The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) at BUFFALO (13 - 3) - 1/9/2021, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (9 - 6) at SEATTLE (11 - 4) - 1/9/2021, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 78-106 ATS (-38.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-3 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (11 - 5) at WASHINGTON (7 - 9) - 1/9/2021, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 97-129 ATS (-44.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-129 ATS (-44.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-129 ATS (-44.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (11 - 5) at TENNESSEE (11 - 5) - 1/10/2021, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in playoff games since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (8 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (12 - 4) - 1/10/2021, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 60-89 ATS (-37.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (11 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (12 - 4) - 1/10/2021, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents this season.
PITTSBURGH is 113-82 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 110-82 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL

Wild Card Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, January 9

Indianapolis @ Buffalo
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

LA Rams @ Seattle
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Rams's last 13 games
LA Rams is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games

Tampa Bay @ Washington
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home


Sunday, January 10

Baltimore @ Tennessee
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tennessee's last 14 games at home

Chicago @ New Orleans
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
New Orleans is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

Wild Card Weekend Playoff Betting Trends, Angles
Matt Blunt

Earlier this week, I outlined some historical angles related to the Week 17 results from playoff teams over the years to find some interesting information, but everyone knows you can't completely base a betting selection on what has happened most recently.

So why don't we go over some season long angles and specific “Wild Card Weekend” point-spreads and totals that can be applied as well, because I found some interesting stuff in that research too.

Not going to be the typical Hot/Not format, as rather I'll just go on listing headings based on the idea of Best/Worst or Largest/Smallest, and once I get going here it will be easier to understand.

I'll begin with the specifics of the point spreads and totals we've already got posted for this week's games.

So let's get right to it:

Since the 2011-12 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card round team that's the shortest favorite for the weekend is 3-6 SU and ATS; 1-6 SU and ATS since 2013-14.

This was an interesting one to come across, as more often than not these teams that get locked in as the smallest favorite for Wild Card Weekend (as of the closing line) were around a FG or less.

It's those types of “coin flip” games that you'd think would be much closer to the 50% mark for favorites, but that hasn't been the case. Only two of the nine teams here were favored by 4 points or more (Houston -4 in 2016, and LAR -6 in 2017) and they split the board both outright and against the number.

The last two seasons we've had Philadelphia (-1) and Houston (-1.5) in this spot in 2019 and 2018 respectively and the average margin of defeat for those two teams was 11 points. Not pretty at all.

Put it together for this week and it's not good news for the Baltimore Ravens, as currently they sit at -3.5 for the distinction of being the shortest favorite on the board. Given that there is some playoff revenge from last year, and regular season revenge from an OT loss this year for Baltimore, there are reasons to buck this historical angle and look to back the Ravens, but win or lose, it's got decent potential to be a highly sweated out game.

Since the 2011-12 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card round team that's the biggest favorite for the weekend is 6-4 SU but just 3-7 ATS; 1-7 ATS since 2013-14.

There are a couple of things to note here, the first being the sample size hits 10 instead of 9 because back in 2017, Kansas City and Jacksonville each closed at -8.5 for the largest spread of Wild Card weekend. Neither of them covered the number, but the Jags did win outright in their 10-3 victory over the Bills.

The second thing to note is that all three ATS wins have come when it's been a double digit spread. In 2011 we had New Orleans close at -10.5 in an easy SU and ATS victory, and Green Bay followed suit the very next year closing at the same -10.5 number. It wasn't until 2016 that we had another double digit spread during Wild Card weekend, as Pittsburgh rolled to 30-12 win over Miami as -11.5 chalk. Every other time the largest spread of the weekend has closed lower than double digits, the underdog has covered.

So it's up to you on whether or not to trust that second caveat this week, as it's the New Orleans Saints who own the distinction of being the biggest favorite this week at -10, although it does seem to be moving into the single digit range at various places in the market.

It will be New Orleans or Tampa Bay that closes in this role as the biggest Wild Card favorite though, and if both end up in single digits, it may be time to close your eyes and hit submit on ATS wagers on Washington and Chicago, even with how unsettling that may feel.

Since the 2011-12 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card game with the smallest total is 3-6 O/U

No wild backstory information on games staying 'under' historically here, and last year it was the Bills/Texans game that landed in this role with a closing number of 43. Even seeing that game go to OT wasn't enough to push the final score 'over' the number (22-19 final), so maybe there is something to this total history where it's best not to try and figure out how it keeps working.

This weekend it's the Rams/Seahawks game that fits this role with a total of 42.5 currently, and given the QB situation for the Rams, you know that the 'under' is likely to get support trickling in throughout the week, and then possibly hammered if Goff is confirmed out at some point. So if the 'under' in this game is already something that's on your radar, it might be best to go ahead and fire early on it.

Since the 2011-12 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card game with the largest total is 2-7 O/U; 1-7 O/U since 2012

This was something I found really interesting related to this week's games, because it adds further support to the 'under' in the Baltimore/Tennessee game that the piece from earlier in the week already outlined.

At 54.5 currently, and approaching 55 and beyond in plenty of shops, the majority consensus for this game is likely only going to be on the 'over', so contrary to the last point, this may be the play this weekend to wait on until it's closer to kick off.

For a bettor like myself, that likely contrarian approach, lined up with these multiple historical angles, as well as a defacto “division flip flop” theory in play after the regular season meeting between these two cashed an 'over' 50.5 ticket thanks to Tennessee's OT win, the 'under' in this game is going to be something already in my pocket come Sunday afternoon.

Since the 2012-13 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card round team that had the highest points per game of any Wild Card team during the regular season is 5-4 SU, but just 2-6-1 ATS

The sample size remains the same at nine games even with one fewer year, because back in 2015, Seattle and Pittsburgh entered the playoffs tied at the top with 26.4 points per game scored coming into the postseason.

Both of them ended up winning their respective games outright to move on, but not without some drastic help in the form of huge gaffs from their opposition. Seattle and Pittsburgh also went 0-1-1 ATS in those victories.

In Seattle's case, that was the year they won 10-9 at Minnesota in the Wild Card round, as Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a go-ahead 27-yard FG with 22 seconds left in the game. That missed kick bled into the next year for Walsh, where huge struggles ultimately got him released by the Vikings in November of 2016, and he went and joined Seattle of all teams the following year.

