Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

[StarDust Bum]

DB Eric Berry will play his first game tonight since rupturing his Achilles in Week 1 last season. According to reports, he will be on a "pitch count".
Pointspread: Chiefs -3.5
Total: 54

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAC at KC 08:20 PM
LAC +3.5
U 54.0

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



TRIPLING DOWN ON THE CHIEFS

Earlier in the week, we suggested the Over for Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards total and for Travis Kelce to go Over 0.5 touchdown receptions, and we’re going to triple-down by backing Patrick Mahomes.

The Chargers are not a great matchup for opposing quarterbacks, but does that really matter for Mahomes? L.A. is ranked ninth in passing DVOA and is giving up just 224.8 passing yards per game (seventh-best in the NFL), but last week Mahomes went on the road to face a Ravens defense ranked fourth in passing DVOA and third in passing yards against and dropped 377 passing yards.

Mahomes didn’t have a huge yardage day when these teams met back in Week 1 but he did throw for 256 yards on 27 attempts (9.48 yards per attempt) and threw four touchdowns. There’s also a lot to like about Mahomes in primetime as he threw for 352 yards on Sunday Night Football in Week 6 and 478 yards on Monday Night Football in Week 11. We’re looking for some more offensive fireworks out of Arrowhead tonight and we’re taking the Over for his passing yards total of 303.5.


BERRY’S RETURN

One of the biggest storylines of tonight’s game in K.C. is the return of safety Eric Berry, who makes his season debut after rupturing his Achilles in Week 1 of last season. Berry is a massive upgrade for the Chiefs defense, as he allowed just 0.38 yards per coverage snap in 2015 and 2016, as opposed to the 0.60 and 0.59 marks that the current safeties are allowing in 2018. While he may be on a snap count tonight, his return will at least provide a huge emotional boost for the Chiefs.

This brings us to Phillip Rivers, who has been fantastic this season, but not so great at Arrowhead Stadium over the course of his career. In his last four games in K.C., Rivers is averaging just 256 passing yards per game while throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions.

The Chiefs defense is weak in 2018 but it has been much better at home (18.7 points against) than on the road (33.7). Rivers will be forced into a ton of passes tonight as he’s without his top two running backs and could be chasing points in a game with a total set at 53.5. We’re thinking Kansas City’s defense steps up tonight and manages to get its hands on one of Rivers’ passes, something that has happened multiple times in his last few trips to Arrowhead. Take the Over 0.5 on Rivers’ interception total.


WENTZ DONE FOR 2018?

Philadelphia’s playoffs odds are looking dicey and they took another hit on Wednesday when it was reported that Carson Wentz is unlikely to play on Sunday as the Eagles visit the Rams. Wentz has been unable to practice because of back spasms and could potentially miss the rest of the season.

With Wentz out, the Eagles will turn to Nick Foles. Eagles fans are likely dreaming of a scenario where Foles returns and leads Philly to another long playoff run, perhaps even capped off with another Super Bowl MVP. But let’s be realistic: The chances of that happening are slim.

The one stat that jumps out from when Foles replaced Wentz in 2017, is that the Eagles’ offense is far less explosive under Foles with a drop of 2.2 yards per attempt. This is a concern for Philly’s deep threats but could be an advantage for Golden Tate.

The newest addition to the Eagles’ receiving corps has been used primarily on short routes in Philly, averaging just 9.9 yards per catch, a sizeable drop from his career average of 11.9 yards per catch. Tate has been inconsistent, as evidenced by his one catch for seven yards last week, but we see him being more involved this week as Foles looks for an underneath security blanket. Take the Over on Tate’s receptions total.


JACKSON GETS THE NOD

Baltimore coach John Harbaugh confirmed on Wednesday that Lamar Jackson will start on Sunday against Tampa Bay. Joe Flacco is healthy and will dress as the backup, while Robert Griffin III will be scratched. Jackson gets his fourth consecutive matchup and will play against a Buccaneers defense ranked 30th in overall defensive DVOA and in rushing DVOA.

The Bucs are allowing 119.4 rushing yards per game and have also allowed quarterbacks to rush for 199 yards on 44 attempts, for an average of 4.5 yards per rush. Jackson is averaging 83 rushing yards per game and we can now determine a bit of a baseline for how many times he’ll run in a game. He had 13, 17, and 11 rushing attempts over his last three games after his unsustainable 27 rushing attempts in his first start.

