Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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Sunday Blitz - Week 11
November 17, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Cowboys at Falcons (-3 ½, 49 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

It took over two months, but the Cowboys (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) finally won a game away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas began the season 0-4 on the road, but broke through in last Sunday’s 27-20 victory at Philadelphia as 7 ½-point underdogs. Ezekiel Elliott scored his second touchdown of the game with 3:19 remaining to break a 20-20 tie as Dallas picked up its third consecutive cover in the underdog role.

Atlanta (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) is back at home after splitting a pair of road contests at Washington and Cleveland. The Falcons were tripped up by the Browns last week as 5 ½-point favorites in a 28-16 defeat to snap a three-game winning streak. Atlanta slipped to 2-4 ATS in the favorite role this season, but the Falcons have won each of their last two games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium over the Buccaneers and Giants.

Dallas has yet to win consecutive games this season, as the Cowboys have won 17 points or less in the first three chances off a victory. The Falcons crushed the Cowboys last season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 27-7 as 3 ½-point favorites. To put the situations in perspective considering these teams met in Week 10 in 2017, the Cowboys owned a better record than the Falcons (5-3 vs. 4-4) and Dallas was on a three-game winning streak.

Best Bet: Falcons 28, Cowboys 20

Texans (-3, 42 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST

A pair of unlikely division leaders meet up in D.C. each seeking a 7-3 start. Washington (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) won only seven games last season, but can equal with that mark with a victory on Sunday with six games remaining. The Redskins bounced back from a 24-point home loss to the Falcons to knock off the Buccaneers in Tampa, 16-3 as 3 ½-point underdogs last week. Although Washington’s defense allowed 501 yards to Tampa Bay, the Redskins held the Bucs out of the end zone as the lone touchdown connection came from Alex Smith to Josh Doctson in the third quarter.

The Texans (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) began the season in an 0-3 hole, but Houston has rebounded in a huge way by winning six consecutive games to take over first place in the AFC South. Although Houston has scored 20 points or less in four of the past five games, the Texans have limited four opponents to 17 points or fewer. The Texans are off the bye week as Houston held off Denver two weeks ago, 19-17 as newly acquired Demaryius Thomas hauled in three catches for 61 yards against his former team.

Houston is listed as a road favorite for the third time this season as the Texans lost at Tennessee and won in overtime at Indianapolis. The Redskins have put together a solid 5-1 ATS mark when receiving points this season, including outright home underdog victories over Dallas, Carolina, and Green Bay. Houston is making its first trip to Washington since defeating the Redskins at FedEx Field in overtime in 2010.

Best Bet: Redskins 19, Texans 17

Eagles at Saints (-8, 56) – 4:25 PM EST

The defending champions and the team that has a legitimate shot at the championship meet up in the prime late kickoff at the Superdome. Philadelphia (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) has suffered through a Super Bowl hangover as the Eagles haven’t won back-to-back games all season. The Eagles dropped their third consecutive home game last Sunday night against the Cowboys, as each of the past two wins for Philadelphia have come away from Lincoln Financial Field against the Jaguars (in London) and Giants.

The Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) allowed 48 points to Tampa Bay in the season opener in a shocking loss as 10-point favorites. New Orleans hasn’t lost since, riding an eight-game winning streak after scoring nearly 100 points in the past two weeks. The Saints avoided a letdown after their thrilling 45-35 victory over the Rams in Week 9, as New Orleans wiped out Cincinnati last Sunday, 51-14 as six-point road favorites. Drew Brees threw three touchdown passes against the Bengals to improve his touchdown to interception ratio to an incredible 20/1 this season.

Philadelphia is listed as an underdog for the first time in 2018, as the Eagles posted a 6-2 ATS mark during their Super Bowl run when receiving points. The Saints are in their biggest favorite position since Week 2 against Cleveland when they laid 10 points and escaped with a three-point win. These teams haven’t met since 2015 when the Eagles destroyed the Saints, 39-17 at Lincoln Financial Field.

Best Bet: Saints 30, Eagles 27

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (1-4 last week, 24-24-2 on season)
Lions +4
Falcons -3 ½
Colts -2
Vikings +2 ½
Redskins +3

Chris David (5-0 last week, 31-18-1 on season)
Lions +4
Colts -2
Texans -3
Broncos +7
Raiders +5 ½

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 5-5 on season)

UNDER 46 ½ - Steelers at Jaguars

Jacksonville has been an unmitigated disaster the last five weeks by losing five times since jumping out to a 3-1 start. However, the Jaguars welcome in a Steelers’ squad that Jacksonville defeated twice last season, including knocking out Pittsburgh in the divisional playoffs. Pittsburgh is coming off a fantastic offensive performance against Carolina in Week 10 by dropping 52 point on the Panthers. However, the Steelers have been carried by their defense, which has allowed 21 points or less in five consecutive games, while Jacksonville has yielded 20 points or fewer in four games at TIAA Bank Field this season.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The two Los Angeles teams have combined for a 16-3 mark this season with plenty of spotlight on the Rams, who host the Chiefs in a Monday night showdown this week. However, we’ll focus on the Chargers, who own a 7-2 mark and have won six in a row. Los Angeles returns home to face Denver, as the Broncos are off the bye week and have picked up only one road victory this season. However, the Broncos have hung with some of the league’s best in a pair of close losses to the Chiefs and a narrow home setback to the Rams.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Cardinals opened as 3 ½-point home favorites against the Raiders in a battle of two teams fighting for the top pick in next April’s NFL draft. Arizona has ascended to a 5 ½-point favorite at many books as Oakland has failed to cover in five straight games. The Cardinals are listed as a favorite for only the second time this season as they were steamrolled by the Redskins in Week 1 as two-point chalk, 24-6.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Giants don’t put together consecutive solid efforts (you probably knew that). Dating back to last season, New York owns a dreadful 0-8 ATS mark in its last eight off an ATS win, as the Giants are in this situation on Sunday against Tampa Bay. The G-Men rallied past the 49ers last Monday on the road, but New York is winless in four home contests this season, while losing 10 of its past 12 games at Met Life Stadium.

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Total Talk - Week 11
November 17, 2018
By Chris David

The ‘over’ went 8-6 last week it’s and fair to say that the results were never in doubt in a dozen of the games. Total bettors riding the ‘over’ in the Patriots-Titans looked good at halftime with Tennessee ahead 24-10 but New England was shutout 10-0 in the second-half. Another tough outcome took place in Philadelphia as Dallas led 13-3 at halftime and the ‘under’ (45 ½) looked like the right side. Sure enough, the pair combined for 31 points in the final 30 minutes and helped bettors chasing SNF ‘over’ tickets. Through 10 weeks, we’re looking at a stalemate (74-74) and that back-and-forth action shows you how good the oddsmakers have been this season.

