The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

GAME SCORE PICK UNITS STATUS

L.A. Chargers New Orleans -- 08:15 PM LAC +7.0 Over 49.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........63-68-1.......48.09%.....-63.00

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack
Some interesting spreads for Week 6 college games:
— Auburn (-3.5) @ South Carolina
— Virginia (-3) @ Wake Forest
— Kentucky @ Tennessee (-6)
— Ole Miss (-3) @ Arkansas
— LSU @ Florida (-13)
— Georgia @ Alabama (-6)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 214,985
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I love Matt (Ryan). I hope he’s going to be part of our plans going forward but that won’t be a decision I make,”
Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank, talking about his team’s quarterback after he fired the team’s coach Sunday night

Tuesday’s quiz
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin once coached an NFL team for 20 games; which team?

Monday’s quiz
Dolphins’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played his college football at Harvard.

Sunday’s quiz
Since 1970, four former USC football coaches have also been NFL head coaches:
John McKay, John Robinson, Pete Carroll, Lane Kiffin


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Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) New Orleans 30, Chargers 27 OT
— Chargers lost their last four games, two of them in OT.
— Under Lynn, LA’s record in games decided by 8 or fewer points is 3-13.
— Chargers missed a PAT, hit the upright on a 50-yard FG at gun in regulation.
— Chargers are 9-7-2 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.

— Saints scored 30+ points in four of their five games.
— Sanders caught 12 footballs for 122 yards.
— All five New Orleans games went over the total.
— Saints allowed 34-37 points in their losses; 23-29-27 in their wins.
— New Orleans is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite.

12) Tonight’s Buffalo-Tennessee game won’t be the first NFL regular season game played on a Tuesday; 10 years ago, Vikings beat Philly 24-14 on a game postponed because of a blizzard in Philadelphia. It was Michael Vick’s rookie year; Joe Webb was the Vikings’ QB.

11) Thru five weeks, NFC East doesn’t have a team at .500 or better; this is only third time this ever happened- the 2013 NFC East (Eagles wound up winning it at 10-6) and 1968 Century Division (Browns wound up 10-4, after starting out 2-3).

10) One of the coolest things about baseball is that heroes come in all shapes and sizes; Mike Brosseau got Tampa Bay into the ALCS when he homered in the 8th inning of Game 5 in the ALDS.

Brosseau played college ball at Oakland in Michigsn- he was undrafted out of college, didn’t get to AA until 2018, but he got to AAA and the majors last year, and hit .302 in 86 AB’s this year. Now he’s hit one of the, if not THE biggest home run in Rays’ history.

9) Random fact: 8 of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL transferred while they were in college, and that doesn’t count the guys who went to junior college.

8) Dak Prescott’s shattered ankle means that Andy Dalton is now the Dallas QB; his backup is rookie Ben DiNucci, a 7th round draft pick from I-AA James Madison.

Guy on social media wrote a factual tweet about how Prescott was playing this year on a 1-year tender, rather than signing a lucrative multi-year deal, and the shattered ankle makes giving him a multi-year deal very risky. The guy got roasted by others for reporting facts- welcome to 2020.

7) Seahawks won 27-26 in dramatic fashion Sunday night, but they went 0-7 on third down conversions. Not often a team scores 27 points without converting one third down play- they did convert both their 4th down tries, including the game-winning TD with 0:15 left.

6) The Wall Street Journal reports that Red Sox owner John Henry “is in talks to join with an investment vehicle for an $8 billion deal that would take his famed sports holdings public, according to people familiar with the matter.”

Fenway Sports Group’s holdings include:
— Boston Red Sox
— Fenway Park
— New England Sports Network
— Liverpool soccer team
— Salem Red Sox
— Roush Fenway Racing
— Fenway Sports Management

5) Chicago White Sox fired manager Rick Renteria Monday; White Sox went 35-25 this year, lost in the Wild Card round in three games to Oakland. Overall, Renteria went 236-309 as skipper of the Pale Hose, after going 73-89 in his one year managing the Cubs- they fired him when Joe Maddon became available.

White Sox were 32-16 at one point this season, but went 4-11 in their last 15 games, and that was enough to get Renteria shown the door.

4) Clemson Tigers have now won 36 consecutive regular season football games.

3) Lakers’ championship this year is their 17th ever; five of those 17 titles came when the team was in Minneapolis (Minnesota is the Land of 10,000 Lakes).
— Rajon Rondo joins Clyde Lovelettte as only players ever to win a title as both a Laker and a Celtic.
— Lebron James took some heat for passing to Danny Green for an open 3-pointer at the end of Game 5; to me, that is part of what makes James so great, he trusted his teammate to make a shot (Green is a career 40% shooter on the arc). Green missed, but that’s not the point. Great teams have players who trust each other, and addition to great talent, that is why they win.