I guess the Seahawks organization felt like they needed to directly compensate Walsh at some point for that 2015 playoff victory.

In Pittsburgh's case, they were trailing 16-15 late in Cincinnati as the Bengals were trying to win their first playoff game since 1990, and after a late fumble gave the Steelers one final chance, Marvin Lewis lost complete control of his team. 30 yards in penalties from a Vontaze Burfict head shot and an Adam Jones personal foul penalty put the Steelers in easy FG range for the win.

Had it not been for those gaffs, this SU record for the highest scoring Wild Card team would look much worse, and even still they aren't in a great position to be bet on.

This year, the best Wild Card team in terms of points per game this year just so happens to be the Buffalo Bills at 31.3 points per game. As a touchdown favorite, the Bills following suit in this role with an outright victory, but ATS loss does make plenty of sense.

Since the 2012-13 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card round team that had the lowest points per game of any Wild Card team during the regular season is 3-5 SU and ATS

Flipping things over to the other side of the scoring spectrum, playoff teams that had issues scoring consistently each week tend to see that be their demise in the opening week of the playoffs.

The 3-5 SU and ATS records aren't perfectly correlated in the sense that every SU win was an ATS cover and vice versa, but that doesn't mean we can't dig a little deeper to take something from this.

Four of the five SU losses came from road teams, while all three SU wins came from sides that were at home. Indianapolis' 45-44 win in wild fashion over the Chiefs back in 2013 stands out as the highlight game fitting this role with the Colts being the lowest scoring Wild Card team that year.

And having an AFC South team either in this role or playing against the team who fits this billing is quite common as well.

Houston made back-to-back appearances in this spot in 2015 and 2016 – losing the former vs KC and winning the latter vs the-then Oakland Raiders – and last season it was the Texans hosting a Buffalo Bills team that scored just 19.6 points per game during the regular season and ultimately fell in that OT game.

That was the second time in three seasons that Buffalo found themselves in this role, as they lost SU but won ATS at Jacksonville back in 2017. Goes to show you just how far that Bills offense has come this season.

The AFC South does get a break from being involved in these games this season though, as it's the Washington Football Team that clocks in with the lowest points per game number this season at 20.9.

Losing outright but winning ATS for Washington makes plenty of sense as a wager this week as well.

Since the 2012-13 NFL playoffs, the Wild Card round team that had the best ATS record during the regular season is 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS

They call the playoffs the “second season” for a reason, and a record like that during Wild Card weekend for those solid regular season ATS teams suggests that backing strong ATS teams from the season might not be the best option this week.

We've seen some very good teams go down in this role over this span, and I did omit one game between Seattle and Washington from 2012, when they were one of four NFL teams (three in Wild Card) to finish the year with an 11-5 ATS record. The other team that applied that year was the Indianapolis Colts who lost 24-9 in Baltimore.

The only ATS victory during that time came from that 2015 Minnesota Vikings team that couldn't advance thanks to Blair Walsh.

Three different times we've had the best ATS Wild Card team go up against the worst ATS Wild Card team (more on them in a minute) and the worst team has gone 3-0 SU and ATS in those games (Chicago losing 16-15 to Philly in 2018, Oakland losing to Houston in 2016, and Baltimore beating the Colts in that aforementioned 2012 game).

What makes this angle appealing is that there is plenty of opportunity to cash a ticket on a big underdog in these spots, fading these quality ATS teams that oddsmakers have no choice but to shade the line slightly there way if they so choose. Chicago closed at -6.5 against Philly in that 2018 game.

Kansas City was another top ATS team to drop as big chalk back in 2017, losing 22-21 to Tennessee, when KC closed at -8.5, and last year we had New Orleans – who finished the regular season with a league-best 11-5 ATS mark lose outright to Minnesota as -7.5 home chalk.

This year, we've got another reason to fade the Buffalo Bills this week, as Buffalo went 11-5 against the number this year, tying Miami for the best record in the league. Bills fans have got to hope it's simply just a coincidence that they've got the same ATS record and league ranking as New Orleans did a year ago, because watching this year's Bills team lose on Saturday will be a bitter pill to swallow for that fan base.

And I probably shouldn't mention the fact that New Orleans was also the Wild Card round team that had the highest points per game going into last year's playoffs too – a role I already outlined Buffalo being in this season a few paragraphs ago.

Buffalo fans better abandon any belief in the saying “history always repeats” this week in that case.

Since the 2012-13 NFL playoffs, the Wild Card round team that had the worst ATS record during the regular season is 5-3 SU and 6-1-1 ATS.

If fading the best ATS Wild Card team is a situation ripe with upset potential, backing the worst ATS Wild Card team has to be considered in the same realm of possibility.

Last year's loss by the Philadelphia Eagles in this round was the only ATS loss for Wild Card teams in this role, as it had been on a 6-0-1 ATS run prior obviously.

Littered in that fantastic run were outright wins by that same Eagles franchise in 2018 over the Bears (best ATS vs worst ATS) and Atlanta's 26-13 win over the Rams in 2017

These “bad” ATS teams aren't always the underdog though, so keep that in consideration as well, as Houston and KC each won SU and ATS in this role as -4 and -3 chalk in 2016 and 2015 respectively, while Baltimore was laying -7.5 in their 2012 victory over the Colts (another best ATS vs worst ATS).

So which organization lands in this role this week?

Why the Cleveland Browns of course, finishing the year 6-10 ATS and ending their 18-year playoff drought thanks to a nail-biting win over a Pittsburgh team that only had about half their starters suit up.

Cleveland's already seen an opening number of +3.5 move against them with it sitting at -6 currently, which was due to the Covid-19 issues that continue to haunt Cleveland.

Back to the situation, facing the same opponent in consecutive weeks scenario is an added dynamic to that game that I'm sure will be dissected from that approach by many. It is a scenario that has happened enough times in NFL history to be relevant, but it was something that was far more common at the turn of last decade.

It's also not unheard of to have the same team win both games, as Dallas did it to Philadelphia in Week 17 and Wild Card weekend in 2009, the same year that the New York Jets beat Cincinnati to get into the playoffs in Week 17, and then beat them again the following week when all the rested Bengals starters from Week 17 were back on the field for the playoff game.

That's what Cleveland is trying to accomplish on SNF this week, and at least in terms of them being the worst ATS team playing this weekend, it's actually a positive this time around.

