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  • NFL betting tips for Week 8: Bet Now or Bet Later
    Jason Logan

    The New England Patriots offense has scored a grand total of just 28 points overt their last three games and face another struggling offense in Buffalo in Week 8.

    It’s hard to believe that Sunday’s NFL Week 8 games will be played on November 1.

    This is the time of the year in which teams either go all in on the playoff push or start wondering if its worth it. And with the difficulties of the COVID-19-influenced season, I expect losing teams to start giving less of a crap even sooner into the schedule than normal.

    The best NFL betting strategy through it all is getting the better of the numbers. These are our NFL betting tips for the Week 8 odds to bet now and bet later.

    Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3): Bet Now

    The Browns follow their thrilling win over the rival Bengals on Sunday as 3-point home chalk hosting the Raiders in Week 8. Books opened Cleveland as a field-goal favorite Sunday night and already some shops are dealing the half-point hook on the host.

    The early money is buying into the Browns, who didn’t look that great in Sunday’s win against Cincinnati. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield had a bad start to the game but got right to the tune of five touchdown passes. That effort, which included a last-second touchdown, was enough to give the Browns their fifth win of the season.

    Las Vegas got shelled by Tampa Bay at home in Week 7, allowing Tom Brady and the Buccos to post 45 points – 21 of those in the fourth quarter. The Silver and Black are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing almost 33 points per game. That’s a touch worse than Cleveland's stop unit, which is serving up 31.6 points per outing.

    If you’re banking on the Browns, get them now at the clean field goal and avoid that nasty half-point hook in a game that could go either way, considering the defenses involved.

    Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3): Bet Later

    Most books opened the Falcons as heavily-juiced 3-point underdogs Sunday evening, with the points coming with a -120 price tag for Thursday Night Football. The lookahead line for this NFC South showdown was at Panthers -2.5 last week and that looks like where it’s headed considering the early movement for the vig.

    Carolina dropped its second straight game in a 27-24 loss at New Orleans, but covered as a touchdown road dog. The Panthers have been competitive in just about every game this season, with an average margin of -0.9 through seven games. This offense, which has overperformed, could have superstar RB Christian McCaffrey back for Thursday too.

    The Falcons “Falcon’d” themselves again versus Detroit in Week 7. Atlanta had the game in hand, but an ill-timed touchdown gave the ball back to the Lions in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter and… well, you know how these end for the Falcons.

    I’m a little surprised Carolina -3 is discounted, but wait it out and see if -2.5 shows up between now and when McCaffrey’s status is updated.

    New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Now

    Yeesh, when the Bills aren’t scoring 30 points a game, they’re one bad football team. The high-flying Buffalo offense has been grounded the past three games, with the team combining for just 51 points over that span – compared to 123 points totaled in the first four games of the schedule.

    The Patriots are also going through an offensive crisis, with a combined outpouring of 28 points in their last three contests – including scoring just six in Sunday’s home ass-waxing at the hands of the 49ers. It’s like New England’s offense hasn’t come out of quarantine since the team’s COVID-19 outbreak in early October.

    The total for this AFC East grudge match hit the board at 46 points Sunday night and was a favorite play of sharp bettors right away, dropping to 45 in about an hour. These divisional foes are a collective 0-5-1 Over/Under in their last six contests and have gone Under in six of their last nine meetings overall. If you’re on that Under bandwagon, take the U45 now before it sinks even lower.

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 49): Bet Later

    Given the firepower on both sides and the way the 2020 season is bursting with points like a freshly whacked pinata, seeing this total below 50 is a bit surprising. That may be the early narrative as well, with some books tacking on a half-point move to 49.5.

    Pittsburgh is unblemished and coming off a high-scoring thriller against Tennessee in which it scored 27 points but only three of those came in the second half. The Steelers offense stalled like a 1997 Toyota Tercel on a cold Pennsylvania morning and can thank the defense for keeping the Titans at bay down the stretch (and also thank Stephen Gostkowski for missing a game-tying 45-yarder in the final seconds).

    The Ravens offense is chewing up the gains on the ground – big surprise – but Lamar Jackson has struggled to throw the football – big surprise (no really) – with a passer rating of 99.2 (compared to 113.3 last year). Baltimore is averaging almost 30 points per game but has played plenty of pedestrian defenses along the way.

    These heated rivals have gone Over in their last two meetings, but those totals were almost laughable at 44 and 38 points (HA!). Before those results, the Steelers and Ravens played below the total in six of their previous eight encounters. If you like another Under, hold your horses and wait to see how high this Week 8 O/U goes.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • Betting Recap - Week 7
      Joe Williams

      Overall Notes



      The largest underdogs to win straight up

      Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
      49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6

      The largest favorites to cover

      Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
      Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16

      The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

      The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.

      The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.

      The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

      The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.

      If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.

      With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.

      The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.

      Total Recall

      The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.

      The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.

      In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.

      The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.

      In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.

      So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

      Looking Ahead to Week 8

      Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)


      The Falcons keep finding new ways to lose. They have blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys, Bears and Lions, and could easily be 4-3 instead of 1-6. That's how close the margin of error is in the NFL. They get a rematch with the Panthers on Thursday. They fell 23-16 at home against Carolina, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites in a game which Julio Jones missed due to injury. The under has cashed in three of the past four outings for Atlanta, including that first meeting with the Panthers. Carolina enters the Week 7 game at New Orleans with a 4-0 under streak before hitting the over against the Saints. Carolina covered, too, and they're now 4-1 ATS in their past five overall.

      New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

      The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites against the Jets in the 'Le'Veon Bell Bowl'. Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, we've had just five teams favored by 21 or more points. Last season the Miami Dolphins went to Dallas as 22-point underdogs, and the Cowboys covered the number, 31-6. However, since the start of the 2003 campaign, favorites of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. New York heads into this one just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road, 1-5 ATS in the past six as an underdog and 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 on a grass surface. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the pat four against losing teams, and they're 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 at home. They're also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a favorite, too. The game has since moved down to 20.5, so early bettors are actually...gulp...trusting the Jets?

      Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

      The unbeaten Steelers put their unblemished record on the line against the Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy. Not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they have covered four in a row, and five of six overall. Baltimore will be coming off a bye, so they'll be well rested and any injured players will have gotten over their early-season bumps and bruises. While the Ravens enter on a three-game winning streak, and they're 5-1 SU, Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS across the past four. The Ravens swept the Steelers last season, winning 26-23 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 5, while topping the Steelers 28-10 in the regular-season finale. Pittsburgh did win in Baltimore as recently as Nov. 4, 2018.

      Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

      The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • Tech Trends - Week 8
        Bruce Marshall

        Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

        Thursday, Oct. 29

        ATLANTA at CAROLINA


        Falcons romped in both meetings LY, but Panthers have covered 4 of last 5 after Saints result.
        Carolina 1-5-1 vs. line last seven in Charlotte (1-2 for Rhule).
        Falcs actually 6-1 vs. line last seven away.

        Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on team trends


        Sunday, Nov. 1

        INDIANAPOLIS at DETROIT


        Colts 1-2 vs. line away in 2020, 2-5 last seven vs. spread on road.
        Lions “over” 8-1 last nine at Ford Field.

        Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.

        MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY

        Pack has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series, including 43-34 win opening week.
        GB also 8-3 vs. line last 11 at Lambeau.
        Vikes “over” 4-2 in 2020, and 12-5 “over” last 17 reg.-season games.

        Tech Edge: Packers and “over,” based on team, series, and “totals” trends.

        NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO

        Belichick has only lost SU to Bills three times in last 33 meetings, one of those in last reg-season game, another with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
        Pats 5-2 vs. line last seven reg season meetings.
        As a dog, Belichick 14-4 since 2010.
        Bills only 4-8 vs. line last 12 on board.
        “Under” 7-4 last 11 meetings.

        Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

        TENNESSEE at CINCINNATI

        Tannehill 14-5 SU since becoming starting QB for Titans.
        Tenn no covers last three away in 2020 but had covered five straight on road prior.
        Tannehill also “over” 14-4-1 in his starts.
        Cincy has only lost once vs. spread in 2010 (5-1-1)

        Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

        LAS VEGAS at CLEVELAND

        Raiders “over” 5-0-1 in 2020.
        Browns “over” 5-2 in 2020 and 8-3 “over” last 11 since late 2019.

        Tech Edge: “Over,” based on”totals” trends.

        N.Y. JETS at KANSAS CITY

        Jets 0-7 and 1-6 vs. line in 2020 (first cover of season last week vs. Bills), and 3-9 vs. spread last 11 since late 2019.
        Chiefs 3-1 last four as DD chalk and 14-2 last 16 overall on line.
        Jets also “under” 10-3 last 13 since late 2019.

        Tech Edge: Chiefs and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

        L.A. RAMS at MIAMI

        Rams 7-1 vs. spread in early Eastern Time or London kickoffs under McVay since 2017.
        LA 11-5 vs. spread last 16 away from home since late 2018.
        Dolphins “over” 5-2 last seven as host, Rams “over” 4-2 last six away.

        Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

        PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE

        After Tenn win, Tomlin 11-2 as underdog since 2018.
        Note Ravens just 6-6 vs. spread last 12 as host.
        Ravens on 8-4 “under” run since late 2019, Steel “under” 8-1 last nine away.

        Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.

        NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO

        Saints covered last seven on road in 2019 and now 8-1 last 9 vs. points as visitor.
        Prior to Monday at rams, Bears 4-1 SU and vs. line as dog this season.
        Saints also “over” 7-2 last nine away and “over” 8-1 last nine since late 2019, though Bears “under” 13-8 since 2019 prior to Rams game.

        Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

        SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE

        “Overs” last four meetings.
        Niners 9-2 vs. spread as visitor since LY (3-0 in 2020), also covers in last seven as a dog.
        Hawks 2-1 vs. line at home in 2020 but close shaves vs. Pats and Cowboys, and just 5-9 vs. number last 14 at CenturyLink.

        Tech Edge: 49ers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

        L.A. CHARGERS at DENVER

        Broncos swept Bolts last season for first time since 2015.
        Bolts on 5-1 spread uptick in 2020, Denver 12-6 spread uptick since mid-2019.

        Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team and recent series trends.

        DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA

        Cowboys 0-7 vs. line TY, 2-10 last 12 on board since late 2019.
        Dallas also no covers last five away.
        Birds however just 2-7 vs. line last nine at Linc.
        Cowboys “over” 12-7 last 18 since early 2019, Birds “over” 7-4 last 11 reg season games.

        Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.


        Monday, Nov. 2

        TAMPA BAY at N.Y. GIANTS


        G-Men 3-0-1 vs. line last four, 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in 2020.
        Bucs 2-2 vs. line away TY, Arians teams “over” 31-15 since mid 2016 with Cards (16-7 “over” with Bucs; 4-3 in 2020). .

        Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • 101ATLANTA -102 CAROLINA
          ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 2 seasons.

          251INDIANAPOLIS -252 DETROIT
          DETROIT is 16-40 ATS (-28 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.

          253MINNESOTA -254 GREEN BAY
          MINNESOTA is 48-26 ATS (19.4 Units) vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.

          255NEW ENGLAND -256 BUFFALO
          BUFFALO is 24-7 ATS (16.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

          257TENNESSEE -258 CINCINNATI
          TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.

          259LAS VEGAS -260 CLEVELAND
          LAS VEGAS are 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game since 1992.

