Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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Top Props - Pack at 'Hawks
November 15, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

NFL Football Odds - Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks NFL Game Props

The Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers are used to making it to the playoffs, but that is in jeopardy this season. Both of these teams could really use a win in Week 11 but only one of them is going to get it when they face off in Seattle.

The Packers have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers but the Seahawks are a deeper team overall. Seattle also has the home field advantage, which has made it the favorite for this matchup. In addition to the standard pregame wagers, there are also a host of prop bets for this “Thursday Night Football” primetime affair.

Below are some of the most intriguing prop bet options in NFL gambling.

This NFL football game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks will be held at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, Washington at 10:20 p.m ET on Thursday, November 15th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on FOX, NFL Network and Amazon Prime.

We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The Seahawks are listed as the three-point favorites in this matchup. The oddsmakers believe these teams are even in talent and Seattle has the slight edge due to the location. Seattle is the -150 favorite while Green Bay is the +130 underdog. The scoring total is listed at 49 points.

This game is supposed to be close and unsurprisingly the prop bet asking which team will score first is also tight. The Seahawks are the favorites at -125 while the Packers are listed at -105. Seattle’s offense has been moving the ball well lately and the crowd will be amped up for Green Bay’s first possession. The Seahawks are the good choice in this one.

There is another bet along those lines asking if there are going to be points in the first six minutes of the game. These offenses have that ability, and the “yes” is the right call at -110 odds, which are slightly more favorable odds than the “no” choice at -120.

Green Bay’s total points is placed at 23.5 points for this matchup. Seattle used to have one of the finest defenses in the NFL but lost Legion of Boom stars Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor all within the past year, making the defense weaker. Linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive end Frank Clark are a pair of talented players but the “over” looks like a good bet.

The Seahawks’ scoring total is listed at 26.5 points. Seattle has enough firepower to score regularly but this number is pretty high. The Seahawks are getting too much benefit of the doubt as the “under” is the pick for them.

NFL Odds Analysis

There is an interesting prop bet asking if this game will be decided by a field goal. That is the exact spread and the teams are close enough in talent that this contest figures to be close. If the margin does finish at exactly three points, it would pay off nicely at +350. The “no” wager is still the heavy favorite at -500, but that number is better than the odds this prop bet has the majority of the time in other games.

Even though these teams should go blow-for-blow, someone is going to win by a few more points than a field goal. Take the “no” choice as the -500 odds are solid in this one. The Packers are a good upset candidate and they will win by more than a field goal.

NFL ATS Pick: The Seahawks-Packers matchup will not be decided by exactly a field goal

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Thursday's Top Wager
November 15, 2018
By BetDSI

by Tom Wilkinson

NFL Betting Preview – Packers at Seahawks

You can make a case that Thursday night’s game on FOX between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks is an elimination game in terms of making the playoffs. The Packers come into this game at 4-4-1, while the Seahawks are 4-5.

While many people will think of this game as a matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, the Packers and Seahawks would prefer to run the ball. Let’s look at this Thursday Night Football matchup and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Thursday, November 15, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Seahawks -3, O/U 48
Packers vs. Seahawks TV Coverage: FOX

The Packers and Seahawks could easily have better records than they do. The Packers had the lead late against the Rams and they had every chance to beat the Patriots, while the Seahawks have lost five games by a touchdown or less. "It's finishing at the right time, making the right play," head coach Pete Carroll said to the media, "We've been so good at those games for such a long time that the fact that it's not happening is a little bit unusual. I'm disappointed because we've been able to always feel like we're going to win those games and do it. We still have the same mentality about it and attitude about it, but we've got to show it. We've got to get those finishes done."

The Packers are still led by Rodgers and the Seahawks are led by Wilson, but both teams have been running the ball well of late. Rodgers has 17 TD passes and just one interception, but Green Bay has turned their focus to the run with Aaron Jones who had 145 yards and two touchdowns last week in Green Bay’s 31-12 win over Miami. He leads the NFL at 6.8 yards per carry. The Seahawks have been vulnerable to the run, as they allowed 7.3 yards per carry to the Chargers and 6.5 yards per carry to the Rams.

The Seahawks are the top rushing team in the league, averaging 152.2 yards per game. They should have success against a Green Bay defense that allows 4.5 yards per carry. "Their run attempts is the primary focus for them," head coach Mike McCarthy said to the media, "You just look at their last game, the production they're getting from the run game. I think as you go through the defensive game plans each and every week, it's to try to make the offense one dimensional. Their run game is a huge challenge."

