The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

JAC at GB 01:00 PM
GB -13.5
O 47.0

HOU at CLE 01:00 PM
HOU +4.5
U 46.0

PHI at NYG 01:00 PM
PHI -4.5
U 45.0

WAS at DET 01:00 PM
WAS +2.5
O 46.0

TB at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR +6.0
O 49.5

DEN at LV 04:05 PM
LV -3.0
O 50.5

BUF at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI -3.0
O 55.5

LAC at MIA 04:05 PM
O 49.0

SEA at LAR 04:25 PM
LAR -2.5
U 55.0

SF at NO 04:25 PM
SF +10.0
O 49.5

CIN at PIT 04:25 PM
CIN +6.5
U 45.5

BAL at NE 08:20 PM
NE +7.0
U 43.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........34-40-1.....45.84%.....-50.00

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack
College conferences, home favorites/underdogs:
AAC: 11-10-1 HF, 4-6 HU
ACC: 16-13-1 HF, 12-6 HU
Big 14: 7-6 HF, 5-9 HU
Big X: 13-8-1 HF, 5-6 HU
C-USA: 4-14 HF, 3-4 HU
MAC: 2-3-1 HF, 2-4 HU
MW: 8-2 HF, 5-5 HU
Pac-12: 2-4 HF, 3-1 HU
SEC: 11-10 HF, 11-9 HU
Sun Belt: 8-9 HF, 6-2 HU

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 246,129
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I don’t know. He’s phenomenal. You know, I went out of that game last week regretting we didn’t get it to him (Hopkins) in crunch time or try to get it to [him in] crunch time. We had a good talk this week. And I’ve never been a part of one of those so still kind of at a loss for words, but what a phenomenal play.”
Cardinals’ coach Kliff Kingsbury, after DeAndre Hopkins’ game-winning TD Sunday

Monday’s quiz
In the movie Little Big League, which actor (former Law and Order star) played the manager of the Minnesota Twins who got fired by the team’s 12-year old owner?

Sunday’s quiz
Actor/pro wrestler Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson also played college football; he played on the defensive line at Miami.

Saturday’s quiz
NHL great Wayne Gretzky is golfer Dustin Johnson’s father-in-law.

**********************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a football Sunday……

Arizona 32, Buffalo 30
— Cardinals scored on a 43-yard Hail Mary with 0:02 left for the win.
— Buffalo scored on a 21-yard TD pass with 0:34 left to take a 30-26 lead.
— Arizona is one of three teams tied for first place in NFC West.
— Cardinals scored 30+ points in last five games, winning four of them.

— Hopkins had 7 catches for 107 yards, including the game-winner.
— Murray threw for 245 yards, ran for 61 more.
— Buffalo is 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Eight of their ten games went over the total.
— Spread was 2.5 or 3; Cardinals declined to kick the PAT after winning TD, since if it had been blocked and run back, game could’ve been tied.

Detroit 30, Washington 27
— Alex Smith has had 17 operations on his broken leg since he last started a game two years ago; he threw for 390 yards in this game. Tough guy.
— Detroit led 24-3 with 3:00 left in the third quarter, blew the lead.
— Washington’s last three losses are by total of 7 points.
— Washington’s last four drives: 45 plays, 300 yards, three TD’s and a FG.

— Lions’ K Prater drained a 59-yard FG at the gun for the walk-off win.
— Detroit is +6 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
— Stafford threw for 276 yards, three TD’s.
— All four Detroit home games went over the total.

Cleveland 10, Houston 7
— Texans were stopped on downs on 2-yard line in the 2nd quarter.
— Houston’s only score came with 4:59 left; they never got ball back.
— Texans are 0-6 when they score less than 27 points.
— In Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins won a game for the Cardinals with a great catch. Think the Texans could use him?

— Cleveland is 6-3, despite scoring 10 or fewer points in four games.
— Browns outgained Houston 356-243, running ball for 231 yards.
— Both teams converted 50% of their 3rd down plays, odd in a 10-7 game.
— Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last eight post-bye games.

Green Bay 24, Jaguars 20
— Jaguars lost last eight games, are 2-5 ATS in last seven
— Jaguars’ first TD came on a 91-yard punt return.
— Jaguars’ second TD came on a 16-yard drive after a Green Bayfumble.
— Robinson ran for 109 yards, only Jaguar to carry the ball in this game.

— Packers drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 9:03 left.
— Valdes-Scantling caught four balls for 149 yards, including a 78-yard TD.
— Green Bay’s first three drives: 10 plays, 47 yards, three punts.
— Five of last six Green Bay games stayed under the total.

NJ Giants 27, Philadelphia 17
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-5-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Underdogs covered seven of nine Eagle games this season.
— Philly is 2-7 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
— Eagles are 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.

— Win ends Giants’ 7-game skid against the Eagles.
— Philly was 0-9 on third down conversions.
— Giants covered six of their last seven games overall.
— QB Jones had a 34-yard TD run; Giants scored TD’s on first two drives.