          261NY JETS -262 KANSAS CITY
          KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

          263LA RAMS -264 MIAMI
          LA RAMS are 15-5 ATS (9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

          267NEW ORLEANS -268 CHICAGO
          NEW ORLEANS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

          269SAN FRANCISCO -270 SEATTLE
          SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 in the last 2 seasons.

          271DALLAS -272 PHILADELPHIA
          DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the current season.

          273TAMPA BAY -274 NY GIANTS
          NY GIANTS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 2 seasons.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • NFL
            Dunkel

            Week 8


            Thursday, October 29

            Atlanta @ Carolina

            Game 101-102
            October 29, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Atlanta
            132.213
            Carolina
            127.528
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Atlanta
            by 4 1/2
            46
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Carolina
            by 2 1/2
            49
            Dunkel Pick:
            Atlanta
            (+2 1/2); Under


            Sunday, November 1

            Indianapolis @ Detroit


            Game 251-252
            November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Indianapolis
            136.881
            Detroit
            127.019
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Indianapolis
            by 10
            52
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Indianapolis
            by 2 1/2
            50
            Dunkel Pick:
            Indianapolis
            (-2 1/2); Over

            Minnesota @ Green Bay


            Game 253-254
            November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Minnesota
            126.469
            Green Bay
            137.146
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Green Bay
            by 10 1/2
            57
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Green Bay
            by 7
            54 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Green Bay
            (-7); Over

            NY Jets @ Kansas City


            Game 261-262
            November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            NY Jets
            118.164
            Kansas City
            144.443
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Kansas City
            by 26 1/2
            54
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Kansas City
            by 19 1/2
            48
            Dunkel Pick:
            Kansas City
            (-19 1/2); Over

            Las Vegas @ Cleveland


            Game 259-260
            November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Las Vegas
            127.807
            Cleveland
            134.438
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Cleveland
            by 6 1/2
            52
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Cleveland
            by 2 1/2
            54
            Dunkel Pick:
            Cleveland
            (-2 1/2); Under

            Pittsburgh @ Baltimore


            Game 281-282
            November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Pittsburgh
            134.735
            Baltimore
            144.935
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Baltimore
            by 10
            44
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Baltimore
            by 3 1/2
            46 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Baltimore
            (-3 1/2); Under

            Tennessee @ Cincinnati


            Game 257-258
            November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Tennessee
            139.526
            Cincinnati
            124.176
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Tennessee
            by 15 1/2
            59
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Tennessee
            by 5 1/2
            54 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Tennessee
            (-5 1/2); Over

            LA Rams @ Miami


            Game 263-264
            November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            LA Rams
            140.164
            Miami
            135.101
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            LA Rams
            by 5
            42
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            LA Rams
            by 3 1/2
            49
            Dunkel Pick:
            LA Rams
            (-3 1/2); Under

            New England @ Buffalo


            Game 255-256
            November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            New England
            121.608
            Buffalo
            134.997
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Buffalo
            by 13 1/2
            41
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Buffalo
            by 4
            44
            Dunkel Pick:
            Buffalo
            (-4); Under

            LA Chargers @ Denver


            Game 275-276
            November 1, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            LA Chargers
            125.930
            Denver
            129.970
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Denver
            by 4
            49
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            LA Chargers
            by 3
            44
            Dunkel Pick:
            Denver
            (+3); Over

            New Orleans @ Chicago


            Game 267-268
            November 1, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            New Orleans
            133.637
            Chicago
            128.658
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            New Orleans
            by 5
            37
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            New Orleans
            by 2 1/2
            47
            Dunkel Pick:
            New Orleans
            (-2 1/2); Under

            San Francisco @ Seattle


            Game 269-270
            November 1, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            San Francisco
            130.004
            Seattle
            140.690
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Seattle
            by 10 1/2
            62
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Seattle
            by 3
            54
            Dunkel Pick:
            Seattle
            (-3); Over

            Dallas @ Philadelphia


            Game 271-272
            November 1, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Dallas
            123.351
            Philadelphia
            124.648
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Philadelphia
            by 1 1/2
            51
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Philadelphia
            by 7 1/2
            43 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Dallas
            (+7 1/2); Over


            Monday, November 2

            Tampa Bay @ NY Giants


            Game 273-274
            November 2, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Tampa Bay
            143.022
            NY Giants
            123.035
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Tampa Bay
            by 20
            45
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Tampa Bay
            by 10 1/2
            48
            Dunkel Pick:
            Tampa Bay
            (-10 1/2); Under
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • NFL
              Long Sheet

              Week 8


              Thursday, October 29

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              ATLANTA (1 - 6) at CAROLINA (3 - 4) - 10/29/2020, 8:20 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
              CAROLINA is 86-59 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
              CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
              ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
              3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              Sunday, November 1

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              INDIANAPOLIS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
              DETROIT is 150-188 ATS (-56.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              MINNESOTA (1 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              GREEN BAY is 118-85 ATS (+24.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
              GREEN BAY is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
              GREEN BAY is 98-72 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
              GREEN BAY is 202-147 ATS (+40.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
              MINNESOTA is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
              GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
              3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              NEW ENGLAND (2 - 4) at BUFFALO (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              NEW ENGLAND is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 272-212 ATS (+38.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 272-212 ATS (+38.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 88-51 ATS (+31.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 130-99 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 130-99 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 209-155 ATS (+38.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 200-155 ATS (+29.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 132-93 ATS (+29.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 129-94 ATS (+25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
              NEW ENGLAND is 73-50 ATS (+18.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              BUFFALO is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
              NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
              3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              TENNESSEE (5 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              TENNESSEE is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
              TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
              TENNESSEE is 127-162 ATS (-51.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              LAS VEGAS (3 - 3) at CLEVELAND (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
              Top Trends for this game.