Matchup to Watch

The key matchup in this game is Seattle’s rushing attack vs. the Green Bay defense. The Seahawks have three good runners in Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis. The Seahawks are the only team in the NFL to have three different players rush for at least 100 yards in a game this season. The Packers are just 22nd in the NFL, allowing 120.9 yards per game on the ground. If Seattle can control this game on the ground they will have a good chance to win.

Key Stats

The Seahawks are 7-1 on Thursday night’s under Carroll. The Packers lead this all-time series 17-9, including last year’s 17-9 win at Green Bay. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. The Packers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games in November. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Looking at the total, the Over is 11-2 in the Packers last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. The Over is 35-16 in the Packers last 51 road games. The Under is 6-2 in the Seahawks last 8 games overall. The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.

Packers vs. Seahawks Picks

I lean slightly to the Seahawks in this game, but I think the better play is on the total. Neither of these defenses is that good and both teams should be able to move the ball effectively throughout this game. I will go over the total at BetDSI.

Packers vs. Seahawks Pick: Over 48 at BetDSI
Packers vs. Seahawks Score Prediction: Seahawks 30, Packers 24

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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at SEA 08:20 PM
SEA -3.0
U 49.0

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Seahawks rally past Packers, 27-24
November 15, 2018
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SEATTLE (AP) After a shaky beginning, Russell Wilson got hot in the fourth quarter and kept the Seattle Seahawks in the middle of the NFC playoff race.

Wilson threw for 225 yards and his 15-yard touchdown pass to Ed Dickson with 5:08 left was the difference in the Seahawks' 27-24 victory over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night.

In a key matchup in the battle for the two NFC wild-card spots, Seattle (5-5) snapped a two-game losing streak by overcoming an early 14-3 deficit. Wilson was shaky at times early game, but was outstanding in the fourth quarter, capping the winning drive by recognizing a blitz and hitting Dickson quickly for his second TD pass of the night. Seattle still has not lost three straight games since the middle of the 2011 season.

Aaron Rodgers had a huge first half for Green Bay (4-5-1) and threw for 332 yards, but the Packers had just one scoring drive in the second half, helped by a 57-yard strike from Rodgers to Davante Adams. Rodgers threw a pair of touchdown passes in the first half, but never got the ball back after Green Bay punted with 4:20 left.

Seattle ran out the clock thanks to a pair of runs from Mike Davis.

Chris Carson rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown, overcoming the mistake of fumbling on the first play of the game and setting up Green Bay's opening score. Tyler Lockett had two key receptions late in the fourth quarter and Doug Baldwin had his first TD catch of the season for Seattle.

Rodgers was 21-of-30 passing with 10 of those going to Adams for 166 yards receiving. Backup tight end Robert Tonyan had the first catch of his career go for a 54-yard touchdown to give Green Bay an early 14-3 lead. The Packers led 21-17 at halftime after Jones caught a 24-yard TD pass from Rodgers in the final minute of the half, but Green Bay's offense was stymied in the second half.

The Packers gained just 114 yards in the second half, half coming on the one throw from Rodgers to Adams. That pass set up Mason Crosby's 36-yard field goal with 8:23 left, but Wilson had one more answer.

Wilson hit Lockett on consecutive plays for 18 yards - to convert a third-down - and 34 yards to the Green Bay 16. Two plays later, facing another third-and-long, Wilson recognized the blitz and hit Dickson quickly over the middle to put Seattle in front.

That proved to be enough. On Green Bay's next drive, Rodgers short-hopped a pass on third-and-2. Rather than going for it on fourth-down, Mike McCarthy opted to punt despite having just one time out. Seattle never gave the ball back.

INJURIES

Green Bay was down four starters with CB Kevin King, S Kentrell Brice, LB Nick Perry and WR Randall Cobb all out due to injuries. They lost two more in the first half when Bashaud Breeland - starting for King - aggravated a groin injury and Jimmy Graham injured his thumb. Graham had a 13-yard reception on Green Bay's first offensive play in his return to Seattle, but that was his only catch.

Mike Daniels suffered a foot injury early in the second half and backup safety Raven Greene suffered an ankle injury. Neither returned.

UP NEXT

Packers: At Minnesota on Nov. 25.

Seahawks: At Carolina on Nov. 25.

