Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

    Titans 35, Chiefs 32:
    — Mahomes threw for 446 yards in his return from injury.
    — Chiefs lost four of their last six games.
    — Tennessee ran ball 26 times for 225 yards; Henry had a 68-yard TD run.

    — Titans are 5-0 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they do not.
    — Tennessee won its last three home games by total of 10 points.
    — All four Tannehill starts went over the total.

    Browns 19, Bills 16:
    — Buffalo missed 52-yard FG that would’ve tied game; they also missed a 34-yarder.
    — Bills are 5-0 when they score 17+ points, 0-3 when they don’t.
    — Seven of nine Buffalo games stayed under the total.

    — Browns drove 82 yards on 10 plays for winning TD with 1:44 left.
    — Cleveland was for first time in four home games.
    — Browns outrushed Bills; they’re 5-11-1 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.

    Buccaneers 30, Cardinals 27:
    — Cardinals covered five of their last six games.
    — Seven of 10 Arizona games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
    — NFC West road underdogs are 8-1 ATS outside their division.

    — Tampa Bay drove 64 yards in six plays for winning TD with 1:44 left.
    — Bucs converted 7-15 third down plays, Arizona 1-10.
    — Tampa Bay is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite

    Jets 34, Giants 27:
    — In their last four games, Giants allowed four TD’s on defense/special teams.
    — Four of Giants’ last five games went over the total.
    — NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-8 ATS.

    — Jets’ safety Adams scored defensive TD, taking ball out of QB Jones’ hands.
    — Total yardage was 294-267 Jets; lot of points for so few yards.
    — Jets’ first two drives: 22 plays, 121 yards, two touchdowns.

    Falcons 26, Saints 9:
    — Atlanta snaps their six-game losing skid, gets first road win.
    — Falcons are 2-9 ATS now in last 11 games a road underdog, 1-3 TY
    — Atlanta covered seven of last nine post-bye games.

    — Loss ends Saints’ 6-game winning streak.
    — Brees was sacked 6 times; Falcons came into game with only 7 sacks.
    — New Orleans committed 12 penalties for 90 yards, 6 of which gave Atlanta a first down.

    Ravens 49, Bengals 13:
    — Baltimore had two defensive TD’s, has five in their last three games.
    — Ravens won their last five games, scoring 30.0 ppg.
    — Baltimore’s first three drives: 24 plays, 230 yards, three TD’s.

    — Ravens’ defense outscored Bengals’ offense, 14-13.
    — In their last two games, Cincy allowed 12.0/11.0 yards/ pass attempt.
    — Bengals covered once in their last six post-bye games.

    Packers 24, Panthers 16:
    — Green Bay defense stopped McCaffrey at goal line on the last play.
    — Carolina is 4-0 when they score 30+ points, 0-4 when they do not.
    — NFC South road underdogs are 5-8 ATS outside the division.

    — Jones ran ball 13 times for 93 yards, three TD’s.
    — Rodgers threw for 233 yards, no TD’s; Packers converted 4-9 on 3rd down.
    — Next week is Green Bay’s bye week, latest one they’ve ever had.

    Bears 20, Lions 13:
    — Lions’ QB Stafford (back) missed his first start in 136 games.
    — Detroit is 3-5-1, with four losses by 7 or less points.
    — Backup QB Driskel was 27-46/269 in his 6th career start (1-5).

    — Chicago’s first four drives: 15 plays, 25 yards, four punts.
    — Bears converted only 2 of 12 third down plays, Lions 7-18.
    — Win snaps Chicago’s four-game losing skid.

    Dolphins 16, Colts 12:
    — Miami has now led their last four games at halftime, winning last two.
    — Dolphins covered their last five games.
    — Six of last eight Miami games stayed under the total.

    — Hoyer threw INT in end zone first series of game, setting tone for day.
    — Hoyer completed only 18-39 passes, converted 5-13 third down plays.
    — Both teams averaged under 5.0 yards/pass attempt, in a dome.

    Steelers 17, Rams 12:
    — Rams scored a defensive TD 0:14 into the game, their only TD of the day.
    — Rams on 3rd down: in wins, 35-73 (47.9%), losses 8-45 (17.8%)
    — LA’s last four games stayed under the total.

    — Steelers won their last four games after a 1-4 start.
    — Pitt is 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 3-0 TY
    — Defenses scored 16 of the 29 points in this game.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

      DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

      11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
      11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
      11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
      11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00

      Totals...................21-23-1.........47.72%..........-21.50


      *****************************

      BEST BETS:

      DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

      11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
      11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
      11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
      11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00


      Totals.....................11 - 7............+16.50...........5 - 13..............-46.50............-30.00



      *******************************

      NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

      Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50

      BEST BETS:

      DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

      Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • NFL Today, Week 10
        November 10, 2019
        By The Associated Press


        SCOREBOARD

        Monday, Nov. 11

        Seattle at San Francisco, 8:15 p.m. EST.
        The top two teams in the NFC West meet in primetime. The 49ers (8-0) snapped a 10-game skid vs. Seattle with a win in the second meeting last season. ... The Seahawks are 27-5-1 in prime-time games under Pete Carroll, including 8-2 on Monday nights. ... The Seahawks (7-2) are looking to win their first five road games for the first time in franchise history. ... San Francisco is off to its best start since winning its first 10 games in 1990. ... San Francisco joined the 2013 Chiefs as the only teams in the past 30 seasons to start 8-0 after winning four or fewer games in the previous season.

        ---

        STARS

        Passing

        - Lamar Jackson, Ravens, was 15 for 17 for 223 yards and three touchdowns and a perfect QB rating of 158.3 and added 65 yards rushing, including a spectacular 47-yard TD run in Baltimore's 49-13 win over Cincinnati. Jackson joined Aaron Rodgers and Joe Montana as the only players with three TD passes, a TD run and a perfect passer rating with at least 15 completions in the Super Bowl era.

        - Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, was 36 for 50 for 446 yards and three touchdowns in Kansas City's 35-32 loss to Tennessee.

        - Kyler Murray, Cardinals, was 27 for 44 for 324 yards and three touchdowns and an interception in Arizona's 30-27 loss to Tampa Bay.

        - Daniel Jones, Giants, finished 26 for 40 for 308 yards and four touchdowns in the Giants' 34-27 loss to the Jets.

        ---

        Rushing

        - Derrick Henry, Titans, had 23 carries for 188 yards and two touchdowns in Tennessee's 35-32 win over Kansas City.

        - Aaron Jones, Packers, had 13 carries for 93 yards and three touchdowns in Green Bay's 24-16 win over Carolina.

        - Nick Chubb, Browns, had 20 carries for 116 yards in Cleveland's 19-16 win over Buffalo.

        - Joe Mixon, Bengals, had 30 carries for 114 yards in Cincinnati's 49-13 loss to Baltimore.

        - Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, had 20 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown in Carolina's 24-16 loss to Green Bay.

        ---

        Receiving

        -Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, had 11 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City's 35-32 loss to Tennessee.

        - Michael Thomas, Saints, had 13 catches for 152 yards in New Orleans' 26-9 loss to Atlanta.

        - Christian Kirk, Cardinals, had six catches for 138 yards and three touchdowns in Arizona's 30-27 loss to Tampa Bay.

        - Darius Slayton and Golden Tate, Giants. Slayton had 10 catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns and Tate added four catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns in the Giants' 34-27 loss to the Jets.

        - D.J. Moore and Greg Olsen, Panthers. Moore had nine catches for 120 yards and Olsen added eight catches for 98 yards in Carolina's 24-16 loss to Green Bay.

        ---

        Special Teams

        - Younghoe Koo, Falcons, was 4 for 4 on field goals in Atlanta's 26-9 win over New Orleans.

        - Jason Sanders, Dolphins, was 3 for 3 on field goals in Miami's 16-12 win over Indianapolis.

        - Matt Gay, Buccaneers, was 3 for 3 on field goals and extra points in Tampa Bay's 30-27 win over Arizona.

        - Wil Lutz, Saints, was 3 for 3 on field goals, accounting for all the Saints points in a 26-9 loss to Atlanta.

        ---

        Defense

        - Marcus Peters and Tyus Bowser, Ravens. Peters returned an interception 89 yards for a score and Bowser returned a fumble 33 yards for a touchdown in Baltimore's 49-13 win over Cincinnati.

