The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

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NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 24

Miami @ Jacksonville
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Miami
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


Sunday, September 27

Tennessee @ Minnesota
Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee

Las Vegas @ New England
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 8 games
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home

Chicago @ Atlanta
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Chicago

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

San Francisco @ NY Giants
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco

Houston @ Pittsburgh
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games

Washington @ Cleveland
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

LA Rams @ Buffalo
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
LA Rams is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Carolina @ LA Chargers
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Carolina

NY Jets @ Indianapolis
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing NY Jets

Detroit @ Arizona
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Detroit's last 16 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
Arizona is 8-1-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit

Dallas @ Seattle
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

Tampa Bay @ Denver
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games
Denver
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Green Bay @ New Orleans
Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay


Monday, September 28

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NFL betting tips for Week 3: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Buffalo Bills' invigorated passing game is currently the top-ranked aerial attack in the NFL. Their Week 3 total against the Rams is at 46.5 — but it could keep climbing as the week goes on.

Week 3 is a dangerous week for NFL betting. You have just enough information to lure you into a false sense of security.

This year, the NFL Week 3 odds are even slipperier to wrangle thanks to no preseason to measure against as well as league-wide injuries befalling many teams and their key contributors this past Sunday. But in the face of all this, the ultimate NFL betting strategy remains: get the best number for your NFL picks.

We give the top NFL betting tips with our Week 3 lines to bet now and bet later.

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5): Bet now

The Chargers opened -6 against the Panthers, coming off a tough overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 2. The Bolts played extremely well, considering rookie quarterback Justin Herbert was thrust into action due to Tyrod Taylor suffering pregame chest pains.

Los Angeles’ defense was excellent, holding the Chiefs to 23 points and forcing three long field goals from an offense that usually has zero trouble finding the end zone. Offensively, the Chargers had a great balance between run and pass and now take on a poor Panthers defense.

Carolina is crossing the country after allowing 31 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, on the heels of 34 points from the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. And while the Panthers’ defense – or lack thereof – is enough to like L.A., the fact Carolina star RB Christian McCaffrey will miss time with an ankle injury is a cherry on top of the sundae for Chargers fans. Get the Bolts below the touchdown now.


Kansas City Chiefs (+3) vs Baltimore Ravens: Bet Later

Oh my gawd, this is going to awesome. The Chiefs and Ravens GET IT ON this coming Monday night and the early odds have the defending Super Bowl champs as field goal pups on the road in Week 3. While this spread hasn’t come off the key number, books are adjusting their juice on the Ravens -3 to -115 while discounting K.C. in an attempt to stir up some Chiefs action.

Kansas City barely escaped Week 2 with a win, needing some long-range field goal kicking to edge the Chargers in overtime. Now, Patrick Mahomes & Co. hit the road for a second straight game, this time taking on a Baltimore squad that looks scary good through two weeks.

If you’re not sold on the Chiefs here, I don’t blame you. The Ravens crushed Cleveland in Week 1 and broke Houston on its home turf, covering both spreads at -7 and -7.5 respectively. However, if you do like Kansas City, wait it out and see if the half-point hooks show its face. And when it does, get ready to pounce because it won’t be there long.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos (Under 43.5): Bet Now

As much as the media wants to pile the praise on Tom Brady for the Buccaneers’ Week 2 win over Carolina, it was the Tampa Bay running backs that did the damage. The Bucs blasted the Panthers defense for 122 yards and three scores on the ground.

Tampa Bay takes to the road in Week 3, traveling up the mountain to play the Denver Broncos. Denver will be without starting QB Drew Lock for the next few games, but it did see some life from backup Jeff Driskel against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I don’t buy into that continuing.

The Broncos are pretty beaten up on offense, with RB Phillip Lindsay out and WR Courtland Sutton ruled out for the season on Monday. Denver’s defense is a bit of a mess too, but it always seems to put up a fight at home, going 4-12 Over/Under in the team’s last 16 home games.

I expect another run-focused playbook from the Bucs, which should kill clock and keep scoring low. Tampa Bay’s dangerous defense will also feast on the broken Broncos. If you like the Under, you’ll want to move on this now before it starts dropping.


Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills (Under 46.5): Bet Later

This total is on the rise, opening as low as 45 points and jumping to 46.5 as of Monday morning. And why not? The top-ranked passing game in the NFL is on the field.

That’s right. The Bills’ offseason addition of WR Stefon Diggs has been just what Josh Allen needed to flex his cannon arm, with Buffalo averaging 29 points through the opening two games of 2020 – fueled by the throw.

The Rams dragged their feet on offense in the Week 1 opener versus Dallas but found their footing in a 37-19 win at Philadelphia on Sunday. But let’s not discount the defenses on either side of this matchup — or the circumstances facing L.A.

Buffalo and Los Angeles have a surplus of playmakers on defense as well as potent pass rushes that can disrupt even the most high-powered attack. On top of that, the Rams are racking up the frequent-flyer miles, having to fly to Philly for Week 2, then fly back to L.A., and then fly to Buffalo on Saturday, due to COVID restrictions. If you’re eyeing the Under, wait it out and see if this total keeps climbing.

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NFL Week 3 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

The 49ers are more of an orthopedics clinic than a football team this week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, among many others, is out, moving San Fran's spread from -6 to -4, and back to -4.5 Monday.

NFL Week 2 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes a flood of key injuries that will impact spreads and totals, particularly in the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants clash.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.

Week 2 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Star defensive end Nick Bosa tore an ACL and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s road win against the Jets. Bosa is done for the year, while Garoppolo might be able to play in Week 3 at the New York Giants. “Those guys are worth a couple of points,” said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook at Westgate.

