Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Interesting trends for Week 8 in the NFL:

— Steelers are 1-5 in last six games as a divisional home favorite.

— Eagles are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a favorite.

— Saints covered five of their last six games.

— Bengals covered six of their last nine games.

— Colts covered their last five pre-bye games.

— Jaguars are 4-19 in last 23 games vs NFC teams.


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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…..

13) Cam Newton’s Sunday in Philadelphia:
Quarters 1-3: 9-of-17, 68 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, not much of anything
4th quarter: 16-22, 201 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs— He looked like Dan Fouts

Once he got hot, the Panthers were unstoppable, but it was like someone flipped the on-switch and he started playing better.

12) Denver Broncos released backup QB Chad Kelly after he was arrested on trespassing charges Monday night. He was forcibly removed from the players’ Halloween party before he entered another person’s home where he didn’t belong.

11) There are whispers coming out of Ohio that at this time next year, Urban Meyer could be coaching the Cleveland Browns. We’ll see about that; not sure how Meyer would do dealing with the losing NFL coaches do, much more than college coaches.

10) College basketball starts November 6; on Opening Night, 52 D-I teams play a non-D-I opponent, which is embarrassing. Last year, D-I teams went 453-11 against non-D-I teams.

9) Darius Bazley is a young man who signed to play basketball at Syracuse this winter, but he won’t do that or play in the G-League, instead he is going to train on his own— he has signed an endorsement contract with New Balance, which will play him at least $1M.

Bazley will also intern at the company’s marketing, digital, footwear and apparel departments from January to March. Chances are he will go from April 2018 to July 2019 without playing in a competitive basketball game. Not sure how that is a good idea for his development as a player, but good luck to him.

8) Raiders supposedly turned down a 2nd round pick from the Eagles for Amari Cooper, before dealing him to the Cowboys Monday; Jon Gruden talked to the team Wednesday about the trade, but that seems kind of late, no? The trade was Monday.

7) Los Angeles Angels hired former Tiger skipper Brad Ausmus as their next manager.

6) This is just the third World Series where all four starting pitchers in Games 1-2 were lefty:

1963 – Koufax vs Ford, Podres vs Downing
1973 – Matlack vs Holtzman, Koosman vs Blue
2018 – Kershaw vs Sale, Ryu vs Price

5) James Harden left Houston’s 100-89 loss in Utah Wednesday with a hamstring issue that he says “isn’t serious). Harden missed seven games LY with a similar injury.

4) Nets 102, Cavaliers 86— Cleveland coach Tyrone Lue coached in the NBA Finals the last two years, but the Cavs are 0-4 already and Lue might get fired before Christmas. Losing to the Nets by 16 at home isn’t a good sign.

3) Red Sox 4, Dodgers 2— None of LA’s top four home run hitters have started a game in this WS yet, because they’re all lefty and God forbid a lefty hitter face a lefty pitcher.

2) Rams signed WR Austin Proehl to the practice squad, which sounds like an obscure note, except if you’re a Ram fan, the Phoehl name is royalty— Austin’s dad Ricky Proehl caught the game-winning TD pass in the 2000 NFC title game the year the Rams won the Super Bowl, and he also caught a TD pass in the Super Bowl two years later.

1) According to Psychology Living magazine, being sarcastic on a regular basis can add up to three years to your life, which means you’re stuck with me for three more years than you thought you were. Sarcasm is extremely healthy for the mind. Ha!!!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday. October 25

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MIAMI (4 - 3) at HOUSTON (4 - 3) - 10/25/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NFL

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Thursday. October 25

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 6-10-2 ATS in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games
Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston

Houston Texans
Houston is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami


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NFL
Dunkel

Week 8


Thursday October 25, 2018

Miami @ Houston

Game 103-104
October 25, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
121.454
Houston
136.820
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 15 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 7
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-7); Under

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8


Thursday

Dolphins (4-3) @ Texans (4-3)— Miami lost three of last four games after a 3-0 start; they’re 1-2 on road (under 3-0), losing 38-7 in Foxboro, 27-17 at Cincy— under Gase, Dolphins are 5-11 as road underdogs. Texans won their last four games after an 0-3 start; Houston is 2-1 at home, but 0-3 vs spread; under O’Brien, Texans are 14-10-1 as home favorites, but 2-6 in last eight tries. Houston won seven of eight series games, winning all four played here, by 2-3-1-20 points. AFC East underdogs are 5-9 vs spread outside the division; AFC South teams are 6-12 outside the division, 3-7 if favored. Osweiler is expected to start 3rd straight game (1-1) for Miami, with Tannehill still out. Under is 5-2 in Houston games this season.


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(Odds as of Tuesday)

Thursday, Oct. 25

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-7.5, 44.5)

It's already time for the Brock Osweiler revenge game? 'Brocktober' rolls on and he'll face his former team in Houston. OK, it's not exactly Joe Montana returning to face the 49ers as a member of the Chiefs in 1994, but anyway. This line opened anywhere from -7 to -7 1/2 depending on the shop. Southpoint and Treasure Island are among the books you can go if you really like the Texans and don't want to lay the hook, but act quickly.


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Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 25

MIAMI at HOUSTON (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Texans 2-10 last 12 overall vs. line, and no covers last five at home.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.


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NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Chiefs 7-0 ATS
2. Lions 5-1 ATS
3. Browns 5-2 ATS
t4. Saints 4-2 ATS
t4. Redskins 4-2 ATS
6. Vikings 4-2-1 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t29. Texans 2-5 ATS
t29. Falcons 2-5 ATS
t29. Eagles 2-5 ATS
t29. 49ers 2-5 ATS
t26. Packers 2-4 ATS
t26. Buccaneers 2-4 ATS
t26. Raiders 2-4 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Dolphins at Texans
October 25, 2018
By Tony Mejia

Miami at Houston (-7.5, 44), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

On a Thursday night less than 14 months ago, Deshaun Watson was unleashed. The rookie who won a national title at Clemson made his first start in Cincinnati a few weeks earlier than most expected he would. The Texans offensive line was a disaster and head coach Bill O’Brien thought his elusiveness gave his team their best chance to win.

