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**StarDust Bum** · 09-17-2019, 06:00 PM

Browns better under bright lights, but many problems remain
September 17, 2019

CLEVELAND (AP) Once Odell Beckham switched on the afterburners and jetted away from the Jets for the longest touchdown of his career, the Browns put a disappointing loss and an emotional week behind them.

They can breathe again. For a second.

Under the bright lights and back where he spent his first five NFL seasons, Beckham scored on an electrifying 89-yard play and made another one of those famous one-handed catches as the Browns eased some of the pressure on them with a 23-3 win Monday night over the New York Jets, who were missing their two best players and down to their third-string quarterback.

New York's misfortune was perfectly timed for the Browns (1-1), who had performed so poorly in their Week 1 loss to Tennessee.

This was better, but still not where the Browns want to be.

''We didn't play our best football,'' said Beckham, who had 161 yards receiving but couldn't escape more drama, this time with an illegal helmet visor. ''But we got the `W' and that's all that matters.''

There are still some major issues for rookie coach Freddie Kitchens to address. Cleveland cut its penalties from Week 1 in half, dropping from a mind-boggling 18 to 9, but star defensive end Myles Garrett offset a career-high three sacks with five penalties - two for roughing.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield and the Browns' offense isn't hitting on all cylinders, and Kitchens is still searching for the right passing-running balance as he juggles play calling and other duties.

The Browns, though, avoided an 0-2 start that could have upended their season and made a brutal stretch ahead - Cleveland's next five opponents are all 2-0 - even tougher.

''Consistency for us is the goal right now,'' said Mayfield, who completed 19 of 35 passes for a misleading 325 yards. ''That falls back on me. We are just scratching the surface.''

WHAT'S WORKING

Cleveland's defensive front four, led by the ferocious Garrett, devastated New York's offensive line from the start. The Jets couldn't protect Trevor Siemian, who started in place of an ill Sam Darnold.

WHAT NEEDS HELP

Kitchens seems to be trying too hard to make all his skill players happy, when he should probably be getting the ball more to Nick Chubb.

The second-year running back had 22 touches - 18 carries for 62 yards and a 19-yard TD, four receptions for 36 yards. But the Browns are often lined up with five receivers, and Kitchens put Mayfield in harm's way by having him throw late in the game despite a three-score lead.

''We need to get the ball out of his hands quicker,'' Kitchens said. ''He is taking too many hits. I do not like my quarterback to take hits. I need to get the ball out of his hands quicker.''

STOCK UP

Garrett's goal is to be NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and he's the early leader.

With five sacks in two games, Garrett has set the tone for his season, but he might need to slow down a tad. He was twice flagged for late hits on Siemian, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury on the second penalty.

Both infractions were suspect, but the league is cracking down on hits to QBs and Garrett must avoid being labeled dirty or reckless.

STOCK DOWN

Mayfield has been inaccurate and hesitant through two games. Now that teams have more tape to watch on him, Mayfield is being shown different defensive looks and he's been slow to adjust.

He was off target on Cleveland's first series, missing a wide-open Jarvis Landry on third down and wasted some other potential big plays by leaving the pocket early.

''He just missed some of the throws,'' said Kitchens, who got a little defensive about his QB on a teleconference. ''Some of the angles were off. Just overall, just missing throws. He is not going to make every throw. I have to do a better job of creating better throws for him.''

INJURED

Tight end David Njoku suffered a concussion in the first half when Mayfield hung him out with a high pass and he was undercut. ... Chubb briefly left the game, but Kitchens said he only got the wind knocked out of him.

KEY NUMBER

21.7 mph - That's how fast Beckham was clocked running on his long TD, a speed that would warrant a traffic ticket in school zones.

NEXT STEPS

The Browns passed their first prime-time test, but they'll face a much bigger challenge this week against the defending NFC champion Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night.

Kitchens felt his team played with more ''passion and not off emotion'' against the Jets.

It was a small step forward for the Browns, who couldn't afford to take another one sideways.

**Udog** · 09-17-2019, 11:46 PM

Can the Cowboys or Patriots break the betting curse of the NFL's biggest favorites?
Jason Logan

Despite decades of dominance, it would seem the one thing Tom Brady & Co. can’t conquer is the 20-plus mountain at the sportsbook. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS when giving 20 or more points to opponents.

A 20-point favorite in the NFL is somewhat like a Siberian tiger: you know they’re out there, but you don’t see them often.

Well, someone better call National Geographic because Week 3 of the NFL season features not one – but two 20-point faves on Sunday’s odds board. The New England Patriots are currently 22.5-point home favorites hosting the New York Jets and the Dallas Cowboys are giving 21.5 points to the visiting Miami Dolphins.

The Patriots are no strangers to lofty pointspreads. New England just breezed through an 18-point spread on the road against the Dolphins last Sunday, cruising to a 43-0 victory (setting the table for the Miami-Dallas line), and going back to 1984 has been a favorite of 20-plus points four times in that span.

However, despite all the Super Bowl rings and decades of dominance, it would seem the one thing Tom Brady & Co. can’t conquer is the 20-plus mountain at the sportsbook. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS when giving 20 or more points to opponents, which is par for the course when it comes to these monumental handicaps.

In that same 35-year span (our Covers databases goes back as far as 1984), there have been seven NFL favorites of 20 points or more and none of those teams have covered the spread: a perfect 0-7 ATS for the greatest betting mismatches in NFL history.

Here’s a quick rundown of those odds and results:

October 13, 2013 - Jacksonville at Denver (-26.5): Denver 35-19
December 12, 2011 – Indianapolis at New England (-20.5) – New England 31-24
December 23, 2007 – Miami at New England (-22) – New England 28-7
December 16, 2007 – N.Y. Jets at New England (-20.5) – New England 20-10
November 25, 2007 – Philadelphia at New England (-24) – New England 31-28
December 5, 1993 – Cincinnati at San Francisco (-24) – San Francisco 21-8
October 11, 1987 – Atlanta at San Francisco (-23.5) – San Francisco 25-17

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2019, 02:45 AM

Wednesday’s 6-pack

NFL trends for Week 3:

— Falcons are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs AFC opponents.

— Eagles covered twice in last nine games as a home favorite.

— Vikings are 20-5-1 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite.

— Denver is 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Patriots covered 12 of last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Raiders covered their last six road openers.

Tweet of the Day
“Eli and I spoke this morning. I told him that we are making a change and going with Daniel as the starter. I also talked to Daniel. Eli was obviously disappointed, as you would expect, but he said he would be what he has always been, a good teammate, and continue to prepare to help this team win games……”
Giants’ coach Pat Shurmur

Wednesday’s quiz
Who was the Giants’ head coach before Pat Shurmur?

Tuesday’s quiz
Jeff Fisher coached the Tennessee Titans in their only Super Bowl appearance.

Monday’s quiz
Chris Chandler was the Atlanta Falcons’ QB the first time they played in a Super Bowl, when they lost to Denver

***************************

Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) NFL trends; over last 20 years, 11 NFL teams started their season 0-2, with both losses at home; those teams went 4-6-1 vs spread in their Week 3 road game.

This week, Jets, Panthers, Dolphins fit the bill.

12) Since 2005, NFL Week 3 home teams who played their first two games on the road are 11-28-2 vs spread; 6-22-2 when favored, 5-6 as an underdog.

49ers, Colts, Bills, Jets fit the bill this week.

11) Daniel Jones is starting at QB for the Giants Sunday in Tampa; last time Eli Manning got benched, that coach got fired a few weeks later, and Eli started again. We’ll see how this goes, but Jones doesn’t play defense, which is the Giants’ biggest problem.

10) Submitted for your perusal, with no comment:
Jim Plunkett: 72-72 regular season, 8-2 playoffs, two Super Bowls.
Eli Manning: 116-116 regular season, 8-4 playoffs, two Super Bowls.

9) Steelers signed QB Paxton Lynch to their practice squad; he figures to be Mason Rudolph’s backup sooner than later.

8) NFC West teams are 7-1 against the spread so far this season.

7) MAC teams are 4-12 ATS as a road underdog outside their conference.

6) Nation-wide, home underdogs are 11-18 ATS in non-conference college games.

5) Pretty cool with Giants’ OF Mike Yastrzemski in Boston this week, playing on the same field where his Hall of Fame grandfather played from 1961-83.

Carl Yastrzemski hit 452 homers playing half his games in a ballpark not built for lefty hitters; he had an .841 career OPS.

Mike Yastrzemski was traded from the sadsack Orioles to San Francisco on March 23; he is hitting .263 with 19 homers in a breakout rookie season- this should be a fun week for him.

4) Cardinals beat Washington 4-2 Monday night, but St Louis pitchers struck out only one batter the whole game, which in this day and age is pretty rare.

