Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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SNF - Chiefs at Patriots
October 12, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 6 SNF Betting Preview
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots

Last week, I was wrong in expecting the shootout on the scoreboard that SNF TV producers have been anxiously awaiting for weeks, as the Dallas/Houston game was plagued by missed opportunities in the red zone and subsequently never threatened going 'over' the total.

However, regardless of whether or not this week's SNF game cashes an 'over' ticket or not, those SNF TV producers should be getting all those points they want to see from this Kansas City/New England matchup we've got this week.

With a total now currently approaching 60 – an extreme rarity for the NFL as it's only happened once before (2004) – there will be plenty of points scored in this game, but where should your money be?

YouWager.eu Odds: New England (-3.5); Total set at 59.5

Oddsmakers really had no choice but to open up this total as high as possible given how well the KC offense has produced points on a weekly basis this season (35 points per game), and that it's Tom Brady and New England on the other sideline. This is the juiciest game of the week in the eyes of many NFL fans simply for the scoring potential it has, as even with the extremely high total, it's still got a lot of 'over' money already.

However, as much as seemingly everything lines up for an 'over' play, I want no part of trying to sweat out a NFL game getting to 60 points. Kansas City's offense should find plenty of room to make plays against this Patriots defense if they like they have all year long, but you know Bill Belichick will have something special for Patrick Mahomes at least once, and you fall too far behind pace on this total and eventually you'll run out of time. I've got no problem sitting back on the sidelines and watching to see if this total does end up getting surpassed, but from a betting standpoint, it's all about the side here.

It can be tricky to handicap a game when you've got an upstart undefeated squad against a past champion that never seems to go away. How much to this year's numbers/stats outweigh what your eyeballs have seen from a team like New England for years, if at all, and how willing are you to potentially step in front of a hot, undefeated ATS bet like Kansas City? These are the type of questions to ask yourself at the beginning stage of handicapping any game, and when the matchup is as anticipated as this one is – for a variety of reasons – you can see arguments and action coming in for both sides. Yet, for me this is all about one specific unit on one side of the ball and it's the Kansas City defense.

A big part of why this total is approaching historic levels is because of this Kansas City defense that's basically been Swiss cheese all year long. Eventually a defense that is 3rd worst in the entire league in yards allowed per play (6.5) is going to get burned both SU and ATS. It probably should have happened already for the Chiefs in their last primetime game against the Broncos a few weeks back, but once again Patrick Mahomes and the offense were able to catch fire for just long enough to take the lead and leave minimal time on the clock for their Swiss cheese defense to hold on.

So how has Kansas City managed to go 5-0 SU and ATS with such a bad defense overall? Well, that would be a highly unsustainable 3rd down defense for KC that only allows opponents to convert on 29% of their 3rd downs. Getting off the field on 3rd down has meant everything to Kansas City's success defensively this year, and the more possessions that offense gets, the better KC has to like their chances. That's how it's played out for them through five weeks, but things should be plenty different against New England.

To start, Brady and company have had extra time to prepare a gameplan that not only takes advantages of this KC defense on each play, but one where they can have long, sustained drives where they are often left with short 3rd down tries if needed. Obviously it sounds easier said then done, but with the short dump off game Brady likes to play with his RB's, and the potential for big chunk plays off those looks, Belichick and Brady should have minimal issues picking apart this highly suspect defense. KC's 3rd down conversion percentage can only really go up from here on out, and unless that yards per play number drops significantly – highly unlikely against New England – this KC defense is a spark away from getting torched for 60 minutes.

And on the other side of the ball, New England has been known for it's bend but don't break defense in suspected shootouts and that's got to be the mentality for any team going up against the Chiefs. Denver had it working for about three quarters against KC with just 1 TD and 2 FG's allowed, and I do think New England is capable of carrying that type of play out for the full 60 minutes. Like I said earlier, Belichick will have a few tricks up his sleeve for the young Mahomes too, so look for this Patriots defense to possibly have some surprising success this week.

All in all, it adds up to a play on the home side here for a variety of reasons. For one, I don't believe that if this game were played on a neutral field that the line would be basically at a pick'em as this number suggests. New England based on their history alone is always going to be at least -2 there, and if that's the case it means we've actually got quite a bit of value on the Pats at home at just -3.5. Yes, that nasty hook at -3.5 is a deterrent for those that lean New England, especially since the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS, but offense eventually dries up in this league, and with the defense the Chiefs have, their undefeated record SU and ATS looks to me like nothing more than a house of cards that's bound to crash soon.

I'm betting that KC crash comes this week against a Patriots team that has so many things working in their favor for this spot (more rest, home field, getting healthier/finding rhythm). New England is on a 20-7 ATS run after covering the number in their last outing, and a 16-6 ATS run in their last 22 against a team with a winning record serves as a reminder that they've put down these upstart contenders many times before. I don't think that hook on the -3.5 will matter either as New England comes out and makes a statement here with a double-digit victory.

Odds per - YouWager.eu

Best Bet: New England -3.5

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Week 6 Best Bets - Parlay
October 12, 2018
By BetOnline.ag

NFL Week 6 Exotic Betting Options

The perfect record on these teasers this year stayed in tact with last week's play on the Bengals and Seahawks, although hitting on the Bengals was a little lucky. How Miami doesn't cover a +6.5 full game number when they entered the 4th up 17-3 is beyond me, but I'll gladly take the win and move on to this week.

Week 6 should be a good one given how many point spreads are lined at -3.5 or lower, and with the bulk of them currently sitting at +2.5 or lower, the solid teaser options become fewer and fewer. You always like to tease teams through +7 and +10 if you can, and that just can't happen as often with these current numbers. So that perfect teaser record is going to last another week, as this week things get changed up a bit.

With so many tight spreads across the board, a money line parlay looks like the better option to back this week, so let's get right to it:

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Week 6: Two-team ML Teaser Best Bet

Indianapolis ML (+115) – Pittsburgh (+100) = +330 odds overall

The young New York Jets were able to return home with an impressive win over Denver a week ago, but I don't think we see two straight from them here. The Colts have had extra rest after that TNF loss up in New England, and while Indy is still a banged up squad, the extra time off never hurts, especially if they do end up getting RB Marlon Mack back this week. Even just having the threat of a consistent running attack helps take the heat of QB Andrew Luck, but the Colts should be able to take this game outright either way.

Indy knows that their record could be a lot better than the 1-4 SU mark they've got, yet, even with how bad it's been, they still are capable of getting back into the race in the AFC South. Falling to 1-5 with a loss to this Jets team with a rookie QB likely kills all chances of saving the season for Indy, and after a couple of down years in a row, Indy can't afford to waste another year of Luck's prime this early on in the campaign.

Don't let last week's win over Denver by New York skew your long term perspective of a Jets team that still had one of the lowest season win totals in the league. The Jets took advantage of a great situational spot they were in last week against Denver and that was it. They are a team still learning how to win, and with Indy essentially fighting for their season, I don't believe the Jets have what it takes to battle through that and make it two in a row.

Pittsburgh is another team that's basically fighting to save their 2018 season this week as a loss to the first place Cincinnati Bengals would have them three full games back of top spot (essentially 3.5) and looking at a steep uphill climb just to make the playoffs. But this Steelers team is too talented to already have this season blow up in their face – even more than it already has in Pittsburgh with the off-field drama – and this is exactly the type of game the Steelers have won in the Big Ben era: Beat the Bengals when things are going good for Cincinnati.

