Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

ND at KC 08:20 PM

IND +10.5

U 55.5

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Ravens 26, Steelers 23 OT:
— Ravens tied game on a FG with 0:10 left, won it on a FG in OT.
— Lamar Jackson’s passing numbers were ordinary, but he also ran for 70 yards.
— Ravens’ first 3 drives: 27 plays, 140 yards, 17 points.
Baltimore’s last 9 drives: 50 plays, 144 yards, 9 points.

— Pitt QB Rudolph got knocked out; rookie Hodges was 7-9/68 in his NFL debut.
— Steelers started 3 drives in Raven territory: FG-FG-FG.
— Pitt still hasn’t run the ball for more than 81 yards in a game this year; they’ve converted only 15-53 third down plays.

Raiders 24, Bears 21:
— Oakland led 17-0 at the half, needed a 97-yard TD drive to win, scoring GW TD with 1:57 left.
— Total yardage was 398-236 Raiders; they lost a fumble on the Bears’ 1-yard line.
— Raiders are now 10-17-2 ATS in last 29 games as a underdog.

— Chicago’s 1st five drives: 19 plays, 29 yards, zero points.
— Chicago’s last five drives: 29 plays, 204 yards, 21 points.
— Bears flew to England Friday, Raiders on Sunday nite; did that matter?

Cardinals 26, Bengals 23:
— Arizona gained 514 yards: 266 running, 248 throwing.
— Murray threw for 253 yards, ran for 93 more; he is this generation’s Michael Vick.
— Cardinals drove 62 yards in six plays, kicked GW 31-yard FG at the gun.

— Bengals trailed 23-9 with 5:00 left, tied game with 2:00 left on a 42-yard pass.
— Last four games, Cincy has been outscored 61-19 in first half.
— Bengals are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

Panthers 34, Jaguars 27:
— Jaguars gained 507 yards but lost, losing three fumbles (-3 TO’s)
— Minshew threw for 374 yards, averaged 7.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Jaguars’ last five drives: 40 plays, 264 yards, but only 10 points.

— McCaffrey had 25 touches for 237 yards, three TD’s.
— Carolina is 3-0 with Kyle Allen starting QB; what happens when Newton gets healthy?
— Panthers scored a defensive TD early in 2nd quarter to go ahead, 21-7.

Vikings 28, Giants 10:
— Minnesota scored two TD’s, four FG’s; they punted once.
— Vikings ran ball for 211 yards, outgained Giants 490-211.
— Minnesota is 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.

— Giants covered once in their last eight games as a home underdog.
— Big Blue was 8-16 on 3rd down, are 22-42 in Jones’ three starts.
— Vikings had 12 penalties for 112 yards; Giants five for 45.

Patriots 33, Redskins 7:
— New England has allowed two TD’s on 61 drives; four of their five wins are by 16+ points.
— Patriots held Washington to 75 passing yards.
— Over last 20 years. favorites are 6-2 ATS in Week 5 games if an unbeaten team plays a winless team.

— Redskins had a 65-yard TD run, gained 155 yards on their other 52 plays.
— Washington converted once on their 11 third down plays.
— Last three games, Redskins were outscored 57-13 in the first half.

Eagles 31, Jets 6:
— Jets are 7-13-2 ATS in last 22 games as a road dog, 1-1 this year.
— When NYJ offense was on field, they were outscored 14-6 by Eagle defense.
— Jets lost nine of last 11 post-bye games (3-8 ATS).
— Jets are impossible to evaluate until Darnold gets healthy

— Eagles had ten sacks, held Jets to 1.7 yards/pass attempt.
— This was only 3rd cover for Philly in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Eagles are first team this year not to allow a play of 20+ yards in a game.

Saints 31, Buccaneers 24:
— Bucs were held to 252 TY, after they gained 499-464 the last two games.
— Fourth time in five games Tampa Bay allowed 31+ points.
— Winston was sacked six times, averaged only 4.8 yards/pass attempt.

— Saints outgained Bucs 457-252, averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt.
— NO is 13-21-1 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite.
— Saints are now 3-0 in Bridgewater’s starts.

Texans 53, Falcons 32:
— Scores like this get coaches fired; Falcons are 8-13 SU in their last 21 games.
— Atlanta actually led this game 17-16 at halftime.
— Falcons are 1-9 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog, 0-13 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.

— Fuller caught 14 balls for 217 yards, three TD’s; he was started in only 11% of ESPN fantasy leagues this week.
— Watson threw for 426 yards, averaged 12.9 yards/pass attempt.
— Houston scored 37 2nd half points, converted 10-13 3rd down plays.

Bills 14, Titans 7:
— Buffalo is 4-1, would be the #1 Wild Card if the playoffs started today (they don’t).
— Only second win for Bills in their last six visits to Nashville.
— Under McDermott, Buffalo is 9-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, 7-4-1 in games wth spread of 3 or fewer points.

— Tennessee was 0-4 on field goals, which was a problem.
— Mariota threw one TD pass that was called back; he ran over the line before he threw.
— Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite.

Broncos 20, Chargers 13:
— Denver’s first two drives: 12 plays, 156 yards, 14 points.
— Denver’s last nine drives: 45 plays, 164 yards, six points.
— Broncos held Chargers to 35 yards on 16 running plays.

— Chargers didn’t score an offensive TD; their only TD was a punt return.
— LA had ball in red zone four times, scored total of only three points.
— Chargers are 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite, 0-3 this year.

Packers 34, Cowboys 24:
— Green Bay led this game 31-3 in third quarter, then hung on for dear life.
— Packers won both their road games, quality wins at Chicago/Dallas.
— Green Bay won eight of last nine series games, winning last four visits here, scoring 34+ points in all four games.

— Dallas outgained Packers 563-335, but was -3 (0-3) in turnovers.
— Prescott threw for 463 yards; Cooper caught 11 balls for 226 yards.
— Dallas is still 5-3-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite.

Colts 19, Chiefs 13
— Indy ran ball for 180 yards, ran 74 plays, to 57 for Chiefs.
— Colts covered six of last eight games as a road underdog.
— Colts have now won eight of last ten visits to Arrowhead.

— Chiefs ran the ball for only 36 yards on 14 carries.
— KC’s last seven drives: 35 plays, 150 yards, three points.
— Mahomes tweaked his ankle, was hobbling in the second half.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, October 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cleveland Browns San Francisco 49ers


**************************************


NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............75-67-1.......... 52.81%............ +6.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS



10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50...............6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................31 - 34............-26.50.............35 - 26 ...........+32.00............+5.50

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 5 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Ravens -3 (757)- T

5) Packers +3.5 (781)- W

4) Patriots +15.5 (783)- W

3) Buccaneers +3.5 (800)- L

2) Vikings -5.5 (951)- W

1) Bears -5.5 (1,299)- L

2019 record: 16-13-1


Quote of the Day
“No one’s told me anything. I don’t have a concern. If the key works Monday, keep working, go attack the Miami Dolphins and plan on getting our first win next week.”
Redskins’ coach Jay Gruden

RIP to the great comedian Rip Taylor, who passed away Sunday at age 84.

