The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not Report - Week 4
Matt Blunt

Last week's trends that were outlined provided mixed results, as those teams on the 'Hot' side of the equation went 2-4 ATS in the end, but the ATS results in the Dallas, Houston, and Tennessee games could have been a lot different that would have helped out that Week 3 trend further.

Fading the 2-0 ATS teams on the road ended up going 2-1 ATS, but it got the benefit of being on the right side of that late call in the Buffalo Bills game that saw the home team leave the building with the SU and ATS victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

Those are lines of thought that should be kept in mind for next season though, as the 2-0 and 0-2 angles will be brought up once again.

This week's piece looks to build upon that from both the immediate future this week, and the futures market down the road.

Who's Hot

NFL teams that are 0-3 ATS entering Week 4 are 6-1 SU as favorites (5-1 SU as home favorites) the past five years.

Thanks to how well backing those 0-2 ATS teams in Week 3 of the season has worked the past few years, we don't always get many 0-3 ATS teams coming into Week 4.

But this year we've got five of them, and four of the five are suiting up at home this week.

Who do you Follow?

Titans
Eagles
Jets
Texans
Cowboys

Now that Week 4 outright run by 0-3 teams does omit the Chargers victory in Miami a season ago given that both sides were 0-3 ATS that day and someone had to win, but that's still quite the record for these teams that haven't come close to market expectation so to speak.

I mean, we do have the anomaly of Tennessee being 3-0 SU and 0-3 ATS which is something that I'll touch on later, but being 0-3 ATS generally means your team is sitting with a losing record after three weeks and desperately needs the win to keep their season alive.

A 3-3-1 ATS record in those seven games makes laying the points a little trickier – especially if there are some of those nasty hooks around, but this 6-1 SU mark for favorites that have yet to cover a point spread begs the question;

How attractive does a Houston ML – Dallas ML parlay look to you this week?

Obviously a parlay isn't needed in the end, but with the Cowboys laying -4.5 at home vs Cleveland, and Houston laying -4 at home vs Minnesota, they are the only two 0-3 ATS teams that come into Week 3 as favorites.

Underdogs in this role in Week 4 are 6-2 ATS over that same five-year span with four outright winners in those games, so be on the look out for the Jets (+2) on TNF, Tennessee (+3) at home vs Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia +7 visiting San Francisco as well.

Who's Not

No NFL team that has started a year 0-3 ATS has gone on to make the Super Bowl that season the past five years.

It was in this piece after Week 1 that I brought up the idea about drastically eliminating nearly half of the Super Bowl futures market based on those teams starting 0-1 SU. Only eight of 36 had done it, and half were New England where you knew they still had a division title locked up and at least one home playoff game.

Well, you can trim down that futures list even further if you want with these 0-3 ATS teams, as none of them have gone on to make the Super Bowl that season.

Again, not too surprising given that most 0-3 ATS teams are going to likely be 1-2 SU at best more often than not, but this year we do have the Tennessee Titans as the lone team to be 1-0 SU after Week 1 and 0-3 ATS after three weeks, so sorry Titans fans, might be time to rip up those Super Bowl futures. I wouldn't whole heartedly buy into that, but three wins by a grand total of six points is really hard to do. Kicking issues made that Week 1 score closer then it needed to be, but with the Titans now the first NFL team dealing with a virus issue, who knows how derailed their season could get here.

Obviously no need to actually rip any futures ticket up yet, but I wouldn't be going to invest in the Titans right now.

This no Super Bowl trips for 0-3 ATS teams does bring another layer to the interesting dilemma in the NFC East between the Cowboys and Eagles. At least on one side of the ball there are huge concerns for both teams, and yet, with what Washington and the Giants look like this year, it's still highly likely that one of the Cowboys or Eagles ends up on that New England path of starting out 0-1 SU and trying to make a Super Bowl.

But the Pats never started out a season 0-3 ATS in any of the seasons starting with the 2014-15 season that saw them make a Super Bowl, a year they did start out 0-1 SU and win it all.

Right now, Dallas is sitting in the +1800 range to win it all right now with Philly further back around +5000. Those are two tickets I think you really want no part of right now as Dallas has to find a defense, and Philly's got to find or fix numerous things on offense.

Both sides may end up bringing a bit more hope after this week if the Week 4 history of 0-3 ATS teams winning outright being on a 10-5 SU run continues for them specifically, but outside of being the side to outlast whatever brand of football the NFC East ends up being this year, it may actually be time to rip up other futures on these two squads.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 1 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 1

DENVER at NY JETS

Broncos on 20-8 “under” run since mid 2018 (11-8 “under” for Fangio).
Denver also 5-2 last 7 vs. points away.
Jets 0-3 SU and vs. line in 2020.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Broncos, based on extended “totals” and team trends.


Sunday, Oct. 4

INDIANAPOLIS at CHICAGO

Bears on 6-14 spread skid since late 2018, but they’re 3-0 SU and 2-1 vs. line early in 2020.
Chicago also on 18-8 “under” run since mid 2018.
Bears 2-4 as underdog since 2019 after covering 4 of preceding 5 in role.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT

After covering last seven as visitor in 2019, Saints dropped first road game this season (at Raiders).
New Orleans also on 8-2 “over” run since late 2019.
Lions also “over” 13-6 since 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

ARIZONA at CAROLINA

Kliff Kingsbury 12-6-1 vs. spread since taking over Cards in 2019.
Panthers won at Chargers last week but on 2-8-1 spread skid since mid 2019.
Carolina 0-4-1 last five vs. points at Charlotte.
Panthers also “over” 7-1 last eight home since mid-2019 (2-1 “over” for Rhule).

Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and totals” trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI

Jags have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 as 'dog.
If Bengals chalk note 1-5 mark last six in role since early 2018.
Cincy also “over” 5-2 last seven since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Jags, based on “totals” and team trends.

CLEVELAND at DALLAS

Browns 6-12-1 vs. line since 2019 (1-2 early this season for Stefanski).
Also, no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 as an underdog.
Cowboys “over” 6-3 last nine at Arlington, also just 3-8 last 11 overall as chalk.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at HOUSTON

Vikes “over” 8-3 last 11 in reg season.
Texans just 3-6-1 last ten as chalk.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at MIAMI

Hawks 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine on reg-season road.
Also on 17-8 “over” run since late 2018.
After Jags win, Dolphins now 11-4 last 15 as 'dog.
Miami also “over” 7-3 last 10 since mid 2018 (though 1-2 “under” to begin 2020).

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

LA CHARGERS at TAMPA BAY

Bolts only 3-7-1 last 11 vs. spread away (0-0-1 this season).
Bruce Arians Cards and Bucs teams “over” 29-13 their last 42 games.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and recent trends.

PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE

Steel was 5-0-1 its last six as a 'dog in 2019 minus Big Ben, Tomlin now 10-1-1 as 'dog since 2018.
Pitt also “under” 14-6 last 20 since late 2018.
Titans 1-4 last five as chalk and 0-3 vs. line in 2020 9though 3-0 SU!).

Tech Edge: Steelers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at WASHINGTON

Into Monday vs. Chiefs, Ravens had won last 14 SU in reg season and were 11-1 vs. number last 12 reg season games before loss to Chiefs.
Wash only 7-13 last 20 on board since late 2018 (spanning three coaches).

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

NY GIANTS at LA RAMS

G-Men covered at Bears, now 11-3 as visiting 'dog since 2018.
Rams were only 2-3 as home chalk LY and yet to be favored in 2020.

Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY

Belichick barely failed as underdog at Seattle but still 13-4 as 'dog since 2010.
Chiefs have covered last three reg.-season meetings.
After Monday at Baltimore, KC 12-0 SU, 11-1 vs. line last 11 since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on Belichick underdog trends.

BUFFALO at LAS VEGAS

Bills 8-2-2 vs. spread as reg season visitor since mid 2018.
Note Buffalo “over” first three in 2020 after 13-4 “under” mark last season.
Raiders also “over” first three in 2020 after 6-1 “unders” to close 2019.

Tech Edge: Bills and “over,” based on team and recent “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO

Birds 3-8 vs. line last 10 since mid 2019, also only 4-6 as underdog since 2018.
Philly also “over” 7-1 last 8 away.
Niners “over” 5-2 last seven reg season at Santa Clara.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


Monday, Oct. 5

ATLANTA at GREEN BAY

Falcons 8-4 vs. line since mid 2019 (1-1 in 2020), also “over” 3 in a row.
Pack “over” last five since late 2019 and 5-1 last six vs. points at Lambeau.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Close Calls - Week 3
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games.

Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 3 of the NFL regular season.

Patriots (-7) 36 Raiders 20 (47)

After falling just short in Week 2, the Patriots were caught in a tight game in the first half leading by three after both teams put together touchdowns in the final minute of the 2nd quarter.

While those points spoiled a spectacular ‘under’ pace, only 10 points were added in the third and the Raiders could only muster a field goal after a long drive into the fourth quarter putting the scoring at 36.

New England would go 86 yards and burn more than six minutes before effectively clinching the win with a 29-13 advantage. A penalty on the kickoff return would pin the Raiders deep and they fumbled on first down, taken in for a Patriots touchdown to seal the ‘over’ as well. The Raiders would add a late touchdown as well for 56 points including 20 in the final 5:17 of game clock.

Bills (-2) 35 Rams (46½)

The ultimate ‘under’ team last season the Bills have changed course this season and scored three touchdowns in the first half for the early edge vs. the Rams.

Buffalo scored first after the break as well to take a 28-3 edge, a now an infamous score in recent NFL history. The Rams would do their best impression of Buffalo’s AFC East rival putting four consecutive touchdowns together, the last of which came on a short field after an Aaron Donald sack and fumble recovery against Josh Allen.

The following touchdown came with 4:30 to go putting the Rams ahead 35-32 with a remarkable comeback completed. Allen would convert a 3rd-and-22 and moved Buffalo into the red zone however. The rising MVP candidate would then take his second big penalty in the game with a face mask call pushing the Bills back to the 30-yard line and eventually facing 4th-and-8 with 25 seconds to go.

Allen and the Bills were bailed out with a tough pass interference call on the Rams and Buffalo connected for the game-winning touchdown and spread covering extra-point with 15 seconds to go.

Steelers (-3½) 28 Texans 21 (46½)

The Texans seemed to be in control of this game up 14-3 and the Steelers were facing 3rd-and-goal from the 10-yard-line after an intentional grounding call. Ben Roethlisberger would deliver the touchdown pass to get the Steelers back within four and both teams would add another touchdown before halftime for a surprisingly high scoring first half.

