Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

College hoop teams who are forcing the most turnovers:

— Arizona 27.6%

— Tulane 27.7%

— Arkansas/VCU 29.2%

— Kansas State 29.3%

— Stephen F Austin 31.4%

— Eastern Michigan 31.7%

Quote of the Day
“This is not the time for me [to make a coaching change]. I’m looking ahead at another ballgame. I’m looking ahead at winning four or five straight and helping write a story they will talk about, how it looks like you’re down and out. And I mean that. That’s the way that I’m operating. Every decision that I make over the next month will be with an eye in mind to get us in the Super Bowl now.”
Jerry Jones, after Thursday’s loss to Buffalo

Friday’s quiz
Which two college football teams play annually for the Old Oaken Bucket?

Thursday’s quiz
In bowling, if you get a turkey, it means you rolled three strikes in a row.

Wednesday’s quiz
Georgia basketball coach Tom Crean was Dwyane Wade’s college coach.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…..

13) Buffalo 26, Dallas 15:
— 9-3 Bills might be the most unheralded 9-3 team ever.
— The next few weeks are going to be a good time for Lincoln Riley’s agent, because it is hard to believe that Jason Garrett will be the Cowboys’ coach next year.

12) Saints 26, Falcons 18:
— New Orleans wins NFC South, is first team to qualify for playoffs.
— Atlanta outgained Saints, 348-280, but turned ball over three times in 2nd half.

11) Chicago 20, Detroit 17:
— Lions’ first two drives: 13 plays, 153 yards, two TD’s.
— Lions’ last eight drives: 54 plays, 211 yards, one FG.

10) Lions are 9-18-1 under 2nd-year coach Matt Patricia, who got hired because he worked for New England- they win a lot. Problem is, Patricia didn’t bring Tom Brady with him to Detroit.

Lions fired Jim Caldwell, who went 36-28 in four years with Detroit, making the playoffs twice in those four years. Still an interesting decision, two years later.

9) Michigan 73, North Carolina 64— Wolverines went on a 19-0 run early in 2nd half; they made 11-26 on the arc, and are now 6-0 under rookie coach Juwan Howard.

8) Long Beach State 66, Providence 65— 49ers were a 16.5-point underdog; they were down 17 early in second half. Friars turned ball over 21 times; this is a bad loss for then.

7) Gonzaga 73, Oregon 72 OT— Zags led 24-7 early, but for second day in row, Oregon stormed back and erased a big lead- they led by 4 in OT, but Gonzaga ended game on a 7-2 spurt and will play Michigan in the Atlantis finals Friday afternoon.

6) Marquette 73, Davidson 63— Wildcats had made a 3-pointer in 809 consecutive games, but went 0-15 in this game, which ends the streak. Markus Howard scored 40 for Mar quote, which made 27-38 on foul line (Davidson was 15-23).

Rising star in TV business is former Cincinnati/Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy, who is working the Orlando tournament this weekend. Smart, funny and knows when to be quiet.

5) Harvard 62, Texas A&M 51— Crimson were a perfect 22-22 on foul line, offsetting their 6-29 day on the arc. Harvard moves on to play Maryland Friday.

4) Virginia’s 2nd-leading scorer Braxton Key is out indefinitely after having wrist surgery this week. Cavaliers are 7-0 after smothering Maine 46-26 Wednesday.

3) Patriots kicker Nick Folk had an appendectomy, will miss this week’s game in Houston; former Redskins kicker Kai Forbath is expected to be his replacement.

2) Mississippi State 21, Ole Miss 20— With 0:04 left in the Egg Bowl, Ole Miss WR Elijah Moore caught a 2-yard touchdown pass that cut Mississippi State’s lead to 21-20; the PAT would tie the game.

After he scored, Moore lifted his leg like a dog and pretended to urinate after his score, and got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for excessive celebration, pushing the PAT back 15 yards.

The kicker missed the PAT, Miss State won 21-20 and is now bowl eligible.

1) Penn 68, Central Florida 67— Kid on UCF thought he hit the game-tying 3 at the buzzer, but he was standing behind the wrong arc, and was standing on the 3-point arc. With so many different 3-point lines, he got confused. Good day for the Ivy League.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 13 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Tennessee +2.5 (712)

5) Arizona +3 (723)

4) Jets -3 (879)

3) San Francisco +6 (886)

2) New England -3 (920)

1) Green Bay -6.5 (1.034)

2019 record: 38-31-3

Quote of the Day
“I’ll answer your questions but not your insults. They (Ohio State) played better today.”
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh

Sunday’s quiz
Arizona State football coach Herm Edwards played nine of his ten years in the NFL for which team?

Saturday’s quiz
The Sun Bowl football game is played in El Paso every year.

Friday’s quiz
Indiana-Purdue play football annually for the Old Oaken Bucket.

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Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

13) Auburn 48, Alabama 45— There were five TD’s scored in a 5:03 span of this game, late in 2nd quarter. Score was 31-27 Alabama at halftime. Total in the game was 50.5.

Kudos to CBS sideline reporter Jame Erdahl, who had the unenviable task of Interviewing Nick Saban at halftime, when he…….wasn’t happy after Auburn kicked a last second FG. When I say he wasn’t happy, thats a gross understatement.


— Auburn had two pick-6’s, one a 100-yarder that put Tigers up, 37-31.
— Alabama ran the kickoff after the first pick-6 back 100 yards for a TD.
— Alabama outgained Auburn 515-354.
— Penalties: Alabama 13-96; Auburn 9-60.
— Alabama missed a 30-yard FG off the left upright with 2:00 left.

12) Indiana 44, Purdue 41 OT— Hoosiers’ QB Ramsey started for Indiana the last two years, then lost his starting job this offseason; instead of transferring, like so many college QB’s do when they lose their starting job, Ramsey stayed at Indiana because likes his teammates. The other QB got hurt, and Ramsey made the most out of getting his job back.

Indiana winds up wth a winning record in conference play for first time since 1993.

Purdue QB O’Connell is a walk-on who started this season as the 4th-stringer; he threw for 408 yards, three TD’s in a losing cause.

11) Ohio State 56, Michigan 27— Buckeyes win this rivalry game for 8th year in row (4-4 ATS); they’ve scored 118 points in last two meetings, 30+ points in last seven.

10) Syracuse 39, Wake Forest 30 OT— From all we can tell, Orangemen are only 2nd team to score a defensive TD in OT while they were protecting a lead; Arizona State did it against USC 20 or so years ago.

9) Duke 27, Miami 17/Florida 40, Florida State 17:

Miami and Florida State are both 6-6, which is both disappointing and surprising; they’ve got to recruit their home state better. Lot of good high school players in Florida, but everyone recruits the Sunshine State, and hard.

8) Missouri fired football coach Barry Odom, who went 50-50 in four years in Columbia, but lost five of his last six games this season. Still not sure why Missouri left the Big X for the SEC— lack of playing longtime rivals like Kansas/Nebraska has hurt their attendance.

7) Football upsets:
— West Virginia (+13.5) 20, TCU 17
— South Alabama (+10.5) 34, Arkansas State 30
— Duke (+8.5) 27, Miami 17
— Boston College (+8) 26, Pittsburgh 19
— UNLV (+7) 33, Nevada 30 OT
— Northwestern (+7) 29, Illinois 10

6) Cincinnati 72, UNLV 65 OT— Bearcats played their 3rd straight OT game, rallying back from down 33-24 at the half. UNLV was 0-3 in OT games in November; they had four guys play 36:00+.

5) Ohio U 91, Detroit 81— Detroit G Brad Calipari sat out LY, after sitting on his dad’s bench at Kentucky the two years before that. He wanted to play, so he transferred to Detroit, where he is playing 22.2 mpg, scoring 6.2 ppg, making 40.7% of his 3’s.

4) Florida State 63, Purdue 60 OT— Seminoles win Emerald Coast Classic, winning both games this weekend by 3 points. FSU has won seven games in a row since losing their opener at Pitt.

3) Basketball upsets:
— North Dakota (+10.5) 80, Georgia Southern 68
— Prairie View (+8.5) 79, UTSA 72
— Cal-Northridge (+7.5) 73, Fresno State 72
— Navy (+7) 76, Brown 56
— Fort Wayne (+6.5) 71, Grand Canyon 60
— St Francis PA (+6.5) 79, St Joe’s 63
— Northern Arizona (+6) 76, South Dakota 72
— NC-Greensboro (+6) 65, Georgetown 61

2) Richmond 64, Boston College 44— Spiders won six of their first seven games after going 25-40 the last two years; they’ve got wins over Wisconsin, Vandy, BC, power-5 wins.

