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SNF - Dallas at Houston
October 5, 2018
NFL Week 5 SNF Betting Preview
Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans
It's been back-to-back weeks of 'under' plays cashing for me on SNF as the shootout that everyone was expecting between Baltimore and Pittsburgh a week ago lasted for a single quarter before those old style Ravens/Steelers slugfests broke out.
Admittedly, I was surprised to see Pittsburgh get blanked in the 2nd half for the second consecutive week, and when that happens two weeks in a row it starts to become a matter of coaching and how resistant the Steelers offensive coaching staff seems to be to adaptation. Whether or not that becomes a story going forward remains to be seen, but it's on to this week's matchup as we've got another AFC vs NFC battle like we had with the Patriots/Lions two weeks ago.
YouWager.eu Odds: Houston (-3); Total set at 45.5
This may be a AFC vs NFC game where bad blood doesn't really exist, but bragging rights are on the line in the state of Texas with this one as both teams look to gain ground in their respective division races. Both teams are coming off tight victories last week, and for Houston it was their first one of the year and it was slightly gifted to them. It's always interesting to see the spreads for games when both teams are coming off W's, but here it's basically the generic 3-point home field advantage for the Texans.
The line has basically held between a flat 3 and 3.5 all week (big difference I know) as this appears to be a SNF game that doesn't particularly have the appeal of the past few. That's easily understandable here as neither team has done much to instill much confidence in backing them in the betting market, but that doesn't mean we haven't seen improvement from both teams, at least on one side of the ball.
Dallas put up their season high in points last week with 26, as RB Ezekiel Elliott got a steady does of the football and his success on the ground started to open up more things for QB Dak Prescott in the passing game. That should be the gameplan early on for Dallas here, but when you consider that Indy's Andrew Luck threw for 464 yards and 4 TD's against this Texans secondary a week ago, chances are Dallas' success in this game will end up being on the right shoulder of Prescott. Luck torching this Texans secondary was not an isolated incident either as Eli Manning nearly had 300 yards passing against Houston the week prior, and that Giants offense has been disastrous the first month of the season.
On the flip side, Deshaun Watson is starting to look more and more comfortable on that reconstructed knee, as it was the third straight week he threw for 300+ yards. That vaunted Texans offense that so many bettors – and especially fantasy football players – fell in love with around this time last year is starting to show signs of reemerging soon. Considering this Texans defense has allowed 27 or more in three of their four games this year (and 20 to a Blaine Gabbert led attack), they need all the weapons they can get to just have a chance in these games.
That brings me to the total for this game and the number of 45.5 still seems a bit short. Houston's offense is starting to click again, and with the Cowboys allowing 24 points in their last two outings, we should see the Texans reach that number at a minimum here. The 413 yards per game Houston averages – including outgaining their opponents by an average of 31.5 yards per game – suggests that there won't be too many steps backwards for Watson and company in the foreseeable future, especially when Matthew Stafford threw for 300+ against this Cowboys secondary last week.
At the same time, the Dallas O-line – still a major strength on this team – shouldn't have too much concern containing a Houston pass rush that has largely been ineffective all year. That gives Prescott more time to look downfield to find the best matchups – because Houston will load the box plenty to try to stop Elliott on the ground – and with all the success past opponents have had through the air against Houston this year, Prescott should be no different.
So while the majority of bettors have spent the past two SNF games pounding the 'overs' in games that were perceived to be easy shootouts, I think this is the week – when there is plenty of hesitation in the air regarding both offenses/teams - that we finally get the high-scoring game to cap off a full Sunday of NFL action.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet: Over 45.5 points
October 5, 2018
NFL Week 5 SNF Betting Preview
Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans
It's been back-to-back weeks of 'under' plays cashing for me on SNF as the shootout that everyone was expecting between Baltimore and Pittsburgh a week ago lasted for a single quarter before those old style Ravens/Steelers slugfests broke out.
Admittedly, I was surprised to see Pittsburgh get blanked in the 2nd half for the second consecutive week, and when that happens two weeks in a row it starts to become a matter of coaching and how resistant the Steelers offensive coaching staff seems to be to adaptation. Whether or not that becomes a story going forward remains to be seen, but it's on to this week's matchup as we've got another AFC vs NFC battle like we had with the Patriots/Lions two weeks ago.
YouWager.eu Odds: Houston (-3); Total set at 45.5
This may be a AFC vs NFC game where bad blood doesn't really exist, but bragging rights are on the line in the state of Texas with this one as both teams look to gain ground in their respective division races. Both teams are coming off tight victories last week, and for Houston it was their first one of the year and it was slightly gifted to them. It's always interesting to see the spreads for games when both teams are coming off W's, but here it's basically the generic 3-point home field advantage for the Texans.
The line has basically held between a flat 3 and 3.5 all week (big difference I know) as this appears to be a SNF game that doesn't particularly have the appeal of the past few. That's easily understandable here as neither team has done much to instill much confidence in backing them in the betting market, but that doesn't mean we haven't seen improvement from both teams, at least on one side of the ball.
Dallas put up their season high in points last week with 26, as RB Ezekiel Elliott got a steady does of the football and his success on the ground started to open up more things for QB Dak Prescott in the passing game. That should be the gameplan early on for Dallas here, but when you consider that Indy's Andrew Luck threw for 464 yards and 4 TD's against this Texans secondary a week ago, chances are Dallas' success in this game will end up being on the right shoulder of Prescott. Luck torching this Texans secondary was not an isolated incident either as Eli Manning nearly had 300 yards passing against Houston the week prior, and that Giants offense has been disastrous the first month of the season.
On the flip side, Deshaun Watson is starting to look more and more comfortable on that reconstructed knee, as it was the third straight week he threw for 300+ yards. That vaunted Texans offense that so many bettors – and especially fantasy football players – fell in love with around this time last year is starting to show signs of reemerging soon. Considering this Texans defense has allowed 27 or more in three of their four games this year (and 20 to a Blaine Gabbert led attack), they need all the weapons they can get to just have a chance in these games.
That brings me to the total for this game and the number of 45.5 still seems a bit short. Houston's offense is starting to click again, and with the Cowboys allowing 24 points in their last two outings, we should see the Texans reach that number at a minimum here. The 413 yards per game Houston averages – including outgaining their opponents by an average of 31.5 yards per game – suggests that there won't be too many steps backwards for Watson and company in the foreseeable future, especially when Matthew Stafford threw for 300+ against this Cowboys secondary last week.
At the same time, the Dallas O-line – still a major strength on this team – shouldn't have too much concern containing a Houston pass rush that has largely been ineffective all year. That gives Prescott more time to look downfield to find the best matchups – because Houston will load the box plenty to try to stop Elliott on the ground – and with all the success past opponents have had through the air against Houston this year, Prescott should be no different.
So while the majority of bettors have spent the past two SNF games pounding the 'overs' in games that were perceived to be easy shootouts, I think this is the week – when there is plenty of hesitation in the air regarding both offenses/teams - that we finally get the high-scoring game to cap off a full Sunday of NFL action.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet: Over 45.5 points
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