Tampa Bay 46, Carolina 23:
— Game was tied 17-all at halftime.
— Bucs lost a fumble on their 2nd play of the game; they had ball nine more times, and scored five TD’s, kicked four FG’s.
— Tampa Bay outgained Carolina 544-187, ran 77 plays, Carolina 47.
— Last week, Tampa ran ball five times the whole game, for 8 yards; Jones carried ball 23 times in this game, for 192 yards.

— Carolina lost its last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg.
— Panthers lost QB Bridgewater with a knee injury late in the game.
— Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a home underdog.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 3-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

Las Vegas 37, Broncos 12:
— Denver had ball 12 times, committed five turnovers (-5).
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in seven of their last eight games.
— Broncos lost their last five visits to Oakland/LV, by 10-6-13-8-25 points.
— Home side won last eight series games.

— Raiders scored 31+ points in five of six wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas ran ball for 203 yards; Jacobs ran for 112.
— Raiders converted 19 of last 37 third down plays.
— Las Vegas covered all three of its games as a favorite TY.

Rams 23, Seahawks 16
— Seahawks drove 78 yards on their first drive, for their only TD all day.
— Seattle lost three of last four games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks gained 5.1 yards/pass attempt, their worst mark of the year.
— Seattle, Arizona and the Rams are all 6-3, tied atop the NFC West.

— Rams won all four home games, giving up 17-9-10-16 points.
— Veteran LT Whitworth tore the MCL in his knee late in game.
— LA is 10-2-1 ATS in its last thirteen post-bye games.
— Rams won five of last six series games.

Pittsburgh 36, Bengals 10
— Bengals lost four of their last five games.
— Cincy lost its last five visits to Steel City, by 8-15-3-24-26 points.
— Bengals are 0-4-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4-26 points.
— Bengals are 1-6 ATS in last seven post-bye games.

— Steelers won first nine games (7-2 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
— Roethlisberger threw for 333 yards, four TD’s.
— Steelers are 4-1 ATS as home favorites this year, winning by 5-7-9-31-26.
— Pittsburgh has a 3-game lead over Ravens/Browns in AFC North.

New Orleans 27, 49ers 13:
— 49ers outgained New Orleans 281-237, but turned ball over four times (-2)
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24+ points in their losses.
— SF ran ball 25 times for only 49 yards in this game.
— 49ers drove 75 yards for a TD on their first drive, their only TD all day.

— New Orleans won its last six games, by 6-3-3-3-35 -14points.
— Brees hurt his ribs in this game, was replaced by Jameis Winston.
— New Orleans won four of five home games, winning by 11-3-3-14 points.
— Saints are 7-2, half-game ahead of Tampa Bay in NFC South.

Miami 29, LA Chargers 21
— Dolphins won/covered their last five games, scoring 31.6 ppg.
— Miami blocked a punt on Chargers’ first drive, got ball on 1-yard line.
— Dolphins are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Miami is 6-3, in a 5-way tie for the two AFC Wild Card slots.

— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-16 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost seven of last eight games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
— Last six Charger games went over the total.
— Last three games, LA was outscored 57-39 in the second half.

New England 23, Ravens 17
— Patriots ran for 173 yards on a rainy night in Foxboro.
— WR Meyers, a high school QB, threw a TD pass in 2nd quarter.
— Ravens lost five of their last six visits to Foxboro.
— Penalties: Ravens 8-64, Patriots 3-18

— Last 12+ years, Patriots are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— This was first time in six games that New England led (13-10) at the half.
— Four of their last five home games stayed under the total.
— Ravens gained 25 yards on 13 plays in 4th quarter, when weather got a lot worse.

UCLA 34, California 10:
— Bruins outgained Cal 440-176 in this 9am local time kickoff.
— UCLA ran ball for 244 yards; Felton had 107 of those yards.
— Cal’s loss leaves Utah as the only I-A team that hasn’t played yet.

[StarDust Bum]

Vikings vs. Bears Week 10 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

As someone who does own a Vikings future for the conference, it's nice to see a bit of life injected back into that ticket, but how much life is up for debate.

Minnesota had no problem opening up as a short road favorite in Chicago this week, so it's pretty clear I'm not the only one out there that's hoping those past futures may not be done yet.

Chicago just can't score the football on anyone right now, so even on an off-day for the Vikings, can the Bears really be trusted? The spot is decent for Chicago as short home dogs, and they've had success against Minnesota in past years.

But this year's Bears team really struggles to move the ball, and the Vikings defense has been getting better.

An interesting dilemma to firmly stand on a side to say the least.

