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[Udog]

NFC Wild Card Notes

Minnesota at New Orleans

Sunday Jan. 5 (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)

Vikings Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Saints Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS

Opening Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out New Orleans as an eight-point home favorite with a total of 46. The opening number has held steady overnight but the total has been pushed up to 47.

Head-to-Head

These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The Vikings own a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS mark in those games but the numbers could be in bettor favor for the Saints if it wasn’t for the “Minneapolis Miracle” in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs. Minnesota would eventually get humbled a week later at Philadelphia while New Orleans was sent packing.

Playoff Notes

Despite the win over the Saints in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs, the Vikings haven’t had much success in the playoffs especially on the road. Minnesota is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 playoff games and that includes a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS mark on the road.

Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins has only appeared in two playoff games and he’s produced a 0-2 record both SU and ATS. He only started once for Washington and it was blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round.

The playoff pedigree for New Orleans was once considered a no-brainer bet but recent trends have made bettors hesitant. Since QB Drew Brees started in “The Big Easy” in 2007, the Saints have gone 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS. Recently, the club is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS over the past two seasons and all three non-covers came at the Superdome. They could’ve easily covered a few of those game but the days of watching New Orleans ‘boat-race’ opponents at home hasn’t happened since 2012 when they routed the Lions 45-28 as 10 ½-point home favorite.

These teams met in the 2010 NFC Championship and New Orleans nipped Minnesota 31-28 in overtime. Brees and the Saints outlasted QB Brett Favre, who made a key interception late in the fourth quarter for the Vikings that cost them a chance to win the game in regulation. Two weeks later, New Orleans defeated Indianapolis 31-17 in the Super Bowl.

Total Notes

The ‘over’ went 9-7 for both the Vikings and Saints in the regular season. Normally a good ‘over’ bet at home, New Orleans saw a stalemate (4-4) at the Superdome despite the offense scoring 30-plus in six home games.

Minnesota watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its final eight games of the season and the ‘over’ was 5-3 on the road, which includes a run of five straight to the high side in their last five away games. During this span, the Vikings offense averaged 32.4 points per game.

New Orleans saw the ‘under’ cash in both home playoff affairs last season but that was preceded with a 5-0 ‘over’ run. Minnesota is on a 2-0 ‘over’ run in the playoffs, both results coming during its 2018 campaign. Prior to those games, the Vikings saw seven of their previous eight playoff games go ‘under’ the total.


Seattle at Philadelphia

Sunday, Jan. 5 (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Seahawks Road Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
Eagles Home Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS

Opening Odds
The SuperBook opened the Eagles -1 but the number quickly flipped to the Seahawks -1. The total was sent out at 45 ½ and that number has held steady.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 12 and Seattle captured a 17-9 win over Philadelphia a two-point road favorite. Including that win, the Seahawks have won and covered five straight games against the Eagles dating back to 2011. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 all-time versus the Eagles and all four wins came by double digits and two of them occurred in the “City of Brotherly Love.” The ‘under’ has connected in all four of those games.

Playoff Notes

Seattle has gone 8-5 all-time in the postseason with Wilson at QB and that includes a 1-5 mark on the road. The ‘Hawks have dropped three straight playoff games on the road and the defense has surrendered 24, 36 and 31 points in those losses. The lone away win came in the 2016 Divisional Playoffs as Seattle nipped Minnesota 10-9 and the Vikings missed a late field goal in that decision.

Philadelphia has covered in each of its last five playoff appearances and it’s gone 4-1 SU in those games. The loss came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round at New Orleans, a 20-14 setback as an 8 ½-point road underdog. Fast Fact – The Eagles have closed as underdogs in each of those playoff matchups. The last time Philadelphia was favored in the playoffs came in 2014 when it lost 26-24 to New Orleans as a three-point home favorite in the Wild Card round.

Total Notes

As mentioned above, the ‘under’ has cashed in four straight encounters between the pair as Philadelphia was held to 12 PPG in those games.

Seattle watched the ‘over’ go 8-7-1 this season and that includes a 4-4 mark on the road. Scoring on the East Coast hasn’t been an issue for the club and we saw that this season as they averaged 26.8 PPG. Philadelphia produced an 8-8 total mark for bettors but the ‘under’ was 6-2 at Lincoln Financial Field. After allowing the Redskins and Lions to each put up 27 in Week 1 and 3 at home, the Eagles only allowed 13.3 PPG in their final six at home.

The Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games. They’ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. The Eagles saw the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their two postseason affairs last season, and the offense scored 16 and 14 against the Bears and Saints respectively. Philadelphia watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 during its Super Bowl winning season in 2018. All five of those results came with QB Nick Foles, who was backing up Carson Wentz. This will be the first playoff appearance for Wentz.

[Udog]

NFL Wild Card betting opening odds and early action: Saints strong favorites vs Vikings
Patrick Everson

The NFL regular season gives way to the new year and the playoffs, starting with Wild Card weekend. We check in on the opening odds and early action for the four matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-8)

New Orleans gets a chance to avenge the Miracle in Minneapolis from the 2017-18 playoffs and is surely still hot about the noncall of pass interference that ended its 2018-19 playoff run. The Saints (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) closed with a 42-10 rout of Carolina as 13.5-point road favorites, finishing the regular season with the NFL’s best spread-covering mark.

Minnesota broke New Orleans’ heart on a crazy touchdown play in the divisional round two years ago. This year, the Vikings (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) are skidding into the postseason, losing their last two and three of their last five. In Week 17, locked into the sixth seed and resting many of their starters, the Vikes fell to Chicago 21-19 as 5-point home underdogs.

“It’s hard to trust Kirk Cousins in a big game, and we consider the Saints the best team in the NFC,” Murray said in assessing this contest, set for 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday. “The Saints will be in every moneyline parlay this weekend.”

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)

Seattle came mere inches short of nabbing the NFC’s No. 2 seed, a first-round bye and a home game in the divisional round. Instead, the Seahawks (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) fell to the fifth seed after losing to San Francisco 26-21 Sunday night as 3.5-point home underdogs. On fourth-and-goal in the waning seconds, Seattle came up a hair short of the end zone.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia won the NFC East and is the No. 4 seed despite having the worst record of all the NFC postseason qualifiers. In Week 17, the Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) assured their playoff spot with a 34-17 road victory over the New York Giants as 4-point favorites.

“We opened Philly -1, but flipped to Seahawks -1 already,” Murray said late Sunday night, shortly after The SuperBook posted the playoff lines. “This number may go higher due to the time slot (4:40 p.m. ET Sunday). The public will be on the Seahawks and a ton of parlays will close with Seahawks.”