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NFLNovember's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/15/2018 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
11/12/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/11/2018 9-14-1 39.13% -32.00
11/08/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/05/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/04/2018 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00
11/01/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00

Totals............18-33-1.......35.29%.....-92.500


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Best Bets For November

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

11/15/2018..............0 - 0.................-0.00......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-5.50
11/12/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2018..............2 - 5.................-17.50....................2 - 4...............-12.00.............-29.50
11/08/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00
11/05/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................1 - 0...............+5.00..............-0.50
11/04/2018..............3 - 4.................-7.00......................3 - 4...............-7.00...............-14.00
11/01/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00

Totals......................5 -13.................-46.50...................6 - 12...............-36.00..............-82.50

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Friday’s 6-pack

— Boise State is 8-4-1 vs spread in its last 13 road games.

— Missouri covered only one of its last six road games.

— Oregon State covered one of its last nine Pac-12 games.

— Boston College is 16-3 vs spread in its last 19 regular season games.

— UL-Lafayette covered six of its last seven games.

— Fresno State is 18-4-2 ATS since Tedford became coach.

Quote of the Day
“The word “listen” has the same letters as the word ‘silent’”
Unknown

Friday’s quiz
Where is Gonzaga University located?

Thursday’s quiz
Portland Trailblazers have excellent guards, Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum; Lillard went to college at Weber State, McCollum went to Lehigh.

Wednesday’s quiz
LSU’s basketball arena is named after the late Pete Maravich.


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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) Annual tradition here in not-so-beautiful upstate New York. When it snows outside, and it is snowing now. I get on the Interweb and price condos in Las Vegas, where snow is merely a rumor.

Snow is the only bad part of living here; nothing is quite as much fun as getting up on a step-ladder to sweep the snow off my satellite dish.

12) Last year at this time the Miami Marlins sold off their whole outfield; Stanton, Ozuna and Yelich. Wonder what the odds were that of those three guys, Christian Yelich would be the MVP this season? He had a great year, leading Milwaukee to a playoff berth.

11) San Diego Union-Tribune writer John Maffei is the only one out of 30 voters who didn’t vote for Jacob deGrom for the NL Cy Young Award. Mr Maffei values W-L record as a stat, so deGrom’s 10-9 record for a dismal Mets team didn’t impress him much.

10) UConn 83, Syracuse 76— Huskies made 12-21 behind arc; Syracuse was playing without G Howard; things aren’t as easy when you play away from home.

9) DePaul 72, Penn State 70 OT— Nittany Lions jumped out to 11-0 lead, trailed 36-31 at half, then forced OT, where they missed wide open, game-tying jumper at end of OT. DePaul is 3-0 for first time in ten years.

8) Ohio State 69, Creighton 60— Second quality road win for the young Buckeyes, who won at Cincinnati last week.

7) Seahawks 27, Packers 24— Seattle outrushed Green Bay 173-48; Packers converted only 3-11 third down plays. 46-yard FG Crosby missed when Packers led 7-0 turned out to be painful.

6) Houston Rockets and Carmelo Anthony parted ways after 10 games; who thought this pairing was going to be a good idea? Anthony didn’t want to come off the bench, but when you get older and your skills decline, what did he think was going to happen?

5) Lakers’ G Rajon Rondo broke his hand, is out 3-5 weeks.

4) Former LSU football coach Les Miles took a one-time lump sum payment of $1.5M from the school, reduced from the $6.5M he was scheduled to get over the next five years, but that tells me that Miles is going to be a head coach somewhere else next season. If he took the $6.5M, he would’ve had to stay out of coaching until 2023.

3) Someone on Twitter posted a list of their ten favorite airports, and it started a firestorm of responses; since I only fly to one place, and it is usually a non-stop flight, my list is short:

1) Las Vegas
2) Albany
3) Baltimore (sometimes my flights stop there; they have a Chick-fil-A)

2) Cal Bears postponed their basketball game with Detroit Mercy Thursday night because of poor air quality in the area due to the wild fires. San Francisco also postponed Friday night’s home basketball game with Arizona State.

1) Jim Boeheim has been the basketball coach at Syracuse for 43 years; he played for the Orange, was an assistant coach there before being head coach. Boeheim’s son Buddy is a player for Syracuse now; how the hell do they spell the kid’s last name wrong on his orange jersey?

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Sunday's Top Wager
November 16, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

NFL Game Preview - Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars are preparing for their rematch of last year’s AFC playoff game, but only one of these two is on track to return to the postseason. Jacksonville won that playoff matchup but has struggled for several weeks and is under .500 on the year despite entering as one of the conference favorites.

The Steelers have been a perennial contender in recent years and have lived up to that billing once again. Pittsburgh has shaken off a slow start to look strong of late and will be the favorite in this one despite being on the road.

The Jaguars have one of the most talented defenses in the NFL but it has not lived up to expectations, and the offense has been inconsistent. Jacksonville badly needs to defend its home field in this one but it won’t be easy against such a talented foe in NFL gambling.