Although most of his throws were off and he finished with only 125 passing yards, Watson’s second-quarter 49-yard run that ended up doubling as the game’s only touchdown dropped jaws and opened eyes, ultimately serving as the beginning of a fun six-week rollercoaster ride as the Texans’ starter.

Watson would tear his ACL just before Week 9, but over his five starts, Houston averaged 37 points per game. Expectations that he’d be able to hit the ground running again this season didn’t account for everything moving too fast for him early this season. He physically looked a step slow but his feel for the game appeared to be much further behind. The second-year starter appeared to be thinking out there, which is something you simply can’t get away with at this level.

Rock bottom for the Texans (4-3 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) remains becoming the Giants’ first and only victim thus far this season despite Watson’s 385 passing yards, but the team has since won four straight and has a chance to reach the season’s halfway point with a winning record and sole possession of the AFC South if they hold serve against the Dolphins (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) here. Houston’s defense has done the heavy lifting during this run, but Watson has looked increasingly more comfortable despite continuing to get stung by the turnover bug.

It’s helped that he’s gotten back talent like RB Lamar Miller and seen key offensive players that came into the season banged up get healthier, but it definitely also feels like Watson and his group can take their game to another level. Since they open November in Denver before a well-placed bye week, these next two games are going to decide a lot for Houston, which can really set itself up nicely for the stretch run with a pair of victories over slumping squads. Beating the Broncos at Mile High is never easy, but former Texans starting QB Case Keenum has had his issues and head coach Vance Joseph’s tenure is on the rocks despite a rout of Arizona in last week’s Thursday night game.

Before visiting Keenum, Houston will cross paths with another of its ex-quarterbacks with Brock Osweiler having temporarily emerged as the man in Miami. With Ryan Tannehill out for at least another week due to a shoulder sprain, Osweiler will make his third start and will be looking for his third straight 300-yard passing game. Head coach Adam Gase hasn’t deviated from his pass-happy offense despite having the backup in place, so Osweiler has completed 50 of 75 passes for over 700 yards over the past two weeks, splitting games against the Bears and Lions.

Although the stats are gaudy, receiver have doen the bulk of the work, getting upfield after taking short passes from Osweiler, who isn’t exactly known for stretching the field. He’s been more than serviceable however, but must now prove he can get it done in a road atmosphere, albeit one he’s very familiar with. Osweiler signed a lucrative four-year, $72 million deal in 2016 and would’ve probably been Houston’s starter in this one had they not quickly given up on him after a 16-interception season that got him benched and ultimately traded to Cleveland. Texans fans will boo him lustily.

Dolphins fans will watch him while shielding their eyes in fear, hoping he’s able to avoid the turnover bug against a defense that has really picked it up of late, surrendering an average of 12 points in their last three wins. Houston’s victims in those games, the Cowboys, Bills and Jaguars, have all been struggling offensively, but it is a credit to the Texans that they’ve played a role in that. They bailed out the offense with a pick-six against Buffalo and come into this one reasonably healthy, especially by their standards. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are both in the mix and appear fresh.

The same can’t be said for the Dolphins, as you’ll read below in the TNF Injury report. Weather isn’t a factor here since NRG Stadium has a retractable roof and it’s expected to be a mild 65-degree night. The Texans are favored but haven’t fared well in the role, covering in only one of the five games they’ve been favored to win this season. Houston is 0-3 as a home favorite this season and dropped their last game as home ‘chalk’ in 2017. It is 2-8 over its last 10 home games as a favorite of seven or more points. Meanwhile, Miami is 1-7 against the number in their last eight road games and have dropped their last two by double-digits after winning at the Jets in Week 2.


Miami Dolphins
Season win total: 6.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win AFC East: 6/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 25/1 to 45/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 100/1

Houston Texans
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win AFC South: 2/1 to 4/5
Odds to win AFC: 23/1 to 11/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 25/1

LINE MOVEMENT

One glimpse at the numbers above can tell you these are teams headed in opposite directions, at least in terms of perception. The Texans saw their odds to win their division, conference and the Super Bowl all improve, while Miami's numbers dipped following its home loss to Detroit.

The Dolphins are back to the 10/1 that they opened the season at to win the AFC East even though the Patriots have looked vulnerable. Houston opened the season 2-to-1 to win the AFC South, just behind Jacksonville (7/4) and were available at that number last week before taking sole possession of the division lead. That might have been the best number we'll see for them if the Texans take care of business before their bye.

As far as this matchup is concerned, this line was off when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week and opened at -7 before climbing back up to where it currently resides at -7.5. There are some -7 (-120) figures out there and money on Miami could see this get to -7 by kickoff. Total numbers are available below.

Houston opened at -320 on the money line and is available at -340/-350 at the moment. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on an the Dolphins win will get you +290 to +310 depending on the shop.


INJURY CONCERNS

Losing Tannehill might be the biggest problem the Dolphins have faced, but far from the only one. Injuries have claimed guard Josh Sitton and center Daniel Kilgore, while electric WR Albert Wilson landed on IR with an awful hip injury suffered against the Lions and fellow top receiving threat Kenny Stills suffered a groin injury that will keep him out here.

Osweiler will have to work with former first-round pick DeVante Parker, who has feuding with Miami management and was seemingly on the way out after being inactive. Leonte Caroo was promoted from the practice squad. Those two join Danny Amendola and Jakeem Grant as Osweiler’s receiving corps in addition to tight ends Nick O’Leary and A.J. Derby. Mike Gesicki is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. Amendola and RB Kenyan Drake were limited with shoulder injuries this week, so Osweiler hasn’t gotten in much practice time.

