Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 9 odds: Raiders are ready to return home
Jason Logan

Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball, ranked fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaging almost 26 points per game over its last four outings.

Situational handicapping – more popularly known as spot betting – is a great way to find hidden value on or against a certain team. From letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots, these blips on the calendar are just one of the weapons NFL bettors can use in their fight against the bookmakers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 9 schedule and gives his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact the outcomes.

LETDOWN SPOT: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (+3.5, 47)

The Chargers finally snapped their three-game losing skid thanks to some classic kicking from the Chicago Bears last Sunday. Chicago kicker Eddy Pineiro botched a game-winning field goal, allowing the Bolts to escape the Windy City with a much-needed 17-16 victory.

Los Angeles has been in some tight contests this season, with all but one of its first eight games decided by a touchdown or less. The Week 8 win allows the franchise to exhale but only after pinning offense coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as the sacrificial lamb, firing him on Monday after the team slogged through offensive issues in the first half of the schedule.

The Chargers return “home” to Dignity Health Sports Park, which will undoubtedly be overtaken by resident and vacationing Cheeseheads this Sunday. With some of the urgency erased following that win, and the offense play calling in flux, this could be a bad spot for the Bolts in Week 9.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6, 51.5)

The Buccaneers have been a sharp play in Week 9, drawing some action from the wiseguys for their trip to Seattle on Sunday. Tampa Bay has slimmed from +6.5 to +6, playing in what will be the team’s fifth straight road game, thanks to a chunk of scheduling that took the Bucs away from Raymond James Stadium (including across the pond to London, England and a Week 7 bye) for 49 days.

While the Seahawks are a formidable opponent and most teams wouldn’t look past that challenge, the homesick Buccos could be running on empty after crossing the country and dreaming of a full week in their own beds, heading into a Week 11 home stand with Arizona.

Tampa Bay has managed to cover the spread only once on this grueling four-game road stretch and is 6-8-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2017.


SCHEDULE SPOT: DETROIT LIONS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2, 50.5)

We mentioned the Buccaneers’ long road home just within reach, but the Oakland Raiders are coming out the other end of a similar stretch of schedule that last saw them inside RingCentral Coliseum on September 15.

Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball. After a 2018 in which the Silver and Black ranked among the basement in most scoring stats, this year’s Raiders are currently fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaged almost 26 points per game over their last four outings – all away from home.

Detroit makes the cross-country trek to the Bay Area with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and has injury concerns around standouts Snacks Harrison and Darius Slay. Action seems to be siding with Oakland in his homecoming, moving the spread from -1.5 to -2.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SF at ARI 08:20 PM

ARI +10.0 *****

U 43.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

49ers move to 8-0, edge Cardinals
October 31, 2019

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 317 yards and four touchdowns and the San Francisco 49ers reached the halfway point of their season undefeated, beating the Arizona Cardinals 28-25 on Thursday night.

San Francisco (8-0) fell behind 7-0, but responded with three touchdowns - one as time expired in the second quarter after Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury called a timeout and gave the 49ers a second chance on fourth down - to take a 21-7 halftime lead.

The 49ers were in control until about five minutes left in the fourth quarter, when Andy Isabella caught a short pass and sprinted for an 88-yard touchdown to help the Cardinals pull to 28-25.

But the 49ers were able to run out the clock on their ensuing offensive drive to end Arizona's comeback. San Francisco's Emmanuel Sanders caught seven passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Arizona (3-5-1) lost its second straight game. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns.

The Cardinals came into the game without their top two running backs, David Johnson and Chase Edmonds, who were battling injuries.

Kenyan Drake - who was acquired by the Cardinals on Monday in a trade with the Miami Dolphins - ran for 36s yard on the first play of the game and capped the opening drive with a 4-yard touchdown run. He finished with a team-high 110 yards rushing and 52 yards receiving.

BAD TIMING

Arizona looked as if was about to escape the first half trailing 14-7 after San Francisco's Jeff Wilson Jr. was stopped on fourth down just shy of the goal line with a few seconds remaining in the first half.

But there was one major problem for the Cardinals: Kingsbury called a timeout just before the play began.

The 49ers converted on their second chance when Garoppolo hit Sanders for a 1-yard touchdown pass and a 21-7 lead.

ROAD WARRIORS

San Francisco's off to an 8-0 start for the second time in franchise history. The Niners won 10 straight games to start the 1990 season.

This year's streak has included five road wins. The 49ers have three straight home games starting with the Seahawks on Nov. 11.

KITTLE SCARE

The 49ers got a scare early when star tight end George Kittle left the game after taking a helmet to the knee. But the third-year star quickly returned and responded with a 30-yard touchdown catch late in the first quarter to tie it at 7.

INJURIES

49ers: Defensive lineman Arik Armstead left in the first quarter with a throat injury but returned to the game. ... Linebacker Kwon Alexander had a chest injury in the second half and didn't return.

Cardinals: Defensive lineman Clinton McDonald left with what a ''stinger'' in the third quarter.

UP NEXT

San Francisco returns home to face Seattle on Nov. 11 for a Monday night game.

Arizona travels to Tampa Bay on Nov. 10.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, November 3, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
9:30 AM Houston Texans Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM New York Jets Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM Indianapolis Colts Pittsburgh Steelers
4:05 PM Detroit Lions Oakland Raiders
4:05 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Seattle Seahawks
4:25 PM Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos
4:25 PM Green Bay Packers Los Angeles Chargers
8:20 PM New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens

Monday, November 4, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Dallas Cowboys New York Giants


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NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/31/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/28/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/27/2019.....14-9-0..........60.87%.............+20.50
10/24/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/21/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%..............-0.50
10/20/2019.....13-8-1...........61.90%............+21.00
10/17/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00% .............-0.50
10/14/2019.......2-0-0.........100.00%.............+10.00
10/13/2019...11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/10/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%..............-11.00
10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/31/2019.............1 - 0..........+5.00..................0 - 1...........-5.50.............-0.50
10/28/2019.............1 - 0..........+5.00..................0 - 1...........-5.50.............-0.50
10/27/2019.............6 - 4..........+8.00..................4 - 4...........-2.00.............+6.00
10/24/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/21/2019.............1 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/20/2019.............8 - 4..........+18.00................5 - 5............-2.50............+15.50
10/17/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0............+5.00............-0.50
10/14/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0............+5.00.............+10.00
10/13/2019.............6 - 5...........+2.50.................5 - 6.............-3.00.............-0.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................0 - 1.............-5.50.............-11.00
10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50................6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00.................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00................3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00................4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50.................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00................1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00................7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50................2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50................8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Monmouth College ran a poll of favorite Halloween candies:

— Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups: 36%

— Snickers: 18%

— M&M’s: 11%

— Hershey bars: 6%

— Candy corn: 6%

— Skittles: 5%

Quote of the Day
“You must do the thing which you think you cannot do.”
Eleanor Roosevelt

Friday’s quiz
Who coached the Arizona Cardinals in their one Super Bowl?

