The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not Report - Super Bowl 55 Angles
Matt Blunt

Super Bowl Betting Angles

I couldn't even follow my own advice from last week's piece in waiting for the NFC Championship game to conclude before taking a piece of the Buffalo Bills last week.

Couldn't have felt worse holding a Bills ticket after Green Bay lost, knowing that last week's piece outlined how at least one #1 seed makes the Super Bowl when both make the Conference Finals.

That trend continued to 25 of 26 seasons now that it's happened, although it was one of just a thing or two mentioned last week that held true to form.

Tampa Bay got to the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-1 – only the 9th team to do so since realignment and quarterback Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were just the 2nd team in the past 10 years (2011 NYG) to make the Super Bowl after having 5+ losses after Thanksgiving, and for the 3rd time in 19 years we get a Super Bowl matchup that's a rematch from a regular season game that same season.

That's not even mentioning the big “first time” that happened with the Bucs being the first NFL team to play a Super Bowl in their own stadium. Leave it to Brady to continue being responsible for firsts though.

The Bucs still have to try and dodge the fact that 23 of the past 30 Super Bowl winners since 1990 have made the playoffs the year prior, and the fact that Super Bowl QB's who threw for more TD's than their counterpart during the regular season are 6-14 SU since 2000 and 0-5 SU the past five years.

But Tampa's here, and that's all you can ask for as a player, hoping a few breaks and bounces go your way to become a Super Bowl champion.

Brady is going to historic 10th Super Bowl this week and with a 6-3 straight up record in those previous nine Super Bowls, Brady's got to be happy he's in the NFC now, as all three of those Super Bowl losses came to NFC East teams - New York Giants (2) and Philadelphia.

That being said, there are more historical perspectives to bring up for the big game to help with the handicap, as it's hard for anyone to get where they want to be without at least a little bit of help along the way.

Even the great “Tom Brady” and his six Super Bowl rings can attest to that.

Who's Hot

Super Bowl point-spreads that have closed at -3 or -3.5 have gone 7-4-1 O/U overall and is 4-1 O/U since 2000

1974 - Steelers (-3) 16 vs. Vikings 6, Favorite-Under (33)
1978 - Steelers (-3.5) 35 vs. Cowboys 31, Favorite-Over(37)
1980 - Raiders (+3) 27 vs. Eagles 10, Underdog-Under (37.5)
1982 - Redskins (+3) 27 vs. Dolphins 17, Underdog-Over (36.5)
1983 - Raiders (+3) 38 vs. Redskins 9, Underdog-Under (48)
1984 - 49ers (-3) 38 vs. Dolphins 16, Favorite-Push (54)
1987 - Redskins (+3.5) 42 vs. Broncos 10, Underdog-Over (47)
2000 - Ravens (-3) 34 vs. Giants 7, Favorite-Over (34)
2002 - Buccaneers (+3.5) 48 vs. Raiders 23, Underdog-Over (44)
2010 - Packers (-3) 31 vs. Steelers 25, Favorite-Over (45)
2011 - Giants (+3) 21 vs. Patriots 17, Underdog-Under (53)
2016 - Patriots (-3) 34 vs. Falcons 28 (OT), Favorite-Over (57)

The point-spread result is split evenly at 6-6 ATS for favorites/underdogs in those 12 previous Super Bowls, with favorites alternating wins and losses the last eight tries dating back all the way to the Raiders beating Washington 38-9 as underdogs in 1983.

Tom Brady was involved in each of the two most recent occurrences, beating the Falcons and covering as a favorite in that wild Super Bowl a few years ago thanks to a walk-off TD in OT, but prior to that was their loss to the Giants in 2012 as a -3 point favorite.

Should that eight-game pattern of favorites and underdogs flipping each opportunity continue, the pattern for this year calls for Brady and the Bucs to hoist that Lombardi Trophy as the underdog, but that remains to be seen because in the history of the Super Bowl, SB participants that are attempting to repeat like Kansas City is have been successful in eight of 12 tries

SBLII (52) Philadelphia Eagles 41 New England Patriots 33 (Loss)
SBLI (51) New England Patriots 34 Atlanta Falcons 28

SBXLIX (49) New England Patriots 28 Seattle Seahawks 24 (Loss)
SBXLVIII (48) Seattle Seahawks 43 Denver Broncos 8

SBXXXIX (39) New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Repeat)
SBXXXVIII (38) New England Patriots 32 Carolina Panthers 29

SBXXXIII (33) Denver Broncos 34 Atlanta Falcons 19 (Repeat)
SBXXXII (32) Denver Broncos 31 Green Bay Packers 24 (Loss)
SBXXXI (31) Green Bay Packers 35 New England Patriots 21

SBXXVIII (28) Dallas Cowboys 30 Buffalo Bills 13 (Repeat)
SBXXVII (27) Dallas Cowboys 52 Buffalo Bills 17

SBXXIV (24) San Francisco 49ers 55 Denver Broncos 10 (Repeat)
SBXXIII (23) San Francisco 49ers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 16

SBXVIII (18) Los Angeles Raiders 38 Washington Redskins 9 (Loss)
SBXVII (17) Washington Redskins 27 Miami Dolphins 17

SBXIV (14) Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Los Angeles Rams 19 (Repeat)
SBXIII (13) Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Dallas Cowboys 31 (Loss) SBXII (12) Dallas Cowboys 27 Denver Broncos 10

SBX (10) Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Dallas Cowboys 17 (Repeat)
SBIX (9) Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Minnesota Vikings 6

