Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at DET 12:30 PM
DET +3.0
U 43.0

WAS at DAL 04:30 PM
DAL -7.0
U 41.0

ATL at NO 08:20 PM
ATL +13.0
U 60.0

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Bears earn 23-16 road win over Lions
November 22, 2018
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DETROIT (AP) Chase Daniel outplayed Matthew Stafford, proving an NFL journeyman can beat one of the highest-paid players in the league.

Daniel threw a career-high two touchdowns to keep the Chicago Bears rolling with a 23-16 win over the Detroit Lions on Thursday, filling in very well for injured quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.

''You don't know when these opportunities will come,'' the 32-year-old Daniel said after making the third start of his career and first in nearly four years. ''You just have to make the most of them.''

He did.

Daniel finished 27 of 37 for 230 yards, setting career highs in each category. He threw a go-ahead, 10-yard touchdown pass to Taquan Mizzell in the second quarter and a 14-yard pass to Tarik Cohen in the fourth to give Chicago the lead again at 16-13.

It was quite a performance for Daniel, a player who has been used sparingly since the former Missouri star entered the league in 2010. He barely played for New Orleans, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Chicago, but gained respect from coaches and players for his preparation.

''Everyone in this locker room knew what he was going to do, and he didn't let us down,'' Mizzell said. ''People forget how long he's been in the NFL and how much talent he has. They talk about the number of games he's started, but the people that practice with him every day knew that he was going to give us a chance to win this game.''

And unlike Stafford, Daniel didn't make any costly mistakes.

Stafford was 28 of 38 for 236 yards with two interceptions late in the fourth, dooming Detroit's chances to win. The Lions drafted Stafford No. 1 overall in 2009 and gave him a $135 million, five-year extension last year.

The NFC North-leading Bears (8-3) sealed their fifth straight victory with Kyle Fuller's interception in the end zone with 1:07 left.

Chicago broke a 16-16 tie on Eddie Jackson's 41-yard pick-6 with six minutes remaining. The safety stepped in front of a pass in the flat intended for tight end Michael Roberts, taking advantage of the fact that Stafford didn't look at another target as he dropped back.

''Got to see (Jackson) a little better than I did,'' Stafford said.

Jackson, a 2017 fourth-round pick, has turned two of his four interceptions into scores this season and has five total touchdowns in his career.

''He's had an unbelievable season so far, one that I don't know that I've seen,'' Chicago coach Matt Nagy said.

Jackson said simply picking off passes is not enough for his team, which has scored five times off interceptions this season.

''We are always thinking about putting points on the board,'' he said. ''It is about attacking.''

The Lions drove to the Bears 11 on their last possession, but couldn't score because Stafford's pass to Roberts was picked off by Fuller.

Detroit (4-7) has lost four of five, plummeting to last place in the division.

''We're not playing good football,'' running back LeGarrette Blount said.

The Lions did start relatively well, becoming the first team to lead Chicago in a month when Blount ran for his first of two touchdowns early in the second quarter. Blount had a season-high 88 yards rushing.

The Bears, though, were able to come back and go ahead thanks to a mistake-free quarterback and their defense that leads the NFL with 29 takeaways, including 20 interceptions.

''Our defense stepped up on the last two drives with takeaways and that's why they're the best in the league,'' Daniel said.

FITTING FUN

The Bears came up with some creative ways to celebrate two touchdowns.

Cohen went down to his side just beyond the end zone, putting his hands under his head as if he was taking a nap like many Americans do on Thanksgiving. After Fuller's interception, Prince Amukamara held the football as if it was a microphone and his teammates played the role of backup dancers and fans in a nod to Motown .

''It's a fun time,'' Nagy said. ''That's who we are right now. Guys are wanting to outdance each other.''

INJURY REPORT

Bears: RB Benny Cunningham (ankle) left the game in the first half. Amukamara was evaluated on the sideline by the team's medical staff in the second half and returned.

Trubisky was inactive after being listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury. Nagy said it is a short-term injury, but he wouldn't say when the No. 2 pick overall from the 2017 draft will return.

''It's a day-to-day thing with him,'' Nagy said.

Lions: Rookie RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) and WR Marvin Jones (knee) were inactive with injuries. C Graham Glasgow left the game briefly with an injury in the fourth quarter.

UP NEXT

Bears: Visit New York Giants (3-7) on Dec. 2, giving Chicago a long break.

Lions: Host Los Angeles Rams (10-1) on Dec. 2.


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McCoy, back home, loses in 1st start for Redskins since '14
November 22, 2018
By The Associated Press

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) Colt McCoy still hasn't had a single rep in practice with Washington's first-team offense this season. That will finally come after his first NFL start in nearly four years.

After Alex Smith's gruesome leg injury only four days earlier, and a short week to prepare for a Thanksgiving Day game in his home state, McCoy threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns Thursday. But he also tossed three interceptions in a 31-23 loss at Dallas that let the Cowboys tie the Redskins for the NFC East lead.

''Just sort of a freak week, with that happening to Alex, short week, on the road, Texas, where I played college ball,'' McCoy said. ''There were some emotions, but I just did my best to tune those out and played ball. Ultimately, I made some mistakes I wish I had back.''

The Redskins (6-5) had a 13-10 lead after McCoy threw his second TD pass, a 10-yarder to Trey Quinn in the third quarter.

But that lead was gone after Dak Prescott's touchdown passes of 40 and 90 yards to Amari Cooper in a span of less than five minutes later in the period.

Weeks before his previous start in December 2014, McCoy's last NFL victory came in another road game against the Cowboys - a 20-17 overtime win on Oct. 27, 2014, when he was 25-of-30 passing for 299 yards. In his only other previous game at AT&T Stadium, McCoy was the quarterback for Texas in a win over Nebraska in the 2009 Big 12 championship game.

''He still has not had one rep in practice with the first team,'' Redskins coach Jay Gruden said. ''All that being said, he made some poor decisions obviously. But he made some incredible plays, some incredible throws I think we can build off.''

The Redskins and McCoy have some extra time to get ready for their next game, a week from Monday at Philadelphia.

''I think it'll help. I think it'll help me, but I think it will help everybody,'' McCoy said.

Now in his fifth season as Washington's backup quarterback, McCoy had only appeared in four games for the Redskins before Thursday. That included replacing Smith in the third quarter of Sunday's 23-21 loss to Houston. A potential winning drive stalled near midfield, and Dustin Hopkins' 63-yard field goal try fell short with 3 seconds left.

McCoy looked as if he hadn't started a game in a long time early against the Cowboys, throwing into double coverage on his first play. He fumbled while trying to scramble on his third, but Washington recovered.

But McCoy settled in with a couple of third-down passes to Jordan Reed to keep drives going, then hit Vernon Davis in stride on a 53-yard touchdown - the longest Washington completion of the season - for a 7-7 tie.

''I felt like he did a great job,'' Redskins running back Adrian Peterson said. ''We didn't have any live action this week in practice, so for him to come out and perform the way that he performed, I tip my hat off to him.''

Gruden said the Redskins didn't have to change how they called plays and should be better with the upcoming practice - and McCoy getting first-team snaps in practice for the first time since summer workouts.

''Colt pretty much handled all the formations, all the tempos, all the run checks,'' Gruden said. ''I don't think there were any problem areas with communication.''


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Saints win 10th straight, eliminate Falcons in NFC South
November 22, 2018
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NEW ORLEANS (AP) Drew Brees made Atlanta pay for losing track of his inexperienced receivers, and New Orleans' defense halted several promising Falcons drives with forced fumbles they could not afford.

Tommylee Lewis and Austin Carr each caught his second career touchdown pass, rookie tight end Dan Arnold and rookie receiver Keith Kirkwood each grabbed their first, and the Saints won their 10th straight game with a 31-17 victory Thursday night that eliminated Atlanta from contention in the NFC South.

All four players entered the NFL as undrafted free agents within the past three years.

''I love that stat,'' Brees said. ''That's one of my favorite ones.''