We’re expecting about 14 rushing attempts for Jackson and also assuming he’ll be able to sustain the 4.5 yards per carry that the Buccaneers allow to opposing QBs. If those hold true, Jackson should be able to get to the 65-rushing yard mark. We’ll be looking to take the Over if it gets set near that number when the prop market opens later in the week.


HOWARD STILL OUT FOR DOLPHINS

Dolphins stud corner Xavien Howard remained out of practice on Wednesday due to the knee injury that kept him out of last week’s game against New England. He did some light running on Thursday morning but his status for Sunday, as Miami plays Minnesota, is still in doubt. His presence was predictably missed against the Patriots, with Tom Brady throwing for 358 yards and Josh Gordon posting 96 receiving yards (and getting us a winning bet).

If Howard can’t go, it’ll be a huge boost to Stefon Diggs’ value in Week 15. Diggs was the only Vikings receiver to do anything last week, posting 76 receiving yards on four receptions (and getting us another winner). His targets have dipped in recent weeks, with just five and six in each of the past two games, but he has shown he can still put up big yardage numbers on low targets.

There’s also a good chance his targets increase under new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota. Assuming Howard is out, it’s a great spot for Diggs and we’ll be taking the Over on his receiving yards total.

[StarDust Bum]

Chargers stun Chiefs with late rally
December 13, 2018
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KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Arrowhead Stadium was already emptying by the time Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers jogged to the locker room, triumphantly waving his hand as a satisfying cascade of boos washed over him.

He had finally beaten the Kansas City Chiefs.

It sounded perfect.

Rivers led Los Angeles on a feverish fourth-quarter comeback Thursday night, capped by a debatable pass-interference call, a tense video review of the last touchdown and the gutsy decision to try a 2-point conversion. And for the first time in years against Kansas City, everything turned out perfectly for Rivers and the Chargers in a 29-28 victory that clinched their playoff spot.

''This was big. Here or at home, whatever,'' Rivers said, ''we needed to beat these guys.''

The Chargers (11-3) trailed 28-14 when Justin Jackson's touchdown run with 3:49 to go gave them a chance. They quickly got the ball back from Patrick Mahomes and the NFL's highest-scoring offense, and Rivers led a tense final drive that included a fourth-down dart to Travis Benjamin to keep it alive.

That crucial penalty on Kendall Fuller in the back of the end zone gave the Chargers the ball at the 1, and Rivers found Mike Williams along the sideline on the next play. And when his TD catch with 4 seconds left was confirmed, coach Anthony Lynn sent his offense back onto the field.

Williams hauled in the conversion to end five years' worth of frustration.

''We didn't come here to tie. We came here to win. So to me it was a no-brainer,'' said Lynn, whose team became the first since Minnesota in Week 15 of the 2002 season to win with a 2-point conversion in the final 10 seconds of regulation.

The comeback allowed Los Angeles to forge a first-place tie in the AFC West, though the Chiefs (11-3) hold the tiebreaker with a better division record. More satisfying was the simple fact that Rivers and the Chargers had finally snapped their nine-game losing streak against Kansas City.

They hadn't beaten the Chiefs since 2013, the last year they made the playoffs.

''Oh, it's satisfying,'' Benjamin said. ''We talked about it. We knew it had been a couple years and we wanted to go into this game and change that and we did.''

Rivers threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions, and Williams had seven catches for 76 yards and two scores while adding another on the ground. Jackson ran for 58 yards and a touchdown in place of the injured Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler.

Mahomes was held to just 243 yards and two touchdowns for Kansas City, and his inability to pick up a first down in the closing minutes proved costly. The Chiefs forced the Chargers to burn two timeouts on their last drive, but Mahomes was sacked by Isaac Rochell and Kansas City had to punt.

The Chiefs never got the ball back on offense.

''They found a way to win and we didn't,'' Mahomes said. ''You have to find a way in this league.''

Hyped by the return of star safety Eric Berry, it looked for a while as if the Chiefs would simply resume their vexation of Rivers at Arrowhead. Steven Nelson leaped to snag a jump ball for a pick on the second play of the game, and Rivers tossed another just before halftime.

Mahomes and Co. took advantage of their early momentum.

