Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


THE D IN KC

How about that Kansas City defense. Through its last four games, the Chiefs’ D has held opponents to just 30 points, three touchdowns, 261 yards of offense per game while piling up 10 sacks and keeping offenses to a 36-percent third-down conversion rate.

The Chiefs are still in the hunt for a first-round bye and will be at full force when they host the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17.

The Chargers’ offense has topped 20 points just once since November 8 and looked dreadful versus the Oakland Raiders’ Bottom-5 defense last week. Over his career, QB Philip Rivers is 14-14 versus the Chiefs but has an 82.6 QB rating against KC, which is his third-lowest rating among the league’s 31 other teams.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see L.A. play some bench players including backup QB Tyrod Taylor. With KC still in win-mode, we are taking the Chargers’ team total 17.5 and hitting the Under.


DODGING HODGES

The Pittsburgh Steelers almost had Rudolph save Christmas last week, instead backup center B.J. Finney stepped on the QB's foot, Rudolph got tripped up and pile-drove into the ground injuring him and forcing the Steelers to use fourth-stringer Devlin Hodges once again

Without No. 1 center Maurkice Pouncey and Rudolph, the league’s third-worst offense over the last three weeks doesn’t stand much of a chance of putting up points, even with Pittsburgh facing a resting Baltimore defense. The Steelers have scored more than one TD in just two of their last six games and could be without top running back James Conner as well.

Take the Under on the Steelers’ team total of 20.5 points.


PLAYOFF PATH: PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Not wanting to be on the naughty list, there is a possibility that the Pittsburgh Steelers punch their ticket to the playoffs. ESPN gives them a 28.4 percent chance of seeing a Wild Card game.

The simplest path for the Steelers is a victory versus the Ravens and a Houston Texans win over the Tennessee Titans. This scenario could net backers a +378 payday but the Texans could possibly be playing for nothing and wanting to rest key starters for the playoffs.

An even more interesting path is a Steelers loss (+115), a Texans win (+175), a Colts win (-200), a Vikings win (-300), a Packers win (-500), a K.C. win (-370) and a Dolphins win (+625). This 0.8 percent probable case has a reward of around +13,000. I think we like the first scenario if you’re rooting for the Steelers.


HIGBEE LIMITS

L.A. Rams TE Tyler Higbee showed that he can maintain his ridiculous production even with the return of fellow TE Gerald Everett. Higbee saw 89 percent of the snaps and 11 of the 12 TE targets in Week 16. The 11 targets were his third-straight week reaching double-digit targets as the emerging TE sits fifth in total targets (44) and second in receiving yards (438) over the last four games.

Although the Rams are eliminated, Higbee is just seven catches and 50 yards short of a 70/700 campaign which is incredible considering he had just 212 yards heading into Week 13. It just so happens that the Rams face the most generous team to opposing tight ends in the Arizona Cardinals (73.9 Y/G) this week.

We are taking one more ride on the Cards’ TE defense and will take the Over on Higbee’s receiving total on any number below 80 yards.


NFC WEST UP FOR GRABS

Sunday night will feature an NFC West throwdown that will crown the division leader. The 49ers can claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win in Seattle, but a loss could shake up the entire bracket. If Seattle, a 3.5-point home dog, pulls off the victory it will win the division but need some help to get a bye.

Recency bias will have the public down on the Seahawks, especially without RB Chris Carson, but QB Russell Wilson is an impressive 12-3 lifetime versus the 49ers. Wilson has never lost to San Francisco at home over his career and knocked off the Niners on the road in Week 10.

We like the 3.5 points at home and if you really want the Hawks to capture the No. 1 seed, then put your dollars down on this dandy: Seattle win (+155), Carolina win (+500) and Detroit win (+475) for +8700.


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NFL Betting Stats as of Dec 25

Road Teams: 132-100-8 ATS
Home Teams: 100-132-8 ATS

Favorites: 107-125-8 ATS
Underdogs: 125-107-8 ATS

Home Faves: 59-84-6 ATS
Home Dogs: 41-48-2 ATS

Road Faves: 48-41-2 ATS
Road Dogs: 84-59-6 ATS

O/U: 116-124

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Over/under win totals for baseball in 2020:

54.5— Detroit Tigers

64— Miami Marlins

65— Kansas City Royals

69.5— Seattle Mariners

71— Pittsburgh Pirates

72.5— San Francisco Giants

Fact of the Day:
In 22 of the last 40 seasons, there was at least one unbeaten in the top 10 into at least the start of February. This week, no top 10 teams are unbeaten.

Thursday’s quiz
Who was manager of the White Sox when they won the World Series in 2005?

Wednesday’s quiz
John Adams was the 2nd President of the United States.

Tuesday’s quiz
Mike Schmidt hit the most home runs ever, out of all the players who played for only one team in their career (548).

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Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Rickey Henderson was born on Christmas, which raises the question; whats the worst day of the year to have a birthday?

My votes: December 26, April 1, February 29. Could you imagine having a birthday once every four years?

12) Best days of the year to have a birthday?

My picks are January 1st, July 4th. Maybe December 31, too.

11) MLB Network ran an old hour-long special Tuesday night on the Oakland A’s of the 70’s; brought me back to my childhood days as a baseball fan. Good stuff.

10) Guessing I’m very late with this, but stumbled across an HBO series called Curb Your Enthusiasm yesterday; funny stuff. Some of Larry David’s act is cringe-worthy, but I spent lot of time laughing, which is pretty much what matters.

The late Bob Einstein was on this show; he was also the star of Super Dave, a comedy show in the 90’s, and was in Oceans 13. Funny man.

9) Celtics 118, Raptors 102— Toronto had won 34 consecutive divisional home games.

8) Edwin Encarnacion signed with the Chicago White Sox for one-year, $12M.

7) NFL named Joe Namath as one of the 22 finalists for the QB slots on their 100 greatest players list. Joe Namath is a terrific guy, was very famous, but he won two (two!!!) playoff games in his career. Overrated, for sure.

6) My top 3 quarterbacks of Super Bowl era: Elway, Staubach, Brady

5) Ben Roethlisberger said that he’ll be back with the Steelers next year, good news for fans in Pittsburgh. Big Ben hasn’t played since Week 2 this season.

4) Podcast recommendation: “How I Built This”, an interview series with successful people who built big businesses. Interesting to hear how successful people think.

3) Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson gave each of his offensive linemen a Rolex watch for Christmas.

2) Clippers 111, Lakers 106— Smart scheduling by the NBA, having the two LA teams play each other, so neither has to travel on Christmas.

High quality game; Leonard had 35 points, 12 rebounds in a game the Lakers led by 15 points in the third quarter. Harrell had 18 points in 31:00 off the bench for the Clippers.

1) Houston 75, Washington 71— Cougars win the Diamond Head Classic. We’ll see both teams in March, also on a neutral floor. Houston was +8 in turnovers; their bench outscored Huskies’ bench 18-5, after Washington led by 14 early on.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


SUNDAY NIGHT HOMER PICK

The Seattle Seahawks must be feeling nostalgic with the signings of runningbacks Robert Turbin and Marshawn Lynch prior to their Week 17 encounter with the San Francisco 49ers. The trip down memory lane is the result of putting Chris Carson on the I.R. along with Rashaad Penny, and C.J. Prosise. The only healthy running back that was on the roster to begin the year is rookie RB Travis Homer who Pete Carroll said the team “would lean on Homer in the running game against the 49ers.”

Homer is a 2019 sixth-round pick out of Miami (FL) with 4.58 speed who is a great mix of speed, athleticism and toughness and was one of the best pass-pro RBs in the draft. The knocks on the runner are his vision and minimal use in the passing game (19 catches in 13 games last year).

San Francisco may have the league’s No. 12 DVOA rush defense, but Kyle Shannahan’s defense is allowing just 92 yards rushing a game over its last three games. It will be tough sledding for the rookie, but with his rushing total set at a manageable 42.5 yards, it’s hard to pass on since his coach has said that the volume will be there.

We are taking Homer’s Over 42.5 yards as we think he gets 13-15 rushes on the low end.


BILLS CRAWLING INTO PLAYOFFS

People who defend the Buffalo offense are kidding themselves. Josh Allen has just missed too many deep throws, taken too many sacks and fumbled too often. The Bills are putting up just 236 yards of offense over their last three games which is the second-worst mark in the league behind teams like Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.