This NFL football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars will be held at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida at 1 p.m ET on Sunday, November 18th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on CBS.

We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The Steelers are listed as 5-point favorites for this matchup. They are the -235 favorite on the moneyline while the Jaguars are the +195 underdog despite being at home. The scoring total is listed at 47 points as the oddsmakers no longer have confidence in Jacksonville being able to shut down any offense it faces in NFL odds.

Player To Watch

James Conner -- The drama is over in Pittsburgh. Conner will be the team’s main running back the rest of the season after Le’Veon Bell decided not to sign the franchise tag by the Nov. 13 deadline and will now miss the rest of the year.

Conner has done a fantastic job in Bell’s absence and it is why the team doesn’t really seem to mind that Bell has moved on. Conner has 771 rushing yards this season and a 4.7 yards-per-carry average. He has added 387 yards receiving and done a nice job filling the role of Bell.

Conner suffered a concussion last time out but is practicing and should be good to go for the contest. Now that Bell is out of the picture, Conner can relax and settle in as the primary back.

Key Stat

6. That’s the number of losses the Jaguars had all of last season, and the same number it has through nine games this year. Jacksonville has dropped five straight and is now the underdog to stop that streak in this one. A loss would severely hurt the Jaguars’ shot at turning the season around.

The Jaguars were No. 5 in points scored and No. 2 in points allowed last year. This season, they are just No. 29 in points scored and No. 10 in points allowed. Jacksonville has been hurt by an injury to star running back Leonard Fournette, but he is back in the fold now.

If Fournette can get it going on the ground, the Jaguars will have a chance to pull the upset.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The Steelers are once again looking like one of the best teams in the NFL, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has found his groove. The Pittsburgh offense is dynamic, but look for the Jaguars’ defense to put together a vintage performance in this one.

The Steelers must play on the road, where it isn’t easy. If the Jaguars can run the ball well and avoid turnovers, they should be able to claim this win and breathe some new life into their season after all of the recent struggles. Jacksonville isn’t just the pick to cover the spread but to win the game outright in NFL wagering.

NFL ATS Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 20

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Top Total Plays - Week 11
November 16, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

NFL Football Odds - Top Totals Plays of Week 11

After an early surge of high scoring this season, the NFL oddsmakers did a great job of moving up their lines and getting “unders” to hit. They have a good feel of the teams at this point in the year and the totals should be accurately pegged. However, there are always circumstances going into games that should give bettors confidence in choosing one side or the other.

Here are the best over/under scoring total plays of Week 11 in the NFL season:

Odds Analysis

The Dallas Cowboys are hitting the road this week for a matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. The teams have differing styles, as Dallas likes to play ball control offense and run the ball while the Falcons are happy to air it out. Atlanta is at home and the three-point favorite, which means it will likely be able to dictate this game. Take the “over” on the 48.5 total as Dallas will need to throw more than hoped. The Cowboys recently added wide receiver Amari Cooper which is another reason to take that side of the total as he is going to help open up the offense this week and into the future.

The contest between the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs has a huge scoring total of 63.5 points, which isn’t a surprise considering these are two of the best offenses in recent history. The Rams’ defense has a tendency to make big plays but can also give up yards. The Chiefs’ defense is poor so there won’t be too much resistance for the Rams’ Jared Goff or Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes as they light things up. Even though the scoring total is high, don’t be scared off by it. This game will be similar to the shootout the Rams just played in against the Saints. Take the “over” in this matchup.

The Houston Texans are traveling to face the Washington Redskins this weekend and will be the slight favorites. While Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson is a dynamic talent, both of these teams will be content to get into a defensive slugfest. The scoring total for this matchup is set at 42.5 points but that is too high. Take the “under” for this showdown.

The Indianapolis Colts’ offense has been on fire lately and will aim to continue that trend, but get a tough matchup this week against the surging Tennessee Titans. The Titans allow the fewest points in the NFL on the season and are coming off a very impressive performance against the New England Patriots. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has done a fantastic job and looks back to form after some serious shoulder injuries threatened to derail his career. The Colts wouldn’t mind getting into a shootout, but the Titans are very ground-oriented and like to shorten games. The scoring total of 49 seems too high. Take the “under” in this contest.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The best scoring total of Week 11 comes from an NFC North clash that could help determine who wins the division down the road. The upstart Chicago Bears are hosting the Minnesota Vikings in a game with big implications. The teams both have solid defenses and thus the scoring total is listed at 44.5 points. However, that number is not giving enough credit to the offenses, which each boast a lot of talent and a pair of quarterbacks in Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky and Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins who are playing well.

