Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Divisional Round

Last four seasons, underdogs are 9-6-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.

Saturday
49ers are in playoffs for first time in seven years; they went 3-2 in last five regular season games, with the three wins by total of 10 points- SF is 3-4-1 ATS as a home favorite TY. Over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Cousins got his first playoff win LW; this is Garoppolo’s first playoff game. Minnesota is 5-4 SU on road TY- they’re 2-2 ATS as a road underdog. Vikings are 8-1 TY when they allow 20 or fewer points, 3-5 when they allow more. Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Minnesota played in NFC title game two years ago, when Keenum was their QB. Home side won last four Viking-49er games; Minnesota lost nine of last ten road games in this series, with last win here in ’07. Vikings beat SF 24-16 at home LY. Last six years, #1 seeds are 11-1 SU in this round, 7-5 ATS.

Tennessee is 8-3 TY with Tannehill at QB; they won their last four road games, scoring 32 ppg. Titans are 6-3 SU on road TY; they’re 3-2 ATS as a road underdog. Eight of their last ten games went over. Tennessee is in playoffs for only 2nd time in last 11 years. Last week was Tannehill’s first playoff game; he went 8-15/72 passing, but the Titans won in Foxboro, running for 200+ yards. Baltimore won its last ten games after a 2-2 start; they’re in playoffs for 8th time in 12 years- last time they got by this round was 2012. Baltimore is 2-4 ATS as a home favorite TY. LW was Jackson’s first playoff game; Ravens have run for 200+ nine times TY, including last three games in row. Ravens-Titans split last ten meetings; Titans haven’t been to Baltimore in five years. Last six years, #1 seeds are 11-1 SU in this round, 7-5 ATS.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Divisional Round


Saturday, January 11

Minnesota @ San Francisco

Game 301-302
January 11, 2020 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
136.463
San Francisco
136.639
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
Even
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+7); Over

Tennessee @ Baltimore

Game 303-304
January 11, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
140.638
Baltimore
146.269
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+9); Over


Sunday, January 12

Houston @ Kansas City

Game 305-306
January 12, 2020 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
130.014
Kansas City
144.650
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 14 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-9 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Green Bay

Game 305-306
January 12, 2020 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
130.801
Green Bay
138.127
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4
46
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4); Under

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


MARK MY WORDS

The Baltimore Ravens scored more touchdowns by tight ends than any other team in the league, finishing the year with 14. Most of that production was done by the Ravens’ Mark Andrews who led the league’s highest-scoring offense in targets, catches, receiving yards and touchdowns. Andrews averaged 62.9 yards per game (7th) and 14.2 yards per reception (4th) at home this year.

The Baltimore weapon will face a Titans defense that gave up 57.8 yards per game (12th-most) to opposing TEs and allowed five opposing TEs to eclipse their season averages over the last six weeks.

We are buying Over shares of Andrews’ yardage total of 49.5, as he is 5-2 O/U on that total over his last seven games and we don’t think his “limited” practice tag is of any major concern.


AARON TO AARON

Aaron Jones is a big reason the Green Bay Packers are hosting a Divisional playoff game. Jones was second in the league in touchdowns with 16 and averaged nearly 100 total yards a game. Part of his success was his role in the passing game as the Green Bay running back had three or more catches eight times and put up nearly 30 yards receiving a game.

The Seattle Seahawks have been burned by opposing running backs on the ground (167 yards per game in Weeks 15-17) and through the air (61 receiving yards in Weeks 15-17) of late. With Seattle giving up just 1.1 passing TDs per game (4th-fewest) and forcing 0.9 interceptions per game (6th-most) this year, Aaron Rodgers might need to look underneath a bit more on Sunday night.

We are jumping on the Over 24.5 receiving yards for Jones as he is averaged 33.7 yards receiving in all 13 of Green Bay’s wins this year.


SATURDAY 6-POINT TEASER

For the second week in a row, we are spoiled with a Saturday and Sunday filled with playoff football that doesn’t involve hopping around to different games — the perfect schedule. We are looking to tease both Saturday games and find the best bet that will hopefully keep us alive with action throughout the day, as well as earning close to double our bet.

With the line sitting at Minnesota +7 as of Wednesday night, we are going to push that to +13 and take a very underappreciated Vikings team for nearly two touchdowns. The Vikings did not lose by more than 13 points all year and were 3-2 ATS as underdogs this year. We also like the fact if San Francisco gets up by more than 10 points, Minnesota has the weapons to answer quickly (hopefully the injury news with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are just smoke).

For the nightcap, we like teasing the total down to 40.5 as we think both teams could put up points, especially if Baltimore gets up early and forces the Titans to play catch up. Tennessee showed us it can put up 20 points on the road against a Top-5 defense and Baltimore is the highest-scoring team in the league.

Our two-game, six-point teaser looks like this: Minnesota +13 & TEN/BAL Over 40.5 for -110


WILLING TO WAGER ON WILLIAMS

Since coming back from injury in Week 16, Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams has topped 53.5 yards rushing, passed 2.5 receptions and eclipsed 23.5 yards receiving in both games. All of those are the RB’s totals for this weekend versus Houston’s 26th-ranked DVOA defense and 31st-ranked pass defense to opposing running backs. Williams’ backers could be treating themselves to top-shelf selections after Sunday’s afternoon game.

Williams has averaged 17.5 touches since his return and ran to the tune of 6.75 yards per carry and 8.14 yards per reception over that two-game stretch. Houston didn’t get burned on the ground last week as Devin Singletary rushed for just 58 yards on 13 carries, but the Buffalo back did take seven targets and turn them into six catches for 76 yards with a long of 38.

We are getting behind Williams in the passing game and taking a long look at all three of his passing props with the Over in mind: 2.5 receptions, 23.5 yards receiving and a longest reception of 13.5 yards.

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Divisional Round

Last four seasons, underdogs are 9-6-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.

Sunday
Houston has never been past this round, going 0-3 in their history. Texans rallied back from a 17-3 deficit, upset the Chiefs 31-24 (+3.5) at Arrowhead in Week 6; Houston had 35 first downs, outgained KC 472-309 and didn’t punt- they had three turnovers, missed a FG. Texans allowed 30+ points in five of its six losses; they’re 5-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Three of their last four games stayed under total. Chiefs won their last six games (under 5-1), four by 10+ points; they’re 3-2-1 ATS this year as a home favorite. You’re reading ***************.com. KC held three of its last four opponents under 280 yards. Chiefs are in playoffs of fifth year in row, losing AFC title game at home LY; over last five years, #2 seeds are 3-6-1 ATS in this round.

Green Bay-Seattle have met three times in playoffs; home side won all three games. Home side won last eight series games overall; Seahawks lost their last eight visits to Lambeau- their last win here was 20 years ago. Seattle lost three of last five games; they’re 8-1 SU on road TY, with only loss to the Rams, 2-0 ATS as a road underdog. Wilson is 9-5 in playoff games, 6-1 in his first game each year- he played his last year of college at Wisconsin. Under is 3-1-1 in Seattle’s last five games. Green Bay is in playoffs for first time in three years; Rodgers is 9-7 in career playoff games, 5-3 in his first game each year. Packers won their last five games SU, are 5-3 ATS as a home favorite TY. seven of their last eight games stayed under the total.

[Udog]

Total Talk - DP Saturday
Chris David

Wild Card Weekend Recap

The ‘under’ trend continued in the Wild Card round last weekend as the low side went 4-0. Including those results, the ‘under’ has gone 10-2 (83%) the past three years in the opening round and it’s 24-7-1 (77%) in the last eight WC weekends. Going back even further to the 2004-05 postseason, the ‘under’ has gone 42-21-1 (67%). Perhaps things will change in 2021?

Divisional Playoff History

While the Wild Card weekend has produced a great return for ‘under’ bettors recently, the opposite can be said for the ‘over’ in the Divisional Playoffs. The high side has gone 8-4 (67%) in the last three years of the Divisional Round and we haven’t seen the ‘under’ produce a 3-1 mark or better since 2013. If you plan on chasing with ‘over’ wagers this weekend after the WC results, it’s safe to say you should hit at least one ticket.



If there are some angles that stick out in the above table, you can see that home teams have gone 9-3 in this round since 2016 and they’ve averaged 29.6 points per game while the visitors have notched 21.5 PPG.