They also had combined for zero touchdowns this season before Carr caught the first of his career last Sunday.

''It says a lot about taking advantage of the opportunity,'' Brees said. ''It's fun to watch them grow and gain confidence. We're building chemistry, which typically takes time, right? But they've been thrust into this role.''

Meanwhile, the Falcons (4-7) lost three fumbles inside the Saints 20 - tough for any team to overcome against streaking New Orleans (10-1) this season.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan was stripped by safety Marcus Williams on a third-and-2 from the Saints 3 and Williams recovered to end Atlanta's opening drive. Julio Jones was stripped by linebacker Alex Anzalone after a catch on the New Orleans 17, and safety Vonn Bell recovered in the final minute of the second quarter to preserve a 17-3 lead going into halftime.

New Orleans' defense, which had a season-high six sacks, continued to come up with big plays in the second half. Anzalone broke up a fourth-down pass in the third quarter and linebacker A.J. Klein intercepted a pass tipped by defensive tackle Tyeler Davison in the fourth.

''I do love the way that we played today,'' said defensive end Cameron Jordan, who had two sacks. ''I do love the four turnovers. I do love the sacks. I do love the pressures. I do love the quarterback hits. For all terms and purposes, we had our Thanksgiving.''

Klein's interception gave the Saints possession on the Atlanta 22, setting up Kirkwood's diving 4-yard TD catch.

With about four minutes left, cornerback Marshon Lattimore stripped Calvin Ridley on the Saints 1 after a 29-yard completion that looked as though it would end in a touchdown. Defensive back Eli Apple recovered that one.

''When you have one turnover (in the red zone), it feels like a lot,'' Falcons coach Dan Quinn said. ''We had three down there and that was the real story of the game.''

KEY STATS

Ryan was under pressure all night from a Saints defense that was bolstered by the return of first-round draft choice Marcus Davenport from a toe injury that sidelined him for three games. Marcus Williams, P.J. Williams, Sheldon Rankins and Demario Davis each had a sack.

Ryan finished 35 of 47 for 377 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. But little came easy. His first TD pass, to Ridley, came on fourth down from the 2 late in the third quarter.

Atlanta rushed for just 26 yards. New Orleans finished with 150, led by Alvin Kamara's 89 and Mark Ingram's 52.

Statistically, Brees did not have one of his more impressive games, completing 15 of 22 passes for 171 yards with his second interception of the season. The pick was snagged by Damontae Kazee, his NFL-leading sixth this year.

NEW TARGETS

Brees' ability to play to the strengths of unheralded receivers allowed the Saints to cash in on scoring opportunities. A week earlier, he found rookie Tre'Quan Smith 10 times for 157 yards and a TD, but Smith was ruled out against Atlanta with a foot injury. Another receiver, Ted Ginn Jr., has been out with a knee injury since Week 5.

Lewis, a third-year pro, was in his first game back after nine weeks on injured reserve and had not caught a pass all season before getting wide open for his 28-yard grab that made it 7-0. Carr is a second-year pro who played in only one game without a catch as a rookie. He, too, was wide open after Falcons defenders bit on a fake to Ingram. Kirkwood made his NFL debut three games ago, when Arnold had his first career catch.

''Obviously, Drew is someone who is very confident in the preparation, confident in players around him. There's a lot that goes into that,'' Saints coach Sean Payton said. ''I'm excited for those guys that got opportunities.''

DIRE STRAITS

The Falcons' dimming playoff hopes hang on catching up in the wild-card race, and they trail Minnesota (5-4-1) by two games for the last spot.

''It's rough right now for us. You don't want guys to quit,'' Jones said. ''This is the time you get to see what guys are really like.''

INJURIES

Falcons linebacker Kemal Ishmael was helped off the field in the third quarter after a punt.

UP NEXT

Falcons host Baltimore Dec. 2.

Saints visit Dallas on Thursday night.

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NFLNovember's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/22/2018 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
11/19/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/18/2018 8-9-2 47.06% -9.50
11/15/2018 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
11/12/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/11/2018 9-14-1 39.13% -32.00
11/08/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/05/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/04/2018 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00
11/01/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00

Totals............29-47-1.......38.15%.....-114.00


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Best Bets For November

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

11/22/2018..............1 - 2.................-6.00......................2 - 1...............+4.50.............-1.50
11/19/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/18/2018..............4 - 4.................-2.00......................2 - 5...............-17.50............-19.50
11/15/2018..............0 - 0.................-0.00......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-5.50
11/12/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2018..............2 - 5.................-17.50....................2 - 4...............-12.00.............-29.50
11/08/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00
11/05/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................1 - 0...............+5.00..............-0.50
11/04/2018..............3 - 4.................-7.00......................3 - 4...............-7.00...............-14.00
11/01/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00

Totals...................10 -20.................-60.00....................10 - 189...........-54.50............-114.50

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Sunday’s 6-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 12 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Patriots -9.5 (1,007)

2) Giants +6 (902)

3) Steelers -3 (837)

4) Packers +3.5 (721)

5) Panthers -3.5 (691)

6) Colts -7.5 (683)

Season record: 35-28-3

Quote of the Day
“They slowly devastated us throughout the game. Knowing all the yards they were putting up and how easily they were scoring, it was tough. It was very tough. They completely beat us everywhere. Run game, pass game, everyone is to blame.”
Michigan safety Tyree Kinnel

Sunday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Nick Saban used to coach?

Saturday’s quiz
Mike Leach has been head coach at Washington State and Texas Tech.

Friday’s quiz
Wade Phillips was coach of the Dallas Cowboys before Jason Garrett.

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Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

13) Ohio State 62, Michigan 39
— Rough day for the Wolverines, the most points they’ve ever allowed in a non-OT game.
— Michigan has now lost its last nine visits to Columbus.
— Urban Meyer is 7-0 SU as an underdog with the Buckeyes.
— Ohio State had four TD plays of 24+ yards; they also blocked a punt for a TD.
— Michigan QB Patterson got hurt late in game; check status for their bowl game.

Who does this promote to the #4 spot nationally? Oklahoma? Ohio State? Georgia? Oklahoma is 108th in country in yardage defense, giving up 449 yards per game. Oy.

12) Texas A&M 74, LSU 72, 7 OT’s— Fifth 7-OT game in history, highest scoring game in I-A history. I actually felt bad that someone had to lose— kids were all trying so hard.

Aggies ended a 7-game losing streak to LSU.

Plays run: Texas A&M 107, LSU 90. By way of comparison, in the Rams’ 54-51 win over the Chiefs Monday night, plays run were: Rams 75, Chiefs 69

11) Arizona State 41, Arizona 40— Wildcats missed a 45-yard FG with 0:13 left; the kid had gone 4-4 on FG’s before that, but now Arizona doesn’t go bowling.

This was first time since 2007 that ASU won a game after trailing by 19+ points.

10) Purdue 28, Indiana 21— Boilermakers are bowl eligible, Hoosiers aren’t. Question becomes this for Purdue; will coach Brohm still be their coach for the bowl game, or will have bolted to Louisville by then? It is a fair question.

9) Baylor 35, Texas Tech 24— Bears are 6-6 and bowl eligible; Texas Tech is 5-7 and may be looking for a new head coach. Baylor coach Matt Rhule won at Temple, which says a lot; he is a very good coach.

Baylor was 32-7 from 2013-15, so the fanbase was getting spoiled before off-field issues sent the Bears into a tailspin. Rhule has pulled them out of the tailspin.

8) Florida 41, Florida State 14— Seminoles finish 5-7, their first losing season since 1976, the first time they’re not going bowling since 1981. Over last 11 years, FSU is 1-6 vs spread when they’re a home underdog.

7) Upsets of the Week:
— Charlotte (+17) 24, Florida Atlantic 21
— UNLV (+13.5) 34, Nevada 29
— Wake Forest (+12.5) 59, Duke 7
— Minnesota (+11) 37, Wisconsin 15
— Western Kentucky (+10.5) 30, Louisiana Tech 15
— Rice (+7.5) 27, Old Dominion 13
— Syracuse (+7) 42, Boston College 21
— Western Michigan (+6.5) 28, Northern Illinois 21

6) NC State 34, North Carolina 28 OT— A fracas broke out right after the Wolfpack scored the game-winning TD. Watching a replay of it, the funny thing is that there are no officials in the picture at all- they must have bolted to the locker room as soon as the kid crossed the goal line.

