seven meetings. Case Keenum is off to a solid start, throwing for 601 yards and five TDs with no INTs through his first two games.

---

STARS

Passing

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns and Kansas City held on for a 33-28 victory over Baltimore.

- Daniel Jones, Giants, threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first NFL start and also ran for two TDs, including the go-ahead score with 1:16 remaining, to help New York rally from an 18-point halftime deficit to beat Tampa Bay 32-31.

- Kyle Allen, Panthers, passed for 261 yards and four touchdowns in place of the injured Cam Newton in Carolina's 38-20 win over Arizona.

- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, threw two touchdown passes to Amari Cooper before running for another score, and Dallas cruised past Miami 31-6.

- Deshaun Watson, Texans, passed for 351 yards and hit Jordan Akins with two of his three touchdown tosses in Houston's 27-20 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

- Jacoby Brissett, Colts, went 28 of 37 for 310 yards and two TDs in Indianapolis' 27-24 win over Atlanta.

---

Rushing

- Mark Ingram, Ravens, ran for three touchdowns, finishing with 103 yards rushing on 16 carries, and caught four passes for 32 yards in a losing cause as Baltimore fell 33-28 at Kansas City.

- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, had 153 yards rushing, including a 76-yard touchdown, on 24 carries in Carolina's 38-20 win at Arizona.

- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, had 125 yards rushing on 19 attempts in Dallas' 31-6 win over Miami.

- Dalvin Cook, Vikings, had 16 carries for 110 yards and a score in just three quarters as Minnesota topped Oakland 34-14.

- Frank Gore, Bills, had two touchdown runs, including a go-ahead 1-yard score with 1:50 remaining, in Buffalo's 21-17 win over Cincinnati.

- Phillip Lindsay, Broncos, ran for two touchdowns in Denver's 27-16 loss at Green Bay.

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Receiving

- Mike Evans, Buccaneers, caught three touchdown passes and finished with eight receptions for 190 yards in a losing cause as Tampa Bay fell 32-31 to the New York Giants.

- Keenan Allen, Chargers, caught 13 passes for a career-high 183 yards and two touchdowns in Los Angeles' 27-20 loss to Houston.

- Darren Waller, Raiders, had 13 receptions for 134 yards in Oakland's 34-14 loss at Minnesota.

- Tyler Lockett, Seahawks, caught 11 passes for 154 yards and a score in Seattle's 33-27 loss to New Orleans.

- Julio Jones, Falcons, had 128 yards receiving and a touchdown on eight receptions in Atlanta's 27-24 loss at Indianapolis.

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Special Teams

- Jamal Agnew, Lions, returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown - the first in the NFL this season - to help Detroit edge Philadelphia 27-24.

- Deonte Harris, Saints, took a punt back 53 yards for a score in New Orleans' 33-27 win at Seattle.

- Malcolm Jenkins, Eagles, blocked Matt Prater's 46-yard field goal try in Philadelphia's 27-24 loss to Detroit.

- Arthur Maulet, Jets, recovered a muffed punt return by Gunner Olszewski in the end zone for a touchdown in New York's 30-14 loss at New England.

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Defense

- Shaquil Barrett, Buccaneers, had four of Tampa Bay's five sacks and forced a fumble in a 32-31 loss to the New York Giants.

- Preston Smith, Packers, matched a career high with three sacks in Green Bay's 27-16 victory over Denver.

- Tre'Davious White, Bills, sealed Buffalo's 21-17 win over Cincinnati with the second of his two interceptions - picking off Andy Dalton's tipped pass on third-and-5 from Buffalo's 28 with 12 seconds remaining.

- Vonn Bell, Saints, returned a fumble 33 yards for a touchdown in New Orleans' 33-27 win at Seattle.

- Jamal Adams, Jets, returned an interception thrown by Jarrett Stidham - who replaced Tom Brady for one series - 61 yards for a touchdown in New York's 30-14 loss at New England.

- Donte Jackson and Mario Addison, Panthers. Jackson had two interceptions and Addison three sacks in Carolina's 38-20 victory at Arizona.

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MILESTONES

With his touchdown throw to Phillip Dorsett in the first quarter of New England's 30-14 win over the New York Jets, Tom Brady passed Drew Brees for second place on the NFL's career list for touchdown passes. It was Brady's 523rd TD pass. Peyton Manning is first with 539. ... Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers tied Fran Tarkenton for the ninth-most touchdown passes in NFL history with 342. Next up for Rodgers is Eli Manning, who has 362. ... Kansas City coach Andy Reid won his 210th game, breaking a tie with Chuck Knoll for sixth-most in NFL history. ... Atlanta's Matt Ryan passed John Elway for ninth on the league's career completion list - he has 4,143 - and broke a tie with Elway for No. 11 on the career TD passes list - he has 303. ... Philip Rivers made his 209th consecutive start, tying Eli Manning for the second-longest streak in NFL history. Brett Favre started 297 straight, meaning the 37-year-old Rivers would have to play five more seasons after this one to catch him.

