The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
344— Buffalo +6.5- W
337— LA Rams +3- W
304— Atlanta +2.5- L
303— Tennessee -2.5
280— Arizona +6.5- W
243— Pittsburgh -6- W

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 194,367
Please wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Steelers 26, Giants 16:
— Pitt led 16-10 late in 3rd quarter; Giants had a 19-play drive that ended on an end zone INT.
— Last five years, Pittsburgh is 15-6 ATS against NFC teams.
— 11 of Steelers’ last 14 road openers stayed under the total.

— Barkley carried ball 15 times for 6 yards; he caught 6 passes for 60 yards.
— Giants started one drive on Pittsburgh’s 3-yard line but only kicked a FG.
— Giants started out 0-1 eight of last nine years.
— Giants are 4-14 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

12) Titans 16, Denver 14
— Titans missed three FG’s and a PAT, but kicked 25-yard FG with 0:17 left for the win.
— The was the Oilers/Titans’ first win in Denver since 1980 (they also won a 1987 replacement game, but I don’t count that)
— Tennessee won seven of last eight road openers, covered nine of last 13.

— Broncos were stopped on downs on the Tennessee 1-yard line in 2nd quarter.
— Titans converted 7-16 on 3rd down, Denver only 3-9.
— Denver is 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 home openers.

11) Why did the Houston Texans trade DeAndre Hopkins? Isn’t it important to keep your best players, especially when your young QB is growing into being an elite player? Going to be a lot of heat on Texans’ management if they regress on offense this season.

My high school Chemistry teacher was Bill Warner (no relation to Kurt); he was a great teacher, also a licensed pilot, a basketball referee, a brilliant guy. When something made no sense to him, he would call it “nonsensical” He is the only person I’ve ever heard use that word.

To me, the Texans trading Hopkins was nonsensical.

10) No NFL head coach has ever won Super Bowls with two different teams.

Only two guys (Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren) made it to a Super Bowl with another team, after winning a title somewhere else.

9) NFL supposedly wants more scoring in their games, but two huge offensive plays in the last minute of close games were nullified Sunday by offensive pass interference calls. If you want more points to be scored, why would you point the officials towards calling more offensive PI?

Bengals scored a TD with 0:06 left that was negated; Dallas completed a long pass that would’ve set up a game-tying field goal. Wide receivers pushing off has been overlooked for decades; Michael Irvin is in the Hall of Fame because of that.

The NFL makes their rules, the officials just enforce them; I don’t understand this apparent change in direction.

8) Last 16 years, Cleveland Browns are 0-15-1 in their season openers; they threw 10 passes to Odell Beckham Sunday in Baltimore, but completed only three of them.

7) Mike D’Antoni’s NBA coaching record: 16 years, 672-527 in regular season games, 54-56 in playoff games. If he still wants to coach, hard to believe someone won’t hire him.

6) Denver Nuggets are first NBA team ever to have four straight playoff series go 7 games.

5) Overlooked with all the football Sunday was Alec Mills throwing a no-hitter for the Cubs in Milwaukee, in his 15th career start.

Earlier this season, Lucas Giolito threw a no-hitter for the White Sox; this is the first season ever that both Chicago franchises had a pitcher throw a no-hitter in the same season.

4) Over the last 21 years, Washington Redskins have started 13 different quarterbacks in their season opener. This isn’t a good thing.

3) Big day for Mets fans; the Wilpon family and Saul Katz have agreed to sell the Mets to billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen, which has to help the team a lot. The Wilpons were horrendous owners.

Trivia: If you watch Billions on Showtime, Damian Lewis’ character Bobby Axelrod is loosely based on Cohen. He is a rich guy, really rich.

2) Atlanta Braves signed Pablo Sandoval to a minor league deal, after the Giants released him. Sandoval could be a DH for the Braves down the stretch.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, New York

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Philadelphia, San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds Week 2: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks notched a 38-25 victory at Atlanta in Week 1. The SuperBook then opened Seattle -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 against visiting New England in Week 2.

NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, with NFL Week 2 odds posted and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups, the New England Patriots travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the Las Vegas Raiders open their brand-new stadium – albeit with no fans – against the New Orleans Saints in the Monday night game.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NFL Week 2 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 2 odds

These are the current NFL Week 2 odds, as of September 13. Click on each matchup in the table below to get updated in-depth information on the opening lines, sharp money, public betting, and odds movement as we get closer to kickoff.



Bengals at Browns

Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Browns -6.5, down from a look-ahead number (last week) of -7.5, and we are now at -6," SuperBook executive director John Murray said Sunday night. "Cleveland didn't look good (at Baltimore), and there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to perform in the next few weeks. I don't know what we did to deserve this gem in prime time in Week 2." The last part of that comment was dripping with sarcasm, to be sure.


Rams at Eagles

Opening line
Eagles -2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Murray said there was no early movement on this game, which was pulled off the board once the Cowboys-Rams game began Sunday night. It will go back up Monday morning.
"Philadelphia is a very banged-up team with a decimated offensive line," Murray said, pointing specifically to right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle). "It's hard to recommend a play in this game without knowing the status of Johnson."


Panthers at Buccaneers odds

Opening line
Buccaneers -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Broncos at Steelers

Opening line
Steelers -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Falcons at Cowboys

Opening line
Cowboys -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line was only up Sunday until the Rams-Cowboys game kicked off, and there was no movement at The SuperBook. The line will go back up Monday morning.


49ers at Jets

Opening line
Jets +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Bills at Dolphins

Opening line
Dolphins +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Vikings at Colts

Opening line
Colts -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Lions at Packers

Opening line
Packers -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Packers were a big public play in Week 1 and proved deserving in a 43-34 road victory over Minnesota. But there was no line movement on the Lions-Packers game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Giants at Bears

Opening line
Bears -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Jaguars at Titans

Opening line
Titans -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Washington at Cardinals

Opening line
Cardinals -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Although Arizona posted an impressive Week 1 win at defending NFC champion San Francisco, there was no line movement on this Week 2 game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Ravens at Texans

Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened -6 and moved quickly to -6.5. No point in waiting," Murray said of a quick move at The SuperBook. "The public will be all over the Ravens in this game, after watching both of these teams play in Week 1. The Texans may be the biggest need of the week for sportsbooks next Sunday in the early games."


Chiefs at Chargers

Opening line
Chiefs -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City looked good in a 34-20 Thursday night home win over Houston. Los Angeles didn't look that good in barely beating host Cincinnati 16-13 Sunday. So it was no surprise Sunday night to see the Chiefs quickly move to -7.5 for this AFC West clash.