SBVIII (8) Miami Dolphins 24 Minnesota Vikings 7 (Repeat)
SBVII (7) Miami Dolphins 14 Washington Redskins 7

SBII (2) Green Bay Packers 33 Oakland Raiders 14 (Repeat)
SBI (1) Green Bay Packers 35 Kansas City Chiefs 1

Also interesting to note that in terms of SB Most Valuable Player award, three of the seven times a running back has won came in these games that were lined at -3 or -3.5, one of which came in Tampa when Marcus Allen won it in the early 1980's.
Super Bowl MVPs in Games with Spread of -3, -3.5

1974 RB Franco Harris
1978 QB Terry Bradshaw
1980 QB Jim Plunkett
1982 RB John Riggins
1983 RB Marcus Allen
1984 QB Joe Montana
1987 QB Doug Williams
2000 LB Ray Lewis
2002 CB Dexter Jackson
2010 QB Aaron Rodgers
2011 QB Eli Manning
2016 QB Tom Brady

Both KC and Tampa Bay tend to prefer the running back by committee approach this year and it will be hard for any of those names to even get enough plays called for them to have a big enough impact in the SB MVP race.

But there are some juicy MVP odds out there on some of those guys, and if there ever was a time to go a little off the beaten path of “Superbowl MVP is always a QB”, a 25% connection rate (RB's have won 3 times in 12 SB games lined -3/-3.5) on a RB winning the award in this specific point-spread situation may not be a horrible idea.

Getting back to the strong run of 'overs' in these Super Bowls though, these title games with spreads of a FG have seen an average of 49 points per game scored throughout its entire history, but in four occasions since realignment, that number bumps up to 56.25 points per game (4 games), with only Brady's second loss to the New York Giants coming in below 56 total points in those four games.

Even counting the Super Bowls in the 70's and early 80's when lined NFL totals never got out of the 30's, of the 12 Super Bowls in this spread range, half of them (6) have finished with 50+ points in them, with three of those hitting in the 60's.

Given that the total for this Buccaneers/Chiefs game has spent most of the early time this week floating around at 56 or 56.5, the number is basically right on the average for these -3 lined Super Bowls.

What that does to this O/U run remains to be seen, but if you needed another reason to expect to see plenty of points in Super Bowl 55, the historical angle with this point-spread is there for more support.

Who's Not

“Under” bettors in 2020 NFL games that closed with a -3/-3.5 point spread went 23-35-3 against the number

2020-21 NFL Results (Odds of -3, -3.5)

There have been seven games this season where a team was favored by -3 or -3.5 and they won straight up but failed to cover the spread or it ended as a push (tie), which translates into a win-cover percentage for favorites (-3,-3.5) at 81.8% this season.

Just something to thinking about if you're waiting for a so-called "better number" for Super Bowl 55.

Favorites-Underdogs (SU): 34-27
Favorites-Underdogs (ATS): 27-33-1
Over-Under: 35-23-3

Obviously another way to say that there is even more recent support for 'over' action in this Super Bowl than just the past Super Bowls with spreads of a FG, as 61 different NFL games this year closed in that range, and the 'over' cashed at a 57.3% clip. “Insert chart with 2020 games -3/-3.5 (Sheet 1 on spreadsheet with all 3/3.5 games)”

Interestingly enough, the O/U record for Kansas City in those games this year was 2-1-1 O/U after last week's 'over' against Buffalo cashed.

There was a push on 54 in a 34-20 win over Baltimore, an 'over' 54 connecting on the Chiefs 32-29 win over the Saints, and most importantly the 27-24 win over this same Tampa Bay team accounting for the lone 'under' for Kansas City in that regard.

Hard also not to make note of the fact that Kansas City went 4-0 SU in all those games as well.

On the Tampa Bay side of things, they went 1-3 O/U in games that closed with them as a favorite or underdog of 3/3.5, with last week's win over Green Bay being the lone 'over' of the season.

The 'under' vs KC was already mentioned, but a 20-19 loss to Chicago when Brady forgot how many downs were left was another one of those games for Tampa this year, while that 38-3 SNF beatdown the Saints gave them in easily cashing an 'under' ticket.

Hard not to put together the fact that Tampa Bay was 1-3 SU in those games either, and had Green Bay executed better and made some better decisions throughout that game, we could be looking at an 0-4 SU record for Tampa Bay in this point-spread range this year.

One more note on this total for the Super Bowl.

As you can see in the earlier chart here, all the 2020 games that closed with a line in the -3/3.5 range and had a total of 50 or more points, went 25-12-3 O/U this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack
— Friday, someone bet $2.3M on Tampa Bay (+3.5) in Super Bowl. Seriously.
— Apparently Nolan Arenado is getting traded from Colorado to St Louis.
— Green Bay Packers fired defensive coordinator Mike Pettine.
— Illinois 80, Iowa 75— Illini outscored Iowa 14-3 on foul line.
— Daniel Murphy retired Friday, after a 12-year career; he was a .296 career hitter.
— RIP to former Temple coach John Chaney (741-312); he was at Temple for 24 years, after he had won a D-II national title at Cheyney State. Coach Chaney was 89; RIP, sir.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 433,195
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Organizationally, just want to reiterate our commitment to Deshaun Watson. He’s had a great impact on this organization, a great impact on a lot of people, great impact on this team. We look forward to the opportunity to spend more time with him here this spring once we get started. We have zero interest in trading the player.”
Texans’ GM Nick Caserio

Saturday’s quiz
When the Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 draft, what other QB did they take in the first round that year?