2) Rays 4, Astros 2 (Tampa Bay leads 2-0)
— Bregman flied to center with bases loaded to end the game.
— Margot hit a 3-run homer in the first inning, after an Altuve throwing error.
— Zunino hit a 454-foot homer for the Rays- he has three homers this postseason, after he hit .147 during the regular season.
— In MLB history, teams that went up 2-0 in best-of-7 series have won the series 72 of 85 times (84.7%).

1) Braves 5, Dodgers 1 (Atlanta leads 1-0):
— Braves scored four times in ninth inning; they’re 6-0 in the playoffs.
— Riley, Albies homered in the decisive 9th inning.
— Teams were a combined 1-14 with runners in scoring position.
— Roughly 11,000 fans were allowed to come in and watch this game, in Arlington TX.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 6 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Sunday's home victory over the Giants. Prescott's injury led The SuperBook to open Dallas +3 at home against Arizona.

NFL Week 5 is almost wrapped up, NFL Week 6 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, most notably the atypically gruesome injury that shelved Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for the season.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Week 6 Injuries


Dallas Cowboys: Prescott suffered a broken and dislocated right ankle during Sunday’s home win over the Giants. He had surgery Sunday night and won’t return this season. That led The SuperBook at Westgate to open the Cowboys as 3-point home underdogs to Arizona in the Monday night game, though Arizona quickly dipped to -2.5. With Prescott in the lineup, SuperBook executive director John Murray said Dallas would’ve been a short favorite.

Dallas also lost starting defensive tackle Trysten Hill to a torn ACL.

Kansas City Chiefs: Wideout Sammy Watkins (hamstring) won’t play this week at Buffalo, and might be out beyond that. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3 and the total at 55, and neither budged Monday.

Cleveland Browns: QB Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs, following an injury suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. The X-rays came back negative, and Mayfield vowed to play this week at Pittsburgh. The Browns opened +4.5 at The SuperBook, and the first move Monday was to Browns +3.5. The total was steady at 51.

Week 6 Weather

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: The early-week forecast called for a 40 percent chance of rain, but the wind might be the more noteworthy issue, at 17 mph from the east/northeast. The SuperBook opened the total at 50 and was down to 48.5 Monday.


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Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 6 Betting Angles

It was interesting to see mostly more of the same regarding last week's scenarios, as teams before their SNF or MNF showcase went 2-2 ATS (3-1 SU).

But more importantly, those readers that had the balls to stick with the trend of fading teams pre-TNF in the outright market were rewarded handsomely if they stuck with fading the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City's game may have already been moved from Thursday Night Football, but they technically still classified as being in that scheduling spot where teams have not performed well this year.

That Raiders win was by far the best result, and it's something that is more likely to continue in Week 6 with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles slated to open Week 7 with a TNF game.
Both of those NFC East teams are at home this week, as it's their division of atrocity that gets the light shone on it a bit today.

Who's Hot

NFC West teams are a combined 8-2 ATS on the road; Only one division game played so 7-2 ATS on the road vs rest of the league

Quite the run for these NFC West teams away from home, and that's with the defending NFC Champions (San Francisco) sitting with a losing record SU overall right now. But the 49ers are 2-0 ATS away from home this year, as are the Seahawks.

Los Angeles and Arizona both sit at 2-1 ATS on the road, but that Rams loss came up in Buffalo in a contest that could have easily worked out in LA's favor.

Who do you follow?

Cardinals
Rams
49ers
Seahawks

Coming into the year you had to wonder if road teams would achieve even marginally more success with the lack of opposing crowds to deal with, and so far it has been this NFC West division to make the most of the opportunity.

But given that this division has represented the last two NFC Champions and has had a QB on the 3rd team that has been in the MVP conversation in both of those years, continuity was always going to be valuable this year and it's shown in this division.

Week 6 has the Rams in San Francisco on SNF to deal with a reeling 49ers team that's in desperate need of a win, while Arizona's out in Dallas for MNF the following evening. Both are sitting as small road favorites right now which brings a whole other can of worms to the party with popular road chalk in prime time, but it's hard to stand in the way of any of these teams when they are away from home.

The recent successes of Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco have taught those organizations that winning on the road is a must in this league, and this is a trend I would expect to continue to perform rather well long term this season.

Who's Not

NFC East teams are a combined 2-8 ATS at home this year; 2-6 ATS outside of division games

As if some bettors needed another reason to want to fade the Dallas Cowboys yet again, but here we've got Dallas hosting Week 6's MNF game with the NFC West Arizona Cardinals coming into town.