The Texans have their best players available, but have had their own injury headaches. Safety Andre Hal will be missing in addition to corners Aaron Colvin and Shareece Wright, which is key since numbers are thin with Kayvon Webster (quad) and Kevin Johnson (concussion) already on IR. LB Brian Peters (ankle) is also out. The offense won’t have guard Zach Fulton (ankle) up front and will be missing WR Keke Coutee (hamstring) and TE Ryan Griffin (illness) from Watson’s arsenal of playmakers. University of Miami product and former Dolphin Lamar Miller looked great last week, racking up 100 yards on 22 carries.


TOTAL TALK

Thursday’s total opened at 45 ½ and the number is sitting at 44 as of Thursday morning.

Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com provided his thoughts on this matchup:

"Looking at the form and statistics for both clubs, I agree with the downward movement and would expect it drop further. The Texans defense has looked sharp the last three weeks, surrendering just 12 points per game albeit against three low-scoring offenses. A great effort should be expected in this spot again, knowing the Dolphins are ranked 24th in scoring offense (21.6 PPG) and that number dips to 14.7 PPG on the road.

"Another reason to lean low is based on what we’ve seen this season from Houston’s offense. The offensive line is a mess and Watson has taken way too many hits," explained David. "In six starts last season, Houston averaged 34.6 PPG and that number is down to 22.1 PPG in seven games this fall. A lot of folks were quick to anoint Watson as the next big-thing but if he can’t move the ball against a suspect Miami defense, then I would expect the critics to finally reverse their premature praise."

The ‘over’ has cashed cash in the last four Thursday night matchups and the high side is 5-2 on the season in this spot. Bettors pressing their bets with first-half wagers have seen the ‘over’ go 5-2 in these games as well. Miami's defense is surrendering 25.3 points and 403.5 yards per game.

"If you’re hesitant to jump in early, keep your live betting options open, especially for the second-half," said David. "The Dolphins have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 on the road and they’re only averaging 3.3 PPG as visitors in the final 30 minutes."

The Dolphins pasted the Texans 44-26 in the last meeting. The ‘over’ (46) was never in doubt and almost cashed at halftime with Miami building a 41-0 lead.


ALL-TIME MEETINGS (Houston 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS last 8; UNDER 4-3-1)

10/25/15 Miami 44-26 vs. Houston (MIA -4.5, 44.5)
9/9/12 Houston 30-10 at Miami (HOU -13.5, 41.5)
9/18/11 Houston 23-13 vs. Miami (HOU -3, 47.5)
12/27/09 Houston 27-20 at Miami (HOU +2, 47)
10/12/08 Houston 29-28 vs. Miami (MIA +3, 44.5)
10/7/07 Houston 22-19 vs. Miami (MIA +5.5, 43.5)
10/1/06 Houston 17-15 vs. Miami (HOU +4, 40)
9/7/03 Houston 21-20 at Miami (HOU +14, 34.5)


PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the first challenge being successful because most refs are terrible and will take a shot that there is a defense or special teams TD for a solid return. I'd also recommend Lamar Miller in DFS.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Texans -220, Dolphins +180)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Texans -260, Dolphins +220)
Team to score first: (Texans -160, Dolphins +140)
Team to score last: (Texans -170, Dolphins +150)
Team to challenge first: (Texans -110, Dolphins -110)
First score: (Touchdown -145, FG/Safety +125)
First turnover: (None +800, Fumble +170, INT -220)
Highest scoring half: 1st -115, 2nd + OT -105)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over (+110, Under -135)
Team with longest TD scored: (Texans -160, Dolphins +140)
2-point conversion action: (Successful +340, No conversion -425)
4th down conversion action: (Successful -200, No conversion +170)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)
Will there be a kickoff return touchdown?: (Yes +1600, No -3300)
Will there be a punt return touchdown?: (Yes +1200, No -2000)
Will there be overtime?: (Yes +1000, No -1500)
Will the game end in a tie: (Yes +4000, No -15000)
Will the first coach's challenge be successful: Yes -120, No +100
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -220, No +180)


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 currently has the Texans liisted as a 1.5-point road favorite in that aforementioned game at the Broncos. The Dolphins will be back home to host the Jets on Sunday. No line was listed.

[StarDust Bum]

Eagles vs. Jaguars
October 25, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Preview – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

We get another early game in London this week, as the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. This matchup looked great before the season began, as the Eagles are defending Super Bowl champs, while the Jaguars made the AFC Championship Game, but right now both teams are struggling. Both teams are 3-4 and each team badly needs a win. Let’s look at this matchup on Sunday on NFL Network and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Sunday, October 28, 2018, 9:30 a.m. ET
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Eagles -3 (-120), O/U 42
Eagles vs. Jaguars TV Coverage: NFL Network

The Eagles are slight favorites in this neutral site contest in London on Sunday that has an early start time of 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Philadelphia has been up and down this season, but Carson Wentz is starting to look like the player he was before getting injured last season and the Eagles are still very much alive in the NFC East. Philadelphia hasn’t been bad this season, but they haven’t been pulling out the wins they did a year ago. The Eagles have lost four games this season, with all four coming by less than six points.

The Jaguars have lost three straight games and there are reports of dissention in the locker room. The defense is fed up with Blake Bortles turning the ball over. It got so bad last week that Bortles was pulled in favor of backup Cody Kessler. The Jacksonville defense has not played nearly as well as they did a year ago, as they are giving up almost 21 points per game.

The Eagles are scoring about 22 points per game and giving up just under 20 per contest. They are 2-5 ATS, with four games going under and three going over. The Jaguars are scoring 16.6 points per game and giving up just under 21 points per contest. They are 3-4 ATS, with three games going over and four going under the total.

Matchup to Watch

If the Jaguars are going to win this game they have to win it on defense. That means they have to win the matchup up front with Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell going against Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. The Jaguars are 20th in the NFL with 15 sacks this season. They are way behind last year’s pace when they had 55. Part of the problem has been that Jacksonville has been playing from behind and opposing teams can run the ball.