2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 10 8-6 9-5 5-9

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 74-74 77-71 68-76-4

2018 RESULTS - OTHER

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 10 2-2 5-1 1-0 1-0

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 23-18 20-24 16-10 6-2

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Dallas at Atlanta: 47 ½ to 49 ½
Tennessee at Indianapolis: 48 to 50 ½
Denver at L.A. Chargers: 47 to 45 ½
Philadelphia at New Orleans: 54 ½ to 56 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Dallas at Atlanta: Over 91%
Oakland at Arizona: Under 85%
Denver at L.A. Chargers: Under 82%
Philadelphia at New Orleans: Over 80%
Kansas City at L.A. Rams: Over 76%

Divisional Matchups

If you’re a believe that all things balance out in the long run, then you could’ve cleaned up last week by playing the ‘over’ in the divisional games. After watched the ‘under’ go 10-2 the last three weeks and 23-15 on the season, the ‘over’ bounced back with a 5-1 (86%) mark last Sunday.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: As of Saturday morning, no numbers posted on this game and the quarterback issue for the Ravens is up in the air. I can’t imagine Baltimore moving the football if Joe Flacco doesn’t go and Cincinnati certainly showed how limited it is offensively without wide receiver A.J. Green. With healthy players, the ‘over’ went 2-0 last season but the ‘under’ was on a 3-0-1 run prior to those results.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The total split last season but that was without Colts QB Andrew Luck playing. Make a note that the signal caller is 9-0 in his career against the Titans and Indy is averaging 28.7 PPG in those contests. Something has to give here knowing Tennessee is 2-0 to the ‘under’ in divisional games while Indy is 2-0 to the ‘over.’

Danver at L.A. Chargers: If you like to play home-away trends and tendencies for head-to-head matchups, then you may lean to the ‘under’ in this matchup. The last four games played in California (LA, San Diego) have gone ‘under’ while the ‘over’ has cashed in the previous four in Colorado.

Minnesota at Chicago: (See Below)

Fifty Something

Totals that have closed in the fifties this season have watched the ‘over’ go 20-19 this season. There are four games currently in this neighborhood for Week 11 and that includes the sixty-something number posted on the MNF matchup.

Listed below are the games with totals listed in the fifties and sixties for Week 11 along with their ‘over/under’ record listed in parenthesis and some notable trends too.

Tennessee (3-6) at Indianapolis (6-3): The Colts have watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home and the Indy offense (30.8 PPG) has been very sharp.

Tampa Bay (7-2) at N.Y. Giants (4-5): Something has to give in this matchup with New York only averaging 14.8 PPG at home this season, which has led to a 3-1 ‘under’ record. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 5-0 to the ‘over’ on the road and the defense (40.2) has been atrocious in those games.

Philadelphia (4-5) at New Orleans (5-4): Three of the four ‘over’ tickets for the Birds came on the road and the one ‘under’ took place in London. The Saints own a 3-1 ‘over’ mark at the Superdome behind the perfect total combo – a great offense (37.2 PPG) and a weak defense (30 PPG).

Kansas City (5-5) at L.A. Rams (5-5): Chiefs stronger ‘over’ team (4-1) on the road and the offense (36.8 PPG) has been better as well. The Rams flipped their total results from last season, when they posted more ‘over’ tickets on the road. This season, the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 at the Coliseum.

Bye Bye Rust

The ‘over’ has gone 14-6 (70%) in teams playing off the ‘bye’ this season and while we saw a couple clubs struggle offensively last week, rested units are averaging 25.8 points per game so far. Four teams will be playing with rest this week and two of the clubs have shown solid numbers with their coaches.

Bengals at Ravens: As noted above, QB issues key for Baltimore but John Harbaugh is 8-2 both SU and ATS in his last 10 games with rest and the defense has only allowed 13.7 PPG during this span.

Texans at Redskins: Houston’s Bill O’Brien is another coach (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) who has put up solid numbers off the bye. The offense has averaged 23.8 PPG and what’s impressive is that all four of those games were on the road.

Broncos at Chargers
Vikings at Bears

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ posted a 3-0 record in the primetime games last week and we had another Thursday ‘over’ connect this week already as the Seahawks outlasted the Packers 27-24 at home. Including those four results, the ‘over’ sits at 18-15 on the season in games played under the lights.

Minnesota at Chicago: The Vikings captured a pair of ugly wins over the Bears (23-10, 20-17) last season and those totals ranged from 38 to 41. This week’s number is higher (44 ½) and that’s a little surprising knowing Chicago (319 YPG) and Minnesota (322 YPG) are ranked fourth and fifth respectively in total defense. However, the Vikings offense (30 PPG) has been better away from home and the Bears enter this game on a 5-1 ‘over’ run. Chicago’s offense (34.3 PPG) has been on fire during this stretch but duplicating those numbers won’t be as easy versus Minnesota. Make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 on Sunday Night Football this season.

Kansas City at L.A. Rams: It’s rare to see NFL totals this high (63 ½) but based on what we’ve seen from the Chiefs (35.3 PPG) and Rams (33.5 PPG) offensively, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here plus neither team is great defensively. Bettors daring to take the low side could make a case that the Rams have been suspect against the run recently and the Chiefs may follow the blueprint and try to grind out a win. I’m expecting both teams to get at least five scores and the ratio of touchdowns to field goals will likely decide this result. Kansas City hasn’t settled (41 TDs, 16 FGs) for three points often but we have seen Los Angeles (36 TDs, 21 FGs) stall a little bit more offensively. The Chiefs are averaging 32 PPG in two matchups vs. the NFC this season while the Rams have posted 30.3 PPG in three wins against the AFC West. For what it’s worth, the ‘under’ is 3-0 in the past three encounters in this limited non-conference series.

Fearless Predictions

I was greedy last week and take full blame for trying to double-up on Arizona in its game at Kansas City. The Cardinals only managed 14 points and the defense played surprisingly well. That outcome put us in the red ($220) for the weekend but we’re still ahead ($510) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-N.Y. Giants 52 ½
Best Under: Denver-L.A. Chargers 45 ½
Best Team Total: Under 23 ½ Chicago

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 43 Tennessee-Indianapolis
Over 42 Carolina-Detroit
Over 48 ½ Philadelphia-New Orleans

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Gridiron Angles - Week 11
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bengals are 11-0-1 ATS (5.3 ppg) since Dec 14, 2008 as a dog off a game as a dog of more than three points where they gained no more than 18 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since Oct 22, 2006 as a road favorite coming off a home win where they allowed at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-9 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 coming off a home win where Marcus Mariota completed at least 60% of his passes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Colts are 0-11 OU (-10.4 ppg) since Nov 23, 2014 at home coming off a game with at least 250 passing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 15-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 on the road coming off a loss where they allowed at least 24 points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 0-10 ATS (-8.05 ppg) off a doubledigit road loss in which their opponent had more punts than third downs converted.

