Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9


Thursday
Raiders (1-6) @ 49ers (1-7)— Not much to pick from here; Oakland lost its last three games, all by 14+ points; their opponents converted 25-39 third down plays (64.1%) in those games. Raiders are 0-3 on road, losing by 1-8-16- they were outscored 112-41 in second half of their six losses. Oakland is 2-7-1 in its last 10 games as road underdogs. 49ers lost their last six games; they’re -11 in turnovers in last five. Since 2014, SF is 3-10 as home favorites. Niners won three of last four meetings; Oakland lost 34-20/17-9 in last two visits here. AFC West teams are 11-8-1 vs spread outside the division; NFC West teams are 8-8-1. Over is 5-2 in 49ers’ last seven games.

Sunday
Lions (3-4) @ Vikings (4-3-1)— Minnesota is 9-0 vs spread (8-1 SU) in its last nine pre-bye games. Lions allowed 26+ points in their four losses, 23 or less in their three wins; Detroit is 3-0 vs spread on road this year (2-0 as AU), 1-2 SU, with losses by total of five points. Minnesota won three of its last four games; under Zimmer, they’re 20-7 as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Vikings allowed 21 or less people in its four wins, 27+ in the other four games; they ran ball for 100+ yards in only one of their last seven games. Lions are 8-6 in last 14 series games; they won three of last four visits to the Twin Cities. Over is 5-2 in Detroit games this year; under is 3-1 in Viking home games.

Chiefs (7-1) @ Browns (2-5-1)— Williams is new HC for Browns; Kitchens is new OC after team fired HC/OC Monday; KC is tough opponent for them to break in against. Chiefs won/covered seven of eight games; they’re 3-1 on road- their last three road games were all decided by 5 or fewer points. KC is 9-3 in last dozen games as road favorites. Browns lost last three games, giving up 32.3 ppg; they’re 6-15-1 in last 22 games as home dogs, albeit 2-1 this year. KC won three of last four series games, winning by 2-6-4 points; they lost last visit here 30-7 in ’12. Browns’ GM Dorsey came to Cleveland from the Chiefs. Under is 3-1 in Cleveland home games, 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five games.

Steelers (4-2-1) @ Ravens (4-4)— Ravens won first meeting 26-14 (+3) in Week 4 at Heinz Field; they last swept Pitt in 2015. Baltimore outgained Pitt 451-284, blanked Steelers 12-0 in 2nd half. Ravens are 7-4 in last 11 series games; Steelers lost four of their last five visits here. Nine of last 15 series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Ravens are 1-3 since that first meeting; they’re 0-3 when allowing more than 14 points. Steelers won last three games, scoring 41-28-33 points (12 TD’s on last 29 drives); Pitt is 2-0-1 on road- they’re 11-6-1 in last 18 games as road underdogs. Under is 5-1 in last six Baltimore games, 2-4 in last six Steeler games. Ravens are 2-4 SU (1-5 vs spread) in last six pre-bye games.

Buccaneers (3-4) @ Panthers (5-2)— Fitzpatrick gets nod at QB for Bucs after he rallied them back from down 34-16 to tie game in Cincy Sunday; Bucs were 2-1 when he started in Weeks 1-3. Under Koetter, Tampa is 9-7-1 as road underdogs, 2-2 this year- average total in their road games is 70. Panthers won four of last five games, are 4-0 at home- they’re 7-9 in last 16 games as home favorites, 2-1 this year. Carolina won eight of last ten series games, including four of last five games played here, with wins by 21-2-28-3 points. Over is 6-1 in Tampa games, 4-2 in last six Carolina tilts. In last two games, Panthers converted 11-23 on third down (47.8%), after converting 22-62 (35.5%) in first five games.

Jets (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-4)— Miami won first meeting 20-12 (+2.5) in Week 2, but they haven’t swept Jets since ’09. Two of Miami’s three TD drives in Week 2 were less than 50 yards. Jets won four of last five visits to South Beach, but are 1-6-1 vs spread in last eight games on natural grass- they lost last three road games, scoring 4 TD’s in last 32 road drives. Gang Green scored 34+ points in its three wins, 17 or less in their losses. Miami lost four of last five games, giving up 32-42 points last two weeks; in 3 of their last 4 games, Fish allowed 22+ points in second half. Miami doesn’t have a takeaway in its last two games, after having 15 in its first six games. Over is 4-1 in Jets’ last five games, 3-0 in Miami’s last three.

Falcons (3-4) @ Redskins (5-2)— Atlanta plays six of its last nine games on road; they’re 0-2 outdoors, losing 18-12 in Philly, 41-17 in Pitt, are 1-8 vs spread in last nine road games- they’re 32 for last 55 on third down, and are 3-1 when allowing less than 30 points. Redskins won their last three games, with 7 takeaways (+6); they’re 5-2 in last seven games as home favorites. Washington ran ball for 130+ yards in all five of its wins, 65-39 in its losses; Atlanta held 2 of 7 opponents under 100 YR. Atlanta won last five series games, winning last three visits here, by 7-10-7 points; last series games was in ’15. Last three Redskin games stayed under total; over is 5-1 in last six Atlanta games.

Bears (4-3) @ Bills (2-5)— Buffalo played its hearts out Monday night but lost 25-6; need a QB to win NFL games. In their last five games, Bills scored two TD’s on 53 drives, with 14 turnovers (-6). In four of their six losses, Buffalo didn’t score a TD- they were outscored 43-3 in first half of last three games. Chicago is 1-2 on road; games were decided by total of six points- since ’14, they’re 0-3 as road favorites, 0-2 this year. Bears are 6-12 vs spread in last 18 true road games. Chicago is 3-2 vs spread as a favorite this year. Teams split last four series games, with both Bills’ wins in OT; this is Bears’ first visit to Orchard Park since ’02 (they met in Toronto in ’10). Over is 3-1 in last four Chicago games; last six Buffalo games stayed under.

Texans (5-3) @ Broncos (3-5)— Houston won its last five games after an 0-3 start; Texans ran ball for 141-188 yards in its last two games- hopefully banged-up QB Watson won’t have to take bus to Denver, like he did for last road game. Broncos lost five of last six games after a 2-0 start; they’re 2-4-2 in last eight games as home favorites. Denver won three of four series games, winning three of four series games played here; Broncos won 37-13/27-9 in last two meetings. Under is 3-1 in last four Houston games, 5-2 in last seven Denver games. AFC South teams are 9-12 vs spread outside their division; AFC West teams are 7-1-1 as non-divisional favorites. Denver won five of its last six pre-bye games (4-2 vs spread).

Chargers (5-2) @ Seahawks (4-3)— Seattle ran ball for 155-176 yards in winning their last two games- they’re 4-1 in last five games after an 0-2 start. In their last three games, Seahawks are 22-37 on 3rd down, after going 0-10 in Week 4 at Arizona. Seattle is 1-7 vs spread in its last nine games as home favorites. Chargers won their last four games, averaged 9.2+ yardss/pass attempt in each of their last three games. LA is 3-0 outside LA, winning 31-20 at Buffalo in their only game on artificial turf. Seattle won six of last eight meetings, three of last four played here; these teams used to be AFC West rivals. Chargers are 2-5 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. Under is 5-1 in Seattle’s last six games; over is 5-2 in Charger games.

Rams (8-0) @ Saints (6-1)— Under McVay, Rams are 3-2 vs spread as underdogs; they’re 12-1 SU away from home, with only loss at Minnesota LY. LA scored 29 points in every game this year except Denver game, when it was 20 degrees- in last three games, LA’s opponents are just 8-30 on 3rd down. Saints won their last six games, covering last five; they held last six foes under 100 YR, and haven’t lost field position battle yet this year. Average total in Saints’ three home games this year: 63. Home side won last five series games; Rams lost 31-13/49-21 in last two visits here. Under is 3-1 in Saints’ last four games, 3-0 in Rams’ last three. This game has good shot at deciding #1 seed in NFC playoffs.