The Jaguars could have success this week against a banged up Johnson and Peters. Johnson has been dealing with an ankle sprain, while Peters has been playing through a torn bicep and quad injury. If the Jaguars can get pressure they can force turnovers. Wentz has fumbled in every game this season and in his 34 career starts he has 29 fumbles.

Key Stats

The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Looking at the total, the Under is 7-3 in the Eagles last 10 games on grass. The Over is 5-2 in the Jaguars last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Eagles vs. Jaguars Picks

If Bortles was playing better I would definitely go with the Jaguars, as I think there is value on Jacksonville plus the points. The problem is that I don’t trust Bortles. I think there is more value on the total. The Eagles are just not the same offense they were a year ago, as they have not been able to run the ball effectively and take the pressure off Wentz. The Jacksonville offense has been dreadful without Leonard Fournette who won’t play this week. I think this will be a close, defensive battle, so I will go under the total.

Eagles vs. Jaguars Pick: Under 42 at BetDSI
Eagles vs. Jaguars Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Jaguars 17

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Thursday's Top Wager
October 25, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Preview – Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are favored at home on Thursday night, as they host the Miami Dolphins on FOX. The Dolphins come into this game at 4-3, but they are starting backup quarterback Brock Osweiler, while the Texans are 4-3 and leading the AFC South. The Texans are very familiar with Osweiler, as he started 14 games for Houston in 2016. Let’s look at this matchup on Thursday on FOX and NFL Network and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Thursday, October 25, 2018, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Texans -7.5, O/U 44.5
Dolphins vs. Texans TV Coverage: FOX and NFL Network

The focus on Thursday night will be on Osweiler as he faces his former team. Osweiler and Houston head coach Bill O’Brien did not get along well when Osweiler was in Houston a couple of years ago and the Texans traded Osweiler to Cleveland. O’Brien said this week to the media that he likes what he has seen from Osweiler the past two games. "Playing really well right now," O'Brien said of Osweiler. "I think he's thrown for 600-plus yards in the last two games. He has a great history with Adam Gase. They're doing a great job with him.”

O’Brien said that his knowledge of Osweiler means little for this game on Thursday. "I think it's a different system, different players around him, so I don't think that's important," O'Brien said, "He's got a lot of different types of players than what we had, just different skill sets than what we had here, different personnel groupings. So I don't think that means anything." Osweiler has thrown for 629 yards with six TDs and just two interceptions the last two games. Osweiler could have a tough time on Thursday, as Miami will be without two of their top receivers, as Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills are out.

The Texans are dealing with injuries as well, as wide receiver Keke Coutee is out and quarterback Deshaun Watson is still not 100%. Watson has not played that well this season, as he has thrown seven interceptions and he has fumbled seven times. Houston will look to running back Lamar Miller to have another solid game after he rushed for 100 yards last week.

Matchup to Watch

If the Dolphins are to have any chance in this game they have to avoid mistakes and that means giving Osweiler time to throw and not giving up sacks and forcing Osweiler into bad situations. The Miami offensive line has to keep J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney from wreaking havoc. "They're horrible to go up against," Miami head coach Adam Gase said of Watt and Clowney. "When you have both of those guys on the edges, it makes it hard to do anything, running or passing." Clowney had seven total tackles, two sacks, four quarterback hits, two tackles for loss and a fumble recovery last week against Jacksonville.

Key Stats

The Dolphins are 4-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Texans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Looking at the total, the Under is 4-0 in the Dolphins last 4 road games. The Under is 4-1 in the Texans last 5 home games.

Dolphins vs. Texans Picks

I am surprised the number on Houston is so high, as they are not a great team. I know that Osweiler is getting the start for Miami, but he has played pretty well in relief of Tannehill and it is not like Tannehill is that good anyway. I think the value is definitely on the Dolphins in this contest. I also think there is value on the total. Neither of these offenses is that good and the only player capable of making a big play is DeAndre Hopkins. I think this will be a defensive battle, so I will also take the game under the total.

Dolphins vs. Texans Pick: Dolphins +7.5 and Under 44.5 at BetDSI
Dolphins vs. Texans Score Prediction: Texans 20, Dolphins 17

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Top Props - Dolphins at Texans
October 25, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

NFL Props - Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, as four consecutive wins have moved them to the top of the AFC South. The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, enter their head-to-head matchup losers of three of their past four. Despite their recent differences, both teams have identical 4-3 records on the season.

The Houston Texans are at home in this matchup and have the superior personnel. They will be solid favorites to take care of business in this “Thursday Night Football” affair. There will be plenty of prop bets available for this game, and it’s up to the bettors to pinpoint which ones make the most sense. Listed below are some of the best prop wager options for NFL odds.

This NFL football game between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans will be held at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas at 8:20 p.m ET on Thursday, October 25th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on FOX and NFL Network.

We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The Texans are listed as 7-point favorites in this matchup. They are listed at -360 on the moneyline while Miami is +289 to pull off the upset. The scoring total is listed at 44.5 points as the oddsmakers believe a low-scoring affair is on deck.

Beyond the standard pregame wagers is all the available prop bets. One of them asks if this game is going to be decided by exactly three points. That seems like it is an extreme longshot as it’s nearly impossible to guess the margin of a game, but the fact is that a bunch of NFL games finish with three-point margins. Even so, the “yes” option is +500 underdog and the “no” is the -850 favorite.

Another prop bet asks if there is going to be a defensive touchdown. That’s an interesting one because the Dolphins are expected to roll out backup quarterback Brock Osweiler for the contest. The Texans have a host of talented defensive players, led by star pass-rushers J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. Don’t be surprised if the “yes” choice hits at +180. The “no” choice is still the favorite at -235.