Thursday’s quiz
Karl Malone has made the most free throws in NBA history (9,787)

Wednesday’s quiz
Dave Wannstedt was the Miami Dolphins’ coach last time they won a playoff game, in 2000.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…..

13) Phillies signed Bryce Harper, Padres signed Manny Machado, but Washington won the World Series. Here is the money Washington spent on pitching:

— Strasburg: seven years, $175M
— Scherzer: seven years, $210M
— Corbin: six years, $140M
— Sanchez: two years, $19M

Starting pitching still matters.

12) Gerrit Cole is about to break the bank in free agency; wonder what his agent’s blood pressure was Wednesday night when Cole started throwing in the bullpen, three nights after he threw 110 pitches Sunday. Don’t want the star client getting hurt.

Lets say Cole banks $35M a year for four years in his next contract (Zack Greinke makes that now); the agent’s take (3%) of all that would be $4,200,000.

11) 49ers 28, Cardinals 25— 49ers led 28-14 but Arizona kept America entertained until the end; Garoppolo was 27-36/306 and four TD’s passng, as the 49ers improved to 8-0.

10) When the Rams traded injured CB Aqib Talib to Miami this week, you figure Talib would be insulted or ticked off, but because of state income tax laws, Talib actually saves $560,000- he moved from California to Florida, where taxes are lower. Good week for him.

9) Two of my favorite NBA players to watch are both on the Clippers; Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell; they aren’t stat guys, they just work their butts off and make life uncomfortable for their opponents. Guys like that make life easier for the stat guys.

8) Baylor 17, West Virginia 14— Bears improve to 8-0, even though they’ve been favored only twice in their last five games. Baylor has three wins by 3 or fewer points.

7) NFL road teams are 71-45-2 ATS so far this season.

6) Jimmy Butler’s stats in Miami’s 106-97 win over Atlanta Thursday: 5 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists, 6 steals and 3 blocks. Heat was +21 with Butler on the floor, -12 with hm off the floor. You don’t have to score all the time to be a difference maker.

5) Wayne Ellington has scored 5,298 points in his 11-year NBA career; Knicks are the ninth NBA team he’s played for. His best scoring year was two years ago, when he scored 11.8 ppg for Miami.

Ellington played three years at North Carolina, scoring 14.7 ppg, was 28th player taken in the 2009 Draft. Betcha he could write a helluva book, playing on nine teams in 11 years.

4) Georgia Southern 24, Appalachian State 21— Mountaineers had gotten up to #20 in country, but then lost at home on national TV to their longtime rivals from back in their I-AA days.

3) Joel Embiid and Karl Anthony Towns both got suspended two games for their part in a small scuffle during Wednesday’s game. On NBA TV, couple of retired players were laughing, saying that back in the 90’s, when the NBA game was much more physical than it is now, the players wouldn’t even have gotten tossed out of the game.

2) Kansas City Royals named former Cardinal skipper Mike Matheny their new manager; he was 591-474 in seven years in St Louis, 21-22 in playoff games, but he missed the playoffs this last three years, which is why the Cardinals told him to take a hike.

1) Only 105 days until pitchers/catchers report for the 2020 baseball season.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis

PIVOT PROBLEMS

The Oakland Raiders have a serious problem with their pivot as backup center Andre James didn’t practice Wednesday. Already without starter Rodney Houston, the Raiders would need Richie Incognito to slide in at center if James can’t ready before Sunday’s game versus the Detroit Lions.

This comes as a bad time for the Silver and Black as the Lions are getting their two starting defensive tackles back for the tilt. Lions’ No.1 corner Darius Slay is also trending towards playing.

Carr has been sacked just eight times all year and may face a bit more pressure than he is accustomed to, forcing him into some riskier passes. We are banking on the Lions to capitalize on this and are taking Over 0.5 interceptions for the Raiders QB.


TOM NOT-SO TERRIFIC

The Baltimore Ravens’ secondary is getting healthier ahead of their big AFC matchup with the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens will have free safety Earl Thomas and get stud corner Jimmy Smith back, as well. This will push corner Marlon Humphrey (positive PFF grade) into the slot where he will see a heavy dose of Julian Edleman.

Tom Brady has played to a passer rating of 83.3 over his last five games and Sunday’s game will be just his second time, and first in five weeks, facing a team with a winning record this year. His QBR rating of 58.7 is also the worst mark of his career.

We are 1-0 this year betting against the GOAT and looking to fade his passing total in Week 9. Take the Under on Tom Terrific's 292.5 passing yard total.


ACCIDENTS WILL ALLEN

The Denver Broncos have punted the most over their last three games at 7.3 a game and have converted an abysmal 12.8 percent of their third downs over that stretch. This is the offense that Joe Flacco has passed down to Brandon Allen for the Broncos Week 9 matchup with the Cleveland Browns.

Allen has yet to take a regular-season snap since being drafted in the sixth-round in 2016. In the preseason, however, the newest member of the Broncos has thrown 11 interceptions and been sacked 13 times in 226 pass attempts (62.8 completion percent). It’s tough to be worse than Flacco, but Allen has a good chance of doing it against the Browns whose defense is tied for eighth in completions against at 21.1.

Flacco averaged 21 completions over his eight starts this year and cleared 20 completions just once in his last four. There is a better chance that Allen falls on his face than he performs better than Flacco. Take the Under on Allen’s 20.5 completions.


BACKING A BOTHERED BELL

Last week we backed Le’Veon Bell’s rushing total and came up plenty short. We weren’t the only ones who were upset as even Bell, himself, was frustrated and angry about his lack of touches. But it looks like head coach, Adam Gase and the running back have made amends, and are “on the same page” ahead of the Jets matchup against the Miami Dolphins, a game in which the Jets are favored for the first time since Week 1.

The Dolphins are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opponents at 160 as they are giving up 4.8 yards per rush attempt. The ‘Fins have also allowed three backs to eclipse the century mark over their last five games: James Connor, Adrian Peterson and Ezekiel Elliott.

We are chasing last week’s loss on the squeaky-wheel theory and riding the Over on Bell’s rushing total of 75.5 yards.


KICKING PLAY OF THE WEEK

In the four games at New Era Stadium this year, the longest field goal made was 46 yards. That was in Week 4 with warmer and less windy conditions than Sunday's game between the Redskins and Bills.

Last week, the northwest had some serious winds that really hampered teams’ kickers. This week in Buffalo, the temperature will be just above freezing with strong winds of the 20-mph variety.

