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NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday. October 4

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New England's last 19 games
New England is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis



Sunday. October 7

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Jacksonville is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville


Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Buffalo's last 17 games at home
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee


Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Atlanta is 1-9-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Atlanta is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 11-4-1 SU in its last 16 games
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Pittsburgh is 9-1-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta


Denver Broncos
Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Denver is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Jets is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games at home
NY Jets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver


Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Green Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games at home
Detroit is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Detroit is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay


Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Baltimore is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Baltimore's last 15 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Baltimore is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Cleveland is 1-19-1 SU in its last 21 games
Cleveland is 6-18-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 1-8-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland's last 15 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 15 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cleveland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore


New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Carolina is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games at home
Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing NY Giants


Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
Miami is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami


Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 5-11-2 ATS in its last 18 games
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 11 games
Oakland is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 15 games
LA Chargers is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland


Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games
Arizona is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Arizona's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games on the road
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Arizona


Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 10 games
LA Rams is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 9 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Seattle
LA Rams is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Seattle is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams


Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games
Minnesota is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Minnesota is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Philadelphia is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota


Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games
Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Houston Texans
Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home



Monday. October 8

Washington Redskins
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Washington is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
New Orleans is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Washington
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 5
Joe Williams

We have passed the quarter-pole of the National Football League regular season and there are just two teams with unblemished records, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. We almost lost the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday night, but they rallied from 10 points down on the road against the Denver Broncos to not only win, but cover a 3.5-point number, too. The Chiefs are also the only team in the NFL with a perfect 4-0 ATS record through four games.

Week 5 features sees two more teams on byes, as the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on the shelf. The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins are also back from their Week 4 rest.

Thursday, Oct. 4

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10, 51.5)

QB Andrew Luck missed the entire 2017 season due to his shoulder injury, but he finally looks like he is back to his pre-injury form. He dropped a career-high 464 yards on the Texans in an overtime loss at home, but he also lost WR T.Y. Hilton to a hamstring injury. Head coach Frank Reich said it doesn't look good that Hilton will be ready for the quick turnaround in Foxboro. It's a bit concerning since the Colts have struggled in the run game, now will be missing their biggest receiving weapon for Luck.

The Pats dropped the Dolphins from the ranks of the unbeaten with an emphatic win on Sunday. Most shops have the Pats favored by 10 for this one, but Treasure Island had New England listed at -9.5. The Patriots have covered each of their two home games and the 'under' is 2-0 at Gillette Stadium this season.


Sunday, Oct. 7

Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Ravens have won and covered five consecutive meetings in this series, and the 'under' has cashed in three in a row. Cleveland hasn't had a lot of success against most teams, but they have especially struggled against Baltimore. The last win on home turf against the Ravens came on Nov. 3, 2013. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings on the shores of Lake Erie. The Westgate Superbook opened the Ravens are -1.5 and they're already up to -3 in less than 24 hours, likely aided by Baltimore's impressive showing on Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 51.5)

Perhaps the two best teams in the AFC square off in Kansas City when the Jaguars meet the Chiefs at Arrowhead. It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville's lockdown defense handles QB Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Kansas City offense. Offshore book BetOnline.ag opened this one at 52.5, and it was quickly down to 51.5. There is a large dispartity in the total line, however, as Westgate had the number at 47.5 on Monday afternoon, up to 48.5 by kickoff on Monday.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39) at Buffalo Bills

The Titans picked up a big win against the defending Super Bowl champs last week, following up a nice road win against the Jags. The Bills, on the other hand, were blanked in Green Bay after their shocking win in Minnesota the previous week. Most shops have the Titans installed as 3.5-point favorites, although you can find a bargain at the Golden Nugget and Westgate at -3.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7, 44.5)

The Panthers are coming off a bye, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five coming back from their off week. If you're not feeling the flat seven, you can still catch the Cats -6.5 at Treasure Island as well as Southpoint.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5)

The Falcons allowed 79 points over their past two games at home, both losses, including one against the AFC North rivals of the Steelers. The Steelers have also been pretty shabby on defense, so it's no surprise this game features the highest total on the board. Atlanta has allowed 30.5 points per game (PPG), while Pittsburgh has yielded 29.0 PPG to date.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 50.5) at Detroit Lions

The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this NFC North rivalry, including each of the past three battles at Ford Field. Green Bay was swept in this series last season, but they also spent a majority of 2017 without QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite last season's sweep, the books have the Pack listed as slight favorites. If you like Green, TI has them listed at just -1.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 50.5)

The Dolphins were dumped by the Patriots in Foxboro by a 38-7 score, splashing cold water on their 3-0 SU/ATS start. Now, they'll meet a Cincinnati club which has posted 34 or more points in three of their four outings, with the 'over' hitting in all four contests. You can still catch this one at a flat 50 points at the Golden Nugget as well as Southpoint.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 53.5)

The Raiders will battle the Chargers in Carson. In the past six home games, the Bolts are 4-2 SU, while going 9-4 SU in their past 13 home contests against the Silver and Black. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine games at home against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 10-2-1 in the past 13 home games against the Raiders, so perhaps the line is rather high. The Strat has the line at 54.0 as of Tuesday early morning.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 41)

The Cards were shuffled to 0-4 SU by the Seahawks, losing a heartbreaker at home. Arizona enters as the only winless team in the league at the quarter-pole, although there is optimism with QB Josh Rosen. The 49ers are down to backup QB C.J. Beathard, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo is done for the season due to a knee injury. Beathard wasn't a total disaster, though, and San Francisco covered in his first start last week against the Chargers.

The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four home games for the Niners against the Cards, and the total has gone under in six of the previous eight in this series. This is the second-lowest total on the board, with all major Vegas books consistent at 41 points.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)

It's a rematch of the NFC Championship Game played Jan. 21, and the Vikings hope it goes a little better. The Vikings were destroyed 38-7 by QB Nick Foles and company. He will be holding a clipboard in this one, while Minnesota's starter in that game, QB Case Keenum, is now playing his trade in Denver. Most books have held steady at -3, while Southpoint has Philly laying -3.5.

Los Angeles Rams (-7, 50.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The Rams won and pushed at a majority of shops last Thursday against Minnesota, and they have had a few extra days to prepare for Seattle. The Seahawks had major drama with safety Earl Thomas breaking his leg and then showing off his displeasure while leaving the field, saluting the Seattle sideline.

Seattle has been one of the best teams against the number against divisional foes, hitting at a 56.7 percent clip at 17-13-2 ATS since 2013. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 27th in the NFL in divisional ATS, going 13-18, or 41.9 percent.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3.5, 45)

The Lonestar State battle takes place on Sunday night at NRG Stadium, and the Texans are flying high after Frank Reich gifted them a win in Indy, their first of the season in four tries.

This one will be interesting, as it's another one of those solid defense vs. high-flying offense matchups. Dallas rans No. 5 in the NFL by allowing just 306.2 total yards per game, while Houston has posted 24.0 PPG through four contests. A majority of the books have the home team listed at three and a hook, but you can find a flat three at Caesars/Harrah's, as well as Treasure Island.


Monday, Oct. 8

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52.5)

The Redskins are back from their bye, and rest hasn't done them very much good. They're just 2-8 ATS over their past 10 games following a week off.