Patriots at Seahawks

Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4," Murray said of a Sunday night uptick at The SuperBook. "Seattle looked very potent offensively (at Atlanta). Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson looked like an MVP. This will be a huge test for Cam Newton. The public will be on the Seahawks, and the books will be rooting for another 'dog on Sunday night."


Saints at Raiders

Opening line
+4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -4.5 and moved quickly to -5.5," Murray said. "It pains me to talk about this game, thinking about how great it could’ve been for this city. What an event that would’ve been at the new stadium. It will still be a huge handle game, with the public all over the Saints on the road."

[StarDust Bum]

NFL betting tips for Week 2: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Cam Newton looked great in his debut as the New England Patriots QB, including 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins.

I’m a big fan of Week 2. The NFL betting markets overreact to one week of results and there are a lot of extra points hanging around for the picking.

The best NFL betting strategy is to spot those overreactions early and plan your attack: do you grab the number now or wait it out and bet later? It all comes down to your opinion on the spread or total.

If you’re scouring the NFL Week 2 odds, these are our NFL betting tips for the best games to bet now and later.

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs Dallas Cowboys: Bet Now

The freshest game in the minds of NFL bettors when the Week 2 odds hit the board is the Sunday Night Football result. And this past Sunday night, we saw the Dallas Cowboys stacked offense flounder for only 17 points and come up short with the game on the line in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

The Week 2 spread opened Dallas as high as -7 hosting the Atlanta Falcons (and there are still some sevens out there as of Monday morning) but has started to drop to -6.5, with early play on the Falcons. The Cowboys’ loss in L.A. as well as injuries to key contributors on both sides of the ball is influencing that action.

Atlanta, on the other hand, fell to Seattle 38-25 in Week 1 but still posted 450 yards through the air — a stat that should make Dallas’ shaky pass defense very nervous. If you like the road underdog in this 1 p.m. ET matchup, get the Falcons now at +7 or +6.5 before it dips to six.


Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (+5.5): Bet Later

This spread opened as low as Buffalo Bills -5, with books hanging a dead number and allowing early action to dictate the move to the key number. That initial money pushed the spread to Buffalo -5.5 and will likely go to -6 very quickly.

The Bills’ 2020 debut wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either. They raced out to a 21-3 halftime lead over the New York Jets before getting outscored 14-6 in the final 30 minutes, but the offense looks like a capable complement to an already-stingy stop unit.

The Miami Dolphins fell in Foxborough to the new-look New England Patriots but weren’t blown away by any means. Miami was held back by three interceptions from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tua time?) and made New England bettors sweat until the final five minutes. If you’re getting down on the Dolphins, wait and see if this gets to +6 or higher.


New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Over 44): Bet Now

The Seattle Seahawks just walked into Hot-lanta and outscored the Falcons on their fast home track, which is not an easy feat. Seattle posted 38 points with Russell Wilson airing it out for 322 yards to a bevy of receiving options while keeping the defense guessing with a versatile rushing corps.

Cam Newton was the engine behind the Patriots in Week 1, giving New England fans 75 yards and two scores on the ground to go along with a steady day dropping back. Granted, those results came against Miami and the Seahawks defense is a tougher task, but we expect the Pats offense to continue to grow and gain traction.

This Over/Under opened at 44 points and outside of some tinkering with the juice, it’s staying there as of Monday morning. However, with the "Yes we Cam" headlines flooding the NFL news wires and the Seahawks scoring 38 points (as well as no 12th Man advantage in CenturyLink in Week 2), I expect money to show on the Over. Grab the Over 44 points now before this total steps off the key number.


Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans (Over 52.5): Bet Later

This Over/Under was as big as 54.5 points when select books posted lookahead lines for Week 2 back in the spring. The true Week 2 opener went up at 53 points Sunday night, and immediate money took the Under and slimmed the total to 52.5.

The Houston Texans' offense looked lost for the majority of its season opener versus Kansas City last Thursday, and it was obvious Deshaun Watson missed having DeAndre Hopkins as a failsafe. But, the Texans have had that mini-bye to tighten the bolts and should show better with the football at home in Week 2.

The Baltimore Ravens showed zero signs of rust in its Week 1 walkthrough versus Cleveland. The Ravens scored 38 points and limited the Browns to only six, which was a combo of solid defense from Baltimore and Cleveland trying out a new system for the first time.

Plenty of books have 52.5 Over/Under on the board and have already discounted the juice on the Over to slow the early play on the Under. If you predict plenty of offense for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, be patient and see how low it will go.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 2 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

49ers star tight end George Kittle suffered a sprained left knee in a Week 1 loss to Arizona. His status for Week 2 against the New York Jets is currently up in the air.

NFL Week 1 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 2 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. Maybe a key player got dinged up last weekend, or public opinion is forming around a convincing Week 1 winner.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet will serve as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.

Week 2 Injuries

New York Jets: Running back Le’Veon Bell will be out this week at home against the 49ers, and perhaps longer, with a hamstring injury suffered in Sunday’s loss to the Bills. The SuperBook at Westgate has New York a 6.5-point home underdog to San Francisco.

San Francisco 49ers: Star tight end George Kittle has a sprained left knee, the team announced Monday. More will be known on Kittle’s status by midweek, but it wasn’t affecting the line much at The SuperBook at Westgate. The 49ers opened -6.5 at the Jets and bounced to -7 a couple of times, then back to -6.5.

New Orleans Saints: Wideout Michael Thomas suffered a high ankle injury against the Buccaneers, but early indications are that he’ll be OK for Week 2 at the Raiders. Bettors aren’t concerned, having already helped push the Saints from -4.5 to -6 at The SuperBook.

Indianapolis Colts: Running back Marlon Mack tore his Achilles in the second quarter of Sunday’s loss to Jacksonville, and he is done for the season. Whatever impact Mack’s absence has on the line was factored into The SuperBook’s opening number of -3, which stuck after going up Sunday night.

Cleveland Browns: Rookie left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (leg) is questionable for Thursday’s home game against the Bengals, while tight end David Njoku was place on the injured reserve with a sprained left knee. The Browns opened -6.5 at The SuperBook and quickly dropped to -6.

Week 2 Weather

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon in Tampa, with a 40 percent chance, with north/northeast winds of 10-20 mph. SuperBook oddsmakers opened the total at 49 and left it there through Monday.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: As in Tampa, there’s a 40 percent chance of afternoon rain in Miami on Sunday. The total, though, is steady at 41.5 at The SuperBook.