Last week I wrote about how the Bengals never get caught looking ahead to Pittsburgh games as they are now 9-0 SU (8-1 ATS) the past four years + one game the week before Steelers games. But you know what Cincinnati's record was in those eight games against Pittsburgh the following week? 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS.

Things haven't even been that good for the Bengals the past two years, but Pittsburgh continues to beat the Bengals like the little brother Steelers fans view them as. The Bengals have looked great in this 4-1 SU start, but just like in the past when bettors/fans start believing in Cincy, that belief tends to get crushed in a hurry and usually around the time a Steelers game is on the horizon.

That's what we've got with this matchup, as Pittsburgh is really playing for everything right now and can't afford to drop a game to anyone. The fact that it's Cincinnati on the other side of the field is only added motivation for Pittsburgh to show up and beat down this hated rival one more time. At an underdog price, with the better team that's underperformed so far, it's the only way to go.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 6
October 12, 2018
By Micah Roberts

There's a possibility of light snow in Denver on Sunday when the 2-3 Broncos welcome the 5-0 Rams high flying offense and both public and sharp money have already shown who they like in the match-up.

"We've had some sharp action on the Broncos (+7) and maybe it's because of the possible weather conditions," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The the public are sticking with the Rams and betting them on parlays and teasers."

Simbal said the Rams are their largest parlay risk game of the week so far, and coupled with the Patriots would be the worse two-teamer of the house as of Friday afternoon. He has the Rams -7 EVEN now.

The sharp/public divide on the Rams game is the same at William Hill's 100s of books across Nevada and all the other states they've laid claim to. They've taken 59 percent of all the cash on the game on the Broncos, but 69 percent of the tickets have been written on the Rams.

When the weekend crowd hits Las Vegas, that ticket percentage number is only going to climb and it will end up being the root game for most books to winning or losing on the day. If the Rams win and cover, all the other winners scattered around in Week 6 Sunday action will filter into the 3-2 Patriots who are 3.5-point home favorites to the 5-0 Chiefs.

"We've got lots already on the Patriots," Simbal said. "We've just been moving the money rather than move to -3.5 and we're up to -3 (-125) now."

Most books in Las Vegas are either -3.5 flat or -3.5 EVEN, so that could be the reason for CG books getting so much from smarts laying just -3 -120 when moving off the number is probably worth a 25 cent buy since it's the most landed on number in the NFL.

I have a feeling the weekend crowd that arrives is going to balance the game out for the house with wagers on the Chiefs. Yes, the Patriots have won and covered all three of their home games, but from my psychological approach into the minds of the betting masses, they'll more value on the Chiefs getting points just because they're the only team to be a perfect 5-0 ATS. That means if the Rams cover at Denver, that both the Chiefs and Patriots be equally risky with parlay liability.

Those are the two biggie games of Week 6 and it makes sense with the three of the best and most popular betting teams involved, a group the Broncos used to be part of. It used to be the case where if Denver was a home dog, it was a no-brainer to take the points against anyone, but these Rams have earned the right to be the NFL's top-rated team. Denver is 0-4-1 ATS, the only team to not cover a spread this season.

Of course, there are some other games that matter in Week 6.

"The interesting thing about the Bears-Dolphins game is that we've had two separate sharp groups bet each side," said Simbal who moved the Bears from -3-flat, up the money ladder to -3 -125 and he's now -3.5 (-105).

William Hill books have taken 75 percent of their cash on the game on the Bears and also 75 percent of the tickets written. The Bears come in with the No. 1 defense and have won their last three while the Dolphins have lost their last two -- both on the road. Is this a small case of bettors believing more what they saw last than remembering Miami won and covered their first three games?

"We're also going to need the Bills quite a bit, we've had lots of big bets on Houston since DeShaun Watson (chest) was upgraded to probable," Simbal said. "They could have laid -7 earlier in the week when he was questionable, all the way up to -9.5, but they laid -10 and we're currently at Texans -10 (-115)."

That's one that has me scratching my head. Houston has underperformed, sure, but they have a pattern developing -- such as 1-9 ATS in their last 10 -- that suggest they're only 4 points better on a neutral field. The Bills have won and covered against playoff teams from last season, Minnesota and Tennessee.

"We had some respected money lay -3 with the Jaguars at Dallas, and then took a couple total plays as well," said Simbal. They like the Vikings game Over 43 and the Jets game Over 45 and then they took the Unders on the Patriots game (59.5) and Bills game (41)."

CG Tech books have the Jaguars -3 (-120), like most books in town, but the Wynn is at -3.5 EVEN and the South Point is -3-flat, bit telling stories in different ways.

Good luck this week everyone, go back and get that money back from the books most left there last Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
October 13, 2018
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 15-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since Oct 30, 2011 off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Broncos are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since Dec 14, 2008 and as a dog of at least three points with a total of at least 46 coming off a game where they scored less than 31 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 7-0 OU (5.6 ppg) since Sep 25, 2016 at home facing a team Ryan Tannehill threw for at least 250 yards against last meeting.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Texans are 0-11-1 OU (-10.5 ppg) since Dec 22, 2011 as a favorite coming off a home game where they allowed less than 200 passing yards

SBB’s NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Titans are 16-0-1 OU (10.3 ppg) since Oct 01, 2006 as a dog coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 12-0 ATS (+15.38 ppg) off a loss in which they scored at least 9.75 points more than their season-to-date average.

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Total Talk - Week 6
October 13, 2018
By Chris David

The ‘over’ went 8-7 in Week 5 and the high side is 42-36 (54%) on the season. A couple of those ‘over’ tickets were fortunate to come through last weekend. Bettors who played the ‘under’ in the Falcons-Steelers or Cardinals-49ers matchups, please accept our apologies.

2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 5 8-7 5-10 8-7
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 42-36 37-41 35-39-4

2018 RESULTS - OTHER
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 5 1-1 2-2 1-1 1-0
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 11-9 11-12 10-4 4-1

Along with the overall totals market, you can see above that the non-conference games and divisional matchups have been practically even this season as well. However, there has been a solid ‘over’ spike for games played indoors and though the sample size isn’t larger, the Coast-to-Coast angle is trending up.

For that trend, I like to include teams heading East or West by two different time zones. Last week, Denver ventured to New York to play the Jets, it’s second trip to the East Coast this season and second ‘over’ ticket. This week, the L.A. Chargers head to Cleveland and that contest would fit the criteria.

Keep an Eye On

-- Totals in the fifties went 5-1 to the ‘over’ last week. This Sunday, there are four games sitting with totals listed in this range or higher. On the season, the ‘over’ is 10-7 in games that have closed above 50.

-- Teams off the bye saw the ‘over’ go 2-0 last week as the Panthers (31) and Redskins (43) gave up a combined 76 points. This week, Chicago and Tampa Bay will be playing with rest at Miami and Atlanta respectively.

-- The NFL International Series returns in Week 6 as the Seahawks and Raiders will play from Wembley Stadium at 1:00 p.m. ET – a night game instead of the usual afternoon contest. There haven't been many total trends in these games with the 'over' holding an 11-10 edge in the first 21 games played from the UK and that includes a 2-2 stalemate last season. Seattle has never played in London but the Raiders made the overseas trip in 2014 and they were blasted 38-14 by the Dolphins.