The largest lead of the game margin is listed at 16.5 points, with above and below that number each being wagered on at -120. It’s an interesting number and one that’s hard to figure. This is a prop bet you may want to avoid.

It’s often to see a team scoring within the last two minutes of the half. There is a question whether or not this game will have that, with “yes” the favorite at -265 and “no” the +200 underdog. It’s an intriguing bet for it not to happen, especially if the questionable Miami offense has the ball as the clock ticks down before halftime. The +200 odds makes that a worthy gamble.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The best prop on the board asks how many touchdowns will be scored in this matchup. The over/under is listed at 4.5 touchdowns, which is too low. It all comes down to whether or not these teams can get into the end zone when they are in range.

The Texans have a mobile quarterback in Deshaun Watson who does a good job in the red zone. The Dolphins might not score a lot but they do have enough playmakers to score a couple of times. That will be enough for the “over” to hit on this prop bet in NFL gambling.

NFL ATS Pick: Over 4.5 touchdowns in the Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans “Thursday Night Football” game

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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 25
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at HOU 08:20 PM

HOU -7.5

O 44.0

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Watson throws 5 TDs, Texans rout Miami
October 25, 2018
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HOUSTON (AP) Deshaun Watson matched his career high with five touchdown passes to lead the Houston Texans to their fifth straight victory, 42-23 over the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night.

The Texans (5-3) have left their 0-3 start behind with their longest single-season winning streak since reeling off six victories in a row in 2012.

Watson threw touchdown passes of 13, 2, 73, 49 and 2 yards to give him 34 career scoring passes to move ahead of Dan Marino (32) for second-most through in NFL history after 15 games.

Miami's Brock Osweiler, who had one tough season in Houston after signing a $72 million contract in 2016, threw for 241 yards with an interception in his third straight start in place of injured starter Ryan Tannehill.

Kenyan Drake had a touchdown run and touchdown reception for the Dolphins (4-4). They lost for the second straight week.

Rookie Jordan Thomas caught the first two touchdown passes of his career, DeAndre Hopkins had 82 yards receiving and two scores and Will Fuller added 124-yards receiving and a touchdown.

Texans running back Lamar Miller, who grew up in Miami and spent his first four seasons with the Dolphins, had 133 yards rushing and a touchdown for his second straight 100-yard game.

Houston led by 8 when Watson threw a 49-yard touchdown pass to Hopkins on the first play of the fourth quarter to make it 35-20.

Watson found the speedy Fuller in front of the defense for a 73-yard touchdown that left Houston up 28-17 late in the third quarter. It was the longest touchdown pass of Watson's career and the longest reception of Fuller's. Fuller has caught 11 touchdown passes in 11 career games with Watson.

The Dolphins used a 41-yard field goal to cut the lead to 28-20 with less than a minute left in the third quarter. That score came after a drive featuring a crazy 46-yard pass by Osweiler . He threw the ball to Jakeem Grant, who lost it after being hit by two Texans defenders, but it sailed down the field and into the hands of DeVante Parker for the big gain.

A 58-yard run by Miller got the Texans to the 9-yard line early in the third quarter. Houston extended the lead to 21-10 when Watson found Thomas again, this time on a 2-yard pass.

The Dolphins used some trickery later in the third quarter when Osweiler pitched a lateral to Danny Amendola, who threw a 28-yard touchdown pass to Drake to cut the lead to 21-17.

Hopkins scored his second touchdown on a 2-yard reception with about eight minutes left in the fourth quarter, but his most impressive play of the night came on a catch that didn't count. Hopkins reached back and grabbed the ball with one hand and weaved it between his legs in the air before crashing to the ground. But it was brought back after he was called for pass interference.

INJURIES

Houston CB Johnathan Joseph injured his ankle in the first quarter and didn't return. ... ILB Zach Cunningham left in the first quarter with a knee injury and didn't return. ... Fuller left the game after injuring his knee in the fourth quarter.

ANTHEM

Miami defensive end Robert Quinn again raised his right fist during the anthem as he has done in past weeks.

UP NEXT

Dolphins: Host the New York Jets on Nov. 4.

Texans: Visit Denver on Nov. 4.

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Sunday, October 28, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
9:30 AM Philadelphia Eagles Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM New York Jets Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Detroit Lions
1:00 PM Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM Washington Redskins New York Giants
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers
4:05 PM Indianapolis Colts Oakland Raiders
4:25 PM San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals
4:25 PM Green Bay Packers Los Angeles Rams
8:20 PM New Orleans Saints Minnesota Vikings

Monday, October 29, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM New England Patriots Buffalo Bills


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Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/25/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/22/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/21/2018 9-9-0 50.00% -4.50
10/18/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/15/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/14/2018 15-9-1 62.50% +25.50
10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total............48-34-1.........58.53%.....+53.00

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Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/25/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0...............+5.00...............+10.00
10/22/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0...............+5.00................-0.50
10/21/2018..............4 - 4..................-2.00....................4 - 4................-2.00................-4.00
10/18/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................0 - 1................-5.50................-0.50
10/15/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................-5.50................-0.50
10/14/2018..............5 - 4.................+3.00....................4 - 6................-13.00..............-10.00
10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals...................17 - 16..................+2.00.................20 - 18...............+1.50.................+3.50

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Friday’s six-pack

College football trends for Week 8:

— Washington State is 15-5 in last 20 games as a road underdog.

— Home side covered 7 of last 10 Wisconsin-Northwestern games.

— Pitt is 8-15-1 vs spread in its last 24 home games.

— Kansas covered once in its last six games as a home underdog.

— New Mexico covered only two of last nine conference games.

— North Carolina covered six of its last eight games vs Virginia.