Meanwhile, the Saints have scored 76 points over the past two games and they're averaging 34.3 PPG through four outings. However, New Orleans is 0-2 ATS in two home games, which is likely why they're favored by less than a touchdown after laying 10 in each of their first two games in the Crescent City. You can still catch the Saints at -6 at Treasure Island, while you can grab the 'Skins at +7 at Golden Nugget if you're feeling the road team instead.

[StarDust Bum]

GRONK LISTED AS DNP

Tight end Rob Gronkowski was listed as “did not practice” on New England’s injury report on Monday ahead of its Thursday night matchup where it hosts Indianapolis. Gronk pulled himself from Sunday’s game against Miami with an ankle injury and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to recover on a short week. Gronk’s absence would obviously be a blow to the Patriots offense but one-way Brady and co. will help deal with the possible loss is with the return of Julian Edelman.

Brady, for one, is very excited, saying this about Edelman on Monday: “He gets open so quick, I think that's the thing about Julian, his explosiveness in the routes, in and out of breaks. It's very comforting for a quarterback to see a guy get open really early in a route.”

The Pats looked great offensively in Week 4, but Brady still hasn’t found a receiver he can consistently trust. That will change on Thursday. Expect Brady to look Edelman’s way early and often in a game with a total set at 51.5 and jump on the Over for Edelman’s receptions total when the market opens later in the week.


HILTON DOUBTFUL

In sticking with the Thursday nighter, Indianapolis will likely be without receiver T.Y. Hilton after he was forced from Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Add in injuries to top tight end Jack Doyle and top running back Marlon Mack and the Colts are going to be severely shorthanded on offense as they head to Foxborough.

The Colts were fine on Sunday without their top playmakers but that was at home and against a very bad Houston pass defense that ranks 27th in the league, giving up 288 yards per game through the air. New England’s pass defense ranks eighth (226.2 yards per game) and has been especially good at home, giving up 158 yards in Week 1 and 116 yards on Sunday. We’re not optimistic about Indy’s chances on Thursday and we’re taking the Under on its team total.


FOURNETTE OUT MULTIPLE GAMES

The injury fallout from Sunday continues as it’s being reported that Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette will miss multiple games, including a mouth-watering matchup with Kansas City on Sunday. T.J. Yeldon will start in Fournette’s place and Corey Grant will change the pace so we’re staying away from the committee backfield and looking to receiver Keelan Cole for a prop.

We’ve done well with Cole so far this season, correctly calling his Over 3.5 receptions in Week 3 and then his Under 58.5 receiving yards in Week 4. It seems Cole is the kind of player who is being scripted in and out of weekly game plans. This week, coach Doug Marrone should be looking towards Cole as he game plans without Fournette and against a Chiefs team that ranks dead last in passing defense. We’ll be leaning towards the Over on Cole’s reception total.


CHARGERS LOSE WHITE

L.A. Chargers’ linebacker Kyzir White had a knee scope on Monday and is considered week to week. White might not be a household name, but the rookie was playing on 73 percent of defensive snaps and has been solid in pass coverage. The Chargers’ loss is Jared Cook’s gain. The Raiders’ tight end is on fire and is coming off an 8-110-2 performance against the Browns on Sunday. Cook is Derek Carr’s most trusted target and that was clear when the Raiders lined him up as a wideout on third-and-3 late in overtime and threw him a jump ball — which he came down with. The Chargers-Raiders game on Sunday looks to be a shootout with a total set at 53.5 and bettors can expect a lot of balls thrown in Cook’s direction. We’re taking the Over on his reception total.


COOK STILL NOT HEALTHY

Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook admitted on Monday that his hamstring still isn’t 100 percent and that fans need to be patient with the Vikings’ run game. This is not what Vikings backers want to hear from their star running back who is coming off a 10-rush, 20-yard performance against the Rams on Thursday night.

Cook will likely play on Sunday, but we are going to be fading whatever his rushing yards total is as he’s in the worst possible spot for a running back with a trip to Philadelphia. The Eagles have been the best against the run so far this season, giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game. They gave up just 24 yards on 12 combined carries to Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis on Sunday and 37 yards on 11 combined carries to Jordan Wilkens and Nyheim Hines in Week 3. No one has been able to run on the Eagles yet this season and that’s not likely to change with a hobbled Cook. Take the Under on his rushing total with confidence.

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots back in betting form as double-digit faves in NFL Week 5 odds
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady had plenty to pump his fist about Sunday, when New England hammered Miami 38-7. That led to the Patriots opening as 10.5-point Week 5 home favorites against the Colts.

Week 5 of the NFL season puts the Thursday night prime-time spotlight on the defending AFC champion. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10.5)

New England dropped two in a row and didn’t look good in doing so, at Jacksonville and at Detroit. But the Patriots (2-2 SU and ATS) looked like their old elite selves in Week 4, hammering previously unbeaten Miami 38-7 as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Indianapolis has quarterback Andrew Luck back this season, but his presence isn’t showing up much in the win column through the first month. The Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) staged a big comeback to force overtime against Houston on Sunday, but ultimately lost 37-34 as a 1-point home underdog.

“We opened this one Patriots -10.5, which is up 3 points from our lookahead number (last week) of Patriots -7.5,” Murray said. “New England looked like the defending AFC champion, and the Colts are coming off an overtime loss and have to go on the road in a short week. Tough spot for Indianapolis here.”

That said, the line ticked down a half-point to 10 on Sunday night.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Atlanta could certainly be 3-1 at this point, and arguably even 4-0, but the football gods definitely haven’t been on the Falcons’ side the past two weeks. After falling at home in overtime to New Orleans in Week 3, Atlanta (1-3 SU and ATS) gave up a final-seconds score to Cincinnati in a 37-36 Week 4 home loss as a 3.5-point fave.

Pittsburgh has plenty of discord this season, coupled with a lack of Le’Veon Bell, the stud running back who continues to hold out. The struggle continued in the Week 4 Sunday nighter, with the Steelers (1-2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) losing to Baltimore 26-14 as a 3-point home chalk.

“We opened it Steelers -4 and closed it when the Sunday night game kicked off,” Murray said. “Really tough loss for Atlanta. The Falcons’ secondary looked awful, and they’re in for an even tougher test next week at Heinz Field against Big Ben, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There will be a lot of scoring in this one.”


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Jacksonville looked like the new “It” team when it rolled past visiting New England in Week 2, only to muddle through a 9-6 home loss to Tennessee the following week. However, the Jaguars (3-1 SU and ATS) got back on track in Week 4, drilling the New York Jets 31-12 laying 7.5 points at home.

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has been a huge eye-opener early this season, throwing 13 TD passes with zero interceptions through three weeks. The Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) averaged 39.3 points per game in those three wins, but they still have work left to do in Week 4, traveling to face Denver in the Monday nighter.

“We opened Chiefs -3 (-110), took some money on Kansas City and moved it to -3 (-120),” Murray said. “This line could change, depending on how the Chiefs look in Denver.”


Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

It’s a rematch of last season’s NFC final, though neither team is in quite that form. Philadelphia, which lost only three games all of last year en route to winning the Super Bowl, already has two losses on its 2018-19 record. In Week 4, the Eagles (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled at Tennessee 26-23 in overtime giving 3 points.

Minnesota got a nice Week 1 win over a then-Jimmy Garoppolo-led San Francisco squad, but is winless since then. The Vikings (1-2-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) couldn’t quite keep pace with the high-octane Los Angeles Rams last Thursday, losing 38-31 as a 7.5-point road pup.