-- The popular “Thursday Night Total” system improved to 4-0 last week as the Rams and Seahawks played to a shootout. The angle calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. This week, the Chiefs-Patriots matchup fits for Week 6 since New England played at home last Thursday versus Indianapolis.

-- Readers of Total Talk may recall the "Road Total System" that I've wrote about in the past. It's in play for Week 6 and the angle calls for bettors to play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game. This week, the Ravens will head to the Titans for their third straight on the road. Last season, this situation watched the 'over' go 5-3 and the record stands at 44-23 (66%) in the last 12 seasons.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 6 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Chicago at Miami: 43 ½ to 41 ½
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 54 ½ to 50
Kansas City at New England: 58 to 60

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 6 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets: Over 96%
San Francisco at Green Bay: Over 94%
Seattle at Oakland: Over 84%
Kansas City at New England: Over 82%
L.A. Chargers at Cleveland: Over 77%

A user emailed me recently and asked about the above percentages and what should bettors do – fade or follow? While some sites, handicappers, bettors will tell you to blindly go against the public lean, which isn’t a terrible idea, my suggestion would be to use it as a resource in your handicapping toolbox. In the long run, fading the public will make you money but that consistent routine requires time, money, etc…If it was that easy, everybody would be doing it, right? Keep in mind that the public does win and the most popular leans noted in Week 5 went 4-1 (80%).

Divisional Matchups

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: These teams played to a pair of ‘over’ winners last season but bettors had to put in 60 minutes as both outcomes ended with 43 points (29-14, 23-20). The totals on those games (40, 42.5) were much lower than this week’s number (51 ½). Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have both watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season and it’s easy to see why when you look at the offense and defensive scoring numbers for both the Steelers (28.6 PPG, 26.6 PPG) and Bengals (30.6 PPG, 26 PPG).

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four matchups in this series but the pair haven’t seen this high of a total (57) since a number of 51 of posted in 2012. Similar to the AFC North matchup above, the Buccaneers (4-0) and Falcons (4-1) have been great ‘over’ wagers this season. And those records have been helped by the lack of defense, with Tampa Bay (34.8 PPG) and Atlanta (32.6 PPG) ranked 32nd and 31st in scoring. The Bucs will be playing with rest and they’ve watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last five games off the bye.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ holds a 9-8 mark through 17 primetime games this season and that includes Thursday’s ‘over’ winner between the Eagles and Giants. For those keeping track, the TNF matchup is 4-2 to the high side this season.

SNF – Kansas City at New England: As of Saturday morning, this total is sitting at 60. The Chiefs will bring the 2nd best scoring offense (35 PPG) into this matchup against a New England team that has posted 38 points on the board each of the last two weeks. While the Chiefs total offense (No. 5, 413 YPG) has shown the ability to move the ball, the same can’t be said for New England (No. 23, 357 YPG). However, the Pats will be facing the worst ranked total defense in the Chiefs (461 YPG). Kansas City is known to score quickly but a lot of pundits believe New England will try to keep the offense off the field and grind it out on the ground. Since Andy Reid arrived in KC, the Chiefs have watched the ‘over’ cash in all three encounters against the Patriots and that includes last year’s 42-27 win at Foxboro. Make a note that the SNF matchup has watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight weeks and we haven’t seen any team go over 30 points this season on the NBC telecast

MNF – San Francisco at Green Bay: This is another matchup that features both teams with 4-1 ‘over’ records. The 49ers defense (29.2 PPG) doesn’t appear to be great from a scoring perspective but they are ranked 10th (348.4 YPG) in total defense. Same thing goes for the Packers defense, who are ranked fourth overall (313 YPG) in yards but they’ve surrendered 22.8 PPG. In Week 3, Green Bay allowed 31 at Washington and rebounded with a 22-0 shutout win at home over Buffalo. Last Sunday, the Lions put up 31 on the Packers at Ford Field and something tells me we could see GB defense step up at Lambeau Field under the lights.

Fearless Predictions

The Cardinals-49ers ‘under’ last week cost us a profit last week and kept us in that ‘splitsville’ neighborhood ($10) once again. We haven’t had a winning week since the opener but we’re still ahead ($155) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Kansas City-New England 60
Best Under: Under L.A. Rams-Denver 52
Best Team Total: Under Chicago Bears 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 39 L.A. Chargers-Cleveland
Under 50 ½ Arizona-Minnesota
Under 48 Jacksonville-Dallas

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Sunday Blitz - Week 6
October 13, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Bears (-3 ½, 41 ½) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST

These two squads are going in different directions as Chicago (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) is fresh off the bye week. Following a Week 1 meltdown loss at Green Bay, the Bears have turned things around to sit atop the NFC North after winning three straight games. The latest victory was the most impressive offensive performance so far as quarterback Mitchell Trubisky threw for 354 yards and six touchdowns in a 48-10 home blowout of Tampa Bay. The Bears put together a 1-6 SU/ATS mark as a favorite from 2015-17, but are 2-0 SU/ATS this season when laying points.

The Dolphins (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) began the season with three consecutive wins, but fell on the road the last two weeks at New England and Cincinnati. Miami built a 17-0 advantage at Cincinnati last Sunday, but allowed 27 unanswered points, capped off by two defensive touchdowns in a 27-17 defeat as 6 ½-point underdogs. However, the best offensive performances from Miami have come at home, scoring 27 and 28 points in two victories at Hard Rock Stadium.

Miami dominated Chicago in its previous matchup at Soldier Field in 2014 as three-point underdogs, 27-14. The Dolphins have hit the OVER in each of their two home games, as Miami tries to improve on a 6-3-1 ATS record at Hard Rock Stadium under head coach Adam Gase. Chicago is riding a 6-1 run to the UNDER in its last seven road contests, while Chicago’s defense has limited opponents to 17 points or fewer in three straight contests.

Best Bet: Bears 17, Dolphins 16

Steelers at Bengals (-2, 51 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh (2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) was in desperate need of a win last Sunday and came through in a 41-17 home blowout of slumping Atlanta. The Steelers reached the end zone six times, including a pair of connections by Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown to give Pittsburgh its first win at Heinz Field this season. Pittsburgh scored its most points on the season, while allowing the fewest in a game, as the Steelers busted the OVER for the fourth time in five contests.

The Bengals (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) are sitting atop the AFC North through five weeks, as Cincinnati is looking for its second divisional win of the season. Cincinnati cashed the OVER in each of the first four games before hitting the UNDER in last Sunday’s comeback triumph against Miami. The Bengals’ offense didn’t produce much as Andy Dalton hit Joe Mixon on an 18-yard touchdown pass to start a 24-0 rally in the fourth quarter.

Pittsburgh has owned Cincinnati the last few seasons by winning the past six meetings since 2015. The Steelers haven’t lost at Paul Brown Stadium since 2013, while owning an 11-2-1 mark against divisional foes dating back to 2016. This is a big two-week stretch for Cincinnati, who travels to Kansas City for a Sunday night affair next week and can be in the running for a first-round bye or falling back in the AFC North as Pittsburgh starts a three-game period against the division.