Betting Resources

Week 10 Matchup: NFC North
Venue: Soldier Field
Location: Chicago, Illinois
Date: Monday, Nov. 16, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Dalvin Cook leads the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns as the Vikings battle the Bears. (AP)

Vikings-Bears Betting Odds

Spread: Minnesota -3
Money-Line: Minnesota -160, Chicago +140
Total: 43

2020 Betting Stats

Minnesota

Overall: 3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS, 6-2 O/U
Road: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.1 (Rank 12)
Defense PPG: 29.3 (Rank 25)
Offense YPG: 382.0 (Rank 11)
Defense YPG: 412.9 (Rank 29)

Chicago

Overall: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Home: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 19.8 (Rank 29)
Defense PPG: 21.1 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 317.8 (Rank 29)
Defense YPG: 335.1 (Rank 9)

Handicapping the Total

The first thought here is that if you are landing on the Bears side or at least leaning there quite a bit, then liking the 'under' just as much should be the likely way to attack this game on the total.

More games that end with a positive result for Chicago are going to be those 20-17 type games that saw Chicago sweep the season series last year and win four in a row overall.

The scores last year were 16-6 Bears and 21-19 Bears, so if you are leaning Bears and still have issues trusting their offense, it might be worth the time to shift focus to an 'under' look.

But if you like the Vikings here the total does become much tougher. The defense has gotten loose in garbage time the last two weeks when they thankfully could afford it, but it's also helped two likely 'unders' flip late to those 'over' bettors.

Based on how last year's meetings went, Minnesota may prefer to play a faster pace to try and get the score up in the unreachable range for Chicago. But it is strength on strength when it's Cook running against Chicago's defense and a 20-17 Vikings win is always possible too.

Only one of the past eight meetings between these two had more than 45 total points scored, and six of the eight were capped at 40 points. It's much easier to pass then really sweat out an 'under' play as the better look I believe.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 29, 2019 - Chicago 21 at Minnesota 19, Vikings +5, Over 36.5
Sep. 29, 2019 - Chicago 16 vs. Minnesota 6, Bears +1, Under 38
Dec. 30, 2018 - Chicago 24 at Minnesota 10, Bears +6, Under 40.5
Nov. 18, 2018 - Chicago 25 vs. Minnesota 20, Bears -2.5, Over 44

Handicapping the Side

Passing on the total without too much of a fight does suggest I like the Vikings here and I do believe that Minnesota is the play. Some of that is seasoned in preseason beliefs of Minnesota being a far better team ten they've shown so far, as now that they've started to play well there isn't much of a reason to abandon the ship now.

But this is also about a Bears offense that has absolutely nothing that resembles any sort of identity other than one who knows how to get off the field in a hurry. Even in a game where the Vikings may not have their best stuff and/or Chicago's defense can eliminate Cook, I don't know how you can trust this Bears side to stay close enough. Minnesota has given up a garbage time TD in each of their last two wins to make those scores look closer than they were, and the Vikings would love to make it a clean run through the division.

Minnesota may have started off rough, but a win here would make it three straight division wins with Dallas, Carolina and Jacksonville all up next, and all at home for the Vikings. My Minnesota futures will have more than just a breath at that point.

The Bears are 2nd worst in the league in converting 3rd downs (32.26%), and that's just marginally better than the Jets. Against a team that's on the come up and seeing a lot of green grass ahead in ease of their schedule, the Bears likely continue to get exposed here.

In a close game I'm going to go down with Cousins, his decisions, and the talent around him over anything I can expect to confidently get from Chicago's offense. It might actually be that simple for me.

Key Injuries

Minnesota

CB Cameron Dantzler: Concussion - Questionable
TE Irv Smith Jr.: Groin - Out

Chicago

NT John Jenkins: Ankle - Out
TE Cole Kmet: Groin - Questionable
S Sherrick McManis: Hand - Out
LB Barkevious Mingo: Shoulder - Questionable
RB David Montgomery: Concussion - Out
C Sam Mustipher: Knee - Doubtful
WR Allen Robinson II: Knee - Questionable
OT Jason Spriggs: Knee - Questionable
QB Mitchell Trubisky: Shoulder - Out

Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS
Over-Under: 4-6

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at CHI 08:15 PM

CHI +3.5

O 44.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/16/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........34-42-1.....44.73%.....-61.00

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack
Interesting pointspreads for Week 11:
— Arizona @ Seattle (-3)
— Philadelphia @ Cleveland (-3.5)
— New England (-2.5) @ Houston
— Pittsburgh (-10) @ Jacksonville
— Green Bay @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
— Cincinnati @ Washington (-1.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 247,019
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I’m not going to curse every other word on the media, but he said some things. He basically told everybody to look in the mirror. Like the coaches have been preaching all week — details, leverage, assignment and winning your one-on-ones and none of us did any of that. The whole team, we all did bad. He basically cursed everybody out and said we didn’t fight hard enough, we didn’t want it more. It’s a lot of stuff he said but he basically just told everybody about themselves.”
Carolina Panthers’ CB Rasul Douglas, describing teammate LB Shaq Thompson’s criticism of the team’s play

Tuesday’s quiz
Who coached the Minnesota Vikings when they won four NFC titles but went 0-4 in the Super Bowl?

Monday’s quiz
In the movie Little Big League, Dennis Farina played the manager of the Minnesota Twins who got fired by the team’s 12-year old owner.

Sunday’s quiz
Actor/pro wrestler Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson also played college football; he played on the defensive line at Miami.