Kansas City breezed downfield after Nelson's interception, and the young MVP candidate threw a dart to Demarcus Robinson - while in the grasp of Chargers safety Adrian Phillips - for a 7-0 lead.

Then after a punt, Darrel Williams took a screen pass for his first career touchdown.

The Chargers finally reached the end zone in the second quarter, when Mike Williams caught a short TD pass. But it came moments after wide receiver Keenan Allen hurt his hip while trying to make a leaping grab in the corner of the end zone - he briefly returned before sitting out the rest of the game.

Mike Williams continued to pick up the slack the rest of the game.

After the Chiefs pushed their lead to 21-7 on Damien Williams' touchdown run, the Chargers' big, rangy wide receiver answered with a 19-yard end-around for a score. And when then Chiefs went on another methodical scoring drive to take a 28-14 lead with just over 8 minutes left in the game, Mike Williams helped to lead the Chargers to an answering touchdown to stay in the game.

He made two more big catches in the final seconds to put them over the top.

''Everybody needed to come together and make plays,'' Mike Williams said, ''and that's what we did.

TONY G'S AWARD

The Chiefs added TE Tony Gonzalez to their Hall of Fame at halftime. The six-time All-Pro played his first 12 seasons with the Chiefs before finishing his career in Atlanta. His name was unveiled next to that of WR Carlos Carson on the ring of honor inside Arrowhead Stadium.

INACTIVE STARS

Gordon (knee) tried to warmup before telling Lynn he couldn't play, joining Ekeler (concussion) on their inactive list. The Chiefs were missing RB Spencer Ware (hamstring) and WR Sammy Watkins (foot).

INJURIES

Chargers: Allen received treatment on the sideline after nearly making his spectacular TD catch, and he returned briefly before slowly walking off. He left for the locker room and did not return.

UP NEXT

Chargers: Return home for a prime-time game against the Ravens on Dec. 22.

Chiefs: Visit the Seahawks for another prime-time game Dec. 23.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 15, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
4:30 PM Houston Texans New York Jets
8:20 PM Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos

Sunday, December 16, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Dallas Cowboys Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans New York Giants
4:05 PM Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers
8:20 PM Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams

Monday, December 17, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers


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NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/10/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............28-27-0.....50.90%.....-8.50

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Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/13/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-0.50
12/10/2018............0 - 1.................-5.50.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-11.00
12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00.............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals.....................9 - 8..................+1.00....................7 - 11...............-20.50...........-19.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Five NFL teams who started season 0-3 and still made playoffs:

— 1992 Chargers started out 0-4 and got to the Super Bowl.

— 1981 Jets lost the Wild Card game at home to Buffalo.

— 1995 Lions lost Wild Card game 58-37 to Philadelphia.

— 1998 Bills (with Doug Flutie at QB) lost Wild Card game 24-17 to Miami.

— 1982 Buccaneers made playoffs in strike-shortened season.

— 2018 Texans started season 0-3, look like a good bet to make playoffs.

Quote of the Day
“In the future, we might be saying ‘Damn!’. Because he was a great, great player. We always had the fastest guy on the field no matter what. I think [my dad] would have loved Amari (Cooper), but it just didn’t work out in our system.”
Raiders’ owner Mark Davis

Friday’s quiz
Where did Philip Rivers play his college football?

Thursday’s quiz
Steph Curry played his college basketball at Davidson.

Wednesday’s quiz
The Clippers were in San Diego before they played in LA; they were the Buffalo Braves before they moved to San Diego, with Bob McAdoo, Jim McMillian, Randy Smith, Ernie DeGregorio.


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Friday’s List of 13; Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) Planning way too far ahead: NFL announced that the 2020 NFL Draft will be held in Las Vegas, and I’ve already penciled that week in for a visit to the desert- thats going to be fun.

I’ve always wanted to go to the draft so that will get checked off the list next year; plus, the A’s AAA team plays in Vegas suburb Summerlin now so that could be a very busy week.

12) Speaking of Las Vegas, the Raiders are moving there in 2020, but it looks like they don’t have a home for 2019, with the city of Oakland suing the team.

My pick for where the NFL goes is San Antonio’s domed stadium, there is no NFL tenant there now- thats where the Saints played their home games when the Superdome was damaged after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

11) Odd baseball stat: Over last two years, Texas Rangers’ DH Joey Gallo has hit 81 home runs but only 70 singles. That doesn’t seem possible, but it is true.