Packers (3-3-1) @ Patriots (5-2)— Green Bay blitzed Goff a lot LW and held Rams without score on their first five drives; they’re 0-3 on road, allowing 31-31-29 points (11 TD’s on 34 drives)- they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as road underdogs, 1-0 this year. 4 of 7 Packer games this year were decided by 3 or fewer points. Short week for Patriots after vanilla effort in Buffalo Monday; NE won last five games, is 4-0 at home (3-1 as HF)- they’re 25-12-3 vs spread in last 40 games as a home favorite. Teams split ten games overall; Packers are 2-4 in Foxboro, losing 31-27 in last visit here, in ’10. Over is 4-2 in last six Packer games, 3-1 in last four Patriot games. In last two games, NE scored three TD’s on special teams/defense.

Monday
Titans (3-4) @ Cowboys (3-4)— Cowboys fired their OL coach during bye week, would expect to see them try and run ball more here. Dallas is 3-0 at home, 0-4 on road; 3 of their last 4 games were decided by 3 or fewer points. Cowboys are 7-6 in last 13 games as home favorites, 1-1 this year. Titans lost last three games after a 3-1 start; five of their last six games were decided by 3 or fewer points- they’re 10-24-1 vs spread in last 35 true road games, 8-17 in last 25 games as a road underdog. Dallas won three of last four series games; Oilers/Titans are 4-3 in their visits here. Under is 5-2 in Dallas games, 5-1 in last six Titan tilts. Thought o lay 6.5 points to a team that hasn’t played a game this season that was decided by more than seven points.

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THE 2018 NFL SEASON IS UNLIKE ANY OTHER...

��Ave 48.2 total points per game (all-time high)
��Teams ave 252.5 passing yards (all-time high)
��5.7 ave yards per offensive play (all-time high)

��Over/Under record on the season: 60-60-1 O/U (50%)


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BROWNS AXE JACKSON, HALEY

The Cleveland Browns got the Monday NFL news cycle going by first firing head coach Hue Jackson and following that up by axing offensive coordinator Todd Haley just a short while later. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams takes over as interim head coach moving forward while running backs coach Freddie Kitchens takes over as offensive coordinator.

Williams is infamous for his role in New Orleans’ “Bountygate” scandal and is a defensive-minded coach so we can only assume (and hope) that he stays away from the offense. Kitchens is a former Alabama QB who coached under Ken Whisenhunt and Bruce Arians in Arizona from 2007-17. He has never been a coordinator at any level and has called plays in just one game — the fourth game of this past preseason. Detroit’s starters didn't play in that game, but Baker Mayfield started, and the Browns offense looked great, putting up 35 points, 424 offensive yards and 22 first downs.

We’re going to take a wait-and-see approach with the Browns this week as they face the Chiefs (K.C. -8, O/U 51.5), especially with Kitchens being such an unknown factor. But the fact is that Hue Jackson was 3-36-1 SU and 14-26 ATS in his career with the Browns. Things can only go up from here...right?


FITZMAGIC IS BACK!

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made things official on Monday by confirming that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the team’s starting quarterback moving forward. It’s a move that was expected after Fitzpatrick replaced a terrible Jameis Winston in the third quarter and rallied the Bucs from an 18-point deficit, only to watch the Bengals win it on a field goal as time expired. It’s also a franchise-altering move as Tampa Bay owes Winston no guaranteed money after this season. It’s quite possibly the end of the Jameis Winston era in Tampa Bay.

Fitzpatrick was nothing short of awesome in rallying the Bucs on Sunday, going 11 of 15 for 194 yards and two touchdowns, including a 72-yard touchdown to Mike Evans which was his league-leading fifth touchdown pass of 50 yards or more this season. The Bucs are in a tough spot this week as they play their fourth road contest in five games as a touchdown underdog at Carolina, but we’re going to back Fitzmagic to do what he does best and take the Over on his longest completed pass.


JONES TO MISS A FEW

In sticking with Tampa Bay, running back Ronald Jones is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. This clears things up a bit in the crowded Buccaneers backfield as Peyton Barber should handle the early-down work while Jacquizz Rodgers gets the passing downs.

Barber went for 85 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches against Cincy last week in what was his best game of the season. Don’t expect another big game in Week 9, however, as Barber tries to find gaps against the Panthers and their sixth-ranked unit in rush defense DVOA. Carolina has held opposing backs to under 50 yards in three of its last four games and that should happen again this week in a game where running doesn’t look to be a part of the game script for Tampa Bay as a big road underdog and a high total of 54. We lean to the Under on Barber’s rushing yards total.


KUPP COMING BACK?

Rams coach Sean McVay said on Monday that there’s a “good chance” that receiver Cooper Kupp returns on Sunday at New Orleans for a game that opened with a total of 59 and has already been bumped up to 60! Kupp has missed the last two and a half games after getting hurt early in the Week 6 win at Denver. The Rams have been able to win without Kupp, but Jared Goff has clearly missed him and has posted three of his weaker games of the season without him:

Week 6: 14 of 28, 201 yards
Week 7: 18 of 24, 202 yards
Week 7: 18 of 24, 202 yards
Week 8: 19 of 35, 295 yards

Prior to Kupp’s injury, Goff was averaging 345.4 yards per game. Sunday’s showdown is a great spot for Goff as he goes against the league’s 30th-ranked defense in pass defense DVOA but second-ranked rush defense using the same metric. In other words, the Saints’ rush defense is elite, and their pass defense is far from it. We’ll be looking to take the Over on Goff’s passing yards total on Sunday, especially if Kupp is cleared.


THOMPSON HURTING

Washington running back Chris Thompson is back on the injury report with a rib injury that he suffered in Sunday’s win over the Giants. Thompson was playing his first game since Week 5 and managed just five touches on 26 snaps (38 percent). Reports out of Washington say that his availability for Week 9 will depend on his ability to tolerate the pain.

Regardless of whether Thompson suits up, it looks like Washington’s backfield has become all Adrian Peterson. Over the past three weeks, the ageless wonder is averaging 22.3 carries for 115 yards. This Sunday, Washington hosts the Falcons in what should be a great spot for Peterson against the 31st-ranked rush defense in DVOA. Washington will also be looking to control the clock — something they do better than any team except Philadelphia — as to keep Matt Ryan and the explosive Falcons offense off the field. We like Peterson to have another big game and we’re backing the Over for his rushing total.


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⚠️Trade Alert⚠️

Demaryius Thomas has been traded from the Denver Broncos to the Houston Texans for a 4th round pick and a swap of 7th round pics.
Texans current week 9 point spread: -2.5
Texans current week 9 O/U: 46
Texans current odds to win Superbowl LIII: 25/1

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Close Calls - Week 8
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 8 of the NFL regular season to close October.

Almost every game made the list in an exciting Week 8 with the spread or total results still in question late across the league.