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STREAKS & STATS

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has 13 games of at least 300 yards passing, breaking Kurt Warner's mark for the most in the first 20 games of a career. ... The Chiefs have scored 26 or more points in an NFL-record 24 straight regular-season games. ... Denver fell to 0-6-1 all-time on the road against Green Bay. ... Miami has been outscored 133-16, the largest point differential through three games in league history since 1950. ... New England won its seventh straight over the New York Jets and earned its ninth consecutive regular-season win at home over its AFC East rival. ... Seattle's 33-27 loss to New Orleans was its first at home in the month of September under coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks had been 15-0 at home in September since 2010.

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STARTS

With a 21-17 victory over Cincinnati, Buffalo improved to 3-0 for the first time since 2011 and only the third time in 26 years. ... Bengals rookie coach Zac Taylor, who took over after Marvin Lewis was fired this offseason, became the fifth of Cincinnati's 10 coaches to open his first season 0-3, and third in a row. The worst start by a first-year Bengals coach was Sam Wyche, who lost his first five in 1984. ... The New York Jets are off to their first 0-3 start since 2003. ... Miami is 0-3 for the first time since losing its first seven in 2011. ... Dallas is 3-0 for the first time since 2008.

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TURNING IT AROUND

After missing the playoffs last season, Buffalo (3-0), Detroit (2-0-1), Green Bay (3-0) and San Francisco (3-0) are all off to undefeated starts. It marks the fourth time since 1990 - when the current playoff format began - that at least four teams have started the season without a loss in their first three games after missing the postseason the previous year. It also happened in the 2013, 2003 and 2002 seasons.

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DOMINANT D

With a 30-14 victory over the New York Jets, the New England Patriots became the first team in the Super Bowl era to not allow a rushing or passing touchdown in their first three games. The Patriots are also the first team to hold opponents scoreless in the first half of five consecutive games, including the postseason, the longest such streak in the Super Bowl era.

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MR. JONES

Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for two TDs, including the go-ahead score with 1:16 remaining as the New York Giants rallied from an 18-point halftime deficit to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32-31. Jones, making his first NFL start in place of benched two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning, also led the Giants with 28 yards rushing on four attempts. He is the first rookie with at least 300 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in a single game since 1970.

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PASSING PAT

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes threw for 374 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 132.0 rating in the Chiefs' 33-28 win over Baltimore. Through 20 NFL games, Mahomes has the highest marks in yards passing (6,576), TD passes (60) and passer rating (115.3) in NFL history. His 13 games of at least 300 yards top Kurt Warner's previous mark of 12 through a player's first 20 games. Mahomes is also the first player with at least 350 yards passing, three touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games in NFL history.

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YOUNG GUNS

Kyle Allen threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns in place of the injured Cam Newton, helping the Carolina Panthers beat the Arizona Cardinals 38-20. The 23-year-old Allen was outstanding in his second career start, making several big throws, finishing 19 of 26, including two touchdowns to Greg Olsen and one each to Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore. He outplayed Arizona's Kyler Murray, who was his former college teammate at Texas A&M. Murray was 30 of 43 for 173 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He also ran for 69 yards. But Murray was also sacked eight times.

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TOUCHDOWN TEDDY

Teddy Bridgewater threw two touchdown passes in his first start in place of Drew Brees, leading New Orleans past the Seattle Seahawks 33-27. Bridgewater threw a 29-yard touchdown to Alvin Kamara late in the first half on a screen pass where the talented running back bounced off several tacklers on his way to the end zone. He added a 1-yard TD toss to Michael Thomas on fourth-and-goal on the first possession of the second half, a drive kept alive by an illegal formation penalty against Seattle on a missed field goal attempt. It was Bridgewater's first win as a starting quarterback since Jan. 3, 2016, the final week of the 2015 season.

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SHAQ ATTAQ

Tampa Bay linebacker Shaquil Barrett had four sacks in the Buccaneers' 32-31 loss to the New York Giants. He has eight sacks in three games, tying the Jets' Mark Gastineau (1984) for the most in the first three games of a season since 1982 - when sacks became an official sack.

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IMMEDIATE IMPACT

Pittsburgh safety Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepted a pass in the first quarter of the Steelers' 24-20 loss at San Francisco and forced a fumble by Raheem Mostert in the red zone in the second quarter that Devin Bush recovered. Fitzpatrick, acquired from Miami this past week in a deal that sent a first-round pick to the Dolphins, became the first Steelers player with an interception and forced fumble in the opening half since James Harrison did it against the Chargers on Nov. 16, 2008.

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COOK-ING WITH GAS

Minnesota's Dalvin Cook ran for 110 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings' 34-14 win over Oakland, becoming the fifth player in NFL history with at least 110 yards rushing and a TD run in each of his team's first three games. Cook joins Jim Brown (1958), O.J. Simpson (1975), Emmitt Smith (1995) and Curtis Martin (2004).

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SIDELINED

Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman left the Patriots' win against the Jets with a chest injury. He caught a pass, fell on his right side and was sandwiched by Harvey Langi and Henry Anderson. Edelman got up holding his rib area. ... Giants running back Saquon Barkley left his team's 32-31 win over Tampa Bay with a right ankle injury late in the first half. He was seen on crutches and with a boot on the ankle afterward. ... Miami wide receiver Allen Hurns had to be taken off the field after a jarring play at Dallas, just as he did in the playoffs last season when he played for the Cowboys. Hurns stayed down for a couple of minutes after a huge hit from Dallas safety Jeff Heath that resulted in an incompletion. He was ruled out with a concussion. ... Atlanta safety Keanu Neal was carted off the field late in the first half at Indianapolis with an Achilles tendon injury. He missed last season after tearing an ACL in the season opener. ... Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton aggravated a quadriceps injury. ... Chiefs running back LeSean McCoy aggravated his sore ankle on his touchdown catch in the fourth quarter.