              LAS VEGAS is 56-86 ATS (-38.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
              LAS VEGAS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
              LAS VEGAS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              LAS VEGAS is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
              LAS VEGAS is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
              1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              NY JETS (0 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              NY JETS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
              NY JETS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
              NY JETS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
              NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
              KANSAS CITY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
              KANSAS CITY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
              KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
              KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
              KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
              KANSAS CITY is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
              KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
              KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              LA RAMS (5 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 3) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              LA RAMS are 78-108 ATS (-40.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
              MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
              LA RAMS are 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) at CHICAGO (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 4:25 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
              NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
              NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
              NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
              CHICAGO is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
              NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
              1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) at SEATTLE (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 4:25 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
              SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
              SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
              SEATTLE is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
              SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
              3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              DALLAS (2 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 4 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 8:20 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              DALLAS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games this season.
              DALLAS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
              DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
              DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
              2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              LA CHARGERS (2 - 4) at DENVER (2 - 4) - 11/1/2020, 4:05 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              LA CHARGERS are 131-96 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
              LA CHARGERS are 131-96 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
              LA CHARGERS are 104-75 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
              DENVER is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
              DENVER is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
              3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              PITTSBURGH (6 - 0) at BALTIMORE (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              PITTSBURGH is 84-56 ATS (+22.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
              PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              BALTIMORE is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
              BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
              2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              Monday, November 2

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/2/2020, 8:15 PM
              Top Trends for this game.
              TAMPA BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
              NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
              NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
              NY GIANTS are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
              NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
              NY GIANTS are 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
              NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

              Head-to-Head Series History
              NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
              NY GIANTS is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
              2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • NFL

                Week 8


                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Trend Report
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                Thursday, October 29

                Atlanta @ Carolina
                Atlanta
                Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
                The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
                Carolina
                The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
                Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


                Sunday, November 1

                Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
                Pittsburgh
                Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
                The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
                Baltimore
                Baltimore is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
                The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

                Minnesota @ Green Bay
                Minnesota
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
                The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing Green Bay
                Green Bay
                Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
                Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

                NY Jets @ Kansas City
                NY Jets
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
                The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
                Kansas City
                Kansas City is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
                Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

                Indianapolis @ Detroit
                Indianapolis
                Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
                Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
                Detroit
                The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
                Detroit is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games

                Tennessee @ Cincinnati
                Tennessee
                The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
                Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
                Cincinnati
                The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
                Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

                Las Vegas @ Cleveland
                Las Vegas
                The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
                Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
                Cleveland
                Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
                Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

                New England @ Buffalo
                New England
                New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
                New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
                Buffalo
                Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
                The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games

                LA Rams @ Miami
                LA Rams
                LA Rams is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
                LA Rams is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
                Miami
                Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
                Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing LA Rams

                LA Chargers @ Denver
                LA Chargers
                The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
                The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
                Denver
                Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
                The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

                San Francisco @ Seattle
                San Francisco
                San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
                San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
                Seattle
                Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco
                Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco

                New Orleans @ Chicago
                New Orleans
                New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
                The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
                Chicago
                The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
                Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

                Dallas @ Philadelphia
                Dallas
                Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
                Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
                Philadelphia
                The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 11 games at home
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas


                Monday, November 2

                Tampa Bay @ NY Giants
                Tampa Bay
                The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
                Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
                NY Giants
                The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
                NY Giants is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • This report will update....


                  NFL
                  Armadillo's Write-Up

                  Week 8


                  Falcons (1-6) @ Carolina (3-4)
                  — Falcons are 0-5 ATS when they score less than 39 points.
                  — Atlanta covered two of its three road games.
                  — Falcons lost 30-16 at Green Bay in their only outdoor game so far.
                  — Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in its last ten games as a road underdog.
                  — Three of their four games stayed under the total.

                  — Carolina lost its last two games, 23-16/27-24.
                  — Panthers lost two of its three home games this year.
                  — Carolina is 10-14 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite.
                  — Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.
                  — Over is 4-3 in Panther games this season.

                  — Carolina (+2.5) upset the Falcons 23-16 in Atlanta, three weeks ago, their first win in last six series games.
                  — Falcons won 24-10/29-3 in their last two visits to Charlotte.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • NFL Week 8 Injuries, Weather
                    Patrick Everson

                    Odell Beckham Jr. tore his left ACL early in Sunday's game at Cincinnati and is out for the season. The SuperBook factored that in when making the Browns 3-point home favorites against the Raiders.

                    NFL Week 7 is in the books, NFL Week 8 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the injury news, which this week features a big loss for a rising Cleveland Browns team: Odell Beckham Jr. is done for the season.

                    Week 8 Injuries

                    Cleveland Browns: Beckham suffered a torn left ACL on the first possession against Cincinnati on Sunday, so he now sets hits sights on next year, while the Browns move on without him. Late Sunday afternoon, The SuperBook at Westgate opened Cleveland a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders.

                    “We knew he was out for the year when we originally set the number,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said. “He’s worth maybe a half-point to the spread. He’s a good player.”

                    On Monday morning, the Browns ticked to -2.5. The total opened at 55.5 and was down to 54 by Monday afternoon.

                    Seattle Seahawks: Running back Chris Carson has a sprained foot, and his status is uncertain for a key Week 8 home game against San Francisco. And Carlos Hyde, Carson’s backup, has a hamstring issue. The Seahawks opened -3.5 at The SuperBook and ticked to -3 Monday morning, while the total was stable at 54.

                    San Francisco 49ers: Running back Jeff Wilson had a monster game at New England, with 17 carries for 112 yards and three touchdowns, but fell victim to a high ankle sprain. That’s on the heels of Raheem Mostert going on injured reserve with the same injury, so the Niners are thin in the backfield for Sunday’s game at Seattle. Still, this line moved from San Francisco +3.5 to +3 Monday at The SuperBook.