Tweet of the Day
“I was playing my job of man, so I didn’t really know what was going on. But, shoot, I’ve seen a replay and it was obviously a false start. We’ve been having a lot of things like that this whole entire year, so we’ve grown accustomed to it. I don’t think that made or broke this game, but at the end of the day we’ve just got to overcome any type of adversity, because it seems like don’t nobody want to see us succeed.”
Browns’ safety Damarious Randall, after officials missed an obvious false start against the Chargers Sunday- LA scored a TD on that play. The official who missed it was fired this week.

Friday’s quiz
Where did Brock Osweiler play his college football?

Thursday’s quiz
Long time ago, the Sacramento Kings were based in Cincinnati, and called the Royals; they moved to Kansas City, became the Kings, then later moved to Sacramento.

Wednesday’s quiz
Ben Simmons played his one year of college basketball at LSU.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random facts on a fall Friday

13) Thru seven weeks, NFL teams are 35-59 (59.3%) on 2-point conversions.

12) Kerryon Johnson ran for 158 yards Sunday for the Lions, the best day for a Detroit RB in seven years; Lions drafted Johnson with a pick they got from New England on draft day- the pick was originally the 49ers’ pick, but San Francisco traded that pick to New England in the Jimmy Garoppolo deal.

Funny how the Patriots trading Garoppolo wound up benefitting Detroit.

11) Ravens have allowed only one TD on the opening drive of a half this year, and that came on a 6-yard drive by Denver after a blocked punt. In their last four games, Baltimore has forced three turnovers on their opponents’ first drive of the game.

10) Last year, the Eagles converted 51.4% of 3rd down plays in the red zone, which was the 3rd best %age in the NFL. This year they are at 21.1%, ranking second-last in the NFL.

9) Dallas traded for WR Omari Cooper because their offense needs a jolt; in their seven games this season, Cowboys have gone 3/out on their first drive five times. Maybe Cooper can make their offense more explosive, allow them to get off to better starts.

8) In Buffalo Bills’ last four games: they were outscored 56-7 in first half. Bills had the ball 42 times in those games; they scored two TD’s, turned ball over 12 times.

7) Atlanta Falcons converted 32 of their last 55 third down plays.

6) 54 teams have led a World Series 2-0; 43 of them went on to win that World Series.

5) Best ppp in red zone this season:
Seattle 5.73 (15 drives), Baltimore 5.65 (26 drives), Kansas City 5.61 (33 drives)

4) Best ppp on drives that started 75+ yards from end zone:
Kansas City 3.05, New Orleans 2.86, Atlanta 2.72

3) Thru first nine days of the NBA season, home favorites were 24-20 vs spread, home underdogs 14-5.

Teams playing 2nd consecutive night are 9-5 vs spread; 3-3 when favored, 6-2 as dogs. 10 of those 14 games went over the total.

2) Cleveland Browns have played four OT games already this season; only one of their seven games was decided by more than four points. How many games does Hue Jackson have to win to keep his job?

NFL teams with a +2 or better turnover margin are 36-3-1 this season; Cleveland is 1-1-1, and everyone else is 35-2.

1) Since 2012, Denver Broncos have drafted five quarterbacks; none of those five guys is still on the Broncos.

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Eagles vs. Jaguars
October 25, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Preview – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

We get another early game in London this week, as the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. This matchup looked great before the season began, as the Eagles are defending Super Bowl champs, while the Jaguars made the AFC Championship Game, but right now both teams are struggling. Both teams are 3-4 and each team badly needs a win. Let’s look at this matchup on Sunday on NFL Network and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Sunday, October 28, 2018, 9:30 a.m. ET
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Eagles -3 (-120), O/U 42
Eagles vs. Jaguars TV Coverage: NFL Network

The Eagles are slight favorites in this neutral site contest in London on Sunday that has an early start time of 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Philadelphia has been up and down this season, but Carson Wentz is starting to look like the player he was before getting injured last season and the Eagles are still very much alive in the NFC East. Philadelphia hasn’t been bad this season, but they haven’t been pulling out the wins they did a year ago. The Eagles have lost four games this season, with all four coming by less than six points.

The Jaguars have lost three straight games and there are reports of dissention in the locker room. The defense is fed up with Blake Bortles turning the ball over. It got so bad last week that Bortles was pulled in favor of backup Cody Kessler. The Jacksonville defense has not played nearly as well as they did a year ago, as they are giving up almost 21 points per game.

The Eagles are scoring about 22 points per game and giving up just under 20 per contest. They are 2-5 ATS, with four games going under and three going over. The Jaguars are scoring 16.6 points per game and giving up just under 21 points per contest. They are 3-4 ATS, with three games going over and four going under the total.

Matchup to Watch

If the Jaguars are going to win this game they have to win it on defense. That means they have to win the matchup up front with Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell going against Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. The Jaguars are 20th in the NFL with 15 sacks this season. They are way behind last year’s pace when they had 55. Part of the problem has been that Jacksonville has been playing from behind and opposing teams can run the ball.

The Jaguars could have success this week against a banged up Johnson and Peters. Johnson has been dealing with an ankle sprain, while Peters has been playing through a torn bicep and quad injury. If the Jaguars can get pressure they can force turnovers. Wentz has fumbled in every game this season and in his 34 career starts he has 29 fumbles.

Key Stats

The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Looking at the total, the Under is 7-3 in the Eagles last 10 games on grass. The Over is 5-2 in the Jaguars last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Eagles vs. Jaguars Picks

If Bortles was playing better I would definitely go with the Jaguars, as I think there is value on Jacksonville plus the points. The problem is that I don’t trust Bortles. I think there is more value on the total. The Eagles are just not the same offense they were a year ago, as they have not been able to run the ball effectively and take the pressure off Wentz. The Jacksonville offense has been dreadful without Leonard Fournette who won’t play this week. I think this will be a close, defensive battle, so I will go under the total.

Eagles vs. Jaguars Pick: Under 42 at BetDSI
Eagles vs. Jaguars Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Jaguars 17

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Jaguars could be down 3 cornerbacks
October 25, 2018
By The Associated Press

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) The Jacksonville Jaguars will be without Pro Bowl cornerback A.J. Bouye against Philadelphia in London on Sunday.