3) Sean Payton agreed to a 5-year contract extension that takes him through 2024, which would be his 19th season coaching the Saints.

2) New England is -22.5 against the Jets; how many points would you have to get before you would take the Jets?

Dolphins are +21 at Dallas; when was last time two NFL teams got 20+ points in the same week?

1) Big X teams are 13-4 ATS out of conference this season, 9-2 as a favorite.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2019, 03:17 AM

NFL Week 3

Titans (1-1) @ Jaguars (0-2)— Jacksonville lost its first two games; star CB Ramsey wants to be traded. QB Minshew was 23-33/178 in his first NFL start. Jaguars are 8-6 in last 14 games as a home underdog; they don’t have a takeaway yet (-3 in TO’s), scored only 21 points in five trips to red zone. Titans converted only 3-20 third down plays; they’re +5 in turnovers in two games. Tennessee won last four series games, winning 37-16/9-6 in last two visits here; they waxed Jaguars 9-6/30-9 in LY’s meetings. Last eight years, Titans are 5-18-1 ATS in AFC South road games; since ’14, Titans are 12-20-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points- they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as a road favorite.

Broncos (0-2) @ Packers (2-0)— Broncos lost first two games, outscored 20-3 in first half; Denver is only the 4th team in last 50 years to have no sacks or takeaways in their first two games. Since 2012, Broncos are 6-12 ATS as a road underdog. Denver has two TDs, six FG tries in first two games; they’ve scored only 27 points in seven trips to red zone. Green Bay won two division games to begin season, allowing two TD’s on 26 drives, but Packers have scored only one FG in second half- they didn’t score at all after 2nd drive of game LW. Packers are 21-12-2 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite. Home team is 11-1-1 in this series; Denver lost last four visits here, with three losses by 26+ points.

Lions (1-0-1) @ Eagles (1-1)— Detroit blew 24-6 4th quarter lead in tying its opener, then upset Chargers 13-10 LW, picking off Rivers pass in end zone with 1:03 left. Since ’12, Lions are 16-20 ATS as road underdogs- they’re 8-12 in last 20 games as non-division road dogs. Eagles split their first two games, giving up 8.0/7.0 yards/pass attempt. Philly converted 20-35 third down plays- they trailed both games at halftime; Iggles won field position by 7-16 yards. Eagle opponents threw 88 passes, ran ball only 30 times in first two games. Philly covered twice in last nine games as a home favorite. Detroit won three of last four series games, but lost five of last six visits here (last here in ’13).

Ravens (2-0) @ Chiefs (2-0)— Baltimore won its first two games, running ball for 447 yards (QB Jackson ran for 120 yards vs Arizona LW); they’ve converted 14-25 on 3rd down, haven’t turned ball over (+3). Ravens are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog. Chiefs scored eight TD’s on 19 drives in their first two games, averaging 11.1/9.4 yds/pass attempt; they’ve had 15 plays already of 20+ yards. KC is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite; they covered only twice in last eight home openers. Chiefs won last two series games (34-14/27-24 OT) but Ravens won three of last four visits here.

Bengals (0-2) @ Bills (2-0)— Buffalo won four of last five series games, four of which were decided by 4 or fewer points. Cincy covered seven of last nine games as road underdogs; they lost first two games this year, scoring only 16 points in six trips to red zone. Bengals ran ball only 33 times, threw it 93 times in Taylor’s first two games as HC. Buffalo won its first two games, both in Swamp; Bills are 10-5-1 in last 16 games as a HF, but since ’05, Week 3 HF’s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS. Buffalo had decent balance in its first two games, running for 279 yards, throwing for 479, converting 10-23 on third down.

Falcons (1-1) @ Colts (1-1)— Colts split their first two road games, converting 14-27 third down plays, running ball for 370 yards; Brissett completed 69.1% of his passes, at 6.1 yards/attempt. Last two years, Indy is 5-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. Colts are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams. Atlanta split first two games, turning ball over six times (-3), running ball only 34 times while throwing 89 times. Falcons are 0-10 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC foes, 1-7 ATS in last eight games as road underdogs; Atlanta lost three of four visits here, winning last one 31-7 in 2011. Falcons are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games outside NFC South.

Raiders (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)— Minnesota covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents; they’re 20-5-1 ATS in last 26 games as a HF. Vikings ran ball for 370 yards in splitting first two games, but completed only 14-32 passes in loss at Lambeau LW. Oakland doesn’t play at home again until Nov 3; Raiders split two division home games, converting 16-28 on 3rd down. Last two years, Oakland is 3-12-1 ATS as road underdogs, 5-12-3 ATS overall outside AFC West- they’re 0-5 ATS in last five games on artificial turf. Oakland covered its last six road openers. Raiders won three of last four visits here; they’re 10-5 overall vs Vikings. Oakland gets G Incognito back from suspension, which helps their OL.

Jets (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)— Patriots won six in row, 14 of last 16 games vs NYJ, winning last eight meetings here, last three by total of 105-12. NE covered 12 of last 14 games as a home favorite; they won first two games this year by combined 76-3. Patriots covered 15 of last 18 games when laying double digits- they haven’t allowed a TD yet this year, giving up one FG on 22 drives. Falk gets first NFL start here; he was 20-25/198 in his NFL debut vs Cleveland Monday; he was a 3-year starter in Pac-12, throwing 119 TD’s, 39 INT’s in three years at Wazzu. Gang Green has one TD on 22 drives this year, converting 9-31 on third down. Jets are 6-12-2 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.

Dolphins (0-2) @ Cowboys (2-0)— Miami traded DB Fitzpatrick to Steelers Monday, as exodus of Dolphins’ good players continues. Miami was outscored 102-10 in first two games, just like the ’73 Saints, who rallied to finish year 5-9. Dolphins have seven turnovers (-6), 10 3/outs on 23 drives, and were outscored 47-0 in 2nd half of games. Cowboys have to avoid overconfidence after pair of NFC East wins; Dallas scored 35-31 points in first two games, converting 13-21 on third down, scoring nine TD’s on 17 drives. Miami covered its last four road openers; over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS. Dallas won last three series meetings, by 17-1-10 points; Miami is 5-3 SU in visits here.

Giants (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)— Rookie QB Jones gets first NFL start here; how he does is anyone’s guess. Giants have no takeaways yet (-4), allowed 12.7/7.2 yards/pass attempt in first two losses, by 18-14 points (NYG scored first in both games). Opponents have six TD’s on six trips to red zone. Big Blue covered eight of last nine games as a road dog outside the NFC East. Tampa Bay had extra rest after a Thursday win LW; since 2014, Buccaneers are 4-14 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last two meetings, that were decided by total of five points. Giants won six of last seven series games, winning three of last four visits here. Line jumped 2.5 points wth rookie Jones announced as Giants’ QB.

Panthers (0-2) @ Cardinals (0-1-1)— Cam Newton (foot) is a ??mark here; his backup is Kyle Allen, who won his only start 33-14 in Week 17 LY vs New Orleans (16-27/228 yards). Carolina is 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 road games; they won last three games vs Arizona but lost 28-21/22-6 in last two visits here- home side won last six series games. Cardinals were outscored 34-6 in first half in their two games (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS); they’re 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 home games. NFC West teams covered seven of first eight games this season; NFC South teams are 1-5 ATS outside their division. Over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS.

Steelers (0-2) @ 49ers (2-0)— Rudolph makes first NFL start; he was on Pitt’s bench LY, so he knows the system— he was a 3-year starter at Oklahoma State, was 12-19/112 vs Seattle LW, throwing two TD’s. Steeler defense gets boost, acquiring DB Fitzpatrick Monday; he’ll start here, but Pitt is 0-2 for first time since 2013 (started 0-4, ended up 8-8). Steelers covered five of last six tries as a road dog. 49ers opened with two road wins; they’re 4-11 ATS in last 15 tries as home favorites. Home side won last four series games; Steelers lost three of last four trips to SF. Niners covered seven of last nine games vs AFC teams. Since ’05, Week 3 HF’s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS.

Saints (1-1) @ Seahawks (2-0)— Brees has missed only three games since 2006, so this is huge change for Saints; Bridgewater was 17-11 starting for Minnesota in 2014-15- he was 17-30/165 in relief LW in 27-9 loss to Rams. NO is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog. How they adjust their offense with Brees out will be interesting to see; will they use #3 QB Hill and run the option a little? Saints ran ball for only 57 yards LW. Seahawks are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they’ve scored four TD’s in four trips to red zone this year. Seattle won three of last four series games; 2 of the 3 wins were in playoffs. Saints lost last three visits here, by 5-27-8 points. Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in its last 13 non-division games.