        - Jamal Adams, Jets, had two sacks, two forced fumbles and returned one of them 25 yards for a touchdown in the Jets' 34-27 win over the Giants.

        - Minkah Fitzpatrick, Steelers, returned a fumble 43 yards for a touchdown and added a game-sealing interception in Pittsburgh's 17-12 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

        - Rashaan Evans, Titans, returned a fumble 53 yards for a touchdown in Tennessee's 35-32 win over Kansas City.

        - Dante Fowler Jr., Rams, returned a fumble 26 yards for a touchdown in the Los Angeles Rams' 17-12 loss to Pittsburgh.

        - Grady Jarrett, Falcons, had 2+ sacks in Atlanta's 26-9 win over New Orleans.

        ---

        MILESTONES

        Ravens cornerback Marcus Peters had an 89-yard interception return for a touchdown in a 49-13 win over the Bengals. Along with Peters' 67-yard interception return for a touchdown in Week 7 and Marlon Humphrey's 70-yard fumble recovery touchdown in Week 9, Baltimore is the first team since 1970 to have a defensive touchdown of at least 65 yards in three consecutive games. Peters has returned six interceptions for touchdowns in his five-year career, tied with Hall of Famer Lem Barney (six) for the second most by a player in his first five seasons in league history. Only Hall of Famer Ken Houston (nine) had more. ... New York Giants rookie quarterback Daniel Jones had 308 yards and four touchdowns while Arizona rookie quarterback Kyler Murray passed for 324 yards and three touchdowns with one interception in Week 10. With Jones and Murray, Week 10 of the 2019 season is the first week in which two rookie quarterbacks each had at least 300 passing yards and three touchdown passes in NFL history. ... New York Jets safety Jamal Adams had two sacks, two forced fumbles and a 25-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown in the Jets' 34-27 win over the New York Giants. Since 2000, Adams is the sixth player to have two sacks, two forced fumbles and a touchdown in a single game, joining Cliff Avril (Week 8, 2011), Jason Gildon (Week 13, 2000), Orlando Scandrick (Week 5, 2019), Jyles Tucker (Week 17, 2007) and Mike Vrabel (Week 8, 2007).

        ---

        STREAKS & STATS

        The AFC North-leading Ravens (7-2) routed the Bengals 49-13 and have won five in a row for the first time since 2013 The Bengals (0-9) dropped their 11th in a row from the end of last season, tying the longest two-season losing streak in club history. They're one loss away from matching the worst start in club history. ... Kansas City coach Andy Reid is 1-8 all-time against Tennessee after the Chiefs lost 35-32 to the Titans. ... The Browns earned their first home win of the season with a 19-16 victory over the Bills. Stephen Hauschka's 53-yard missed field-goal attempt against the Browns with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter was his fifth consecutive miss from 50 or more yards. It's the longest active streak in the NFL. ... The Giants' skid reached six games after a 34-27 loss to the Jets. It's their first six-game skid since 2014. ... The Lions lost for the fifth time in six games after falling 20-13 at Chicago. ... The Buccaneers ended a four-game skid with a 30-27 win over the Cardinals. The Bucs played in their home stadium for the first time since Sept. 22. In between, they played four road games wrapped around a ''home'' game against Carolina in London and their bye week. ... The Falcons ended their six-game slide with a 26-9 victory over the Saints that ended New Orleans' six-game winning streak. ... After beating the Colts 16-12, the Dolphins (2-7) have consecutive victories for the first time since December, the third time in two seasons and their first road win since September 2018. ... The Steelers (5-4) topped the Los Angeles Rams 17-12 for their fourth straight victory.

        ---

        SIDELINED

        Kansas City's injury woes on the offensive line now has extended to ending the NFL's longest active snap streak for right tackle Mitchell Schwartz. The tackle played 7,894 consecutive snaps until late in the first half of Kansas City's 35-32 loss to Tennessee. He hurt a knee with 2:46 left in the second quarter when Patrick Mahomes was sacked by Harold Landry. Since he went down, Schwartz had to leave the field. He tried to walk it off but Martinas Rankin hurt his right knee a play later after sliding over to right tackle. ... The Giants had their own woes on the offensive line. They came into their game against the Jets without right tackle Mike Remmers and center Jon Halapio for the first time this season and the problem grew when left tackle Nate Solder sustained a concussion in the first half. He didn't return. New York also lost cornerback Janoris Jenkins to a concussion. ... Detroit had its own concussion issues as running back Ty Johnson and right tackle Wagner left the game because of the injury. Green Bay lost cornerback Tremon Smith and linebacker Ty Summers to concussions.

        ---

        SPEAKING

        ''They were going crazy: `Oh my God! Oh! Oh.'' - Ravens linebacker Tyus Bowser on Lamar Jackson's dazzling 47-yard touchdown run in a 49-13 win over the Bengals.

        ---

        ''Four games is a long time. I just sat back. Just to be able to watch the guys (in the postgame celebration). ... They ended up doing some one-on-one dancing, which is pretty neat. It's exciting. We enjoy it. It brings you together.'' - Bears coach Matt Nagy after his team ended a four-game skid with a 20-13 win over Detroit.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • 49ers prepare for test of facing Wilson
          November 8, 2019
          By The Associated Press


          SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) The priority when facing the Seattle Seahawks for years was figuring out how to deal with the Legion of Boom and that dominant defense.

          Now the strength for Seattle is Russell Wilson and a dynamic passing offense, creating quite the interesting matchup when the Seahawks (7-2) visit San Francisco on Monday night to take on the 49ers (8-0) and one of the league's stingiest defenses.

          ''I used to love Russell when I was on his team, but he's been creating a lot of nightmares lately,'' said 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, a former assistant in Seattle. ''They're doing a really, really nice job and it's really cool the way those guys work together, because a lot of it is Russell starts scrambling. His throws on the run and all that stuff, his stuff out of the pocket and the way they're married together, and I know they practice it all, it's almost a play and then a play when he starts scrambling, which they work on. The way they've got that thing dialed in is what makes it very unique and what makes it special.''

          San Francisco has completely shut down opponents over the first half of the season, ranking near the top of league in nearly every significant defensive category.

          With a fierce pass rush led by rookie edge rusher Nick Bosa, offseason acquisition Dee Ford and inside pushers DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, have done a good job generating consistent pressure and rank tied for third in the league with 30 sacks.

          When the pass rush hasn't gotten to the quarterback, the coverage in the secondary has been outstanding as well led by former Seahawks star Richard Sherman, who looks to be back to his elite shut-down form after working his way back last year from an Achilles' injury.

          San Francisco has allowed a league-low 138.1 yards passing per game and is also best in the league with 241 yards allowed per game.

          The Niners also rank best in the league in preventing touchdowns in the red zone, allowing them on less than one-third of trips inside the 20, have allowed the second fewest points per game (12.8) and rank tied for fourth with 16 takeaways.

          But much of that came against some offenses that aren't considered among the league's elite with San Francisco beating winless Cincinnati in Week 2, Pittsburgh backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in his first start in Week 3, a dysfunctional Cleveland team the following game, a helpless Washington team in a downpour and another backup quarterback in Carolina's Kyle Allen.

          The defense wasn't as sharp last week against rookie Kyler Murray and Arizona despite winning 28-25. San Francisco allowed a season-high in yards (357) and points, leaving Sherman especially salty.

          ''That was legitimately just not up to our standard of football,'' Sherman said. ''At the end of the day, I think just about everybody who's on our defense would say it. It's different between getting beat while executing and you not executing so you get beat. That was the problem in that game. We were getting beat because we weren't executing. ... I was legitimately upset because it wasn't to our standard of play.''

          They'll have more tough tests like that in the second half of the season with a game against Wilson, a rematch with Murray, and matchups against Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson coming up in the next four weeks.

          Wilson is one of the leading MVP candidates with 22 touchdown passes and only one interception so far and the Seahawks could be even more dangerous with the addition of big-play receiver Josh Gordon.

          Wilson has tormented the Niners countless times over the years, winning 12 of his 15 starts against them, including the AFC championship game following the 2013 season.

