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Books win again in Week 11
November 19, 2018
By Micah Roberts

Nevada sports books have things back to normal now. Everything cycles around back to them. The public may have a good week or two during the 17 weeks on the NFL betting season, but the books will always have the edge and they proved it in resounding fashion Sunday in Week 11 action.

"It was the best day of the season for us, said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "We did really well to straight bets with about 50 percent of our win aided by some large wagers. Teasers went well also."

Favorites would go just 3-6-2 ATS with five of the underdogs winning outright. That's bad news for favorite money-line parlay bettors.

Atlantis Reno sports book director Marc Nelson said his shop held just over 30 percent on the day which is absolutely incredible. He said the Cowboys, Saints and Broncos were the best results and noted that they didn't lose a single game on the day. Not one loser.

It was like that all over the state.

"The best game for us was the Lions and the worst was the Giants," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "It was a very good day. The Jags covering was also good."

Simbal was quick to point out he had the Saints one point better than the Rams before the Eagles got crushed. I had asked several bookmakers who they had rated higher, the Rams or the Saints. The Rams had been No. 1 in almost everyone's ratings for most of the season, but after they went on a 1-6 ATS run and the defense was gashed the past three weeks, the Saints also got better. On Sunday, they demolished the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, 45-7, the fifth time this season the Saints have scored 40 points or more.

"We had some large Eagles wagers that pushed us from +8.5 to +7 despite action on the Saints in parlays and teasers," Stoneback said.

It was supposed to be a good spot for Eagles, but the Bengals put up a better fight last week in the Saints 51-14 win.

These Saints are definitely looking Super and they hold the home field edge over the Rams if tied at the end of the season by virtue of the Saints 45-35 Week 9 win.

"We're a loser with the Saints in Futures," said Stoneback who has the Saints 5-to-2 after opening them 18-to-1. "The bulk of our risk has come from Mississippi where Saints action has been heavy.

"When we opened the Saints to win the Super Bowl in Mississippi they were 15-to-1 and when we quickly moved to 3-to-1 along the way they still kept betting the Saints."

The Rams are now 13-to-5 to win the Super Bowl and the Saints are Even money to win the NFC now.

Brad Bryant runs the Golden Nugget sports book in Biloxi and he said they won Sunday but gave back a lot with the Saints, which is becoming hugely popular wager down there. Why not? The Saints have now won nine straight and covered the past eight.

"Yeah, I think they're the best," said Bryant of the Saints rating. "The Drew Brees/Sean Payton combo is unbeatable right now."

The first year of sports books down south has been flooded with Saints action on Sunday's and Alabama action on Saturday's. But they're still winning despite.

The biggest upset Sunday was the Broncos' 23-22 win as 7-point underdogs at the Chargers, where the stands in Carson, CA were colored with thousands of orange shirts. The Chargers have the worst home-field edge in the NFL. The Chargers had 14 penalties and Broncos QB Case Keenum didn't throw an interception and came alive with big throws in the fourth quarter to take the lead. The win paid out +260 on the money-line and also destroyed one of the more popular teaser selections of the day. The Chargers-Saints teaser was the most common.

And how about the Bears' 25-20 home win against the Vikings (+3) Sunday night. The game wasn't even as close as the score indicates, but the late Vikings TD sent the game Over 44 total points. It was the Bears signature win of the season and now have some breathing space in the NFC North where they lead with a 7-3 record. The Bears are definitely for real and gaining confidence weekly. They've now won and covered their last four games. The book fared decently with the outcome because the Vikings were a popular wager.

Back to the drawing board for the bettors, but this is a good week for the public beginning with Thanksgiving Day where there are three NFL games that always present difficulties for the house because there are only three games, and six options with the totals. Bettors can't hurt themselves by being greedy. If bettors get the side and total of the first game, bookmakers will be sweating big time because risk not only carries over into the next two games Thursday but also into Friday and Saturday's college games and then Sunday. It's a four day betting weekend full of booby-traps for the bookmakers.

Have a great Thanksgiving, my friends.

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Hot & Not Report
November 19, 2018
By YouWager.eu

Who's Hot and Who's Not

Week of November 19th

Last week's focus on the teams in two of the divisions from the AFC brought mixed results in Week 11 as we did see a few of those division rivals square off with one another.

Over in the AFC South, the teams not named Jacksonville did as bad as they possibly could against the spread (1-2) with Tennessee and Indy squaring off. The Jaguars themselves continued to find ways to lose games this year as they coughed up a double-digit 4th quarter lead to Pittsburgh, effectively ending the Jags season and adding even more gun powder to an already explosive locker room waiting to commence with their mutiny.

The AFC North teams not named Pittsburgh that had been struggling squared off as well with the Bengals and Ravens meeting for the 2nd time this season. Baltimore gave QB Lamar Jackson his first career start and he and the entire offense for Baltimore just imposed their will and ran the ball (54 times) down the Bengals throat. A 4-1 SU start for the Bengals has long been forgotten, and I know Bengals fans out there hope that they finally see HC Marvin Lewis' head on the chopping block sooner than later rather than always passing the buck off on his co-ordinators.

This week I'm shifting my attention over to one specific NFC division where two specific teams are going in vastly different directions. On the surface it feels a bit like pointing out the obvious, but eventually with teams on extended good/bad runs like these two are, you've got to ask yourself if, and when the point spread numbers have caught up with them and it's time to go the other way. The answer to that question may or may not come this week, but it's something you should strongly consider when breaking down their respective games.

Who's Hot

New Orleans Saints – 9-0 SU (8-0 ATS last eight)

It's obvious to anyone even slightly involved in NFL betting that the Saints have been the hottest team in the league for weeks now, so it's not like I'm uncovering anything interesting there. However, it's becoming clear that the oddsmakers are sick of getting beaten by the Saints each and every week as it's been a couple of weeks now where their point spread lines have spiked.

After starting their 8-0 ATS run with an 43-37 OT win in Atlanta as +1.5 underdogs, the Saints spent the next five weeks being priced in the +3 to -5.5 range. It was only their MNF home game against Washington – where Drew Brees broke the passing yards record – that had the Saints lined as more than basically a FG favorite, and at the time those lines were loaded with value. They were +2.5 in a game @ Baltimore (24-23 win), -2.5 @ Minnesota the following week (30-20 win) and closed at +1.5 at home against the Rams a few weeks ago (45-35 win). It was that win over the Rams that sparked a dramatic shift into how the Saints started to get priced though, and in the two games since it still hasn't mattered.

After beating LA, the Saints – in a natural letdown spot off that huge win – were all of a sudden laying six points on the road against a Bengals team that had two weeks to prepare. Granted, the Bengals defense has been atrocious for the better part of six weeks now and Brees and company tore them to shreds in the 51-14 win. Result aside, to have New Orleans laying -6 on the road after they hadn't been bigger than -3.5 road favorites all year (@ NY Giants) was quite the shift and it still proved to be nowhere near enough.

Then this past week, New Orleans was bet up all the way to -9 at home against the struggling defending champs from Philly, and while Philly did receive some support late to close that line at -7, the game was decided very early in another blowout win for New Orleans (48-7). To see the Eagles get the support they did late to push that line down to a TD suggests that many are starting to see value in fading New Orleans at these inflated prices, yet so far, it still hasn't mattered.