10) Kawhi Leonard is a great basketball player, but the Toronto Raptors are 7-1 in games he’s missed this season; they just beat Clippers/Warriors without him on back/back nights.

9) This is Finals Week for most colleges, so hardly any college basketball this week, so credit to MLB Network for saving the TV week at the Winter Meetings, even though there wasn’t a lot of action as far as free agent signings or trades- lot of good conversation, though.

8) Word of the Day: Quisling- a traitor who collaborates with an enemy force.

Learned this word from watching Billions on Showtime, which is a great series that is well worth your time. When they used the word on Billions, had to go online and look it up, had never heard it before. Neither did one of the characters on the show.

7) This from Chris Fallica: Last 20 times an SEC team has been a 6+ point underdog in a bowl, (this goes back to 1999), the SEC team is 16-4 vs spread with 11 SU wins. Kentucky, Florida are both getting more than six points in their bowl games this month.

6) ESPN’s Jeff Van Gundy is one of us, a sports junkie- the guy is ESPN’s #1 NBA analyst but he went to two high school basketball games last week, and was complaining that high school hoop games (in most states) don’t have shot clocks (they do here in NY).

There was a Duke-North Carolina basketball game in the late 70’s that was 7-0 Duke at halftime; this was just before ESPN started and six years before the shot clock came to college ball, but I was in college back then and basketball without the shot clock was a game that coaches could strangle and they often did. Much better game now, way better.

5) Chargers 29, Chiefs 28— Wow, Chargers scored with 0:04 left to make it 28-27, then went for 2 and the win and ran a play that was totally wide open for the score. Bolts led this game only :04, but it was the right :04.

Teams are tied at 11-3, but Chargers have one more divisional loss, so Chiefs’ game in Seattle next week becomes a huge game in the AFC West.

4) Charlie Morton gets $30M for two years from the Tampa Bay Rays that makes Morton the highest-paid Ray (or Devil Ray) ever, at $15M a year.

3) There was a 3-way trade in baseball:
Indians get: Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers.
Mariners get: Edwin Encarnacion and a competitive balance draft pick.
Rays get: Yandy Diaz and a player to be named later

2) Not only is Carson Wentz highly doubtful for Sunday night against the Rams, he could easily be done for the season. Wentz has a broken vertebrae in his back.

1) Best wishes to Seattle Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto, who was hospitalized this week with blood clots near his lung. Get well soon, sir.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Underdogs: Week 15 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

I’ll be truthful. At first glance, I didn’t have any knee-jerk, must-play feelings about a single NFL betting underdog in Week 15. That’s strange, because there are usually one or two each week.

I feel like I walked into Toys R Us (we still have those in Canada, BTW) on Christmas Eve looking for whatever glitter-infused, rainbow-pooping unicorn toy my daughter’s been asking for, but I’m faced with barren shelves and discounted dolls with one eye that doesn’t quite open all the way. Creepy.

But like any good father, I’m going to find that god damn unicorn. I just have look harder. And when it comes to finding value with the points in Week 15, it’s going to take some additional digging. Like finding out that Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been an underdog in Chicago since the 2008 season – his first year as the No. 1 QB in Green Bay (Packers were +4.5 at Chicago in Week 10 with Brett Hundley under center last season).

Yep, you’ve got to go all the way back to Week 16 of the 2008 schedule to see A-Rod pegged as a pup in the Windy City. Books gave the Packers four points that day, and they lost 20-17 in overtime but came through with the cover for Cheeseheads with a little extra cheddar on the line.

This Sunday, sportsbooks are dealing Green Bay +6 against a Bears squad boasting a dominating 6-1 SU and ATS record inside Solider Field and fresh off a victory over the L.A. Rams Sunday night, sucking all the offensive power out of an attack that’s averaging almost 33 points per game.

I’m not buying the Packers based on Rodgers’ track record as a favorite in Chicago – I just thought that was an interesting stat (although Green Bay is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 meetings in Chi-Town). I don’t think they win this game outright. This is just too many points to give in a heated divisional rivalry with a Green Bay team still trying to prove something with an interim head coach singing for his supper.