Friday’s quiz
Craig Morton (Dallas/Denver) was the first quarterback to start a Super Bowl for two different teams.

Thursday’s quiz
Long time ago, the Los Angeles Clippers were the Buffalo Braves.

*********************

Saturday’s List of 13: NFL teams with big QB questions for next season

13) Dallas— Dak Prescott and the Cowboys couldn’t come to an agreement on a deal last year, and had to resort to a franchise tag for 2020; if Prescott plays in 2021 under a franchise tag, he is likely to play somewhere else in 2022- would they trade him now, to avoid that scenario? If he leaves as a free agent, Dallas gets nothing in return.

In five years, Prescott is 42-27 in regular season games, 1-2 in playoff games.

— Jerry Jones is 78; he probably doesn’t want a rookie QB playing, who will take years to develop.
— Matthew Stafford went to Highland Park HS in Dallas

12) Miami— Dolphins have two QBs now; will either one be their QB in 2021?
— Player A was 4-3 as a starter LY, threw for 2,091 yards, with 13 TD’s, 8 INTs
— Player B was 6-3 as a skater LY, threw for 1,814 yards, with 11 TD’s, 5 TD’s.

Player A is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 38, the only player EVER to throw a pass for eight different NFL teams. Player B is Tua Tagovailoa, who was a rookie last year, but has shown an inability to stay healthy, in both college and the NFL.

Will either guy be the starter for Miami next fall?

11) Carolina— Panthers have the wealthiest owner in the NFL; he is worth $13B, that’s billion, with a B. Really rich people aren’t patient; Carolina is 17-31 the last three years; their QB right now is Teddy Bridgewater, who at age 28 has already started for three NFL teams (26-24).

As far as the really rich owner being impatient, Carolina is rumored to be aggressively trying to trade for Deshaun Watson, who played college ball in the ACC, at Clemson.

10) New Orleans— Saints go into the offseason expecting to be $100M over the salary cap, so they ain’t trading for any of the big name QB’s. Will they go into 2021 with Taysom Hill/Jameis Winston as their QB’s? Will they draft a QB and depend on Sean Payton to develop his skills?

Would New Orleans trade for Sam Darnold, if the Jets trade for Watson?

9) New England— Patriots went 7-9 this season, their first losing season in 20 years, and with Tom Brady playing in the Super Bowl, you figure New England will be aggressive in trying to move back up the standings in an improving AFC East.

Cam Newton ain’t the answer; he looked look his arm was shot this past season, and if he was playing ahead of Jarrett Stidham, what does that say about Stidham? Brian Hoyer figures to hang around as a backup, but who will he be backing up?

There are rumors about a trade for Marcus Mariota, who is 30-33 as an NFL starter.

8) San Francisco— Last four years, 49ers are 24-9 with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, 7-27 with anyone else. As a wise man once said, the greatest ability is “avail-ability”; if you don’t play, what good are you? Will the 49ers move on from Garoppolo?

7) Philadelphia— With the hiring of QB guru Nick Sirianni as head coach, it appears that Carson Wentz will be staying in Philly; Wentz signed a 4-year, $128M contract, which would be really cumbersome to unload. Cumbersome, but not impossible.

Problem is, they drafted Jaylen Hurts in the 2nd round last year; Hurts threw for 1,061 yards in losing three of four starts as a rookie. Coach Sirianni has his work cut out for him.

6) NJ Jets— When a team goes 2-14, there are a lot of problems, not just the QB; Sam Darnold had mono at the start of last season, and things got worse from there. Darnold is 13-25 as an NFL starter, but was 7-6 in 2019. If the Jets want to add draft picks and draft a rookie QB, trading Darnold would net them several draft picks.

Or they could keep Darnold, use the #2 pick on other positions, and keep building. Their new coach is a defensive guru; the owner is back from his stint as ambassador to Ireland, so 2021 figures to be an interesting year for the Jets.

5) Washington— They went 5-1 with Alex Smith at QB this past year, but Smith’s leg is held together with nuts/bolts, and he will be 37 in May. Highly unlikely he is ever playing 16 games in a season again, and remember, the regular season will likely increase to 17 games sometime soon. Washington needs to develop a young quarterback.

Where does Washington look for a QB? Deshaun Watson is the first domino in all of this. If Carolina gets Watson, Teddy Bridgewater could wind up playing for Washington.

Taylor Heinicke/Kyle Allen will battle for the backup job, but who will they be backing up?

4) Jacksonville— Jaguars hired Urban Meyer as their new coach, which will be interesting, seeing how he has zero NFL experience. How will he deal with losing? If the Jaguars go 9-7 next year, fans will want to throw Meyer a parade, but Meyer might have a nervous breakdown if he loses seven games in a season— he went 187-32 as a college coach.

Jaguars will likely draft Trevor Lawrence in April, then the question becomes how long before he becomes the starting QB? Teams aren’t as patient with QB’s as they used to be.

3) Indianapolis— Philip Rivers has retired to become a high school coach, where he will coach his two sons eventually (he also has 7 daughters!!!). Jacoby Brissett is the Colts’ QB right now, but Jim Irsay spoke out this week about the Colts needing a veteran presence at QB.

Speculation has centered on Matthew Stafford or Carson Wentz. Brissett is 12-20 as a starter in the NFL, for Patriots/Colts. Doesn’t sound like he’ll be starting in Indianapolis next season.