With Buffalo already locked into the 5th seed in the AFC, the Bills will rest some players versus the New York Jets on Sunday, but head coach Sean McDermott told reporters that Josh Allen and the majority of the offense will play.

New York held a similarly bad offense in Pittsburgh to 260 yards and 10 points last week and should get healthier on defense in Week 17.

Josh Allen may start, but there is a good chance he catches a breather in the second half. We are backing the Under on the Bills’ team total of 18.5 — a number they haven’t topped in three straight weeks and will struggle against the Jets’ No. 2 DVOA rush defense.


ALLEN WITH HISTORY

Sticking with the Bills, QB Josh Allen has a skill set that scouts love but hasn’t produced big numbers in the NFL passing department, (yet?). Versus the Jets in Week 17, Allen will have a chance to become just the second NFL QB (Cam Newton did it twice) to throw for 3,000 yards, rush for 500 yards, pass for 20 TDs and rush for 10 TDs.

All the Buffalo QB needs to do is rush for one TD on Sunday to reach the milestone.

If and when the Bills get inside the 10, we are looking for Allen to call his own number and reach double-digit rushing TDs. Allen will finish the season with the most rushing TDs by a QB regardless, but we are hoping the 10 TD milestone is a number that the QB and coaching staff are aware of. Take J.Allen to get a rushing TD for plus-money.


PLAYOFF PATH: DALLAS COWBOYS

Jason Garrett hasn’t been fired yet even though fans have been calling for it ever since the beatdown the Dallas Cowboys took at home on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys can still win the division and a trip to the playoffs despite the fact that they have lost four of their last five games. ESPN gives Dallas a 73.8 probability of making it to the postseason, but the path is partially out of its hands.

The first step is to beat the Washington Redskins in Dallas as 10.5-point favorites. The Cowboys have won eight of the last 10 matchups and knocked off Washington in Week 2, 31-21. The Redskins will be without rookie QB Dwayne Haskins and possibly No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin who is in the concussion protocol.

The second step is a Philadelphia Eagles loss to the New York Giants. The Eagles are 4.5-point road chalk and have won the last six matchups. The Giants have only two divisional wins this year with both those coming against Washington. If Daniel Jones can put up some points, things could get real interesting as the Eagles could be without Zach Ertz and are real short in the playmaker department.

If you are a Cowboys backer, don’t forget to put some of that stocking stuffer cheddar on the Cowboys ML (-500) and the Giants ML (+180) for a +233 payout and a playoff berth.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack

— North Carolina 55, Temple 13— Temple coach Carey is now 0-7 in bowls.

— Michigan 27, Wake Forest 21— Total was 51.5; no one scored in 4th quarter.

— Texas A&M 24, Oklahoma State 21— Aggies have only four seniors on whole roster.

— Air Force 31, Washington State 21— Flyboys ran ball for 371 yards.

— Falcons’ coach Dan Quinn will be back in Atlanta next year.

— Five bowl games on New Year’s Eve, only four on New Year’s Day; why?

Quote of the Day:
“We believe in championships here. Just as the fan base might be frustrated, the coaching staff and players are frustrated . . . we’re going to be a very good team next year.”
USC football coach Clay Helton, whose team was not good Friday

Saturday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted Joe Namath?

Friday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal finished his NBA career with the Celtics, nine years ago.

Thursday’s quiz
Ozzie Guillen was manager of the White Sox when they won the World Series in ’05.

*********************

Saturday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) Pitt 34, Eastern Michigan 30— OK, never saw this before; Panthers score with 0:47 left to take a 34-30 lead, their first lead of the night. EMU was trying to drive for a winning score when their QB gets hit while throwing an incomplete pass with 0:10 left.

The QB gets up, one of the defenders says something to him, and the QB smacks the guy in the facemask— not good. He gets thrown out of the game; a kid playing his last college game, who threw for 311 yards and two TD’s, gets tossed before the last play. Oy.

12) Found a treasure trove of old knowledge Thursday, a website full of old stats from the USFL, which played from 1983-85. Was a very good league, good springtime entertainment.

22 different cities hosted USFL teams; Breakers played in a different city every year (Boston, New Orleans, Portland).

11) Steve Young led the LA Express to a 10-8 record in 1984, playing for coach John Hadl, who was an excellent QB himself in the old AFL for the Chargers, and then briefly for the Rams.

Young threw for 2,361 yards, ran for 515 more; they slipped to 3-15 the next year, losing a great 34-33 game to Jim Kelly and the Houston Gamblers early in the season, in front of a small gathering at the LA Coliseum.

When I say small crowd, the Express averaged 8,415 fans a game in the Coliseum. No bueno.

10) Tampa Bay Bandits averaged over 40,000 fans/game in their three-year run for Steve Spurrier, going 35-19. Florida alum John Reaves played QB most of the time for the Bandits; at one point, he was a 1st round draft pick of the Philadelphia Eagles.

9) Super Bowl winners by seed, since 1990:
seed #1) 14 Super Bowl champs
#2) 7
#3) 1 (Colts ’06)
#4) 4
#5) 1 (Giants ’07)
#6) 2 (Steelers ’05/Packers ’10)

8) Minnesota Vikings are locked into the #6 seed in the NFC; they’re likely to sit lot of guys this weekend, including QB Kirk Cousins.

7) Marshawn Lynch will apparently be paid $60,588 by the Seahawks this week.

For any NFL player with more than 10 years of experience, the minimum salary is $1,030,000 for the whole year, which breaks down to $60,588 per week over 17 weeks.

6) Washington Huskies’ QB Jacob Eason, the #4 NFL prospect at QB, according to ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., announced Thursday that he will forgo his senior season and enter the NFL Draft.

5) Lebron James has played four games for the Lakers against the rival Clippers; he is 5-29 on the arc in those four games.

4) Louisiana Tech 14, Miami 0— Miami used three QB’s in this game; none of them played well. This is their first losing season since 2014. Not often the TV announcers are speculating during the game about the offensive coordinator getting fired.

Friday, the offensive coordinator got fired.

Miami lost nine of its last ten bowl games. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz is 6-0 in bowls at Louisiana Tech.

3) On November 12, Evansville upset Kentucky 67-64 in Rupp Arena, a great moment for the Purple Aces and their coach, Kentucky alum Walter McCarty.

Six weeks later, McCarty was put on leave by Evansville, after “……a troubling report about Coach McCarty’s interactions with a member of the campus community.”

Former Samford coach Bennie Seltzer is the Purple Aces’ interim head coach.

2) RIP Don Imus, 79, a legend on NYC radio who often made me laugh when I was driving to work. ESPN’s Mike Breen did the sports on Imus’ show for a while; Imus would bust his chops and make him laugh, while he was trying to read his report.

1) Aaron Rodgers, Danica Patrick recently bought a Malibu estate for $28M in cash; who doesn’t have $28M lying around?

[StarDust Bum]

I'll be on vacation and will try to post when i can.....In the meantime UDOG will be posting for me information as far as News Stats Etc.
I"ll be back Sunday the 5th

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAPPY NEW YEAR !


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at DET 01:00 PM
DET +12.5
O 43.0

NO at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR +13.0
O 45.0

ATL at TB 01:00 PM
ATL +1.0
O 48.0

CHI at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN +3.5
U 36.0

CLE at CIN 01:00 PM
CIN +2.5
O 43.5

NYJ at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -1.5
U 36.5

LAC at KC 01:00 PM
KC -9.0
O 45.5

MIA at NE 01:00 PM
NE -16.5
U 45.0

ARI at LAR 04:25 PM
LAR -5.5
U 45.0

PIT at BAL 04:25 PM
BAL +2.0
U 37.0

IND at JAC 04:25 PM
IND -5.5
U 41.5

PHI at NYG 04:25 PM
NYG +4.0
O 44.5

OAK at DEN 04:25 PM
DEN -3.5
U 41.0

WAS at DAL 04:25 PM
DAL -13.0
U 45.5

TEN at HOU 04:25 PM
TEN -6.0
O 44.5

SF at SEA 08:20 PM
SEA +3.5
U 45.5

[Udog]

NFL Week 17 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kirk Cousins is likely to sit out Sunday against Chicago, with Minnesota locked into the NFC's No. 6 playoff seed. That news on Friday sent the line from Vikings -1 straight to Bears -2 at The SuperBook.