Green Bay is a dismal 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season but none of those games came inside Soldier Field. This is the Packers’ home away from home and it’s nice to be home for the holidays.

Pick: Green Bay +6


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 46.5)

The Ravens find themselves in a sandwich spot, hosting the Bucs as 7.5-point favorites. Baltimore is coming down off a disappointing finish in Kansas City (losing 27-24 in OT in Week 14) and has a huge lookahead game on deck, traveling to L.A. to take on the Chargers – another team vying for a AFC Wild Card spot - in Week 16.

Thrown into this situational stew is a sprig of internal drama, with the Ravens doing everything but cutting veteran QB Joe Flacco and leaning on rookie “passer” Lamar Jackson down the stretch (and let's not forget RG3). The media is all over this controversy, pulling even more attention away from Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers are playing much better football over their last four games. Well, three and a half games. Tampa Bay had New Orleans on the ropes with a 14-3 halftime lead last weekend and crumbled in the final 30 minutes.

Regardless, this isn’t the same Tampa team that was the punchline of the league for two and a half months of the season. The stop unit has improved (which wasn’t too hard to do), finally gaining an identity behind a beastly defensive line, and the offense is capitalizing on chances, with a near 78 percent touchdown rate inside the red zone over the past three games.

Pick: Tampa Bay +7.5


Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 44)

Last week, I took the Cardinals +3.5 at home to Detroit and even though Arizona lost that game 17-3, I still feel like it was the correct pick. Weird right?

The Cardinals defense held the Lions to 223 yards of offense and 10 points. The Arizona offense outgained Detroit by 78 yards and won the time of possession battle 31:44 to 28:16, Yet, a pick-6 from rookie Josh Rosen late in the third quarter broke the back of this Arizona team, which would eventually surrender another score in the final minutes of the fourth.

The Cardinals are getting 10 points in Atlanta, where the Falcons drag a five-game losing skid into Mercedes Benz Stadium. Atlanta has lost by an average margin of 10.6 points per game during this slide, allowing rushing totals of 211, 132, 150, 207, and 138 yards. That’s almost 168 yards on the ground against per contest.

Cardinals RB David Johnson has been the scourge of the fantasy football community all season, failing to live up to his past production, but will totally redeem himself (Lloyd Christmas style) and push some long-suffering fantasy GMs to their league finals with a huge effort in Atlanta.

Pick: Arizona +10

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 28-13-1 ATS

[Udog]

JOHNSON TO GROUND FALCONS?

David Johnson returned to the field on Thursday after sitting out Wednesday’s practice with a quad issue. Arizona coach Steve Wilks has been consistent in saying that Johnson will suit up at Atlanta on Sunday and bettors should hope he does in what is a great matchup.

Admittedly, we have struggled with Johnson props over the past two weeks with back-to-back losses. His usage has been there with 20-plus touches in six of his last seven games but he failed to get into the end zone last week and had just one reception two weeks ago. The Falcons, however, are ranked dead last in overall DVOA and 31st in rushing DVOA. Johnson has hit the 100-yard mark from scrimmage four times this season and three of those came against teams ranked in the bottom 11 in DVOA. Johnson’s usage in the passing game has been inconsistent (8, 1, 2, 1, and 7 receptions over his last five games) but Atlanta does give up a league-high 7.5 receptions per game to running backs. Add in the fact that the Falcons allow an average of five yards per carry to running backs and we’re feeling confident that we can break out of our David Johnson funk with the Over for his combined yardage total.


SHADY LIMITED

Bills running back LeSean McCoy (hamstring) returned to practice on a limited basis on Thursday after he had missed Wednesday’s session. This is a step in the right direction for his Week 15 availability but he appears to be 50-50. His status will have to be monitored over the next two days but if he suits up, we’ll be looking to fade for a few reasons.

The Bills host the Lions on Sunday, a team that has been very tough against the run of late, posting 83.7 rushing yards to opposing backfields over the last seven games. Then there’s the Josh Allen factor as he has nine or more rushing attempts in the three games since he returned from injury. Finally, there’s the chance of re-injury as McCoy has a soft-tissue injury that could flare up at any time, especially in the cold. Keep an eye on Covers’ Twitter feed for injury updates and look to take the Under on McCoy’s rushing yards total if he is active.