2) Detroit— Matthew Stafford will turn 33 on Super Bowl Sunday; he is 74-90-1 as a starter, has played 16 games in nine of last ten seasons. Problem is, Stafford has played 12 years in the NFL, but is 0-3 in playoff games. Detroit’s last playoff win was in 1991.

Stafford has thrown for 45,109 yards and 282 TDs, with 144 INTs; he and the Lions mutually agreed to a separation last week.

1) Houston— Wonder what it is like to turn on the TV every day and hear all the sports channels speculating about where you’ll be living next year?

If Deshaun Watson really wants to be traded, he needs to lay low for a while, so the Texans will have a little more leverage in making a deal- they’re not just going to give him away. Watson is the first domino in whaat could be a wild winter of quarterback movement in the NFL.

Watson is 28-25 in 3+ years as a starter; his job in Houston would’ve bit a lot easier last year if they hadn’t traded their best receiver, DeAndre Hopkins. He has a 4-year, $140M contract that he signed last September.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl 55 Betting Angles

Betcha Didn’t Know
Super Bowl 55 Betting Trends & Angles

Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be the 55th installment of the NFL’s big game on Sunday Feb. 7, 2021 from Tampa, Florida.

If you’re a bettor that likes to rationalize his position on a particular wager, then look no further.

The staff have uncovered 55 Super Betting Angles with hopes of helping you strengthen your thought process on all of your side, total and prop wagers on the Chiefs and Bucs.

Good Luck and enjoy!

55 Super Betting Angles

1 - There have been eight Super Bowl champions that have repeated but only 1 player to double-up on the Most Valuable Player award, which was Bart Starr of the Green Bay Packers in SBI and SBII. If Kansas City wins and you’re buying this trend, you might want to leave quarterback Patrick Mahomes (the MVP favorite) off your ticket list.

2 - The amount of Super Bowl victories (2) by teams currently in the NFC South (Buccaneers in 2002 and Saints in 2009).

3 - Tampa Bay owns a 14-5 record entering SB55 but three of the losses have come at night and that includes a 0-2 record at Raymond James Stadium.

Week 9 - Bucs 3 Saints 38
Week 11 - Bucs 24 Rams 27

4 - The Chiefs are making their fourth Super Bowl appearance. Kansas City rallied past San Francisco last February, 31-20, as the Chiefs are playing in their third different city in the Southeast in the Super Bowl (New Orleans, Miami, Tampa).

5 - This will be the fifth Super Bowl played in the city of Tampa, Florida. The AFC has gone 3-1 in the first four installments for the city that’s also known as “Cigar City”, “The Big Guava” and also “The Lightning Capital of the World.”

6 - We’ve seen six teams cover the spread in a loss as an underdog in Super Bowl history. The last club to cash in a defeat was the Arizona Cardinals in SB XLIII against Pittsburgh in Tampa in a 27-23 setback as seven-point ‘dogs.

7 - The Buccaneers are riding a seven-game winning streak heading into Super Sunday. The last NFC team to own a seven-game hot stretch going into the Super Bowl was the 2000 Giants. They lost in Tampa as three-point underdogs to the Ravens.

8 - There have only been eight back-to-back Super Bowl champions. Kansas City will be looking to become the 9th. The last team to win two straight Super Bowls was New England (2003-04), who were led by quarterback Tom Brady.

9 - The Chiefs have surrendered nine rushing touchdowns since Oct. 25. None of the nine rushing touchdowns allowed by Kansas City has been for over four yards.

10 - This is the 10th Super Bowl appearance for Tom Brady, who is seeking his seventh championship. This marks only the second time the legendary quarterback is listed as an underdog in the Super Bowl with the first coming in his debut in the 2001 upset of the Rams.

11 - Eleven times in Tom Brady’s career he has thrown at least 10 interceptions in a season. In the last six seasons Brady has thrown double-digit picks, his team won the Super Bowl only once, coming back in 2018 when the Patriots held off the Rams.

12 - This is the 12th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher. The ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in the first 11 Super Bowls involving a total of 50 or more, including last season’s 31-20 win by the Chiefs over the 49ers.

13 - There have been 13 situations where a head coach was making his debut in the Super Bowl versus a head coach with Super Bowl experience. This situation has happened in each of the last three seasons and only Philadelphia's Doug Pederson bested New England's Bill Belichick in the first-time role. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan both came up short for the Rams and 49ers respectively.

14 - In nine Super Bowl appearances, Tom Brady was installed as an underdog twice. The largest spread came in Super Bowl XXXVI in 2002, when the New England Patriots (+14) upset the St. Louis Rams 20-17. As a 'dog overall in the postseason, Brady has been a very sound investment (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS).
Brady Underdog Playoff History

2020 - Bucs (+3.5) 31 at Packers 26, Over 53
2020 - Bucs (+3) 30 at Saints 20, Under 53.5
2019 - Patriots (+3) 37 at Chiefs 31, Over 56
2015 - Patriots (+1) 28 vs. Seahawks 24, Over 47.5 (SB 49)
2014 - Patriots (+4.5) 16 at Broncos 26, Under 56.5
2007 - Patriots (+3.5) 34 at Colts 38, Over 47
2007 - Patriots (+4.5) 24 at Chargers 21, Under 46
2006 - Patriots (+3) 13 at Broncos 27, Under 45.5
2005 - Patriots (+1) 20 vs. Colts 13, Under 51
2002 - Patriots (+14) 20 vs. Rams 17, Under 53
2002 - Patriots (+8) 24 at Steelers 17, Over 36 (SB 36)

15 - In the eight games played by the Bucs from Raymond James Stadium this season, the average margin of victory was 15 points (14.9 PPG) and that included two games decided by exactly three points.