Monday’s quiz
Which two colleges did Russell Wilson play football for?

Sunday’s quiz
Tampa Bay Rays played the Phillies the one time they made the World Series.

Saturday’s quiz
Phil Mickelson is the only pro golfer ever to win $1M+ on the PGA Tour 20 years in a row.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Browns (2-2) at 49ers (3-0)
Date: October 07, 2019 8:15 PM EDT

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Three straight wins to open the season haven't erased all the doubts that four years of losing created for the San Francisco 49ers.

There was an ugly win over a perceived also-run in Tampa Bay, a blowout against overmatched Cincinnati and then a mistake-filled victory over Pittsburgh and backup quarterback Mason Rudolph.

Now the degree of difficulty starts to get much more difficult, starting with Monday night's home game against a Cleveland Browns team that has shown early signs of being a legitimate contender in the AFC North.

'A lot of people on this team don't get credit they deserve, so Monday we're going to showcase that,' 49ers receiver Marquise Goodwin said.

Skepticism surrounding the 49ers (3-0) and Browns (2-2) is warranted based on the recent history. The two franchises were the bottom two in the league over the previous four seasons, with Cleveland winning a league-low 11 games in that span and San Francisco not far ahead with only 17.

While a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and a vastly improved defense have transformed the 49ers, the Browns have been a bit more inconsistent this season alternating losses with wins.

But they are hoping last week's 40-25 win at Baltimore is a sign of how a star-studded roster led by second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield, dynamic playmakers Odell Beckham Jr. and Nick Chubb, and dominant force Myles Garrett can be different than past Browns teams.

'We came out with a big win this past weekend, and I feel that just the energy is different,' defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi said. 'You can tell the guys are really fully buying into what we have going on in here and know that everything we want is in front of us. We just have to keep working.'

Here are some other things to watch:

CHUBB-LE TROUBLE

Chubb's breakout game - and breakaway speed - helped the Browns snap out of their early season offensive funk and push past the Ravens last week. Chubb ran for 165 yards, 88 coming on a jaw-dropping touchdown run in which he was clocked at 21.95 mph, the fastest speed on a touchdown in the NFL this season.

The second-year back, who rushed for 996 yards as a rookie, could be Cleveland's best player. Coach Freddie Kitchens feels Chubb embodies everything the Browns are looking for.

'Every time the clock starts turning, you know what you are going to get from him,' Kitchens said. 'After all of that, you throw in his ability, his skillset, his desire inside within to be successful and his resilient nature and chasing being good. I do not know what else you want in a football player.'

ON AN ISLAND

The 49ers suffered a significant loss in their latest win with a foot injury that will sideline cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon for at least a month. Witherspoon had been one of the bright spots for San Francisco this season as he bounced back from a rough second year. His injury will likely force Emmanuel Moseley into the starting lineup for the first time in his career. The Niners typically don't have top cornerback Richard Sherman follow No. 1 receivers, meaning Cleveland could force Moseley to match up often with Beckham.

'I'm excited for him,' Sherman said. 'He's an unknown to these people. And he won't be after this game. I think it will be a positive experience.'

BECKHAM'S BLOCKING

Beckham came to Cleveland with a reputation as being selfish. Last week, he showed he's a team player. The Browns star made several key blocks last week in Baltimore, picking off or shielding defenders downfield on several long plays. The three-time Pro Bowler may be best known for his one-handed catches and fashion choices, but Kitchens said Beckham's willingness to do whatever's necessary is a sign that he's bought into Cleveland's program.

GO TO SKULE

The other major injury the 49ers are dealing with is at left tackle, where veteran Joe Staley will miss at least six weeks with a broken leg. Rookie Justin Skule held his own in his first start two weeks ago against Pittsburgh and Bud Dupree. But he will have a much tougher task this week against Garrett, the No. 1 overall pick in 2017 who has six sacks through four games.

ROAD TESTED

The Browns are 2-0 on the road for the first time since 1994, when they won their first three games outside Cleveland. That's an impressive jump for a team that didn't win any games - home or away - just two years ago. It's been a challenging start to the season for the Browns, who will be playing in their third prime-time game in five weeks.

'Anytime you leave Cleveland, it is difficult,' Kitchens said. 'You mentioned the length of travel, and that adds another piece of adversity. A Monday night game adds another piece of adversity - more attention. This team is doing a lot of things for the first time. I think they have handled it very well.'

ALL-AROUND THREAT

A few eyebrows were raised around the league in the 2017 offseason when the Niners gave fullback Kyle Juszczyk a $21 million, four-year contract in an era when many teams have gone away from two-back sets. But Juszczyk is a key part of coach Kyle Shanahan's offense, allowing him to dictate matchups. That was clearly the case in San Francisco's most recent game two weeks ago against Pittsburgh. He made a diving 27-yard catch, stiff-armed Minkah Fitzpatrick to the ground on a 22-yard catch and run, added one more short reception and strong run-blocking in a performance that garnered more attention than usual to a player who only touches the ball a handful of times a game.

'When he makes some plays like that in the pass game, I think he gets a little more credit and it's deserved,' Shanahan said.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 5
October 6, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Oct. 7

Cleveland at San Francisco, 8:15 p.m. EDT. Baker Mayfield and the Browns (2-2) are playing their third prime-time game already this season, going 1-1 so far with a win over the Jets and a loss to the Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first prime-time start, looking to lead the 49ers to their first 4-0 start since 1990.

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STARS

Passing

- Deshaun Watson, Texans, passed for a career-high 426 yards and tied his personal best with five touchdown passes, including three to Will Fuller to lead the Houston Texans to a 53-32 win over Atlanta.

- Teddy Bridgewater, Saints, had 314 yards passing and four touchdowns to help New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 31-24.

- Tom Brady, Patriots, threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns in New England's 33-7 rout of winless Washington and moved into third place on the NFL's career list for yards passing.

- Josh Allen, Bills, threw for 219 yards and two touchdowns as Buffalo beat Tennessee 14-7 and improved to 3-0 on the road to start a season for the first time since 1993.

- Matt Ryan, Falcons, had 330 yards passing with three touchdowns and one interception in a losing cause for Atlanta, which lost 53-32 at Houston.

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Rushing

- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, scored three touchdowns, including a franchise-record 84-yard run, and piled up 237 yards from scrimmage - including 176 yards on the ground - and Carolina topped Jacksonville 34-27.

- Aaron Jones, Packers, scored a career-high four touchdowns and finished with 107 yards rushing and 75 yards receiving on seven catches for a career-high 182 scrimmage yards in Green Bay's 34-24 victory over Dallas.

- Marlon Mack, Colts, ran for 132 yards on 29 carries in a 19-13 victory at Kansas City.

- Josh Jacobs, Raiders, ran for 123 yards and two touchdowns, including a leap from the 2-yard line with 1:57 to play that capped a 97-yard drive that helped Oakland rally after blowing a 17-point lead to beat Chicago 24-21 in London.

