Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

[StarDust Bum]

Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

— Steelers are 2-8 vs spread in their last ten games.

— Chargers are 2-11 vs spread in last 13 AFC West home games.

— Minnesota is 12-3 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

— Chiefs are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite.

— 49ers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as home favorites.

— Washington is 2-8 in game following its last ten byes.

[StarDust Bum]

WHITE HOT IN THE RED ZONE

Happy Thursday! As per tradition, we kick off the NFL week with a prop and for it, we head to New England where the Pats host the Colts. When you look at the box score from last week’s Patriots-Dolphins game, the running back who stands out is Sony Michel with his 25 carries, 112 yards, and a touchdown. But if you watched the game closely, you would’ve noticed that, when the game was still close, Michel left in the field in the red zone in favor of James White.

Michel did end the day with six red-zone touches and a touchdown, but four of those carries came when the Patriots were ahead by 17 or more points. It almost looked as if Bill Belichick wanted Michel to get his first-career touchdown. White, meanwhile, had two red-zone carries, scored on a 22-yard run, and had two red-zone targets and a receiving touchdown. Tom Brady trusts White and bettors should as well by backing him to score a touchdown at any time on Thursday Night Football.


PACKERS DOWN RECEIVERS

Green Bay has some issues at receiver with Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) both on the wrong side of questionable ahead of Sunday’s game in Detroit. In addition, Jimmy Graham (knee) missed practice on Wednesday and Davante Adams (calf) was limited — both are expected to play but clearly, neither is at 100 percent.

With skill players dropping around him like flies, life isn’t getting easier for a hobbled Aaron Rodgers whose numbers have been quite pedestrian so far this season as he has yet to break the 300-yard passing mark. This week, he plays an underrated Lions passing defense that ranks second in the NFL, giving up just 171.8 yards per game. Sunday is trending towards being a tough day for Rodgers and we’re leaning towards the Under on his passing yards total of 299.5.


FADING KEENUM

Through four games, Denver Broncos fans can’t be overly thrilled with the Case Keenum signing. He had an up-and-down opener with 329 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, but since then he hasn’t thrown a touchdown, has thrown three interceptions, and has passing yards totals of 222, 192, and 245 — and that 245 came against Kansas City, a team that had allowed opposing quarterbacks 375.6 passing yards in the first three weeks.

This week, Keenum and the Broncos head to New York to take on a Jets unit that ranks second in passing defense DVOA. It’s much easier to run against the Jets (16th in rushing defense DVOA) and the Broncos will likely plan to use a lot of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. We’re fading Keenum and taking the Under 260.5 on his passing yards total.


TRYING AGAIN WITH ALLEN

Last week, we suggested betting on Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to score a touchdown at any time and, admittedly, it missed badly as the Bills were shut out in Green Bay. This week, Buffalo returns home to take on a tough Tennessee defense but we’re going out on a limb and making the same bet again this week and there are a few reasons why.

First, Allen is really the only rushing option in the red zone with eight carries inside the 20 on the season — the rest of the Bills (LeSean McCoy, Chris Ivory, and Marcus Murphy) combined only have five. Second, the Titans have given up yards to quarterbacks on the ground so far this season with Deshaun Watson running for 44 and Blake Bortles for 27. Finally, the odds for Allen to score a touchdown at any time were set at +700 last week and will likely be similar this week, meaning bettors can afford to miss this one a few times before it hits, and it will still turn a nice profit.


SHOOTOUT IN STEEL CITY

If you like shootouts, look no further than the Atlanta-Pittsburgh game on Sunday that has a total that opened at 55 and has since been bet up to 57.5. Both teams are stacked on offense and hurting on defense, meaning points should come early and often. Oddsmakers are expecting huge games from just about everyone, but Pittsburgh tight end Vance MacDonald might not be getting the respect he deserves on the props market.

Since his debut in Week 2, MacDonald has been an important piece of the Steelers’ offense with lines of 3-26-0, 4-112-1, and 5-62-0. He’s also received a steady five targets each week and is running a pass route on 80.6 percent of his snaps, the highest rate of any tight end in the NFL. He’s one of the few players who doesn’t have an inflated total for Sunday and we’re liking MacDonald to go over his Over 3.5 receptions total.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Colts at Patriots
Tony Mejia

Indianapolis at New England (-10, 51), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

The Patriots bounced back from a loss in Jacksonville where they looked inferior on both sides of the ball by stomping out Miami’s illusions on Sunday.

For the second straight season, the Patriots have started 2-2, which has welcomed in the naysayers and attracts those eager to sprinkle dirt prematurely on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the most successful football franchise we’ve seen this century.

The months after losing to Philadelphia in Super Bowl have been filled with drama, acrimony and speculation over trade talk and the potential retirement of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. There have been no answers over why Malcolm Butler was scratched against the Eagles or why other popular players weren’t brought back. After Matt Patricia’s Detroit defense dominated New England on Sunday night in Week 3, all the noise started up again.

The Patriots needed to handle business last week to throw on the noise-canceling headphones, officially putting the past in the rear-view mirror now that we’re a month in and games are the primary focus.

New England avoided hearing all about how the sky is falling by dominating the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in a game they entered in danger of falling three games behind the pace in the AFC East had they lost. Instead, they scored the game’s first 38 points, breaking things open in the second quarter behind a pair of Tom Brady touchdown tosses and a James White TD run, one of two scores on the day. Rookie RB Sony Michel supplied the exclamation point with a 10-yard fourth-quarter TD run and wound up with 112 yards on 25 carries. He’s carved out a major role, which is fitting since September ended with the emergence of a new cast of characters.

Beyond Michel’s emergence, Cordarrelle Patterson rattled off the big catch-and-run that was representative of exactly what the Patriots hoped he’d bring to the table with his blazing speed. Josh Gordon debuted and contributed. Even though he’s still working his way back from a hamstring injury, the attention he commands makes him an effective decoy even when he’s not getting the ball. Former Colts first-round pick Phillip Dorsett scored for the second time this season, joining Chris Hogan and White with multiple receiving touchdowns. Gronk found the end zone first to open the season but hasn’t scored since and is dealing with an ankle issue but was cleared to play on Thursday morning.

With Julian Edelman also returning from suspension to make his season debut, there’s no longer a responsible way to say that Brady lacks weapons. There may be new faces in play, but the argument can be made that Gordon’s acquisition gives him his most talented receiver since Randy Moss, while Patterson gives him his fastest target.

It’s easy to write that we should all forget about “Deflategate” as a driving force here, but there may still be some residue in play.

Although this is only the second meeting between these teams since the accusation that New England’s quarterback conspired to doctor footballs in the 2014-15 AFC Championship Game was levied, that’s ancient history now.

Consider who is involved here. Bill Belichick is a known grudge-holder. Brady doesn’t need a reason to run up a score, but he’s long been among the NFL’s most competitive performers and had to serve a four-game suspension in ’16. He hasn’t seen the Colts since. This will also be the first time the Colts come into Foxborough since the scandal, so you’re likely to see a fan base that scans the internet for slights to pack a little extra for an old accuser.

Indianapolis is far removed from the days where it could be counted among New England’s threats. The Colts are still bringing Andrew Luck back after missing all of last season, but he looked more like his old self in Sunday’s OT loss despite losing T.Y. Hilton to an in-game injury. Luck rallied the Colts from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit despite working with the likes of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and newcomers at tight end (Eric Ebron, Mo Alie-Cox) and running back (Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins).

Before Luck was injured, he was handing off to the legendary Frank Gore. He’s now working with a pair of rookies, who despite their talent, haven’t made life any easier from a continuity standpoint. This will be a learning experience for many of the Colts, who will be going through a short week situation – on the road, no less – for the first time.