Best Bet Selections

I didn’t hold back last week and came to the betting counter with six selections and the sweat meter was raised in a few of them. While I was fortunate to cash a few Team Total wagers on Buffalo and Tennessee, the Saints and Patriots didn’t do their part. The ‘under’ in the Seattle-Philadelphia game was never in doubt and the Wentz injury (Thanks Jadeveon!) helped us finish 3-3 on the weekend. Once again, you can hear all the analysis for the Divisional Round on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Minnesota at San Francisco (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 45 ½ and the number has dropped to 44 ½ as of Thursday. FoxBet, a major online shop for NJ and PA bettors, is a bit shorter at 44. I’m a little surprised of the slight downward movement, especially since weather isn’t expected to be a factor on the West Coast this Saturday afternoon.

Minnesota is coming off a solid 26-20 overtime road win over New Orleans last Sunday and while you don’t want to take anything away from the Vikings defense, the Saints certainly weren’t sharp and they left a handful of points off the board. The game went ‘under’ (50) and that result snapped a 5-0 ‘over’ run on the road for the Vikings.

Despite that ticket going to the low side, the Vikings offense did their part and that’s been a steady trend for the offense. Since being held to a combined 22 points in their first two road games of the season, Minnesota is averaging 30.8 PPG in its last seven outside of Minneapolis and they’ve played in some hostile environments (Chiefs, Cowboys, Seahawks) all season too.

Levi’s Stadium doesn’t necessarily put a scare in opponents but the 49ers went 6-2 at home this season and the ‘over’ was 5-3 in those games behind a San Francisco offense that averaged 32.4 PPG, ranked second at home in the league. The 49ers will be playing with rest and the club defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 after its ‘bye’ week in this year’s regular season. Prior to that win, the 49ers were winless in their last eight games (0-7-1) in the regular season when playing with rest. The ‘under’ (48) cashed against the Browns and the low side is now 3-0 after the bye for the 49ers since head coach Kyle Shanahan took over the team.

Shanahan will be making his postseason debut and he certainly doesn’t have as much playoff experience as his counterpart, Mike Zimmer of the Vikings (2-2 playoff record). However, he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons during their 2016 postseason run that ended in a collapsing 34-28 loss to New England. Prior to the Super Bowl, Atlanta scored 36 and 44 points at home in the playoffs as the top seed.

The 49ers won’t have Matt Ryan at quarterback, rather Jimmy Garropolo and some pundits would say that the youngster is better than Falcons veteran and that argument could be solidified this weekend if Jimmy G wins his playoff debut against the Vikings. You can’t dismiss his career record of 21-5 as a starter and he’s had to produce more lately because the Niners defensive unit has allowed 29.4 PPG in the final month of the season and that’s led to a 3-1-1 ‘over’ mark.

Garoppolo and Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins went head-to-head in Week 1 of the 2018 regular season and the Vikings captured a 24-16 win as the ‘under’ (46) connected. Cousins passed for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the win while Jimmy G struggled, tossing a career-high three interceptions. San Francisco hasn’t been in the playoffs since the 2013-14 season and during that run, the ‘under’ went 3-0 in three games. The Vikings have seen their ‘over/under’ results go 2-2 in the playoffs under Zimmer.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

Of the four Divisional Playoff teams going on the road this weekend, I believe Minnesota will have the best opportunity to put up points. The offense has traveled well recently and playing on the West Coast hasn’t been in issue either. They scored 39 at the Chargers and 30 at the Seahawks this season, plus they put up 31 on the Rams at Los Angeles in the 2018 regular season. All three of those games went ‘over’ and I believe this matchup will see points too. Along with playing the Minnesota Team Total Over (19 ½) in this spot, I believe San Francisco will match points too and that has me leaning Over (44 ½) in the game too. Let’s call it 34-30 for the 49ers.


Tennessee at Baltimore (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Saturday’s primetime matchup has also seen money come in on the ‘under’ as the total on the Tennessee-Baltimore matchup at FoxBet (NJ & PA only) moved from 49 to 47.

Similar to the Vikings, the Titans were on a great ‘over’ run to close the season (9-1) and on the road (4-0) but that came to an end in the WC round as they stifled the Patriots 20-13 as road favorites. Overall, Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ go 10-7 this season and that includes a 5-4 mark outside of Nashville. Since QB Ryan Tannehill took over as starter, the Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 9-2 and the team has scored 20 or more points in every game and the defense has certainly helped the cause – see last week's late touchdown at Foxboro.

I wasn’t surprised by Tennessee winning outright last Saturday but holding New England’s offense in check was certainly eye-opening especially since its scoring defense (20.2 PPG) wasn’t exactly lights out this season, ranked 12th in the league. However, its numbers on the road dropped to 17.1 PPG albeit seven of those games came against non-playoff teams and the Texans, one of the two playoff clubs, rolled out backups in Week 17.

Now Tennessee faces the top-ranked scoring offense in Baltimore (33.2 PPG) on the road and that’s a much stiffer test than New England. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has put up MVP numbers this season but the unit was better on the road (36.5 PPG) than at home (29.9 PPG). In eight games from Maryland, the total results went 4-4 and the Baltimore defense (18.6 PPG) certainly helped those outcomes.

Even though Jackson is 0-1 in the playoffs, the experienced edge goes to the Ravens with John Harbaugh as coach. He’s owns a 10-6 career postseason mark, which includes a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS mark at home. The loss came last season with Jackson under center and he played horrible in a 23-17 setback to the Los Angeles Chargers, completing just 48 percent of his passes.

Historically, the Ravens have seen the ‘under’ cash in six straight home playoff games and only two opponents were able to score more than 20 points during that span. Also, Tennessee has watched the ‘under’ cash in six of their last seven postseason games. Those stats have nothing to do with these teams but facts are facts. If you want another good tidbit for this game, check out Matt Blunt’s Sunday’s Best Bets, which focuses on an angle circling around NFL leading rusher -- Titans running back Derrick Henry.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

I believe Jackson will avenge what happened to him in last year’s playoffs and Baltimore will be hosting the AFC Championship next Sunday. However, my lean is based on the defense of Baltimore and I believe the unit will step up in this spot and I’m riding the tendencies we’ve seen under Harbaugh. When playing with rest, the Ravens have gone 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS under him and the defense has only allowed 15.1 PPG which has helped the ‘under’ go 8-4-1. I’m going to stay away from the Under on the game but back the Tennessee Team Total Under (19 ½) instead. Ravens by double digits here, 30-12 is my projection.

[Udog]

Total Talk - DP Sunday
Chris David

As stated in Saturday’s piece, the Divisional Playoff history has favored the home team and both hosts are expected to advance in these games too. The Chiefs are the only team that played in this round last season while the Texans, Seahawks and Packers made their last appearances in 2016.

Best Bet Selections

We went 3-3 in last week’s Wild Card round and I’m coming back firing for the Divisional Playoffs. Saturday’s plays are listed right below and my Sunday picks can be viewed in the Fearless Predictions.

Minnesota Team Total Over (19 ½)
Minnesota-San Francisco Over (44 ½)
Tennessee Team Total Under (19 ½)

You can check all my total analysis thoughts for the Divisional Round on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Houston at Kansas City (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Of the four playoff totals listed this weekend, this number was the only one to get pushed up. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook sent out 50 and it sits at 51 as of Thursday evening. Unibet, a major sportsbook in NJ and PA, is also holding 51.

Based on the point-spread (Chiefs -9 ½), the oddsmakers are expecting a 30-20 outcome in this matchup and that number could seem high when we know the Texans defeated the Chiefs 31-24 at Arrowhead this season in Week 6. The ‘over’ cashed in that game and while the final outcome came close to the closing number (54 ½), the high side had a nice pace as the Texans led 23-17 at halftime. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 30-of-42 passes for 280 yards but was picked off twice. However, he ran for two touchdowns and rushed for 42 yards. In the 2017 regular season, Watson passed for five touchdowns against the Chiefs but Houston lost a 42-34 decision at home in a wild game that saw 40 points scored in the fourth quarter.

Despite the success against the Chiefs, Watson is 1-1 in two playoff starts and that includes last week’s 22-19 Wild Card win at Buffalo at home. Watson put up solid numbers (20-of-25, 247 yards passing, 55 rushing yards) in the win, but I keep reminding myself that he’s been held scoreless in the first-half of two postseason games at home. Now he's playing his road playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Good Luck!

For our purposes, the Texans saw the ‘under’ go 10-7 this season and the low side went 5-3 away from home. However, the defense surrendered 31.6 PPG in three road games versus playoff teams and the 41-7 blowout loss at Baltimore certainly pushed that number up. The unit stood firm in wins over Tennessee (24-21) and the win mentioned above over KC.

In Saturday’s “Total Talk” piece, I touched on Ravens head coach John Harbaugh off the ‘bye’ and while he’s been great, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is the master of NFL rest. He’s 18-3 in his career, most during his tenure with Philadelphia. At Kansas City, he's gone 5-2 and he's a combined 4-1 record with both teams in the Divisional Round. That includes a 31-13 home win by KC in the postseason over Indianapolis last year in this spot. The ‘under’ cashed in that game and the low side stands at 4-3 in seven playoff games under Reid in KC.