          With his ability to extend plays with his legs and turn what seemed to be negative plays into positive ones, the Niners know this won't be easy.

          ''He's one of the better guys at it,'' Buckner said. ''He's done it for a long time. He knows how to dodge guys in the pocket. He has a really good feel of getting his o-line back in places to really help defend him from guys trying to sack him. ... Playing against him for three years, sometimes you feel like you know his escape routes and stuff like that and he'll still end up making you miss. He made me miss a couple last year and I'm still thinking about that.''

          NOTES: TE George Kittle missed his third straight practice with injuries to his knee and ankle and his status for the game remains in doubt. ... K Robbie Gould (quadriceps) also didn't practice. ... CB Ahkello Witherspoon (foot) got back to practice on a limited basis and will be a game-time decision.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • Preview: Seahawks (7-2) at 49ers (8-0)
            Date: November 11, 2019 8:15 PM EDT


            SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Trash talking between Richard Sherman and Michael Crabtree. Barbs traded between coaches Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh. Incredible plays from Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.

            The once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade capped by Seattle's epic win in the NFC title game in January 2014.

            Now for the first time in years, this game between NFC West rivals means a lot again heading into Monday night's showdown between the Seahawks (7-2) and 49ers (8-0).

            'We haven't held up our end of the bargain the last few years, but this is an exciting game,' said 49ers left tackle Joe Staley, one of the only remaining players in San Francisco from the heyday of this rivalry. 'There's a lot riding on this game. It's meaningful. But, at the same token, we can't look at it as anything different. One of the reasons why we've been successful is we haven't changed. We've been doing exactly what we've been doing all year from training camp to now, just continuing to do the same things.'

            This is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014 where both teams have a winning record. Seattle won that game 19-3, prompting a Twitter apology to 49ers fans from CEO Jed York and a turkey celebration dinner for Wilson and Sherman at midfield of San Francisco's home.

            Harbaugh was forced out following the season and the 49ers won just 17 games in the next four seasons, taking most of the steam out of the rivalry.

            But now with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his first start against Seattle after missing both meetings last year with a season-ending knee injury in Week 3 and a much-improved defense in San Francisco, the 49ers have more than enough to match up with Wilson and the Seahawks in coach Kyle Shanahan's third season.

            'They've come a long way in a short time, and Kyle's done a really nice job to turn the corner to get to this point,' Carroll said. 'Just judging off the last couple of years, they've always shown really good signs. This is a high-tech team, they're on their stuff; their schemes, their principles are really good. They've always been that, they just had trouble getting it all together and getting their wins but, they're together now. They really are sharp in all aspects of their team.'

            AIR RAID

            Seattle's pass defense used to be among the elite of the NFL. Now it ranks near the bottom of the league.

            The Seahawks are giving up 278 yards per game through the air, ranking 28th in the league, and have been really bad in the past two games. Seattle gave up 460 yards passing to Matt Schaub and Atlanta two weeks ago, although the yards could be reasoned because the Seahawks built a 24-0 lead and the Falcons were forced to throw in trying to catch up.

            Last week against Tampa Bay may have been more concerning. Jameis Winston was barely pressured by Seattle's meager pass rush and a quarterback with a knack for careless throws made none, throwing for 335 yards and two touchdowns.

            Surprisingly, Seattle is 4-0 this year when allowing more than 300 yards passing, but those four wins are by a combined 15 points.

            REPLACING KWON

            The 49ers suffered a big loss last week when linebacker Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. Alexander had 34 tackles, one forced fumble, one interception and four pass breakups and was considered the heart and soul of the defense. Rookie Dre Greenlaw will replace him.

            'Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him,' starting middle linebacker Fred Warner said. 'He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart.'

            ESTABLISH CARSON

            Seattle proved last week it can establish the run game against the best run defense in the NFL. Seattle rushed for 145 yards against Tampa Bay, led by 105 yards from Chris Carson, the first rusher to top 100 yards this year against the Bucs. When Carson is churning out yards, it creates more opportunity for Wilson to work off play-action. San Francisco is first in the NFL at stopping the pass but just 14th against the run. Getting Carson and backup Rashaad Penny going on the ground will be crucial for the Seahawks to stay away from troubling down and distance situations.

            GETTING HEALTHY

            The Niners should be getting several key pieces back this week, with left tackle Joe Staley expected to return from a broken leg that sidelined him in Week 2. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk could return from a knee injury and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (knee) also might be back.

            KICKING IT

            Seattle has said all the right things about supporting struggling kicker Jason Myers, but the Seahawks would prefer not to see Monday night come down to a crucial kick. Myers missed a pair of field goals and an extra point last week against Tampa Bay. He was wide left from 47 yards, wide right on the last play of regulation from 40 yards and hit the upright with one of his PATs. Myers is just 3 of 8 from 40 or more yards this season. Seattle signed Myers in the offseason to solidify its field-goal kicking, but there's much more inconsistency than expected from a Pro Bowl selection last season.

            The Niners also have questions in their kicking game after Robbie Gould injured his quadriceps in practice Tuesday. The team signed Chase McLaughlin in case Gould can't play.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • Betting Recap - Week 10
              Joe Williams

              Overall Notes

              National Football League Week 10 Results

              Wager Favorites-Underdogs
              Straight Up 5-7
              Against the Spread 3-8-1

              Wager Home-Away
              Straight Up 9-3
              Against the Spread 7-4-1

              Wager Totals (O/U)
              Over-Under 7-5

              National Football League Year-to-Date Results

              Wager Favorites-Underdogs
              Straight Up 89-54-1
              Against the Spread 60-81-3

              Wager Home-Away
              Straight Up 77-66-1
              Against the Spread 62-79-3

              Wager Totals (O/U)
              Over-Under 72-71-1

              The largest underdogs to win straight up
              Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) at Saints, 26-9
              Dolphins (+11, ML +450) at Colts, 16-12
              Titans (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Chiefs, 35-32
              Steelers (+4.5, ML +180) vs. Rams, 17-12
              Jets (+3, ML +130) vs. Giants, 34-27
              Vikings (+3, ML +160) at Cowboys, 28-24

              The largest favorite to cover
              Bills (-10.5) vs. Redskins, 24-9
              Cowboys (-6.5) at Giants, 37-18
              Eagles (-5) vs. Bears, 22-14
              Seahawks (-4) vs. Buccaneers, 40-34 (OT)
              Panthers (-3.5) vs. Titans, 30-20

              Double-Digit 'Dogs BITE!

              -- The Atlanta Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) stunned the New Orleans Saints in NOLA on Sunday during the 1:00 p.m. ET window, while the Miami Dolphins (+11, ML +450)...(hey, weren't they supposed to be tanking?)...shocked the Lucas Oil Stadium faithful with a 16-12 win against the Indianapolis Colts. It actually hasn't been that long since two double-digit underdogs won outright on the same day in the NFL, as the Dolphins and Giants accomplished the feat Oct. 15, 2017.

              The Dolphiins had a little luck, as QB Jacoby Brissett was inactive due to a knee injury, but it's not like QB Brian Hoyer was some rookie nobody who hasn't played before. He tossed three touchdowns last week against a good Steelers defense. The 'Fins just came to play, and have won two in a row, as all of a sudden they look like an NFL-caliber team under head coach Brian Flores, who is putting his stamp on the team. After going 0-4 ATS in the first four games, the Dolphins now have a winning record against the spread, covering each of the past five outings.

              The loss by the Saints might have been even more surprising, as QB Drew Brees looked good in his return last time out before the bye. Both of these teams had two weeks to prepare for each other, and head coach Dan Quinn likely bought himself more time as the head coach with the eye-popping win. The Falcons defense had shown no signs of an effective pass rush, or an ability to stop the pass, but they held the Saints to single digits in the points department. And that's why they play the games.

              Total Recall

              -- The two highest totals on the board were the Arizona Cardinals-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5) and Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (51.5). It was a mixed bag. The Cards-Bucs game was on a good pace from the start, and helped in large part due to a 20-point second quarter, with 10 points for each team. It wasn't a slam-dunk 'over', but a go-ahead touchdown by the Bucs with 1:43 clinched the winning ticket.

              As far as the Falcons-Saints game was concerned, it got off to a slow start and never really threatened to go over. The teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter. Atlanta had two touchdowns in this game, but inexplicably, the Saints had none. Hey, sometimes it's better to lose one like this than by a half-point or on a bad beat.