Washington Kicker Dustin Hopkins is just 1-for-3 from 40 and longer since Week 1, while Buffalo kicker Stephen Hauschka is 0-for-3 in attempts from 49 or farther. We are making the WSH/BUF longest field goal Under 45.5 our kicking play of the week.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 9 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is questionable for Sunday's home game against Minnesota. If he plays, The SuperBook expects to set a line of Chiefs -2.5; if he sits, it'll be Vikings -3.5.

To play, or not to play? In NFL Week 9, that is the question surrounding quarterback Patrick Mahomes. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas

Injury Impact

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Mahomes didn’t play in the Week 8 Sunday night game against Green Bay, while recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Matt Moore had a solid outing, but the Chiefs lost 31-24 as 5-point home underdogs. Friday, Mahomes was listed as questionable for a home tilt against the Vikings. The game has been off the board all week, pending some finality on Mahomes. “If he plays, the line will come out around Chiefs -2.5,” Osterman said. “If he’s out, it would be Vikings around -3.5.”

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: A calf injury will keep wideout T.Y. Hilton off the field at Pittsburgh. “That moved the line 1 point. He’s really the Colts’ only big-play weapon, so he means a little bit more than wide receiver on some other teams.” Indianapolis was at +1 Friday afternoon, on a line that spent the week bouncing between pick, -1 and +1.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Running back James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful against the Colts, meaning Jaylen Samuels – who missed the past two games with a knee issue – will shoulder the load. “Not much effect on the line. Samuels is not much of a drop-off from Conner.” The Steelers were 1-point favorites Friday.

DENVER BRONCOS: Quarterback Joe Flacco (neck) is on injured reserve and done for the year. That caused the SuperBook to move from Broncos -1 straight to Browns -2.5 on Monday. “The sharps didn’t beat us to the news. We were on the front end of that move,” Osterman said. “Flacco being out moved the game 3-3.5 points, and then the sharp bets moved it another point-and-a-half.” By early Friday, visiting Cleveland was at -4.5.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams, out the past month with a toe injury, is listed as questionable on the road against the Chargers, but it appears likely he’ll return. “Adams would be a half-point move if he is confirmed as playing.” The Packers were at -3.5 Friday night.


Weather Watch

WASHINGTON AT BUFFALO: There’s a 40 percent chance of precipitation, with the wind blowing in the mid-teens, but The SuperBook isn’t concerned at this point. “No effect. We don’t see moves for wind unless it’s more than 25 mph, typically.” Buffalo is -10, with a low total of 36.

NEW YORK JETS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated in the Miami area on Sunday, with a 40 percent chance of rain. But again, no impact yet on the odds. “We won’t move for rain unless it’s actually raining the day of game.” The Jets are -3 against the winless Dolphins, with a total of 42.5.


Pros vs. Joes

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE: This is a recurring theme with the Patriots. “Pros are all over the Ravens, and the public is all over the Patriots again.” The Patriots opened -5 for the Sunday night game, but that sharp play dropped New England to -3 by Thursday.

TAMPA BAY AT SEATTLE: The Seahawks opened -6 and dipped to -4 by early Friday, before ticking up to -4.5. “The Seahawks are a popular public side this week, but there has been a ton of sharp action on Tampa Bay.”

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: This AFC South clash opened pick, stretched to Texans -2.5, then backed off to Houston -1.5 by midweek. “The public likes the Texans this week. The sharp side is the Jaguars plus the points.”


Reverse Line Moves

GREEN BAY AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: “We opened Packers -4 and now we’re at -3.5 (even),” Osterman said Friday afternoon. The line actually got as low as Green Bay -2.5 at one point. “We’ve gotten a lot of Packers money, but the market is moving toward the Chargers.”

In addition, Osterman said all three of the Pros vs. Joes games listed above have seen reverse line movement.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


STILLS STILL NO .2

Houston Texans’ No. 2 receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out for the London game this Sunday leaving Kenny Stills as the second option in Deshaun Watson’s passing attack. Fuller has basically missed the last two games and in his absence, Stills has been a boom or bust bet with 105 yards and four catches in Week 7 and just 22 yards on three grabs last week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars do own the league’s seventh-best DVOA pass defense but Stills might see more one-on-one coverage with most of the attention and safety help keying on DeAndre Hopkins.

With Stills’ receiving total on the high side at 60.5 yards, we will be keying in on his reception total of 3.5 and look to grab the Over. Stills and the Houston offense are averaging 27 completions a game so there is plenty of room for Stills to reach this modest total.


HOWARD TO RUN VERSUS FORMER TEAM

The Philadelphia Eagles might be looking to go on one of their mid-season runs on the heels of last week’s convincing win in Buffalo. This Eagles squad is successful as a run-first offense as they ran the ball 41 times last week, more than any other team in Week 8.

Jordan Howard has been the biggest beneficiary of the Eagles’ game plan as the former Bear saw 71 percent of the offensive snaps last week and has been dominating early-down work. Chicago’s defense has been better against the pass than the run which should suit Doug Pederson’s game script for Sunday.

Howard will be running with extra motivation as he will face his former employer and has a good chance of going Over his carry total of 16.5.


COLTS’ PASS CATCHERS QUESTIONABLE

The Indianapolis Colts are scoring just 20.7 points on the road this year and will be without an important piece of their passing game Sunday when they take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

T.Y. Hilton was downgraded to DNP on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday and has now been ruled out with a calf injury. Hilton has nearly double the targets as the next Indy receiver since their bye in Week 6 and has five touchdowns through six games.

Tight end Eric Ebron didn’t practice Thursday but will likely play Sunday. Ebron has been a steady passing option for Jacoby Brissett, averaging over four targets a game going over 45 yards three times.

The player to benefit the most would be tight end Jack Doyle who has seen the second-most targets since Week 7 and has averaged 42 yards a game over that stretch. We are doubling down on Doyle and hitting his Over 3.5 receptions and Over on his 35.5 receiving yards which are reasonable totals even with Ebron healthy and Hilton playing.


BEST VS WORST

Here is a list of some of the best and worst “defense versus receiver” matchups per Football Outsiders. Receiving totals are in parentheses.

D.Hopkins (86.5) vs. Jaguars: The Texans and DeAndre Hopkins are taking the show on the road to London this week. Deshaun Watson’s main squeeze has a dream matchup versus a secondary that is giving up 93 yards on 8.9 passes per game to No.1 receivers. DeAndre is coming in hot as he has eclipse 100 yards in two straight games and has passed his 86.5 yard total in three of his last four weeks. Greenlight on the Over.

Odell Beckham Jr (71.5) vs. Broncos: OBJ has topped 71 yards receiving just twice in seven games this year and is facing a defense that has allowed just 52.1 yards a game to teams’ No.1s. The Broncos have shut down top receivers this year including T.Y. Hilton - 54 yards, T. Hill - 74 yards, A. Humphries - 47 yards and K. Allen - 18 yards over their last four games. Greenlight on the Under 71.5.