*********************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) I was remiss yesterday in my NFL write-up by not mentioning Darious Williams, and how great he played for the Rams Sunday, in their 23-16 win over Seattle. He picked off couple of passes, one in the end zone, and had a third INT (pick-6) nullified by a penalty.

Williams is a 5-9 cornerback who grew up in Jacksonville; he originally went to D-3 Marietta College in Ohio, but left after a year. He then went to UAB but at first they turned him down for a chance to walk on to the team. He made the team as a walk-on in 2014 under new head coach Bill Clark and earned a scholarship midway through the season.

UAB dropped football after that season; Williams attended Florida State College in Jacksonville and worked as a flower delivery man until UAB brought football back in June 2015, turning down several offers to transfer.

He played for the Baltimore Ravens for a while in 2018, then got picked up by the Rams, which has turned out to be a brilliant move. Part of the reason sports are cool is because athletes come from all over, from all walks of life- stories like these are inspirational.

12) Current NFC East standings:
3-5-1 Eagles
3-7 Giants
2-7 Cowboys
2-7 Washington

One of these teams is going to make the playoffs. Last time the same team won the NFC East two years in a row? The 2003-4 Eagles. Philly won this division last year.

11) South Carolina fired football coach Will Muschamp, who was 28-30 with the Gamecocks; Carolina’s defense gave up 53 ppg in their last three games, allowing 708 total yards in a loss to Ole Miss Saturday. Tough job; expectations are high- Steve Spurrier raised the bar when he went 86-49 in Columbia (44-40 in SEC play).

10) Saints’ QB Drew Brees apparently has multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung, which is why he left Sunday’s game early. Would expect a combo of Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill at QB when New Orleans hosts the Falcons this week.

9) Sounds like the entire NCAA basketball tournament will be held in one area (Indianapolis) this spring. Creative idea, a one-time only deal- lot of places they can hold games there.

8) Oklahoma City traded Chris Paul to the Suns for four players and a 1st round pick in 2022.

The 35-year old Paul will make $44.2M in 2021-22; Suns haven’t made the playoffs in 10 years, so apparently their future is now.

Paul will be playing for his 4th team in five years when the season kicks off next month.

7) Last two years, Wisconsin ran the ball for 700 yards in two games vs Michigan. Thats really an unthinkable stat for a proud program like Michigan, but that’s where they’re at.

6) Last 11 times Virginia Tech played a football game with a spread of 3 or fewer points, known as a toss-up game, the Hokies lost 10 of those 11 games. No bueno.

5) With all six MAC football games taking place Tuesday/Wednesday, there is a “salami bet”, an over/under combined points total on all six games.

Last week, the salami was 354.5; it went over, with 370 points scored.

4) If the Arizona Cardinals were to win the Super Bowl this year, they damn well better give Bill O’Brien a Super Bowl ring, for stupidly trading DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona.

3) By the time you read this, the Korean World Series will probably have started, with NC Dinos playing the Doosan Bears. Dinos have former Phillies OF Aaron Altherr, who hit 31 homers with 108 RBI this year, while mostly batting 8th. Batting 8th!?!?!?

Altherr struggled early in the year, so the Dinos dropped him in the order and then he got hot, because he was an actual major leaguer. But Korean people may be superstitious, or they didn’t want to mess with his success, but they kept him lower in the order, and they kept winning.

2) Was watching a KBO playoff game last week; bottom of first inning, leadoff hitter walks on a 3-2 pitch. Manager gets up, walks to the dugout phone, and gets a reliever to start warming up in the bullpen. After the first hitter!!!

Damn, thanks for the confidence, coach— the starter got out of the inning without giving up any runs, but managers in that league seem like they’re wound a little tight.

1) Vikings 19, Chicago 13
— Vikings are 3-0 since their bye, running ball for 182.7 ypg.
— Minnesota covered six of its last seven games.
— Vikings converted 8-15 on 3rd down; Chicago 2-11
— Vikings are 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
— Minnesota scored only 13.5 ppg in last four series games.

— Cordarelle Patterson ran 2nd half kickoff back 105 yards for a TD.
— Bears lost their last four games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Six of their last eight games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota outgained the Bears, 386-149.
— Chicago QB Foles was KO’d in last minute; looked like a back injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 10
Joe Williams

Overall Notes


The largest underdogs to win straight up

Patriots (+7, ML +270) vs. Ravens, 23-17
Giants (+4.5, ML +185) vs. Eagles, 27-17

The largest favorites to cover

Saints (-9.5) vs. 49ers, 27-13
Steelers (-7) vs. Bengals, 36-10
Buccaneers (-6) at Panthers, 46-23
Raiders (-3.5) vs. Broncos, 37-12

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Cleveland Browns (46) matchup was boring. Boring, unless you like wild weather, defense and 'under' results, that is.