The Jaguars (3-4) ruled Bouye out Thursday, saying he did not make the overseas trip. The team also will be without backup cornerback Tyler Patmon because of a neck injury. Patmon also remained in Jacksonville.

Cornerback D.J. Hayden (toe) made the flight, but he's unlikely to play because of a lingering toe injury. Hayden has missed five consecutive games and hasn't practiced since Sept. 21.

Bouye missed practice Thursday after sustaining a calf injury in drills the day before.

Without them, the Jaguars will have three undrafted rookie cornerbacks to play alongside All-Pro Jalen Ramsey.

Tre' Herndon or fellow undrafted rookie Quenton Meeks is expected to start, and newly signed Dee Delaney will serve as a backup. Meeks started the season on the practice squad, and Delaney was promoted to the 53-man roster Thursday. The team placed linebacker Donald Payne (knee) on IR.

''I'm definitely looking forward to it,'' said Meeks, a former starter at Stanford. ''It's a chance to fill in for A.J. I'm just trying to fill in and do my job until he gets back healthy and everything like that. I have to step in and do what I have to do. I'm just preparing like I would all the time. I've worked my whole life for this.''

Meeks is the son of former Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Ron Meeks, who coached in the NFL between 1991 and 2012.

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Week 8 Best Bets - Sides
October 25, 2018
By Bookmaker

Week 8 NFL Best Bets – Sides

Thanks to a late TD in the final minute by the Titans last week, my best bet on them over in London managed to cash. That makes it a 3-0 ATS mark over the past two weeks, and hopefully that great run can continue.

This week I'm staying in the AFC South for my best bet play(s) as this division is really wide open at the moment and everyone in the division is trying to not fall too far behind current leader Houston. There are two teams in action that are looking up at the Texans this week, and while I do lean with Jacksonville and the FG they are getting on the spread, it's the other AFC South team that qualifies as this week's best bet:

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Indianapolis -3

This is already one of the more popular plays out there this week as nobody wants a piece of the Oakland Raiders right now, myself included. I was someone who was willing to give Gruden the benefit of the doubt after the Khalil Mack trade as Mack was holding out for more money (rightfully so), Gruden and the Raiders knew they couldn't pay him, so that parting was inevitable.

But trading away WR Amari Cooper – although he's known to drop quite a few passes – is the clear sign to me that Gruden's looking to tear this thing down in Oakland as much as he can. With the 10-year contract in his back pocket, Gruden knows he's got plenty of rope in terms of building this team from his own image, and if the next step in that plan is to get the #1 overall draft pick in the upcoming draft, while the Raiders are well on their way.

Oakland does have the added benefit of being off a bye here, but this team is in such disarray that I don't think it matters. Reports have already come up this week from the locker room regarding players being really unhappy with how Gruden's handled things so far, and that many guys currently on Oakland question if they'll still be a Raider next week. That's a rough spot to be in as an organization and there is probably still a lot of pain coming for Raiders fans this year.

Now you get a still-banged up Colts team rolling into town, and while the popularity of the Colts ATS bet (75%+) is a little concerning, when you can reasonably assume it's because of how much of a disaster Oakland is right now, the concerns tend to wane.

Indy did seem to correct numerous things last week in their blowout win over Buffalo, most notably their defense finally stepped up and played a complete game. It had been three straight weeks of allowing 30+ before the Colts held Buffalo to just 5 points last week, and with Oakland not exactly loaded with offensive weapons these days, this Colts defense should be able to build upon that performance last week.

Oakland has really done next to nothing on offense outside of their win against Cleveland, as they've not scored more than 20 points in any other game this year. Considering the Colts have put up 23 or more in five of their seven games overall, you've got to like the Colts chances of leaving California with a comfortable win in hand.

Finally, with the Colts on a 11-2 ATS run on the road against a losing home team, and 15-7 ATS after a win by 14+ points, the spot is still a good one for the Colts specifically, aside from all the issues surrounding Oakland. Add in all the problems Oakland is dealing with on and off the field, and I've got no problem doing the rare thing and joining the majority of bettors here by backing the Colts.

Oakland is on the fast track to a year of something like three or fewer wins, and any time you get their point spread of a FG or less the rest of 2018, you've got to consider going the other way. That's what I'm doing this week by backing the Colts, as Indy climbs back up to three wins themselves and stays within striking distance in the AFC South.

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Week 8 Best Bets - Totals
October 25, 2018
By Bookmaker

Week 8 NFL Best Bets – Totals

Week 7 of the NFL season brought plenty of 'unders' with it as the entire league went 4-10 O/U a week ago. Thankfully, last week's plays in this piece were on two of those winning 'unders' as both the Cowboys/Redskins and Rams/49ers game managed to finish below their respective numbers.

Thanks to that 4-10 O/U record last week, the markets this week have already seen more 'under' action on a handful of games, as bettors are viewing some of these higher totals we are getting on average now as just a bit too high. Those days of Week 1, 2, and 3, where 'overs' were cashing at a high clip appear to be nothing more than a memory now, but this week I'm actually going to the high side of the number with my best bet for the week as I think we see at points come in bunches from a couple of desperate teams.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Philadelphia/Jacksonville Over 42

The Eagles/Jags game will be the final one played in London this year, and with each team sitting at 3-4 SU, both are desperate for a win. Jacksonville has lost three in a row and four of five, scoring 14 points or less in each of those four losses. Philadelphia has lost three of four as well, and with the NFC East seemingly slowly slipping away from the defending champs, Philly better find some consistent offensive play if they want to start piling up the wins.

Philly's problem a week ago when they blew a 17-0 lead entering the 4th was the fact that the entire offense went conservative with their play-calling and played not to lose. Carolina stormed back, and when it was time for the Philly attack to “turn it on again” it was just too late. Given how aggressive HC Doug Pederson was with the Eagles a year ago, going the conservative route was surprising to say the least.