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England needed only to beat lowly Miami on Sunday to nail down the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the AFC. But the Patriots (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) failed to do so, stunningly losing 27-24 on a last-minute touchdown as hefty 17.5-point home favorites, falling to the third seed.

Tennessee was in a win-and-you’re-in situation in Week 17, and fortunately, Houston – with the AFC South wrapped up – opted to rest its key players. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) ultimately got bet up to 10-point road favorites and rolled 35-14 to take the sixth seed.

“There will be good two-way action on this game,” Murray said of the Saturday night Wild Card contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET. “Obviously, the public will support the Patriots as always, but I also think we will see money come in on the Titans, given how much New England has struggled on offense recently.”

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)

Houston won the AFC South and could’ve possibly moved from No. 4 to No. 3, but opted to rest DeShaun Watson and several others, playing it safe in Week 17. As such, the Texans (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) went off as 10-point home underdogs against Tennessee and got rolled 35-14.

No. 5 seed Buffalo was one of the bigger surprises of the season, going 10-6 SU (9-5-2 ATS), although Sean McDermott’s squad dropped its last two regular-season games. In Week 17 against the New York Jets, the Bills didn’t keep QB Josh Allen in long and mustered just two field goals in a 13-6 home loss catching 1.5 points.

“This will likely be the lowest-handle game of the weekend and probably not a big decision,” Murray said of the first Wild Card kickoff, at 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday. “There should be support for both teams. It’s hard to trust Josh Allen here, but it’s also hard to trust Bill O’Brien laying points. Flip a coin.”

[Udog]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Wild Card Weekend odds: Media could help move Minnesota spread
Jason Logan

With the spread at Saints -8, books will move fast through the dead numbers if money continues to show up on the home side. If you like the Vikes, you could see +9 before kickoff on Sunday.

With only four games on the board and the focus of the entire football world on the NFL Wild Card Weekend, the odds for the opening round of the playoffs have as much wiggle room as an “economy” seat on a discount airline.

That makes getting the best of the spread and total vital for your postseason betting opinions. Covers Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan sizes up the Wild Card lines and gives his best bets to make now and which ones you want to make later.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: BUFFALO BILLS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-3)

The Texans opened as field-goal favorites for this first-round matchup, enjoying a bit of bye week by resting starters in the season finale. Houston had the luxury of knowing it had nothing to play for once Kansas City won in the early kickoffs and rolled over for Tennessee in Week 17, with starters on the sideline.

The Bills also had little on the line when it lost to the Jets in Week 17, but still played some key players in the first half before yanking them and giving way to a loss. Buffalo hits the road for the Wild Card Weekend with three losses in its last four games but has been profitable as a road pup with a 4-0-2 ATS mark when getting the points as a visitor.

If you like Houston in this matchup, you will want to strike now at take the -3 before a nasty half-point hook shows up. Some books are already dealing Texans -3.5 but most have just tacked an extra five cents on to the vig, which would indicate a move to 3.5 is likely coming.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+8) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Books opened New Orleans as a 7.5-point home favorite for this Wild Card war with Minnesota and early money pounced on the Saints, pushing the spread to the dead number of -8 as of Monday morning.

New Orleans has looked flat-out dominant in recent weeks, outscoring its last three opponents by a combined score of 114-45. The Saints covered in all three of those matchups and could also have a bit of revenge in mind for Minnesota, given how the last postseason meeting between these two franchises finished. The media will play up the playoff rematch and the Over/Under on replays of the “Minneapolis Miracle” is at 100,000.

The Vikings also backed into the tournament on two straight losses (granted Week 17 was a giveaway) and left a bad taste in the mouths of bettors with a stinker against Green Bay in a must-win Week 16 contest. With the spread at Saints -8, books will move fast through the dead numbers if money continues to show up on the home side. If you like the Vikes, you could see +9 before kickoff on Sunday.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 43.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The total for this AFC Wild Card game opened as low as 41.5 and shot up as high as 44 points with early play on the Over. It would seem that initial action has faith in the Patriots offense finally showing up after laying dormant most of the season.

In a rare twist, it’s Ryan Tannehill and the Titans who swing the big stick on that side of the ball. Tennessee’s scoring has been transformative since going with the former Dolphins QB, who faces a familiar foe in the opening round of the postseason. However, the Titans’ best plan of attack should be RB Derrick Henry and plenty of him. That way they can control the clock and lower their risk of turning the ball over – something New England is very dependant upon.

Those books that did tick the total as high as 44 got instant buyback on the Under, so the 43.5 may be a good as it gets for those fans of the Under. While recent trends show the Titans and Pats riding respective runs for the Over, the backbone for both teams is defense. The weather looks to be cold and damp in Foxborough, with temperatures hovering around freezing Saturday night.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 46 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Seahawks and Eagles meet in the “Band-Aid Bowl” with both squads limping into the postseason. The theme song for this battle of the birds should be Mr. Mister’s airy 80’s hit “Broken Wings”, given the length of the injury reports.

Books opened this total at 46 points and while most are standing pat at that number (select books serving 45.5), some sharper markets are starting to discount the juice on the Over with money coming in on a lower-scoring finish. Seattle’s recent offensive efforts are playing into that lean, scoring only 21 points versus San Francisco in Week 17 and putting up just 13 points in a stunning loss to Arizona in Week 16.

These foes met in Philadelphia back in Week 12, with a 17-9 Seattle win staying well below the total of 45.5 points. If you fancy yourself a contrarian and like the Over, give this total some time to breathe. It should come down before those injury updates on Thursday and Friday.

[Udog]

141BUFFALO -142 HOUSTON
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games in the current season.

143TENNESSEE -144 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

145MINNESOTA -146 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

147SEATTLE -148 PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.




NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 4

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BUFFALO (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (10 - 6) - 1/4/2020, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/4/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 123-158 ATS (-50.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-152 ATS (+39.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-152 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-73 ATS (+25.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-89 ATS (+32.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-59 ATS (+26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 5

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MINNESOTA (10 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3) - 1/5/2020, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 7) - 1/5/2020, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[StarDust Bum]

Sportsbook Betting Recap - Week 17

All the Patriots had to do was win at home against the Dolphins and they’d get a bye and only have to win two games in the playoffs to make the Super Bowl, again. They were 17-point favorites. No NFL team has lost with that high of a spread in 25 years but it happened in Sunday’s Week 17 action with the Dolphins 27-24 win at Foxboro which forces the Patriots into the Wild Card round next week. The result was positive for most Nevada sportsbooks, but a couple of shops took their lumps with it on the money-line.