Not sure how much higher this number moves Pittsburgh's way, and while it's easy to come to the thought that Pittsburgh having their starting QB back, as well as multiple defensive starters too, should equate to a Steelers win, that's not always the case.

Now that this spread has moved all the way through -6, due to Tuesday Covid-19 update out of Cleveland. Even a tight Steelers victory still gets Cleveland the cover this week. Definitely something to keep in mind.

Finally one more thing to note here that falls under the umbrella of “worst” ATS teams. In this same eight year span since the 2012-13 NFL playoffs began, if you were to blindly take the team that finished the regular season with the worst of the two ATS records in every specific matchup, you'd be 15-8-2 ATS (ignoring games where teams had identical ATS records) and those teams are 16-9 SU as well.

That suggests that plays on Indianapolis, Seattle, Tennessee, Chicago, and obviously Cleveland should be up for consideration as well this week.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Saturday’s games

Indianapolis (11-5) @ Buffalo (13-3)
— Colts won four of five, eight of last 11 games.
— Indy won/covered four of its last five road games.
— Colts are 9-0 when they score 27+ points. 2-5 when they do not.
— Philip Rivers has a 5-6 playoff record, 4-2 in first playoff game of a year.
— Indy is in playoffs for only 2nd time in last six years.
— Colts won a playoff game at Houston two years ago, then lost in Kansas City.

— Bills won nine of its last ten games, covered last eight.
— Buffalo outscored last six opponents 156-67 in first half.
— Bills scored 24+ points in 12 of their 13 wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Bills lost their last six playoff games; their last playoff win was in 1995.

— Bills won three of last five series games; Indy won last meeting 37-5 at home, two years ago.
— Colts lost their last three visits to Buffalo, by 23-13-6 points.
— Rivers won his last two visits here with the Chargers, 22-10/31-20.

Rams (10-6) @ Seattle (12-4)
— Rams haven’t named a starting QB, won’t until Saturday. Goff’s thumb is healing, but is he healthy enough to take snaps under center?
— Rams didn’t score an offensive TD the last two weeks.
— In their six losses, Rams were outscored 96-31 in first half.
— LA scored a defensive TD in four of their last six games; they scored one in each of their last three wins.
— Rams are in playoffs for third time in four years under McVay.
— Under McVay, Rams are 2-2 in playoff games, with a win in New Orleans.

— Seattle won six of its last seven games overall.
— Last five games, Seahawks allowed 14.4 ppg.
— Last seven games, Seahawks outscored foes 83-30 in first half.
— Seattle covered six of its eight home games this year.
— Wilson has a 9-6 playoff record, 6-1 in first playoff game of a year.
— Seahawks are 3-4 in playoff games since they lost Super Bowl six years ago.

— Teams split two meetings this year; home team won both games.
— Seattle beat the Rams 20-9 here two weeks ago.
— Rams won five of last seven series games, but lost last two visits here.

Tampa Bay (11-5) @ Washington (7-9)
— This is Tampa Bay’s first playoff game since 2007.
— Tom Brady has a 30-11 career record in playoff games.
— Buccaneers won last four games, scoring 26-31-47-44 points.
— Last six games, Bucs converted 39-81 third down plays.
— Last five games, Bucs outscored teams 94-49 in second half.
— Tampa Bay is 11-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Bucs won their last five road games (3-2 ATS).

— Not sure if Smith/Heinicke will play QB here. Smith has 2-5 record in playoff games.
— Washington won five of its last seven games. (5-2 ATS)
— Washington outscored last 11 opponents 155-44 in second half.
— Washington lost its last four playoff games; their last playoff win was in 2005.
— Under is 9-2-1 in last dozen Washington games.
— Last seven weeks, Washington allowed 15.9 ppg.

— Washington won three of last four series games.
— Teams split last four meetings here; Bucs were last here in 2015.

Sunday’s games

Baltimore (11-5) @ Tennessee (10-6)
— Baltimore won its last five games, scoring 37.2 ppg.
— Baltimore scored 23 TD’s on their last 47 drives.
— Ravens lost field position in only two games this season.
— Lamar Jackson is 0-2 in playoff games, losing at home to Chargers/Titans.
— Ravens are 9-2-1 ATS in last 12 games as road favorites, 4-2 TY.
— Baltimore hasn’t won a playoff game in six years; they’re 1-3 in playoff games since they won the Super Bowl eight years ago.

— Tennessee won three of last five games to win AFC South title.
— Titans gave up 38+ points in three of their last five games.
— Titans split their last six home games SU.
— Tannehill was 2-1 in playoff games LY, which were all on road.
— Over is 6-2 in Titans’ last eight games overall.
— Titans scored 22 TD’s on their last 51 drives.
— This is Tennessee’s first home playoff game since 2008.

— Titans (+5) beat Ravens 30-24 in Baltimore in Week 11, running ball for 173 yards.
— Tennessee (+10) upset the Ravens 28-12 in Baltimore in LY’s playoffs.
— Tennessee won three of last four series games.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.

Chicago (8-8) @ New Orleans (12-4)
— Chicago won/covered three of its last four games.
— Bears are 5-3 ATS on the road this season.
— Chicago gave up five TD’s on seven drives vs Green Bay LW.
— Trubisky lost his one playoff game, 16-15 at home to Philly, in 2018.
— Bears haven’t won a playoff game since 2010; this is their first road playoff game since 1994.
— Bears are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

— New Orleans split its last four games, giving up 24 ppg.
— Saints are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
— Five of New Orleans’ last 11 games were decided by exactly three points.
— Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
— Saints are 4-6 in playoff games, since winning Super Bowl 11 years ago.
— Brees is 8-8 in playoff games, 6-3 in first playoff game of a year.

— Saints (-4.5) beat Bears 26-23 in OT in Chicago, on November 1st.
— Saints were only 2-13 on 3rd down that day, won field position by 9 yards.
— New Orleans won last six series games.
— Bears lost last five visits here; their last win here was in 1991.

Cleveland (11-5) @ Pittsburgh (12-4)
— Cleveland HC Stefanski (COVID) will miss this game.
— This is the Browns’ first playoff game since 2002.
— Cleveland won four of its last five road games.
— Browns won six of their last eight games overall.
— Browns lost field position in eight of their last nine games.
— Cleveland gave up 28.0 ppg in their last six games.
— Mayfield is playing in his first NFL playoff game.