NFL Week 17 player absences are as much about keeping key performers safe ahead of the playoffs as they are about actual legitimate injuries. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Minnesota is locked into the No. 6 seed, and reports Friday indicated the Vikes plan to rest QB Kirk Cousins and several other starters at home against Chicago. Running back Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is definitely out. “This game has gone all the way to Bears -3,” Osterman said Friday of a line that was Vikings -7.5 on Monday morning.

The line was taken off the board during Minnesota’s Monday night loss to Green Bay, which gave the Vikes nothing to play for in Week 17, so it reopened at Minnesota -1 Tuesday. When the news broke Friday morning, the number went straight to Bears -2.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Tight end Zach Ertz (ribs/back) is out Sunday at the New York Giants, in a game Philly needs in order to assure itself of the NFC East title and a playoff berth. Wideout Nelson Agholor (knee) will sit out for the fourth time in the last five games. However, those absences didn’t sway oddsmakers. “No move for the Eagles’ guys.” Philadelphia is a 4-point chalk.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Quarterback DeShaun Watson (back) is questionable at home against Tennessee, but that’s another one of those situations chalked up more to keeping him in as good a shape as possible for wild-card weekend. Star wideout DeAndre Hopkins (illness) is also questionable. “Watson is probably worth 3 points to the spread, and Hopkins is worth a half-point. The line will go up a little bit more if they are both ruled out.”

The SuperBook opened the Titans -4.5, presciently expecting Watson to sit out, and bettors quickly pushed Tennessee to -6.5. The line then tumbled to Titans -3.5 Tuesday, then made its way back to -5.5 on Friday’s injury news.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: In another protective measure, QB and MVP favorite Lamar Jackson won’t play, so Robert Griffin III gets the start at home against Pittsburgh. Other starters are likely to rest, too, and running back Mark Ingram (calf) is out, as well. But The SuperBook saw this possibility early in the week and moved from Ravens -2.5 to Steelers -2 by Monday afternoon.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Rookie QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) will be a game-time decision for the road trip to face the Los Angeles Rams. “The difference between Murray and the backup (Brett Hundley) is significant, probably 3 points. It’s hard to know for sure how much it’s worth in this game, because the Rams probably won’t be playing their starters.”

Indeed, the defending NFC champs have already been eliminated from playoff contention. This game has been off the board all week at The SuperBook, though the lookahead line – before L.A.’s playoff hopes ended in Week 16 – was at Rams -7.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder), who has 1,150 rushing yards and averages 4.8 yards per carry, is doubtful at Denver. Osterman pegged Jacobs’ value at a half-point. The Raiders are 3.5-point underdogs.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Wideout Odell Beckham Jr. (illness) is questionable for the Browns’ game at Cincinnati, but Osterman said there was no move off that news. Cleveland is laying 3 points.


Weather Watch

CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI: There’s a 90 percent chance of rain in Cincinnati on Sunday. “The total has gone down 3 points in that game.” That move came early, as the total has stuck at 43 since Monday.

NEW YORK JETS AT BUFFALO: This contest also stands a 90 percent chance of seeing rainfall, knocking the total down a point to 36.5.

NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA: It’s a 50/50 prospect that Charlotte, N.C., will see precipitation during Sunday’s game. After opening at 48, the total was at 45 by Friday morning.

PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: There’s a 70 percent chance of rain in Baltimore, but as noted above, that’s not the key reason for a 4-point drop in the total, from 41 to 37. “A lot of that has to do with the expectation that the Ravens will sit most of their starters for some or all of the game.”

OAKLAND AT DENVER: No precipitation is expected, but it’ll be chilly, with temperatures in the mid-30s and winds of 10-15 mph. That led to a half-point decline in the total, to 41.


Reverse Line Moves

CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: “We took some early Vikings money, but now it’s been announced that Cousins and a lot of the Minnesota starters aren’t playing, so the line has moved a lot in the Bears’ favor.” Minnesota opened -7.5, reopened -1 after Monday’s home loss to Green Bay, then the line jumped the fence Friday to Bears -3 on the Vikings news.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 17
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (11.35 ppg) since Dec 30, 2018 facing a team allowing at least 23 points per game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-15.20 ppg) since Nov 11, 2013 on the road coming off a home game where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:
-- The Bengals are 8-0 ATS (9.69 ppg) since Oct 20, 2013 coming off a road game where Andy Dalton threw at least touchdowns.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:
-- The Browns are 0-12 OU (-7.54 ppg) since Nov 06, 2016 coming off a home game where they allowed at least 24 points.

-- The Rams are 0-11 OU (-10.95 ppg) since Sep 20, 2015 off a game as a dog where they allowed more points than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-9-2 OU (-8.64 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 as a dog of more than three points when Derek Carr threw for at least 250 yards last game.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Cowboys are 11-0 OU (10.18 ppg) since Oct 01, 2017 off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Chiefs are 0-12 OU (-10.25 ppg) since Oct 11, 2015 at home facing a team below .500 on the season.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
PLAY ON: Home teams in matchups of teams that have played already in the past 15 days are 36-22-3 ATS. Active on Houston.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Falcons are 0-12 ATS (-7.62 ppg) off a game as a favorite in which they committed two-plus turnovers and did not win by 14-plus points.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Jets are 15-0 OU (+11.10 ppg) as a road dog off a win when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 32 passes per game.

[Udog]

SNF - 49ers at Seahawks
Matt Blunt

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The final Sunday Night Football game of the year isn't going to be a night game locally until the 2nd half, but we can only hope that both teams involved bring it from the start, as the stakes are pretty high as they are. A division crown and a bye week in the playoffs is what awaits the winner, while a road game against the NFC East division is what the loser gets.

With San Francisco and Seattle a bit banged up, that extra week of rest may make all the difference, but as long as the 'loser' can get by the Wild Card playoff round, a win in that type of scenario for a team that was a win away from being a top seeded team is plenty to build off of. That's neither here nor there for these teams yet though, as the rest is the bigger reward right now.

So can San Francisco split the season series?

Total Talk

A total of 47 has seen but a steady trickle to the 'under' since opening, and with the sense that the stakes involved will make it a defacto playoff game, going low makes a lot of sense here. The first meeting sailed 'over' this identical number in the three-point overtime (27-24) win for the Seahawks, so even flipping the result would lend itself to going low. However, the defense the 49ers have played in recent weeks would lead you to believe otherwise.

Three straight overs and giving up an average of 35.3 points per game has really dulled the shine on what this 49ers defense had shown on multiple occasions earlier in the year. But the schedule toughened up and more film started to get put out on the Niners, and teams have made the necessary adjustments. The two other NFC West teams that have faced the Niners twice increased their point total in the second meeting, and both of those were SF home games. Getting that defense keyed up for a playoff run has got to be a secondary goal for the 49ers this week, I'm just not sure you can trust it.

It's not like there aren't cases to be made for the 'over' here as well, as it's not like Seattle's defense is lighting the world on fire these days. The Seahawks have held only two of their 15 foes to fewer then 20 points on the scoreboard and both of those came on the road. In other words, every visiting team to Seattle this year has scored 20 or more points in their trip to the Pacific Northwest. So much for that dominant home field advantage for the Seahawks right.

All of this is to say in a long-winded fashion that the total has got to be a pass all the way around. Tough to disagree with either case to be made for a play on the total, although it would be going low for me if forced to choose. There is always the possibility that this game does turn into a one-sided 34-7 game, and from there with their fates sealed, it's as vanilla as it gets with hand-off after hand-off. That would be the tipping point for me in looking low. But there really isn't a need to get too cute with this game.

Side Spiel

San Francisco has been the better team from a statistical profile all year long, and do deserve to be the chalk for this game. It's a number that's danced around -3 with juice and -3.5, and it probably will be until kickoff. Make sure you grab whatever number is more beneficial to the side you are on, but for me, I can only lay it with the road favorite.

What San Francisco has done all year has been hard to ignore, as they've never been soundly beaten. They've got two defeats by a single field goal on their resume, along with a seven-point fluke loss to Atlanta where the Falcons scored 14 points in the final five seconds. Youth and concerns regarding that have popped up as minor concerns here and there for the 49ers, but you play that type of consistent football and eventually you'll get rewarded. A division title and a favorable path to the Super Bowl is that reward for the 49ers this week, and they will get the job done.

Seattle is still the one-man show in just being the Russell Wilson show, but that's not always enough in games like this. The Seahawks have been hit with more injuries and absences since the first meeting, and those defensive points allowed numbers at home are staggering, with the Bengals being on that list. To have a +12 point differential for the year and be sitting at 11-4 straight up is quite the feat, and one that's really got nowhere to go but down.