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According to reports, Ravens are expected to start Lamar Jackson at quarterback today at home vs. the Bengals. Robert Griffin III is also expected to see some snaps.
Current Pointspread: BAL -6.5
Current Total: 44


As reported last night, Chargers DL Joey Bosa is expected to play today at home against the Broncos (although will likely be on a limited snap count).
Bosa has yet to play a game this season.
Current Pointspread: LAC -7
Current Total: 46.5


Bengals WR A.J. Green has reportedly made the trip with the team and will test his injured toe prior to today's game @ Baltimore.
He is still listed as "doubtful".
Current Pointspread: CIN +6.5
Current Total: 44

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Essentials - Week 11
Tony Mejia

Sunday
Carolina (-4.5/49.5) at Detroit, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Matt Patricia’s Lions have defeated Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers this season. Cam Newton has been reminded of this, as will Jared Goff in two weeks. Those upsets may put a target on the back of a team rebuilding on the run, having traded Golden Tate and entering a three-game homestand that includes Thursday’s Thanksgiving opener against the Bears. Detroit will have a better chance to stop Newton due to DE Ziggy Ansah and CB Darius Slay being available, so Patricia will have most of his chess pieces in play to try and contain an offense looking to rebound from a 52-21 loss to Pittsburgh. Newton is having his finest season since winning MVP in 2015, so Carolina has yet to lose consecutive games. Outside of WR Torrey Smith remaining out, the Panthers are relatively healthy. Detroit will be without DT A’Shawn Robinson, WR Marvin Jones, Jr. and TE Michael Roberts. QB Matthew Stafford has been sacked 16 times over the last two games and will need better protection to help him get the ball to young weapons Kerryon Johnson and Kenny Golladay.

Dallas at Atlanta (-3.5/50), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Cowboys saved their season with a win over the Eagles and have to go out on the road and do it again before moving on to Thursday’s Thanksgiving clash with Washington. Dallas remains without LB Sean Lee, but was able to generate pressure against Philadelphia and will look to try and pick up where the Browns left off in hassling Matt Ryan into mistakes. Offensively, Ezekiel Elliott is playing at a high level and could make life difficult for a Falcons run defense that surrendered a 92-yard TD run to rookie Nick Chubb to swing last week’s upset loss in Cleveland. Atlanta had won three straight prior to the loss, which includes consecutive home games, and Ryan does have his full compliment of receivers to work with against a vulnerable Dallas defense.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-5.5/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Lamar Jackson will get his first NFL start with Joe Flacco legitimately hurt, nursing a hip injury that won’t require surgery. We’ll see if he ever gets his job back. Jackson hasn’t really played the position of quarterback this regular season, executing packages in the red zone but not getting a chance to find a rhythm and truly match wits with a defense, so we’ll see what rust has developed. The Bengals aren’t exactly humming defensively, having fired Teryl Austin after a 51-14 home loss to the Saints. Marvin Lewis will look to frustrate Jackson and will serve as his own defensive coordinator here in a humongous game for both teams. LB Vontaze Burfict may return, but that group will still be shorthanded even if he does go since Nick Vigil and Preston Brown are out. RB Joe Mixon is expected to play through a knee issue that cast legitimate doubt on his availability, while WR A.J. Green is out again. Can Jackson go on the road and keep his team’s realistic playoff hopes alive? It’s very interesting that the Ravens have been bet up as high as a six-point favorite. We’ll see if the public faith in Jackson is rewarded.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-2/51), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Marcus Mariota has looked like a different guy over the past few weeks, apparently getting healthy around the London trip and the bye that followed. He’s got four touchdown passes over the last two games, wins over New England and Dallas where he played almost flawlessly. Given how well the defense has been playing, coming in tops in the NFL in points allowed (16.8), the Titans have emerged as a serious threat to win an AFC South that they trailed by just one game entering this one. Indianapolis avoided slipping to last place in the division by banishing Jacksonville there last weekend and have seen Andrew Luck throw 10 touchdowns against just one pick during its current three-game win streak. He’s thrown for at least three TDs in six straight games, the third-longest such streak in NFL history. The ‘over’ is on a 5-1 run in Colts games, while the under has hit in four of the last five involving Tennessee. At 50.5 points approaching kickoff, this will be the highest total of the season in a game involving the Titans.

Houston (-3/42) at Washington, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Texans lead the AFC South and come off a bye, so we’ll get a good look at their killer instinct here. With a second date with Tennessee on tap next week, Houston can really take some pressure off itself by answering the bell after an extra week to heal and prepare. The time off has allowed DBs Jonathan Joseph (ankle) and Andre Hal (shoulder) to heal up and re-enter the mix. Rookie slot WR Keke Coutee is also back from a hamstring injury. The Texans have won six straight games, riding a defense that ranks seventh-best in points allowed and has excelled throughout the streak. Deshaun Watson has also improved and got an extra week with new acquisition Demariyus Thomas as Houston looks to solve a defense that has keyed Washington’s ascent to the top of the NFC East. Alex Smith leads an offense that hasn’t cracked 20 points in any of their last four games and will again be working with shorthanded with top tackle Trent Williams, guard Shawn Lauvao, RB Chris Thompson and WR Jamison Crowder all sidelined.

Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants (-2.5/53), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This is one of Week 11’s two games featuring teams that have turned their attention to next season already. Still, there’s intrigue in Eli Manning making his last stand before he’s inevitably replaced by Kyle Lauletta and Ryan Fitzpatrick remaining ahead of Jameis Winston on the depth chart. The Bucs have already fired their defensive coordinator and will have offensive coordinator Todd Monken call plays today instead of head coach Dirk Koetter, so they’re in full-on experimental mode as they attempt to fix a red zone attack that failed to produce a touchdown in five trips against the ‘Skins last week. Manning led a fourth-quarter rally in Santa Clara to get past the 49ers on Monday night and will be looking to lead the Giants to back-to-back wins for the first time since December of 2016. He’s facing a depleted defense that is now down their second elite linebacker in Lavonte David, who suffered a knee injury last week and is one of a number of casualties on that side of the ball.

Pittsburgh (-5.5/46.5) at Jacksonville, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Steelers and Jaguars get together for the first time since last season’s divisional playoff shootout that the Jags won 45-42. Ben Roethlisberger threw five touchdown passes in that game and is coming off a five-touchdown effort last Thursday night in Carolina. He’ll be looking to take advantage of a Jaguars secondary that has looked nothing like last year’s elite group this season but does get A.J. Bouye back from a calf injury that has left Patrick Ramsey out on an island, quite literally, without his tag-team partner. The Jags forced seven Roethlisberger turnovers in last season’s two meetings, so this is a game that the future Hall of Famer has certainly had circled on the schedule. Although Le’Veon Bell is officially done, RB James Conner has cleared concussion protocol and will be available for a Steelers offense that is at full strength with the exception of tackle Marcus Gilbert. Pittsburgh owns a five-game winning steak and is intent on revenge, while Jacksonville has dropped five straight and is hoping that Leonard Fournette’s return in a losing cause last week can help spark a resurgence.