1) They may have played schedule #350 so far (out of 353), but Liberty is one of only 20 unbeaten teams left in the country, and that is surprising. Flames are 9-0 already.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


THE PACKER SLAYER

Tell me if you’ve heard this one: the Giants’ receivers are questionable. This week, Golden Tate has been added to the list with a concussion as he joins TE Evan Engram with questionable tag. Sterling Shepard did dress last week but never did anything big with a long gain of six yards. The one player who has taken advantage of all the extra reps has been WR Darius Slayton.

Slayton has gone from 45 percent of the snaps early in the year to 90 percent over the Giants' last six games and is Daniel Jones’ main deep threat. Slayton has seen 21 targets over the last two weeks and has averaged nearly 15 yards per reception.

Green Bay allows the seventh-most passing yards on the road and showed in San Francisco last week that they’re susceptible to the big play. We’re banging the Over on Slayton’s receiving yard total on any number below 73 yards as the markets are waiting to see what happens with Tate and Engram before they open.


FOURNETTE FEATURES

Since Nick Foles has “taken back over” the starting QB job two weeks ago, Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette has amassed 19 targets for 16 grabs and 96 yards receiving. He also toted the rock 24 times for 97 yards against a tough Titans defense last week. The Jags will have one of the best offensive matchups a team can have as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday.

The Bucs are giving up 380 yards of total offense on the road this year (24th most) and with Foles looking short constantly (6.2 yards per pass attempt), Fournette could take advantage in the passing game. Tampa Bay actually has the league’s best DVOA rush defense, so we will shy away from any Fournette rushing props.

We are taking the Over 37.5 Fournette receiving yards as similar dual-threat running backs have had success against Tampa Bay in the air.


TD TV

The biggest game of the week will see the San Francisco 49ers travel to the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore is putting up over 450 yards of offense a game over its last three while San Francisco is putting up 380 yards this year. Both sit No.1 and No.2 in touchdowns scored a game and average drive length.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been steamrolling the opposition in their last five games, winning by an average score of 40-12. In those five games, the offense is averaging over four TDs a game while the defense has scored five TDs of its own. San Francisco has been impressive as well as it have scored at least four TDs in four of its last five games.

These two defenses can shut it down as they rank Top-4 in Wtd DVOA defense at FootballOutsiders. But these defenses compliment their electric offenses as each unit can force the three-and-out early in drives and get great field position as a result. The 49ers have the second-best starting field position while the Ravens have the ninth-best.

We are playing the Over 5.5 total TDs for plus money (+120)


CHRISTIAN CARRIES CAROLINA

The Washington Redskins are giving up the second-most rushing attempts per game this year at 32.3. Over their last three games, that number has ballooned to 35 and on the road that number is a league-worst 33.2. Sometimes it is safer to bet on volume than results.

No running back in the league is having a better season than Carolina's Christian McCaffrey. He’s second in rushing attempts, first in rushing yards, has the third-longest run by a running back, and has the most rushing TDs. He also has more receiving yards than Juju Smith-Schuster and – the cherry on top of it all - is a 99 rating in Madden.

There’s no reason that the Panthers don’t give CMC enough carries to eclipse his total of 20.5 rushes especially with Carolina expected to play with the lead.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Julian Edelman isn't among New England's flu-bitten players, but he's questionable to play at Houston due to a shoulder issue. The SuperBook estimates Edelman is worth a half-point to the line.

NFL Week 13 apparently finds a boatload of Patriots dealing with the flu as the team prepares to face the Texans. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: During Thanksgiving week, someone apparently gave thanks by spreading the flu around the Patriots’ locker room, with several players taken ill. Osterman said that didn’t impact the line at his shop, but wideout Julian Edelman (shoulder) – listed as questionable Friday – would make a difference. “Edelman would be a big loss for the Patriots. He’s worth a half-point,” Osterman said. On Friday night, New England was at -3 (-120), with a total of 45.5, for the Sunday night game at Houston.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Center Matt Skura’s season ended with a knee injury last week in a road rout of the Los Angeles Rams. That made undrafted rookie Patrick Mekari the new starter, in what may or may not become an issue. “Skura being out doesn’t necessarily affect this week, but we will be evaluating the offensive line without him to see if there may be some drop-off going forward.” The Ravens are 5.5-point home favorites against the 49ers.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Wideout Dante Pettis (knee) is out at Baltimore, while kicker Robbie Gould (quadriceps) returns after missing three weeks. However, The SuperBook didn’t adjust off either update, with the Niners a 5.5-point underdog.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) is questionable at home against the Rams. “We didn’t move off the Murray news. We’ve had some sharp action on the Cardinals. I would expect him to go.” On Friday night, Arizona was +2.5, with a total of 47.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: T.Y. Hilton, who missed three games before returning last week at Houston, has a calf injury and will sit out at home against the Titans. “Hilton is worth a half-point to a full point. We took some sharp action Thursday night on Tennessee, right before the news broke. The line has since gone down even more.” The Colts were at -2.5 Thursday morning and dropped to pick by Friday morning, before going back to -1. Running back Marlon Mack (hand) is also out, but Osterman said that half-point was built into the original line of Colts -3.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: A combination of injuries and an undrafted rookie starting at quarterback this week created plenty of movement in the Browns-Steelers line. Pittsburgh won’t have wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion/knee), and running James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful. Mason Rudolph was pulled at QB, making way for Devlin Hodges. “All of those things contribute to the big line move in this game,” Osterman said of a line flipping from Steelers -1.5 to Browns -2. “That’s mostly due to the quarterback. Connor and Smith-Schuster would account for a half-point combined.”

CINCINNATI BENGALS: It’s not an injury, but Andy Dalton returns to the starting role at home against the Jets, after Bengals coach Zac Taylor ended the Ryan Finley experiment. “Dalton is worth 1 point to the spread. We went from +4 to +3 on that when he was announced the starter.”

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Tight end Zach Ertz (hamstring) and running back Jordan Howard (shoulder) are both questionable at Miami, but that didn’t influence The SuperBook’s oddsmaking team. “No move on Howard and Ertz.” In fact, Philly – which opened -7.5 – moved from -9.5 to -10 Friday.


Weather Watch

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: Rain is all but guaranteed Sunday, but Osterman said that hasn’t made an impact yet. In fact: “We’ve even been getting some play on the Over.” The total opened 46.5, dipped to 45.5 Tuesday, then returned to 46.5 before ticking to 46 Friday afternoon.

NEW YORK JETS AT CINCINNATI: Rain and wind in the mid-teens is expected in the afternoon/evening in Cincinnati. “I think we would have seen some movement on the total, but when Andy Dalton got announced as the Bengals’ starter, things got balanced out.” The total was at a high point of 41.5 Friday, after opening 41 and going as low as 39.

GREEN BAY AT NEW YORK GIANTS: Sunday brings with it a 100 percent chance of snow-to-rain precipitation. “We have seen the total come down, from 46.5 to 44.5.”

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Rain is fully expected at Heinz Field. “The total has come down, some due to the weather and some due to Devlin Hodges being named the starter” at quarterback for the Steelers. The total opened 40.5 and has been at 38.5 since Wednesday.

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY: It’ll be cloudy, cold and windy at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. “The total has come down a lot, from 54.5 to 51.”
Pros vs. Joes

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: “The only one that really stands out” as Pros vs. Joes, Osterman said. “The public seems to be fully on the Ravens bandwagon, but the line has slowly moved toward the 49ers. Almost all of the market was at Ravens -6 early in the week, and now there are even some -5s starting to show up. We have been at Ravens -5.5 since Wednesday morning, and we’ve seen a steady flow of Ravens parlay money all week.”
Reverse Line Moves

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: “We’re seeing money on the Steelers, even though the Browns are favored now. I guess there are some people willing to back the Steelers, even with Devlin Hodges at quarterback.” It’s a rematch of the Week 11 Thursday night game that ended with a brawl. Pittsburgh is a 2-point underdog, after opening as 1.5-point chalk.

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: As Osterman alluded to in Pros vs. Joes, the Ravens are drawing the bulk of the cash, but the line is starting to trend toward the underdog 49ers. Baltimore peaked at -6.5 early in the week and has sat at -5.5 since Wednesday.