WASHINGTON HURTING

Washington’s offense in serious trouble this week. But you already knew this as Josh Johnson starts at quarterback against the Jaguars. Adding to that, we see that its top wide receiver, Josh Doctson, has missed two practices and is unlikely to play because of a concussion, and tight end Jordan Reed, the team leader in receiving yards, is doubtful because of the toe injury he suffered in Week 14 against the Giants. Then there’s Adrian Peterson, who is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry over his last four games while touching the ball just 75 times (12.5 touches per game).

This is obviously a situation to fade Washington in a game with a total set at just 36, the lowest total in the NFL since 2014. In addition to Washington’s offensive woes, Jacksonville is extremely tough against to score against at home, allowing just 13.5 points per game at TIAA Bank Field. We hit a winner last week by backing the Under for its team total and, even though the market has corrected itself and set it at 13.5 for Week 15, we’re going back to the well and taking the Under for Washington’s team total.


OBJ ‘AIN’T RIGHT’

Odell Beckham Jr. told the media that his quad is “much better” and that he considers himself day to day ahead of Sunday’s home tilt against the Titans. When asked specifically what was wrong, however, he said, “I don’t know…(stuff) ain’t right.” OBJ is looking to be a genuine game-time decision for Week 15. If he is able to get out there, we’ll be backing Beckham in a nice matchup against a Titans defense that is ranked 22nd in passing DVOA and 26th in receiving yards allowed per game to wide receivers. Tennessee specifically struggles against the opponent’s top receiver, ranked 30th in DVOA to WR1s in allowing nine passes per game for 81.3 yards. Monitor OBJ’s status and grab the Over on his receiving yards total if he suits up.


BREIDA BACK AT PRACTICE

San Francisco running back Matt Breida (ankle) was limited at practice on Thursday for the second day in a row, which could put him on track to play against Seattle in Week 15. While this would be good news for the 49ers, it would be bad news for prop bettors and fantasy owners alike as it would presumably create timeshare between Breida and Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson has been great over the last two games in replace of Breida, posting 47 total touches for 230 yards. That included 15 carries for 61 yards and eight catches for 73 yards just two weeks ago against the Seahawks. Seattle is vulnerable to running backs of late, evidenced by Wilson’s performance two weeks ago and Dalvin Cook’s 83 total yards last week. We see two ways to bet this game. If Breida is out, we’ll be looking to back the Over for Wilson’s combined yards. If Breida plays, we’ll be backing the Under for Breida’s rushing yards total because of the risk of re-injury and the fact that Wilson will likely stay involved.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 15
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at NYJ 04:30 PM
NYJ +7.0
O 44.0

CLE at DEN 08:20 PM
CLE +2.5
U 46.5

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 10-0-1 ATS (9.4 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 on the road coming off a win where they had at least 400 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Rams are 0-10 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since Oct 28, 2001 as a home favorite of more than three points coming off a road game with less than 300 total yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-8-1 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since Dec 24, 2016 after a loss in which Cameron Brate had a receiving touchdown.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:

-- The Ravens are 9-0 ATS (18.0 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 as a home favorite off a game as a dog where they had less than 200 passing yards.

-- The Giants are 9-0 ATS (17.7 ppg) since Sep 25, 2011 coming off a game as a favorite where they allowed no more than 15 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-8 OU (-10.3 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 on the road coming off a road game where Tom Brady threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Texans are 11-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since Nov 14, 2004 coming off a loss in which they had zero turnovers.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-10-1 OU (-10.1 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 on the road coming off a loss.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams playing their final regular season home game which have won at least six of their first seven home games are 96-77-3 ATS. Active on Chicago.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Giants are 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent after a win as a road favorite in which they benefitted from a turnover margin of+2 or greater.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Bills are 0-12 OU (-8.9 ppg) off a loss as a home favorite in which they converted at least five third downs.

[Udog]

RUNNING WITH WATSON

Happy Saturday! Usually we don’t get to say this but the NFL on Saturday returns this week so we’ll kick off the day with a prop bet (or two) for today’s action. The first game features the Texans visiting the Jets and we’re seeing something we like with Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson.