On top of the awful defense the Cowboys have, and the devastating injury situation with quarterback Dak Prescott, this run of futility for NFC East teams at home only adds more fuel to the fire of a market that's likely going to be excited about fading this Dallas Cowboys team already.

How interesting that line gets throughout the week is something to keep an eye on.

Who do you fade?

Cowboys
Giants
Eagles
Football Team

But the Cowboys aren't the only team from this division at home in Week 6, as the Eagels host Baltimore, and the Giants are hosting Washington.

In fact, it's the combination of Dallas/NYG/Philadelphia that accounts for all eight of those ATS losses at home for this division (0-8 ATS combined), and it's Dallas and Philly – the two teams expected to ultimately fight for this division – who are the ones catching points this week.

Maybe the market has finally caught up to these teams, although who knows where the masses sit on the Cowboys now that Prescott is out.

Dallas is always going to be a public team, but as one that's done nothing but burn money in all roles this year, you've got to imagine a good chunk of that support waivers with those results and a backup QB in Andy Dalton now at the helm.

The Eagles are in tough against Baltimore, and the Washington/Giants game is one New York should be able to find a way to get into the win column for the first time this year.

These poor ATS numbers are more then likely to get better for all these NFC East teams at home, but it would still need to be a good spot to back them as well. All four of these teams are still below-average football teams overall, and you don't really want to be going to war with them week after week.


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Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Sunday, Oct. 18

CHICAGO at CAROLINA

Bears have won and covered first two on road in 2020 after dropping last six vs. spread away from Soldier Field in 2019.
Rhule has won and covered last three in 2020.
Chicago on 20-8 “under” run since late 2018 (“over” first 2 away, however), though Panthers on 7-3-1 “over” run since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and “under,” based on team and extended “totals” trends.

DETROIT at JACKSONVILLE

Lions 1-12 SU last 13, Patricia no covers last four as chalk.
Jags 3-2 as home dog since LY Lions “over” 13-7 last 20.

Tech Edge: Jags, especially if dog, and slight to “over” based on team and “totals” trends.

ATLANTA at MINNESOTA

Falcs still winless 0-5 SU in 2020, but did have a five-game road spread cover streak finally stopped by Pack last Monday.
Atlanta “over” 6-3 last nine away.
Vikes “over” 11-5 last 16 reg-season games after Seattle last Sunday night.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE

Titans were the odd 3-0 SU/0-3 vs. line first three games of 2020 into Bills on Tuesday.
Tennessee 12-4 SU in Tannehill’s first 16 games as a starter.
Texans closed the O’Brien era dropping last five SU and against line but did win and cover for Crennel last week against Jags.
Titans also “over” 12-4 in Tannehill’s first 16 starts. “Overs” 7-2 last nine in series.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS

WFT on 6-2 “over” run since late 2019.
G-Men have won and covered 4 of last 5 in series, though just 1-8 vs. line last 9 at MetLife.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Football Team, based on recent “totals” and team trends.

CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH

Home team has covered last four in series.
Browns “over” 7-2 since late 2019.
Prior to covers in last three, Cleveland was on 5-12-1 spread skid.

Tech Edge: Steelers and “over,” based on series and recent “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at PHILADELPHIA

Ravens on 16-1 SU run in reg season and 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven as visitor.
Eagles on 3-9 spread skid since mid 2019, also 1-6 vs. spread last seven at Linc.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS

Bengals have covered three of last four in 2020 after opener vs. Chargers.
Cincy 6-4 vs. line last nine as visitor (not counting vs. Rams in London LY).
Colts have won and covered three of last four in 2020 and “under” three of those, now “under” 5-3 since late 2019.
Bengals, however, on 6-3 “over” run.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND

Belichick 15-6 vs. line as reg season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020).
Broncos 7-3 last ten as dog for Fangio.

Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.

N.Y. JETS AT MIAMI

Dolphins have covered last four meetings.
Jets no covers first five in 2020, now on 2-8 spread skid since late 2019.
Miami now on 12-5 spread uptick since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.

GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY

Pack 4-0 SU and vs. line, GB also “over” 5-1 last six since late 2019.
If Pack a dog note 5-2 mark in role since LY (both losses last season vs 49ers).
Bucs “over” 3-2 in 2020, Arians teams now “over” 30-14 since mid 2016 with Cards & Bucs.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Packers, based on “totals” and team trends.