Denver at L.A. Chargers (-7/46.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: The Chargers are hoping to have Joey Bosa for the first time this season to help upgrade a defense that started slowly but has come together over the past few weeks as Melvin Ingram has found a rhythm and other injured key cogs played their way into shape. Philip Rivers has been excellent in letting RB Melvin Gordon lead the offense and will have WRs Keenan Allen (hip), Mike Williams (groin) and tight end Antonio Gates (knee) available to him, so an offense that has scored at least 20 points in every game this season will look to solve a Broncos defense that it has lost two in six of eight. The Broncos won’t have LB Brandon Marshall or safety Dymonte Thomas but have cleared DBs Darian Stewart and Bradley Roby to return. A new-look offense relying on young playmakers will have Royce Freeman (ankle) and DaeShawn Hamilton (knee) available and will be looking to make better use of rookie Courtland Sutton, who is stepping into Demariyus Thomas’ shoes.

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SNF - Vikings at Bears

After cashing with the Dallas Cowboys in last week's SNF game, this week we get a NFC North battle for first place in the division. Had I told you at the beginning of the year that a game with those kind of stakes wouldn't include Green Bay, there probably wouldn't have been too many out there that would have believed me. But without question, the Vikings and Bears have been consistently the two best teams in the NFC North this year and do deserve a showcase spot like this.

Granted, it hasn't been smooth sailing for either side this year as the Vikings famously lost big at home against Buffalo as -17 favorites, while Chicago's got a questionable loss vs Miami in Brock Osweiler's first start on their resume as well. But both sides come into SNF playing some very good football currently, so where should your money be going here?

Odds: Chicago (-2.5); Total set at 44.5

This game has already seen some solid action all week on both the side and total as it appears as though the Vikings and 'under' are the popular ways to play this game. Each of those wagers are showing about 70%+ support currently on VegasInsider.com's betting percentages, and because of that action, both numbers have moved those respective ways. It's easy to see why both of those sides are likely, but there is one of those moves I'll be directly against.

A big part of the success both teams have had of late is in large part due to their respective defenses. Both teams rank in the Top 7 of the league in terms of yards allowed per play (Chicago is 3rd, while Minnesota is 7th), and over the last three weeks they rank #1 and #2 in the league in that category.

Both teams come in at allowing less than four yards per play over the past three weeks, and with stat lines like that you always knew the 'under' was going to get plenty of support. Heck, the Vikings even faced the juggernaut New Orleans Saints attack during that three-game stretch, and while Minnesota may have fallen short in that contest, holding down the Saints in any way possible right now is rather impressive.

However, both teams have also faced the Lions and Jets respectively during those three-game stretches and shutting down those offenses hasn't proved to be that hard this season. Don't get me wrong, those numbers are still impressive, but had their recent schedules been even marginally harder, we might not be talking about such impressive defensive numbers for both sides right now.

And yet, it's in large part because of those numbers that the 'under' on this game is the popular side, as the perception of both teams is that they are strong defense-first units that will now have a tough time scoring on one another. After all, each side has been allowing less than four yards per play right.

Nearly all of that was already incorporated into the opening number though, and even with those great defensive numbers of late, Chicago's still 2-1 O/U in their last three games while the Vikings are 1-2 O/U. Only two of those six games in question have finished with fewer than 45 points, and going back even further, we've actually got the Bears on a 5-1 O/U run overall, with Minnesota 3-3 O/U during the same span.

Minnesota is also off their bye week so having two weeks for their offense to draw up different ways of finding success never hurts, and it also means that the Vikings are also in that great post-bye week 'over' scenario that a colleague of mine here at VegasInsider.com outlined at the end of this piece.

The Vikings have also found some consistent offensive rhythm over the past 6+ weeks as they've scored 20 or more points in six straight games – all coming after that embarrassing home loss to the Bills, while Chicago's offense has scored 24 or more in six straight games themselves.

I've long been a believer that when the perception of NFL totals automatically lean the majority one way – ie two defensive teams equating to an 'under' play and two offensive teams equating to an 'over' play (hint for where I'm leaning on the MNF total this week) – that you should really be looking to go against those perceptions if for no other reason than the line is already shaded that perceived way. That means there is already inherent value in going against the grain with those totals plays and it appears as though that's exactly what we've got with the SNF game this week.

Going against the grain is something I prefer to do as is, and with the Vikings on a 4-1 O/U run on the road, 5-1 O/U in their last six against a winning team, and Chicago 7-3 O/U in their last 10 division games, I'm expecting plenty of (relative) points on Sunday night as these two rivals should be able to combine for about 50 points.

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SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PIT at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC +4.0
U 47.0

TB at NYG 01:00 PM
TB +3.0
O 53.5

TEN at IND 01:00 PM
TEN +1.0
O 49.5

DAL at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL -3.5

HOU at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +3.0
U 41.5

CIN at BAL 01:00 PM
CIN +6.5
O 44.0

CAR at DET 01:00 PM
DET +4.0

OAK at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI -4.5
U 41.0

DEN at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -7.5
O 46.5

PHI at NO 04:25 PM
NO -7.5

MIN at CHI 08:20 PM
CHI -2.5
U 44.0

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Texans 23, Redskins 21— 33 years ago Sunday, Joe Theismann broke his leg in a Monday night game; just a gruesome injury. In this game, Alex Smith broke his leg in third quarter, with Redskins down 17-7; Colt McCoy came off bench and led two TD drives, but Houston kicked FG with 7:30 to win the game and improve their record to 7-3.

Skins’ TD that put them up 21-20 in third quarter was first lead change in any Redskin game all season, which is kind of hard to believe. Washington allowed 17 or fewer points in all six of their wins; they’re 0-4 allowing more than 17.

Cowboys 22, Falcons 19— First three quarters of this game, no TD’s, five FG’s, which is very un-Falcon-like. Teams both converted 50%+ of their 3rd down conversions, but they were poor in the red zone.

Dallas is 4-0 when it scores 20+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t; they’re 27-16 vs spread in last 43 games as road underdogs. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 10-17 as a home favorite.

Lions 20, Panthers 19— Carolina hit the left upright with 34-yard FG in 3rd quarter, then missed PAT on TD with 5:13 left to play, so when they scored TD with 1:07 left that made score 20-19, Ron Rivera decided to go for 2…..and that didn’t work either. Panthers are now 6-15-1 vs spread in last 22 games as a road favorite.

Giants 38, Buccaneers 35— These is no excuse for the Bucs being 3-7; they’ve gained 500+ TY in four of their last six games, but they cannot protect the ball. In their last eight games, Tampa Bay has turned ball over 27 times (-25). As the Hall of Fame coach George Allen used to say, “More games are lost than won.”