Murray said The SuperBook had the Niners -6 against the Giants before those two injuries, among others. Running back Raheem Mostert (knee) was already ruled out for Week 3, and wideout Tevin Coleman has a knee sprain. Oh, and defensive end Solomon Thomas also has a season-ending ACL tear.

“They’re very banged up,” Murray said, noting The SuperBook opened the 49ers -4 and moved to -4.5 Monday.

New York Giants: Saquon Barkley also suffered a torn ACL Sunday in a road loss to the Bears, so he’s done for the year. “Barkley is worth a half-point to a point,” Murray said. The Giants are 4.5-point underdogs to the visiting 49ers. It’s also worth noting the 49ers-Giants total opened at just 41.5, quickly dropped to 40.5, then went to 41 Monday afternoon.

Denver Broncos: QB Drew Lock separated his right (throwing) shoulder in a loss at Pittsburgh, and he’ll miss two to six weeks, while star wideout Courtland Sutton is done for the year with a torn ACL. On the look-ahead line last week, The SuperBook had the Broncos 3.5-point Week 3 home ‘dogs to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The line opened Sunday night with Denver as 5.5-point pups and stretched to +6.5, then went to +6.

Carolina Panthers: Stud running back Christian McCaffrey was another Week 2 victim of a high ankle sprain and could miss several weeks. So he’s certainly not playing Sunday as the Panthers make the cross-country trip to face a Los Angeles Chargers team that just took the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime. Carolina is a 7-point underdog at The SuperBook.

Los Angeles Chargers: QB Tyrod Taylor was a late scratch Sunday against the Chiefs with complications from a rib injury. Coach Anthony Lynn said Monday that Taylor would start this week if he’s 100 percent, but complicating matters a bit is that rookie Justin Herbert played reasonably well in a 23-20 overtime loss to Super Bowl champion Kansas City. But with the Panthers minus McCaffrey, the Chargers are still 7-point favorites this week.


Week 2 Weather

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns: As of Monday, there’s a 50 percent chance of rain Sunday in Cleveland, with south/southwest winds of 10-20 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 44.5 and ticked down to 44 Monday.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is looking at a 50 percent chance of rain, as well. The total opened at 45 early Monday morning and over the next couple of hours went to 44.5, then back to 45.

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: The early forecast calls for morning rain in Philly, with intermittent showers in the afternoon Sunday. The total hasn’t moved off 46.5.

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills: As of Monday, there’s a 60 percent chance of afternoon thundershowers, with south/southwest winds at 15-25 mph. But the total in this game is already up to 48, after opening 46.5 at The SuperBook.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: The early forecast calls for occasional showers Sunday, with a 50 percent chance of rain. The total went from 41.5 to 40.5, then 41, but that likely has much more to do with both teams’ injuries, as noted above.

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Close Calls - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games.

Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.

Cleveland Browns (-5½) 35, Cincinnati Bengals 30 (44½)

A 24-point second quarter put the Thursday night game on a clear ‘over’ pace but the Browns were barely past the favorite spread with an eight-point edge at halftime.

Cincinnati seemed to a get huge swing of momentum stuffing the Browns on 4th-and-goal on the opening drive of the 2nd half but rookie QB Joe Burrow would fumble on a sack a few plays later, handing the Browns another red zone chance and this time Cleveland delivered.

Cincinnati would add a field goal to trail by 12 and the defense again delivered with an interception when it looked like Cleveland would add points. Burrow led a 14-play drive to put the Bengals within five with just under six minutes remaining. The underdog cover position was short-lived however as it took Cleveland just two minutes to answer, effectively putting the game away up by 12 at the 3:55 mark.

Burrow impressed on another long drive that included two 4th down conversions, eventually connecting for a touchdown inside the final minute on a 3rd-and-long play to take back the spread result for the underdog.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) 31, Carolina Panthers 17 (47)

The 0-2 Panthers are proving to have a lot of fourth quarter life losing in Week 1 in a back-and-forth final frame and also rallying vs. Tampa Bay after falling behind 21-0. Christian McCaffrey added two touchdowns before getting hurt to cut the score to 21-14 early in the fourth. The Panthers got the ball right back but Teddy Bridgewater had an interception across midfield.

Tampa Bay only added three points off the turnover however and Carolina cut the margin back to seven just after the two-minute warning with its own field goal, which was enough to sit within the underdog spread. The onside kick attempt failed and Leonard Fournette rushed for 46 yards and a score on 1st down, putting the Buccaneers up by 14 and clearing the closing total that opened as high as 48½ before sliding to 47.

Those laying the points with the Buccaneers didn’t have an easy viewing the rest of the way as Bridgewater had quick completions of 22 and 14 yards to cross midfield with still more than a minute to go. Carolina eventually reached the Tampa Bay 18 and the game’s final play didn’t quite get there with a 14-yard gain stopped around the 4-yard-line to keep the Panthers from stealing the cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6½) 26, Denver Broncos 21 (40½)

The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime and Denver was down to Jeff Driskel at quarterback. The Broncos added 11 points in the third quarter and to stay in the game but the Steelers had a strong start to the fourth, completing a touchdown drive and getting a safety to lead by 12 with about 10 minutes to go. Getting the ball back after the safety, Pittsburgh fumbled on first down however and the Broncos delivered with a Melvin Gordon touchdown about halfway through the final quarter.

Down by five, Denver’s defense held for a quick punt and Driskel appeared poised to deliver a game-winning drive for the Broncos, getting a big completion to the Pittsburgh 23-yard-line that withstood a replay challenge. Facing 4th-and-2 Driskel was sacked to thwart the upset and those on the favorite had a fleeting opportunity for a late cover with James Conner breaking a 59-yard rush to the Denver 10.