Texans (1-1) @ Chargers (1-1)— Houston split its first two games- they were decided by total of 3 points; Texans covered four of last five tries as a road underdog, are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Houston hasn’t allowed a first half TD yet; they converted 13 of 28 3rd down plays. Banged-up Chargers won opener in OT, then threw INT in end zone with 1:03 left in 13-10 loss at Detroit LW. Bolts are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite in Carson; they scored only 20 points in six visits to red zone this year. Chargers won five of last six series games; last meeting was in ’16. This is Texans’ first visit here since ’13. Texans covered seven of last nine as a road dog outside their division.

Rams (2-0) @ Browns (1-1)— LA won first two games, not allowing first half TD;; this is second week in row Rams are playing team coming off a Monday night win, third week in row Rams are favored by 3 or fewer points- they’re 6-7 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less. Under McVay, LA is 8-5 ATS as a road favorite. Cleveland split pair of routs to start season; they’re only 5-23 on 3rd down so far, but hit an 89-yard TD to Beckham Monday night. Browns are 7-15-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home underdog. Rams won four of last five series games, winning 26-20/13-12 in last two visits here (last here in ’11). NFC West teams were 7-1 ATS in Weeks 1-2.

Bears (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)— Chicago scored only one TD on 21 drives in its first two games, converting 6-26 on 3rd down; Bears got a 54-yard FG at the gun LW for its first win, temporarily ending their kicking dilemma. Last 5+ years, Bears are 3-4 as road favorites. Redskins allowed 32-31 points in losing pair of division games; they allowed 7.8/8.4 yards/pass attempt, giving up three TD plays of 50+ yards. Skins are 5-7 ATS in last dozen tries as a home underdog. Washington won last seven series games, with five of seven by 4 or fewer points. Bears lost last three visits here, by 2-8-5 points (last visit here in ’13). Skins covered nine of last 12 non-division games.

**Udog** · 09-18-2019, 11:52 AM

By: Josh Inglis

FOURNETTE-ME-NOT

The Houston Texans game-planned against Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette last week and almost got beat by rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. Look for the Tennessee Titans to take Minshew more seriously, allowing Fournette to get a little less attention and have better results than 87 yards on 19 touches.

The Jags RB has been a workhorse in the early season playing 115 of 125 snaps, taking 28 of 29 backfield carries and receiving 12 of 13 backfield targets. The pair of Minshew and Fournette will also have another week, although a short one, to familiarize themselves with each other.

We are going to take the Over on Fournette’s total yards (receiving and rushing) against a Titans team that surrendered 188 yards on 38 touches — 4.94 yards per touch — to Indianapolis running backs last week. We’re comfortable taking the Over on any number below 110 yards (rushing yards total at 70.5 O/U) as we look for Fournette to have his best game to date in 2019.

KANSAS WITH WOLVES

Start off the week off with an easy, non-prop wager that should be locked in sooner rather than later. There’s a lot of value in taking early lines and if you are looking for some help in the early week, check out Covers’ weekly Opening Line Report podcast as well as Bet Now/Bet Later. Just two more useful tools to add to your repertoire.

The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs matchup is the biggest game of the week. The must-see tilt will showcase two of the league’s top early MVP candidates in Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (+250) and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (+1600).

The Chiefs opened as 5.5-point favorites and that number moved quickly up to 6.5 and up to 7 on some books. If you think it’s a good spot to take the Ravens (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) by nearly a touchdown you may want to rethink that.

A big indicator is the quality of opponent faced this year. There is a lot of buzz about Baltimore but keep in mind that they beat the Dolphins — barely counts as a win — and struggled to put away a rookie quarterback and head coach in Arizona.

Baltimore allowed Kyler Murray to pass for 349 yards and look susceptible in the secondary. This doesn’t bode well for the Ravens as the Chiefs sport a league-best 403 passing yards per game - 63 yards better than second place.

Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking as the Ravens will be walking into the Chiefs’ home opener. We are going to get on the Chiefs at -6.5 now rather than later.

DRAWN AND QUARTERED

With everyone likely tuning into the Ravens and Chiefs for their 1 p.m. ET pleasure, here’s another prop that will impress your fellow watchers as you awkwardly fist pump what could be a meaningless field goal.

The Chiefs got blanked in the second half in Oakland last week, but that was after four TDs in the second quarter and a three-score lead. Kansas City will have to keep its foot on the accelerator this Sunday as they know that the Baltimore offense can put up points in a hurry.

Assuming the Chiefs will not slow their offensive juggernaut down, jump on Kansas City Chiefs to score every quarter (+120). Baltimore allowed the Cardinals to score in every quarter last week and it will only be more difficult at Arrowhead this Sunday.

KICKING WITH CONFIDENCE

Eddy “The Haberno” Piñeiro is the darling of Chicago after last week’s 53-yard, game-winning kick in Denver. The kicker made all three of his attempts in the thin air and is 4 for 4 to start the year.

As the title suggests, Piñeiro will be kicking with confidence entering his Week 3 matchup versus the Washington Redskins, who have allowed over 900 yards to two very good offenses. Thankfully, the Chicago is not a good offense - not even close.

Expect Mitch Trubisky and the offense to sputter on Monday under the lights, leaving the rookie kicker to clean up the mess. We like two plays here and are 4-0 on kicking props to start the year. For the “Safe Sallys”, take Chicago first score method as a field goal (+110), and for the rest take Chicago Over 2.5 FGs (+225).

DOWN WITH THE DOLPHINS

The books have caught on to our “Fade the Fish” betting strategies (2-0 to start the year) as their Under 1.5 total TDs has plummeted to -175 after being -120 the last two weeks. We will be looking at a couple of first-half props instead, that may hold more value.

With the possibility of Dallas jumping out to a big lead early, the Cowboys may be inclined to rest some players in the second half. The Dallas defense has allowed one first-half TD in both of its games this year and will have a good chance of blanking the warm-blooded mammals at home. Miami managed to move the chains just twice in the first half last week while going three-and-out on four of five possessions in the first 30 minutes.

Dolphins head coach Brian Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Week 3 starter. Through two games, Fitzpatrick has a 27.3 percent uncatchable pass rate – good (well, not so good) for third-worst in the league. He also sits in last with a 50 percent completion rate and has a sub-40 passer rating. It must suck to be Josh Rosen.

The Under 0.5 first-half TDs is where we’re putting our money at -110. The Dolphins’ team total Under 6.5 (-110) is also something to consider as an alternative. Good luck with your Fins fades.

**Udog** · 09-18-2019, 12:10 PM

NFL Betting Trends through Week 2:

Road Teams: 21-10-1 ATS
Home Teams: 10-21-1 ATS

Favorites: 13-18-1 ATS
Underdogs: 18-13-1 ATS

Home Faves: 5-13-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 5-8 ATS

Road Faves: 8-5 ATS
Road Dogs: 13-5-1 ATS

Over/Under: 12-20

**Udog** · 09-18-2019, 10:30 PM

TNF - Titans at Jaguars
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

One week after the Titans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) blew out the Browns to open the season, Tennessee dropped its first game of 2019 in a 19-17 setback to Indianapolis. The Titans were flipped from a 5 ½-point road underdog at Cleveland to a three-point home favorite against the Colts. Tennessee failed to start 2-0 for the 11th straight season, while losing in Week 2 for the first time since 2015.

The Titans have allowed only 32 points in two games, which ranks sixth in the NFL, while yielding 288 yards to the Colts. However, Tennessee trailed at halftime, 13-7 before scoring 10 consecutive points to take a 17-13 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. Jacoby Brissett hit T.Y. Hilton on a four-yard touchdown strike to put the Colts ahead with under five minutes remaining to improve to 14-2 in the last 16 matchups with the Titans.

Marcus Mariota threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns in the season-opening blowout of the Browns, but racked up only 154 yards against Indianapolis. Derrick Henry eclipsed the 80-yard mark for the second consecutive week and reached the end zone for the second time in 2019, but not one Tennessee receiver compiled more than 39 yards receiving.

The Jaguars (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) faced their second opponent last week that is coming off a division title in 2018, but had an excellent opportunity to win. After trailing 13-3 in the fourth quarter at Houston, Jacksonville kicked a field goal then got within one point on rookie Gardner Minshew’s touchdown pass to D.J. Chark, Jr. in the final minute. The Jaguars elected to go for the two-point conversion and the win, but running back Leonard Fournette was stuffed at the goal-line and Jacksonville lost, 13-12.

Jacksonville managed the cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but the offense didn’t bust the 300-yard mark, while Minshew threw for 213 yards in his first professional start in place of the injured Nick Foles. Minshew actually rushed for more yards (56) than Fournette (47) on less attempts, while the Jaguars’ defense allowed one touchdown after yielding 40 points to Kansas City in Week 1.