                    Dallas Cowboys: Quarterback Andy Dalton suffered a concussion on a wicked hit at Washington, so he’s uncertain for a key matchup at Philadelphia on Sunday night, in what’s become an awful NFC East. By late Monday night, The SuperBook still had the Cowboys-Eagles game off the board, awaiting clarity on whom Dallas will have under center.

                    Denver Broncos: Running back Phillip Lindsay is in concussion protocol, so his status is uncertain for this week’s home game against the Chargers. The SuperBook opened the game at a pick, and by Monday afternoon, Denver was already a 3-point underdog, though that’s mostly due to bettors’ impressions of each team.


                    Week 8 Weather

                    Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers:
                    The early forecast is not good for Thursday night in Charlotte. There could be a half-inch of rain during the day, more in the evening, and winds of 10-20 mph. By Monday night at The SuperBook, the total was down 2 points to 49.

                    Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins: On Monday, the forecast called for a 40 percent chance of rain and wind from 10-15 mph. That’s done nothing so far to the spread of Rams -3.5 nor the total of 49.

                    New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The forecast calls for rain earlier in the day, but the bigger issue could be wind hanging around, from 15-25 mph. On Monday, the total moved from 44.5 to 44 at The SuperBook.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • Hot & Not Report - Week 8
                      Matt Blunt

                      NFL Week 8 Betting Angles

                      Last week's piece had another solid showing as divisional home teams went 4-3 straight up to push that run to 16-7 SU since the start of Week 2.

                      Even in those three outright losses, the Bengals and Jets managed to get against the spread wins, for those bettors interested in taking the points instead with those home underdogs, as 'dogs in general in those division games in Week 7 finished with a 5-2 ATS record with Washington closing as the favorite.

                      There are a bunch more divisional matchups in Week 8, and some of them could be considered “Game of the Week” type candidates with the likes of Pittsburgh-Baltimore, and San Francisco-Seattle likely to get plenty of attention.

                      Those runs in division games that I outlined last week are definitely something to keep in the back of your mind as the Week 8 board gets broken down, but this week's piece shifts slightly away from that for one, and rehashes an even older run I mentioned a few weeks ago that continues to pay off.

                      Who's Hot

                      Since the start of Week 5, NFL underdogs in non-division Conference games are 11-4 ATS overall, including 8-2 ATS the last two weeks.


                      This run may have hit its peak in Week 6 with 'dogs going 6-0 ATS when the following underdogs connected:

                      Denver (at New England)
                      Chicago (at Carolina)
                      Atlanta (at Minnesota)
                      Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)
                      Tampa Bay (vs. Green Bay)
                      Arizona (at Dallas)

                      Things were brought back down to earth in Week 7 with a 2-2 ATS mark for the underdogs in that scenario (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Jacksonville and Chicago), but considering the games that are on the docket in Week 8 that fit into this situation, there are some interesting handicapping questions for every bettor to work through.

                      Who Do You Follow?

                      Bengals
                      Raiders
                      Jets
                      Bears
                      Giants

                      The Week 8 non-division Conference underdogs that would be in this 'play on' spot are Cincinnati +5.5 (vs. Tennessee), Las Vegas +2.5 (at Cleveland), the New York Jets +19.5 (at Kansas City), Chicago +2.5 (vs. New Orleans), and the New York Giants (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay.

                      Now, it's understandable for most to want to have nothing to do with either of the New York squads right off the bat and I don't think anyone can blame you for not wanting to back the Jets or the Giants right now.

                      But those are still a lot of points to pass up in both of those games, as I do think the most likely result in the big picture is seeing at least one of those New York teams cover the number.

                      Who that ends up being is part of the fun of breaking down games each week, but with early support already showing on the Jets – that line opened up at +21 – and against the Giants – that line opened up at +9.5 – it appears as the early bettors in the marketplace prefer the much bigger cushion with the Jets against a KC team that's got a great chance to potentially be disinterested in being expected to win by 20+.

                      The other three teams are much more interesting though, with the Bears and Bengals coming in as home 'dogs.

                      After Chicago's rough offensive showing on MNF, I would expect that number to move against Chicago as the week goes on because that offense shouldn't be able to keep up with New Orleans, at least on paper. With the Saints having covered the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago – including a 36-25 win in Chicago last year – any Bears support is probably best to sit on until later in the week and the line reveals it's nature of movement.

                      Cincinnati and its defense is going to have to find an answer for stopping this Titans offense that just continues to put up points each week – they've averaged 34.4 points per game in their last five. But the Bengals have grown used to having a defense that has trouble stopping basically everyone – Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in all of their games since Week 2 – but they are still 5-1 ATS in that span.

                      The Bengals have made a conscious effort to make this year about developing the offense in Year 1 for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and they'll figure out the defense later.

                      Even without this situational trend suggesting a play on the Bengals, it's teams like the Bengals that put the majority of their effort in on offense that can be a great bet when catching points.


                      Who's Not

                      NFL teams before a TNF (or scheduled TNF appearance) are now 2-10 SU on the year and 3-8-1 ATS


                      This is a run that's just continued on since I brought it up at the start of Week 5.

                      And after getting burned yet again by the Atlanta Falcons this past weekend (I've personally been on Atlanta vs Dallas, Chicago and now Detroit), and then seeing that the Falcons are up on TNF this week, I thought it best to put out this friendly reminder (for myself and others) to really think long and hard about backing these teams in this spot.

                      The Carolina Panthers are the Falcons opponent this week, and while Carolina did account for one of those three ATS wins when they covered vs New Orleans, they still found a way to lose outright.

                      I put in the “scheduled TNF appearance” because of what happened with the Chiefs/Bills game that was originally scheduled for a TNF appearance before virus issues pushed that game back to Monday.