[StarDust Bum]

101CINCINNATI -102 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.

261LA RAMS -262 PHILADELPHIA
LA RAMS are 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

263CAROLINA -264 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

265DENVER -266 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 79-46 ATS (28.4 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts. since 1992.

267ATLANTA -268 DALLAS
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after an upset loss in the last 3 seasons.

269SAN FRANCISCO -270 NY JETS
NY JETS are 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) off a road loss against a division rival since 1992.

271BUFFALO -272 MIAMI
BUFFALO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) off a home win against a division rival since 1992.

273MINNESOTA -274 INDIANAPOLIS
MINNESOTA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.

275DETROIT -276 GREEN BAY
DETROIT is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

277NY GIANTS -278 CHICAGO
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts. in the last 3 seasons.

279JACKSONVILLE -280 TENNESSEE
JACKSONVILLE is 26-12 ATS (12.8 Units) in road games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.

281WASHINGTON -282 ARIZONA
WASHINGTON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better in the last 3 seasons.

283BALTIMORE -284 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

285KANSAS CITY -286 LA CHARGERS
KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

287NEW ENGLAND -288 SEATTLE
NEW ENGLAND is 33-11 ATS (20.9 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.

289NEW ORLEANS -290 LAS VEGAS
NEW ORLEANS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games in the last 3 seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 17

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CINCINNATI (0 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/17/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 20

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LA RAMS (1 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 149-192 ATS (-62.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 76-107 ATS (-41.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (0 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (7 - 9) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (7 - 9) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (15 - 4) at NY JETS (7 - 9) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (10 - 7) at MIAMI (5 - 11) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (11 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 9) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (3 - 12 - 1) at GREEN BAY (14 - 4) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 199-146 ATS (+38.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (4 - 12) at CHICAGO (8 - 8) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 54-81 ATS (-35.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (6 - 10) at TENNESSEE (11 - 8) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-159 ATS (-49.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 13) at ARIZONA (5 - 10 - 1) - 9/20/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 68-97 ATS (-38.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (14 - 3) at HOUSTON (11 - 7) - 9/20/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (15 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (5 - 11) - 9/20/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (12 - 5) at SEATTLE (12 - 6) - 9/20/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 88-49 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-97 ATS (+23.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-97 ATS (+23.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-90 ATS (+31.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 21

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NEW ORLEANS (13 - 4) at LAS VEGAS (7 - 9) - 9/21/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LAS VEGAS is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 17

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati


Sunday, September 20

Detroit @ Green Bay
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit

NY Giants @ Chicago
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games at home
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Atlanta @ Dallas
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Dallas is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home

San Francisco @ NY Jets
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
NY Jets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

LA Rams @ Philadelphia
LA Rams
LA Rams is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams

Carolina @ Tampa Bay
Carolina
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

Denver @ Pittsburgh
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games

Minnesota @ Indianapolis
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

Buffalo @ Miami
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 11 games on the road
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Washington @ Arizona
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Washington

Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games

Baltimore @ Houston
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

Monday, September 21

New England @ Seattle
New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing Seattle
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing New England
Seattle is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing New England

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+7, ML +280) at 49ers, 24-20
Jaguars (+7, ML +280) vs. Colts, 27-20
Football Team (+5.5, ML +210) vs. Eagles, 27-17
Bears (+2.5, ML +110) at Lions, 27-23

The largest favorite to cover

Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Texans, 34-20
Patriots (-7) vs. Dolphins, 21-11
Ravens (-7) vs. Browns, 38-6
Bills (-6.5) vs. Jets, 27-17

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

It happens. You'll see that guy in the corner of the bar or at the sportsbook in utter agony. Well, in normal non-COVID times, anyway. He was just buying strangers shots, whooping it up...then the bottom drops out. He likely bet a sizeable amount on a 1 o'clock game, already checked his game off as a win and has called the guy or hit the window or app to bet on the late-afternoon window of games a little more fervently than normal. Then, he checks the score. It goes downhill in a hurry.

I'll be honest. I played the Chicago Bears +3 Sunday on the road against the Detroit Lions solely on the fact WR Kenny Golladay was sidelined, and I figured the boys in silver and Honolulu blue would have a more ground-based attack. And it's never good to try and run into the teeth of the Bears defense, their strongest unit. Well, Detroit was running at will. RB Adrian Peterson, who was signed less than a week ago after being released from the Washington Football Team. He gobbled up 93 yards, or 6.6 yards per carry, and the Lions ran for 138 yards, a touchdown and 4.8 yards per tote. Anyway, through 45 minutes, the Lions led 23-6 and I was the opposite of that guy at the bar. At about 3:20 p.m. ET, I wrote this one off as my being on the wrong side, and was ready to move along. Then, QB Mitchell Trubisky did something he rarely ever does. He was effective in the fourth quarter, tossing three touchdowns to help the visitors outscore the Lions 21-0 in the final quarter, including 14 points in the final 2:58. Final score, Chicago 27-23. I'll take it.

Total Recall

Week 1 was difficult to figure heading into action, as the normal pomp and circumstance of opening day across the National Football League was a bit muted during this COVID era. We saw a smattering of fans allowed to attend the Thursday Night Football game between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs. In the Sunday slate of games, only the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed fans in for their home game against the Indianapolis Colts. The normal places where fans make a huge difference with their noise did not affect sides or totals. But overall the action was good, and we had some pretty decent football, all things considered. Remember, there were no preseason games, so this was the first game action for a lot of these teams since last winter.

The lowest total on the board, and the only one in the 30's, was the AFC East tussle between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. If you were an over bettor, you liked the fast start, as the Bills tossed up a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes, and it was 21-3 at halftime. We had a single-digit number on the board in the third quarter, and the fourth quarter probably should have, too. However, the Jets scored a 2-yard rushing touchdown with just :54 left in regulation to flip the total from under to over. Ouch.

The highest total for Sunday's slate of games was the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49.5) game, which saw a total of 63 points. There were just 26 points on the board at halftime, and the total really could have gone either way. The total was stuck at 49 from 9:35 of the fourth quarter to 3:45 when Seahawks RB Carlos Hyde saved the day with a 1-yard touchdown plunge. Falcons WR Calvin Ridley dealt a crushing blow to under teaser bettors with a 7-yard scoring reception with just :33 remaining.