And now we get the cycle going back to where it began, with a huge NFC South division game against the Falcons. The Saints are now on a short week in hosting Atlanta on TNF on Thanksgiving and have been pegged as a -13 favorite currently. It's getting to the point that tf the Saints were a traditional stock on Wall Street, there would be plenty of talk about them being in “bubble” territory and days away from bursting at these extreme valuations. But this is football and the eye test basically tells everyone it's impossible to step in front of New Orleans now and the oddsmakers are playing off that perception with these huge lines.

After all, this is an Atlanta team that took the Saints to OT way back at the beginning of this run and at 4-6 SU entering Week 12 are left fighting for their season and playoff possibilities this week. Atlanta's defense has been ravaged by injuries for most of the year, but offensively they won't be scared to go toe-to-toe with New Orleans on Thursday and let the chips fall where they may.

So before you do settle in to watch what should be a great nightcap to your Thanksgiving festivities on Thursday, you've got to ask yourself, do you believe this is a fair line to be backing New Orleans at?

Who's Not

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1-7 SU (1-6-1 ATS)

On the flip side of the coin in the NFC South are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are a team that can't seemingly get out of their own way most times as they continually turn the ball over each week, putting their defense in brutal scenarios and coming up just short quite often. Their lone SU win over that eight-game stretch was an OT win over the Browns, and their lone ATS win was a backdoor cover against the aforementioned Bengals who I've already touched on in this piece.

What's probably the most maddening to bettors about Tampa Bay is the fact that statistically the numbers are there for them to have much better results than they've showed. Granted, you can't handicap turnovers and that's been the Bucs biggest issue this year, but they rank 4th in the NFL in terms of yards per play (6.7), a number that's ahead of New Orleans (6.4) of all teams, and trailing only the Chargers, Rams and Chiefs. Those four teams are going to be a combined 35-7 SU entering Week 12, and yet here are the Bucs at 3-7 SU and on money-burning 1-6-1 ATS run with both the ATS win and push coming as backdoor “covers” late.

Tampa Bay is like the bizzaro-world Saints in that regard as oddsmakers know the eye test/perception have the majority of bettors not needing too many reasons to fade the Bucs, but statistically the numbers are there of an elite offense with a suspect defense – aka the New Orleans Saints. With statistical models being the basis for all initial point spreads put out there, oddsmakers keep putting out short numbers with the Bucs and keep getting burned by their inability to hold onto the ball (-23 turnover margin). It's gotten to the point where you can't even say that the turnovers will eventually even themselves out in Tampa's case because it's been 10 weeks of action now and it only gets worse every week.

Yet, as the Bucs host a rested San Francisco team in Week 12, the current line of -3.5 on Tampa is likely going to see more action against it than on it because of how bad the Bucs have looked the past two months. That makes the Bucs are a case in my eyes where their ATS records should flip around sooner rather than later as long as the offense can continue moving the ball like they have. They continue to be undervalued from a numbers perspective because of the turnovers and poor ATS run, and while it may not come this week as home favorites, with games against Carolina, New Orleans, and Baltimore upcoming, this Tampa team should be catching plenty of points to be worth serious consideration against the spread. They've just got to find a way to protect the ball.

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More later

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Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 11 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-4
Against the Spread 3-6-3

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-5
Against the Spread 5-4-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 102-55-2
Against the Spread 70-83-6

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 94-64-2
Against the Spread 74-79-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 78-81

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Broncos (+7, ML +280) at Chargers, 23-22
Raiders (+4.5, ML +180) at Cardinals, 23-21
Lions (+4, ML +180) vs. Panthers, 20-19
Cowboys (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 22-19

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-7) vs. Eagles, 48-7

Marching Saints

-- The New Orleans Saints treated the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints by a 48-7 score, the worst loss by the Eagles this season. It was also the worst loss in NFL history by a defending champ, too. The Saints are looking championship caliber lately, winning nine straight since an inexplicable opening-day loss to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they have covered eight in a row dating back to Week 2. They have also rolled up 30 or more points in four straight, and seven of the past eight contests.

Bronco Bucks

-- The Los Angeles Chargers had been on quite the roll, but an old friend dropped them down a peg. The rival Denver Broncos caught the Bolts napping late, rallying for a 23-22 victory. It snapped a six-game win streak for the Broncos dating back to Sept. 23 against the crosstown Los Angeles Rams, and it was their first loss of the season straight-up against a losing team. The 'under' has connected in four in a row for the Bolts. As far as the Broncos, they were the biggest 'dog on the board on Sunday, and they won for just the second time in the past eight outings since a 2-0 SU start. Denver is suddenly a favorite at the betting window, going 4-1 ATS over the past five.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board (57) was the Philadelphia-New Orleans battle, but the Eagles killed 'over' tickets with a paltry seven points. The Saints did their best to help bettors, but the 'under' ended up just coming in. The second-highest total (54) on the board was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New York Giants, and the Bucs were back to their high-scoring and many point allowing ways after a defensive moment last weekend. The 'over' is now 8-2 in 10 games overall for the Bucs, including a perfect 6-0 on the road.

-- On Thursday night, the Green Bay Packers-Seattle Seahawks (49.5) battle snuck over the total, as did Sunday's primetime battle between the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (44). In fact, if ESPN's Scott Van Pelt did a "Bad Beats" segment for the NFL, the SNF game would definitely be featured. Minnesota scored a touchdown with :48 remaining in regulation to turn a sure 'under' into an 'over' result, even so barely.

-- The lowest total on the board was the battle between the Oakland Raiders-Arizona Cardinals (41), and a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation gave the Raiders a 23-21 win, changing a push at most shops into an over result. The other game with a total of 41, the Houston Texans-Washington Redskins ironically ended up with a 23-21 score, too.

-- This week saw just four games on Sunday with a total over 50, and only one hit the 'over'. That was the Bucs-Giants game. The Monday night battle between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Rams (63) might close with the highest total ever.

-- The 'over' went 2-0 in the first two primetime games in Week 11, with the Monday night game between the Chiefs-Rams (63) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 18-15 (54.5%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (ankle) was forced out of Sunday's loss against the Giants and he was unable to return.

-- Lions RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) checked out of Sunday's win against the Panthers with what is believed to be a knee sprain, although he'll have an MRI on Monday just to be certain.

-- Raiders WR Brandon LaFell (Achilles') suffered a ruptured Achilles' tendon in the win against the Cardinals and he is done for the season.

-- Redskins QB Alex Smith (leg) broke both his fibula and tibia in Sunday's 23-21 loss against the Texans and he is obviously out for the season.

-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) checked out of Sunday's loss in Indianapolis and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Bears look to carve up the Lions on Thanksgiving Day in Motown. Chicago has covered four in a row inside the division, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven against teams with a losing record. They're also 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 in the month of November. However, Chicago is a dismal 1-6 ATS in their past seven appearances on Thursday. The Lions have posted a 5-2 ATS mark across their past seven appearances on Thursday. The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings, including a 34-22 win against the Lions on Nov. 11 in Chitown. However, the Bears are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Detroit.