— Steelers lost four of last five games, after an 11-0 start.
— Last five games, Pittsburgh averaged 54.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last four games, Steelers were outscored 57-20 in first half.
— Pittsburgh lost in Cleveland LW, but they rested players, while Cleveland needed the win to get here.
— Since 2011, Steelers are 3-5 in playoff games; this is their first playoff game since 2017.
— Roethlisberger is 13-8 in playoff games, 7-3 in first playoff game of a season.

— Steelers are 13-3-1 in last sixteen series games.
— Home side won both series games this year.
— Browns lost their last 16 games in Pittsburgh; their last win here was in ’03.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack
Conference records in bowl games this year:
5-0— Big X
2-0— MAC
4-1— Sun Belt
6-2— SEC
3-1— Big 14
2-1— Mountain West
1-5— AAC
0-2— PAC-12
0-6— ACC, C-USA

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 365,625
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Yesterday on the driving range I got it to 211 miles per hour ball speed. That was cool.”
Bryson DeChambeau, who hits golf balls farther than we do

Saturday’s quiz
Who coached the Knicks to their only two NBA titles?

Friday’s quiz
Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley played college ball at Duke; he played most of his 5-year NBA career for the Sacramento Kings.

Thursday’s quiz
The designated hitter came into the American League in 1973.

***********************

Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) Houston Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson offered input on potential GM candidates to the team’s owner, but the Texans neither considered nor consulted with those people, and now Watson is annoyed, which isn’t good when he has a 4-year, $156M contract.

Watson was justifiably unhappy when the Texans traded WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona; when the team’s owner says Watson will have input on hiring decisions, then he has to be listened to, even if you don’t agree with his choices. But he wasn’t listened to, and now the team has a big problem on their hands.

12) When the late Al Davis was running the Raiders and was looking to hire coaches, he would often interview coaches he had no intention of hiring, because he wanted to pick their brains.

11) Dallas Cowboys fired DC Mike Nolan Friday, so they’ll have their third defensive coordinator in three years next season.

10) Saw an amazing video the other day, of Steph Curry making 105 3-pointers in a row at a recent practice. Curry has made shooting cool, and has proven that you can really rich by being a great shooter, which has made basketball a lot more fun to watch.

9) Get well soon to Curry’s brother Seth, who plays for the 76ers and recently tested positive for COVID. 76ers finally got out of New York Friday night; they’ll only have six guys available for their next game, Saturday against Denver.

8) Xavier did something unusual Wednesday night; they beat St John’s 69-61, but were 0-12 on the arc. Not often does a team win when they go empty outside the arc. Xavier outscored the Red Storm 21-8 on foul line; Johnnies were only 8-15 on the charity stripe.

7) Stat that surprised the hell out of me: Indiana Hoosiers have now lost 18 games in a row at Wisconsin. Then again, Indiana has been above .500 in conference play in only three of the last 12 seasons. Still think they should hire Steve Alford as coach.

6) Purdue 55, Michigan State 54:
— Spartans lost despite leading 31-16 at halftime.
— Purdue won despite going 3-24 on the arc.
— Purdue outscored MSU 5-0 over the last 0:19.

5) Dayton 89, Davidson 78, OT— High quality game in the Atlantic 14. Flyers had been stunned in their last game, losing as an 11-point favorite at Fordham, so this is a good bounce back.

4) Green Bay 84, Oakland 81, OT— Green Bay started the season 0-9, but has now won its last two games, both in overtime.

3) Quinnipiac 84, Manhattan 79, 2OT— Jaspers led 60-49 with 6:25 left in this game, but let it get away. Teams combined to make 11-49 on the arc, a total brickfest.

2) As I type this, underdogs are 77-51 ATS in the NBA this season, with three games still going on Friday night. Thats 60.2%; not having crowds helps the road teams.

1) Last three years, in this round of the NFL playoffs, underdogs went 8-2-1 ATS; one game was a pick ‘em. This will be the first time #2 seeds don’t have a bye in this round.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 9
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IND at BUF 01:05 PM
IND +7.0
O 50.0

LAR at SEA 04:40 PM
LAR +3.0
U 42.5

TB at WAS 08:15 PM
WAS +9.5
O 45.5

[StarDust Bum]

DATE LEAGUE GAME SCORE STATUS PICK

NFL 2021 PLAYOFF RECORD:

01/09/2021 5-1-0 83.33% +1950 Detail

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Top six scorers in the country:
32.5— Justin Jaworski, Lafayette
27.2— Luka Garza, Iowa
26.0— Jalen Johnson, Alabama A&M
25.4— Loren Jackson, Akron
24.8— Cameron Thomas, LSU
23.6— DeVante’ Jones, Coastal Carolina

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 370,082
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
‘We come up here, and all week we were told how good they are and how we snuck into the playoffs. Two weeks ago you saw them smoking cigars and getting all excited about beating us, and winning the division, and we were able to come up here and beat them.”
Jared Goff

Sunday’s quiz
Which two college teams did Russell Wilson play football for?

Saturday’s quiz
Red Holzman coached the Knicks to their only two NBA titles, in 1970 and 1973.

Friday’s quiz
Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley played college ball at Duke; he played most of his 5-year NBA career for the Sacramento Kings.

*********************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

13) Bills 27, Colts 24:
— Indy outgained the Bills, 472-397; that doesn’t matter.
— Colts had two empty trips to the red zone; no bueno.
— 3rd down conversions: Colts 9-17, Bills 2-9

— Buffalo gets its first playoff win since 1995.
— Bills’ first four drives: 17 plays, 108 yards, 7 points.
— Bills’ last five drives: 43 plays, 293 yards, 20 points.

12) Rams 30, Seahawks 20:
— Darious Williams had a pick-6 for the Rams.
— Cam Akers ran for 131 yards, caught passes for 45 more.
— Jared Goff came off the bench to lead the win after backup John Wolford got KO’d after getting kneed in the head while running the ball— he hurt his neck.

— Seahawks completed only 11 of their 27 passes.
— Third down conversions: Rams 3-15, Seattle 2-14
— Rams outgained Seattle, 333-278.

11) Buccaneers 31, Washington 23:
— Fournette ran for 93 yards and a TD.
— Brady threw for 381 yards in his 31st postseason win.
— Evans caught six passes for 119 yards.