Pros vs. Joes

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: “The only one that really stands out” as Pros vs. Joes, Osterman said. “The public seems to be fully on the Ravens bandwagon, but the line has slowly moved toward the 49ers. Almost all of the market was at Ravens -6 early in the week, and now there are even some -5s starting to show up. We have been at Ravens -5.5 since Wednesday morning, and we’ve seen a steady flow of Ravens parlay money all week.”


Reverse Line Moves

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: “We’re seeing money on the Steelers, even though the Browns are favored now. I guess there are some people willing to back the Steelers, even with Devlin Hodges at quarterback.” It’s a rematch of the Week 11 Thursday night game that ended with a brawl. Pittsburgh is a 2-point underdog, after opening as 1.5-point chalk.

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: As Osterman alluded to in Pros vs. Joes, the Ravens are drawing the bulk of the cash, but the line is starting to trend toward the underdog 49ers. Baltimore peaked at -6.5 early in the week and has sat at -5.5 since Wednesday.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 13
Joe Williams

It's Week 13 of the National Football League regular-season schedule, as we've hit the holidays and are heading for the home stretch. The 'under' got off to a 2-1 start this week with our three Thanksgiving Day features, as the lowest total on the board went 'over' while the primetime battle between the New Orleans Saints-Atlanta Falcons saw the 'under' cash tickets yet again in a game under the lights..

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 12 5-9 5-9 5-8-1

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 84-91-1 81-94-1 77-94-5

The totals went 9-5 in favor of the 'under' last week, or in other words, in favor of the books. The public generally stays away from the risky proposition which is the 'under' and tends to gravitate toward the cushy, safe and relaxed feeling of an 'over.' As I always say, once it is over, it's over, but the under you have to sweat out until there are all zeroes on the clock. Under betting isn't for the faint of heart.

The 'under' theme was common in both the first-half (9-5) and second-half (8-5-1) in Week 12 as well. On the season, the low side has trended ahead in both the first-half (81-94-1) and second-half (77-94-5).

Division Bell

In the five divisional battles in Week 12, the slight edge went to the 'over' - including NFC South battle between the New Orleans Saints-Carolina Panthers in Charlotte which coasted well 'over' the number. The under is now 32-27 (54.2%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's results in Week 13 between the Bears and Lions, as well as the Saints and Falcons.

Divisional Game Results Week 12
Indianapolis at Houston Under (46.5) Houston 20, Indianapolis 17
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Under (37) Pittsburgh 16, Cincinnati 10
Carolina at New Orleans Over (46.5) New Orleans 34, Carolina 31
Tampa Bay at Atlanta Over (51.5) Tampa Bay 35, Atlanta 22
Tennessee at Jacksonville Over (42) Tennessee 42, Jacksonville 20

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 13 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Oakland at Kansas City: 54 ½ to 51
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants: 47 to 45
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 40 ½ to 39
New England at Houston: 44 ½ to 46
Philadelphia at Miami: 46 ½ to 45
Tennessee at Indianapolis: 42 to 43 ½
Washington at Carolina: 41 to 39 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 13 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Oakland at Kansas City: Under 93%
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: Over 87%
Philadelphia at Miami: Under 84%
New England at Houston: Over 76%
L.A. Chargers at Denver: Under 73%
Tennessee at Indianapolis: Over 73%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (69 percent) in the Washington at Carolina matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Cleveland at Pittsburgh (61 percent) contest.
Handicapping Week 13

Week 12 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-2 26-30
NFC vs. NFC 0-4 18-21
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 16-16-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 25-23

Week 13 Action

Green Bay at N.Y. Giants: The public has been jumping all over the Packers, driving the line up significantly over the Giants. But what about the total? Well, the over is 20-9 in Green Bay's past 29 games on the road. The good news is that this is not in the state of California, a place which has been their kryptonite. The Packers are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread in the Golden State, and the under also 2-0 in their two roadies in Cali, and the 'over' is 2-1 in the other three road games. The over is also 2-0 in Green Bay's previous two this season against NFC East foes. For the G-Men, this will do it against the NFC Central. The 'under is 2-1 in their previous three, hitting the under in their only game at Met Life Stadium vs. Central. The under is 4-1 for the Giants at home this season, as they have scored 14, 24, 10, 21 and 18.

San Francisco at Baltimore: The 49ers head east to battle quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in a highly-anticipated matchup of defense vs. offense. It is the fourth and final foray into the Eastern Time Zone for the 49ers this season, and they're 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS with the 'under' going 2-1. As far as Baltimore is concerned, it's all over all the time. The over is 3-1 in the past four games overall, but the under is 3-2 in their five games at M&T Bank Stadium this season. While everyone is talking about the quarterback and offense, which has totals of 30, 37, 49, 41 and 45 in the past five weeks, look what the defense has done. They've allowed 26 total points - or 8.7 PPG - across the past three outings.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: Ever since making the change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill, the Titans offense has been on fire. They scored 17, 7, 24, 7 and 0 in Mariota's final five starts, averaging 11 PPG of offense in his final five outings. In the five games since Tannehill has taken the reins of the offense, the offense has posted 23, 27, 20, 35 and 42. That's the 'over' hitting in five straight with Tannehill, and the offense appears to be getting better each week. The good news for total bettors, in particular those who love the 'over', the defense has yielded 20 or more points in each of the past five, too. This is a rematch of the Week 2 game in Nashville which saw the Colts win 19-17, an 'under' result. Again, Mariota was at the helm in that one, so not much to glean here. The under is 11-3 in the past 14 battles in Indianapolis, too, but again, most of those games featured Mariota or QB Andrew Luck, neither of whom will be starting Sunday. Looking to more recent trends, the over is 5-0 in Tennesse's past five, the over is 4-1 in their past five against winning teams and the over is 5-2 in Indy's past seven at home.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville: The Jags were tuned up in Nashville by the aforementioned Titans, falling 42-20 as the 'over' hit. The Jags defense has gone south over the past three outings, all divisional games, yielding 26, 33 and 42. The Bucs have an offense capable of moving the ball early and often, while also yielding plenty of points along the way. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 in the past nine outings, with the last 'under' for the Bucs in Week 2 in Carolina. The Bucs defense has allowed 22 or more points in nine straight games, so perhaps QB Nick Foles and the Jacksonvile offense finally gets untracked in this one.

N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: The QB Ryan Finley experiment is over, as head coach Zac Taylor announced the Bengals are going back to veteran QB Andy Dalton as their starter for this one. The Bengals averaged just 7.7 PPG in three games under Finley, while posting 18 PPG in eight starts under Dalton, at least looking like a semi-functional offense at times. The under is 5-2-1 in Dalton's eight starts, although the over is 2-0-1 in his three starts at home. The under was 2-1 in Finley's three on-the-job training spots. The Jets held the Raiders to three points last week, slapping the brakes on a 4-0 'over' run. In five games on the road this season, New York has posted a 4-1 over mark, and they have score exactly 34 points in each of their past three outings.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: It's a rematch of two weeks ago, as the Browns and Steelers square off at Heinz Field in a super-important game in the AFC wild-card picture. The Steelers can deal the Browns a disastrous blow with a win, while the Browns can grab a head-to-head advantage over the Steelers with a win. The last time these teams met, we all know about the Myles Garrett situation. However, the guy he tried to bludgeon with a helmet is carrying a clipboard this week. QB Mason Rudolph has been benched in favor of undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges. He led the Steelers to a win in place of an injured Rudolph on the road against the Chargers back on Oct. 13, a 24-17 win and 'under' result. He came off the bench and led a charge in Cincinnati, also a 16-10 win and 'under'.

L.A. Rams at Arizona: The Rams offense continued to flounder in their 45-6 loss on Monday night against Jackson and the Ravens, as L.A. is averaging just 11.7 PPG across the past three outings. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six, too. This is the first of two meetings in the next five weeks between these two. The under has connected in five of the past seven meetings in this series, although none of those games included the dynamic rookie QB Kyler Murray, who continues to improve. The under is 5-1 in L.A.'s past six overall, and 7-2 in the past nine road games. The under is also 4-0 in Arizona's past four following a bye week, too.