The big drama surrounding the Jaguars has been the recent trade demand of Pro-Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The former Florida State standout wants out of Jacksonville in his fourth season with the Jaguars following a recent dustup with head coach Doug Marrone during the Houston loss. Jacksonville is off to an 0-2 start for the fifth time in eight seasons, but no team in the AFC South owns a 2-0 record.

AFC SOUTH BREAKDOWN

Only two weeks into the season and three of the four teams in the division have posted 1-1 records. The Colts, Titans, and Texans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. However, Jacksonville is the only team in this group to play two playoff teams from last season in its first two games. The schedule eases up the next six weeks as the Jaguars will face Denver and Carolina on the road (both winless through two weeks), host New Orleans without Drew Brees, travel to Cincinnati, and welcome in the Jets in Week 8 before three straight divisional matchups.

Tennessee plays seven straight non-division opponents after Thursday as the Titans head to Atlanta in Week 4 before hosting Buffalo in Week 5. The Titans face a pair of AFC West foes in Week 6 (Denver) and Week 7 (L.A. Chargers) before taking on the Buccaneers at home in Week 8 and at Carolina in Week 9.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Titans were favored on the road three times in 2018, as Tennessee put together a 1-2 SU/ATS record in those games. Tennessee lost at Miami and Buffalo, but the Titans cruised past the Giants in Week 15 with a 17-0 shutout of 2 ½-point favorites.

Since upsetting New England in Week 2 last season, the Jaguars own a 2-6 record in their last eight home contests (which includes a 24-18 defeat in London to the Eagles), while Jacksonville is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 opportunities in the underdog role.

SERIES HISTORY

Tennessee swept Jacksonville last season to extend its winning streak in the series to four games since 2017. The Titans limited the Jaguars to a total of 15 points in the two victories, starting with a 9-6 triumph as 10-point underdogs at TIAA Bank Field in Week 3. Neither team reached the end zone as Ryan Succop knocked down three field goals in the victory for Tennessee, while Mariota and Henry combined for 108 yards rushing.

The Titans cruised to a 30-9 blowout of the Jaguars at Nissan Stadium in December to easily cash as 5 ½-point favorites. Henry had his breakout game as a pro as the Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns, which included a 99-yard scamper in the second quarter. Jacksonville last beat Tennessee, 38-17 in Week 16 of the 2016 season as four-point home underdogs.

TOTAL TALK

Chris David, a weekly guest on the Bet and Collect Podcast, offered up his total notes for this particular matchup and he touches on the early trend that we’ve seen in primetime spots this season.

He explained, “Bettors playing the ‘under’ blindly in the night games have watched their bankroll grow with the low side going 6-1 through seven games. And the lone ‘over’ ticket in the Saints-Texans matchup was helped with 41 points in the second-half and 13 of those came in the final minute.”

For savvy bettors keeping track of halftime wagers, the ‘under’ has gone 7-0 in the night games. In the second-half of those same contests, we’ve seen more points but the ‘under’ still holds a 4-3 mark.

Even though this total is sitting in the high thirties, David noted that this series has leaned to the ‘over’ recently and an offensive outburst is possible.

“The high side has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series, which includes a split last season,” David noted. “Digging deeper, I looked at Mariota’s numbers versus the Jaguars in his career and he owns a 6-2 record in games that he’s started or played in. What’s eye-opening about those eight games is that every season, Mariota and the Titans have been hit or miss offensively. The team posted 30 and 9 in 2018 versus the Jaguars, 37 and 15 in 2017 before scoring 36 and 17 in 2016."

"Going back to his rookie year, the Titans scores 13 and 42. What offense shows up this week is obviously uncertain but this angle should be kept in your betting memory bank when the pair meet later in the season.”

Jacksonville will meet Tennessee in Week 12 at Nissan Stadium from Nashville.

Another notable trend to watch for Thursday is that Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight night games going back to the 2016 season while Jacksonville is on a 3-0 ‘over’ run in primetime spots during the same span.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in this week on this matchup as he looks how Jacksonville can exploit Tennessee’s defense, “As expected, Tennessee has good defensive numbers allowing 5.0 yards per play (9th in the NFL), but surprisingly the Titans have struggled against the run by giving up 5.0 yards per rush to offset very strong pass defense numbers. Jacksonville’s defense has been vulnerable against the pass through two weeks, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt (25th in the NFL) while performing better against the run. Having to play Kansas City in Week 1 certainly weighs on the numbers for the Jaguars who could still project as one of the better defensive teams in the AFC.”

From Jacksonville’s standpoint with Minshew making his second start, Nelson points out his numbers haven’t been bad, but the Jags need to score more, “Minshew has been more than adequate with nearly 78 percent completions and 8.4 yards per attempt and just one interception while also offering some mobility but ultimately the Jaguars have only scored 38 points in two games. Last season, six of the team’s 11 losses came by six or fewer points and the Jaguars had two SU wins vs. playoff teams at home.”

FIRST HALF/SECOND HALF BETS

After the Chiefs covered both the first and second halves in the season opener, the Jaguars rebounded by covering each half in the Texans’ loss. The Titans have covered in three of four halves this season with first and second half wins at Cleveland, while cashing in the second half against Indianapolis last Sunday.

Tennessee has hit the ‘under’ in three of four halves, with the lone ‘over’ cashing in the second half of the Cleveland game. Jacksonville saw the ‘over’ cash in each half of the Kansas City loss, but the ‘under’ connected in both halves of the Houston defeat.

LINE MOVEMENT

When CG Technologies released their weekly odds in June for every game in the NFL season (for the exception of Week 17), the Jaguars were listed as a three-point favorite against the Titans. Fast-forward to now and Tennessee is listed as a 1 ½-point favorite at CG Technologies. The total has dipped to 39, as the ‘under’ has cashed in six of seven primetime games this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2019, 07:55 PM

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TEN at JAC 08:20 PM

JAC +1.5

O 38.0

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2019, 01:03 AM

Minshew, defense shine as Jaguars thump Titans 20-7
September 19, 2019
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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) Gardner Minshew threw two touchdown passes and should have had a third, Calais Campbell spearheaded another defensive gem and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans 20-7 in sloppy conditions Thursday night.

Jacksonville (1-2) ended a four-game losing streak in the AFC South series and avoided the franchise's second 0-3 start in four years.

Minshew Mania, meanwhile, picked up momentum.

With all eyes on star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who may have played his final game for Jacksonville, Minshew and a second straight stellar defensive outing captured the spotlight.

A sixth-round draft pick starting his second consecutive game in place of injured Nick Foles (broken collarbone), Minshew completed 20 of 30 passes for 204 yards. He found James O'Shaughnessy wide open for a 7-yard score, which came one play after Adoree' Jackson's muffed punt. Minshew was more precise with a 22-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark, who was blanketed by Malcolm Butler.

Jacksonville sacked Marcus Mariota nine times, including three by Campbell.

One of his came on a highly questionable fourth-down attempt. Titans coach Mike Vrabel, with his team trailing 14-0 early in the third, passed on a short field goal and went for it on fourth-and-6 at the 11.

Campbell abused backup guard Jamil Douglas, and Mariota had no time to get rid of the ball.

The Titans (1-2) finally got on the scoreboard with Derrick Henry's 1-yard plunge early in the fourth. Henry finished with 44 yards on 17 carries, a far cry from his last game against Jacksonville. Henry ran for a franchise-record 238 yards and four touchdowns, including the second 99-yard run in NFL history (Tony Dorsett, 1983), in December.

Jacksonville wasn't going to let it happen again, stacking the box and doing a much better job tackling the 247-pound back.

Even Ramsey got in a couple of shots on the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner.

Ramsey stunned the franchise by requesting a trade four days earlier, wanting out after his sideline exchange with coach Doug Marrone. Ramsey told the Uninterrupted ''17 Weeks'' podcast that ''some disrespectful things were said on their end'' in a meeting after that game.

Ramsey insisted he didn't want to be a distraction. And clearly he wasn't, at least not on the field.

The Jaguars enjoyed a 14-point lead in the first quarter for the first time since Week 2 of last season against New England and just the third time in the last five seasons.

The officiating was roundly ripped - in the stands and around the country. The most notable: Titans linebacker Kamalei Correa was questionably flagged for roughing the passer in the second quarter, and Tennessee cornerback Logan Ryan was called for pass interference after barely touching Dede Westbrook.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady tweeted, ''Too many penalties. Just let us play!!!!'' He followed that tweet without another one a few minutes later, saying "I'm turning off this game I can't watch these ridiculous penalties anymore.''