Best Bet: Bengals 28, Steelers 24

Jaguars (-3, 40 ½) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) makes its first trip to Dallas since a 35-17 victory in 2010 as 6 ½-point underdogs. Now, the roles are flipped (albeit eight years later) as the Jaguars try to rebound from last Sunday’s 30-14 drubbing at Kansas City. The Jags had their opportunities in the first half, but couldn’t convert on fourth-and-one at the Chiefs’ three-yard line, lost a fumble, Blake Bortles threw a pick-six, and was finally intercepted in the end zone with 19 seconds remaining before halftime as they fell behind, 20-0.

Dallas (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) has been consistently inconsistent this season as the Cowboys have yet to win consecutive games and haven’t dropped back-to-back contests. So does that mean Dallas will win this week? The Cowboys dropped a 19-16 overtime decision at Houston last Sunday night, as running back Ezekiel Elliott was limited to a season-low 54 yards on the ground. The Cowboys fell to 0-3 on the road, but Dallas is unbeaten in two home contests by beating the Giants and Lions.

Under head coach Doug Marrone, the Jaguars have done an excellent job of rebound off a loss since the start of 2017. Jacksonville owns a 6-1 record in this span, while not allowing more than 15 points in any of these contests. The Cowboys have stumbled to a 2-5 ATS mark as an underdog since 2017, which includes a 1-2 ATS record at AT&T Stadium last season.

Best Bet: Jaguars 23, Cowboys 17

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 14-9-2 on season)
Chargers -1
Dolphins +3
Buccaneers +3 ½
Broncos +6 ½
Patriots -3 ½

Chris David (5-0 last week, 17-8 on season)
Vikings -10
Chargers -1
Colts +2 ½
Texans -9 ½
Titans +2 ½

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (4-1)
Texans over Bills

Chris David (4-1)
Texans over Bills

BEST TOTAL PLAY (0-1 last week, 3-2 this season)

UNDER 51 ½ - Rams at Broncos

Temperatures are not expected to be ideal in Colorado on Sunday as kickoff should be in the low 20’s along with the chance of light snow flurries. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in each of their first five games (all wins), while allowing 31 points in each of the past two weeks against the Vikings and Seahawks. The Broncos’ offense hasn’t accomplished much since scoring 27 points in the opening week win against Seattle, as Denver has been limited 20 points or fewer in three of the past four weeks. Denver’s defense stepped up in its only home underdog opportunity against Kansas City by holding the Chiefs to 13 points for the first 52 minutes before the Chiefs posted two late touchdowns for the win.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

When will the Falcons get back on track? Atlanta sits at the bottom of the NFC South through five weeks with a 1-4 record, while allowing 43, 37, and 41 points the past three games. The Falcons host the Buccaneers on Sunday as the dreaded three-point home favorite, while Tampa Bay is fresh off the bye week. Tampa Bay should be focused following a 48-20 drubbing at Chicago, while trying to avenge a pair of losses to Atlanta last season. In Jameis Winston’s last three matchups with Atlanta, the Bucs’ quarterback has thrown 10 touchdown passes and has been intercepted only once, as he looks to have a field day against the beat-up Falcons’ secondary.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Bills didn’t look like they would win a game all season following blowout losses to the Ravens and Chargers in the first two weeks. But, Buffalo is trying to keep its head above water after beating Minnesota and Tennessee in the last few weeks to get to 2-3. The Bills travel to Houston to face the Texans as this game opened with Houston as 8 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook. With the news of quarterback Deshaun Watson now listed as probable, the line has moved to the Texans laying 10 points at most books, the most points Houston has been favored by in the Bill O’Brien era.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Redskins were blitzed by the Saints on Monday night as Drew Brees broke the NFL record for most passing yards in a career. Washington looks to reset things at home against Carolina as the Redskins have thrived in this situation. What’s the situation? Under head coach Jay Gruden, the Redskins have compiled an impressive 8-1-1 home record since 2015 off a loss or tie on the road.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 6
October 13, 2018
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5

Week 6

1) Pittsburgh +2.5 (1,092)

2) New England -3.5 (1,004)

3) Jacksonville -3 (838)

4) Chicago -3 (799)

5) Indianapolis +2.5 (773)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Philadelphia (-3) 161 N.Y. Giants (+3) 327
Arizona (+10) 179 Minnesota (-10) 637
L.A. Chargers (-1) 691 Cleveland (+1) 642
Chicago (-3) 799 Miami (+3) 520
Carolina (+1) 587 Washington (-1) 541
Indianapolis (+2.5) 773 N.Y. Jets (-2.5) 307
Pittsburgh (+2.5) 1092 Cincinnati (-2.5) 354
Tampa Bay (+3.5) 326 Atlanta (-3.5) 766
Seattle (-3) 585 Oakland (+3) 228
Buffalo (+9.5) 375 Houston (-9.5) 269
L.A. Rams (-6.5) 469 Denver (+6.5) 635
Jacksonville (-3) 838 Dallas (+3) 316
Baltimore (-2.5) 426 Tennessee (+2.5) 594
Kansas City (+3.5) 514 New England (-3.5) 1004
San Francisco (+9.5) 160 Green Bay (-9.5) 445


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 3-2 7-8 47%
4 3-2 10-10 50%
5 1-4 11-14 44%

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Underdogs: Week 6 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

If you haven’t heard, you suck at sports betting. At least, you do if you consider yourself among the “betting public”.

Don’t know if you’re included in the masses? Check your forehead. Symptoms of “public bettors” may include:

• Waiting until Sunday to place all your bets
• Betting on a side/total regardless of where the number has been/where it’s going
• Basing bets on something called the “due factor”
• Ignoring markets like props and alternative lines, and blindly sticking to full-game odds
• Getting your insight exclusively from mainstream sports media coverage

If you catch yourself doing one or more of these things (and there are plenty of other “public” tells), you just might be a public bettor. And if you are, there’s also a good chance you’ve taken a Tony Montana-sized bath in the opening five weeks of NFL football.

According to our consensus, which provides the bet percentage (percent of ATS tickets written on a side) for each and every game, NFL teams drawing 60 percent or more of bets are a dismal 10-23 against the closing spread in 2018. That means the most popular picks each week are covering for the public only 30.3 percent of the time. You can almost hear the bookies laughing from here.

It's been even worse for "Joe Public" the past four weeks, with those same 60-plus percent picks turning out a 5-19 ATS mark (0-4 ATS in Week 5). That’s a win rate of less than 21 percent for the most popular pointspread plays since the second week of the schedule.

But, let he who is without square angles cast the first stone.

I’ll be the first to admit that sometimes my inner “public bettor” gets the best of me, and I bet a bad number just to have action down on a game. And, despite the eye-popping and bankroll-busting trend we just mentioned, I’m siding with one of the most public picks on the Week 6 consensus board.

The Buffalo Bills are getting 10 points when visiting the Houston Texans this Sunday and 61 percent of bettors have grabbed that pile of points and are circling the wagons.

The line opened -8.5 Houston and made a quick jump to -10 – a move that many would consider “reverse line movement” since the spread is moving away from the side with the higher number of bets (usually indicating more money or sharp play on the other side). However, 8.5 points is a dead number in terms of setting spreads and books are much quicker to move off of that dead number and go straight to 10 if they expect more money will come in on the favorite. This is what we’re seeing here.

The Texans don’t have the horse power to cover the 10-point gulf. Minus a 37-point day versus the Colts’ dismal defense in Week 4, Houston is averaging just 19.5 points over its other four contests. And for all the Bills’ woes, they’ve been solid on defense since the second half of the Chargers game in Week 2. Over its past three contests, Buffalo has allowed a total of just 40 points (13.3 ppg) and is giving up only 4.9 yards per play – fifth lowest in the NFL in that span.