L.A. Chargers at Denver: The Broncos have reportedly been doing everything to prepare rookie QB Drew Lock for his first NFL start, although, officially, the starting signal caller is undecided for head coach Vic Fangio as of Saturday morning. It appears the QB Brandon Allen experience might be over, however. He started for three games, helping the team register 15.7 PPG over the past three outings. The Broncos won the first meeting in L.A. by a 20-13 score, but that was QB Philip Rivers vs. Joe Flacco, not Rivers vs. Lock. It will be interesting to see what the rookie from Missouri can do, but total bettors might want to shy away from this one until we get a little more information on him.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 13, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 39 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Carolina (1:00 p.m. ET): The Redskins continue to tick off 'under' results fairly regularly, and it hasn't mattered who is under center. The team scored 19 points last week in a win, and believe it or not that was the highest total since Week 2 vs. Dallas. Their season high of 27 points came in the regular-season opener and it's been all downhill from there. Since Sept. 29 the Redskins have scored 3, 7, 17, 0, 9, 9, 17 and 19, or an average of 11.6 PPG. It's no surprise the 'under' is 7-1 during the span. As far as the Panthers are concerned, they're a rather erratic team. In nine starts with QB Kyle Allen under center, the 'over' is 6-3. However, the offense has mustered just 16.7 PPG across the past three outings. The Redskins have hit the under in each of their past four instances as a double-digit underdogs, however, and that knowledge by bettors is likely what's driving the line down.

Philadelphia at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The Dolphins are double-digit 'dogs at home for the third time this season. The under hit in each of the first two instances, and the under is 5-2 in the first seven time the Dolphins have been underdogs by 10 or more points. For Philly, they've lost their way on offense, mainly due to a bevy of injuries, while the defense has been locking it down. As such, the under is 3-0 across their past three outings. During that span the offense is averaging just 13.7 PPG while allowing 12.7 PPG.

Oakland at Kansas City (4:25 p.m. ET): The Raiders and Chiefs met in the Black Hole back in Week 2, with Kansas City posting a 28-10 and 'under' result. The under is 2-1 in Oakland's first three AFC West Division battles. As a road underdog the over is 3-1 for the Raiders, however, while the Chiefs have hit the over in four of their five games at Arrowhead, even when QB Patrick Mahomes was on the shelf. As a home favorite the 'over' is 2-1 for the Chiefs, and the offense is averaging 23.3 PPG with the defense yielding 26.0 PPG. The under is 20-7 in Oakland's past 27 inside the division, however, while going a perfect 4-0 in Kansas City's past four against AFC West foes. In this series the under is hitting to the tune of 17-5 in the past 22 at Arrowhead, and 21-8 in the past 29 meetings overall.

Under the Lights

New England at Houston (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Texans are back under the lights in a great measuring stick game against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Texans have actually hit the 'under' in four straight, and they're scoring just 20.0 PPG during the span while allowing 21.3 PPG, 14.7 PPG if you take out a 41-point outburst by the Ravens in Week 11 which skewed things slightly. The under is actually 8-1 for Houston's past nine at NRG Stadium in Houston, and 20-7 in the past 27 against AFC foes. For the Patriots, they're a friend of the under bettor because of their sturdy defense, especially on the road. The under is 4-1 in the past five overall, 10-2 in the past 12 in December and 25-10 in the past 35 on the road.

Minnesota at Seattle (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The 'over' has cashed for Minnesota in each of the past three, with the offense posting 26 PPG and the defense yielding 24.3 PPG. In fact, the over is 5-1 across the past six overall for the Vikings. For the Seahawks, as a home favorite of less than a touchdown this season, the over is 3-1. However, the trends for both of these teams on Monday nights points to the under. The under is 6-1 in Minnesota's past seven appearances on MNF, while the under is 7-3 in the past 10 for Seattle on Monday.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 13
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0 ATS (4.75 ppg) since Oct 30, 2011 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Titans are 0-12 ATS (-9.62 ppg) since Dec 19, 2004 on the road coming off a game where they had a player with at least 124 receiving yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-7-1 ATS (-3.12 ppg) since Sep 25, 2016 coming off a road game where Jameis Winston had at least two interceptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 14-0 OU (10.29 ppg) since Oct 22, 2017 as a dog coming off a game where they scored more points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-12 OU (-8.96 ppg) since Dec 30, 2001 as a road dog coming off a loss as a favorite where less scored points than expected.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 12-0 ATS (+6.29 ppg) at home after a game as a road dog in which they converted at least five third downs.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


TAKE MY BET D.K.

Last week, Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf led the Seahawks in targets, something he has done in three of the last five weeks. In fact, Metcalf has tied fellow receiver Tyler Lockett in targets, or had more, in five of the Seahawks’ last eight games. Metcalf and the passing game may see even more action Monday against the Minnesota Vikings as RB Chris Carson has fumbled four times in his last three games.

At first thought, the Vikings wouldn’t be an optimal matchup for outside receivers as they are a top-10 defense, however, Minny is allowing 79 yards on nearly nine targets to opposing teams’ WR1s. Minnesota has allowed 22 receptions and 400 yards receiving to opposing No.1 outside receivers over the last three weeks with all three WRs topping 110 yards.

We are doubling down on the pacifier playmaker and taking Metcalf’s Over 3.5 receptions and Over 57.5 receiving yards for this Monday night showdown.


SAM THE MAN

The New York Jets’ Sam Darnold might have the easiest schedule for quarterbacks from Week 9 to 14 with the Washington Redskins being the hardest matchup over that stretch. This week, the Jets’ QB will face a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is dead last in yards per pass attempt and last in yards per completion. Every pass completed against the Bengals this year is on average 13.1 yards — that’s nuts.

Only two quarterbacks have more passing yards than Darnold over the last two weeks as the Jets have won three straight and are 3-0 ATS. We are riding with Joe Namath V2.0 and taking Darnold’s Over 239.5 passing yards.


BUSY AS A HIGBEE

It’s been a while since we played a tight end facing the Arizona Cardinals’ defense, which is too bad as TEs have been working the Red Birds all year. Arizona sits in last place in yards allowed to opposing tight ends and is giving up 78 yards on 8 passes to TEs this year.

This week, the L.A. Rams’ Tyler Higbee gets a dream matchup with fellow TE Gerald Everett out. We know the Rams’ offense isn’t impressing anyone this year, scoring just 12 points over their last three games but Higbee has a chance to see plenty of volume as the team’s main TE.

The Cards have given up four-catch games to unknown TE Ross Dwelley and underachiever O.J. Howard over the last two weeks. If they can do it, so can Higbee who hauled in eight catches on 10 targets in Weeks 10 and 12 with Everett in the lineup.

Take the Over 3.5 receptions on Higbee’s receiving total for +108.


MORTGAGE JONES

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played four top-15 rush DVOA defenses in their last five games. This week Ronald Jones will get his chance to light up the Jacksonville Jaguars and their league-worst rush DVOA defense.

The Jags have been getting shredded on the ground, allowing 5.4 yards per carry over the year. It's been even worse lately for the Bucs as Todd Walsh’s defense is letting opposing RBs to run for 6.8 yards per carry over their last three games. In those three games, Derrick Henry, Jonathan WIlliams and Carlos Hyde all rushed for over 110 yards.

Jones saw 50 percent of the offensive snaps last week as the Bucs played with the lead. As 2.5-point road chalk, Tampa Bay has a chance to use their run game effectively throughout the entirety of the game. In the previous three games where Tampa has been the favorite, Jones is averaging 61 yards on the ground for a 4.84 ypc. Jones is also a perfect 5-for-5 in eclipsing 50 yards rushing in games where has at least 12 carries.

We are jumping on the Over on Jones’ rushing total of 48.5 yards and his anytime rushing TD for +164.


GET-RICH KICK SCHEME

The winds are expected to be blowing hard this Sunday with a handful of games looking at double-digit wind speeds thanks to a bomb cyclone. Here is a list of breezy matchups and their O/U kicking prop for your field goal fading familiarity.

Teams’ FG conversion percentage;FGs attempted/game in parenthesis:
• OAK (73%;1.4) @ KC (86%;2.5) — 19.9 mph: Longest field goal 46.5
• TB (87%;2.2) @ JAC (96%;2.3) — 17.7 mph: Longest field goal 47.5
• NYJ (60%;1.4) @ CIN (83%;1.6) — 14.6 mph: Longest field goal 45.5
• WSH (80%;1.8) @ CAR (73%;2.4) — 13.6 mph: Longest field goal 45.5

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 13
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

49ers at Ravens (-5 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST
In a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII won by Baltimore, 34-31 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, these two squads have combined for an impressive 19-3 record through 11 games each. The Ravens (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) dominated the defending NFC champion Rams last Monday night, 45-6 to easily cash as 3 ½-point road favorites. MVP candidate Lamar Jackson threw five touchdown passes to help lead Baltimore to its third consecutive game scoring at least 41 points. Baltimore suffered through an 0-5 ATS run from Week 2 through Week 6, but the Ravens have covered in five straight games, including the last three as a favorite.