Houston Texas (-7) 42, Miami Dolphins 23 (45½): Houston led by four at the half and extended the lead to 11 points in the third quarter. Miami hit a field goal in the final minute of the third to get within eight with a spread that was at -7 or -7½ for most. Miami tried an on-side kick and it didn’t work out, handing Houston great field position and two plays later Deshaun Watson connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a 49-yard score. Miami answered but only with a field goal and Houston added another fourth quarter touchdown to pull away and seal a five-game winning streak.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 18 (44½): In London the Eagles delivered a 95-yard touchdown drive early in the third quarter to lead by 11 but Jacksonville closed to within five points late in the third quarter, opting to go for two and coming up short in a critical play relative to the spread that briefly hit -3½ before settling back at -3. A Josh Lambo field goal early in the fourth made the margin just two points, enough for the underdog Jaguars to cover. Philadelphia responded with a six-play touchdown drive to lead by nine with about 10 minutes remaining. Everyone involved on the spread or total watched with great interest as Jacksonville reached 1st-and-goal with about seven minutes remaining. The Jaguars didn’t get much closer however and settled for a 24-yard field goal that kept the Eagles past the favorite spread and left the total ‘under’. Jacksonville nearly got the big break it needed with an apparent fumble but on review Josh Adams was ruled down before the ball popped out. The Eagles still had to punt a few plays later but after converting one 4th-and-short play, the Jaguars fell incomplete on a 4th-and-2 throw near midfield as the Eagles and the ‘under’ held on.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) 33, Cleveland Browns 18 (47½): The Steelers led just 16-12 late in the third quarter as underdog and ‘under’ tickets were in a promising spot. James Conner added a late third quarter touchdown run to put the Steelers up by 11 and the Browns punted on its next three possessions, netting +1 yard over 10 plays while the Steelers added 10 more points. The total scoring was at 45 just ahead of the two-minute warning as Cleveland got the ball back. The Browns reached the Pittsburgh 24-yard-line with very little time left and on 4th down Baker Mayfield hit Seth DeValve for a touchdown at the six second mark to push the total ‘over’, in what turned out to be the final offensive series for coaches Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.

Kansas City Chiefs (-8) 30, Denver Broncos 23 (53½): The Chiefs led by just two at halftime 16-14 with a missed extra point in the second quarter on one of two touchdowns these teams had in the final minute before halftime to greatly change the total scoring pace. In the third Kansas City took control with two scores to go up 30-14 but Denver would score on the first play of the fourth quarter to trail by 10. The Broncos opted to go for two but failed to leave the margin right on the common number of +10, though the favorite spread fell Sunday morning. The Chiefs threw an interception a few plays later to give Denver a serious comeback shot but the Broncos had turnovers on their next two possessions. Getting the ball back with four minutes to go Denver added a field goal to ensure the underdog cover, though it wasn’t quite enough to clear the total.

Chicago Bears (-8) 24, New York Jets 10 (42): The Bears led just 7-3 at the half as the ‘under’ was the clear play in autumn conditions in Chicago. Halfway through the third quarter Chicago went up 14-3 and then early in the fourth added a field goal after a marginal punt left the Bears at midfield. The underdog Jets answered with their best drive of the day and suddenly were within the spread trailing 17-10. The Bears didn’t face a 3rd down on an 8-play, 79-yard touchdown drive to get back in front with seven minutes to go and a final threat for the Jets ended at midfield.

Seattle Seahawks (+3) 28, Detroit Lions 14 (48): Seattle had a big second quarter to lead 21-7 for a hot scoring pace but neither team added points in the third quarter to put the ‘under’ back in good shape. After getting stuffed at the goal line in the third quarter, Seattle ensured the underdog win with an early fourth quarter touchdown to put the scoring at 35 in a game that wound up with no field goals. Detroit gave itself a shot getting back within 14 and the ‘over’ was just one touchdown short of hitting with still 10 minutes to play. The Lions crossed midfield halfway through the final frame but Matthew Stafford fumbled on a sack. Detroit would reach the 4-yard-line with a new set of downs on its next possession but Stafford was picked off in the end zone to save the ‘under’.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3½) 37, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 (55): The Bengals led 27-6 in this game just before halftime but the Buccaneers hit a long field goal right before the half and then added an early third quarter touchdown to climb within 11. A pick-6 that got Jameis Winston out of the game put the Bengals up 34-16 with the ‘over’ needing just five more points in the final frame. That total was decided quickly with the Buccaneers adding 10 points in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter, sitting within a single score. Both teams punted with the game now tight and Cincinnati opted to punt on its next possession after a sack put the Bengals out of reasonable field goal range. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Buccaneers down the field but faced 4th-and-3 at the 18-yard-line with a stop able to seal the win for the Bengals. Fitzpatrick hit O.J. Howard for the touchdown and then the Buccaneers also converted for two and the tie. Andy Dalton still had a minute remaining and the Bengals converted a big third down and A.J. Green did the heavy lifting to get the Bengals in place for a 44-yard field goal that won the game, but left those on the Bengals just shy of the spread.

Indianapolis Colts (-3½) 42, Oakland Raiders 28 (51): The Raiders led 28-21 into the fourth quarter as they have done several times this season despite only one win. Indianapolis tied the game with about 11 minutes remaining and forced a punt on defense. It took the Colts only six plays to score again, going in front 35-28 and the Raiders fumbled on first down after getting the ball back. Indianapolis added a short-field score to build the misleading 42-28 final margin.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) 18, San Francisco 49ers 15 (40): This battle of one-win division rivals saw San Francisco go in front 5-3 at halftime and then 12-3 through three quarters. Early in the fourth the 49ers had a chance to go up by 16 but wound up settling for a 20-yard field goal to lead by 12. Despite limited production from the offense all day Josh Rosen led a touchdown drive in six plays to get the Cardinals back in the game, down by five. Arizona forced a punt and had the ball back with seven minutes to go but wound up fumbling near midfield. San Francisco couldn’t put the game away, needing to punt and Rosen led a very effective two-minute drill, going 73 yards in 12 plays to put the Cardinals in front, succeeding on the two-point conversion for a three-point lead. Overtime would have put the ‘over’ back in play but the 49ers ran out of time just across midfield and never got a tying field goal attempt off.

Los Angeles Rams (-7½) 29, Green Bay Packers 27 (57): This highly anticipated NFC clash lived up to the billing with the Packers giving the undefeated Rams all they could handle early. A 10-0 lead slipped to just 10-8 as the Rams got a safety and a touchdown in the final three minutes before halftime. Los Angeles took over in the second half with consecutive touchdowns to lead 23-13 but Green Bay got back within three in the final seconds of the third quarter. The Rams settled for an early fourth quarter field goal which allowed the Packers to go in front 27-26 after a 40-yard touchdown pass. Both teams punted on the next possessions but a weak 25-yard effort set the Rams up in great field position with about five minutes to go. A red zone holding penalty forced Los Angeles to settle for the field goal just after the two-minute warning, leading by two with the scoring at 56, right even with the early week total that eventually climbed to 57. Ty Montgomery opted to take the kickoff out of the end zone and disaster struck for the Packers with a fumble as Aaron Rodgers didn’t get back on the field with a chance to win the game. Facing 3rd-and-10 the Rams would have had to kick a field goal if they were stopped with just over a minute on the clock but Todd Gurley found the corner and had a clear path to the end zone. In a play that will be remembered for a long time, he wisely stayed in bounds and kneeled at the 4-yard-line to effectively end the game, as a spread and total result flipping touchdown was kept off the board.

New England Patriots (-13½) 25, Buffalo Bills 6 (44): The first three quarters of the Monday night game featured both teams moving the ball effectively but a combined six field goals kept the scoring low with New England well short of the heavy road favorite spread with a 12-6 edge. Getting the ball early in the fourth the Patriots finally completed a drive with a 12-play, 85-yard scoring drive to lead 18-6, with Brady’s two-point conversion throw intercepted. Derek Anderson almost had a touchdown throw but Jason Croom was ruled on out of bounds on review and then two plays later Devin McCourty took an interception 84 yards for a Patriots touchdown at the six-minute mark, putting New England past the heavy favorite spread. A touchdown would have still earned the cover for the Bills but Buffalo stalled on the New England 32-yard-line with about three minutes remaining and then in the final minute with Nathan Peterman in the game for an injured Anderson, the Bills were stopped on downs around the 34-yard-line.