But given how it played out, I doubt we see the Eagles go into a shell with a sizable lead at any point the rest of the season. Continually being aggressive is what brought Philly so much success a year ago, and against a Jacksonville defense – that is seemingly a shell of the 2017 version – you have to be aggressive as an offense if you want to have success. That shouldn't be a problem for Philly this week, and with the Jags having allowed an average of 30 points/game over the last three weeks, there probably isn't a better time to catch the Jags defense than right now.

Trusting Jacksonville's offense to carry their weight in pushing this game 'over' the number is the riskier part of this proposition in my eyes, and given that they've failed to score more than 14 points the past three weeks, it's easy to understand the concern. The Jags are one more disastrous Blake Bortles performance from an all out mutiny right now, as Bortles knows he's got this week and probably this week only to regain confidence from his teammates.

And with the leash as short as it is, what does Bortles have to lose by going out there and being ultra-aggressive from the start. Whether that leads to points for or against the Jags, an attack early, often, and always mindset tends to be what we see from QB's on the hot seat, and it's what I expect to see from Bortles here.

Furthermore, since the Jags are the unofficial team of London having played here every year for some time now, history shows that Jags games in London are where Jacksonville's offense tends to come to life. Jacksonville won 44-7 over Baltimore here a year ago, beat the Colts 30-27 back in 2016, beat Buffalo 34-31 in 2015, lost 31-17 to Dallas in 2014, and lost 42-10 back in 2013, the first year Jacksonville started making the annual pilgrimage across the pond.

All five of those point totals would easily cash an 'over' ticket on this week's number, and it's not like the Jags went into most of those games with a much different attack. Those three recent efforts of scoring 30+ have all been led by Blake Bortles, so I'm hoping a trip to London with a fire lit under his ass is exactly what Bortles needs to likely save his career as the starter in Jacksonville.

This number in the low-40's is simply too low for this final London game to be lined with. It's that low because of Jacksonville's reputation on defense, their abysmal play on offense lately, and the Eagles looking shaky of late as well. But the desperation both teams feel regarding getting a win will lead both sides to take plenty of shots here and hopefully put on a show for the London crowd.

Finally, did you know that since multiple games per year started to be played in London back in 2013, London NFL fans have not gone through a season without seeing at least one of those games finish with 50 or more points? Basically every year these fans get to see a high-scoring game filled with plenty of action, and so far they've seen Seattle/Oakland combine for 30 points, and Tennessee/LAC combine for 39.

Hopefully their “favorite” team (Jacksonville) is back at “home” this week to save the day this week, as the Jags track record for offensive production in London can't be ignored and could easily be repeated against an Eagles defense that has really struggled all year.

With Bortles playing for his job and both teams playing to stay in their respective playoff races, I think these non-conference foes do end up putting on an offensive show for the faithful London fans and give them their yearly game of 50 or more points.

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Week 8 Best Bets - Teasers
October 25, 2018
By BetOnline.ag

NFL Week 8 Exotic Betting Options

Thanks to the New York jets getting blown out on their home field last week, I finally dropped my first teaser play of the year. That makes it two consecutive weeks of losing plays in this space after my ML parlay didn't get there in Week 6, meaning it's time to get back on track with this week's selections.

This week it's all about going back to the basics regarding teasers, as that means teasing through key numbers and supporting decent teams to get the job done. This week I'm backing two of arguably the better teams in the league as I expect both to come away with SU wins at home.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Week 8: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) – L.A. Rams (-2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers and L.A. Rams are two organizations that were atop many lists in terms of futures plays coming into the year, and while the undefeated L.A. Rams look the part of a potential Super Bowl winner, the Pittsburgh Steelers have yet to show the same skill. Pittsburgh gets another crack at the Cleveland Browns this week and that's where I'll start.

Pittsburgh tied Cleveland back in Week 1 and they were probably lucky to escape the Dawg Pound with just a tie. The Steelers turned the ball over six times that afternoon (-5 TO differential) as it was just an all-around sloppy start to the season for the Steelers.

However, seven weeks later, things have become much more stable for the Steelers, and while the Le'Veon Bell saga continues to drag on, I'm guessing that the majority of the locker room has long put thoughts of Bell's eventual return out of their minds. Pittsburgh has won two in a row and three of four coming into this game, so things are going well for them now without Bell. When he returns, the Steelers will deal with it, but until that happens, it's basically a non-story for these guys.

The Steelers aren't going to be turning the ball over six times against Cleveland again, and while they will be dealing with QB Baker Mayfield this time rather than Tyrod Taylor, there's more than enough film on Mayfield these days for this Steelers defense to be overly prepared. Being at home, rested, and the more talented team, teasing the Steelers down to where they just have to win the game outright is arguably the best teaser option out there this week.

Getting the Rams below a FG fit the parameters of another solid teaser option as they look to remain undefeated on the year by being a visiting Green Bay Packers team.

Green Bay is coming off their week of rest which should only help them on numerous fronts – game-planning, Aaron Rodgers' health – but the Packers don't have the defense to even really slow down the Rams attack, and the last defensive front I'd want to face if I had a gimpy QB who's basically played on one leg all year like Rodgers has, would be this Rams front seven. L.A. will contain and collapse the pocket all afternoon on Rodgers and the Packers O-line here, likely making life miserable for the veteran QB.

The fact that oddsmakers came out with one of the highest underdog lines Aaron Rodgers has ever faced in his career speaks to how highly they view this L.A. Rams team, as most of the league and betting market does as well. Teasing L.A down to under a FG eliminates concerns about the Packers possibly getting a backdoor cover late, and it's tough to see L.A. losing their first game of the year at home against a barely mobile QB.

L.A. stretches their record to 8-0 SU here and keeps the 1972 Miami Dolphins champagne on ice for at least one more week.