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SPEAKING

''I took basically one shot. I hit the ground one time. So, I'm ecstatic. I've been at this for a long time. To go home with my body feeling this good is a credit to the offensive line, for sure.'' - Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, who wasn't sacked and was barely touched by Denver's defense in the Packers' 27-16 victory.

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''I was feeling like everyone was open and I was throwing it to people in my color jersey who were open. It was just one of those days.'' - Indianapolis quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who threw for 310 yards and two TDs in Indianapolis' 27-24 win over Atlanta

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Packers 27, Broncos 16:
— Denver is 0-3 for the first time since 1999.
— Since 2012, Broncos are 6-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— Denver still doesn’t have a sack or a takeaway this year.

— Packers had six sacks, three takeaways (+3).
— Broncos were 8-15 on third down, Green Bay 2-9
— SouthPoint has a prop bet; Packers (8-1) were first team to score a TD Sunday.

Lions 27, Eagles 24:
— Detroit is 2-0-1, its best start since a 4-0 start in 2011.
— Jamal Agnew returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD.
— Marvin Jones caught six passes for 101 yards.

— Eagles covered only twice in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Philly has trailed all three of its games at halftime, outscored 50-23.
— Eagles dropped seven passes, were called for offensive interference three times.

Chiefs 33, Ravens 28:
— Lamar Jackson was only 22-43 passing, ran for only 46 yards.
— Jackson is 8-2 as a starter, with both losses in Kansas City.
— Ravens tried a drop kick/onside kick that didn’t work but was cool to watch.

— Total yardage was 503-452 Chiefs.
— KC ran 54 plays; only nine of them were on third down.
— Chiefs are 10-6 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bills 21, Bengals 17:
— Bengals lost first two road games by total of five points.
— Cincy covered eight of last ten games as road underdogs.
— Zac Taylor is 3rd Bengal HC in row to start his Cincy career 0-3.

— Bills led 14-0 at half, needed TD with 1:50 left for the win.
— Josh Allen’s first 12 completions went to nine different receivers.
— Buffalo won five of last six series games, five of which were decided by 4 or fewer points.

Colts 27, Falcons 24:
— Atlanta had four turnovers (-2), has 10 in three games (-5).
— In three games, Falcons have thrown ball 123 times, run it only 54 times.
— Atlanta is now 0-11 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC foes, 1-8 ATS in last nine games as road underdogs

— Brissett threw for 310 yards, averaging 8.1 yards/attempt.
— Indy has converted 19-35 third down plays this season.
— Last 2+ years, Colts are 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Vikings 34, Raiders 14:
— Oakland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games on artificial turf.
— Raiders were 3-11 on 3rd down, after being 16-28 in first two games.
— Last 2+ years, Oakland is 3-13-1 ATS as road underdog.

— Vikings ran ball for 211 yards, have 581 RY in three games.
— Dalvin Cook is first player in Vikings history to rush for 100+ yards in each of the team’s first three games of a season.
— Minnesota covered 16 of last 21 games vs AFC opponents; they’re 21-5-1 ATS in last 27 games as a HF.

Patriots 30, Jets 14:
— Jets lost last four visits to Foxboro by combined score of 135-26.
— NYJ gained 101 yards on 46 plays, had only six first downs.
— Jets are 0-3 for the first time since 2003.

— NE covered 13 of its last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Patriots won first three games by combined score of 106-17.
— First TD NE allows this year comes on a muffed punt recovered by the Jets in end zone.

Cowboys 31, Dolphins 6:
— Miami lost a fumble in red zone when they trailed only 10-6 near end of 1st half.
— Dolphins have been outscored 68-0 in second half of games.
— 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.

— Cowboys are 3-0 for first time since 2008.
— Dallas scored 35-31-31 points in their first three games.
— Cowboys converted 18-31 third down plays this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 3 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1.5 (674)- W
5) Ravens +6.5 (794)- W
4) Steelers +6.5 (934)- W
3) Lions +6 (937)- W
2) Seahawks -4 (974)- L
1) Rams -3 (1,474)- W

2019 record: 12-6


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Packers 27, Broncos 16:
— Denver is 0-3 for the first time since 1999.
— Since 2012, Broncos are 6-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— Denver still doesn’t have a sack or a takeaway this year.

— Packers had six sacks, three takeaways (+3).
— Broncos were 8-15 on third down, Green Bay 2-9
— SouthPoint has a prop bet; Packers (8-1) were first team to score a TD Sunday.

Lions 27, Eagles 24:
— Detroit is 2-0-1, its best start since a 4-0 start in 2011.
— Jamal Agnew returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD.
— Marvin Jones caught six passes for 101 yards.

— Eagles covered only twice in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Philly has trailed all three of its games at halftime, outscored 50-23.
— Eagles dropped seven passes, were called for offensive interference three times.