16 - Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes owns a 16-1 record in his last 17 games played away from Arrowhead Stadium dating back to the start of the 2019 season (11-6 ATS).

17 - Kansas City head coach Andy Reid owns a 17-14 career postseason record, 7-5 with the Chiefs and 10-9 during his previous tenure with Philadelphia. More importantly, he’s 6-1 with Mahomes as his QB and the lone loss came in overtime to guess who -- Tom Brady.

18 - Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady has tossed for 18 touchdowns in his nine Super Bowl appearances and he had 2-plus in six of the finales.

19 - The Buccaneers are playing in their 19th playoff game in franchise history on Sunday. Tampa Bay owns a 9-9 record in the postseason since entering the league in 1976.

20 - Tampa Bay has covered a +3.5-point spread in four straight games when getting exactly 20 first downs. One of those four games was against New Orleans in the NFC Divisional Round, and the other was on Nov. 29 against the Kansas City Chiefs.

21 - In three Super Bowl losses, Tom Brady-led offensive units were held to 21.3 points per game.

22 - Quarterbacks are getting most of the attention for both teams but the scoring defense for Tampa Bay (22.3) and Kansas City (22.4) shouldn’t be ignored, ranked 9th and 10th respectively.

23 - Tom Brady has been picked off in 23 of his 44 career playoff appearances and that includes picks in five of his nine Super Bowls.

24 - Chiefs quarterbacks have been sacked a total of 24 times this season - Patrick Mahomes (22) and Chad Henne (2) the victims.

25 - In the first 25 Super Bowls, the favorites have gone 17-8 against the spread. In the last 29, the underdogs have produced a 14-12-2 ATS mark. Super Bowl 49 between the Patriots and Seahawks closed at a pick 'em.

26 - According to the Nevada Gaming Commission, sportsbooks have posted a “profit” in 26 of the last 28 Super Bowls. The two matchups they lost on came in 1995 when San Francisco annihilated San Diego and in 2008 when the Giants upset the Patriots.

When it comes to winning money on Super Bowls, no other legal US state can come close to Nevada's track record. (VI)

27 - Bucs QB Tom Brady owns a 7-5 career record versus the Kansas City Chiefs and his offensive units have averaged 27 points per game in those 12 games.

28 - Patrick Mahomes has played against 10 NFC opponents in his young career and he’s led the Chiefs to a 8-2 record while tossing an eye-opening 28 touchdowns to four interceptions. FYI - Mahomes and KC are 4-0 against the NFC South.

29 - Mahomes had never completed at least 29 passes in a playoff game until reaching that number in this year’s AFC Championship victory over the Bills. In last season’s Super Bowl win over the 49ers, Mahomes connected on 26 passes on 42 attempts, which is a career-high in his short postseason career.

30 - Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP 30 times in history. To no one surprise, both Mahomes and Brady are the favorites to capture this prestigious honor. Mahomes hoisted the MVP trophy last February and Brady is the only four-time winner in this category.

31 - Tampa Bay has scored exactly 31 points in three of its last six games, winners in all six games.

32 - Tampa Bay has seen opponents score 32 red zone touchdowns (62.7%), which is ranked 19th. Kansas City owns the worst red zone scoring percentage in the league (74%).

33 - Tom Brady has compiled a 33-11 playoff record in his career with the Patriots and Buccaneers, including a 6-3 mark in the Super Bowl.

34 - Since 1979, there have been 34 teams that were not top seeds in their conference that made the Super Bowl. The 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ squad that beat the Raiders was one of those clubs, as Jon Gruden’s team finished at 12-4 and the second seed behind Philadelphia, who they demolished in the NFC Championship.

35 - When playing with rest, the Chiefs are averaging 35.7 PPG with Mahomes under center and Andy Reid on the sidelines.

36 - Tom Brady captured his first Super Bowl MVP in SBXXXVI (36), the first of four. He’s one of five players with multiple SB MVPs, all quarterbacks, and he’ll go to 5 and move two ahead of Joe Montana (3) in the record books.

37 - The most completions Mahomes had in a game this season came in the Week 12 win at Tampa Bay. Mahomes attempted a season-high 49 passes and connected on 37 of them, marking one of five games this season in which he completed at least 75% of his throws.

38 - Patrick Mahomes has lost four games outside of Kansas City in his career and it wasn’t for his offensive heroics as the Chiefs averaged 38.5 PPG in the defeats.

2019 - Chiefs 32 at Titans 35
2018 - Chiefs 31 at Seahawks 38
2018 - Chiefs 51 at Rams 54
2018 - Chiefs 40 at Patriots 43

39 - In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.

40 - In nine of his 53 career starts, Mahomes has helped the Chiefs score 40-plus points. Surprisingly, KC lost two of those shootouts (See 38).

41 - Six times in Super Bowl history a team has scored at least 41 points. The Eagles pulled off this feat recently in a 41-33 victory over the Patriots. It was the first time in Super Bowl history that a team scored at least 41 points and didn't win by double-digits.

42 - Tampa Bay has scored 42 red zone touchdowns this season (68.9%), which was ranked fifth in the NFL.

43 - The most passes Tom Brady has completed in the postseason was 43, which came in New England’s 34-28 overtime win in Super Bowl 51 against Atlanta.