Indianapolis is expected to be missing as many as seven starters and will be entering a venue where sympathy will be hard to find. Check out the injury report below for details. There’s a chance that we could see showers throughout this game and the potential for wind gusts of over 20 miles per hour exist, which could work to the Colts’ benefit in slowing New England down. Luck is 0-5 against Brady.

Indianapolis Colts
Season win total: 7.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win AFC South: 7/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 45/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

New England Patriots
Season win total: 11 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC East: 1/4 to 1/5
Odds to win AFC: 7/2 to 7/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1 to 8/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened the regular season a 1-to-8 favorite to win the AFC East, which suggests an 88.9 percent chance of continuing their dominant run of 14 division titles in 15 years. Although the Dolphins got off to a great start and went up two games, New England's odds never really wavered, moving to 1/4 (80%) before improving following the weekend's conquest of the Miami. The Colts were the AFC South's biggest longshot to open the season at 4/1 and has seen that number reach 10/1 after a slow start.

The Patriots also opened as the AFC favorite (3/1) and the Super Bowl favorite (6/1) for the entire league. Kansas City (5/2) has supplanted the Pats as the AFC's top dog, both in the standings and for futures purposes. Only the L.A. Rams (9/5) and Kansas City (6/1) have better odds than New England (8/1) to win the Super Bowl. Indianapoilis has the same odds as the Browns (50/1) to win the AFC, better than only the Raiders (100/1), Jets (150/1) and Bills (500/1).

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Patriots were installed as a 8-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced but opened this week laying 10. There are a few 10.5's out there and we may see this dip to 9.5 in the offshore market. The total opened at 55.5 an quickly was bet down to 53/53.5 before settling in at 51. Team totals have been set up with the Patriots number at 31 and Indy's at 20.5.

New England is a massive -500 favorite on the money line, while Indianapolis will get you +400/+425 on your investment.

INJURY CONCERNS

Hilton's absence for Indianapolis will make the most noise but isn't the only issue that the eam will have to overcome. Starting corner Kenny Moore and backup Quincy Wilson will miss this game with concussions, while Nate Hairston (ankle) should play, possibly doing so only because the team is so thin in the secondary. Safety Clayton Geathers, one of the top tacklers, is questionable with a knee injury, while linebacker Darius Leonard is dealing with a knee issue.

Up front, Indy is hoping to have left tackle Anthony Castonzo make his season debut despite no practice time at all this season, so his availability is something to montior. Versatile Denzelle Good is out, away from the team due to the death of his brother earlier this week in South Carolina. Center Ryan Kelly, whose botched snap helped contribute to Sunday's loss, is questionable. Tight end Jack Doyle (hip) and RB Marlon Mack (hamstring) also remain sidelined.

The Patriots are in much better shape entering a game on a short week, but did have to put RB Rex Burkhead and rookie LB Ja'Whaun Bentley went on injured reserve. Tackle LaAdrian Waddle (illness) and corner Eric Rowe (groin) join Gronkowski (ankle) as being questionable. Defensive linemen Danny Shelton (elbow), Geneo Grissom (ankle) and Adam Butler (leg) are also all dinged up.

RECENT MEETINGS (New England 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS last eight; OVER 7-2-1)

10/18/15 New England 34-27 at Indianapolis (NE -9.5, 54.5)
1/18/15 New England 45-7 vs. Indianapolis (NE -7, 52)
11/16/14 New England 42-20 at Indianapolis (NE +3, 57)
1/11/14 New England 43-22 vs. Indianapolis (NE -7, 51)
11/18/12 New England 59-24 vs. Indianapolis (NE -10, 55)
12/4/11 New England 31-24 vs. Indianapolis (IND +20.5, 48.5)
11/21/10 New England 31-28 vs. Indianapolis (IND +4.5, 50)
11/15/09 Indianapolis 35-34 vs. New England (NE +1.5, 48.5)
11/2/08 Indianapolis 18-15 vs. New England (NE +6.5, 44)
11/4/07 New England 24-20 at Indianapolis (IND +5, 56.5)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag I'd ride the first score being a touchdown and will trust Indy's Adam Vinatieri to best his successor in New England, Stephen Gostkowski, for the game's longest field goal.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Patriots -240, Colts +200)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Patriots -330, Colts +270)
Team to score first: (Patriots -175, Colts +155)
Team to score last: (Patriots -140, Colts +120)
First score: (Touchdown -175, FG/Safety +155)
First turnover: (None +900, Fumble +165, INT -210)
Highest scoring half: 1st -120, 2nd + OT +100)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over -110, Under -110)
Team with longest TD scored: (Patriots -185, Colts +160)
Team with longest FG made: (Patriots -140, Colts +120)
2-point conversion action: (Successful +280, No conversion/No attempt -340)
4th down conversion action: (Successful -300, No conversion/No attempt +250)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)
Will there be a kickoff return touchdown?: (Yes +1400, No -2500)
Will there be a 0 or 1-yard TD?: (Yes -125, No +105)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1000, No -1500)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -250, No +210)


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 6 currently has the Colts liisted as a 1-point road underdog at the Jets. The Patriots will be back in the national spotlight, hosting the Chiefs on Sunday night for a showdown that's going to be among the season's most hyped. New England has been made a 3-point favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Wager
October 4, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Preview – Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

The biggest favorite in the NFL in Week 5 is the New England Patriots, as they are laying 10 points on Thursday night against the Indianapolis Colts in a game that can be seen on FOX and NFL Network. The Colts are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Texans, while the Patriots routed the Dolphins.

If you go against the Patriots you do so at your own peril, as the Patriots under Bill Belichick are 11-3 in Thursday games, and Tom Brady is 11-1 as a starter in Thursday games. Let’s look at this Week 5 matchup and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Thursday, October 4, 2018, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Patriots -10, O/U 50.5
Colts vs. Patriots TV Coverage: FOX/NFL Network

The Colts are coming off an overtime loss to Houston that could have defined their season but head coach Frank Reich said his team has moved past the loss. “It just appears to me the maturity level of these young players are eager to get on to the next game, just eager to get ready,” Reich said to the media. “You’ve got to move on from this one real fast,” Reich said. “We know how quick a turnaround that is here. A very well-coached team, a good football team. So all eyes on New England.”

The Colts will be shorthanded on Thursday night, as it appears that left tackle Anthony Castonzo will not return this week and right tackle Joe Haeg went on injured reserve last week. Pro Bowl receiver T.Y. Hilton left last week’s game with a chest injury and Reich was not optimistic that Hilton will play on Thursday on the short week.

Indianapolis also has two cornerbacks, Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore II, in the concussion protocol and cornerback Nate Hairston has a lower leg injury. The only good news for the Colts is that running back Robert Turbin returns after a four-game suspension.

Get used to watching the New England Patriots in prime time in the next month, as they will be on in prime time in four of the next five weeks. The Patriots are an outstanding team in the month of October, as they are NFL-best 57-18 in the month of October since 2000. They are 32-5 at home and 25-12 on the road.

One injury worth keeping an eye on with the Patriots is the one to tight end Rob Gronkowski. He left last week’s game with an ankle injury and he is listed as questionable for Thursday night.

Key Stats

This will be the first meeting between the Colts and Patriots since 2015. This will be the eighth time since 2000 that they will be playing in prime time. This will be the 81st meeting in the series, with the Patriots leading 47-28 in the regular season and 4-1 in the playoffs. The Patriots are 29-12 when playing at home against the Colts.

The Colts are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games. The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 5. The Patriots are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games in October. The Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games.