The Browns posted a field goal in the first half, and they led 3-0 through three quarters against the Texans in the wind and rain along the shores of Lake Erie. It's the second consecutive low-scoring weather game in Cleveland, and neither the Week 8 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, 16-6, or Sunday's 10-7 win over the Texans will be used in the Cleveland Chamber of Commerce video.

The Browns took a 10-0 lead with a RB Nick Chubb fourth-quarter touchdown run, and Texans (+4) side bettors were feeling awful. How could an offense with QB Deshaun Watson get blanked by a Browns D which had allowed 31.6 PPG across its first seven games? Well, the Texans were eventually able to break through for the backdoor cover, as Watson struck with a TD to TE Pharaoh Brown in the closing minutes of regulation.

Browns side bettors were exhilirated late, as Chubb broke through again for a 59-yard gallop and he was headed for the end zone and a cover in the final minute. Well, that is until he elected to voluntarily step out at the Houston 1-yard line. Instead of scoring and giving the ball back to the Texans, the Browns ended up kneeling twice to run out the clock, winning 10-7. The underdog held on for the cover, and Browns side bettors were left shaking their heads.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Buffalo Bills-Arizona Cardinals (56) game will be remembered forever, as we had one of the craziest finishes in recent history. If you were a moneyline bettor for the Bills (+130), or you were holding an under ticket from earlier in the week when the total was 56.5, you were likely pulling your hair out.

The Bills struck for a 21-yard diving touchdown grab from WR Stefon Diggs from QB Josh Allen, putting the visitors up 30-26. It looked like that was going to be the game-winning play with just 34 seconds left in regulation, and the Cardinals having to drive the entire field. But there was more. Much more.

With just two seconds remaining, QB Kyler Murray evaded pressure, spun to his left and threw up a prayer to the left corner of the end zone into a sea of defenders. WR DeAndre Hopkins outjumped three white jerseys for the 43-yard miracle touchdown in what is being called the 'Hail Murray' play. The total was a push at most shops before the miracle play, but the touchdown made it an 'over' across the board.

That's not all, though. Arizona lined up for the two-point conversion, but that was to avoid a potential blocked extra point getting returned by the Bills. Instead, the Cardinals elected to take a knee. If they would have kicked the extra point, they would have pushed on the -3 line at most shops, and if they went on to covert for two, they would have covered. Crazy finish!

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part III

The Baltimore Ravens-New England Patriots (44) saw the same cold front and inclement weather which passed through Cleveland earlier in the day. We had a scoreless first quarter, but then a total of 23 points in the second quarter, and 17 in the third. There were 40 points on the board heading to the fourth, but that's when the weather picked up.

We saw zero points in the final 15 minutes, and the Ravens got the ball back in a deluge in the final minutes. QB Lamar Jackson tried to make it happen on the ground, but was forced to have to take to the air in a driving rain. It didn't work out well, and they weren't even able to get past midfield before turning it over on downs. It ended with a total of 40 points, short of the total thanks to the scoreless fourth.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the aforementioned Ravens-Patriots game.

The highest number on the board was the Bills-Cardinals game mentioned above, too. The second-highest game on the board was the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams (55.5), and the 'over' was never threated. Seattle actually showed up and played defense for once.

The first quarter started looking like it might be a track meet, totaling 17 points through 15 minutes. We also had 30 points on the board at halftime, so it was on track for an 'over'. But we saw just nine points in the second half, cashing the 'under' rather comfortably.

In the first two primetime games of Week 10, the over/under went 1-1. Thursday's game between the Indianapolis Colts-Tennessee Titans (49) saw just seven points in the fourth quarter, but that was enough in the 34-17 win for Indy, cashing the 'over'. The primetime game was the soggy Ravens-Patriots battle, with the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (43.5) battle on Monday Night Football still pending.

So far this season the under is 20-11 (64.5%) across 31 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 11

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The total for Thursday's NFC West Division showdown opened with the highest total of Week 11 at 56.5, and it quickly shot up to 57.5 in the matter of a few hours. That's likely due to Arizona hitting the 'over' in three consecutive games, going for 32, 31 and 37 in the past three games, including a 37-34 overtime win by the Cardinals on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. The Cardinals are hoisting up 29.6 PPG to rank seventh in the NFL, and they're first in total yards (425.4) and rushing yards (168.9) per game. For the Seahawks, they hit the 'under' in Week 10 in a 23-16 loss to the Rams, snapping a 3-0 'over' run.