44 - Tom Brady has played in his 44 career playoff games, compiling an insane 33-11 (.750) record. However, Brady has never won four playoff games in a single postseason in his career.

45 - The largest margin of victory in a Super Bowl was 45 points, which came in 1990 when the San Francisco 49ers blasted the Denver Broncos 55-10 in SBXXIV.

46 - In their first and only Super Bowl appearance, the Buccaneers outscored the Raiders 28-18 in the second-half of SB37. The combined 46 points were the most scored in a second-half of a finale.

47 - Buccaneers’ coach Bruce Arians has lost 47 regular season games in his career. The 47 losses were fewer than the likes of veteran coaches Bill Belichick (55) and Pete Carroll (54). We mention those two future Hall of Famers because they both won their first Super Bowl appearance with teams they did not start their NFL coaching career with - Belichick (Browns) and Carroll (Jets).

48 - Tampa Bay has only had one Super Bowl appearance (37) in franchise history and the team exploded for a 48-21 win over Oakland in 2003.

49 - From 2011 through 2019, the Buccaneers won only 49 games, compared to 95 losses. Tampa Bay didn’t make the playoffs during that nine-year stretch, as Arizona in 2008 was the last NFC team to qualify for the Super Bowl following a nine-year span of no playoff appearances.

50 - Kansas City and Tampa Bay combined for five pass plays of at least 50 yards this season. Chiefs’ wide receiver Tyreek Hill is responsible for three big plays, including a 75-yard touchdown against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s longest pass plays came courtesy of wideout Chris Godwin (52 yards) at Green Bay in the NFC title game and Mike Evans (50 yards) against Carolina in Week 2.

51 - The Chiefs (27) and Buccaneers (24) combined for 51 points in their regular season encounter on Nov. 29, 2020, which led to a winning ‘under’ (56) ticket.

52 - The combined average for total points in a game for both teams this season was 52.5. Games played inside Raymond James Stadium see an average of 52.4 points per game.

53 - When player props were released, both punters were listed with their longest gross punt at 53 ½ yards. Kansas City’s Tommy Townsend booted 14 of 52 punts this season of 54 yards of more. Tampa Bay’s Bradley Pinion posted only 10 punts of more than 54 yards in 64 tries.

54 - While some conferences like to have bragging rights, that's not the case in the Super Bowl. Through 54 NFL finales, the AFC and NFC have posted a 27-27 stalemate against one another.

55 - This is the fifth Super Bowl with a total of 55 or higher. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the first four instances, with the lone ‘over’ hitting in Super Bowl LI between the Patriots and Falcons, which needed overtime to cash.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack
— Baylor 83, Texas 69— Bears are 17-0; all 17 wins are by 8+ points.
— Illinois 75, Indiana 71 OT— Illini was 24-32 on line, Indiana 23-34.
— Ole Miss 52, Tennessee 50— Vols led by 11 in the second half.
— Maryland 61, Purdue 60- Terps scored last six points of the game.
— P Chris Archer signed a 1-year deal with Tampa Bay, his old team.
— Fred VanVleet scored 54 points for Toronto Tuesday, the most points EVER by a player who wasn’t taken in the NBA Draft.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 442,207
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“It’s tough. Golf’s a game of sportsmanship, and it’s tough to put us in the spot to call him out because we weren’t there. But at the end of the day, I think 99% of the golfers out here, if it’s in question one way or the other, they’re going to go the other way, not taking a drop … that type of deal. So it’s tough to see, it’s sad, kind of pisses us off, but it’s the way it is. Hopefully something changes and come to a conclusion.”
Pro golfer Lanto Griffin, talking about Patrick Reed’s embedded-lie drop on Saturday

Wednesday’s quiz
Green Bay won the first two Super Bowls; what was the next team to win two Super Bowls?

Tuesday’s quiz
Minnesota was the first team to lose two Super Bowls, losing to the Chiefs in SB IV, Miami in Super Bowl VIII.

Monday’s quiz
Klay Thompson played his college basketball at Washington State.

**********************

Wednesday’s Den: My nine favorite Super Bowls, and other Super Bowl trivia

13) Steelers 31, Rams 19:
— Even though they lost, it was first time Rams made it to a Super Bowl.
— Rams led 19-17 after third quarter; they were 10.5-point underdogs.
— This was Pittsburgh’s fourth Super Bowl title in six years.

12) Giants 17, Patriots 14:
— The thought of a New England team going 17-0 was nauseating.
— Subway sandwich chain was recently sued by two people who claim the “tuna” in Subway’s tuna subs is something other than tuna.
— I used to eat lot of Subway subs, until they hired Bill Belichick to do commercials, then I switched to Jersey Mike’s. Much better subs.

11) Chiefs 23, Vikings 7:
— NFL Films’ highlight film of this game made KC coach Hank Stram a household name.
— “Keep matriculating the ball down the field, boys” NFL Films struck gold miking the coach.
— This was the last game before AFL/NFL merged; Chiefs were a 12-point dog.

10) Raiders 32, Vikings 14:
— Minnesota made the Rams’ life miserable in 70’s playoff games, so this was a good result.
— This was my senior year in HS; I played in a CYO basketball league where the games were played in a Jewish Community Center. Go figure.
— We had a game scheduled at same time as the Super Bowl; our refs didn’t show up until after the football game. I sat in a lounge and ate chips/drank soda watching the football game. Needless to say, I was fairly useless during the basketball game.

9) From 1984-96 seasons, the NFC won 13 consecutive Super Bowls.