So, paint me “public” in Week 6. They seem due for a good Sunday…

Pick: Buffalo +10

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+3.5, 41.5)

To re-establish my “sharpness” after such a public play (at least that’s what it sounds like in my head…), I’m banking on a line I was waiting to show up all week. The Bears opened -2.5 at most books (some opened pick’em) visiting the Miami Dolphins and the spread quickly shot to -3.

This one stinks of a field goal to me, which is why I took my time and waited for the half-point hook to show on the home side. This one actually climbed to Dolphins +4 at a couple shops but sharp money snatched that up right away (it was on the board for only an hour and a half).

Chicago is coming off a bye and riding a three-game winning streak – which sounds great, doesn’t it? But the Bears are a bad bet on the road, going 6-12 ATS in their last 18 away from the Windy City and are 0-2 ATS on the road this season. Another factor I’m throwing into my “pointspread stew” is that Chicago takes on the mighty Patriots next week, so a possible lookahead spot in play for Week 6.

Miami is being discounted for two poor road showings – getting outscored 65-24 in those games – and had played three of its last four away from Hard Rock Stadium before this week. It returns home where it is 2-0 SU and ATS and has covered in four of its last five stands overall.

Pick: Miami +3.5


Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7, 52)

After three weeks of football, talking heads were ready to crown the Rams the best defense in the NFL. Then they allowed 31 points in back-to-back games, including a 33-31 squeaker versus Seattle, which was averaging just over 21 points in the four games leading up to Week 5.

Over the past three outings, L.A. has given up an average of 392 yards against and watched opponents convert on third downs 54 percent of the time – second worst in the NFL, behind Atlanta, in that stretch. It wasn't the forward pass doing all the damage: L.A. buckled for an average of 128.3 rushing yards against over that trio of tilts, including 190 gains on the ground versus Seattle Sunday.

Los Angeles finds itself in a tough spot, going to the thin air of Mile High for what is its second straight road game (and the middle of three straight away from home). The Broncos are a different team in Denver, as we saw in that valiant effort versus the Chiefs, and have the ground game to play keep-away from Jared Goff & Co.

I’d love to get +7.5 on this one but I settle for the touchdown and the home team.

Pick: Denver +7

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 10-5 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

Ticket count favors Chiefs, but sharps like Patriots' odds in NFL Week 6 clash
Patrick Everson

Julian Edelman and his New England teammates get an opportunity to knock Kansas City from the ranks of the unbeaten Sunday night. The host Patriots have seen some smart money at -3.5.

There’s a baker’s dozen of NFL games on this Week 7 Sunday, and the best has been saved for last. We check in on the action and line movement for a few games, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, and Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots – Open: -3.5; Move: None

The past two weeks, New England has looked much more like the perennial king of the AFC. The Patriots (3-2 SU and ATS) twice put up 38 points, including in a 38-24 victory over Indianapolis as 10.5-point home favorites in Week 5.

Kansas City puts its perfect 5-0 SU and ATS mark on the line for this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. The Chiefs had no issues with Jacksonville last week, cruising to a 30-14 win as 3-point home chalk.

“Tickets are about 3/1 on the ‘dog Chiefs here, but we’ve seen some sharp groups on the Patriots,” Murray said of pointspread activity. “Expect Bill Belichick to try to run the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field. The Chiefs are giving up the most yards per carry in the NFL, at 5.8.”

The Mirage and other MGM books opened the Pats -3.5 and briefly went to 4 Saturday before returning to the opener.

“Really good two-way on this game,” Shelton said. “It’s 2/1 money on the Patriots and 2/1 tickets on the Chiefs. We’re a small loser to the Patriots.”

A potential concern for both books will be parlay/moneyline tickets rolling into the final game of the day, with both teams a liability risk.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -2.5; Move: -1.5

Pittsburgh has been inconsistent at best this year without Le’Veon Bell, but got an easy win and cover last week as a 3.5-point home fave against Atlanta. The Steelers (2-2-1 ATS) outscored the Falcons 28-7 in the second half en route to a 41-17 victory.

Cincinnati finds itself all alone atop the AFC North through five weeks. The Bengals (4-1 SU and ATS) battled back from a 17-0 third-quarter deficit to beat Miami 27-17 laying 6.5 points at home in Week 5.

The issue for MGM books is a recurring theme: one very large bettor is on the Steelers, both moneyline and pointspread. The same bettor has hit on a few such wagers the past few weeks.

“We’re gonna need the Bengals pretty good as of right now,” Shelton said. “And it’s all because of that one bettor.”

The Superbook also opened the Steelers -2.5.

“A little sharp money on the Steelers knocked it down to 1.5,” Murray said. “The Steelers are also a popular teaser play for people going up through 3 and 7.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -3

Dallas is not off to a good start this season, but fortunately, neither is the rest of the NFC East. The Cowboys were catching 3.5 points at Houston last Sunday night and got the cash, but not the win in a 19-16 overtime setback.

Jacksonville reached the AFC title game last year and got a convincing win over New England in Week 2 this season, but subsequently dropped two of three. The Jaguars (3-2 SU and ATS) tumbled at Kansas City 30-14 as 3-point road ‘dogs last week.

“We had a respected player take Dallas +3 (even money) today. The public is heavy on the Jaguars,” Murray said of this 4:25 p.m. ET start. “This will be a heavily bet game on both sides in that afternoon time slot.”

The aforementioned large player is on Jacksonville pointspread and moneyline at MGM books, helping move the line from -3 (even) to -3.5 (even).

“But that one’s not so bad,” Shelton said. “The public is playing the Cowboys enough to offset the big bettor.”

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins – Open: +3, Move: +3.5; Move: +4

Chicago is on a three-game winning streak and well-rested, coming off a bye in Week 5. The Bears (3-1 SU and ATS) had their most explosive output of the season in Week 4, throttling Tampa Bay 48-10 as 3-point home favorites.

Miami won and cashed in its first three games, then lost and failed to cash in back-to-back roadies. In Week 5 at Cincinnati, the Dolphins (3-2 SU and ATS) held a 17-0 third-quarter lead, but fell apart in a 27-17 loss catching 6.5 points.

Once again, MGM books face significant pointspread and moneyline liability from the lone large bettor.

“If Chicago wins by more than 4, it’s a big loss for us,” Shelton said.

The Superbook opened Chicago -2 and got all the way to -4.5 by Saturday night.

“Sharps and public on the Bears, pushing this number up,” Murray said. “The book will need Miami.”

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Chiefs at Patriots

Last week, I was wrong in expecting the shootout on the scoreboard that SNF TV producers have been anxiously awaiting for weeks, as the Dallas/Houston game was plagued by missed opportunities in the red zone and subsequently never threatened going 'over' the total.

However, regardless of whether or not this week's SNF game cashes an 'over' ticket or not, those SNF TV producers should be getting all those points they want to see from this Kansas City/New England matchup we've got this week.

With a total now currently approaching 60 – an extreme rarity for the NFL as it's only happened once before (2004) – there will be plenty of points scored in this game, but where should your money be?