— Washington was within 18-16 after three quarters.
— Heinicke threw for 306 yards; it was his second NFL start.
— Refs had right idea; total of five penalties were called in the game.

10) Texas 72, West Virginia 70:
— Three years ago, Andrew Jones had leukemia; he hit the game-winning 3-pointer in this game, after West Virginia missed two foul shots with 0:10 left.
— Mountaineers led 54-45 with 13:08 left, 70-65 with 1:41 left.
— Longhorns are 10-1; they won their last six games.

9) San Diego State 69, Nevada 67— Aztecs’ G Pulliam hit a runner off the glass at the buzzer to give San Diego State a walk-off home win, after they had blown a 10-point first half lead.

8) Santa Clara 66, Saint Mary’s 64— Herb Sendek has coached at NC State/Arizona State, but went 5-7 in NCAA tourney games so now he is at Santa Clara, where he has the Broncos on an upward path. Santa Clara is 7-2 this year, 27-15 last two years.

7) College basketball upsets:
— Santa Clara (+9) 66, Saint Mary’s 64
— Rice (+8) 71, Texas-El Paso 68
— Miami (+6.5) 64, NC State 59
— Citadel (+6.5) 92, Chattanooga 87
— Rhode Island (+6) 83, VCU 68
— Eastern Michigan (+5) 71, Akron 59
— Kentucky (+4.5) 76, Florida 58
— Middle Tennessee (+4) 67, FIU 56
— Wofford (+4) 48, NC-Greensboro 45

6) USC 73, Arizona State 64— This is the first time ever that UCLA/USC swept the two Arizona schools in Pac-12 play. Sounds surprising, but USC hadn’t won in Tucson for a decade.

5) In this day and age, how the hell do teams not score 50 points but still win?
— Wofford 48, NC-Greensboro 45— Greensboro was 1-2 on the line, for whole game.
— Manhattan 45, Quinnipiac 42— Teams combined to make 9-39 on the arc.

4) Kentucky 76, Florida 58— Wildcats stumbled thru a 1-6 non-conference slate, but won their first three conference games. This was, by far, their best game of the season.

3) Ohio State 79, Rutgers 68— Scarlet Knights were 6-0 at one point; people like me were just assuming that Rutgers would make the NCAAs for the first time since 1991, but now they’ve lost four of their last five games— they need to start winning again. Shooting better than 58% on the foul line would be a big help.

2) Cleveland State 74, Northern Kentucky 71 OT— Vikings are already 8-0 in Horizon League, after losing all three non-conference games. Previous five years, Cleveland State was 27-53 in conference games. Dennis Gates is doing an excellent coaching job.

1) Little Rock 78, Louisiana 76, OT— Teams split pair of 2-point decisions this weekend; the end of Friday’s game was……..unique.

Louisiana was up a hoop with 0:10 left, Little Rock had the ball. Point guard was dribbling near midcourt when the lights in the arena went out, and the auxiliary lights went on, the ones used during player introductions.

Lights stayed off for two seconds, then came back on; the refs never blew a whistle, the guard never stopped dribbling; when the lights came back on, he jacked up a 3 that missed, the refs sprinted off the floor, along with the Louisiana team. Little Rock’s coach was not happy.

Trojans got their revenge Saturday with this OT win; they were down 10 at halftime.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s games
Baltimore (11-5) @ Tennessee (10-6)
— Baltimore won its last five games, scoring 37.2 ppg.
— Baltimore scored 23 TD’s on their last 47 drives.
— Ravens lost field position in only two games this season.
— Lamar Jackson is 0-2 in playoff games, losing at home to Chargers/Titans.
— Ravens are 9-2-1 ATS in last 12 games as road favorites, 4-2 TY.
— Baltimore hasn’t won a playoff game in six years; they’re 1-3 in playoff games since they won the Super Bowl eight years ago.

— Tennessee won three of last five games to win AFC South title.
— Titans gave up 38+ points in three of their last five games.
— Titans split their last six home games SU.
— Tannehill was 2-1 in playoff games LY, which were all on road.
— Over is 6-2 in Titans’ last eight games overall.
— Titans scored 22 TD’s on their last 51 drives.
— This is Tennessee’s first home playoff game since 2008.

— Titans (+5) beat Ravens 30-24 in Baltimore in Week 11, running ball for 173 yards.
— Tennessee (+10) upset the Ravens 28-12 in Baltimore in LY’s playoffs.
— Tennessee won three of last four series games.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.

Chicago (8-8) @ New Orleans (12-4)
— Chicago won/covered three of its last four games.
— Bears are 5-3 ATS on the road this season.
— Chicago gave up five TD’s on seven drives vs Green Bay LW.
— Trubisky lost his one playoff game, 16-15 at home to Philly, in 2018.
— Bears haven’t won a playoff game since 2010; this is their first road playoff game since 1994.
— Bears are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

— New Orleans split its last four games, giving up 24 ppg.
— Saints are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
— Five of New Orleans’ last 11 games were decided by exactly three points.
— Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
— Saints are 4-6 in playoff games, since winning Super Bowl 11 years ago.
— Brees is 8-8 in playoff games, 6-3 in first playoff game of a year.

— Saints (-4.5) beat Bears 26-23 in OT in Chicago, on November 1st.
— Saints were only 2-13 on 3rd down that day, won field position by 9 yards.
— New Orleans won last six series games.
— Bears lost last five visits here; their last win here was in 1991.

Cleveland (11-5) @ Pittsburgh (12-4)
— Cleveland HC Stefanski (COVID) will miss this game.
— This is the Browns’ first playoff game since 2002.
— Cleveland won four of its last five road games.
— Browns won six of their last eight games overall.
— Browns lost field position in eight of their last nine games.
— Cleveland gave up 28.0 ppg in their last six games.
— Mayfield is playing in his first NFL playoff game.

— Steelers lost four of last five games, after an 11-0 start.
— Last five games, Pittsburgh averaged 54.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last four games, Steelers were outscored 57-20 in first half.
— Pittsburgh lost in Cleveland LW, but they rested players, while Cleveland needed the win to get here.
— Since 2011, Steelers are 3-5 in playoff games; this is their first playoff game since 2017.
— Roethlisberger is 13-8 in playoff games, 7-3 in first playoff game of a season.