                      Even still, the week before the Chiefs and Bills met, the Raiders upset the Chiefs as huge underdogs, and Buffalo got their doors blown off by the Titans. Those two results are included in that 2-10 SU run.

                      Who do you Fade?

                      Packers
                      49ers

                      And bringing up the reminder for this scenario this week is important because with Week 9's TNF game slated for Green Bay at San Francisco, we've got two high profile Week 8 games (Minnesota at Green Bay, SF at Seattle) where it's applicable.

                      Minnesota has not had this year go as planned, but they are coming off a bye week (extra prep time) and are a team that the majority of the marketplace has already written off. With Green Bay being one of the most popular selections across the board in Week 7 and cashing easily vs Houston, support for the Packers will likely be through the roof again this week.

                      But any team off a bye should always be considered at least a little dangerous from an ATS perspective, especially when it's a divisional opponent they know rather well.

                      It's also one of the ultimate “buy low, sell high” scenarios as buying low on the Vikings with the market perception being so negative on them, and selling high on a Packers team that just got the masses paid after a small setback in Tampa Bay. It really is tough to ignore getting that TD with a post-bye week Vikings squad.

                      Fading the 49ers as a small road 'dog should make many happy that they get to back QB Russell Wilson in that case, but as I talked about in this piece before the Arizona game, Seattle's still a bad team on 3rd down (AKA “the money down”) on both sides of the ball (5-for-13 on offense vs Arizona).

                      The 519 total yards Seattle's defense gave up put them in the NFL record books for the most yards allowed through six games in the history of the league (2,875), and if that's not the profile of a bad football team, I'm not sure what is.

                      The situation may favor a play on Seattle in this spot, but the blind spot in the market right now with many believing Seattle is actually a good football TEAM is something that's probably better to look to exploit rather than back.

                      Meaning as funny as this may sound, it's actually the 1-5 SU Minnesota Vikings that appear to be the much better bet than the 5-1 Seattle Seahawks.

                      Many won't agree with that and that's fine, I've got no problem letting the “One Man Army” that the Seahawks are with Russell Wilson continue to be overvalued.

                      I'm sure the band Our Lady Peace and their 90's hit “One Man Army" from my formative years would be proud of what they see in the Seahawks this year.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • Thursday’s 6-pack
                        Odds for the PGA event in Bermuda this week:

                        11-1— Zalatoris
                        14— Todd
                        20-1— Varner
                        25-1— Grillo
                        28-1— Redman
                        35-1— Hoffman, McCarthy, Norlander, Stenson, Suh, Tringale, Ventura, Wise

                        Americans who have died from COVID-19: 227,421
                        PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


                        Quote of the Day
                        “The only motive was that the lineup the Dodgers feature is as potent as any team in the league. I felt Blake had done his job and then some. Mookie [Betts] coming around the third time through, I value that. I totally respect and understand the questions that come with [the decision]. Blake gave us every opportunity to win. He was outstanding.”
                        Kevin Cash, trying to explain why he took Blake Snell out Tuesday

                        Thursday’s quiz
                        Who was the Carolina Panthers’ QB the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

                        Wednesday’s quiz
                        Bills’ QB Josh Allen played his college football at Wyoming

                        Tuesday’s quiz
                        Oakland/LA/Las Vegas Raiders haven’t won a road playoff game since 1980; they got their last road playoff win against the Chargers in San Diego.


                        *****************************


                        Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

                        13) First of all, thanks to all the MLB/NBA players (NHL too, but I don’t want watch much hockey) for entertaining us for the last several months. 2020 has been a cruddy year, and while I know pro athletes make a boatload of money, they put up with unusual circumstances and put on a good show for us this season. Their efforts are appreciated.

                        12) NBA’s revenue dropped 10% to $8.3B for the 2019-20 season amid losses because of the coronavirus pandemic. Losses included $800M loss in gate receipts and a $400M loss in sponsorships and merchandise.

                        Losses also included $200M in deemed “net negative impact” from a months-long splintering of a partnership with China, after then-Rockets GM Daryl Morey tweeted something about Hong Kong that ticked off the Chinese government.

                        11) Speaking of Morey, he lands on his feet in Philadelphia, where he will be named president of basketball operations, with Elton Brand staying on as GM of the 76ers.

                        An educated person told me that he thinks the Sixers will play Ben Simmons inside at the 5 (center), where he will be a superior passer.

                        10) Utah Jazz are being sold for $1.6B, so while NBA revenues are down, owning an NBA team is still a good thing.

                        9) If travel between US and Canada still isn’t allowed by the time the NBA season starts, then Kansas City is pushing to be the temporary home of the Toronto Raptors.

                        There was a time when Kansas City had an NBA team; the Kings later moved to Sacramento.

                        8) Sunday night’s Seattle-Arizona game was the 14th NFL game since 1988 where both teams gained 500+ total yards.

                        7) Wisconsin Badgers have 12 COVID positives, their game with Nebraska this week has been cancelled. Badgers’ head coach and two of their QB’s tested positive over the weekend.

                        6) National League has now won seven of the last 11 World Series.

                        5 LA Rams changed kickers Tuesday; Sam Sloman was told to take a hike, and Kai Forbath is the new kicker.

                        4) There are rumors floating around that Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence may stay in college for his senior season, instead of going to the NFL, if the Jets wind up with the #1 pick.

                        Thing is, Jets have a bunch of high draft picks coming up, and figure to get more if they deal Sam Darnold; they may not be terrible for much longer.

                        3) I stumbled upon the movie Brian’s Song the other night, the 1971 original with James Caan and Billy Dee Williams. Great movie, sad movie, the true story of the friendship between two running backs on the Bears, Gale Sayers and Brian Piccolo.

                        I was 10 years old when it first aired on ABC’s Tuesday Night Movie; first movie that made me cry. If you see it on your TV listings, it is well worth watching.