The Seahawks have looked like a Wildcard team for most of the year, and with a 2-6 against the spread run going at home, and a 3-9-1 ATS run at home against a foe with a winning road record, the end result is the deserved result for the 2019 Seattle Seahawks.

Final Thoughts

The 49ers are a popular side in this game for sure, but it's easy to see why and hard to want to confidently step in front of that. Oddly enough, Seattle's played much of their better football away from home, so embracing a Wildcard road trip next week – they've already won in Philadelphia this year – wouldn't be that hard of a sell. That still has no bearing on how this NFC West title game plays out, but that's probably what we will still end up with.

Unless Wilson plays out of his head for this entire game, and Seattle's defense wins the turnover battle, San Fran should be able to lean on this team until they crack early in the 2nd half. San Fran's youth may be considered a knock for some, but they've experienced a lot of stressful ways to win and lose games this year, and those are quite the learning experiences.

Going out on the road and winning a division crown is a great next step in that evolution of a young team, as San Francisco adds another ATS victory to their 5-2 ATS run on the road.

Best Bet: San Francisco -3

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 17
Joe Williams

We have reached the final weekend of the National Football League regular season. We'll break down the injuries, resting players and other important news and notes to try and help you win as best we can. The final regular season week usually has a handful of strange lines.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 16 6-10 7-8-1 6-10
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 116-123-1 115-123-2 107-128-5

Divisional Game Results Week 16
Buffalo at New England Over (39) New England 24, Buffalo 17
N.Y. Giants at Washington Over (42.5) N.Y. Giants 41, Washington 35 (OT)
Baltimore at Cleveland Under (49) Baltimore 31, Cleveland 15
Oakland at L.A. Chargers Under (45) Oakland 24, L.A. Chargers 17
Dallas at Philadelphia Under (46.5) Philadelphia 17, Dallas 9
Arizona at Seattle Under (51) Arizona 27, Seattle 13
Green Bay at Minnesota Under (47) Green Bay 23, Minnesota 10

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 17 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Chicago at Minnesota: 41 ½ to 36
Tennessee at Houston: 48 ½ to 44
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: 41 to 37
Arizona at L.A. Rams: 49 to 45
New Orleans at Carolina: 48 to 45
Cleveland at Cincinnati: 46 to 43

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 17 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Under 96%
Arizona at L.A. Rams: Under 94%
Oakland at Denver: Under 91%
L.A. Chargers at Kansas City: Under 90%
New Orleans at Carolina: Under 82%
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: Under 81%
Tennessee at Houston: Under 75%
Cleveland at Cincinnati: Under 72%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (63 percent) in the Miami at New England matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' both the Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants and Atlanta at Tampa Bay (61 percent) contests. As many of you know, the last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap and while we’ve had plenty of great games to follow, Week 17 is borderline unwatchable at times.

Handicapping Week 17

All 16 games are divisional matchups on Sunday. As many of you know, the last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap and while we’ve had plenty of great games to follow, Week 17 is borderline unwatchable at times.

Week 17 Total Results (2011-2018)

Year Over/Under
2018 7-9
2017 8-8
2016 9-7
2015 5-11
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7

If you were to lean one way or another on your total wagers this week, the 'under' is probably the better option.

We saw the 'under' go 9-7 last season and that's been the common theme in the finale with the low side going 70-58 (55%) overall the last eight seasons in Week 17.

Week 16 Total Results

Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 32-41
NFC vs. NFC 4-0 26-22
AFC vs. AFC 2-2 22-21-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-1 30-28

Week 17 Action

Cleveland at Cincinnati: This is a rather meaningless game, as the Bengals have locked up the No. 1 overall pick, but no one is expected to be rested. They'll play this one like regular. One thing to watch, Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. last (illness) is questionable to play, so that's an injury to keep an eye on. These teams just met on Dec. 8 in Cleveland, and the Browns came away with a 27-19 win and 'over' result. The over has cashed in three straight for the Bengals, while going 3-3 in Cleveland's past six road outings.

Chicago at Minnesota: The Vikings are not expected to play their starters in Week 17, while Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is ruled out, and RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) is listed as questionable. MLB Eric Kendricks (quadriceps) will also sit, after he created mayhem with two fumble recoveries last week. The status for the Vikings' starters is why the line is listed in the mid-30's, and could potentially fall further.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The line is rather high for this game, but there are a few things to watch. Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston (right thumb, knee) is considered questionable, while WR Chris Godwin (hamstring) has been ruled out. Falcons WR Julio Jones (knee, shoulder) was limited in practice, and a question mark as well. If Jones and Winston are out, the line is likely to plummet.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Biulls are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoff picture, so watch their players. Head coach Sean McDermott didn't give bettors much information, only telling local beat writer Joe Buscaglia that they will "play a majority of the guys", while not getting into specifics. You can expect the Bills to treat this similar to a preseason game, as QB Josh Allen might play a couple of offensive series, perhaps the first quarter or into the second quarter. McDermott did confirm QB Matt Barkley would see time. For the Jets, both QBs Robby Anderson (calf) and Demaryius Thomas (hamstring) are each question marks.

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City: The Chargers are likely to be at full strength in this one, while the Chiefs haven't revealed whether or not anyone will be resting. While yes, technically the Chiefs can get to the two-seed and a first-round bye with a win and a loss by the Patriots to the Dolphins, don't bet on that. If the Chiefs are scoreboard watching, and things get out of hand in Foxboro, the Chiefs could potentially rest guys in the second half, so beware.

Tennessee at Houston: The Titans are still jostling for a playoff spot, so you can expect they'll be playing hard. They'll be without CB Adoree' Jackson (foot) and WR Adam Humphries (ankle) for the matchup. This will be a game to watch closely. If the Chiefs end up beating the Chiefs in the 1:00 p.m. window, you can expect several stars for the Texans to be held out. They would be locked into the No. 4 seed in Kansas City wins. QB DeShaun Watson (back) is listed as questionable, while WR Will Fuller (groin) is out. WRs DeAndre Hopkins (illness) and Kenny Stills (knee) are each questionable, while OT Laremy Tunsil (ankle) and CB Bradley Roby (hamstring) are also question marks. Expect a flood of stars resting if K.C. wins.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: Colts RB Jordan Wilkins (ankle) has starred lately, but he has been ruled out for this one. The Jaguars also have a slew of key players listed on the injury report, including QB Gardner Minshew II (shoulder), CB A.J. Bouye (wrist), RB Leonard Fournette (neck) and WR DeDe Westbrook (neck, shoulder) all listed as questionable.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: The Eagles cannot afford to take their foot off the gas, so they'll be playing to win and lock up the NFC East Division title. The Eagles have hit the 'under' in five of the past seven games, including their 23-17 win over the Giants Dec. 9 in Philly. The 'over' has connected in six of the past eight meetings in this series, including 7-0 in the past seven battles at MetLife Stadium. TE Zach Ertz (ribs) is out for the finale, so that hurts.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The Ravens will rest their starters, as they have the No. 1 overall seed sewn up. QB Robert Griffin III is expected to start, although third-string QB Trace McSorley might also see some time. For the Steelers, they'll be down RB James Conner (thigh), and C Maurkice Pouncey (knee) will also be inactive. This one is likely to be a defensive slog, which is par for the course in Baltimore, whomever ends up playing. The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Balto.

Arizona at L.A. Rams: The Cards and Rams are each eliminated from the playoff picture, but most players should play as usual. However, QB Kyler Murray (hamstirng) is considered a game-time decision, and with nothing to play for it's unlikely he is pressed into duty. Look for QB Brett Hundley to get the start under center. The under has connected in four of the past five meetings in this series, and 4-1 in the past five battles in SoCal, too.

Oakland at Denver: The Raiders are expected to be without RB Josh Jacobs (shoulder), as the rookie is dealing with shoulder issue and skin infection. Technically, the Raiders still have a shot at a postseason spot, so WR Tyrell Williams (foot) is available, so that's good news. The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Denver, and 6-0 in the previous six meetings in this series overall.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with a spread of double-digit points or more for Week 17, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 49.5 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. ET): The good news for potential 'over' bettors is that the Panthers plan to get the ball into the hands of RB Christian McCaffrey as much as possible, as he needs 67 receiving yards to be just the third player in NFL history to post 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in the same season. The bad news is that WR DJ Moore (concussion) is out. For the Saints, they're still fighting for a first-round bye, and QB Drew Brees (thumb) and WR Michael Thomas (hand) are ready to roll. The under is 12-4 in the past 16 meetings in Carolina, but the over is 5-1 in the previous six in the series.