— Steelers are 13-3-1 in last sixteen series games.
— Home side won both series games this year.
— Browns lost their last 16 games in Pittsburgh; their last win here was in ’03.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 10
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BAL at TEN 01:05 PM
BAL -3.5
U 53.5

CHI at NO 04:40 PM
NO -10.5
U 48.5

CLE at PIT 08:15 PM
CLE +5.5
O 48.0

[StarDust Bum]

DATE LEAGUE GAME SCORE STATUS PICK

NFL 2021 PLAYOFF RECORD:

01/10/2021 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
01/09/2021 5-1-0 83.33% +1950 Detail


TOTALS.............11-1-0......91.66%.............+ 49.50

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack
Leading scorers in the NBA:
35.0— Bradley Beal, Wash
30.6— Steph Curry, GState
27.9— CJ McCollum, Port
27.1— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
27.1— Kyrie Irving, Bklyn
27.0— James Harden, Hous

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 373,588
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I love Ron (Rivera). I want to be back in Washington.”
Washington QB Tyler Heinicke

Monday’s quiz
Before Sunday night, who did the Cleveland Browns’ last playoff win come against?

Sunday’s quiz
Russell Wilson played college football for NC State, Wisconsin.

Saturday’s quiz
Red Holzman coached the Knicks to their only two NBA titles, in 1970 and 1973.

************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

13) Ravens 20, Titans 13:
— Tennessee led 10-0 after the first quarter.
— Lamar Jackson gets his first playoff win (1-2).
— Ravens held Derrick Henry to 40 yards on 18 carries.

— Baltimore outgained Tennessee, 401-209
— Titans’ last six series: 31 plays, 103 yards, 3 points.
— Ravens visit Buffalo Saturday night.

12) Saints 21, Bears 9:
— New Orleans outgained the Bears, 385-239
— 3rd down conversions: Saints 11-17, Bears 1-10
— Chicago’s only TD came on the last play of the game.

— Saints had 3 drives in 2nd half; they lasted 7:29, 8:51, 5:19 (38 plays)
— Chicago went 3/out on five of their ten drives.
— Saints host Tampa Bay Sunday.

11) Browns 48, Steelers 37:
— Browns were +5 in turnovers, always a good thing.
— Cleveland led 28-0 after the first quarter, 35-10 at halftime.
— Roethlisberger was 47-68/501 passing, most completions EVER in any NFL game.

— Steelers started season 11-0, then lost five of their last six games.
— New Browns started up in 1999; this is their first playoff win.
— Old Browns, who moved to Baltimore, last won a playoff game in 1994.
— Cleveland visits Kansas City Sunday afternoon.

10) Last three years, home teams went 4-10 SU in this round of the NFL playoffs.

9) Washington QB Tyler Heinicke threw for 306 yards in his 2nd NFL start; he made himself a lot of money, proving to all 32 teams that he is good enough to be productive in a playoff game.

Heinicke went to college at Old Dominion, while the Monarchs were transitioning from I-AA football to I-A; he once started a game ODU lost 80-20 to North Carolina. Monarchs went 35-15 in Heinicke’s four seasons- starting in college for four years is solid experience.

We’ll see if Saturday’s effort was enough to make the Washington roster next fall. Either way, he’ll be on someone’s roster in 2021.

8) Kyrie Irving has sat out the Brooklyn Nets’ last three games, apparently because he was upset by the attack on the U.S. Capitol in Washington last Wednesday.

Here’s the thing: Irving’s salary works out to $405,452 per game, every game. Is he getting paid while he refuses to play? If not, then that’s on him. If he’s still getting paid, then what the bleep are we doing here? A guy gets $1.2M over five days for doing nothing, because he doesn’t feel like going to work? Nets aren’t saying much; they cannot be happy.

7) In 2013-14, Zach LaVine played his only season of college basketball, for UCLA; he scored 9.4 ppg in 24.4 mpg, nothing amazing, but the NBA is a developmental league now, and he was taken with the 13th pick by Minnesota in the 2014 draft. Great pick.

LaVine has worked very hard on his game; last three years, he’s averaged 23.7/25.5/26.0 ppg; he is a legit star, because he got good coaching and he obviously worked his butt off to become a great player, which he now is.

Problem for Minnesota is, on June 22, 2017, they traded him to Chicago; here’s the trade:
— Minnesota got: Jimmy Butler, Justin Patton
— Chicago got: LaVine, Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen

Wouldn’t have been a terrible trade for Minnesota, but Butler/Karl-Anthony Towns didn’t get along, and one of them had to go- they’re 57-98 last 2+ seasons, with Butler traded elsewhere.

6) Wichita State 82, Cincinnati 76— First seven fouls of the game were called on Cincinnati, which reminded me of a story.

March 2001, I was an assistant basketball coach at Schenectady High; we had great players, and won the public school state championship, our second title in four years.

We’re playing St Raymond’s from New York City in the Federation tournament- they had Julius Hodge, who went on to play at NC State, then in the NBA for a couple years. The game starts, and the first five or six fouls are called on our guys. No bueno.

There were lot of people at this game in Glens Falls; we were the local team and those people weren’t very pleased with the refs. Our coach says something to the ref, who has the onions to reply: “You should sit down. You don’t hear the other coach complaining!!!”

Well genius, you haven’t called a bleeping foul on his team yet!!! Go figure.

5) You know the State Farm commercial where the guys are all getting their hair cut like Patrick Mahomes? On a table behind one of the guys, there is an old fashioned dial-up phone- don’t see a lot of those anymore. It just looks out of place in the commercial.

4) Washington Nationals gave Kyle Schwarber a one-year, $10M contract; Schwarber hit only .188 in last year’s shortened season- he’s a career .230 hitter, but he’s also hit 105 homers the last four seasons. His career OPS is .816.

3) Was surprised to see that Victor Rojas has walked away from his job as TV voice of the Los Angeles Angels; the son of former big leaguer Cookie Rojas, Victor interviewed for the Angels’ vacant general manager job last fall, but they hired someone else. Rojas worked for the Angels for the last 11 years.