The boss of the Chiefs has only gone 2-5 in the playoffs since coming over from Philadelphia, where he went 10-9 with the Eagles. The one thing that stood out with the Chiefs is that they’ve only allowed 13 points in their two postseason wins under Reid and the ‘under’ connected in both games. Another reason to back the ‘under’ here is based on Kansas City’s defensive form. The unit allowed 11.5 points per game in its last six contests and that led to a 5-1 ‘under’ mark but five of those affairs came against non-playoff teams.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

Even though the Chiefs have been made healthy favorites, I believe this is the toughest side to handicap this weekend. I’m very hesitant to back Watson but I’m not sold on Reid in the playoffs either. I do like my total play though – Kansas City Team Total Over. While Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes can be erratic, he moves the chains better than anybody in the NFL and the offense ranked first in third down conversions. He’s shown good form in two playoff games, posting 31 in each contest. Also in two games when playing with rest, Mahomes and the Chiefs have posted 40 and 31 points. I believe KC will get at least five scores, possibly six in the revenge game. I’ll call it Kansas City 34 Houston 24 in what should be an entertaining game.


Seattle at Green Bay (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers sent out a strong total at 47 and Unibet (NJ & PA only) hasn’t nudged in either direction as of Thursday evening. Temperatures could get into the low 20s by kickoff at Lambeau Field on Sunday night but no strong winds or precipitation is expected.

Pun intended, Seattle has weathered everything and anything thrown at it on the road this season and it’s posted a league-best 8-1 record away from home. Last week’s 17-9 win at Philadelphia was an easy ‘under’ ticket and even though Eagles QB Carson Wentz was knocked out early, the defense did its part and that’s been a common theme. The unit has been lights out on the road, allowing 19.8 PPG and that effort led to a 5-4 ‘under’ record and it could’ve been more skewed to the low side but QB Russell Wilson and the offense scored 27 or more points in six of those games.

Wilson has been a real gamer on the road in his career, going 38-25-1. In the playoffs, he’s 4-5 away from Century Link Field and that includes a 1-1 record in the Super Bowl. While all those numbers are impressive, the future Hall of Famer hasn’t been able to win at Lambeau Field. In three trips, Seattle has gone 0-3 and the ‘Hawks were held to 17, 10 and 9 points.

To be fair to Wilson, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is just 1-3 in four career starts at Seattle and the one setback that sticks out was the 28-22 overtime loss to the Seahawks in the 2015 NFC Championship.

Circling back to this game, the Packers saw the ‘under’ go 7-1 in the second-half of the season and the defense only gave up 18.8 PPG but six of those games were against non-playoff teams. What’s more alarming for Green Bay is that the offense averaged 20.1 PPG during this span and the unit was held to 15.5 PPG in the two contests against postseason clubs.

Will the week off help Green Bay get back on track? Historically, the Packers are on a 5-1 ‘over’ run in the playoffs but they haven’t been in the postseason since 2016-17. Including last week’s outcome at the Eagles, Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 4-3 in its last seven road playoff games with Wilson at QB. The defense has looked sharp in three wins over this span, allowing 10.6 PPG. However, the unit has surrendered 30.3 PPG in their four losses.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

I said in last week’s piece that the winner of the Seahawks-Eagles will get lit up the following week and I’m sticking to that prediction. While Seattle’s scoring defense has been great on the road, we have to dissect the guys at QB that it’s faced – Rudolph, Murray, Mayfield, Schaub, Garropolo, Wentz, Goff, Allen. I believe Wentz is legit, when healthy and with weapons, two things he was without this season. I also like Jimmy G and Goff and they both lit up Seattle not once but twice this season. Rodgers, hasn’t looked sharp at times this season, but his teams have averaged 27.8 PPG in 10 career postseason wins and 35.6 PPG in the last three playoff victories. Green Bay Team Total (24 ½) is my strongest lean of the weekend and the Over (47) in the game will be locked up too. My projection calls for Green Bay 33 Seattle 22.

[Udog]

Saturday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Vikings at 49ers, 4:35 pm ET, NBC
Betting Odds: San Francisco -7, Total 44 ½

San Francisco (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2013, having finished atop the NFC with one of its best seasons over the past 35 years. This new version of the 49ers still has a lot to prove to garner further mention among the franchise’s top teams, much less the ones that reached three straight NFC championship games under Jim Harbaugh.

This is a new group that is tasting success for the first time. Jimmy Garoppolo, who struggled earlier in the season as he returned from an ACL tear, will be making his first postseason start. Santa Clara’s Levi’s Stadium will host the Niners’ entire run since they were able to edge the Saints in comeback fashion in New Orleans and then held off the Seahawks by an inch in Seattle. Mix in a dominant performance at home against Green Bay in Week 12 and the 49ers have definitely earned the right to remain at home for as long as they’re alive.

That didn’t do New Orleans much good against Minnesota (11-6, 10-7) last week in the biggest upset of Wild Card Weekend. The Vikings closed as a seven-point underdog and responded to blowing a late lead by breaking through with a touchdown to open overtime. The Vikes won 26-20 on Kyle Rudolph’s touchdown catch on third down and deserved to come out on top, controlling the game against the Saints with a strong performance from RB Dalvin Cook and his offensive line. A defensive backfield decimated by injuries held up against a Brees-led passing attack and Kirk Cousins put together a number of clutch throws to help deliver the upset.

The bye should certainly help the 49ers, who had multiple bumps and bruises they had to overcome throughout December, but don’t make too much of the Vikings coming in on a short week after winning last Sunday afternoon.

Although they do have a day less to prepare compared to the conventional week-to-week NFL grind, it’s not like Minnesota is being asked to turn around and play on a Thursday night. The Vikings won two of their three games without a full week’s preparation and covered all three times.

The 49ers opened as a -6.5/-7-point favorite, which is where the figure continues to hover at as kickoff approaches. It’s no secret that Minnesota will look to test its physicality against a team that has excelled at what Mike Zimmer terms “big-boy football,” getting lined up and blocking and attempting to establish the run. The Vikings finished sixth in the NFL in rushing, while San Francisco ended up as a middle-of-the-road run defense, coming in 17th.

A pass defense that was the best in all of football (169.2 ypg) ultimately allowed the 49ers to finish second in fewest total yardage surrendered, so you don’t have to wonder what Minnesota is hoping to establish. If they’re successful early in getting Cook going, they could effectively utilize play-action if Cousins can accurately throw downfield. Although his streak of losses in primetime games continued in 2019, he’s enjoyed an effective season and is 9-3 straight up in day games.

Cousins has props of 230.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns available at the Westgate Superbook. He’s expected to have his full complement of receivers available with Adam Thielen set to play through an ankle injury. Cook’s rushing yard number was set at 80.5, which is a little risky since the Vikings are likely to mix in rookie Alexander Mattison early in order to ensure Cook will be fresh enough for a final push.

Garoppolo attempted a pass back in the 2014 postseason while winning a Super Bowl as a rookie with the Patriots but will come into this contest looking for his first completion. The Westgate placed his props at 20.5 completions and 1.5 touchdown passes. He’s favored to throw an interception (-145). My free pick here would to ride the ‘under’ on Garoppolo completions. Although there’s danger in him finding George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Deebo Samuel on short routes, he’s only completed more than 20 passes in seven of his 16 outings and did so only twice over the last six weeks.

Minnesota’s pass defense finished 15th, but since the team’s strength lies in their pass rush, it’s likely that 49ers head coach Mike Shanahan employs the run often. Running it early to ensure Garoppolo can settle down makes a first-quarter ‘under’ attractive. Raheem Mostert has emerged as the primary back and figures to get plenty of work to try and neutralize a unit that finished fifth with 48 sacks and picked up 31 takeaways, ranking fourth in the NFL. A red-zone defense that ranked second in the NFL in keeping opponents out of the end zone could also present issues for the Niners. Mostert scored rushing touchdowns in six straight games and is -110 to do so again per the Westgate.

The Vikings come in with a depleted secondary after ruling safety Jayron Kearse out with knee and toe injuries. Corner Mackensie Alexander was unable to come back from a knee injury and had surgery on Thursday. Corner Mike Hughes was lost late in the season and veteran Xavier Rhodes has been picked on, so there could be opportunities if Garoppolo is sharp. San Francisco is much healthier, activating linebacker Kwon Alexander from a torn pectoral, the same injury that had sidelined Houston’s J.J. Watt. Alexander was the heart of the 49ers’ defense before going down. Pass rusher Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt are also back in the mix for an aggressive unit that excelled most of the season.