-- The Redskins enter 5-1 ATS in the past six overall, and they're 16-5 ATS in the past 21 following a straight-up loss. But they will have QB Colt McCoy under center after Smith's season-ending injury. The Cowboys enter 4-11 ATS in the past 15 against winning teams, and 2-8 ATS in the past 10 appearances on Thursday. However, they're 5-1 ATS in the past six inside the division. They have struggled against the 'Skins, though, going just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 at home vs. Washington. The road team is 2-7 ATS in the past nine meetings, and the underdog is an impressive 31-10 ATS in the past 41 meetings.

-- The Falcons limp into the dome just 2-6 ATS in the past eight overall and 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings. The Saints have covered eight in a row, they're 14-6 ATS in the past 20 inside the division and they're 11-5 ATS in the past 16 against losing squads. Atlanta is a dismal 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to the Crescent City, too.

-- The Browns head down I-71 to the Queen City to battle the Bengals. Cleveland is just 4-11-1 ATS in the past 16 road games, and 5-15-1 ATS in the past 21 divisional games. The Bengals have covered five of the past six inside the division, including a straight-up loss but road cover against the Ravens in Week 11. The favorite has covered six in a row in this series, and Cleveland has failed to cover seven consecutive meetings.

-- The Giants enter 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against losing teams, but just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. New York has covered four in a row on the road, however. The Eagles are just 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall, and 0-4 ATS in the past four games at home. Philly could get well at home, however, as the Giants are just 6-14-1 ATS in the past 21 against the Eagles. The 'over' has hit in six straight meetings, too.

-- For whatever reason, the Jets have had the number of the Patriots lately. New England is just 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to New Jersey. The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings, too.

-- The Packers head to Minnesota with a 1-5-1 ATS mark over the past seven on the road, and they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five divisional games. The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in the past seven home meetings with their rivals. The under is also a perfect 4-0 in the past four meetings in this series.

-- The Titans and Texans do battle on Monday night deep in the heart of Texas. Tennessee loves Monday Night Football, covering in seven straight MNF battles. They're also 6-1 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Texans aren't as big a fan of MNF, going 2-10 ATS in their past 12 appearances. The 'under' is 6-0 in Tennessee's past six inside the division, while the under is 5-2 in Houston's past seven vs. AFC South foes.

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Saints' opening odds draw quick cash in NFL Week 12 contest vs. Falcons
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees has New Orleans on a nine-game SU and eight-game ATS streak, with Atlanta up next on Thanksgiving night. The Saints opened 12-point home favorites and were quickly bet up to 13.

Week 12 of the NFL season includes a trio of Thanksgiving games to supplement your holiday feast. We check in on the opening lines and early action for two Turkey Day pairings and two other noteworthy matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-12)

New Orleans is both the immovable object and the unstoppable force, a winner of nine in a row SU and eight consecutive ATS. In Week 11, the Saints (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) steamrolled defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia 48-7 as 7-point home favorites.

Like New Orleans, Atlanta was in the playoffs last season, but Dan Quinn’s troops are going to need a big turnaround to get back there this season. The Falcons (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) rallied to tie Dallas at 19 late in the fourth quarter, but lost on a last-second field goal 22-19 as 3.5-point home faves in Week 11.

“We opened the Saints -12, and we have already seen the number get pushed up to -13,” Murray said of very early action on this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff Thanksgiving night. “The public will be hammering the Saints in this game. If both favorites win in the early games, there will be a ton of parlay liability to New Orleans on Thanksgiving night, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number go even higher.”

Later Sunday evening, the line was down a tick to 12.5.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Dallas will play its traditional home game on Thanksgiving in a 4:30 p.m. ET start, in pursuit of its third straight victory. The Cowboys (5-5 SU and ATS) got the aforementioned last-second field goal to top Atlanta 22-19 as 3.5-point road underdogs in Week 11.

Washington remains in first place in the NFC East, but is hardly comfortable in that spot. The Redskins (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) have lost two of their last three, including a 23-21 Week 11 setback to Houston as 3-point home pups.

“There has been some early money on the Redskins +7.5, but we aren’t too worried about it, as we expect there to be a ton of support for the Cowboys in this game,” Murray said. “The book will need Washington by kickoff.”

In fact, less than an hour after posting this game Sunday evening, The SuperBook moved Dallas to -8.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Carolina was rolling along nicely at 6-2 SU, then got hit with back-to-back road losses the past two weeks. In Week 11, the Panthers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) were laying 4 points at Detroit and tumbled outright 20-19.

Seattle ended a two-game skid in Week 10 to get to .500 and keep itself on the fringe of the NFC playoff picture. The Seahawks (5-5 SU, 5-3-2 ATS) trailed Green Bay most of the way in the Week 11 Thursday nighter, but came away with a 27-24 victory to push as 3-point home faves.

Murray said this 1 p.m. ET Sunday tilt drew action on both sides shortly after posting.

“Right away, we took money on the Panthers -3 and moved to -3 (-120), at which point more money showed up,” Murray said, noting the number then moved to 3.5. “A guy took Seahawks +3.5 right away for $15,000, and we went back to 3. But we weren’t there long, because the market was going up, so we moved to 3.5.

“Seattle is off a good win over the Packers and will have three extra days to prepare for this game.”

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

Green Bay has dropped three of its last four games to fall into must-win mode for the Week 12 Sunday night matchup. The Packers (4-5-1 SU and ATS) led much of the way at Seattle in the Week 11 Thursday nighter, but came up short 27-24 as 3-point road ‘dogs.

Minnesota couldn’t take advantage of an opportunity to move into first place in the NFC North. Playing in the Week 11 Sunday nighter, the Vikings (5-4-1 SU and ATS) fell short at Chicago 25-20 catching 2.5 points.

“We opened it Vikings -4.5 and haven’t seen any money either way,” Murray said, noting the line was taken off the board once the Vikes-Bears game kicked off, and it will repost Monday morning. “This number may change a lot, depending on the outcome of that game.”

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Hot & Not Report


Week of November 19th

Last week's focus on the teams in two of the divisions from the AFC brought mixed results in Week 11 as we did see a few of those division rivals square off with one another.

Over in the AFC South, the teams not named Jacksonville did as bad as they possibly could against the spread (1-2) with Tennessee and Indy squaring off. The Jaguars themselves continued to find ways to lose games this year as they coughed up a double-digit 4th quarter lead to Pittsburgh, effectively ending the Jags season and adding even more gun powder to an already explosive locker room waiting to commence with their mutiny.

The AFC North teams not named Pittsburgh that had been struggling squared off as well with the Bengals and Ravens meeting for the 2nd time this season. Baltimore gave QB Lamar Jackson his first career start and he and the entire offense for Baltimore just imposed their will and ran the ball (54 times) down the Bengals throat. A 4-1 SU start for the Bengals has long been forgotten, and I know Bengals fans out there hope that they finally see HC Marvin Lewis' head on the chopping block sooner than later rather than always passing the buck off on his co-ordinators.

