The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[Udog]

NFL Week 13 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Las Vegas running back Josh Jacobs suffered an ankle injury in a Week 12 loss against Atlanta. The Raiders officially ruled him out on Friday for Sunday's game against the Jets.

NFL Week 12 took quite a while to wrap up, but NFL Week 13 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably this week involving New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones.

Week 13 Injuries

New York Giants: The Giants, who believe it or not are tied atop the NFC East at 4-7, got good news early this week that Jones' hamstring injury doesn't appear to be serious. However, on Friday, the team announced that Jones is doubtful to play Sunday at Seattle. New York opened +9 at The SuperBook at Westgate, moved to +10 Monday, to +10.5 Friday morning and went to +11 after the update on Jones. The total opened 48.5, bottomed out at 46.5 Wednesday and actually moved up from 47 to 47.5 after the Jones update.

Las Vegas Raiders: Running back Josh Jacobs sprained an ankle in Sunday's blowout loss at Atlanta, and on Friday afternoon, the Raiders announced he would sit out Sunday's game at the New York Jets. The SuperBook immediately responded by moving Las Vegas from -9 to -8.5. Prior to that move, the Raiders opened the week -8.5, dropped to -7.5 and rebounded to -9.

Miami Dolphins: Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) could be a game-time decision for Sunday's home contest against Cincinnati. Matt Breida went on the reserve/COVID list Friday, further thinning Miami at running back. The Dolphins opened -11.5 and stayed there most of the week, but on Friday afternoon dipped to -10.5. The total initially fell from 43 to 41.5, but got back to 42.5 Thursday morning.

New England Patriots: On Friday afternoon, the Patriots-Chargers line moved from pick to Los Angeles -2, after news that New England QB Cam Newton (abdomen) is questionable for Sunday's matchup. The total also inched down a half-point to 47. Wideout Julian Edelman, already on injured reserve due to a knee injury, was placed on the reserve/COVID list Monday. Edelman was not expected back in Week 13.

Kansas City Chiefs: Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) is questionable for Sunday night's home game vs. Denver. The Chiefs dipped a notch Friday afternoon at The SuperBook, from -14 to -13.5.

Denver Broncos: Wideout Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and running back Phillip Lindsay (knee) are questionable Sunday night at Kansas City. However, the line at The SuperBook ticked from Broncos +14 to +13.5 Friday afternoon.

Minnesota Vikings: Running back Dalvin Cook was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday. The Vikings-Jaguars total dropped 1.5 points Thursday afternoon at The SuperBook, from 52.5 to 51, which is where the total opened. On the spread, however, The SuperBook on Wednesday moved Minnesota from the opener of -9.5 to -10, and the line remained -10 Thursday.

Atlanta Falcons: Wideout Julio Jones (hamstring) and Todd Gurley (knee) are questionable for Sunday's contest against New Orleans. However, the Falcons remained 3-point home underdogs, which they've been since Monday afternoon.

Chicago Bears: Wideout Allen Robinson (knee) is questionable for Sunday's home tilt against Detroit. However, The SuperBook's line has been steady at Bears -3 since Monday afternoon, after opening -3.5 and briefly getting as high as -5.5. And the total actually ticked up Friday from 44.5 to 45.

Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford (thumb) is questionable for Sunday's game at Chicago, but SuperBook oddsmakers appear to believe Stafford is a go, as this line remained stuck at Lions +3 Friday.


Week 13 Weather

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets: The updated forecast Thursday pretty much eliminated any chance of rain Sunday at MetLife Stadium, but winds of 10-20 mph are expected. The total went from 46 to 47.5 early in the week, then inched back to 47 Thursday morning at The SuperBook.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Early in the week, it appeared wind could be an issue Sunday in the Windy City. The updated forecast Thursday shows that to be much less likely, with very light winds and almost no chance of precipitation, either.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NO at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL +2.5
U 45.5

JAC at MIN 01:00 PM
U 51.0

CLE at TEN 01:00 PM
U 53.0

LV at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +7.5
O 47.0

CIN at MIA 01:00 PM
CIN +10.5
U 43.0

DET at CHI 01:00 PM
U 44.0

IND at HOU 01:00 PM
IND -3.0
U 50.5

NYG at SEA 04:05 PM
NYG +11.0
U 47.0

LAR at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI +2.5
O 48.5

PHI at GB 04:25 PM
PHI +7.5
O 49.5

NE at LAC 04:25 PM
LAC -2.0
U 47.0

DEN at KC 08:20 PM
DEN +13.5
U 51.5

[StarDust Bum]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals..........13-9-1......59.09%.....+15.50

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack
Odds to win the college football playoff:
4-5— Alabama
3-1— Clemson
7-2— Ohio State
14-1— Notre Dame
30-1— Florida
60-1— Cincinnati, Texas A&M

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 281,854
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“My emotions right now, I can’t even think straight. I’m just trying to wrap my head around this whole thing on what just happened.”
Detroit Lions’ coach Darrell Bevell

Monday’s quiz
Who was the Seahawks’ coach the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

Sunday’s quiz
Troy Aikman finished his college career at UCLA; he started it at Oklahoma.

Saturday’s quiz
Billie Jean King once played a judge on Law and Order.

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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

NJ Giants 17, Seattle 12
— Giants held Seattle without a TD until there was 6:09 left to play.
— Giants won their last four games, covered eight of last nine.
— Seven of Giants’ last eight games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Big Blue ran ball for 190 yards; Gallman had 135 of those.

— Seattle is 3-4 in its last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks led 5-0 at halftime, blocking a punt for a safety.
— Teams combined to convert only 7-25 on third down.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last five games.

Colts 26, Houston 20
— Houston had ball on 2-yard line with 1:30 left; a poor shotgun snap ended drive.
— Texans lost four of their six home games.
— Houston is 0-7 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Under is 6-0 in Houston’s home games this year.

— Last three games, Colts allowed 83 first half points.
— Indy won four of its last five road games.
— Colts are 7-1 when they score 26+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won four of its last five visits to Houston.

Lions 34, Chicago 30
— Detroit scored 14 points in last 2:18 for the unlikely win.
— Stafford was 27-42 passing, for 402 yards, three TD’s.
— Lions snap a 5-game losing streak to Chicago.
— Five of last six Lion games went over the total.

— Leading 30-27, Trubisky was sacked/fumbled on his own 10 with 1:49 left.
— Bears lost their last six games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago is 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Chicago has only four takeaways in its last six games (-7).

Miami 19, Bengals 7
— Boyd scored on a 72-yard TD pass in first quarter for first score of game.
— Boyd was later ejected after a scuffle; this was chippy game, five players got tossed.
— Cincinnati’s last 7 drives: 36 plays, 88 yards, zero points.
— Bengals lost last four games by a combined 94-43.

— Dolphins won/covered seven of their last eight games.
— Dolphins won/covered their last four home games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in six of eight wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
— Miami is 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

Minnesota 27, Jaguars 24 OT
— Jacksonville led 16-6 after a pick-6 early in third quarter.
— Jaguars tied game 24-all with 1:08 left, after a 75-yard drive.
— Glennon is 48-77/501 passing in his first two Jaguar starts, but he threw critical INT in OT.
— Jaguars lost last 11 games, but covered four of last five.