Miami at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots are still fighting for a first-round bye, and they cannot afford to take their foot off the gas, either. That's all well and good, but their offense has struggled to find consistency for most of the season. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six games overall, while going 5-2 in the past seven inside the division. The under is 9-3 in New England's past 12 inside the division, while going 18-8 in their past 26 as a favorite.

Green Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET): The Packers have a lot to play for, as they could still work their way up to the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC if things break a certain way. Don't expect the visitors to rest anyone in this game. RB Jamaal Williams (shoulder) is doubtful for the game, but that's the only concern. The under has cashed in eight straight inside the division for the Pack. The under is 6-2 in Detroit's past eight inside the division, too.

Washington at Dallas (4:25 p.m. ET): The Cowboys are expected to have QB Dak Prescott (shoulder) under center, and they'll be fighting for the NFC East Division title if the Eagles lose against the Giants in New York. Both games are at 4:25, so there is no chance the Cowboys are scoreboard watching and resting anyone. They'll keep going hard to the end, as best they can, at least. The over has connected in seven of the past eight meetings in this series, including 4-0 in the past four in Big D.

Under the Lights

San Francisco at Seattle (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The NFC West division title is on the line when the Niners and Seahawks meet on Sunday Night Football in the standalone primetime game of the weekend. It's going to be a war. The over has cashed in four straight for the 49ers inside the NFC West, while going 7-2 in their past nine overall. The over is 7-3 in Seattle's past 10 inside the division, while going 7-2 in the past nine against winning teams. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings, too, including the Monday Night battle at Levi's Stadium on Nov. 11, a 27-24 win by Seattle.

[Udog]

NFL Betting Stats as of Dec 28

Road Teams: 132-100-8 ATS
Home Teams: 100-132-8 ATS

Favorites: 107-125-8 ATS
Underdogs: 125-107-8 ATS

Home Faves: 59-84-6 ATS
Home Dogs: 41-48-2 ATS

Road Faves: 48-41-2 ATS
Road Dogs: 84-59-6 ATS

O/U: 116-124


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Top six picks for Week 17 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Chicago +1 (644)
5) Indianapolis -3.5 (695)
4) Kansas City -8.5 (753)
3) Seattle +3.5 (807)
2) Tennessee -3.5 (987)
1) NJ Giants +4.5 (995)
2019 record: 51-40-5


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by: Josh Inglis


ARTHUR JUAN THE WARPATH

Over the last 19 NFL seasons, a rookie receiver has reached 1,000 yards receiving just 11 times. This year, two rookie receivers have a chance to reach the milestone as Titans’ A.J. Brown has 927 yards, while Washington’s Terry McLaurin sits at 919. The latter has been ruled out with a concussion this week, but Brown finds himself in a position to hit the 1,000-yark mark and help his team make the playoffs.

Brown has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in three of his last five games and is a big reason why the Titans are one win away from making the postseason after starting the year 2-4. All Tennessee has to do is beat the Houston Texans who Brown destroyed for a 8-114-1 in Week 15.

We are grabbing the Over 67.5 on Brown’s receiving total which puts him just under the 1,000-yard mark.


THE BEAT JONES ON

The Green Bay Packers may win ugly, but they win. With one more victory they can lock up a first-round bye and with a little luck, could end up with home-field advantage as the No. 1 seed. Running back Aaron Jones was the man of Week 16 rushing 23 times for 156 yards and two scores. The league-leader in touchdowns has hit paydirt five times in the last three games and could have all the touches to himself with fellow RB Jamaal Williams doubtful for Week 17’s matchup against the Detroit Lions. With one more TD, Jones would tie Amhan Green for the Packers’ single-season touchdown record set in 2003.

Williams has averaged 9.2 rushes over the last six weeks and there is no reason why Jones shouldn’t absorb those touches with so much on the line for the Packers. With Jones averaging 5.7 yards per carry over the last month and the Lions giving up 4.1 yards per carry on the season, assuming a 17-to-20-carry game for Jones we predict his rushing yardage to be somewhere in the 83-87 yard range.

As Jones’ rushing total is set at 70.5 yards, the Over is a big go for us here especially since he went for a 19-109-4 in the only game Williams missed this year. If you’re looking for more, take the Jones rushing TD (-130).


STRIKING A STINKING SECONDARY

Adam Chernoff pointed out on Twitter yesterday the sad state of the Washington Redskins’ secondary ahead of its matchup in Dallas versus the Cowboys on Sunday. Both of their safeties have been ruled out and in their place are two players who have 11 snaps combined this year.

On top of the safety issues, Chernoff continues to show that six of the eight Washingon cornerbacks have been with the team for 10 days or less and the starting LCB, RCB and slot corner have just 97 snaps combined this year.

Dallas QB Dak Prescott isn’t 100 percent heading into the game but somebody in the receiving core should roast these replacements. We are avoiding Amari Cooper who looked disinterested last week, which leaves us Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb.

Gallup’s total sits at 67.5 yards which the receiver has topped that number in two of his last three games. Cobb’s total is 45.5 yards which he has eclipsed in four of his last six.


CMC Vs. THE BIGGEST TOTAL, EVER

It’s been a rough season for the Carolina Panthers, to say the least but the lone bright spot has been the play of running back Christian McCaffrey. The star of the Panthers’ offense is just 67 yards receiving shy of becoming the third player in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards and catch 1,000 yards, a stat that isn’t lost on offensive coordinator Scott Turner.

The OC told reporters earlier this week that he will get CMC the ball any way he can versus the New Orleans Saints on Sunday and if McCaffrey can manage 216 yards from scrimmage, he will break Chris Johnson’s single-season record of 2,509 total yards.

The Saints are still gunning for a win on Sunday with playoff seeding at stake, but their defense has slipped out of the Top-10 DVOA ranks (both in the pass and in the run) and currently sits at No. 12. Even if New Orleans gameplans strictly against the Panthers RB, McCaffrey is just too skilled of a runner and receiver to be bottled up.

If you’re keen on profiting on history, take the Over on CMC’s total yards of 183.5. We doubt you will ever see a total as big as that.


MIXON MIXING IT UP

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon has seen at least 20 carries in each of his last four games and has averaged nearly 22 totes a game since Week 10. On deck for the league’s seventh-most used rusher is the Cleveland Browns who gave up 243 yards on the ground last week and are surrendering a league-high 216 yards a game over the last four weeks.

Just four weeks ago, Mixon gashed the Browns for 186 total yards (146 rushing) on 23 carries and four targets. The Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight weeks and we hope that trend continues into Week 17.

With Mixon getting in on the passing game (109 rec yards last four games), we are going to double down on his rushing total of 85.5 and his total yards of 105.5 in a plus-matchup against a team that can’t wait for the off-season.


LAST MAN STANDING

We backed the wrong Philadelphia Eagles tight end last week as it was Dallas Goedert and not Zach Ertz (injured) that went off. Even when Ertz was on the field, Carson Wentz looked Goedert’s way more often, targeting the tight end 12 times which he turned into a 9/91/1 in a must-win game.

This week, the Eagles will need a win to secure a playoff berth (or a Cowboys loss) and that path leads through the Giants in the Meadowlands. With Ertz a true game-time decision, Goedert will play an every-down role Sunday and will be the focal point of the offense, even if Ertz guts it out.

With a JV roster of wideouts, the Eagles are still throwing the ball 44.3 times a game (2nd-most) over the last three weeks and we expect Goedert to be the biggest beneficiary of the air yards. We are taking the Over on Goedert’s total on any number below 65 yards.


SHOOTING FOR A CENTURY

The Kansas City Chiefs could finish in second, third or fourth in the AFC depending on the outcome of their Week 17 match versus the Los Angeles Chargers and the winner of New England and Miami. TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions and receiving yards and sits at 94 catches on the year — six short of the century mark and back-to-back seasons with 100 catches.

The Chargers saw plenty of the K.C. TE in Week 11 as Kelce saw 10 targets which he turned into seven grabs and 92 yards and a score. Kelce’s reception total sits at 6.5 which could leave us one short if he is shooting for 100 and no more, but with K.C. needing a big game from its star pass-catcher, we are taking the Over 6.5 as Kelce has seven grabs or more in six of his last seven games.