              There were three games -- the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs-Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers-Green Bay Packers -- which closed at 49. The Chargers-Raiders game ended up going over by a single point, and it was a bit of a bad beat. There were 37 points on the board until the Chargers scored the go-ahead touchdown with 4:02 to go, taking a 24-20 lead. The Raiders charged back and posted the game-winning touchdown with 1:02 to go.

              For the Chiefs-Titans game, it was looking like a close shave at halftime, with a total of 26 on the board, tied 13-13. The teams combined for 16 points in the third quarter, and 25 points in an explosive fourth, as the this game finished as the highest-scoring game on the board. The other game, the Panthers-Packers game, was a close call. The snow picked up in the second half, but it didn't seem to affect the sides too much. Head coach Ron Rivera did go with the 'analytics', going for two down 24-16, eschewing the extra point. While there is debate, especially in the Twitterverse, on whether it was the right call, it definitely wasn't helpful to the over. They needed a touchdown and two-point conversion after it failed. However, had the gamble worked, they would have needed a touchdown and then just the point after for a push. Of course, none of that came into fruition.

              The 'over' hit the first two primetime games of Week 10, coming on the heels of a three-game primetime 'over' sweep in Week 9. The Monday Night Football contest between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) is still pending. The 'over' is just 11-19 (36.7%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

              Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

              In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

              In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

              In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

              In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

              Injury Report

              -- Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (foot) left with a foot injury and was unable to return. The good news is that there were very few other major injuries across the board.

              Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

              -- The Steelers and Browns meet each other Thursday night on the shores of Lake Erie. It still isn't quite the rivalry it was in the past. It's now or never for the Browns. They won in Week 10 against the Bills, and they could get right back into the AFC wild card picture with a win, while dealing their rivals from the Steel City a tough blow with a win. The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five appearances on Thursday, and they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five against divisional foes. The Browns are 5-21-2 ATS in the past 28 against winning teams, and 9-23-1 ATS in the past 33 at home. However, they are 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division and 6-2 ATS in the past eight appearances on a Thursday.

              -- The Falcons host the Panthers on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte, and not many figured Atlanta would be coming off a win in Week 10 in New Orleans, while Carolina would be coming in off a loss. Despite their outright win as a double-digit 'dog the Falcons are still 5-16 ATS in the past 21 road games. The Panthers are still 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven at home against Atlatna. The home team has covered in 10 of the past 13 in this series, too. The under is an impressive 9-2-1 in the past 12 meetings overall, while the under is 17-5-2 in the past 24 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

              -- The Bills look to rebound after their first loss on the road in Cleveland. The Dolphins picked up their first road win in Indianapolis. These teams met in Buffalo back in Week 7, with the Bills favored by 17. Miami covered in a 31-21 loss, and they're less than a touchdown 'dog at Hard Rock against the Bills. Can Miami make it three wins in a row as an outright underdog?

              -- The Jaguars and Colts lock horns at Lucas Oil Stadium, and Indianapolis looks to bounce back after a stunning loss at home. The Jags, meanwhile, are coming off a bye. It's a super important game for the Colts, who just a couple of weeks ago won in Kansas City and were looking like a surprise team in the AFC. How quickly things change. The Jaguars are 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams, but 3-0-1 ATS in the past four coming off a bye. The Colts have covered five straight inside the division. Jacksonville has dominated this series lately, however, going 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four trips to Indy. The under is also 4-1 in the past five battles, and 7-1 in the previous eight in Indy.

              -- The Saints have cashed in 23 of their past 31 games on the road, and they'll be looking to rebound after a stunning loss at home. The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and they have failed to cover in four straight. Total bettors love the Bucs, as they 'over' is 7-0 across the past seven for Tampa.

              -- The Cardinals hit the road looking to avenge a narrow Thursday night loss at home to the 49ers a couple of weeks ago. Arizona is 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall, including 1-0 ATS against the Niners, and 5-1 ATS in the past six on the road. The 49ers are 0-4 ATS in the past four against the Cards, and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home against Arizona. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings with the underdog 5-1 ATS in the past six in the series.

              -- The Chiefs and Chargers will battle at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Monday night. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four Monday appearances, and 20-8 ATS in the past 28 against divisional foes. The Bolts are 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. Kansas City has covered four of the past five in this series, too. The Raiders have appeared twice in this game previously, but neither of these teams have been the opponent. This is both the Chiefs and Chargers first appearance in Mexico. Kansas City was supposed to face the Rams last season, but they game was moved due to poor field conditions. As far as the totals, not much can be gleaned from the past two results, as the total is 1-1. Estadio Azteca is located at an elevation of 2195 meters, or 7,200 feet. That's nearly 2,000 feet higher than Denver, which both teams are more than familiar.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • NFL Week 11 opening odds and early action: Line moves toward Texans in battle vs Ravens
                Patrick Everson

                Lamar Jackson and Baltimore bring a five-game win streak into a Week 11 home tilt against Houston. The Ravens opened -4.5 at The SuperBook, then dipped to -4 as the first move was toward the Texans

                An AFC clash featuring two dynamic quarterbacks highlights the NFL's Week 11 schedule. We check in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

                Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)

                Baltimore is two games clear of the rest of the AFC North and has an MVP candidate emerging at quarterback in Lamar Jackson. After handing New England its first loss, the Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) went to Cincinnati as 10.5-point faves and rumbled to a 49-13 victory Sunday.

                Houston is atop a clogged AFC South, with all four teams within two games of each other. The Texans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) had a bye in Week 10, after breezing by Jacksonville 26-3 catching 1 point on the road in Week 9.

                “We opened Ravens -4.5 and moved down to -4,” Murray said. “The Texans have been great in this position as a road underdog and are coming off their bye week. This is the best game of the morning slate by far.”

                New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)

                New England had a well-timed bye this past week, following its first loss of the season, which actually ended a 13-0 SU (10-3 ATS) dating to last December. The Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) tumbled to Baltimore 37-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 9.

                Philadelphia is just a tick above .500 following its bye week, but is certainly in contention in the middling NFC East. The Eagles (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) topped Chicago 22-14 as a 5-point home favorite in Week 9.

                Aside from a preseason meeting last year, this is the first time these two have met since the Eagles beat the Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl 52. Murray fully expects an overload of Patriots action.

                “We opened it Patriots -3.5,” Murray said. “Interesting game with both teams coming off their byes. The Patriots were exposed in a lot of ways by Baltimore. Books will need the Eagles huge.”

                There were no line moves Sunday night, but the Patriots twice went to -3 (even), then back to -3 flat.

                Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5)

                Kansas City was thought to be the best shot to dethrone New England atop the AFC, but at 6-4 SU (5-5 ATS) faces a key Monday night showdown in Tinseltown. The Chiefs let a 29-20 fourth-quarter lead slip away in a wild finish at Tennessee, losing 35-32 as 5-point favorites Sunday.

                Los Angeles hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, but a win in this prime-time contest would put it right back in contention in the AFC West. In the Week 10 Thursday nighter, the Chargers (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) gave up a late touchdown at Oakland to lose 26-24 laying 1 point.

                “The Chargers got a little banged up on Thursday in Oakland,” Murray said. “The public will be all over the Chiefs, who will likely need to win to stay in first place, assuming the Raiders beat the Bengals on Sunday. The Chargers may as well play a home game out of the country. They don’t have any fans at their games in L.A. anyway.”

                The line settled at Chiefs -4 late Sunday evening.

                Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

                San Francisco (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) still has Week 10 work to do, facing a tough Monday night task at home against Seattle. But the 49ers have very recent tape to work with for Week 11, having played at Arizona in the Week 9 Thursday nighter. In that contest, the Niners got out to a 21-7 lead, then held on for a 28-25 victory giving 10.5 points.

                Arizona is much more competitive than expected under rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie QB Kyler Murray. The Cardinals (3-6-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) have played in seven one-score games, including Sunday’s 30-27 loss at Tampa Bay getting 5.5 points. Arizona is tied with Green Bay for the NFL’s best ATS mark.