— Vikings won five of six games, are currently #7 seed in NFC.
— Minnesota won field position by 10 yards, first time this year they won this stat.
— Vikings have one win this season by more than 8 points.
— Cook ran ball for 120 yards, caught six passes for 59 yards.

Raiders 31, NJ Jets 28
— Carr hit single-covered Ruggs on 46-yard TD pass with 0:05 left.
— Raiders are 5-2 SU on road, winning by 4-8-10-5-3 points.
— Raiders are 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as road favorites.
— Waller caught 13 passes for 200 yards, two TD’s.

— Jets stopped Raiders on downs in red zone with 1:37 left, didn’t get first down to ice game.
— For long term success of Jets, they need to get #1 pick and parlay it into a bounty of draft picks (or trade Darnold for picks); only a very cynical person would suggest that Ruggs was single covered to give Las Vegas a shot at the win.
— Winless Jets are 4-8 ATS; they ran ball for 206 yards.
— Johnson ran ball for 104 yards, Adams ran it for 74 more.

Saints 21, Atlanta 16
— New Orleans won its last nine games, covering last five.
— Saints allowed two TD’s on opponents’ last 44 drives.
— New Orleans won six of last seven games in this underrated rivalry.
— Last five Saint games stayed under the total.

— Falcons scored 13 points on four drives in red zone; no bueno.
— Atlanta had ball on Saints’ 20 in last 2:00, turned it over on downs.
— Atlanta is 2-4-1 ATS in last seven games as home underdogs.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under the total.

Browns 41, Tennessee 35
— Browns in first half: six drives- five TD’s and a field goal.
— Mayfield is first Cleveland QB since 1951 to throw 4 TD’s in first half of a game.
— Cleveland won its last four games overall, by 3-5-2-6 points.
— Last five games, Browns outscored foes 68-26 in first half.

— Down 38-7 at half, Tennessee got within 41-35 with 0:28 left.
— 3rd down conversions: Browns 10-16, Titans 2-10.
— Over is 8-2-1 in Titans’ last 11 games.
— Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.

Rams 38, Arizona 28
— Rams won last seven series games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last four.
— LA has outscored opponents 157-82 in second half of games.
— Rams converted 9-15 third down plays, had 30 first downs.
— Goff was 37-47 passing, for 351 yards.

— Arizona hit 59-yard TD pass on first series; rest of half, they ran 18 plays for 46 yards.
— Cardinals allowed 30.7 ppg in their last six games.
— Redbirds lost four of five games since their bye week.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 12 games.

Green Bay 30, Eagles 16
— Eagles lost last four games, by 10-5-6-14, scoring 17-17-17-16 points.
— QB Hurts came off bench, was 5-12/109 passing, throwing a TD pass.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Reagor ran a punt back 73 yards for Philly’s second TD.

— Green Bay won four of its last five games, scoring 31-41-30 last three weeks.
— Packers sacked Wentz/Hurts seven times.
— Green Bay is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— First time in nine games Packers outscored their opponent in 2nd half.

New England 45, LA Chargers 0
— Patriots ran punt back for a TD, blocked FG for a TD.
— New England won field position by 28 yards; that doesn’t count the two TD’s.
— New England won four of its last five games overall.
— Underdogs covered last eight Patriot games.

— Chargers lost their last five games, giving up 32.6 ppg.
— Last three games, LA converted only 14-47 third down plays.
— Chargers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.
— In their last nine games, Chargers gave up 27+ points every week.

Kansas City 22, Broncos 16
— Denver led this game 10-9 at halftime.
— Broncos lost five of last six games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
— Denver held Chiefs to four FG’s in four trips to red zone.
— Broncos ran ball for 179 yards, trying to keep their defense off field.

— KC didn’t score a TD until there was 1:06 left in third quarter.
— Tyreek Hill made a great catch for a TD in first half, but refs called it incomplete, and no one, not even Hill, realized he caught the ball, so call wasn’t challenged. Very strange play.
— Kansas City won its last 11 games vs Denver.
— Chiefs won their last six games overall, last four by total of 15 points.

Other scores from Sunday:
College football:
— USC 38, Washington State 13
— Western Kentucky 37, Charlotte 19

College hoop:
— Villanova 68, Texas 64
— West Virginia 80, Georgetown 71
— Georgia Tech 79, Kentucky 62— Wildcats are 1-3
— Xavier 77, Cincinnati 69
— Seton Hall 98, Penn State 92 OT
— San Diego State 65, Pepperdine 60

[StarDust Bum]

Washington vs. Steelers Week 13 Odds, Preview
Jonathan Willis

In a normal year, the only Monday night doubleheader would take place in Week 1. However, this is anything but a normal year, so the fourth Monday Night Football doubleheader of the 2020 season will take place on Monday, December 7.

The NFL was forced to reconfigure the schedules of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens after their Thanksgiving game was delayed three times, so Pittsburgh will host Washington prior to Buffalo taking on San Francisco this Monday night.

Week 13 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: Heinz Field
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Date: Monday, Dec. 7, 2020
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Alex Smith and Washington seek a third straight win as it battles undefeated Pittsburgh. (AP)

Washington-Pittsburgh Betting Odds

Spread: Steelers -7
Money-Line: Pittsburgh -340, Washington +280
Total: 42.5

2020 Betting Stats

Washington

Overall: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U
Road: 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 21.9 (Rank 24)
Defense PPG: 22.1 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 325.3 (Rank 26)
Defense YPG: 309.5 (Rank 4)

Pittsburgh

Overall: 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-5-2 O/U
Home: 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 28.8 (Rank 6)
Defense PPG: 17.1 (Rank 1)
Offense YPG: 346.5 (Rank 22)
Defense YPG: 298.9 (Rank 3)

How to Handicap Washington-Pittsburgh

There has been considerable line movement in this game. When the line was originally released last Sunday evening, Pittsburgh was a double-digit favorite.

The continued postponement of Pittsburgh’s game with Baltimore will likely give Washington an edge though, as the visitors have had almost an extra week to prepare. That led to an adjustment in the line and solid action on Washington once the number was available.

Pittsburgh is the NFL’s last unbeaten team. The Steelers are 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS. They have been favored in all but two games this season, yet four of their last six wins have been by five points or less.

Pittsburgh didn’t get ahead of the number until the fourth quarter last week against Baltimore, and the Steelers’ hopes for a cover were dashed when a poor decision by Terrell Edmunds led to a 70-yard touchdown reception for Marquise Brown.

Washington hasn’t seen the field since Thanksgiving. This team is tied with the New York Giants for first place in the NFC East at 4-7. Three of Washington’s four victories came against NFC East opponents, and the only win aside from that was over Cincinnati two weeks ago. Washington is out to win its third straight game following the team’s 41-16 throttling of Dallas.

Betting Analysis - Washington Football Team

2020: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U

Although Alex Smith’s comeback is a feel-good story, his play on the field has been mediocre at best. Smith has largely been dinking and dunking underneath, completing 69 percent of his passes for 6.9 YPA with three touchdowns and five interceptions.

Smith has been marginalized in Washington’s last two wins, throwing for 166 yards against Cincinnati and 149 yards against Dallas.