L.A. RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO

Rams 11-3 vs. number last 14 as visitor, have also won last three and covered last two at Levi’s.
Rams also “over” four of last five on road.
Niners no covers first three as host in 2020 and 12-6 “over” since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


Monday, Oct. 19

KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO

After loss to LV, KC now 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. line last 14 since mid 2019.
Bills 6-3-1 last ten as dog and also “over” first four in 2020 into Titans game on Tuesday.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on recent trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS

Cards have covered last four as dog for Kingsbury (1-0 TY), 11-4-1 in role since 2019.
Cowboys no covers first five in 2020, also on 17-7 “over” run since late in 2018.

Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[StarDust Bum]

103KANSAS CITY -104 BUFFALO
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

251CHICAGO -252 CAROLINA
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) over the last 2 seasons.

253DETROIT -254 JACKSONVILLE
DETROIT is 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

255ATLANTA -256 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 30-15 ATS (13.5 Units) in home games vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) since 1992.

257HOUSTON -258 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts. since 1992.

259WASHINGTON -260 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.

261CLEVELAND -262 PITTSBURGH
CLEVELAND is 13-35 ATS (-25.5 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

263BALTIMORE -264 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 35-17 ATS (16.3 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.

265CINCINNATI -266 INDIANAPOLIS
CINCINNATI is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) vs. good defenses (<17 PPG) since 1992.

267NY JETS -268 LA CHARGERS
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

269MIAMI -270 DENVER
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (22.1 Units) against the AFC West since 1992.

271GREEN BAY -272 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

273LA RAMS -274 SAN FRANCISCO
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.


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This report will update as Dunkel adds matchups....

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Tuesday, October 13

Buffalo @ Tennessee

Game 481-482
October 13, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
134.427
Tennessee
136.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+3 1/2); Over


Sunday, October 18

Atlanta @ Minnesota

Game 255-256
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
00.000
Minnesota
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta

Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
N/A

Houston @ Tennessee

Game 257-258
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
00.000
Tennessee
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston

Dunkel Pick:
Houston
N/A

Baltimore @ Philadelphia

Game 263-264
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
136.678
Philadelphia
134.224
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 8
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+8); Over

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

Game 265-266
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
122.997
Indianapolis
133.764
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 11
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 8
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-8); Under

Detroit @ Jacksonville

Game 253-254
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
125.466
Jacksonville
125.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
Even
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Under

Washington @ NY Giants

Game 259-260
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.701
NY Giants
121.943
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
Even
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Under

Chicago @ Carolina

Game 251-252
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.837
Carolina
128.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Over

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Game 261-262
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
129.582
Pittsburgh
138.713
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 9
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3 1/2); Over

Denver @ New England

Game 281-282
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
129.442
New England
134.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 5
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+9); Under

NY Jets @ Miami

Game 279-280
October 18, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
126.045
Miami
132.513
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 8
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+8); Over

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay

Game 271-272
October 18, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
140.081
Tampa Bay
132.764
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 1 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-1 1/2); Under

LA Rams @ San Francisco

Game 273-274
October 18, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
130.580
San Francisco
131.187
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
50
[B]Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+3 1/2); Over


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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Tuesday, October 13

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BUFFALO (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/13/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 18

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CHICAGO (4 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (1 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (0 - 4) at MINNESOTA (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (0 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2 - 1) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (1 - 2 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (0 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 3) at DENVER (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (4 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 201-146 ATS (+40.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 19

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ARIZONA (2 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/19/2020, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Tuesday, October 13

Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Sunday, October 18

Atlanta @ Minnesota
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Houston @ Tennessee
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Detroit @ Jacksonville
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Washington @ NY Giants
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 17 games when playing at home against Washington

Chicago @ Carolina
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

NY Jets @ LA Chargers
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets

Miami @ Denver
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games at home
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Green Bay

LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams

[StarDust Bum]

Bills vs. Titans Week 5 Odds, Preview
Michael Crosson

It is safe to say no NFL organization has been ravaged more by the coronavirus pandemic than the Tennessee Titans (3-0), after the news broke Sunday morning confirming the team’s 24th COVID-19 case among players and personnel since September 24th, again forcing the shutdown of Tennessee’s practice facilities.

The Titans already had last week’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers postponed to Week 7, so it is critical for strategic and rest related purposes that this game with the Buffalo Bills (4-0) kicks off for Mike Vrabel’s team on Tuesday night.

The future of this matchup between the Bills and Titans appeared foggy throughout the course of the week, but after no positive tests to report from either camp Monday morning, it looks like this game is going to make the cut in Week 5. So, a special Tuesday-Edition of NFL Best Bets is on the way.

Betting Resources

Week 5 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: Nisan Stadium
Location: Nashville, TN
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2020
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

The Buffalo Bills have been installed as favorites in all four of their games this season, which includes a pair of road tilts. (AP)

Line Movements

The Bills and Titans both come into Week 5 boasting perfect records, but the oddsmakers have elected to lean with the team that has been able to adequately practice and prepare all week – setting the line at Buffalo -3.5.

