The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

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AFC Divisional Round Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the AFC Championship goes through Kansas City as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will take the field for the first time in the postseason.

The top-seeded Chiefs host the Browns, who shocked the Steelers in the Wild Card round to win their first playoff game since 1994.

The Bills last won a postseason game in 1995 prior to their victory over the Colts on Saturday. Buffalo advances to host Baltimore, who knocked out Tennessee in the Wild Card round.

AFC Matchups

1 Kansas City vs. 6 Cleveland
2 Buffalo vs. 5 Baltimore

Odds to Win AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs -125
Buffalo Bills +280
Baltimore Ravens +400
Cleveland Browns +1200

Matchup - Baltimore vs. Buffalo

Date: Saturday, January 16
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Bills -2, Total 50

Baltimore Road Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Buffalo Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

These squads did not meet this season, but Baltimore won at Buffalo in 2019 as 6.5-point favorites, 24-17. Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes in the victory, marking the fifth straight win for Baltimore over Buffalo since 2010.

Playoff Notes

The Ravens improved to 6-1 in the Wild Card round under head coach John Harbaugh with the 20-13 triumph over Tennessee, avenging last season's loss to the Titans in the divisional round.

However, Baltimore owns a 2-3 road record in the divisional round during Harbaugh's tenure with the two wins coming at Tennessee in 2008 and at Denver in 2012, which ultimately led the Ravens capturing Super Bowl XLVII over the 49ers.

Buffalo won its first playoff game in 25 years against Indianapolis, ending a six-game postseason skid dating back to 1995. The last time the Bills picked up a victory in the divisional round of the playoffs came way back in 1993 against the L.A. Raiders, as Buffalo owns a perfect 4-0 record in franchise history at home in this round.

The Ravens and Bills have never faced each other in the playoffs, as Buffalo will have now faced every current team in the AFC North in the postseason at some point in franchise history.


Matchup - Cleveland vs. Kansas City

Date: Sunday January 17
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
TV-Time: CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Chiefs -10, Total 56

Cleveland Road Record: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Head-to-Head

This is the second meeting on the pro level between these former Texas Tech quarterbacks as Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs past Baker Mayfield and the Browns, 37-21 as 7.5-point road favorites in 2018.

Kareem Hunt scored three touchdowns for Kansas City, but the running back is now with Cleveland, making for an interesting storyline. The Chiefs and Browns are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time ever, while Cleveland is making its first trip to Arrowhead Stadium since 2015.

Playoff Notes

The Browns clinched their first postseason berth since 2002, when they ultimately lost to the rival Steelers in the Wild Card round. Fast forward 18 years later, Cleveland jumped out to a 28-0 first quarter lead to bounce Pittsburgh from the playoffs in a 48-37 triumph as five-point underdogs.

The Chiefs are fresh off their first Super Bowl title in nearly 50 years when they rallied past the 49ers last February. Kansas City is 4-1 in the playoffs with Mahomes as their starting quarterback, including a 3-1 mark at Arrowhead.

AFC top seeds won six consecutive divisional round games from 2013-18 before Baltimore was tripped up by Tennessee in 2019. Kansas City's four postseason victories under Mahomes' guidance have all come by 11 points or more.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Divisional Round Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Los Angeles' star pass rusher Aaron Donald injured his ribs versus Seattle in the Wild Card Round but is expected to play versus Green Bay in the Divisional Round.

A wild Wild Card Weekend is in the past, NFL Divisional Round odds are up, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably surrounding Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff and defensive lineman Aaron Donald.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Divisional Round Injuries

Los Angeles Rams: Star defensive lineman Aaron Donald left the Rams' road victory over Seattle with a rib injury, X-rays for which came back negative, but he's questionable for Saturday's game at Green Bay. Jared Goff (thumb) didn't start against the Seahawks, but backup John Wolford (neck) was injured early, forcing Goff to come in and lead the Rams to victory. As of Monday, coach Sean McVay hadn't committed to who would start against the Packers. Interestingly, however, The SuperBook moved the Rams from +7 to +6.5 Monday night

Buffalo Bills: Second-leading rusher Zack Moss (ankle) is out for the remainder of the postseason. The Bills opened -2.5 and on Monday afternoon dipped to -1.5 at The SuperBook for Saturday's home game against Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns: Cleveland is dealing with a potential cluster-injury situation on the offensive line, with guard Michael Dunn (calf) and right tackle Jack Conklin (hamstring) questionable for Sunday's game at Kansas City. The Browns opened +10 at The SuperBook and were still +10 Monday night.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Running back Ronald Jones II (quad), who sat out the Bucs' Wild Card win over Washington, is questionable for Sunday's game at New Orleans. However, Tampa Bay was at +3 Monday at The SuperBook, quickly moving from an opener of +5.5.