Bucs benched Fitzpatrick after an awful INT in end zone; Jameis Winston came in and looked like Dan Fouts, completing 12-16 passes for 199 yards and two TD’s, but Manning completed 17-18 passes on the day, as Giants won their second game in a row after a 1-7 start.

Don’t think I’ve seen this before: on their last nine drives, Tampa Bay scored five TD’s but threw four INT’s. All or nothing. They were also stopped on 4th down inside the Giants’ 5-yard line on their first drive of the game.

Ravens 24, Bengals 21— Rookie QB Jackson won his first NFL start, running for 117 yards and throwing for 150 more, playing against a defense that had allowed 500+ yards in their previous three games- Cincy fired their DC last Monday. Bengals lost four of their last five games.

Steelers 20, Jaguars 16— With 2:00 left in 3rd quarter, Jaguars led 16-0; this is a brutal loss for Jags, making them 3-7 and basically ending their season. Jags started three drives in Steelers territory, but scored only three points on those drives. Jaguars passed for only 64 yards.

Steelers’ first 9 drives: 33 plays, 125 yards, zero points, five 3/outs.
Steelers’ last 5 drives: 27 plays, 249 yards, 20 points.

Roethlisberger ran for the winning TD with 0:05 left; Steelers won their last six games.

Seahawks 27, Packers 24— Seattle outrushed Green Bay 173-48; Packers converted only 3-11 third down plays. 46-yard FG Crosby missed when Packers led 7-0 turned out to be painful.

Home teams are now 9-2 in Thursday night games this season.

Colts 38, Titans 10— Tennessee crushed New England LW, so of course they come here and get their butts kicked. Titans’ QB Mariota hurt his elbow near end of first half; Gabbert played 2nd half. Colts have now won 17 of last 20 series games, 10 of last 11 played here. Indy has won four games in a row after a 1-5 start.

In the first half, Titans’ DC, 69-year old Dean Pees was taken to the hospital with “a medical issue.” We wish him well.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 11
November 18, 2018
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Nov. 19.

Kansas City (9-1) at Los Angeles Rams (9-1), 8:15 p.m. This matchup was moved from Mexico City to the LA Coliseum six days before the game because of the poor quality of the field at Azteca Stadium. ... This is the first meeting in NFL history this late in a season between two teams averaging 33 points per game. ... It's the fifth meeting since 1970 between two teams with one or fewer losses in Week 11 or later. ... The Chiefs have scored 353 points, tops in the NFL. The Rams have 335, second in the league. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in yards passing (3,150). Rams QB Jared Goff is second (3,134). ... Chiefs DT Chris Jones has a sack in six straight games. ... Rams RB Todd Gurley leads the NFL in scoring (108 points), yards rushing (988), carries (198), yards from scrimmage (1,390) and touchdowns (17). He has scored a touchdown in 13 consecutive games, extending his own franchise record.

---

STARS

Passing

- Drew Brees, Saints, was 22 for 30 for 363 yards and four touchdowns in New Orleans' 48-7 win over Philadelphia. Brees has 23 games with at least four touchdown passes and zero interceptions, including two this season, surpassing New England's Tom Brady for the most such games by a quarterback in NFL history.

- Andrew Luck, Colts, was 23 for 29 for 297 yards and three touchdowns in Indianapolis' 38-10 win over Tennessee. Luck joined Dan Marino and Aaron Rodgers to become the third player with at least TD passes in his first 80 games.

- Eli Manning, Giants, was 17 for 18 for 231 yards and two touchdowns in the New York Giants' 38-35 win over Tampa Bay. Manning's 94.4 percent completion rate ties Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton (94.4 percent on Nov. 13, 1977) and Craig Morton (94.4 percent on Sept. 27, 1981) for the third highest in a game in NFL history (minimum 15 attempts). Only Alex Smith (94.7 percent on Oct. 29, 2012) and Ryan Tannehill (94.7 percent on Oct. 25, 2015) have had a higher completion rate in a game (minimum 15 attempts).

- Cam Newton, Panthers, was 25 for 37 for 357 yards and three touchdowns and an interception in Carolina's 20-19 loss to Detroit.

---

Rushing

- Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards, Ravens. Jackson, a rookie making his first career start at quarterback, had 27 carries for 117 yards; Edwards had 115 yards and a touchdown and a 2-point conversion in Baltimore's 24-21 win over Cincinnati.

- Saquon Barkley, Giants, had 27 carries for 142 yards and two touchdowns in the New York Giants' 38-35 win over Tampa Bay.

- David Johnson, Cardinals, had 25 carries for 137 yards in Arizona's 23-21 loss to Oakland.

- Mark Ingram, Saints, had 16 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns in New Orleans' 48-7 win over Philadelphia.

- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, had 23carries for 122 yards and a touchdown in Dallas' 22-19 win over Atlanta.

- Peyton Barber, Buccaneers, had 18 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown in Tampa Bay's 38-35 loss to the New York Giants.

---

Receiving

- T.Y. Hilton, Colts, had nine catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns in Indianapolis' 38-10 win over Tennessee.

- Tre'Quan Smith, Saints, had 10 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown in New Orleans' 48-7 win over Philadelphia.

- D.J. Moore, Panthers, had seven catches 157 yards and a touchdown in Carolina's 20-19 loss to Detroit.

- Mike Evans, Buccaneers, had six catches for 120 yards and a touchdown in Tampa Bay's 38-35 loss to the New York Giants.

- Julio Jones, Falcons, had six catches for 118 yards and a touchdown in Atlanta's 22-19 loss to Dallas.

- Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers, Brown had five catches for 117 yards, including a 78-yard touchdown, and Smith-Schuster had eight catches for 104 yards in Pittsburgh's 20-16 win over Jacksonville.

- Kenny Golladay, Lions, had eight catches for 113 yards and a touchdown in Detroit's 20-19 win over Carolina.

---

Special Teams

- Brett Maher, Cowboys, was 3 for 3 on field goals, including a 42-yarder as time expired in Dallas' 22-19 win over Atlanta.

- Daniel Carlson, Raiders, was 3 for 3 on field goals, including a 35-yarder as time expired in Oakland's 23-21 win over Arizona.

- Matt Bryant, Falcons, was 4 for 4 on field goals and added an extra point in Atlanta's 22-19 loss to Dallas. He is 13 of 13 for the season, including four kicks of at least 50 yards.

---

Defense

- Justin Reid, Texans, returned an interception 101 yards for a touchdown in Houston's 23-21 win over Washington. The interception return for a touchdown is tied for the second longest by a rookie in NFL history, trailing Pete Barnum's 103-yard return for the Columbus Tigers in the team's victory over the Canton Bulldogs on Sept. 26, 1926.

- Alec Ogletree, Giants, returned an interception 15 yards for a touchdown in the New York Giants' 38-35 win over Tampa Bay.