Denver only had two timeouts remaining and the Steelers were able to run out the clock, eventually taking a knee at the 6-yard-line.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) 40, Atlanta Falcons 39 (53½)

The fourth quarter didn’t change the spread or total results in this NFC clash but it is worth reminding everyone that the same team that recently lost the Super Bowl with a 28-3 lead was leading 39-24 with five minutes to go in a NFL game and lost.

Those taking Atlanta plus the points watched in horror after the incredible onside kick recovery as the prospect of a Dallas win and cover was back in play as Dallas had a healthy 1:49 to work with down two. After the big 2nd down gain the Cowboys played for the field goal and successfully pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in NFL history.

Buffalo Bills (-5½) 31, Miami Dolphins 28 (42)

Buffalo jumped out to a 17-7 lead but Miami took control in the middle of the game, delivering 13 consecutive points on three scoring drives, each of fewer than 50 yards, to take a 20-17 lead with about 10 minutes remaining.

Over two drives surrounding a punt Josh Allen needed only 12 combined plays for two touchdown drives of more than 70 yards as the Bulls were up by 11 with just three minutes remaining.

Miami didn’t even face a 3rd down against a relaxed defense and connected in the final minute to spoil the spread result, getting the two-point conversion for good measure in the three-point final result.

Chicago Bears (-5) 17, New York Giants 13 (42½)

After needing a big comeback in Week 1 the Bears took a 17-0 lead over the Giants at halftime. Even with significant injuries for New York, the Bears weren’t able to coast for a win as four second half drives ended in a pair of interceptions, a punt, and a missed field goal.

New York was down 17-10 before Mitchell Trubisky’s second interception set the Giants up in decent field position. With about 10 minutes remaining Chicago almost put the game away with a pick-6 but it was called back for pass interference. The Giants would stall at the Chicago 19 and kicked a field goal with still more than seven minutes remaining to trail by four.

Chicago had a chance to push the margin back to seven points to go back in position to cover but Cairo Santos missed the field goal try. New York had a great opportunity to steal the win, converting two fourth downs along the way but eventually ended the game on the 10-yard-line as the Bears moved to 2-0 with a second straight narrow escape.

Tennessee Titans (-7½) 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 30 (44½)

The Jaguars trailed 30-17 through three quarters but completed a 75-yard drive early in the fourth and forced a quick three-and-out. Jacksonville went 86 yards to tie the game halfway through the final frame with another big performance from Gardner Minshew.

A pair of punts followed, and getting the ball back in good field position with just over three minutes to go the Titans were able to add three points to go in front, aided greatly with a big 3rd down conversion via penalty.

Minshew was intercepted on a short pass on a 2nd-and-1 play in the final minute as the Titans held on but Jacksonville did enough for a second straight underdog win to start the season.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 35, New England Patriots 30 (45)

The Patriots opened the game with an early "Pick-6 Touchdown" but Russell Wilson rebounded nicely ultimately posting five touchdown passes even though the Seahawks only twice entered the red zone in the game.

Seattle pulled away in the third quarter with back-to-back scores around a Cam Newton interception to lead by 11 but the Patriots answered early in the fourth quarter.

Down five, New England went for two and came up short in a key play relative to the spread outcome. With just over four minutes remaining Seattle seemed to put the game away with a big 3rd down conversion and two plays later a touchdown to lead by 12.

The Patriots answered quickly however and were able to get the ball back after the Seahawks tried to throw deep on 3rd-and-1. The Patriots put together a great final drive but opted not to call their final timeout after a connection to the Seattle 13-yard-line, leaving only 12 seconds on the clock by the time they got the ball snapped.

After Julian Edelman couldn’t haul in a throw to the end zone, the Patriots reached the 1-yard-line on the next play and used the final timeout setting up the expected final play. Newton’s charge to the goal line was blown up as Seattle came away with the win and narrow cover in another entertaining edition between these teams and Hall of Fame coaches.

Las Vegas Raiders (+4) 34, New Orleans Saints 24 (48)

The line on the Monday night game shot downward Monday afternoon but the Saints opened up a 10-0 lead looking to move to 2-0 again considered by many a top NFC contender. Opening its new stadium in Las Vegas, the Raiders rallied for a tie score by halftime and took the lead early in the 3rd quarter.

The Saints punted on their first two possessions of the second half while the Raiders lost a fumble to keep the scoring at 41 well into the fourth quarter as the only drama that remained was on the total. The Saints would find the end zone with about four minutes remaining to trail by seven and the scoring hit 48, the closing total but with most sitting with tickets slightly above that with the number gradually sliding from an opening price of 50½.

A pass interference penalty converted a big 3rd down for the Raiders just ahead of the two-minute warning and the Raiders would face a decision up by seven with just over a minute to go on 4th-and-long. They opted for a risky 54-yard field goal attempt and Daniel Carlson delivered to seal the upset, as well as hitting ‘over’ too.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Thursday, September 24

Miami @ Jacksonville

Game 301-302
September 24, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.635
Jacksonville
130.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 2 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-2 1/2); Over


Sunday September 27

Washington @ Cleveland

Game 471-472
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
123.31
Cleveland
124.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7); Under

Las Vegas @ New England

Game 461-462
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
124.829
New England
139.182
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 14 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6); Over

Houston @ Pittsburgh

Game 465-466
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
131.460
Pittsburgh
130.610
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+4); Under

Tennessee @ Minnesota

Game 469-470
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
138.648
Minnesota
126.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 11 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Atlanta

Game 475-476
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.642
Atlanta
131.285
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
48
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+4); Under