Chiefs 33, Ravens 28:
— Lamar Jackson was only 22-43 passing, ran for only 46 yards.
— Jackson is 8-2 as a starter, with both losses in Kansas City.
— Ravens tried a drop kick/onside kick that didn’t work but was cool to watch.

— Total yardage was 503-452 Chiefs.
— KC ran 54 plays; only nine of them were on third down.
— Chiefs are 10-6 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bills 21, Bengals 17:
— Bengals lost first two road games by total of five points.
— Cincy covered eight of last ten games as road underdogs.
— Zac Taylor is 3rd Bengal HC in row to start his Cincy career 0-3.

— Bills led 14-0 at half, needed TD with 1:50 left for the win.
— Josh Allen’s first 12 completions went to nine different receivers.
— Buffalo won five of last six series games, five of which were decided by 4 or fewer points.

Colts 27, Falcons 24:
— Atlanta had four turnovers (-2), has 10 in three games (-5).
— In three games, Falcons have thrown ball 123 times, run it only 54 times.
— Atlanta is now 0-11 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC foes, 1-8 ATS in last nine games as road underdogs

— Brissett threw for 310 yards, averaging 8.1 yards/attempt.
— Indy has converted 19-35 third down plays this season.
— Last 2+ years, Colts are 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Vikings 34, Raiders 14:
— Oakland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games on artificial turf.
— Raiders were 3-11 on 3rd down, after being 16-28 in first two games.
— Last 2+ years, Oakland is 3-13-1 ATS as road underdog.

— Vikings ran ball for 211 yards, have 581 RY in three games.
— Dalvin Cook is first player in Vikings history to rush for 100+ yards in each of the team’s first three games of a season.
— Minnesota covered 16 of last 21 games vs AFC opponents; they’re 21-5-1 ATS in last 27 games as a HF.

Patriots 30, Jets 14:
— Jets lost last four visits to Foxboro by combined score of 135-26.
— NYJ gained 101 yards on 46 plays, had only six first downs.
— Jets are 0-3 for the first time since 2003.

— NE covered 13 of its last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Patriots won first three games by combined score of 106-17.
— First TD NE allows this year comes on a muffed punt recovered by the Jets in end zone.

Cowboys 31, Dolphins 6:
— Miami lost a fumble in red zone when they trailed only 10-6 near end of 1st half.
— Dolphins have been outscored 68-0 in second half of games.
— 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.

— Cowboys are 3-0 for first time since 2008.
— Dallas scored 35-31-31 points in their first three games.
— Cowboys converted 18-31 third down plays this season.

Giants 32, Bucs 31:
— Daniel Jones threw for two TD’s, ran for two more in his first NFL start.
— Shepard/Engram both had 100+ receiving yards.
— This was Giants’ first win when trailing by 18+ points at the half since 1949.

— Bucs in first half: 39 plays, 345 yards, 3 TD’s, 3 FG’s, led 28-10 at half.
— Bucs in 2nd half: 39 plays, 178 yards, one FG.
— Tampa Bay missed two PAT’s, and then a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game.

Panthers 38, Cardinals 20:
— Kyle Allen’s 2nd NFL start: 19-26, 261 yards, four TD’s.
— McCaffrey ran for 153 yards, including a 76-yard TD run.
— Carolina had a 14-yard edge in field position.

— Murray was sacked 8 times, averaged just 2.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Cardinals have been outscored 48-16 in first half of their games.
— Arizona is 14-19-1 ATS in their last 34 home games.

49ers 24, Steelers 20:
— Rudolph was 14-27/174 passing, with TD passes of 76-39 yards.
— Steelers were 3-12 on third down, 49ers were 6-11.
— Total yardage was 436-239, SF.

— 49ers won despite turning ball over four of first five times they had ball.
— SF is now 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite
— Niners scored 17 points on three drives that started in Pitt territory.

Saints 33, Seahawks 27:
— Saints scored their first two TD’s on a punt return and fumble return.
— NO is 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Bridgewater is now 18-11 as a starting QB.

— Seattle’s first 8 drives: 42 plays, 265 yards, 7 points.
— Seattle’s last 4 drives: 34 plays, 244 yards, 20 points.
— Seahawks are 4-9-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

Texans 27, Chargers 20:
— Watson threw for 351 yards, averaged 9.4 yards/attempt.
— Houston has converted 19-38 third down plays this year.
— Texans covered five of last six tries as a road underdog, are 12-8-1 ATS in last 21 games where spread was 3 or fewer points.

— Chargers in first half: 34 plays, 204 yards, 17 points.
— Chargers in second half: 37 plays, 162 yards, 3 points.
— Chargers are 5-10 ATS as a home favorite in Carson.

Rams 20, Browns 13:
— LA in 16 first half drives this year: one TD, five FG’s. No bueno.
— Under McVay, LA is 9-5 ATS as a road favorite
— LA had 3 turnovers (-2), missed a FG, still got a road win. Muy bueno.