Looking at the total, the Under is 6-0 in the Colts last 6 road games. The Under is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 games in October. The Under is 13-6 in the Patriots last 19 games overall. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings at New England.

Colts vs. Patriots Picks

I have to say first that I hate laying double-digits in the NFL and I hate going with the public. The problem I have with taking the Colts is that they are probably not going to have their best receiver in Hilton and their secondary is banged up. The Patriots have been excellent under Belichick on Thursday night and I just can’t see the Colts trading points with the Patriots in this one, so I will lay the points and take New England.

Colts vs. Patriots Pick: Patriots -10 at BetDSI
Colts vs. Patriots Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Colts 13

[StarDust Bum]

Top Props - Colts vs. Pats
October 4, 2018

By Kyle Markus

NFL Football - Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Props

The New England Patriots are sizable favorites to win their “Thursday Night Football” matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5. While many are convinced this game won’t be super competitive, there are always intriguing things to watch because of the number of wagers available for this primetime matchup.

There are the standard bets from the spread to the scoring total to the moneyline, but beyond that, there are a ton of prop bets. That is the game within the game, and for those who have a good idea on what is going to transpire, it can be a lucrative endeavor.

Let’s take a look at some of the prop bets for this Colts-Patriots matchup in NFL betting lines.

This NFL football game between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots will be held at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts at 8:20 p.m ET on Thursday, October 4th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on FOX.

We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The spread for this matchup is listed at 10 points. The Patriots are the heavy -500 favorites on the moneyline while the Colts are the +390 underdogs to pull the upset. The scoring total is listed at 51 points.

Beyond those standard wagers are all of the interesting prop bets. They break the game down into subsections as bettors who are confident in a certain aspect of the game can make their wagers here.

The Patriots are the favorites, so it’s not a surprise to see they are favored to score first. New England comes in as the -185 favorite to get on the board first while the Colts are the +150 underdog.

One prop bet asks if there will be a score in the first six minutes of the contest. It could be a high-scoring affair, which is why the vig is an even -115 in this one when the “no” is often the favorite in these situations.

The Colts’ total points is set at 20.5 points. It is an intriguing number because Indianapolis may have to go to the air often down the stretch if it faces a deficit. This could come down to whether or not star quarterback Andrew Luck can lead a late scoring drive.

The Patriots’ over/under point total is set at 30.5 points. New England has had some issues offensively this season but got rolling last week and now welcomes back wide receiver Julian Edelman from suspension. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is dealing with an ankle injury but if he can play, the Patriots will have a ton of weapons on offense.

The longest touchdown of the game prop bet is listed at 45.5 yards. Bettors have to decide whether or not one of the teams will come up with a score from beyond that mark. Luck put up good numbers last week but he is throwing shorter more often than usual. Wideout T.Y. Hilton is not going to play, which takes away one of the big-play targets in this one for the Colts.

The total field goals made by both teams in this one is listed at 3.5. The Patriots’ offense may be too good, scoring touchdowns often instead of settling for field goals. If the Colts fall behind by multiple scores, they may have to forgo field goals and go for touchdowns. The “under” seems like a good play.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The best prop bet play of this Thursday night matchup asks if the largest lead of the game will be higher than 17.5 points. The Patriots are the clear favorites, but the Colts have enough offensive firepower to keep this game closer than that. New England is likely to take a double-digit lead in this contest but 17.5 points is too large of a spread in NFL prop bets.

NFL ATS Pick: Largest lead “under” 17.5 points in the Colts-Patriots matchup

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/30/2018 12-14-0 46.15% -17.00
09/27/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/23/2018 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/16/2018 17-8-0 68.00% +41.00
09/13/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/09/2018 15-10-1 60.00% +20.00
09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50


NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/01/2018.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
09/30/2018.............5 - 3...................+8.50....................6 - 5...............+2.50..............+11.00
09/27/2018.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
09/23/2018.............6 - 4...................+8.00....................2 - 4...............-12.00..............-4.00
09/20/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1...............-5.50................-11.00
09/16/2018.............5 - 2..................+14.00...................3 - 2...............+4.00..............+18.00
09/13/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1................-5.50...............-11.00
09/09/2018.............4 - 4...................-2.00.....................8 - 3...............+23.50............+21.50
09/06/2018.............1 - 0..................+5.00.....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


*************************


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IND at NE 08:20 PM

IND +10.5

U 49.5

[StarDust Bum]

Brady lifts Patriots over Colts, 38-24
October 4, 2018

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) On a night when he reached 500 career touchdown passes, Tom Brady welcomed back a buddy with one of his three scoring tosses Thursday, then connected with a newcomer who could help him reach more milestones.

Brady also sneaked in for a rushing touchdown and the New England Patriots put together their second straight win after a mediocre start to the season, beating Indianapolis 38-24.

Brady's 500th went to Josh Gordon, recently acquired from Cleveland, where he basically was unavailable through NFL suspensions for all but five games over the past three seasons. But, as he often does, Brady spread the wealth, hitting running back James White 10 times for 77 yards, and greeting the return of buddy Julian Edelman by completing seven for 57 yards to him.

''We wanted to get him the ball and he made some great plays,'' Brady said about Edelman. ''Just good to have him out there. We all want it to be perfect when we go out and it was great to have him out there ... healthy and having fun.''

As for 500 TD passes, third on the career list behind Peyton Manning (539) and Brett Favre (508), Brady called it a collective mark.

''I think all these things like that, milestones, there are so many people that contribute, all the people that have really worked hard,'' he said. ''A quarterback doesn't throw to himself.

''These are all great team awards, pretty cool.''

The five-time NFL champion also tied Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri, a former teammate, for most victories with 226. Brady finished 34 for 44 for 341 yards.

As everyone in Gillette Stadium except, apparently, the Colts knew, Brady started off with a pass to Edelman, who was wide open for 9 yards. That drew the first of many loud cheers for the 10th-year veteran receiver in his first game since the 2017 preseason, when he tore up a knee. Edelman was suspended for the first four games this year for violating the NFL's policy on performance enhancers.

''During the rehab you are just sitting there and waiting to get back on the field,'' Edelman said. ''It felt great to be out there with the guys.''

That was the first of three receptions for 28 yards for Edelman on the opening 75-yard touchdown drive Brady capped with a 1-yard toss to Cordarrelle Patterson .

From there, even though the Colts (1-4) had a drive deep into New England (3-2) territory, usually reliable Adam Vinatieri missed a 38-yard field goal.

Nothing was going right for Indianapolis, particularly after Brady led a 72-yard march to his sneak from the 1. Then he took the Patriots 68 yards near the end of the half and hit workhorse White for a 6-yard score to lead 21-3.

Under pressure, Andrew Luck threw a poor pass that Patrick Chung intercepted at midfield, and Stephen Gostkowski made a 45-yard field goal for a 24-3 halftime lead.

Luck did extend his string of games with a touchdown pass by hitting Eric Ebron on a 14-yarder in the third quarter. Showing a strong arm all night - remember, Luck missed all of 2017 with shoulder issues - he has a TD throw in 28 successive games, tops of any current quarterback.

''We're not going to win consistently until we learn how to get out of our own way,'' Luck said. ''That's not taking anything away from New England. They were the better team today. Anybody who watched it or played in it knows it. It was self-evident.

''But we're going to have to learn how not to lose if we want to give ourselves a chance to win.''

After Matthias Farley's interception of a pass bobbled by Chris Hogan, Indy could do nothing. Rookie Jordan Wilkins had the ball stripped from his hands by Devin McCourty four players later.

But a second pick of Brady that was not his fault - Rob Gronkowski had the ball stolen and Najee Goode wound up with it - helped the Colts get back into it for a short time.