The 49ers (10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are also fresh off a blowout last week as San Francisco blasted Green Bay, 37-8 to help improve its chances at the top seed in the NFC playoffs. San Francisco’s defense allowed single-digits for the fourth time this season, while eclipsing the 30-point mark for the sixth time in 2019. The Niners picked up their first cover since a Week 8 blowout of the Panthers, while their ‘over’ streak of four games ended with the ‘under’ of 48 barely cashing.

The last team to own a 10-1 record and be listed as an underdog was the 2007 Packers, who lost to the Cowboys as seven-point ‘dogs in a 37-27 setback. San Francisco has won and covered in all three opportunities as an underdog this season, even though this will be its biggest ‘dog spot. Baltimore is seeking the four-game sweep of the NFC West, while not giving up more than 17 points in any of those victories.

Best Bet: Ravens 30, 49ers 21

Browns (-2, 39) at Steelers – 1:00 PM EST
Tensions were high the last time these AFC North rivals hooked up two weeks ago in Cleveland and ended with an ugly helmet-swinging situation by Cleveland’s Myles Garrett on Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph. Garrett has been suspended for the rest of the season and Rudolph has been replaced by Devlin Hodges as Cleveland seeks the season sweep. The Browns took care of the Steelers, 21-7 the first time around as three-point favorites, capped off by two touchdown passes and a touchdown run by quarterback Baker Mayfield.

The Browns (5-6 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) picked up their third consecutive win after routing the Dolphins, 41-24 to cash as 11-point favorites. Cleveland finished off a three-game sweep of its homestand as the Browns have an opportunity to still make the playoffs after a horrendous start as they still draw the winless Bengals twice, the Cardinals, and the Ravens at home. However, the Browns have lost their last three road games and have dropped 15 consecutive visits to Heinz Field dating back to 2004.

Pittsburgh (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) is still in the Wild Card mix after taking care of Cincinnati on the road last week, 16-10 as 5 ½-point favorites. Hodges replaced an ineffective Rudolph and gave Pittsburgh the lead for good early in the third quarter on a 75-yard touchdown strike to James Washington. The Steelers have allowed 43 points in the past three games, while hitting the ‘under’ in five of the previous six contests. Pittsburgh has won three straight at Heinz Field, while covering in both opportunities as a home ‘dog this season.

Best Bet: Steelers 19, Browns 17

Raiders at Chiefs (-10 ½, 50) – 4:05 PM EST
The calendar has reached December and Oakland is still alive in the AFC West. You wouldn’t think that would be the case after the Raiders (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) were blown out by the Jets, 34-3 as three-point road favorites last Sunday. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Silver and Black, who fell to 0-6 on the highway after a win since Jon Gruden returned to the sidelines last season. Oakland remains one game back of Kansas City in the AFC West, as the Raiders have covered in four of the past five chances in the role of an underdog.

The Chiefs (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) are back following the bye week as Kansas City held off Los Angeles in Mexico City, 24-17 to cash as 5 ½-point favorites in Week 11. Patrick Mahomes didn’t post his usual gawdy passing numbers as he was held to 182 yards through the air, but he led the Chiefs with 59 yards rushing. Amazingly, the Chiefs are seeking consecutive wins for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3, which also coincides with the last time Kansas City covered in back-to-back games.

Kansas City dominated Oakland in the second quarter of its past meeting in Week 2 at the Black Hole as Mahomes threw four touchdown passes in that period in a 28-10 triumph. The Chiefs have won six consecutive home matchups with the Raiders and nine of the past 10 overall with Oakland since 2014. Even though the narrative on head coach Andy Reid is he is nearly unbeatable off the bye week throughout his career, the Chiefs have been listed as a double-digit favorite off the bye the last two seasons and failed to cover each time.

Best Bet: Chiefs 27, Raiders 19

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 43 – Titans at Colts

Indianapolis has done an excellent job this season rebounding from poor offensive performances as the Colts were held to 17 points in a loss at Houston. The Colts have been limited to 20 points or fewer five times this season and in the previous four instances after a low-scoring effort, Indianapolis has scored 27, 30, 24, and 33 points, all resulting in ‘over’ plays. Tennessee has drilled the ‘over’ in all five games since Ryan Tannehill has started at quarterback, while scoring 77 points in the past two wins against Kansas City and Jacksonville.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Jacksonville is coming off three consecutive blowout losses to its three division rivals as the Jaguars return home to battle the Buccaneers. The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released the Jags as a one-point favorite on Monday, but the Bucs have been flipped to a rare road favorite as Tampa Bay is listed at -2 ½. The Buccaneers have failed to cover in the favorite role in three opportunities this season, while Tampa Bay brings in a nine-game ‘over’ streak.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Jets are fresh off three consecutive victories all in the underdog role as New York travels to Cincinnati to face the 0-11 Bengals. Now, New York is laying points on the road, which isn’t good news for a Jets’ team that is 0-2 SU/ATS when listed as a favorite in 2019. The Bengals’ offense has been dreadful all season, but Cincinnati’s defense has stepped up of late by allowing 33 points the last two weeks.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Rams and Cardinals have combined for a spectacular 14-7-1 ATS record on the season as the two NFC West rivals hook up in Arizona. Interestingly enough, Los Angeles and Arizona are each seeking their first division victory of the season as the Rams are 0-2 while the Cardinals are 0-3 within the NFC West. L.A. posted a perfect 6-0 record last season in division play, while outscoring Arizona, 65-9 in the two-game season sweep.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Patriots at Texans
Matt Blunt

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After getting a SNF clash between two playoff bound NFC teams a week ago – a game I was clearly on the wrong side of – this week's SNF contest looks to showcase two teams from the AFC that are looking to make the playoffs as well.

The New England Patriots and Houston Texans have started to form a bit of a rivalry with one another having played five times since December 2015, but the rivalry is all one-sided as New England's gone 5-0 straight up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in those contests. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson just hasn't been able to find success against this Patriots defense, and given that this year's version of that crew in New England is arguably the best of the bunch, Wastson and the Texans will be in tough yet again.

The good news for Houston this time around is the fact that they get to be at home for the first time since that game in December 2015, as it will be Watson's first career home start vs New England. Whether or not that helps the Texans get over the hump in this matchup remains to be seen, but having some extended rest for this game after playing last Thursday doesn't hurt either.

So will extra time to prepare and more friendly surroundings be enough to negate the coaching mismatch that is Bill O'Brien vs Bill Belichick for Houston, or will the Patriots continue to do what they do and get their annual victory over Houston?

Total Talk

This total held steady at 45 for most of the week until there was finally enough enough of a continued flood of 'over' money to push it up to it's current number of 46. It's hard not to agree with the move upwards, as both teams are plenty capable of moving the ball on one another, even with the Patriots defense putting up the stat lines that they have this year – albeit against a very soft schedule.

Both teams are coming off 'unders' last week, and when that is the case for any NFL game, I do like to look the other way the following week with the idea that there will be some regression to the mean. For one, when both teams had the same results the week before, it's easy for the general market perspective to look to that same side again, and total lines are influenced by that as well. After all, Houston's on a run of four consecutive 'unders' while the Patriots have had two in a row, and those results played a part in releasing this total in the mid-40's. Clearly I'm not the only one who believes in this line of thought in terms of some regression to the mean with the 'over' money coming in, and as I said, it's easy to agree with.

A controlled climate setting like the one in Houston brings ideal conditions to the game – something New England won't mind after last week's outing – and that's always a plus for points. And while Deshaun Watson hasn't beaten the Patriots in his career, I do expect to see Houston “borrow” a few of the schemes and play calls that Baltimore used against this Pats defense with Lamar Jackson, as Watson's got a similar skill set. Baltimore hung 37 on New England that day – they hung 41 on this Houston team too – and while the Texans aren't likely to get that high of a point total on the Patriots, getting 24 or so from Houston isn't a big stretch.