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Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 1

OAKLAND at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Gruden 2-5 vs. line TY, Raiders 4-14-3 vs. points since early 2016. Niners however 0-3 vs. line at Levi’s TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers, based on team trends.



Sunday, Nov. 4

DETROIT at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Detroit has covered 3 of last 4 meetings and “over” 11-5 since mid 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.


KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 11-1 vs. line last 12 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team trends.


PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens have covered 3 of last 4 at home vs. Steel and 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine in series. Steel 2-0 as short-priced dog TY. Tomlin “over” 7-2 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Ravens, based on “totals” and series trends.


TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs “over” 7-1 since late 2017. Bucs have covered 3 of last 4 vs. Cam at Charlotte, however, and “unders” 7-2 last nine meetings.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.


N.Y. JETS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins 1-4 SU and vs. line since 3-0 break from gate that included a win at Jets. J-Men, however, are 5-0-2 vs. line last seven at Miami.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on series trends.


ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jay Gruden “over” trend has been fading for a while now, he’s actually “under” 8-2 last nine since late 2017. Skins, however, are 6-1 vs. spread last 7 at FedEx. Falcs have only played twice and road TY and have failed to cover either. Atlanta 5-2 “over” TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Skins, based on team trends.


CHICAGO at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 2-6 vs. line TY, “under” 8-2 last ten since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


HOUSTON at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Texans have won last five SU though just 3-2 vs. line in those. Still improvement on 8 straight Ls previous. Denver has covered last three TY but Vance Joseph on 2-15-2 spread skid previous.
Tech Edge: Texans, based on team trends.


L.A. CHARGERS at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts have won last 4 SU but only covers in 2 of those. Bolts 5-2 “over” TY after closing 2017 on 10-1 “under” run. Pete Carroll has only played two home games TY and has covered them both. Hawks were only 1-5 vs. line last 6 at home LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chargers, based on team trends.


L.A. RAMS at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Saints have covered last five and won last six SU TY, Rams only 1-3-1 vs. spread last five, and surprisingly just 4-6-1 vs. line last 11 on board since late LY. Rams were “over” 7-1 as visitor LY, Saints “over” 6-2 last 8 at home.
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


GREEN BAY at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack “over” 12-4 last 16 since mid 2017, also covered last 2 two meetings vs. Belichick in 2010 & ‘14. Pack 2-1 as dog TY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Packers, based on “totals” and team trends.




Monday, Nov. 5

TENNESSEE at DALLAS (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas 3-0 SU at home TY (2-1 vs. line), Cowboys also “under” 9-2 last 11 since late 2017. Titans 4-1 as dog for Vrabel, and “under” 9-4 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

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PHILLY FEELIN’ GOLDEN

The Philadelphia Eagles added another weapon to their offense by grabbing receiver Golden Tate from the Detroit Lions for a third-round pick. The Eagles are on a bye, so we’ll dive into how this affects their offense next week, but for this week it’s all about Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, who should absorb most of Tate’s 9.7 targets per game.

Golladay is a speedster who is averaging 10.4 yards per target so far in his career and he’ll likely get most of the hype this week. But don’t sleep on Jones who already leads the Lions in air yards, targets in the end zone, and targets inside the 10-yard line. Jones is coming off his best game of the season where he posted a line of 7-117-2, compared to just 1-12-0 for Golladay. Both are trending way up for the rest of the season but for this week we like Jones to grab a touchdown at any time against Minnesota.


TEXANS NAB THOMAS

The Houston Texans helped ease the pain of Will Fuller’s season-ending injury by getting Demaryius Thomas in exchange for basically a fourth-round pick (the teams also swapped seventh-rounders). Thomas is 30 years old and, frankly, is playing like an aging receiver this season with 4.5 catches and 50.3 receiving yards per game. But let’s face it, going from Case Keenum (not very good) to Deshaun Watson (quite good) is a massive upgrade.

Interestingly, the Texans face the Broncos on Sunday in Denver in a game where Houston’s Keke Coutee (hamstring) is questionable. Regardless of whether Coutee plays, Sunday is going to be a tough matchup for all of Houston’s passing offense against a Broncos defense that ranks second in pass defense DVOA. In general. we don’t like the idea of backing an offensive player on a new team and the matchup is just icing on the cake — take the Under on Thomas’ receiving yards total.


MONTGOMERY SENT PACKING

On Sunday, Ty Montgomery was told to take a touchback on a late kickoff return. Instead, he decided to take the ball out and wound up fumbling, costing Aaron Rodgers a chance at a comeback against the Rams. On Tuesday, he was traded to Baltimore for a seventh-round pick. Coincidence? I think not. In Montgomery, the Ravens get a versatile pass-catching back that will further crowd a backfield that includes Alex Collins and Buck Allen. But the real winner of this trade is Aaron Jones.

It was already trending in this direction, but Jones is now the clear No. 1 option in Green Bay. Jones had season-highs in snaps (32) and touches (14) last week in L.A. and turned them into 86 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are only going to get bigger with Montgomery gone and Jamaal Williams simply not producing. Jones is in a decent spot on Sunday Night Football against a New England defense that is giving up 147.8 yards to opposing backfields so far this season and the game total of 56.5 also plays in his favor. We’re going to back the Over on Jones’ combined rushing and receiving yards total.


BACK TO PETERMAN

Derek Anderson suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter on Monday night and has already been ruled out of Week 9. Josh Allen is still hurt. Yes, this means that Nathan “Pick Six” Peterman will be the Buffalo Bills’ starting quarterback on Sunday as they host the Chicago Bears. The line opened at Chicago -8.5 and ticked up to -9 when the announcement was made.

Don’t try to talk yourself into betting on the Bills: Peterman is one of the worst quarterbacks we’ve seen in recent history. He has attempted 81 career passes and has thrown nine interceptions. He has appeared in six NFL games but has never managed to last more than two consecutive quarters.

Need reasons other than Peterman to fade the Bills? They haven’t scored a touchdown since the fourth quarter of Week 6. They don’t have another QB on their roster (yet); the closest thing is WR Terrelle Pryor, who played QB at Ohio State. Oh, and the Bills are playing a Chicago defense that leads the league in takeaways. There’s only one way to bet this game for now and that’s by taking the Bears -9 before the line gets even bigger. And when Buffalo’s team total market gets released later in the week, take the Under on that as well.


BEATHARD NOT A SURE THING FOR TNF

A piece of news that flew under the radar on trade deadline day was San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan telling the media that quarterback C.J. Beathard isn’t a sure bet to start on Thursday night when the Niners host the Raiders. Beathard hurt his wrist and is having trouble holding the football. Common thinking would be that the 49ers are in serious trouble if Beathard can’t go because they would be forced to start undrafted rookie Nick Mullens. But really, how much worse can Mullens be? Beathard is 0-5 since Jimmy Garoppolo went down and is killing his team with negative plays: he has thrown seven interceptions, fumbled five times (lost three), and has taken 18 sacks.

We don’t know what to expect from Mullens if he gets the call, but we do know he was great at Southern Mississippi State, throwing for almost 12,000 yards and 87 touchdowns as a four-year starter. We also know he’s in a great spot at home on Thursday against a defense that is second-worst in pass defense DVOA. The Niners are currently a three-point favorite and we predict that the line will shrink if Beathard is ruled out. If that happens, it’d be a great time to jump on San Francisco as it’s very possible that Mullens is as good, or better than Beathard.

ALL ABOUT KITTLE

Week 9 is here and while it’s always exciting to get the NFL week started, Thursday Night Football has seen better matchups. Regardless, we kick things off with a nice prop (or two) as Oakland visits San Francisco and surprising tight end George Kittle. The second-year man out of Iowa has turned heads this season and has thrown himself into the conversation as one of the top tight ends in football.