The potential of a shootout is beginning to fill the air in Nashville prior to the Titans’ Tuesday night showdown, as 6 out of the 7 games played by Buffalo and Tennessee so far this year have gone ‘over’ the total. The ‘over-under’ for this Bills-Titans matchup has been set at an accordingly lofty total of 53 points.

Spread: Buffalo -3.5
Money-Line: Buffalo -175, Tennessee +155
Total: 53

2020 Betting Stats

Buffalo

(Rank)

Overall: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-0-1 O/U
Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-0-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 30.8 (6)
Defense PPG: 25.0 (16)
Offense YPG: Overall 409 (3), Rush 93.5 (28), Pass 316 (2)
Defense YPG: Overall 381 (20), Rush 101 (8), Pass 280 (29)

Tennessee

Overall: 3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Home: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.7 (14)
Defense PPG: 24.7 (15)
Offense YPG: Overall 391 (12), Rush 129 (9), Pass 262 (14)
Defense YPG: Overall 422 (28), Rush 166 (31), Pass 256 (23)

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Titans lead 28-19

Oct. 6, 2019 - Buffalo 14 at Tennessee 7, Bills +3, Under 39
Oct. 7, 2018 - Buffalo 13 vs. Tennessee 12, Bills +6, Under 38.5
Oct. 11, 2015 - Buffalo 14 at Tennessee 13, Pick 'em, Under 42.5

The layouts and methodology of these two teams has changed dramatically since the last time the Bills and Titans met up, but for what it is worth, the most recent meeting between them was a matchup back in Week 5 of last season, when a Marcus Mariota led Tennessee team managed to muster up just seven total points against Buffalo – possibly the Titan’s most painful loss of the season, 14-7.

The biggest upgrade for Buffalo this season has come from the speedy progression of quarterback Josh Allen, who has completely broken out of his shell in 2020, completing over 70% of his passes with a 12-1 TD/INT ratio.

Give credit, where credit is due though. Some of Allen’s success can be attributed to the Bills’ re-vamped receiving core headed by the newly acquired Stefon Diggs in the offseason – who is leading Buffalo’s pass-catching tandem with 26 receptions (8 catches for 20 + yards), 403 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Tennessee has the same ground-and-pound identity it possessed last time out against Sean McDermott’s Bills, they are just simply more capable of slinging the ball around the yard when needed with Ryan Tannehill under center this go-around.

Just because the Titans can throw the ball now, does not mean that is the direction Coach Vrabel is looking to head with his offense. He wants to pound the ball with Derrick Henry (82 carries, 319 rush yards, 3 games). He wants his team focused on dominating time of possession and winning the turnover battle. Let’s see if Tennessee can be the first team to stop the Josh Allen-Train.

Handicapping the Total

The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Buffalo’s first four matchups to open the 2020 season, as Bills’ contests have contained an average of 55.75 total points during their young quarterback’s explosive start to the year.

Buffalo scored a mere 19.6 points per game last season, ranking 19th in the NFL. In 2020, the Bills are scoring an average of 30.8 points per game – jumping all the way up to 5th in the league in scoring.

The ‘over-under’ for this contest sits at 53, and I think that bar has been set just a little too low. I envision the Bills leading for the majority of this game, and Tennessee having to play catch-up. Buffalo’s secondary has already been questionable so far this year, and now with White being banged up, I think Tannehill will find success playing catch-up.

It is not personally my “best bet” of the night, but I think ‘over 53’ is a good bet for this game. We should see fireworks between the Bills and Texans on Tuesday night.

Handicapping the Side

The Titans have had 13 players test positive for COVID-19 since September 24th, causing the team’s practice facilities to shut down for the whole month of October. Tennessee got back to practice on Saturday morning, but just three days of on-field practice to prepare for any team is a tough task, let alone take down an undefeated Bills squad.

Tennessee is undeniably well rested, but I believe if any team had to choose between a week of practice versus a week of rest, they would take the week of practice every time.

If the Titans and Bills were both at full strength, and had a full week of practice, I may be hesitant to side with Buffalo at anything more than a field goal spread. But there are just too many unknowns surrounding Tennessee heading into this game. I trust that with the extra rest and preparation time, the Bills will outlast the Titans in this one.

The Bills beat the Titans by a touchdown last time they met up, and Coach McDermott’s team is here to prove that they are even better than they were last year.

I think Buffalo gets Tennessee by at least a touchdown in this one. Depending on your book, you might be able to bet on an alternate spread of Bills -6.5 at +125 odds or higher.