Divisional Round Weather

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay won't quite be the frozen tundra, but per usual in January, it won't be warm Saturday. Game temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s, with winds of 10-15 mph.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: It's a night game Saturday in Buffalo, so it'll be chilly no question. The early forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30s and winds of 10-20 mph. Still, the total ticked up from 49.5 to 50.5 Monday night at The SuperBook.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: The early forecast looks pretty good for a January Sunday in Kansas City, with temperatures in the mid-40s and a light breeze of 5-10 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 54 and quickly got to 55.5.

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Hot & Not Report - DP Angles
Matt Blunt

Divisional Playoff Betting Angles

Last week's stuff found some nice winners with the data from here and here, as the 'under' in the Baltimore/Tennessee game had more than one reference point and was never really in question.

The Ravens bucked the trend of the shortest WC favorite losing outright, as the Saints did against the number as the biggest favorite.

Fading Buffalo was also an option as the team that had the best ATS record during the regular season, and the playoff team with the worst – the Cleveland Browns – put together the most shocking performance of the weekend to push that run to 7-1-1 ATS the past nine years now.

Handicapping Cleveland is interesting this week because how much of last week do you throw out of the memory bank with head coach Kevin Stefanski back? Considering how many turnovers Cleveland benefited from in that Pittsburgh win, it almost makes the question a little harder.

The Browns do occupy a rather neat 16-game sample size dating back to realignment that I'll get to a bit later, but first it's a nice angle that comes from a reader's theory (thanks Jay) I was asked to look into before the Wildcard games even kicked off.

After doing the digging, I just hoped it would come up this week or beyond, and it only took the Bills game to go final for it to be applicable.

Therefore my apologies go out to Bills Mafia once again (although we both were happy last week with a Colts cover and Bills SU win), but if Buffalo's playoff run ends this week, I hope for their sake the saying “misery loves company” has some truth to it.

And Buffalo’s old pal Tom Brady could join them on the same ship.

Who's Hot

Since realignment, fading NFL playoff teams that won SU but fail to cover ATS (any round) is 25-8 SU and 15-17-1 ATS since realignment of 2002.

This is quite the angle to grasp but when you boil it down it does make a lot of sense to consider. And the SU and ATS disparity in numbers makes sense as well with it having enough times where it's a possible suspect Wildcard team going on the road against a team off a bye in the Divisional round.

But for it to hold true for all of the final three rounds is still pretty impressive, and quite the memory bank of plays to keep it in consideration every season, especially with it not being applicable once in last year's playoffs.

Teams to win SU but not cover the number could be victimized by lofty expectations on a number that's a TD or bigger like say the Bills and Buccaneers were last week. They could be a -4 favorite that squeaks out a late kick to break a tie/come back to win, or anything in between.

Either way there are some leaks in the games of those squads, and in scenarios where they are either on the road in the Divisional round, up against another very good team with a Super Bowl berth on the line, or in the Super Bowl itself, you advance in the NFL playoffs these days without an ATS win, your playoff run tends to not last much longer.

Who could you follow?

Baltimore
New Orleans

The duality of the SU and ATS numbers does create a few more puzzle pieces in the puzzle this week with the spreads in Buffalo and Tampa both being in the FG or less range.

Only one time in the last nine tries has a NFL team in this spot won the game outright though – 45-42 Jacksonville over Pittsburgh in 2017 – and 2018 saw the Rams make it all the way to the Super Bowl as the beneficiaries of the other end of this trend, beating Dallas after they failed to cover, and getting by New Orleans (won't say “beat” after the no PI) the following week after the Saints failed to cover.