2) Week or so ago, MLB Network ran a replay of the Bronx-Boston playoff game from 1978, the Bucky Dent game. Seems like 1,000 years ago; I was still in college. A million things are different now than they were then, but these stood out:

— There were no ads on the Green Monster
— There were no graphics on the TV screen, except after each half-inning.
— The first baseman for Boston (George Scott) wore a batting helmet in the field.
— It was a day game; wouldn’t be today. TV would want the game at night.
— There were no (zero, none) mention of pitch counts.
— Bucky Dent only hit 40 homers in his MLB career; his homer in this game made him an iconic figure in New York sports.
— Bronx had acquired him for LaMarr Hoyt and Oscar Gamble. Hoyt won 43 games for Chicago in 1982-83.

1) If you’re on Twitter, and you want to follow someone who will make you smile nearly every day, follow former NBA player Rex Chapman. He posts all kinds of stuff, lot of unusual animal videos. Guaranteed he will make you smile at least once a day; these days, we can all use that.

Sunday, Chapman posted a video of a bear on a golf course, trying to get the flag out of a hole on one green, but instead the bear winds up dancing with the pole. Funny stuff.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Divisional Odds: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Moves
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady and the Bucs are 0-2 SU and ATS against the Saints this season, but they'll get a third crack in the NFC divisional round. The SuperBook opened New Orleans -5.5 and very quickly went to -3.5.

NFL divisional playoff betting is on deck, and NFL divisional round odds are on the board and getting action for the four matchups. Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the surprising Cleveland Browns, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints meet for the third time this season.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL divisional playoff opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Divisional Round Odds


Rams at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -7, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
Los Angeles and its banged-up quarterback corps somehow went to Seattle on Wild Card Weekend and knocked out the third-seeded Seahawks 30-20 Saturday. Jared Goff didn't start for the Rams against Seattle, due to his thumb injury, but backup John Wolford suffered a neck injury in the first quarter, and Goff had to jump in. On Sunday night, both were questionable for the Saturday night divisional game.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and top-seeded Green Bay had a bye week and got some rest this weekend.

"Not much action to report there," Murray said Sunday night, noting the line was stable at Packers -7. "We were happy to see this game in the first time slot of the weekend. If that was the last game of the weekend, every parlay would've gone to the Packers, and it could've been a huge-exposure game."


Ravens at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills -2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Josh Allen and No. 2 seed Buffalo stemmed Indianapolis' late comeback bid to claim a 30-27 victory Saturday, the Bills' first playoff win since the 1995-96 season. Fifth-seeded Baltimore went to No. 4 seed Tennesee on Sunday and dug itself a 10-0 first-quarter hole, but didn't give up another point until the fourth quarter in a 20-13 victory.

"The Bills are still at -2.5. That's gonna be a huge-handle game," Murray said. "The public loves both teams right now. Great two-way volume."


Browns at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs -9.5, Over/Under 54

Why the line moved
Cleveland punched No. 3 seed Pittsburgh in the mouth by taking a 28-0 first-quarter lead, largely aided by three turnovers, then held the Steelers enough in check to notch a 48-37 victory Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, meanwhile, rested up for the divisional round, getting a bye week as the AFC's No. 1 seed.

"The Chiefs are up to -10 from -9.5, but that could come down," Murray said. "I think the Browns will be a very square 'dog on Sunday."


Buccaneers at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -5.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and fifth-seeded Tampa Bay got more than they could've expected from backup Washington QB Taylor Heinicke, but prevailed 31-23 on Wild Card Saturday. On Wild Card Sunday, No. 2 seed New Orleans slogged to a 21-9 win over Chicago, setting up the third meeting this season between these NFC South rivals.

The Saints won both regular-season clashes, opening the season with a 34-23 home victory, then posting a 38-3 rout at Tampa on Nov 8. But early action was swift on the underdog Bucs.

"We opened Saints -5.5 and the sharp guys flooded us with Bucs bets, so that disappeared quickly," Murray said Sunday night. "We moved down to -3.5."

The total was also on the move Sunday night, jumping up two points to 51.5.


*******************

NFL Divisional Round Betting Tips: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Early money thinks Buffalo was lucky to escape the Colts in the Wild Card Round and is taking the Bills down from -3 to -2.5 vs. Baltimore. If your money is on Bills Mafia in the Divisional Round, wait and see how low this spread with go.

The NFL playoffs are down to four final matchups for Divisional Round betting and the spreads and totals for those games still have that new car smell after hitting the board late Sunday night.

These will be some of the toughest NFL lines to beat all season, as bookies and bettors know the remaining eight teams inside and out. That makes getting the best of the number all that more important and remains the sharpest NFL betting strategy for the Divisional Round games.

These are our best NFL betting tips for which Divisional Round odds to bet now and which ones to bet later.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7): Bet Now

The Packers earned one of the exclusive postseason byes into the Divisional Round, giving them time to rest up and study their potential opponents. Aaron Rodgers & Co. finished the schedule on a six-game winning streak, averaging 33.5 points per game during that red-hot run (4-2 ATS)

The Rams defense will put that scoring attack to the test. Los Angeles smothered the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Round and has limited its last five foes to 14.6 points per contest. However, L.A. does have some injury concerns entering the next round of the playoffs. Pass rush god Aaron Donald is nursing tender ribs, top WR Cooper Kupp is cutting on a sore knee, and QB Jared Goff is still healing up from thumb surgery just three weeks ago (remember, he didn't get the start in the Wild Card Round). All three are expected to suit up, however.

Some books are dealing the Packers as touchdown chalk while others are at Green Bay -7.5. The weather in Wisconsin is going to be cooler than a polar bear’s toe nails this weekend and the Pack are 4-2 SU and ATS at Lambeau Field in the postseason since Rodgers took over the QB1 gig. If you’re taking a big bite of Cheese this weekend, make sure you get it now at -7 and avoid having that half-point hook stuck in your throat.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-3): Bet Later

Even before the Browns and Steelers were at halftime, some online books had this AFC Divisional Round spread on the board. Buffalo opened as a field goal fave at home but the vig was giving back +106, indicating that any early money on Baltimore could bump this under the key number of a field goal.

Buffalo edged Indianapolis by three points as touchdown chalk at home in the Wild Card Round, despite the Colts purely outplaying the Bills, out-gaining them 472 yards to 397 yards and dominating time of possession to the tune of 34:17.

All the Ravens did this past weekend was go into Tennessee and earn their sixth straight win and cover with a solid two-way effort, most notably limiting the Titans’ fourth-ranked scoring attack to just 13 points. Momentum is worth its weight in gold during the postseason.