- Dalvin Cook, Vikings, rushed for 132 yards on 21 carries in Minnesota's 28-10 victory over the New York Giants.

- Phillip Lindsay, Broncos, ran for 114 yards and a touchdown in a 20-13 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

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Receiving

- Will Fuller, Texans, had a career-best 217 yards receiving on 14 catches and got into the end zone three time in Houston's 53-32 victory over Atlanta.

- Michael Thomas, Saints, caught 11 passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns in New Orleans' 31-24 win over Tampa Bay.

- D.J. Chark, Jaguars, had eight catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns in Jacksonville's 34-27 loss at Carolina.

- Adam Thielen, Vikings, caught two touchdown passes in Minnesota's 28-10 win over the New York Giants.

- Tyler Boyd, Bengals, had 10 receptions for 123 yards and a TD in Cincinnati's 26-23 loss to Arizona.

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Special Teams

- Zane Gonzalez, Cardinals, kicked a 31-yard field goal on the final play as Arizona got its first win under coach Kliff Kingsbury, 26-23 over Cincinnati.

- Justin Tucker, Ravens, made a 46-yard field goal in overtime to lift Baltimore past Pittsburgh 26-23.

- Desmond King, Chargers, returned a punt 68 yards for a touchdown in Los Angeles' 20-13 loss to Denver.

- Dan Bailey, Vikings, kicked field goals of 31, 48, 32 and 45 yards for Minnesota in a 28-10 road victory over the New York Giants.

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Defense

- Nate Gerry and Orlando Scandrick, Eagles. Gerry returned an interception 51 yards for a score and Scandrick took a strip-sack 44 yards for a TD in Philadelphia's 31-6 rout of the New York Jets.

- Marlon Humphrey, Ravens, stripped Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and recovered the fumble at the Pittsburgh 34 early in OT to help set up Justin Tucker's winning field goal in Baltimore's 26-23 victory.

- Jordan Phillips, Bills, had three sacks in Buffalo's 14-7 win at Tennessee.

- Anthony Barr, Vikings, tackled running back Jon Hilliman in the end zone for a safety in Minnesota's 28-10 win over the New York Giants.

- Brian Burns, Panthers, had a 56-yard fumble return for a touchdown to help Carolina top Jacksonville 34-27.

- Tashaun Gipson, Texans, returned an interception 79 yards for a touchdown in the final minute of Houston's 53-32 rout of Atlanta.

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MILESTONES

Tom Brady passed Brett Favre for third place on the NFL's career list with 71,923 yards passing. Brady now trails only Peyton Manning (71,940 yards) and Drew Brees (74,845). The New England quarterback also edged closer to Manning's record 539 touchdown passes, connecting with Julian Edelman, Brandon Bolden and Ryan Izzo in the Patriots' 33-7 win at Washington to bring his total to 527. ... Philadelphia running back/punt returner Darren Sproles moved past Tim Brown into fifth place on the NFL's all-time list for all-purpose yards. Brown had 19,682 yards. Jerry Rice is first with 23,546. ... Carolina's Ron Rivera passed John Fox for the most coaching wins in franchise history with 74. ... Atlanta's Matt Ryan joined Kurt Warner, Steve Young and Peyton Manning as the only players with at least 300 yards passing in each of their team's first five games of a season.

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STREAKS & STATS

Kansas City's record streak of 22 straight games scoring at least 26 points came to an end with a 19-13 loss to Indianapolis. ... New England had six sacks in its 33-7 win at Washington, marking the first time in franchise history the Patriots have four straight games with at least five sacks. The Patriots also completed a fifth consecutive game without allowing a touchdown pass, the first team to pull off that feat since the 1988 Cleveland Browns. ... The Jets went 12 straight quarters without an offensive touchdown before Vyncint Smith scored on an end-around in the third quarter of New York's 31-6 loss at Philadelphia. That was the longest streak in the league since the Titans went 14 straight quarters without an offensive TD in 2010. ... The Eagles improved to 11-0 against the Jets.

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STARTS

New England improved to 5-0 for the fifth time in franchise history, and only the second since 2007. ... Cincinnati is 0-5 for the first time since 2008, when it finished 4-11. It's the seventh time the Bengals have started 0-5 since 1990, the most in the NFL in that span. ... The Jets are 0-4 for the first time since 2003, when New York also dropped its first four games before finishing 6-10.

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SOARING EAGLES

Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to have 10 sacks and score two defensive touchdowns in a single game in its 31-6 win over the New York Jets. Nate Gerry returned an interception 51 yards for a score and Orlando Scandrick took a strip-sack 44 yards for a TD. It marked the first time the Eagles had a pick-6 and a fumble return TD since Buddy Ryan's defense did it on Nov. 12, 1990, against the Redskins. It's the third time they've done it in the Super Bowl era. Brandon Graham had three of the Eagles' 10 sacks.

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SCARY HIT

Mason Rudolph threw for 131 yards and a score in Pittsburgh's 26-23 overtime loss to Baltimore before suffering a concussion following a hit to the chin by Ravens safety Earl Thomas. Backup Devlin Hodges played admirably in Rudolph's place, throwing for 68 yards and directing a pair of scoring drives after Rudolph's exit. With the Ravens leading 17-13 in the third quarter, the Steelers were facing third-and-11 at the Pittsburgh 12 when Rudolph dropped back to pass. The play broke down and Rudolph scrambled to his left and stepped upfield. He flicked the ball to teammate James Washington just before the crown of Thomas' helmet hit Rudolph under the chin. Rudolph fell to the ground and lay on the field motionless for several minutes while several teammates became visibly upset as the stadium fell silent. Rudolph was able to stand up and be helped off the field by several teammates, a move made necessary when the medical cart wouldn't start.

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BIG MAC

Christian McCaffrey had 237 yards from scrimmage, including 176 yards on the ground, and three touchdowns before exiting Carolina's 34-27 win over Jacksonville with five minutes remaining due to leg cramps. McCaffrey, who had a franchise-record 84-yard touchdown run, had six catches for 61 yards. He's on pace for 2,771 yards from scrimmage, which would shatter the NFL single-season record of 2,509 yards set by Tennessee's Chris Johnson in 2009. McCaffrey has 587 yards rushing and 279 yards receiving, making him and Thurman Thomas (1991) the only players in NFL history to record at least 500 yards rushing and 250 yards receiving in their team's first five games.

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ELEMENTARY, WATSON

Deshaun Watson threw for a career-high 426 yards and his five touchdowns tied a personal best in a 53-32 win over Atlanta. He was 28 of 33 and became the first player to top 400 yards passing against the Falcons since Week 16 of 2012. It was the second-most points in franchise history behind the 57 they scored in a win over the Titans in 2017. Watson is also the first player in the NFL to throw for at least 400 yards and five touchdowns with five incompletions or fewer in a game.