— Four trips to red zone, Cleveland scored only 13 points.
— Browns are 7-16-1 ATS in last 24 games as a home underdog
— Cleveland is only 11-39 on third down this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 30-16-1
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 23-23-1
Against the Spread 15-31-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 21-26

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Giants (+5.5, ML +210) at Buccaneers, 32-31
Saints (+5, ML +200) at Seahawks, 33-27
Lions (+4, ML +180) at Eagles, 27-24
Texans (+3, ML +145) at Chargers, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-22.5) vs. Dolphins, 31-6
Vikings (-9) vs. Raiders, 34-14
Packers (-7) vs. Broncos, 27-16
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Ravens, 33-28
Rams (-4.5) at Browns, 20-13

Stacking Dimes

-- The New York Giants (+5.5, ML +210) rallied for the 32-31 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in the first-career start for rookie QB Daniel Jones, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He replaced two-time Super Bowl winner QB Eli Manning, and his selection was viewed as a bit of a reach by some. However, if Sunday's game is any indication, the G-Men appear to have made the right decision in selecting him, as well as making the change in Week 3. He completed 23-of-36 passes for 336 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four runs, 28 yards and two more touchdowns, including the game-winner late in the fourth quarter.

The Legend of Danny Dimes grows after a tremendous preseason. He went into the huddle at one point of the second quarter and said, "Let's f***ing score!", which was surprising to his teammates, as he reportedly had never been overheard swearing in the past. Elias Sports Bureau reports that since the 1970 merger only Jones and former Detroit Lions QB Eric Hipple are the only players to pass for two TDs and run for two TDs in his first-career start.

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns were much better in their second home game of the season against the Los Angeles Rams than they were in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans, but the results were the same - a loss and a non-cover. The entire secondary for the Browns was inactive, but they nearly tied the game up in the closing seconds. The Browns, who were blown out 43-13 in Week 1 by the Titans, moved inside the 5-yard line of the Rams in the final ticks. However, QB Baker Mayfield scrambled to the right and was picked off on the final play, falling 20-13 in a surprisingly low-scoring game. The public helped the books take a huge bath as a result of the favorite Rams covering the 4.5 points.

Total Recall

-- The over went 9-6 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, quite a bit different than Week 2 when the under connected in 13 of 16 outings.

The highest total on the board was the Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs (52) ended up covering fairly handily with 61 total points. That was the only total in the 50's. The second-highest total was the Houston Texans-Los Angeles Chargers (49) game, which went just under with 47 points. QB Philip Rivers was picked off in the red zone to end the threat of overtime, and the threat of an over ticket. The two games with totals at 48, the aforementioned Giants-Bucs game, and Atlanta Falcons-Indianapolis Colts games each saw 'over' results.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Tennessee Titans-Jacksonville Jaguars (38) game, which easily hits the under with a total of 27 points. It started out looking like it might be high-scoring, as QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes. However, a scoreless second quarter, and a total of three points in the third put the nail in the coffin for those holding 'over' tickets.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 through the first two primetime games of Week 3, with the low Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears-Washington Redskins (41) still pending. The 'over' is 1-8 (11.1%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- The biggest injury of the weekend occurred in that Giants-Bucs battle, as New York RB Saquon Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain after getting his foot caught under a tackler in the second quarter. He was on crutches and in a walking boot on the sidelines in the second half. The injury didn't keep him from hobbling over and celebrating with his teammates following the win.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) entered Sunday's game questionable against the Falcons due to a quad injury, and he aggravated the ailment.

-- Patriots WR Julian Edelman (chest) left with a chest injury suffered against the Jets. He had X-rays which came back negative.

-- Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) exited early due to an ankle injury for the team which was already missing starter RB Damien Williams (knee).

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns travel to meet the Ravens in a battle between the top two teams in the AFC North. The Browns have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five road games, although they're 6-16-1 ATS in the past 23 inside the division. They did a good job shutting down the running game of the Rams in Week 2, but facing QB Lamar Jackson is a whole other animal. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and 0-4 ATS in the past four inside the division. While Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, the road team is 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 meetings. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five, and 6-2 in the previous eight battles in Charm City.

-- The Patriots have dominated the Bills in the past, but it's a new day in Buffalo. We'll see if it's the same old results. Buffalo has fired out to a 3-0 SU record, and they're 2-1 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of their first three. New England is 20-8 ATS in the past 28 games on the road, while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. They've really made Western New York their home, going 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 trips to Buffalo. The road team is also 20-7-1 ATS in the past 28 in this series.

-- In another divisional matchup, Jones and the Giants will look to carry over their momentum from Tampa back to MetLife Stadium against the 'Skins. Washington has covered just once in the past six games inside the NFC East, although that one cover happened in Week 1 in Philadelphia. They're 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on the road, too. The G-Men have posted a 5-2-1 ATS mark in the past eight against the NFC, including their outright win against the Bucs. If you're a fan of totals, the 'under' is 13-3 in the past 16 battles in New Jersey, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

-- The Seahawks and Cardinals hook up in the desert on Sunday afternoon. QB Kyler Murray and the Cards are searching for their first win, going 0-2-1 SU. However, they are 2-1 ATS in the first three, including a pair of 'over' results at home. This series has been all about the road team, as the visitors are 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine in this series. Seattle has an impressive 4-1-1 ATS mark in the past six trips to the desert, too. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Glendale, too.

-- The Vikings and Bears get together in the Windy City, and Chicago looks to maintain its dominance against the number. The Bears are 13-3 ATS in the past 16 at home against the Vikings, and 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The under has hit in four of the past five at Soldier Field with 11 unders in the past 15 meetings overall.