Pittsburgh would climb within one with a field goal out of the break before four straight punts were exchanged without a single first down. Early in the fourth quarter still leading by one Houston was across midfield, but Deshaun Watson wound up intercepted at the 13-yard-line. Pittsburgh converted a pair of third downs and marched down the field for a seven-minute drive to take the lead.

Up five Pittsburgh went for two and succeeded and Houston’s next possession featured a sack and a false start to leave 3rd-and-26. After picking up more than half that yardage Houston surprisingly punted, and never saw the ball again.

49ers (-3) 36 N.Y. Giants 9 (43½)

This game was closer than the final score and nearly 2-to-1 production edges indicate. It was 6-6 until 67 seconds to go before halftime as the 49ers would score 10 points before the break, making the most of an interception.

The Giants scored out of the break to cut the score to 16-9 after a field goal on a lengthy drive and the ‘under’ pace seemed secure. San Francisco would score a pair of touchdowns over the next five minutes to seal the outcome leading 29-9 early in the fourth quarter.

Nick Mullens and Jeff Wilson would star on a 92-yard touchdown drive culminating in a touchdown to push the total ‘over’ with just over three minutes to go.

Titans (-2½) 31 Vikings 30 (43½)

While both teams moved the ball successfully the scoring was mostly limited to field goals early in this game with a 17-12 Vikings edge nearly midway through the third quarter. Minnesota appeared to break the game open with a 71-yard touchdown for rookie Justin Jefferson but the Titans would score a pair of touchdowns in the final four minutes of the third quarter to secure the ‘over’ and put Tennessee in front by one, missing on the two-point attempt. Minnesota would score early in the fourth to lead by five, also unable to get the conversion.

The struggling Minnesota defense would hold on the next Titans drive, with Tennessee opting for and getting a 54-yard field goal to trail by two, keeping both spread outcomes in play for the final six minutes. Minnesota had two penalties and was unable to put the game away on its next possession and for the third straight week the Titans delivered a late kick to go in front as Stephen Gostkowski again hit from long range.

While Minnesota remained in range to cover they seemed more of a threat to allow another score than to go back in front on a disastrous final drive that resulted in a Kirk Cousins interception on 4th-and-26 after he had earlier fumbled on the drive.

Browns (-7) 34 Washington 20 (45)

Cleveland led 17-7 at halftime but Washington would storm back in the third quarter with consecutive touchdown drives, taking a 20-17 lead into the fourth as a touchdown underdog.

After two negative drives to start the second half the Browns converted a big 3rd-and-12 at the end of the third quarter and found the end zone with 11 minutes to go to lead by four. An interception followed as Cleveland put in another touchdown three plays later putting Cleveland up 11.

Washington had its fifth turnover of the game on the next possession across midfield to spoil any chances of climbing back within the number and the Browns would add a field goal to complete a rare 2-1 start in Cleveland.

Bengals (+5½) 23 Eagles 23 (47)

After a scoreless first quarter the Eagles completed a busy second quarter with a long pass for a touchdown with 16 seconds to go before halftime to lead 13-10. The Bengals would go in front 17-16 with a touchdown late in the third quarter as the total sat at 33.

Cincinnati stalled on a pair of drives and settled for field goals to lead 23-16 but after some disastrous moments, Carson Wentz put together the tying drive in the final three minutes, scoring himself on a seven-yard scramble with 21 seconds to go.

Those on the ‘under’ seemed doomed while underdog ticket holders sweated but neither offense generated a significant scoring threat over three possessions each in overtime. On its second overtime drive the Eagles did reach the Cincinnati 43-yard-line but then had penalties on two of the next three plays as for a pair of winless teams, a tie seemed to be a favorable result.

Bears (+2½) 30 Falcons 26 (46)

After an unfathomable collapse in Week 2 the Falcons didn’t come out flat, they quickly jumped out to a 16-3 lead though the Bears were able to score before halftime to stay in the game. Mitchell Trubisky threw an interception on Chicago’s first second half possession and was replaced by Nick Foles, who also ended his first drive with an interception, though he led the Bears into scoring range.

Atlanta added 10 points in the third quarter and led 26-10, where the score remained after missing a field goal early in the fourth quarter. A Bears comeback didn’t seem possible after a 4th-and-goal touchdown was lost on replay review. Still up 16, Atlanta had a 3-and-out to give the Bears the ball back with nine minutes to go. Foles converted a 4th down in Chicago territory and the Bears would eventually find the end zone but remained down two scores with a failed conversion.

The Falcons again punted after picking up only one yard and the Bears struck quickly with a 55-yard touchdown drive in just three plays, suddenly down only three. Atlanta went backwards and handed the Bears extra yardage with a penalty on the punt as the Bears needed only 44 yards to complete the comeback, with Foles hitting Anthony Miller just after the two-minute warning.

Atlanta crossed midfield before Matt Ryan was intercepted as the Falcons managed to out-do themselves again with another 4th quarter meltdown.

Buccaneers (-6) 28 Broncos 10 (42½)

The Buccaneers jumped in front early in Denver and with a 23-3 lead late in the second quarter the outcome seemed secure. The Broncos would score in the final seconds before halftime to make it a 33-point first half as the ‘over’ also seemed inevitable.

The Buccaneers notched a safety early in the third quarter but had an illegal block on the return to give up the favorable field position. Denver would have the next scoring threat but threw an interception near midfield and the Buccaneers added three points at the end of the quarter to put the scoring at 38.