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TOUCHDOWN TEDDY

Teddy Bridgewater passed for 314 yards and four touchdowns and New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 31-24 to keep their fill-in quarterback unbeaten in three starts this season. Bridgewater last eclipsed 300 yards passing as Minnesota's starter on Dec. 10, 2015, at Arizona - just weeks before a major knee injury sidelined him for nearly two full seasons. Bridgewater, 26 of 34 passing, is playing for the injured Drew Brees.

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BUFFALO STANCE

Josh Allen threw for 219 yards and two touchdowns as the Buffalo Bills beat the Tennessee Titans 14-7 Sunday in a defensive showdown for their third straight win in this series. The Bills (4-1) now have won three consecutive games away from Buffalo for the first time since 2004. It's also the first time they've started a season perfect through three road games since 1993.

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ROUGH DAY

Tennessee kicker Cairo Santos pulled his first field goal attempt wide left from 50 yards, tried to fix the issue and overcorrected, yanking his next attempt from 36 yards wide right. It only got worse for the Titans' replacement kicker in a 14-7 loss to Buffalo. After officials wiped a touchdown off the board for Marcus Mariota being over the line of scrimmage when he threw a pass to A.J. Brown, Santos lined up from 33 yards for the go-ahead field goal, only to have Darryl Johnson of the Bills block his kick. Coach Mike Vrabel sent Santos out for one last field goal - and Santos missed again, this time wide left from 53 yards. ''Never had a day like this,'' Santos said. ''Have been bouncing around with teams for years and just haven't had a performance like this.''

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UNBEATEN ALLEN

Carolina's Kyle Allen became the first undrafted quarterback to win his first four career NFL starts since Kurt Warner in 1999, beating Jacksonville 34-27. Allen, playing in place of the injured Cam Newton, went 17 of 30 for 181 yards with a touchdown in the Panthers' win. He's also the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to begin his career 4-0 without throwing an interception in his first four career starts.

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MURRAY IN A HURRY

Kyler Murray got the ball with 2:00 left and threw a 24-yard pass - perfect, right down the sideline - and scrambled 24 yards to get Arizona in position for its first win of the season, 26-23 over Cincinnati. ''I just looked at him and said, `This is what we drafted you for,''' Cardinals running back Chase Edmonds said of the No. 1 overall pick in April. Zane Gonzalez completed the drive with a 31-yard field goal on the final play, sealing the Cardinals' first win under coach Kliff Kingsbury. ''That's who he is,'' Kingsbury said of Murray. ''He doesn't blink. He just made plays with his arm and his legs.''

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GORDON'S RETURN

Melvin Gordon had 38 scrimmage yards, including 31 on the ground, in the Los Angeles Chargers' 20-13 loss to Denver, his first game back after a 64-day holdout due to a contract dispute. The Chargers got him involved quickly with a 4-yard screen pass on their first play. Gordon reported back on Sept. 26 and was activated prior to last week's game at Miami but did not play.

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SIDELINED

Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph left the game against Baltimore after suffering a concussion following a hit to the chin by Ravens safety Earl Thomas in the third quarter on Sunday. Rudolph limply fell to the ground and laid there with his eyes closed while medical personnel rushed to attend to him. Rudolph woozily made his way off the field and to a nearby hospital for further evaluation. ... The New York Giants have lost another running back. Wayne Gallman, who was starting for the injured Saquon Barkley, was knocked out of the game against the Minnesota Vikings with a concussion. ... Broncos cornerback De'Vante Bausby was strapped to a backboard and taken off the field on a cart during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers. He was injured when he collided with teammate Alexander Johnson while making a tackle on running back Austin Ekeler. Bausby was taken to a hospital and was reported to have movement in his arms and legs. Chargers center Mike Pouncey suffered a neck injury during the first half and did not return.

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SPEAKING

- ''No one's told me anything. I don't have a concern. If the key works Monday, keep working, go attack the Miami Dolphins and plan on getting our first win next week.'' - Washington's beleaguered coach Jay Gruden, whose Redskins fell to 0-5 with a 33-7 loss to New England.

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''When you see somebody lying lifeless like that it kind of strikes a bell. Any human being that cares about somebody in that type of situation will feel a certain way. ... When something like that happens, it makes a trigger go off in your brain and you've got to control yourself.'' - Pittsburgh linebacker Bud Dupree after quarterback Mason Rudolph was knocked out on a helmet hit by Baltimore's Earl Thomas in the Ravens' 26-23 overtime win.

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''You keep pulling from that thesaurus. There's a whole bunch of words you can use to describe the way he plays and the amount of energy he plays with.'' - Carolina coach Ron Rivera on running back Christian McCaffrey, who had 237 yards from scrimmage in the Panthers' 34-27 win over Jacksonville.

[StarDust Bum]

Books cheer result of London game
October 7, 2019
By Micah Roberts

The Cardinals and Broncos got their first wins of the season in Week 5 NFL action and coupled with the Colts Sunday night win at Kansas City there were six underdogs to win outright among the seven dogs that covered. But the main story of Sunday’s 13 games was the Bears losing to the Raiders in the first London game of the season.

“It’s funny, we were a small loser in Mississippi, but a small winner in Las Vegas,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. “The sharps were on the Bears laying -5.5, -6, and -7 helping make it our biggest decision of the day. We also did extremely well to the first half and halftime wagering on the game.”

Bettors hated the 2-2 Raiders and despite the Bears starting back-up QB Chase Daniel this week they also loved the stingy Bears defense we’ve been watching the first four weeks allowing only 11.2 points-per-game. Raiders win, 24-21.

“We won more games on the day than we lost, but dollar-wise the games we lost the most with were the Patriots and Vikings early and then the Broncos late,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso, who also noted the Bears were their best game on the day as well.

The Patriots had the biggest spread of the week laying -16.5 at winless Washington and after being down 7-0 the Patriots scored 33 unanswered points to win, 33-7, and cover easily. The Patriots were one of the biggest teaser liabilities of the week, as were the Vikings who won 28-10 at the Giants. The Vikings were bet by sharp money from -5 up to -6.

The Eagles (-14) had the second-largest spread of the week at the Jets and covered the number with a 31-6 win, and also kept several popular teasers alive with the Patriots and Chiefs, or at least those that hadn’t been expired with the Bears loss.

“Our three biggest decisions of the day were the Bears, Patriots, and Chiefs,” Stoneback said.“ The Bears decision was our biggest of the season so far.”

The effect of the sportsbooks big win in Week 4 was also seeing less action at the windows this week. Many bettors had to regroup with fewer funds in Week 5.

“We took six-figure wagers on the Bears, Chargers (-4.5 vs Broncos), Saints (-3 vs. Buccaneers) and Packers (+3 at Dallas), but overall handle was lighter than usual,” Stoneback said.

When there’s only two 1 pm PT games and both road underdogs win outright it gives the appearance of the books doing well, but that wasn’t necessarily the case in Week 5.

“We needed the Cowboys,” said William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “There was also no shortage of Broncos money straight money, either, but we won some parlays and teasers to the game.”