-- On Monday Night Football the winless Bengals and winless Steelers square off at Heinz Field. The Bengals have posted a 2-0 ATS mark in their two games so far on the road, and they have covered their past six away games dating back to last season. Cincinnati is also 7-2 ATS in the past nine divisional matchups. Pittsburgh has dominated, going 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 home games against the Bengals, but it's a new day with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) already done and QB Mason Rudolph under center.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Bears at Redskins
Tony Mejia

Bears at Redskins (-5, 41), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Hopefully the guys in stripes relax with the penalties in Landover since points aren’t likely to be plentiful and Tom Brady may be tuned in with his itchy Twitter trigger-finger loaded and ready.

The rumor around the NFL on Sunday was that officiating crews had been told to relax some on calling every single holding penalty, which has been a point of emphasis early on. A fun day of football unfolded with multiple high-scoring games serving as the top buffet offerings, but Monday’s menu item pits a pair of teams that have started slowly and may mix in some inclement weather to deliver an unwatchable product that you have to stay tuned in for presuming the game is at least close.

Washington (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) hasn’t looked particularly effective since the first half of its Week 1 loss to the Eagles in which it blew a 17-0 lead before avoiding a double-digit loss via touchdown with six seconds left. The defense has given up a pair of 30-point games against Philadelphia and Dallas while Keenum has thrown for 600 yards and five scores without being in position to win a game come fourth quarter.

Chicago (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) counterpart Mitchell Trubisky flopped in the season-opening home loss to Green Bay and made up for a brutal game in Denver by putting the team in position to steal back a 16-14 win they nearly let get away, completing a 25-yard pass to Allen Robinson on 4th-and-15 with a second left to send up a 53-yard field goal from new kicker Eddy Pineiro. That kick has completely changed the narrative regarding the Bears, who have scored a single touchdown in two games. Instead of panic setting in, head coach Matt Nagy is encouraged that Trubisky will improve as his own play-calling does, not to mention thankful that the defense has surrendered just 12 points per game to give Chicago a chance.

Robinson has looked effective as the No. 1 receiver, but the rest of the offense has really struggled and Trubisky has been especially disappointing. Nagy has seen enough of his erratic throws in practice to trust his run game ahead of even short passes, while an offensive line that has dealt with excellent defensive fronts probably won’t catch the break of missing Washington’s top player, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. Read the injury report portion of this preview below for more on his availability, but the likelihood is that he’ll be out there after missing the majority of snaps thus far following a first-half injury in Philadelphia.

The Bears have yet to allow a point in the third quarter, which is a great sign new coordinator Chuck Pagano has a strong feel for what he inherited personnel-wise from Vic Fangio, who moved on to become head coach in Denver. Between his penchant for exotic blitzes and the trust he puts in his defensive guys to take chances and make plays, the Bears’ alpha group remains the defense, and they’ll need to step up to throw Keenum off his rhythm and take advantage of a young receiving corps led by rookie Terry McLaurin, who has touchdown catches in his first two games as a pro.

Bears fans will get another look at old rival Adrian Peterson, who is back in an RB1 role due to an injury to Derrius Guice but was held to just 25 yards on 10 carries by the Cowboys. Washington needs a vintage performance from Peterson to keep the Bears defense from coming after Keenum, who will again be working behind an offensive line missing long-time anchor Trent Williams. The All-Pro left tackle remains away from the team in a contract dispute, which combined with tight end Jordan Reed’s continued absence due to a concussion, leaves Washington awfully inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball.

Keenum has responded thus far but will be seeing the best defense he’s faced thus far. The worst-case scenario for the ‘Skins would be a double-digit deficit that would allow the Bears to disregard their run defense and come after him. To avoid such a fate, the Greg Manusky-led defensive unit that has the coordinator on the hot seat by coming in 30th in the NFL in yards and points allowed can’t afford to let Trubisky find a flow on the road. The third-year starter taken ahead of league MVP Patrick Mahomes and Houston’s Deshaun Watson went 5-3 on the road last season but threw just five touchdown passes away from Soldier Field and was far less aggressive. We’ll see if Nagy is more willing to take the training wheels off despite his inconsistency thus far in 2019.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast and could potentially be in the mix by halftime, which could turn this into a punt-fest if both coordinators stall out conservatively waiting for the other team to make the first mistake. The total opened as high as 42.5 at various shops but has been bet down to 41 and may continue to dip if money comes in on the 'under.'

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"Last Monday the public recognized the mismatch with Browns-Jets and were rewarded. Sharp action was rather light until +7 appeared they were scooped up immediately," said Berg, who you can follow on Twitter @Percentberg. "Tonight's tilt is a bit different as both teams have really struggled out of the gate. Obviously the Bears thus far are a bigger disappointment between the two but the optimism is still reflected in Chicago as a -5.5-point favorite at Caesars.

"We took a highly regarded bet on the Bears at 4.5. The public bettors don't look as eager to back Chicago but most of them will eventually end up on them by kickoff."