The double-revenge spot for the Bucs is another layer to that cake in the other applicable game, especially with the latter loss being as ugly as it was (38-3 on SNF). Brady has been rather ruthless in his career when he's on a quest for another championship, and maybe that cutthroat nature returns in being the guy to retire Drew Brees.

After all, as great as these two future Hall of Fame QBs have been in their careers, this is also probably the closest thing we get to a WWE-style, “loser retires” matchup in the NFL, although who knows, Brady might go the George Blanda-route and transition to a kicker soon to play until he's 48 as well.

But one of these two may end up showing their age a little bit, in this matchup or beyond (for the winner), and even with this great historical angle suggesting it won't be the end for the Saints, a double revenge angle off the ugliest of losses for the Bucs isn't a spot that's fun to stand in front of either.

Understandable how it's hard to be confident in either side for this game.

Who's Not

Since realignment in 2002, backing NFL playoff teams to allow 30 or more points and win you are 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS. Those games are also 8-7-1 O/U

Cleveland put on quite the performance in that 48-37 win over the Steelers, as it was like everything that went against the Browns the entire week without practicing and coaches missing flipped to good luck all at the same time.

The huge early lead allowed Cleveland to play a soft shell much earlier than they ever would have expected, but the 30+ points they gave up in a win isn't the best omen for thinking they can take down Goliath aka Kansas City.

Who could you fade?

Cleveland Browns

Benefiting from five turnovers won't happen again for the Browns, but getting 10 points can look like a lot when you just saw the team nearly put up 50.

If there ever was a team that would be capable of winning a football game 60-50, it would be a Patrick Mahomes-led KC Chiefs team, and with only one team in each conference getting the bye this year, the positive effects of that time off could easily be amplified.

Yes, there have been plenty of bye teams laying an egg and going the one-and-done route each year, but those games also accounted for 100% of the action during the Divisional Weekend, as opposed to just 50% this season.

Cleveland is still a very bad defense against the pass – Ben Roethlisberger's numbers are considered slightly inflated because of game situation – and now they are going up against the QB who's the future of this game in that regard.

The basis behind this trend is generally that these teams have very leaky defenses (to give up that many), had a way above their head effort offensively to still win with 31 or more, and/or took full advantages of turnovers, special teams returns, shock plays etc, all of which can't particularly be counted on to happen again. It's tough to trust either of those likely offensive scenarios to duplicate themselves a week later, and now that leaky defense is going up against a far better offensive team.

But laying the -10 with Kansas City does come with concerns as well, as to how you grade a coach returning after a week off.

Players get healthy after a game and it's known what to expect from them, but with bias already naturally coming from what's been seen last, how does the coaching return/switch completely overshadow it. It should, but you can see why Cleveland + the points has been gaining some attraction in the market.

What peaked my interest about those numbers though was looking at the 'over' results being slightly ahead, and that being the side of the total that does have some attraction to it.

Cleveland may not benefit from all those turnovers again, but they don't even need half of what they put up a week ago to do more than enough to see an 'over' ticket cash here if the Chiefs are sharp and decide to keep their foot on the gas for the full 60 minutes with it being the playoffs now.

The run the Chiefs had going of winning SU games but failing to cover the spread was absurd this year (maybe that earlier angle applies to KC next week), and eventually that's got to flip one way or another.

At 6-10 SU for teams in the same spot as Cleveland this week, it suggests that flipping to a KC outright loss may not be the most likely (don't get me wrong, as does the -10 spread), and if KC does continue letting their foes hang around and finish inside the number, in that case, I'd rather be holding an 'over' ticket for the full game.

Cleveland's defense isn't likely to have tremendous success holding QB Mahomes and company down, and Browns QB Baker Mayfield is never shy about going down swinging if the game calls for it, as the Baltimore Ravens from a few Mondays ago can surely attest too.

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Saturday’s 6-pack
— Falcons hired Titans’ OC Arthur Smith as their head coach.
— Bronx re-signed DJ Lemahieu for six years, $90M
— Siena 78, Rider 69— 5-0 Saints win road game without their best player.
— UAB 61, Charlotte 37— Blazers led this game 24-1.
— Monmouth (-10) 92, Quinnipiac 80, OT— Bad Beat of the Week???
— Wisconsin 60, Rutgers 54— Scarlet Knights lost 5 of last 6 games.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 388,887
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“It’s no secret he’s disappointed in the (lack of) communication during the hiring process.”
Houston Texans’ owner Cal McNair, on his QB (Deshaun Watson) being unhappy on how the team chose its new general manager

Saturday’s quiz
Of all current NBA players, who has the most games with 20+ points/20+ rebounds?