The Packers jumped out a 31-3 lead at Dallas (-3 -120) and held on for a 31-24 win while the Broncos ended an eight-game losing streak winning at the Chargers, 20-13, a game in Carson, CA that was basically a home game for the Broncos with all the orange shirts in the crowd. Ironically, both underdogs were up 17-0 at the half. Sharps bet the Broncos down from +6.5 down to +4.5 by kickoff.

“The game we should have won more on was the Saints covering,” said DiTomasso, who opened the game Saints -7 last week in the early lines and opened the Saints -4.5 last Sunday. “ We dropped all the way down to (Saints) -3 after taking lots of Bucs sharp action, but then got lots playback on the Saints at -3 to take us off a position I liked, but it wasn’t enough to justify going back to -3.5.”

The Saints came away with a 31-24 win, a game that didn’t seem that close despite the Buccaneers scoring the first TD of the game.

The Sunday night game with the Colts playing at Kansas City was a mixed decision around town with some books like Caesars Palace and William Hill books needing a Colts cover to win on the day, but for others, it wasn’t as big of a decision as the late game usually is.

“Despite taking a few sharp bets on the Colts at +11 and money-line wagers at +500 on them, we still need the Colts to win,” Stoneback said. “We’ll still win either way on the day if the Chiefs win.”

The Colts would dominate time of possession keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field to win 19-13. They dominated both sides of the ball giving most books a boost on the day.

“If the Colts win and the game stays under the total, we’ll double our win on the day,” DiTomasso said prior to kickoff.

On to Monday night action where sharp money has pushed the 49ers from 3.5-point home favorites up to -5.5 against the Browns

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 7
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at SF 08:15 PM

SF -5.0

U 47.5

[StarDust Bum]

49ers stay perfect, dominate Mayfield, Browns in 31-3 win
October 7, 2019
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SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Matt Breida ran 83 yards for a touchdown on San Francisco's first play from scrimmage, Baker Mayfield was harassed into his worst game as a pro, and the 49ers stayed unbeaten for their best start in nearly 30 years, beating the Cleveland Browns 31-3 on Monday night.

Tevin Coleman added a 19-yard score as part of a dominant ground game on a day when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 181 yards and kicker Robbie Gould missed a pair of field goal attempts and had a third try blocked.

San Francisco (4-0) joined the 5-0 New England Patriots as the only remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. It's the first time the 49ers have won their first four games since 1990.

The Browns (2-3) are headed the opposite direction after losing two of three, with fresh concerns about their young quarterback.

Mayfield had a horrible game. The No. 1 overall pick last year, Mayfiaeld completed 8 of 22 passes for a career-low 100 yards, had a 13.4 passer rating, threw two interceptions, fumbled twice and was sacked four times before being pulled in the fourth quarter.

It's the first time in Mayfield's 18 career starts that he failed to throw a touchdown pass.

Things were rough all around for Mayfield.

San Francisco defensive end Nick Bosa poked fun at the Browns quarterback after forcing Mayfield into a hurried incompletion in the second quarter. Bosa, the second overall draft pick, got up and pretended to wave a flag and plant it in the turf as the crowd roared. It was a clear shot at Mayfield, who planted an Oklahoma flag in the turf after leading the Sooners to win over Bosa and Ohio State in 2017.

San Francisco forced four turnovers overall.

The 49ers were coming off a bye and had two weeks to prepare, while the Browns flew cross country.

It showed.

Breida raced past the Browns front line and went untouched on his long touchdown run, waving to safety Demarious Randall as he sprinted into the end zone with the 49ers longest run of the season.

Fans at Levi's Stadium barely settled back into their seats when Richard Sherman picked off Mayfield near midfield, setting a rough tone for Cleveland's second-year quarterback.

Breida and Coleman combined for 211 rushing yards as San Francisco outgained Cleveland 275-102 on the ground.

That took pressure off Garoppolo, who passed for two touchdowns and completed 20 of 29 throws.

Garoppolo's 5-yard throw to Breida put the 49ers up 14-0 early in the first quarter. He later connected on a 22-yard pass to tight end George Kittle in the third that made it 28-3.

NOT THIS TIME EITHER

The 49ers defense is the only NFL team to not allow a rushing touchdown this season. Browns running back Nick Chubb had 87 yards on 16 carries but was a non-factor for most of the game, especially after Cleveland fell behind big.

BECKHAM OR BAKER

Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. threw a 20-yard completion to Jarvis Landry on Cleveland's first play. Beckham took a handoff from Mayfield for what initially looked like an end around before reversing direction then pulling up to pass. It's the third time in his career that Beckham has completed a pass, but the first time this season.

INJURIES

49ers: Fullback Kyle Juszczyk left the game with a possible left knee injury midway through the third quarter. Juszczyk, who had a pivotal block on Breida's long touchdown run, was taken to the medical tent and was later carted into the locker room.

UP NEXT

Browns: Return to Cleveland to host Seattle on Sunday before getting a week off for the bye.

49ers: Play at the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday in a key divisional matchup for both teams.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 6

Thursday, October 10, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM New York Giants New England Patriots

Sunday, October 13, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
9:30 AM Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM New Orleans Saints Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Houston Texans Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Philadelphia Eagles Minnesota Vikings
4:05 PM Atlanta Falcons Arizona Cardinals
4:05 PM San Francisco 49ers Los Angeles Rams
4:25 PM Tennessee Titans Denver Broncos
4:25 PM Dallas Cowboys New York Jets
8:20 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, October 14, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers


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NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............77-67-1.......... 53.47%............ +16.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50...............6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................32 - 34............-21.50.............36 - 26 ...........+37.00............+15.50

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Interesting spreads for this week’s college football:

— Oklahoma (-10) vs Texas

— Iowa State (-9.5) @ West Virginia

— Washington State @ Arizona State (-2.5)

— Washington (-5.5) @ Arizona

— Cincinnati (-7) @ Houston

— Penn State (-3.5) @ Iowa


Quote of the Day
“I thought he represented himself well. He gave us a chance. Gotta tip your cap to him. You’re talking about a guy who didn’t make our opening 53 and all of his things, we know his story. But you also got to acknowledge that he’s done some good things at every step along the way through the team developing process when given an opportunity and that’s why he’s in the position that he’s in and that’s probably why he made the positive showing as positive as he did today.”
Mike Tomlin, talking about his new QB, Devlin Hodges

Tuesday’s quiz
Which NFL team was the first to both win and lose a Super Bowl?

Monday’s quiz
Russell Wilson played college football for NC State, Wisconsin.

Sunday’s quiz
Tampa Bay Rays played the Phillies the one time they made the World Series.

***************************

Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) 49ers 31, Browns 3— Monday at the Mirage Casino here in Las Vegas, someone wagered $120K to win $52K on the 49ers’ money line in this game. Good night for that guy.

— Mayfield completed 8-22 passes for 100 yards; a WR did drop an easy TD that turned into an INT when game was 14-3, but still, he had a miserable night.
— Total yardage was 446-180; luckily for TV networks, only one more primetime game for the overrated Browns.