                        2) Tuesday night, top of the 4th inning, and FOX does an interview with Kevin Cash while the game is going on; WHY?!?!?!? It is the bleeping World Series and you’re bothering a manager to do a nonsensical interview. Maybe if they asked him if he was going to stupidly remove his pitcher after 73 pitches, then maybe the interview would’ve made sense.

                        Speaking of Blake Snell, last time he finished the 6th inning was 20 starts ago, back in July 2019. But he was rolling Tuesday night; it was almost like they wanted to take him out.

                        1) Case Keenum is the backup QB in Cleveland this year; I’m hoping he writes a book someday, because he’s had an interesting career:

                        2007-11— Keenum was a 4-year starter for the Houston Cougars; he threw for 19,217 yards and 155 touchdowns. They retired his number.
                        2012— Keenum wasn’t drafted, but made the Houston Texans’ practice squad.
                        2013— Went 0-8 as the Texans’ starter.

                        2014— Bounced between St Louis/Houston, going 2-0 as the Texans’ starter.
                        2015-16— Went 7-7 as starter for the Rams, as they moved from St Louis to Los Angeles; he was 4-5 as Rams’ starter in 2016, before he got benched in favor of rookie Jared Goff.
                        2017— Went 11-3 as the starter in Minnesota; they pulled off a late-game miracle and beat the Saints 29-24, then lost 38-7 to the Eagles.

                        2018— Went 6-10 as the starter in Denver- they lost their last four games.
                        2019— Went 1-7 as the starter in Washington; was benched for rookie Dwayne Haskins.
                        2020— Is now Baker Mayfield’s backup in Cleveland.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • Falcons vs. Panthers Week 8 Odds, Preview
                          Matt Blunt

                          We are already at Week 8 of this very unusual 2020 NFL season, and with the expanded playoffs in place this year, talk about playoff seeding and who's got a chance to get in etc is getting ready to dominate the airwaves.

                          It's also a point in the season where many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings right now are likely a loss or two away from punting on the campaign, so keep that in mind as well in the coming weeks.

                          The Atlanta Falcons are one of those organizations that are basically already in that punt mode for 2020 and they really have nobody but themselves to blame. They've given away wins vs Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit already this year, so the 1-6 SU record that they enter this Thursday Night Football (TNF) game with really should be much closer to .500.

                          I'm not entirely sure if that's an indictment on just how many self-inflicted mistakes this organization has made since losing the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I do know that the majority in the market would believe it to be so.

                          So the question is, can that be exploited in this divisional rematch game (Carolina won 23-16 in Atlanta a few weeks back) or is this just going to be another case of the Falcons finding new and creative ways to get in the way of their own success?

                          Betting Resources

                          Week 8 Matchup: NFC South
                          Venue: Bank of America Stadium
                          Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
                          Date: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
                          Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
                          TV: NFL Network

                          The Panthers seek the season sweep of the Falcons after winning in Atlanta earlier this month. (AP)

                          Falcons-Panthers Betting Odds

                          Spread: Carolina -3
                          Money-Line: Carolina -140, Atlanta +130
                          Total: 50.5

                          2020 Betting Stats

                          Atlanta

                          Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
                          Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
                          Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
                          Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 26)
                          Offense YPG: 401.0 (Rank 6)
                          Defense YPG: 425.9 (Rank 31)

                          Carolina

                          Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
                          Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
                          Offense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 25)
                          Defense PPG: 24.0 (Rank 13)
                          Offense YPG: 369.1 (Rank 15)
                          Defense YPG: 351.1 (Rank 13)

                          Handicapping the Total

                          Carolina's 23-16 win over the Falcons a few weeks back was a dead nuts to the 'under', but it was also a game that was dominated by drives from both teams stalling.

                          Six total FG's were kicked in that game, and four of those six came from inside 40 yards as it was the Panthers who accounted for three of those four sub-40 yard tries.

                          Oddly enough, that's actually a positive for this Falcons defense, and for 'under' thoughts, but I'm not sure they'll be able to duplicate that performance and get off the field on 3rd down as much as they did in that game.

                          Carolina still converted 50% of their 3rd downs in that game (6-for-12), and on the road this year, Atlanta has allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd downs. That number puts them in the bottom third of the league overall and puts them right in line with what happened in the first game.

                          However, at the same time, Carolina's 2nd last in the league in overall opponent 3rd down conversion percentage at 56.32%, as they are a team that has only really gotten worse in that regard.

                          The better than projected start that this new coaching regime (Matt Rhule) had in Carolina has cooled off a bit now, and even with all of the blunders Atlanta has committed this year (and previous years) in blowing games, they are still a team loaded with talent on offense if quarterback Matt Ryan can consistently protect the ball and get it to all those weapons he does have.

                          Put it all together, and even with it being a short week and those games tending to lean towards lower scoring affairs, the only way I can look at this total is to go 'over' the number. Carolina might have running back Christian McCaffrey back this week and I don't need to go on to explain how big of a weapon he is for this team.

                          Finally, in each of the last two seasons, these two teams have always managed to cash the opposite result on the total in their 2nd meeting of the year – ie if the first game went 'over' the second went 'under' – and after some initial action bumped this total down, it's started to climb back up and over the 50-point threshold.

                          Hard not to agree with that latter move in this instance.

                          Head-to-Head History

                          Oct. 11, 2020 - Carolina 23 at Atlanta 16, Panthers +2.5, Under 53.5
                          Dec. 8, 2019 - Atlanta 40 vs. Carolina 20, Falcons -3.5, Over 48
                          Nov. 17, 2019 - Atlanta 29 at Carolina 3, Falcons +3.5, Under 49
                          Dec. 23, 2018 - Atlanta 24 at Carolina 10, Falcons -3, Under 46

                          Handicapping the Side

                          The Falcons may not have a lot going for them in terms of how they are viewed by the outside world, but they are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, and since the start of last season, traditional TNF games (not counting Thanksgiving) between division rivals has seen the underdog go on to cash a spread wager in eight of their 10 opportunities.