“We opened Eagles -3 in the NFC Championship Game rematch,” Murray said. “Philly is coming off a really disappointing loss to the Titans, and the Vikings need a win as well to avoid a 1-3-1 start. Minnesota with three extra days to prepare here, in a big game for both teams.”

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s six-pack

Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

— Arizona is 2-8 in its last ten games as road underdogs.

— Denver is 2-13-1 vs spread in its last 16 games.

— Detroit covered six of its last eight games.

— Cleveland is 4-12 in its last 16 games as home underdogs.

— Ravens are 13-4 vs spread in their last 17 divisional games.

— Green Bay is 10-5 in its last 15 games as divisional road favorites.

Quote of the Day
“I don’t like having to worry about that. Now Week 4 every year is going to be the trade deadline, and everyone is going to make decisions. I don’t like that part of it. When you commit to a school, when you commit to a team, that’s your team, right?

It’s what’s best for him (Bryant). It’s kind of like, when you have a brother, and he makes a bad decision, you love him. Not that it was necessarily a bad decision, but just one you wouldn’t make yourself. But I’m not him, and I’m not here every day in his shoes.”
Clemson WR Hunter Renfrow, on QB Kelly Bryant transferring

Wednesday’s quiz
Who was Lebron James’ first coach in the NBA?
(Hint: He was also a very good player, playing for five teams)

Tuesday’s quiz
Colts’ kicker Adam Viniatieri played for NFL Europe’s Amsterdam Admirals, in 1996.

Monday’s quiz
Tom Brady tied an NFL record Sunday, throwing a TD pass to his 70th receiver; he shares this record with Vinny Testaverde.


******************************


Wednesday’s List of 13: In praise of these A’s……..

13) Last three years, Oakland A’s finished last in AL West, winning 68-69-75 games.

A’s have the lowest payroll in the major leagues, but they made the playoffs this season, going 97-65, something no one thought possible back in the spring. Great managing job by Bob Melvin; this is 4th time in last seven years Oakland is in the playoffs, but first time since 2014.

How they’ve gotten to this point is really pretty amazing.

12) Oakland has used 53 players this season, 33 of them pitchers.

Their two best starting pitchers right now are Mike Fiers and Edwin Jackson; Fiers’ first game with the A’s was August 8, Jackson’s first game was June 25. Jackson is pitching for his 13th major league team.

11) Kendall Graveman was Oakland’s Opening Day starter; he lasted until May 11 before he blew his arm out.

Sean Manaea pitched a no-hitter against Boston, but he got hurt August 24 and is done until 2020. A’s went 16-11 in Manaea’s starts this year- they acquired him in the Ben Zobrist trade when Kansas City made their World Series run in 2015.

Gossett, Triggs, Montas, Blackburn started a combined 31 games; A’s went 17-14 in those games.

10) February 12, 2016, the A’s traded two minor leaguers to Milwaukee for Khris Davis, who has gone on to hit 133 homers, knock in 335 runs. Pretty good trade.

One of the minor leaguers, Jacob Nottingham, has appeared in nine major league games. Davis is mostly a DH, so he wouldn’t have done Milwaukee much good, but a damn good trade.

9) On March 12, 2018, Oakland signed C Jonathan Lucroy, giving their pitchers/defenses an anchor, the team a leader. Lucroy hasn’t hit much, but this will be his third straight year in the playoffs (Texas 2016, Colorado 2017). His acquisition was huge for the A’s.

8) Ramon Laureano is a 24-year old OF who hit .227 in the AA Texas League LY; when you hit .227 in the hitter-friendly Texas League, it is usually time to start looking for a new career, but since making his Oakland debut August 3, Laureano has an on-base% of .364, is a terrific CF with a great arm- he doubled a runner off first base in Anaheim with a throw that went 107 yards in the air!!!!

A’s got him from Houston in a trade for a pitcher who went 5-8 in A ball this year.

7) When they make Moneyball 2, the story of Stephen Piscotty’s family will be front/center. St Louis was going to trade Piscotty last winter, but his mother had Alzheimer’s and he wanted to be close to her in her final months, so Piscotty asked to be traded to the A’s or Giants.

Last December, he got traded to Oakland and has hit 27 homers with 88 RBI, many of them in key spots. Quite a story.

6) Last July, the A’s were awful and Washington needed bullpen help to make the playoffs, so Oakland dealt Doolittle/Madson to Washington for Blake Treinen and two minor leaguers (one of whom is Jesus Luzardo, a big prospect).

Treinen has turned into one of the best closers this season, with 38 saves. Luzardo is expected to be a star down the road.

5) 41-year old Fernando Rodney (acquired August 9) and Jeurys Familia (July 21) pitch the 7th and 8th innings if the A’s are winning. When your starting pitchers are mostly all hurt and have a hard time finishing six innings, you load up on relievers and hope the starting pitcher gets 15 outs. Lou Trivino pitched the 6th inning most of the season, when needed.

4) Oakland’s infielders are very good; a pair of Matts, Chapman/Olson are young corner infielders who appear headed for stardom. Chapman and Nolan Arenado and the two best defensive 3B in the major leagues right now.

Marcus Semien/Jed Lowrie give the A’s solid defense up the middle and timely hitting- Lowrie knocked in 99 runs. It is so unusual for a playoff team to have starting pitching being the weakest part of the team.

3) On June 5, the A’s lost 6-4 to the Angels, dropping them to 34-36; since then, Oakland is 63-29, the best record in MLB during that time. An astounding turnaround.

2) Bob Melvin managed the Mariners for two years, Arizona for five; this is his 8th year with Oakland, his hometown team. Can’t imagine why he got fired from the other places; he is calm, smart and guys play their butts off for him, otherwise a 34-36 team wouldn’t go on a 62-27 run. Excellent manager.

1) This is the 50th anniversary of the A’s first season in Oakland, after they moved west from Kansas City. It has been a great season for these guys; hopefully it’ll last another month or so

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday. October 4

Indianapolis @ New England

Game 301-302
October 4, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
127.961
New England
135.625
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+10 1/2); Under


Sunday, October 7

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Game 951-952
October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
132.675
Cleveland
131.283
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3); Under

Jacksonville @ Kansas City

Game 953-954
October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
131.572
Kansas City
141.707
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 10
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3); Under

Tennessee @ Buffalo

Game 955-956
October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.775
Buffalo
125.405
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 8 1/2
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-3 1/2); Under

NY Giants @ Carolina

Game 457-458
October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
129.995
Carolina
131.217
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+7); Over

Denver @ NY Jets

Game 959-960
October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
128.356
NY Jets
126.726
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 1
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+1); Under

Atlanta @ Pittsburgh

Game 961-962
October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
129.407
Pittsburgh
138.270
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 9
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3); Under

Green Bay @ Detroit

Game 463-464
October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
132.604
Detroit
129.085
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 1
51
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-1); Under

Miami @ Cincinnati

Game 465-466
October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.429
Cincinnati
128.872
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 6 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+6 1/2); Under

Oakland @ LA Chargers

Game 467-468
October 7, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
130.152
LA Chargers
127.081
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 3
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 6
53
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+6); Over

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 469-470
October 7, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
124.019
San Francisco
131.693
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 7 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 4 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-4 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Philadelphia

Game 471-472
October 7, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
127.726
Philadelphia
137.161
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 9 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3); Under

LA Rams @ Seattle

Game 473-474
October 7, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
140.611
Seattle
130.900
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 9 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
51
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-7); Under

Dallas @ Houston

Game 475-476
October 7, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
124.475
Houston
129.822
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3); Under


Monday, October 8

Washington @ New Orleans

Game 477-478
October 8, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
131.666
New Orleans
135.996
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 6 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+6 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5


Thursday
Colts (1-3) @ Patriots (2-2)— McDaniels surprisingly turned down Colts’ HC job last February, to stay as Patriots’ OC. Patriots won/covered both 2018 home games, winning 27-20/38-7; they were held under 6.0 yards/pass attempt in both their losses (6.5/7.8 in W’s). Indy lost its last two games by total of seven points; they’re 2-0 as road dogs this year; since ’15, they’re 12-9-1 as road dogs. Since ’13, New England is 24-11-3 as home faves; they get #1 WR Edelman back, which helps Brady a lot. Patriots won last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 21+. Colts lost last five visits here, by 3-7-35-21-38 points; their last series win was in ‘09. Average total in last eight series games, 62.3. AFC South teams are 5-4 vs spread outside division.