The Thursday night game barely inched 'over', and depending on when the wager was placed, the 'under' hit. We'll call it an over because it closed at 53.5. The Sunday Night game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Rams at the pristine SoFi Stadium near LAX was a defensive battle with just 37 total points and a 51-point total on the board. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants in the early MNF battle, and the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos in the late-night MNF affair, each went under. During the early going, the 'over' is just 1-3 (25.0%) in four primetime games.

In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during the primetime schedule, a stark change from the previous six-year span. The over was ahead of the under in five of the six seasons from 2013-18, including an amazing 66.0% (33-17) clip in 2014.

Looking Ahead to Week 2

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bengals lost a heartbreaker at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, 16-13, easily hitting the 'under'. Rookie QB Joe Burrow was driving them for a potential winning touchdown drive. They faltered, and had to settle for a field goal to force overtime, but PK Randy Bullock appeared to pull up lame on the attempt and he shanked the kick, leaving the Bengals still in search of their first win since the 2018 season.

The Browns were trampled 38-6 by the Baltimore Ravens on the road. Cleveland's lack of offense also helped the under connect in their game. While the under is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings between these rivals in Cleveland, the over is 4-0-1 in the previous five games overall in the series.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Panthers hit the over in 11 of their 16 games in 2019, while the Buccaneers led the NFL with 12 over results in 16 regular-season games. Those two teams hook up in 'Tompa Bay' next week, and both teams will be ornery. The Panthers fell 34-30 on their home field to the Las Vegas Raiders, as new head coach Matt Rhule went for it on fourth and inches late in the game, utilizing his fullback rather than RB Christian McCaffrey. The latter became just the third player in NFL history to run for at least 1,000 yards and post 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. Instead, Rhule chose to gain the tough yards with FB Alex Armah, who entered the game with 15 career carries and 26 yards in his first 41 NFL games. Yeah, the fans in Charlotte are wishing Riverboat Ron Rivera was back.

The Bucs, meanwhile, were manhandled by the New Orleans Saints 34-23. They didn't grab the cover, but the Bucs hit the over. Better times will be ahead. The Panthers have hit the number in six of their past seven in the shadows of the Pirate Ship at the Ray Jay, with the road team going 9-3 ATS in the past 12 overall in this series. The under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Bills were tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers with 12 under results in 16 regular-season games, leading the NFL in 2019. So that's what made their Week 1 over result against the New York Jets all the more surprising. The Dolphins hit the under, and they failed to cover. But at least they weren't boatraced like last season in Week 1, when Baltimore came to town and crowned them 59-10.

Anyway, the over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this AFC East rivalry, with the favorite going 5-1 ATS in the previous six installments.

New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

This is actually a highly-anticipated Monday night game, a rarity in the series lately. New Orleans won their game, and Las Vegas won its road contest as well. While there will be no fans in attendance at the palacial Allegiant Stadium off of Interstate 15 in Las Vegas, the Raiders will make their Nevada debut. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on Monday Night Football, with the over going 5-2 in those games. Conversely, the Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six MNF showings, and the under is a perfect 4-0 in their past four appearances on MNF.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not Report - Week 2
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 2 Betting Angles

Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season is officially in the books now, and there were some interesting results across the board.

History suggests there are some loose conclusions we can come to going forward into this week and the NFL futures market based on Week 1's results, and I'll get to that in a minute.

It was nice to see that last week's “Hot” trend continued to stay that way, as that 18-4-1 SU run by playoff vs non-playoff teams coming into this year ending up going 5-2 SU again this year with the late Monday game still pending.

But it's all about staying ahead of the game in this industry and as Week 2 always gets hyped up for being “overreaction” week, in that good or bad starts for any particular team shouldn't be too concerning long term, historically there isn't a whole lot of truth to that at least in terms of teams that did lose in Week 1.

Who's Hot

Backing Week 2 underdogs against a favorite that lost SU in Week 1 is 14-7 ATS the past three seasons, including 5-1 ATS a season ago.

You'll hear time and time again this week that one poor showing in Week 1 doesn't mean the sky is falling on that specific organization, and in a general sense that is true.

There is still 15 games in the year to make up for that one defeat, but if those teams are a 'chalk' in Week 2, I wouldn't want to be laying any wood with them.

Week 2 underdogs that are playing against a favored 0-1 SU team went 5-1 ATS a season ago, and has not posted a losing record in any of the three most recent seasons.

It was 5-1 ATS in 2019 with Tampa, Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, and Denver all covering their underdog lines and three of those five won the game outright. The lone outlier? Cleveland's 23-3 win as road chalk against the New York Jets last year.

Furthermore, within that 14-7 ATS run for these Week 2 underdogs vs an 0-1 SU team, not one of those years has posted a losing record. It went 5-1 ATS last year, 4-4 ATS in 2018, and 5-2 ATS in 2017. Not a bad blind system to at least begin your handicapping with this week.

So who does it apply to in Week 2?

Bengals
Rams
Jets
Vikings
Falcons
Panthers
Broncos
Jaguars

It starts with the Cincinnati Bengals catching +6 in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football after the Browns got beat down in Baltimore on Sunday.

From there, at least based on current lines from Draft Kings, it would suggest plays on the LA Rams (+1) vs Philadelphia, the NY Jets (+7) vs San Francisco, Minnesota (+3) vs Indianapolis, Atlanta (+5) vs Dallas, Carolina (+9) vs Tampa Bay, and potentially Denver (+6.5) vs Pittsburgh and Jacksonville (+10.5) vs Tennessee should the Steelers and Titans lose on MNF.

That's quite the card build already for those that would prefer to follow. Three years is far from a great sample size though, as it never hurts to simply use these things as support for your own weekly methods.


Who's Not

Since realignment in 2002, only 8 teams (of 36) have gone on to make the Super Bowl that year after starting out 0-1 SU

For much of the lead-up into the year we heard a lot about Tampa Bay and Dallas getting so much love for Super Bowl futures, if this history is any indication, those tickets may want to start to be ripped up.

Look, there is a lot of football left, and of those 8 teams to make a Super Bowl after starting the year 0-1 SU, four of them did end up hosting the Lombardi Trophy. Problem with that is they were only two specific franchises – New England (2003, 2014) and the New York Giants (2007 and 2011).

With quarterback Tom Brady in Tampa Bay this season, all those Bucs futures may have a bit more hope then futures on other 0-1 SU teams – including my own on the Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC – but it's still a severe uphill battle against history in that regard.