The Patriots will be able to get theirs too against a Texans defense that's been picked apart at times this year, as they can never seem to follow one strong performance up with another one. Houston's allowed less then 20 points against three times in their last eight games, and after the previous two they responded with efforts of giving up 32 and 41 points respectively. Belichick and company have a great idea of what to expect to see from Houston having faced them annually for the past few years, and that should lead to success on there end as well. New England has put up at least 27 points in all five of the meetings with Houston since that December 2015 game, and they should be able to do something similar this week.

So it's 'over' or nothing for me on the total in this game, as something like a 27-24 type game is a very realistic expectation in my view.

Side Spiel

The point-spread for this game is very interesting as you can lay -3 with juice on New England or take +3.5 with juice on the Texans. No matter what side you like I would suggest you do pay the juice to get the best of the number, because you just never know how critical that nasty little hook may be.

A New England primetime game lined in this range is always going to see plenty of love for the Patriots, and given their recent history of beating up on Houston in these matchups, going against the Patriots is a hard sell this week. If that's what you are looking to do, I'm sure the extra rest and home field for the Texans are playing a big part in your decision to back the Texans, and it's hard to fault that either. Home field and extra rest are about as good as it gets from a situational standpoint for any NFL team, and Houston's got that all working for them this week.

However, the coaching mismatch that is Bill O'Brien versus Bill Belichick is a decisive one that favors the Pats, and I'm not sure I can go against that scenario this week. Even if the Patriots are essentially spotting Houston a point or two for the benefit of being at home with rest, Belichick and his staff can coach circles around most teams in the league, and they've proved it on a yearly basis against this Houston crew. If I'm expecting the Texans to borrow a few plays from the Ravens, you know Belichick and the Pats are as well, as they probably went to work on counters and answers for Baltimore's attack the day after getting their asses handed to them by the Ravens.

With New England on a 4-1 ATS run following a game where they failed to cover a spread, 6-2 ATS in their last eight away from home, and 5-1 ATS after scoring 14 or fewer points, I do believe we get the best version of this Patriots offense from the start, and even with those situational advantages Houston's got, that's a scary proposition to go against. It's not something I'm looking to step in front of, especially when the Patriots now see Buffalo hot on their tails in terms of the AFC East race.

Final Thoughts

It might be considered square/public as hell to look at the favorite and the 'over' for a SNF game, but to me, those are the sides that end up getting there. I do believe that bypassing the spread and taking the Patriots on the ML (-170ish) is the safest way to go, and that's ultimately where I end up on this contest.

Even with the situational angles favoring the home side here, it's hard to see the Patriots losing a game like this, when they've always found a way to win against Houston throughout Deshaun Watson's career. Obviously something like that continues to happen until it doesn't, but I do believe it will be the Patriots defense that steps up and makes a key stop or two late to seal the deal.

Best Bet: New England Money-Line (-175)

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 13
Tony Mejia

Packers (-6.5/44.5) at Giants, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The total opened at 47 and has been bet down in part due to reports of truly awful weather that should spell trouble for both teams. Snow and rain will likely slow both down, though the Pack has won its coldest game at Lambeau in Week 10 over Carolina and the only time it saw rain, rolling past the Broncos. Green Bay was favored at home and covered in both of those games, but sharp money still came in on New York early when this number opened at 6.5.

Offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga sprained his MCL in last week’s loss to the 49ers in an injury that looked much worse when it occurred, but he’s likely to be a game-time decision. New York has already ruled out Golden Tate due to a concussion and won’t have tight ends Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison in addition to safety Jabrill Peppers. Saquon Barkley has really struggled in gaining just 29 yards on his last 27 carries and went out of his way to say his health isn’t a factor in his lack of production, so we’ll see if playing in horrible weather will help him get back on track. He’s got a history of excelling in nasty weather.

Redskins at Panthers (-9.5/39.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Coming off their first victory since mid-October, Washington makes the short trip to Charlotte looking to win consecutive games for the first time since winning three straight in October in 2018. That run started against the Panthers with a 23-17 win that was Washington’s first over Carolina since 2006. Christian McCaffrey was held to just 20 rushing yards on eight carries, so he’ll be looking for a little redemption in the rain as the Panthers look to snap a three-game losing streak. His team has allowed 20 or more points in all but one game this season, but does catch a break since the ‘Skins have been anemic on offense all season and arrives with the lowest scoring output in the entire NFL.

Rookie Dwyane Haskins got his first win as a starter against the Lions last week and led the team to 19 points, the most they’ve managed since Week 2. RB Derrius Guice has provided a spark and rookie Terry McLaurin leads all first-year receivers in yardage, so both played a role in setting up last week’s game-winning field goal and will look to help pull off an upset here. Linebacker Ryan Kerrigan, a mainstay who has made 139 consecutive starts, will miss his first game as a pro due to a concussion. Backup safety Deshazor Everett is going to play, but the ‘Skins look a little thin in the middle and DT Da’Ron Payne is questionable to play. Carolina has serious offensive line issues they’re dealing with as left tackle Greg Little (ankle) is doubtful and Taylor Moton (knee) is questionable to play.

49ers at Ravens (-5.5/45), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Rain will be part of the equation throughout the game since all of Baltimore will wake up to a steady downpour that isn’t supposed to relent until the early evening. Lamar Jackson’s worst game at quarterback this season came in a rainy 26-23 OT win in Pittsburgh in which he was picked off three times and he was just 9-for-20 in Seattle despite running for 116 yards and a score. The Ravens won that game thanks to a pair of defensive scores, so you can’t imagine that the offense is very excited about the weather considering the offense has piled up 172 yards in clear conditions over the past four games with Jackson throwing 13 TDs without being intercepted. Center Matt Skura was lost for the season last week, so undrafted rookie Patrick Mekari will step in. It will help Baltimore’s continuity up front if guard Bradley Bozeman can play through an ankle injury. RB Mark Ingram is a go after an ankle tweak.

San Francisco’s defensive front has been one of the league’s best all season but will have to chase Jackson around without Dee Ford, who joins WR Dante Pettis in being sidelined for this clash. The 49ers have adequately replaced LB Kwon Alexander but his absence will likely be felt against Jackson and Mark Ingram. Slippery receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was targeted seven times last week, catching five passes for his first two-touchdown effort since Week 1, so he’s as healthy as he’s been all season and could emerge as the x-factor here. San Francisco WRs Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder), TE George Kittle (ankle) and RB Matt Breida (ankle) are all set to play through their nagging ailments. The total has dipped a point from the opening number despite more public money in on the under.

Titans at Colts (-1/43), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Ryan Tannehill is making himself some serious money come offseason. He became the first Tennessee QB since the late Steve McNair to throw for two scores and run for two more in last week’s impressive win over Jacksonville that also showcased how much easier it is for RB Derrick Henry to get loose when teams have to worry about the passing game too. A victory over the Colts would keep them in the thick of the AFC South race and offers a leg up on the sixth and final playoff spot. Indianapolis is in exactly the same boat and at home for this one, but they open December with decidedly less momentum on the heels of a tight loss to the Texans, their third setback in four tries. With road games in Tampa, New Orleans and Jacksonville left to close out the months, it’s important that Indy holds serve at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Money came in on Tennessee early despite news about Henry struggling with his hamstring as he was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, but he’s set to participate. DE Cameron Wake went on IR, but corner Adoree Jackson is set to play. Quenton Nelson, the league’s top left guard, was also limited in practice and is going to participate, but the Colts are extremely banged up with WR T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Parris Campbell unlikely to go. Tight end Eric Ebron went on IR, so it’s important that Mo Alie-Cox return to lend Jack Doyle a hand. RB Marlon Mack is again out, so Jonathan Williams will again be the featured back. Indy got great news with rookie corner Rock Ya-Sin and safety Khari Willis available. Indianapolis has dominated recent meetings between these teams, winning 19 of 22, including three straight. The Titans won 19-17 in Week 2 behind three Jacoby Brissett touchdown passes.

Eagles (-4/46.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Since the Bills did Philly a huge favor with their Thanksgiving day upset, the opportunity to even the NFC East is there once again for the banged-up Eagles. After managing a combined 19 points against the Patriots and Seahawks in frustrating home losses, the offense is hoping that getting Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor back will help QB Carson Wentz snap out of his slump. RB Jordan Howard isn’t expected to return and TE Zach Ertz is looking to fight through a hamstring injury, so rookie Miles Sanders and reserve tight end Dallas Goedert will need to step up as x-factors. Tackle Lane Johnson is returning to the mix and should supply a boost.