8) In his nine Super Bowls, Tom Brady’s team has never scored a first quarter TD, or led after the first quarter (0-4-5). He’s won six of the nine games SU.

7) Strange Stat of the Day:
Last 14 Super Bowls, the team with the lesser win %age went 10-4 SU, 13-1 ATS

6) Only twice has the team that lost a Super Bowl won the big game the next season:
— Dallas lost Super Bowl V to the Colts, beat Miami the next year.
— New England lost Super Bowl LII to Philadelphia, won the Super Bowl the next year.

5) Saints 31, Colts 17:
— Saints were in the NFL 21 years before they played a playoff game.
— Someone made a commercial of Saints fans’ reactions at home parties when Tracy Porter ran back a pick-6 74 yards to clinch the game for New Orleans. It is a great commercial.

4) Chiefs 31, 49ers 20:
— Whenever the 49ers lose, I’m probably pretty happy.
— I’ve never heard anyone say they dislike Andy Reid, and I know someone who hates Ray Romano. Reid won his first world title in his 21st year as a head coach.
— 49ers led this game 20-10 after third quarter.

3) Eagles 41, Patriots 33:
— Nick Foles is 28-27 as a regular season starter, 4-2 in playoff games.
— He’s played for five teams in nine years, but will always be a Philly legend.
— Foles caught a TD pass on a trick play to give Philly a 22-12 halftime lead.

2) Steelers 27, Cardinals 23:
— Arizona lost, but getting Cardinals here put Kurt Warner in the Hall of Fame.
— Warner threw a 64-yard TD pass to Larry Fitzgerald with 2:37 left to put Arizona ahead.
— Big Ben won it with a 6-yard TD pass to Santonio Holmes with 0:35 left.

1) Rams 23, Titans 16:
— 73-yard TD pass from Warner to Bruce with 1:54 left put Rams ahead.
— Mike Jones tackles a Titans’ WR on 1-yard line as time ran out.
— Warner capped off a storybook season, throwing for 414 yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack
— Old Dominion 82, Marshall 81— Marshall led by 21 with 17:14 left in game.
— Penn State 55, Maryland 50— Teams shot a combined 8-40 on the arc.
— Cleveland State 80, Oakland 72— Vikings are 13-2 in Horizon League.
— Nevada 74, Boise State 72— Boise lost despite making 11-25 on arc.
— South Dakota 64, South Dakota State 56— Coyotes are 9-0 in Summit League.
— Cal-Irvine 70, Cal-Bakersfield 53— Anteaters stay atop the Big West.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 456,295
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“We are sort of splitting hairs here a little bit, but I would [take Wilson over Lawrence] as a matter of fact……..I think Zach, obviously, I just love the way he throws the football. It is hard to teach. We have seen people learn to perfect it a little bit. He has all the skills; he has a live arm, he has a strong arm, he can put touch on it, he can gun it. He is 6’3″, he is not a small guy. He moves around with great athleticism. I think, to me, watching him play quarterback, he looks really ready.”
Joe Theismann

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the Patriots’ starting quarterback before Tom Brady?

Friday’s quiz
Florida (2007-08) was the last college basketball team to repeat as national champs.

Thursday’s quiz
Dick Vermeil and Pete Carroll are the only two coaches to win a Super Bowl and a Rose Bowl.

**************************

Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) Dodgers gave P Trevor Bauer a 3-year, $102M contract; Bauer has a $17M option on Year 3 of the contract, so it is really a 2-year, $85M deal, unless Bauer struggles badly and then doesn’t opt out after the second year. If he pitches well for two years, he’ll definitely opt out so he can make a lot more than $17M in 2023.

12) Some random observations from the contract:
— An agent’s take is generally 3%, so that is a minimum of $3,060,000 for the agent.

Two years ago, no MLB pitcher started more than 34 games. Assuming Bauer starts 34 games in each of the next two seasons, for which he will be paid $85M, that means he earns:
— $1,250,000 per start
— If he averages 6.2 innings per start (his average from 2018-20), that is $187,490.643 per inning, $62,496.88 per out.

Not bad for a guy with a 75-64 career record.

11) Braves signed OF Marcell Ozuna to a 4-year, $65M deal; Ozuna knocked in 56 runs in 60 games LY, his first year as a Brave.

10) These two contracts come on the heels of the news that the average major league salary went down last year, for the third year in a row.

9) Speaking of salaries, Clemson’s offensive coordinator now makes $2M a year, making him the third college coordinator to earn $2M+ a year. Not a bad gig for an assistant coach.

8) Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, widely expected to be the #1 pick in the NFL Draft, is going to have surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Lawrence will throw for NFL scouts next Friday instead of on Clemson’s Pro Day, so he can have the operation and his shoulder will have more time to heal.

7) When Duke-North Carolina play tonight, it’ll be the first time since 1960 that the rivals have met, with neither team ranked in the top 25.

6) When he was a GM, Theo Epstein won World Series titles with the Red Sox and Cubs; he’ll probably be in the Hall of Fame someday, but even the great ones make mistakes now and then.

December 8, 2011, Epstein made this trade with Colorado:
— Rockies got DJ LeMahieu, Tyler Colvin
— Cubs got Ian Stewart, Casey Weathers

Not his finest moment, but he also got Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. Obviously, he’s done a lot more good than bad.