Evan Engram (61.5) vs. Cowboys: The New York Giants have their full arsenal of offensive weapons suiting up this week. This means the league’s fourth-worst team at containing opposing tight ends (70.3 yards on 7.6 passes per game) will have their hands full and won’t be able to cheat on Monday night. Engram torched Jerry and the Boys in Week 1 for 116 yards on 11 catches and a score. Engram has also topped 61 yards receiving in three straight games versus Dallas, dating back to last year. Greenlight Engram’s Over at 61.5 receiving yards.

Mark Andrews (56.5) vs. Patriots: No tight end has reached 60 yards receiving versus the New England defense this year. Asking Mark Andrews to top a number he has only hit just once in his last five games versus a top-three defense is asking a lot. Feel confident taking the Under on Andrews’ receiving total of 56.5.

Leonard Fournette (33.5) vs. Texans: Leonard Fournette has the 11th-most receiving yards by a running back this year heading into Wembley for Sunday morning's game. The Jacksonville running back is averaging 5.6 targets a game while the Texans are surrendering a league-worst 7.5 yards per target to opposing RBs. That math (7.5 x 5.6) puts us at 25 percent over Fournette’s receiving total of 33.5 yards. Greenlight is a go here.

Dion Lewis (14.5) vs. Panthers: Not much to see here as 15 yards is a little too low for our liking. If you must, Lewis has seen just two targets in the passing game over the last two weeks for a whopping two yards. Carolina is allowing just 25 yards through the air to oppossing RBs. This one is a pass for us.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 13-0 ATS (9.35 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 at home coming off a road game where they rushed for at least 100 yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-8.32 ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 off a road game in which they had less than 26 minutes of possession time.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 9-0-2 OU (7.77 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 when Derek Carr threw at least two touchdowns on the road last game.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by double digits in 4+ straight games are 65-51 OU. Active win Minnesota and New England.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-10-1 OU (-8.27 ppg) since Nov 22, 2010 at home coming off a win where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 10-0 OU (12.90 ppg) since Sep 23, 2007 as a home favorite playing a team scoring at least 24 points per game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 ATS (-17.95 ppg) on the road vs a non-divisional opponent after a win in which they came back from a deficit.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 9
Joe Williams

It's Week 9 of the National Football League regular season, as we'll be past the halfway points after this weekend and heading for the home stretch. We have a return of several divisional matchups, an intriguing battle over in London for the final game of the season from England, as well as a potentially thrilling battle on Sunday Night Football betwee the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 8 6-9 8-7 6-9
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 55-65-1 56-64-1 54-63-4

The betting public struck back in Week 8 with some small gains after getting dusted by the books in the previous three weekends. Last week we saw nine under results and six over results, which is generally a win for the books.

Heading into Sunday's London game between the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium, you might want to think 'over' in the UK matchups. The high side has gone 2-1 in the three games from England this season and that includes a 2-0 mark at the two battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the under hit in last week's Wembley game. We note that because that's the same venue as this weekend's battle.

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 9 were not rewarded as the 'under' produced a 9-6 mark in the final 30 minutes. Through 121 games this season, the 'under' sits at 65-55-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (64-56-1) and second-half (63-54-4).

Division Bell

We had no division battles in Week 8, so we take a look back at the previous week. There were a total of five divisional battles in Week 7, and the winning team in each game had more than 30 points in each outing. However, the losing team averaging just 12 points per game in those contests, with only Miami and Houston scoring more than 11 points. The under is now 23-12 (65.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 7
Kansas City at Denver Under (49.5) Kansas City 30, Denver 6
Houston at Indianapolis Over (46.5) Indianapolis 30, Houston 23
Miami at Buffalo Over (42) Buffalo 31, Miami 21
Philadelphia at Dallas Under (50) Dallas 37, Philadelphia 10
New England at N.Y. Jets Under (43) New England 33, N.Y. Jets 0

London Totals

We have had three total games in London to date, with the first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium cashing over tickets, while last week's battle between the Rams and Bengals hit the under. The Rams didn't exactly light the world afire offensively, and the Bengals were...well...the Bengals. They're winless for a reason. This week's game features a potent offense from the Texans, and a subpar defense. For the Jaguars, they have also moved the ball quite well while checking in with a middling defense.

The Texans will be playing in their first game in England, although they have been involved in an International Series game, falling 27-20 to the Oakland Raiders at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Nov. 21, 2016, a game which hit the 'over'.

For the Jaguars, London has been a home away from home. This will be their seventh appearance in England, hitting the 'over' in five of the six battles. Last season's Week 7 battle against the Eagles was their first 'under' overseas, and that cashed just barely. In their only AFC South Division battle in London, they topped the Colts 30-27 on Oct. 2, 2016 for an 'over' result.

London Results - Past Nine Games
Week 8 - 2019 - Cincinnati vs. L.A. Rams Under (48) L.A. Rams 24, Cincinnati 10
Week 6 - 2019 - Carolina vs. Tampa Bay Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Cleveland at Denver: 43 to 39
Chicago at Philadelphia: 45 to 41 ½
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 40 ½
Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: 46 to 48 ½
New England at Baltimore (SNF): 46 ½ to 44 ½
Tennessee at Carolina: 40 to 42
Minnesota at Kansas City: 46 to 48

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: Over 96%
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Under 91%
Tennessee at Carolina: Over 87%
Houston at Jacksonville (London): Over 83%
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (MNF): Over 79%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Jets-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Baltimore (67 percent) battle on Sunday Night Football.

Handicapping Week 9

Week 8 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 0-0 13-22
NFC vs. NFC 2-3 14-14
AFC vs. AFC 1-4 11-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 18-18

Other Week 9 Action

Houston at Jacksonville (9:30 a.m. ET - London): The Texans will play in their first game in England, and just their second international game to date. The 'over' hit in their only previous non-United States battle. For the Texans, they have scored 23 or more points in each of their past four games, and they just missed the under by a half-point or point at most shops last week against the Raiders. Since tuning up Atlanta on Oct. 6 the Texans are averaging a robust 33.3 points per game across the past four, while allowing 24 or more points (32, 24, 30, 24) during the span. While that's all well and good, remember these players to a 13-12 battle in Houston back in Week 2, with the Texans coming out on top.

Tennessee at Carolina: The Titans hit the 'under' in five of their first six games, including a shutout loss Oct. 13 in Denver. They elected to make a change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill, and so far the move is paying off over the former Dolphins' past two outings. After averaging just 11.0 PPG in five outings from Week 2 through Week 6, the Titans have posted 23 and 27 in a pair of wins and 'over' results. The Panthers hit the over in last week's game in San Francisco, but it was mostly the doing of the 49ers. They were dumped 51-13 in a crazy loss for the defense, which has allowed 27, 26 and 51 across the past three contests. As expected, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. That's probably part of the reason this total has been on a move, up two points from an open of 40.