Friday’s quiz
Before coaching Florida/Ohio State, Urban Meyer was a head coach at Utah, Bowling Green.

Thursday’s quiz
James Harden played his college basketball at Arizona State.

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Saturday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) Jacksonville Jaguars made some noise Thursday, hiring Urban Meyer as their new coach; it will be fascinating to see how this works out. 56-year old Meyer is 187-32 as a college coach, but has zero NFL experience, so who he hires as assistant coaches will be interesting.

Jaguars have four of the top 45 picks in April’s draft, have $74M in cap space, so they figure to get better fairly quickly.

Meyer seemed to have stress-related issues at Florida/Ohio State; can he deal with 9-7 or 8-8 being a great year with the Jaguars? Or 5-11 being a big improvement?

Again, Meyer was 187-32 in college; last three years, Jaguars are 12-36. This will be interesting.

12) There were murmurs on the Interweb Thursday night that Scott Linehan would be the new OC in Jacksonville. Linehan was head coach of the Rams from 2006-08, then OC in Detroit from 2009-13 and OC for Dallas from 2015-18. He was the OC at LSU this past season.

11) Detroit Lions hired LA Rams’ director of college scouting Brad Holmes as the team’s new GM; Holmes worked for the Rams for 17 years, starting out as a PR intern. He is the son of former Steelers’ lineman Mel Holmes, the nephew of Luther Bradley, who was the Lions’ first round draft pick in 1978.

Here’s what makes all this a little different; because Holmes is a minority, Rams will get two 3rd round draft picks, as part of the NFL’s new hiring initiatives- when one team hires a minority coach or a GM from another team, the other team gets two 3rd round picks as compensation.

10) Texas Longhorns hired Jeff Banks as their new special teams coach; the guy was making $750,000 as special teams coach at Alabama, will make $1M for doing the same thing at Texas.

9) Atlantic 14 pulled its conference tournament out of the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, will have it at a campus facility- they’ll be back in Barclays Center next year.

8) Purdue 81, Indiana 69:
— Purdue won last eight series games, last five visits to Bloomington.
— Purdue’s last four games were on the road, the first time since 1960 they played four straight conference games on the road. One of their home games was postponed because of COVID.

7) 76ers 125, Heat 108:
— Shake Milton scored 31 points in 27:00 off bench; 76ers were +24 with him on the floor.
— Ben Simmons had 12 assists, 10 rebounds, took only 8 shots. He is a unique player.

6) Something to look forward to: spring training for Korean baseball starts February 1st, two weeks from Sunday. Spring training for the major leagues starts February 17th.

5) Baseball stuff:
— Mets signed 1B/DH Jose Martinez, a solid right-handed bat
— Phillies signed reliever Archie Bradley, who was most recently with Arizona.

4) Former Red Sox/Cubs GM Theo Epstein got a job this week in the commissioner’s office as a consultant. According to a MLB statement, Epstein will “work with baseball analytics experts from the Commissioner’s Office and the Clubs to determine the likely effects of various contemplated rule changes.”

3) Blind resume for the Pro Football Hall of Fame:
One of these QB’s is in the Hall of Fame, one is not.
Player A: 62-63-4 career regular season record, 2-1 in playoffs. 173 TD passes, 220 INT’s
Player B: 72-72 career regular season record, 8-2 in playoffs. 164 TD passes, 198 INT’s.

Which of these two resumes do you think belongs to a Hall of Famer?

2) If you’re one of the morons who attacked the Capitol in Washington last week, and you had your cellphone with you, get ready to be arrested, since the phones have GPS tracking systems in them, so it is a matter of time until they find you and fingerprint you.