“It was a good day driven by the Dolphins winning,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. “We had a bettor play two $100,000 money-line parlays that already had LSU, the Saints, Chiefs, and Packers win and he needed the Patriots to win as the fifth leg to cash. It looked as though the Chiefs and Packers both had a chance to lose, but it was the Patriots, the unlikeliest that helped us the most.”

The last time a favorite as big as the Patriots lost outright was in 1995 when the Redskins (+17.5) beat the Cowboys, 24-17. Last season in Week 3 the Bills (+16.5) surprised the Vikings, 27-6. Tom Brady was 15-0 at home against the Dolphins in meaningful games, but there were signs something this was coming.

“You could see it a mile away,” said William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “Miami has been very competitive the last six weeks while the Pats have been very average at best. It’s been smoke and mirrors for them for the last seven weeks.”

After starting 8-0, the Patriots have gone just 4-4 straight up and 2-5-1 against the spread in the second-half of the season Brady threw a pick-six, another sign that things are off for the defending champs.

The Dolphins closed the season with two straight wins to finish 5-11 after losing their first seven games forcing several books to post props if they would go winless. They covered inflated spreads in nine of their last 12 games becoming the most consistent cover team over that stretch. In Week 2, they lost at home to the Patriots, 43-0, as 18-point 'dogs.

Bogdanovich said several Nevada bettors were feeling the Dolphins upset and said smaller wagers accumulating $6,800 across the state had the Dolphins money-line from +850 to 10-to-1 odds. Nice score!

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also saw a few heavy bets on the Dolphins.

“We took a $15,000 money-line bet on the Dolphins Thursday at 8-to-1 (odds),“ said Superbook VP Jay Kornegay. “And then again this morning with $10,000 at 7-to-1.”

While most books did well to the Dolphins, it was one of only three losers on the day at the SuperBook which makes them one of the most fortunate books of Week 17.

“It was a very solid day,” Kornegay said. “Some of the results won’t make sense but we won on the sides the market moved mostly with players resting,” Kornegay said. “We had big bets this morning on the Bears -3 and we had support for the Texans, a game we stayed ahead of the market with.”

In other words, Kornegay is basically saying his team baited bettors with numbers not available anywhere else. They closed the Bears -5 at Minnesota and closed the Titans -10 at Houston.

The Vikings rested all their key starters at home against Bears and played tough, but would lose 21-19 while covering the spread. The Texans rested their key starters as well, but the Titans didn’t. All the Titans had to do was win and they would clinch the No. 6 seed in the AFC and they’d pile it on in a 35-14 win, covering a spread that went from Titans -3.5 to -10. The Titans will now face the Patriots this weekend.

A funny note about the total (44) in the Titans game was that it looked like there was no way it would get over when it 28-14 late in the fourth quarter, but there were more stats to be acquired in the 2019 regular season and running back Derrick Henry only needed a few more yards to win the rushing title. So they kept feeding him the ball and then he broke loose for a 53-yard run for his third score of the day, while also sending the over the total in a 35-14 win.

“We were a small winner in the afternoon with the biggest being one of our big bettors laying six-figures taking +3.5 with the Giants,” Stoneback said.

All the Eagles (-3.5) had to do was win at the Giants to clinch the NFC East title regardless of what the Cowboys (-12) did at home against the Redskins. The Cowboys rolled, 47-16, but the Eagles made it not matter with a 34-17 win of a game that was once 17-17 giving Cowboys owner Jerry Jones some hope who was watching the game on TV from his luxury suite.

The Ravens rested key players at home while the Steelers (-2) had to win for a chance at the playoffs, but backup quarterback Robert Griffin III managed a 28-10 win to push them to 14-2 and extend their win streak to 12 games.

The Falcons have won and covered six of their last eight and closed the season out with three straight wins with a 28-22 overtime win at Tampa Bay. Bucs QB Jameis Winston started a club called the 5K-30-30 with 5,000 yards passing, 30 TD passes and 30 interceptions. His last pick was a game-winning interception for the Falcons, which also sent the total over 48.5,

The Sunday night game was the most important game of the day because it decided who the NFC West champion would be along with home-field advantage for the NFC Playoffs. It was the type of risk that could also wipe away all the winnings the books made from the previous 15 games on the day. Can you imagine sweating all week booking Week 17 games properly while waiting for a 'sweet tweet' to tell us more about Josh Allen and DeShaun Watson’s status, babysitting the numbers like no other week? And then the final game posted stabs you in the gut.

“We have a six-figure decision on the 49ers,” said Stoneback, a Seattle fan who usually doesn’t get to root for the Seahawks too hard because the house is usually rooting against them.

The 49ers (-3.5) would win 26-21 at Seattle sending the game over 46 total points which completed an impressive day for overs going 13-3. Favorites would go 7-8-1 ATS with four underdogs winning out, none bigger than Dolphins.

[Udog]

NFL

Wild Card Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 4

Houston Texans
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Houston

New England Patriots
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games at home
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 10 games
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England


Sunday, January 5

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
New Orleans is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Seattle is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Total Talk - WC Saturday
Chris David

Wild Card Total Betting History

Playing the ‘under’ on Wild Card weekend has been a money-making machine for bettors over the years, especially lately. The low side has gone 3-1 each of the last two postseasons and it’s on a 20-7-1 (74%) over the last seven years. If you go back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the ‘under’ is 38-21-1 (64%).

2018 Wild Card Results
Indianapolis 21 at Houston 7 - UNDER 49
Seattle 22 at Dallas 24 - OVER 43.5
L.A. Chargers 23 at Baltimore 17 - UNDER 42.5
Philadelphia 16 at Chicago 15 - UNDER 42

2017 Wild Card Results
Tennessee 22 at Kansas City 21 - UNDER 44
Atlanta 26 at L.A. Rams 13 - UNDER 48.5
Buffalo 10 at Jacksonville 3 - UNDER 40
Carolina 31 at New Orleans 26 - OVER 47.5

Will we finally see a ‘over’ barrage in the Wild Card round? That’s a hard question to answer but if there was a sign of change coming, Week 17 did watch the high side go 12-3-1 and that was eye-opening considering the last week of the season has always trended to ‘under’ tickets.