Sunday
Ravens (3-1) @ Browns (1-2-1)— Cleveland is no longer a doormat; all four of their games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Browns have 13 takeaways, are +6 in turnovers, only seven teams have more TD’s than they do (12)- they’ve had 19 plays of 20+ yards. Cleveland is 5-14-1 in last 20 games as home underdogs, 1-0 this year. Last six times Ravens beat Pittsburgh, they went 4-2 vs spread the next week. Baltimore scored 23+ points in all four games; they were -3 in turnovers in their only loss. Ravens split their two road games this year; since ’13, Ravens are 5-10-1 as road favorites. Baltimore is 18-2 in last 20 series games, winning last three by 14+ points; they won last four visits here, by 2-6-5-17 points.

Jaguars (3-1) @ Chiefs (4-0)— Mahomes is hottest QB in NFL with 14 TD’s, no INTs and 4-0 record, with three road wins; short week for Chiefs after dramatic win in Denver Monday night. KC covered eight of last ten games as home favorite; they won only home game this 38-27 (-6) over the 49ers. Jacksonville has allowed only nine plays of 20+ yards this year, 2nd-lowest total in NFL (Wash, 6); over last 2+ years, Jaguars are 7-4 as road underdogs. Jax played last three games at home; they won only road game 20-15 (-3) at Giants in Week 1. Chiefs won last three series games, by 22-26-5 points; their last loss to Jaguars was in ’09. Jags lost last two visits here, by 22-5 points; their last win here was in ’07.

Titans (3-1) @ Bills (1-3)— Buffalo had 22-yard edge in field position in its only win; they were -4 in turnovers in their three losses, with two TD’s on 35 drives. Tennessee won its last three games, all by three points; underdogs won all four of their games SU. Since ’14, Titans are 2-6-1 as road favorites; they’ve had 3 points at halftime in three of their four games. Tennessee foes are just 17-51 on 3rd down. Buffalo lost its only home game 31-20 to Chargers; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as home underdogs. Since ’12, Bills are 29-20-2 vs spread coming off a loss. Tennessee won five of last six series games; six of last eight were decided by 3 or fewer points, or in OT. Titans won last three visits here, by 1-1-6 points.

Giants (1-3) @ Panthers (2-1)— Giants’ OC Mike Shula had same job with Carolina last five years, so he knows Cam Newton well, but he needs to get his star WR Beckham going- in 1-3 start, OBIII has 31 catches for 331 yards, but no TD’s. Panthers won/covered their last three post-bye games; they’re 2-0 at home this year, winning by 8-10 points- since ’13, they’re 17-12-2 as home favorites. Since 2011, Giants are 21-18-2 as road underdogs- they split two road games in Texas this year. Under is 3-1 in Giant games this season. Winning side scored 31+ points in last six series games; Carolina is 6-4 in series- Giants are 2-2 here, with last visit in ’13. Carolina won/covered its last three post-bye games.

Broncos (2-2) @ Jets (1-3)— Long travel, short week for Broncos after late-night loss to Chiefs Monday; Denver is 7-10-2 in last 19 games where spread was 3 or less points- they lost only road game this year, 27-14 at Baltimore. Jets were 6-1-1 as home underdogs LY but lost only home game this year 20-12 to Miami; Gang Green’s offense is worst in NFL in red zone (3.64 pts/drive), last in NFL in drives that start 75+ yards from end zone (0.57 ppp)- playing rookie QB comes with growing pains. Jets are 12 for last 38 on 3rd down, have 11 3/outs on last 22 drives. Denver won last three series games, by 4-14-23 points; they’re 4-2 in last six trips here, with last visit in ’14. Last three Bronco games stayed under the total.

Falcons (1-3) @ Steelers (1-2-1)— Two underachieving teams with struggling defenses; Atlanta is first NFL team since ’66 to score 35+ points in consecutive games and lose both games. Falcons are 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as road underdogs, but since ’15, they’re 7-12 vs spread coming off a loss. Pitt allowed 31.7 ppg in its last three games; they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five home games, 3-8 in last 11 games as home favorites- they were shut out in second half of last two games, and won’t get RB Bell back until after their bye. Steelers are 13-2-1 in series, 6-0-1 here, but Falcons’ last two visits here both went OT (34-all tie, 15-9 Pitt win). Atlanta failed to cover its last four games on natural grass.

Packers (2-1-1) @ Lions (1-3)— How will playing on artificial turf affect Rodgers’ bum knee? Green Bay has only five offensive TD’s, 10 FGA’s in last three games; they lost only road game 31-17 at Washington, are 9-17 vs spread in last 26 games on fake grass. Lions are 1-3, with last two losses by total of five points; they’ve got only one takeaway in last three games. Detroit is 4-11-1 in last 16 games as home underdogs (1-0 in ’18). Stafford is good QB, but Lions have only 26 points on last six trips to red zone, which helps explain the close losses. Detroit is 5-4 in last nine series games, sweeping Pack 30-17/35-11 LY. Packers split last eight games in Motor City. Three of four Detroit games went over total.

Dolphins (3-1) @ Bengals (3-1)— What effect did LW’s 38-7 loss in Foxboro have on Dolphins’ psyche? Miami won its first three games, scoring 25 ppg; since ’14, they’re 10-17 as road dogs- in last two games, Fish ran ball total of 32 times for only 97 yards. AFC East underdogs are 2-5 vs spread outside the division. How much does Cincy TE Eifert’s injury slow down Bengals’ high-powered attack? Bengals scored 34-34-37 points in their three wins; they scored 21 in their loss, even with four TO’s. Cincy defense allowed 377+ yards in all four games, all of which went over the total. Miami is 12-3 in last 15 series games, 3-3 in last six; Dolphins split their last four visits here. Dalton led GW TD drive in Atlanta LW, hitting Green for winning score with :07 left.

Raiders (1-3) @ Chargers (2-2)— Will probably be more Raider fans than Charger fans in Carson. Bolts are 3-6 vs spread in their temporary home; why can’t they find a decent kicker (missed two PATs and FG LW)? Chargers’ offense has 25 plays of 20+ yards, most in NFL, Raider defense allowed 24 plays of 20+, T1st in league, so Rivers could have big day. Gruden got first win LY, 45-42 over rookie QB making his first career road start. Raiders allowed 20+ 2nd half points in all four games. Teams split last ten series games, with four of last five decided by 3 or fewer points; Oakland is 2-4 in last six series road games. Bolts swept Oakland 17-16/30-10 LY. All four Charger games went over total.