The Dolphins’ two-game surge may ultimately derail the Colts, but the Bills and Browns have each beaten them by 17 points over the past few weeks. They’ll face the Jets, Giants and Bengals next, so Miami has a chance to put together another winning streak with their depleted heart-and-hustle group. WR Albert Wilson will play, but Preston Williams and Jakeem Grant all went on IR. With Kelan Ballage getting the bulk of the carries, Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t have much help. DeVante Parker will need a big game against the Eagles secondary since the Dolphins will likely need to score points to pull the upset. Foles should get back on track against a secondary missing safety Reshad Jones, CB Xavien Howard and Cordrea Tankersley. Replacements Ken Crawley, Ken Webster and Steven Parker are all questionable. Temperatures will be in the high 70s.

Browns (-2/39) at Steelers, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Cleveland looks to continue its comeback from the dead as it tries to get back to .500 for the first time in months by pulling off a sweep of Pittsburgh here. A Steelers’ win will keep them in the thick of the AFC wild card race, but they’re moving in on to Plan C at quarterback with undrafted rookie Ducky Hodges in the lineup ahead of Mason Rudolph following his benching last week. This will be the first time the teams are seeing each other since that wild brawl featuring Myles Garrett and Rudolph broke out at the end of a 21-7 Browns’ win on Nov. 14, so the teams can’t even pretend that enough time has passed for everyone to have gotten over it. Head coach Freddie Kitchens was seen wearing a “Pittsburgh Started It” t-shirt on Friday, so count on this being physical and potentially downright ugly. Thunderstorms are expected to be a part of the equation around halftime and rain should be present throughout.

Hodges again won’t have Juju Smith-Schuster due to a concussion and can’t lean on RB James Conner to hand off to or Maurkice Pouncey to snap and anchor the line since the All-Pro center is serving the final game of his suspension for his actions in the Garrett incident. Tackle Alejandro Villanueva is dealing with a shoulder issue but should play, as should corner Artie Burns. A shaky front could struggle against the Browns despite Garrett’s absence since Olivier Vernon is expected back in the fold. The Steelers’ defense has been the driving force for the team since acquiring safety Minkah Fitzgerald and hope to help out the offense by creating turnovers against Baker Mayfield. The Browns have their own issues on offense with tackle Greg Robinson sidelined and TE Daniel Njoku still out. Cleveland is looking to sweep Pittsburgh for the first time since 1988.

Rams (-3/47.5) at Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: Watching how the Rams respond from getting their doors blown off on Monday night in a 45-6 home loss to the Ravens will be telling since Sean McVay has led a charmed life thus far. Last year’s NFC champions will host Seattle next week before visiting Dallas and San Francisco and closing with a home game against the Cardinals. Running the table definitely gives them a chance to make the playoffs considering the competition and the fact the Vikings can get caught, but there’s no room for error left. If L.A. gets up off the mat, it can at least make things interesting for the month. Considering how awful things looked in the second half, there’s also a chance that the team drops a collective Sonny Liston and fails to come out of their corner this month. McVay’s message immediately after Monday’s bloodbath was to not let the loss linger. They got on the plane and will take the field in Glendale, so there’s that.

The Cardinals are in an underdog role again and have only been a favorite once this season, so even with L.A. coming off such a huge collapse, they’re a home dog that has dropped four straight outright but has still been among the better ATS teams, coming in 7-3-1 in that department. Kyler Murray aggravated a hamstring injury but is expected to try and play through it. With Chase Edmonds also set to go, the Cards have their top three backs available with David Johnson and Keyon Drake available alongside a speedy receiving corps. The Rams will have something to prove after getting carved up by Jackson and get another crack at a speedy dual-threat quarterback if Murray looks like his usual self. Brett Hundley is his backup.

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

Circa Picks - Week 13
November 30, 2019
By VI News

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

1) Green Bay -6.5 (521)

2) San Francisco +6 (489)

3) Tampa Bay PK (465)

4) Tennessee +2.5 (391)

5) Arizona +3 (384)


CIRCA - WEEK 13 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Chicago (-4.5) 240 Detroit (+4.5) 78
Buffalo (+6.5) 212 Dallas (-6.5) 180
New Orleans (-7) 205 Atlanta (+7) 84
Green Bay (-6.5) 521 N.Y. Giants (+6.5) 160
Washington (+10) 116 Carolina (-10) 309
San Francisco (+6) 489 Baltimore (-6) 254
Tennessee (+2.5) 391 Indianapolis (-2.5) 358
Philadelphia (-10) 210 Miami (+10) 196
Oakland (+10) 244 Kansas City (-10) 266
Tampa Bay (PK) 465 Jacksonville (PK) 182
N.Y. Jets (-3.5) 366 Cincinnati (+3.5) 379
L.A. Rams (-3) 251 Arizona (+3) 384
L.A. Chargers (-3) 313 Denver (+3) 154
Cleveland (-2.5) 353 Pittsburgh (+2.5) 331
New England (-3.5) 343 Houston (+3.5) 330
Minnesota (+3) 373 Seattle (-3) 308

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%
5 2-3 13-12 52%
6 2-3 15-15 50%
7 2-2-1 17-17-1 50%
8 3-2 20-19-1 51%
9 0-5 20-24-1 45%
10 1-3-1 21-27-2 43%
11 4-1 25-28-2 47%
12 3-2 28-30-2 48%
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG +6.5

CLE at PIT 01:00 PM
CLE -1.5
O 40.0

TB at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC +3.0

PHI at MIA 01:00 PM
PHI -10.0

NYJ at CIN 01:00 PM
CIN +3.0

SF at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -5.5

WAS at CAR 01:00 PM
WAS +10.0

TEN at IND 01:00 PM
IND +1.0
U 42.0

LAR at ARI 04:05 PM
LAR -2.5
U 47.0

OAK at KC 04:25 PM
KC -11.0
U 49.0

LAC at DEN 04:25 PM
DEN +3.5
U 37.5

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BET:

NE at HOU 08:20 PM

HOU +3.5

U 47.0

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 13
December 1, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Dec. 2

Minnesota at Seattle, 8:15 p.m. Possible playoff implications mark this matchup. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings (8-3) look to keep pace with the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks (9-2) have a chance to tie San Francisco for the NFC West - potentially setting up a big showdown in Week 17 in Seattle.

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STARS

Passing

- Jared Goff, Rams, passed for 424 yards and two touchdowns, leading Los Angeles to a 34-7 win over Arizona.

- Aaron Rodgers, Packers, threw four touchdown passes in the snow and Green Bay rebounded from an embarrassing 29-point loss to San Francisco and beat the New York Giants 31-13.

- Deshaun Watson, Texans, threw three touchdown passes and had the first TD reception of his career, leading Houston to a 28-22 victory over New England.

- Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins, was 27 for 39 for 365 yards and three touchdowns as Miami achieved season highs in points and yards (408) in a 37-31 victory over Philadelphia.

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, threw for a touchdown and ran for a score, helping Kansas City cruise past Oakland 40-9.

- Drew Lock, Broncos, had two touchdown passes in his NFL debut, a 23-20 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

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Rushing

- Raheem Mostert, 49ers, ran for a career-high 146 yards and a touchdown in San Francisco's 20-17 loss at Baltimore.

- Derrick Henry, Titans, had 26 carries for 149 yards and scored on a 13-yard TD run on fourth down to cut the deficit to 17-14 in the third quarter, and Tennessee went on to beat Indianapolis 31-17.

- Derrius Guice, Redskins, racked up 129 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, helping Washington to a 29-21 victory over Carolina.

- Lamar Jackson, Ravens, weathered miserable conditions to run for 101 yards in Baltimore's 20-17 victory over San Francisco. The combination of driving rain, a stiff wind and San Francisco's rugged defense held Jackson to complete only 14 of 23 passes for 105 yards, and he lost a fumble.

- Todd Gurley, Rams, ran for 95 yards and a touchdown in Los Angeles' 34-7 win at Arizona.

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Receiving

- DeVante Parker, Dolphins, had seven receptions for a career-high 159 yards and two scores, both on leaping grabs, in Miami's 37-31 victory over Philadelphia.

- Robert Woods, Rams, had 13 catches for 172 yards in Los Angeles' 34-7 win over Arizona.