If this season has proven anything, it’s that high-powered offenses tend to get the best of strong defenses. With that in mind, look for this game to have more points than the oddsmakers project. Roll with the “over” in this one as the best bet of the week.

NFL ATS Pick: The Chicago Bears-Minnesota Vikings game will go “over” 44.5 points

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Eagles at Saints
November 16, 2018
By BetDSI

by Tom Wilkinson

NFL Betting Preview – Eagles at Saints

The hottest team in the NFL looks to extend their winning streak, as the New Orleans Saints host the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday on FOX.

The Saints have won their last eight games and they have also been an excellent bet against the spread, covering their last seven. They are a solid home favorite on Sunday against a Philadelphia team that is in serious danger of missing the playoffs. Let’s look at this Week 11 matchup and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Sunday, November 18, 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Saints -9, O/U 56
Eagles vs. Saints TV Coverage: FOX

The Eagles are defending Super Bowl champions, but if they lose this game on Sunday they would fall two games below .500 and their playoff hopes would be looking grim. The Philadelphia offense that was great a year ago has done very little this season. They have scored 24 points or more just twice all season. They are 21st in the league, averaging 22 points per game. The Eagles will need to score points this week if they are to keep pace with the high scoring Saints.

Philadelphia is 2-2 ATS on the road, with three games going over and one going under. They are scoring 22 points per game and giving up just over 20 points per contest.

The Saints are just 2-2 ATS at home, with three of the four going over the total. The Saints lead the league in scoring, averaging almost 37 points per game. They are giving up about 26 points per contest. The Saints have scored less than 24 points just twice all season.

Key Factor

The first quarter is going to be huge in this game because the Eagles have not shown the ability to come from behind. Quarterback Carson Wentz said to the media that his team simply has to start well on Sunday. "Obviously, we realize as of late they've gotten up on teams early, we have a ton of confidence in our defense but that's a heck of an offense over there," Wentz said.

Matchup to Watch

It is hard to see how the Eagles win this game unless they have a huge game on offense because the Philadelphia defense isn’t that great against the pass. They rank 23rd in the league against the pass and that is bad news against Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense. The Eagles have even more bad news, as cornerback Ronald Darby tore his ACL last week and is out.

Key Stats

The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The Saints are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Looking at the total, the Over is 20-6 in the Eagles last 26 road games. The Over is 19-7-1 in the Saints last 27 home games. The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Eagles vs. Saints Picks

It is really hard to believe how far the Eagles have fallen in such a short period of time. They are almost a double-digit underdog in this contest. There is no question that this is a must-win game for Philadelphia, but since when have NFL teams come through in must-win situations? Normally I would be on the Eagles plus the points, but something is wrong with their offense this season and the loss of Darby on defense is huge.

I can’t see any way they can slow down the Saints in this contest. I will lay the points and take New Orleans. I will hedge slightly, because if the Eagles are going to be competitive it should be a high scoring game. I am not sure if Philly has enough offense to make this one close, but they should be able to score and that means a high scoring game that goes over the total.

Eagles vs. Saints Pick: Eagles -9 and Over 56 at BetDSI
Eagles vs. Saints Score Prediction: Saints 38, Eagles 24

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Top Props - Vikings vs. Bears
November 16, 2018
By BetDSI

by Tom Wilkinson

NFL Betting Props – Vikings vs. Bears

The Minnesota Vikings visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday night on NBC in a matchup between the top two teams in the NFC North. The Vikings are a half game behind the Bears in the division so this is a huge game for Minnesota, especially since the Vikings have the Packers, Patriots and Seahawks in the next three weeks. Let’s look at some prop picks for this Week 11 matchup.

Date and Time: Sunday, November 18, 2018, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Bears -2.5, O/U 45
Vikings vs. Bears TV Coverage: NBC

Total Points Props
Minnesota 21.5
Chicago 23.5

The oddsmakers look to have the point total on these two teams right on the money considering the total on the game is 45. I would lean under on the Bears though, as Minnesota’s defense has continued to improve this season and they are second in the NFL in red zone defense.

First Team to Score
Minnesota -105
Chicago -125

This is pretty much a coin flip, although I would probably lean to Minnesota simply because I think they are going to win the game.

Will Either Team Score in first 6.5 minutes?
Yes -115
No -115

I don’t see any value this week in playing this prop either way, so I will pass.