Chicago at Philadelphia: The Bears have dropped three in a row entering play in this one, now they get to face old buddy RB Jordan Howard and the equally hungry Eagles. The Bears have scored 16 or more points in six straight, and they're averaging 19 PPG across the past three. The 'over' is 2-1 in the past three games because the defense has gone south lately, mainly because the offense cannot stay on the field and the defense is likely getting worn down. Chicago's vaunted defense allowed 11.3 PPG over the first four outings, but they have yielded 25.7 PPG across the past three. Philly will be returning home after three straight road games which saw the 'over' hit in two battles, including last week's 31-13 win at Buffalo. Philly has hit for 20 or more points in seven of the first eight games, and they rank 21st in the NFL, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Minnesota at Kansas City: The Vikings offense sputtered last Thursday night in a 19-9 win over the Redskins, a big departure from their previous three games of production. In their past three Sunday battles the Vikings were averaging 36.0 PPG while allowing 20.0 PPG. Against the Chiefs, they'll need to be on point. Even with backup QB Matt Moore in for the injured QB Patrick Mahomes (kneecap) last week, the Chiefs posted 24 points in the first 'over' of the season on Sunday Night Football. The 'over' is 3-1 for Kansas City at home, and 2-0 against the NFC North Division so far this season.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The one-win Jets and winless Dolphins lock horns at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday with draft position on the line. The Dolphins have resembled an NFL caliber offense over the past three games since a bye, averaging 17.0 PPG, which isn't much, but is much greater than the 6.5 PPG they averaged in the first four games Still, the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three home games for the Dolphins. The Jets have averaged just 7.5 PPG over the past two games, and the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 in three games against AFC East Division foes this season, posting 16, 14 and 0 in those three contests.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: The Colts offense stumbled against the Broncos sturdy defense last week, but they still won. However, they'll need more than 15 points if they want to top the Steelers on the road. Indianapolis has hit the 'under' in their past three road outings, and they're averaging just 20.7 PPG in three games away from home, including 19 and 19 in the past two regulation games, both 'under' results. The Steelers defense has been better over the past four games, although they hae played a pair of winless teams and a toothless Chargers offense during the span. Still, the 'under is 4-1 over their past five outings. The offense has scored 20 or more points in six straight despite some injury woes.

Detroit at Oakland: The Lions rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game, posting 282.7 yards, and they're 31st in total yards allowed (420.4) and 32nd in the NFL against the pass (289.7). Detroit has allowed 23 or more points in five straight games, and six of the seven overall, hitting the 'over' in four of the past five, and five of seven. Defense also isn't a strong suit for the Raiders, as they're 31st against the pass (288.0). Look for QBs Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr to hook up in a shootout, and subsequently plenty of points.

Tampa Bay at Seattle: The Buccaneers roll in on a 5-0 'over' run, posting 31, 55, 24, 26 and 23 across their past five games on offense, while allowing 32, 40, 31, 37 and 27 on defense during the same span. Tampa Bay's games have looked like college scores, and the Seahawks have to be licking their chops. The Seahawks have hit the 'over' in each of their past three home games, averaging 24.3 PPG on offense while yielding 27.3 PPG during the three-game span.

Cleveland at Denver: The Browns were expected to be a juggernaut on offense, but they have struggled with consistency, turnovers and discipline through the first seven outings. They hit the 'under' last week in New England, and the under is 3-1 in four games away from the shores of Lake Erie this season. They're averaging 19.0 PPG in four road games, and those numbers are skewed a bit due to a 40-point outburst in Baltimore on Sept. 29. In their three 'under' results the Browns are posting just 13.0 PPG. The Broncos make a change to QB Brandon Allen for the injured QB Joe Flacco (neck). The Broncos have struggled mightily on offense, averaging just 11.7 PPG over the past three, and 15.0 PPG in four outings at home, hitting the 'under' in three games at Mile High.

Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: The Packers offense has been on fire, posting 23 or more points in six straight outings, cashing the 'over' in five of those outings. That including a 3-0 record against three previous AFC West clubs. They're averaging 33.4 PPG in three meetings against AFC West teams this season while allowing 21.4 PPG in this battles. The Chargers have been the complete opposite, hitting the 'under' in six of the past seven, including 2-0 vs. NFC North teams. The 'under' is also 3-0 in the past three at home.

Heavy Expectations

There are just one game listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 9, with the home team listed as favorites. The total is 36.5 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Redskins play their fifth game this season as a double-digit underdog. They have scored a total of 16 points (5.3 PPG) across their past three as a double-digit 'dog, and they have hit the under in five in a row overall. Washington will be using rookie QB Dwayne Haskins in his first NFL start, and he can't be any worse after the offense totaled nine points in the past two games. The Bills hit the 'over' in their only previous game this season as a double-digit favorite in Week 7, and the 'over' is 2-0 in their past two games at home.

Under the Lights

New England at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle will be much anticipated, and the SNF game saw the 'over' hit last week after an 8-0 'under' run to start. This game might be a return to the under. New England's defense has been sick, allowing just 234.0 total yards per game and 7.6 PPG to rank No. 1 in each category, while allowing 85.2 rushing yards per outing. That will be put to the test with the dynamic QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game to lead the NFL, with Jackson good for a team-high 576 yards on the ground. They're averaging 30.6 PPG to rank No. 2 in points scored, too, so they'll be the biggest challenge for New England's defense to date.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Cowboys and Giants square off Monday night in New Jersey. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven divisional games for the Cowboys, while going 12-3-1 in their past 16 games following a bye week. It's the complete opposite, with the under hitting in four in a row for the Giants, and 4-1 in their past five appearances on MNF. However, the over is 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings in New Jersey. Remember, RB Saquon Barkley is back from injury to help spur the offense along.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 9
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Titans at Panthers (-3 ½, 42) – 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) is right back in the AFC South race after picking up consecutive home wins over Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill has given the offense a spark at quarterback the last two weeks as the Titans scored 23 and 27 points following a two-week stretch of seven combined points. Granted, both games came down to the end but Tennessee is coming off consecutive wins for the first time this season, while the Titans already own road underdog victories at Cleveland and Atlanta.

The Panthers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) limp home after getting blasted by the undefeated 49ers last Sunday, 51-13 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Carolina fell into a 27-3 halftime hole as the Panthers saw their four-game winning streak snapped, while quarterback Kyle Allen was intercepted three times. The Panthers had scored 34 points or more in three of their previous four wins, as Carolina returns to Bank of America Stadium for its second home game in the last seven weeks.