The run game has looked much better the last couple weeks with Antonio Gibson leading the charge. Gibson averaged 5.9 YPC against the Bengals and 5.8 YPC against the Cowboys. He is averaging 4.6 YPC on the season, and his only three games with more than 60 rushing yards have been Washington’s last three victories.

Star receiver Terry McLaurin is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. McLaurin has been the only reliable part of this offense, and he has been significantly better than Washington’s other receivers.

The second-year player out of Ohio State has 69 receptions for 963 yards and three touchdowns, and the next two top receivers on the team are RB J.D. McKissic (338 yards) and TE Logan Thomas (328 yards). If McLaurin is unable to play, this offense is in serious trouble.

The Steelers rank first in sack percentage, but Washington is right behind them thanks to the most intimidating defensive line in the NFL. This franchise has used a first-round pick on a defensive lineman for four straight years.

The laser focus on this one position group has led to a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks thanks to Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne. That has made things a lot easier for the cornerbacks so Washington ranks second in the NFL, allowing 194.2 YPG through the air.

Betting Analysis - Pittsburgh Steelers

2020: 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-5-2 O/U

Ben Roethlisberger is listed as questionable to play on Monday night. Roethlisberger is expected to start after practicing on Sunday though, so the Steelers won’t have to deal with the ineffective quarterback play that plagued them in 2019.

While Big Ben is no longer the quarterback he was a few years ago, he is still an above average signal caller. He is avoiding mistakes, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 2,800 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.

However, his 6.5 YPA is telling regarding how this offense has changed. Roethlisberger is no longer stretching the field often with mid to deep range passes as Pittsburgh’s receivers are averaging an NFL-worst 10.2 YPR.

The Steelers do have a quartet of talented receivers in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, and Chase Claypool. The rookie has been the most impressive of the bunch, leading the team with 611 yards (13.6 YPR) and eight touchdowns. However, fumbles have been a major problem for Claypool (three) and the receiving corps as a whole (six).

The most underrated unit on the Steelers is the offensive line. Pittsburgh lost two starting offensive linemen in the season opener, but Roethlisberger has only been sacked 10 times in 11 games.

Unfortunately, the offensive line will be without its rock against Washington as Maurkice Pouncey will miss the game. Top running back James Conner won’t play either, leaving Benny Snell Jr. as the Steelers’ No. 1 option at running back.

Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league. The Steelers rank first in DVOA, first in scoring defense (17.1 PPG) and third in total defense (298.9 YPG). However, this defense lost another one of its standout linebackers as Bud Dupree suffered a season-ending injury against Baltimore. Dupree and Devin Bush are now lost for the year, so the linebacking corps can’t afford another big injury. Cornerback Steven Nelson is listed as doubtful.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

Washington leads Pittsburgh 42-33-3 all-time in this series between original NFL teams. Washington’s last victory came all the way back in 1991 though, as the Steelers have won six straight games. The last five victories have all been by more than one score.

Last Meeting

Pittsburgh cruised to a 38-16 victory in the 2016 season opener between these two teams. Roethlisberger ended the day with 300 yards and three touchdowns, while DeAngelo Williams ran for 143 yards and two scores. Antonio Brown had eight receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns for the Steelers.

Notable Betting Trends

-- The under has cashed in four of the last five games between these teams
-- Pittsburgh is 6-3 ATS as a favorite in 2020
-- Washington is 1-3 ATS as a dog of seven or more points

Key Injuries

Washington

LB Jared Norris: Hamstring - Probable
S Deshazor Everett: Ankle - Questionable
LB Ryan Anderson: Knee - Questionable
T Cornelius Lucas: Ankle - Questionable

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger: Knee - Probable
DE Stephon Tuitt: COVID - Probable
CB Steven Nelson: Knee - Questionable
RB Jaylen Samuels: Quad - Questionable
RB James Conner: COVID - Questionable
C Maurkice Pouncey: COVID - Questionable
LB Bud Dupree: Knee - Out

2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
Over-Under: 5-7

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Bills vs. 49ers Week 13 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

We get another Monday Night doubleheader this week thanks to all the scheduling changes this league has had recently, but the game that was always slated to be in this spot is the non-conference tilt between the Bills and 49ers.

The two teams come into this game with very different goals, as San Francisco is trying to scratch and claw it's way back to a playoff spot to at least have a shot at defending their NFC title, while Buffalo's trying to fend off the Dolphins in the AFC East race.

Miami is expected to take care of their business rather easily on Sunday in hosting the Bengals, so theoretically, Buffalo could come into this MNF affair tied atop the division. That provides a whole different type of sweat to all those bettors that were certain Buffalo would win the AFC East this year because the Patriots wouldn't.

The latter half of that hypothesis will likely come true, but Buffalo still has their hands full with Miami trying to hunt them down with both teams having very tough home games on deck next week (Buffalo hosts Pittsburgh, Miami hosts KC) with a Week 17 showdown between the two AFC East rivals looking like it may decide the division.

That means we are likely to see Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills teammates quite frequently under the prime time lights this month. Can we start that run with a winner in this MNF game against a Niners team with just as much to fight for right now.

Week 13 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: State Farm Stadium
Location: Glendale, Arizona
Date: Monday, Dec. 7, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

San Francisco seeks back-to-back wins as it battles Buffalo at State Farm Stadium from Arizona. (AP)

Bills-49ers Betting Odds

Spread: 49ers -1
Money-Line: San Francisco -110, Buffalo -110
Total: 47

2020 Betting Stats

Buffalo

Overall: 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-3-1 O/U
Road: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 10)
Defense PPG: 25.6 (Rank 18)
Offense YPG: 372.5 (Rank 11)
Defense YPG: 373.1 (Rank 21)

San Francisco

Overall: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U
Home: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.7 (Rank 20)
Defense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 11)
Offense YPG: 362.9 (Rank 14)
Defense YPG: 315.2 (Rank 6)

Handicapping the Total

With all the injuries the 49ers have dealt with this season, clawing their way back into a playoff spot in the NFC would be quite the huge accomplishment. QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle have both been out since Week 8 for the 49ers, and head coach Kyle Shanahan was hopefully, but non-committal, this week in talking about hopefully getting both of those guys back for the final few weeks of the year.

If that's indeed on the table, San Francisco has got to do their best to make those games mean something for this year, and that means taking care of business each and every week until then. Those two players shouldn't be considered saviours of the organization by any means, but Kittle especially is a huge upgrade at his position.

I bring all this up because we've already seen some early support for the 49ers this week, as an opening number of +2.5 on San Fran has been bet down to it's current standing. Clearly the 49ers side is something bettors have little issue getting behind and if a SF win is on the horizon here, 49ers wins this year have been correlated with San Francisco playing quite well defensively.

San Fran is 2-3 O/U in their five victories this year, but the two 'overs' came in Weeks 2 and 3 of the season during their two-week stay in New York to beat up on the Jets and Giants. Those games barely got 'over' the number with San Francisco scoring 31 and 36 points themselves in those games.

Which brings me to the point totals of those foes the 49ers have vanquished this year. They held the Jets to 13, the Giants to 9, the Rams to 16 and 20 (swept the season series), and the Patriots to 6 points.

That five-game average of 12.8 points allowed in wins is spectacular for the 49ers, and you've got to figure that with far fewer weapons available to them relative to the Bills, any 49ers win will have some correlation to another strong defensive game by them.