12) Patrick Mahomes tweaked his ankle Sunday night when one of his own linemen stepped on the ankle while he was pass blocking.

Colts’ defense blitzed on 41.9% of Kansas City’s dropbacks, and they were effective.

11) Redskins fired coach Jay Gruden early Monday morning, which won’t help anything; he was 35-49-1 in Washington, with one playoff appearance.

Washington’ problem is that their owner is horrendous and he meddles; here are the Redskins’ head coaches since Daniel Snyder bought the ball club in 1999:

1994-2000: Norv Turner 50-60-1
2001: Marty Schottenheimer 8-8
2002-03: Steve Spurrier 12-20
2004-07: Joe Gibbs 31-36
2008-09: Jm Zorn 12-20
2010-13: Mike Shanahan 24-41
2014-19: Jay Gruden 35-49-1

Bill Callahan is the Redskins’ interim coach; he also replaced Jon Gruden as the Raiders’ coach when Gruden jumped to the Buccaneers.

10) Steelers kicked off to start overtime Sunday, which is very unusual, since a TD on the first possession ends the game. Ravens punted on their first drive, so it didn’t come into play, and Mike Tomlin was celebrating like they won the game when Baltimore punted, but Steelers fumbled and lost the game anyway.

Will be interesting to see how the Pittsburgh media deals with Tomlin if he has his first losing season as a head coach- they’re 1-4 right now, with the 3rd-string QB starting for a while.

9) Oregon State executed a drop kick/onside kick against UCLA Saturday; was pretty cool to see, and it worked like a charm. Beavers led 21-0 before first quarter was half over.

8) With Devlin Hodges expected to start at QB for the Steelers in LA Sunday, Paxton Lynch, a former 1st round draft pick of the Broncos, is going to be Hodges’ backup.

7) Quote of the Day, part II:
“I (bleep)ing love this!!!!”
Younger guy sitting in front of me the other night in the Aria sportsbook; he was just sitting there taking in all the action, when a couple of his bets won, he started yelling. Good stuff.

6) Blue Ribbon Basketball’s preseason top 6 teams:
Michigan State, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Florida, Louisville

5) Tampa Bay 10, Astros 3— Rays drew 32,251 for a 1:00 playoff game, and the TV guys were raving about what a great crowd it was. These teams play Game 4 at 4;30 tomorrow, will be interesting to see what they draw for that game.

4) Cardinals 5, Braves 4 (10)— Molina tied game with an 8th inning single, then won it with a sac fly in the 10th. Decisive Game 5 is Wednesday in Atlanta.

3) Tennessee Titans cut kicker Cairo Santos Monday, after he went 0-4 on field goals in their ugly 14-7 home loss to Buffalo Sunday; they’re expected to sign former Bears’ K Cody Parkey to replace Santos.

2) Kansas Jayhawks fired their offensive coordinator Sunday after only six games; you wonder what thats all about. The new OC has a small-college background- the NAIA team he coached LY averaged 55 ppg and 540.3 yards/game.

Jayhawks rank 101st nationally in scoring, 102nd in yards gained, 104th in passing and 116th in first downs per game.

Remember that college assistant coaches are equal parts tacticians/recruiters; players win games, and Kansas is obviously behind its Big X opponents in talent level.

1) Michael D. Smith posted this on Twitter Sunday:

2004 draft class ranked by career passing yards:
56,545 Ben Roethlisberger
56,537 Eli Manning
56,121 Philip Rivers
24,887 Matt Schaub
6,271 JP Losman
2,370 Luke McCown
929 Jim Sorgi
718 Craig Krenzel
342 John Navarre
195 Cody Pickett
136 Matt Mauck
53 Larry Fitzgerald

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not Report - Week 6
October 7, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Week of October 7th

Mixed results so far from last week's isolated scenarios, as the 'unders' for teams coming off 40-point performances took a hit with a 2-0 O/U record so far this week with Cleveland's result pending tonight.

Going against those 40-point performers against the spread the following week as brought a 1-1 ATS record officially, but if you were willing to just take Seattle ML instead of the “dreaded” hook on -1.5, a betting record of 2-0 is possible. Again, Cleveland's result is still pending tonight, but it's already on toe Week 6 for the most part.

And Week 6 this year is the first time we've got more then two teams on a bye week, and the first time we get a division rematch game as well (Carolina/Tampa Bay). It's not a true home-and-home since they will be playing in London, England, but you know the new-look Panthers with Kyle Allen under center would love to get some revenge.

It's these divisional games that become the focus for this week's piece though,as there are four of them in total – Carolina/Tampa, Cincinnati/Baltimore, San Francisco/LA Rams, and Detroit/Green Bay – and they've all got interesting aspects involved from both the specific and broad view.

Who's Hot

Road teams in NFL Divisional games

15-9 ATS – 11-6 ATS as road underdogs of any number

Not the greatest run in terms of it being 75%-plus or something like that, but these early season division games have been dominated by the road team. A blind 15-9 ATS overall is quite the run in general, and considering road teams only had a losing week in divisional games back in Week 4 (2-4 ATS for road teams), it's something that's proved to be an angle to go back to.

Breaking it down to road underdogs record as well is important because three of the four divisional games this week have road dogs listed, and all are currently getting more than a FG. Depending on how early action shakes out over the next 48 hours or so, these division road dogs could see their spreads drop even lower.

Detroit has already seen a bit of support for their MNF game in Green Bay next week, seeing an opener of 5.5 get bet down to +5 and even some +4.5's, while the initial line on San Francisco that's sitting in the same range, is more stagnant simply because the 49ers still have to play this week. A strong outing from San Fran tonight and you know that number will drop on them next week.

However, the winless Bengals have seen their line go the other way, as it's all been early Baltimore love next week. The Bengals looked awful on MNF against the Steelers, were the first team to lose to Arizona, and have still yet to win a game. I get it, tough to like a team like that and that initial move could be more of simply getting ahead of the masses in general, but I'm not sure what there is to like about Baltimore's spot laying all those points?

It's the third straight division game for the Ravens, after getting waxed by Cleveland, and escaping Pittsburgh with a win. Eventually all that emotional energy is tough to replace, and even though it is the Bengals coming to visit, having Cincinnati winless has to take some of the fear of losing this game out of the equation for Baltimore. The Ravens also have a road trip to play a very good Seattle team on deck, and given the success of division road dogs this year, that sure does look like a lot of points to cover for the Ravens next week.


Who's Not

Betting 'overs' in Divisional games

6-18 O/U in 2019

A run like this for 'under' bettors in divisional affairs isn't all that surprising given the general strength of 'unders' cashing in general this year, but to hit at a 75% clip in a broad isolated scenario like division games is quite the run.

Now this would be a run I'd be a bit more hesitant to blindly ride, as Week 5 saw division games finish with a 3-1 O/U record as some regression to the mean was bound to be on the horizon. We still may have not seen the full brightness of said horizon which makes these 'unders' a little harder to back without digging deeper. But having a place to start is never a bad thing.