Carolina has won six consecutive home games against AFC foes since 2016, while Tennessee is riding a three-game winning streak against NFC squads on the road since last season. The Panthers routed the Titans in Nashville in their previous matchup in 2015 as 3 ½-point favorites, 27-10, as the starting quarterbacks in that game were Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Panthers 24

Vikings (-4, 47) at Chiefs – 1:00 PM EST
The race atop the NFC North continues to be a good one between Green Bay and Minnesota, who are separated by one game heading into Week 9. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off their fourth straight victory after holding off the feisty Redskins, 19-9 in a Week 8 Thursday night battle as Minnesota failed to cover as 16 ½-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins continues to play well by throwing 10 touchdowns passes in the last four contests, while completing 23-of-26 passes against his former team for 285 yards last week.

The Chiefs (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) will likely be without last season’s MVP Patrick Mahomes for a second straight game after missing last Sunday night’s 31-24 loss to the Packers recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Kansas City has dropped three consecutive home games and last lost three games in a season at Arrowhead Stadium back in 2013. Matt Moore will start at quarterback once again, but the running game has been non-existent by being held to 88 yards or fewer in the last four contests (1-3).

The Vikings lost their first two road games of the season at Green Bay and Chicago, while scoring a total of 22 points in those defeats. Minnesota has rebounded in the past two away victories against the Giants and Lions (granted lesser competition), but the Vikings posted 70 points in those wins. Kansas City’s offense obviously takes a hit without Mahomes, but the Chiefs scored 20 points without the former Texas Tech star in the final three quarters at Denver before putting up 24 against Green Bay.

Best Bet: Vikings 24, Chiefs 20

Buccaneers at Seahawks (-4 ½, 53) – 4:05 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) shocked many people in its Week 4 blowout of the NFC Champion Rams, 55-40 as nine-point road underdogs to improve to 2-2. The Buccaneers haven’t won since by dropping three consecutive games, while allowing 31, 37, and 27 points in this stretch. The most recent defeat came at Tennessee last Sunday as two-point underdogs in a 27-23 setback to drop to 2-2 on the highway. Jameis Winston has been intercepted seven times in the last two games, as the Buccaneers are riding a five-game streak to the OVER.

The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) built a 24-0 halftime lead at Atlanta last Sunday before holding off the Falcons, 27-20. Due to the questionable status of Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan all week, there wasn’t a line on the game until Ryan was ruled out and Seattle closed as a 7 ½-point favorite. Following that non-cover, the Seahawks fell to 1-5 ATS this season when laying points, which includes an 0-4 ATS mark at CenturyLink Field. Seattle will look to sure up its defense at home as the Seahawks have yielded 33, 29, and 30 points in their last three contests in the Pacific Northwest.

The Bucs have not covered in a loss this season (0-5 ATS), but Tampa Bay owns a 5-1 ATS mark since last season as a road underdog of four points or more. This total is the highest that Seattle has seen this season, as the Seahawks cashed the OVER in all three opportunities on totals of 50 and higher in 2018. Tampa Bay defeated Seattle in the previous matchup at Raymond James Stadium in 2016 as five-point underdogs, 14-5.

Best Bet: Seahawks 30, Buccaneers 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 51 – Lions at Raiders

Oakland is playing at the Coliseum for the first time since Week 2 as the Raiders spent the last five games on the road. In the middle of this stretch, the Silver and Black traveled to London to face the Bears as Oakland finished UNDER the total in its two true home games to start the season. Although that was a long time ago, the Raiders have hit the OVER in four of the last five contests, but are 2-0 to the UNDER in totals of 50 or higher. The Lions’ offense has been hit or miss at time this season, but Detroit scored 30 points or more in three of their last four games. In their highest road total at Green Bay, the Lions finished UNDER the total of 47.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bears head to Philadelphia in a playoff rematch with the Eagles as Chicago tries to end a two-game skid. Teams that lose consecutive home games and hit the road are worth a strong look since bettors are normally down of them, as that is the case for Chicago. The Eagles blew out the Bills last Sunday, but Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS this season at Lincoln Financial Field, while failing to cash in seven of their past 10 home contests.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Westgate Superbook released the Broncos as a one-point home favorite against the Browns on October 22, five days before the Week 8 card took place. After the news came down that Broncos’ quarterback Joe Flacco will be sidelined and former Arkansas standout Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start, this line flipped significantly. Cleveland is listed as a 4 ½-point favorite even though the Browns own a 2-5 record and have dropped three consecutive games. Denver has lost three games this season by two points each, all on field goals in the final minute.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Dolphins are seeking their first win of the season. You probably knew that, but Miami has covered in three consecutive games, as the ‘Fins are an underdog once again when the rival Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium. In last season’s two matchups with the Dolphins, Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold was intercepted six times as New York scored 18 points and was swept by Miami. Of course the Dolphins aren’t the same team as last season, but the Jets enter Sunday’s action with a 1-9 record in their past 10 road contests.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Patriots at Ravens
Matt Blunt

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The lock on 'overs' in SNF games this year was finally cracked open last week, as the Packers and Chiefs brought the back-and-forth shootout that everyone would have expected from them at the beginning of the year, even if the home side had an understudy taking the place of their star. It was nice to see two NFL teams make the most of their scoring opportunities and cash in with TD's and not FG tries, as there have been too many teams throughout the league that have played too conservative in that spot and/or have kicking issues to boot.

That makes it two straight weeks with relatively easy winners on SNF for this piece, and as we've arrived at November this week I'm looking to make it three in a row.

This week we've got another great game for the SNF crew, as New England visits a Baltimore Ravens team that's always given them fits for the better part of a decade now. Obviously, Belichick and Brady are still there in New England, but Baltimore's going to look much different this time around for New England as QB Lamar Jackson is about as opposite as it gets in terms of their former QB Joe Flacco.

This should be a great test for a Patriots defense that's gotten heaps of praise in recent weeks for all that they've done this year – I think I heard that New England would still be something like 6-2 SU if the offense hadn't scored a single point all year – but context always matters, and is generally forgotten a lot in this industry, and there isn't an offense New England has faced that brings the challenge that Baltimore will bring here. Remember the Ravens have also had two weeks to prepare for this game as well.

With a point spread that will undoubtedly have recreational/public bettors siding with the Patriots and the Ravens being a popular play from the 'sharps', let's get into where your money should be going on Sunday night.

Total Talk

This total opened up at 46 and thanks to about 65% support for the low side, the number has dropped a half-point to stay relatively steady at 45.5 the rest of the way. Given how historically good the Patriots defense has looked in basically every game, you can understand why the 'under' was the first look for the majority, and with Belichick's history of containing and shutting down young QB's by throwing very different looks at them, the 'under' is a reasonable look for sure.

However, I'm not sure many of those young QB's that Patriots teams have owned in the Belichick era have had the dynamic skill set that Lamar Jackson has. His speed can break pretty much any contain their is, and his throwing accuracy (and reads) are getting better and better each week as he's asked to do more in that area. New England will throw some exotic looks at him for sure, and some will likely have some success, but it's not like Baltimore can't adjust to that themselves, and when you've got the best athlete on the field by a wide margin, adjustments just come easier.