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia

Game 473-474
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
118.375
Philadelphia
129.336
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 11
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ Buffalo

Game 463-464
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
131.708
Buffalo
137.786
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-2); Over

San Francisco @ NY Giants

Game 467-468
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
131.669
NY Giants
130.537
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 4
41
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+4); Under

NY Jets @ Indianapolis

Game 477-478
September 27, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
122.554
Indianapolis
135.372
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 13
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 10 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-10 1/2); Over

Carolina @ LA Chargers

Game 479-480
September 27, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
123.091
LA Chargers
124.456
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 1 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+7); Under

Tampa Bay @ Denver

Game 483-484
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
137.520
Denver
125.458
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 12
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-6); Over

Dallas @ Seattle

Game 485-486
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.739
Seattle
136.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+5); Under

Detroit @ Arizona

Game 481-482
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
122.855
Arizona
135.718
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 13
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 5 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-5 1/2): Over

Green Bay @ New Orleans

Game 487-488
September 27, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.388
New Orleans
133.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3); Over


Monday, September 28

Kansas City @ Baltimore

Game 489-490
September 28, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
139.135
Baltimore
150.460
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 11 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-3); Under

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Dolphins (0-2) @ Jacksonville (1-1)
— Miami lost its first two games, by 10-3 points.
— Dolphins gave up 417 passing yards to Josh Allen last week.
— Miami is 9-16 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.

— Jaguars scored 57 points in splitting their first two games; they’re scored 7 TD’s on 17 drives.
— J’ville has converted 15-24 3rd down plays this season.
— Last 4+ years, Jaguars are 6-9 ATS as a home favorite.

— Jaguars are 5-4 in this series, winning last two meetings, 23-20/17-7.
— Dolphins won three of last four visits to Jacksonville.

Raiders (2-0) @ New England (1-1)
— Long travel, short week for Las Vegas, after their Monday night win.
— Raiders scored 34-34 points in winning their first two games; they scored exactly 17 points in all four halves this season.
— Last three years, Raiders are 9-14 ATS as a road underdog.

— Since 2013, Patriots are 16-8 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 4+ years, New England is 25-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
—Patriots converted 12 of first 22 third down plays.

— Patriots won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
— Raiders lost last three visits here, by 3-7-10 points.
— Silver/Black’s last win in Foxboro was in 1994.

Rams (2-0) @ Buffalo (2-0)
— Rams won first two games, running ball for 153-191 yards, converting 16-29 on 3rd down.
— LA is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Rams have allowed four TD’s so far, but none in 2nd half; they outscored first two foes 23-6 after halftime.

— Bills won first two games, scoring 27-31 points, gaining 928 yards.
— Newly acquired WR Diggs caught 16 balls for 239 yards in the two games.
— Buffalo is 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Home side lost five of last six series games.
— Buffalo won six of last eight series games.
— Rams split their six visits to Orchard Park.

Texans (0-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
— Texans lost their first two games, giving up 34-33 points.
—Houston converted only 7-19 3rd down plays so far.
— Texans are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Steelers won their first two games, scoring 26-26 points.
— Pitt opponents have been in Steeler red zone 7 times, but scored only 22 points.
— Last 3+ years, Pittsburgh is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite.

— Steelers won four of six series games, with three wins by 20+ points.
— Houston lost two of three visits here; the lone win was in 2002.

49ers (1-1) @ NJ Giants (0-2)
— 49ers beat Jets 31-13 on this same field last week; they’re spending this week practicing in West Virginia.
— Last 5+ years, 49ers are 4-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— 49ers have had numerous injuries; QB Garoppolo i(ankle) is expected to play here.
— NFC West teams are 6-0 ATS outside their division this year.

— Giants lost their first two games, by 10-4 points.
— RB Barkley (knee) is out for year; Giants have been outrushed 276-104.
— Big Blue is 1-11 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog.

— Teams split last four series games.
— 49ers lost three of last four road games in this series- they

Titans (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
— Tennessee won its first two games, by total of five points.
— Titans have scored 44 points in seven trips to the red zone.
— Last 2+ years, Tennessee is 4-3 ATS as a road favorite.

— Vikings lost their first two games, allowing 43-28 points- they were outscored 37-13 in first half of those games.
— Minnesota lost field position by 14-15 yards; they’re minus-3 in turnovers.
— Last four years, Vikings are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.

— Vikings won six of last seven series games.
— Titans are 1-6 in Minnesota, with lone win in 1992; they were outscored 92-34 in last three visits here.
— Tennessee’s lone win in the Twin Cities was in 1992.

Washington (1-1) @ Cleveland (1-1)
— Washington trailed 17-0/20-0 in their two games.
— Redskins converted only 9-30 third down plays.
— Last 4+ years, Washington is 15-11 ATS as a road underdog.

— Browns split their first two games, allowing 38-30 points (8 TD’s/19 drives).
— Cleveland has been outscored 31-14 in 2nd halves of games.
— Browns are 4-5-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

— Redskins won last three series games, by 3-17-11 points.
— Teams split two games played here; last one was in 2012.

Bengals (0-2) @ Philadelphia (0-2)
— Bengals lost their first two games, by 3-5 points.
— Cincy allowed 370 rushing yards in their first two games.
— Last 3+ years, Bengals are 15-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Eagles lost their first two games, were outscored 36-3 in 2nd half.
— Philly turned ball over over three times in both games, is -5 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.

— Bengals are 3-0-1 in last four series games, with all three wins by 18+ points.
— Cincy is 5-3 in its visits to Philadelphia.