Key Injuries

Buffalo

G Brian Winters: Knee - Questionable
LB Del'Shawn Phillips: Quad - Questionable
CB Tre'Davious White: Back - Questionable
WR Andre Roberts: Ankle - Questionable
OT Cody Ford: Groin - Questionable
LB Matt Milano: Pec - Out
RB Zack Moss: Toe - Questionable
WR John Brown: Knee - Questionable

Tennessee

OT Taylor Lewan: Shoulder - Questionable
WR A.J. Brown: Knee - Questionable

Do not be fooled by the emptiness of the Titan’s injury report as players who test positive for COVID do not get placed on the list.

A.J. Brown is listed as questionable for Tuesday’s contest, but I expect him to play considering it was reported there was a chance he might suit up against the Steelers last week had the game not been postponed – and Tennessee will likely be without receivers Corey Davis and Adam Humphries due to coronavirus, so they need him bad on Tuesday night.

The other injury I have highlighted on this report is Bill’s corner, Tre’Davious White, listed as questionable with a back injury. The Titans receiving core has been annihilated by illness and injury so far this season, but like I mentioned earlier, Tennessee will probably get its top-wideout in Brown back for Tuesday’s tilt, which could be trouble for the Buffalo defense if its top-defensive back does not play.


******************************


This report will update...


NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Bills (4-0) @ Tennessee (3-0)
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— All four Buffalo games went over the total.
— Bills have converted 24-47 third down plays this year.
— Buffalo is 16-12-1 ATS in its last 29 road games.

— Tennessee won its first three games by combined total of six points.
— Titans are scoring 26.7 ppg; they’ve only had one turnover (+4) so far.
— Tennessee had COVID-related issues last week, didn’t play.
— Titans are 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games at home.
— AFC South teams are 3-8 ATS outside their division, 2-3 at home.

— Buffalo won last three series games, by total of nine points.
— Average total in last three series games, 24.3.
— Bills won 14-13/14-7 in their last two trips to Nashville.

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........63-68-1.......48.09%.....-63.00

[StarDust Bum]

SIZE=1]NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 18

Atlanta @ Minnesota
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Houston @ Tennessee
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Detroit @ Jacksonville
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Washington @ NY Giants
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 17 games when playing at home against Washington

Chicago @ Carolina
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

NY Jets @ LA Chargers
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets

Miami @ Denver
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games at home
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Green Bay

LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams


Monday, October 19

Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games

Arizona @ Dallas
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Arizona[/SIZE]

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Philadelphia
-- The Ravens are 15-0 ATS (10.90 ppg) since Jan 12, 2013 on the road coming off a win where they ran for at least 150 yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Minnesota
-- The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-8.91 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Philadelphia
-- The Ravens are 8-0 ATS (13.69 ppg) since Sep 22, 2019 coming off a win where Mark Andrews had a receiving touchdown.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Green Bay at Tampa Bay
-- The Packers are 10-0-1 OU (5.59 ppg) since Sep 28, 2014 on the road coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points less than expected based on the team total.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Denver at New England
-- The Patriots are 0-12 OU (-8.88 ppg) since Dec 04, 2016 coming off a road game that went under the total by at least six points.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Minnesota
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (8.68 ppg) since Dec 20, 2015 at home coming off a game where they committed at least two turnovers.


Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 6
Micah Roberts

NFC West Matchup receives attention

The biggest line move of NFL Week 6 action started 10 days ago when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted their early Week 6 numbers with the San Francisco 49ers as three-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams.

But following the Week 5 results, the SuperBook immediately posted the Rams as favorites (-3), which was mostly based on the 49ers eye-opening 43-17 home loss to the Miami Dolphins.

Bettors thought so low of the 49ers after quartreback Jimmy Garoppolo’s return to the lineup was a disaster that they thought the 7-point move wasn’t enough and bet the Rams to -3.5 on Monday morning.

On Wednesday, 49ers money showed up pushing the Rams down to -3 (-120).

On Thursday, they bet the 49ers again pushing the game to Rams -3 flat. But by Friday afternoon it was back up to Rams -3 -120.

At the South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews says it’s one of those sharp-public divide games. You can guess who the public likes. The Rams are 4-1 with a top-4 defense coming off a wire-to-wire 30-10 win and cover (-7) at Washington. Meanwhile, the 49ers have two straight bad losses as 8.5-point home favorites over the Eagles and Dolphins, and the public liked the 49ers in both and got burned. They’ve learned their lesson and refuse to be burned again by the 49ers.

But the way the San Francisco reporters are talking, this game is a defining moment for Garoppolo. He’s at a crossroads. This could be it and he might be playing for his job and home. He should be motivated, so if you like the 49ers, you have the desperation narrative going for you. And it’s a home game on a Sunday night although the 49ers have gone winless at Levi Stadium (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) which hasn’t had any fans attend this season yet.