Best Bet Selections

Eleven games left in the NFL season and I’m happy to write the “Total Talk” pieces again for the playoffs. For those of you following along to my “Best Bet” selections on the Bet and Collect Podcast this season, thanks for the support and hope you cashed tickets. The 17-week record finished at 29-22 (57%) and for the postseason, I’m going to provide my selections here plus you can listen to the analysis every weekend as well.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Buffalo at Houston (ESPN, 4:35 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this game at 39 ½ and it’s been pushed up to 43 as of Tuesday. Houston has been installed as the short home favorite (-2 ½) and based on that number, oddsmakers are expecting a 23-20 win for the Texans. The number getting juiced up does look like a headscratcher on paper, knowing Buffalo has watched the ‘under’ go 12-4 this season with identical 6-2 marks coming at both home and on the road. Houston has also leaned to the ‘under’ (9-7) and that could easily be 10-6 if Titans running back Derrick Henry didn’t scamper for the late score last week.

Looking at those numbers, the obvious lean would be to a low-scoring match up on Saturday but I can see why the number was nudged up. Including the meaningless loss to Tennessee in Week 17, the Texans went 3-3 against playoff teams this season and they averaged 27.6 points per game in the wins while only scoring 16.3 PPG in the losses. We can toss out the statistics from last Sunday but it’s hard to forget the 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore on Nov. 17. Including that result, the Texans have allowed 28.3 PPG against playoff teams and while that number drops to 22.3 PPG in the three wins, it’s still not great.

Can Buffalo get anywhere near that average? While the Bills defense (15.6 PPG) has been lights out on the road, the same can’t be said for the offense (21.5 PPG). Overall, the Bills schedule was very weak and they only faced five playoff teams and a 1-4 record certainly doesn’t offer up much confidence. If you want to rationalize to the Bills at all, they did go 1-1 on the road versus playoff teams but the offense only mustered up 15.5 PPG versus the Titans (W 14-7) and Patriots (L 17-24).

Houston defeated Buffalo 20-13 in the 2018 regular season at home and the ‘under’ (40 ½) was never in doubt. Including that result, the ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series.

The Bills haven’t had much postseason history, their last trip coming in the 2017 season and that ended with a 10-3 loss at Jacksonville in the Wild Card round. Houston owns a 3-5 all-time record, and that includes a 3-2 mark at NRG Stadium. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in those games. When Houston wins at home in the playoffs, it’s held opponents to 14, 13 and 10 points. When it loses, it’s allowed 21 and 30 while only scoring seven points in those games. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson wasn’t sharp in last year’s Wild Card 21-7 loss to Indianapolis at home.

Fearless Prediction

I often tell myself not to “overthink it” and I believe that’s the case here. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Buffalo go into Houston and win the game, I don’t believe second-year QB Josh Allen will be the reason if that happens. The Bills Team Total Under (20) looks like a solid lean knowing they’ve only cracked that number five times in their last 16 road games and never against a team with a winning record. I think we’re looking at a 21-16, 20-13 outcome with Houston coming out on top.


Tennessee at New England (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The late-night matchup on Saturday also saw upward steam as the total was sent out at 41 ½ and the number is up to 44. It’s going to be weird to see New England playing in the Wild Card round, something it hasn’t done since the 2009 playoffs. For those who remember, the Patriots were embarrassed 33-14 at Foxboro by the Ravens as running back Ray Rice dominated for Baltimore.

Fast forward to this matchup and it appears that bettors are expecting another upset in New England, with the early action going to Tennessee (+5 ½ to +4 ½). Since that loss to the Ravens, the Patriots have gone 12-2 at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs but plenty of those victories came on the shoulders of QB Tom Brady. If you’ve watched New England play this season, you’re well aware that the offense is nowhere near previous squads. The Patriots are ranked seventh in scoring offense (26.2 PPG) but the production has dropped a bit at home (25.2 PPG).

Defensively the unit only allowed 14.1 PPG albeit against a strength of schedule that was tied for second to last in the NFL. When facing playoff opponents, New England went 3-3 and the defense was great in the wins (12.3 PPG) but humbled in the losses (29.3 PPG). The ‘under’ was 9-7 on the season. The Titans defense (20.7 PPG) wasn’t on the same level as New England but it was sneaky good this season and it played a tougher scheduled (8th). Also, the unit traveled well and only allowed 17.6 PPG outside of Nashville. Tennessee was a clear-cut ‘under’ team at the beginning of the season, with the low side cashing in five of their first six games. Then, QB Marcus Mariota was benched for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans averaged 27.6 PPG compared to 16.3 PPG with Mariota. That production led to a 9-1 ‘over’ mark down the stretch and that includes the aforementioned lucky ticket last week in Houston.

It’s nice to see Tannehill getting some recognition but I still have my reservations on him and the Titans defense too. Tennessee only faced four playoff teams with him under center and they went 2-2, which includes Houston laying down last week. A 35-32 home win over Kansas City in Week 10 was surprising for the Titans, especially since the Chiefs let up the box score with 530 total yards. Including the Week 5 outcome to the Bills (L 7-14) at home, the Titans were 2-3 overall against playoff squads and the ‘under’ went 3-2 in those games.

These teams have met twice in the last three seasons. Tennessee stomped New England 34-10 in the 2018 regular season at home and the ‘under’ (46 ½) connected. This was a statement win for Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who helped the Patriots win three Super Bowls playing linebacker for Bill Belichick. The pair also met in the 2017 playoffs and New England blasted Tennessee 35-14 as the ‘over’ cashed late with a meaningless touchdown by the Titans. Prior to that results, the Titans saw the ‘under’ cash in their previous five postseason games – dating back to 2004 though.

Fearless Prediction

The question for me in this game - Can you back Tannehill in his first career playoff spot at Foxboro? During his tenure with Miami, he went 0-5 at Gillette Stadium while the Dolphins only averaged 11.6 PPG in the losses. All the blame can’t be placed on him, but his 4-10 touchdown-interception ratio didn’t help the cause. Fortunately for Tannehill, this Titans team has playmakers and I believe the Tennessee Team Total Over (19 ½) is a strong look. I also believe New England wins this game and that will have me leaning to the Over (44) in the game as well. I’ll call it 26-23 for the home team.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 4

Buffalo @ Houston

Game 141-142
January 4, 2020 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.066
Houston
131.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
30
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Under

Tennessee @ New England

Game 143-144
January 4, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
139.201
New England
134.604
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under


Sunday, January 5

Minnesota @ New Orleans

Game 145-146
January 5, 2020 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
131.480
New Orleans
143.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Philadelphia

Game 147-148
January 5, 2020 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
134.306
Philadelphia
129.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-1 1/2); Over

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


PLAYOFFS’ WORST OFFENSES

The Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Redskins, Dolphins (twice), Cowboys, Broncos and Steeler: that’s the list of teams the Bills have beaten this year. The best team and only playoff team on that list are the 9-7 Titans who were quaterbacked by Marcus Mariota back in Week 5. This week, the Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked offense heads to Houston to take on a Texans team who has the next worst DVOA offense (17th) out of the 12 playoff teams.