- Jalen Ramsey, Jaguars, had two interceptions in Jacksonville's 20-16 loss to Pittsburgh.

- T.J. Watt and Javon Hargrave, Steelers. Watt had sacks and two forced fumbles and Hargrave added two sacks in Pittsburgh's 20-16 win over Jacksonville.

- Chris Banjo, Saints, had two interceptions in New Orleans' 48-7 win over Jacksonville.

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MILESTONES

The Texans (7-3), who held off Washington for a 23-21 victory, became the first team since the 1925 New York Giants to win seven in a row after starting 0-3. ... Ravens rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson had 27 carries for 117 rushing yards in his first career start. The 27 carries were the most by a quarterback since 1970 and 117 yards were the second most by a rookie quarterback since 1970. The most? That's his teammate, Robert Griffin III. RG3 had 138 yards in 2012. ... Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri earned the 210th regular-season win of his career to break George Blanda's record in Indy's 38-10 win over Tennessee.

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STREAKS & STATS

The Saints crushed the Philadelphia Eagles 48-7 for their ninth straight win. It's the worst loss for a defending Super Bowl champion. ... The Colts' Andrew Luck has tied Dan Marino for the third-longest streak of games with at least three passing touchdowns in NFL history (7). Only New England's Tom Brady (10 in 2007) and Peyton Manning (eight in 2004) have longer such streaks. ... Washington's Adrian Peterson ran for two touchdowns against Houston. Peterson's 3- and 7-yard TD runs gave him 105 in his career and moved him past former Redskins star John Riggins into sole possession of sixth, one behind Hall of Famer Jim Brown for fifth. Pittsburgh rallied from a 16-0 deficit for a 20-16 victory for its sixth straight victory. ... The Giants beat the Buccaneers 38-25 for their second consecutive victory, the first time they've won consecutive games since December 2016. The loss was the fourth in a row for the Bucs. ... Von Miller's sack of Philip Rivers in the second quarter gave him 10 for the season, which allowed him to join Reggie White and DeMarcus Ware as the only players with 10 or more sacks in seven of their first eight seasons.

---

WAYNE'S WORLD

Reggie Wayne became the 15th member of the Colts' Ring of Honor during a halftime ceremony where he was surrounded by former teammates including Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James, and NFL Hall of Fame executive Bill Polian, who drafted Wayne in 2001. He played in a franchise-record 211 games and caught 1,070 passes for 14,345 yards and 82 TDs in 14 seasons - all in Indy.

''This (blue) jacket looks pretty damn good on me, thank you,'' Wayne said before jogging to the end zone to thank the fans - as he did for years just before kickoff.

---

SIDELINED

Redskins quarterback Alex Smith broke his right leg (tibia and fibula) on a sack by Kareem Jackson midway through the third quarter against Houston and will require surgery. Smith wasn't the only quarterback hurt: The Titans lost quarterback Marcus Mariota in the final minute of the first half of their blowout loss to the Colts when he reinjured his right elbow. ... The Texans lost both of their starting guards against Washington: Zach Fulton to a shoulder injury on the first drive and Senio Kelemete to an ankle injury in the second quarter. ... The Detroit Lions also suffered a blow on offense when rookie running back Kerryon Johnson hurt his left knee against the Carolina Panthers. He left in the third quarter and didn't return after running for 87 yards on 15 carries. ... In the Giants' win over the Buccaneers, New York defensive lineman Kerry Wynn left in the second half with a concussion. Tampa Bay tight end O.J. Howard left in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury.

---

SPEAKING

''I saw the daylight and I have to hit it. I wasn't going to let anyone stop me.'' - Texans defensive back Justin Reed on his 101-yard interception return for a touchdown in Houston's 23-21 win over Washington.

---

''I just know that we're playing better and I just love to see these guys in here after the game with smiles on their faces.'' - Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. after his team won consecutive games for the first time since December 2016 with a 38-35 victory over Tampa Bay.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 12

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Time (ET) Away Home
12:30 PM Chicago Bears Detroit Lions
4:30 PM Washington Redskins Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM Atlanta Falcons New Orleans Saints

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM New England Patriots New York Jets
1:00 PM New York Giants Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:05 PM Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Miami Dolphins Indianapolis Colts
4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Denver Broncos
8:20 PM Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings

Monday, November 26, 2018

Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Tennessee Titans Houston Texans


**************************************


NFLNovember's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/18/2018 8-9-2 47.06% -9.50
11/15/2018 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
11/12/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/11/2018 9-14-1 39.13% -32.00
11/08/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/05/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/04/2018 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00
11/01/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00

Totals............26-42-1.......38.23%.....-102.00


********************

Best Bets For November

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

11/18/2018..............4 - 4.................-2.00......................2 - 5...............-17.50.............-19.50
11/15/2018..............0 - 0.................-0.00......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-5.50
11/12/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2018..............2 - 5.................-17.50....................2 - 4...............-12.00.............-29.50
11/08/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00
11/05/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................1 - 0...............+5.00..............-0.50
11/04/2018..............3 - 4.................-7.00......................3 - 4...............-7.00...............-14.00
11/01/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00

Totals......................9 -17.................-48.50...................8 - 17...............53.50..............-102.00

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Chiefs at Rams
November 18, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

The Chiefs (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread for only the second time this season as Kansas City held off Arizona at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-14 as 16 ½-point favorites. The Cardinals gave everything the Chiefs could handle as Arizona trailed Kansas City by six points heading into the fourth quarter. Spencer Ware’s three-yard touchdown run early in the fourth pushed the Chiefs to a 12-point lead, but Kansas City couldn’t produce any more offense in final few possessions to result in the non-cover.

Patrick Mahomes threw for fewer than 300 yards for only the second time this season and the first time since Week 1 as the Chiefs’ quarterback posted 249 yards and two touchdown passes. Mahomes didn’t throw an interception for the first time since Week 4, while hooking up with Tyreek Hill on both touchdown tosses. Hill finished with 117 yards on seven catches, as Kansas City won its eighth consecutive regular season game at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Rams (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) rebounded from its only loss of the season by holding off the Seahawks, 36-31 at the L.A. Coliseum. Los Angeles failed to cover against Seattle for the second time this season, as the Rams were laying 10 points last Sunday. The Rams had an opportunity to cash in spite of falling behind 14-7 early as L.A. stormed back to lead 36-24 in the fourth quarter on a Brandin Cooks nine-yard touchdown run.

The Seahawks picked up the cover on a late Russell Wilson touchdown pass, dropping the Rams to 1-6 ATS in the last seven games. Quarterback Jared Goff put together a solid afternoon by throwing for 318 yards and two touchdowns, while MVP candidate Todd Gurley rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown for the Rams. The major concern was Seattle rushing for 273 yards on the Rams’ defense, which had allowed 105 yards on the ground through the first nine games.