Tar Heels finish a putrid season 2-9, which started with a lot of their players being suspended for selling the free Jordan Brand stuff they get from the school.

5) Southern Mississippi 39, UTEP 7— Eagles are the 78th I-A team to clinch at least a 6-6 record, so with 39 bowl games, there will be no 5-7 teams headed to bowls this season.

Tulane 29, Navy 28— Congrats to the Green Wave on going bowling for first time since 2013.

4) Central Michigan fired football coach John Bonamego this week, ending a cruddy year for the Chippewas. Earlier this season, Paulette Bonamego, the coach’s wife, was banned from Kelly/Shorts Stadium following an October 13 confrontation with CMU play-by-play broadcaster Don Chiodo in the press box.

Losing is often as hard on the coach’s family as it is on the coach.

3) Washington 28, Washington State 15— Huskies win Apple Cup for sixth year in a row, and wins a spot in next weekend’s Pac-12 title game.

2) University of Albany was supposed to be one of the best basketball teams in America East this winter, but both their returning senior guards bolted as graduate transfers, one to Villanova, one to Florida State. The grass always looks greener on someone else’s lawn.

As luck would have it, Villanova-Florida State play today in finals of the AdvoCare tournament at DisneyWorld in Orlando. Neither kid starts for his new team.

1) Best wishes to NFL legend Mike Ditka 79, who had a mild heart attack in Florida this week. Get well soon, coach.

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Total Talk - Week 12
Chris David

Week 11 Recap

The back and forth results in the totals market kept rolling along in Week 11 as the ‘over’ produced a 7-6 mark. The Sunday Night Football matchup once again bailed out ‘over’ (44) bettors as the Vikings and Bears combined for 28 points in the fourth quarter in Chicago’s 25-20 win over Minnesota. On the season, the high side holds a slight edge (81-80).

2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-6 6-7 7-5-1

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 81-80 83-78 75-81-5

2018 Results - Other
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 11 3-0 2-2 1-3 0-0

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 26-18 22-26 17-13 7-2

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Oakland at Baltimore: 43 ½ to 42
Cleveland at Cincinnati: 48 to 46 ½
Tennessee at Houston: 43 to 41 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Under 95%
Arizona at L.A. Chargers: Under 87%
Miami at Indianapolis: Over 84%
Green Bay at Minnesota: Under 73%
San Francisco at Tampa Bay: Under 72%

Divisional Matchups

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the three divisional matchups on Thanksgiving and it could’ve been a clean sweep if Dallas wide receiver Amari Cooper doesn’t put on a show in the third quarter against Washington. Five more of these games left, two of them under the lights.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: The ‘over’ has cashed in six straight games between the pair, which includes the first meeting this season when Philadelphia captured a 34-13 road win over New York. That total closed 45 ½ and this week’s number is a tad higher (47). The Giants offense (27, 38) has helped cash the ‘over’ in their last two games and their overall defensive numbers (26.3 PPG) are still suspect. Since the aforementioned win over New York in Week 6, the Birds have dropped three of four and the offense (17 PPG) has been very pedestrian. Philadelphia’s defense (19.8 PPG) has been better at home and that production has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1. However, that Philadelphia unit has taken some serious knocks especially in the secondary.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Bengals (-2.5) have won seven straight games versus the Browns in this rivalry but the oddsmakers are expecting a tight matchup on Sunday. This will be the first meeting between the pair this season and the total (2-2) has been back and forth the last two years. However, the two games in Cincinnati went ‘over’ while the ‘under’ connected in both games at Cleveland. The Browns are playing with rest (see below) and they’ll be facing a Bengals defense (31.2 PPG) that is ranked 31st in scoring.

New England at N.Y. Jets: This is also the first encounter of the season in this series, which has watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight games. The Jets are going with Josh McCown at QB again and he couldn’t do anything in their 41-10 home loss to the Bills in Week 10. Including that result, New York is averaging 10.8 PPG in its last four games (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS). New England also scored 10 points in Week 10, when it was humbled 34-10 at Tennessee. That’s been a common theme for the Patriots this season as the team is averaging 20.6 PPG away from home and that’s contributed to a 3-2 ‘under’ record.

Green Bay at Minnesota: (See Below)

Tennessee at Houston: (See Below)

Coast to Coast

Looking above in the weekly results table, you’ll see an ‘other’ category listed as Coast to Coast. I always like to keep an eye on the travel factor, and for me that revolves around six clubs and five of them are in the Pacific Time Zone. I also include Arizona, who doesn’t observe daylight saving time. Depending on how the NFL schedule works out, each of the six teams face at least three of these situations and sometimes four.

You often hear pundits say playing the 1:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. ET) game is a ‘bitch’ for these West Coast clubs but that narrative has been hit or miss. I suggest you keep it mind and if it gives confidence to your lean, then use it accordingly. I bring the category up in Week 12 because three teams from the West Coast are visiting the East Coast on Sunday and all of them will be playing the dreaded early afternoon games.

Oakland at Baltimore
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Seattle at Carolina

For total purposes, the ‘over’ has gone 7-2 in these games this season. Those results include teams from the Eastern Time Zone playing in the Pacific and vice versa. Here’s a quick snap shot of my tally below per team with results.

Arizona (Under-Was)
Oakland (Over-Mia, Over-Cle, Over-Ind)
L.A. Chargers (Over-Buf, Over-Cle)
L.A. Rams (None yet, but three in a row from Week 13 through Week 15)
San Francisco (Over-Det, Over-NYG)
Seattle (Under-Det)

For side bettors, make a note the above West Coast clubs are 3-1 this season when traveling East.

Bye Bye Rust

Teams playing with rest in Week 11 went 3-1 and the ‘over’ went 3-1 in their games as well. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 17-7 (71%) in games with at least one team playing on rest. The offensive units weren’t as sharp last week (24, 20, 23, 23) but even with those results, clubs with rest are averaging 25.3 PPG this season. We’ve got six teams playing off the ‘bye’ this week and then only two more teams (Chiefs, Rams) will be playing with rest after this go ‘round.

Jacksonville at Buffalo
Cleveland at Cincinnati
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
New England at N.Y. Jets
Miami at Indianapolis

Under the Lights

Week 11 watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 in primetime games and that was the second straight week that all tickets went to the high side. Heading into the weekend games, the ‘over’ sits at 19-16 and that includes the clear-cut ‘under’ ticket this past Thursday between the Falcons and Saints.

Primetime Total Results (O/U): TNF (8-4), SNF (4-7), MNF (7-5)

Green Bay at Minnesota: These teams played to a 29-29 tie in Week 2 and while the ‘over’ (45) looked like the right side, this was a 20-7 game heading into the fourth quarter. Prior to that result, the ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the previous seven meetings and that includes a run of four straight games played at Minnesota. The Vikings have struggled offensively at home (20.2 PPG) but fortunately the defense (19.8 PPG) has been sound and that’s led to a 4-1 ‘under’ mark. Expecting Green Bay to get going on offense away from home (21.6 PPG) seems like a long shot after what we’ve seen from the team so far this season.

Tennessee at Houston: This is the second lowest total (41 ½) on the board for Week 12 and you can see why when you look at the defensive scoring numbers for both the Titans (18.9 PPG) and Houston (20.5 PPG). In the first meeting between the clubs in Week 2, the Titans built an early 14-0 lead on a couple big plays and held on for a 20-17 home win in a game that was statistically dominated by the Texans. QB Marcus Mariota didn’t play for Tennessee in that game and while he’s banged up again, he’s expected to go Monday. In the last six games played at NRG Stadium in this series, the Texans have gone 6-0 (5-1 ATS) and the offense (36.1 PPG) has put on a show. Your emotional handicapping angle could be in play on Monday as Texans owner Bob McNair passed away on Friday.