1) I’m a little annoyed that the Secret Service was spending $3,000 per month to rent a studio apartment, just so they could have a bathroom available to use while they protected Jared Kushner and his cruddy wife. The Kushner’s didn’t let the Secret Service, the people who were PROTECTING THEM, use one of the SIX BATHROOMS in their house. Oy.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Division Round

Sunday’s games

Cleveland (12-5) @ Kansas City (14-2)
— Cleveland won seven of its last nine games.
— Last week was new Browns’ first playoff win ever, their first playoff game since ‘02.
— Cleveland won five of its last six road games.
— Browns won six of their last eight games overall.
— Browns lost field position in eight of their last nine games.
— Cleveland gave up 28.0 ppg in their last six games.
— Mayfield is playing in his first NFL playoff game.

— Kansas City had last week off, also rested guys in Week 17.
— Chiefs won 10 of last 11 games, but are 0-7-1 ATS in last eight games.
— Chiefs are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 3-5 TY.
— Last eight games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg
— Last time Chiefs covered was November 1st against the Jets.
— Before winning Super Bowl LY, Chiefs had lost 12 of previous 14 playoff games.

— Chiefs won last three series games, by 6-4-16 points.
— Browns are 1-3 at Arrowhead, with lone win in 2009.
— Cleveland lost last two visits here, 23-17/17-13- their last visit here was 2015.

Tampa Bay (12-5) @ New Orleans (13-4)
— Last week’s win was Tampa Bay’s first playoff game since 2007.
— Tom Brady has a 31-11 career record in playoff games.
— Buccaneers won last five games, scoring 26-31-47-44-31 points.
— Last six games, Bucs converted 45-95 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay is 12-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Bucs won their last six road games; they’re 2-1 ATS as an underdog.

— New Orleans is 3-2 in its last five games, giving up 21 ppg.
— Saints are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.
— Five of New Orleans’ last 12 games were decided by exactly three points.
— Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten games overall.
— Under is 7-3 in Saints’ last ten games.
— Saints are 5-6 in playoff games, since winning Super Bowl 11 years ago.
— Brees is 9-8 in playoff games, 2-5 in 2nd+ playoff game of a year.

— Saints beat Tampa Bay twice this year, 34-23 (week 1), 38-3 (week 9).
— New Orleans led 17-7/31-0 at halftime of the two games.
— In 2nd meeting, Bucs ran ball five times for 8 yards, the whole game!!!

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SATURDAY, JANUARY 16
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAR at GB 04:35 PM

GB -7.5

O 45.0

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SATURDAY NIGHT PICK

BAL at BUF 08:15 PM

BAL +2.5

U 50.0

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DATE LEAGUE GAME SCORE STATUS PICK

NFL 2021 PLAYOFF RECORD:

01/16/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/10/2021 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
01/09/2021 5-1-0 83.33% +1950 Detail


TOTALS.............14-2-0......87.75%.............+ 59.00

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Sunday’s 6-pack
— Alabama 90, Arkansas 59— Crimson Tide is 6-0 in SEC
— Auburn 66, Kentucky 59— Wildcats slip to 4-8 this year.
— Baylor 68, Texas Tech 60— Gonzaga-Baylor is what people want to see.
— Virginia 85, Clemson 50— Game was 18-2 after the first 10:00.
— Utah St 64, San Diego St 59— Aggies are now 8-0 in Mountain West.
— Minnesota 75, Michigan 57— Wolverines’ first loss this season.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 395,372
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
Writer: “Whats it like hitting off of Sandy Koufax?”
Willie Stargell: “You ever drink coffee with a fork?”

Sunday’s quiz
Who did the Buffalo Bills play last time they were in a Super Bowl?

Saturday’s quiz
Of all current NBA players, Dwight Howard has the most games with 20+ points/20+ rebounds, with 51.

Friday’s quiz
Before coaching Florida/Ohio State, Urban Meyer was a head coach at Utah, Bowling Green.

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Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Apparently someone in the NCAA has gotten a copyright on the phrase ”Mask Madness” for this year’s NCAA tournament, which will be held entirely in Indiana. Sounds like there will be t-shirts sold.

12) Jets hired Robert Saleh as their new head coach; he is expected to bring Mike LaFleur with him from San Francisco to be the Jets’ new offensive coordinator.

Because Saleh is a minority, 49ers get a 3rd round draft pick this year, and one next year. That is part of the NFL’s new minority hiring initiative.