At the same time, New England's defense – while worthy of the praise they've gotten from a statistical standpoint – the context in who they've played definitely matters. Yes, I know you can only play who's on the schedule in front of you, but in terms of yards gained per game by the offense, New England's faced the 32nd ranked offense (NYJ) twice, the 31st ranked offense (Miami), the 30th ranked offense (Washington), the 28th ranked offense (Pittsburgh), the 24th ranked offense (NYG), the 20th ranked offense (Cleveland) in a weather-affected game, and the 19th ranked offense (Buffalo). There are only 32 teams in the league so that's about as soft as it gets.

Furthermore, only one of those Patriots opponents comes into Week 9 this week averaging more than 20 points per game, and that's Pittsburgh at 21.4 points per contest. The Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins top out at 12.4 points per game (Washington), while the other three teams – Cleveland, NYG, and Buffalo are all between 19 and 19.8 points per game.

Sure, you could argue that facing New England's defense for at least one of their games contributes to those low numbers, but logic and basic reasoning would tell you that none of those teams are really any good this year (sorry Buffalo fans) at least from an offensive standpoint. That's not the case with Baltimore as they are the only other team – besides the Patriots – that averages over 30 points per game this season (30.6) and that number isn't aided by the plethora of defensive/special teams scores (5) New England has put up this year.

And even if you wanted to look at the other side of things and say, “well Baltimore's numbers are skewed because of the 59 points they put up on Miami” well, they are slightly for sure. But the Ravens have also scored at least 23 points in every game this year, and it's not like New England didn't put up 43 points on Miami themselves.

All that being said, New England has put up 27 or more in all but one of their games – as they should vs the level of opponent they've faced – and I do think they approach that number against Baltimore this week. Tom Brady and company can't be thrilled about all this chatter that the defense has carried the Pats to this 8-0 SU record pretty much by their lonesome, and it's not like you can't put up points on this Ravens defense who have already had games where they've allowed 33 and 40 points too.

At home, Baltimore will get theirs too, as this game could end up looking a lot like last week's SNF game where we get two winning teams trading scores and going blow for blow against one another. After all, maybe last week's 'over' result broke the dam on 'overs' happening in these prime time games and that's really the only way I can look here.

Side Spiel

Reading all of that talk about the total would suggest that I believe taking the points with Baltimore would be the side to look at, and in theory that's probably the case. New England is going to be the 'public' side here, and oddsmakers are probably going to need the Ravens ATS and/or SU to snap a lot of parlays and teaser cards from earlier in the day. But the Patriots make a habit of outperforming their numbers and I'm not willing to step in front of that with a number that's hovering around -3.

Now some will tell you that the 'look ahead line' on this game was New England -6.5 and given that New England covered in those nasty conditions last week and Baltimore didn't play, a 'move' like that is something to weigh heavily. But comparing look ahead lines to what's actually posted during the week, and what ends up being the closing number is one of the biggest shams going.

I say that because that line of thought operates under the assumption that look ahead lines are the “true” or “correct” line on a game, and movements come based on what happens in games the week prior. That's not true at all, and it's why you see so many big moves relative to those early look ahead lines. Plenty of bettors understand how egregious those look ahead lines can be – it's why oddsmakers also take smaller limits on them – and they bet them accordingly. I mean who wouldn't love taking the Ravens at +6.5 right?

That was a bad number and the betting action tells you that. Bettors willing to get out well ahead of the market take advantage of these off-market numbers and then adjust their position accordingly throughout the week when lines settle into place. That doesn't mean that Baltimore is the play now, it means at +6.5 they were well liked by bettors. Nothing more and nothing less. Breaking this game down at the current line of New England -3.5 is a totally different scenario to address outside of what happened in the early markets and it's that concept that ends up getting lost when bettors are discussing what look ahead lines were relative to where they end up going.

And this line of New England -3.5 is arguably right where this line should be in my view, and outside of moving the price tag on the juice for it, chances are it hovers in this range until game time, depending on how much Patriots love comes in from the masses. It's not a play I'd want to touch with either side, but if you are interested in doing something with the side, teasing up the Baltimore Ravens through the key numbers of 7 and even 10 (on a 7-pt teaser) is how I'd look to play it.

Final Thoughts

The side at the current number is not something I'm interested in at all outside of teaser options, but it is the total that does appear to be the better bet. This game has the stench of something like 27-24 written all over it for one of these two teams, although the winner probably needs to hit their average of 30+ points to assure themselves of a victory.

I do expect New England's defense to get “exposed” a bit in the sense that they've put up all these fantastic defensive numbers against the doldrums of the league offensively – Baltimore ranks 2nd in yards gained per game with 434.9.

At the same time, Brady and company on that side of the ball for New England make sure to quiet the noise about their unit being well behind their defense. Baltimore's defense can be had through the air – ranks 26th in passing yards allowed – and it will be that aerial attack that gives New England a chance.

Hopefully those floodgates on 'overs' cashing a few more times in SNF games the rest of the year did open up after last week's result, as we should get two straight SNF 'overs' cashing when all is said and done this week.

Best Bet: Over 45.5 points

[StarDust Bum]

Top six picks for Week 9 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1 (929)

5) Buccaneers +6 (1,031)

4) Vikings +2.5 (1,104)

3) Patriots -3 (1,130)

2) Packers -3.5 (1,251)

1) Browns -3 (1,,257)

2019 record: 25-22-1


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Circa Picks - Week 9

Week 9

1) Minnesota +2 (678)

2) Green Bay -3.5 (663)

3) Indianapolis -1 (528)

4) Cleveland -3.5 (525)

5) Jacksonville +1.5 (500)

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
November 1, 2019
By Micah Roberts

The Sunday night game with the Patriots (-3) at Ravens is shaping up to be the largest wagered upon game of the week and it's a daunting cloud hovering above Nevada sportsbooks because it will be the final game posted of the Sunday’s Week 9 NFL action and ignite larger than normal payouts on live parlays and teasers leftover from the first 11 games.

“We’re going to kind of be in the same situation we were in last week with the Patriots against the Browns where the large wagers were on the Browns but the ticket counts were heavy on the Patriots side,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso of the Patriots 27-13 win as 10-point favorites.

But the difference this week is the Ravens will be the Patriots biggest challenge this season. It’s certainly the lowest spread posted on them so far this season. The Ravens come in with the No. 1 ranked rushing game (208 ypg) in the NFL and the No. 2 scoring offense (30.6 ppg) average 30.6 ppg behind the Patriots (31.3 ppg).

“We could see the move coming when one of our sharper players took +160 on the Ravens money-line,” DiTommaso said.

CG’s split now has the Patriots -162 and the Ravens +142. The side has run from an early opener of Patriots -4.5 to -3.5 on Monday and then down to 3-flat on Thursday.