Fearless Predictions

After going 2-1 early last Sunday, I thought the 3-1 day was in the bag but the Bears decided to tack on some late points to burn our team total. Even though the deficit ($5) was minimal, the Thanksgiving Day totals ($400) got us back on track and in solid footing ($905) heading into this Sunday.

Best Over: Arizona-L.A. Chargers 44
Best Under: San Francisco-Tampa Bay 54
Best Team Total: Over 20 N.Y. Giants

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 39 ½ N.Y. Giants-Philadelphia
Over 43 ½ Miami-Indianapolis
Under 55 ½ Green Bay-Minnesota

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By: Brandon DuBreuil



LAFELL HEADS TO IR

The Raiders placed receiver Brandon LaFell on injured reserve after Oakland’s latest No. 1 receiver suffered a torn Achilles tendon against Arizona on Sunday. Martavis Bryant will also be out in Week 12, although coach Jon Gruden said on Monday that Jordy Nelson “has a chance” to return this week as the Raiders travel to Baltimore. Seth Roberts will continue to start at receiver and Marcell Ateman will likely see his fair share of snaps in Week 12 as he posted four catches for 50 yards in LaFell’s absence on Sunday.

Oakland’s receiver situation is an absolute mess and, predictably, it has negatively affected Derek Carr’s performance. Even in a win at Arizona on Sunday, Carr threw for just 192 yards on 19-of-31 passing, though we enjoyed the performance as we got a winner with the Under on his passing yards total. Carr has now thrown for under 200 yards in three of his last five games and faces one of his toughest tests of the season in Week 12 as the Raiders travel east for an early start against a Ravens defense that ranks fifth in DVOA and most recently held Andy Dalton to 211 yards on 36 attempts. Fade Carr until further notice and take the Under on his passing yards total for Week 12.


BUCS GO BACK TO WINSTON

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to turn back to Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback after the Week 6-8 starter came on in relief of a struggling Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday and threw for 199 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on 12-of-16 passing. Winston’s efforts led a spirited Bucs comeback that fell just short, but it was good enough to earn him the start — at least for this week. Ultimately, it seems that the Bucs are just happy to ride the hot hand for the remainder of the season.

Winston was inconsistent in his three-game stint as the starter earlier this season, putting in great, average, and terrible performances (in that order). He looked solid on Sunday however, and is in a great spot this week as the Bucs host the 49ers as a 3.5-point favorite and with a game total of 55. The Bucs feature the league’s top passing offense at 361 passing yards per game and you can be sure that Winston will be airing it out all afternoon against a Niners defense that is below average in defending the pass at 21st in passing DVOA. We’re taking the Over on Winston’s passing yards total.


HOWARD PLACED ON IR

Tampa Bay got some devastating news on Tuesday when O.J. Howard was placed on injured reserve with foot and ankle injuries that he suffered on the same play against the Giants last week. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Cameron Brate. It’s a huge loss for the Bucs as Howard was having a really nice season, especially of late as he was averaging 3.8 catches for 57.2 yards per game over his last six.

Brate has been mostly irrelevant this season but has a nice chance to deliver a big performance on Sunday as the Buccaneers take on the 49ers. That matchup has an Over/Under currently set at 54.5, which is the highest total for Sunday’s slate. The Niners aren’t a great matchup for tight ends as they rank 22nd in DVOA against the position and are allowing 6.9 passes per game to the position for 49.3 yards. Still, Tampa Bay is the league’s No. 1 passing offense which immediately gives him value as the team’s top receiving threat from the position. We recommend taking the Over 3.5 on his receptions total for Sunday.


BILLS WELCOME ALLEN BACK

Buffalo coach Sean McDermott announced that quarterback Josh Allen will return on Sunday as the Bills host the Jaguars. The rookie has been out since suffering an elbow injury in Week 6 and since then Buffalo has used Derek Anderson, Nathan Peterman, and Matt Barkley under center. Allen’s return should finally provide the Bills with some consistency at quarterback for the remainder of the season.

There are a couple of things that we can take away from Allen’s starts from Weeks 1-6. First, he’s not ready to throw the ball at the NFL level yet. He’s averaging just 138.7 passing yards per game and had three games, including his last two, where he failed to reach the 100-yard mark. Second, he loves to run the ball, especially in the red zone where he had 11 rushing attempts for 59 yards that resulted in three touchdowns through his first five starts. Allen has a very tough matchup in his first game back against Jacksonville’s defense that ranks sixth in DVOA. We recommend the Under on Allen’s passing yards total but will also be sprinkling a little money on him to score a touchdown at any time in what should pay out at around +700.


JAGS STICKING WITH BORTLES

Despite his struggles, Jacksonville won’t bench Blake Bortles. At least not yet. Coach Doug Marrone confirmed that Bortles will start in Week 12 as the Jaguars head to Buffalo on Sunday. It appears, however, that Marrone is losing confidence in his starting quarterback as Bortles only attempted 18 passes in Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh. Yes, the Jags played with the lead for most of the game but there were multiple opportunities late in the game where a first down could have sealed a win and, instead of letting Bortles throw for it, the Jaguars were content to run the ball into the Steelers’ defensive wall.

Marrone seems to have figured out that his best chance of winning is by running the ball over and over again with Leonard Fournette, Carlos Hyde, and T.J. Yeldon and he did just that on Sunday with 43 rushing attempts — 28 for Fournette. On Sunday, the Jags head to Buffalo to take on a defense that ranks first against the pass in DVOA but 11th against the rush. To put that into perspective, Fournette ran for 95 yards against a Steelers unit that is ranked 10th against the rush. Volume alone makes Fournette a candidate to have a big game on Sunday at Buffalo as he should see upwards of 27-30 carries once again and we’re taking the Over on his rushing yards total.


TANNEHILL SET TO RETURN

Dolphins coach Adam Gase announced on Tuesday that Ryan Tannehill will return as the starting quarterback for their Week 12 game at Indianapolis. Tannehill will be making his first start since Week 5 and will be an upgrade over Brock Osweiler, albeit a slight one. He wasn’t very good earlier in the season before his injury, averaging just 194.4 passing yards per game with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8:5. Since he last played, the Dolphins have lost receivers Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant, while DeVante Parker is questionable after being a non-contact participant in practice on Tuesday.

Alhough we’re never thrilled with backing someone like Tannehill, we have to consider the game script for this weekend. The Dolphins have been terrible of late and have only managed to be competitive against the Jets over their last four games. The Colts are a nine-point home favorite and there’s a good chance that they get a big lead early, just like they did against the Titans last week and the Jaguars two weeks ago. When that happens, Tannehill will be forced to air it out, much like Blake Bortles did two weeks ago when he threw for 320 yards against Indy. The Colts are not great against the pass with a defense that is ranked 23rd in passing DVOA. We expect the Colts to get up big and for Tannehill to rack up the passing yards as the Dolphins attempt to make a comeback. Take the Over for his passing yards total.


GRAHAM TO TOUGH IT OUT

Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy told the media on Monday that tight end Jimmy Graham will “try to play” through the broken thumb he suffered last Thursday in Seattle. There is no guarantee that he will suit up, as the Packers’ medical staff will experiment with different splints and protections that will allow him to catch the ball. It doesn’t sound like an ideal situation but Green Bay is facing a must-win on Sunday night as it visits Minnesota, so Graham will do what he can this week to be on the field.

Should Graham suit up for Sunday Night Football, we’ll be looking to fade him. The injury situation alone would be grounds to stay away as catching a ball with a broken finger and some sort of splint/cast situation will be difficult enough. But there’s also the fact that the Packers face a tough matchup against a Vikings defense that allowed Bears tight end Trey Burton just one catch for nine yards last week. Graham’s usage has also been down as of late. He had just one catch last week as he was forced to leave the game with the injury, but he also had just one catch in two of his last three games before that. Rodgers has plenty of other options to throw to and we doubt he’ll be relying too much on a tight end with a broken finger. We’re taking the Under on Graham’s receptions total.