Defense is something the Bills have improved on recently, at least in terms of getting off the field on 3rd down. Through their past three games, Buffalo's defense ranks 4th in opponent third down conversion percentage (26.83%), trailing just the Steelers, Giants (oddly enough) and Saints in that category.

For Buffalo to put up those numbers when their three opponents in that stretch were Seattle, Arizona, and the Chargers, it's an improvement that can't be overlooked in the slightest.

The 49ers are just a few spots behind Buffalo in that regard as well, sitting 8th in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage over their last three games too (32.43%).

Those defensive numbers for Buffalo tend to get lost in the fact that they've given up Hail Mary completions in each of their last two games overall, costing them a win (and subsequent breathing room in the AFC East) in the process. Add in the fact that Seattle put up 34 on the Bills as well, and the Chargers deserving more than the 17 points they scored a week ago, and the reputation of Buffalo being an 'over' team this season is going to be hard to shake for some.

Buffalo's 7-0-1 O/U run off a win, and 7-3-1 O/U record this year feeds into those 'over' leans already, but in the previous (2) times the Bills have found themselves in the stand alone game spotlight (Tuesday vs Tennessee in Week 5, and Monday in Week 6 vs KC) they put up 16 and 17 points respectively.

A lot more variables went into those two games, not the least of which being they were up against two very good teams there, but this Bills team that most of the market has been waiting on (and anointing) to finally take that next step, always seem to put their worst foot forward when they reach the foot of that step.

Put it all together and the only way to look at this total would be to go low here. Buffalo's 'over' record is in part why this number appears to be a shade to high in my view, as Buffalo's woeful defense from earlier in the year still holds a lot of weight in any narrative surrounding a Bills game.

The fact that Buffalo's recent 3rd down improvement on defense gets lost in the higher scores and inability to defense Hail Mary's is another factor in having this total where it is, but it's also not Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, or Justin Herbert they are going up against. It's Nick Mullens. Enough said.

Under or pass.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 16, 2016 - Buffalo 45 vs. San Francisco 16, Bills -7.5, Over 44
Oct. 7, 2012 - San Francisco 45 vs. Buffalo 3, 49ers -10, Over 45.5
Nov. 30, 2008 - San Francisco 10 at Buffalo 3, 49ers +6.5, Under 43

Handicapping the Side

Can't ignore this strong move the 49ers way and admittedly it does contribute to the 'under' thinking as well on the total.

But when you have a team like Buffalo who you know is going to be the default pick for many on Monday night simply based on team records and having their starting QB, the fact that an opening number of -2.5 on Buffalo never came close to going up to -3 with (likely) majority support is rather telling.

Oddsmakers clearly never wanted to hang a +3 on San Fran up there fearing a wave of 49ers money and it came anyways without even reaching that key number.

It's alright to like the 49ers side using that line move as support, but tough to confidently back them now at a far worse price, with no real opportunity to buy a half-point to artificially get a +3 ticket on San Francisco in hand. Remember, it's the 49ers who are the more desperate team in needing every win they could get right now, and there is always the possibility of Buffalo peaking ahead to that showdown with the undefeated Steelers next week.

Makes this side an easy one to pass on all the way around now, instead looking to go the live betting route in taking points with probably either side if the game flow feels right to do so. It's been three straight ATS wins for Buffalo these past three weeks – but they've also been outgained in total yards in three of their last four, the lone outlier being the win over Seattle where Buffalo had one more total yard.

If they get outgained by this mash group of 49ers on offense, chances are that early San Francisco money is going to be smiling come Tuesday morning. Let's not forget that Buffalo is also on a 1-4 ATS run against a team with a losing record, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four appearances on MNF too.

Key Injuries

Buffalo

LB Matt Milano: Pectoral - Questionable
TE Tyler Kroft: Quarantine - Questionable
T Cody Ford: Ankle - Out
WR John Brown: Ankle - Out

San Francisco

RB Tevin Coleman: Knee - Probable
WR Deebo Samuel: Hamstring - Probable
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles: Hamstring - Questionable
OL Tom Compton: Concussion - Questionable
CB Jamar Taylor: Knee - Out
CB K'Waun Williams: Suspension - Out

2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
Over-Under: 5-7

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 13
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Giants (+11, ML +420) at Seahawks, 17-12
Browns (+4, ML +180) at Titans, 41-35
Lions (+3, ML +135) at Bears, 34-30

The largest favorites to cover

Dolphins (-10) vs. Bengals, 19-7
Packers (-8.5) vs. Eagles, 30-16
Colts (-3) at Texans, 26-20

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Philadelphia Eagles-Green Bay Packers game was crazy if you were a side bettor supporting the visitors. The Eagles fell behind 14-3 at halftime, and 20-3 after 45 minutes. If you had Philadelphia +8.5, it wasn't a great feeling.

However, in the second half, Eagles head coach Doug Pedersen replaced struggling QB Carson Wentz with rookie QB Jalen Hurts, mainly for his mobility due to struggles and injuries along the offensive line. Things were looking up, as Hurts tossed his first NFL touchdown, and the Eagles got a 73-yard punt return from another rookie just 82 seconds later, as WR Jalen Reagor housed it to make it a game, 23-16. The Eagles were covering with 6:30 to go in regulation.

However, Eagles side bettors already know it wouldn't last. RB Aaron Jones found some daylight with just under three minutes remaining. He juked, danced down the sidelines, eluded several tacklers and received key blocks for a highlight-reel 77-yard back-breaking touchdown run to make it 30-16. Suddenly, 'under' (50.5) bettors were sweating. Hurts got the ball back and they were driving in Green Bay territory late. However, Hurts tossed an interception to stymie the drive, so Packers side bettors and under bettors were breathing a sigh of relief.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The game between the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans game was one to remember. Or one to forget, depending upon your wager.

At halftime, the Colts (-3) led 24-20, so 'over' (50) bettors were feeling overly excited, perhaps even looking ahead to their late-window bets or even bumping them up on an assumed victory. Surely there would be at least seven points for an easy 'over' in the second half, right?

Well, not only did those seven points for the over result never come, we didn't even get any offensive points at all. The offensive spigot was turned off tight, and we saw just one safety in the fourth quarter. After 44 total points in the first 30 minutes, yep, we had just TWO in the second 30 minutes. Unreal loss if you were holding an 'over' ticket.

We should have had an over, though. And Texans side bettors were also left shaking their heads at the end of this one. The Texans had 2nd and goal from the Indianapolis 2, but QB Deshaun Watson fumbled, and the Colts covered it up for the win, cover and they helped the 'under' hang in there, too.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Cincinnati Bengals-Miami Dolphins (43), and the result was never in doubt. The Bengals fired out to a 7-0 lead, as WR Tyler Boyd hauled in a long touchdown from QB Brandon Allen. Unfortunately for the Bengals and their side bettors, the best receiver in stripes was ejected for his part in a brawl.

The game turned from there, as the Dolphins posted six in the second, going into the break down 7-6. It was all Dolphins from there, as they outscored the visitors 13-0 in the second half. Despite a low-scoring 19-7 win, they were able to cover the 10, too.