First Scoring Play
Vikings Field Goal +325
Vikings TD Pass +400
Vikings TD Run +600
Vikings Any Other TD +2500
Vikings Safety +5000
Bears Field Goal +275
Bears TD Pass +300
Bears TD Run +600
Bears Any Other TD +4000
Bears Safety +5000

Sometimes with this prop I really like the value on the TD pass, but that is not the case this week. Both the Vikings and the Bears have very good defenses and I think the first score of the game will be a field goal. The Vikings have the better kicker in Dan Bailey, so I lean a little bit to taking the Vikings at +300. I think you could bet both teams to score the field goal in this prop as you get about 3-1 on each.

First Score of Game
Touchdown -160
Field Goal or Safety +130

If you think the first score of the game is going to be a field goal then you are probably better off betting both teams in the previous prop rather than this prop at +130.

Longest TD of Game - 41.5 Yards
Under -115
Over -115

I like the over on this prop, as both teams have big play threats. The Vikings have two talented receivers in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen and both are capable of beating the Bears deep. The Bears also have some big play threats including Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen.

Quarterback Props

While the Vikings and Bears both have very good defenses, they are somewhat susceptible to the pass. The Vikings rank 12th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, while the Bears are 13th. I don’t expect the totals on Cousins and Trubisky to be that high considering the reputation of both defenses, so I think there is some value in taking both quarterbacks over their yardage totals.

Vikings vs. Bears Props Picks

I think there are a number of props worth playing on this Sunday night contest. I think there is definite value in taking the first score of the game to be a Minnesota field goal at odds of +300. I also think there is some value in taking the over on the longest touchdown of the game. Both Minnesota and Chicago have big play threats and I expect at least one long touchdown in his game.

And as I previously noted, if you are going to have success against these two defenses it is through the air, so there should be some value in taking both of these quarterbacks over their yardage totals. I also don’t want to forget about the Minnesota point total, as I think the Vikings will win this game and that should mean they go over their point total of 21.5.

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Week 11 Best Bets - Teasers
November 16, 2018
By BetOnline.ag

NFL Week 11 Exotic Betting Options

Last week's teaser play on the Browns/Bengals combo might have been my third straight loser (which sucks), but the silver lining there was at least it wasn't the third straight by a half-point. Cincinnati were blown out of their home game against the Saints rather early and it didn't even really matter that Cleveland grabbed the outright lead for good just before halftime in their win over the Falcons.

Most times it's easier to liberate yourself from those unquestioned losing plays because you simply chalk it up to a bad play/read on the game and move forward in trying to get better. There's no reminiscing about a blown catch or call that didn't go your way, and that makes it a lot easier to move on to the next week.

That being said, three straight weeks of losing these teaser plays is completely unacceptable, so hopefully I can get back in the win column with this week's selection:

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Week 11: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet
Tennessee Titans (+8.5) – LA Chargers (pick'em)

Both the Titans and Chargers are matched up in huge divisional games this weekend as Tennessee visits the Colts in what is a huge game for both sides regarding a division crown, while the Chargers host the Broncos in L.A's attempt to keep pace with the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams do fit as quality teaser plays based on the numbers alone – teasing Tennessee up through +3 and +7 while doing the reverse with the Chargers – but that's not the only reason why these two teams made the card this week.

Tennessee has found a groove of late and more specifically a strong identity they are willing to embrace. The Titans are a physical, defensive-minded football team that prefers to go out there and punch you in the mouth on both sides of the ball. That methodology worked great against the Patriots a week ago, and if it wasn't for a failed two-pt attempt over in London four weeks ago, Tennessee would be rolling into this week on a three-game winning streak.

In fact, it was HC Mike Vrabel's decision to go for two in London – one he supposedly made prior to that final drive starting – that could possibly be the turning point for the Titans this year. QB Marcus Mariota has become more assertive in what plays he wants to run, but his decision-making on the field with audibles, where to throw the ball, and when to take off and run. Tennessee's had their two highest scoring outputs because of it the past two weeks and the more positive results they experience, the more that confidence will grow.

Indianapolis is on a roll themselves having climbed back into the AFC South picture with three straight wins, but they have a much similar identity to the Patriots (great QB supported by suspect running game) and have crumbled in physical matchups before. Furthermore, the Colts have beaten Buffalo, Oakland, and Jacksonville during this three-game stretch.

Those three squads have a combined 7-21 SU record this year, and while you can't fault Indy for taking care of business relative to the schedule they've got, that doesn't exactly inspire too much confidence in backing them in a spot like this, especially when the line is teased up above a TD.

I wouldn't put it past the Titans to dominate this game from start to finish in getting the outright victory, their 0-9 SU record vs QB Andrew Luck be damned. But in a division game with a steep uphill climb ahead for the loser in all likelihood, this game should be decided by three or four points when all is said and done and it's why I believe they are a great teaser play this week.