MOVING FROM MEXICO

This showdown was originally supposed to take place at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, but the game was moved to the Coliseum due to poor field conditions. Since the Rams are listed as the home team, the game shifted back to Los Angeles according to NFL rules which state if there are any issues at a stadium in international contests, it will be moved to the site of the home team.

ROAD-FIELD ADVANTAGE

Who says the Chiefs only thrive at Arrowhead Stadium? Andy Reid’s squad has covered in all five games away from Kansas City this season, while winning four times. The only loss came in the Week 6 shootout loss at New England, 43-40, but the Chiefs cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs. This is the fourth time this season that Kansas City will be listed as an underdog, as the Chiefs have already won outright against the Chargers and Steelers on the highway.

SERIES HISTORY

The Chiefs have captured each of the last three meetings with the Rams as this is the first matchup between the teams since the team moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles. When these teams were neighbors in Missouri, the Chiefs won six matchups from 1997 through 2014, as Kansas City blew out the Rams in the most recent meeting four seasons ago, 34-7. The Rams last beat the Chiefs in 1994 at Arrowhead Stadium, 16-0 as 14 ½-point underdogs.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Kansas City has won three straight Monday night contests since the start of 2017, including a 27-23 victory at Denver in Week 4 as 3 ½-point favorites. Los Angeles is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after routing Oakland in the opener, 33-13 as a 6 ½-point favorite. The Rams are hosting their first Monday night game since moving to L.A., while the franchise is playing at home on a Monday for the first time since hosting the 49ers in St. Louis in 2014.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson gives his take on this matchup, first on the impact of the dynamic offenses, “The young quarterbacks have both emerged as serious MVP candidates with Mahomes featuring 31 touchdown passes and the 2nd best quarterback rating in the league in his first season as a starter. Goff has only 16 fewer passing yards through 10 games and a higher completion percentage with one less interception. Gurley and Kareem Hunt are both in the top four in rushing on the season with Gurley only 12 yards short of 1,000 already this season while Hill and Cooks have been among the league’s top receivers.”

From a totals perspective, this sky-high number may be hard to eclipse, but it’s not a crazy notion that the OVER can cash according to Nelson, “Monday’s game will feature perhaps the highest total in NFL history priced at 63. Since 1980, only two NFL games have closed with a total of 60 or higher with the last instance being the Saints playoff win over the Lions, 45-28 in January of 2012 with a total of 60. A Rams/49ers game in 2000 featured a total of 62, staying just UNDER in a 34-24 Rams win at Candlestick. Since 2000, 12 games have closed with a total of 58 or higher with the OVER hitting in 10 of those 12 games.

GAME PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 325 ½ (-110)
UNDER 325 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 2 ½ (-150)
UNDER 2 ½ (+130)

Total Rushing Yards – Kareem Hunt
OVER 85 ½ (-110)
UNDER 85 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill
OVER 90 ½ (-110)
UNDER 90 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Travis Kelce
OVER 87 ½ (-110)
UNDER 87 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Jared Goff
OVER 320 ½ (-110)
UNDER 320 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Jared Goff
OVER 2 ½ (-110)
UNDER 2 ½ (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – Todd Gurley
OVER 108 ½ (-110)
UNDER 108 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Brandin Cooks
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Robert Woods
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

When the line first opened last Sunday, the Rams were listed as one-point favorites assuming the game was going to be played in Mexico City. Now that the contest has moved to Los Angeles, the Rams have been vaulted to a three-point favorite and are even at 3 ½ at several books. The total is by far the highest in the NFL this season at 63 as the Rams and Chiefs have each eclipsed this number four times in 2018.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Best Bet
November 16, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 11 MNF Betting Preview
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams

It's not often that the MNF matchup is the best one of the week anymore with SNF being able to flex games in and such, but when you've got two teams who are tied at 9-1 SU for the best record in the entire NFL playing under the bright MNF lights, that's definitely the case.

This Chiefs/Rams game has been looked ahead to by many for weeks now as both offenses have been among the best in the league this year since Week 1 and the talk was always about how high this total would end up being. With the game originally slated for Mexico City there were neutral field scenarios to take into consideration, but with the game moved back to L.A. all those concerns are out the window. We do have a record high for an NFL total though, but is attacking that record number (high or low) the best way to bet this game?

YouWager.eu Odds: L.A. Rams (-3.5); Total set at 63

There are a boatload of superlatives I could sit here and list off when describing what we've seen from the Chiefs and Rams offenses this year, but if you are betting on NFL games, you are already well aware of how great both units have been.

A record high total north of 60 was definitely warranted to be put out there for this matchup, but in order to cash an 'over' play on a number that high, you really need everything to run smoothly. That means no real long drives resulting in FG's or worse, a few quick scores, no red zone turnovers, and to basically average 17 points per quarter.

That's definitely a lot to ask, even in today's higher scoring NFL, and when you consider that both sides have to have some inkling that their best path to a win is by keeping the opposing offense on the sidelines for as much as possible, an 'over' play may also be working against the general football strategy both teams decide to employ.

Now over the course of 125 total plays or so (L.A. averages 64.8 plays/game with KC coming in at 60.9/game) there's a lot more opportunities for things to go wrong rather than right, and on that basis alone, the 'under' is the only way I'd look on the total here. But then how confident can you really be backing an 'under' with these two great offenses going back and forth with one another?

And do you really want to be sweating every play down to the end and relying on two very suspect defenses to get key stops down the stretch? It's what makes this total very intriguing to watch, and one I'll be ultimately sitting on the sidelines with. However, in terms of the side, this is a very short number for a very good Rams team despite many pointing to their 1-6 ATS run coming in.

Only once during this poor ATS run for L.A. have they been favored by less than a TD and that was on the road in New Orleans. The Saints and Chiefs are very comparable in both record and offensive skills, but L.A. is at home this time around and are still a perfect 5-0 SU at home. Of all their nine SU wins this year, only three of them have come by three or less points, and two of those were away from the L.A. Coliseum.

Obviously buying off the hook at -3.5 is the best way to back the Rams here, but with an average margin of victory in home games coming in at 12 points per game, having LA run away with this contest is not out of the picture either.

Then when you look at the overall picture in the betting markets for this game and seen a huge chunk of money (85%+ on the ML and ATS) backing the Kansas City Chiefs here, it's hard not to think that many are basing their Chiefs support on either KC's better overall ATS record and/or the notion that they've been burned by backing the Rams a few times already this year.

That's a trap many that many fall into when handicapping heavily based on teams and not numbers, and while it's easy to point out that KC was in a similar position when they went to New England a few weeks back (+3.5 underdogs and lost 43-40), do you really want to tempt that again?

KC was down by four points or more for most of that entire game (largest deficit was 15), and even were down seven with a little over three minutes left. Overall ATS results don't always tell the full story, so to say “I've got to take the points with KC here because they've got the better ATS record of the two” or “can't back the Rams because they cost me in Week X” is missing the entire point.