The Bills’ team total sits at 19.5 (-134) and will likely move up past the key number of 20.5 as the total continues to rise after opening at 39.5. Buffalo finished 4-4 down the stretch and hasn't topped 20 points since Thanksgiving.

The Houston offense hasn’t exactly been turning heads of late as well. Over the last three weeks, Deshaun Watson’s offense is averaging just 301 yards of offense per game which is the 24th-most over that stretch. Having their No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins shadowed by Buffalo corner Tre’Davious White could also mitigate the offense’s big-play ability.

We are going to wait to see if the Bills’ team total moves to 20.5 and will buy on the bigger number. However, we love the way the total is moving and are taking the Under 43.5. We might even buy another share down if Houston receiver WIll Fuller can’t suit up or may be limited.


HENRY TO SEND PATS PACKING

Titans running back Derrick Henry is a 250-pound truck that is capable of taking Tennessee to the divisional round. The big back has been an absolute terror against Top-10 teams this year per TeamRanking.com. Henry is averaging 144 yards per game rushing against the league’s best and faces a New England defense that is allowing 4.2 yards per carry (14th) on the year.

Henry’s rushing total sits at 90.5 yards which he has gone Over in five of his last six games. A big reason for his production is just sheer volume. Henry led the league at 20.5 rushes per game but saw nearly 24 totes a game over the last month. The Patriots have only faced three RBs who carried 20 or more times this year: Joe Mixon 25-136, Ezekiel Elliott 21-86 and Nick Chubb 20-131.

If the Titans have faith in their running game against New England and let Henry wear down the defense with 20-plus rushes, the 90.5 yard total is a reasonable play. Take the Over.


SCOTT OFF THE PRESS

The Seattle Seahawks’ rush defense is limping into the playoffs having giving up on average of 172 rushing yards per game over the final three matches of the year which works out 5.7 yards per carry. They ranked 26th in DVOA rush defense and will have to deal with Philadelphia’s impressive offensive line who aided Boston Scott in his three rushing touchdowns and Miles Sanders to 5.8 ypc before exiting with an injury last week.

There is some uncertainty with the Eagles’ backfield heading into Sunday’s game, but it is a profitable situation to monitor as Seattle has allowed the second-most road rushing TDs in the league at 1.5 per game. Sanders is dealing with a “low-grade ankle sprain” and is considered day-to-day. Jordan Howard came back to the lineup last week and logged just one snap and may not be close to 100 percent.

If we had to pick a side, our money would be on Boston Scott especially after a trio of TDs last week. He proved he could get it done in the red zone taking three of his four RZ carries to the house. We are monitoring the situation, but are willing to put some money on Scott to score even if Sanders and Howard are part of the game plan — but likely limited.


HAND OF GOEDERT

Zach Ertz sounds like he won’t get any practice in this week as he tries to get back on the field while dealing with rib and kidney issues. Even if the star tight end does suit up, it will most likely be in a limited fashion meaning Dallas Goedert will be the man again against the Seahawks.

Goedert has seen 22 targets over the last two weeks and should be the focal point of the passing offense against the Seahawks. Seattle let 49ers TE George Kittle put up 86 yards on seven grabs last week and is averaging 67.7 yards to opposing TEs (3rd-most).

Goedert’s markets aren’t open yet as books are waiting to see what happens with all the injuries the Eagles are dealing with. But knowing what our limit is total-wise before the market is set is a valuable tool we can use. We are taking the Over on Goedert’s receiving total on any number below 72 yards as Carson Wentz is averaging 43 passes a game over the last four games.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


SINGLING OUT SINGLETARY

Houston has the worst DVOA defense (26th) in the playoffs. Their 26th-ranked pass defense shouldn’t be overmatched versus Buffalo’s 23rd-ranked pass offense, but their rush defense that allowed 171 yards on the ground per game over the final weeks could get exposed to the Bills’ rushing game and more specifically Devin Singletary.

In Weeks 9 through 16, the rookie running back averaged 16.5 carries for 79.6 yards. Singletary could be in for a big game as his opponent is allowing running backs to rush for 5.8 yards per carry which is the second-most ypc over that stretch.

With the inconsistencies of Buffalo’s passing game, its best route to the Divisional round is through its ground game. We still don’t like the Bills running up the score, but they certainly can find success on the ground. Take the Over on Singletary’s rushing total of 69.5 yards.


LIBERTY BELL SACK SQUAD

Nine of the 12 teams in the playoffs finished in the Top-15 in sacks per game with only Seattle, Houston and Baltimore finishing in the bottom half. Of those nine, six finished inside the Top-10 over the final weeks (MIN, GB, NO, KC, TEN and PHI). We could be seeing a fair share of sacks in the Wild Card games especially in Philadelphia where the Seahawks are allowing 3.9 sacks on the road this year.

Russell Wilson is playing behind an offensive line that has four members on the I.R. and its starting left tackle Duane Brown is likely out for Sunday’s game. The Philly D-line looked great at creating pressure last week in New York as the Eagles sacked Daniel Jones four times and forced two fumbles.

Carson Wentz has played admirably with his group of rag-tag receivers, but Wentz can get in trouble waiting for his practice-squad receivers to get open. In his last five home games, the Eagles QB has been sacked 16 times. Having injured running backs trying to pick up their pass-pro assignments won’t help his cause either.

We are putting our 2020 dollars on the Over 5.5 sacks in this Sunday evening tilt.


THOMAS THE CATCH ENGINE

The Minnesota Vikings secondary will have its hands full in dealing with Saints WR Michael Thomas. Thomas led the league in receiving yards (1,725) and set an NFL record with 149 receptions. On Sunday, the Saints receiver will face a Minnesota defense that is allowing 77.3 yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs — the 7th-most in the league.

Through four career playoff games, Thomas is averaging nearly eight catches for 106 yards and topped 130 yards twice. At home this year, he is putting up a league best 128 yards on 11 catches.

Minnesota gave up a 13-116 to Davante Adams in Week 16 and a 9-99 to Keenan Allen the week before. We have no problem taking the Over on Thomas’ reception total of 9.5 as the receiver has reached 10 grabs in seven of eight home games this year.