Bears (2-0) @ Atlanta (0-2)
— Chicago won its first two games, by four points each.
— Bears ran ball for 149-135 yards in their first two games.
— Chicago is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Falcons lost 40-39 in Dallas LW, blowing 29-10 halftime lead.
— Atlanta allowed 38-40 points in first two games (10 TD’s/23 drives).
— Falcons are 5-7 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

— Chicago is 5-3 in last eight series games; they won three of last five visits here.

Jets (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
— Jets lost their first two games, by 10-18 points- they trailed both games 21-3 at half.
— Gang Green was outgained by 232 yards in their first two games.
— Jets are 8-17-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.

— Colts split their first two games, despite outgaining opponents 799-416.
— Indy has struggled in red zone, scoring 34 points in nine drives inside 20.
— Colts are 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Jets won four of last five series games, winning three of last four visits here.

Panthers (0-2) @ LA Chargers (1-1)
— Carolina lost its first two games, giving up 34-31 points.
— Panthers lost field position in first two games, by 7-11 yards.
— Carolina is 3-5 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.

— Unsure who starts at QB here for Chargers, Taylor/Herbert.
— LA split its first two games, losing in OT to rival Chiefs last week.
— Chargers are 3-9 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

— Carolina won five of six series games, with lone loss in 2009.
— Panthers are 3-0 against the Chargers in California.

Lions (0-2) @ Arizona (2-0)
— Detroit lost its first two games, allowing 27-42 points.
— Lions have been outscored 46-17 in 2nd half of games.
— Detroit is 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog.

— Cardinals won their first two games, running ball for 180-160 yards.
— Arizona has 20 penalties for 204 yards in two games; that’s a lot.
— Last 5+ years, Cardinals are 8-14 ATS as a home favorite.

— Detroit is 2-0-1 in last three series games; they blew a big lead in LY’s 27-27 tie, when both teams kicked a FG in overtime.
— Lions are 1-8-1 in last ten visits to Arizona, 1-0-1 in last two.

Buccaneers (1-1) @ Denver (0-2)
— Tampa Bay split its first two games, scoring 23-31 points.
— Buccaneers are 6-3-3 ATS in last 12 gamest AFC teams.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.

— Denver lost its first two games, by 2-5 points.
— QB Lock is out for two weeks; backup Driskel gets the start; he was 1-7 as a starter for the Bengals/Lions the last couple years.
— Denver is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.
— AFC West teams are 5-0-1 ATS outside their division.

— Denver won seven of last nine series games, winning last four.
— Bucs lost four of five visits here, with line win in 1993.

Cowboys (1-1) @ Seattle (2-0)
— Dallas split its first two games, which were decided by total of 4 points.
— Cowboys trailed 20-0 LW; they were -3 in turnovers, lost field position by 17 yards, but they won, recovering an onside kick when they looked like a lost cause.
— Last four years, Dallas is 7-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Seahawks won their first two games, scoring 38-35 points (10 TD’s/20 drives).
— Seattle has run 118 plays; only 16 of them have been on third down.
— Seahawks are 7-12-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.

— Seattle won three of last four series games, with loss 24-22 in ’18 playoffs.
— Cowboys lost four of last five visits to Seattle.

Packers (2-0) @ New Orleans (1-1)
— Green Bay won its first two games, scoring 43-42 points (9 TD’s/18 drives)
— Packers ran ball for 417 yards, threw for 593 so far- decent balance.
— Green Bay is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Short week for Saints, who lost in Las Vegas Monday night.
— New Orleans converted 12-26 on 3rd down; both their games went over.
— Saints are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.

— Home side won six of last eight series games; Packers lost their last three road games against the Saints, by 15-22-21 points.
— Green Bay won Super Bowl XXXI here, in 1998; their last win against the Saints here was back in 1995.

Chiefs (2-0) @ Baltimore (2-0)
— Chiefs won their first two games, scoring 34-23 points- they rallied from behind to beat the rival Chargers in OT last week.
— KC has converted 14-28 third down plays; they made two 58-yard FG’s last week.
— Last 4+ years, Chiefs are 10-2 ATS as a road underdog.

— Ravens won their first two games, scoring 38-33 points.
— Baltimore has five takeaways, is already +4 in turnovers- they outscored first two opponents 27-6 in 2nd half.
— Ravens are 9-15 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.

— Chiefs won last three series games, by 20-3-5 points.
— KC beat the Ravens 33-28 LY in Week 3; they’ve won four of last five trips to Baltimore.

[StarDust Bum]

Dolphins vs. Jaguars Week 3 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Another week of NFL action has now arrived, and with this being the only major sport in town in the about a month or so, it won't be long before everyone in the market wonders where the first half of the season went.

It's been an entertaining first two weeks so far with holding calls down and points across the league up. Those are two talking points this week and while I'm never sure on the former, the latter is something to consider in your handicapping.

When stats like how the league wide scoring average is up over 50 points through two weeks get spoken everywhere, it might be time to lean towards flipping the script.

Yes, scoring is well up through these first two weeks, but in the market that means that early numbers where 'over' plays may make a lot of sense are going to get bet up early, and that's on top of the potential for numbers already being shaded a little higher as well. You've really got to like an 'over' for a game if you haven't pulled the trigger on it yet, as numbers are only going to climb as a generalization.

It will be interesting to see if Week 3 brings a few more 'under' tickets to the window, as something's going to give eventually. Maybe it starts with the Thursday nighter down in Jacksonville?

Betting Resources

Week 3 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: TIAA Bank Field
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Date: Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Line Movements

Spread: Jacksonville -3
Money-Line: Jacksonville -160, Miami +140
Total: 47.5

Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to lift Miami to its first win of the season at Jacksonville on Thursday. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Miami

Overall: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Jacksonville

Overall: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U

Over vs. Under

Handicapping the Total

Popularized numbers like the league wide scoring average being well up this year is going to have more on an influence on the market from start to finish these next couple of weeks.