But the public doesn’t care what the Patriots spread is, they just want some more of the Belichick-Brady machine that has stayed undefeated and covered six of their eight games. What’s not to like about a Patriots squad that has averaged a 31-6 score through eight games?

William Hill’s sportsbooks across the country have seen 77 percent of their tickets written on the game taking the Patriots while the Ravens have collected 56 percent of the actual cash taken on it.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director says their top public side is the Patriots and their most one-sided sharp wagers have been on the Ravens.

It’s the ultimate public-sharp divide, Pros vs, Joes, or wise-guys vs. squares to the extreme.

If a few of the popular public favorites cover on Sunday, such as the Seahawks (-5 vs. Buccaneers), Packers (-3 at Chargers), Browns (-3.5 at Denver), it will make the Patriots risk go through the roof. As of Friday afternoon, just about every book is lopsided with larger wagers on the Ravens.

The sharp-public divide is also happening in two of those games.

“We took Bucs action at +6 for $30,000 and we’ve also taken some Chargers,” DiTommaso said of respected money plays.

One of the biggest disparities at William Hill is the 2-5 Browns with 95 percent of the action at 2-6 Denver. Apparently, third-year QB Brandon Allen making his first NFL start is a big deal to the public. But did they see Joe Flacco in action for most of the season? There can’t be that much of a drop-off, especially since Allen is far more mobile and the Broncos defense has put them in situations to win almost every week.

CG books posted the Broncos as 1-point favorites in their early lines last week and currently has the lowest number with the Browns -3.5 several books have -4.

“I don’t think there’s that much of a difference between the two,” DiTommaso said. “The guys in the office and I were talking about Flacco’s worth to the number and we all kind of agreed he was maybe a point or 1.5, but certainly not 4 points.”

DiTommaso adjusted the Browns to -3 on Tuesday despite not agreeing with it because of the market. There’s no reason to go below the most key number in the NFL if everyone else is higher, but it looks like he’s staying on the cheaper side of the market waiting for Browns money to push him.

To clarify, Allen has never thrown a pass in the regular season, but he spent the last two seasons with the Rams and picked up some good habits. As for the defense, they’ve quietly been ranked No. 4 by allowing only 304 ypg. Six of their eight games this season have stayed under and 10 of their last 11 at home have stayed under. The total is a steady 39.

DiTommaso also said he took a large wager on the Bears +5 at Philadelphia and currently has the Eagles -4.5 while other books at Circa and Caesars have the Eagles -4.

Up north at the Atlantis Reno book director Marc Nelson says he’s taken some large respected money on the Redskins (+10 at Buffalo) and his most popular bets made in tickets counts have been the Seahawks, Packers, and surprise-surprise, the Patriots.

It’s going to be a fun week to watch unfold knowing the public is due for a big week. The big public parlay week always happens once or twice a season in the NFL, but hasn’t yet through eight weeks.

[Udog]

NFL Week 9 Sunday odds and line moves: Public on Patriots, sharps on Ravens
Patrick Everson

NFL Week 9 features a Pros vs. Joes wagering battle in the Sunday night game. We check in on the action and odds movement for that contest and three others, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.

PATRIOTS AT RAVENS – OPEN: +4; MOVE: +3.5; MOVE: +3

The last time New England lost, many of us were still buttoning down our holiday shopping. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots are on a 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS spree, with their last loss coming in mid-December. In Week 8, the Pats (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 27-13 as 9.5-point favorites.

Baltimore is atop the AFC North with a 5-2 SU mark, but is the exact opposite with the spread, at 2-5 ATS. The Ravens are on a three-game SU streak and coming off a bye, following an impressive 30-16 victory over Seattle as 3-point road underdogs.

The sharps are on the Ravens and the public is on the Patriots, and Shelton expects the book to be with the wiseguys in this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

“I’m surprised we’re still at Patriots -3. I can’t imagine this closes at 3,” Shelton said, noting his expectation that the line is heading upward. “But right now, the money is really close. Ticket count is 3.5/1 Patriots. It’s got all day to brew, with parlays and all that. We’re gonna need the Ravens by the night, I’m confident about that.”

PACKERS AT CHARGERS – OPEN: +3; MOVE: +3.5; MOVE: +4

Green Bay is solid on the field and against the oddsmakers, sporting marks of 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The Packers went off as 5-point favorites at Kansas City last Sunday night and withstood a strong charge to win 31-24.

Los Angeles hopes to continue climbing after it halted a 1-5 SU skid in Week 8 (1-4-1 ATS). The Chargers (3-5 SU, 2-4-2 ATS) rallied from a 16-7 third-quarter deficit at Chicago to post a 17-16 victory catching 3.5 points.

“This game is completely one-sided. Sharps and public are piling on the Packers. Ticket count is 15/1, money is 17/1,” Shelton said of pointspread activity, while noting parlays and moneyline parlays also loom large for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. “Everything in the early games is gonna flow to the Packers. I’d say this is the biggest game of the day, except I can’t say that with the Patriots playing Sunday night.”

VIKINGS AT CHIEFS – OPEN: -4; MOVE: NONE

It took until Saturday to get a little clarity, but it appears quarterback Patrick Mahomes won’t be on the field for this 1 p.m. ET kick, after Kansas City activated Chad Henne from injured reserve. That said, Mahomes is still listed as questionable as he recovers from a dislocated kneecap suffered in Week 7.

In Week 8, the Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) rode Matt Moore to a respectable Sunday night showing, but they didn’t have enough for Green Bay, losing 31-24 as 5-point home pups. For the moment, Moore would be the starter and Henne the backup today.

Minnesota is rested and ready, coming off the bye week and on a four-game win streak. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went off as hefty 16.5-point Week 7 home faves against Washington and managed a 19-9 victory, halting a three-game spread-covering streak.

Due to Mahomes’ uncertainty, the line for this game was off the board all week, finally going up Saturday night.

“Not much here, because we hung this so late,” Shelton said. “The line seems right. We hung 4 and nothing really happened with it. We’ve got a little more money on Minnesota, and ticket count is 2/1 on Minnesota.”

BEARS AT EAGLES – OPEN: -4.5; MOVE: NONE

Chicago went 12-4 SU and ATS last season, and while it can still match that SU mark, it would have go 9-0 the rest of the way to do so. The Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) let a 16-7 third-quarter lead slip away against the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 17-16 as 3.5-point home favorites last week.

Philadelphia halted a 2-4 SU and ATS skid with a much-needed Week 8 victory to get back to .500. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) breezed by Buffalo 31-13 laying 1 point on the road.

“It’s pretty much all Eagles, all public,” Shelton said of this 1 p.m. ET meeting. “Ticket count almost 4/1, money 3/1 in favor of the Eagles. Sharps haven’t really gotten involved, and the public doesn’t believe in Mitch Trubisky. It makes sense.”