PLAYOFF PATH: OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Raiders have one the lowest probability to make the playoffs, but they still have a chance. Oakland needs four games to go its way which ESPN gives a 12.8 percent chance of happening.

First and foremost, the Raiders need to take care of business and beat the Broncos in Denver as three-point dogs. The Broncos have played well at home of late, winning four of their last five — beating the Lions, Chargers, Browns and Titans. Oakland has struggled in the thin air, winning just once in seven trips to Colorado.

If the Silver and Black can squeak out a victory, they will still need the Ravens, Colts and Texans to pull out a win. After all that nonsense, they STILL need one of the Bears, Patriots, Lions or Chiefs to win. Not confusing at all.

Looking at the first four games, if we put those Money Lines together (OAK, BAL, IND and HOU) we get +2000 and assume one of those final four teams can pull off a victory, especially the Pats. So, if you have faith in Gruden’s troops, put your money down and you can turn $100 into $2000.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 17
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Titans (-6 ½, 44) at Texans – 4:25 PM EST
Six games into the season, Tennessee (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) sat at 2-4 and the offense was going nowhere with quarterback Marcus Mariota. A change was made to Ryan Tannehill, who jump-started the struggling offense as the Titans are 6-3 the last nine games and are one win away from clinching a Wild Card berth. Tennessee is coming off consecutive home losses to Houston and New Orleans, but the Titans have won their previous two road contests at Indianapolis and Oakland.

The Texans (10-5 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) wrapped up their second straight AFC South title in last Saturday’s 23-20 triumph at Tampa Bay as three-point favorites. Houston has a chance to move up to the third seed in the AFC playoffs if it wins on Sunday and Kansas City loses at home to Los Angeles. The Texans have won back-to-back games five times this season, but have yet to pull off a three-game winning streak. On the flip side, Houston owns a 6-2 ATS record in the underdog role, but since the Chiefs play early, if Kansas City wins then the Texans may rest starters.

Houston knocked off Tennessee in Week 15 at Nissan Stadium, 24-21 as three-point underdogs. The Texans scored a pair of second quarter touchdowns to grab a 14-0 advantage before the Titans tied the game at 14-14 in the third quarter. Houston then scored 10 unanswered points to grab the lead for good as the road team won the first time in the last seven meetings between these AFC South squads. The Titans have dropped seven consecutive visits to NRG Stadium, but Tennessee has not lost three straight games this season.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Texans 20

Eagles (-3 ½, 45) at Giants – 4:25 PM EST
Three weeks ago, Philadelphia (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) trailed New York 17-3 at halftime and were on the verge of getting knocked out of the playoffs. However, the Eagles rallied for a 23-17 overtime triumph to begin a three-game winning streak inside the NFC East. Philadelphia is on the verge of capturing the division title with a win or a Dallas loss, as the Eagles downed the Cowboys last week, 17-9 as two-point home underdogs. The Eagles have yet to cover three straight games this season, while owning a 3-5 ATS record in the favorite role.

The Giants (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) have shown some life the last two weeks of the season following a nine-game losing streak by picking up consecutive victories over the Dolphins and Redskins. Granted, the competition isn’t great, but New York outlasted Washington in overtime last Sunday, 41-35 behind five touchdown passes from rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants scored a total of 61 points during the final four contests of their long skid, but New York has posted 77 points the last two wins, while sailing OVER the total in six of the past eight games overall.

The only negative for New York heading into this matchup is the 0-4 SU/ATS record in the role of a home underdog, while losing each of these games by 14 points or more. Philadelphia has won six consecutive matchups with New York since 2016, although the Giants have covered four times in this stretch in the ‘dog role.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Giants 13

Redskins at Cowboys (-12 ½, 46) – 4:25 PM EST
It’s been a disappointing season in the Lone Star State for the Cowboys (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS), who started 3-0 but need a win plus a Philadelphia loss to win the NFC East. Dallas has dropped four of its past five games, including the 17-9 setback at Philadelphia last week to fall to 0-8 this season when scoring 24 points or less. The Cowboys have compiled a dreadful 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 in the favorite role, while laying double-digits for the first time since being listed as 22-point chalk in a Week 3 rout of Miami.

The Redskins (3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS) have been extremely competitive the last five games since getting blown out by the Jets in Week 11. Washington has covered three of the past five contests, while losing close games the last two weeks to Philadelphia and New York. The defense has yielded 78 points in the last two games after giving up 57 points in the previous three contests. The Redskins have covered in five of seven opportunities as a double-digit underdog, but the UNDER has cashed in five of those affairs.

Dallas pulled away from Washington in the first matchup back in Week 2 as six-point road favorites, 31-21. Dak Prescott threw three touchdown passes in the win for Dallas, but has posted only five touchdown tosses in the past five games overall. The Cowboys own an 8-2 record in the last 10 meetings with the Redskins, as Washington last won at AT&T Stadium in the 2015 season finale, 34-23 as three-point ‘dogs.

Best Bet: Cowboys 34, Redskins 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 45 – Saints at Panthers

This game is very meaningful for New Orleans, who can grab a first-round bye with a win and a loss by either Green Bay or San Francisco. If the Saints win and both the Packers and 49ers lose, New Orleans locks up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Carolina’s defense has been abysmal recently by allowing 29 points or more in six consecutive games. The Saints have done a solid job defensively bouncing back after yielding 25 points or more since Week 3 by giving up 18 points or less on six occasions. Also, New Orleans outlasted Carolina, 34-31 in the first matchup at the Superdome, as two of the past three meetings in Charlotte have finished UNDER the total.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Vikings are locked into the sixth playoff spot in the NFC as they will rest several key players on Sunday against the Bears, including quarterback Kirk Cousins. Chicago opened as a one-point underdog, but the Bears quickly moved to a 3 ½-point road favorite at the Westgate Superbook. Since beating Minnesota, 16-6 in Week 4 at Soldier Field, the Bears are 2-9 ATS the last 11 games, but Chicago is 3-0 against its NFC North rivals since the start of 2018.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Browns are just trying to get to the offseason after a miserable 2019 campaign. Cleveland tries to avoid its 10th loss of the season as the Browns face the rival Bengals in Cincinnati. The Bengals locked up the top pick in the 2020 draft as a win by Cincinnati doesn’t hurt them. Cincinnati has showed fight recently with four of its last five losses coming by eight points or less, while Cleveland is riding a five-game road losing streak.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

There are nine road favorites in Week 17 as these teams have fared well recently in season finales. Over the last two seasons, away chalk is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in Week 17, including a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark in 2018. Three teams (Tennessee, Chicago, and Pittsburgh) own worse records than its opponents, all who have clinched playoff berths.

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 17
Tony Mejia

Browns (-3/43) at Bengals, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Cincinnati has already clinched the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, so it is free to win this game. Andy Dalton is back under center and threw for four touchdowns and 396 yards last week against the Dolphins, so between him and RB Joe Mixon, the Bengals should be able to move the ball against Cleveland’s 20th-ranked defense. The Bengals’ defense is ranked 30th and will be hard-pressed to shut down Baker Mayfield the way they did in Week 14, where they picked him off twice in holding him to 11-for-24 passing and two picks in a 27-19 loss. Odell Beckham, Jr. is listed as questionable in a game that could wind up being Freddie Kitchens’ last as Browns head coach. I’d fire him. He’s looked incompetent. Rain will add to the fun here since it should fall throughout the contest. Wind gusts won’t be too big an issue, but it will be wet out there.

Bears (-3.5/36) at Vikings, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Coming off an embarrassing Monday night loss to the Packers, Mike Zimmer could choose to play his starters at least a quarter to get that bad taste out of their mouths entering next week’s playoffs, where they’ll open as the No. 6 seed. That’s unlikely to happen given the opponent since the Bears are very capable of frustrating an offense that just got Adam Thielen back and will be missing RBs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. QB Sean Mannion, who has one career start with the Rams under his belt and no TD passes as a pro, is likely to play all of this one in place of Kirk Cousins. Since Minnesota blew its shot and a perfect season at home last week, this won’t mean much. Chicago is expected to play its regulars, though backups will likely get their shot come second half. A first-half bet might be the way to go here.

Falcons (PK/47) at Bucs, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Jameis Winston’s rollercoaster ride of a season will culminate at home, where he’ll look to pair with Breshad Perriman to lead the Bucs to a .500 record. The Falcons are hoping to split the season series with Tampa and would tie them at 7-9 for second place in the NFC South with a victory, which would be their fourth straight and sixth over the final eight games. Head coach Dan Quinn did enough to save his job and has already been told he’d be retained, so the pressure is off here. Rain is in the forecast.