Odds: New England (-3.5); Total set at 59.5

Oddsmakers really had no choice but to open up this total as high as possible given how well the KC offense has produced points on a weekly basis this season (35 points per game), and that it's Tom Brady and New England on the other sideline. This is the juiciest game of the week in the eyes of many NFL fans simply for the scoring potential it has, as even with the extremely high total, it's still got a lot of 'over' money already.

However, as much as seemingly everything lines up for an 'over' play, I want no part of trying to sweat out a NFL game getting to 60 points. Kansas City's offense should find plenty of room to make plays against this Patriots defense if they like they have all year long, but you know Bill Belichick will have something special for Patrick Mahomes at least once, and you fall too far behind pace on this total and eventually you'll run out of time. I've got no problem sitting back on the sidelines and watching to see if this total does end up getting surpassed, but from a betting standpoint, it's all about the side here.

It can be tricky to handicap a game when you've got an upstart undefeated squad against a past champion that never seems to go away. How much to this year's numbers/stats outweigh what your eyeballs have seen from a team like New England for years, if at all, and how willing are you to potentially step in front of a hot, undefeated ATS bet like Kansas City? These are the type of questions to ask yourself at the beginning stage of handicapping any game, and when the matchup is as anticipated as this one is – for a variety of reasons – you can see arguments and action coming in for both sides. Yet, for me this is all about one specific unit on one side of the ball and it's the Kansas City defense.

A big part of why this total is approaching historic levels is because of this Kansas City defense that's basically been Swiss cheese all year long. Eventually a defense that is 3rd worst in the entire league in yards allowed per play (6.5) is going to get burned both SU and ATS. It probably should have happened already for the Chiefs in their last primetime game against the Broncos a few weeks back, but once again Patrick Mahomes and the offense were able to catch fire for just long enough to take the lead and leave minimal time on the clock for their Swiss cheese defense to hold on.

So how has Kansas City managed to go 5-0 SU and ATS with such a bad defense overall? Well, that would be a highly unsustainable 3rd down defense for KC that only allows opponents to convert on 29% of their 3rd downs. Getting off the field on 3rd down has meant everything to Kansas City's success defensively this year, and the more possessions that offense gets, the better KC has to like their chances. That's how it's played out for them through five weeks, but things should be plenty different against New England.

To start, Brady and company have had extra time to prepare a gameplan that not only takes advantages of this KC defense on each play, but one where they can have long, sustained drives where they are often left with short 3rd down tries if needed. Obviously it sounds easier said then done, but with the short dump off game Brady likes to play with his RB's, and the potential for big chunk plays off those looks, Belichick and Brady should have minimal issues picking apart this highly suspect defense. KC's 3rd down conversion percentage can only really go up from here on out, and unless that yards per play number drops significantly – highly unlikely against New England – this KC defense is a spark away from getting torched for 60 minutes.

And on the other side of the ball, New England has been known for it's bend but don't break defense in suspected shootouts and that's got to be the mentality for any team going up against the Chiefs. Denver had it working for about three quarters against KC with just 1 TD and 2 FG's allowed, and I do think New England is capable of carrying that type of play out for the full 60 minutes. Like I said earlier, Belichick will have a few tricks up his sleeve for the young Mahomes too, so look for this Patriots defense to possibly have some surprising success this week.

All in all, it adds up to a play on the home side here for a variety of reasons. For one, I don't believe that if this game were played on a neutral field that the line would be basically at a pick'em as this number suggests. New England based on their history alone is always going to be at least -2 there, and if that's the case it means we've actually got quite a bit of value on the Pats at home at just -3.5. Yes, that nasty hook at -3.5 is a deterrent for those that lean New England, especially since the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS, but offense eventually dries up in this league, and with the defense the Chiefs have, their undefeated record SU and ATS looks to me like nothing more than a house of cards that's bound to crash soon.

I'm betting that KC crash comes this week against a Patriots team that has so many things working in their favor for this spot (more rest, home field, getting healthier/finding rhythm). New England is on a 20-7 ATS run after covering the number in their last outing, and a 16-6 ATS run in their last 22 against a team with a winning record serves as a reminder that they've put down these upstart contenders many times before. I don't think that hook on the -3.5 will matter either as New England comes out and makes a statement here with a double-digit victory.

[StarDust Bum]

Essentials - Week 6
Tony Mejia

Sunday

Arizona at Minnesota (-10/44), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Cardinals picked up the first victory of the Steve Wilks/Josh Rosen era last weekend in Santa Clara, scoring a season-high 28 points. Arizona’s output in a 10-point win over the 49ers is misleading since they scored on a 23-yard fumble return to really swing a tight game and then capitalized on a short field for the second time to put the game away. The only offensive score that finished off a drive of over 26 yards came on a 75-yard pass from Rosen to fellow rookie Christian Kirk, so it remains to be seen whether this group can string together sustained possessions on the road against Minnesota. It won’t help if tackle Andrew Smith (shoulder/elbow) and guard Mike Iupati are unable to go after missing practice time this week, but both guys are expected to be in the mix despite being listed as ‘questionable.’

It’s been a challenging first few weeks for a Vikings defense that has given up big plays in unexpectedly getting carved up by a banged-up Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff in addition to being run over by rookie Josh Allen. Last week’s win over the Eagles featured their best performance despite surrendering a pair of long fourth-quarter drives, but they did hold the defending champs to just a pair of field goals for three quarters. Minnesota has missed DE Everson Griffen (mental issues) and won’t have safety Andrew Sendejo in this one, but there are enough pieces in place to expect a strong performance at home. QB Kirk Cousins has completed 141 passes over his last four games, throwing for an average of 361 yards and nine touchdowns. He’s earning his money so far, but needs to be wary of not letting Patrick Peterson make an impact. The Vikings lost their only game as a double-digit favorite outright against Buffalo and are 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS in this role as heavy chalk over the past season-plus. RB Dalvin Cook is likely to play despite the hamstring injury that has limited him the past few weeks, but tackle Riley Reiff will be unable to play. The Chargers have won four of six against Cleveland but failed to cover in any of the games, last doing so in 2004.

L.A. Chargers at Cleveland (-1.5/47), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Browns have won multiple games in a season for the first time since 2015 and can match that season’s win total with a victory here, but what is even more impressive is that they’ve been in position to win in every fourth quarter, either up or driving for a game-winning score. Cleveland seeks out consecutive wins for the first time since November 2014 after squandering a late lead in Oakland to close September in their first opportunity to string together victories. Rookie No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards last week and faces a Chargers defense still without top DE Joey Bosa. Corey Liuget did return for L.A. last week to help upgrade the level of play on the defensive front and helped hold the Raiders to just 10 points. This game's biggest question mark surrounds the availability of Chargers tackles Russell Okung and Joe Barksdale, who are expected to play despite being listed as game-time decisions.

The Chargers will be playing outside California for only the second time this season, having won in Buffalo on Sept. 15. L.A. is averaging 27.4 points per game and is looking to put together a three-game winning streak that would improve them to 10-3 over their last 13 regular-season games. Philip Rivers has a 13-2 TD-INT ration thus far this season that will be tested by a defense that leads the NFL with 15 takeaways. For all the credit Mayfield is rightfully getting, safety Denzel Ward has been their most impactful rookie. He had an interception and blocked a field goal last week and has a forced fumble, a recovery and three picks on an impressive ever-growing resume. Terrance Mitchell remains sidelined by a broken wrist, so the Browns will need E.J. Gaines to continue stepping up as a starter in a rebuilt secondary that is entrusted with a lot considering how often the defense brings the blitz. Rivers has been pressured 49 times thus far and has a completion percentage of nearly 70 percent with four TDs and no INTs when facing heat, building up an NFL-high QB rating of 128.8 when under pressure. After temperatures dipped into the upper 30s overnight, both teams will be treated to a clear day with perfect fall football conditions come kickoff.