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins have rolled to five consecutive victories, moving to 6-3 SU overall. They have not only won five in a row, but they have covered every game, too, and they're 7-1 ATS in the past eight outings. For the Broncos, they're licking their wounds after a 37-12 beatdown from the Raiders in Vegas. QB Drew Lock tossed four interceptions, as the mistake-prone Broncos dropped their third in the past four, and they're also 1-3 ATS during the span. The 'under' result on Sunday, by just one point, snapped a 3-0 'over' run for the Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Raiders have won three in a row since a 45-20 thrashing from the Buccaneers in Week 7. They have also covered those three games with the 'under' connecting in two of the outings. This will be the second battle betwen the Chiefs and Raiders this season, with the first installment going to Vegas, 40-32 in Kansas City in Week 5. That helped the Raiders win as 11-point underdogs while easily hitting the 'over'. The Chiefs are coming off its bye week. Kansas City has won four straight while covering three of the past four since that loss against the Raiders. K.C. has tossed up 33, 35, 43 and 26 in the past four outings, and they have scored 26 or more points in seven consecutive contests.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Rams make the cross-country trek to Central Florida looking to win consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 4-11, but that was against the Giants and Football Team, not terribly impressive. L.A. is coming off a 23-16 win over the Seahawks, cashing on a three-point number while the 'under' (55) easily connected. The 'under' has hit in six straight games for the Rams. L.A. hasn't covered in back-to-back games since Week 1-2. For the Bucs, they bounced back with a 46-23 stomping of the Panthers on Sunday. After tossing up a season-low three points in Week 9 against the Saints, they scored a season-high 46. That's quite the rebound.

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NFL odds Week 11: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should be rested and ready for their Week 11 Sunday night showdown against the Raiders in Las Vegas. The SuperBook opened Kansas City -6.5 and moved to -7 Sunday night.

NFL Week 10 has just one game left, while NFL Week 11 odds are on the betting board and already getting some action. The week starts strong with a Thursday night clash between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, and the Kansas City Chiefs have a revenge game Sunday night against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 11 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 11 Odds

These are the current NFL Week 11 odds, as of November 13.



Teams on bye: San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Chicago

Cardinals at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under 57.5

Why the line moved
Arizona converted a Hail Mary from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to notch a stunning 32-30 home victory over Buffalo, while a lackluster Seattle unit fell to the host Los Angeles Rams 23-16 Sunday.

"We opened Seattle -4.5 and quickly moved down to Seahawks -3.5," Murray said Sunday evening. "The move makes sense. People don’t trust the Seahawks. Their defense is no good, and even Russell Wilson has looked human the last couple of weeks. I expect very good handle on this game. This should be one of the better Thursday games of the season."

Eagles at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -3, Over/Under 45.5

Why the line moved
Philadelphia leads the NFC East, but that just makes it the least-awful team among a terrible bunch, as evidenced by its 27-17 road loss to the New York Giants on Sunday. Meanwhile, Cleveland got a much-need though unimpressive 10-7 win over Houston.

Eagles-Browns opened Cleveland -3 at The SuperBook and very briefly touched -3.5 Sunday night, before going back to -3.

"This game will be very one-sided. Nobody is looking to bet Philadelphia right now," Murray said. "The Eagles let bettors down in a big way today. This is already a lopsided ticket-count game, and I don’t expect that to change between now and next Sunday morning."

Falcons at Saints Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
Atlanta is coming off a bye week, and New Orleans probably wishes it had a bye week coming up. That's because quarterback Drew Brees suffered a rib injury and sat out the second half of the Saints' 27-17 home win over San Francisco.

Because of the Saints' uncertainty at QB, The SuperBook did not post this game Sunday night.

Lions at Panthers Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
This is another game The SuperBook is holding off on, after Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a knee injury in Sunday's 46-23 home loss to Tampa Bay. Detroit, meanwhile, squeaked by Washington 30-27 on a 59-yard Matt Prater field goal as time expired.

Patriots at Texans Odds
Opening line
Texans -2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New England stunned visiting Baltimore in the Week 10 Sunday nighter, winning 23-17 as a touchdown underdog. On the flip side, Houston mustered just one score in a 10-7 road loss to Cleveland. The SuperBook opened at Texans -2.5, and the game came off the board once the Ravens-Patriots game kicked off. The line will go back up Monday morning.

Steelers at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +10.5, Over/Under 46

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh remained perfect with a 36-10 home rout of Cincinnati, improving to 9-0 SU, and the Steelers are tied with Miami for the league's ATS lead at 7-2. Jacksonville is almost the polar opposite at 1-8 SU (4-5 ATS), but challenged Green Bay and even led in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 road loss. The Steelers-Jags line ticked down a half-point Sunday night to -10 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement on the total.

Packers at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -1, Over/Under 48.5

Why the line moved
Green Bay got all it could handle in a 24-20 home win over hapless Jacksonville, while Indianapolis topped Tennessee 34-17 in the Thursday nighter.

"This may have been the game we discussed the most. Some had Green Bay favored, others had Indianapolis favored. We talked about just opening it pick’em and seeing where the market took us," Murray said. "Ultimately, we opened the Colts -1, because we know the wiseguys are very pro-Indianapolis. They bet the Colts hard on Thursday night and they hammered the Colts a week earlier in the game they lost to Baltimore.

"The Colts are a team that gets a lot of support from sharp players. This game sets up to be a huge Pros vs. Joes type game."

The first move came a couple of hours after the line went up, with The SuperBook shifting to Colts -1.5.