Suspended Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan later added, ''Wow, who would have thought that the refs would mess up so many calls?''

CHAMP VISITS

Former heavyweight champ Mike Tyson was in attendance and wearing a No. 1 Jaguars jersey with ''Tyson Ranch'' on the back.

Tyson was on the sideline before kickoff, joined by a nearly 20-person entourage, and watched the game from owner Shad Khan's suite.

Tyson Ranch is an extension of Tyson's existing cannabis brand portfolio called Tyson Holistic Holdings.

GIBBS & COUGHLIN

Pro Football Hall of Fame coach and current NASCAR team owner Joe Gibbs visited with Jaguars executive Tom Coughlin before the game.

Gibbs was in town to speak at a ''Faith, Family, & Football'' event at Daily's Place next to TIAA Bank Field. Gibbs' spoke about the ''ultimate game plan he follows.''

INJURIES

Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack took a knee to the helmet in the third quarter, was later ruled out and placed in the concussion protocol. ... Jaguars receiver Chris Conley sprained his left ankle while blocking in the second, but later returned. ... Titans linebacker Rashaan Evans injured his left shoulder just before halftime, returned in the second half and then left the field again in the fourth. ... Titans linebacker Sharif Finch injured his right ankle in the third.

DEDE DROPS

Jaguars receiver Dede Westbrook dropped a would-be touchdown in the third quarter, and Jacksonville had to settle for a 40-yard field goal and a 17-0 lead. It was Westbrook's third drop of the night.

UP NEXT

The Titans play at Atlanta. Tennessee has dropped the last two meetings.

The Jaguars play at Denver. Jacksonville has dropped the last two meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2019, 01:11 AM

Sunday, September 22, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins Dallas Cowboys
1:00 PM Denver Broncos Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM New York Jets New England Patriots
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Philadelphia Eagles
4:05 PM Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals
4:05 PM New York Giants Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:25 PM Houston Texans Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM New Orleans Saints Seattle Seahawks
8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Cleveland Browns

Monday, September 23, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Chicago Bears Washington Redskins

*******************************

NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/19/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1...........57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0...........75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0..........61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0........... 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............37-27-1........ 57.81%.......... +36.50

*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................14 - 12............+4.00.............19 - 9 ............+45.50.............+49.50

**Udog** · 09-20-2019, 11:59 AM

By: Josh Inglis

I WAS BORN A SCRAMBLING MAN

Daniel Jones will take control of the Giants offense this Sunday in Tampa Bay. Mr. Jones will have the services of receiver Sterling Shepard after the wideout cleared concussion protocol this week. It couldn’t have come at a better time as the Buccaneers actually have the league's best DVOA rushing defense — allowing 2.7 yards per carry to opposing backs.

There is no doubt that Jones will be asked to throw a lot, especially if the G-men fall behind. If you think this is the part where we tell you to play the Over on his passing yards, you are mistaken.

We are expecting the rookie to have trouble going through his progressions and tuck and run. At Duke, Jones rushed the ball over 400 times in 36 games and accumulated more than 1300 yards, so we know the first-rounder is familiar with scrambling. It may be a hard market to find, but we are going to seek and destroy the Over on any total below 16-20 rushing yards.

FREEMAN DAYS

The Indianapolis Colts may be without their defensive captain and All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. The 2018 league leader in tackles is still in concussion protocol and is in danger of missing Sunday’s game versus the Atlanta Falcons.

This is great news for Falcons back Devonta Freeman. Freeman hasn’t done much on the ground, averaging just 41 yards on 19 totes but has seen at least four targets in each game resulting in six catches for 54 yards. Freeman saw his snap count rise to over 60 percent last week and he will benefit the most by not having the game’s best linebacker on him in coverage.

Take the Over 2.5 receptions for Freeman and if the line rises closer to kickoff and you miss the 2.5, feel safe grabbing the 3.5 as well.

THE END OF A LEGEND

Adam Vinatieri deserves a lot of respect for what he has accomplished in his 24-year NFL career. Perhaps that’s why the Indianapolis Colts kicker still has a job heading into Week 3 after beginning his 2019 season 1-for-3 while missing three-of-five extra points. The writing is on the wall as Indy held kicking tryouts for six different kickers earlier this week.

We don’t see a fairy-tale ending for Vinatieri and are going to fade him in a game that he probably knows could be his last NFL match. If the Colts don’t have faith in going for three, look for them to have a higher probability of going for it on 4th-down instead. Take the Colts Under 1.5 total field goals (+100).

ALLEN’S PASSING: TAKE THREE

Here is your weekly reminder that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is more than just a set of legs. Allen has eclipsed his passing totals in both games this year as his Week 1 and 2 totals were both set around 210 yards. This week will be tougher sledding with the O/U on Allen’s passing total set at 230.5 yards. Good thing for Allen and the Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming to town for the home opener as the Bills look to go 3-0.

The Bengals are averaging more passing yards per game than the Dallas Cowboys, meaning that Cincy won’t roll over and die, keeping Allen in passing mode. Things aren’t as pretty on the other side of the ball for the Bengals as they are third-worst in total defensive DVOA. We are looking to make it 3-0 on the Over on Allen's passing yard and taking the Over 230.5 as the Bills QB has surpassed 250 yards in both games this year.

BRIDGE IS OUT

We are throwing a first-time prop bet for anyone looking to cheer three-and-outs — there are dozens of us!

Teddy Bridgewater will have nearly a full week to prepare for his first start in a meaningful game since January 2016. The New Orleans Saints new No. 1 QB did not look impressive last Sunday versus the Rams and it wouldn’t surprise us if No. 3 Taysom Hill sees a handful of plays under center.

Game Planning against Teddy & Co. are the Seattle Seahawks who will welcome the Saints to the loudest stadium in the league. The Seahawks have a sneaky good defense as they sit in the top-half in total defense DVOA — 13th in the pass and 9th in the run. The Saints also don’t match up well against the run-heavy Hawks as NO has the worst-ranked DVOA run defense and will be without starting linebacker Alex Anzalone.

With wind and rain in the forecast, we expect Bridgwater to struggle to move the offense in a tough environment. Take the Saints as the team with most punts (-125)

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2019, 04:23 AM

Saturday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 3 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1.5 (674)

5) Ravens +6.5 (794)

4) Steelers +6.5 (934)

3) Lions +6 (937)

2) Seahawks -4 (974)

1) Rams -3 (1,474)

2019 record: 7-5

Quote of the Day
“Life is too short to bet the under.”
ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt

Sunday’s quiz
Who was the football coach at UCLA before Chip Kelly?
(Hint: He used to coach in the NFL)

Saturday’s quiz
Memphis basketball coach Anfernee (Penny) Hardaway played a point guard for fictional Western U in the great basketball movie Blue Chips.

Friday’s quiz
Since 1970, Walter Payton is the only NFL running back that THREW two TD passes in the same game, in a 1983 game against New Orleans.

***************************

Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

13) UCLA 67, Washington State 63:
— This amazing game ended at 2:27am here in the east.
— With 4:00 left in third quarter, Wazzu led 49-17; UCLA then scored 29 points in the next 7:24
— Bruins had a 100-yard kick return and a 69-yard punt return for TD’s.
— Both quarterbacks threw for 500+ yards.

— UCLA scored 50 points in the second half; Fifty!!!
— Coogs turned ball over six times (-5).
— Total yardage was 720-657, WSU.
— Wazzu QB Gordon threw nine TD passes, and his team still lost.

12) Toledo 41, Colorado State 35— At 2:34am, Colorado State’s receiver caught a pass on 2-yard line but was stopped on the 1-yard line. Solid late night entertainment this week.

11) LSU 66, Vanderbilt 38— The most important new name in college football this season may wind up being Joe Brady, who is LSU’s passing game coordinator and receivers coach.

Brady came to LSU from the New Orleans Saints, where he worked the last two years; he has brought the Tigers’ offense into the 21st century, and he may wind up making QB Joe Burrow a very wealthy young man when the NFL Draft rolls around next April.

Burrow was 25-34/398 yards passing with six TD’s Saturday in Nashville; at one time a few years ago, he was the 3rd-string QB at Ohio State.

10) Wisconsin 35, Michigan 14:
— Rushing yardage: 359-40, Wisconsin
— Wolverines were minus-4 in turnovers, 0-10 on third down
— Michigan completed only 17 of 42 passes.

Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is:
— 1-3 in bowl games.
— 0-4 vs Ohio State (lost 62-39 LY).
— 2-2 vs Wisconsin.
— 2-4 vs spread as an underdog.

I’m guessing the natives are restless in Ann Arbor.

9) California 28, Ole Miss 20— Rebels got hosed by the replay official, who neglected to call for a replay review of a possible touchdown of their 3rd down play that may/may not have been a TD that could’ve tied the game in the last 0:10. Bad officiating.