Numbers are going to open higher in some instances, others are going to move in a hurry in others. But the later in the week you wait to take these 'overs' is when you are going to be left with the worst of it a lot of the time. This TNF game is case in point.

This total opened up at 44 nearly everywhere, and within 24 hours it was already at 46. There are many examples of the same thing occurring in other games every week right now, and it makes timing your bets a bit easier. If you know you are going to love an 'over' in a game, you'd better look at it early.

A four-point jump from open is something that's got to be respected, but I do believe it's also an easy spot to go the contrarian route and look for scoring to come down. This is still a TNF game on short week for these guys, and yes, Burrow and Mayfield lit it up in this spot a week ago, but I just don't see quarterbacks Gardner Minshew and RyanFitzpatrick putting up a similar performance.

These guys love to dink and dunk the ball down the field and then cough up the ball late in drives. Fitzpatrick is known for trying to force things in when the field shrinks down, and Jacksonville has shown that they'll be very shrewd in picking their spots in when to take shots.

Furthermore, how many sloppy TNF games have we seen in the past where guys/teams just don't have it and it's a 21-10, sloppy, exhibition-like game? There are at least a handful of them on Thursday's every year. Do you really want to trust these two teams of all teams to avoid something like that happening? In by far the worst of the number now?

I sure don't, and in fact I do believe it's an easy look at the 'under' now for this game. I'm not sure Miami's offense is going to be all that good away from home - something that's been the case for them in recent years – and I'm not sure Jacksonville's defense shouldn't be rated slightly higher at home.

48 is a big number for two teams that came into the season as likely lottery candidates, playing in a notorious 'under' spot on TNF, and the perception of it being an easier 'over' in bumping the number up so quick only has me looking at the 'under.'

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 23, 2018 - Jacksonville 17 at Miami 7, Jaguars -3, Under 39.5
Sep. 20, 2015 - Jacksonville 23 vs. Miami 20, Jaguars +6, Over 42
Oct. 26, 2014 - Miami 27 vs. Jacksonville 13, Dolphins -7, Under 42

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Handicapping the Side

The side saw a big early move too as a line basically at pick'em got to Jacksonville -3 in a hurry. There has been a lot to like about the Jags from their 2-0 ATS record, but they were also catching a full TD in those games.

Catching points is when the Jaguars want to be really strongly considered in my view, because who knows how consistent this young team really is right yet. Isn't this one of those spots where teams like the Jags that were projected to be near the basement this year kind of come back down to earth?

Again, with the best of the number already gone, easy to pass on the Jags side.

Doesn't mean I want any part of Miami though, as they are 1-1 ATS this season with both games essentially being a coin flip on whether or not they sneak in the backdoor.

Week 1 they had their chance with 3rd and 6 from the Patriots 10 in the final two minutes before Fitzpatrick threw an INT. Week 2 saw them get through the backdoor – after giving it up just prior – in the final minute of the game to cover the number against the Bills, but who wants any part of that.

Catching just three points as an underdog is the smallest potential backdoor the Dolphins will be working with this year, and if their best games are coming down to coin flip plays late, how could you confidently make a case for them here either.

I guess the notion that the number's the best it's ever been on Miami now at +3 will look slightly appealing to some, but I want nothing to do with sweating out a garbage time drive with the Dolphins late. Nor do I want to bet into the worst of the number with a Jags team that may not be all their2-0 ATS mark projects them out to be.

Easy pass on the side from both perspectives. But Jags probably win.

Key Injuries

Miami

S Clayton Fejedelem: Pec - Doubtful
CB Byron Jones: Groin, Achilles - Out

Jacksonville

WR DJ Chark Jr: Chest - Questionable
K Josh Lambo: Hip - Out
C Brandon Linder: Knee - Out

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at JAC 08:20 PM

MIA +3.0

O 49.0

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........32-28-1.......53.33%.....+1.50

[StarDust Bum]

Cowboys vs. Seahawks Week 3 Odds, Preview
Michael Crosson

The new betting favorite to win the NFL MVP, Russell Wilson (+300) and the Seattle Seahawks will host Mike McCarthy’s Dallas Cowboys in America’s Game of the Week on Fox this Sunday evening at 4:25 p.m. ET.

The paths traveled by Dallas and Seattle in 2020 have not closely resembled each other so far, but has left Sunday’s contest equally important for the two squads as the Seahawks and Cowboys both find themselves tied for a share of their respected NFC division crown.

Betting Resources

Week 3 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Line Movements

The Seahawks opened as a three and a half-point favorite against the Cowboys following victories over the Falcons and Patriots in Weeks 1 and 2, and we have seen that number climb up to Seattle -5 heading into the weekend as the public continues to back Pete Carroll’s team to grab its third consecutive win to start the season.

This contest opened with the highest total on Sunday’s NFL slate at OU 55 points, but the public still felt that was not high enough, as the oddsmakers were forced to bump the ‘over-under’ up to OU 57 with the majority of early bet tickets coming in on the ‘over.’

Spread: Seattle -5
Money-Line: Seattle -230, Dallas +195
Total: 55.5

The Seahawks' offense has clicked through two wins as Seattle welcome in Dallas on Sunday afternoon. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Dallas

Overall: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Seattle

Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U

Head-to-Head History

Jan. 5, 2019 - Dallas 24 vs. Seattle 22, Seahawks +2.5, Over 43
Sep. 23, 2018 - Seattle 24 vs. Dallas 13, Seahawks -1, Under 40
Dec. 24, 2017 - Seattle 21 at Dallas 12, Seahawks +4.5, Under 47

The last time Dallas and Seattle met up was in Jerry’s World during the Wild Card Round of last year’s playoffs, which resulted in a 24-22 win for Jason Garrett’s Cowboys.