Moving over to the Chargers game, teasing them down to a pick'em means we get a red-hot squad trying to simply extend their winning streak to seven games. L.A would love to hunt down KC for the AFC West crown, but they can only control what they can control, and going 8-2 SU with a win this week would put them in great position for an AFC Wild Card berth at worst.

Denver's a team that's about ready to give up on the year with another loss or two, and in each of their three previous road games this year where they've entered as the underdog, they've lost outright by at least seven points each time (12.6 margin of defeat on average).

Taking it a step further, the home side in this rivalry has won outright in each of the past five meetings between the two teams. 2018 may finally be the year the Chargers put it all together and make a serious run at a Super Bowl appearance for QB Phillip Rivers, and to do that, it's these types of games they've absolutely got to win.

Laying the full TD is going to be a concern for many for a variety of reasons (division game, Denver's last three losses overall came by 7 or fewer points, etc), but at a pick'em price tag, the Chargers become much more attractive.

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Value Plays - Week 11
November 16, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 11 Value Plays of the Week

Week 11 of the NFL season got off to a thrilling start on Thursday night, with the Seattle Seahawks coming from behind to steal a win from the Green Bay Packers, who are now 0-5 on the road. We now get to jump ahead to the Sunday games to see where we can find some value plays.

It’s getting tougher and tougher to make picks with each passing week, as desperation and panic leads teams to raise their game in hopes of keeping their playoff hopes alive. With that in mind, let’s see if we can nail down 4 games that might deliver winning bets with all the odds, props and futures offered by YouWager.eu.

Dallas Cowboys (+155) at Atlanta Falcons (-175)

The Dallas Cowboys kept their playoff hopes alive last week with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles and now the Falcons need the same sort of outcome here to stay in the postseason hunt. The Falcons are coming off a brutal road loss to the Cleveland Browns and are now sitting a game below .500.

While neither of these teams are playing great football this season, both are still in the playoff hunt because of how tight things are in the NFC. Both are going to come out swinging as they look for the win, which is why I think this one goes over the 48 ½ points at odds of -110.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+190) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-230)

With Le'Veon Bell now officially deciding to sit out the entire season, the Steelers can now turn their full attention to what’s happening on the field as opposed to worrying about events off it. That’s not to say that their play has been affected, though, as this is a team on a solid run of form right now, as they come into this one on a 5-game winning streak.

The Jaguars are going the other way and are looking at missing out on the playoffs after getting all the way to the AFC Conference Championship last season. The Steelers are a 5-point home favorite here, a spread I think they cover at odds of -110.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+105) at New York Giants (-125)

After looking through all the games in search of an underdog pick, I finally landed on this one. Neither of these teams are playing particularly good football right now, but the Bucs are currently putting up about 100 more yards per game of offense than the Giants. While New York are coming off a win last week in San Francisco, they are still winless at home this season, going 0-4 in their own building.

The Buccaneers have not been very good in the Big Apple, but they are 2-2 on the road this season. I am taking Tampa to win SU at odds of +105.

Kansas City Chiefs (+158) at Los Angeles Rams (-180)

In case you haven’t been paying attention, let me tell you that these are arguably the two best offenses in the league this season. I think we are in for a real treat on Monday night, as I expect the Chiefs and the Rams to stand toe to toe and get into an offensive battle.

The bookies seem to agree, as the point total for this one is in at a very lofty 63 1/2/ I think they could have added more points to that number and still have the OVER look like the value play here.

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Eagles try to slow streaking Saints
November 16, 2018
By STATS LLC Editorial

The defending Super Bowl champions are facing an uphill climb just to make the playoffs -- and the steepest test awaits this weekend.

The Philadelphia Eagles are two games out of first place in the NFC East, have yet to record back-to-back wins this season and now must face the league's hottest team when they visit the high-powered New Orleans Saints on Sunday night.

While the Eagles (4-5) were absorbing another costly loss at home in Sunday's 27-20 setback to division rival Dallas, the Saints (8-1) extended their winning streak to eight games by rolling up a season-high point total in a 51-14 mauling at the Cincinnati Bengals.

Guided by quarterback Drew Brees, New Orleans is the NFL's top-scoring team at 36.7 points per game and has averaged 42 points in its last three victories, including a 45-35 win over the previously unbeaten Los Angeles Rams.

Brees has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is tied for the NFL lead with 78 receptions while running back Alvin Kamara has rushed for 11 touchdowns to go with four receiving scores. Mark Ingram II provides a 1-2 punch in the backfield with Kamara.