The funny thing about those four seasons with the Patriots and Giants winning those Super Bowls after starting out 0-1 SU is that all four of those Super Bowls had some wild finishes to them.

New England's two victories in those years came thanks to a tie-breaking FG with 4 seconds left over Carolina, and them picking off Seattle's 1-yard pass in that 2014 shocker. The Giants two wins came over New England and I probably don't need to get into those finishes with the wild catches David Tyree and Mario Manningham made late in those contests.

Needless to say, had we had those four games finished just slightly differently, this trend would be sitting at 100% in that no 0-1 SU team has won the Super Bowl that year.

So how is this actionable?

You can look at the flip side of this and say that 28 of the last 36 teams to be involved in the Super Bowl did so after starting that season 1-0 SU. I'm not going to list all the teams that won this week, but if you are a big believer in history, and like to get down on some futures tickets – to win conference or Super Bowl – you probably want to limit your choices to those 16 squads.

The odds on those teams probably took a slight hit (as of now) after starting out with a win, but this is something to keep in mind long down the road. Futures price shopping every week can be done if you keep that list of the 16 teams that started the year 1-0 SU handy.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Thursday, September 17

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Game 101-102
September 17, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
124.894
Cleveland
123.058
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 6
43
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+6); Over


Sunday, September 20

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Game 279-280
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
127.428
Tennessee
140.474
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 13
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 8 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-8 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Green Bay

Game 275-276
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
124.472
Green Bay
135.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 11 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 6
49
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-6); Under

LA Rams @ Philadelphia

Game 261-262
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
129.099
Philadelphia
131.974
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+1 1/2); Over

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 263-264
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
117.969
Tampa Bay
132.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 14 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 9
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-9); Over

NY Giants @ Chicago

Game 277-278
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
127.935
Chicago
125.243
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 2 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+5 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Indianapolis

Game 273-274
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.236
Indianapolis
124.957
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+3); Over

Atlanta @ Dallas

Game 267-268
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
127.155
Dallas
138.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-4 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ NY Jets

Game 269-270
September 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
137.701
NY Jets
128.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 9
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-6); Under

Washington @ Arizona

Game 281-282
September 20, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
128.947
Arizona
130.072
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7); Over

Baltimore @ Houston

Game 283-284
September 20, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
139.888
Houston
136.032
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 4
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+7 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ LA Chargers

Game 285-286
September 20, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
147.055
LA Chargers
126.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 20 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 8 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-8 1/2); Under

New England @ Seattle

Game 287-288
September 20, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
135.503
Seattle
136.575
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(+4); Under


Monday, September 21

New Orleans @ Las Vegas

Game 289-290
September 21, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
133.470
Las Vegas
130.218
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 6 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
(+6 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Thursday
Bengals (0-1) @ Cleveland (0-1)
— Last three years, Cincy is 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bengals averaged only 4.4 yards/pass LW; they were outgunned by 67 yards.
— Cincy’s only TD drive LW was 44 yards; they’ve got a new kicker this week, a guy who got cut by the Browns Monday.
— Bengals covered five of last six road openers; over is 10-2 in their last 12.

— Browns were -3 in turnovers LW, had a 21-yard deficit in average field position in their 38-6 loss in Baltimore.
— Last four years, Cleveland is 4-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Browns are 4-2 ATS in last six home series openers- they’re 3-18-1 SU in home series openers.

— Cleveland won three of last four series games, after losing previous seven.
— Bengals lost last two visits here, 26-18/27-19.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Thursday
Bengals (0-1) @ Cleveland (0-1)
— Last three years, Cincy is 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bengals averaged only 4.4 yards/pass LW; they were outgunned by 67 yards.
— Cincy’s only TD drive LW was 44 yards; they’ve got a new kicker this week, a guy who got cut by the Browns Monday.
— Bengals covered five of last six road openers; over is 10-2 in their last 12.

— Browns were -3 in turnovers LW, had a 21-yard deficit in average field position in their 38-6 loss in Baltimore.
— Last four years, Cleveland is 4-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Browns are 4-2 ATS in last six home series openers- they’re 3-18-1 SU in home series openers.

— Cleveland won three of last four series games, after losing previous seven.
— Bengals lost last two visits here, 26-18/27-19.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the US Open golf tourney this week:

8-1— Dustin Johnson

9-1— Jon Rahm

14-1— McIlroy, Schauffele, Thomas

16-1— Collin Morikawa

25-1— Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson

30-1— Matsuyama, Fleetwood, Day, Reed, Finau


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 195,354
Please wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“It begins and ends with the general manager. You can talk to me all day long. I personally wouldn’t know what coach to hire. That’s why you have a basketball operations team that’s made of a half a dozen people that use all kinds of analytics and experience. They’ll make a recommendation to me. They do about everything. I’m the sign-off guy. That’s it.

“I wouldn’t know how to interview a basketball coach. You want me to go interview a CEO for a company, I’m the first one to tell you I think [I’m] better than anybody else. To be successful in business, and I say this in my book, you better know what you know and you better know what you don’t know. I surely know what I don’t know when it comes to basketball.”
Houston Rockets’ owner Tilman Fertitta

Wednesday’s quiz
Who coached the Steelers before Mike Tomlin?

Tuesday’s quiz
Joe Girardi has managed the Marlins, Bronx, Philadelphia.

Monday’s quiz
Rams’ owner Stan Kroenke also owns the NBA’s Denver Nuggets and the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche.


************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……

13) ESPN finally found its Monday Night Football crew; Steve Levy, Brian Greise, Louis Riddick are an excellent 3-man team. Smart, unassuming, easy to listen to.

12) Baseball announced its playoff plan; AL bubble in California, NL bubble in Texas, no days off in the division or league championship series, which is a big deal. Pitching depth is going to be a lot more important than usual. Aces will only pitch once in a best-of-5 series, unless they pitch a game on short rest.

Air quality in southern California could be become a problem; I’m assuming the backup plan is Arizona’s dome, but that wasn’t mentioned Monday.

World Series will be in the Rangers’ new domed stadium in Arlington.

11) Nuggets 104, Clippers 89 (Denver wins 4-3)
— Denver held LA to 33 points in 2nd half.
— Nuggets were down 3-1 in both series this year, but won both.
— Jokic had 16 points, 22 rebounds, 13 assists. Wow.
— In their 50-year history, Clippers are now 0-8 in games where they had a chance to reach the conference final.

10) Cincinnati Bengals’ kicker Randy Bullock missed a game-tying 31-yard field goal at the end of Sunday’s 16-13 loss to the Chargers; Bullock then grabbed his leg— a calf strain was given as the reason. Bengals need a new kicker.