The highest total on Sunday was the Cleveland Browns-Tennessee Titans (54), and the 'over' was never in doubt here. Cleveland took a 10-0 lead after 15 minutes, and they piled up 28 points in the second quarter en route to a 38-7 halftime lead at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

After the Titans outscored the Browns 14-3 in the third quarter, we had a total of 55 points on the board, and 'over' tickets were already good to go. The Titans mounted a late flurry to cut it to 41-35, making moneyline bettors a little nervous, though.

In the first primetime game Sunday night, the Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs (51.5) game, surprisingly, was a defensive battle. The Chiefs had 10 points in the third quarter, but that was the only time either side had a double-digit total in a single quarter. We had just 38 total points on the board for the easy 'under' result.

With some rescheduling, the Washington Football Team-Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5) game and the originally scheduled Monday nighter between the Buffalo Bills-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) are still on tap, as is Tuesday's Dallas Cowboys-Baltimore Ravens (45) battle.

So far this season the under is 24-14 (63.2%) across 38 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 14

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Patriots hit the road in Week 13 and destroyed the Los Angeles Chargers by a 45-0 count, evening their overall record at 6-6 SU/ATS. Believe it or not, it's the first time this season the Patriots have covered in consecutive games. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 across the past four games for the Patriots, too.

New England is scheduled to stay in the Los Angeles area and they will face the Rams on Thursday night. The Rams are headed back from Arizona with a 38-28 win in tow. The 38 points marked a season high, and they're now 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four outings. Against AFC East teams, the Rams are 0-2 SU/ATS so far this season.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Titans are coming off a 41-35 loss at home against the Browns. The Jaguars gave it their all in Minnesota, but they fell in overtime against the Vikings. Both sides will meet at TIAA Bank Field.

The Titans have won and covered back-to-back games on the road, winning as underdogs. They'll be favored in this one. Perhaps being favored isn't what they want. Tennessee is just 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four as a favorite.

These teams met back in Week 2, with the Titans hanging on for a 33-30 win over the Jaguars as seven-point favorites, another non-cover and 'over' (44.5) result. The over is 4-0 in the past four for Tennessee, and 9-1-1 across the past 11 for the Titans.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Packers held on for the 30-16 win and cover against the Eagles. It's the first time the Packers have covered in consecutive games, and they've done so as favorite of 7.5 or higher in each outing.

The Lions registered a 34-30 win on the road against the Bears, picking up the victory for interim head coach Darrell Bevell. In case you're scoring at home, interim coaches are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in their first game after taking the new reins.

These teams faced each other at Lambeau Field in Week 2, with the Packers doubling up the Lions 42-21 as seven-point favorites as the 'over' (51) connected.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Ravens blasted the Browns by a 38-6 score in Week 1, easily covering a seven-point number as the 'under' (47) connected.

Baltimore will actually be coming off a short week, as they're scheduled to play Tuesday against the Cowboys at M&T Bank Stadium in Balto. The Browns will have two more days to rest and recover. The Browns enter 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS across the past four outings overall.

The weather has been dismal in Cleveland for the past three games at FirstEnergy Stadium. They averaged just 12.7 PPG in the past three home games, played in two games with a wintry mix and windy conditions, and a steady rain last time out in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Looking ahead to Monday's weather forecast, it's supposed to snow for most of the day Sunday, and into Monday morning. It should change over to rain Monday afternoon before the precipitation pulls out. However, we still have a week before the forecast is fine tuned, and if the system slows down, perhaps weather also affects this one, keeping scores down. We'll see.

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

NJ Giants 17, Seattle 12
— Giants held Seattle without a TD until there was 6:09 left to play.
— Giants won their last four games, covered eight of last nine.
— Seven of Giants’ last eight games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Big Blue ran ball for 190 yards; Gallman had 135 of those.

— Seattle is 3-4 in its last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks led 5-0 at halftime, blocking a punt for a safety.
— Teams combined to convert only 7-25 on third down.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last five games.

Colts 26, Houston 20
— Houston had ball on 2-yard line with 1:30 left; a poor shotgun snap ended drive.
— Texans lost four of their six home games.
— Houston is 0-7 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Under is 6-0 in Houston’s home games this year.

— Last three games, Colts allowed 83 first half points.
— Indy won four of its last five road games.
— Colts are 7-1 when they score 26+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won four of its last five visits to Houston.

Lions 34, Chicago 30
— Detroit scored 14 points in last 2:18 for the unlikely win.
— Stafford was 27-42 passing, for 402 yards, three TD’s.
— Lions snap a 5-game losing streak to Chicago.
— Five of last six Lion games went over the total.

— Leading 30-27, Trubisky was sacked/fumbled on his own 10 with 1:49 left.
— Bears lost their last six games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago is 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Chicago has only four takeaways in its last six games (-7).

Miami 19, Bengals 7
— Boyd scored on a 72-yard TD pass in first quarter for first score of game.
— Boyd was later ejected after a scuffle; this was chippy game, five players got tossed.
— Cincinnati’s last 7 drives: 36 plays, 88 yards, zero points.
— Bengals lost last four games by a combined 94-43.

— Dolphins won/covered seven of their last eight games.
— Dolphins won/covered their last four home games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in six of eight wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
— Miami is 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

Minnesota 27, Jaguars 24 OT
— Jacksonville led 16-6 after a pick-6 early in third quarter.
— Jaguars tied game 24-all with 1:08 left, after a 75-yard drive.
— Glennon is 48-77/501 passing in his first two Jaguar starts, but he threw critical INT in OT.
— Jaguars lost last 11 games, but covered four of last five.

— Vikings won five of six games, are currently #7 seed in NFC.
— Minnesota won field position by 10 yards, first time this year they won this stat.
— Vikings have one win this season by more than 8 points.
— Cook ran ball for 120 yards, caught six passes for 59 yards.

Raiders 31, NJ Jets 28
— Carr hit single-covered Ruggs on 46-yard TD pass with 0:05 left.
— Raiders are 5-2 SU on road, winning by 4-8-10-5-3 points.
— Raiders are 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as road favorites.
— Waller caught 13 passes for 200 yards, two TD’s.

— Jets stopped Raiders on downs in red zone with 1:37 left, didn’t get first down to ice game.
— For long term success of Jets, they need to get #1 pick and parlay it into a bounty of draft picks (or trade Darnold for picks); only a very cynical person would suggest that Ruggs was single covered to give Las Vegas a shot at the win.
— Winless Jets are 4-8 ATS; they ran ball for 206 yards.
— Johnson ran ball for 104 yards, Adams ran it for 74 more.

Saints 21, Atlanta 16
— New Orleans won its last nine games, covering last five.
— Saints allowed two TD’s on opponents’ last 44 drives.
— New Orleans won six of last seven games in this underrated rivalry.
— Last five Saint games stayed under the total.

— Falcons scored 13 points on four drives in red zone; no bueno.
— Atlanta had ball on Saints’ 20 in last 2:00, turned it over on downs.
— Atlanta is 2-4-1 ATS in last seven games as home underdogs.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under the total.

Browns 41, Tennessee 35
— Browns in first half: six drives- five TD’s and a field goal.
— Mayfield is first Cleveland QB since 1951 to throw 4 TD’s in first half of a game.
— Cleveland won its last four games overall, by 3-5-2-6 points.
— Last five games, Browns outscored foes 68-26 in first half.