This week I'm shifting my attention over to one specific NFC division where two specific teams are going in vastly different directions. On the surface it feels a bit like pointing out the obvious, but eventually with teams on extended good/bad runs like these two are, you've got to ask yourself if, and when the point spread numbers have caught up with them and it's time to go the other way. The answer to that question may or may not come this week, but it's something you should strongly consider when breaking down their respective games.

Who's Hot

New Orleans Saints – 9-0 SU (8-0 ATS last eight)

It's obvious to anyone even slightly involved in NFL betting that the Saints have been the hottest team in the league for weeks now, so it's not like I'm uncovering anything interesting there. However, it's becoming clear that the oddsmakers are sick of getting beaten by the Saints each and every week as it's been a couple of weeks now where their point spread lines have spiked.

After starting their 8-0 ATS run with an 43-37 OT win in Atlanta as +1.5 underdogs, the Saints spent the next five weeks being priced in the +3 to -5.5 range. It was only their MNF home game against Washington – where Drew Brees broke the passing yards record – that had the Saints lined as more than basically a FG favorite, and at the time those lines were loaded with value. They were +2.5 in a game @ Baltimore (24-23 win), -2.5 @ Minnesota the following week (30-20 win) and closed at +1.5 at home against the Rams a few weeks ago (45-35 win). It was that win over the Rams that sparked a dramatic shift into how the Saints started to get priced though, and in the two games since it still hasn't mattered.

After beating LA, the Saints – in a natural letdown spot off that huge win – were all of a sudden laying six points on the road against a Bengals team that had two weeks to prepare. Granted, the Bengals defense has been atrocious for the better part of six weeks now and Brees and company tore them to shreds in the 51-14 win. Result aside, to have New Orleans laying -6 on the road after they hadn't been bigger than -3.5 road favorites all year (@ NY Giants) was quite the shift and it still proved to be nowhere near enough.

Then this past week, New Orleans was bet up all the way to -9 at home against the struggling defending champs from Philly, and while Philly did receive some support late to close that line at -7, the game was decided very early in another blowout win for New Orleans (48-7). To see the Eagles get the support they did late to push that line down to a TD suggests that many are starting to see value in fading New Orleans at these inflated prices, yet so far, it still hasn't mattered.

And now we get the cycle going back to where it began, with a huge NFC South division game against the Falcons. The Saints are now on a short week in hosting Atlanta on TNF on Thanksgiving and have been pegged as a -13 favorite currently. It's getting to the point that tf the Saints were a traditional stock on Wall Street, there would be plenty of talk about them being in “bubble” territory and days away from bursting at these extreme valuations. But this is football and the eye test basically tells everyone it's impossible to step in front of New Orleans now and the oddsmakers are playing off that perception with these huge lines.

After all, this is an Atlanta team that took the Saints to OT way back at the beginning of this run and at 4-6 SU entering Week 12 are left fighting for their season and playoff possibilities this week. Atlanta's defense has been ravaged by injuries for most of the year, but offensively they won't be scared to go toe-to-toe with New Orleans on Thursday and let the chips fall where they may.

So before you do settle in to watch what should be a great nightcap to your Thanksgiving festivities on Thursday, you've got to ask yourself, do you believe this is a fair line to be backing New Orleans at?

Who's Not

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1-7 SU (1-6-1 ATS)

On the flip side of the coin in the NFC South are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are a team that can't seemingly get out of their own way most times as they continually turn the ball over each week, putting their defense in brutal scenarios and coming up just short quite often. Their lone SU win over that eight-game stretch was an OT win over the Browns, and their lone ATS win was a backdoor cover against the aforementioned Bengals who I've already touched on in this piece.

What's probably the most maddening to bettors about Tampa Bay is the fact that statistically the numbers are there for them to have much better results than they've showed. Granted, you can't handicap turnovers and that's been the Bucs biggest issue this year, but they rank 4th in the NFL in terms of yards per play (6.7), a number that's ahead of New Orleans (6.4) of all teams, and trailing only the Chargers, Rams and Chiefs. Those four teams are going to be a combined 35-7 SU entering Week 12, and yet here are the Bucs at 3-7 SU and on money-burning 1-6-1 ATS run with both the ATS win and push coming as backdoor “covers” late.

Tampa Bay is like the bizzaro-world Saints in that regard as oddsmakers know the eye test/perception have the majority of bettors not needing too many reasons to fade the Bucs, but statistically the numbers are there of an elite offense with a suspect defense – aka the New Orleans Saints. With statistical models being the basis for all initial point spreads put out there, oddsmakers keep putting out short numbers with the Bucs and keep getting burned by their inability to hold onto the ball (-23 turnover margin). It's gotten to the point where you can't even say that the turnovers will eventually even themselves out in Tampa's case because it's been 10 weeks of action now and it only gets worse every week.

Yet, as the Bucs host a rested San Francisco team in Week 12, the current line of -3.5 on Tampa is likely going to see more action against it than on it because of how bad the Bucs have looked the past two months. That makes the Bucs are a case in my eyes where their ATS records should flip around sooner rather than later as long as the offense can continue moving the ball like they have. They continue to be undervalued from a numbers perspective because of the turnovers and poor ATS run, and while it may not come this week as home favorites, with games against Carolina, New Orleans, and Baltimore upcoming, this Tampa team should be catching plenty of points to be worth serious consideration against the spread. They've just got to find a way to protect the ball.

[StarDust Bum]

Thanksgiving Day Trends

Trends for Detroit-Chicago

-- Detroit saw its four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving Day end last season with a 30-23 loss to Minnesota.

-- Prior to the 4-0 run, the Lions had lost nine straight games on Thanksgiving between 2004 and 2012.

-- Detroit has seen the 'over' go 8-3 in its last 11 games played on Thanksgiving Day.

-- Chicago played at Detroit on the holiday in the 2014 season and it was doubled-up by the Lions, 34-17.

-- The Bears have gone 3-7 all-time in the Thanksgiving Day afternoon matchups, which includes a 3-5 record versus the Lions and 0-2 against the Cowboys.

Trends for Dallas-Washington

-- Dallas owns an all-time 30-19-1 record on Thanksgiving Day.

-- The Cowboys have dropped three of their last four games on the holiday, which includes a 28-6 setback to the L.A. Chargers last season. All three of the losses came by double digits.

-- Dallas has allowed 30.3 points per game in its last six holiday matchups.

-- Five of the last eight wins by Dallas on Thanksgiving Day have come by double-digits.

-- Washington owns a 4-7 all-time record on the holiday and that includes a 31-26 loss to Dallas in the 2016 matchup.

-- The last three games between the pair on Thanksgiving have watched them combine for 57, 69 and 47 points. The 'over' cashed easily in all three games.