Problem is, Cincinnati plays on Thursday this week and if you bring someone into Ohio from another state, there is a 72-hour thing because of COVID, so the Bengals quickly scooped up kicker Austin Seibert, who was shown the door by the Browns after he missed a PAT and a field goal in Cleveland’s 38-6 loss in Baltimore Sunday.

Seibert will see his old friends Thursday, when the Bengals visit Cleveland.

9) Unusual fact: Five QB’s whose team won in Week 1 were led in rushing by their QB. More and more teams are going to running back-by-committee.

I cringe every time a quarterback takes a hit while running; they’re very valuable players, so there is a fine line between a running QB making his offense more explosive while also risking the whole thing blowing up, if that QB gets hurt.

8) NFL officials called two huge offensive pass interference penalties Sunday, but they only called offensive holding 18 times in 16 games last week, so that’s an improvement. Thats the 2nd-fewest amount of Week 1 holding calls since 2001.

7) Why some teams don’t want their head coach also being a coordinator:

Denver Broncos totally screwed up clock management in the last minute Monday night; once Tennessee got within field goal range, Denver had to use its timeouts, to preserve some time for their offense if the Titans took the lead, which they did.

Head coach Vic Fangio also coordinates Denver’s defense, and that was what he was thinking about while Tennessee was driving at the end. Game management was botched, depriving the Broncos of a last-gasp chance at a win- remember, the game was in Denver, so longer field goals are more possible.

6) Orlando’s NBA bubble on the Disney grounds will also host eight early season college basketball tournament:

— Champions Classic, Jimmy V Classic
— Wooden Legacy, preseason NIT
— Orlando Invitational, Charleston Classic
— Myrtle Beach invitational, Diamond Head Classic

5) Over the last 10 years, when NFL teams went for it on 4th and 1, they got the first down 64% of the time.

4) Tennessee Titans missed three field goals and an extra point Monday night; last year, they made only 44.4% of their FG’s, by far the worst %age in the NFL. 2nd-worst %age last year was the Jets, who made 67.9% of their field goals.

3) My preference for the NFL schedule would be Monday night doubleheaders every week but no Thursday games, except for Week 1 and Thanksgiving Day. Football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest.

2) Michael O’Keefe, the actor who played Danny Noonan in Caddyshack 40 years ago, caddied for club pro Danny Balin this week at practice rounds for the US Open.

1) If you baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Philadelphia, San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

2020 NFL

Week 2 NFL

Bengals (0-1) @ Cleveland (0-1)
— Last three years, Cincy is 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bengals averaged only 4.4 yards/pass LW; they were outgunned by 67 yards.
— Cincy’s only TD drive LW was 44 yards; they’ve got a new kicker this week, a guy who got cut by the Browns Monday.
— Bengals covered five of last six road openers; over is 10-2 in their last 12.

— Browns were -3 in turnovers LW, had a 21-yard deficit in average field position in their 38-6 loss in Baltimore.
— Last four years, Cleveland is 4-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Browns are 4-2 ATS in last six home series openers- they’re 3-18-1 SU in home series openers.

— Cleveland won three of last four series games, after losing previous seven.
— Bengals lost last two visits here, 26-18/27-19.

Rams (1-0) @ Philadelphia (0-1)
— LA averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt LW, converted 9-17 on 3rd down.
— Last three years, Rams are 15-9 ATS on the road.
— Under McVay, LA is 3-0 in road openers, scoring 34.7 ppg.

— Eagles blew a 17-0 lead in LW’s loss at Washington; Redskins started 6 of their 14 drives in Eagle territory.
— Last two years, Philly is 5-11 ATS at home.
— Eagles won last four home openers, but are 3-8 ATS in last 11.

— Philly won last six series games, with average total in last three, 64.3
— Rams lost last three visits here; their last win in Philly was in 2001.

Panthers (0-1) @ Tampa Bay (0-1)
— Carolina scored 30 points LW, despite having only one play of 20+ yards.
— Last two years, Panthers are 5-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Carolina won/covered four of last six road openers; three of last four went over.

— Bucs were -3 in turnovers LW; Saints had a 24-yard edge in field positions nd that doesn’t count the pick-6 they got.
— Since 2014, Tampa Bay is 4-15-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Buccaneers lost five of their last seven home openers.

— Carolina is 10-4 in last 14 series games, winning five of last seven visits here.

Broncos (0-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
— Long trip east on short week for Denver, after last-second home loss Monday.
— Broncos converted only 3-12 third down plays; Titans were 7-16 on 3rd down.
— Last four years, Denver is 8-11 ATS as a road underdog.
— Broncos lost their last three road openers, by 10-13-8 points (0-3 ATS).

— Short week for Steelers, who held Giants to 29 yards rushing Monday.
— Last three years, Pittsburgh is 9-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Steelers lost last two home openers, 42-37/28-26.

— Home side won last five series games; Broncos split their last four visits here.

Falcons (0-1) @ Dallas (0-1)
— Atlanta gained 506 yards LW, threw for 434, but were -2 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Atlanta is 5-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Falcons are 3-10 ATS in last thirteen road openers.

— Dallas was 3-12 on 3rd down LW; they scored 17 points in 4 trips to red zone.
— Last four years, Dallas is 13-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Cowboys won seven of last nine home openers (3-0-1 ATS last four)

— Falcons won three of last four series games, winning two of last three visits here.

49ers (0-1) @ NJ Jets (0-1)
— 49ers scored only 10 points in four trips to red zone LW; they were 2-11 on 3rd down.
— SF has injury issues at WR, DB.
— Last five years, 49ers are 3-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— 49ers lost five of last seven road openers; they’re 9-5 ATS in last 14.

— Jets were outgained 404-254 LW; Buffalo had a 19-yard edge in field position.
— Last three years, Jets are 10-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Five of their last seven home openers stayed under.

— Teams split last four meetings; overall, 49ers lead series 10-3, winning last visit here 34-8 in 2016.

Bills (1-0) @ Miami (0-1)
— Buffalo converted 7-14 on 3rd down, had 31 first downs in LW’s win.
— Under McDermott, Buffalo is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Buffalo lost 10 of last 15 road openers (4-2 ATS in last six).

— Miami allowed 217 rushing yards LW; they threw 3 INT’s (-2 TO’s)
— Last four years, Miami is 11-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Dolphins won seven of their last ten home openers.
— Over is 14-3 in their last 17 home openers.