The 49ers won both meetings last season, the Rams have covered three of the last four. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.

Week 6 - Largest Public Leans

Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers

SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says the Rams are one of their top public plays this week, along with the Ravens (-7.5 at Philadelphia), and Packers (PK at Tampa Bay). Those are the same top-3 public plays at the South Point.

Battle of the Bays

Up north in Reno, Atlantis sportsbook director Marc Nelson also has the Packers as their top public team. The first five weeks of the season the Buccaneers were a very popular public team as people transferred QB Tom Brady’s success with the Patriots into continuous trends for 2020.

But when the Chicago Bears (+3.5) beat the Bucs, 20-19, last Thursday night, most bettors had seen enough and flipped.

The Packers are 4-0 both SU and ATS, the type of run the public loves to press until it eventually loses. Plus, Green Bay and star QB Aaron Rodgers will be playing with rest after having a bye in Week 5.

However, BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott says their biggest liability so far through Friday afternoon was on the Buccaneers.

The SuperBook early number had the Bucs -3 (EVEN) and after the loss to the Bears, it was readjusted to Packers -1.5. But despite all the public play, there’s enough respected money on the Bucs to keep the SuperBook at pick ‘em.

Sharp Report

The Ravens are part of the most popular 3-team parlay this week, but unlike the other two, wise guys have not shown their hand on the other side with the Eagles yet and it was sitting Ravens -7.5 all week until the SuperBook moved to -8 on Thursday. On Friday, respected money came on the Ravens to push them to -9.5 and then back to -9. BetMGM is also at -9.

Kornegay said their sharp play is on the Cowboys (-1 vs Cardinals on Monday), Browns (+3.5 at Pittsburgh), and Texans (+3.5 at Tennessee) while Andrews says the South Point’s biggest sharp risk is the Bears (+1.5 at Carolina), Jaguars (+3 vs. Lions), and 49ers.

Nelson says the Atlantis’ top wise guy plays are the Browns, Bucs, and Broncos (+9 at New England).



The Patriots canceled practice on Friday after a player tested positive for COVID-19 and there were some concerns in Indianapolis for their home game against the Bengals (+7.5) but reopened their facility Friday after tests came back negative.

Both games are still on the board, but bettors do have concerns.

“No big players (yet), covid has everyone spooked,” said BetMGM’s Scott.

Nevada’s BetMGM high rollers (whales) usually arrive Friday or Saturday night.

AFC South Trap?

The game that surprises me the most that the public isn’t on, or at least as much as the other three, is the undefeated Titans (-3.5) at home against the Texans who finally won last week. Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda says the Titans are their biggest risk thus far, but they’ve got the type of players where one bet means the entire day's success. Kornegay has sharp money on the Texans.

[StarDust Bum]

Rams vs. 49ers Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

For the third straight week it's the NFC West that gets some part of the Sunday Night Football spotlight, and the San Francisco 49ers are hoping this home date turns out better than their last one.

That was a tough 25-20 home loss to the Eagles as heavy home chalk, and now two weeks later they are catching a field goal with the division rival Los Angeles Rams in town.

Who ends up playing (and even playing well) for the 49ers at QB is a huge question coming into the game and they are an easy target to be picked on right now because of it.

The 49ers upcoming schedule is about as rough as it gets, so this could spiral downwards in a heartbeat, but a counted out former champ can be tough to completely dispose of.

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

The San Francisco 49ers have struggled at Levi's Stadium this season, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. (AP)

Line Movements

The Rams know all about the post-Super Bowl struggles a team like the 49ers appear to be dealing with, as that was the Rams at the beginning of last year.

Starting out this year with a 4-1 SU record is great, but when all four of those wins have come against NFC East teams, you know there are going to be questions about resume quality.

Beating the defending conference champs regardless of what state they are currently in can't hurt the Rams resume going forward, but have they done enough to be a road favorite for this game?

Spread: Los Angeles -3.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -165 San Francisco +145
Total: 51.5

2020 Betting Stats

Los Angeles

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 14)
Defense PPG: 18.0 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 403.6 (Rank 4)
Defense YPG: 304.2 (Rank 4)

San Francisco

Overall: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Home: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 24.8 (Rank 18)
Defense PPG: 22.8 (Rank 11)
Offense YPG: 364.2 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 323 (Rank 5)

Handicapping the Total

Not knowing the starter under center for the Niners for certain makes it tough to be confident in either side of this total.

I would argue that the quarterback trio we've seen from San Francisco are all closer to being equal in overall skill set than they aren't, but that is more helpful in determining a side rather than a total. Chemistry between whomever is throwing the ball and the pass catchers are out there does change based on the name.