Thanksgiving History - Detroit
Year Matchup
2017 Minnesota 30 Detroit 23
2016 Detroit 16 Minnesota 13
2015 Detroit 45 Philadelphia 14
2014 Detroit 34 Chicago 17
2013 Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
2012 Houston 34 Detroit 31 (OT)
2011 Green Bay 27 Detroit 15
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7

Thanksgiving History - Dallas
Year Matchup
2017 Los Angeles 28 Dallas 6
2016 Washington 26 Dallas 31
2015 Carolina 33 Dallas 14
2014 Philadelphia 33 Dallas 10
2013 Dallas 31 Oakland 24
2012 Washington 38 Dallas 31
2011 Dallas 20 Miami 19
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday. November 22

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CHICAGO (7 - 3) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/22/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 51-78 ATS (-34.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
DETROIT is 140-176 ATS (-53.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (6 - 4) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/22/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (4 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (9 - 1) - 11/22/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday. November 25

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 7) at BUFFALO (3 - 7) - 11/25/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 8) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 11/25/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 143-181 ATS (-56.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 8) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 7) - 11/25/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (3 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 6) - 11/25/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 6 - 1) at CINCINNATI (5 - 5) - 11/25/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 7) - 11/25/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (5 - 5) at CAROLINA (6 - 4) - 11/25/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 161-126 ATS (+22.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 5) - 11/25/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (2 - 8) at LA CHARGERS (7 - 3) - 11/25/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 2 - 1) at DENVER (4 - 6) - 11/25/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (4 - 5 - 1) at MINNESOTA (5 - 4 - 1) - 11/25/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-45 ATS (+23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday. November 26

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TENNESSEE (5 - 5) at HOUSTON (7 - 3) - 11/26/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 116-150 ATS (-49.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
HOUSTON is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday. November 22

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Chicago is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago


Washington Redskins
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 14 games
Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Washington is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Dallas's last 19 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington


Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Atlanta



Sunday. November 25

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 3-21-1 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Cleveland's last 19 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland


Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Carolina
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle


Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Buffalo's last 20 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville


Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oakland's last 17 games
Oakland is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
Oakland is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
Baltimore is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Oakland
Baltimore is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland


San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
San Francisco is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 13 games
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
San Francisco is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of San Francisco's last 18 games when playing Tampa Bay
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 18 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing at home against San Francisco


New York Giants
NY Giants is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
NY Giants is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Giants


New England Patriots
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
New England is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 9 games on the road
New England is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
New England is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games
NY Jets is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing New England
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing New England
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
NY Jets is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against New England


Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Arizona's last 22 games on the road
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
LA Chargers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Arizona
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona


Miami Dolphins
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Miami is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 18 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Indianapolis's last 18 games at home
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
Indianapolis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing at home against Miami


Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 10-0-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Pittsburgh's last 22 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Denver
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 6-15-1 ATS in its last 22 games
Denver is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Green Bay is 4-8-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Green Bay's last 16 games
Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 17 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
Minnesota is 17-6-1 SU in its last 24 games
Minnesota is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 5-11-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay



Monday. November 26

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 12
Joe Williams

We're heading into the fourth quarter of the National Football League regular season, but many fans won't soon forget the Monday nighter between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Rams. The two teams combined for 105 points, the highest-scoring MNF game ever, and the third-highest scoring game in NFL history. It's a new day and age of football, with the games resembling video-game football, or college football. Some fans love it, old school fans hate it. Bettors are still trying to figure out what's what. The Chiefs-Rams game closed with the highest total (63) since those sorts of things have been tracked, and it was just second time a game closed over 60 points. This is the first time the total went 'over' when that high, too.

We're headed into a good time in the season, with three NFL games on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. Can you believe the holiday season is officially here? Hopefully everyone has safe travels and a great Thanksgiving with family, friends, etc. Let's get started!

Thursday, Nov. 22

Chicago Bears (-4, 45) at Detroit Lions

These teams just met on Nov. 11 in Chicago with the Bears covering a seven-point number at home, 34-22. The Bears have covered four in a row heading into this battle, but QB Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) is reportedly dealing with an injury, so that's something to watch heading into Thursday's game. The total has been on the move down, going from 46 to 45 in the matter of hours at Atlantis.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 40.5)

The Redskins lost QB Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury, as he snapped his fibula and tibia. Not only is he out for the season, but it's no certainty he'll be back. The line opened at -7 at Jerry's Nugget, moving up to -7.5. That seems to be the sweet spot right now, as Southpoint and Stratosphere opened the game at -8, and dropped it to -7.5.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13.5, 59.5)

This game opened and has stayed -13 at most shop, with Westgate SuperBook opening the game at -12, before it quickly moved up to -13. The total is on the move, too, going from 59 to 60 according to CG Technology. It's likely to eclipse the 60-point barrier, perhaps the third time in NFL history a line closed over 60. It would also be the second time in two weeks this season. Again, it's a new day, and this isn't your grandfather's NFL.

Sunday, Nov. 25

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 37.5) at Buffalo Bills

The Jaguars announced they're sticking with QB Blake Bortles. BetOnline.ag opened the game at -5, and it quickly moved to -4 within an hour, and is now down to -3 as of Tuesday overnight. That's about where the Vegas shops have this game, as a majority have the game at a field goal, with the likes of Mirage-MGM, Southpoint and Stations have the game at -3 1/2. The total has not had any movement at any of the Vegas shops as of yet, staying at 37 1/2, or the opposite of the Chiefs-Rams on Monday.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-11, 42.5)

The Raiders picked up a much-needed win last week in Arizona despite squabbling by head coach Jon Gruden and QB Derek Carr. Now, they search for a second consecutive victory on the road. If you shop around the line can vary on this one. Atlantis opened the game at -10 1/2, while Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -11 1/2, dropping down a half-point during the course of Monday. Westgate SuperBook is down from an open of -11, and briefly up to -11 1/2, down to -10 1/2 in less than 24 hours.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 55)

The Buccaneers have dropped seven of their past eight outings, and they're just 1-6-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is 8-2, too, so there might be a lot of interest in this one despite the two teams plodding along with losing records. If you're really feeling the home team, you can catch -3 at Treasure Island. BetOnline.ag opened the game at 52 1/2, and the money poured in, bumping it quickly to 54, as high as 55 1/2, and back down to 55. Look for more movement during the course of the week.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 46)

The Eagles were curb-stomped down in New Orleans, now they look to take out their frustration on the Giants. New York has actually won two in a row, showing signs of life for the first time this season. Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -5 and it moved to -6 in the matter of an afternoon. If you're still feeling the Eagles, TI still had the game at -5 as of Tuesday overnight.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 47.5)

The Browns and Bengals combined for 106 back on Nov. 28, 2004, which is the second-highest scoring game in NFL history, just ahead of Monday's Chiefs-Rams game. The teams also combined for 96 points in 2007 in the Ohio Bowl. This year Vegas isn't expecting quite as many fireworks. In fact, there has been very little movement to this point, staying put at 47 1/2 at most shops.