— Bills won five of last six series games; they split last four visits to Miami.

Vikings (0-1) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
— In their history, Vikings are 0-11 in road games against the Colts.
— Colts won last five series games, three of them by 3 points.

— Minnesota gave up 522 yards LW, allowing five TD’s on nine drives.
— Vikings are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Minnesota is 4-11-1 SU in last 16 road openers (5-9-2 ATS).

— Colts outgained Jax 445-241 but scored only 17 points in five trips to red zone.
— Last three years, Indy is 9-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Colts lost five of their last six home openers (1-5 ATS as a favorite)

NJ Giants (0-1) @ Chicago (1-0)
— Short week for Giants, who ran ball 20 times for 29 yards Monday.
— Big Blue covered 14 of its last 20 games as a road underdog.
— Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in last ten road openers.

— Bears won LW after trailing 23-6; all three of their TD drives were less than 60 yards.
— Last two years, Chicago is 8-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bears lost five of last six home openers (under 4-1-1).

— Bears (-6) beat Giants 19-14 LY, just their 2nd win in last six series games.
— Giants lost last two visits to Chicago; their last win here was in ’07.

Lions (0-1) @ Green Bay (1-0)
— Detroit had seven plays of 20+ yards LW. 2nd-most in league.
— Lions lost though, blowing a 23-6 lead at home.
— Lions are 16-22 ATS in last 38 games as a road underdog.
— Detroit covered three of its last four road openers.

— Packers gained 522 yards, scored five TD’s on nine drives LW.
— Green Bay is 25-15-2 ATS in last 42 games as a home favorite.
— Packers won seven in row, 12 of last 13 home openers (10-3 ATS).

— Packers beat Detroit twice LY, by total of four points, after Lions had won previous four meetings.
— Lions won three of last five visits to Lambeau Field.

Jaguars (1-0) @ Tennessee (1-0)
— J’ville completed 19-20 passes, converted 5-10 on 3rd down in LW’s win.
— Last two years, Jaguars are 4-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— J’ville won two of last three road openers (3-0 ATS) , after losing previous nine.

— Titans survived their kicking woes in Monday’s last-second win in Denver.
— Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 3-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Titans lost five of their last six home openers.

— Titans won seven of last nine series games.
— Jaguars lost their last six visits to Nashville, with three of last four losses here by 19+ points.

Washington (1-0) @ Arizona (1-0)
— Redskins gained only 239 yards, but were +3 in turnovers in LW’s upset win.
— Last four years, Washington is 15-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Washington covered its last four road openers.

— Arizona ran ball for 180 yards, converted 7-14 on 3rd down in LW’s win.
— Last five years, Cardinals are 7-14 ATS as a home favorite.
— Arizona is 0-3-1 SU in last four home openers (1-3 ATS).

— Washington won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Washington split its last six visits to the desert.

Chiefs (1-0) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
— Reid’s SU record after a bye or Thursday game: 17-2.
— Chiefs ran for 166 yards, scored 4 TD’s on 9 drives in LW’s win.
— Last four years, KC is 15-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Kansas City covered six of its last seven road openers.

— Chargers’ first-ever home game in SoFi Stadium.
— LA was +2 in turnovers LW, survived when Bengals missed 31-yard FG at end of their 16-13 win.
— Last six years, Chargers are 3-8 ATS as a home underdog.
— Bolts are 0-3 ATS in last three home openers.

— Chiefs won 11 of last 12 series games.
— KC won its last six series road games, with four of last five wins here by 10+.

Ravens (1-0) @ Texans (0-1)
— Baltimore had 23-yard edge in field position LW; they led 24-6 at half.
— Ravens had 3 takeaways, scored 5 TD’s on 10 drives vs Cleveland.
— LY, Ravens were 5-0-1 ATS as a road favorite, after going 6-11-1 from ’13-’18.
— Baltimore is 8-4 ATS in last dozen road openers.

— Texans started 7 of 8 drives at their 25 or worse field position LW.
— How does passing game stack up after trading star WR Hopkins?
— Since 2013, Houston is 5-10 ATS as a home underdog.
— Houston covered twice in its last seven home openers.

— Ravens won nine of 11 series games; they beat Houston 41-7 at home LY, but they did lose their last two visits here.
— Baltimore ran ball for 256 yards in LY’s game.

Patriots (1-0) @ Seahawks (1-0)
— Rematch of Super Bowl when Seattle had ball on 1-yard line at the end, but had a pass picked off in end zone.
— Patriots fired Pete Carroll as coach (27-21 in three years), so they could hire Belichick.

— NE ran ball for 217 yards LW; Newton adds a run threat.
— Last ten years, Patriots are 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— New England won seven of its last nine road openers.

— Seahawks won their last 11 home openers (8-3 ATS).
— Seattle completed 31-35 passes, scored 5 TD’s on 10 drives in Atlanta.
— Last three years, Seahawks are 6-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 16-2-1 in Seattle’s last 19 home openers.

Saints (1-0) @ Las Vegas (1-0)
— New Orleans was +3 in turnovers, scored a defensive TD in LW’s win.
— Last four years, Saints are 12-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— New Orleans lost seven of last nine road openers.

— First-ever home game in Las Vegas for the Raiders.
— Raiders converted 6-11 on 3rd down, scored 34 points in LW’s win at Carolina.
— Last four years, Las Vegas is 6-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Raiders are 5-13 ATS in last 18 home openers.

— New Orleans won three of last four series games; they won their last three trips to Oakland.

[Udog]

Bengals vs. Browns Week 2 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Week 2 of the NFL season gets going with a divisional battle in the AFC North between the Bengals and Browns. Both teams are looking for substantial improvements this year after going through tough 2019 campaigns, and both sides can't feel too good about how they opened up the 2020 season.

In Cleveland's case, the Browns continue to be the way better in their own minds then they are on the football field, as they got blasted by Baltimore 38-6. The Browns didn't score a single point in the final three quarters of that football game, as Cleveland did what Cleveland always does; continues to shoot themselves in the foot.

Fumbles lost, thrown picks, and a missed field goal all made an appearance in the calamity of errors the Browns dealt with on Sunday, and if this team ever wants the world to see just how good they believe they are in their own heads, crap like that has to get cleaned up in a hurry.

Cincinnati wasn't without their own miscues in their 16-13 loss to the Chargers, a game in all likelihood they should have won. Kicker Randy Bullock missed a chip shot FG to tie at the end of the game as he blew out something in his leg on the approach, and that was after the Bengals thought they had a game-winning TD already.