Last nine Pac-12-SEC games, the SEC teams are 7-2 vs spread, but both the Pac-12’s covers were by Cal over Ole Miss.

8) Appalachian State 34, North Carolina 31— Tar Heels outgained ASU 469-385, but were minus-2 in turnovers— App State scored a defensive TD. UNC is now 2-2, with all four games decided by six or fewer points.

7) Upsets of the Week:
— San Jose State (+20.5) 31, Arkansas 24
— UCLA (+18.5) 67, Washington State 63
— Buffalo (+14) 38, Temple 22
— Pitt (+12.5) 35, UCF 34
— SMU (+9.5) 41, TCU 38

6) I-A teams who almost lost to a I-AA team:
— Eastern Michigan 34, Central Connecticut 29— EMU blocked a punt for a TD with 0:10 left, avoiding a horrendous loss after they upset Illinois last week.

5) Pittsburgh 35, UCF 34— Panthers scored on a “Philly Special” 4th down trick play with 0:56 left to hand the Golden Knights their first loss of the season. UCF had won its previous 27 regular season games; they rallied back from down 21-0 in this game, but couldn’t hang on.

4) Washington 45, BYU 19— BYU needs to get into a league; their schedule is stupid:

First 4 games: Utah, @ Tennessee, USC, Washington.
Next 8 games: @ Toledo, @ USF, Boise St, @ Utah St, Liberty, Idaho St, UMass, @ San Diego St.

Not a very well-balanced schedule. Most schools spread out their more attractive games.

3) USC 30, Utah 23— Trojans’ 3rd-string QB Matt Fink was 21-30/351 passing; USC has really good receivers, but they’re running out of quarterbacks.

2) Nebraska 42, Illinois 38- Illini led 35-21 with 3:00 left in third quarter, but couldn’t hold it.

— Total yardage: 671-299, Nebraska
— Illinois was +3 in turnovers (4-1).
— Illinois completed only 9-24 passes.
— Cornhuskers ran ball for 344 yards.

1) Scott Frost is the football coach at Nebraska; his brother Steve is the PA announcer at Stanford football games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2019, 04:25 AM

NFL Week 3

Broncos (0-2) @ Packers (2-0)— Broncos lost first two games, outscored 20-3 in first half; Denver is only the 4th team in last 50 years to have no sacks or takeaways in their first two games. Since 2012, Broncos are 6-12 ATS as a road underdog. Denver has two TDs, six FG tries in first two games; they’ve scored only 27 points in seven trips to red zone. Green Bay won two division games to begin season, allowing two TD’s on 26 drives, but Packers have scored only one FG in second half- they didn’t score at all after 2nd drive of game LW. Packers are 21-12-2 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite. Home team is 11-1-1 in this series; Denver lost last four visits here, with three losses by 26+ points.

Lions (1-0-1) @ Eagles (1-1)— Detroit blew 24-6 4th quarter lead in tying its opener, then upset Chargers 13-10 LW, picking off Rivers pass in end zone with 1:03 left. Since ’12, Lions are 16-20 ATS as road underdogs- they’re 8-12 in last 20 games as non-division road dogs. Eagles split their first two games, giving up 8.0/7.0 yards/pass attempt. Philly converted 20-35 third down plays- they trailed both games at halftime; Iggles won field position by 7-16 yards. Eagle opponents threw 88 passes, ran ball only 30 times in first two games. Philly covered twice in last nine games as a home favorite. Detroit won three of last four series games, but lost five of last six visits here (last here in ’13).

Ravens (2-0) @ Chiefs (2-0)— Baltimore won its first two games, running ball for 447 yards (QB Jackson ran for 120 yards vs Arizona LW); they’ve converted 14-25 on 3rd down, haven’t turned ball over (+3). Ravens are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog. Chiefs scored eight TD’s on 19 drives in their first two games, averaging 11.1/9.4 yds/pass attempt; they’ve had 15 plays already of 20+ yards. KC is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite; they covered only twice in last eight home openers. Chiefs won last two series games (34-14/27-24 OT) but Ravens won three of last four visits here. Mahomes threw for 377 yards in LY’s 27-24 OT win; total yardage was 441-321, KC.

Bengals (0-2) @ Bills (2-0)— Buffalo won four of last five series games, four of which were decided by 4 or fewer points. Cincy covered seven of last nine games as road underdogs; they lost first two games this year, scoring only 16 points in six trips to red zone. Bengals ran ball only 33 times, threw it 93 times in Taylor’s first two games as HC. Buffalo won its first two games, both in Swamp; Bills are 10-5-1 in last 16 games as a HF, but since ’05, Week 3 HF’s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS. Buffalo had decent balance in its first two games, running for 279 yards, throwing for 479, converting 10-23 on third down.

Falcons (1-1) @ Colts (1-1)— Colts split their first two road games, converting 14-27 third down plays, running ball for 370 yards; Brissett completed 69.1% of his passes, at 6.1 yards/attempt. Last two years, Indy is 5-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. Colts are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams. Atlanta split first two games, turning ball over six times (-3), running ball only 34 times while throwing 89 times. Falcons are 0-10 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC foes, 1-7 ATS in last eight games as road underdogs; Atlanta lost three of four visits here, winning last one 31-7 in 2011. Falcons are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games outside NFC South.

Raiders (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)— Minnesota covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents; they’re 20-5-1 ATS in last 26 games as a HF. Vikings ran ball for 370 yards in splitting first two games, but completed only 14-32 passes in loss at Lambeau LW. Oakland doesn’t play at home again until Nov 3; Raiders split two division home games, converting 16-28 on 3rd down. Last two years, Oakland is 3-12-1 ATS as road underdogs, 5-12-3 ATS overall outside AFC West- they’re 0-5 ATS in last five games on artificial turf. Oakland covered its last six road openers. Raiders won three of last four visits here; they’re 10-5 overall vs Vikings. Oakland gets G Incognito back from suspension, which helps their OL.

Jets (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)— Patriots won six in row, 14 of last 16 games vs NYJ, winning last eight meetings here, last three by total of 105-12. NE covered 12 of last 14 games as a home favorite; they won first two games this year by combined 76-3. Patriots covered 15 of last 18 games when laying double digits- they haven’t allowed a TD yet this year, giving up one FG on 22 drives. Falk gets first NFL start here; he was 20-25/198 in his NFL debut vs Cleveland Monday; he was a 3-year starter in Pac-12, throwing 119 TD’s, 39 INT’s in three years at Wazzu. Gang Green has one TD on 22 drives this year, converting 9-31 on third down. Jets are 6-12-2 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.

Dolphins (0-2) @ Cowboys (2-0)— Miami traded DB Fitzpatrick to Steelers Monday, as exodus of Dolphins’ good players continues. Miami was outscored 102-10 in first two games, just like the ’73 Saints, who rallied to finish year 5-9. Dolphins have seven turnovers (-6), 10 3/outs on 23 drives, and were outscored 47-0 in 2nd half of games. Cowboys have to avoid overconfidence after pair of NFC East wins; Dallas scored 35-31 points in first two games, converting 13-21 on third down, scoring nine TD’s on 17 drives. Miami covered its last four road openers; over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS. Dallas won last three series meetings, by 17-1-10 points; Miami is 5-3 SU in visits here.

Giants (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)— Rookie QB Jones gets first NFL start here; how he does is anyone’s guess. Giants have no takeaways yet (-4), allowed 12.7/7.2 yards/pass attempt in first two losses, by 18-14 points (NYG scored first in both games). Opponents have six TD’s on six trips to red zone. Big Blue covered eight of last nine games as a road dog outside the NFC East. Tampa Bay had extra rest after a Thursday win LW; since 2014, Buccaneers are 4-14 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last two meetings, that were decided by total of five points. Giants won six of last seven series games, winning three of last four visits here. Line jumped 2.5 points wth rookie Jones announced as Giants’ QB.

Panthers (0-2) @ Cardinals (0-1-1)— Cam Newton (foot) is out here; his backup is Kyle Allen, who won his only start 33-14 in Week 17 LY vs New Orleans (16-27/228 yards). Carolina is 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 road games; they won last three games vs Arizona but lost 28-21/22-6 in last two visits here- home side won last six series games. Cardinals were outscored 34-6 in first half in their two games (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS); they’re 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 home games. NFC West teams covered seven of first eight games this season; NFC South teams are 1-5 ATS outside their division. Over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS.