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BRADY SICK, HURT

Tom Brady has been downgraded on New England’s injury report with an illness that added on to his existing knee issue. He didn’t practice on Friday after being limited because of his knee earlier in the week. There aren’t any reports saying he won’t start on Sunday however, and we expect him out there as the Pats visit the Jets, especially seeing as New England is coming off their bye.

Brady is coming off one of his worst performances in recent memory where he threw for just 254 yards on 21-of-41 passing in the 34-10 road loss at Tennessee prior to the bye week. Brady gets Rob Gronkowski back and the Pats should be extremely motivated to get back in the win column, especially considering the crowded leaderboard atop the AFC standings. Brady hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard of late but is still averaging 297 passing yards per game since Week 7. The Jets are middle-of-the-pack against the pass, ranking 14th in DVOA, but they’ve also had an extremely favorable schedule where they’ve only faced two upper-tier quarterbacks all season in Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins. The rest of the QBs they’ve faced this season looks like this, starting from Week 1: Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Tyrod Taylor/Baker Mayfield, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, Mitch Trubisky, Brock Osweiler, and Matt Barkley. With a list of opposing QBs like that, the Jets should be a Top 5 defense in the league. We don’t expect Brady’s issues to be a factor on Sunday and we also think he obliterates the Jets. Take the Over 278.5 on his passing yards total.


GORDON MIGHT SIT?

The Chargers might be without Melvin Gordon on Sunday as their star running back is a game-time decision with knee and hamstring injuries. He has been limited at practice over the last two days and the Chargers could choose to rest him as they’re likely confident they can beat the Cardinals on Sunday with or without Gordon.

It would be a huge blow for Gordon backers if he can’t go as he has a cupcake matchup as a 13-point home favorite against Arizona. If he doesn’t suit up, Austin Ekeler will fill in and will be licking his chops against a defense that allows 170.5 total yards per game to running backs. Ekeler had one start earlier in the season against Tennessee in London and ran for 42 yards on 12 carries while adding 26 yards on five catches. He would be in a much better spot this week than he was back in Week 7, however, and he’d likely get 15-18 carries in what should be an easy L.A. win. Should Gordon sit, we’ll be looking to take the Over on Ekeler’s combined rushing and receiving total.


THIELEN READY TO ROLL

Receiver Adam Thielen wasn’t listed on Minnesota’s injury report ahead of its Sunday night tilt against Green Bay. He took fewer reps than usual throughout the week at practice but was always expected to play in Week 12. Thielen had one of his best games of the season against Green Bay back in Week 2 as he grabbed 12 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown — and that was back when the Packers were healthy. Green Bay is still hurting on defense with lineman Mike Daniels out and four members of the secondary questionable or doubtful.

Thielen has slowed down a bit of late but that was bound to happen after his scorching start — and it has also brought his prop totals down a bit. He hasn’t topped 100 yards in his last two games but still posted a very respectable seven catches for 66 yards last week against Chicago. Overall, the Packers are an average matchup against the pass with a passing DVOA rank of 15. But Minnesota is at home in its dome against a banged-up Packers defense. We’re taking the Over 7.5 on his receptions total for Sunday Night Football.


NINERS GET FOSTER BACK

San Francisco linebacker Reuben Foster is questionable for Sunday but looks on track to play as the 49ers travels to Tampa Bay. Foster, a second-round pick in 2017, has missed the last two games but had the bye last week to help him get over the hamstring injury that has been bothering him. His return would be a definite upgrade to a Niners rush defense that has been better than average on the season and it’s all we need to fade Peyton Barber.

Barber looked great last week in rushing for 106 yards on 18 carries but that was against a Giants defense that is bleeding against the run of late, allowing 101 yards to Matt Breida in Week 10 and 149 yards to Adrian Peterson in Week 8 (they had their bye in Week 9). San Francisco, on the other hand, has only allowed one running back to crack 70 rushing yards on the season and that was the far superior Melvin Gordon. Barber has five games on the season where he hasn’t been able to surpass 40 rushing yards in a game and we’re expecting a similar performance on Sunday as the Bucs will do most of their damage through the air. Take the Under 56.5 on Barber’s rushing yards total.


CHUBB KEEPS CHUGGING

Cleveland running back Nick Chubb is quietly developing into a superstar in the NFL. Since Carlos Hyde was sent packing prior to Week 7, Chubb has run for 80, 65, 85, and then 176 in Cleveland’s last game in Week 10 prior to its bye last week. He’s running for an absurd 6.2 yards per carry — second to Aaron Jones this season — on 94 carries. It’s also very encouraging that two of the biggest games of his young career have come in the last two weeks under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens. He also has a touchdown in each of those two weeks and three in his four games as the starter.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have been crushed by running backs of late. In their last five games, they are allowing 188 total yards per game and have given up eight rushing touchdowns (and three receiving touchdowns) to running backs. On the season, the Bengals are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per attempt up the middle at 4.8. This looks to be a tight divisional battle with the Bengals favored at -2.5, which should translate to a lot of rushing attempts once again for Chubb. We’re expecting a big game from the rookie and we’re backing the Over 85.5 rushing yards and for him to score a touchdown at any time.

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By: Brandon DuBreuil


GREEN OUT AGAIN?

A.J. Green is suddenly trending towards not playing on Sunday after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Green also said that he’d talk to the media on Friday if he was playing and then he declined to speak. Earlier in the week, we suggested taking the Over on Tyler Boyd’s receptions total under the assumption that Green was suiting up. We have to reconsider this if Green is out, however, as Boyd hasn’t been the same receiver when forced to slide into the WR1 role. Facing double-teams against both the Saints and Ravens over the last two weeks, Boyd posted lines of 3-65-0 and 4-71-0 — decent production but nowhere near some the lines he was posting out of the slot when Green was active. This week, the Bengals face the Browns and Boyd will have to see a lot of stud rookie cornerback Denzel Ward if Green is out. Green’s status for Sunday is the key here: If he’s a go, we’re backing the Over for Boyd’s receptions total; if he’s out, we’re taking the Under.


FUNCHESS NOT AT PRACTICE

Panthers No. 1 receiver Devin Funchess missed his third consecutive practice on Friday with a back injury, putting his status for Sunday’s home tilt against Seattle on the wrong side of questionable. If Funchess can’t go, Carolina’s receiving corps will be thin for Week 12 as Torrey Smith is also likely out with a knee issue that has kept him out since Week 7.

With injuries come opportunity and D.J. Moore will look to take advantage as he will slide into the starting lineup if Funchess can’t go. Moore is already getting more playing time of late, seeing at least 80 percent of the snaps over the last four weeks which culminated in a breakout performance last week where he hauled in 7-of-8 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown against Detroit. Although the Seahawks are an overall solid defense which ranks ninth in passing DVOA, they struggle the most against an opponent’s top receiver as they rank 20th against the position and are allowing 9.8 passes per game for 83.1 yards. If Funchess can’t go, Moore will slide into the WR1 role and we like his chances of having a big day. We’re taking the Over on his receiving yards total.


BALDWIN SIDELINED

Carolina might not be the only team with injury issues at receiver on Sunday as Doug Baldwin remained on the sideline at practice on Thursday and appears to be on the wrong side of questionable. If Baldwin can’t go, David Moore would likely slide into a starting role alongside Tyler Lockett. Moore has been inconsistent in both his usage and production of late, but what’s most encouraging is that Russell Wilson targeted him a season-high eight times last week — which Moore turned into four catches for 57 yards — despite that fact that he played just 57 percent of the snaps, his lowest total since Week 6.

The Seahawks run the ball more often than any team in the NFL, which is always a concern when backing their receivers, but the Panthers are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass, ranking 12th in rushing DVOA but 25th in passing DVOA. The Panthers routinely get burned out of the slot and have allowed stat lines of 6-52-0, 3-90-1, 8-82-2, and 5-54 over the last four games to the position. Although Moore is running just 3.9 percent of his snaps from the slot, Baldwin is there 65.1 percent of the time. If Baldwin can’t go, Moore should see a lot more routes from the slot and he should burn the Panthers just like every other slot receiver does. Monitor Baldwin’s status and take the Over on Moore’s receptions total if he’s out.