INDOOR INHABITANTS

The New Orleans Saints have scored the most first-half points over the last three weeks and are putting up over 14 points in the first 30 at home this year. Since Week 13, New Orleans’ first-half totals have been 38, 24, 20, 55 and 26 points as its defense gives up 11.1 points in the first two quarters at home.

Minnesota has been consistent in the first half, putting up 14 points a game at home and on the road. They are 2-2 O/U first-half totals of 24 or more over the last four games (not including Week 17).

Helping these teams hit the Over are their abilities to keep drives alive. New Orleans is converting 48 percent of its third downs at home (3rd) while Minnesots is converting 45 percent of third downs on the road (6th).

If you’re looking for an early play for this Sunday afternoon tilt, think about taking the 1H Over 24 as both teams are quite comfortable putting up points indoors.

[Udog]

Today Bill O’Brien said Houston Texans WR Will Fuller (groin) will be a game time decision on Saturday. I’m told by multiple sources that it’s going to be a real long shot for Fuller to play. Obviously they’ll keep working him to see if there’s a chance he can go.


Eagles do-it-all back Miles Sanders (ankle) is hopeful to practice Friday, and a source says his plan is to play vs. SEA barring a setback. It's a low-ankle injury, so the issue has been inflammation. He is improving. 'He wants to play,' the source said.


For the first time since Week 15, Vikings’ RB Dalvin Cook was a full participant in practice. On track to return to the lineup Sunday vs. the Saints.


Officially back: the Texans have activated DL J.J. Watt to the 53-man roster and he will play on Saturday, per source. The team placed starting S Tashaun Gispon on IR to make room for Watt


Eagles placed G Brandon Brooks on Reserve/Injured and signed WR Shelton Gibson.

[Udog]

Total Talk - WC Sunday
Chris David

Minnesota at New Orleans (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 46 and as of Wednesday morning, the number has been pushed up to 49 ½. This is the highest total of the Wild Card weekend and based on the public perception of shootouts in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, you can understand the uptick.

Even though quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints have the ability to light up the scoreboard, the ‘over’ was only 9-7 this season. More surprising, Minnesota owned a 9-7 ‘over’ record and that included a 5-3 mark to the high side on the road. Delving into that number further, the Vikings closed the season a 5-0 run as visitors and as much heat as QB Kirk Cousins takes, they averaged 32.4 points per game over that stretch. Minnesota went 3-2 in those games and the reason it didn’t do better was because the defense allowed 25.4 PPG. On the season, the Vikings were ranked sixth in scoring defense (18.9 PPG) but that number spiked against playoff teams (25.4 PPG). The Vikings went 1-4 in those games and that’s why Cousins gets criticized and why I often label Minnesota as a “bully” team.

The total results (4-4) at New Orleans for home produced a stalemate despite averaging 28.4 PPG. The attack did have two clunkers during this span, defeating Dallas 12-10 in Week 4 before getting humbled 26-9 by Atlanta in Week 10. New Orleans was ranked 13th in scoring defense (21.6 PPG) and while the unit has improved over the last few seasons, watching the 49ers captured a 48-46 road win over the Saints in Week 14 reminded us of those weaknesses. The loss to San Francisco was the only setback for New Orleans against a playoff team this season, who finished 4-1 overall. Make a note that all five of those games went ‘over’ the number and they were clear-cut shootouts with an average combined score of 64 PPG. If you take out the combined 94 points versus SF, the average is still strong at 56.5 PPG. These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The ‘over’ went 2-1 and that includes Minnesota’s improbable 29-24 win over New Orleans in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs.

Cousins has only started one playoff game in his career when he was with Washington and they were blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, the experience edge goes to Brees with an 8-6 record in the playoffs with New Orleans and the ‘over’ has gone 9-5 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
New Orleans saw the ‘under’ cash in both home playoff affairs last season as it rallied past Philadelphia 20-14 in the Divisional Playoffs before getting stunned 26-23 by the L.A. Rams in the NFC Championship. The totals on those games both closed in the fifties (52, 55) and I believe this one will too by kickoff. Prior to those results, the Saints were on a 5-0 ‘over’ run at home with Brees in the playoffs and the best production for the future Hall of Famer came in Wild Card game. New Orleans has averaged 40.3 PPG in its last three WC spots at home and I believe they put up another crooked number and cash its Win Total Over (28 ½). I do believe Minnesota will score as well and its Team Total (20) Over is tempting, but let’s keep it simple and drill the Over (49 ½) in the game only. I’ll call it New Orleans 42 Minnesota 27 in the Sunday’s opener.

Seattle at Philadelphia (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Of the four Wild Card playoff matchups, this is the only total that has seen early ‘under’ money. The SuperBook sent out an opener of 45 ½ and the total sits at 45 as of Wednesday evening. This is also the game that features a rematch from this year’s regular season as Seattle captured a convincing 17-9 road win over Philadelphia in Week 12 as a two-point road favorite and the ‘under’ (45 ½) was never in doubt. Both clubs had to deal with windy conditions at Lincoln Financial Field and that likely helped make the game very sloppy. The pair combined for seven turnovers, with the Eagles coughing it up five times. Plus, Seattle has 12 penalties and key drops by their wide receivers.

Including that win, Seattle has now won five straight against the Philadelphia and QB Russell Wilson is now 4-0 in his career against the Eagles while the ‘under’ has cashed in all four of those games. While everybody knows Seattle is one of the toughest venues in the NFL, what we’ve seen from Wilson in his career (38-25-1) on the road is impressive and the 7-1 record this season was tied for the best mark in the league as a visitor.

What’s more eye-opening is that Seattle has been able to score while traveling great distances and that’s been a common theme. In their last seven games played in the Eastern Time Zone, the Seahawks are averaging 27.4 PPG and that includes the 17-spot versus the Birds. The ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in those games and the numbers would probably be better but Seattle’s defense has been better on the road (21.1 PPG) this season than at home (28.6 PPG), which is crazy when many of us still reminisce about the “Legion of Boom” unit.

Philadelphia has some crazy home-away numbers as well, especially for totals. The Eagles saw the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road but the ‘under’ was 6-2 at the Linc. The difference has been the Philadelphia defense, which allowed 16.8 PPG compared to an eye-opening 27.5 PPG on the road. Another factor helping the ‘under’ at home has been the inept Philadelphia offense. The unit posted 21 PPG at home and 27.1 PPG as visitors and all those stats produce identical 6-2 marks.