5) Didn’t take long for a Matthew Stafford 2021 betting prop to show up online:

— Over 28.5 TD passes (-$125)
— Under 28.5 TD passes (+$105)

4) Thru two rounds of this week’s PGA tournament in Phoenix, Xander Schauffele leads by a stroke; since the beginning of the 2017-18 season, this is the 26th time Schauffele has been in the top-10 through 36 holes, most of any player during that time.

3) In 54 Super Bowls, there have been 15 pick-6’s, where a team runs an INT back for a TD. The only team to score a pick-6 in a Super Bowl and lose? Atlanta Falcons four years ago.

2) Sounds like the NBA is going to have an All-Star Game on March 7, even though not all of the league’s stars are on board with that idea.

Sunday after that is Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament, March should be a fun month.

1) Over the last 25 years, Super Bowl teams who were #3 or lower seed in their conference are 8-3 SU, 11-0 ATS. Tampa Bay was the #5-seed in the NFC this year.

[StarDust Bum]

DATE LEAGUE GAME SCORE STATUS PICK

NFL 2021 PLAYOFF RECORD:

02/07/2021 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
01/24/2021 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
01/17/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/16/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/10/2021 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
01/09/2021 5-1-0 83.33% +1950 Detail


TOTALS.............20-6-0......76.92%.............+ 67.00



SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

KC at TB 06:30 PM

TB +3.0 WINNER

U 55.0 WINNER

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack
— Indiana 67, Iowa 65— Hawkeyes lost four of last five games.
— Valparaiso 74, Drake 57— Drake (18-1) loses for first time this year.
— Cincinnati 64, Temple 61– Bearcats outscored Owls 21-11 over final 9:57
— Nevada 73, Boise State 62— Why isn’t Steve Alford the coach at Indiana?
— Villanova 84, Georgetown 74— Under Patrick Ewing, Hoyas are 22-41 in Big East.
— Kings 113, Clippers 110— Sacramento won 7 of its last 8 games.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 460,311
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I think light years. Just the mixture of all those guys in the secondary [and] solidifying the front. Again, going into last season, we had to get Shaq [Barrett] back [and] we had to get [Ndamukong] Suh back. Keeping everybody there [and] now getting Vita [Vea] back. That secondary was the key. Getting guys that could play man-to-man, that were aggressive bump-and-run type people that could also play zone, rather than soft zone players. It took a while, but I think Todd (Bowles) has just done a tremendous job and we’ve been winning with defense.”
Bruce Arians

Monday’s quiz
When Tampa Bay won its first Super Bowl title, who was coaching the Raiders that day?

Sunday’s quiz
Tampa Bay beat the Oakland Raiders in the previous Super Bowl appearance.

Saturday’s quiz
Drew Bledsoe was the Patriots’ starting quarterback before Tom Brady.

************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up Super Bowl Sunday

13) Coming into this season, in Tampa Bay’s entire franchise history, they had a 6-9 record in playoff games, and they had even won a Super Bowl before.

Summing that up, the Buccaneers had won six playoff GAMES. Tom Brady had six Super Bowl rings, making him a pretty solid upgrade over the previous Tampa Bay starter, Jameis Winston.

12) Tom Brady now has seven Super Bowl rings. Tampa Bay has 10 playoff wins.

11) Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 9:
— Teams combined to convert only 7-25 third down plays.
— Penalties in first half: Chiefs 8 for 95 yards, Tampa Bay one for 5 yards.

10) Tell your statistics to shut up: Chiefs outgained Tampa Bay, 350-340.

Chiefs gained 64-65-48 yards on last three drives, after the issue had been decided.

9) On their first seven drives, Tampa Bay scored four TD’s and were stopped on the 1-yard line on another drive.

8) On the drive where the Chiefs stopped Tampa Bay on the 1-yard line, Bucs threw a pass on 2nd down to OL Joe Haeg- it was broken up by a defender. No offensive lineman has ever scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl- he could’ve been the first.

7) Good trivia question: who was Tampa Bay’s backup QB?

Playing for his 4th NFL team in four years, it was Blaine Gabbert, who has a 13-35 career record as an NFL starter, mostly with Jacksonville. He looked happier as hell on the sidelines near the end of Sunday’s game. Super Bowl rings are hard to find, unless you stumble onto one at a Las Vegas pawn shop, or if you’re Vladimir Putin.

Quick side story: Patriots’ owner Robert Kraft does business in Russia; he met Putin once, and took off his Super Bowl ring to show Putin, who then stuck the ring in his pocket and quickly walked away, never to be seen again. Seriously, that really happened.

6) Jerry Greene of Detroit News covered his 55th consecutive Super Bowl Sunday; he is the only media member to cover every Super Bowl.

5) Chiefs’ over/under for the game was 3.5 touchdowns; they didn’t score one. Kansas City had three drives in the red zone, scored on only one of those drives, a field goal.

4) If you have a friend/relative who went all in wagering on the Chiefs Sunday, you might want to avoid them for a few days- they could be looking for a loan.

3) We mentioned couple of times over weekend that over the last 27 years, Super Bowl teams who were a #3 or lower seed in their conference were 10-0-1 ATS in Super Bowls; now we can make that 11-0-1 ATS. Not really sure why that is true; guess it speaks to teams gaining a lot of momentum/confidence as they get rolling in the playoffs.

2) Odds to win the Super Bowl next year:
11-2— Kansas City
9-1— Green Bay
11-1— Tampa Bay
12-1— Baltimore, Buffalo

1) Elsewhere, Brooks Koepka chipped in for eagle on the 17th hole to win the Phoenix Open; it was his second eagle of the day, when he shot a 6-under par 65.