Both teams punted on fourth quarter possessions, but Denver looked like they would help those on the ‘over’ with a drive to the Tampa Bay 16-yard-line. Eventually facing 4th-and-1 the Broncos were stuffed and Tampa Bay was able run out the remaining clock to keep the total ‘under’.

Seahawks (-5½) 38 Cowboys 31 (57½)

The afternoon showcase between prominent NFC teams lived up to its billing as while Seattle seemed to have control with a 30-15 edge early in the third quarter following a Dallas fumble, the Cowboys would rally back.

Dallas touchdown drives of 94 and 89 yards put the Cowboys within two early in the fourth quarter but they were not able to tie the game going for two with still more than 13 minutes remaining. The high total was already cleared when Dallas did take the lead on a 42-yard Greg Zuerlein field goal to close a 16-play drive with Zuerlein having missed two extra-points earlier in the game. Leading by one as a healthy underdog Dallas was in a favorable position, even after Seattle converted a 4th-and-3 just across midfield.

Facing 3rd-and-3 in field goal range Dallas just needed one stop to seal the cover but Russell Wilson hit DK Metcalf for a 29-yard touchdown. To the horror of Dallas backers the Seahawks also connected on the two-point conversion to suddenly lead by seven. Dallas had moved the ball with ease the entire game and still had all three timeouts, but time was running short with the Cowboys reaching a 1st down at the Seattle 22-yard-line.

Dak Prescott was sacked on 2nd down and Dallas used its final timeout with 16 seconds to go. Prescott would break free from pressure and heave to the end zone on a broken play on 3rd down, predictably ending with an interception as Seattle again escaped with a win.

Packers (+3½) 37 Saints 30 (51½)

This was a back-and-forth game, but the critical sequence came early in the fourth quarter with a 27-27 tie. The Packers went for it on 4th-and-1 and initially were given a new set of downs, but a New Orleans challenge was successful.

With the ball and some momentum after the stop the Saints would give it right back on 2nd-and-3 near field goal range with a Taysom Hill fumble. New Orleans held the Packers to a field goal as a touchdown would still get the job done for Saints backers down three, but New Orleans was forced to punt with under seven minutes remaining.

Green Bay was in scoring range quickly but got a big 3rd down converted via penalty and eventually found the end zone at the two-minute warning to lead by 10. The Saints would add a field goal late, but Green Bay delivered Sunday night to stay on top of the NFC.

Chiefs (+3½) 34 Ravens 20 (55)

The Chiefs took command quickly Monday night but a kickoff return touchdown kept Baltimore in the game, as did a missed field goal at halftime for the Chiefs for a 27-10 advantage. The ‘over’ pace was strong at that point, but the Ravens got stops in the third quarter and only three points were added.

Early in the fourth Baltimore suddenly found itself within a score, taking advantage of a short field after the Chiefs failed on 4th-and-1. Hopes for a comeback faded quickly as the Chiefs faced only one third down on the way to another touchdown, going up by 14 and putting the scoring at 54 with still more than eight minutes remaining.

The promising ‘over’ wound up not making it there however as field goals weren’t needed and both teams wound up missing on 4th down efforts in scoring range late in the game.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack
Six interesting spreads for Week 4 college games:
— Memphis (-2.5) @ SMU
— Navy (-7) @ Air Force
— Texas Tech @ Kansas State (-2.5)
— TCU @ Texas (-11.5)
— Ole Miss @ Kentucky (-6.5)
— Auburn @ Georgia (-6.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 205,268
Please wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“We obviously take responsibility for this.You don’t like seeing this. I don’t know that it’s actually been built into our memories that you have to wear a mask. Our organization takes it very seriously.”
Las Vegas Raiders owner Mark Davis, after multiple members of the Raiders were spotted at a charity event this week not wearing a mask.

Thursday’s quiz
Which AFL team was the first team to beat an NFL team in the Super Bowl?

Wednesday’s quiz
The first Super Bowl was played in the LA Coliseum.

Tuesday’s quiz
There are two starting QB’s in the NFL whose fathers played major league baseball; Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff.


************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Sunday’s Steeler-Titans game was postponed from Sunday to either Monday or Tuesday; another Tennessee player tested positive.

Minnesota Vikings will be back in their facility Thursday; their game with Houston Sunday still appears to be a go.

12) Braves 1, Reds 0 (14) (Atlanta leads, 1-0):
— They’re not using the gimmicky man-on-2nd rule in extra innings in the playoffs.
— This was the first 0-0, extra inning playoff game since Game 6 of the 1997 ALCS between Cleveland-Baltimore.
— Freddie Freeman walked it off with a 14th-inning single.
— Cincinnati left 13 men on base, was 1-12 with RISP.

11) Pardon me for this rant, but I despise it when ESPN mikes players and talks to them while they’re in the field, 1,000 times moreso during a playoff game. Players need to concentrate; lot of the questions that are asked are mindless/inane, anyway.

If you want to talk to players, talk to them when they’re in the dugout, not on the field.

10) Astros 3, Twins 1 (Houston wins 2-0):
— Astros went 29-31 in regular season, but they advance here.
— Minnesota got only three hits; they’ve now lost 18 playoff games in a row.
— Rookie Cristian Javier tossed three scoreless innings in relief.

9) A’s 5, White Sox 3 (series 1-1):
— Oakland scored twice in first inning; Dallas Keuchel was one of only two MLB starters this season that didn’t allow a first-inning run (Dinelson Lamet was the other)
— A’s led 5-0 in 8th, then hung on for dear life. Closer Hendriks got five outs, but left with bases loaded in 9th inning- Jake Diekman retired Jose Abreu to end the game.
— Deciding Game 3 is this afternoon in Oakland.