Cardinals (0-4) @ 49ers (1-3)— First NFL road start for Rosen, who was 15-27/180 passing in his first start LW, a 20-17 loss to Seattle. Redbirds are 0-4; their last two losses were by total of five points. Under Arians, Arizona was 11-4 vs spread in NFC West road games, but they’re 2-8 vs spread in last ten games as road dogs. 49ers scored 30-27-27 in last three games; Beathard was OK in his 6th (1-5) NFL start. Niners beat Detroit 30-27 in their only home game. Arizona won last six series games, winning last three visits here, by 6-12-10 points. NFL-wide, home favorites in divisional games are 3-10 vs spread this season. On 27 drives starting 75+ yards from goal line, Arizona has scored 20 points (0.74 ppp), 2nd-worst mark in NFL.

Vikings (1-2-1) @ Eagles (2-2)— Philly spanked Vikings 38-7 in NFC title game last January; home side won last three series games. Vikings lost eight of last nine visits to Philly, losing 21-10/38-7 in last two trips here- their last win in Philly was in ’10. Minnesota’s OL has already allowed 81 pressures; next-highest in NFL is 55 (Texans); Vikings’ OL coach passed away during summer, and they’ve got injury issues there. Minnesota allowed 29-27-38 points in last three games; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as road underdogs. Eagles struggled in red zone (36 points on 8 drives) in Wentz’ two starts; they’re 2-0 at home, winning by 6-4 points. All six Philly games this season have been decided by six or fewer points.

Rams (4-0) @ Seahawks (2-2)— First road game since Week 1 for LA, which under McVay is 4-2 as road favorites. Rams scored 33+ points in all four games; they’ve scored 15 TD’s on 37 drives, with only three 3/outs. Only six of their 55 plays LW were on 3rd down. Seattle allowed 17-13 points in winning its last two games (+4 in TO’s), but now Thomas (leg) is out for year. Seahawks are 14-51 on 3rd down; their last three games stayed under. Since ’11, Seattle is 7-2 as home underdogs; they’ve gone 3/out 21 times on 49 drives this year, 3rd-most in league. LA won four of last six series games, winning two of last three visits here; Rams had three extra days to prepare, after beating Vikings last Thursday.

Cowboys (2-2) @ Texans (1-3)— Houston got its first win LW in Indy in OT, when Colts went for it on 4th-and-4 on their own 43 in tie game with 0:27 left; Texans lost only home game 27-22 to Giants, they’re 2-4 in last six games as home favorites. Houston’s last two opponents converted 17 of 30 third down plays. Cowboys are 2-0 at home, 0-2 on road, losing 16-8 at Carolina, 24-13 in Seattle; they’ve scored three TD’s on 22 drives on road, scoring 18 points on four drives in red zone. Since ’15, Dallas is 5-8 as road underdogs, 0-2 this year. Cowboys kicked six TD’s, tried nine FG’s; they’ve run ball for 166-153 yards in last two games, but converted only 13-46 on third down- they miss Witten/Bryant. Dallas won last three series games; they split two visits here.

Monday
Redskins (2-1) @ Saints (3-1)— RB Ingram is back from suspension for the Saints; expect more running from NO’s offense. Saints scored 43-33 points in winning last two games, with 15 plays of 20+ yards. Since ’14, NO is 9-18-1 as home favorites. Redskins allowed only 14.7 ppg in its 2-1 start, holding all three opponents under 5.6 yards/pass attempt; they’re 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as road underdogs. Washington is 4-2 in last six series games, but lost 29-24/47-14 in last two visits to Bourbon Street. Average total in last five series games: 72.2. Under Gruden, Redskins are 1-2-1 SU in pre-bye games, 1-3 vs spread. NFC East teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division; NFC South teams are 4-4.

2018 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-6-1 2-2 8-8 2-2
2) 4-6 5-1 8-8 1-1
3) 7-5 3-1 8-8 5-3N
4) 1-0 x 1-0 x
T) 17-17-1 10-4 25-24 8-6

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 5
Joe Williams

We have passed the quarter-pole of the National Football League regular season and there are just two teams with unblemished records, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. We almost lost the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday night, but they rallied from 10 points down on the road against the Denver Broncos to not only win, but cover a 3.5-point number, too. The Chiefs are also the only team in the NFL with a perfect 4-0 ATS record through four games.

Week 5 features sees two more teams on byes, as the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on the shelf. The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins are also back from their Week 4 rest.

Thursday, Oct. 4

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10, 51.5)

QB Andrew Luck missed the entire 2017 season due to his shoulder injury, but he finally looks like he is back to his pre-injury form. He dropped a career-high 464 yards on the Texans in an overtime loss at home, but he also lost WR T.Y. Hilton to a hamstring injury. Head coach Frank Reich said it doesn't look good that Hilton will be ready for the quick turnaround in Foxboro. It's a bit concerning since the Colts have struggled in the run game, now will be missing their biggest receiving weapon for Luck.

The Pats dropped the Dolphins from the ranks of the unbeaten with an emphatic win on Sunday. Most shops have the Pats favored by 10 for this one, but Treasure Island had New England listed at -9.5. The Patriots have covered each of their two home games and the 'under' is 2-0 at Gillette Stadium this season.


Sunday, Oct. 7

Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Ravens have won and covered five consecutive meetings in this series, and the 'under' has cashed in three in a row. Cleveland hasn't had a lot of success against most teams, but they have especially struggled against Baltimore. The last win on home turf against the Ravens came on Nov. 3, 2013. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings on the shores of Lake Erie. The Westgate Superbook opened the Ravens are -1.5 and they're already up to -3 in less than 24 hours, likely aided by Baltimore's impressive showing on Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 51.5)

Perhaps the two best teams in the AFC square off in Kansas City when the Jaguars meet the Chiefs at Arrowhead. It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville's lockdown defense handles QB Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Kansas City offense. Offshore book BetOnline.ag opened this one at 52.5, and it was quickly down to 51.5. There is a large dispartity in the total line, however, as Westgate had the number at 47.5 on Monday afternoon, up to 48.5 by kickoff on Monday.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39) at Buffalo Bills

The Titans picked up a big win against the defending Super Bowl champs last week, following up a nice road win against the Jags. The Bills, on the other hand, were blanked in Green Bay after their shocking win in Minnesota the previous week. Most shops have the Titans installed as 3.5-point favorites, although you can find a bargain at the Golden Nugget and Westgate at -3.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7, 44.5)

The Panthers are coming off a bye, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five coming back from their off week. If you're not feeling the flat seven, you can still catch the Cats -6.5 at Treasure Island as well as Southpoint.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5)

The Falcons allowed 79 points over their past two games at home, both losses, including one against the AFC North rivals of the Steelers. The Steelers have also been pretty shabby on defense, so it's no surprise this game features the highest total on the board. Atlanta has allowed 30.5 points per game (PPG), while Pittsburgh has yielded 29.0 PPG to date.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 50.5) at Detroit Lions

The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this NFC North rivalry, including each of the past three battles at Ford Field. Green Bay was swept in this series last season, but they also spent a majority of 2017 without QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite last season's sweep, the books have the Pack listed as slight favorites. If you like Green, TI has them listed at just -1.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 50.5)

The Dolphins were dumped by the Patriots in Foxboro by a 38-7 score, splashing cold water on their 3-0 SU/ATS start. Now, they'll meet a Cincinnati club which has posted 34 or more points in three of their four outings, with the 'over' hitting in all four contests. You can still catch this one at a flat 50 points at the Golden Nugget as well as Southpoint.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 53.5)

The Raiders will battle the Chargers in Carson. In the past six home games, the Bolts are 4-2 SU, while going 9-4 SU in their past 13 home contests against the Silver and Black. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine games at home against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 10-2-1 in the past 13 home games against the Raiders, so perhaps the line is rather high. The Strat has the line at 54.0 as of Tuesday early morning.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 41)

The Cards were shuffled to 0-4 SU by the Seahawks, losing a heartbreaker at home. Arizona enters as the only winless team in the league at the quarter-pole, although there is optimism with QB Josh Rosen. The 49ers are down to backup QB C.J. Beathard, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo is done for the season due to a knee injury. Beathard wasn't a total disaster, though, and San Francisco covered in his first start last week against the Chargers.