Looking like vintage Luck, he brought his team 80 yards, including a pair of big third-down throws to Ebron, and Eric Swoope caught a 13-yard scoring pass to make it 24-17.

That's when everyone saw vintage Brady as he hit the half-century mark for TD throws by connecting with newcomer Gordon for 34 yards, the 71st player to catch a touchdown pass from Brady, an NFL mark.

''A great play Josh made jumping over two defenders,'' Brady said. ''It tells you kind of the confidence I have in him in a short period of time. Obviously he has earned it.''

KICKING IT

Vinatieri, whose leg helped New England win three Super Bowls, hit the left upright with his 673rd career field goal attempt, the second most in NFL history. He already holds the mark for most field goals made and is closing in on Hall of Famer Morten Andersen's points record, but was victimized by a high snap on the first-quarter miss.

Showing his true skills, Vinatieri later nailed a 54-yarder with plenty to spare.

PRODUCTIVE BACKFIELD

In addition to White's receptions, rookie Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing on 18 carries, including the final New England score, a 34-yard burst down the sideline in the final period.

UNDERMANNED

The Colts were severely depleted, missing five starters, including their best receiver. T.Y. Hilton was out with chest and hamstring injuries. Tight end Jack Doyle (hip), running back Marlon Mack (hamstring), tackle Denzelle Good (personal matter) and cornerback Kenny Moore II (concussion) also were sidelined. They lost five more players during the game.

DEFLATED FEELING

Not much was made of the ''Deflategate'' saga, even though this was Indy's first trip to Gillette Stadium since getting routed in the 2014 AFC title game. That loss led to an NFL investigation of alleged underinflated footballs, and eventually to a four-game suspension for Brady, which he sat out in 2016.

UP NEXT

Colts: at New York Jets on Oct. 14.

Patriots: host Kansas City on Oct. 14.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack

Six highest-paid coaches in college football:

6) Kirby Smart, Georgia, $6.6M

5) Gus Malzahn, Auburn, $6.7M

T3) Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M, $7.5M

T3) Jim Harbaugh, Michigan, $7.5M

2) Urban Meyer, Ohio State, $7.6M

1) Nick Saban, Alabama, $8.3M

Quote of the Day
“Alex (Smith) was being Alex. He left the door open for Patrick (Mahomes) to join him. He said I’m gonna be here at the same time, lifting, eating dinner, watching tape, watching more tape, studying the pictures of the game plan versus all the coverages and doing your own little doodles to figure it out. He (Smith) gave that freely to Patrick, and that doesn’t always happen. That’s a big ego position. The QB room can be a little snitty at times. But Patrick came into a great situation. Alex didn’t make any demands of him, but he didn’t close the door on him in any way. Patrick can’t pay him enough for that opportunity.”
Andy Reid, talking to SI.com

Friday’s quiz
Before the Astros were the Astros, what was their team’s nickname?

Thursday’s quiz
Steve Spurrier coached the Washington Redskins in 2002-03.

Wednesday’s quiz
Paul Silas was Lebron James’ first head coach in the NBA.

********************

Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

13) Took a walk on Fremont Street in downtown Las Vegas this afternoon; there were three guys who appeared to be close to my age (in my 50’s) who were naked except for a thong, and they were posing for pictures, in exchange for money. Ummm, no thanks.

Can’t help but be curious, though, how much cash they make in a day.

12) Brewers 3, Rockies 2 (10)— Mike Moustakas got the game-winning hit (should Colorado have walked him and pitched to Manny Pina?) after the Brewers blew a 2-0 ninth-inning lead. Rockies were playing in their 4th city in five days; Game 2 is Friday, also in Milwaukee.

11) Colorado Buffaloes have a WR named Laviska Shenault who I think will be an NFL player, but the reason he plays football is unusual, and a little sad.

When Shenault was 10 years old, his dad was hit by a car and killed, with Laviska watching; from that point on, the young man starting growing his hair out in dreadlocks and vowed never to cut his hair, to honor his late father.

When he got to high school and was a hotshot basketball player, Shenault was told he couldn’t play on the school’s team unless he cut his hair, but Shenault declined, started concentrating instead on playing football. Not really sure what the basketball coach was thinking about, but this young man is two years away from playing football on Sundays.

10) Was nice to read an Andy Reid quote today about how much Alex Smith helped Patrick Mahomes LY, when Mahomes was Smith’s backup with the Chiefs. Not all QB’s are helpful to their backups, seeing how backups have sometimes taken the starter’s job. Lot of $$$ at stake.

9) 24 college football coaches are making $4M+ this season, led by Nick Saban’s $8.3M.

8) 58% of NFL plays last season were passes; so far this year, that number is up to 61%.

7) In 63 NFL games this season, there have been 72 games where a receiver gained 100+ yards.

All of last season, in 256 games, there were 140 receiving games of 100+ yards.

6) Houston 41, Tulsa 26— Golden Hurricane led 23-17 after three quarters, but Cougars stormed back and now they’re 4-1, while Tulsa is 0-4 vs I-A opponents.

5) Games scoring zero or one run this season: Orioles 40, Cubs 39. Surprising.

4) Top college football teams at going over the total:

Rice 5-0; South Alabama, Utah State 4-0; Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico, Ohio U, Toledo, all 3-0. Missouri 3-0-1

3) Former major league pitcher Mark Mulder is playing in the PGA’s Safeway Open this week, on a sponsor’s exemption. Mulder shot +3 Thursday, and actually beat five pro golfers.

2) Patriots 38, Colts 24— Julian Edelman was back and New England scored 38 points, which is no huge surprise. Andrew Luck threw for 365 yards and didn’t have all that much help from his receivers, who dropped several passes.

1) Dodgers 6, Braves 0— Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed four hits in seven scoreless IP for LA.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


*****************************

Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total................2-2-0.........50.00%.....-1.00

********************

Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals......................1 - 1...................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00

[StarDust Bum]

BREIDA NOT GETTING RESPECT

San Francisco running back Matt Breida is listed as “limited” but is fully expected to play on Sunday at Arizona. This is great news for bettors as opposing running backs are cashing in against the Cardinals. Seattle running back Mike Davis rushed 21 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns against Arizona last week, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen combined for 114 yards in Week 3, Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown combined for 88 yards in Week 2, and Adrian Peterson went for 96 yards in Week 1.

The Niners’ offense will likely want to be a bit more cautious with C.J. Beathard at the helm, especially on the road, meaning they’ll likely lean on the running game. That should mean a lot of touches for Breida, who has been a little banged up but has established himself as a far better option than Alfred Morris. In fact, Breida ranks third in the NFL in rushing with 313 yards. His rushing yards total of 62.5 this week, however, doesn’t seem to reflect that he’s been one of the top backs in football this season. Add in the fact that he’s going against a rush defense ranked 31st in the NFL and we’re taking Breida’s Over with confidence.


MAYFIELD MAY STRUGGLE

Baker Mayfield makes his first home start on Sunday as the Browns host the Baltimore Ravens. The top pick in the 2018 draft had a mixed-bag debut last week at Oakland, throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns but also had two fumbles and two interceptions. The passing yards total was nice, but his turnovers were a huge factor in Cleveland’s loss. Last week, we had suggested taking Under 260 for his passing yards total, which was obviously a losing bet, but we’re going to fade Mayfield for another week. This week, however, it isn’t as much of a bet against Mayfield as it is a bet for his opponent.

The Ravens defense ranks first in both passing-completion percentage against, limiting opposing quarterbacks to 53.85 percent, and in opponent passing yards per attempt at 5.0. Baltimore limited Ben Roethlisberger to 274 yards last week and that was the highest passing yards total the Ravens have allowed in 2018. It’s going to be a struggle for Mayfield on Sunday against a good defense and we’re taking the Under 262.5 on his passing yards total.