COLLINS DNP

Ravens running back Alex Collins was added to the injury report on Thursday as he sat out practice with a foot issue. This appears to be a new injury as Collins gets the dreaded mid-week addition tag, which is never a good sign for a player’s Sunday availability. Equally concerning for Collins is the emergence of Gus Edwards, who exploded for 117 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries last week while Collins plodded for just 18 yards seven carries.

The Ravens appear to be headed towards a committee at running back but Collins’ injury could clear things up for Sunday in what is a dream matchup as a 10.5-point home favorite against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in rushing DVOA and is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the league at 142.3. If Collins can’t go, Edwards will be in line for a huge game. Follow Covers’ Twitter feed for up-to-the-minute injury news and grab the Over on Edwards’ rushing yards total if Collins gets ruled out.


BREIDA FINALLY HEALTHY

San Francisco running back Matt Breida looks to finally be at full health and is off the injury report ahead of Week 12’s contest at Tampa Bay. The Niners were on bye last week, but prior to that Breida looked more like the breakout player we saw during the first few weeks of the year before injuries slowed him down as he posted 101 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against the Giants while adding three receptions for 31 yards on four targets.

If you watch Breida play, he seems to excel when he gets to the outside and the stats back that up as he’s averaging 6.3 yards per attempt and 24.4 yards per game on carries outside the tackles. It just so happens that Tampa Bay is the worst in the league at defending running backs once they get outside the tackles, allowing six yards per carry and 54.6 yards per game. There is the slight worry that Tampa Bay’s high-scoring offense could get the Bucs a big lead on Sunday, but Breida was involved in the passing game last week and should be again in Week 12 if that happens. We’re taking the Over on his combined rushing and receiving yards total.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Brandon DuBreuil


JACKSON TO START AGAIN

Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco remained sidelined at practiced on Wednesday and all signs are pointing to rookie Lamar Jackson getting another start against Oakland on Sunday. Jackson showed glimpses of what made him the Heisman Trophy winner in 2016 as he went 13-of-19 for 150 yards through the air while rushing 26 times for 119 yards. He also had five red zone carries but was unable to hit pay dirt.

Jackson gets the coziest of spots on Sunday as the Ravens host the Raiders as a 10.5-point favorite. Oakland is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the league at 142.3 and is ranked 25th in rushing DVOA. Last week, the Raiders were torched by David Johnson for 137 yards on 25 carries. Jackson should have no problem picking up chunks on the ground against the hapless Raiders, but we’re going to shy away from his rushing yards total just in case he stops running in the second half when the Ravens presumably have a big lead. Instead, we’re backing him to score a touchdown at any time (or a rushing touchdown) as it seems like an anomaly that last week’s red zone usage didn’t result in a score.


DARNOLD OUT, MCCOWN IN?

Jets quarterback Sam Darnold still hasn’t practiced this week despite telling reporters that his foot “feels great.” The Jets’ season is a write-off and they would be foolish to rush him back if he’s at anything less than 100 percent, especially this week as a nine-point home underdog to the Patriots. Assuming Darnold is out, Josh McCown will start his second game of the season. McCown’s first start was an absolute disaster as he threw for just 135 yards despite throwing the ball 34 times, as the Bills thrashed New York 41-10. This week isn’t looking any more promising for McCown as he takes on the Pats as come off their bye week.

The Jets offense is embarrassing right now and have to be faded until further notice. They haven’t scored more than 10 points in a game since Week 7. In their past four games, they’re scoring a touchdown on just 7.5 percent of their possessions. They’ve also managed just 17 plays from inside their opponent’s 10-yard line on the entire season. Even with an expected negative game script where they should be throwing a lot as they play from behind, we’re staying far away from the Jets’ offense, especially when led by a 39-yard-old backup. Take the Under 18.5 on the Jets’ team total.


PERFECT STORM FOR EDELMAN

In sticking with the Patriots-Jets game on Sunday, New England will have a healthy Julian Edelman as he is practicing in full this week. He hurt his foot in Week 10 but apparently, last week’s bye was enough time to get him back to full speed. Edelman has been a monster of late, drawing target totals of 12, 10, and 10 in his last three games and turning them into receiving lines of 9-104, 6-71, and 9-104. Opposing teams love to throw against the Jets and, when they do, it’s usually to a receiver as 69.2 percent of the total targets against the Jets are to wideouts. The Jets are also terrible at defending slot receivers as they allow 110.7 yards per game to the position, the third-most in the NFL. Everything is lined up for Edelman to have a huge game on Sunday and we’re taking the Over on his receiving yards total.


DID WE LEARN OUR LESSON ON FADING ALLEN?

Chargers receiver Keenan Allen is practicing in full this week, after a finger injury had him on the injury report last week. Allen showed no ill effects against the Broncos, however, as he hauled in nine of 12 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown (and cost us our Under bet) in what was a very tough matchup against cornerback Chris Harris Jr. Allen has been nothing short of great since the Chargers’ bye week, posting receiving lines of 6-124-0, 6-57-1, and 9-89-1 in Weeks 9-11, respectively.

You would think that Allen is in for a big day as the Chargers play against the lowly Cardinals in Week 12, but there are a couple points of concern. The first is that the Cardinals are actually tough against their opponent’s top receiver, ranking sixth in DVOA to the position and allowing just 7.7 passes and 59.8 yards per game to WR1s. The second is that the Chargers might just run the ball all day. The Cardinals have allowed 100-plus rushing yards in nine of 10 games this season and the Chargers could be less inclined to throw the ball late in the game, assuming they have a big lead as a 12.5-point home favorite. While Allen’s statistical trends point to the Over, we’re concerned about Week 12 and we recommend taking the Under on his receiving yards total.


TEXANS THOMAS TO GET MORE TARGETS?

Texans coach Bill O’Brien talked about Demaryius Thomas’ slow start on Wednesday, telling the media, "I have to do a better job of getting him more involved. He’s working hard, he’s a good pro and we need to do a better job of getting him the ball a little more." Thomas saw three quick targets in his Houston debut in Week 9, which he turned into three catches for 61 yards. However, he hasn’t seen a single target since, even though the Texans had their bye in Week 10 to get him up to speed on their offense.

Even more discouraging for Thomas is the return of Keke Coutee. The breakout slot receiver drew a team-high nine targets last week. It’s clear that Deshaun Watson is simply a big fan of Coutee as the rookie out of Texas Tech has absorbed 24 percent of the targets in the five games he has played this season — and that includes the partial game against the Jaguars in which he was forced to leave with a hamstring injury. When Coutee is on the field, he’s a key piece of Houston’s offense and that’s not going to change on Monday night against the Titans. Despite O’Brien’s comments about Thomas, he is not a threat to Coutee’s production and we’re backing the Over on his receptions total for Monday night.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Jets are 15-0-1 ATS (11.7 ppg) since Nov 19, 1995 at home coming off a home loss where they allowed less than 300 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 as a road dog when they allowed at least 24 points last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Panthers are 0-9 OU (-8.8 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 as a favorite coming off a road game where Greg Olsen had at least one touchdown.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 10-0 OU (10.0 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 off a loss as a dog where they forced at least two turnovers.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-12-1 OU (-9.4 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 as a road favorite coming off a loss where they failed to cover.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Chargers are 12-0 ATS (+8.25 ppg) vs a nondivisional opponent when they are off a loss in which they threw at least nine more passes than their season-to-date average.

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SNF - Packers at Vikings

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Thanks to an 18-point scoring barrage in the final 15 minutes of last week's SNF game between the Vikings and Bears, my 'over' selection was able to just barely get there. It was a disappointing loss for the Vikings as they not trail the Bears by a substantial margin in the NFC North race, and the loser of this week's game between the Packers and Vikings can likely only aim for a Wild Card berth at this point.