Steelers (0-2) @ 49ers (2-0)— Rudolph makes first NFL start; he was on Pitt’s bench LY, so he knows the system— he was a 3-year starter at Oklahoma State, was 12-19/112 vs Seattle LW, throwing two TD’s. Steeler defense gets boost, acquiring DB Fitzpatrick Monday; he’ll start here, but Pitt is 0-2 for first time since 2013 (started 0-4, ended up 8-8). Steelers covered five of last six tries as a road dog. 49ers opened with two road wins; they’re 4-11 ATS in last 15 tries as home favorites. Home side won last four series games; Steelers lost three of last four trips to SF. Niners covered seven of last nine games vs AFC teams. Since ’05, Week 3 HF’s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS.

Saints (1-1) @ Seahawks (2-0)— Brees has missed only three games since 2006, so this is huge change for Saints; Bridgewater was 17-11 starting for Minnesota in 2014-15- he was 17-30/165 in relief LW in 27-9 loss to Rams. NO is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog. How they adjust their offense with Brees out will be interesting to see; will they use #3 QB Hill and run the option a little? Saints ran ball for only 57 yards LW. Seahawks are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they’ve scored four TD’s in four trips to red zone this year. Seattle won three of last four series games; 2 of the 3 wins were in playoffs. Saints lost last three visits here, by 5-27-8 points. Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in its last 13 non-division games.

Texans (1-1) @ Chargers (1-1)— Houston split its first two games- they were decided by total of 3 points; Texans covered four of last five tries as a road underdog, are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Houston hasn’t allowed a first half TD yet; they converted 13 of 28 3rd down plays. Banged-up Chargers won opener in OT, then threw INT in end zone with 1:03 left in 13-10 loss at Detroit LW. Bolts are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite in Carson; they scored only 20 points in six visits to red zone this year. Chargers won five of last six series games; last meeting was in ’16. This is Texans’ first visit here since ’13. Texans covered seven of last nine as a road dog outside their division.

Rams (2-0) @ Browns (1-1)— LA won first two games, not allowing first half TD;; this is second week in row Rams are playing team coming off a Monday night win, third week in row Rams are favored by 3 or fewer points- they’re 6-7 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less. Under McVay, LA is 8-5 ATS as a road favorite. Cleveland split pair of routs to start season; they’re only 5-23 on 3rd down so far, but hit an 89-yard TD to Beckham Monday night. Browns are 7-15-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home underdog. Rams won four of last five series games, winning 26-20/13-12 in last two visits here (last here in ’11). NFC West teams were 7-1 ATS in Weeks 1-2.

Bears (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)— Chicago scored only one TD on 21 drives in its first two games, converting 6-26 on 3rd down; Bears got a 54-yard FG at the gun LW for its first win, temporarily ending their kicking dilemma. Last 5+ years, Bears are 3-4 as road favorites. Redskins allowed 32-31 points in losing pair of division games; they allowed 7.8/8.4 yards/pass attempt, giving up three TD plays of 50+ yards. Skins are 5-7 ATS in last dozen tries as a home underdog. Washington won last seven series games, with five of seven by 4 or fewer points. Bears lost last three visits here, by 2-8-5 points (last visit here in ’13). Skins covered nine of last 12 non-division games, won last six Monday night home games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2019, 04:27 AM

Sunday Blitz - Week 3
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens at Chiefs (-5 ½, 52) – 1:00 PM EST

Four AFC teams enter Week 3 with 2-0 records as two of those squads hook up at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has jumped out quickly in spite of beating Miami and Arizona, but quarterback Lamar Jackson has exploded for 596 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the two wins. After routing the Dolphins in the opener, the Ravens failed to cover as 13-point favorites in last Sunday’s 23-17 victory over the Cardinals. Baltimore covered in all three opportunities as a road underdog with Jackson starting in 2018, including outright victories over the Chargers and Falcons.

Kansas City (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) scored all 28 of its points in the second quarter of last Sunday’s 28-10 triumph at Oakland to cash as seven-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t dropped off since his MVP performance of 2018 by throwing for 443 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs didn’t put up a point in the second half at Oakland, but Kansas City improved to 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.

These teams played one of the top games in 2018 as the Chiefs held off the Ravens in overtime, 27-24 in Week 14. The third game in which Jackson and Baltimore covered in the road ‘dog role came at Arrowhead Stadium as 6 ½-point ‘dogs, while the Ravens rushed for nearly 200 yards. Mahomes posted 377 yards through the air, including the game-tying touchdown pass in the final minute. Kansas City closed last season by compiling a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite, including the AFC title game loss to New England.

Best Bet: Chiefs 31, Ravens 20

Saints at Seahawks (-4 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Several teams are down their starting quarterback in Week 3, including New Orleans (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS), who begins the next six-week stretch without Drew Brees. The future Hall-of-Famer sustained a thumb injury in a 27-9 setback to the Rams in an NFC championship rematch as two-point underdogs. Veteran backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for 165 yards in relief, but the Saints dropped to 0-7 ATS the last seven games (including playoffs) dating back to Week 15 of 2018.

The Seahawks (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off the Steelers as four-point road underdogs in Week 2 to pick up a rare September road win, 24-20. Seattle had failed to win its previous five road season openers, while posting an 0-5 ATS mark in the past five Week 2 contests. However, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks on four touchdown drives, including three touchdown passes. Seattle’s rushing offense was silenced in Week 1 against Cincinnati, but the Seahawks ran all over the Steelers’ defense for 151 yards.

Seattle has won 15 consecutive September home games dating back to 2010, while Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never lost an opening month contest at CenturyLink Field. The Saints are trying to avoid consecutive losses for the first time since dropping the first two games of the 2017 season. New Orleans has lost in its past three visits to the Pacific Northwest, but the Saints won the previous matchup in 2016 at the Superdome, 25-20.

Best Bet: Seahawks 21, Saints 16

Texans at Chargers (-3, 48 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Both Houston and Los Angeles reached the postseason in 2018, as the two squads look to take that next step towards the Super Bowl in 2019. The Texans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) rebounded from a last-minute heartbreaking loss to the Saints in Week 1 to edge the division rival Jaguars, 13-12 last Sunday. Houston failed to cash as 7 ½-point favorites even though the defense held Jacksonville out of the end zone for 59 minutes. The Jaguars crept to within one point with a touchdown in the final minute, but Houston stuffed Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette at the one-yard line on a two-point conversion to preserve the win.

The Chargers (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) staved off the Colts in overtime in the season opener, but couldn’t score points at crucial times in last Sunday’s 13-10 setback at Detroit. Los Angeles lost a fumble at the goal-line and missed a pair of field goals, while quarterback Philip Rivers was intercepted on the final drive as the Chargers equaled their road loss total from 2018 in the defeat to the Lions. The Lightning Bolts have started strong this season, but have scored a total of seven points in the third and fourth quarters in two games.

Los Angeles has put together a pedestrian 2-5-1 ATS mark in its last eight home contests, while only two of those victories came by seven points or more. Houston has drilled the OVER in four consecutive road games since last season, as the Texans have scored 28 points or more in the past three contests away from NRG Stadium. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in six meetings with the Texans since Houston entered the league in 2002, including a 21-13 victory in 2016 in the Lone Star State.

Best Bet: Texans 27, Chargers 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-1 this season)

Over 43 ½ - Bengals at Bills
Cincinnati was blown out last week at home by San Francisco, 41-17, as the Bengals look for a better performance. The Bills play their home opener following consecutive road wins over the Jets and Giants, as both offenses have been terrible this season. The Bengals have thrown the ball plenty in two weeks, as their running game has been horrific. Buffalo has hit the OVER in four of its last five home games, while Cincinnati is 5-2 to the OVER in its last seven road contests started by Andy Dalton.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Packers are in a tough scheduling spot this week following close wins over division foes Chicago and Minnesota. Green Bay welcomes in 0-2 Denver, who is off a tough last-second loss to the Bears last week. The Packers turn around Thursday to face off with Philadelphia at home in an NFC showdown as this non-conference affair Green Bay may not be as sharp for. Green Bay is listed as seven-point favorites, as the Packers compiled a 2-4 ATS mark in the role of home favorites of six points or more in 2018.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Carolina opened up as 2 ½-point road favorites at Arizona, but after the news came down on Friday that quarterback Cam Newton would sit out with a foot injury, the Cardinals flipped to a two-point favorite. The Panthers turn to Kyle Allen, who is making his second career start for Carolina, who owns an 8-4 ATS mark as a road underdog since 2016. The Cardinals failed to win in two opportunities as a favorite last season, while Arizona has allowed over 450 yards in each of its first two games.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Steelers turn to Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback for likely the rest of 2018 after Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending elbow injury in last week’s loss to Seattle. Pittsburgh has not won a road game without Big Ben as its starting quarterback since a 2015 Monday night victory over the Chargers on a last-second touchdown by Le’Veon Bell. Pittsburgh’s signal-caller that evening in San Diego was none other than Michael Vick.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2019, 04:28 AM

Total Talk - Week 3
Joe Williams

We're on our way to Week 3 of the National Football League season already. Time flies during football season, as the regular season is already 11.7 percent completed already.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 2 3-13 4-11-1 7-9

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 10-22 10-21-1 18-14

The under was an impressive 13-3 in Week 2, while hitting in 20 of 32 games (63.0 percent). Bettors banging first-half unders have also prospered this season to a 21-10-1 record while individuals chasing the high side in the second-half have managed to trim off some of their losses.