Kittle’s average of 73 receiving yards per game is third in the NFL amongst tight ends (behind Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce) and his 15.8 yards is tops at the position. He’s also receiving 23.9 percent of the Niners’ receptions, the second-highest rate in the league for tight ends. Kittle has a nice rapport with C.J. Beathard and has averaged exactly five catches per game for 78.6 yards since his former Hawkeyes teammate took over — and Beathard is expected to play on TNF despite his wrist injury. Last week, the Raiders were torched for 10 catches, 133 yards, and three touchdowns by Indy’s tight ends and we expect Kittle to have a big game tonight. Take the Over 59.5 on his receiving yards total.


NINERS D BANGED UP

San Francisco’s defense will be missing a few key players on TNF as middle linebacker Reuben Foster (hamstring) and safeties Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder) and Antone Exum (concussion) have all been ruled out. Cornerback Richard Sherman (calf, heel) is banged up and listed as questionable but is expected to play. This is obviously great news for the Raiders’ offense that is averaging just 13 points per game on the road. The travel distance for this game is minimal, however, and they’re facing a defense that is allowing 10.9 red-zone plays per game, the third-worst mark in the league. We like Oakland’s chances of putting up points tonight.

The Raiders’ defense is relatively healthy but that doesn’t mean much for a unit that is ranked 29th in total defense DVOA. Oakland is giving up 11 red-zone play per game, the second-worst mark in the league, and is giving up 31.1 points per game, also second-worst in the league. The Niners’ offense isn’t lighting up the league, but they do have an offensive-minded coach in Kyle Shanahan and the last time we saw him in primetime, San Francisco put up 30 points at Lambeau Field. Tonight’s total is set relatively low at 45.5 and we’re taking the Over.


TANNEHILL STILL OUT

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) has been ruled out for Week 9, meaning Brock Osweiler will make his fourth consecutive start. But here’s the thing: It’s not Brocktober anymore. In fact, in the case of Osweiler, you could argue that Brocktober ended last week on Thursday Night Football in the 42-23 loss at Houston.

Osweiler was fantastic in his surprise start in Week 6 versus Chicago, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns (two interceptions) on 28-of-44 passing. In Week 7, he was average, going 22 of 31 for 239 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 8, he was bad, going 21 of 37 for 241 yards and an interception. The Dolphins got down by a lot in Weeks 7 and 8 and Osweiler still put up pedestrian numbers while chasing points. This week, the Dolphins host the Jets and a pass defense that is ranked seventh in DVOA in what should be a tight divisional battle (Miami -3, O/U 45). There won’t be any garbage-time stat padding in this one and we think Osweiler is going to bottom out. Take the Under 240 on his passing yards total.


ELWAY TALKS UP SUTTON

Broncos general manager John Elway talked up rookie receiver Courtland Sutton after trading away Demaryius Thomas, saying the rookie has a "chance to get out there and play more and be a bigger part of it because we think he’s ready to go." Sutton has put up decent numbers so far this season as a clear third option while Thomas was on the field, averaging just over two catches per game for 40.5 yards. Sutton now becomes the No. 2 option behind Emmanuel Sanders and has a chance to eat into a lot of Thomas’ seven targets per game.

On Sunday, the Broncos host the Texans in a game where Denver’s pass catchers have a better matchup than the running backs. Houston is very tough against the run, ranking first in rush defense DVOA, but are average against the pass with a ranking of 14 when using the same metric. Last week, the Texans gave up stat lines of 6-134 and 5-43 to Devante Parker and Danny Amendola, respectively. We like Sutton to have a solid first game as a top-two option on the Broncos and we’re backing the Over on his receiving yards total.


CROWDED BACKFIELD IN BALTIMORE

Yesterday, we talked about how Ty Montgomery’s trade out of Green Bay benefited Aaron Jones and today we’ll look at the impact the trade has on the Ravens. Baltimore’s backfield has been difficult to predict all season and now it gets even muddier with Montgomery in the mix. For the most part, and especially over the last few games, Alex Collins has been getting early-down work with Buck Allen subbing in as a passing-down back. Montgomery was used as both this season in Green Bay, averaging 3.7 carries and 2.1 receptions per game.

Montgomery likely won’t be a huge part of the Ravens’ offense, especially not in his first game this week against the rival Steelers, but he might steal a series or two from Collins in what was already looking like a bad matchup. Collins has been getting almost all the carries of late, with 41 over his last three weeks, but he still hasn’t been able to rush for more than 54 yards in a game over that stretch. This week, he takes on a Steelers defense that has allowed just 66.4 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields. Take the Under on Collins’ rushing yards total.

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Teams to Watch - Week 9

Halloween may be the scariest day on the calendar each year, but given how the NFL season has gone to this point, there are few things more terrifying than trying to come up with some picks for the weekend. The level of parity in the league this season is unparalleled, although there are still a few teams who are excelling, as well as a few who are about as bad as it gets.

As we do before the start of every week of the NFL season, we are taking a look at a few teams to play and avoid this coming Sunday. Without further ado, let’s get right to the picks with all the odds, props and futures offered by YouWager.eu.

Chicago Bears (-500) at Buffalo Bills (+400)

When you talk about the worst teams in the NFL this season, you cannot have that conversation without talking about the Buffalo Bills. This is a team that does not have a legitimate starting QB and who have had a player retire at half-time earlier this season.

While the Bills are on a downward spiral, the Chicago Bears are on the way up. They have a solid young QB in Mitch Trubisky, as well as a defense that has been flourishing with the addition of Khalil Mack. The Bears are at the top of a crowded NFC North and can extend that lead with a win over the Bills this weekend. I will definitely be taking time to play the Chicago Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+130) at Baltimore Ravens (-150)

Whenever these two teams meet, we are usually always guaranteed some fireworks, which often comes at the expense of a lack of scoring. These two generally get caught up in big-hitting defensive battles with a mistake or a turnover very often flipping the game one way or another. The Steelers got off to a slow start, but they are starting to put things together, winning 3 in a row to take the lead in the division.

The Ravens are going in the opposite direction, losing 3 of their last 4. While the Ravens are at home for this one and already have a win over Pittsburgh this season, I am just not sold on them. I will be looking to avoid the Baltimore Ravens.

Houston Texans (+100) at Denver Broncos (-120)

Outside of the LA Rams, there are few teams in the league who are hotter than the Houston Texans are at the moment. After getting off to an 0-3 start, the Texans have now reeled off 5 straight wins to take control of the AFC South. Despite those wins, the Texans are a team that have made a habit of winning close games, which may explain why they are in as a slight underdog on the road in Denver this weekend.

The Broncos have some serious issues, though, not the least of which is at the QB position. They have lost 5 of their last 6, which is why I am going to play the Houston Texans.

Atlanta Falcons (+105) at Washington Redskins (-125)

The Atlanta Falcons are underperforming in a big way this season, although they have been hit rather hard by the injury bug in the first half. They are on a modest 2-game winning streak right now, but those victories came against a pair of struggling teams, the Buccaneers and the Giants, with neither one being particularly convincing.

The Falcons are winless on the road and have gone 0-2 ATS in the two other games that they started as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, the Redskins are at 5-2 after reeling off 3 straight wins. All of the signs would appear to be telling me to avoid the Atlanta Falcons.

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Thursday's Top Wager
November 1, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Preview – Oakland Raiders vs. San Francisco 49ers

The ugly dog matchup of the week in the NFL takes place on Thursday night, as the Oakland Raiders visit the San Francisco 49ers on FOX. Each team has only one win on the season, as the Raiders come into this game at 1-6, while the 49ers are 1-7. There has been some late line movement on this game toward Oakland, as San Francisco starting quarterback C.J. Beathard is questionable. Let’s look at this matchup on Thursday and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Thursday, November 1, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
NFL Odds at BetDSI: 49ers -2.5, O/U 45.5
Raiders vs. 49ers TV Coverage: FOX

The Raiders and 49ers are competing with the New York Giants for the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Even though both teams would be better off losing this game, the players want to win. It will also be the last meeting between the teams before the Raiders move to Las Vegas.