NO LOVE FOR DRAKE

What is Miami doing with Kenyan Drake? His carries have steadily declined, from 14 in Week 1 all the way to just three in Week 4 as he seems to have fallen behind 35-year-old Frank Gore who received 11 carries last weekend. Sure, the Dolphins had to abandon the run early in their loss to the Patriots but Gore out-targeted Drake three to two and, to make things worse for Drake backers, Gore even received the only two red-zone carries of the game. Drake is younger and clearly more talented in 2018 than Gore, but he seems to have fallen out of favor with Miami’s coaching staff and we’re taking the Under for his rushing yards this week total until something changes.


JAGS ARE TOUGH ON TIGHT ENDS

Every football knows the Jacksonville Jaguars have one of the top defensive units in the league, but it’s worth noting how incredibly tough they’ve been on tight ends. In Week 1, the Jags faced one of the league’s better tight ends, Evan Engram, and limited him to 18 yards on two receptions. In Week 2, they faced arguably the league’s best tight end in Rob Gronkowski and limited him to 15 yards on two catches. In Weeks 3 and 4, they limited four lesser-known Titans and Jets tight ends to a total of six catches for 51 yards.

This week, they face one of the best again in Kansas City’s Travis Kelce who has been an absolute monster since laying a dud in Week 1 with lines of 7-109-2, 8-114-0, and 7-78-1 in his last three games. The Jags, however, obviously scheme to not allow tight ends to beat them and that’s likely to happen again on Sunday. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has weapons all around him and he’s not going to force feed Kelce if the Jags blanket him all day. We’re not sure if the Jags can completely shut down the Chiefs, but we’re confident that they’ll slow down Kelce. We’re taking the Under 73.5 on his receiving yards total.


MCCOY AN OBVIOUS FADE

Sometimes, a bet doesn’t need an in-depth analysis. This is one of those situations. Here’s what LeSean McCoy has done so far this season in terms of attempts-rushing yards: 7-22, 9-39, DNP, 5-24. Tennesee, meanwhile, ranks 12th in terms of yards from scrimmage allowed to running backs. Not elite, but certainly good enough to stop McCoy on single-digit touches. Perhaps McCoy is still ailing from his rib issue or perhaps the Bills are just preparing for life after LeSean as they rebuild. But until he starts getting a decent amount of touches, we’re taking the Under for his rushing total — which is set at 58.5 for this week.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Rams are 10-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since Dec 24, 2000 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 0-10-1 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since Oct 05, 2015 when their last two games have gone under the total and they won the last one.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Teams are 10-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a loss where Kirk Cousins threw at least 40 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Vikings are 10-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since Nov 11, 2001 as a dog coming off a road loss that went over the total by at least seven points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-13 OU (-9.5 ppg) since Sep 18, 2005 as a road favorite coming off a game where they had at least 250 passing yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-13 ATS (-12.50 ppg) as a dog off a home win in which they had a takeaway margin of at least plus-two.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 5
October 6, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Jaguars at Chiefs (-3, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

These two AFC playoff squads from a season ago have started strong in 2018 by combining for a 7-1 record. Kansas City (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) is the only team in the league that has covered each of its first four games, coming off the dramatic finish in Denver on Monday night. The Chiefs erased a late 23-13 deficit with a pair of touchdowns to cash as 3 ½-point favorites, capped off by Kareem Hunt’s four-yard touchdown scamper. Kansas City finished UNDER the total (barely) for the first time this season, while improving to 10-1 in its past 11 road divisional matchups.

Jacksonville (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) has proven so far that it is not a flash in the pan following last season’s run to the AFC championship. The Jaguars have limited all four opponents to 20 points or less, while coming off last Sunday’s 31-12 rout of the Jets as 7 ½-point favorites. Running back Leonard Fournette will not play on Sunday as he is sidelined with a hamstring injury, as T.J. Yeldon will get the bulk of the carries this week after rushing for 52 yards and scoring a touchdown in Week 4.

The Chiefs have captured the last three matchups since 2010, including a 19-14 triumph at Arrowhead Stadium in 2016. Jacksonville has covered in four of its past five opportunities as a road underdog since the start of 2017, while Kansas City owns a 7-2 SU/ATS record in its previous nine regular season contests at home.

Best Bet: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 20

Falcons at Steelers (-3, 58) – 1:00 PM EST

Not many people (or any people) would have predicted these two perennial playoff squads would combine for two wins through the first four weeks. Both clubs are coming off home losses last week to AFC North opponents as Atlanta fell in the final seconds to Cincinnati, while Pittsburgh was tripped up by Baltimore.

The Falcons (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) are the walking definition of a team that should be 4-0. In spite of numerous injuries to its defense, Atlanta led in the fourth quarter in losses to Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Cincinnati, while quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown for nearly 800 yards and eight touchdowns in the last two losses. After the offense couldn’t score in the red zone against the Eagles, the Falcons have topped the 31-point mark in each of the past three games as each of those contests have sailed OVER the total.

The Steelers (1-2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) have represented the AFC North each of the last two seasons, but are sitting at the bottom of the division alongside the Browns through one month. Pittsburgh is missing running back Le’Veon Bell (literally and figuratively) as backup James Conner has been limited to 19 rushing yards or fewer in each of its two losses. The Steelers rallied to tie the Ravens last week at 14-14, but Baltimore held Pittsburgh scoreless in the second half as Mike Tomlin’s team has started 0-2 at home for the first time since 2013.

Pittsburgh has won each of the last two meetings with Atlanta, including a 27-20 victory at the Georgia Dome in 2014. The Falcons own a 3-1 SU/ATS record in their past four opportunities as a road underdog against AFC foes, while the Steelers have won five of their last six at Heinz Field against NFC opponents.

Best Bet: Falcons 31, Steelers 28

Vikings at Eagles (-3, 46 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

These two teams played for the NFC championship last season as Philadelphia dominated Minnesota in a runaway, 38-7 en route to the Eagles’ first Super Bowl title in franchise history. The two quarterbacks that started that day, Nick Foles and Case Keenum, will not start this time around with Carson Wentz back for Philadelphia and Keenum headed off for Denver. The key questions are if the Eagles can creep above the .500 mark and whether or not this is a do-or-die game for Minnesota.

To answer the first question, Philadelphia (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) is suffering from an early Super Bowl hangover after losing to Tampa Bay and Tennessee through the first month. The Eagles threw away a 17-3 advantage against the Titans and ultimately lost in the final seconds of overtime, 26-23 to drop to 0-2 on the road. Playing at home has been a different story for the Eagles, who are 2-0 at Lincoln Financial Field and 11-1 in Philadelphia since the start of last season.

The second question is a little more difficult to answer. Minnesota (1-2-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) began the season as one of the top choices to win the NFC and took care of San Francisco at home. However, the Vikings missed a last-second field goal in a tie with the Packers, then were shocked by winless Buffalo at home. The Vikings hung with the undefeated Rams last Thursday night, but ultimately lost 38-31. Only five teams in the NFC own winning records heading into Sunday, so Minnesota can still come back. However, this normally reliable defense has yielded 94 points in the past three weeks.