Chicago (-4/41.5) at Miami, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: At one point, it appeared inevitable that Adam Gase would be in the position Matt Nagy currently holds with the Bears, being lauded for their revival in part due to his offensive ingenuity. After putting in a solid year of work as offensive coordinator in Chicago under John Fox, the Dolphins hired him. He immediately reached the playoffs and is now looking to pick up where he left off in ’16 with Ryan Tannehill back under center. Unfortunately, Tannehill (shoulder) is unlikely to play this week, unable to heal up enough for Week 6. Brock Osweiler is expected to start. Nagy, who replaced Gase’s former boss, is having similar first-year success in overseeing Mitch Trubisky’s improvement, so there are a lot of similarities despite these teams playing in separate conferences and running into one another only every four years. Both employ creative offensive systems reliant on speed, blocking and clever schemes, so the team that executes best is likely to thrive here. The Bears beat the Cards as a road favorite earlier this season but didn't cover and haven't been in this position multiple times in the same season since 2013.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast but may come later in the day, which means they’ll get this one in under humid conditions with temperatures in the high 80s. That may be more of an adjustment for the Bears, but coming in off a bye should aid their cause. The time off has allowed corner Prince Amukamara and rookie WR Anthony Miller to get healthy, so Chicago has that advantage over a Dolphins team that will again be missing pass rusher Cameron Wake and may again be without WR DeVante Parker. Guard Laremy Tunsil (conucission) will be out there to try and help Miami snap a two-game losing streak by protecting whoever lines up under center. The Bears defense has surrendered just 13.7 points during their current three-game winning streak and lead NFL in sacks per game (4.5) with Khalil Mack imposing his will. Tannehill has been sacked 11 times and would be extremely vulnerable if Tunsil suffers a setback. His backup, Sam Young, flopped miserably in Cincinnati and was cut, so swing tackle Zach Sterup would have to play if Tunsil is unable to.

Carolina at Washington (-1/44.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Grahama Gano’s 63-yard field goad to beat the Giants prevented this past week around the Panthers’ facility from being awful. In blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead to New York, Carolina put itself in position to heed warnings and refocus all week without suffering any of the sting of actually losing. Meanwhile, the ‘Skins are facing a short-week situation after losing in New Orleans on Monday but can exit Week 6 with the NFC East lead with a victory here. The spotlight is on former Panthers star corner Josh Norman in the D.C. area since he’s gotten sliced up and reportedly got benched by head coach Jay Gruden after refusing to take off headphones at halftime of the Saints loss, so we’ll see whether Cam Newton will be able to make his week even worse.

Newton has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last three games and has run for three scores on the season, so not having a true No. 1 receiver hasn’t derailed him thus far. He’s expected to get top target Greg Olsen back after missing the last few weeks with a broken foot. Defensively, the Panthers are also getting closer to full strength with LB Thomas Davis’ suspension over and DT Kawann Short set to play following an ankle injury. Carolina is looking to extend its winning streak over the ‘Skins to six, last losing at FedEx Field back in ’06. Alex Smith beat the Packers last time he was in front of his new team’s fans at home but played terribly against the Saints and could get irrevocable proof that the natives are restless if he struggles here since they seem ready to boo him. It doesn’t help his cause that RB Chris Thompson has already been ruled out, removing one of his favorite and most effective check-down options. WRs Jamison Crowder (ankle), Paul Richardson (knee) and Josh Doctson (head) all have injury concerns to be aware of and late word is Crowder is doubtful to play. RB Adrian Peterson (shoulder) is likely to be in for a heavy workload as long as Washington can hang around.

Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets (-2.5/47.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Jets are in the unfamiliar position of favorite for the second time this season and are hoping to handle the role with more success than they did in losing their Week 2 home opener against Miami. Not only does form play a large role in the spread, but also health, since the Colts feature one of the NFL’s longest injury reports. Starting guard Matt Slauson is the latest lineman ruled out, while center Ryan Kelly is a huge question mark. Safety Clayton Geathers remains out, one of a number of defensive catalysts that won’t participate for Indy, while WR T.Y. Hilton is considered doubtful due to a hamstring issue. As a result, Andrew Luck is playing with a lot of inexperience surrounding him on that side of the ball.

New York rookie Sam Darnold has benefited by continuity on an offense that hasn’t faced the same health-related obstacles as Indy. RB Isaiah Crowell, one of the key cogs in their early success in handling carries in tandem with Bilal Powell, has been upgraded to probable despite an ankle issue. He ranks third in the NFL is yards from scrimmage. The Jets will be without corner Trumaine Johnson (quad) and fellow DB Buster Skrine (concussion), so their secondary depth will be suspect in this one. New York has covered in eight of its last 11 home games.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-1.5/51), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Steelers CB Joe Haden may be in a different uniform than the one he wore for years with the Browns, but the division remains the same. Although he no longer has to cover Antonio Brown, the challenge of dealing with A.J. Green remains and should play a critical role in this one. Andy Dalton has gone to his top target when it has mattered most despite looking to spread the ball out among receivers better, resulting in the emergence of No. 2 wideout Tyler Boyd. The Steelers defense comes off an impressive performance against the Falcons and will be looking to slow a Cincy attack that rallied for a turnover-driven 27-17 win over the Dolphins last week and has managed to top the 30-point mark in three of 2018’s five games.

Pittsburgh remains reliant on James Conner for to handle running back duties for another week before Le’Veon Bell is back following next week’s bye, so he’ll be looking to leave a lasting impression to try and keep at least some share of the workload. Cincinnati got RB Joe Mixon back last week and watched him pick up 115 yards of offense, supplying juice that Giovani Bernard simply couldn’t when Mixon absent. The Steelers have won eight of nine in the series, including the last five over their AFC North rival. They’ve won four straight in Cincy, last losing in 2013, and have averaged 30.5 points in the victories. Both teams come into this game relatively healthy, with few new injuries popping up last week. Pittsburgh remains without safety Morgan Burnett while Cincy has lost TE Tyler Eifert for the season and won’t get back speedster John Ross, who remains out with a groin injury. Light rain is in the forecast all afternoon but shouldn’t play too much of a role.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3/57), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Jameis Winston returns to his role as the unquestioned starter after serving out his suspension and sitting behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for a disastrous half in a lopsided loss to Chicago. The former No. 1 pick finished out the 48-10 loss to the Bears and took first-team reps during the bye week, so he’ll be good to go here as he tries to pick up where Ben Roethlisberger left off in torching the Falcons’ depleted defense. DT Grady Jarrett remains sidelined for Atlanta, which combined with a depleted secondary and the loss of top LB Deion Jones in Week 1, has really left its group exposed. New Orleans, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have combined to average over 40 points per game in handing Dan Quinn’s group their last three losses.