— Down 38-7 at half, Tennessee got within 41-35 with 0:28 left.
— 3rd down conversions: Browns 10-16, Titans 2-10.
— Over is 8-2-1 in Titans’ last 11 games.
— Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.

Rams 38, Arizona 28
— Rams won last seven series games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last four.
— LA has outscored opponents 157-82 in second half of games.
— Rams converted 9-15 third down plays, had 30 first downs.
— Goff was 37-47 passing, for 351 yards.

— Arizona hit 59-yard TD pass on first series; rest of half, they ran 18 plays for 46 yards.
— Cardinals allowed 30.7 ppg in their last six games.
— Redbirds lost four of five games since their bye week.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 12 games.

Green Bay 30, Eagles 16
— Eagles lost last four games, by 10-5-6-14, scoring 17-17-17-16 points.
— QB Hurts came off bench, was 5-12/109 passing, throwing a TD pass.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Reagor ran a punt back 73 yards for Philly’s second TD.

— Green Bay won four of its last five games, scoring 31-41-30 last three weeks.
— Packers sacked Wentz/Hurts seven times.
— Green Bay is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— First time in nine games Packers outscored their opponent in 2nd half.

New England 45, LA Chargers 0
— Patriots ran punt back for a TD, blocked FG for a TD.
— New England won field position by 28 yards; that doesn’t count the two TD’s.
— New England won four of its last five games overall.
— Underdogs covered last eight Patriot games.

— Chargers lost their last five games, giving up 32.6 ppg.
— Last three games, LA converted only 14-47 third down plays.
— Chargers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.
— In their last nine games, Chargers gave up 27+ points every week.

Kansas City 22, Broncos 16
— Denver led this game 10-9 at halftime.
— Broncos lost five of last six games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
— Denver held Chiefs to four FG’s in four trips to red zone.
— Broncos ran ball for 179 yards, trying to keep their defense off field.

— KC didn’t score a TD until there was 1:06 left in third quarter.
— Tyreek Hill made a great catch for a TD in first half, but refs called it incomplete, and no one, not even Hill, realized he caught the ball, so call wasn’t challenged. Very strange play.
— Kansas City won its last 11 games vs Denver.
— Chiefs won their last six games overall, last four by total of 15 points.

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BUFFALO (8 - 3) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 6) - 12/7/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-12 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
BUFFALO is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (4 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 0) - 12/7/2020, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 71-102 ATS (-41.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 113-81 ATS (+23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 8) at BALTIMORE (6 - 5) - 12/8/2020, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday’s games
Bills (8-3) vs San Francisco (5-6) (@ Glendale, AZ)
— Buffalo won four of its last five games, covered last three.
— Bills won three of five road games, losing at Tennessee/Arizona.
— Bills just just here in Glendale; Buffalo lost on Hail Mary on last play in Week 10.
— Bills scored 24+ points in seven of their eight wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 1-3 ATS this season as a road favorite.
— Nine of their 11 games went over the total.

— 49ers are playing “home” games in Arizona, this week/next.
— 49ers beat the Rams LW, snapping a 3-game skid.
— Mullens gets another start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
— 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 31.7 ppg in their losses.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— 49ers are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as an underdog away from home.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Four of last five series games were decided by 29+ points.

Washington (4-7) @ Pittsburgh (11-0)
— Washington won three of last five games, covered four of last six.
— Washington outscored last four opponents 78-19 in second half.
— Washington is 1-5 outside the division, with four losses by 14+ points.
— Washington is 1-4 SU on road, losing by 15-14-1-3 points.
— Washington is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games as a road underdog.
— Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Washington games.

— Short week for Steelers, who last played on Wednesday.
— Steelers won first 11 games (8-3 ATS), scoring 28.8 ppg.
— Pittsburgh’s home wins this year are by 5-7-9-31-26-5 points
— Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
— Steelers are +12 in turnovers this season, +7 in last four games.
— Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.

— Steelers won last six series games, last three by 15+ points each.
— Washington lost last four visits here; their last win here was in 1991.

Tuesday’s game
Cowboys (3-8) @ Baltimore (6-5)
— Cowboys lost five of their last six games.
— Last ten games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 2-9 ATS this year; their three wins by total of 7 points.
— Four of last six Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys are 0-2 on natural grass, losing by combined score of 48-12.
— Dallas is 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog, 1-3 TY.

— McSorley gets first NFL start if Lamar Jackson can’t play.
— Baltimore lost four of last five games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 26.8 ppg in losses.
— Ravens lost three of five road games SU this year.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Raven games.
— Ravens are 10-18 ATS in last 28 games as a home favorite.

— Home side won four of last five series games.
— Baltimore won four of last five series games.
— Cowboys lost last three visits here, by average of 29-13.



Washington @ Pittsburgh
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington

Buffalo @ San Francisco
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Buffalo

Dallas @ Baltimore
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

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MONDAY, DECEMBER 7

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at PIT 05:00 PM
WAS +6.0
O 43.5

BUF at SF 08:15 PM
SF -2.0
U 47.0

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DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals..........14-12-1......53.84%.....+4.00

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NFL Odds Week 14: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Baker Mayfield and the Browns gave away almost all of a 38-7 lead against the Titans in Week 13, but held on for a 41-35 win. In Week 14, Cleveland opened as a 1-point home underdog to Baltimore.

NFL Week 13 won't wrap up until Tuesday night, but NFL Week 14 odds can't be stopped nor contained, with several games already seeing action. The bookend matchups are among the most noteworthy, with the New England Patriots meeting the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, and the Cleveland Browns hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 14 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 14 Odds

Patriots at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Los Angeles outgunned Arizona in Week 13, 38-28, while New England boatraced the L.A. Chargers 45-0 on the road. That made things a little more challenging for SuperBook oddsmakers.

"The Patriots destroyed the Chargers today, and we opened the Patriots a 5-point underdog vs. the Rams, which was a little lower than our look-ahead line," Murray said. "We took money on the Rams right away and bumped the line up to Rams -6. It should be a pretty-good-handle Thursday game. We will take money both ways."

There was no movement Sunday night on the total of 45.

Packers at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +8.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Green Bay had little trouble in a 30-16 home victory over Philadelphia, and Detroit scored two touchdowns inside the final three minutes to upend host Chicago 34-30. The SuperBook opened the Packers -8.5 and briefly went to -8 before returning to the opening number. The total was stable Sunday night at 54.5.

Titans at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +7.5, Over/Under 53

Why the line moved
Tennessee laid a huge first-half egg Sunday against Cleveland, falling behind 38-7 at halftime, then nearly made it all up in a 41-35 Week 13 loss. Jacksonville was a 10-point underdog at Minnesota and forced overtime, but lost 27-24.

The Titans opened -7.5 at The SuperBook and dipped to -7 for a bit Sunday night, before returning to -7.5. The total was stable at 53.

Cowboys at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati took a 7-0 first-quarter lead at Miami, but that was it in a 19-7 loss. Dallas is playing the Week 13 waiting game, traveling to Baltimore for a Tuesday night contest. The SuperBook went ahead and posted Cowboys-Bengals, though, opening Dallas -3.5, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Cardinals at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York got one of the larger upsets of the season in Week 13, traveling to Seattle, fielding backup QB Colt McCoy and shocking the Seahawks 17-12. Arizona couldn't keep up with the L.A. Rams in a track-meet fourth quarter, losing 38-28. The Cardinals opened -2.5 at The SuperBook, with no line movement Sunday night.