San Francisco is 4-1 in the playoffs against the Vikings, with every meeting coming in the divisional playoff round. None of that really matters, but it is worth knowing that the 49ers have only won one of the last five matchups against Minnesota over the past 12 years, last falling in Week 1 of 2018 by a 24-16 score. Garoppolo was intercepted three times despite throwing for 261 yards. Cousins threw for 244 yards and two scores in his first game as the Vikes’ quarterback. San Francisco won the lone meeting at Levi’s back in ’15, rolling 20-3.

The ‘over’ went 8-7-1 in 49ers games this season and went 8-8 in Minnesota’s games. For all “Total Talk” on Saturday’s Divisional playoff action, read Chris David’s piece click here.

Temperatures will be in the 50’s and wind gusts will be minimal in Santa Clara, so weather shouldn’t play a large role. For that reason, I also love the prop requiring both teams to knock down field goals of at least 33 yards to cash at +110 (Westgate) since both teams have accurate kickers and solid red-zone defenses.


Titans at Ravens, 8:15 pm ET, CBS
Betting Odds: Baltimore -10, Total 47

Baltimore (14-2 SU, 11-4-1 ATS) opens its run as Super Bowl favorite, currently 2-to-1 at Caesars, at home in what could be a rainy Saturday night. Upset-minded Tennessee (10-7, 10-7) arrives instead of the Texans, which also means Tom Brady and the Patriots won’t come knocking again.

The Ravens had their coming-out party in Week 9, dominating New England 37-20 after a well-timed bye. As November opened, the AFC still looked like the Patriots Invitational due to an elite defense and the presence of Brady. That game was not only an eye-opener, it sent the teams in completely different directions. Baltimore hasn’t lost since Sept. 29, going 9-2-1 against the spread during its 12-game win streak. Quarterback Lamar Jackson will be named NFL MVP.

The Titans defeated the Patriots in Foxborough last week, clamping down defensively and riding a ground game led by NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry to a 20-13 win that would’ve been a one-point squeaker if not for a Brady pick-six to close the game out. Tennessee has now won and covered six of eight, a stretch that actually includes a perfect mark over four road games. Tennessee’s run began with a home win over Kansas City and includes a Week 17 victory over a Houston team resting starters, so Mike Vrabel’s team will have plenty of confidence if it can survive to play for an AFC Championship on the road next Sunday.

Tennessee’s current Super Bowl odds at Caesars are 35-to-1 and it is currently the lone double-digit underdog playing this weekend unless Houston ends up in that role on Sunday. As of late Friday, the Chiefs were still a 9/9.5-point favorite for Sunday’s matchup with the Texans.

The number for this game opened with the Ravens laying 10 points but that was quickly bet down to nine points, even reaching 8.5 at Circa and FanDuel. Around Tuesday, the action started coming in on Baltimore, pushing the spread to 10 and potentially climbing.

Titans QB Ryan Tannehill won his postseason debut despite having never won at Gillette Stadium coming into this postseason. He’s now 8-3 as the team’s starter. Lamar Jackson will be looking to get on the board after falling his first time out, struggling to get anything going against the Chargers at home in an eventual 23-17 loss in the Wild Card round last year. The Ravens fell behind 12-0 and 23-3 before a pair of late scores. Jackson ran nine times for 54 yards and finished 14-for-29 for 194 yards and the two fourth-quarter TD passes.

He then went to work and became the NFL’s most prolific offensive weapon. Jackson set a league record for a quarterback with 1,206 rushing yards. He threw 36 touchdown passes while Baltimore set a league record with 3,296 rushing yards. After opening the season with a 59-10 rout of Miami, the Ravens barely slowed down. They’ve scored 28 or more points in eight of their last 10 contests and finished with a league-best 531 points (33.2 ppg). This total of 47 is consistent with where oddsmakers have kept Ravens games all season, placing them within three of that number in 12 of their 16 contests. The ‘over’ is 9-7 in Baltimore games.

Jackson has props of 17.5 completions and two passing touchdowns available at the Westgate Superbook. The number set on his rushing prop is 74.5 yards, which is a figure he’s eclipsed in five of his past six games. Despite that, he’s got just one rushing TD over the last six contests. Keep that in mind if you’re enticed by banking on ‘yes’ at a return of +115 (-135 for ‘no’).

By comparison, Henry’s odds of reaching the end zone have been at set at -150, which is still a nice bet considering the Titans are unlikely to get shut out and he’s scored in seven of the last eight games he’s played in. He’s got 13 touchdowns since the beginning of November and looks healthy after taking Week 16 off to rest an ailing hamstring. Henry’s rushing total has been set at 95.5, a figure he’s topped in six of seven after racking up 182 yards at New England last Saturday night. He closed the regular season with 211 yards on 32 carries at Houston. The Ravens finished with the league’s fifth-best run defense, which will definitely make things interesting.

Baltimore’s pass defense finished sixth, while the Titans finished 24th stifling teams through the air. If inclement weather is part of the action, it may not be as easy for Jackson to dissect Tennessee. The 238 yards he passed for against the Browns in Week 17 were his highest output since late September. Tight end Mark Andrews has emerged as his favorite target and should play despite likely being at less than 100 percent with an ankle injury. He’s caught seven of Jackson’s 24 touchdown passes over the past seven weeks and is even money to score on Saturday (‘no’ -120)

Preparing for Jackson is an impossible task, but the Titans have been working against the elusive former No. 2 overall pick Marcus, Mariota to try and replicate what they’re about to face. Tannehill finished 8-for-15 for just 72 yards against the Patriots, so his passing yards number (225.5) is suspiciously high. If you’re of the belief that Baltimore will go up early and the Titans will have to abandon their plans to feed Henry and consume clock, be sure to check and see just how hard the rain is falling as kickoff approaches and get a more accurate forecast for potential in-game showers.

AP notes worth knowing include the Ravens coming in 72-24 at home under Harbaugh throughout his tenure, allowing only 16.8 points per game. Baltimore 14-1 in home primetime games, while Jackson threw 11 TDs with no picks in his three evening games this season.

Mark Ingram (calf) is listed as questionable to play, but the Ravens’ top running back returned to practice on Thursday and is expected to suit up and play. Gus Edwards would be in for an increased workload if Ingram can’t get loose or is ineffective. The Ravens are otherwise healthy and should see Ingram and Edwards gut it out through their usual roles. Tennessee has ruled out linebacker Jayon Brown, who hurt his shoulder against the Patriots. Backup WR Adam Humphries is also sidelined. Corner Adoree Jackson and LB Kamalei Correa will play.

[Udog]

NFL playoffs divisional round betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Wideout Will Fuller missed Houston's overtime win against Buffalo on Wild Card Weekend. He's questionable to take the field for Sunday's divisional-round playoff game at Kansas City.

The NFL playoffs move on to the divisional round, considered by many to be the best weekend of the season. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

HOUSTON TEXANS: Wide receiver Will Fuller missed last week’s wild-card victory over Buffalo, and he’s questionable and said to be a game-time decision Sunday at Kansas City. “Houston’s offense really didn’t look great without Fuller, so I would imagine if he doesn’t play, that would affect the line a little bit,” Osterman said. “It’s possibly enough to move Kansas City from -9.5 to -10, if we keep seeing the Chiefs money we’ve been getting.” The SuperBook opened the Texans +7.5.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Star tight end Travis Kelce (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s home tilt against Houston. “If he doesn’t play, then I could see the line coming down a half-point, but that would really depend on if we keep getting Chiefs money.” Indeed, The SuperBook opened Kansas City -7.5 last Saturday night and jumped to -9.5 by Sunday morning.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Running back Mark Ingram (calf) and tight end Mark Andrews (ankle), both Pro Bowl selections, are listed as questionable for Saturday night’s game against visiting Tennessee. But that would appear to be a formality. “It’s been announced that Ingram is playing, and we expect Andrews to play, as well. They’ve basically had three weeks off. No move in the line, because they were expected to play.” Baltimore has stuck at -9.5 since Tuesday.

TENNESSEE TITANS: Wideout Adam Humphries (ankle) is out, as is linebacker Jayon Brown (shoulder). But Osterman said those absences didn’t impact the line at all. The Titans are catching 9.5 at Baltimore in this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday clash.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Wideout Adam Thielen (ankle) is questionable for Saturday’s game at San Francisco. “Thielen is expected to play. He would be worth a half-point if he somehow did not play.” The Vikings are 7-point underdogs.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Defensive end Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) missed the last three games and is questionable Saturday against Minnesota. However, Osterman said that didn’t impact the number at all. The Niners are laying 7 points at home.