"We're hoping to have balance," Saints head coach Sean Payton said. "I think our offensive line has played well. We've been consistent rushing the football. I feel like Drew is playing at a high level and the younger players are getting up to speed that are in roles whether they're at receiver, running back, tight end.

"We have to keep looking to try to improve in the areas we feel like we've struggled, and quite honestly some of our third-down numbers haven't been good. Some of our red-zone numbers haven't been good. But I think that having that ability to rush or pass is something that can help."

That pass-rush combination is something that has eluded Philadelphia. With Alshon Jeffery and recently acquired Golden Tate at wide receiver to go along with tight end Zach Ertz, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has the weapons to keep pace with Brees and Co.

However, the ground game has struggled since losing starting running back Jay Ajayi to a season-ending injury and Philadelphia has been unable to get untracked offensively, particularly early in games. The Eagles have scored only 21 first-quarter points this season, while New Orleans has scored on its opening possession six times in nine games.

"Obviously we realize they, as of late, have gotten up on teams early," said Wentz. "We have a ton of confidence in our defense but that's a heck of an offense over there. We don't try to look too much into that because at the end of the day we have high expectations and standards on the offensive side of the ball.

"We realize we have some things we've got to clean up. ... We realize we may have to score but again we have a lot of confidence in our defense and we're excited to see how we match up."

Wentz may be better off attacking New Orleans' defense through the air. The Saints rank No. 1 in the league in run defense (80.1 yards), partly due to their ability to play with a lead, but ranked 31st against the pass (296.1 yards).

Ertz set season highs in last week's loss to the Cowboys with 14 receptions for 145 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It marked the fourth 100-yard game of the season for Ertz, but Philadelphia has lost all four of them.

"I think you can get too dialed in on anybody within a game but at the end of the day, are we having success or not is kind of how you measure that," said Wentz. "Everyone knows Zach knows his abilities out there and knows he's a tough cover for a corner or a safety or whoever they put on him. So you know, we trust him to make plays and get open and he's done a great job of that."

Philadelphia is expected to be without both its starting cornerbacks against Brees, who is having a season for the ages. Brees is completing 77.3 percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns to one interception. He has been sacked just nine times because he gets the ball out of his hand so quickly.

"I looked at his interception reel," said Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. "That was one. Didn't take us long to get through the sack and interception reel. His incompletions, didn't take us long to get through those. I mean, he's playing at an insane level right now."

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 11
November 17, 2018
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Week 9 | Week 10

Week 11

1) Kansas City +3.5 (1332)
2) Minnesota +2.5 (1283)
3) Carolina -4 (920)
4) Houston -3 (890)
5) Indianapolis -2 (841)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 11 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Green Bay (+2.5) 131 Seattle (-2.5) 475
Carolina (-4) 920 Detroit (+4) 282
Dallas (+3.5) 449 Atlanta (-3.5) 792
Cincinnati (+6.5) 665 Baltimore (-6.5) 163
Minnesota (+2.5) 1283 Chicago (-2.5) 608
Philadelphia (+8.5) 823 New Orleans (-8.5) 455
Tennessee (+2) 543 Indianapolis (-2) 841
Houston (-3) 890 Washington (+3) 490
Tampa Bay (+1.5) 251 N.Y. Giants (-1.5) 631
Denver (+7) 539 L.A. Chargers (-7) 568
Oakland (+5.5) 284 Arizona (-5.5) 462
Pittsburgh -5.5) 696 Jacksonville (+5.5) 549
Kansas City (+3.5) 1332 L.A. Rams (-3.5) 333

Consensus Results - 2017 | 2016

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 3-2 7-8 47%
4 3-2 10-10 50%
5 1-4 11-14 44%
6 1-4 12-18 40%
7 4-1 16-19 46%
8 5-0 21-19 53%
9 5-0 26-19 58%
10 2-3 28-22 56%

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Gridiron Angles - Week 11
November 17, 2018
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bengals are 11-0-1 ATS (5.3 ppg) since Dec 14, 2008 as a dog off a game as a dog of more than three points where they gained no more than 18 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since Oct 22, 2006 as a road favorite coming off a home win where they allowed at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-9 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 coming off a home win where Marcus Mariota completed at least 60% of his passes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Colts are 0-11 OU (-10.4 ppg) since Nov 23, 2014 at home coming off a game with at least 250 passing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 15-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 on the road coming off a loss where they allowed at least 24 points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 0-10 ATS (-8.05 ppg) off a doubledigit road loss in which their opponent had more punts than third downs converted.