Texans at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +3, Over/Under 46

Why the line moved
Both these squads fell short in Week 13, with Houston falling 26-20 to visiting Indianapolis and Chicago giving up two late touchdowns in a 34-30 home loss to Detroit. The SuperBook opened Houston -3 and moved to -2.5 within just a few minutes Sunday night. The total held at 46 Sunday night.

Broncos at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver made a respectable showing in the Week 13 Sunday nighter at Kansas City, losing 22-16. Meanwhile, Carolina is rested and ready, coming off a bye week that might allow for the return of star running back Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers opened -3.5 at The SuperBook, and the game came off the board once the Broncos kicked off against the Chiefs. The line will go back up Monday morning.

Vikings at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -6.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are coming off a bye week, while Minnesota is coming off back-to-back tight wins to stay in the NFC playoff picture. On Sunday, the Vikings escaped with a 27-24 overtime win laying 10.5 points against visiting Jacksonville.

"We opened the Bucs -6.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Vikings will be one of our bigger needs of the week, with the Bucs coming off a bye week and the Vikes looking so mediocre today."

The total was also stable Sunday night at 52.

Chiefs at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins +7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami didn't look particularly great as 10-point home chalk against Cincinnati, but notched a 19-7 victory. And Kansas City got much more than it expected as a 13-point home fave against Denver on Sunday night, holding on for a 22-16 victory.

"We opened Chiefs -7.5, and the game is off the board now with the Chiefs playing on Sunday Night Football," Murray said during the Denver-KC game. "The Dolphins will be one of our biggest needs of the week next Sunday. The Chiefs will be in every moneyline parlay and teaser."

Colts at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas nearly gave the New York Jets their first victory of the season, but the Raiders pulled out a 31-28 road win on a 46-yard Derek Carr-to-Henry Ruggs TD pass in the waning seconds Sunday. Meanwhile, Indianapolis held off Houston 26-20.

"We opened Raiders +3 and took some money on the 'dog, and moved them to +3 (-120)," Murray said. "Las Vegas was very, very fortunate to escape with a win today and will face a formidable Colts defense next week. I still think this will be one of the rare instances in which we are rooting for the favorite. This town loves betting on the Raiders."

Jets at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -14, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
New York's season of utter failure continued in Week 13, when the Jets (0-12 SU) allowed a 46-yard touchdown pass with five seconds remaining in a 31-28 home loss to Las Vegas. Seattle got stung Sunday, too, in a shocking 17-12 home loss as 11-point chalk against the New York Giants.

Still, SuperBook oddsmakers didn't hesitate to hang the Seahawks -14 against the Jets. Within about an hour, the line dropped to -13, then ticked up to -13.5 a few minutes later Sunday night. The total held firm at 47 Sunday night.

Falcons at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers +2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Los Angeles suffered a 45-0 home drubbing at the hands of New England in Week 13, while Atlanta was dealt a 21-16 home loss by New Orleans. The SuperBook opened the Falcons -2.5, with a total of 49.5, and neither number moved Sunday night.

Saints at Eagles Odds
Opening line
Eagles +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans continues weathering the loss of Drew Brees, with backup Taysom Hill helping the Saints go 3-0 SU and ATS while stretching the team's overall streak to 5-0 SU and ATS. Now, there's a chance Brees could return this week from multiple cracked ribs.

The SuperBook opened the Saints -6.5 against the Eagles, who in Week 13 fell at Green Bay 30-16 for their fourth consecutive loss (1-3 ATS). There was no line movement Sunday night.

Washington at 49ers Odds
Opening line
49ers -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Both these teams have Week 13 work to do, with San Francisco hosting Buffalo in the regularly scheduled Monday night game, and Washington traveling to Pittsburgh for a 5 p.m. ET Monday kickoff. The 49ers opened -4 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Steelers at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills +1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh and Buffalo also have unfinished Week 13 business. The undefeated Steelers host Washington in a 5 p.m. ET Monday kick, and the Bills meet the 49ers in a Monday night game moved to the Arizona Cardinals' home stadium due to COVID restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif.

"The Steelers are -1.5 for now, but both teams play Monday, so we may see an adjustment before this game," Murray said. "It sets up to be a big public play on the Steelers, and the house will likely need the Bills pretty big in this game."

Ravens at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns +1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cleveland was beating the daylights out of Tennessee at halftime Sunday, leading 38-7, but then had to hang on for a 41-35 victory. Meanwhile, Baltimore's Week 13 game isn't until Tuesday, when it hosts Dallas in a contest rescheduled due to the Ravens' COVID issues the past two weeks.

"We opened Ravens -1 and are still there. The Ravens play Tuesday night vs. Dallas, and if they lay another egg in that game, we may see Cleveland move to the favorite," Murray said. "The Browns are very quietly 9-3, and the public will be quick to abandon the Ravens if their offense keeps struggling."

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NFL Betting Tips for Week 14: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Atlanta is 4-3 SU and ATS since firing head coach Dan Quinn in mid-October, due in larger part to the Falcons becoming much tougher on the defensive side of the ball.

What kind of Christmas shopper are you: Someone who waits until the last minute, picking through the discount DVD bin at your local late-night pharmacy on December 24? Or do you like to plan out your holiday gift giving, buying up the best deals back in September?

When it comes to the best NFL betting strategy, both last-minute and early-bird shoppers can benefit. The Week 14 odds have been released and these are our top NFL betting tips for the point spreads and totals to bet now, and the best lines to bet later.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now

As of Sunday evening, Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn is still employed. But after the Bolts were absolutely bombed by New England at home – losing 45-0 like some FCS cupcake visiting Alabama in September – the heat from his office chair can be seen from space.

Los Angeles has won just one game since November, with that lone victory coming against the New York Jets. And what’s worse is that the Chargers are 0-6 against the spread in that span. The Falcons, their Week 14 opponents, have won three of their last five with those two losses coming to rival New Orleans.

Atlanta knows all about the benefits of canning a crap coach and has been a different team since firing Dan Quinn back in mid-October. Since then, the Falcons are 4-3 SU and ATS and have been much tougher on the defensive side of the ball. During their 0-5 skid to start 2020, Atlanta allowed 32.2 points per game. That’s been trimmed to just over 20 points per outing in the last seven contests.

Regardless of Lynn's job security, this spread is going to go up quickly. Catch the Falcons under a field goal on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5): Bet Later

All aboard the Jalen Hurts hype train! The Eagles rookie passer and former Alabama/Oklahoma QB turned heads with his brief fourth-quarter contributions in Week 13’s loss to Green Bay. Hurts replaced the struggling Carson Wentz and brought Philadelphia within a touchdown before a 77-yard TD run from the Packers denied the backdoor cover.

The Saints added another chain to their now nine-game winning streak, upending the Falcons 21-16. And while NOLA covered for the sixth time during this run, it wasn’t an overly impressive win. New Orleans plays its third straight road game in Philadelphia, where the early forecast is calling for a wet and windy weekend in the City of Brotherly Love (keep an eye, since we’re still a week out). New Orleans has played outdoors just three times this season.