"I know it means a lot to everybody. So of course we want to go out and win this game. That's every week.” Raiders quarterback Derek Carr said to the media, “But we know how much it means to our fans and how excited they get for it. We're aware of that, but it doesn't change anything for us. We have to go out and just play well."

Carr has struggled this season for the Raiders, but much of his struggles are not his fault. He is completing 72 percent of his passes, but he has only 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has been sacked 17 times.

On the other side, the 49ers have been going with Beathard in place of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo who is out for the season and Beathard has played okay. He suffered an injured wrist last week and he may not play on Thursday. Nick Mullens would be the starter if Beathard can’t go. "C.J. (Beathard) would be good if we were playing on Sunday," 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said to the media on Tuesday, "But it's going to be a test for Thursday."

Gamblers may be overreacting to Beathard being out. Mullens actually had better numbers than Beathard in the preseason and Shanahan is very confident in Mullens. "(He is) as ready as you can be," Shanahan said. "Nick's a very smart guy who works at it nonstop. He'll be able to go in there and execute the offense and knows what he's doing.

Matchup to Watch

The matchup that should decide this game is the San Francisco running game against the Oakland rush defense. The Raiders are last in the league against the run, while the 49ers are 6th in the league in rushing. The 49ers should be able to run all over the Raiders in what could be a high scoring game.

Key Stats

The Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Under is 5-1 in the Raiders last 6 road games. The Over is 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 home games. The Under is 14-5 in the 49ers last 19 games in November.

Raiders vs. 49ers Picks

There is no question that this is a matchup between two struggling teams, but it might actually be a very good game. The Raiders looked better last week on offense and there is no reason they can’t score points against the San Francisco defense and the 49ers should be able to run the ball very effectively against a poor Oakland run defense.

The Raiders are last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, so I expect Matt Breida to have a big game for the 49ers. I don’t think it matters if it is Beathard or Mullens, as the 49ers are going to run effectively and score points against this Oakland defense. I will go over the total in this Thursday night contest.

Raiders vs. 49ers Pick: Over 45.5 at BetDSI
Raiders vs. 49ers Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Raiders 24

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Top Props - Raiders at 49ers
November 1, 2018
By Bookmaker

By Kyle Markus

NFL Game Props - Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

The “Thursday Night Football” game between the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco has about as much sizzle as a cold steak. However, a matchup between a pair of one-win teams can still be interesting when there is money on the line.

San Francisco will be a slight favorite in this matchup but the oddsmakers are expecting a competitive game between a pair of poor teams. In addition to the standard bets on the spread, moneyline and scoring total, there will be a host of prop bets as this matchup is on prime time.

This game may not mean much in the NFL scheme of things, but correctly dissecting what will happen will make bettors quite happy when this one is finished in NFL wagering.

This NFL football game between the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers will be held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California at 8:20 p.m ET on Thursday, November 1st, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on FOX and NFL Network.

We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The 49ers are listed as the 2.5-point favorites to take care of business in this matchup. They are in the midst of a long losing streak and could be down to their third-string quarterback but that tells you just how poorly things are going in Oakland. The Raiders are the +125 underdogs on the moneyline while the 49ers are -145 to pick up the win. The scoring total is listed at 46 points.

Those are the regular wagers but don’t be afraid to look at the prop bets because these are the ones that can really pay off nicely for those who have a good grasp as to how the game will unfold.

One of the prop bets asks if either team will score in the first 6½ minutes of the contest. The 49ers are coming off a defensive battle against the Cardinals while the Raiders got into a shootout against the Colts. Oakland has a solid quarterback in Derek Carr and a porous defense, so it seems like no matter if it gets the ball or kicks off, the “yes” is a good bet as there should be an early score in this one.

The 49ers’ point total is listed at 24.5, with the “over” and “under” each being wagered on at -115. Even though Oakland’s defense is bad, San Francisco does not have a very good offense and this total seems like it could be tough to reach. The 49ers have a great coach in Kyle Shanahan calling the plays but the talent on the field is lacking.

The 49ers got a safety last week against the Cardinals, paying off handsomely on that prop bet. If they do it again it pays off at +700. A “no” choice is the heavy favorite at -1500.

There is an interesting prop bet asking if this game will be decided by exactly three points. A lot of games in the NFL are decided by a field goal, and these teams seem very even talent-wise. The “yes” bet is the underdog at +300 but is an intriguing one. The “no” bet is listed at -450.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The best bet for this contest asks if either team will lead by more than 13.5 points. Even though the spread is small, each team has struggled so much that the “yes” wager makes a ton of sense. It’s hard to know which team is going to take control of this game, but for this gamble it doesn’t matter.

Someone figures to jump ahead by two touchdowns at some point, which will pay off nicely in NFL prop wagering.

NFL ATS Pick: Largest lead in the Raiders-49ers game will be “over” 13.5 points

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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OAK at SF 08:20 PM

OAK +1.0

O 44.0

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Mullens leads 49ers' rout of Raiders
November 1, 2018
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SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Nick Mullens got several hundred congratulatory text messages, a phone call from Brett Favre and his Twitter account verified.

Delivering the most productive game by a quarterback in his NFL debut since the merger leads to many accolades.

Mullens threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns and the San Francisco 49ers thoroughly dominated the Battle of the Bay, beating the Oakland Raiders 34-3 on Thursday night.

The former undrafted free agent out of Favre's alma mater Southern Mississippi finished 16 for 22 in place of the injured C.J. Beathard and had a 151.9 passer rating, the highest for a quarterback with at least 15 attempts in an NFL debut since the 1970 merger.

''I think I'm here for a reason. This is my opportunity to prove that I can play,'' Mullens said. ''Today's thing was just attack your job and worry about what matters. What mattered most tonight was the team and how we played.''

The Niners (2-7) couldn't have played much better in snapping a six-game losing streak and winning for just the second time in two years without Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.

Mullens threw TD passes to Pierre Garcon and Kendrick Bourne on the opening two drives and connected on a 71-yard one-handed catch-and-run play to George Kittle to set up a third TD pass to Kittle. Raheem Mostert added a 52-yard TD run and the defense generated eight sacks for the first time since 2009.

But the story of the game was Mullens, got rid of the ball quickly and took advantages of several breakdowns in coverage for big plays, including the 24-yard TD pass to a wide-open Garcon on the opening drive.

''It was cool that he didn't change under the big lights and these circumstances,'' cornerback Richard Sherman said. ''We're not really surprised. We've seen him do it in practice. He plays with a lot of confidence.''

With Garoppolo out for the season and Beathard having lost nine of 10 career starts, the inevitable question will be whether Mullens will take over as starter for the next game Nov. 12 against the New York Giants.

''We'll definitely consider it,'' coach Kyle Shanahan said. ''I'm definitely not thinking about it right now. Our whole team played very well. They definitely did.''

The Raiders (1-7) clearly didn't, losing for the fourth straight time, getting outscored by 85 points during the skid.

''I know it's not looking pretty right now,'' coach Jon Gruden said. ''I've heard a lot of negativity over the last six, seven months and rightfully so. But we're going to build a championship football team here.''

In what was perhaps the worst prime-time matchup in NFL history, only the Raiders played down to expectations. They provided little resistance on defense against an undrafted quarterback making his NFL debut, did nothing offensively after driving for as field goal on the opening drive and put together the most listless performance yet in Gruden's second stint as coach.

Carr finished 16 for 22 for 171 yards and was sacked seven times before being replaced by AJ McCarron in the fourth quarter. McCarron was sacked once behind a banged-up offensive line.