With the Carolina/Tampa game actually being a division rematch game already, and being played in London, it will be interesting to see where this total shakes out. Early money has been all about the 'over' as an early 46.5 now sits at 48.5, as the trend of those overseas games being an 'over' bettor's haven continues to have some validity after the Raiders and Bears sailed 'over' their number on Sunday.

But there is film on these two teams already, and most of it wasn't pretty. Granted, Carolina won't be having Cam Newton under center this time around, and the players definitely want to put on a show for their overseas fans, but if this number continues to climb, all of that can still happen and the 'under' can still cash. Like the Ravens ATS early support, this quick move does have some signs of simply being one that's trying to stay ahead of the masses, so keep your eye out for that as the week goes on.

As far as the other possible 'unders' go in divisional games in Week 6, if you are of the mindset of the Ravens being in a potential flat spot because of level of opponent, fatigue, or otherwise, there is a case to look low on that total as well. Three straight divisional 'overs' would be quite the new feat for this Ravens franchise, and if the Bengals are going to hang around and either win SU and/or ATS, chances are with the limited offensive weapons they've got, it's not going to be a high-scoring game. But like Carolina/Tampa, this Bengals/Ravens game has already seen the total get bumped as well.

With the 49ers/Rams game still in limbo as Week 5 finishes, the Detroit/Packers game has also seen an early bump in the total too. Green Bay has started to find things offensively while taking a predictable step back defensively these past two weeks, and the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

That initial move does make a lot of sense for sure, but depending how high that total gets a week from now, this division 'under' trend is worth monitoring.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 5 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-5

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-29-1
Against the Spread 31-43-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 33-42-1
Against the Spread 26-48-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 36-40

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Colts (+11, ML +425) at Chiefs, 19-13
Raiders (+6.5, ML +250) vs. Bears, 24-21
Broncos (+4.5, ML +200) at Chargers, 20-13
Packers (+3.5, ML +160) at Cowboys, 34-24
Bills (+3, ML +160) at Titans, 14-7
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Bengals, 26-23

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-16.5) at Redskins, 33-7
Eagles (-14) vs. Jets, 31-6
Vikings (-6) at Giants, 28-10
Texans (-4) vs. Falcons, 53-32
Panthers (-3) vs. Jaguars, 34-27
Saints (-3) vs. Buccaneers, 31-24

Chief Concern

-- The Kansas City Chiefs were expected to mow over the Indianapolis Colts (+11, ML +425) at Arrowhead on Sunday Night Football. The Colts entered the game with several defensive backs banged up, and other falling like flies in the first half. But, cliche' totally intended, that's why they play the games. The Colts fought to a 13-10 halftime lead, they held on in a scoreless third quarter, and actually pushed their lead to 19-10 before the Chiefs booted a field goal in the fourth quarter for the low-scoring 19-13 road victory.

The Chiefs had scored 25 or more points in 25 consecutive games, an NFL record, but that's all over now. QB Patrick Mahomes also dinged up his already nagging ankle injury, and his lack of mobility made him look rather mortal. And the lack of discipline, racking up 11 penalties for 125 yards, certainly didn't help matters either. The Chiefs also lost WR Sammy Watkins, LB Anthony Hitchens, DLs Chris Jones and Xavier Williams to injuries, too. Still, as heavy favorites, they should have been able to overcome. They didn't, and that's a concern going forward.

Jekyll And Hyde Texans

-- The Houston Texans rolled the Atlanta Falcons 53-23 at NRG Stadium, which is how many predicted the Texans offense would look. QB Deshaun Watson finally broke out, and the Texans were on fire in all facets of the game. But then why did they score just 10 last week against the Carolina Panthers in a 16-10 loss at home, especially against a backup QB? The week before they went on the road and won 27-20 at Los Angeles Chargers, following up a 13-12 dud against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're in one of those weird odd-week, even-week patterns. They're 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in even-numbered weeks. We'll see if that continues next Sunday on the road against the Chiefs. Hmm.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-Kansas City Chiefs (55.5) battle, and as mentioned, it didn't even come close. In fact, the Sunday Night Football game has hit the 'under' in all six games, with the underdog 4-2 SU/ATS. File that away for next Sunday's battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chargers.

The second-highest total on the board was the Falcons-Texans (50) game, and Houston took care of the number themselves. The next highest total was the Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks (48.5) battle on Thursday night, a 30-29 win in favor of the Seahawks. Thursdays are the night of the underdog, going 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS through the first four installments, with the 'over' cashing in the past two.

The next highest total is the Monday Night Football tilt between the Cleveland Browns-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium, still to be determined.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (39) game, the only one with a total in the 30's. The Bills, who have won three straight away games for the first time since the 2004 season, is the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of their games so far. It might not be pretty, but they're winning.

The next lowest total was in the London battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium. The Oakland Raiders-Chicago Bears (40) game wasn't a track meet, but it did end up going 'over'. It was just 17-0 at half in favor of the Raiders, but the Bears threw up 21 points in the third quarter to help the total inch over the finish line at 'over'.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 split in the first two primetime games of Week 5, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Browns-49ers (47.5) still pending. The 'over' is 4-11 (26.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Giants RB Wayne Gallman (concussion) exited early, as the replacement for RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) needed medical attention of his own. Not good.

-- Steelers QB Mason Rudolph (concussion) was forced out of action, leaving undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges to finish up the game. He did well enough to steer the team to overtime, but they lost to the Ravens 26-23. Cue the Colin Kaepernick talk in the Steel City.

Looking Ahead

-- The Panthers and Buccaneers lock horns in London next Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET. They already played on Thursday night in Week 2, with the Bucs winning 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, covering as 6 1/2-point underdogs while hitting the 'under' (48). That game was the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). Since then it's QB Kyle Allen starting, going 3-0 SU/ATS in three starts in place of Supercam. In this series, the 'under' has hit in six of the past seven meetings, with the underdog going 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings.

-- The Bengals and Ravens will tangle in Charm City, with Cincinnati still searching for its first win of the season. While the Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games inside the AFC North Division, they failed to cover at Pittsburgh two weeks ago in a blowout loss, and most of the stat above was with a team which was NFL caliber, not this current version of the Bengals. The Ravens have failed to cover in five straight games at home, so something's gotta give. Remember, Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Baltimore, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

-- In another divisional battle, the 49ers and Rams lock horns in Southern California. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in the past six NFC West battles, while the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five against NFC West foes. That includes a narrow cover as 1 1/2-point underdogs in Seattle, losing 30-29 last Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in five of the past six meetings in L.A., four of the past five meetings overall and the Rams are just 2-5 ATS in the previous seven in this series.

-- On Monday Night Football, the Lions and Packers square off at Lambeau Field, and Green Bay is looking to carry over momentum after a 34-24 win at Dallas. The Lions are well rested, coming off a bye, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven following a week off. The Lions have cashed in four of the past five on the road, while covering five of the past seven appearances on a Monday. The Packers have covered just three of the past 10 inside the NFC North, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven appearances on Monday. In this series, while the Lions have covered four in a row, the favorite has hit in 19 of the past 26. The over is also an impressive 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

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Close Calls - Week 5
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 5 of the NFL regular season.