- Davante Adams, Packers, caught two touchdown passes in Green Bay's 31-13 victory over the New York Giants.

- James White, Patriots, had eight catches for 98 yards and two TDs, and also gained 79 yards on 14 carries in New England's 28-22 loss at Houston.

- James Washington, Steelers, finished with 111 yards receiving and a touchdown on four catches to help Pittsburgh top Cleveland 20-13.

- Courtland Sutton, Broncos, had two TD receptions in Denver's 23-20 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

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Special Teams

- Jason Sanders and Matt Haack, Dolphins. Sanders caught a 1-yard touchdown pass on a fluttery throw by Haack when Miami opted to not go for a field goal on fourth down and instead scored on the trick play in a 37-31 victory over Philadelphia. Sanders became the first kicker with a TD catch since Denver's Jim Turner in 1977.

- Justin Tucker, Ravens, kicked a 49-yard field goal as time expired to give Baltimore a 20-17 victory over San Francisco.

- Brandon McManus, Broncos, booted a 53-yard field goal as time expired, set up by a long interference call, to give the Broncos a 23-20 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

- Dane Cruikshank and Tye Smith, Titans. Cruikshank raced through an inside gap to block a potential tiebreaking field goal late in the fourth quarter and Smith returned it 63 yards for the go-ahead touchdown to send the Titans past Indianapolis 31-17.

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Defense

- Devin White, Buccaneers, scooped up a fumble and returned it 14 yards for a touchdown, and also had an interception in Tampa Bay's 28-11 victory at Jacksonville.

- Juan Thornhill, Chiefs, returned an interception 46 yards for a score, helping Kansas City beat Oakland 40-9.

- Carlos Dunlap, Bengals, had three sacks in Cincinnati's 22-6 win over the New York Jets.

- Taylor Rapp, Rams, returned an interception 31 yards for a touchdown in Los Angeles' 34-7 victory at Arizona.

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MILESTONES

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes threw his 70th career touchdown pass in the Chiefs' 40-9 win over Oakland. It came in his 27th career game, surpassing Dan Marino (29 games) as the fastest player to reach 70 in NFL history. ... Cincinnati's Andy Dalton set a couple of franchise passing marks in a 22-6 win over the New York Jets in front of 39,804 fans, the smallest home crowd since the final game of the 1995 season at Cinergy Field. He became the Bengals' career leader in touchdown passes, moving ahead of Ken Anderson with 198. He also passed Anderson for the franchise's career completion mark. ... Giants running back Saquon Barkley had 115 yards from scrimmage on 83 rushing and 32 receiving, marking his 17th career game with at least 100 yards from scrimmage yards. That ties him with Billy Sims for the fourth-most such games by a player in his first 25 career games. Only Edgerrin James (21 games), Eric Dickerson (19) and Ezekiel Elliott (18). ... Tennessee's Derrick Henry rushed for 149 yards and a touchdown in the Titans' 31-17 win at Indianapolis, making him the fifth player in NFL history to get at least 145 rushing yards and a TD run in three consecutive games. He joined Jim Brown (1958), O.J. Simpson (1976), Eric Dickerson (1984) and Adrian Peterson (2012).

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STREAKS & STATS

The Bengals (1-11) ended the longest losing streak in their history and finally shed their distinction as the NFL's lone winless team, beating the New York Jets 22-6. Cincinnati hadn't won since topping Oakland 30-16 on Dec. 16, 2018. ... The New York Giants' 31-13 loss to Green Bay was their eighth straight defeat, their worst skid since 2004. ... The Jets had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 22-6 loss at Cincinnati and became the first team to lose to two teams that were 0-7 or worse in the same season. Miami was 0-7 when it beat New York on Nov. 3. After scoring 34 points in three straight games, the Jets were held to six or fewer for the fourth time this season.

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O'BRIEN'S BREAKTHROUGH

Houston's 28-22 victory over New England marked Texans coach and former Patriots assistant Bill O'Brien's first win in six tries against Bill Belichick. It was also just the Texans' second win over the Patriots, and first since Jan. 3, 2010.

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FOLES FOLDS

Nick Foles ended his first three drives with turnovers that Tampa Bay turned into touchdowns, costly mistakes that propelled the Buccaneers to a 28-11 victory over the Jaguars on Sunday. Doug Marrone benched Foles at halftime, switching back to rookie sensation Gardner Minshew. Minshew rallied the Jags and had a chance to make it a seven-point game in the fourth quarter. But his hot pass slipped through Dede Westbrook's hands and into Sean Murphy-Bunting's arms for Jacksonville's fourth turnover of the day. A sixth-round draft pick from Washington State, Minshew started eight games while Foles recovered from a broken left collarbone and gave the Jaguars (4-8) a chance nearly every week. Foles, the 2018 Super Bowl MVP who signed a four-year, $88 million contract in free agency, never looked comfortable in his three games since coming off injured reserve. He was 7 of 14 for 93 yards, with two fumbles and an interception. He also was sacked three times.

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GAMBLES PAY OFF

Philadelphia was expecting a field goal try by Miami when holder Matt Haack stood and instead took a shotgun snap, with five teammates flanked far to the left and four far to the right. Haack rolled left before flipping a pass to kicker Jason Sanders, who was part of the group on the left before slipping into the end zone uncovered for a 1-yard touchdown in the Dolphins' 37-31 victory. ''It's exactly what we planned for,'' Haack said. ''That was pretty cool.'' Sanders became the first kicker with a TD catch since Denver's Jim Turner in 1977.

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QUACK, QUACK

Undrafted rookie free agent Devlin ''Duck'' Hodges threw for 212 yards with a touchdown and an interception to lead Pittsburgh past Cleveland 20-13. Hodges, a champion duck caller in his down time, improved to 2-0 as a starter after being bumped to the top of the depth chart last week in place of struggling Mason Rudolph. Hodges completed 14 of 21 passes while joining Washington's Ed Rubbert - a replacement player in 1987 - as the only undrafted rookie quarterbacks to win each of their first two career starts since 1970.

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ACTION JACKSON

Baltimore's Lamar Jackson weathered miserable conditions to run for 101 yards in the Ravens' 20-17 victory over San Francisco. The combination of driving rain, a stiff wind and San Francisco's rugged defense held Jackson to complete only 14 of 23 passes for 105 yards, and he lost a fumble. But the Ravens improved to 16-3 with Jackson as a starter and 12-0 when he rushes for at least 70 yards. In addition, Jackson became the first quarterback in NFL history to have four 100-yard rushing games in a season, surpassing the mark held by Michael Vick (three games each in 2004 and '06) and Russell Wilson (three in 2014).

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BIG MAC

Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey had seven catches in the Panthers' 29-21 loss to Washington, giving him 75 receptions through 12 games this season. He has at least 75 catches in each of his first three NFL seasons and is the fifth running back in league history with at least three seasons of at least 75 receptions, joining Marshall Faulk (five), Larry Centers (five), Roger Craig (three) and Le'Veon Bell (three). McCaffrey's 2,162 career yards receiving surpassed Roger Craig (2,118) for the most by a running back in his first three seasons since 1966.

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SIDELINED

Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield suffered a bruised right hand in the Browns' 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh. Mayfield smacked it against the facemask of Pittsburgh linebacker Bud Dupree just before halftime and played the second half with his throwing hand in a protective glove. ... Carolina tight end Greg Olsen entered the concussion protocol after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit from Washington linebacker Ryan Anderson, who was ejected after delivering the hit in the Redskins' 29-21 win. Redskins returner Trey Quinn left in the second quarter with a concussion after taking a shot to the head from DeAndrew White while going low to field a punt. ... Jets safety Jamal Adams was wearing a walking boot on his left foot after the game at Cincinnati. He said he was injured on the first series but played through it. He wasn't sure how long he might be sidelined. ... Miami running back Kalen Ballage left in the second quarter against Philadelphia with a left leg injury and didn't return.

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SPEAKING

''One thing I didn't appreciate is all the booing today. You've got guys putting their hearts out there every play, every game, and nobody deserves that. I hated how that was.'' - Jacksonville quarterback Gardner Minshew after the Jaguars' 28-11 loss at home to Tampa Bay.

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''He had a chip on his shoulder all week.'' - Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon on quarterback Andy Dalton, who returned from a three-week benching to lead the Bengals to their first victory of the season with a 22-6 win over the New York Jets.