8) One thing about social media, in this case I mean Twitter; lot of fickle people. Everyone who loses should be fired, everyone who wins is the greatest, at least until they lose again.

7) Lakers 116, Miami 98 (LA leads 1-0):
— Game was 64-48 at halftime, and got worse from there.
— LA was +18 on boards (54-36)
— Anthony Davis scored 34 points in 38:00.

6) Dodgers 4, Milwaukee 2 (LA leads 1-0)
— Milwaukee starter Suter walked five batters in 31.2 IP this year; he walked five batters in 1.2 IP here in a dismal performance. His first five batters? A double and four walks.
— In their 60 regular season games, Dodgers used 56 different lineups.

5) Tampa Bay 8, Toronto 2:
— Rays scored six runs in 2nd inning, chasing Jays’ ace Hyun-Jin Ryu
— Hunter Renfroe hit a grand slam for Tampa Bay.
— Rays advance to play division rival New York in next round.

4) St Louis 7, San Diego 4 (Cardinals lead 1-0)
— Padres are in a tough spot, with their #1-2 starters both injured.
— Cardinals scored four runs in 1st, led 6-3 after three innings.
— Rookie Dylan Carlson batted cleanup, got on base four times, scored twice.

3) Congrats to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who earlier this week won the Stanley Cup for the second time. Congrats to the NHL for executing their playoffs in two bubbles (Toronto/Edmonton) and doing it safely.

2) I really dislike the NFL’s 10:00 overtime rule: the team that kicks off is only going to get the ball once. Why not let teams play a full quarter? If you’re only going to play a 10:00 OT, why have overtime at all and have more tie games?

1) New York 10, Cleveland 9 (New York wins series 2-0)
— Indians scored four runs in 1st, then trailed 6-4/8-6, led 9-8.
— New York scored twice in ninth inning for the win.
— Cleveland pitchers issued 12 walks; hard to win that way.
— New York advances to face Tampa Bay in the next round.

[StarDust Bum]

Broncos vs. Jets Week 4 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

With the Broncos and Jets kicking off Week 4 with the Thursday Night Football game, make a note that NFL teams prior to playing on TNF this year are now 0-6 straight up (SU) and 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) the week before.

Not something specific to use for this game, but it is something to keep in mind for bettors looking at the spread or ML options on Tampa Bay and Chicago this week, as the Bucs and Bears meet in Chicago for Week 5's TNF game.

For this Broncos-Jets game, it is going to take some work to find something likeable enough to get behind either of these squads, as questions about whether both organizations are deciding on whether to tank or not start to linger.

Truthfully there hasn't been much to like from either Denver or the New York Jets this year, as this pair of 0-3 SU teams could end up being a quick reminder about the tendency for TNF games to be duds.

Betting Resources

Week 4 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Line Movements

Spread: Denver -1
Money-Line: Denver -110, NY Jets -110
Total: 39.5

2020 Betting Stats

Denver

Overall: 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Road: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U

New York

Overall: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Home: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U

Handicapping the Total

The Denver Broncos and New York Jets have each scored 14 or fewer points in two of their respective three contests so far, and only the Broncos were able to get over the 20-point plateau in the outlying game with 21 points against Pittsburgh.

Those kind of abysmal point totals can't have anyone confidently looking at the 'over' here, unless you think you'll see a few turnovers at the beginning of drives, translating into short fields and easy points.

Denver's move to Brett Rypien at quarterback is one where the front office is likely plenty comfortable living with either result. If he lights it up then maybe they've got to give him a fair shake, and if he struggles too, well, it might just hang on until Lock comes back and really makes a decision on whether or not he's going to be the guy going forward.

Not sure how you can confidently believe that Rypien's insertion into the lineup will all of a sudden have this Broncos offense constantly moving the ball other then if the thought process is that negative regarding the Jets defense. Understandable if that's the case, but still somewhat of a tough ask to ensure the Broncos offense pulls their weight for any chance of the 'over' connecting.

At the same time, the Jets offense has already shown that it stinks once again, and the strength of Denver's team is that defensive unit. The Broncos defense have held future Hall of Famers in Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady to fewer than 30 points against them in back-to-back weeks, so I'm not sure they'll even be seen facing QB Sam Darnold and this Jets attack as much of a challenge. Hard to imagine being confident in the Jets doing their part either in any 'over' selection.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 7, 2018 - New York 34 vs. Denver 16, Jets +1, Over 42.5
Dec. 10, 2017 - Denver 23 vs. New York 0, Broncos +1, Under 40.5

Handicapping the Side

If you can't trust either team to routinely move the ball down the field, I don't know how any side play can really get you all that excited. I'm not sold on Denver's decision to go with Rypien being worth about a two-point drop in the line – Denver went from -3 to -1 after the announcement – but I was also not sold on the Broncos deserving of opening up as a -3 road favorite for this game.

The fact that the Broncos were favored at all brought an initial squint with it to make sure that's what I was seeing, but based on their defense it makes sense, and paired with that low total it has got, you can easily see the expected game script this line was based around.

Doesn't mean I have to like it, nor do I have to play it. Not one result would shock me here, as either side could get blown out of the building should multiple turnovers do them in, and a close game either way where the loser couldn't execute late wouldn't be surprising at all.