Best Bet: Eagles 23, Vikings 19

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (4-0-1 last week, 11-7-2 on season)
Ravens -3
Bills +3 ½
Jets -1
Eagles -3
Seahawks +7

Chris David (3-2 last week, 12-8 on season)
Bills +3 ½
Giants +7
Steelers -3
Vikings +3
Cardinals +4

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-1)
Panthers over Giants

Chris David (3-1)
Steelers over Falcons

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 3-1 this season)

UNDER 40 ½ - Cardinals at 49ers

Although Arizona is 0-4, the Cardinals have been very competitive the last two weeks in home losses to the Bears and Seahawks. The Cards scored a combined 31 points in those defeats, but limited their opponents to 36 points after allowing 34 to the Rams back in Week 2. Josh Rosen makes his second start for Arizona after throwing for 180 yards against Seattle, as the Cardinals have yet to score more than 17 points in a game. The 49ers continue to play without Jimmy Garoppolo, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. San Francisco lost a 29-27 shootout to Los Angeles last week, although two touchdowns were a pick-six and an 82-yard touchdown pass. Last season’s two meetings each finished UNDER the total, while Arizona is a perfect 4-0 to the UNDER.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Broncos came so close to handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season last Monday. However, Kansas City rallied back to win the fourth straight year in Denver. Now, the Broncos travel east on a short week to take on the struggling Jets. Under head coach Vance Joseph, the Broncos are 1-8 in their nine road games, while failing to cover a game in four opportunities this season. Denver has moved to a slight road favorite, while the Jets try to build on a 7-1 ATS mark as a home underdog in 2017.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Titans opened up as 3 ½-point favorites against the Bills this week in Buffalo, but that number has jumped to 5 ½ at most books. All three of Tennessee’s wins have come by three points each, including recent underdog triumphs over Jacksonville and Philadelphia. The Titans are 0-1 SU/ATS as a favorite this season, while going 0-3 SU/ATS in the underdog role. This is the lowest line the Bills have seen this season, as Buffalo tries to end a three-game SU/ATS home losing streak in the underdog role.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Rams look for a 5-0 start as Los Angeles leaves the state of California for the first time this season with a trip to Seattle. It’s odd to see the Seahawks listed as a touchdown underdog at CenturyLink Field, but the Rams have won eight of their last nine games away from the Coliseum. Last season, the Rams drilled the Seahawks in Seattle, 42-7, for their second win at CenturyLink Field in three seasons. The last time Seattle was a home underdog of more than four points came against Baltimore in 2011 as the Seahawks won, 22-17 in the season before Russell Wilson was drafted.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 5
October 6, 2018
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

Week 5

1) Baltimore -3 (1,014)
2) L.A. Rams -7 (873)
3) Tennessee -3.5 (811)
4) Arizona +4 (759)
5) Washington +6.5 (757)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 5 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Indianapolis (+10.5) 138 New England (-10.5) 240

Baltimore (-3) 1014 Cleveland (+3) 372

Jacksonville (+3) 682 Kansas City (-3) 605

Tennessee (-3.5) 811 Buffalo (+3.5) 299

N.Y. Giants (+7) 319 Carolina (-7) 525

Denver (+1) 712 N.Y. Jets (-1) 490

Atlanta (+3) 279 Pittsburgh (-3) 601

Green Bay (-1) 480 Detroit (+1) 654

Miami (+6.5) 695 Cincinnati (-6.5) 416

Oakland (+4.5) 512 L.A. Chargers (-4.5) 436

Arizona (+4) 759 San Francisco (-4) 202

Minnesota (+3) 607 Philadelphia (-3) 426

L.A. Rams (-7) 873 Seattle (+7) 382

Dallas (+3) 224 Houston (-3) 705

Washington (+6.5) 757 New Orleans (-6.5) 365


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 3-2 7-8 47%
4 3-2 10-10 50%

[Udog]

Essentials - Week 5
Tony Mejia

Sunday

Baltimore (-3/45.5) at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Browns are undefeated in Cleveland, something we haven’t been able to say about them entering a third home game since 2004. One of those games ended in a tie and they’re still looking up at most of the division, but progress is progress. One of the teams atop the AFC North are these Ravens, who have been among the NFL’s stingiest out of the gate, surrendering 16.2 while averaging over 30, giving them the conference’s largest point differential, second only to the Rams. Joe Flacco is averaging over 300 passing yards per game after tossing for 363 in last Sunday night’s win over the Steelers, looking rejuvenated by the addition of Robert Griffin III and Lamar Jackson.

Former Ravens backup Tyrod Taylor was expected to start this game opposite his ex-mates but lost his gig a couple weeks ago after being banged up by the Jets. Rookie Baker Mayfield took the reins, led a comeback win to end years of suffering and doesn’t figure to be handing the job back to Taylor, barring injury, any time soon. If not for a controversial call that took away what would’ve been a game-clinching fourth down out in Oakland, the Browns would be 2-0 on Mayfield’s watch. He’s got the locals excited, so Baltimore will look to keep the crowd from becoming a factor as they try to win a sixth straight game in this series. The Browns last beat the Ravens at home in 2013 and have won only two of the last 20 meetings against their divisional oppressors. Cleveland woke up to thunderstorms and may see rain be a factor all afternoon. The Ravens are relatively healthy and get CB Jimmy Smith back from suspension. The Browns have cleared WR Jarvis Landry, who has been dealing with a knee issue.

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3/49), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Significant drama has surfaced to make this juicy matchup even spicier, but weather is likely to play a huge role with thunderstorms potentially part of the equation all afternoon. Jaguars star corner Jalen Ramsey went to the well early on the off-field mind game work he attempts to put in before games begin, and it’s not like he’s run into many situations where he bites off more than he can chew. Tyreek Hill has averaged over 50 yards per game on touchdown grabs over his careers and is second in the NFL in yards per target, so he’ll test Ramsey vertically with his speed and might wind up playing decoy to open the middle of the field for tight end Travis Kelce, RB Kareem Hunt and fellow WR Sammy Watkins, who has been cleared to play after aggravating a hamstring injury last week.

Jacksonville RB Leonard Fournette wasn’t as fortunate, unable to return from the injury he reaggravated last week in a 31-12 rout of the Jets. T.J. Yeldon has proven to be a capable replacement and polarizing QB Blake Bortles has stepped up when he’s had to in his absence, putting together his best outings in games without the franchise back. This will be the team’s first road game since a 20-15 Week 1 win at the Giants. They were 4-4 SU and ATS last season but won in Pittsburgh in the playoffs and then covered in New England, so they’ve shown up on the road when it’s mattered most. Jacksonville’s defense is surrendering an NFL-low 14 points per game while Kansas City is averaging a league-high 36.25 points, so this is going to be a tremendous battle of wills. Chiefs DE Dee Ford, the team’s top pass-rusher was listed as questionable, while safety Eric Berry is doubtful.

Tennessee (-5.5/40) at Buffalo, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Titans are one of the NFL’s surprise 3-1 teams, sporting a point differential of just 75-73 and utilizing some smoke and mirrors to produce their success since they’ve managed to overcome Marcus Mariota being well below 100 percent due to an elbow injury that has prevented him from slinging it downfield effectively, turning him into a game manager. The defense has played well enough to justify that strategy but must overcome the absence of starting safety Kenny Vaccaro (elbow) and LB Wesley Woodyard (shoulder). The combination of new head coach Mike Vrabel and veteran coordinator Dean Pees should spell trouble for rookie QB Josh Allen, but it remains to be seen whether the loss of key personnel can be overcome on the road.

Allen crashed and burned after a dominant performance against the Vikings, losing in Green Bay 22-0 in a performance where he managed a QBR of 5.1, the third-worst showing in the NFL so far. Backup Nathan Peterman’s Week 1 disaster remains the lowlight, so the rookie appears to be in no danger of losing the gig he wrestled away. Allen threw for one score and was picked off twice in a 31-20 loss to the Chargers in his only home game to date and will have RB LeSean McCoy, WR Kelvin Benjamin and TE Charles Clay available to him after all dealt with injuries throughout September. Safeties Micah Hyde (groin) and Rafael Bush (shoulder) are each nursing injuries that have them listed as questionable, so Buffalo may have to overcome a vulnerable secondary to pull off an upset here. Rain is likely to be part of the equation, so this one could get sloppy.