Chicago Bears
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current):7/4 to 14/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 12/1 to 25/1

Washington Redskins
Projected season win total: 6 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 40/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 150/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 300/1 to 1000/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Neither the Bears nor Redskins have impressed over their first two games, and odds to win the NFC and Super Bowl at Westgate, but these teams are certainy perceived differently. The Bears have underperformed with Trubisky not taking a step forward yet and the offense struggling, but they're still regarded as dangerous in the fairly wide-open NFC. The perception of the 'Skins is that they'll finish among the lowest of the low in the conference, so odds may not be more lucrative that now if you believe a home upset here will spark a revival few others see coming.

The Packers, Vikings and Lions are off to strong starts in the NFC North, so a setback here would put the Bears at the bottom of a division where they they came into the week even with Minnesota (14/5) and ahead of Detroit (13/2). Green Bay (5/4) is the division favorite. Dallas and Philadelphia opened the week as co-favorites (10/11) to win the NFC East, so congratulations if you got in on the Cowboys before those numbers are adjusted following Sunday's results.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Bears were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opened the week as a 4-point 'chalk' throughout most shops and was bet up to 5.5 points on Sunday. The number is likely to fluctuate between 4.5 points and 5.5 points up until kickoff.

The money line opened at Chicago -200 at Caesars and has since climbed to -230. If you're in on the home underdog 'Skins to pick up their first victory, they've climbed from +175 to +190.

INJURY CONCERNS

Allen, a former Alabama standout who has quietly become one of the NFL's most formidable young forces up front, has vowed to play after suffering a knee injury and participated in full on Saturday. Safety Montae Nicholson will also go after dealing with a foot issue and tackle Morgan Moses (knee) will try and help make up Williams' absence.

The 'Skins will be missing LB Cassanova McKinzy and may be without corner Quinton Dunbar, so a suspect secondary could be even thinner. CB Fabian Moreau should play but has been bothered by an ankle issue. Veteran CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie landed on IR earlier this week.

The Bears appear to be the healthier group, ruling out only DT Bilal Nichols. Standout safety Eddie Jackson should play through a shoulder issue and nose tackle Eddie Goldman practiced through an oblique injury on Saturday and is expected to play. Pineiro, on the heels of his heroic season-altering make, is questionable after sustaining an oblique injury in the team weight room on Friday. If he can't play, Chicago will have until 3 PM ET on Monday to sign another kicker.

RECENT MEETINGS (Redskins 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS last nine; OVER 5-3-1)

12/24/16 Redskins 41-21 at Bears (WASH -3, 49)
12/13/15 Redskins 24-21 at Bears (WASH +3.5, 43)
10/20/13 Redskins 45-41 vs. Bears (WASH +1, 47.5)
10/24/10 Redskins 17-14 at Bears (WASH +3, 40)
12/6/07 Redskins 24-16 vs. Bears (WASH -3, 40)
9/11/05 Redskins 9-7 vs. Bears (CHI +6, 33)
10/17/04 Redskins 13-10 at Bears (WASH +1.5, 33.5)
12/21/03 Bears 27-24 vs. Redskins (WASH +4, 35)
12/23/01 Bears 20-15 at Redskins (CHI +1, 33)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 4 currently has the Bears as a 3-point home favorite against the Vikings. The Redskins were listed as a 2-point underdog against the Daniel Jones' led Giants, but that number figures to change given Saquon Barkley's likely absence.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 4 odds: Can Bills measure up to Patriots in battle of AFC East unbeatens?
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen has helped Buffalo to a 3-0 SU and ATS mark, but the first real test of the season awaits in Week 4. The Bills opened as 7-point home underdogs against the Patriots, who are also 3-0 (2-1 ATS).

The NFL regular season’s first month wraps up with some intriguing Week 4 matchups, including a battle of unbeatens in the AFC East. Covers checks in on that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)

It’s no surprise at all that defending Super Bowl champion New England – despite the Antonio Brown drama – sits unbeaten through three weeks. The Patriots (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) had no trouble with the New York Jets on Sunday, building a 30-0 lead and coasting 30-14 as huge 20.5-point home favorites.

Buffalo being unbeaten is perhaps a bit of a surprise, since it opened with two straight road games – both at MetLife Stadium, where they beat the Jets and Giants. In Week 3, the Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) blew all of a 14-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati, but got a late TD to win 21-17 as 5.5-point home faves.

“Buffalo is 3-0 but has done it against a super easy schedule,” Murray said. “We will find out a lot about Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense in this game. Their defense is legit.”

There weren’t enough takers on either side Sunday night to move the needle, as the line remained 7 flat.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+3)

Dallas has had little trouble through three weeks, on the field or for bettors, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Cowboys rolled over hapless Miami 31-6 Sunday to cover as hefty 22-point home favorites.

New Orleans lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2 and likely won’t have his services for a few more weeks. However, the Saints (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Seattle as 5-point pups and exited with a 33-27 outright victory behind Teddy Bridgewater.

Brees’ absence certainly takes the luster off this Sunday night matchup, but Dallas backers were interested from the jump.

“We took money immediately on Dallas and moved to -3 (-120),” Murray said of a price adjustment on the Cowboys, noting he expects more Pokes money to come. “The books will need the Saints big in this game.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Green Bay is also out of the gate 3-0 SU and has come through for bettors all three weeks, as well. The Packers took care of Denver on Sunday, going off as 7-point home favorites and claiming a 27-16 victory.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has struggled in the early going, dropping two in a row while failing to cash in any of its three games. On Sunday, the Eagles (1-2 SU) were 4-point home faves against Detroit, trailed 20-10 at halftime and couldn’t quite get there in a 27-24 loss.