Weather Watch

HOUSTON AT KANSAS CITY: The Kansas City area could see 3-5 inches of snow Saturday, but Sunday brings with it temperatures in the upper 30s and just a 20 percent chance of precipitation. As such, the total actually rose for this 3:05 p.m. ET start, opening at 50, ticking down to 49, then rising to 51.5 by Friday.

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY: The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field expected to see snow Friday night and perhaps Saturday. However, by the 6:40 p.m. ET Sunday kick, it’s just expected to be cold, with temperatures in the low 20s. “The weather won’t be much of a factor at all in these games, unless the wind gets strong, which isn’t expected.” The total opened at 47, dipped to 45.5 and got back to 47 early in the week, then ticked to 46.5 Friday morning.

MINNESOTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: There’s a 20 percent chance of rain Saturday, but Osterman said weather hasn’t impacted the total in this 4:35 p.m. ET contest. The SuperBook opened the total at 45.5 and dropped to 44.5.

Pros vs. Joes

MINNESOTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: “We’re seeing some pro money on Minnesota and some public money on San Fran,” Osterman said. “But there’s also public play on Minnesota moneyline.” The 49ers are 7-point favorites on the spread and -310 on the moneyline, while the Vikes are +260 on the moneyline.

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY: “The public is on Seattle, and we’ve had some sharp money come in on Green Bay.” As such, this number has trended toward the Packers, opening -3.5 and reaching -4.5 Wednesday.

Reverse Line Moves

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY: As noted above, the Pros vs. Joes wagering on this contest is creating a reverse line move. “We are seeing more money on Seattle, but the line is moving in Green Bay’s favor.”

[Udog]

Sunday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Texans at Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST – CBS
Betting Odds: Kansas City -9 ½, Total 51

The only rematch from the regular season in this weekend’s divisional playoff round takes place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Houston (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) was on its way to an early postseason exit as the AFC South champions dug themselves a 16-0 hole in last Saturday’s Wild Card matchup with Buffalo. However, the Texans did not repeat last season’s Wild Card performance in a 21-7 setback to the Colts as Houston rallied past Buffalo in overtime, 22-19 to cash as 2 ½-point favorites.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson led the comeback with a touchdown run late in the third quarter, followed by a two-point conversion to cut the deficit to 16-8. Following a field goal early in the fourth quarter, the Texans grabbed their first lead of the afternoon on a Watson touchdown pass to Carlos Hyde for a 19-16 advantage. The Bills tied the game in the final seconds with a 47-yard field goal, but the Texans escaped on a short field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn in overtime to grab the narrow cover.

The Chiefs (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) wrapped up their fourth consecutive AFC West title, but have only one AFC Championship to show for it. Kansas City dropped a heartbreaker to New England in overtime last January, 37-31, preventing the Chiefs from making their first Super Bowl since the 1969 season, when they won the franchise’s only championship.

Kansas City posted a perfect September by winning all four games, including three victories away from Arrowhead Stadium. The most notable triumph came in Week 3 against Baltimore, 33-28, handing the Ravens one of their two defeats on the season. However, the Chiefs lost three of their next four games, including home setbacks to the Colts, Texans, and Packers in October. The biggest loss suffered was 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes, who sustained a dislocated kneecap in a Week 7 rout of Denver.

Mahomes miraculously missed only two games, as Kansas City split a pair of home contests against Green Bay and Minnesota. In Mahomes’ return at Tennessee in Week 10, the All-Pro quarterback threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns, but the Chiefs squandered a nine-point fourth quarter lead in a 35-32 defeat. That would be the last loss suffered in the regular season by Kansas City as Andy Reid’s club finished the campaign with six consecutive victories to lock up the second seed in the AFC playoffs.

Circling back to the Week 6 matchup at Arrowhead, the Texans fell into a 17-3 hole against the Chiefs, but Houston stormed back by outscoring Kansas City, 20-0 in the second quarter to grab a 23-17 halftime edge. Only 15 more points were scored in the final two quarters to barely eclipse the total of 54 ½, but Houston picked up the 31-24 victory thanks to a one-yard touchdown scramble by Watson with 6:17 remaining in regulation. The Texans cashed as short 3 ½-point underdogs, while outrushing the Chiefs, 192-53 and owning nearly a 2-to-1 time of possession advantage.

Playing at home in the playoffs hasn’t been kind to the Chiefs since 1995 as Kansas City is 1-7 in its last eight postseason contests at Arrowhead. Granted, the lone victory came against Indianapolis in the divisional playoffs last season to end that long hex, but it is still a sore spot for Chiefs’ fans as the franchise is 2-5 in the postseason since Reid took over as head coach in 2012.

Since this is the lone rematch out of the four divisional affairs, teams seeking revenge have not fared well the second time around. Dating back to 2015, teams that lost the regular season meeting and hooked up in the second round of the playoffs posted a 3-7 SU and 5-4-1 ATS record. Favorites own a 1-2-1 ATS mark in this stretch with the lone chalk team to win and cover being the Falcons in 2016, who avenged a three-point loss at Seattle to cruise past the Seahawks at home in the playoffs, 36-20 as 6 ½-point favorites.


Seahawks at Packers – 6:40 PM EST – FOX
Betting Odds: Green Bay -4 ½, Total 47

The final team to take the field for the first time in the postseason is Green Bay (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS), who are back in the playoffs following a two-year absence. The last time the Packers grabbed the NFC North crown came back in 2016, as Green Bay reached the conference championship before getting rolled by Atlanta. Now, the Packers are back atop the division as Matt LaFleur was the only first-year head coach out of seven to finish with a winning record in 2019.

Green Bay lost only once at Lambeau Field this season by posting a 7-1 mark with the lone blemish coming against Philadelphia in a Thursday night defeat, 34-27 in Week 4. The Packers were blown out in a pair of road routs against the Chargers and 49ers, but Green Bay swept the six games from the NFC North, including a pair of wins over Minnesota. The defense limited eight opponents to 16 points or less, while compiling a solid 7-3 ATS mark as a single-digit favorite.

The Seahawks (12-5 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) continued their domination of the highway by improving to 8-1 away from CenturyLink Field in a 17-9 triumph at Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. Seattle moved to 10-1 since 2005 in its first game of the postseason, while picking up its first road playoff victory since 2015 at Minnesota.

The Eagles lost quarterback Carson Wentz in the first quarter to a head injury, as Philadelphia’s offense didn’t reach the end zone with backup Josh McCown by getting held to three field goals. Seahawks’ running back Marshawn Lynch scored a touchdown for the second straight game after returning to Seattle prior to Week 17 to give them a 10-3 halftime lead. Quarterback Russell Wilson hooked up with rookie wide receiver D.K. Metcalf on a 53-yard touchdown connection to put the Seahawks in control, 17-6 as Seattle owns a perfect 6-0 record in the Eastern Time Zone.

Seattle and Green Bay didn’t meet this season, but this has been a series dominated by the home team. In the last eight matchups since 2009, the home squad is a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, which includes a 27-24 victory by Seattle at CenturyLink Field in 2018.

However, Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never won at Lambeau Field in three tries by losing in three straight seasons from 2015 through 2017. The offense didn’t produce much by scoring 17, 10, and 9 points in those defeats. The most recent playoff hookup came in January 2015 in Seattle when the Seahawks rallied from a 16-0 deficit to shock the Packers in overtime, 28-22 on a Wilson 35-yard touchdown strike to Jermaine Kearse.

Under Carroll, the Seahawks have never won a divisional round game after grabbing a victory in the Wild Card round. In 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2016, Seattle fell in the second round on the road, with three losses coming by a touchdown or more. In the two seasons that the Seahawks reached the Super Bowl in 2013 and 2014, they played both games at home each time and have never made a Super Bowl while winning at least one road game.

[Udog]

Championship Notes

AFC Championship

Tennessee at Kansas City

Saturday, Jan. 11 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Tennessee: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Kansas City: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 6-1 O/U

Opening Odds

After the Chiefs rallied past the Texans in the AFC divisional round, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 ½-point home favorite with a total of 52.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 10 of the 2018 regular season and Tennessee shocked Kansas City, 35-32 as a five-point home underdog. Kansas City built a 10-0 advantage and led 29-20 in the fourth quarter before Tennessee came back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns, capped off by a Ryan Tannehill touchdown strike to Adam Humphries in the final minute. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdown passes, while Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

Kansas City struggled against the AFC South in the regular season by losing three of four contests, but rebounded with the blowout win over Houston in the divisional round. Tennessee posted a 3-1 record against AFC West foes this season by beating Kansas City, Oakland, and Los Angeles, while getting shut out at Denver.