Matt Ryan has been inconsistent in attempting to have the offense make up for the defense’s deficiencies but will give the Falcons their best chance to win since he’s been cleared to participate despite a minor foot injury. RB Devonta Freeman is out again following a brief return to the lineup, so the Bucs will have to deal with backups Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith, who have done a nice job filling in. Despite all the attrition, Atlanta is at home and favored to defeat Tampa Bay for a fourth straight time. The Bucs’ last win in this series came at Mercedes-Benz Stadium to open the 2016 season.

Seattle (-3/48) at Oakland, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This game will be played in London’s Wembley Stadium, so there will be no Black Hole for Russell Wilson to be concerned with. What will trouble him is the potential lack of a tight end, a staple in a Wilson-run offense, since preferred target Will Dissly injured a knee to open the month and backup Nick Vannett is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Tyrone Swopes has been promoted from the practice squad and will play in London, so that could be one challenge the Seahawks will have to overcome. Another could be rain, which Seattle would obviously be used to given its climate and the fact it has played a couple of games dealing with inclement weather already this season. Wind will also be a factor across the pond.

The Raiders were held to a season-low 10 points by the Chargers last week and could be down multiple starting offensive linemen with guard Kelechi Osemele listed as doubtful. Oakland missed him last week and is already down tackle Donald Penn. Combined with an inability to generate pressure without sending multiple blitzers, Jon Gruden isn’t getting a lot from the team he inherited and won’t benefit from being the “home” team here. Wilson has been sacked 18 times this season since he lets plays develop, often buying time for them, and has a suspect offensive line himself, so if the Raiders can’t get to him, they’re at risk of getting embarrassed overseas. One way to counter being put at a disadvantage is to feed Marshawn Lynch and work the clock, so that could be a strategy in this one, potentially combining with the weather to deliver on the low-side of the posted total.

L.A. Rams (-7/51) at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: - The Rams will have to deal with one of the league’s premier pass rushers in Von Miller, but the element that may slow them down most could be snow. The fast-paced offense that has empowered Jared Goff and produced more than 30 points in all five of the team’s wins this season will have to deal with the elements in Denver, where it has been snowing off and on overnight and should feature a steady sprinkling of Santa’s salt throughout this contest.

Fortunately for the L.A., it will get back Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp after both left last week’s game with concussions, so the Broncos’ secondary should still be tested considering winds aren’t expected to compliment the snow flurries. After getting carved up by the Jets in New York, count on the Broncos being locked in to keep from getting embarrassed at Mile High. Keep in mind that this team has done their best work there, beating the Seahawks and Raiders to open the season 2-0 and losing to the Chiefs late in a game that they led throughout. Denver’s defense held Kansas City to a season-low 27 points in that Monday night loss, so there’s certainly proof that this unit can still step up and being a factor on that side of the ball despite losing Aqib Talib. Replacement Adam Jones (leg) has been ruled out for this one, but the secondary does get Darian Stewart (foot) and Tramaine Brock (groin) in the mix to deal with an offense that has produced an ‘over’ in each of their last three wins.

Jacksonville (-3/40) at Dallas, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: The Cowboys follow up their disappointing overtime loss at Houston by hosting the Jaguars in a game that carries high stakes since a loss would drop them to 2-4, which even in a wide open and disappointing NFC East, puts their hopes of serious playoff contention in doubt. Owner/GM Jerry Jones criticized Jason Garrett’s decision to punt and not gamble on 4th down in OT but gave him the vote of confidence later in the week, so it’s anyone’s guess whether the long-time Cowboys coach and former backup QB would keep his job on Monday if things go poorly here.

Dallas won’t have to deal with Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette, who remains sidelined by a hamstring injury. Blake Bortles threw for 430 yards in last week’s loss in Kansas City but ended up being picked up four times as the Chiefs employed a strategy of dropping defenders into coverage and forcing Bortles to make throws to beat them, resulting in numerous red zone stops. The Cowboys won’t have top LB Sean Lee in the mix to help them effectively execute a similar look, but are likely to have Demarcus Lawrence in the mix in addition to David Irving. Defensive end Randy Gregory and DT Maliek Collins are question marks, so the front seven is likely to be led by emerging backup linebacker Jaylon Smith and rookie first-round pick Leighton Vander Esch. The 'under' has prevailed in eight of the Cowboys' last nine games and is 3-2 in Jags' contests.

Baltimore (-2.5/43) at Tennessee, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: The Ravens had no one to blame but themselves in losing to the Browns, a statement that takes nothing away from how improved Cleveland looks. Joe Flacco played his worst game of a resurgent season and left a number of throws out there, wasting an excellent effort from a defense that has emerged as one of the NFL’s best, allowing just 12.3 points over the last three games. We’ll see if they can continue executing n that side of the ball despite a few injuries in the secondary, but they’re playing the right team for that in these Titans.

Due to Marcus Mariota’s elbow issues, he’s not looking to throw the ball down the field, although the speed and ability of last year’s top pick, Corey Davis, still produces a threat who must be respected. Getting tackle Taylor Lewan in the mix to help protect Mariota provides a boost, especially given how effectively the Ravens have been able to pressure QBs to date. Tennessee’s defense remains without safety Kenny Vaccaro (elbow), won’t have LB Will Compton (hamstring) and lists DT Bennie Logan (elbow) and LB Wesley Woodyard (shoulder) as game-time decisions. Rain is likely to impact this contest too.

Kansas City at New England (-3.5/59.5), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC: This is being billed as battle between QBs Tom Brady and the emerging Pat Mahomes or as a summit meeting between elite tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce, so few are mentioning what will ultimately decide this shootout. Since both teams are capable of producing big plays through the air, it’s the ability of both defenses to get off the field and minimize damage that should produce results here. To that end, one can understand why the Patriots are favored. It’s more complicated than simply coming out of the home locker room at Gillette Stadium.

Justin Houston, one of the top pass rushers in the game, is doubtful with a hamstring issue that should have Brady breathing a sign of relief. Safety Eric Berry is also unlikely to play, while versatile DB Eric Murray is also out. Rookie safety Armani Watts is questionable with a groin injury and will be a game-time decision, so an untested patchwork group will be out there in the Chiefs secondary attempting to keep Brady from carving them up. The Patriots list corner Eric Rowe as questionable in addition to DT Danny Shelton, Geneo Grissom and DE John Simon, but all those guys should play. Temperatures are expected to dip into the low 40s, but wind won’t stand in the way of a shootout if neither defense does.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


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Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total............19-13-0.........59.37%.....+23.50

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Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals......................5 - 7...................-8.50....................9 - 5................+17.50............+9.00

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at OAK
SEA -3.0
U 48.0

TB at ATL
TB +3.0
O 57.0

ARI at MIN
MIN -10.0
U 43.5

LAC at CLE
LAC +1.0

PIT at CIN
PIT +1.0
O 49.5

IND at NYJ
NYJ -2.5
U 47.5

BUF at HOU
BUF +10.5
U 40.5

CHI at MIA
CHI -7.5
U 41.0

CAR at WAS
WAS +1.0
U 44.5

[StarDust Bum]

LAR at DEN 04:05 PM
DEN +7.0
U 50.0

JAC at DAL 04:25 PM
DAL +3.0
U 39.0

BAL at TEN 04:25 PM
BAL -2.5
U 43.5

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Football

KC at NE 08:20 PM

NE -4.0............ D B A B I P T

U 59.5

I call this: Don't Bet Aganist Brady In Prime Time