New England Patriots (-9.5, 46) at New York Jets

The Patriots roll into New Jersey after a bye, but this has been a tough spot for New England. The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in the past five trips to visit the Jets, and they're just 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, too, with the 'under' cashing in four straight meetings. The Strat opened the game at -8 1/2, moving to -9 1/2 in less than 24 hours.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 47.5)

The Panthers dropped the ball in Detroit, losing a 20-19 decision after going for two and failing in the final minute. Now, they return home to face the Seahawks, who travel a long way to be there. Bettors appears to be buying the Cats, especially at Westgate SuperBook, going from -3 to -3 1/2, as well as at William Hill. There just hasn't been a lot of movement yet, but most are feeling a rebound from QB Cam Newton and company at home.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 50.5)

The Dolphins are coming off a bye, and there is a little uncertainty here as QB Ryan Tannehill could be back from injury. QB Andrew Luck has tossed three or more touchdowns in seven straight games, as he is officially back. The line has settled into the neighborhood of -9 1/2 at a lot of shops, while rising to -10 at Atlantis, Coasts and Mirage-MGM, but due to Tannehill's situation the line could be on the move.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-12, 45)

This Cardinals were dumped at home by the Raiders at the gun, while the Chargers were stunned by the Broncos at home. The Bolts look to rebound and bettors have been feeling them a little. Jerry's Nugget opened the game at -11 1/2, and it's up to -12 there. Southpoint opened at -11 1/2, and it quickly rose to -12 1/2 during the course of the afternoon. The Strat, TI and Westgate also bumped up the game a half-point, as the money comes in on the Chargers early on.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 46.5) at Denver Broncos

The Steelers won a squeaker in Jacksonville at sea level, now go a mile high in Denver against a Broncos team coming off an upset win of the Chargers. There is some early movement on the home team, as Caesars/Harrah's, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget, Southpoint and the Strat opened the game at -3 1/2, but it slipped to -3. Westgate opened the game at -4 1/2, and it's now in line with everyone else at -3. People are feeling the Broncos early on.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 47.5)

The Packers-Vikings were flexed into the Sunday Night Football spot, and it's an important game in the NFC North. These teams tied in the first meeting in Green Bay in September. There has been a lot of movement early on, and bettors seem to like the Pack. Southpoint opened the game at -4 1/2, and the line quickly tumbled to -3 1/2. The same holds true at Westgate and William Hill, moving down a full point to - 3 1/2 within 24 hours, too.

Monday, Nov. 26

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6, 41.5)

The Titans and Texans have a tough act to follow after Monday's epic offensive showcase in L.A. But there will be a return to normalcy, as this game has a total 22 points less than the close of last week's game. That's insane, as more than three fewer touchdowns are expected in this AFC South showdown. BetOnline.ag is offering this game at -6, but it's one of just a few places to make the game available. QB Marcus Mariota is a question mark, and the game is OFF at many Vegas shops until there is some clarity on that situation.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 12

The Monday night game set the bar for the rest of the season, with the LA Rams outgunning the Kansas City Chiefs in a 54-51 thriller. We are not likely to see a game that entertaining for quite some time, but there are still some big match-ups on the NFL calendar for Week 12 of the season. We are now getting to the point where time is beginning to run out for the teams currently sitting below the playoff line.

There are a number of teams who are now just a loss or two away from seeing their season effectively come to an end, and we will feature a couple of those teams here. Let’s get to our picks for the best games in Week 12 of the NFL season.

Atlanta Falcons (+525) at New Orleans Saints (-700)

Thursday is Thanksgiving Day, which means that we have not one but three games on tap for the holiday. The pick of the bunch is the evening game, with the Atlanta Falcons going on the road looking to keep their season alive with a win in New Orleans.

The Falcons are 4-6 on the season and in real danger of missing the playoffs, but they are not going to get any sympathy from their division rivals. The Saints are rolling right now, winning 9 in a row and looking like the team to beat in the NFL. I like New Orleans to hit double-digit wins on Thursday.

Seattle Seahawks (+155) at Carolina Panthers (-175)

This is a game with some huge playoff implications, as there is the possibility that these two could swap positions depending on the final outcome. The Carolina Panthers have lost 2 in a row and are now down in 5th spot in the NFC.

The chances of them climbing higher seem slim given that the Saints are running away with the division. They could slip under the playoff line this weekend with a loss here, as the Seahawks are sitting just outside the playoffs in the #7 spot. I have been going back and forth on this one for a couple of days now, but I am giving the Panthers the edge at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-165) at Denver Broncos

To become a Super Bowl champion, teams need to find ways to win games where they play well below their best. The Steelers signaled their championship intent with a gritty come from behind win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11. That game looked dead and buried late in the third quarter before the Steelers offense finally got rolling.

They are going to need to be good again this Sunday against a Denver team coming off a big win over the L.A. Chargers. This will not be an easy one for Pittsburgh, but I do think they get the win.

Green Bay Packers (+160) at Minnesota Vikings (-180)

The way things are going right now, there is a very good chance that at least one of these teams will not be playing in the postseason. Neither one has lived up to preseason expectations, and both are now trailing the Chicago Bears in the NFC North.

Right now, it is the Vikings who are clinging to the final playoff spot in the NFC, with the Packers lurking just below the line. While neither team has been at their best this season, I think the Vikings are going to be very tough to beat at home.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Brandon DuBreuil


LaFELL HEADS TO IR

The Raiders placed receiver Brandon LaFell on injured reserve after Oakland’s latest No. 1 receiver suffered a torn Achilles tendon against Arizona on Sunday. Martavis Bryant will also be out in Week 12, although coach Jon Gruden said on Monday that Jordy Nelson “has a chance” to return this week as the Raiders travel to Baltimore. Seth Roberts will continue to start at receiver and Marcell Ateman will likely see his fair share of snaps in Week 12 as he posted four catches for 50 yards in LaFell’s absence on Sunday.

Oakland’s receiver situation is an absolute mess and, predictably, it has negatively affected Derek Carr’s performance. Even in a win at Arizona on Sunday, Carr threw for just 192 yards on 19-of-31 passing, though we enjoyed the performance as we got a winner with the Under on his passing yards total. Carr has now thrown for under 200 yards in three of his last five games and faces one of his toughest tests of the season in Week 12 as the Raiders travel east for an early start against a Ravens defense that ranks fifth in DVOA and most recently held Andy Dalton to 211 yards on 36 attempts. Fade Carr until further notice and take the Under on his passing yards total for Week 12.


BUCS GO BACK TO WINSTON

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to turn back to Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback after the Week 6-8 starter came on in relief of a struggling Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday and threw for 199 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on 12-of-16 passing. Winston’s efforts led a spirited Bucs comeback that fell just short, but it was good enough to earn him the start — at least for this week. Ultimately, it seems that the Bucs are just happy to ride the hot hand for the remainder of the season.

Winston was inconsistent in his three-game stint as the starter earlier this season, putting in great, average, and terrible performances (in that order). He looked solid on Sunday however, and is in a great spot this week as the Bucs host the 49ers as a 3.5-point favorite and with a game total of 55. The Bucs feature the league’s top passing offense at 361 passing yards per game and you can be sure that Winston will be airing it out all afternoon against a Niners defense that is below average in defending the pass at 21st in passing DVOA. We’re taking the Over on Winston’s passing yards total.


KJ OUT FOR THANKSGIVING

Reports out of Detroit on Monday are that running back Kerryon Johnson is out for Thursday’s Thanksgiving game against Chicago. Johnson could miss multiple games after suffering a sprained knee on Sunday against Carolina, although the injury isn’t thought to be season-ending. The Lions will go with some combination of LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick, and Zach Zenner at running back when they host the Bears.