Dak Prescott got his first post-season win under his belt, despite having a relatively mediocre game, completing 22 of 33 passes for 226 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick – he also ran one in. Michael Gallup was quiet in the contest, but the same cannot be said about Amari Cooper, as the wideout officially made the trade with the Raiders worth it in the playoffs by hauling in seven receptions for 106 yards in the Cowboys’ win.

The real difference-maker in last year’s contest though was Seattle’s inability to stop the run, as they allowed Ezekiel Elliott to rumble for 173 total yards and a touchdown for the game. On the other side of things, the Seahawks failed to get anything going on the ground, rushing for just 45 combined yards as a team, aside from a Rashaad Penny 25-yard run.

Last year’s playoff win makes Prescott and Elliott 1-2 SU against the Seahawks for their careers.

Cowboys vs. Seahawks

Handicapping the Side

We actually luck out a little here as Seattle and Dallas are one of the few teams already this season that share a common past opponent in the Atlanta Falcons.

Although it may not have appeared like it thanks to two garbage-time touchdowns from Calvin Ridley, the Seahawks stomped Atlanta in Week 1, leading the game 31-12 in the early-goings of the fourth quarter before finishing the contest with a deceptively close tally of 38-25.

After being pushed around by the Rams in McCarthy’s first game behind the wheel, Cowboys fans everywhere could be found in fits of rage when their team fell behind 20-0 in the first half against Atlanta. The Falcons just fell apart in the second half like they tend to infamously do though, getting outscored by Zeke and company 30-10 in the final two stanzas.

So far this season, Seattle has undoubtedly been the team to beat in the NFC while Dallas should be considered lucky to be knotted up with the Washington Football Team in the division standings at this point and time.

The Cowboys are banged up on the o-line and I just have not seen enough out of Kellen Moore’s offense so far this season to back them against a unit that is running-up 36.5 points per game on defenses this season.

If you are going to pick a side here, please do not waste your money on Dallas.

Over vs. Under

Handicapping the Total

The Seahawks have cashed ‘over’ tickets in both of their games so far this season by scoring 38 points against Atlanta and 35 points against the Patriots, respectively. It also does not help that Seattle’s secondary, headed by Jamal Adams, has struggled much more than anticipated out of the gate after acquiring the former-Jets safety this past offseason.

Dallas and Los Angeles had one of the rare Week 1 ‘unders’ by losing to the Rams 20-17 on opening Sunday, but the ‘over-under’ was never in doubt in their second game – combining for almost 40 points in the first half against Atlanta and easily cashing ‘over’ tickets.

The Cowboys will be without Leighton Vander Esch in this one, and Jaylon Smith has been downright bad so far this year. ‘Over 57’ is a scary total to bet which is why I am electing to stay away from the ‘over-under’ here, but if I had to lean in a direction for this game’s total, I would lean with the ‘over.’

Key Injuries

Dallas

CB Chidobe Awuzie: Hamstring - Out
DE DeMarcus Lawrence: Knee - Questionable
CB Trevon Diggs: Personal - Questionable
OT Tyron Smith: Neck - Questionable

Seattle

DE Rasheem Green: Neck - Out
CB Neiko Thorpe: Hip - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Questionable
DE Benson Mayowa: Groin - Questionable
OT Cedric Ogbuehi: Pectoral - Questionable

Do not be fooled by Seattle’s lengthy injury report, the players Dallas could be missing on Sunday are much more critical than the players the Seahawks have already lost to the injury bug.

The Cowboys have a top-10 offensive line in the NFL when the whole crew stays healthy, but that quickly falls apart when they begin having absences and are required to move guys around up front.

Keep an eye on Tyron Smith’s status heading into this one, as Dallas will already be struggling to fill La’el Collins’ shoes at the tackle spot.

[StarDust Bum]

Packers vs. Saints Week 3 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

I don't know what it is about Patriots/Seahawks games, but they always come down to the end, and you'd better hope you're on the team that's leading at that stage, because both sides haven't been able to punch it in on the ground from short distance after Newton and the Pats got stuffed last week.

Not sure this week's game will be able to top last week's ending to SNF, but you know an Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees showdown does bring potential for plenty of other interesting fireworks going off late.

Considering Brees has been on the wrong end of plenty of criticism this week about whether or not he's still got “it” to be a capable starting NFL QB, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Saints respond. And whether or not WR Michael Thomas gets back on the field and what kind of shape his status leaves this line by the time kickoff arrives.

For Green Bay, the Aaron Rodgers FU Tour to the world is looking to continue indoors this week, as he's spent the past two weeks hanging 40 + on two division rivals. People still want to talk about how the organization didn't draft some immediate pass catching help in a pass catching draft for Rodgers, but how about what he's doing with the receiving core he's got already in uniform.

Sometimes that flashy top draft choice isn't all he's cut out to be, and with Rodgers generally always having a good idea about how looks defenses will give him – shade Davante Adams in coverage and work from there – he can pinpoint the route he believes is the best first option.

In fact, not having that secondary “name” out there running routes may actually be working to Green Bay's advantage right now because as long those guys win their individual matchup on each play, someone's going to be wide open with a very little chance of secondary help coming immediately. Two straight weeks of scoring 40+ and it's tough to argue with the results.