But for the second week in a row we get to see Kirk Cousins and this Minnesota team, and to me, that's always the downside of these SNF games getting flexed in.

So it is what it is for Week 12 as networks don't want to risk low viewership by putting to sub-par teams under the lights, so let's see if we can get another winner on SNF. I'm sure the Packers and Vikings are saying the same thing too after the first meeting between the two this year ended in a tie.

Odds: Minnesota (-3.5); Total set at 47.5

The first meeting between the Vikings and Packers this year back in mid-September, looked a lot like last week's Minnesota/Chicago game in the sense that both sides really opened things up and scored plenty of points in the final 15 minutes. Minnesota outscored Green Bay 22-9 in the 4th quarter to earn the eventual tie, and the slow start that week has turned into a bit of a theme for the Vikings this year.

This time around, the Vikings are hosting a Packers team that's had a little extra rest after playing on Thursday night, but Green Bay is still winless SU away from home. The Packers have had their chances no doubt, but they just can't seem to make that key play late, or close a game down when they need too, and that's a theme that probably started for them way back when they tied the Vikings.

So you've got one team that starts slow, and the other who can't finish. Where should your money be going here?

Well, it's not too hard to make a case for either side to win this game, and from a side perspective the spread is probably exactly where it should be. However, Green Bay will eventually have a game where they put it all together away from home, and Minnesota will have a game where they don't get off to these brutal starts, so it's not the side I'm looking to attack. For the second straight week it's the total. And although I was rather lucky in cashing the 'over' with Minnesota last week, I've got no problem going back to that well again here.

For one, even though it was a slow start for Minnesota a week ago offensively, they still managed to put up their seventh straight week of scoring 20 or more points. Minnesota is 4-3 O/U in those games, but two of the three 'unders' were lucky to get there – vs New Orleans and Philadelphia – and the third came against a Detroit team that really struggles to move the ball.

You know with Aaron Rodgers in town that the Packers attack will have offensive success, especially with a 3-2 O/U run going on the road where both 'unders' came when the total was set at 56 or higher. This week's number is about 10 points lower than that, and neither of those 'unders' for Green Bay finished with fewer than 48 points.

Furthermore, as a team, Green Bay is on a 5-1 O/U run under the bright SNF lights, 5-1 O/U after getting a bit of extra rest coming off a TNF game, and 5-1 O/U in their last six road games against division foes. The more this game turns into a defensive-minded battle, the less chance for success the Packers will figure they'll have, and it's not like Minnesota can be too confident in their defense holding Rodgers down either.

So while the first meeting was rather lucky to cash an 'over' ticket with that 4th quarter scoring barrage, I strongly believe the result stays the same but in a much easier manner this time around. A 27-24 type game is well within reason here – for either side – and it's why my money is going on the high side in prime time again this week.

[StarDust Bum]

49ers have cut linebacker Reuben Foster after he was arrested on domestic violence charges for the second time in the last year.
Today's Pointspread: Bucs -2
Today's Total: 54.5

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⚡ NFL Week 12 Weather Alerts ⚡

Not much action in the Week 12 weather report.
The only game we're really keeping an eye on is in Buffalo where temps are expected to be in the mid-30's & there is a chance of some lake-effect snow (30%).
Spread: Jags -3
Total: 37.5

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Despite previous report to the contrary, Chargers' RB Melvin Gordon (hamstring/knee) is now expected to play today at home vs. Cardinals.
Pointspread: Chargers -14
Total: 43.5


Quarterback Tom Brady (illness, knee) has been cleared to play today @ Jets after missed practice Friday. He should be without limitations.
Pointspread: Patriots -11
Total: 46.5

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Essentials - Week 12
November 25, 2018
By Tony Mejia

Sunday

Jacksonville (-3/37) at Buffalo, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: It’s hard to fathom that this is a battle of two last-place teams. The Jaguars were a bounce away from finishing off an AFC Championship upset of New England and were expected to be among this season’s top contenders. Instead, they come in on a six-game losing streak, having failed to even so much as cover a spread since Sept. 30. Jalen Ramsey getting injured trying to chase around Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill seemed to be the root of the problems on the defensive end, although there have been multiple injuries on that side of the ball that have crept up as huge problems. Corner A.J. Bouye returning against Pittsburgh to lend Ramsey provides some hope that the defense can get things fixed and go on a run, but former Bill Marcell Dareus will be absent from a defensive front that will be tasked with keeping Josh Allen in the pocket.

The Buffalo rookie hasn’t played since Oct. 14 but will return from an elbow injury. His parade of replacements – Nathan Peterman, Derek Anderson and Matt Barkley – make it easy to forget that he had thrown for just over 80 yards in his previous two starts. Still, his ability to run and extend plays has made his absence a glaring one since he at least worked in conjunction with the defense instead of against them. Controlling possession should be a huge part of this one given Jacksonville’s own lack of confidence in Blake Bortles, whose struggles have gone off the rails over the past month-plus. He threw for 104 yards last week, so it’s no surprise that this total will be among the lowest of the season. Can Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy break off enough big runs to make under bettors nervous? Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind a factor. The last four meetings between these teams have all produced at least 47 points, but this is the first time Doug Marrone and Sean McDermott meet as head coaches.

Oakland at Baltimore (-12/42.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Lamar Jackson will get his second start and will presumably not rack up 26 carries again, although, who knows, maybe that usage will be his norm? The rookie is back under center since Joe Flacco’s hip issue has sidelined him a second straight week and produced win by throwing for 150 yards and running for 119 last week. The Raiders defense has faced mostly pocket passers all season. Russell Wilson took off only six times in their 27-3 Oct. 14 loss in London, gaining 20 yards. Ryan Tannehill rushed for 26 yards on three carries way back in Week 3, but you can safely expect that this will be a different animal for a defense that has struggled to gain pressure but did help snap a five-game losing streak with big plays against Arizona rookie Josh Rosen last week.

Baltimore is going to trust its defense to keep Derek Carr from coming through on his wish to wreck the Raiders’ draft plans by winning as often as possible now that the lid is back off, but it must be pointed out that Oakland could be winless this season if not for some tremendous luck in its Sept. 30 loss to Cleveland and last week’s comeback win in Arizona. Both of those victories have come against rookies. The odds of that run continuing improved with RB Doug Martin and WR Jordy Nelson both getting cleared to participate despite injuries, so the Ravens will have some problems to solve. It’s never been nicer in Maryland this time of year, so Jackson and Carr will have mild conditions to work with.

San Francisco at Tampa Bay (-1.5/54.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Jameis Winston is back after coming in and providing a spark against the Giants last week, throwing two touchdowns and moving back ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick as their game of QB teeter-totter continues. Winston is back up and takes aim at a 49ers pass defense that has been inconsistent and won’t be able to count on LB Reuben Foster, who is again in legal trouble after an alleged domestic violence incident. The 49ers haven’t cowered on the road all season, so their 0-5 record is misleading. Setbacks against the Vikings, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers and Cardinals have all been one-possession games with the expectation of a 38-27 loss at Arrowhead.

Second-year QB Nick Mullens will get his third career start – the first on the road. He’s had moments of brilliance since being pressed into duty and will face a depleted Bucs defense missing its top linebackers and featuring major issues in the secondary. Corner M.J. Stewart and safety Justin Evans have been ruled out but defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry should play. Winston will count DeSean Jackson among his weapons, but tight end O.J. Howard was lost for the season to an ankle injury last week. The ‘over’ is 8-2 in Bucs’ games this season, which is partially why the total has been placed in the mid-50s.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-5/48), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This may be Sunday’s most compelling game simply due to the magnitude of what’s involved. The slumping Giants could come into Philadelphia and bury the Eagles in a whole they’ll be unlikely to work their way out of. Losing would put Philly a full two games back of both Washington and Dallas. For New York, this is a last gasp for any realistic thought that it can win out and rise up from the dead, but they have pulled off consecutive victories to inspire hope. Rookie RB Saquon Barkley was named the NFC’s Offensive Player of the week for his dominant Week 11 efforts against the Bucs, so this figures to be a tough test for an Eagles defense hurting for depth in the back seven with LB Jordan Hicks sidelined and corner Sidney Jones doubtful while Jalen Mills, Avonte Maddox and Ronald Darby already out. Unless the front four gets pressure on Eli Manning, he could have a big day.