11) UCLA swept their Arizona road trip this season; last seven times UCLA swept their Arizona trip, here is how they made out in the NCAA tournament that year:

— won NCAA tournament once
— lost in championship game once
— made two other Final Fours
— made two other Elite 8’s
— made Sweet 16 the other year

So they’ve won 2+ NCAA tournament games the last seven times they swept in Arizona.

By the way, this is the first time since 1994 that UCLA started out 6-0 in Pac-12 play.

10) Florida State 82, North Carolina 75:
— Tar Heels are 8-5, 3-3 in ACC games.
— Carolina is turning ball over 21.5% of time (#265).
— UNC is #284 in eFG%; they were #309 last year; in the five years before that, their average ranking in that category was 88.8.

9) It is January 17 and Saint Louis hasn’t played a conference game yet, and they’re an NCAA-level team. Billikens are 7-1, with wins over LSU/NC State, but they haven’t played since two days before Christmas. They may wind up playing a lot of games in a short period of time.

8) Auburn has a 6-1 freshman G Sharife Cooper who became eligible three games ago; Auburn won two of the three games he’s played, scoring 83.7 ppg. Much more dynamic team with him in there; even when he went 3-13 from floor like he did Saturday, he also had eight assists.

7) There were 1,039 transfers in college basketball last year; there are 357 Division I hoop teams, so that works out to 2.91 transfers for EVERY team last year. College hoop is turning into baseball, with big $$$ schools pillaging the schools with fewer resources.

6) The founder of Jersey Mike’s sub shops is a guy named Peter; go figure.

5) Steph Curry is a very famous alumnus of Davidson College, but because he never graduated from the school, they’ve never retired his number. Wonder if that affects how much of a donation he gives them every year?

4) Portland Trailblazers’ C Jusuf Nurkic broke his wrist, is out eight weeks.

3) We posted these blind resumes yesterday:
One of these QB’s is in the Hall of Fame, one is not.

Player A: 62-63-4 career regular season record, 2-1 in playoffs. 173 TD passes, 220 INT’s
Player B: 72-72 career regular season record, 8-2 in playoffs. 164 TD passes, 198 INT’s.

Player A is Joe Namath, who is in the Hall of Fame; Player B is Jim Plunkett, who is not.

2) Green Bay 32, LA Rams 18:
— Packers scored the first five times they had the ball.
— Green Bay outgained LA, 484-244, converting 8-12 third down plays.
— Packers host NFC title game in first game next Sunday

1) Buffalo 17, Baltimore 3:
— Taron Jackson had a 101-yard pick-6 for the Bills.
— Lamar Jackson was KO’d from this game with a concussion.
— Buffalo hosts next week if Cleveland wins Sunday; otherwise, they go to Arrowhead.

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SUNDAY, JANUARY 17
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at KC 03:05 PM

CLE +9.5

U 57.0

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SUNDAY, JANUARY 17
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at NO 06:40 PM

TB +2.5

O 52.5

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NFL PLAYOFF BEST BETS:

Jan. 17, 2021..........CLEV 17........./.............KC 22.........CLEV + 9.5 WIN

Jan., 17, 2021.............TB................../.............NO...............TB + 2,5

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DATE LEAGUE GAME SCORE STATUS PICK

NFL 2021 PLAYOFF RECORD:

01/17/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/16/2021 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
01/10/2021 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
01/09/2021 5-1-0 83.33% +1950 Detail


TOTALS.............17-3-0......85.00%.............+ 68.50

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Monday’s 6-pack
— Green Bay (-4, 51) vs Tampa Bay in NFC title game
— Kansas City (-3, 54.5) vs Buffalo in AFC title game
— Purdue 80, Penn State 72— PSU is 3-5, hasn’t won since December 8
— Tulsa 58, Memphis 57— Tulsa won 7 of its last eight 8 games.
— Iowa 96, Northwestern 73— Wildcats lost their last five games.
— Virginia Tech 64, Wake Forest 60— Hokies are a surprising 11-2.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 395,372
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“This means everything to me. I didn’t know what was going on. It was a real surprise. It was breathtaking. It felt like I was in a movie or something.”
Oklahoma State basketball player Dee Williams, who was a walk-on and was working at his job at Wal-Mart, when OSU coach Mike Boynton showed up at the Wal-Mart and informed him that he had earned a scholarship to the team. All his teammates were watching on Zoom

Monday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Drew Brees originally play for?