''It's a frustrating thing to be sitting on the record you have, be going through some of the things we're going through as an offense and still not being able to put points on the board,'' tight end Jared Cook said. ''It's definitely frustrating because we know the talent we have in this room is way better than that and way better than what we portray on the field.''

UNDER PRESSURE

Carr was sacked four times in the first half for the first time in his career as the Raiders struggled to provide much protection against a 49ers defense that has not generated much pressure all year. Dekoda Watson had 1 1/2 sacks in his first game of the season after getting activated from IR earlier in the day.

RING CEREMONY

Former Niners receiver Terrell Owens was presented his Hall of Fame ring at a halftime ceremony. Owens was voted into the Hall of Fame earlier this year but skipped the induction ceremony in Canton, Ohio, to hold his own celebration at his college in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Owens said he was upset at the voters who made him wait three years for the honor, saying he believed they brought in off-field issues into their deliberations instead of focusing solely on what Owens did as a player.

''This is awesome,'' Owens said before the game. ''This is an opportunity to give something to the fans. Ever since I left in 2003 and went on and did some great things, but this is where it started my first eight years of my career.''

INJURIES

Raiders left tackle Kolton Miller left with a knee injury. ... Mostert broke his forearm in the third quarter and will miss the rest of the season.

UP NEXT

Raiders: Host Los Angeles Chargers on Nov. 11.

49ers: Host New York Giants on Nov. 12.

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Friday’s 6-pack

— Louisiana Tech covered eight of last 10 games vs SEC teams.

— Cal Bears covered four of their last five road games.

— Air Force covered eight of its last nine visits to West Point.

— Home side covered last five Iowa State-Kansas games.

— Over is 7-1 in South Alabama’s last eight games.

— Navy is 7-3-1 in last 11 games as a double digit underdog.

Quote of the Day
“First of all, if you can’t play hungover you probably shouldn’t be in the league.”
NHL player Ryan Reaves

Friday’s quiz
Who was the Raiders’ QB the first time they won a Super Bowl?

Thursday’s quiz
Martin Sheen played the President of the United States in the old TV show The West Wing.

Wednesday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal played his college basketball at LSU.


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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) 49ers 34, Raiders 3— Last Battle of the Bay with Raiders moving to Las Vegas in two years; in his first NFL start, 49ers QB Nick Mullens looked like Daryle Lamonica, completing 16-22 passes for 262 yards and three TD’s- not a bad debut.

So if the 49ers put Mullens on the market today after that impressive display Thursday, what kind of draft pick could they get for him? He appears to be better than anyone Buffalo has, and he did break some of Brett Favre’s records at Southern Miss.

As for the Raiders, not a great effort- you could make a strong argument that they’ve quit.

12) We read about coaches making huge money in the NFL and in college ball, but lot of guys at lower levels struggle like hell to get to the top, or just to make a living where they are.

Back when he started out as a coach, from 1989-91, Mike Leach was an assistant coach at Iowa Wesleyan, making $12,000 a year. Leach was the team’s SID, video coordinator and the equipment coordinator- he also taught history and criminal law classes.

From there it was on to Valdosta State and Kentucky with Hal Mumme, then Oklahoma for a while before he landed the head coaching job at Texas Tech.

Now Leach makes a couple million a year, but he’s earned his way to this spot.

11) Four players who were teammates of both Michael Jordan and Lebron James:

Brendan Haywood, Larry Hughes, Jerry Stackhouse and Scott Williams.

Would be fun to see an hour TV show where those four guys tell some stories.

10) Someday in 5-6 years, Eli Manning is going to come up for a vote for the Pro Football Hall of Fame; he has won two Super Bowls, but his career record is 120-114, counting playoff games. His regular season record: 112-110.

If he starts every game the rest of the year, chances are his regular season record will wind up under .500, which isn’t very Hall of Fame-ish.

Jim Plunkett won two Super Bowls, had a 72-72 regular season record with an 8-2 playoff record but is nowhere near the Hall of Fame. Manning’s career is better than that, but not all that much better, just that he played in New Jersey and his brother/father are also famous.

9) Gonzaga’s big man Killian Tillie will be out around eight weeks after undergoing surgery for a stress fracture in his ankle. He averaged 12.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg LY and made 47% of his 3’s.

8) CBSSports.com ran an article Thursday on how Jordan Spieth didn’t win a tournament last year and what was wrong with his game?

Spieth earned $2,793,536 last year, not counting endorements; we should all struggle like that.

7) Mariano Rivera is part-owner of a Japanese company that recycles broken baseball bats into chopsticks; I’m not nearly creative enough to make that up.

6) Thru seven games, Steelers’ RB James Conner is averaging 5.8 yards/touch on 22.6 touches per game; last year thru seven games, Le’Veon Bell averaged 4.4 yards/touch on 28.9 touches per game, which may be part of why Bell is still sitting on the sidelines this year, and isn’t getting his $855,000 weekly salary.

5) In 37 states, you can vote before Election Day; this seems like a better way to do things.

4) Evidence that we might have too many TV channels, or not enough quality programming to fill those channels: The first National College Cornhole Championship, for $25,000 in scholarship money, will take place in Myrtle Beach on Dec. 29-30- it will be broadcast live on ESPN & ESPN2.

3) Winnipeg Jets beat Florida Panthers 4-2 in an NHL regular season games played Thursday over in Finland. Long road trip.

2) Marv Albert compared Thursday’s Bucks-Celtics game to an old ABA game, and he wasn’t being critical, just stating his opinion. Fast-paced, lot of 3’s, not a lot go great defense.

1) Handicapping 101- You like to wager on college football; how do you handicap the Michigan State-Maryland game Saturday?

Maryland had a player die during off-season trailing; as a result, the coach was suspended, but he was re-instated this week and he held his first practice Tuesday. The coach was re-instated even though a player DIED under his watch- not everyone was happy about this.

Around 6:30pm Tuesday, Maryland bowed to public pressure (and maybe internal pressure) and fired that coach, something that probably should’ve happened a while ago.

It is a horribly sad story, but if you’re in the handicapping business, how do you deal with this game? Michigan State is -2.5 at Maryland Saturday.

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NFL Football Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/01/2018 0-2-0 00.00% -11.50



Best Bets:

Best Bets For November

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

11/01/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50...................0 - 1................-5.50..............-11.50

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Jets-Dolphins Capsule Preview
November 1, 2018
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK JETS (3-5) at MIAMI (4-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

OPENING LINE - Dolphins by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New York 3-5, Miami 4-4

SERIES RECORD - Jets lead 54-50-1

LAST MEETING - Dolphins won at New York 20-12, Sept. 16, 2018

LAST WEEK - Jets lost at Bears 24-10; Dolphins lost at Texans 42-23

AP PRO32 RANKING - Jets No. 26, Dolphins No. 20.

JETS OFFENSE - OVERALL (29), RUSH (15), PASS (28).

JETS DEFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (21), PASS (19).

DOLPHINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (17T), PASS (23).

DOLPHINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (29T), PASS (23).