N.Y. Giants at Carolina (-6.5/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Cam Newton and the Panthers were off last weekend, so they’ll look to benefit from an early break on their bodies against a Giants team that underachieved significantly in September and arrives in Charlotte banged up. Offensive line help arrived for Carolina in the form of newly acquired tackle Marshall Newhouse and the return of guard Trai Turner from concussion protocol, so the team is optimistic that it is in the best shape up front than it has been since losing tackle Daryl Williams at the onset of training camp.

New York’s offensive line issues have been well-documented, compounded this season by the loss of center Jon Halapaio to an ankle injury. Eli Manning doesn’t need any help performing below expectations, but he’s certainly gotten it from a unit that has largely been pushed around. Odell Beckham, Jr. and rookie Saquon Barkley have big-play ability but haven’t gotten enough chances due to the mess up front and under center. The Giants defense played well despite the absence of top pass-rusher Olivier Vernon, but the bottom fell out last week against Alvin Kamara and the Saints in the fourth-quarter of a 33-18 loss. Vernon remains out against the Panthers, but LB Connor Barwin and CB Eli Apple are healthy enough to do battle against an offense likely to ride the legs of Newton and Christian McCaffrey, who can of course burn you via the short passing game. Weather issues aren’t expected here.

Denver (PK/42.5) at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Broncos have been a dreadful road team of late, losing 10 of 11 and failing to cover in any of those setbacks, which includes a 27-14 in their only regular-season team outside Denver thus far, a 27-14 loss in Baltimore. They’ll be out of their time zone, which is worth remembering since they’ve also dropped their last six “early” games under Vance Joseph, whose seat is getting awfully warm. He’ll have to overcome a short-week situation here too, coming off a disappointing 27-23 loss to the Chiefs at Mile-High. QB Case Keenum’s honeymoon is over too, a reminder of how fickle the NFL can be since this team opened 2-0 after divisional home wins against the Seahawks and Raiders.

The Jets are hoping to reverse a recent lack of success against a Broncos team they haven’t beaten since 2010 after suffering a 23-0 loss in Denver last season. This is only the third meeting between these teams at Met Life Stadium and the first since 2002, when starting QB Sam Darnold was all of five. The rookie has found life difficult following an exciting Monday night debut Detroit, failing to produce more than 17 points in losses to the Dolphins, Browns and Jaguars. Von Miller and Co. figure to get after him, so it’s a plus that preferred target Quincy Enunwa will play despite a hip issue. The Jets will have corner Morris Claiborne out there too, but will be without fellow starter Trumaine Johnson and list safety Marcus Maye as a game-time decision.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-3/58), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Only the Bucs and Raiders have given up more points per game than the depleted Falcons, who have seen their season sabotaged by injuries on that side of the ball and a schedule that has offered no sympathy in the form of a reprieve. After losing two starters in a season-opening loss in Philly, the Falcons have been carved up by Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Andy Dalton at home in their dome. The Steelers are up next, and even though Le’Veon Bell remains away, the Steelers still have plenty of weapons to inflict damage with. Vic Beasley will try to play through an ankle injury, but DE Derrick Shelby and corner Justin Bethel join DT Grady Jarrett , LB Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen as observers. DE Takkarist McKinley was disruptive in his return last week, so Atlanta’s hope is that he and Beasley will be able to generate enough pressure that the team doesn’t have to blitz and leave itself vulnerable to Ben Roethlisberger’s arm and vision.

Antonio Brown has complained about not getting the ball enough downfield, so look for he and Juju Smith-Schuster to try and work deeper routes against a compromised group. The Falcons have surrendered an average of 37 points in their last three losses, while Pittsburgh was shut down last week, scoring just 14 against Baltimore. The Steelers also lost a 42-37 shootout against Kansas City in the home opener, so they’ll be looking to snap a run of seven straight games where they’ve failed to win and cover the spread, a stretch that dates back to Nov. 16 of last season. Their last outright win came in the 2017 regular season finale against the Browns last New Year’s Eve. The ‘over’ has prevailed in seven of the last nine at Heinz Field and three of the four games both teams have played this season, so it’s not surprising to see this as the highest-scoring total of the day by far.

Green Bay (PK/51) at Detroit, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Lions have had a favorable schedule, playing a Jets team starting a rookie QB, a young 49ers team riddled with injures and the disjointed Cowboys. They lost to all three but somehow managed to destroy the Patriots, making New England look as bad as we’ve seen them over the past few years. The Lions are a riddle as they greet the Packers for their NFC North opener. They’ve got talent across the board but tend to be their own worst enemy. It won’t help matters that top pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah won’t be around to try and harass Aaron Rodgers, who has settled in despite playing through a sore knee and has managed despite an inability to move as fluidly as he’s accustomed to.

The Lions won’t have corner Quandre Diggs or guard T.J. Lang either, which definitely makes them vulnerable against a Packers defense that comes off blanking Buffalo but is looking for their first road victory of the season. WR Davante Adams has been cleared to play and should be a factor, but Randall Cobb won’t be able to play through a hamstring issue and Geronimo Allison will be a game-time decision after not practicing Saturday since he’s in concussion protocol. Rookie corner Jaire Alexander, who has quickly emerged as one of the NFL’s top newcomers, will attempt to play through a groin issue and is someone else whose availability must be monitored. It wouldn’t be surprising to see young RBs Kerryon Johnson and Aaron Jones play huge roles here, which could impact the over run these teams are on against one another, having topped the posted total in five straight. The Lions are looking for their third consecutive win over Green Bay, something that hasn’t occurred in this one-sided series since 1991.

Miami at Cincinnati (-6/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Who had this one as a battle of division leaders when the season started? The Dolphins failed miserably in their attempt to put their foot on New England’s throat last week and now hit the road again looking for better results against resurgent Cincinnati. Dalton is playing the best football of his career, while counterpart Ryan Tannehill comes off the second-worst showing from a QB this season in last week’s loss. Miami has been able to hit big plays via the passing games in spurts thus far but seeks out consistency and more involvement for RB Kenyan Drake, who was expected to play a much larger role than he has to date, losing carries to veteran Frank Gore last week. The offense will be forced to deal with a Bengals defense that should be rejuvenated by the return of emotional leader Vontaze Burfict, who has served his four-game suspension.

The Bengals also get back top RB Joe Mixon, who missed time with a knee injury but is back at the right time since Giovani Bernard was injured last week. TE Tyler Eifert was lost for the season in Atlanta and speedster John Ross aggravated a knee injury that will keep him out this week, so other pieces will have to step up around A.J. Green and emerging fellow wideout Tyler Boyd. Miami will be missing Cameron Wake off its defensive front and may not have back DE Andre Branch back either. WR DeVante Parker missed last week’s game with a quad issue and is also likely to be a game-time decision as the Dolphins continue to be riddled with injuries throughout all of their position groups.

Oakland at L.A. Chargers (-5/52.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Jon Gruden picked up his first victory since returning to the sideline courtesy of a Derek Carr-commanded comeback against Cleveland last week, but anyone who watched that game saw how close the Raiders came to slipping to 0-4. We’ll see if returning from the brink invigorates this group, especially since x-factor Amari Cooper warmed up down the stretch alongside TE Jared Cook as the offense opened up. With the Chargers still missing Joey Bosa, Carr should have time to inflict damage, although he will have to deal with DE Corey Liuget, who is returning from suspension and offers an immediate upgrade from what L.A. has been featuring up front.