It's anyone's guess as to what side comes out as the correct one in this game, and really, whether or not either side actually wants to win this game or not. Tanking in Week 4 is a little early, and no one will ever admit it, but these teams know they aren't going anywhere in 2020.

There is no alternative incentive to say “play the spoiler against a hated rival” or anything like that for either side, as it really sets up to be one of those ho-hum TNF games we are treated to a handful of times each season where it's easy to turn off by the early 3rd quarter.

You know by then that the trailing team won't have what it takes to make a run at coming back, and even still, you've then got to count on a bad offense in general to all of a sudden execute well above their mean.

Flip a coin as to which team ends up winning this game, but it's going to finish with a 20-17 score. Neither offense is good enough to sustain those 8+ play drives; they'll need to put up points consistently enough, and as long as there aren't multiple turnovers made by both sides, an ugly TNF game is probably what we get.

Key Injuries

Denver

LB Jeremiah Attaochu: Quad - Out
QB Drew Lock: Shoulder - Out
CB Davontae Harris: Hamstring - Questionable
RB Phillip Lindsay: Foot - Questionable

New York

WR Breshad Perriman: Ankle - Questionable
LB Jordan Willis: Ankle - Questionable
WR Jamison Crowder: Hamstring - Questionable
S Ashtyn Davis: Groin - Doubtful
DE John Franklin-Myers: Knee - Questionable
WR Chris Hogan: Ribs, Knee - Questionable
LB Jordan Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
OT Mekhi Becton: Shoulder - Questionable

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DEN at NYJ 08:20 PM

DEN -1.0

U 41.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/01/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........45-48-1.......48.38%.....-38.00

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Detroit

-- The Saints are 13-0-1 ATS (9.11 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 on the road coming off a game where they had a player with 100+ receiving yards


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Washington

-- The Ravens are 0-11-1 ATS (-6.42 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 and as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 24 points.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchups: Buffalo at Las Vegas

-- The Raiders are 10-0-2 OU (7.46 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 coming off a road game where Derek Carr threw at least two touchdowns.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: New England at Kansas City

-- The Chiefs are 0-11-1 OU (-8.54 ppg) since Oct 31, 2011 at home coming off a road game where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Washington

-- The Ravens are 12-0 OU (6.83 ppg) since Dec 16, 2007 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.


NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Cleveland at Dallas

-- The Browns are 11-0-1 OU (12.17 ppg) since Sep 30, 2018 coming off a game where they threw for less than 200 yards.


Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Udog]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
Micah Roberts

Over Tickets Continue to Cash

The Broncos 37-28 win at the Jets (-1) on Thursday night made away teams improve to 26-25 against the spread and underdogs also pushed their mark to 26-25 ATS. What was more important from the Week 4 opener is that Denver and New York combined for 65 points and shredded the closing total of 41.

Including that result, the 'over' has gone an incredible 30-19 (61.2%) this season.

Thursday’s game was between two winless 0-3 teams that had trouble scoring in the first three games and third-string Denver quarterback Brett Rypien was making his first career start on the road.

The amazing part about the 37-28 score is that the total of 41 was by far the lowest total of Week 4 with the remaining games having an average total of 49.7.

I’ve never seen anything like it, but there are plenty of theories why the totals are so high during the 2020 pandemic with little practice time and no pre-season games. Injuries have been a small part of the rise, the tackling has been horrendous, but the main thing is the officiating that is calling the offensive hold penalty at a much slower pace through three weeks.

It’s not just a wild 2020 coincidence. It was mandated to help the game go faster and help create more scoring, and generate more fun for the fans, and improve viewership during a tumultuous time. Or at least that’s my theory. But stats don’t lie.

Through the first three weeks, there have been 95 flags thrown for offensive holding penalties which are 59% less than 2019 at the same time.

Fifty-Something

The Pittsburgh-Tennessee game was rescheduled as up to 14 members of the Titans organization has tested positive for COVID-19.

Of the 14 remaining games, eight of the games have totals posted at 51 or over, and one of them -- the Jaguars-Bengals matchups -- is set at 49 after opening 48.

The Baltimore-Washington total initially opened at 52 but reopened Tuesday at 45.5 following the Ravens 34-20 home loss to the Chiefs on Monday night. No major injuries except for Washington playing without rookie efensive end Chase Young and another Buckeye wide receiverTerry McLaurin being 'questionable' with a thigh injury.

Public & Sharps both backing Ravens

One of the more popular bets of the week from both the betting public and sharp money has been the Baltimore Ravens which has moved past -13 and -13.5 up to -14 against the Football Team. If Washington lays down like they did late last week at Cleveland, it’s going to start the ball rolling for a rough day for the sportsbooks.

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick says their biggest public liability (parlays) rests first with the Seahawks (-6.5 at Miami), then it’s the Saints (-3.5 at Detroit), and Ravens. He says his top sharp plays of the week are the Jaguars (+3 at Cincinnati), Panthers (+3.5 vs. Arizona) and the Patriots (+7 at Kansas City).

The Patriots have been adjusted now to +7 -120, the Jaguars +2.5, and the Panthers +3 (+100).

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says their sharp play this week has been the Colts (-2.5 at Chicago), Chargers and Ravens. His public play has been all over the Chiefs, 49ers (-7 vs. Eagles), and Rams (-13 vs Giants).

Handicapping New England vs. Kansas City

The Patriots at Chiefs game is a tough game to gauge with New England head coach Bill Belichick and his newfound running game scheming a way to kill the clock and keep KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes off the field.