This spread opened Saints -6.5 and the vig is starting to climb on the visitor, indicating a move to a touchdown. If you think Hurts gets another go and are fading the Saints' road-heavy sked, wait it out and grab all the points you can with the Eagles.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Over 55): Bet Now

Detroit just gave up 30 points to the Chicago Bears—a team that scored a collective 78 points in the month of November. The Lions have doled out points like 2020 hand sanitizer, giving up an average of 29.8 points per outing on the year, and now have the fun task of checking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who hung 42 points on Detroit back in Week 2.

Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in all but three games this season and has thrived when hitting the fast indoor tracks, averaging 36.5 points per game under a dome. The Cheeseheads have looked like the Swiss variety when away from Lambeau, allowing 28.8 points against as a visitor – fourth-most in the NFL – which has led to a 4-2 Over/Under mark on the road.

That Week 2 42-21 final score played Over the 51-point total and snapped a three-game Under run in this NFC North rivalry. However, the Packers and Lions have topped the total in seven of their last 10 matchups and this number is quickly climbing from 54.5 to 55 points. Jump on that Over now.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 52.5): Bet Later

This total opened 52.5 and there's a slight lean toward the Over with the early movement on the juice. That’s not surprising given how this Vikings defense is playing. However, on the other side of the ball is one of the tightest stop units in the land and an offense that's cooled off with the climate.

Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and hoping that hiatus can jump-start Tom Brady and the scoring attack. The Buccaneers averaged just over 24 points per game in November after posting 31.7 points an outing in the first two months of the schedule. Luckily, those offensive issues have been mopped up by a stop unit ranked third in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.

Minnesota managed to get past Jacksonville but needed an extra frame to pick up its fifth win in the past six games. The Vikes' production takes a significant dip when playing on the road, scoring nearly a touchdown less in the role of visitor (23.0 points per road game). Quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked great recently but has played some bullshit defenses over the past month. Cousins is staring down the barrel of one of the most disruptive stop units in the league in Week 14, with Tampa boasting 34 sacks and 20 takeaways.

If you like the Under, see if that shift in vig toward the Over manifests itself into an extra half-point or more before placing your bet.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack
Interesting pointspreads for Week 14 games:
— New England @ LA Rams (-6)
— Green Bay (-7.5) @ Detroit
— Tennessee (-7.5) @ Jacksonville
— Dallas (-3.5) @ Cincinnati
— Arizona (-2.5) @ NJ Giants
— Houston (-2.5) @ Chicago

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 283,326
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I’m proud of how you stepped up for your teammates, particularly in what was an impossible situation in difficult circumstances. Decades from now, I hope you’ll look back with pride on your experience — you’ll have quite a story to tell your grandchildren!”
Former Colts RB Tom Matte, in a letter to Denver WR Kendall Hinton; both guys had to be emergency QB’s for their teams, 55 years apart

Tuesday’s quiz
Which two NFL teams used to call St Louis home?

Monday’s quiz
Mike Holmgren was the Seahawks’ coach the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

Sunday’s quiz
Troy Aikman finished his college career at UCLA; he started it at Oklahoma.

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Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……

12) Washington 23, Pittsburgh 17
— Washington won four of last six games, covered five of last seven.
— Washington outscored last five opponents 95-22in second half.
— Washington is 18-12-1 ATS in last 31 games as a road underdog.
— Washington/Giants are 5-7, tied atop NFC East.

— Steelers led this game 14-0 early, 14-3 at halftime.
— Pittsburgh is now 78-2-1 at Heinz Field, when they led by 14+ points.
— Roethlisberger threw for 305 yards; Steelers ran ball for only 21 yards.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.

11) Mack Brown is the football coach at North Carolina, a very good coach, but apparently he isn’t the smartest person in his family. Brown’s daughter Katherine Ryan won $22,801 on Jeopardy! Friday night and returned this week to defend her title.

Jeopardy! trivia: Apparently they give you some areas of knowledge that might appear on the show you’re going to be on, so you can study up in advance. Didn’t know that.

10) New Jersey Jets fired defensive coordinator Gregg Williams Monday morning, after the Jets got burned on a 46-yard TD pass with 0:05 left in a 31-28 loss to the Raiders. Receiver who caught the game-winning pass was single-covered, which is very unusual in that situation.

9) Kendall Hinton is a practice squad WR for the Broncos, but he had to play QB last week, when the NFL ruled all of Denver’s QB’s ineligible because of COVID protocols. Things did not go well for Hinton or the Broncos, but Hinton got a nice note a few days ago.

Tom Matte was a good running back for the Baltimore Colts from 1961-75, but in 1965, he had to play three games at QB for the Colts, after Johnny Unitas and Gary Cuozzo were both injured. Matte wrote Kendall Hinton a 2-page letter last week, which is pretty cool.

Back in 1965, Matte wore a writstband with the team’s plays on it; he is thought to be the first player to do that. His coach with the Colts was Don Shula, whose son Mike is now QB coach in Denver.

8) Iowa State is playing in the Big X title game; the Cyclones haven’t won a league title in football since 1912. 19-freakin’-12!!! How does some big $$$ school not hire Matt Campbell?

7) An NFL oddity:
— 2014 Carolina Panthers went 7-8-1, but made the playoffs- they beat Arizona 26-16, then lost 31-17 to the Seahawks.
— The next season, the 2015 Panthers went 15-1 and won NFC title; before losing Super Bowl to Denver. Before this year’s Steelers, they were the last NFL team to start a season 11-0.

6) Random obscure knowledge: I’m watching a college football game late Saturday night, and it turns out one of the players raises alpacas in his hometown. Alpacas look like llamas, but they are smaller than llamas; it turns out that alpacas have a three-chambered stomach, to enhance digestion. Just thought you’d like to know.

5) Montana Grizzlies are usually one of the best basketball teams in the Big Sky, but their season got off to a rocky start when they went to Southern Utah for two games and lost both of them, both by a single point (64-63/75-74).

Several conferences have scheduled like that this season, to reduce travel; a team goes to half the schools for 2-game series, and the other half of the teams come to their gym for 2-game series.

4) When 24-point underdog Rice won 20-0 at Marshall Saturday, it was the 3rd-biggest upset this season, and also the first time since 1982 that Marshall was shut out at home.

3) San Jose State’s football team is 5-0 this season, first time Spartans are 5-0 since 1939.

2) Unusual career change: Cubs TV guy Len Kasper, who worked for the Cubs for 16 years, quit his post to become the new radio voice of the crosstown White Sox.

Seems like an odd move, but apparently Kasper preferred to be a radio voice. Very curious who the Cubs name to take his place; I watch lot of Cubs games in the summer.

1) RIP to Dick Allen, the slugger for Phillies/White Sox who hit 351 home runs and was AL MVP in 1972. He made seven All-Star Games, but passed away this week at age 78.

Dick Allen played for the A’s in 1977, his last year in the majors; a 1960 graduate of Wampum HS in Pennsylvania, Allen wore uniform #60 that year, with WAMPUM where his name was supposed to be. Allen was an excellent hitter and a bit of a character. RIP sir.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 8

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DAL at BAL 08:05 PM

DAL +9.5

O 45.5