The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four home games for the Niners against the Cards, and the total has gone under in six of the previous eight in this series. This is the second-lowest total on the board, with all major Vegas books consistent at 41 points.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)

It's a rematch of the NFC Championship Game played Jan. 21, and the Vikings hope it goes a little better. The Vikings were destroyed 38-7 by QB Nick Foles and company. He will be holding a clipboard in this one, while Minnesota's starter in that game, QB Case Keenum, is now playing his trade in Denver. Most books have held steady at -3, while Southpoint has Philly laying -3.5.

Los Angeles Rams (-7, 50.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The Rams won and pushed at a majority of shops last Thursday against Minnesota, and they have had a few extra days to prepare for Seattle. The Seahawks had major drama with safety Earl Thomas breaking his leg and then showing off his displeasure while leaving the field, saluting the Seattle sideline.

Seattle has been one of the best teams against the number against divisional foes, hitting at a 56.7 percent clip at 17-13-2 ATS since 2013. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 27th in the NFL in divisional ATS, going 13-18, or 41.9 percent.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3.5, 45)

The Lonestar State battle takes place on Sunday night at NRG Stadium, and the Texans are flying high after Frank Reich gifted them a win in Indy, their first of the season in four tries.

This one will be interesting, as it's another one of those solid defense vs. high-flying offense matchups. Dallas rans No. 5 in the NFL by allowing just 306.2 total yards per game, while Houston has posted 24.0 PPG through four contests. A majority of the books have the home team listed at three and a hook, but you can find a flat three at Caesars/Harrah's, as well as Treasure Island.


Monday, Oct. 8

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52.5)

The Redskins are back from their bye, and rest hasn't done them very much good. They're just 2-8 ATS over their past 10 games following a week off.

Meanwhile, the Saints have scored 76 points over the past two games and they're averaging 34.3 PPG through four outings. However, New Orleans is 0-2 ATS in two home games, which is likely why they're favored by less than a touchdown after laying 10 in each of their first two games in the Crescent City. You can still catch the Saints at -6 at Treasure Island, while you can grab the 'Skins at +7 at Golden Nugget if you're feeling the road team instead.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 4

INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Belichick “under” 12-4 last 16 reg season games, Indy “under” 11-3 last 14 (2-1 TY). Colts have covered first two on road this season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


Sunday, Oct. 7

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ugh! Browns 3-0 vs. line TY, but have lost and failed to cover last five vs. Ravens. Harbaugh 4-1 vs. spread last five in games immediately following Steelers.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 4-0 SU and vs. line , have now won and covered eight straight in reg season since late 2017. Also “over” 4-1 last five in reg season. Jags 9-4 vs. spread last 11 away and 7-2 last 9 as dog.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on recent trends.

TENNESSEE at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 1-3 last four as home dog. Titans 3-7 last ten vs. line away in reg season, but have won and covered last 3 in 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Titans, based on recent trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli “under” 9-2 last 11 since mid 2017. Cam has covered first two at home in 2018 after just 5-8 as Charlotte chalk previous two years, and “over” 7-3 last ten reg season.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under," based on Giants’ “totals” trends.

DENVER at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vance Joseph on 2-13-1 spread skid since early 2017. Denver also “under” 8-3 last ten since mid 2017. Jets 6-2-1 last 9 vs. line at MetLife, also “under” 4-2 since late 2017, including 23-0 loss at Denver last December.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on ‘totals” and team trends.

ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel “over” first three TY and five straight since late 2017. Tomlin also just 3-6 last nine as home chalk, but Falcs only 4-7 vs. spread away since LY. Falcs now “over” 2 in a row after “under” 8 straight from late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on recent “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Pack “over” 27-12 since mid 2016. Pack lost and failed to cover both vs. Lions LY (Rodgers out in each) for first time since Wayne Fontes was coaching Detroit in ‘91. Last five and 6 of last 7 in series “over” as well.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

MIAMI at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Tannehill 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 vs. line in his last ten starts. Dolphins also on 10-5 “over” run. Cincy 4-1 vs. points last five at Paul Brown and “over” five straight since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

OAKLAND at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Raiders had covered three straight and 7 of 8 at Bolts in SD before LY at StubHub. Underdog team 15-3 last 18 meetings. Series “under” 4-1 last five.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Raiders, based on “totals” and extended series trends.

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cards “under” first four TY and 14-6 since start of 2017. Also 2-7 vs. line last 9 away though has won and covered last two at Levi’s.
Tech Edge: "Under" based on “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Zimmer no covers last three TY, but 18-9 as reg season dog entering 2018. Pederson 12-5-1 vs. line in reg season at Linc since taking over in 2016.
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on extended Zimmer dog marks.

L.A. RAMS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rams 3-0-1 vs. line TY, and “over" 13-7 in reg season since McVay arrived LY. Hawks just 3-7 vs. spread last ten reg season at home.
Tech Edge: Rams and slight to “over,” based on recent team and "totals" trends.

DALLAS at HOUSTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Texans 1-9 SU last ten, 2-8 vs. line in those. Though only three of those ten at home. Dallas no covers first two away TY , and “under” 11-2 last 13 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


Monday, Oct. 8

WASHINGTON at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Road team has covered all four Saints games to date. Brees “over” 8-4 last 12 as host. Jay Gruden “over” 10-4 last 14 away from FedEx Field.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Ugly Dogs - Week 5

The entire purpose of the Ugly Dogs is to take a good look at the teams that nobody wants to take. The only way to survive NFL betting is to force yourself to take teams that nobody dare would lay money on. Conventional “wisdom” consistently busts bankrolls in the NFL. It also offers enhanced betting value on the Ugly Dogs.

After all, if the linemaker is going to attract betting action on teams nobody wants he has to sweeten the pot and offer a better price than what may actually be warranted. Right from the start in Week 5 we have some truly ugly looking dogs. Let’s take a look at those teams that the masses will be avoiding and opposing.

Indianapolis Colts +10 at New England Patriots

The Patriots exposed the Miami Dolphins as AFC East pretenders and showed them who is boss in a devastating 38-7 annihilation. Now the meek and sluggish Colts will come calling to Gillette Stadium on Thursday night. Not only are the Colts 1-3 straight up but they are also rebuilding and have little if any supporting cast to go with quarterback Andrew Luck. Nobody wants the Colts in what is expected to be a slaughter. Yet how can the Patriots match their perfect performance from last week? Don’t be surprised if the Colts stay within the big number against a 2-2 New England team that may be feeling too satisfied.