Saints (-13.5/45) at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: New Orleans is still going for a first-round bye and will not rest starters, but there’s certainly a chance that head coach Sean Payton will pull players if the result is in hand come second-half. Michael Thomas has already set the single-season record for receptions and should tack on a few more but we could end up seeing backup QB Teddy Bridgewater and other reserves down the stretch here. Carolina has dropped seven straight games and has lost two of the last three in blowout fashion. Rookie QB Will Grier struggled in his debut and will be making his first home start. He’ll at least have Christian McCaffrey to work with as the star back has already become the first RB with 100 receptions in two seasons and needs 67 yards through the air to join the 1,000-1,000 club in yards rushing and receiving, something only two other players, Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig, have ever done. Although rain could factor in here, the forecast calls for most of the heavy stuff to start after the game’s conclusion.

Jets at Bills (-1/36.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: It’s going to be rainy and gross in Buffalo, so this one should be really ugly. The Bills are already in as the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs and the Jets are looking to avoid a 10-loss season under first-year head coach Adam Gase, so it may be the visitors who are more motivated here. Le’Veon Bell looked sharp against his former team in last week’s upset of the Steelers, so we’ll see if he can sustain that momentum. Bills QB Josh Allen and the starters will play, but it remains to be seen how long head coach Sean McDermott exposes them in a meaningless contest. Look for Matt Barkley to see the bulk of the action here.

Dolphins at Patriots (-16.5/45), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: New England is looking to wrap up the No. 2 seed in the AFC and the bye that comes with it, so there’s no question it will be motivated to continue its dominance over another divisional opponent as Week 17’s heaviest favorite. RB Sony Michel appeared on the injury report with an illness but should play, while Rex Burkhead should continue to have a strong impact. Tom Brady will look to continue building chemistry with his receiving corps against Miami’s inexperienced secondary. Meanwhile, a New England defense that has allowed an NFL-low 13.2 points per game will look to frustrate Ryan Fitzpatrick and turn the 50-50 balls he’s made a living on into major mistakes. It’s set to be a beautiful day at Gillette Stadium, so inclement weather won’t factor in.

Packers (-12.5/43.5) at Lions, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This is another game where we could see Aaron Rodgers and the starters for only a half or so depending on how effective they are in putting this game away. After wrapping up the NFC North with Monday night’s romp in Minnesota, the Packers now set their sights on a 13-3 finish. Green Bay will be without backup RB Jamaal Williams, so once it is ready to give NFL rushing TD leader Aaron Jones a break, it is expected to lean on rookie Dexter Williams out of Notre Dame. Detroit starting QB David Blough has some incentive to pull off this upset since a car dealership in New Orleans has offered to hook him up with a new truck if he’s able to pull off this upset and help out the Saints.

Chargers at Chiefs (-9.5/45), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: While Andy Reid can’t be counting on the Dolphins helping his team out as they look to move up to No. 2 in the AFC, a victory here regardless of what the Patriots do will at least keep Kansas City in third place in the conference, earning them a date with a No. 6 seed likely to be weaker than the Bills. It also means the Chiefs wouldn’t fall behind the Texans and into Baltimore’s path, so even though the Patriots are the alternative, the expectation is that we’ll see the home team go all out at Arrowhead. Philip Rivers’ tenure as Chargers’ QB could be coming to an end and he’ll look to improve on a four-interception effort last time he saw Kansas City. The Chiefs’ defense has surrendered just 9.6 points over their current five-game win streak. Wind gusts should aid their cause against Rivers since we’ll see those in excess of 20 miles per hour throughout this contest.

Steelers (-1.5/37) at Ravens, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: John Harbaugh has already ruled out most of his regulars for this one with the AFC wrapped up, but that doesn’t mean the Ravens won’t go all out to try and ensure a 14-2 finish while making sure their arch nemesis doesn’t make the playoffs. It’s just going to be on Robert Griffin III, not Lamar Jackson, to try and get the job done. Pittsburgh will need the Titans to lose in order to advance to the postseason with a win here but has a great track record in Week 17 games, carrying an 11-game win streak into this one. Mike Tomlin has only lost one season finale in his head coaching career – his first. He’ll once again turn to rookie backup QB Duck Hodges, who has been disappointing of late. Paxton Lynch, the team’s newly-signed backup, could see action if Hodges struggles since Mason Rudolph was placed on IR with a shoulder injury. Rain is expected to add to the ugly factor here.

Titans at Texans (-6/44.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: If the Chiefs handle their business against L.A., Tennessee will likely not have to deal with QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins in addition to numerous other regulars. Derrick Henry is back for the Titans after sitting last week out to rest his ailing hamstring. His team is 5-0 when he tops the century mark and his presence obviously makes Ryan Tannehill a much more effective quarterback. Houston won the first meeting between these teams 23-20 in a game head coach Mike Vrabel cost his team due to stupid decisions so he needs to be on point in this one. The Texans have won 12 of 17 in the series but if they don’t need it, don’t expect to see their starters out there.

[Udog]

Derrick Henry (hamstring) was listed as a full practice participant Thursday.

Spin: With that, Henry, who sat out Week 16's loss to New Orleans -- is poised to return to action Sunday against the Texans. If the Titans win their regular-season finale, they'll advance to the playoffs, so Henry -- who's hoping a week off will do him some good -- figures to see as much work as he can handle in Week 17.

WR Odell Beckham (groin, illness) is listed as questionable because of food poisoning in the last few days, but the belief is his condition has improved enough so he can be on the field today, source said.

QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) is a true game-time decision today vs the #Rams, source said. Despite AZ promoting QB Drew Anderson, the team has not shut Murray down in Week 17 even with the injury.

One note for Sunday: The #Vikings are planning to rest their key starters and the #Texans won’t take any chances, either. Expect both to have several starters on the sidelines even if they aren’t inactive. Smart with little or nothing to play for.

Ravens’ TE Mark Andrews (ankle) and WR Marquise Brown (illness), both listed as questionable for Sunday’s game, are not expected to play vs. Pittsburgh, per sources.

Players out Sunday include Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, D.J. Moore, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Taylor Gabriel, Akiem Hicks, Jordan Wilkins, James Conner, Maurkice Pouncey, Mark Ingram, Lamar Jackson, Josh Jacobs, Jalen Ramsey, Dee Ford, Duane Brown.

VIKINGS
[QB] 12/27/2019 - Kirk Cousins is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Chicago ( Rest )
[RB] 12/27/2019 - Dalvin Cook is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs Chicago ( Shoulder )

PITTSBURGH:

[RB] 12/27/2019 - James Conner is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Baltimore ( Thigh )
[QB] 12/23/2019 - Devlin Hodges has been named the starter Sunday vs Baltimore ( None )

BALTIMORE:

[QB] 12/23/2019 - Lamar Jackson is OUT Sunday vs Pittsburgh ( Rest )
[G] 12/23/2019 - Marshal Yanda is OUT Sunday vs Pittsburgh ( Rest )
[QB] 12/23/2019 - Robert Griffin III has been named the starter Sunday vs Pittsburgh ( None )
[RB] 12/23/2019 - Mark Ingram II is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Pittsburgh ( Calf )

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 17
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 17 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 6-8-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-9
Against the Spread 6-8-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 11-4-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 145-88-1
Against the Spread 112-130-10

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 134-117-1
Against the Spread 106-136-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 126-124-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Dolphins (+17, ML +1000) at Patriots, 27-24
Jaguars (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Colts, 38-20
Bengals (+2.5, ML +120) vs. Browns, 33-23

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-14) at Panthers, 42-10
Cowboys (-12.5) vs. Redskins, 47-16
Titans (-9.5) at Texans, 35-14

Miami Not Nice

-- The Miami Dolphins headed up to Foxboro with nothing to loose, but head coach Brian Flores wanted to show mentor head coach Bill Belichick how far his team has come since an early-season beatdown in Miami. The New England Patriots headed came home from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Garden back in Week 2 with a 43-0 victory in tow, easily covering a 18-point number. As a 17-point favorite on Sunday, things didn't work out as well.

It was a costly loss for the Patriots, too, as the loss to the five-win Dolphins ended up costing them a bye. Now, the Patriots will have to play another member of the Belichick coaching tree, as Mike Vrabel will lead his Tennessee Titans into town next Saturday night for the primetime AFC Wild-Card Game battle. The Titans and Patriots didn't face each other during the regular season.