Some offshore books have already taken this spread down a half-point tick, dealing Buffalo -2.5 (-120). If your bookie is still hanging Bills -3 and you like the home side in this AFC Divisional Round war, wait it out. This one could fall even further before kickoff this weekend.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Under 51.5): Bet Later

To quote San Diego news legend Ronald Burgundy, “Boy that escalated quickly.”

The total for this NFC South trilogy hit the board as low as 49.5 points at some books and within minutes bounded as high as 51.5 (Over -115). Even after the Saints slow-played the Chicago Bears to a 21-9 win in the Wild Card Round, bettors are backing a fireworks display in the Big Easy this weekend.

This will be the third time these divisional foes have faced each other this season, with the teams going Over the 48.5-point total at NOLA way back in Week 1 and staying Under the 51 in Tampa in Week 9. The Saints won both games with scores of 34 and 38 points—the two highest point totals allowed by the Buccaneers this season.

But, besides all the offensive weaponry on both depth charts, we also have the No. 2 versus No. 5 defenses in DVOA at Football Outsiders butting heads in the Superdome. Neither team can afford the other to build momentum, so expect some offense on defense and a slower, plodding pace as they each try to ice their respective rival future Hall of Fame QB.

The Brady vs. Brees hype could continue adding points to this total, so if you like lower-scoring football, see if it goes 52 or higher before coming back on the Under.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (Under 54.5): Bet Now

How quick do you have to be to get the best of the NFL odds? Well, as of this writing the Browns are still working on the Steelers and some online books have already hung a line on Cleveland-Kansas City. For our purposes, we’re looking at the opening total of 54.5 points.

Cleveland just swamped Pittsburgh with plenty of points, however, some of that scoreboard work came from the defense. The Browns benefitted from a nightmare first half from Ben Roethlisberger and received plenty of extra reps with the football, so we’re not as smitten with this scoring attack as we are with Cleveland’s defense.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is Kansas City. Points could fall from the skies over Arrowhead this Sunday. But so could snow. The extended forecast in Missouri is calling for a chance of the white stuff this weekend. The Chiefs stop unit has snoozed a bit in the second half of the schedule but allows just 22 points per home game and can find another gear in the postseason, coming into the Divisional Round rested and ready off the bye.

If you like the Under, I’m going to say grab it now. The Browns offense isn’t as good as it looked in the Wild Card and staying ahead of possible bad weather is a smart move. Start following those Kansas City meteorologists on Twitter.

[StarDust Bum]

301LA RAMS -302 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in home games vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

303BALTIMORE -304 BUFFALO
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

305CLEVELAND -306 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

307TAMPA BAY -308 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 18-7 ATS (10.3 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.




NFL
Dunkel

Division Round






NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (11 - 6) at GREEN BAY (13 - 3) - 1/16/2021, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 122-88 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 207-150 ATS (+42.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 78-51 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (12 - 5) at BUFFALO (14 - 3) - 1/16/2021, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
BALTIMORE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games in playoff games since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (12 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (14 - 2) - 1/17/2021, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
KANSAS CITY is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (12 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 4) - 1/17/2021, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Division Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, January 16

LA Rams @ Green Bay
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Baltimore @ Buffalo
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, January 17

Cleveland @ Kansas City
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
Kansas City is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

[StarDust Bum]

NFC Divisional Round Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the NFC Championship continues this weekend in the NFL Divisional Playoff Round as four teams will look to advance to the conference championship game.

A pair of division winners (Washington and Seattle) has been eliminated, while Wild Card teams Tampa Bay and Los Angeles picked up road wins.

After losing in the NFC Championship last season, the Green Bay Packers own home-field advantage in the NFC as they are the top seed at 13-3.

NFC Matchups

1 Green Bay vs. 6 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans vs. 5 Tampa Bay

Odds to Win NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers +135
New Orleans Saints +200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +360
Los Angeles Rams +800

Matchup - L.A. Rams vs. Green Bay

Date: Saturday, January 16
Venue: Lambeau Field
Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV-Time: FOX, 4:35 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Packers -7, Total 46

L.A. Rams Road Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Green Bay Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Head-to-Head

The Packers and Rams last met in 2018 at the Los Angeles Coliseum as L.A. edged Green Bay, 29-27 as 7.5-point favorites. It marked the first win for the Rams over the Packers since 2006, but Green Bay has covered six consecutive matchups between the two teams.

Playoff Notes

This is the third ever meeting between these clubs in the postseason as the St. Louis Rams and the "Greatest Show on Turf" bounced Green Bay in the 2001 Divisional Round, 45-17.

The Rams are 3-2 SU/ATS under head coach Sean McVay in the playoffs after L.A. eliminated Seattle in the Wild Card Round, 30-20. That marked only the second 'over' in McVay's five playoff appearances.

The Packers are 10-8 with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback in the playoffs since 2009, which includes a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS mark at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in the Divisional Playoffs when having the bye, but the two victories came by exactly five points apiece.


Matchup - Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans

Date: Sunday January 17
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
TV-Time: FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Saints -3, Total 52

Tampa Bay Road Record: 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 O/U
New Orleans Home Record: 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

It's Round Three between these NFC South rivals as the Saints took care of the Buccaneers in each of the first two matchups by double-digits apiece. New Orleans topped Tampa Bay in Tom Brady's debut with the Buccaneers in Week 1 at the Superdome, 34-23. The Saints returned a Brady interception for a touchdown and won as four-point favorites in spite of gaining 271 yards of offense.

In the second matchup at Raymond James Stadium in early November, the Saints wrecked the Buccaneers as three-point underdogs, 38-3 for their fifth straight win in the series. New Orleans outgained Tampa Bay, 420-194, while the Saints held the ball for 40 minutes.

Playoff Notes

New Orleans and Tampa Bay are hooking up for the first time ever in the postseason, while the Saints look to improve on a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS record under head coach Sean Payton at home in the second round.

The Buccaneers picked up their first playoff win since 2007 after edging Washington last week, 31-23 as 10-point favorites. Brady is undefeated in his last eight divisional round appearances, although they all came at home as a member of the Patriots. The last time Brady played on the road in the divisional round came at San Diego in 2006 as New England escaped with a 24-21 victory.

The last time Tampa Bay played in the divisional round was back in 2002, when the Bucs rolled the 49ers, 31-6 and eventually captured their first and only Super Bowl in franchise history.