Bengals at Washington Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 46

Why the line moved
Cincinnati got rolled 36-10 at Pittsburgh in Week 10, and Washington was dealt a 30-27 road loss in the waning seconds on a 59-yard Detroit field goal. Early movement showed a little more interest in Washington, which ticked to -1 Sunday night at The SuperBook. The total also adjusted a tick, from 46 to 45.5.

Titans at Ravens Odds
Opening line
Ravens -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tennessee roared out of the gate this season, winning its first five, but the Titans dropped three of four since then, including a 34-17 home setback to Indianapolis on Thursday. The Ravens had their hands more than full with the Patriots on Sunday night, losing 23-17 on the road.

"We opened the Ravens -7 and closed it when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said. "The Titans are in a freefall right now and are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Baltimore will get a lot of public play."

Cowboys at Vikings Odds
Opening line
Vikings -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Dallas is coming off a bye, while Minnesota still has Week 10 work to do in the Monday nighter at Chicago. Still, Murray and The SuperBook odds team opened the Vikings -7.5, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Chiefs at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +6.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Las Vegas rolled over Denver 37-12 Sunday, while Kansas City rested during its bye week. Playing under the Sunday night spotlight, the Chiefs seek to avenge a 40-32 home loss to the Raiders in Week 5.

"It's painful to even talk about this game when we think about how great this night would’ve been for Chiefs and Raiders fans at Allegiant Stadium," Murray said, lamenting fanless games as COVID continues to soil the 2020 season. "We opened Chiefs -6.5 and quickly moved to -7 (even). This game will be just like Ravens-Patriots. All the parlays will roll to K.C. and K.C. moneyline. The Over will be a very, very public play as well. If the favorites cover all weekend – like they did today – then the books will be big-time Raiders fans next Sunday night."

Rams at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
The Week 11 Monday nighter is a key NFC clash, and both teams are coming off wins: Los Angeles stymied Seattle 23-16, and Tampa Bay drubbed Carolina 46-23.

"We opened Bucs -4 and moved quickly to Bucs -3.5," Murray said. "We will need the Rams in this game, but how big remains to be seen. People may hesitate to bet the Bucs with both hands after their performance on Monday Night Football vs. the Giants and that Sunday Night Football disaster a week ago (against the Saints). There will be support for the Rams, too."

Dolphins at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos +3, Over/Under 44.5

Why the line moved
Miami is 3-0 SU and ATS with Tua Tagovailoa starting, including Sunday's 29-21 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Dolphins have won five in a row SU and ATS overall. The Broncos got boatraced by Las Vegas 37-12 on the road Sunday and have lost three of their last four. The number was stable at Dolphins -3 Sunday night, though the price moved from -110 to even money.

Jets at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers -9.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
New York (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS) found a way to not lose in Week 10 – by having a bye. Los Angeles has got to be the hardest-luck team in the league, sitting at 2-7, with all seven losses coming in one-score games. The SuperBook opened the Chargers -9.5 and didn't move Sunday night.

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NFL betting tips for Week 11: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa is getting plenty of help from his team, with the Miami defense and special teams making huge plays since he took over the starting job.

Due to the expanded postseason, NFL teams with just a whiff of the playoffs can hold their motivation much further into the schedule than past years.

But as teams reveal themselves as either contenders or pretenders, it will still be vital to get the best of the weekly NFL spreads. It’s a tried and true NFL betting strategy.

These are our NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now, and the ones you should bet later.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Denver Broncos: Bet Now

This spread is already popping up to a field goal with most books dealing the red-hot Dolphins -2.5 (-115). Miami is coming off an impressive victory over the Chargers in Week 10, picking up its fifth straight dub and winning six of its past seven contests, all while posting a 6-1 ATS mark.

Climbing the mountain to take on the Broncos is always a tough task. However, everything seems to be clicking with the Fins. From defense to special teams to Tua Tagovailoa: Miami is a sound machine that would make Gloria Estefan proud.

Denver is gushing points on defense, watching its last four opponents post an average tally of 36 points per outing. Quarterback Drew Lock threw four interceptions in the loss to Las Vegas on Sunday and takes on a dangerous Miami stop unit that’s cashing in on turnovers. If you like the Dolphins in Denver, get them below a field goal now.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Cleveland Browns: Bet Later

If you’re looking to bet the Eagles – and I don’t know why you would be – wait it out in Week 11. Philadelphia opened +3 for this battle with the Browns and books are dealing Cleveland -3 (-120) or have already jumped to -3.5.

The Eagles are coming off a bad loss in East Rutherford as 4.5-point favorites visiting the Giants. Philadelphia sputtered on offense again and has averaged just under 21 points per game over the past three contests.

As bad as that is, the Browns attack is even worse. Cleveland has a grand total of 16 points in its last two games, including a 10-7 stinker of a win against Houston in Week 10. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been miserable in those outings, completing 24 of his 45 total passes for a collective 254 yards and zero touchdowns. You could say Baker is sleepwalking out there, but it seems he’s getting plenty of Z’s on the sideline.