After opening the season 0-7 SU, the Dolphins finished up 5-4 SU in their final nine games, and 9-3 ATS across the final 12 games. After looking anything like an NFL-caliber team during the early going, the Dolphins showed no quick, dispelled any talk of tanking and they might have finished runner-up to the Atlanta Falcons for the unofficial 'No Quit' award.

Total Recall

-- Week 17 is usually a difficult slate of games to handicap, as so many teams elect to rest starters, either for the entire game, part of the game or they get wind of a score in another city and change their plan at the last minute.

Two teams who were not doing that gave us one of the most entertaining games of the 2019 regular season. The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks (47) had an entertaining game which started out rather defensive. There were just 13 points on the board at halftime, all for the Niners. The Seahawks fought back and came within inches of a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. They got a first and goal at the 1, but a delay of game penalty sent them backward, and they were scrambling for plays. A pass play to TE Jacob Hollister was snuffed out, literally, at the 1-inch line on fourth and goal. After a series of reviews, the Niners were award the ball with :09 left. Under bettors, and side bettors (-3.5) everywhere were screaming at NBC Sports commentator Al Michaels, as well as his cohort Cris Collinsworth, who suggested the Niners take a safety and/or run around in the end zone and take a knee. That would have flipped so many tickets. QB Jimmy Garoppolo had other ideas, rushing ahead of a QB sneak to run out the clock. Disaster averted. The game ended up a push, and San Francisco continued to cover.

The highest total on the board was the Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5). Things appeared to be headed for an easy over ticket, as the Bucs led 22-16 at halftime. However, we had a scoreless third quarter, and just six points from the Falcons in the fourth to force overtime. A field goal would have meant an 'under' result, but QB Jameis Winston was picked off by LB Deion Jones, who returned the easy pick-six for the win, and the 'over' ticket. It was a bad beat, or as big of a bad beat as the NFL card in Week 17 would offer.

The Sunday nighter was the only primetime game, and it was a push at most shops - so that's what we'll call it. For the season, the 'over' is just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead to Wild-Card Weekend

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

These teams will meet for the first time this season. Buffalo was an impressive 6-2 SU/6-1-1 ATS with the 'under' connecting in six of their eight games on the road.

For the Texans, they also rested their starters like the Bills in Week 17. Both teams are coming off of home losses, but it shouldn't affect either side. The Texans (-3, 42) are favored at home, but essentially Vegas is calling it a pick 'em, as generally the home side is given a three-point edge. The Texans ended the season a little on the banged up side, with their top skill position players battling nagging injuries. They'll have six days to rest and get ready. The 'under' was 6-3 in the final nine for Houston.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

The Titans were dominant down the stretch, looking like an NFL caliber team once QB Ryan Tannehill took the reins of the offense. Whether he is back, or the team elects to draft a quarterback, it's pretty clear the Marcus Mariota experience is over in Nashville. These teams also did not meet during the regular season. The Titans hit the 'over' in nine of their final 10 games after opening on a 5-1 'under' run. They were 5-3 ATS in the final eight road games, including 3-0 ATS with an 'over' in the final three away outings.

The Patriots (-5, 44) bring the experience into the Wild-Card Game, and they'll have a little anger after blowing a bye against the hapless Dolphins. The 'over' hit in their final three games, too.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

The Vikings pulled off the Minneapolis Miracle back on Jan. 14, 2018, when WR Stefon Diggs squirted free for a miracle touchdown on the final play to stun the Saints. Don't think the fans, and the Saints, haven't forgotten. Plus, the Saints have the bad juju from last season's pass-interference non-call against the Rams, which led to sweeping changes to the rules, allowing coaches' challenges.

These teams didn't face each other in the regular season. The Vikings were 4-2 SU/ATS in the final six road games for the Vikings. The Saints (-8, 47) roll in with three straight wins and covers to lock up a home game in the first round, and they're 11-3 ATS across the past 14 games overall.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

The only wild-card matchup which saw the teams meet in the regular season is this game. A costly loss at home to the 49ers cost the Seahawks a home playoff game, and now they must go cross-country to meet the four-seed Eagles. Seattle won 17-9 back on Nov. 24 after a bye, easily hitting the 'under' as 1.5-point favorites. They'll enter in a similar spot, favored by one with a total of 46.

[Udog]

AFC Wild Card Notes

Buffalo at Houston

Saturday, Jan. 4 (ESPN-ABC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Bills Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-0-2 ATS
Texans Home Record: 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS

Opening Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Houston -3 with a total of 39 ½. The overnight line has held steady while the total was pushed up to 41 ½.

Head-to-Head

Buffalo and Houston did not meet this season, as the Texans defeated the Bills, 20-13 at NRG Stadium in 2018, but failed to cash as 10-point favorites. Buffalo has dropped four of the past five meetings with Houston dating back to 2009, with three of those losses coming in the Lone Star State. These teams are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time as the last time Buffalo faced a Houston franchise in the postseason, it was the Oilers who blew a 35-3 advantage in a stunning 41-38 overtime defeat to the Bills in 1992. But the Oilers are now the Titans, so that doesn’t apply for this matchup.

Playoff Notes

Houston has claimed the AFC South title six times in the last nine seasons, as the Texans are 3-2 all-time in the Wild Card round. All five of those games have been played at home, but the Texans lost to the Colts last season in the opening round, 21-7. Houston has never reached an AFC Championship in its short history, but have scored 7 points total in its two losses in the Wild Card round in 2015 and 2018.

The Bills last won a playoff game in 1995 against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round, while their previous postseason appearance came in a 10-3 setback at Jacksonville in 2017. Buffalo captured four straight AFC titles from 1990-1993, but are 1-5 in the playoffs in the last 25 seasons.

Total Notes

The Bills were one of the top ‘under’ teams in the league this season by cashing the ‘under’ in 12 of 16 games. Buffalo yielded 17 points or fewer 10 times, including five times on the road. In all five opportunities as an away underdog, the Bills tallied 17 points or fewer, with its highest output in this role coming against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in a 26-15 triumph.

The Texans were a streaky team in the totals department this season. After eclipsing the ‘over’ in the season opener at New Orleans, Houston hit three consecutive ‘unders,’ followed by three straight ‘overs’, then four ‘unders’ in a row. The ‘over’ went 4-4 at NRG Stadium, although they finished the season with three consecutive ‘overs’ at home. Houston topped the 30-point mark only twice this season and not since a Week 5 victory at Kansas City, 31-24.


Tennessee at New England

Saturday, Jan. 4 (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Patriots Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS

Opening Odds

The SuperBook sent out New England -5 ½ and that opener has held overnight but the total has gone from 41 ½ to 43 ½.

Head-to-Head

The two teams did not meet this season as the Titans rolled the Patriots in Nashville, 34-10 as 6 ½-point home underdogs in 2018. That loss snapped a seven-game winning streak by New England over Tennessee dating back to 2003. The Titans have never won in Foxborough since relocating to Tennessee in 1997, with each of the past three losses coming by double-digits.

Playoff Notes

The Titans are back in the postseason for the first time since 2017 when they rallied to stun the Chiefs in the Wild Card round, 22-21. Tennessee was knocked out by New England in the divisional playoffs, 35-14 at Gillette Stadium, but the Titans own a 3-1 record in the Wild Card round since moving to Nashville from Houston.

For the first time since 2009, the Patriots are playing the first weekend of the playoffs after owning the bye for nine straight years. New England has won its first playoff game in each of the last eight seasons, while representing the AFC in the Super Bowl in four of the last five seasons. The Patriots are 9-0 in their last nine home playoff contests with the last loss coming to the Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship.

Total Notes

The Titans started the season on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ with Marcus Mariota as its starting quarterback. However, since Ryan Tannehill has taken control of this offense, the ‘over’ has cashed in nine of 10 games, including all four games played away from Nissan Stadium. In seven of Tannehill’s 10 starts, the Titans have scored 27 points or more, while allowing 21 points or fewer in three straight road contests.

The Patriots hit the ‘under in eight of the first 11 games of the season, but the ‘over’ has come through in four of the final five contests. The ‘over’ went 4-4 in eight games at Gillette Stadium, while giving up 17 points or less in six home contests before yielding 27 points to the Dolphins in the season finale. The offense posted 30 points or more in each of their first three home wins, but failed to put up more than 27 points in any of their last five contests at Foxborough.