What head coach Doug Pederson and the Eagles did this season was incredible, especially winning their final four games with a short-handed club. It should’ve been five straight but people forget the embarrassing 37-31 collapse at Miami in Week 13. The one thing those opponents had in common is that none are in the playoffs. Against postseason clubs, Philadelphia went 2-3 and that includes a 0-2 record at home against the Seahawks and Patriots (10-17), both ‘under’ winners. Seattle went 3-3 against playoff teams this season, two of the victories coming on the road and the total went 1-1 in those games.

Fearless Predictions

Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games and they’ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. Those trends combined with Seattle’s ability to score on the East Coast lately should have you supporting the ‘over’ with confidence but the injuries and depth concerns for Philadelphia are hard to overlook. QB Carson Wentz, who’s making his playoff debut, has been playing great lately but I expect the home squad to lean on their defense and the form at home in their last six games (13.3 PPG) has been lights out. I don’t see both teams getting to 20 points and I believe kicking will be a key factor. I’d lean to ‘over’ bets in total field goals made but my only lean for this contest is on the Under (45). I see a 19-16 outcome here, likely Seattle, but whoever wins this game will get lit up for 30-plus points at Green Bay or San Francisco in the Divisional Playoffs.

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Last two seasons, underdogs are 7-0-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.

Saturday
Bills (10-6) @ Texans (10-6)—Buffalo is in playoffs for 2nd time in three years, but they lost last five playoff games- their last playoff win was in 1995. Texans are in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won a Wild Card game three years ago. Bills lost three of last four games overall, scoring 14.3 ppg, completing less than half their passes; they’re 5-3 SU on road TY, 4-1-1 ATS as a road underdog- they’re 7-0 SU scoring more than 17 points. Seven of their last nine games went under the total. Texans are 6-2 TY in games decided by 6 or fewer points; they’re 1-5 ATS as a home favorite. Six of their last nine games stayed under. Houston won four of last five series games; Buffalo lost its last three visits here, by 12-6-7 points.

Titans (9-7) @ Patriots (12-4)— New England is in Wild Card game for first time in ten years; they won AFC the last three years, played in AFC title game the last eight years. Patriots split their last eight games overall after an 8-0 start; they’re 0-3 allowing more than 17 points. NE is 4-4 ATS as a home favorite- four of their last five games went over. Patriots are -3 in turnovers the lat two games, after being +24 up to that point. Tennessee is 7-3 TY with Tannehill at QB; they won their last three road games, scoring 36 ppg. Titans are 5-3 SU on road TY; they’re 2-2 ATS as a road underdog. Eight of their last nine games went over. Tennessee is in playoffs for only 2nd time in last 11 years; they upset the Chiefs in Arrowhead in this round two years ago, then lost 35-14 here. NE won seven of last eight series games, but lost 34-10 in Nashville LY.

Sunday
Vikings (10-6) @ Saints (5-10)— Saints won five of last seven series games; home team won both their playoff meetings, with Minnesota scoring GW TD on a 61-yard TD pass as time expired in their 29-24 win two years ago. NO beat Vikings 30-20 on road LY- this is Vikings’ first visit here in five years. Minnesota split its eight road games SU; they’re 1-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Vikings are 7-1 TY when they allow 20 or fewer points, 3-5 when they allow more. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. New Orleans lost NFC title game at home LY; they’re in playoffs for third year in row. Saints scored 38 ppg in winning last three games overall. Minnesota is in playoffs for 3rd time in five years; they lost 38-7 at Philly in NFC title game two years ago.

Seahawks (11-5) @ Eagles (9-7)— Seattle (-1.5) won 17-9 here in Week 12, coming off their bye; Eagles didn’t score TD until last 0:20 of game- they turned ball over five times (-3). Seahawks won their last five games with Philly, also winning their last five visits here- their last loss in Philly was in 1989. Seahawks lost three of last four games overall to fall to #5 seed; they’re 7-1 SU on road TY, with only loss 28-12 to the Rams in Week 14. Seattle is in playoffs of 7th time in eight years; they won their first playoff game nine of last ten times they were in playoffs. Eagles won their last four games to win NFC East; they’re 5-3 SU at home TY. Philly is in playoffs for 3rd in row, winning this round 16-15 in Chicago LY. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


THE FIRST 15 OF THE WILD CARD

We are already on the Buffalo/Houston Under 43.5 but there is more meat on the Under bone in a first-quarter play. The Bills (2.7) and Texans (2.9) sit 30th and 29th respectively in first-quarter points scored this year. It has been even worse for Buffalo of late as it has scored just three first-quarter points over its last three games and has just three 1Q points in its last three road games. Looking through their schedule, they haven’t scored a 1Q touchdown on the road since Week 2, back on September 16.

Buffalo is 0-3-2 SU in the first quarter of its last five and 1-4 O/U on 1Q totals of 7.5. The Texans have had much more success in the first 15 as they are 2-1-2 SU in the first quarter in their last five and 4-1 O/U.

With Buffalo’s inability to score early and rely on Josh Allen comebacks too often, we are taking the Texans 1Q Money Line at -130.


SHOW US YOUR TDs

The New Orleans Saints scored the fifth-most TDs per game at 3.2 this year and have averaged five TDs per game over their last three. In the red zone, the Saints have scored a TD on 80 percent of their trips inside the 20 since Week 15 and 60 percent on the year. The Saints’ games have averaged 8.25 TDs per game over their last four and are 3-1 O/U TD totals of 5.5.

Minnesota is scoring more than three TDs per game on the road this year thanks to getting six points in the red zone 66 percent of the time. In their last five road games, the Vikes are 3-2 O/U TD totals of 5.5.

With Dalvin Cook expected to suit up for Sunday's matchup, we like both offenses to be able to reach the endzone from anywhere on the field. We are taking the Over 5.5 total touchdowns.


BETTER OFF RED ZONE

Lots of people are talking about the possibility of the Titans knocking off the Pats Saturday night and it is justified. Tennessee is averaging 412 yards of offense a game over their last three games which is the best mark out of every playoff team. Only Baltimore is averaging more rushing yards a game (186) and no playoff team is getting more yards per completion than Ryan Tannehill (13.9).

The real threat to the Pats is the Titans red-zone offense. Tannehill’s crew is scoring a TD on 87.5 percent of their red-zone trips since Week 15 which equals 2.3 red-zone touchdowns per game.

New England has been one of the league’s best at forcing teams to kick field goals inside the 20 (48 percent TD scoring %) but have padded their stats versus Bottom-10 offenses 10 times this year. In the two games against Top-10 offenses (Baltimore and K.C.), New England allowed five TDs in six trips to the red zone.