Playoff Notes

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel improved to 2-0 in the postseason in his short coaching career with wins at New England and Baltimore. The defense has allowed a total of 25 points in the two playoff wins, as Tennessee dominated top-seeded Baltimore, 28-12 to advance to the franchise's first AFC championship since 2002.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid owns a 13-14 career record in the playoffs, while the Chiefs have gone 2-3 under Reid in the playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium. The first win came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.

The Chiefs met the Titans in the 2017 Wild Card round and led Tennessee, 21-3 at halftime. However, the Titans rallied by outscoring the Chiefs, 19-0 in the second half to stun Kansas City, 22-21 as 8 ½-point road underdogs. Kansas City is playing in its second consecutive AFC championship game after falling short against New England in overtime last season.

It's been a long time for Kansas City in the Super Bowl as the franchise last made it in 1969 when the Chiefs dominated the Vikings in Super Bowl IV. Tennessee last played in a Super Bowl in 1999 as the Titans lost to the Rams, 23-16.

Total Notes

Tennessee has seen its total results produce a stalemate (5-5) on the road this season and the defense (12.5 PPG) has really stepped up in the playoffs. Since Tannehill took over at QB for the Titans, the club has scored 20-plus points in all six of their road games with him under center and that’s produced a 4-2 ‘over’ mark.

Kansas City has watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Arrowhead Stadium this season, which the easy high side (50 ½) ticket in the Divisional Playoffs. Including the game versus Houston, the Chiefs have hosted five playoff teams and the ‘over’ is 5-0 in those games and the defense (28.9 PPG) hasn’t been sharp.

The Chiefs have seen balanced total results (5-5) with Reid in the playoffs. Vrabel has seen the ‘under’ connect in two playoff games as coach. In the Week 10 matchup from Nashville, the pair combined for 67 points and the ‘over’ (49) rather easily but it was also helped with 41 points in the second-half.

Prior to this game, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series dating back to 2014 and that includes the 2018 Wild Card matchup. In the Titans’ 22-21 upset over the Chiefs, the total closed at 44 ½.

AFC Championship Trends

Since 1970, home teams have posted a 34-15 record in the AFC Championship.
In the last 10 years, hosts have gone 8-2 (80%) in the AFC Championship. During this span, bettors have seen their fair share of close calls and blowouts as five games were decided by double digits and the other five by six points or less.
In the first 49 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 35-14 SU and 28-20-1 ATS.
Favorites and Underdogs have gone 5-5 ATS in the last 10 AFC title games.
Since the 1986-87 AFC Championship game, the 'under' has gone 17-16 in the title game. Over the last eight seasons, the 'under' is on a 6-2 run in this conference title game.
Kansas City has made two appearances in the AFC title game, going 0-2 both SU and ATS.
Tennessee has gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in the AFC Championship, both of those contests took place on the road.


NFC Championship

Green Bay at San Francisco

Sunday, Jan. 12 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Packers Road Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U
49ers Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Green Bay: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U

Opening Odds

Both San Francisco and Green Bay won at home in the divisional round as the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the 49ers as a 7 ½-point home favorite with a total of 45.

Head-to-Head

The 49ers rolled the Packers in a Sunday night affair in Week 12 as three-point favorites, 37-8. San Francisco built a 23-0 halftime lead as Green Bay's lone touchdown came in the third quarter on an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass. Rodgers was limited to 104 yards passing, while 49ers' quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, including a 61-yard scoring strike to tight end George Kittle.

That loss was that last one for Green Bay, who has won six straight games, including the blowout of Seattle in the divisional round. Since 2012, the 49ers have captured five of seven meetings with the Packers, while Green Bay has lost in three of its past four visits to the Bay Area.

The Packers are 1-4 in their last five games against NFC West opponents since 2018, while the 49ers are 2-3 since the start of last season against NFC North foes.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay won its first playoff game since 2016 in a divisional round victory over Seattle at Lambeau Field. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur improved to 1-0 in the playoffs after winning his playoff debut, while Rodgers owns a 10-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter. However, the Packers have lost their last two NFC championship games, each on the road at Seattle (2014) and Atlanta (2016). The last time Green Bay won an NFC title game on the road came in 2010 at Chicago, which also marked their most recent trip to the Super Bowl, which they won against Pittsburgh.

San Francisco dominated Minnesota in its first playoff game since the 2013-14 season in a 27-10 blowout in the divisional round. The 49ers are playing in their first NFC championship since 2013, when they lost at Seattle. San Francisco is hosting its first conference title game since 2011 when the Niners were tripped up by the Giants in overtime, 20-17.

The Packers and 49ers met in the playoffs in four consecutive seasons from 1995-1998 as Green Bay won three of four times. In 2012 and 2013, San Francisco knocked out Green Bay twice, including at home in the divisional playoffs, 45-31 in 2012. The only time these teams have hooked up in the NFC Championship came in 1997 at Candlestick Park as the Packers won, 23-10.

Total Notes

In the Week 12 meeting between the pair, the Packers were held to a season-low eight points and the the 'under' (48) was never in doubt despite San Francisco scoring 37 points. Green Bay also laid an egg in its other trip to California this season, losing 26-11 at the L.A. Chargers in Week 9.

Green Bay’s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ‘over’ started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ‘under’ produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. Sunday's 28-23 win over Seattle watched the 'over' (45) connect.

Including the result versus the Seahawks, the Packers have watched the 'over' go 6-1 in their last seven playoff games and five of them have taken place on the road.

The Niners' 27-10 win over the Vikings in the Divisional Round watched the 'under' (44 ½) connect easily. Including that result, San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ cash in its last four playoff games.

Prior to the Minnesota outcome, San Francisco watched the ‘over’ go 7-2-1 down the stretch before starting the season with a 5-1 ‘under’ mark.

NFC Championship Trends

Since the NFC Championship began in 1970, home teams have posted a 32-17 record in the title game.
In the last 10 years, visitors have shown more fight in this title game as the home team was only able to produce a 6-4 record in the NFC Championship. Those last four wins by the road teams weren't easy as the victories came by seven points or less and three were decided by exactly three points.
Favorites have gone 32-17 SU and 26-22-1 ATS in the NFC Championship.
Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 18-14 in the title game. Over the last five seasons, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in this conference title game.
San Francisco has been in the NFC title game 15 times, going 6-9 overall. Surprisingly, the club has gone 4-5 at home but this will be the first NFC Championship played at Levi's Stadium. Its last trip to the NFC Championship came in the 2013-14 season and they lost to Seattle 23-17 on the road.

[Udog]

NFC & AFC Betting Angles
Marc Lawrence

And then there were four.

NFL’s version of the ‘Final Four’ kicks off this Sunday in the Championship Games where surprises have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 19 of 41 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being both the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots last year. More important, 12 of the 19 underdog winners went on to win the Super Bowl, going 12-7 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in the big game.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the Championship Games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

What A Rush

Running the football is tantamount to success in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. See the Tennessee Titans this postseason.

It’s no coincidence teams who have managed to rush the ball for 100 or more yards in conference championship games are 29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS.

And when they manage to crack the 100-yard barrier on the ground against foes coming off a satisfying double-digit win, they zoom to 20-5 ATS in these games.

The Kansas City Chiefs allow more than 129 rushing yards per game at home this season.

Situationally Speaking

The oddsmakers have done a nice job overall balancing the books during this round, with favorites checking in at 31-28-1 ATS, and home teams 30-29-1 ATS.

Meanwhile, underdogs of 8 or more points are 12-6 ATS.

That could be music to the ears of Tennessee backers.

Gravity Alert

While high-scoring games tend to be the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high-scoring effort in their last game have a tendency to come back to earth harder than a skydiver with a faulty chute.

Consider: only 11 of the 19 teams that scored 40 or more points in their Divisional Round victory have managed to win in this round, while going 6-12-1 ATS as well.

Worse, if these same teams are at home they are just 3-9 ATS.

That puts Kansas City on hard ground this Sunday.

Over There

Points aplenty in this league of late have forced the odds makers to raise the Over/Under totals bar.

Its what happens when there have been 34 OVERS and 23 UNDERS with 2 pushes in Championship Games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total the more OVERS there have been as games with a posted total set at 49 or more points going 7-3-1 OVER.

Stat Of The Week

The Green Bay Packers are 9-1 in one-possession games this season. They were 2-6-1 in one-possession games last season.

[Udog]

311GREEN BAY -312 SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

313TENNESSEE -314 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season in the current season.




NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

Tennessee @ Kansas City

Game 313-314
January 19, 2020 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
144.561
Kansas City
144.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+7 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Game 311-312
January 19, 2020 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
136.406
San Francisco
139.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+7); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Saturday, January 19

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GREEN BAY (14 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 3) - 1/19/2020, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 199-145 ATS (+39.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-49 ATS (+22.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (11 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (13 - 4) - 1/19/2020, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Conference Championships

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Trend Report
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Sunday, January 19

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 7-13-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing San Francisco


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[Udog]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Championship Sunday odds: Punch your ticket on the Titans' train now
Jason Logan

This Sunday will be the Titans’ fourth straight road game going back to Week 17 but with the way they’re playing on both sides of the ball, that tough sked may not matter to NFL bettors.

One of the four remaining NFL playoff teams will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Miami, but that’s still a few weeks away. Football bettors are more concerned with this Sunday’s conference championship games and where the odds will end up by kickoff.

Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the spreads and totals for the NFC and AFC Championship Games, monitors the line adjustments and market trends, and helps get you ahead to the moves with his best bets to make now and which ones you should make later.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: TENNESSEE TITANS (+7.5) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Titans are making believers out of bettors, who snatched up the opening odds in Las Vegas which had Tennessee as big as +9.5 in Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game. Most books opened this matchup at Chiefs -7.5 (after watching that early action at select sportsbooks) but that number could get walked down to a clean touchdown sooner rather than later.

The vig on Kansas City -7.5 has been discounted as books try to entice some handle on the home side. The Chiefs’ thrilling comeback was something to behold, digging themselves out of a 24-0 hole versus the Texans in the Divisional Round, but they did have to fall into that hole to begin with.

This will be the Titans’ fourth straight road game going back to Week 17 but with the way they’re playing on both sides of the ball, that tough sked may not matter to NFL bettors. If you’re taking the Tennessee train to the book this weekend, grab the Titans and the hook now just to be careful.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7)

According to the early reports, bookies are expecting even action on the NFC title game. The spread has mostly stayed at a touchdown with some brief drops to San Francisco -6.5 before buyback on the chalk returned it to seven.

Both teams are well backed at the book, so this line should stay steady heading toward kickoff Sunday night. With the 49ers getting roped into parlays and teasers and Cheeseheads going all in on the Packers’ moneyline, those pots should continue to balance the overall handle for this game.

If you do like the Niners, there are some spots rolling back the price on San Francisco -7 and that discount in vig could indicate a line move to -6.5. Plug this sucker into your Covers Live App, be patient, and shop around when the alert hits your phone.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 51.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs spotted Houston a 24-point head start and still covered as double-digit faves in the AFC Divisional Round. That offensive showcase – scoring 51 points in 45 minutes or 1.13 points per minute (yikes) – is fueling the early move up for this total, which has climbed from 51 to as high as 52 points at some markets.

The Titans defense has been the backbone of Tennessee’s postseason run, locking down the Patriots for 13 points then absolutely draining the energy from the top scoring attack in the NFL, holding Baltimore to 12 points in the Divisional Round. But this Titans offensive attack can put up points of its own – as bettors saw in the second half of the regular season – and just scored 28 against a very good Baltimore stop unit.

The Chiefs are 6-3 Over/Under inside Arrowhead Stadium this season, allowing about four points more per home game than on the road. The weather in Missouri will cool down by the weekend but the extended forecast for Sunday is calling for clear skies and little to no wind as of Monday morning. If you’re thinking about betting the Over for the AFC Championship Game, you will want to get it quickly before we see all books serving 52 points or higher.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 45 GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Over/Under for the NFC Championship Game opened at 45 and has remained still in the 12 hours since posting. There has been slight tinkering with the juice at select sportsbooks but nothing big that would indicate a knee-jerk move up or down.

The 49ers defense looked reborn in the Divisional Round with key bodies returning at all levels. San Francisco was limiting opponents to less than 15 points per game in the first 13 weeks of the season but watched that stop unit come apart due to injuries in the final four weeks of the schedule. The Packers defense also looked good in the Divisional Round, getting some crucial stops and sacking Seattle QB Russell Wilson five times.

Looking at past conference championship games, there has been a market trend toward the Under. In the last three NFL postseasons, the totals for the AFC/NFC title game has ticked downward by a couple points off the opener in four of those six matchups. That said, the Over is 4-2 in those championship contests. If you’re on the fence about the total, see if Under money shows up again (and it might with an Over/Under count of 2-6 this postseason) and then make the call.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


LOOKING AHEAD

The Super Bowl may be more than two weeks away but there's no reason why we can’t put down some bets on future Super Bowl MVPs.

The best long shot we see is a running back who took the majority of his team’s snaps last week - a team that's favored by more than a touchdown at home this week. Tevin Coleman out-touched Raheem Mostert 22 to 12 and ran for 102 yards and two touchdowns versus a Top-10 defense in the Divisional Round. This week, he gets Green Bay’s No. 23 DVOA rush defense and could be facing the Kansas City Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense on Super Sunday.

A running back hasn’t won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis did it in 1998 and since that time 13 quarterbacks, four wide receivers, three linebackers and a safety have won the award. But with Coleman sporting +8,000 odds to win the MVP, we're taking a stab as the other three top running backs still in the playoffs are +1,200, +2,500 and +3,300, giving Coleman great value.


KING OF THE HILL

Tennessee and Kansas City battled in Week 10 this year with the Titans getting the victory, 35-32. It was the first game that Patrick Mahomes played after his knee injury and the Kansas City QB set season highs in attempts (50), completions (36) and yards (446). Tyreek Hill also set season highs in receptions (11) and yards (157) and will square off again against the Titans’ secondary that allowed 88.4 yards to teams’ No. 1 receivers this year, which was the second-highest amount in the league.

With Travis Kelce going off for 10-134-3 last week, we expect the tight end to receive a lot of attention. If Hill sees single coverage, he could top his yardage totals in as little as two plays. Hill has not topped 75 yards since Week 10 versus the Titans, which is why we're getting a reasonable total of 75.5 receiving yards. He wasn’t that far off, though, hitting 60-plus yards in four of his last games — those extra dozen yards are just one missed tackle for the 4.25 speedster.

We aren’t expecting a repeat of Week 10, but with Kelce stuffing the stat sheet last week we like the chances of Hill getting loose on Sunday. Take the Over 75.5 receiving yards on Hill’s total.


CAMPING WITH COLEMAN

Remember when we tooted the horn of Tevin Coleman? Good, because there's more Coleman value to be had this weekend. Coleman saw 46 percent of the backfield snaps last week with Raheem Mostert getting 34 percent and No. 3 Matt Breida getting a handful of late touches and absorbing 17 percent.

The 49ers ran 68 offensive plays versus the Vikings and ran the ball 47 times and there's no reason for them to deviate from a successful game plan if they get an early lead again.

Coleman averaged 4.1 yards per carry this year, but that number jumped north of five over the last four weeks of the season — in limited usage. The Packers allowed 4.7 yards per carry (24th) on the year and 5.2 yards per carry in Weeks 15-17 (28th). Last week, the Packers didn’t face much of a running threat in Seattle, but they did allow the 49ers to run for 112 yards on 5.1 ypc back in Week 9. We're grabbing the Over on Coleman’s rushing total of 42.5 yards.


TANNEHILL TURNOVER

Even without their best pass-rusher in Chris Jones, the Kansas City Chiefs still managed five sacks on a mobile QB last week. Jones is still questionable against a Tennessee offensive line that has had its QB sacked just once in its last three games. However, if K.C. can get up early — easier said than done — and force Ryan Tannehill to pass, it will greatly increase its chances of creating pressure.

In games that Tannehill has passed more than 23 times (six games), the QB has thrown five interceptions. Although Deshaun Watson never threw an interception in his 52 passes last week, there were plenty of opportunities for the Chiefs - spots that they can capitalize on this Sunday.

We are taking the Over on Tannehill’s Over 0.5 interceptions as Kansas City has averaged 0.9 interceptions at home this year.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Championships
Chris David

Divisional Playoff Weekend Recap

After watching the ‘under’ go 4-0 in the Wild Card Weekend, the low side trend continued in the Divisional Playoffs on Saturday with another pair of winning tickets. The ‘over’ tickets finally showed up on Sunday and bettors pressing their bets with first and second-half wagers may’ve been able to recoup their losses from the previous six outcomes as they cashed easily. Through eight games, the ‘under’ sits at 6-2 in this year’s postseason.