The Chiefs (-3) won 23-16 in New England in early December last season. The total was 49.5 for that game and this week it’s 53. It seems like a solid bet under the total, but in this 2020 climate with officials being told to stand down, or whatever they were told, betting a total under these days seems like a bad idea.

“The straight bets are dead even (Patriots-Chiefs), but most of the parlay play and teasers have the Chiefs,” William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said.

WH cheering for Cleveland

The Cowboys have remained 4.5-point home favorites against the Browns all week long, as has the total set at 56. It’s as if the entire betting world is at a crossroads with both teams and are just gingerly betting in teasers with the Browns and parlays with both sides and both over and under.

“We’re definitely going to need the Browns to cover this week,” Bogdanovich said.

Sunshine State Games Noticed

The sharp play on the Chargers against the Buccaneers needs to be preached to me because I haven’t seen much out of the Chargers to suggest that they're live 'dogs after the home loss last week to the Carolina Panthers, who were playing without running back Christian McCaffrey. Rookie Justin Herbert will again start in a matchup of the youngest QB against the oldest in Tom Brady.

Bogdanovich says the Chargers have been bet by sharp money at his books, but it doesn’t compare to the public play betting the Buccaneers. “We need the Chargers and Dolphins the most this week,” he said.

The Seahawks are one of two perfect 3-0 ATS teams (Packers the other) and they’ve been set at -6.5 all week despite the small public money adding up large. The books haven’t seen any respected money come in on them so they’re staying at -6.5, but they know they’ll eventually be at -7 and expect sharp to take it then.

Late Fade or Follow?

The Buffalo Bills have gotten the push to -3.5 after being -3 most of the week for their game at Las Vegas. The Raiders looked like the Raiders from 2019 last week with one blunder after another at New England in a humbling 36-20 loss. The Bills looked Super Bowl worthy in last week’s 35-32 thrilling win against the Rams despite nearly blowing a double-digit lead to Los Angeles.

The 49ers have beat up both New York teams at MetLife Stadium the last two weeks and are seven-point favorites against an underperforming Eagles squad, who are coming off off a 23-23 home tie against the Bengals. The total has moved up, of course, from 45 to 46.

The highest total of the week is on Monday Night Football with the Falcons-Packers matchup sitting at 57 and the Packers being a steady -7.

[Udog]

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +4.5
O 55.0
+500 +500

NO at DET 01:00 PM
DET +3.0
O 51.5
+500 +500

MIN at HOU 01:00 PM
HOU -3.5
O 52.5
+500 +500

CLE at DAL 01:00 PM
CLE +3.5
O 56.5
+500 +500

JAC at CIN 01:00 PM
JAC +1.0
O 50.0
+500 +500

BAL at WAS 01:00 PM
BAL -14.0
O 45.0
+500 +500

ARI at CAR 01:00 PM
ARI -3.0
U 52.5
+500 +500

LAC at TB 01:00 PM
LAC +7.5
U 42.5
+500 +500

NYG at LAR 04:05 PM
NYG +13.5
U 48.5
+500 +500

BUF at LV 04:25 PM
LV +3.0
O 52.5
+500 +500

IND at CHI 04:25 PM
IND -3.0
O 43.0
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE LIGHTS:


PHI at SF 08:20 PM

SF -9.5

O 45.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........56-58-1.......49.12%.....-38.00

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

NFL leaders in rushing yardage:
424— Dalvin Cook, Minn
335— Nick Chubb, Clev
319— Derrick Henry, Tenn
315— Joe Mixon, Cin
303— Aaron Jones, GB
300— Josh Jacobs, LV

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 208,025
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a football Sunday

Notes:
— New England-Kansas City game will be Monday at 7pm on CBS; Atlanta-Green Bay game moves back to 8:50pm, on ESPN.
— Sunday, there were 13 touchdowns scored before the first FG was kicked, which is unusual.

Saints 35, Detroit 29:
— Brees threw an INT on the Saints’ 1st play of the game; the next five times they had the ball: 46 plays, 359 yards, 35 points.
— New Orleans has been outscored 72-44 in 2nd half of games.
— Saints are 13-4 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.

— Detroit led 14-0 after 4:37 of this game.
— Lions are 10-25-1 under Matt Patricia; their last coach was 36-28, and he got fired.
— Detroit is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games as a home underdog.

Carolina 31, Cardinals 21:
— Murray ran ball for 78 yards, but threw for only 133 yards— Hopkins caught 7 balls, for only 41 yards.
— Arizona was outgained 444-262; Redbirds converted only 3-9 third down plays.
— Cardinals are 3-5ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.

— Carolina’s first four drives: 34 plays, 222 yards, 16 first downs, 21 points.
— Panthers won their last five games with Arizona.
— Carolina is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.

Cincinnati 33, Jaguars 25:
— Jaguars lost last three games, allowing 33-31-33 points.
— Jacksonville is 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South teams are 3-7 ATS outside their division, 1-5 on road.

— Bengals scored 30-23-33 points in their last three games.
— Cincy has only six plays of 20+ yards in its three games.
— AFC North teams are 8-2-1 ATS outside their division.

Browns 49, Dallas 38:
— On their first seven drives, Browns scored five TD’s, kicked a FG.
— Cleveland won its last three games, scoring 35-34-49 points, first time they’ve scored 30+ points three games in a row since they became a franchise in 1999.
— Browns ran ball for 307 yards, are averaging 207 ypg on ground this season.