Carson Wentz will attempt rebound from a dreadful performance where he missed throw after throw against the Saints in a shocking 48-7 loss. The Eagles also failed to make plays in their last three appearances in the Linc, suffering tight losses to Dallas, Carolina and Minnesota. Philadelphia is 0-4-1 against the number at home and looks Super Bowl-cursed as the calendar approaches December. Considering how quickly fortunes change and the fact they’ll still see the ‘Skins twice and visit the Cowboys, nothing is set in stone and futures of NFC champ (50/1) and Super Bowl winner (100/1) remain attractive if you think Wentz will figure things out and the Eagles can go on a run. It’s certainly possible, but will require a victory here. Philly has won eight of nine in this series, including a 34-13 win in Week 6. The Giants haven't won at Lincoln Financial Field since 2013, getting outscored 105-50.

New England (-11.5/46.5) at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The first scheduled meeting between the Jets’ greatest source of hope and their primary tormentor over the last decade-plus won’t end with a post-game handshake after four quarters of mutual admiration. Sam Darnold is sidelined with a foot injury and will again be replaced by veteran Josh McCown, who will have a full bye week of preparation for his second start of the season after a rough start against Buffalo. The Bills won 41-10 in Week 10 two Sundays ago as the season hit rock bottom for New York considering starter Matt Barkley was basically signed off the street and helped beat them handily. The Jets are hoping a week off from action will help provide a fresh start, but the opportunity to turn the page by moving on from head coach Todd Bowles to open the bye week came and went without incident.

Bowles is 1-5 against the Patriots and is by no means the root of New York’s problems over the last decade, but he’s won only his first home matchup with fellow defensive mind Bill Belichick, continuing a 2-13 run for the Jets against the Pats since December 2010. There have been embarrassing episodes and three games close enough to require overtime. The two victories have come at Met Life Stadium. We’ll see if the Jets can find a way to come out of the holiday by providing some resistance at home but will face a New England team coming off its own embarrassing pre-bye effort, getting drilled 34-10 at Tennessee. The Pats have bounced back with wins in nine of their last 10 games following losses, covering in every victory. They’ve covered in eight of the last 10 as a double-digit favorite, losing outright only once. New England typically handles its business in these situations and will have Brady under center despite some knee soreness and an illness that forced him to miss practice on Friday. He’ll have Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup after he missed multiple games with a back injury and will also have RB Sony Michel in the mix. Right guard Shaq Mason is also expected to be back after missing a pair of games and pleasant 50 degree temperatures will make for solid working conditions for both.

Miami at Indianapolis (-8.5/52), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Two of the five AFC teams vying for the No. 6 seed as they enter Sunday’s play with 5-5 records square off under the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium. For Miami, it doubles as the return of Ryan Tannehill to the lineup following a five-game absence in which Brock Osweiler managed to keep the Fish afloat with a 2-3 mark. He lost both road games convincingly and beat the Jets, so splitting against Chicago and Detroit has to be considered his strongest work. At any rate, Tannehill is more accurate and sharper, so any realistic hope of making the playoffs will require him remaining healthy, especially given the defenses that will be lining up to stop him going forward. The Dolphins have averaged 12.5 points over the past two weeks due to attrition at the receiver position and Osweiler’s limitations but will have tackle Laremy Tunsil available to offer protection and used the bye to get RB Kenyan Drake, WR DeVante Parker and Danny Amendola.

The Colts have won four straight by riding Andrew Luck and a defense playing much better than anticipated, so with safeties Clayton Geathers and Malik Hooker available and corner Nate Hairston also cleared, the secondary is intact to make Tannehill’s return as unpleasant as possible. Luck has been brilliant and has been getting excellent protection up front, so there’s a major development to monitor with center Ryan Kelly ruled out with a knee injury. It’s looking like Evan Boehn will be tasked with snapping to Luck and calling out signals but hasn’t played center since college. He joined the Colts only a month ago.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR -3.0
U 46.0

CLE at CIN 01:00 PM
CLE -1.0
U 46.5

JAC at BUF 01:00 PM
JAC -3.0
O 36.5

NYG at PHI 01:00 PM
NYG +4.5
O 49.0

OAK at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -13.0
U 42.0

NE at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +13.0
U 46.5

SF at TB 01:00 PM
TB -1.5
U 54.5

ARI at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -14.0
O 43.0

PIT at DEN 04:25 PM
DEN +3.0
O 47.5

MIA at IND 04:25 PM
IND -9.0
O 51.5

GB at MIN 08:20 PM
MIN -3.5
U 48.0

[StarDust Bum]

Seahawks 30, Panthers 27— Carolina had ball nine times in this game; they got inside Seattle 20-yard line on seven of those nine drives, but scored only 27 points, which isn’t good, and it cost them this game- they also missed a 51-yard FG on one of the two drives that didn’t get into the red zone. Panthers also fumbled five times, though they didn’t lose any of them.


Carolina lost its last three games, with no takeaways in any of them; this was their first home loss this season. Seattle passes the Panthers in Wild Card race; they’re 10-6-2 in last 18 games as a road underdog.

Browns 35, Bengals 20— Maybe it is Hue Jackson’s fault; Browns won two of three games since they sent Jackson away, scoring 28-35 points in last two games. Bengals brought Jackson on as an assistant coach and haven’t won since, giving up 51-24-35 points in their last three games.


Cleveland’s offense in first half: 4 drives, 37 plays, 289 yards, four TD’s. They ran out the last 0:32 of the first half with a fifth drive.


Andy Dalton hurt his thumb in this game, as Cincy lost for 5th time in last six tries.


Browns ended a 25-game losing streak with this win.


Buccaneers 27, 49ers 9— This doesn’t happen much, but every so often, handicapping is a simple game. Saturday night, 49ers’ LB Reuben Foster was arrested at the team’s hotel and charged with domestic violence. The night before a game- brilliant!!! This makes the 49ers a go-against play.


49ers released Foster after the game.


Buccaneers gained 400+ yards for 6th time in last seven games, but won for first time in last five weeks. For once, they didn’t turn the ball over, going +3 in turnovers.


Eagles 25, Giants 22:
— Giants in first half: 5 drives, 38 plays, 346 yards, 19 points
— Giants in second half: 5 drives, 22 plays, 56 yards, 3 points.
— Philly was scoreless in first quarter for 5th game in a row.
— Eagles won 17 of their last 21 games against the Giants.


Unless Saquon Barkley is hurt and Giants are hushing it up, they committed malpractice here by not feeding him the ball enough. 13 runs, 8 pass targets wasn’t near enough in this game and for the love of God, if you go for two points from the 1-yard line, give him the bleeping ball!!!!


Bills 24, Jaguars 21— This game was like a throwback to the 70’s; both teams ran for more yards than they threw for; Bills completed only 8 passes all day, but on an unseasonably warm day in western NY (44 degrees), Jacksonville lost its 7th game in a row.


Bills’ rookie QB Allen ran the ball 13 times for 99 yards; unless he learns to slide or get OB and avoid big hits, he is going to have a short NFL career. He’s got talent, but he’s got to preserve his health, or else……..


Ravens 34, Raiders 17— Speaking of running QB’s, Lamar Jackson toned it down in this game, running only 11 times, after 27 runs LW; Jackson is 2-0 as an NFL starter while Oakland lost for 6th time in its last seven games. Raiders are 15 for their last 55 on third down.


Patriots 27, Jets 13— New England is now 13-2 in last 15 series games; they gained 498 yards in this game, averaging 9.1 yards/pass attempt in a game where Jets had 10-yard advantage in field position. Patriots won last five series games played in the New Jersey swamp; they’re 14-7 vs spread in last 21 games as road favorites.