Philip Rivers’ protection is up in the air since tackle Russell Okung hasn’t practiced and is questionable with a groin injury. With fellow tackle Joe Barksdale still out, the Chargers would love to see Okung out there to keep a Raiders pass rush that has been non-existent from finding life. This is a swing game for L.A. which doesn’t enjoy much of a homefield advantage in Carson and will likely have to deal with a large contingent of Raiders fans. A win puts them over .500 and firmly on the road to playoff contention, while a loss drags them back with the also-rans in the AFC West, so we’ll get to see whether this group has some killer instinct to them. The Chargers have rolled to wins in 21 of the last 29 games against Oakland.

Arizona at San Francisco (-3.5/40), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: - Young quarterbacks take center stage in this battle of two of the NFL’s worst teams, a 49ers squad that lost Jimmy Garoppolo for the season and a Cards squad that has gotten off to a nightmare start under first-year head coach Steve Wilks. Arizona is winless and already had to deviate from the original plan of letting rookie Josh Rosen watch and learn from veteran Sam Bradford. As the only 0-4 team in the NFL, Arizona is unquestionably the league’s disappointment, averaging just over nine points per game. Rosen did pick up the team’s level, which led to last week’s decent showing in a 20-17 loss to Seattle.

The Niners got a solid showing from backup QB C.J. Beathard in last week’s 29-27 loss to the Rams but they were behind most of the afternoon and saw multiple offensive linemen injured. That should give you pause if you’re looking to fade the lone winless team on sight. Center Weston Richburg, tackle Joe Staley and first-round pick Mike McGlinchey are dealing with knee injuries that may keep all out of this one, though Staley is the least likely to play and the rookie should suit up. Running back Matt Breida has been upgraded to probable despite concerns over his shoulder, but promising young WR Dante Pettis is out against and speedster Marquise Goodwin is questionable. Safety Jimmie Ward’s status is similarly in doubt due to a hamstring issue, but Richard Sherman’s calf ailment has healed sufficiently for him to play. Can the Cardinals take advantage of all the injuries? Rosen will have Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) in the mix and has seen RB David Johnson improve every week as the rust has been worked off.

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3/47), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: This rematch of last year’s lopsided NFC Championship features two different starting quarterbacks than the ones who took the field in January. Former ‘Skin Kirk Cousins is very familiar with the Eagles but lost both times he ran into last year’s group following a season sweep in ’16. He’s had an up-and-down start to his Vikings tenure, so all eyes will be on how he handles leading a new group in a hostile atmosphere he knows well. Offensive line has been a major obstacle for the Vikes, but he should have every starter in place for this test against a talented Eagles front seven. Dalvin Cook has been dealing with a hamstring issue all season and is doubtful to be able to be out there. Latavius Murray should get the bulk of the carries as a result, but hasn’t been as productive as the second-year back out of FSU, which means we’ll likely see Minnesota lean on Cousins and the aerial attack more.

The Eagles have been involved in one tight game after another. All four September contests were decided by six points or fewer, so this is a big swing game for Philly when you consider that their level of competition hasn’t exactly been the cream of the crop. Fletcher Cox has been upgraded to probable despite ankle soreness but Halti Ngata is questionable and pass-rusher Derek Barnett is listed as doubtful, so the Eagles may be thin on numbers in an area that’s typically a strength. Not having versatile backs Darren Sproles (out) and Corey Clement (questionable) available hasn’t helped Carson Wentz develop much of a rhythm, but this will be the healthiest that top target Alshon Jeffery feels entering a game this season. The Eagles are perfect at home thus far and have won 11 of 12 straight up at Lincoln Financial Field. The under is 6-1 in Philly’s last seven home games, including wins over Atlanta and Indianapolis this season where opponents have averaged just 14 points.

L.A. Rams (-7.5/50) at Seattle, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: There’s been little to slow down the Rams thus far, but Mother Nature is about take her shot at ending L.A.’s run of 30-plus scoring games that has seen them improve on their tally from the week prior. After a 38-31 win two Thursdays ago to open Week 4, L.A. has had plenty of time to prepare for the new-look Seahawks defense as they attempt to put the clamps on the NFC West by moving four games up on everyone in the division when you include the tiebreaker they would hold.

With apologies to Seahawks defenders like UCF alums Shaquem and Shaquil Griffin, the cold wet rain that is expected to fall in Seattle may provide a bigger assist than anything else, especially since LB K.J. Wright is doubtful to return from the knee injury that has kept him out the past few weeks. Safety Earl Thomas was lost for the season, LB Mychal Kendrick was solely a temporary band-aid, already serving an indefinite suspension. Pass-rushers Frank Clark and Rasheem Green are questionable, while speedy Dion Jordan should play for a depleted group that will have to keep Todd Gurley from getting going since he’s taken a backseat to the Jared Goff-led passing game of late. The Rams hung a 42-7 beating on the Seahawks at CenturyLInk Field last season after being held to just 10 points in their lowest-scoring performance of the season at home on an early October day just like this one. If history repeats itself, I’d expect weather to play a large role. The Seahawks will have Chris Carson in the mix, so look for them to try to control possession regardless of the elements. L.A. comes in healthier than most of the NFL’s teams, though kicker Greg Zuerlein remains out.

Dallas at Houston (-3/45), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC: Although neither one of the Lone Star state’s teams has stood out this season, the Cowboys and Texans squaring off makes for a compelling Sunday night matchup due to the desperation involved. Houston fortunate last week, blowing a second-half lead in Indianapolis and putting itself in jeopardy of an OT loss -- then a tie – before Colts head coach Frank Reich graciously lost on a gamble that allowed them emerge with their first victory of the season. Back home after disappointing in the opener with a loss to the Giants, look for Deshaun Watson to have finally worked enough the rust off to trust in this game against a depleted Cowboys squad that has managed to open 2-2 despite suspect offensive line play, a struggling passing game and the absence of defensive catalyst Sean Lee. Avoiding a 1-4 start should have Bill O’Brien pulling out all the stops in front of what should be a wild crowd set to drown out Dallas fans. The Texans will have WRs Will Fuller and Keke Coutee available to help offset the absence of top RB Lamar Miller, who is considered doubtful to play. Alfred Blue will get the bulk of the carries, but expect Watson and the passing game to handle the bulk of the load offensively.

The Cowboys got out of Detroit with a win thanks to a last-second field goal and pieced together a sharper-looking offense than we’ve seen from them to date. Ezekiel Elliott (knee) and Tavon Austin (shoulder) will both be in the mix to try and help Dak Prescott build on the success and avoid Houston’s feared pass rushers by getting the ball out quickly and moving the pocket. A revamped offensive line is a major question mark and center Travis Frederick isn’t coming back anytime soon after landing on IR last night, so escaping H-Town with a win and a record above .500 would be an immense accomplishment that will keep the naysayers from sprinkling dirt on beleaguered head coach Jason Garrett for at least another week.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at DET 01:00 PM
DET -1.0
O 50.0

ATL at PIT 01:00 PM
PIT -3.5
O 57.0

BAL at CLE 01:00 PM
U 44.5

JAC at KC 01:00 PM
KC -3.0
O 48.0

DEN at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +1.0

MIA at CIN 01:00 PM
CIN -6.5
U 47.5

TEN at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF +5.5
U 39.0

NYG at CAR 01:00 PM
NYG +7.0
O 43.5



*********************

LATE GAMES AND SUNDAY NIGHT PICK UP LATER......GOOD LUCK !!


*****************************************

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


*****************************

Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total................2-2-0.........50.00%.....-1.00

********************

Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals......................1 - 1...................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00