But wide receiver AJ Green's catch in the front corner of the end zone was called back for being a push-off, as #1 overall pick quarterback Joe Burrow got his first, first-hand experience as to why this team is un-affectionately known as the Bungals.

Betting Resources

Week 2 Matchup: Divisional - AFC North
Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Location: Cleveland, OH
Date: Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Burrow did have plenty of good moments in that first career start though, and at least after one week it does look like his future should be bright in this league.

But it's still only one week though, and now Burrow is in that dreaded spot all rookie QB's must endure – their first road start in the NFL.

There will be some fans in the “Dog Pound” for this Cleveland home game, but I would also venture a guess that the usual notion of basically auto-fading rookie QB's in their first road start probably isn't nearly as strong this season with empty stadiums.

Line Movements

Spread: Cleveland -6
Money-Line: Cleveland -260, Cincinnati +220
Total: 43.5

Cincinnati rookie QB Joe Burrow will get his first taste of AFC North action when the Bengals meet the Browns. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Cincinnati

Overall: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U

Cleveland

Overall: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U

Handicapping the Total

Thursday Night Football games off a short week are always going to get plenty of noise about backing 'unders' with the idea behind it being the quality of play will be suspect with such little prep and recovery time. For the most part in recent years, looking low on totals for Thursday games tends to be a good place to start, and after these two teams combined to score just 19 total points in their respective Week 1 contests, we've already seen plenty of 'under' support for this game.

The total opened up as high as 46 in some spots, before instantly getting bet low and reaching it's current price of 43.5 basically by Monday afternoon. That's definitely a drop to be aware of.

But in this particular case, I'm not sure I fully agree with it. Yes, going against the majority consensus for this game specifically and TNF in general on the 'under' can be troubling, but when I envision these two teams squaring off, I see a game with two young QB's not being gun shy in the slightest, probably with a costly turnover or two thrown in for both sides. Both offenses understand that they've got to be much better in executing on offense, and neither the Bengals nor Browns defenses are likely to provide a tremendous amount of resistance.

Cleveland may have gotten smoked in Baltimore last week, but they did finish the game with 20 made 1st downs (to Baltimore's 23), and had 31 more rushing yards than Baltimore. You know that Ravens team that's got a spectacular rusher under center and had a game script to where running the ball late to drain the clock was readily available to them.

Moving the ball wasn't the issue for Cleveland there, it was protecting the football, penalty issues and making the most of their opportunities that ultimately made that box score look much worse than it probably should have. The Chargers rushed for 155 yards on 39 attempts against the Bengals last week, so there is plenty of yardage to be gained on the ground for Cleveland. If Baker Mayfield can mix that up with some timely connections in the passing game, moving the ball up and down the field against Cincinnati shouldn't be a huge problem. The Chargers were horrible themselves in converting red zone opportunities into TD's last week vs Cincy, but they did have three chances to do so.

At the same time, Burrow and the Bengals attack showed flashes of brilliance during a few drives only to have them stall in the worst ways. There was a shovel pass INT that Burrow threw in the red zone in the 2nd half of the game, and the ending has already been talked about. Baltimore gashed Cleveland's secondary with a strong passing attack – Lamar Jackson went 20-for-25 for 275 yards and 3 TD's – so there should be that blueprint available to the Burrow and the Bengals offense to find success here.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 29, 2019 - Cincinnati 33 vs. Cleveland 23, Bengals +2.5, Over 44
Dec. 8, 2019 - Cleveland 27 vs. Cincinnati 19, Browns -6.5, Over 43.5
Dec. 23, 2018 - Cleveland 26 vs. Cincinnati 18, Browns -10, Push 44
Nov. 25, 2018 - Cleveland 35 at Cincinnati 20, Pick 'em, Over 46

Finally, we can't forget about these two franchises being perpetual basement dwellers in this division the past few years and the fact that when they do meet up to play one another in what both sides have to view as highly “winnable” games, we've often seen points.

The last five meetings between these two have gone 4-0-1 O/U in recent years, with the last three games all having closing totals in a very similar range (44, 43, 44). There is no doubt in my mind that oddsmakers had this recent run of Bengals/Browns game in mind when they opened the number in the 45.5/46 range, but the knee jerk/hot take reaction on a week-to-week basis that is otherwise known as the NFL betting market each year made sure their voice was heard early in dropping this line to where it currently sits.

Therefore, it's only the high side of this number I can look at now, as both QB's know they've got something to prove right now, and I expect both to embrace a duel if it does indeed turn out that way.

Handicapping the Side

The side is something that is easier to pass on this week, if for nothing else than the notion that it's easy to figure these QB's/teams will make a costly mistake at some point, but pinpointing on who or which team it will be makes it a quite passable option.

If forced to choose a side, I would be grabbing the points with the Bengals, as Burrow doesn't have all the baggage that Bengals teams in the past have had, nor anywhere near the baggage that Baker Mayfield and this current Browns core currently have.

Not to mention that Cincinnati does fit into this scenario I brought up earlier this week where they are catching points against an 0-1 SU favorite. I'm not entirely sure the Browns should be laying nearly a TD against anyone in 2020 – at least until they prove they can come anywhere close to all that smoke they blew up the world's ass last summer during their hype tour.

However, it's still that dreaded “rookie QB in first road start” that I can't be thrilled about bucking if I were to have a Bengals ATS ticket in my pocket, so the side is an all-around pass, at least before kick-off. There could easily be in-game betting scenarios that pop up where much better numbers arise on both sides.

Key Injuries

Cincinnati

CB LeShaun Sims: Personal - Questionable
C Billy Price: Ankle - Questionable
DE Sam Hubbard: Knee - Questionable
K Randy Bullock: Calf - Questionable
S Shawn Williams: Calf - Out
G Xavier Su'a-Filo: Ankle - Out
DT Mike Daniels: Groin - Out
DT Geno Atkins: Shoulder - Out

Cleveland

OT Jack Conklin: Ankle/Finger - Questionable
OT Chris Hubbard: Ankle - Questionable
CB Kevin Johnson: Liver - Out
C JC Tretter: Knee - Questionable
LB Jacob Phillips: Knee - Out
DE Olivier Vernon: Abdomen - Questionable
CB Greedy Williams: Shoulder - Out
CB Shoulder - Out
OT Jedrick Wills Jr.: Shin - Questionable
LB Mack Wilson: Knee - Out
WR Jarvis Landry: Hip - Questionable