If we get a repeat of Week 3 in 2018, we'll get a lot more lower-scoring results as the under went 12-2-2 last season in Week 3.

Division Bell

The divisional battles saw the 'under' cash in six of seven battles, with only the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins (46 ½) going over the mark. Through two weeks divisional games have seen the 'under' connect in nine of 12 outings, and games involving the Cowboys and Redskins have each hit the 'over' in both weekends.

Divisional Game Results Week 2

Tampa Bay at Carolina Under (48) Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 14
Indianapolis at Tennessee Under (43.5) Indianapolis 19, Tennessee 17
New England at Miami Under (48.5) New England 43, Miami 0
Dallas at Washington Over (46.5) Dallas 31, Washington 21
Minnesota at Green Bay Under (43) Green Bay 21, Minnesota 16
Jacksonville at Houston Under (43) Houston 13, Jacksonville 12
Kansas City at Oakland Under (53) Kansas City 28, Oakland 10

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 as of Saturday morning.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 48 to 43
New Orleans at Seattle: 50 to 45
Detroit at Philadelphia: 49 ½ to 45 ½
Cincinnati at Buffalo: 40 ½ to 44
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: 51 to 47 ½
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: 46 ½ to 44

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

Carolina at Arizona: Over 85%
New Orleans at Seattle: Under 85%
Baltimore at Kansas City: Over 83%
Cincinnati at Buffalo: Over 80%
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: Under 77%
Atlanta at Indianapolis: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (76 percent) in the N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Chicago-Washington (68 percent) battle on Monday night.

Handicapping Week 3

Week 2 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-6
NFC vs. NFC 0-2
AFC vs. AFC 0-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-4

Week 3 is already off to a slow start, as the Tennessee-Jacksonville matchup on Thursday night was low scoring, as the 'under' is now 7-1 through eight primetime battles.

Taking a look at the only remaining divisional battle for Week 3, here are some important trends to note:

N.Y. Jets at New England: The Jets lost their starting quarterback Sam Darnold for Week 2, as he is dealing with a bout of mononucleosis. He is targeting Week 5 for a return. Backup QB Trevor Siemian was supposed to keep the seat warm until Darnold was ready, but QB Luke Falk was thrust into action when Siemian suffered torn ligaments and a season-ending ankle injury on Monday night. Now, it's Falk with newly signed QB David Fales as the backup. Wow.

Of course, the big news for the Patriots was the release of wide receiver Antonio Brown on Friday. As such, the total has been on the move in this game, going from an open of 48 to 43 ½ as of Saturday morning. The 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight games inside the AFC East for the Jets, while going 4-1 in the past five on the road against teams with a winning record. For the Patriots, the under is 7-1 in the past eight inside the division, including last week's lambasting of the Dolphins in Miami, 43-0. The under is also 11-3 in the past 14 overall for the Pats. In this series, the under has cashed in six in a row, too, with the Jets averaging just 9.8 PPG. They're starting their third-string QB, and third signal caller in three games, so don't expect much better production.

Other important AFC-NFC games with important trends to note:

Atlanta at Indianapolis: The Falcons are back on the road where they mustered just 12 points in Week 1 at Minnesota, and none of those points came until the fourth quarter. Atlanta has hit the under in nine of the past 13 games on the road, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games overall. However, the over is 6-0 in their past six battles in Week 3. For the Colts, they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games overall, while hitting in 15 of the past 21 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The under is also Colts will be playing their 2019 home debut after splitting the over/under in their first two games on the road.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco: The Steelers turn to backup QB Mason Rudolph after losing QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow surgery) for the season. The Steelers rank 28th in total offense with 284.5 yards per game, while ranking just 29th in rushing yards per contest (56.5). They're 29th in total defense, yielding 445.0 yards per game, 320.0 passing yards (29th) per game and 125.0 rushing yards (23rd) per game, while coughing up 30.5 points per game (28th).

The 49ers have been the opposite, rolling up 413.5 total yards per game to rank seventh, and they're fourth in rushing yards per game (178.5), while scoring 36.0 PPG to rank third in the NFL. This will be their home opener after winning and cover two games on the road. Their defense allowed just 73.0 rushing yards per game to rank eighth, and 17.0 PPG to check in seventh in the league.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 3, with two games listed with a spread of 21 or more. The totals are ranging from 43 to 47 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have hit the 'under' in eight of their past 10 on the road against NFC teams. While the Packers defense has looked good through the first two games, one of the games was against the struggling Bears offense, and the other was a home battle against the one-dimensional Vikings. Of course, the Broncos haven't exactly been a juggernaut to this point, so the good times should continue to roll for the Pack. As far as Denver's defense is concerned, they have an alarming ZERO sacks through the first two games.

The under is 6-0 in the past six games for the Broncos following a straight-up loss, and 5-0-1 in the past six following a cover in the following week. The under is also an impressive 19-6-1 in the past 26 for Denver. For the Pack, the under is 4-1 in the past five overall, and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up victory.

N.Y. Jets at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): In two games last season in this series, the Patriots won 38-3 in Week 7 in Foxboro to hit the 'under', and 27-13 at Met Life Stadium in Week 12, also an 'under'. For more information on this game, see above.

Miami at Dallas (1:00 p.m. ET): The 'under' has connected in each of Miami's past two games as a double-digit underdog. For the first time in NFL history, at least in a non-strike season, there are two teams listed as underdogs of 20 or more points in the same week. The Dolphins are also the biggest underdogs in their franchise history.

The Dolphins were blanked at home last week against the Patriots, and the over/under is 1-1 through their first two games. Miami has been outscored a whopping 102-10 so far. They turn to QB Drew Rosen for his first start in aqua and orange, and he will be making his eighth career road start. The Arizona Cardinals averaged 18.1 points per game with Rosen at the helm on the road. Miami has also allowed 35.4 points per game across their past seven road contests, so another over could be the rule.

For Dallas, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the past five games overall, and 7-2 in the past nine contests at home. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record.

The under is 29-14 in Miami's past 43 games on a field turf surface, while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road against a team with a winning home record. For the Cowboys, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 on a field turf surface, while going 10-2 in the past 12 at home against teams with a losing record and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win.

Oakland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have hit the under in 10 of the past 12 games at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, with just three teams scoring 20 or more points during the span - the Bills, Saints and Bears. The under is 8-1 in their past nine games on a field turf surface, too, while hitting in four straight overall. The under is 5-1 in their past six following a straight-up loss, and 4-1 in the past five after a non-cover.

The Raiders have hit the under in five of their past seven games in the month of September. The under is 18-7-1 in the past 26 games overall, while going 8-2 in their past 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, the under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games on the road. One thing which gives under bettors pause, however, is that Oakland has the league's worst pass defense, allowing 352.0 yards per game, with 415.0 total yards per outing (27th in the NFL).

Under the Lights

L.A. Rams at Cleveland (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Rams head to FirstEnergy Stadium for the first SNF game in Cleveland since 2008. The under has cashed in four of the past five games on the road for the defending NFC champions, while the over has cashed in seven of their past 10 games in the month of September. For the Browns, the under is 15-6-1 in the past 22 home games, although the over cashed in their home opener in Week 1, a 43-13 setback against the Titans. The under is 4-1 in Cleveland's past five games when playing on a Sunday after a Monday Night contest.

Chicago at Washington (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): In the Monday nighter, the Bears and 'Skins tussle in D.C. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Chicago's past seven overall, 6-0 in their past six against NFC opponents and 5-1 in their past six appearances on MNF. In addition, the under is 4-1 in their past five against teams with a losing overall record, 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a non-cover in their previous game. As far as the 'Skins are concerned, the over has cashed in four of their past five games overall. However, the under is 7-3 in the past 10 after a non-cover, while going 6-1 in the past seven after allowing 30 or more points in their previous outing. The under is also 8-1 in the past nine when Washington allowed 150 or more rushing yards in their previous contest.

And remember, going into Sunday's Rams-Browns tilt, the under is 7-1 so far through eight primetime games. For bettors playing more than just the game total, make a note that the first-half under is 8-0 in games played under the lights while the low side is 5-3 in the second-half.

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Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

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