Seattle Seahawks (-1½) 30, Los Angeles Rams 29 (48½): The Thursday night NFC West clash lived up to its billing with a back-and-forth contest. The Seahawks led by one at halftime, briefly opening as a slight underdog but listed commonly a slight favorite at -1½ most of the week. The Rams had two 75-yard touchdown drives in the third quarter surrounding a short-field Seattle score but Los Angeles missed on a two-point conversion attempt to lead by just five. Early in the fourth quarter field goals were exchanged before Russell Wilson led a lengthy drive for the Seahawks and found the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:28 to go. The two-point conversion try loomed large on the spread result but DK Metcalf was unable to haul it in, leaving Seattle up by just one. The Rams had plenty of time to get into field goal range but Seattle challenged an incomplete pass and it was ruled that it was narrowly a wild interception from Tedric Thompson, a deflected pass that was juggled several times but was kept off the turf. Seattle was not able to pick up a first down to finish off the game however and it appeared that the Rams would sneak away with the win, reaching field goal range only to have Greg Zuerlein miss from 44 yards.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (44): The Ravens jumped out to an early 10-point lead but Pittsburgh took advantage of two interceptions to add a six points before the break to trail by four, getting close to the home underdog spread that mostly fluctuated between +3 and +3½. Pittsburgh scored first after halftime after another Lamar Jackson interception but Baltimore quickly answered with a field goal to knot the game at 20-20. Mason Rudolph was injured in the third quarter as the Steelers were down to undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges at quarterback. He did enough to lead Pittsburgh to another field goal with 2:37 remaining but Baltimore answered as Justin Tucker was good from 48 to force overtime, a kick that also sealed the ‘over’. The Ravens were forced to punt starting the extra session and Pittsburgh appeared to be on the move but JuJu Smith-Schuster lost the ball after a solid gain, with Baltimore narrowly recovering the fumble in bounds, effectively already in field goal range. A conservative approach followed as the Ravens picked up only six yards and Tucker hit from 46 for the win, though for many on the Ravens it wasn’t quite enough.

Oakland Raiders (+7) 24, Chicago Bears 21 (40): After a scoreless opening quarter in London the Raiders delivered 17 points in the second quarter for a commanding underdog edge on a line that climbed back up dramatically by Sunday, opening at -6 before falling as low as -4½ and rising all the back to -6½ and -7 by kickoff. The Bears suddenly also climbed back into the game in the third quarter taking advantage of good field position to score three touchdowns, going in front 21-17. The Raiders were on the doorstep to go back in front but Chicago got a fumble recovery near the goal line and the Bears were able to work their way out of danger into Oakland territory. Points weren’t added however but then it was the Raiders who were then pinned deep. A running into the kicker penalty gave Oakland a retry on a punt that would have left the Bears near midfield. Now facing 4th-and-1, the fake punt was on and Eddie Harris picked up the first down but appeared to fumble. On review the Raiders kept the ball and Derek Carr would go on to complete the 97-yard scoring drive to put Oakland back in front. Chicago crossed midfield on a late possession, but Chase Daniel wound up intercepted as Oakland moved to 3-2.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) 26, Cincinnati Bengals 23 (46½): These winless squads kicked a lot of field goals early on as Arizona held a 13-9 lead through three quarters and the ‘under’ sat in good shape. The Cardinals added three more to lead by seven and seemed to put the game away with a 37-yard touchdown run with about seven minutes remaining for a 14-point lead. Andy Dalton led a 79-yard scoring drive around the four-minute mark to get the Bengals back within seven and the Cardinals weren’t able to gain a first down while only running off 27 seconds. Dalton hit Tajh Boyd for two big plays and suddenly Cincinnati was in the end zone. The Bengals opted to kick for the tie rather than go for the win with the touchdown right at the two-minute warning, a score that was also extremely relevant for those on a total that hovered in-between 46 and 47. There was too much time left for the Cardinals as Kyler Murray led his first NFL game-winning drive using his arm and his legs to set-up Zane Gonzalez for another field goal for the win.

Carolina Panthers (-3) 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 27 (41): The Panthers took a 28-17 lead early in the third quarter but the Jaguars would fight back adding a touchdown to trail by just four heading into the final frame on a spread that was commonly +3 or +3½. The Panthers weren’t able to put the game away despite two chances to add points, missing a field goal and then getting stopped on 4th-and-1 at the 5-yard-line. Jacksonville settled for a field goal to trail by one with about six minutes remaining but the Panthers seemed to close the door with a 59-yard touchdown run. Incredibly the extra-point went right however as the margin stayed at seven. Jacksonville fumbled near midfield ahead of the two-minute warning but still wound up getting another shot, eventually reaching the Carolina 24-yard-line before running out of time.

Buffalo Bills (+3½) 14, Tennessee Titans 7 (39): Tied 7-7 through three the Bills turned in a 77-yard touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter surrounded by the third and fourth missed field goals of the day from Titans kicker Cairo Santos. The Titans would get a late possession but punted with about four minutes to go and didn’t get another chance as the Bills escaped with a win in a matchup that could loom large late in the season in the AFC wild card picture.

Denver Broncos (+4½) 20, Los Angeles Chargers 13 (46): A 14-0 first quarter lead offered great promise for the underdog Broncos and that edge was pushed to 17-0 with a field goal following up a missed field goal from the Chargers. Los Angeles also fumbled for a touchback on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard-line in the final play before halftime. Most of the third quarter went by harmlessly but winless teams often find ways to give their opponents a shot. Joe Flacco wound up intercepted at his own 7-yard-line to seemingly put the Chargers right back in the game but Philip Rivers returned the favor with another red zone turnover. Denver’s defense wouldn’t get a shot to prevent the next score however with Desmond King returning a punt 68 yards for a Chargers touchdown near the end of the third quarter. Joe Flacco took a costly 3rd down sack on the next Broncos drive to push the field goal attempt back and Brandon McManus would miss. A few plays later the Chargers added three to wind up within one score. The Broncos were eventually able to hit a field goal late in the fourth to finally put the game away for win #1.

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103NY GIANTS -104 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

251CAROLINA -252 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 2 seasons.

253CINCINNATI -254 BALTIMORE
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

255SEATTLE -256 CLEVELAND
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

257HOUSTON -258 KANSAS CITY
HOUSTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.

259NEW ORLEANS -260 JACKSONVILLE
NEW ORLEANS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

261PHILADELPHIA -262 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.

263WASHINGTON -264 MIAMI
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

265SAN FRANCISCO -266 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

267ATLANTA -268 ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game in the last 2 seasons.

269DALLAS -270 NY JETS
DALLAS are 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992.

271TENNESSEE -272 DENVER
DENVER is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the last 3 seasons.

273PITTSBURGH -274 LA CHARGERS
PITTSBURGH is 63-30 ATS (30 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

275DETROIT -276 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 20-6 ATS (13.4 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992.