The Jets aren’t an easy matchup, ranked 18th in DVOA and 11th against the pass. There’s also the fact that it’s New York in December and, although it won’t be terribly cold with temperatures in the mid-50s, Watson has been a fair weather or indoor quarterback for all of his career. We do like the idea of Watson doing a bit of running today, however, and that’s one area that the Jets have been vulnerable in, allowing 299 yards on 49 rushes so far this season for an average of 6.1 yards per attempt. Josh Allen ripped the Jets for 9-101-1 on the ground last week and Marcus Mariota went 4-43-0 two weeks ago. While we don’t expect Watson to do what Allen did last week, we think he’ll mimic what Mariota was able to do and we’re taking the Over 30.5 for his rushing yards total.


BAKER’S BIG DAY?

Saturday’s second game sees the Browns visit the Broncos and it could be a special night for rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. Here’s a fun stat: Since Hue Jackson was fired, Mayfield has the third-best passer rating in the NFL behind only Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes. He has passed for 1,406 passing yards for 9.2 yards per attempt in those five games. Today, he gets a Denver defense that is allowing the 335.8 passing yards since Week 10, which is the most in the league. The Broncos are also going to be without top cornerback Chris Harris, as they were last week when Nick Mullens dropped 332 yards on 10.1 yards per attempt on them. Take the Over 255.5 on Mayfield’s passing yards total.


NO OBJ FOR NYG

Odell Beckham Jr. has been officially ruled out against Tennessee on Sunday with a quad issue, marking the second consecutive week he’ll be on the sideline. While this is obviously bad news for the Giants offense as a whole, it could actually be a boost for Saquon Barkley. Last week, in OBJ’s absence, Barkley went off for 197 combined on just 18 touches. He could have had upwards of 250 yards had the Giants not sat him for most of the second half as they nursed a huge lead against Washington.

Barkley could be the most consistent running back in football at the moment as he has posted 100-plus rushing yards in each of his last four. His matchup isn’t ideal this week as he goes against a Titans defense ranked 17th in overall DVOA, but is proving to be matchup proof, as evidenced by his 146 total yards against Chicago’s top-ranked defense in DVOA two weeks ago. Barkley’s usage should be through the roof in what should be a tight game (TEN -1, O/U 43.5) and we’re looking to get a winner out of Barkley for the second consecutive week by taking the Over for his combined yardage total.


STAFFORD’S BAD BACK

Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is listed as questionable with a back issue. He was limited at practice all week but the situation was the same last week and he wound up playing through his injury at Arizona. He’s expected to do the same this week as the Lions visit Buffalo on Sunday.

Last week, Stafford was obviously not comfortable and wound up throwing for just 101 yards on 23 attempts against Arizona’s 10th-ranked passing defense in DVOA. On Sunday, he faces Buffalo’s ninth-ranked passing defense, using the same metric. Last week, he was in a dome and this week, he gets to deal with temperatures that will hover around the freezing mark. There’s also the fact that Detroit’s offense is completely depleted with Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones Jr. already ruled out. Take the Under for his passing yards total, which should be set around the 230 mark.

[Udog]

Top 6 picks for Week 15 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Indianapolis Colts -3 (999)

2) Tennessee Titans +2.5 (911)

3) Seattle Seahawks -4.5 (877)

4) New England Patriots -2.5 (865)

5) Green Bay Packers +6 (743)

6) Cleveland Browns +3 (701)

Season record: 43-38-3

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 15
Chris David

Week 14 Recap

The ‘under’ went 9-7 last week and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for some late scoring surges. Bettors on the Ravens-Chiefs ‘under’ had a great chance to win but that was before Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes pulled off a ridiculous fourth down conversion.

While that was tough to watch for some, the Dallas-Philadelphia outcome was a punch to the stomach for bettors on the low side. The Cowboys led 6-0 at halftime and 9-6 after three quarters before the pair combined for 31 points in the fourth, 28 of those coming in the final 7:36. Dallas wide receiver Amari Cooper has single handily now cashed Cowboy-Over combinations twice this season, the first coming on Thanksgiving.

We did some ‘over’ tickets get squeezed last week as well. Carolina and Cleveland were knotted 17-17 at halftime and only scored 12 second-half points. Also, the Bengals and Chargers had 29 combined points at halftime and they played to a 9-9 score in the final 30 minutes.

If you’ve been betting NFL on a regular basis, you’ve seen these decisions before and you’ll definitely see them again. Through 14 weeks, the ‘under’ sits at 108-100 on the season.