Sunday’s quiz
Buffalo Bills lost 30-13 to Dallas, the last time they were in a Super Bowl, in January 1994

Saturday’s quiz
Of all current NBA players, Dwight Howard has the most games with 20+ points/20+ rebounds, with 51.

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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

13) New Orleans Saints lost a home playoff game Sunday, third year in a row they did that, but they’ve got nothing on the Kansas City Chiefs. From 1995-2017, the Chiefs went 0-7 in playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium, an amazing display of playoff futility.

Over a 23-year period, they went 0-7 in home playoff games. Oy.

Last year’s Super Bowl title quashed those bad memories, but now all Chief fans can stress out this week about Patrick Mahomes’ concussion.

12) They mentioned a cool stat Sunday that I had never heard of before; from 2012-15, Seattle Seahawks led at one point or another in 70 consecutive games, which is the all-time record. Right now, Kansas City has led in 60 consecutive games, so the record is within reach.

11) When I was a kid, I learned how to do math in my head by doing batting averages; if Sal Bando went 4-13 for a weekend, I knew that was .308. if Catfish Hunter gave up two runs in seven innings, I knew that was a 2.57 ERA. Stuff like that; decades later, when I was an adult, I actually got a job promotion because of my math skills. For real, a big promotion.

So when I see the Big EAST Conference has five teams in the midwest, it saddens me; how can kids learn geography if they think Nebraska is in the east?

— Xavier is in Cincinnati
— Creighton is in Omaha
— DePaul is in Chicago
— Marquette is in Milwaukee
— Butler is in Indianapolis

None of those cities are close to the east; they’re midwestern cities.

Big East needs to find a better name for the league, for education’s sake.

10) Houston Cougars are 11-1, with a win over Texas Tech; all 15 of their players have already tested positive for COVID at some point this season. They’ve got a shot at going a long way in March/Mask Madness.

9) Ivy League didn’t play basketball this winter, which means one less automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and one more at-large bid. Not sure what criteria will be used; some teams haven’t played in a while:

— 8-1 Villanova is a top 10 team; they haven’t played since December 23
— 7-1 Saint Louis hasn’t played a league game yet; they haven’t played since December 23.

When the bubble teams come more into focus, it’ll be fun to see how their resumes contrast.

8) College basketball upsets this weekend:
— Northern Arizona (+12) 62, Montana 58
— California (+11.5) 72, Utah 63
— Butler (+9) 70, Creighton 66
— Wm & Mary (+9) 69, Drexel 64 (Sunday)
— Georgia (+7.5) 78, Ole Miss 74
— IUPUI (+7) 65, Northern Kentucky 63

7) There are couple of very bad basketball teams in the Mountain West; so far this season, favorites of 15+ points are 8-1-1 ATS in conference games.

6) Odd Fact of the Day: Starting lineup for the Wisconsin Badgers is older than the starting lineup for the NBA’s Chicago Bulls.

5) James Harden made his debut for the Brooklyn Nets Saturday night; he put up 32 points, 12 rebounds, 14 assists in the Nets’ 122-115 win over Orlando. Not a bad opening act.

4) Sunday will be Aaron Rodgers’ 5th NFC title game, but the first one played at Lambeau Field; Green Bay lost the conference championship in Santa Clara LY to the 49ers.

3) Los Angeles Chargers didn’t have to look far for their next coach; they hired Brandon Staley, who was the Rams’ defensive coordinator this past season. Staley is 38, was a coordinator for one season; he comes from the Vic Fangio coaching tree.

Curious who his offensive coordinator will be, seeing how Sean McVay runs Rams’ offense, so he’ll be poaching someone off another coaching staff.

2) Kansas City 22, Browns 17:
— Mahomes (concussion) was KO’d in 3rd quarter; Chad Henne finished up at QB.
— Browns lost a goal-line fumble with 1:34 in first half, which turned out to be damaging.
— Chiefs outgained Cleveland 438-308; they host the Bills Sunday night.

1) Tampa Bay 30, New Orleans 20:
— Saints are first team since ’86-’88 Bears to lose home playoff game 3 years in a row.
— Brees threw three INT’s; New Orleans was minus-4 in turnovers.
— Buccaneers go to Lambeau Field for the NFC title game Sunday.