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Dolphins coach Adam Gase is 4-1 against Jets. ... Jets rookie Sam Darnold ranks 32nd with passer rating of 74.5. He's tied for league lead with 10 interceptions. His 55.2 completion percentage is second-lowest in NFL among QBs who have thrown at least 130 passes. ... Darnold leads all rookies with 1,705 yards passing and 11 TD passes. Passed for season-high 334 yards against Miami in Week 2. ... Jets defense is third-best on third-down conversions at 33 percent. ... Rookie TE Christopher Herndon has TD catch in past three games. He's tied with Philadelphia's Dallas Goedert for most touchdowns among rookie TEs with three. ... Jets' Andre Roberts leads NFL with punt return average of 18.1 yards. ... New York had 207 yards of total offense last week, third-lowest total in coach Todd Bowles' three-plus seasons. ... Gase 20-20 in regular season at Miami. That's same 40-game record as his predecessor, Joe Philbin. ... Dolphins have been outgained by 590 yards. ... In past three games, Miami has given up 600 yards rushing, average of 5.9 per play. During same stretch, opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 751 yards with 10 touchdown passes, one interception and passer rating of 143.9. ... Miami leading rusher Frank Gore has 77 career touchdowns rushing, but none this year. Dolphins have three, more than only Jaguars. ... Gore has 18,145 scrimmage yards and needs 46 to surpass Pro Football Hall of Famer Barry Sanders (18,190) for sixth-most in NFL history. ... Jakeem Grant leads NFL with average of 32.3 yards on kickoff returns. He's second - behind Jets' Roberts - with average of 17.4 on punt returns. ... Dolphins are tied for second with 11 interceptions but have no takeaways in past two weeks. ... Rookie LB Jerome Baker is only active Miami player with more than one sack. He has two. ... Fantasy Tip: Isaiah Crowell had Jets-record 219 yards rushing against Denver in Week 5, and he could find Dolphins' soft run defense equally inviting.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 9 Best Bets - Sides
November 1, 2018
By Bookmaker

Week 9 NFL Best Bets – Sides

Thanks to a fourth quarter scoring barrage by the Indianapolis Colts last week, my best bet for Week 8 was able to cash, pushing this mini-run to 4-0 ATS since the start of Week 6. That's a nice run for sure, but there is still plenty of football to be played this year and this business is all about getting that next winner and cashing that next ticket.

This week we've got a smaller board with six franchises getting the week off, but there is one division road underdog that appear to be quite live this week. Let's get to the play:

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: New York Jets +3

This is one of two games this week where the always popular “division rematch revenge angle” gets mentioned Ad nauseam (Pittsburgh vs Baltimore being the other game), but the revenge angle has little to do with my backing of New York here. Don't get me wrong, it doesn't exactly hurt the play, but this Miami team is just all around bad right now, and even at home probably don't deserve to be laying points against anyone.

Miami went into New York in Week 2 and took down the Jets by a 20-12 score, but now they are nowhere near the team they were then. Miami is 1-4 SU in their last five games overall, and they've allowed at least 27 points in all five of those games. Their lone win came as a big surprise against a Chicago Bears team that was taken aback by having to deal with QB Brock Osweiler rather than Ryan Tannehill, and Miami still needed a shocking 4th quarter comeback to force OT where they eventually won it.

Positive results like that haven't existed for Miami since then, as they lost their next two games by double-digits, giving up 30 or more each time. Considering that Miami's defense has allowed an average of 33.4 points per game during this five-game run, I just don't see how you can trust this team to win SU, regardless of the spread.

Granted, bettors looking to back Miami this week will counter with “but it's the Jets” as it's not like New York has looked all that impressive recently either with two straight losses by at least 14 points. New York was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and while a 3-5 SU record may suggest New York is well on their way to that distinction, NFL bettors know there are much worse teams than New York out there this season.

Those two recent losses also came against NFC teams, so this young Jets core should get a bit of leeway there considering it's tough for young guys to be at their best when their opponents are clearly the better squad and there is no sort of hate/emotion or rivalry involved.

That won't be the case this week with this being a divisional matchup, and while New York understands they are still in the early stages or rebuilding a contender, these are the types of games they've got to win/play well in to expedite their growth. Miami is the perfect foe for New York to accomplish that feat, especially when you consider that the Jets are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 trips to Miami.

Jets QB Sam Darnold is now eight games into his professional career, and while he's still got boatloads to learn, by no means is he as green (no pun intended) as he was the last time he faced this Dolphins team. In fact, this is the first time Darnold will have faced an opponent twice, and with Darnold's football IQ being one of his best attributes according to those around him, I believe we see that in full display this week in his second go around against this Miami defense that gives up plenty of points to everyone.

New York may be getting plenty of support because of the revenge angle that many NFL bettors are quick to point out. However, when you dig a lot deeper into this matchup and see that all three of the Jets wins this year have come when they've scored 30+, and that's a number Miami's been giving up on a weekly basis, New York getting their outright revenge makes plenty of sense.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 9 Best Bets - Totals
November 1, 2018
By Bookmaker

Week 9 NFL Best Bets – Totals

My lone best bet for totals last week managed to do no harm as the Eagles/Jaguars game landed on 42 points to give me a push. Bettors who may have waited to play that total likely got burned as the number closed at 44.5, so it goes to show you that getting your action in during the week can end up being a solid option.

The Week 9 totals we've got on the board are overly tough in my opinion as oddsmakers seem to finally be comfortable posting some very high totals (60ish in the Rams/Saints game) as scoring continues to be up this year. Scoring across the league may be down from the first few weeks when all those bush league rougher the passer penalties were being doled out, but teams are still averaging 24.1 points per game.

No NFL season has finished with a league average score that high, as the closest a season finished to that number was 23.4 points back in 2013. We've seen many 'under' tickets cash as a result, but this week I'm backing a play where I do believe the number is still a little low.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Pittsburgh/Baltimore Over 47.5

Since losing to Baltimore 26-14 back in the final week of September, the Pittsburgh Steelers have seemingly got their act together and have gone 3-0 SU and ATS since then. That Ravens loss was the second straight week Pittsburgh had been shut out in a 2nd half, and that simply shouldn't happen for how much talent the Steelers offense has – even without Le'Veon Bell.

Pittsburgh has averaged 34 points per game in those three wins since, and with Baltimore's defense suddenly looking a bit shaky – and more importantly putting things on film Pittsburgh should exploit – I do believe this Steelers attack will continue to roll.

Baltimore's defense was praised as one of teh best in the league for the first month or so, but coughing up the lead late to New Orleans two weeks ago may have erased all those thoughts. The Ravens followed that performance up by giving up 36 to Carolina last week, as Cam Newton basically had his way with Baltimore, going 21-for-29 for 2 TD's and ran in for another. Joe Flacco didn't help his own cause with two INT's, but protecting the ball has never been Flacco's forte.

Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is just as big and strong as Newton, and while he won't take off and run like Newton does very often, he's a much more accurate passer that can make much more happen through the air. With Pittsburgh's offense rolling right now, it's hard to see them not scoring at least 24+ points here.

You do need both offenses to contribute for an 'over' to hit though, and Baltimore's attack is one that's scored 20+ points themselves in their last three games. At home this year the Ravens average 32.3 points per game, and having studied how well Pittsburgh's offense has been doing the past few weeks, Joe Flacco and company have to figure they'll need 28+ to likely come away with a victory. Pittsburgh's defense, while improved, can still be had with the big play, and with the big play potential on Baltimore from guys like Willie Snead and John Brown, the Ravens won't be shy about trying to blow the top off the Steelers defense with some deep shots.

Finally, the Pittsburgh/Baltimore rivalry is widely regarded as one of the best divisional rivalries of the past decade, but what goes along with that sentiment is the notion that these two always play tight, low-scoring games. It's tough to argue with the “tight” part as five of the last seven meetings have been decided by a TD or less, but only once since the start of the 2014 season have both Steelers/Ravens games cashed 'under' tickets in a respective year (2015). The past two years have seen the first meeting stay 'under' the number with the return match sailing well 'over' (58 and 77 points respectively), and wouldn't you know it, the first meeting in 2018 fits that mold as well.

With Baltimore on a 6-2 O/U run after failing to cover a point spread, 6-3 O/U the last nine years prior to their bye week, and Pittsburgh 6-2 O/U in their last eight division games and 8-3 O/U off a SU win, I'm betting we get 50+ points from these two teams in another game between these two that's likely decided late in the final frame.