                “The Cardinals have been great ATS this season, especially as road ‘dogs,” Murray said. “These two teams just played, and the Cardinals moved the ball pretty well. We may see sharps on Arizona and squares on San Francisco here.”
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • MNF - Seahawks at 49ers
                  Tony Mejia

                  Seattle at San Francisco (-6.5, 47.5), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

                  Monday Night Football is finally putting on a game people should cancel plans for just to make sure they’re able to watch.

                  When the season began, neither of these teams were favored to win even the NFC West, so schedule-makers shouldn’t be taking a bow. In fact, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook had the 49ers at +180 to make the playoffs and the Seahawks at +135. They’re not in the business of giving away money, so few could’ve foreseen that the Week 10 finale would match two of the conference top-four. San Francisco (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) has already dominated once on the Monday stage and is the final remaining unbeaten. Seattle (7-2, 4-5) is off to its best start since opening 11-1 in 2013. The Seahawks, who ironically suffered their second loss that season at the Niners, went on to win the Super Bowl.

                  There’s a very good chance that one of these teams taking the field on what’s expected to be a clear, windy night in Santa Clara will end up in Miami for Super Bowl LIV.

                  The 49ers are the only team in the NFL besides the Patriots with a point-differential of over 100, having outscored opponents 235-102, an average score of roughly 29-13. Five of their victories have come on the road and they’ve only failed to cash three times after surrendering a late touchdown against Arizona last time out to let the Cards pull off a backdoor cover. The 25 points they surrendered on Halloween night were a season-high and more than doubled the output against them over their previous four October games that saw them give up just 23.

                  This will be a major test to see if that defense can rebound, especially since they’ll be going up against the MVP favorite Russell Wilson without LB Kwon Alexander, who has been lost for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn pectoral last Tuesday. Wilson is 24-5-1 in primetime games, making him the biggest winner among QBs in such games since the merger.

                  This is going to be an immense test for Jimmy Garoppolo too. The quarterback was injured last season and had mostly experienced NFL life through backing up Tom Brady, so he is really going through all these big games for the first time. Pete Carroll will have blitzes and disguised defenses up his sleeve to try and force turnovers and spark an issue back up that Garoppolo has only recently been able to overcome.

                  Seattle has dominated the regular-season series in winning 12 of the last 14 meetings – details at the bottom – but lost the most recent matchup last December in a game started by backup Nick Mullens. A Richie James 97-yard kickoff return helped San Francisco find its footing early and it eventually won at home 26-23 to snap a 10-game losing streak in the series. The 49ers are prepared to stop being regarded as a surprise and look to begin their ascent to previous heights.

                  The Seahawks are intent on making sure that doesn’t happen. Wilson’s ability to keep plays alive should prove handy against the conference’s stingiest defense, especially given the pass rushers they bring to the table. He was sacked three times in last season’s loss but will get a new toy to work with in Josh Gordon, who strengthens a receiving corps that has excelled due to the efforts of Tyler Lockett and rookie DK Metcalf.

                  Seattle has won five of six, but only one of its victories has come against a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 4-0 on the road, but all of the games have been close and only one was an upset. This will be a proving ground for both teams, but my expectation is that we’ll be taking the 49ers and Seahawks seriously come January regardless of what transpires at Levi’s Stadium tonight. The divisional rematch will be played Week 17 at Century Link Field on Dec. 29. If the Seahawks are hoping to win the NFC West and compete for homefield advantage come playoffs, they’ll need to find a way to hand San Francisco its first loss here.

                  TOTAL TALK

                  The total on this game opened at 45 and has been pushed up to 47.5 as of Monday morning. Seattle enters this game with a 5-4 ‘over’ mark while San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ produce a 5-3 record. VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David took a closer look at the total for this divisional matchup.

                  “After watching the ‘under’ go 19-10 in divisional games through the first six weeks of the season, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 9-5 the last four weeks and that includes a 2-2 record in Week 10. I believe all things usually balance out in the long run and I would expect more high side tickets to cash in these spots, especially in rematch games.”

                  The ‘over’ went 2-0 in this series last year but the total results have flip-flopped over the past three seasons between the pair. Meaning, the ‘under’ was 2-0 in the 2017 series but the ‘over’ was 2-0 in 2016. The Seahawks have been the more consistent team offensively during this stretch, averaging 27.3 PPG but Seattle isn’t expected to score as many points on Monday. The team total on the ‘Hawks is listed at 20 ½. David believes Seattle will eclipse that number.

                  “After watching some big underdogs connect on Sunday, nothing should surprise you in the NFL anymore and an outright win by Seattle certainly wouldn’t be a stunner. I believe the Seahawks have a shot to win and if they’re going to get the job done, then the offense will have to carry them,” David said. “Seattle has covered six straight games as a road underdog (4-2 SU) and the offense has averaged 28.5 PPG in those decisions. Even though the Niners defense is ranked second in scoring (12.8 PPG), I don’t believe they’ve faced a formidable offense. Wilson has been the best passing QB in the league this season and I believe he’ll expose this unit, similar to what Baltimore did to New England in Week 9 on SNF.”

                  Bettors should note that favorites have gone 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS on Monday Night Football this season while the ‘under’ has produced a 7-3 record. The majority of these results were clear-cut with seven of the 10 decisions decided by double digits.

                  LINE MOVEMENT

                  Seattle Seahawks

                  Projected season win total: 9 (Over +100, Under -120)
                  Odds to win NFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 5/2 to 7/2
                  Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 12/1
                  Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 25/1

                  San Francisco 49ers
                  Projected season win total: 8 (Over -140, Under +120)
                  Odds to win NFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 4/1 to 1/4
                  Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 5/2
                  Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 7/1

                  ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

                  Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

                  "The game got immediate sharp action at -6.5 and pretty good action at 6 both ways. The George Kittle injury didn’t really cause any ripples. I’d think we kick at 6 or 6.5," said Berg, whose valuable observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "It seems like a game where we would prefer the 49ers win but don’t cover."

                  INJURY CONCERNS

                  Kittle’s knee injury finally sidelining him after he’s attempted to play through discomfort over the past few weeks is major news, so unless he suits up at the last minute, San Francisco will look to survive with second-year tight end Ross Dwelley and Levine Toilolo, who is attempting to return from a groin injury. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk, the NFL’s best at his position, will return for the first time since Week 5 and should help soften the blow of Kittle’s absence. Tackle Mike McGlinchey is also returning for the first time in over a month, while veteran tackle Joe Staley is expected back for the first time since Week 2. McGlinchey is the only one of those returning whose availability remains in doubt, so check on that closer to kickoff.

                  Alexander had been tremendous for the defense, so it’s no indictment of rookie Dre Greenlaw that a dropoff is expected. The fifth-round pick from Arkansas will likely be tested often. Corner Ahkello Witherspoon is dealing with a foot sprain and a quad injury, so he’s unlikely to be back in the mix. Kicker Robbie Gould is also dealing with a quad injury and isn’t expected to be available either. Rookie Chase McLaughlin, who worked with the Chargers while Michael Badgley was on the mend, was signed over the weekend to fill-in.

                  Most of Seattle’s concerns lie up front, but it got good news with tackle Duane Brown (biceps, knee) expected to play. Center Joey Hunt is a go. Guard Phil Haynes (ankle) is questionable but likely to play as well, which eases the blow of having lost center Justin Britt and versatile Ethan Pocic in October. Safety Tedric Thompson was also lost for the season last month, so getting safety Delano Hill back would be a plus for the Seahawks, who are healthier than they’ve been in weeks. They’ll also have newly acquired Quandre Diggs out there after he’s been dealing with a hamstring issue, not to mention adding the aforementioned Gordon to the offensive mix.