New York Giants +7 at Carolina Panthers

Speaking of teams going through a painful rebuild the New York Giants come to mind. They will now be facing a Carolina team that is being touted as a top NFC title contender. Yet as bad as the Giants have looked the Panthers have been rather sluggish themselves with middle of the road rankings for both offense and defense. The Giants defense has been better than expected and could very well be the deciding factor in getting the money.

Detroit Lions +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

Detroit is coming off a tough 26-24 loss at Dallas that followed their epic Sunday Night home upset of the New England Patriots. Few teams are avoided like the plague more than the Detroit Lions with the betting public. And after Green Bay’s 22-0 home payout over Buffalo the public will be flocking even more to the Packers and Aaron Rodgers than usual. Detroit has already proven their worth as a dangerous home dog with that win over the Patriots. Green Bay will find Detroit’s offense far more talented that the Bills.

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 at San Francisco 49ers

Sure, the Arizona Cardinals have been absolutely dreadful so far with an 0-4 record. But the San Francisco 49ers being favored against anyone defies the imagination. The 49ers are not only battered by a rash of injuries but were also overrated after they won their last five meaningless games at the end of last season. Keep in mind that as bad as the Cardinals have been they have come away with the cash in two of their four losses so far in 2018. Meanwhile the 49ers have failed to pay in three out of four chances.

Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens

After the Ravens Sunday Night Football statement making 26-14 win at the Pittsburgh Steelers few gamblers will have the nerve to oppose them in their upcoming game at Cleveland against a Browns team that is always an ugly dog. After a winless season in 2017 the Browns have nowhere to go but up. In fact, Cleveland is showing solid improvement with three payouts in four games and will be catching a Ravens team primed for a letdown spot.

Buffalo Bills +3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans

Buffalo was truly awful in their 22-0 loss at Green Bay. But some of that most certainly can be attributed to their 27-6 win at Minnesota as 16.5-point dogs the week prior. Tennessee ranks 28th in the NFL for scoring offense which leaves the door open for the Bills. True, nobody wants to bet money on Buffalo which is the entire point of why they merit legitimate consideration as a home ugly dog.

[StarDust Bum]

Teams to Watch - Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL starts on Thursday night, with the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots going head to head. That game will actually be part of this piece, as we once again look at teams to play and avoid in the coming week. As always, we will be giving you a pair of teams to play, in one form or another, this week, while also delivering two teams that you should probably avoid if you want to keep your bankroll intact.

Let’s get right to our play and avoid predictions for Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season with all odds, props and futures provided by YouWager.eu.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

While it is certainly good to see Andrew Luck back under center for the Colts, it’s fair to suggest that he has not yet reached the heights we saw from him before his shoulder injury. Perhaps the Colts brass are easing him back into action, or perhaps they don’t think he has the arm strength to go deep on a regular basis. Whatever the case, the Colts have been struggling and will probably continue to do so on Thursday night.

The rumors of the demise of the Patriots appear to have been greatly exaggerated, as they pounded the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. Rookie RB Sony Michel is finally fit and ready to go, plus New England gets Julian Edelman back from suspension for this one, which is why I suggest you play the New England Patriots.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

With this game, we get one of the best defenses in the league going against one of the most exciting offensive units that the NFL has to offer. It’s also one of the more intriguing match-ups of the week, especially with the Jags offense coming to life in a 31-12 win over the New York Jets. While it would be easy to get carried away with the play of Blake Bortles in that one, let’s remember that it was the Jets that Jacksonville were up against.

Bortles is going to need to come out and match what Patrick Mahomes does for the Chiefs, which I don’t think he can do. This is why I would avoid the Jacksonville Jaguars.


Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Heading into Week 4, the Dolphins were one of just 3 unbeaten teams left in the league, but they have now left those ranks after getting soundly beaten by the New England Patriots. Things do not get any easier for them this week, as they will be on the road to face a Cincinnati Bengals team that is currently sitting atop the AFC North with a 3-1 record.

They have been putting things together quite nicely on the offensive side of the football and are coming off a huge win on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. I think we might be about to see the Dolphins lose back to back games, which is why I will play the Cincinnati Bengals.


Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

The Dallas Cowboys avoided dropping to 1-3 on the season by the skin of their teeth, scoring late to get the win against the Detroit Lions last week. While it was nice to get the win, the Cowboys issues have not been solved by any stretch of the imagination. They also have an injury list that appears to be getting longer with each passing week.

The Houston Texans broke their goose egg in Week 3 with a win over the Indianapolis Colts, but they too still have some work to do to get back into the playoff picture. I think they can keep the good times rolling in Week 5, which is why I will avoid the Dallas Cowboys.

[StarDust Bum]

TRYING OUR LUCK (AGAIN) WITH BUCK

Last week, we suggested betting on Ravens running back Javorious “Buck” Allen to score a touchdown at any time, mostly because of the praise he received from coach Jim Harbaugh and the extra touches he was getting near the goal line. That bet didn’t cash as Alex Collins got the only rushing touchdown for the Ravens in Week 4. But it’s important to analyze exactly what happened with the rushing splits between the two running backs. Collins scored on the first red-zone carry of the night and then on the second he fumbled, and it was recovered by Pittsburgh. From that point on, Allen received all four of the red-zone carries. Bettors should expect Allen to get the majority of red-zone carries against Cleveland this week and we’re again backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


FEWER SNAPS FOR CALLAWAY?

If you only look at the numbers, it would appear a breakout is due for Cleveland rookie receiver Antonio Callaway as he posted nine targets and a team-high 138 air yards in Week 4. But Callaway has made a lot of mistakes and coach Hue Jackson had this to say about those miscues on Tuesday: “Maybe not playing as many plays as he plays in a game will help him get to step back, look, take a blow, come back, and do it again."

Callaway has all the talent in the world but so far has only been able to haul in 10-of-24 targets and doesn’t have more than four catches in a game yet this season. This weekend, it sounds like he’ll be playing fewer snaps and, when he does get on the field, it’ll be against a Ravens squad ranked fourth in passing defense. We’re taking the Under 50.5 on his receiving yards total.


NOT READY FOR GORDON

Patriots fans are giddy over the prospect of having Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Rob Gronkowski running routes together for the rest of the season. If they can stay healthy (and out of trouble), it could be one of the more potent receiving groups in the league, but we’re not ready to put money behind Gordon just yet. He played just 22 snaps (18%) in Week 4 and had one catch for 17 yards on two targets. He’s just not up to speed with the offense yet and, with the Pats being on a short week, that’s not likely to change on Thursday night. We’re taking the Under 52.5 on his receiving yards total.


HENRY TO CASH IN

The Buffalo Bills looked a lot more like the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, getting shut out 22-0 at Green Bay. Fading the Bills is going to pay off more often than not as we don’t expect many wins like the one in Minnesota in Week 3. Buffalo hosts Tennessee this week and, although we don’t love betting on the Titans offense, we do like Derrick Henry to hit pay dirt.

The Bills don’t have a terrible run defense (ranked 11th at 95.2 yards against per game) but they have given up five rushing touchdowns, putting them only behind the Cardinals and the Falcons for most in the league. Henry, while posting just 40.8 yards on 13.5 carries per game, does have nine red-zone carries on the season, including seven in the past two weeks. To put that into perspective, Dion Lewis has zero red-zone carries in the last two weeks and Marcus Mariota has just one. Henry hasn’t found the end zone yet this season but that is bound to change this week and we’re backing him to score at any time.