Philly also isn’t in a good spot for a short turnaround, playing Green Bay under the Thursday night lights.

“The Eagles are very banged up right now,” Murray said. “The Packers are 3-0 but weren’t overly impressive on offense today. Denver turnovers gave them some short fields to work with.”

This game also saw no early movement Sunday night.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Minnesota hopes it can bottle up some of its home success and take it on the road in Week 4. The Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS) rolled in in Weeks 1 and 3 at home, then fell in between at Green Bay. On Sunday, the Vikes discarded visiting Oakland 34-14 laying 8.5 points.

Chicago still has some Week 3 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Washington. The Bears (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have yet to look like the 12-4 SU and ATS team of last year. After an extremely lackluster Week 1 home loss to Green Bay, the Bears barely escaped Denver with a 16-14 win on a last-second 53-yard field goal, failing to cover as 3-point favorites.

“It’s a short week for the Bears, and they will come home to host the Vikings in a critical division game,” Murray said. “Can Kirk Cousins avoid turning the ball over? If he does, I think the Vikings win on the road.”

While the Bears opened -2.5, the price at that number was -120. As of Sunday night, there were no moves.

[StarDust Bum]

Books take a loss in Week 3
September 23, 2019
By Micah Roberts

The Rams 20-13 Sunday night win at Cleveland had a massive effect on how Nevada sportsbooks fared in Week 3 action and let’s just say Joe Public did extremely well to the game which was tied into several of their winning sides from earlier in the day.

The books sweated out each of the first 13 games in the day only to have this one powder keg of risk in a game determine their entire day. The Rams opened -3 EVEN and moved up to -4.5 by kickoff in part because of bets but also because of large parlay risk ready to cash with the Rams covering.

“We’re getting beat up,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback prior to kickoff of the late game. “And we can’t get out of it even if the Browns win. There’s no way out, we’re destined to lose and if the Rams win it’ll be a semi-ugly day. Not a Black Sunday type of loss, but still semi-ugly.”

MGM books were not alone. Westgate Las Vegas Superbook VP Jay Kornegay said they had a few 10-team parlays cashing (550-to-1 ties win parlay cards) and that they went 1-2 in their biggest decisions before pending Browns decision, who they needed huge.

“Our day is up to the Browns,” said William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich.

The books that had good results in the first 13 games also needed the Browns to stay in the black for the day.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis said they were having a “Monster day with the first 13 games, but it’s mostly gone if the Rams get there.”

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said before kickoff “We’re OK right now, but Rams and over (48) make it a nothing day.”

The combination of sharps doing well, the public hitting a few parlays with the Rams sealing the deal was huge, and then there were also the teasers showing how damaging they can be for the house.

“Seven of the eight home favorites in the early games won on the teasers and our teaser loss on the day accounts for half of our overall loss on the day,” Stoneback said.

MGM books got saved from the Eagles not covering on the teaser, but they got triple whacked in sharp straight bets taking the Lions.

“The Lions were bet down from +7 to +4, the sharps were all over them this week,” Stoneback said. “It was our worst game of the day (until the Rams).”

The Lions 27-24 win at Philadelphia was also an attractive play for teaser bettors getting over the key number of going across +7 and pass +10.

Sharps also did well with the Ravens forcing the Chiefs to drop from 6.5-point home favorites down to -4.5 by kickoff.

“For once we were in a position to be rooting the Chiefs and Over, but the Ravens got there,” Stoneback said.

Technically, the Chiefs covered the closing number with the 33-28 win, and the game went over 52 total points, but the damage was done on the way down the spread ladder. Stoneback also said there was a missing element in Week 3.

“Sharp money overwhelmed the public’s money for the first time this season,” he said.

The usual situation is that sharps and the public are on different sides so when paying out a bunch from one side there’s always that surplus from the other side. But the big parlay action wasn’t there at MGM books on the strip like it was the first two weeks, both weeks where their books did well while the sharps didn’t.

“We had sharp money also on the Steelers and they bet the Cowboys early at -21 and we got late Carolina money also,” Stoneback said. “The Saints actually saved us from a total disaster on the day. They bet the Seahawks at -4 up to -5.5. We also needed Tampa Bay.”

How about the new era of the Giants with rookie quarterback Daniel Jones? A sensational debut for the sixth overall draft pick throwing for 336 yards and accounting for four TD’s, the last being a 7-yard run with 1:16 remaining to take their first lead of the game 32-31. The Bucs drove down to the field to set up a winning 34-yard field goal for rookie Matt Gay, but it went wide-right just like another Giants opponent did at the buzzer in a Super Bowl played at Tampa in 1991.

“The Giants were one of those teams that were popular with sharps and the public because there was a lot of hype surrounding Daniel Jones after he had a stellar preseason,” Stoneback said.

As the Giants new era begins on a high note, they also lost running back Saquon Barkley with a high ankle sprain and no timetable for his return has been set.

Overall, the favorites went 6-8 against the spread on Sunday aided by all five afternoon road underdogs covering and the over went 9-5.