                  RECENT MEETINGS

                  (Seahawks 12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS last 14, UNDER 8-6)

                  12/16/18 49ers 26-23 OT vs. Seahawks (SF +3.5, 44)
                  12/2/18 Seahawks 43-16 vs. 49ers (SEA -10, 45.5)
                  11/26/17 Seahawks 24-13 at 49ers (SEA -7, 45)
                  9/17/17 Seahawks 12-9 vs. 49ers (SF +13.5, 42)
                  1/1/17 Seahawks 25-23 at 49ers (SF +11.5, 45)
                  9/25/16 Seahawks 37-18 vs. 49ers (SEA -10.5, 42)
                  11/22/15 Seahawks 29-13 vs. 49ers (SEA -13.5, 40)
                  10/22/15 Seahawks 20-3 at 49ers (SEA -6.5, 42)
                  12/14/14 Seahawks 17-7 vs. 49ers (SEA -9.5, 38)
                  11/27/14 Seahawks 19-3 at 49ers (SEA +1.5, 40.5)
                  1/19/14 Seahawks 23-17 vs. 49ers (SEA -4, 40.5)
                  12/8/13 49ers 19-17 vs. Seahawks (SF-2, 41)
                  9/15/13 Seahawks 29-3 vs. 49ers (SEA -2.5, 43.5)
                  12/23/12 Seahawks 42-13 vs. 49ers (SEA -2, 40.5)

                  NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

                  The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 11 currently has the 49ers as a 14-point home favorite against division rival Arizona, which will come in on a three-game losing streak as the lone NFC South team sporting a sub-.500 record. The Seahawks will be on their bye week.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • McCaffrey distraught following loss
                    November 10, 2019
                    By The Associated Press


                    GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Christian McCaffrey was noticeably distraught following the Panthers' loss on Sunday.

                    The MVP candidate sat with his head in his hands in the locker room after he was stopped just short of the end zone as time expired in a 24-16 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field.

                    A brief replay review upheld the call.

                    ''I don't know. It's tough to see when my head's not facing straight,'' McCaffrey said of the final play. ''You've just got to get in those situations and give ourselves a shot, and I didn't get it.''

                    McCaffrey entered the day as the league leader in rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns, total touchdowns and yards from scrimmage. The third-year running back finished Sunday with a relatively quiet 108 yards and a score on 20 carries and 33 yards on six catches. It was his lowest output since Week 6 at Tampa.

                    The Packers' leaky defense entered the day allowing the third-most rushing yards, second-most touchdowns and the fifth-most receptions to the running back position this season. But a week after getting torched by Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler in Los Angeles, Green Bay set out to at least contain McCaffrey.

                    ''Yeah, you know whenever you're playing a talented player like that, he's going to get his yards,'' Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. ''The whole key is try to contain him as best you can because he's one of the elite players in this league. I thought our guys, there were moments where we were giving up some big plays. There was a lot of bend within our defense, but I thought we stiffened up again in the red zone and we made some plays.''

                    Green Bay kept McCaffrey out of the end zone on the last two plays of the Panthers' final drive. Outside of an 18-yard run and an 11-yard reception, McCaffrey was limited to small gains and had to work for every yard.

                    McCaffrey is no longer dominating the field. He ended the night tied with Packers running back Aaron Jones in both total touchdowns (14) and rushing touchdowns (11).

                    ''We all know that Christian is a very talented player, and he's been mentioned in the MVP race. So maybe it's time to start talking about Aaron Jones,'' Aaron Rodgers said.

                    McCaffrey has to quickly put Sunday night behind him with a matchup against division-rival Atlanta next week.

                    ''You've just got to move on, you've got to get better this week,'' he said.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • MONDAY, NOVEMBER 11
                      GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


                      SEA at SF 08:15 PM

                      SF -6.5 *****

                      O 46.5 *****

                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • Books hammer Bettors in Week 10
                        November 11, 2019
                        By Micah Roberts


                        Nevada sportsbooks had a fantastic Sunday of Week 10 NFL action with some books having their best day of the season with underdogs going 7-3-1 against the spread and six 'dogs captured outright victories.

                        “It was our biggest day of the year,” said Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis. “Our best games were the Titans and Falcons winning.”

                        Those were two of the three biggest dogs of the day to win outright and Tennessee's 35-32 win against the Chiefs (-5.5) happened to be the biggest win of the day for most sportsbooks. The 1-7 Falcons gave the Saints (-13.5) their second loss of the season in a 26-9 upset at New Orleans that paid +600 on the money-line.

                        “We basically won every game but one,” said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. “It was our best Sunday so far this season. The NFL continues to be difficult for players. The Falcons and Titans were our two biggest winners.”

                        The other big underdog on the day was the Dolphins (+12) winning 16-12 at Indianapolis which paid +450 on the money-line at CG Technology books. The Colts were playing with Brian Hoyer at quarterback in place of Jacoby Brissett, who was ruled 'out' with a knee injury. The Dolphins have now won two straight after starting 0-7 and have covered their last five games which coincides with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick being in the lineup.

                        “Believe it or not, the public was actually on the Dolphins,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. “Sharp money was on the Colts which was surprising because they rarely lay double-figure spreads in the NFL, and just as rare is the public siding so united with a double-digit underdog.”

                        But the main story of the day was the Chiefs losing. There was a huge amount of risk built throughout last week with the public knowing QB Patrick Mahomes would be starting for Kansas City.

                        “It felt like nine of every 10 tickets written this morning were on the Chiefs,” Kornegay said. “You know, like that last three-hour rush on Sunday before kickoff it seemed like it was on every ticket.”

                        There weren’t a lot of games the books lost with, but one of them was the Browns.

                        “The only game we lost on was the Browns because we took some (larger) bets on the Browns at -2.5 and then the last rush of action was on both teams at 3.”

                        The Browns won 19-16 causing a lot of books to get sided. But a push is what most bettors were hoping for in many instances where the popular favorites were dying with regularity.

                        The other game some books did poorly with was the Packers (-5) winning 24-16 against the Panthers. The spread came down to a Packers goal-line stand in the final seconds, inches away from being another great game for the house.

                        While the Chiefs destroyed a huge amount of parlays on the day and the Saints helped kill a bunch of teasers, the final nail in the coffin for bettors was the Steelers (+4.5) 17-12 home win against the Los Angeles Rams.

                        “The Steelers win made up for the afternoon loss with the Packers covering, “said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso.

                        If bettors would have the foresight to bet the Titans (+220), Falcons (+600), and Steelers (+200) in a money-line parlay in Sunday’s Week 10 NFL action in Nevada, a $100 three-team parlay wager would win $6,620.

                        So after crushing the first 10 games on Sunday, the books found themselves with a chance to give some of the win back with the Cowboys (-3.5) at home against the Vikings. It was all Cowboys action.

                        ”If the Vikings win or cover it’ll be a huge day for us,” Stoneback said before kickoff. “We’ve got a 3-to-1 money disparity on the Cowboys and our ticket counts are 2-to-1 on the Cowboys.”

                        Of course, the Vikings would win 28-24 to complete an amazing day for the house.

                        I don’t know how bettors keep coming strong with cash every week after getting pummeled over and over again, but they are persistent and their big Sunday with popular favorites cashing is going to happen like it always does at least twice a year.

                        It’s on to Week 11, so maybe this is the week.

                        Hang in there, folks!
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • Seahawks knock 49ers from unbeaten ranks with 27-24 OT win
                          November 11, 2019


                          SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Jason Myers kicked a 42-yard field goal after Chase McLaughlin missed a kick earlier in overtime, and the Seattle Seahawks handed the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season with a 27-24 victory on Monday night.

                          Myers gave Seattle (8-2) its second straight overtime win after Russell Wilson got the Seahawks into position with an 18-yard scramble on third-and-3. After being iced by a timeout, Myers delivered one week after missing two field goals and an extra point, putting Seattle right in the thick of the NFC West race with San Francisco (8-1).

                          The Seahawks blew a chance to win the game on the opening possession of overtime when Wilson was intercepted at the 4 by Dre Greenlaw. It was Wilson's second interception of the season and just the second red-zone interception in overtime in the last 25 years, according to STATS, with Jacoby Brissett having the other in 2017 against San Francisco.

                          Greenlaw returned it 47 yards to the Seattle 49 and the Niners moved the ball 20 yards before McLaughlin missed badly to the left on a 47-yard attempt. McLaughlin had made his first three field goals after being signed earlier in the week when Robbie Gould went down with a quadriceps injury.

                          The teams then traded punts, the Seahawks took over at their 36 with 1:25 remaining and drove for the winning score.

                          After the defenses dominated much of the game with each team scoring a defensive touchdown and generating three takeaways apiece, the quarterbacks traded late drives for field goals that set the stage for overtime.

                          Wilson drove the Seahawks 47 yards before Chris Carson was stuffed on third-and-1, leading to a 46-yard field goal by Myers with 1:45 to play.