If you’re betting against the Browns in Week 11, wait it out and make sure you get Philly +3.5 (or more) before kickoff.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 46): Bet Now

The Steelers hit the road for the fourth time in the past five games when they go to Jacksonville in Week 11. Pittsburgh can pile up the points but it does see a downtick in production when away from Heinz Field. On the season, the Steelers are averaging 32.5 points at home—compared to only 26.2 on the road.

Thankfully, when the offense drags its toes (and not in that cool Santonio Holmes kind of way) the Pittsburgh defense picks up the slack. In fact, the Steel Curtain has been heavy since Week 6, allowing an average of just 16.8 points against in those five games.

Enter the Jaguars and rookie passer Jake Luton, who’s played pretty well in two pro starts but is far from blowing the doors off opponents. Jacksonville has totaled 25 and 14 points on offense in the past two games while facing defenses ranked near the backend of the league in DVOA. Pittsburgh is among the stingiest stop units in the land and near the top of the NFL in that metric. Take the Under before this creeps to the key number of 45.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (Under 49): Bet Later

This total opened at 49 points and is starting to climb higher, with some 49.5 totals on the board as of Sunday night. If you’re leaning Under in this non-conference clash, pump the breaks and see if this Over/Under ticks toward 50 points before clicking submit.

The Packers are coming off a bad showing at home to the Jaguars, managing only 24 points and failing to cover as 13.5-point favorites. Green Bay has been spotty on offense and now faces a Colts stop unit that had a mini bye to prep for Aaron Rodgers after shutting down Tennessee last Thursday night.

Indianapolis ranks No. 1 in average yards allowed and has limited foes to only 19.7 points per game on the year. Granted, some of the Colts’ opponents so far were softer than a foam cheesehead, but they have checked their last three opponents (Detroit, Baltimore and Tennessee) to just 4.8 yards per play. Indy is also 1-3 Over/Under at home this year.

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NFL Week 11 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees has been sidelined for several weeks with rib fractures and a collapsed lung, sinking the Saints' spread vs. the Falcons to -4.5.

NFL Week 10 is almost entirely in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 11 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably some bad news out of New Orleans on Saints quarterback Drew Brees.

Week 11 Injuries

New Orleans Saints: The early best-case scenario is that Brees will miss two to three weeks, but it could be longer, after a Monday MRI revealed multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung. Brees didn't play the second half of Sunday's home win over San Francisco. When the news hit Monday afternoon that Brees was out and Jameis Winston in, The SuperBook at Westgate posted the Saints -4.5 for Sunday's home game against Atlanta. Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for Westgate, said Brees is worth 2-2.5 points to the spread, meaning the Saints would have been touchdown favorites against Atlanta.

Carolina Panthers: Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater apparently eluded a serious knee injury Sunday against Tampa Bay, spraining an MCL, and might be able to play this week against Detroit. However, The SuperBook is awaiting clarity on the situation before posting the Lions-Panthers line.

Detroit Lions: QB Matthew Stafford played through an injury to his right thumb in Sunday's win over Washington, but is having his thumb evaluated. The expectation is that he will play this week at Carolina. The SuperBook doesn't have the line on the board, due to the uncertain status of Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater.

Denver Broncos: QB Drew Lock, who threw four interceptions in Sunday's loss at Las Vegas, has a minor rib injury, but it's enough to make his status uncertain for Sunday's home game against Miami. Denver opened +3 at The SuperBook and moved to +3.5 Monday afternoon. The total opened at 44.5 and reached 46, then dipped to 45 Monday afternoon.

Kansas City Chiefs: Left tackle Erik Fisher and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz were put on the reserve/COVID list, as was backup left guard Martinas Rankin. They could still play this week at Las Vegas, if they clear protocols. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -6.5 and quickly went to -7, then dipped to -6 Monday afternoon before returning to the opening number.

Week 11 Weather

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: There's an 80 percent chance of daytime showers, but that tails off to 30 percent in the evening for this week's Thursday night game. However, the total was an early upward mover at The SuperBook, from 57.5 to 58.5, then ticked back to 58 Monday afternoon.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns: The early forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of rain, but as was the case in Week 10, wind could be the more noteworthy issue. Monday's prediction called for winds of 10-20 mph. That said, this total was on a speedy rise Sunday night through Monday morning, going from 45.5 to 48 at The SuperBook.

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This report will update....


321ARIZONA -322 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 54-24 ATS (27.6 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

451PHILADELPHIA -452 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after the first month of the season in the last 2 seasons.

453ATLANTA -454 NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

455DETROIT -456 CAROLINA
DETROIT is 9-28 ATS (-21.8 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

457NEW ENGLAND -458 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

459PITTSBURGH -460 JACKSONVILLE
PITTSBURGH is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after a home win in the last 3 seasons.

461GREEN BAY -462 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 25-11 ATS (12.9 Units) in home games off a road win against a division rival since 1992.

463CINCINNATI -464 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 19-5 ATS (13.5 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.

465TENNESSEE -466 BALTIMORE
TENNESSEE is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

469DALLAS -470 MINNESOTA
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against conference opponents in the current season.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

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Week 11

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