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Week 9 Best Bets - Teasers
November 1, 2018
By BetOnline.ag
NFL Week 9 Exotic Betting Options
Sports betting can be a fickle mistress at times as last week's two-team teaser failed to get there by a measly half-point. Pittsburgh had no problem dispatching the Browns, but the Rams and specifically Todd Gurley – who made a tremendous decision in going down before the end zone to end the game – ended up costing me this play.
As much as it sucks to lose a play like that, it was refreshing to see a guy like Gurley make the decision to go down there because you see so many idiotic decisions from coaches and players in today's NFL that a tremendous winning decision like that should be celebrated, regardless of point spread or fantasy repercussions.
Gurley's decision to go down wasn't even the worst part about losing last week's teaser though as had I waited until Saturday or Sunday when the point spread on L.A moved to -8 and -7.5 respectively, the teaser would have hit. Timing the market is always tough though, and like I said, sports betting can be a fickle mistress.
It's on to Week 9 now, as you can't dwell on those kind of defeats for long, so hopefully I can get back in the winner's circle with this week's teaser play.
Odds per - BetOnline.ag
Week 9: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet
Atlanta (+9) – Tampa Bay (+13.5)
The Washington Redskins may be entering Week 9 with a 5-2 SU record and sitting in 1st place in the NFC East, but despite three wins (SU and ATS) in a row, I'm still not a believer in this squad. All three of these victories came when Washington closed as either a +1 underdog or -1 favorite and those games came against offensively challenged teams in Carolina, Dallas, and the New York Giants.
The latter two are obviously division rivals of Washington, and teams off two consecutive division games tend to be in a tough spot the following week regardless. However, when said opponent is also an offensive juggernaut like Atlanta that's also coming off a bye week, Washington's prospects to win this game my more than a TD really look bleak.
Washington may be on a three-game winning streak, but none of those wins have come by more than a TD. Holding the Panthers, Cowboys, and Giants to 17 points or less is somewhat impressive, but Dallas and New York rank 26th and 28th respectively in points scored per game as neither of them average more than 20 per contest.
Carolina is more comparable to Atlanta in that the Panthers average 25.4/game (12th in NFL) with Atlanta sitting in 11th at 27.1/game, but you've also got to remember that Carolina's 36-point effort last week while Atlanta was off really spiked the Panthers numbers there. The Falcons may have numerous issues on defense, but they can score with the best of them in this league, and that may be all that's needed to keep this game within this teased number for the Falcons.
Moving over to Tampa Bay, the Bucs have already seen some support as their point spread has moved down to +6.5 after opening as a full TD underdog. Tampa's going back with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick after Winston's turnover filled performance in Cincinnati, and whether or not that carousel continues to spin the rest of the year remains to be seen. Fitzpatrick may be considered a better “relief QB” as opposed to a starter, but having already won and lost the starting role this year because of his propensity to turn the ball over, you would hope he has learned from those mistakes and be a little more protective of the ball.
Fitzpatrick will still have some of that gunslinger mentality inside of him this week as it's what propelled Tampa to a backdoor ATS win a week ago, and when you've got a guy like that that's always willing to take shots, taking all the points you can with said team is never a horrible idea.
Yes, Tampa's defense continues to be atrocious, but the 37 points the Bengals scored last week can't all be hung on the Bucs defense. One of those Winston INT's was returned to the house, while the other three set Cincinnati up with great field position that they would end up taking advantage of with multiple scores. If Fitzpatrick can avoid handing Carolina great field position numerous times, Tampa's offense should be able to keep them within this 13-point teased spread as they've shown all year that they are never really out of games.
Only one of Tampa's games this year has been decided by more than eight points (48-10 loss at Chicago in Fitzpatrick's last start), and with the road team 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two organizations, adding that extra cushion of points by teasing the Bucs through key numbers of +7, +10 and +13 should be plenty this week.
November 1, 2018
By BetOnline.ag
NFL Week 9 Exotic Betting Options
Sports betting can be a fickle mistress at times as last week's two-team teaser failed to get there by a measly half-point. Pittsburgh had no problem dispatching the Browns, but the Rams and specifically Todd Gurley – who made a tremendous decision in going down before the end zone to end the game – ended up costing me this play.
As much as it sucks to lose a play like that, it was refreshing to see a guy like Gurley make the decision to go down there because you see so many idiotic decisions from coaches and players in today's NFL that a tremendous winning decision like that should be celebrated, regardless of point spread or fantasy repercussions.
Gurley's decision to go down wasn't even the worst part about losing last week's teaser though as had I waited until Saturday or Sunday when the point spread on L.A moved to -8 and -7.5 respectively, the teaser would have hit. Timing the market is always tough though, and like I said, sports betting can be a fickle mistress.
It's on to Week 9 now, as you can't dwell on those kind of defeats for long, so hopefully I can get back in the winner's circle with this week's teaser play.
Odds per - BetOnline.ag
Week 9: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet
Atlanta (+9) – Tampa Bay (+13.5)
The Washington Redskins may be entering Week 9 with a 5-2 SU record and sitting in 1st place in the NFC East, but despite three wins (SU and ATS) in a row, I'm still not a believer in this squad. All three of these victories came when Washington closed as either a +1 underdog or -1 favorite and those games came against offensively challenged teams in Carolina, Dallas, and the New York Giants.
The latter two are obviously division rivals of Washington, and teams off two consecutive division games tend to be in a tough spot the following week regardless. However, when said opponent is also an offensive juggernaut like Atlanta that's also coming off a bye week, Washington's prospects to win this game my more than a TD really look bleak.
Washington may be on a three-game winning streak, but none of those wins have come by more than a TD. Holding the Panthers, Cowboys, and Giants to 17 points or less is somewhat impressive, but Dallas and New York rank 26th and 28th respectively in points scored per game as neither of them average more than 20 per contest.
Carolina is more comparable to Atlanta in that the Panthers average 25.4/game (12th in NFL) with Atlanta sitting in 11th at 27.1/game, but you've also got to remember that Carolina's 36-point effort last week while Atlanta was off really spiked the Panthers numbers there. The Falcons may have numerous issues on defense, but they can score with the best of them in this league, and that may be all that's needed to keep this game within this teased number for the Falcons.
Moving over to Tampa Bay, the Bucs have already seen some support as their point spread has moved down to +6.5 after opening as a full TD underdog. Tampa's going back with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick after Winston's turnover filled performance in Cincinnati, and whether or not that carousel continues to spin the rest of the year remains to be seen. Fitzpatrick may be considered a better “relief QB” as opposed to a starter, but having already won and lost the starting role this year because of his propensity to turn the ball over, you would hope he has learned from those mistakes and be a little more protective of the ball.
Fitzpatrick will still have some of that gunslinger mentality inside of him this week as it's what propelled Tampa to a backdoor ATS win a week ago, and when you've got a guy like that that's always willing to take shots, taking all the points you can with said team is never a horrible idea.
Yes, Tampa's defense continues to be atrocious, but the 37 points the Bengals scored last week can't all be hung on the Bucs defense. One of those Winston INT's was returned to the house, while the other three set Cincinnati up with great field position that they would end up taking advantage of with multiple scores. If Fitzpatrick can avoid handing Carolina great field position numerous times, Tampa's offense should be able to keep them within this 13-point teased spread as they've shown all year that they are never really out of games.
Only one of Tampa's games this year has been decided by more than eight points (48-10 loss at Chicago in Fitzpatrick's last start), and with the road team 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two organizations, adding that extra cushion of points by teasing the Bucs through key numbers of +7, +10 and +13 should be plenty this week.
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