BIG DAY COMING FOR BORTLES

As mentioned yesterday, Leonard Fournette is likely to miss multiple games, including this weekend’s tasty matchup with Kansas City. Because of this, we suggested taking the Over 4.5 on Keelan Cole’s reception total and we’re going to stack that with a Blake Bortles bet.

In the five games that Jacksonville has played without Fournette, dating back to last season, Bortles has attempted 34.4 pass attempts per game. Bortles passed for 376 yards without Fournette in Week 2 and then 388 yards last week in a game that Fournette was forced out of early with an injury. This week, the Jags travel to Kansas City. Yes, Jacksonville has the league’s best defense, but Kansas City will score, and Bortles is going to be forced to throw a lot if the Jags want to keep pace. The Chiefs are giving up 328.5 passing yards per game and we expect Bortles to get near that mark on Sunday. We’re taking the Over 287.5 on his passing yards total.

[StarDust Bum]

Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

— Arizona is 2-8 in its last ten games as road underdogs.

— Denver is 2-13-1 vs spread in its last 16 games.

— Detroit covered six of its last eight games.

— Cleveland is 4-12 in its last 16 games as home underdogs.

— Ravens are 13-4 vs spread in their last 17 divisional games.

— Green Bay is 10-5 in its last 15 games as divisional road favorites.

******************************


NFL's Top ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

1. Chiefs 4-0 ATS
t2. Rams 3-1 ATS
t2. Ravens 3-1 ATS
t2. Bears 3-1 ATS
t2. Bengals 3-1 ATS
t2. Jaguars 3-1 ATS
t2. Dolphins 3-1 ATS
t2. Titans 3-1 ATS
t2. Browns 3-1 ATS
t2. Lions 3-1 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

32. Broncos 0-3-1 ATS
t22. 49ers 1-3 ATS
t22. Steelers 1-3 ATS
t22. Jets 1-3 ATS
t22. Giants 1-3 ATS
t22. Texans 1-3 ATS
t22. Bills 1-3 ATS
t22. Falcons 1-3 ATS
t22. Eagles 1-3 ATS
t22. Chargers 1-3 ATS
t22. Cowboys 1-3 ATS


NFL's Top OVER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

t1. Bengals 4-0
t1. Chargers 4-0
t1. Buccaneers 4-0
t4. Falcons 3-1
t4. Lions 3-1
t4. Packers 3-1
t4. Chiefs 3-1
t4. Steelers 3-1
t4. 49ers 3-1


NFL's Top UNDER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

1. Cardinals 4-0
t2. Cowboys 3-1
t2. Broncos 3-1
t2. Patriots 3-1
t2. Giants 3-1
t2. Seahawks 3-1
7. Redskins 2-1
t8. 14 teams tied at 2-2

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s six-pack

Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

— Steelers are 2-8 vs spread in their last ten games.

— Chargers are 2-11 vs spread in last 13 AFC West home games.

— Minnesota is 12-3 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

— Chiefs are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite.

— 49ers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as home favorites.

— Washington is 2-8 in game following its last ten byes.

Quote of the Day
“I want all of the positions to touch it. There’s nothing balanced about 50 percent run, 50 percent pass, because that’s 50 percent stupid. Now, what is balanced is when you have five skill positions … if all five of them are contributing to the offensive effort in a somewhat equal fashion, then that’s balanced, but this notion that, if you hand it to one guy 50 percent of the time and then you throw it to a combination of two guys the other 50 percent, that you’re really balanced … you probably pat yourself on the back and tell yourself that, and people have been doing that for decades. Well, you’re delusional.”
Washington State coach Mike Leach

Thursday’s quiz
Which NFL team(s) has Steve Spurrier coached?

Wednesday’s quiz
Paul Silas was Lebron James’ first head coach in the NBA.

Tuesday’s quiz
Colts’ kicker Adam Viniatieri played for NFL Europe’s Amsterdam Admirals, in 1996.


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Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) One of the coolest things about coming to Las Vegas is that this is the big leagues of gambling; sometimes I lose sight of that on my visits here. Tuesday, a guy cashed $41,500 worth of baseball futures winnings and used that money on five futures wagers on NBA/NHL teams, and a baseball bet.

Full disclosure: this gentleman likes the Heat/Mavericks in NBA, Sharks/Sabres in NHL, and the Brewers to win the World Series.

12) After scoring a TD with 0:26 left in Sunday’s game and up 31-12, Jacksonville went for two points; why? Does Doug Marrone hate the Jets? Did the Jets get mad? Why is this smart?

Just kick the PAT and go home; whats the point of making an enemy for the future?

11) Patrick Mahomes sat the first 15 games LY and then played the last game; did sitting and watching almost a whole season of games help him this season? Is it fair to throw a rookie into the fray right out of college, especially if he left college early?

These are billion dollar questions that NFL teams have to answer. Answer them wrong, and you’ll be looking for a new job.

10) One person on ESPN who is well worth watching: Scott Van Pelt on the late SportsCenter. He is smart, has a sense of humor and his people work at their jobs- they provide good info.

9) 76ers-Mavericks are playing two games in China this weekend; hopefully no one will steal anything and embarrass our country, the way the UCLA kids did last year.

8) Was fun to flip channels Monday night and find an Orlando-Philly preseason game; I’m a basketball guy, though more of a college hoop guy, but was fun to see an NBA game.

7) Le’Veon Bell will return to the Steelers during their bye week (Week 7) so he’ll miss two more games. Would be interesting to see the greeting he gets from teammates when he returns.

6) Tampa Bay did the expected and named Jameis Winston starting QB for their game next week; Buccaneers have their bye this week.

Did Ryan Fitzpatrick do enough to earn a contract form yet another team next year?

5) Scapegoat: a person who is blamed for the wrongdoings, mistakes, or faults of others, especially for reasons of expediency.

Arizona fired hitting coach Dave Magadan this week. Yup, it was all his fault; maybe they shouldn’t have put a humidor in the stadium, to deaden the baseballs. I’m pretty sure that wasn’t Magadan who decided to do that.

4) Minnesota Twins surprisingly made the playoffs LY, went 78-84 this year, and then fired Paul Molitor Tuesday after four seasons running the team. Why?

The worst part of the Analystics Era is that the pencil pushers don’t value managers nearly enough, and believe me, I’m a pencil pusher myself. But I know how important a manager is in setting the tone for the team and keeping things positive.

Computers and charts don’t win games; players do, and the human interaction between players and coaches is very important.

3) Backup PG DJ Augustin has finally found a home with the Orlando Magic; this will be his third year in Orlando, after he played for seven different teams in five years, from 2012-16.

2) Last six times Baltimore Ravens beat their rivals the Steelers, they went 4-2 vs spread the next week, so not much post-victory letdown for them.

1) Surprising fact: Over last 23 years, only five times has the team with the best regular season record won the World Series

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots' TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) returned to practice Wednesday on a limited basis.
Gronk is still listed as very Questionable for Thursday's game vs. Colts.
Pointspread: Pats -10
Total: 51

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Colts' WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) has been ruled OUT for Week 5 at Patriots.
Pointspread: Pats -10
Total: 51