Chicago features the top overall defense in DVOA and the second best rushing defense using the same metric, so we’re staying far away from Blount and Zenner. But Riddick has come on as of late in his pass-catching role, getting 52 percent of the snaps since he returned from injury in Week 9 and has hauled in five, six, and seven catches over that time frame. Johnson has been averaging 42.6 snaps per game over his past five and Riddick should see his fair share of those, especially as a four-point home underdog. We’re taking the Over 4.5 on his receptions total for Thursday.


JAGS STICKING WITH BORTLES

Despite his struggles, Jacksonville won’t bench Blake Bortles. At least not yet. Coach Doug Marrone confirmed that Bortles will start in Week 12 as the Jaguars head to Buffalo on Sunday. It appears, however, that Marrone is losing confidence in his starting quarterback as Bortles only attempted 18 passes in Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh. Yes, the Jags played with the lead for most of the game but there were multiple opportunities late in the game where a first down could have sealed a win and, instead of letting Bortles throw for it, the Jaguars were content to run the ball into the Steelers’ defensive wall.

Marrone seems to have figured out that his best chance of winning is by running the ball over and over again with Leonard Fournette, Carlos Hyde, and T.J. Yeldon and he did just that on Sunday with 43 rushing attempts — 28 for Fournette. On Sunday, the Jags head to Buffalo to take on a defense that ranks first against the pass in DVOA but 11th against the rush. To put that into perspective, Fournette ran for 95 yards against a Steelers unit that is ranked 10th against the rush. Volume alone makes Fournette a candidate to have a big game on Sunday at Buffalo as he should see upwards of 27-30 carries once again and we’re taking the Over on his rushing yards total.


GRAHAM TO TOUGH IT OUT

Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy told the media on Monday that tight end Jimmy Graham will “try to play” through the broken thumb he suffered last Thursday in Seattle. There is no guarantee that he will suit up, as the Packers’ medical staff will experiment with different splints and protections that will allow him to catch the ball. It doesn’t sound like an ideal situation but Green Bay is facing a must-win on Sunday night as it visits Minnesota, so Graham will do what he can this week to be on the field.

Should Graham suit up for Sunday Night Football, we’ll be looking to fade him. The injury situation alone would be grounds to stay away as catching a ball with a broken finger and some sort of splint/cast situation will be difficult enough. But there’s also the fact that the Packers face a tough matchup against a Vikings defense that allowed Bears tight end Trey Burton just one catch for nine yards last week. Graham’s usage has also been down as of late. He had just one catch last week as he was forced to leave the game with the injury, but he also had just one catch in two of his last three games before that. Rodgers has plenty of other options to throw to and we doubt he’ll be relying too much on a tight end with a broken finger. We’re taking the Under on Graham’s receptions total.

[StarDust Bum]

Thanksgiving Day Trends

Trends for Detroit-Chicago

-- Detroit saw its four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving Day end last season with a 30-23 loss to Minnesota.

-- Prior to the 4-0 run, the Lions had lost nine straight games on Thanksgiving between 2004 and 2012.

-- Detroit has seen the 'over' go 8-3 in its last 11 games played on Thanksgiving Day.

-- Chicago played at Detroit on the holiday in the 2014 season and it was doubled-up by the Lions, 34-17.

-- The Bears have gone 3-7 all-time in the Thanksgiving Day afternoon matchups, which includes a 3-5 record versus the Lions and 0-2 against the Cowboys.

Trends for Dallas-Washington

-- Dallas owns an all-time 30-19-1 record on Thanksgiving Day.

-- The Cowboys have dropped three of their last four games on the holiday, which includes a 28-6 setback to the L.A. Chargers last season. All three of the losses came by double digits.

-- Dallas has allowed 30.3 points per game in its last six holiday matchups.

-- Five of the last eight wins by Dallas on Thanksgiving Day have come by double-digits.

-- Washington owns a 4-7 all-time record on the holiday and that includes a 31-26 loss to Dallas in the 2016 matchup.

-- The last three games between the pair on Thanksgiving have watched them combine for 57, 69 and 47 points. The 'over' cashed easily in all three games.

Thanksgiving History - Detroit
Year Matchup
2017 Minnesota 30 Detroit 23
2016 Detroit 16 Minnesota 13
2015 Detroit 45 Philadelphia 14
2014 Detroit 34 Chicago 17
2013 Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
2012 Houston 34 Detroit 31 (OT)
2011 Green Bay 27 Detroit 15
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7

Thanksgiving History - Dallas
Year Matchup
2017 Los Angeles 28 Dallas 6
2016 Washington 26 Dallas 31
2015 Carolina 33 Dallas 14
2014 Philadelphia 33 Dallas 10
2013 Dallas 31 Oakland 24
2012 Washington 38 Dallas 31
2011 Dallas 20 Miami 19
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some NFL spread trends for Week 12:

— Buccaneers are 3-13 in last 16 games as a home favorite.

— Oakland is 2-9-1 in last dozen games as a road underdog.

— New England covered 15 of its last 20 games.

— Dolphins covered 3 of last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Minnesota is 15-5-1 in its last 21 games.

— Steelers are 12-21 in last 33 games as non-divisional road favorites.


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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!!!

13) Bears’ backup QB Chase Daniel has been in the NFL for nine years, during which time he’s banked $28M while starting two games; one each for the Chiefs in 2013, 2014. Looks like it’ll be Daniel making the start for Chicago in their game at Detroit today— Mitch Trubisky’s shoulder is banged up, so it is likely he will take Thanksgiving Day off.

12) Gonzaga 89, Duke 87— Quite a ballgame; Zags gagged pretty badly in last 0:30, going 0-4 on foul line, but Duke missed their last seven shots from floor and Gonzaga wins the Maui Classic. This is the triumph of a more experienced team over a younger, more talented group.

11) On Duke’s last shot of this game, there was contact but no foul was called; ESPN analyst Jay Bilas (a Duke alum) offered a mild protest, but where was he Tuesday, when Duke shot 20 free throws before Auburn took one? Its not so easy when you don’t get every call.

Bilas/Bill Walton were ESPN’s two analysts for the Maui Classic; Bilas had the Duke side of the broadcast all three days. Is Walton not allowed to work Duke games?

10) Thanks to Nike for saving me some money by designing the ugliest polo shirts ever this year; the polo shirts the coaches of Nike teams are wearing this week aren’t good.

9) Fran Fraschilla is working games for ESPN in Brooklyn this week; I’m sure he thrilled the people in Cincinnati when he called Chris Mack’s move from Xavier to Louisville a “no-brainer”

Mack went to college at Xavier and coached there for 18 years, nine as head coach- I’m guessing he put a lot of thought into the decision. Mrs Mack is from Louisville, which probably sealed the deal, but you don’t just bolt your alma mater, especially a school in the basketball-only Big East.

8) Jim Hickey is out as pitching coach of the Cubs; manager Joe Maddon will be a lame duck skipper in 2019— Hickey also worked with Maddon in Tampa Bay. Not lot of appreciation being shown for Maddon winning the World Series in 2016.