Playoff Betting Results

Conference Championship History

Prior to last year’s 37-31 overtime shootout at Arrowhead between the Patriots and Chiefs, the ‘under’ was on a 6-1 run in this title game. Meanwhile, the NFC has been the exact opposite with the ‘over’ go 4-1 in the last five title games and even though last year’s result between the Rams and Saints went ‘under’ the number, the pair still combined for 49 points. That particular game was the fourth NFC Championship to see overtime in the last 10 years and we’ve seen even total results (2-2) in those tilts despite the extra session.

Championship Total History (2009-2019)

Year AFC (UNDER 6-4) NFC (OVER 6-4)
2018-2019 New England 37 at Kansas City 31 (OT) - OV 56.5 Los Angeles 26 New Orleans 23 (OT) - UN 55
2017-2018 New England 24 vs. Jacksonville 20 - UN 46 Philadelphia 38 vs. Minnesota 7 - OV 39
2016-2017 New England 36 vs. Pittsburgh 17 - OV 49.5 Atlanta 44 vs. Green Bay 21 - OV 61
2015-2016 Denver 20 vs. New England 18 - UN 45 Carolina 49 vs. Arizona 15 - OV 47.5
2014-2015 New England 45 vs. Indianapolis 7 - UN 52.5 Seattle 28 vs. Green Bay 22 (OT) - OV 47
2013-2014 Denver 26 vs. New England 16 UN 57 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 - UN 40.5
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 - UN 49.5 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 - OV 48
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 - UN 49 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 (OT) - UN 42
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 - OV 38 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 - UN 42
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 - OV 40 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 (OT) - OV 54

The Kansas City Chiefs have watched the ‘over/under’ go 1-1 in their two appearances in the AFC Championship while the Titans have watched the ‘over’ connect in their two visits to the conference title game. Make a note that Tennessee played both games on the road and they averaged 28.5 points per game while going 1-1.

Green Bay has played in the NFC Championship seven times and the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 in those contests. San Francisco has made more title appearances than any other NFL team, 15 in total. The club has gone 6-9 and the ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the 10 games listed with a total.

Best Bet Selections

For the second consecutive weekend, I fired six plays and ended up breaking even at 3-3. It didn’t look good early with a 0-3 mark on Saturday but the ‘over’ winners on Sunday got us to 6-6 through 12 picks of the playoffs. As always, you can hear all the analysis for the AFC and NFC Championship on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Tennessee at Kansas City (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers at DraftKings (**NJ & PA Only) opened this matchup at 51 ½ and the number has been pushed up to 52 ½ as of Thursday. A few Las Vegas betting shops are holding 53 despite low temperatures in the twenties expected at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday. Tennessee (10-8) and Kansas City (9-8) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and based on their offensive performances in the Divisional Playoff round, you can see why the number quickly moved up.

Even though points are expected by the oddsmakers, the old boxing adage ‘styles make fights’ certainly fits this year’s AFC Championship matchup and your total wager will likely be correlated to your side wager.

We’ve seen the Titans knock off three straight division winners on the road and they did it with their defense, holding the Texans, Patriots and Ravens to 14 points or less. To be fair, Houston laid down in Week 17 and New England wasn’t an offensive power this season by its standards but holding the Ravens to just three scores (2 FGs, 1 TD) on the road was eye-opening. If Tennessee completes this run, it would be unprecedented and the finale is easily the toughest test.

Kansas City is coming off a 51-31 win over Houston last Sunday in the Divisional Playoff round at home and the offense was unstoppable after the first quarter as quarterback Patrick Mahomes tossed five touchdowns. Mahomes improved to 2-1 in his young career in the playoffs and the Chiefs haven’t been held to less 31 points in any of those games.

This contest is a rematch from Week 10 of this year's regular season and Kansas City will be looking to avenge a 35-32 loss to the Titans at Nashville. Mahomes was on fire in that game too, throwing for 433 yards and three touchdowns but key penalties and special teams mistakes cost the Chiefs. They put up seven scores that day at Nissan Stadium, settling for four field goals and they missed two attempts as well. If Kansas City connected like it did in the final 45 minutes last Sunday, it probably would’ve posted 50-plus on Tennessee as well. The Titans only put up 371 yards of offense against the Chiefs in their win and seven of the 35 points came from the Tennessee defense, a fumble return touchdown.

Touchdowns have been a common theme for Tennessee and it’s a large reason why it’s been a great ‘over’ team since QB Ryan Tannehill became the starter in Week 7. The Titans have only made eight field goals all season, which is absolutely crazy. In their last eight games, Tennessee has seen the endzone 40 times and it’s only kicked one field goal and none in the playoffs. Crazy, righ!? You don’t have to be a genius to know that putting sixes on the board instead of threes are huge for ‘over’ tickets and the high side has gone 9-3 with Tannehill at QB. In the playoffs, the defense has helped the ‘under’ go 2-0 despite the team averaging 24 points per game.

Fearless Predictions - Over/Under Picks

What’s impressive about the offensive numbers for the Titans is that they’re doing it with a ground attack behind running back Derrick Henry. Knowing Tannehill has only completed 15 passes in two playoffs games is another stat that seems unbelievable. I thought Tennessee would run out of gas last week but I was proved wrong and so were many other bettors. So why fade now? Well, the offense has been on fire but what happens when it doesn't click? The Titans scored 28 last Saturday but 14 of those points came on two big plays and the other pair of touchdowns were set up with short tracks (35 yards, 20 yards) from Baltimore turnovers. We're all well aware that the KC offense showed us how dangerous it could be last week but during the regular season, it averaged 24.3 PPG after scoring 30-plus points in its previous game. Tennessee has only seen one total close in the fifties this season, an inflated Week 10 number versus Houston, and the ‘under’ cashed. Even though Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has Mahomes, let's not forget that we've seen him tighten up in the postseason before and I could totally see him bleeding the clock early and often. My leans for this game are Tennessee Team Total Under (21 ½) and the Under (53) for the game as well. I’ll call it Kansas City 26 Tennessee 15.


Green Bay at San Francisco (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers sent out a solid opening total of 45 on the NFC Championship and the number has held steady as of Thursday at DraftKings (**NJ & PA Only) and other major books in the US.

San Francisco has produced great back-and-forth total results (8-8-1) all season and that includes the ‘under’ (44 ½) ticket in last Saturday’s 27-10 home win over Minnesota in the Divisional Playoffs. Green Bay watched the ‘over’ (45 ½) cash last Sunday evening as it held off Seattle 28-23 at home and that result snapped a 4-0 ‘under’ run by the Packers. Including that outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 10-7 for the Packers this season and that includes a 5-3 mark on the road.

Similar to the AFC Championship, this is a rematch from the regular season and the first encounter wasn’t close as San Francisco blasted Green Bay 37-8 on the Sunday Night Football spot in Week 12. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers couldn’t do anything that night, getting held to 198 total yards. The unit was 1-of-15 on third down conversations and he was sacked five times. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garropolo didn’t have to do much (14-of-20, 253 yards, 2 TDs) as the 49ers led 23-0 at halftime and they could’ve been up 31-0 if they didn’t settle for two short field goals (29, 27 yards).

The ‘under’ (48) cashed in that game and the books have dropped the number three points for the rematch. Both clubs have been solid defensively down the stretch, especially San Francisco. The unit flustered Rodgers in November at home and they were incredible last week against Minnesota, surrendering just 147 total yards to QB Kirk Cousins and a Vikings team that traveled well this season. Rodgers is certainly a step above Cousins but the key to beating or competing with San Francisco is running the football and hoping the offense makes mistakes. Green Bay went 10-1 when rushing for 100-plus yards this season but the one loss came to 49ers – so maybe that theory could be tossed.

Rodgers has gone 4-5 in his career versus San Francisco, 0-2 in the playoffs, and that includes a 1-3 mark in Northern California. Unfortunately for him, the defense allowed 36.3 PPG at San Francisco in the losses and just three points in the lone victory. Buying the Packers based on the narrative of Rodgers alone is certainly justified. He’s 10-7 all-time as a starter in the postseason and the Packers have never been held under 20 points with him under center. That production has helped the ‘over’ go 11-6 in his playoff starts and that includes a 6-1 run to the high side entering this game. In his playoff wins, the Packers have averaged 30.6 PPG. So if you expect Green Bay to be competitive on Sunday then you’re assuming points to follow suit.

Fearless Predictions - Over/Under Picks

This isn’t an easy game to handicap but I believe the point-spread is fair and San Francisco is definitely the better team but I can also see how bettors are afraid to go against Rodgers, similar to fading Tom Brady or Drew Brees – two guys already sent packing this postseason. This 49ers defense is the real deal and their numbers against non-divisional opponents has been even better this season, especially at home. The game will be closer than the first meeting and Green Bay will score more than 8 points but my lean would be to the Under (45). San Francisco wins a tight one – let’s call it 23-17.