But this is still a Rams team that's run through weak NFC East competition so far, although they did hold Dallas to just 17 points. But their game against Buffalo saw the Bills finish with 35, and no matter who the 49ers go with at QB, it's still going to be better than most of what LA saw from the Giants or Washington.

This is also going to be one of the first halfway decent defenses the Rams will have seen this year, as again, their 2020 has consisted of beating up on the NFC East. It's been a division rivalry where the winner has put up at least 30 in five of the past six meetings, and I'm not sure the Rams can get there, but them getting to that number wouldn't be surprising either. Buffalo's shown to be one of the better defenses the Rams have played and they hung 30+ on the Bills.

Long way of saying that this total is probably right where it should be, and it's a series where I think flipping the total result in the rematch might be the better way to approach the two games these two play this year. Too much uncertainty here on both ends, and we'll have a much better profile of each squad when they meet again at the end of November.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 21, 2019 - San Francisco 34 vs. Los Angeles 31, 49ers -7, Over 45.5
Oct. 13, 2019 - San Francisco 20 vs. Los Angeles 7, 49ers +3, Under 50
Dec. 30, 2018 - Los Angeles 48 vs. San Francisco 32, Rams -10.5, Over 50
Oct. 21, 2018 - Los Angeles 39 at San Francisco 10, Rams -9, Under 52

Handicapping the Side

I might not be able to call a one-point win for the home side like last week, but with me lumping all of the 49ers QB options into a group I can expect what to get from, siding with the underdog and the points as I did a week ago is the play once again.

I do think the Rams are an above average team this year, but their 4-1 SU record doesn't hold nearly the same weight that some other four-win teams have at this point in the year. It's inflating their stock just ever so slightly, and when paired with a 49ers stock that's about as low as it can get right now, it just doesn't seem like this line is completely correct.

Had Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners just got beat at home last week against Miami – not utterly demolished from start to finish – I don't think the perception of this 49ers team is as low as it currently seems to be.

Last week's play isn't necessarily a good thing for the Niners long term this year, as they may be an average team that simply overachieved last year, but in a spot where it's got to feel like the direction of their season is on the line, I think we get the best versions of whomever is out there on the field in San Fran colors.

All three QB options for the 49ers have recent starting experience with this team so there are minimal worries there, and it was just a few weeks ago that the Rams were a two-point road dog vs Philly, while the 49ers were laying -8.5 at home against that same Eagles team a couple of weeks later. The drastically different results for those teams in those games isn't quite worth the adjustment here in my view, and the Rams record could get somewhat exposed here.

San Francisco is on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog – a role they've yet to be in this season – and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against a winning team. I believe the 49ers play up to the level of their competition in this spot, and facing a familiar foe who they swept last year might allow the Niners to play more on instinct and not have them try to overthink their way out of this funk.

I may not be sure about who ultimately takes the field for San Francisco in this game, but I'm also not sure about what this Rams team truly is in 2020. Until they show me a more definitive picture one way or the other, I just don't think I can agree with this picture being painted of the Rams being worthy road favorites in this spot. I don't even think they win the game.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo: Elbow - Out
S Jordan Fuller: Shoulder - Out
LB Micah Kiser: Groin - Questionable
OT Bobby Evans: Shoulder - Probable

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Probable
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Calf
S Marcell Harris: Ankle
CB Emmanuel Moseley: Concussion - Questionable
CB Dontae Johnson: Groin - Out
CB K'Waun Williams: Knee - Out
LB Kwon Alexander: Anle - Out

[Udog]

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at MIN 01:00 PM
ATL +3.5
O 53.0
+500 +500

CLE at PIT 01:00 PM
CLE +3.0
O 50.0
+500 +500

DET at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC +3.0
O 52.5
+500 +500

BAL at PHI 01:00 PM
BAL -10.5
U 46.5
+500 +500

CIN at IND 01:00 PM
CIN +7.5
U 46.0
+500 +500

CHI at CAR 01:00 PM
CHI +2.0
O 45.0
+500 +500

WAS at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG -1.0
U 42.5
+500 +500

HOU at TEN 01:00 PM
HOU +3.5
O 52.0
+500 +500

DEN at NE 01:00 PM
NE -7.5
U 43.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

LATE AFTERNOON AND UNDER THE LIGHTS:

NYJ at MIA 04:05 PM
NYJ +8.5
O 46.0

GB at TB 04:25 PM
GB -2.0
U 54.5

LAR at SF 08:20 PM
LAR -2.5
U 51.0

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/18/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........72-82-3.......46.75%.....-95.00