                          That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season with the New York Giants covering at Philadelphia last Thursday and Cincinnati earning the late cover at Cleveland in Week 2.

                          But understandably so, trusting the Falcons to get the job done is going to be next to impossible for many in the betting market with them getting less than a FG here.

                          There really is very little defense for some of the gaffs this team has had in blowing games this year, but there are plenty of other teams in this league that are just as average overall as the Falcons are, but they get a pass because they tend to win all the close games they are in. The Seattle Seahawks (up until losing to Arizona last week) come to mind.

                          The Falcons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Panthers, and that includes games that were played in the years that Carolina and Atlanta ultimately made a Super Bowl appearance.

                          It's far from the best number to be confident in backing this 2020 Atlanta team, but as tough as it may be to submit a wager on the Falcons, they are the only way I can look at the side. That being said, +2.5 is not something I'm excited at all about taking.

                          Therefore, I do believe that the best way to go overall in this game is to actually go the teaser route with both the side and total. Remember, you can't blow as many games as the Falcons have of late without first having a lead, and with a team like Atlanta that you know always finds a way to play tight games, taking all the points you can with them is a plus.

                          So teasing the Falcons up to +8.5 with the total down to 44.5 on a 6-point teaser is where my money has landed this week.

                          Key Injuries

                          Atlanta


                          DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
                          OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
                          C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable
                          WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
                          WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable

                          Carolina

                          RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
                          DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
                          DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
                          DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
                          CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
                          OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable
                          G John Miller: Ankle - Questionable
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29

                            GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

                            ATL at CAR 08:20 PM
                            ATL +1.5
                            O 52.0
                            +500 +500
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • COMPLETED PICKS

                              Past Completed Picks

                              DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


                              10/29/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              10/26/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                              10/25/2020 9-12-1 43.18% -2100 Detail
                              10/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                              10/19/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                              10/18/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
                              10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
                              10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                              10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
                              10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                              10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
                              10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
                              09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
                              09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
                              09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
                              09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

                              Totals........86-97-4.......46.99%.....107.50
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                              Comment


                              • Saturday’s 6-pack
                                — AJ Hinch will be next manager of the Detroit Tigers.
                                — Milwaukee Brewers won’t pick up the 2021 option of 14-year veteran Ryan Braun.
                                — Tampa Bay won’t pick up the options of Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino.
                                — Hedge fund guy Steve Cohen was confirmed as the new owner of the Mets.
                                — Maryland 45, Minnesota 44 OT— Gophers missed a PAT in overtime.
                                — Tulsa 34, East Carolina 30— Tulsa scored winning TD with 0:29 left.

                                Americans who have died from COVID-19: 228,808
                                PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

                                Quote of the Day
                                “When we got to the lobby, she stopped the wheelchair and walked around to face me. With a look of seriousness in her eyes, she told me, ‘I can’t tell you how happy I am to take you out of this hospital in a wheelchair instead of a body bag’.”
                                This is what a nurse said to a COVID patient leaving a Texas hospital this week

                                Saturday’s quiz
                                Which college basketball conference has three teams whose mascot is a Ram?

                                Friday’s quiz
                                John Fox was the Carolina Panthers’ coach the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

                                Thursday’s quiz
                                Jake Delhomme was the Carolina Panthers’ QB the first time they played in a Super Bowl.


                                *************************


                                SaturdaysDen: NFL trends with Week 8 upon us

                                Before we start with today’s list of NFL trends, here are just some of the many reasons why I voted for Joe Biden this week. I don’t belong to a political party; I’m posting these because I think it is important that Biden wins, for the sake of our democracy and the rule of law.

                                — Joe Biden was Vice-President for 8 years; he knows how the government is supposed to run.

                                Trump went broke running a casino. He still has $1B in outstanding debt.

                                — Joe Biden wears a mask when he is out in public.

                                Trump’s negligence has helped kill 228,000 Americans.

                                — Trump paid someone to take the SAT’s for him.
                                — Trump is a racist; the American President shouldn’t be a racist.

                                — Joe Biden’s four granddaughters did a video telling stories about everyday things like how he calls them all the time, how he likes ice cream, normal family stuff. He’s a good person.

                                Trump’s niece wrote a book saying what a cruddy person her uncle is.

                                — Did I mention that Trump went broke running a casino, or that the NFL wouldn’t let him buy the Buffalo Bills, or that in the mid-80’s, he ruined the USFL?

                                We all have to do what we think is best, but I like living in a democracy, and the best way to preserve this democracy is if Joe Biden gets elected next week.

                                On to random NFL trends…….
                                13) Five of Chicago’s last six games stayed under the total.

                                12) Detroit’s three wins stayed under the total; their three losses losses all went over.

                                11) Over is 4-0-1 in Tennessee’s last five games.

                                10) In their last four games, Jacksonville allowed 20.8 ppg, just in the 2nd half!!!

                                9) Tampa Bay outscored its last four foes 64-23 in the second half.

                                8) Giants covered four of their last six games; their last three games were decided by a total of five points.

                                7) Colts won four of their last five games; they converted 19 of last 41 third down plays.

                                6) 49ers outscored their last two opponents 44-9 in the first half.

                                5) Green Bay won/covered five of its six games; their last three games stayed under.

                                4) Buffalo’s first four games: they scored 30.8 ppg
                                Buffalo’s last three games: they scored 17 ppg

                                3) Over is 6-0 in Raider games; they gave up 30+points in five of those games.

                                2) Dallas is 0-7 against the spread this season.

                                1) Cleveland scored 32+ points in its five wins, 6-7 points in their losses.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                                Comment

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