7) Tampa Bay Rays dumped 1B/DH CJ Cron, who hit 30 homers last year. There has to be some place in the majors this guy can play. His career OB% is .311 which hurts him in this age of analytics, but come on, there isn’t one MLB team that could use a 30-homer guy?

6) Marquette has a very good basketball player named Markus Howard whose dad played football at Indiana— his coach there was ESPN GameDay analyst Lee Corso, who coached the Hoosiers for ten seasons (1973-82).

5) Grizzlies 104, Spurs 103— Right now, Memphis has the best record in the west, which is a huge surprise. Golden State is 12-7 and is the 5th seed in the west right now.

4) Georgia State 91, Georgia 67— Huge win for the erratic Panthers, who lost to Creighton by 25 on Tuesday. Tom Crean’s Dawgs had a rough week on the Cayman Islands.

3) Dayton 69, Butler 64— Big win for the Atlantic 14, which is 10th-rated conference right now; last time they ended a season ranked this low was 12 years ago.

2) Pittsburgh 75, Saint Louis 73— Panthers are already 6-0, after going 8-24 last year; they’re starting three freshmen and two juniors, are #299 experience team. Saint Louis is top-ranked team in A-14, so this loss hurts that conference.

1) Knicks 117, Celtics 109— Boston is a disappointing 9-9 on Thanksgiving morning.

“(Bleep) Thanksgiving,” said Kyrie Irving after this game. Alrighty then.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday. November 22

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CHICAGO (7 - 3) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/22/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 51-78 ATS (-34.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
DETROIT is 140-176 ATS (-53.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (6 - 4) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/22/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (4 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (9 - 1) - 11/22/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday. November 22

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Chicago is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago


Washington Redskins
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 14 games
Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Washington is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Dallas's last 19 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington


Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Atlanta


--------------------------------


NFL
Dunkel

Week 12


Thursday, November 22

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 105-106
November 22, 2018 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
134.744
Detroit
135.065
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
Even
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Over

Washington @ Dallas

Game 107-108
November 22, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
129.258
Dallas
131.659
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Game 109-110
November 22, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
135.016
New Orleans
143.927
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 9
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 13
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+13); Over


-------------------------------


NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12


Thursday
Bears (7-3) @ Lions (4-6)—Sounds like Bears’ backup QB Chase Daniel (9 years/2 starts in NFL) gets nod here, with Trubisky hurt. Chicago won/covered its last four games; they’re 2-2 on road, with wins 16-14 in Arizona, 41-9 in Buffalo. Bears have 10 takeaways (+6) in last three games. Last five years, Bears are 1-3 as road favorites, 1-2 this year. Lions (+6.5) lost 34-22 in Chicago two weeks ago, turning ball over three times (-3) in game where Bears averaged 11.2 yards/pass attempt, with three TD plays of 26+ yards. Detroit is still 9-2 in last 11 series games; Bears lost their last five visits to the Motor City. Lions lost three of last four games; they’re 3-2 at home, 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as home dogs (2-0 this year) Over is 6-1 in last seven Chicago games; under is 3-1 in Detroit’s last four. Lions won four of last five Thanksgiving Day games.

Redskins (6-4) @ Cowboys (5-5)— QB Alex Smith broke his leg LW; Colt McCoy is new starter, Mark Sanchez is the new backup. Washington is 3-1 on road; they’re 13-10 in last 23 games as road underdogs, 2-1 this year. Redskins won four of last six games (+11 in turnovers in those games). Cowboys ran ball for 171-132 yards in first two games with new OL coach; they’re 3-1 at home. Under Garrett, Cowboys are 15-30 vs spread as home favorites, 1-2 this year. Dallas (+1.5) lost 20-17 at Redskins in Week 7; Cowboys were -2 in turnovers (0-2) with one of turnovers run back for a TD. Dallas won six of last eight series games; Redskins lost 31-26/38-14 in last two visits here. Four of last six Redskin games stayed under;

Falcons (4-6) @ Saints (9-1)— New Orleans won last nine games (8-1 vs spread) since opening loss to Bucs. In last three games, Saints scored 45-51-48 points (18 TDs on 29 drives), averaging over 9.5 yds/pass attempt all three games. Since 2014, NO is 11-18-1 as home favorite, 2-2 this year. Falcons lost last two games, scoring 16-19 points; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 6-6-24-12 points. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 7-4 as road underdog, 1-1 this year. Saints won first meeting 43-37 in OT in Atlanta in Week 3, with 10 TD’s scored on 23 drives, with no turnovers. These rivals split last 12 meetings; Falcons lost five of last seven visits to Bourbon Street. Series has been swept four of last five years. Under is 3-1 in Atlanta’s last four games.


------------------------------

Opening Line Report - Week 12
Joe Williams


We're headed into a good time in the season, with three NFL games on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. Can you believe the holiday season is officially here? Hopefully everyone has safe travels and a great Thanksgiving with family, friends, etc. Let's get started!

Thursday, Nov. 22

Chicago Bears (-4, 45) at Detroit Lions

These teams just met on Nov. 11 in Chicago with the Bears covering a seven-point number at home, 34-22. The Bears have covered four in a row heading into this battle, but QB Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) is reportedly dealing with an injury, so that's something to watch heading into Thursday's game. The total has been on the move down, going from 46 to 45 in the matter of hours at Atlantis.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 40.5)

The Redskins lost QB Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury, as he snapped his fibula and tibia. Not only is he out for the season, but it's no certainty he'll be back. The line opened at -7 at Jerry's Nugget, moving up to -7.5. That seems to be the sweet spot right now, as Southpoint and Stratosphere opened the game at -8, and dropped it to -7.5.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13.5, 59.5)

This game opened and has stayed -13 at most shop, with Westgate SuperBook opening the game at -12, before it quickly moved up to -13. The total is on the move, too, going from 59 to 60 according to CG Technology. It's likely to eclipse the 60-point barrier, perhaps the third time in NFL history a line closed over 60. It would also be the second time in two weeks this season. Again, it's a new day, and this isn't your grandfather's NFL.


----------------------------------

Games to Watch - Week 12

Atlanta Falcons (+525) at New Orleans Saints (-700)

Thursday is Thanksgiving Day, which means that we have not one but three games on tap for the holiday. The pick of the bunch is the evening game, with the Atlanta Falcons going on the road looking to keep their season alive with a win in New Orleans.

The Falcons are 4-6 on the season and in real danger of missing the playoffs, but they are not going to get any sympathy from their division rivals. The Saints are rolling right now, winning 9 in a row and looking like the team to beat in the NFL. I like New Orleans to hit double-digit wins on Thursday.


--------------------------------------


��NFL INJURY UPDATE��
Lions WR Marvin Jones (Knee) will not play in today's Thanksgiving matchup against the Bears.
Current Odds:
Bears -3
Total 43.5


For those Thanksgiving warriors up early to get a turkey in the oven, here's a look at current odds and consensus for today's three NFL games:
Bears (59% of bets) at Lions (+3, 43.5)
Redskins (53% of bets) at Cowboys (-7, 41)
Falcons (45% of bets) at Saints (-12.5, 60)