                          Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners took over from there and used short passes to move the ball down to the 29 where McLaughlin kicked a 47-yard field goal with 1 second left to tie it at 24.

                          Seattle capitalized on a pair of turnovers in the third quarter to take a 21-10 lead. Garoppolo threw a pass that deflected off Kendrick Bourne's hands to Quandre Diggs, who returned it 44 yards to the 16. Wilson scrambled down to the 3 and then lofted a TD pass to Jacob Hollister after avoiding pressure in the pocket to put Seattle up 14-10.

                          On San Francisco's next drive, Jadeveon Clowney beat Mike McGlinchey and knocked the ball out of Garoppolo's hands for a fumble that was recovered by Poona Ford at the 24. Carson ran it in four plays later to make it an 11-point game.

                          The 49ers got back into the game with a big defensive play of their own. K'Waun Williams sacked Wilson, knocking the ball loose to right tackle Germain Ifedi. Ifedi tried to run with the ball but Fred Warner knocked it loose again and DeForest Buckner ran it in 12 yards for the score. Garoppolo then completed the 2-point conversion to Bourne, cutting the deficit to 21-18.

                          The 49ers then tied it on McLaughlin's second field goal of the game.

                          The Niners scored on their first two possessions to take a 10-0 lead but Clowney then returned a fumble by Garoppolo 10 yards for a TD to get Seattle back into the game.

                          BIG PLAY

                          The Seahawks were poised to take the lead into halftime when D.K. Metcalf took a short pass from Wilson and ran it inside the 5. But as he was fighting for more yardage, safety Jaquiski Tartt ripped it out of his hands at the 2-yard line for an impressive fumble recovery.

                          DEBUT PERFORMANCES

                          Diggs started in his first game for Seattle since being acquired last month in a trade from Detroit.

                          Receiver Josh Gordon also made his Seahawks debut after being claimed off waivers last week from New England. He caught a 13-yard pass to convert a third down on the late field-goal drive in the fourth quarter and another to convert a third down in overtime.

                          INJURIES

                          Seahawks: TE Luke Willson left with a hamstring injury.

                          49ers: WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) left in the first quarter. DT D.J. Jones was sidelined later in the first half with a groin injury. LB Azeez Al-Shaair left with a concussion in the third quarter. RB Matt Breida left in the second half with an ankle injury. DL Ronald Blair left the game with a knee injury.

                          UP NEXT

                          Seahawks: Week off before visiting Philadelphia on Nov. 24.

                          49ers: Host Arizona on Sunday.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • Hot & Not Report - Week 11
                            November 11, 2019
                            By Matt Blunt

                            Week of November 11th

                            Last week's piece proved to be right on the money for nearly everything, as post-London teams remained winless ATS this year with both the Bengals and Rams losing SU and ATS, as the two games split the over/under as well. That makes it 5-1 O/U this year for teams post-London trip, and 0-6 ATS for them in that same role, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars being the last two teams to fill that particular role.

                            Week 11 sees Houston on the road to face the same scorching hot Baltimore team that did force Bengals fans to the hard liquor early as I expected, while Jacksonville's also out on the road in visiting a Colts team who can't be thrilled that they just lost to the Dolphins of all teams. Those same post-London numbers would suggest plays on Baltimore and 'over' and Indianapolis and 'over' so keep that in mind as you work through the Week 11 board.

                            With those potential 'play on' spots already in our back pocket for Week 11, there are a couple other specific scenarios applicable to Week 11's contests that should be brought to light.

                            Whether you want to fade them, follow them, or pass on the game all together is up to you, but hopefully these angles can be informative nonetheless.

                            Who's Hot

                            NFL Teams that score 9 points or less (since Week 6) are on a 7-2 ATS run the following week; 12-10 ATS on the year
                            Chalk up this run as a positive for those that are of the mindset that teams are able to bounce back after a bad performance. So often we talk about what a certain team did in their last game, that those results become way more influential the following week then they need to be by far. You see a team get smoked one week and it's just easy to assume that will continue, rather then stepping back and looking at the much larger picture.

                            And in today's edge of NFL being an “Any given Sunday” type league where anybody can win against anyone, it seems to be that teams that don't find a way to get it going offensively, have had minimal issues in bouncing back strong as of late.

                            A game of scoring 9 or fewer points almost always chalks up to a loss – unless you are San Francisco beating up on Washington in extreme bad weather – and nobody in the NFL likes to string losing weeks together. Losing a game when you get beat is one thing, but when teams beat themselves with poor execution and don't even give themselves a chance to win games is where the motivational angle the following week can hold more weight. And given the run for these teams that don't execute on offense – for whatever reason – the following week against the number, they are sides you should be seriously interested in.

                            For Week 11 we actually get three teams alive in this scenario (pending the MNF result), as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins are live in this situation coming off a bye. Those two teams are added by New Orleans in this spot, after the Saints dismal showing as a heavy home favorite vs Atlanta yesterday.

                            Jacksonville's ATS situation becomes more convoluted with this being a 'play on' spot for them, while the post-London situation would suggest a fade. Again another reason to just use trends and runs like this as a mere part of the entire handicapping process, because the Colts – Jacksonville's Week 11 opponent – are in a nice potential bounce back spot themselves after losing to Miami. But Indy's QB situation is still a concern, and it never hurts to pass on a game if there are too many conflicts in the information you find that you believe is important to future success.

                            Washington's been a regular in this scenario all year as they've scored 9 points or less four times now in 2019. The previous three times saw the Redskins go 1-2 ATS the next time out, so they've actually been a loser in a trend that's overall got a winning record this year. At home against the Jets, and off a bye week, the spots don't get much better then that for Washington.

                            And then you've got the Saints who go out to visit Tampa Bay next week in a game where the Saints offense should get “right” again against a Buccaneers defense that gives up points to everyone. That's another division game in this spot (Jax/Indy) being the other, and it's probably one that 'over' bettors should get on sooner rather then later.

                            I say that because, what's interesting about these teams coming off a lackluster offensive performance of 9 or fewer points, is that they have been bouncing back in big ways the following week; if they've got somewhat of a respectable offense.

                            During this 7-2 ATS run these teams are on, they've averaged putting up 23.22 points the following week. That number includes two Washington games of scoring 9 points on both occasions, and the Jets (15 points) and Broncos (13 points) not exactly pulling their weight either.

                            There aren't too many in the NFL market that would say those teams have 'respectable' offenses right now, but the Saints and arguably the Jaguars – now that QB Nick Foles is back – would be at worst in consideration for teams in that discussion. And it might be best to keep that Saints selection on your mind because...


                            Who's Not

                            Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and the NY Jets are a perfect 0-6 ATS this year when coming off a SU win
                            By definition, bad teams become bad teams because they can't string together consecutive wins when you boil it right down. It doesn't matter if you lose every game by 30+ or by a game-winning FG missing/getting blocked every time, 10 weeks into the year, a team's win/loss record tends to tell most of the story. And those four teams listed in the title, are all what I would call “bad” teams this year, and wouldn't you know it, all four of them go into Week 11 off outright wins.

                            I'll start with Tampa Bay, as they are the ones hosting the aforementioned New Orleans Saints this week in a game that fits both of these scenarios. Tampa has been a money-burning team for over a month now, as a 0-5 ATS run the past five has been rough. The Bucs would take respected money for weeks only to come up short in one-possession games in a variety of ways. I got caught backing them this week in a game I expected them to win by more then they did vs Arizona, but it's going to be tough to get on board with them this week.

                            Not only are the Buccaneers 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, they are already 0-1 ATS in that spot when it's the Saints sharing a field with them. New Orleans won the first meeting 31-24 after the Bucs upset the Rams out in LA a week earlier, and with the Saints looking for redemption after laying an egg vs Atlanta, it looks like this is a Saints ATS spot or nothing.

                            Fading the New York Jets this week would follow a similar thought process in that their opponent – Washington – found there way into the “Hot” part of this piece as well. That's two bad teams going up against one another though, and those games can bring a lot of extra headaches in general. But like the game above, it would be Washington or nothing for me there.