— Dallas lost three of first four games; despite scoring 109 points in their last three games.
— Cowboys turned ball over nine times (-8) in last three games- they lost field position by 17-14-9 yards in those games.
— NFC East teams are 2-11-1 ATS outside their division, 0-5 if favored.

Vikings 31, Houston 23:
— Minnesota averaged 9.9 yards/pass attempt, had six plays of 20+ yards.
— Dalvin Cook ran 27 times for 130 yards, two TD’s.
— Minnesota won its last five games with the Texans.

— Houston lost its first four games, giving up 29 ppg.
— Texans’ first three drives: 12 plays, 16 yards, three punts.
— Houston has been outscored 55-36 in the 2nd half of games.

Seahawks 31, Miami 23
— Seattle won all four games, but they’ve given up 27.3 ppg (over 4-0).
— Seahawks have 19 touchdowns on 42 drives; they’re +5 in turnovers.
— Seattle is 7-1-4 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite.
— Seahawks won field position all four games, by 6-13-14-9 yards.

— Miami scored six times, but only one of those was a touchdown.
— Seattle wasn’t called for a penalty the whole game.
— Miami is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs NFC teams.

Tampa Bay 38, Chargers 31:
— Herbert averaged 10.3 yards/pass attempt, but Chargers are 0-3 in his starts.
— Chargers ran ball for only 46 yards, were outgained 484-324.
— LA’s four games were decided by total of 18 points.
— Chargers actually converted 20-38 on 3rd down in their three losses.

— Tampa Bay won its last three games, scoring 97 points (12 TD’s on 32 drives).
— Buccaneers’ last five drives: 30 plays, 285 yards, four TD’s, one FG
— Tampa Bay is 5-12-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite.

Ravens 31, Washington 17:
— Ravens are scoring 30.5 ppg in their 3-1 start this year
—Baltimore is outscoring teams 47-20 in 2nd half of games.
— Ravens are 7-0-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.

— Washington lost its last three games, giving up 95 points, 462 rushing yards.
— Washington has been outscored 75-24 in the first half this season.
— Redskins have converted only 18-54 (33.3%) of third down plays.

LA Rams 17, NJ Giants 9:
— Giants lost their first four games, scoring 11.8 ppg.
— Big Blue was in red zone four times, scored only nine points.
— This year, Giants have only 28 points in ten trips to red zone.
— Giants are 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.

— Rams were held to only 240 yards, but Goff hit a 55-yard TD pass to Kupp on a 3rd down play with 6:56 left, when things were getting dicey.
— LA has outscored opponents 59-23 in second half of games.
— Rams have converted 27-52 third down plays this season.

Colts 19, Chicago 11
— Indy won its last three games, allowing total of 29 points.
— Colts drove 53 yards for a TD on its first drive, didn’t score another TD all day.
— Colts have allowed only 11 plays of 20+ yards in four games.

— Indianapolis had an 11-yard edge in field position.
— Chicago threw the ball 42 times, ran ball 16 times for 28 yards.
— Bears trailed three of their four games at halftime.

Bills 30, Las Vegas 23
— Bills were +2 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards.
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 27-31-35-30 points.
— Bills converted 50%+ of their 3rd down plays in all four games.

— Raiders scored 34-34 points in their wins, 20-23 in their losses.
— Las Vegas turned ball over five times in its last two games (-4).
— All four Raider games went over the total.

Eagles 25, San Francisco 20
— Eagles were outgained 417-267, but were +2 in turnovers.
— Philly scored TD’s 0:08 apart in the 4th quarter, one on defense.
— Eagles are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Eagles won five of last six visits to San Francisco.

— 49ers yanked QB Mullens after a 4th quarter pick-6; 3rd-stringer Beathard almost pulled off an amazing comeback.
— 49ers converted 20 of last 36 third down plays.
— SF is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots (2-1) @ Kansas City (3-0)
— New England is 2-1; they scored 66 points in last two games, but lost only road game 35-30 in Seattle.
— Patriots are +4 in turnovers; they ran ball for 217-250 yards in their wins, 67 in their loss.
— Last 4+ years, New England is 2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— AFC East teams are 3-3 ATS outside their division, 2-1 at home.

— Short week for the Chiefs after their 34-20 win in Baltimore Monday.
— KC won its first three games, scoring 30.3 ppg.
— Chiefs gave up 341 YR the last two weeks, also allowed a kick return TD last week.
— KC is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.
— AFC West teams are 6-3-1 ATS outside their division, 2-1-1 if favored.

— Teams split last six series games- KC won 23-16 in Foxboro LY, after losing at home in OT in AFC title game two years ago.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

********************************


Falcons (0-3) @ Green Bay (3-0)
— Falcons are 0-3; they led 26-10 with 7:00 left last week, led 29-10 at halftime week before.
— Atlanta has been outscored 74-33 in second half of games.
— Falcons have allowed 18 plays of 20+ yards, most in the NFL.
— Atlanta is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
— NFC South teams are 3-5 ATS outside their division, 3-1 on road.

— Green Bay won its first three games, scoring 43-42-37 points.
— All three Packer games went over the total.
— Green Bay won field position all three games, by 14-8-5 yards.
— Packers covered seven of last ten games as a home favorite.
— NFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside their division.

— Home side won last six series games.
— Average total in last five series games: 64.2.
— Falcons lost last three visits to Lambeau, by 1-6-14 points.