Public underdogs are not ones that historically have a good ATS track record in this league, and for as high profile of a matchup as this is (MNF, two best teams), there really isn't a situation that gives off a more “public underdog” role than the one the Chiefs are in this week.

Give me the home side without that nasty hook.

Odds per - YouWager.eu

Best Bet: L.A. Rams -3 (-125)

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

KC at LAR 08:15 PM

LAR -3.5

U 63.0

[StarDust Bum]

Rams outlast Chiefs 54-51 in high-octane offensive showcase
November 19, 2018
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LOS ANGELES (AP) Jared Goff threw a 40-yard touchdown pass to Gerald Everett for the go-ahead score with 1:49 to play, and the Los Angeles Rams outlasted the Kansas City Chiefs for a 54-51 victory on Monday night in a high-octane NFL offensive showdown that somehow surpassed the hype.

Patrick Mahomes passed for a career-high 478 yards with six touchdown passes in his latest jaw-dropping effort for the Chiefs (9-2), but he also threw two interceptions in the final 1:18 as the Rams (10-1) claimed the highest-scoring Monday night game ever played and the first NFL game with two 50-point performances.

Goff passed for 413 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for another score, while Marcus Peters and Lamarcus Joyner came up with late interceptions as the Rams hung on to win a game featuring 14 touchdowns.

The highest-scoring game in the league this season was an offensive fantasia with 1,001 combined yards and ingenious scheming from mastermind coaches Andy Reid and Sean McVay - along with three defensive touchdowns and 21 combined penalties.

''It was a whirlwind,'' McVay said. ''I feel like I might need a couple of beverages to relax tonight, but it was great. This is what you love so much about the game.''

The Coliseum's first Monday night game since 1985 was worth the wait - particularly for the thousands of first responders and families who received free tickets to the game while recovering from the dual tragedies of wildfires and a mass shooting in Thousand Oaks.

If this video-game-like spectacle turns out to be a Super Bowl preview, Atlanta should prepare for an All-Madden-level show from two of the most exciting teams in the league.

''It was one of the most competitive games I've been a part of,'' McVay said. ''It was just a competitive game with a lot of high-caliber football in all three phases.''

Rams linebacker Samson Ebukam returned a fumble and an interception for the first two TDs of his NFL career, while Kansas City's Allen Bailey returned Goff's fumble for a go-ahead touchdown early in the fourth quarter.

The second half was an extended thriller featuring 59 combined points, but the Rams made slightly more big plays down the stretch.

''We can learn from this,'' Reid said. ''We can't give up 21 points on turnovers. Have to take care of the football. We created some turnovers and points, (but had) too many penalties. We'll heal up and get set to go for stretch run.''

After Goff led a 75-yard scoring drive in 89 seconds for the go-ahead TD to Everett, Peters - the former Pro Bowl cornerback traded by Kansas City to Los Angeles last winter - intercepted Mahomes' underthrown ball near midfield with 1:18 to play.

The Rams only managed to get 14 seconds off the clock on their next three plays, and the Coliseum roiled in anticipation of a big finish by Mahomes. But the Chiefs were pushed back to their 13 with 50 seconds left thanks to a booming punt by Johnny Hekker, and Joyner intercepted Mahomes' final desperate heave with 13 seconds left.

''It was a 16-round fight,'' Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman said. ''You're talking about a Mike Tyson-Lennox Lewis type of fight. Two great teams. Two great opponents. Two great coaches.''

This game has loomed in capital letters on the NFL's regular season schedule ever since these teams confirmed their status as offensive powerhouses in September. The Rams and Chiefs are the league's biggest favorites along with New Orleans and New England - the teams responsible for the only other losses by Los Angeles and Kansas City this season.

''It's always fun to play against real good teams,'' Mahomes said. ''You get to go out there and have fun ... (but) it's the same as when we played New England. You can't make mistakes against great teams. You need to limit your mistakes, but be aggressive.''

Before both offensive powerhouses hit their bye weeks ahead of the regular-season stretch run, they both demonstrated the full depth of their talents for a prime-time audience.

And for all the offensive brilliance on display, both defenses made game-changing plays as well.

Aaron Donald forced two fumbles while sacking Mahomes, and Ebukam returned the first for a TD in the second quarter. The Rams' unsung outside linebacker then made a spectacular one-armed interception at the line of scrimmage in the third quarter before returning it 25 yards for a score, powering over Mahomes to reach the end zone.

A raucous crowd packed the venerable Coliseum just six days after the NFL moved the game from Mexico City to Los Angeles due to poor field conditions at Azteca Stadium.

The first half was every bit as entertaining as expected, with two high-level offenses immediately trading long drives and quick-strike TD plays. The teams combined for 462 yards before halftime, and the only things slowing down the Chiefs were penalties - eight in the first quarter alone.

Los Angeles led early until Bailey swung the momentum when he sacked Goff, forcing and recovering the quarterback's first lost fumble of the season.

Donald then made a massive play of his own, swatting the ball out of Mahomes' hand for Ebukam's scoop-and-score TD just 1:50 before halftime.

Donald made his second strip-sack of Mahomes shortly after halftime, and Goff scrambled for the third rushing TD of his career moments later.

INJURIES

Chiefs: WR Sammy Watkins had one catch for 4 yards against his former team after missing last week's game with a foot injury.

Rams: CB Troy Hill, WR Brandin Cooks and Peters all went to the locker room early in the second half with cramps. They all returned.

UP NEXT

Chiefs: Bye week, followed by a trip to Oakland on Dec. 2.

Rams: Bye week, followed by a trip to Detroit on Dec. 2.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 12

Thursday, November 22, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
12:30 PM Chicago Bears Detroit Lions
4:30 PM Washington Redskins Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM Atlanta Falcons New Orleans Saints

Sunday, November 25, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM New England Patriots New York Jets
1:00 PM New York Giants Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:05 PM Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Miami Dolphins Indianapolis Colts
4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Denver Broncos
8:20 PM Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings

Monday, November 26, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Tennessee Titans Houston Texans


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NFLNovember's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/19/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/18/2018 8-9-2 47.06% -9.50
11/15/2018 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
11/12/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/11/2018 9-14-1 39.13% -32.00
11/08/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/05/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/04/2018 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00
11/01/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00

Totals............26-44-1.......37.14%.....-112.50


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Best Bets For November

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

11/19/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/18/2018..............4 - 4.................-2.00......................2 - 5...............-17.50............-19.50
11/15/2018..............0 - 0.................-0.00......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-5.50
11/12/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2018..............2 - 5.................-17.50....................2 - 4...............-12.00.............-29.50
11/08/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00
11/05/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................1 - 0...............+5.00..............-0.50
11/04/2018..............3 - 4.................-7.00......................3 - 4...............-7.00...............-14.00
11/01/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00

Totals......................9 -18.................-54.00....................8 - 18...............-59.00............-113.00