Betting Resources

Week 3 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

Line Movements

Spread: New Orleans -3
Money-Line: New Orleans -170, Green Bay +150
Total: 51.5

The Saints return home following a loss at Las Vegas as New Orleans is a slight favorite against Green Bay. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Green Bay

Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U

New Orleans

Overall: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U

Over vs. Under

Handicapping the Total

The funny thing about this game from a total perspective is that having Rodgers and the Packers off back-to-back 40+ efforts, coming into a fast, indoor track where noise is not going to be a problem at all, all the prevailing thoughts will be here will be on the 'over'.

And yet, from a market perspective approach, knowing that suggests that letting this total keep climbing and then going 'low' with the 'under' on it makes quite a bit of sense too. After all, questions about whether or not Brees and the Saints still got it are lingering out in the open now, and what if the can't score the football.

Going against the market and looking low is going to be the position I end up siding with more often than not, but I want no problem of an 'under' with Rodgers indoors here. Even as I do generally believe older QB's like Brees and Brady get overrated late in their careers because of name status and not the facts that they are early 40's QB's out there playing a young man's game, I'm not ready to completely write off Brees and the Saints just yet.

A return by Thomas could be all the Saints need to get going again, and it's because it operates in that similar fashion that Adams does for Green Bay. He gives Brees the knowledge of the defense likely shading things his way more often than not, and then the ability to work off of that and find the open man.

Remember, New Orleans still put up 24 points without the services of Thomas last week, and what's kind of gotten lost in Green Bay's 2-0 start and all the Rodgers love is the fact that the Packers defense has still allowed an average 27.5 points per game this year. Only two games yes, but Brees is by far the best QB of the bunch to take a crack at this Packers defense this year as well.

Long winded way of making this total an easy one to pass on. No reason to go contrarian for contrarian sake and sweat an 'under' for the full 60 minutes, and no reason to jump on with the masses simply wanting action and cursing yourself for not being disciplined enough to stay away when this game is 17-13 going into the 4th quarter and you need three TD's plus.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 22, 2017 - New Orleans 26 at Green Bay 17, Saints -3.5, Under 45.5
Oct. 26, 2014 - New Orleans 44 vs. Green Bay 23, Saints -2, Over 55
Sep. 30, 2012 - Green Bay 28 vs. New Orleans 27, Saints +7.5, Over 54

Packers vs. Saints

Handicapping the Side

It's been nothing but Packers money since this line came out, as this chatter about whether Brees is done or not has really started to take root in the market. I view it as he's on his way to being done, and the market correction we seem to see coming in on the Saints now is probably where they should have started being a little overrated to begin with.

Either way, it's still just three weeks in and it's no time to panic. The Saints are 1-1 SU and lost when they didn't have their best weapon on offense. Things should be alright Saints fans.

But with how good the Packers have looked through two weeks, early support on their side was always going to show up regardless of what the Saints did on MNF. A line that did open as high as -6 in spots was about the best example out there of how the Saints were overrated to begin with and it appear the market has caught up quickly with them. All well and good.

Yet, a move from the -6 range to the -3 range is a little too large not to start seriously considering the Saints side now. New Orleans has reached that “buy low” option now where there is minimal belief in this team right now – especially from the minimal belief from bettors that they (bettors) had this team pegged correctly before the season (a supposed legitimate contender) and that makes said team difficult to cap.

So most moves if they come, are going to be against teams in those spots. The market quickly took advantage of what opened up as a bad number, but the money that has continued to push it down further is worth questioning.

Green Bay has looked spectacular through two weeks, but outside of falling down early to Detroit, what has really gone wrong for them? How often do NFL teams continue to look great and break great for weeks in a row?

Not saying it doesn't happen, but any Green Bay ATS money now has missed the boat (even if it wins), and betting into the worst of the number on a team that's been able to gloss over some concerns on defense because of their spectacular play on offense is not a handicapping practice I want to routinely get into.

The Saints have covered the number in each of their last four tries to do so after failing to cover the spread the week before, and with Brees hearing all the critics out there and Rodgers hearing nothing but praise, maybe it's the longstanding Saints QB who decides to kick off his own FU Tour this week with a vintage performance to knock off a quality foe like the Packers.

At these current prices, backing a Saints team that's become slightly abandoned by the market this week is the only way I can look.

Key Injuries

Green Bay

C Corey Linsley: Thumb - Questionable
WR Davante Adams: Hamstring - Questionable
T Billy Turner: Knee - Questionable
LB Randy Ramsey: Groin - Questionable
TE Josiah Deguara: Ankle - Questionable
DT Kenny Clark: Groin - Questionable

New Orleans

WR Michael Thomas: Ankle - Out
DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow - Questionable
LB Chase Hansen: Hip - Questionable

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAR at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -1.5
U 46.5
+500 +500

CIN at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI -6.0
O 46.5
+500 +500

HOU at PIT 01:00 PM
PIT -3.5
U 46.5
+500 +500

CHI at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL -2.5
O 46.0
+500 +500

TEN at MIN 01:00 PM
TEN -3.0
O 49.5
+500 +500

LV at NE 01:00 PM
NE -7.0
O 47.0
+500 +500

SF at NYG 01:00 PM
SF -3.0
U 44.0
+500 +500

WAS at CLE 01:00 PM
WAS +7.5
O 45.0
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

LATE GAMES:

NYJ at IND 04:05 PM
NYJ +12.5
O 44.0
+500 +500

CAR at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -6.0
O 43.5
+500 +500

DAL at SEA 04:25 PM
DAL +5.5
U 56.5
+500 +500

TB at DEN 04:25 PM
TB -5.5
U 42.5
+500 +500

DET at ARI 04:25 PM
ARI -5.0
O 55.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT WINNER:

GB at NO 08:20 PM

NO -3.5

O 52.0

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........43-46-1.......48.31%.....-37.00