We like the Titans offense a lot better than New England’s and with the Pats liking to receive the ball in the second half, we could see the Titans with the first chance to put up points on the board. We are taking a Titans touchdown as the first score of the game at +250.


ALL MY WILSON

Yesterday we wrote about the Seahawks offensive-line problems and how much Russell Wilson has been getting sacked on the road. When we are looking at QB rushing totals, allowed pressure rates is a great stat to look at because getting outside the pocket and taking off on non-designed QB rush plays are where we can make the money.

Wilson is 9-7 O/U on rushing totals of 20.5 this year and finished with the 6th most QB rushing yards — averaging 21.4 yards per rush a game. Sunday's opponent, the Eagles, have allowed two QBs over the last three weeks to rush for 26 yards or more while Wilson has averaged 28.3 rushing yards a game over his 13 playoff appearances — going 7-6 O/U on totals of 24.5.

We think his rushing total is little high at 24.5, especially one week after being 18.5. We might shop around and hope it opens closer to 20-23 yards but love Wilson’s ability to escape pressure and pick up yards on the ground. We will take the Over 24.5, but will shop around first.

[Udog]

Saturday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt

The NFL Playoffs have arrived and that means that bettors get to spend their usual amount of time handicapping NFL during the week, but narrowing down the research to just four games. That's quite critical in itself, but at the same time, just because it's the playoffs should you need to force a bet. Yes, you've got more time to dig into games, but if you don't find anything, you shouldn't be betting full units on plays you aren't fully comfortable with. Remember, if these matchups were held during a regular Sunday slate during the year, you might simply pass and move on to the next game. An important concept to keep in mind this time of year.

Nobody wants to read about how to pass on games in the sports betting market though, so let's see if we can find some significant angles for the games this weekend. The two AFC Wild Card games are up first, so that's where I'll begin.

Buffalo at Houston (4:35 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: Buffalo +2.5

A couple things to note off the top here, and that is, you probably want to buy this up to +3 for the best of the number, and with the juice currently sitting on the Houston side of things, it's not all that expensive. Secondly, thinking about the money-line (ML) with Buffalo is worth a look, but being safe is probably the better option for multiple reasons. Eventually this Bills run of not having won a playoff game since 1995 will be halted, and there is probably no better time then the present to do so.

However, I say taking the points is the better option because of one thing that speaks for backing Buffalo, but somewhat against taking the ML without some points already in your pocket. Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage.

In this 12-team football tournament known as the NFL Playoffs, in the past five years, the team that's got the worst opponent 3rd down conversion percentage entering the playoffs – ie the defense can't get off the field – is 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) during Wild Card Weekend. That's the role the Houston Texans find themselves in this season with an absurd opponent 3rd down conversion percentage of 48.51. Basically every other 3rd down gets converted by Houston opponents, and if you give a Bills offense that prefers to sustain (and capitalize) on long drives, a much better chance to do so, the Bills defense will make sure things look bleak for you the rest of the way.

The problem with that stat suggesting a ML play is the fact that the straight up (SU) record by these teams is actually 4-1 SU in these five games. That's a lot of narrow wins by home favorites in this spot, as their suspect 3rd down defense will always leave the backdoor cover open at worst, or forces said team to be playing uphill for the majority of the game and squeaking by with a late score.

Last year it was the Dallas Cowboys in this spot, and as -2.5 home favorites – the identical role Houston is currently in – a 24-22 SU win by Dallas was good enough to advance but not good enough for their backers. The 2017 postseason saw a similar story with the Saints winning SU but losing ATS by the hook in a five-point win over Carolina, while the 2015 Steelers pushed as small road favorites, and the 2014 Cowboys couldn't beat the Lions by enough margin.

This game landing on two points or less in a Houston win isn't the most likeliest of options, so I can understand a ML play on Buffalo only if you like the Bills, but a lot of funky things can happen in the playoffs and you can never have too many points because of it.

Buffalo's defense should be able to contain a Texans offense that runs quite hot and cold, and with the banged up playmaker bodies they have right now, asking them to be on the hotter side of that equation is tough. If Josh Allen wants to continue to take steps forward in his growth and development as a player, winning a playoff game now would be just that.

Buffalo comes into the playoffs as the worst 3rd down team on offense – convert just 35.85% of their 3rd downs – but to do that and still be a 10-win team is impressive. It means that the defense keeps Buffalo in games no matter what, and against a Houston defense that gives up what they do on the “money down” the Bills offense should be able to get things running rather smoothly quite early.

Buffalo might end up being a rather 'popular' dog this weekend, but I'm more then fine with that being the case with these two teams involved.


Tennessee at New England (8:15 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: New England Team Total Over 24.5

Tennessee sounds like they could be another underdog that becomes a popular choice, as the belief in New England continuing to reign over the AFC might be at an all time low. And really, it probably deserves to be given what the Patriots have put out their on the field since about November 1st. The schedule got tougher and better teams – teams with winning records – exposed New England.

Yet, while I would side with the overall idea that the Patriots reign atop this conference is over this year, I'm not so sure this is the game that we will see it happen. This year's New England team has the look of an aging champion who knows time is short and they know they'll likely fall but they won't go down without a fight. A home playoff game against a Titans team that's got a QB that Bill Belichick knows really well, is one of those “last stand” moments for the Patriots as those aging champions.

A glimpse into what was is all this Patriots team can provide their fans this year, and at home against Tennessee I believe that's the Patriots team we see. Because what do we see next from those aging champions? The youthful, upcoming alpha puts a beating on them as the torch doesn't get passed, but taken. Doesn't that sound like what may happen in Kansas City next week if New England wins this one at home?

If the Patriots are the ones who stand up and look like the dominant Pats of old here, getting 25 or more points should be attainable. In games against teams that made the playoffs this season, Tennessee gave up 27 points per game in the four games that mattered (excluding Week 17 vs Houston).

And if I'm wrong, and this is indeed the spot that the Patriots do fall, I doubt they go out with a whimper on their own field. As I touched on earlier, Belichick's got plenty of past game plans for facing Ryan Tannehill, and has got a good idea for what should likely work. Flip that knowledge into an early turnover or two, and the Patriots put up points.

Finally, as I touched on in a piece a few weeks ago when Buffalo was visiting New England in Week 16, you “don't tiptoe into Foxboro” if you expect to win, and a Titans win is going to have to likely come because Tennessee needs 28+ points to win.