                            Cleveland is at home on TNF to face a suddenly surging Steelers team that believes they are still able to catch Baltimore in the AFC North, and I'm just not so sure it happens. The fact that Cleveland still shot themselves in the foot far too often in scratching out a win against the Bills – the Browns went into “force feed Odell Beckham mode” and it ruined the entire flow of the offense – is still highly concerning. If the Browns are going to try and continue to build towards living up to all the preseason hype that they themselves created, winning this game on TNF is a must, and it's a cause for pause on fading the Browns this week. They still are Cleveland though, and are still just 3-6 SU, and like I said, 10 weeks in, a team's record tells most of the story.

                            Finally we get a fade of the Atlanta Falcons in this spot, and this is one where it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta is coming off a convincing win as double digit underdogs, and back on the road for their second straight road division game. They are catching less than a TD against a Panthers team that struggled in the cold yesterday, but probably won't get caught overlooking the Falcons in a similar manner to what we saw from New Orleans on Sunday.

                            Atlanta's win over the Saints is likely going to push some towards taking the points there as a reactionary measure to last week's results. But the Panthers have won their last two games by at least 10 points when they are coming off a SU loss themselves this season, and after this Atlanta defense played well over their heads in holding the Saints down on Sunday, chances are that Falcons unit regresses hard to the defense that allows 28.8 points per game on the year still (28th in NFL).

                            I doubt these 'bad' teams stay winless ATS off a win the rest of the year, but fading all four of them this week should at worst prove to be a break-even proposition. Obviously some appear to be better fades then others (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), but too much information and reasoning behind a specific play isn't always the worst thing in the world.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • Skins QB Haskins to start rest of season
                              November 11, 2019
                              By The Associated Press


                              ASHBURN, Va. (AP) Dwayne Haskins' time has finally come.

                              The Washington Redskins on Monday named Haskins their starting quarterback for the rest of the season. The 15th overall draft pick takes over with Washington 1-8 and the New York Jets up next Sunday.

                              ''We've got a lot of confidence in Dwayne,'' interim coach Bill Callahan said in announcing the much-expected move. ''He's worked hard, he's smart, he studies, he prepares, so this will be a great opportunity for him going forward.''

                              Haskins is 27 of 44 for 284 yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions in three appearances - two in relief and a start Nov. 3 at Buffalo. The Jets game will be his second NFL start.

                              ''It helps to have a full week of preparation where you're the starter,'' second-year receiver Trey Quinn said. ''I'm looking forward to seeing him grow because he's a talent. He's definitely a talent, so sky's the limit right now for him. It's just up to him to take the extra time and learn on his own.''

                              Previous coach Jay Gruden and Callahan had been reluctant to hand the reins over to Haskins because he looked much more like a long-term project than a ready-made professional quarterback. Veteran Case Keenum started seven of the first eight games and longtime backup Colt McCoy the other.

                              But Haskins showed enough in his audition against the Bills to earn the full-time role. Callahan liked Haskins' consistency and decisiveness in completing 15 of 22 passes with a limited playbook.

                              There's also the mere fact that this is becoming a lost season for the Redskins, who are likely to have a top five draft pick and would be wise to see what they have in Haskins.

                              ''He needs the experience,'' Callahan said. ''Let's give Dwayne an opportunity. We're at a juncture where we don't want to be record-wise, so this is a good opportunity for him to take advantage of every (snap) practice-wise and game-wise so we can see growth in his play.''

                              There already has been growth in Haskins from a very raw training camp through this week.

                              ''He's always had an arm, always standing tall in the pocket and is confident in himself and I think the people around him,'' Quinn said. ''Other than that, it's just getting in the pro system and kind of feeling comfortable calling the plays, going through the progressions, making the check at the line and just studying a little extra. Week by week, he's done that.''

                              Keenum is expected to serve as the backup against the 2-7 Jets with McCoy the third QB. Haskins should have another offensive weapon at his disposal with the anticipated return of running back Derrius Guice.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                              Comment


                              • Browns take step in unpredictable season
                                November 11, 2019
                                By The Associated Press


                                CLEVELAND (AP) When the Browns finally reached the end zone after so many embarrassing, empty trips inside the red zone, they also re-discovered Rashard Higgins, their mysteriously lost wide receiver.

                                Perversely perfect.

                                This strange, unpredictable season had another weird moment.

                                Desperate for a win, the Browns found a way and ended a four-game skid on Sunday with a 19-16 win over the Buffalo Bills, a victory that provided relief and perhaps a glimpse of Cleveland's offensive future.

                                Higgins, who had inexplicably gone from quarterback Baker Mayfield's go-to guy last season to coach Freddie Kitchens' doghouse through eight games, caught a 7-yard touchdown pass with 1:44 left as the Browns (3-6) temporarily stopped a season that started with playoff chatter and Super Bowl talk from decaying into a painful coaching search and early discussion about NFL draft positioning.

                                ''It can be a great thing for us,'' said Mayfield, who threw two TD passes and had his second straight game without an interception. ''We still didn't play perfect by any means. We can still learn from the film, move forward and improve. Having a tight victory against a great team is something that we needed, especially at home. Kind of getting the monkey off our back with that one.

                                ''The first win at home in Game 9 isn't something that usually happens, but it can get us going from here.''

                                Some missing pieces emerged for the Browns, namely Higgins and running back Kareem Hunt, who made his debut following an eight-game NFL suspension for two violent, physical off-field altercations last year. Hunt finished with 30 yards rushing and 44 receiving on seven catches.

                                Higgins had been the odd-man out, and he only got more playing time against the Bills because Kitchens benched Antonio Callaway for an unspecified disciplinary infraction.

                                It wouldn't be the Browns without some kind of drama.

                                Hunt's addition to Cleveland's offense had an immediate and dramatic effect. He perfectly complemented Nick Chubb, who ran for 116 yards on 20 carries and buffaloed several Bills defenders on a few runs. A talented receiver, Hunt also became a needed check-down for Mayfield, who didn't force as many throws to star receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.

                                Kitchens has a full offensive toolbox at his disposal. There are no more excuses, and now it's up to Kitchens - and Mayfield - to use this plethora of playmakers wisely.

                                ''Anytime you get two backs in the game, it is tough for defenses to play differently,'' Mayfield said. ''You have to bring a guy down and you are worried about the receivers on the outside.''

                                The two-back set could become Cleveland's bread and butter going forward. The Browns will get a chance to test out their new 1-2 punch on Thursday night when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4), who have shaken off a slow start with four straight wins.

                                WHAT'S WORKING

                                Chubb never batted an eye when Hunt's return threatened to curtail his touches. Against the Bills, the second-year back simply made the most of his chances.

                                He has at least 75 yards from scrimmage in eight consecutive games, the league's longest active streak. Chubb has four 100-yard rushing games this season and his 919 yards rushing are the sixth most by a Browns player through nine games. The top five all belong to Hall of Famer Jim Brown.

                                WHAT NEEDS HELP

                                The closer the Browns get to the goal line, the farther away they seem. Buffalo stopped Cleveland on eight consecutive plays from inside the 2 in the first quarter and on four more inside the 5 in the second quarter before Kitchens opted to kick a field goal following a false start.

                                Chubb was stoned by the Bills on five tries near the goal line.

                                Kitchens isn't changing his approach in the shadow of the uprights.

                                ''I need to call better plays when we get down there,'' he said. ''But I am telling you right now, we are running the ball when we get down there.''

                                STOCK UP

                                Other than getting winded and asking for a sub, Hunt ran with purpose and showed little rust in his first game in nearly one year. The 24-year-old acknowledged being emotional and nervous, but it didn't show.

                                STOCK DOWN

                                Star defensive end Myles Garrett hasn't had a sack in two games, and he was credited with just one tackle Sunday. That's not to say Garrett wasn't disruptive, but he's not making the types of impactful, game-changing plays the Browns need.

                                INJURED

                                Kitchens said his team came through the Bills game ''pretty good for the most part.'' He added defensive end Olivier Vernon remains day to day with a knee injury sustained against Denver.

                                KEY NUMBER

                                4 - A season low in penalties for the Browns, who averaged 10 infractions in their first seven games but have been flagged just nine times the past two weeks.

                                NEXT STEPS

                                A short turnaround before hosting the Steelers, who are in the AFC playoff picture.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X