2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 14 7-9 7-9 5-11

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 100-108 104-104 91-112-5

2018 Results - Other
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 14 0-2 5-2 0-2 0-2

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 27-21 32-37 18-22 10-6

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 15 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

New Orleans at Carolina: 54 to 50 ½
Philadelphia at L.A. Rams: 54 ½ to 52
Green Bay at Chicago: 46 ½ to 44 ½
New England at Pittsburgh: 52 ½ to 54
Miami at Minnesota: 43 to 44 ½
Detroit at Buffalo: 38 to 39 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 15 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

New England at Pittsburgh: Over 95%
Arizona at Atlanta: Over 89%
Green Bay at Chicago: Under 86%
Oakland at Cincinnati: Over 82%
Seattle at San Francisco: Under 76%

Keep an Eye On

-- There are six non-conference games on tap this weekend and the home team is favored in five of the six matchups. The ‘over’ has gone 27-21 (56%) in these contests this season.

-- There are only three games listed with totals in the fifties this week and that includes the “Game of the Week” from Western Pennsylvania between the Steelers and Patriots. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and that includes last year’s 27-24 road win by New England. The game (52 ½) should’ve at least gone to overtime but Big Ben tried to do too much late and was picked off in the endzone. The Steelers (34.5 PPG) have proven that they can score at Heinz Field this season and even though the Patriots put up 33 last week at Miami, the club is only averaging 23.3 PPG on the road. As Micah Roberts reported in his weekly Vegas Money Moves piece, bettors are riding New England heavily in this matchup and the ‘over’ is also getting attention. Make a note that the often-wagered Patriots-Over combo has only hit twice this season.

-- The Coast-to-Coast situation have watched the ‘over’ go 10-6 this season and we’ve got three matchups on tap this weekend – Oakland at Cincinnati, Arizona at Atlanta, Philadelphia at L.A. Rams. Of these games, the Raiders-Bengals ‘over’ (46) might have a shot based on defensive tendencies for both clubs. Plus, it’s a meaningless game for the pair and Oakland has allowed 28 and 34 points in its first two games played in the Eastern Time Zone.

-- The “Road Total System” is in play this week as New Orleans will be playing its third straight road game at Carolina on Monday. The trend calls for bettors to play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game. Unfortunately, it’s gone 0-2 this season with losers occurring in Week 6 (Ravens) and Week 7 (Rams). Including those results, the ‘over’ sits at 44-25 (64%) over the last 12 seasons with this situation.

Divisional Matchups

The ‘over’ rebounded with a 5-2 mark in divisional games last week and the high side is on a 6-2 run when you include Thursday’s result between the Chargers and Chiefs. Including that result, the ‘under’ has gone 37-33 in divisional matchups this season.

Green Bay at Chicago: A lot of early money coming in on the ‘under’ in this game even though this has been an ‘over’ series with eight of the last 10 going to the high side. The pair met in Week 1 and Green Bay stole a 24-23 win over the Bears at home as an injured QB Aaron Rodgers rallied the Packers to 21 points in the fourth quarter. The Chicago defense collapsed in that game but it’s a much-improved unit right now and it’s been great at home (17.6 PPG). On the other side, Green Bay has been a mess defensively (28.8 PPG) on the road but my confidence on the Bears offense isn’t that high. A win for Chicago would clinch the division and eliminate Green Bay from the playoffs, so I’m buying the narrative of a conservative game-plan where QB Mitch Trubisky doesn’t make mistakes.

Seattle at San Francisco: The pair met in Week 13 and Seattle blasted San Francisco 43-16 as the ‘over’ (45) connected easily. The ‘under’ cashed in the two previous meetings and the low side is on a 3-1 run in the last four meetings from San Francisco. The 49ers have allowed 28 and 33 points at home in their first two divisional games and they only averaged 14 points per game, both losses. The Seahawks have averaged 25.3 PPG in away games this season, yet the ‘under’ holds a 4-3 mark.

Carolina at New Orleans: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and it could’ve been 3-0 if Tennessee didn’t explode against Jacksonville. We saw another rough beat this past Thursday as the Chargers rallied past the Chiefs and if Kansas City makes a late stop, that’s another ‘under’ ticket. Including that result, the ‘over’ sits at 23-21 in games played under the lights this season.

Primetime Total Results (O/U): TNF (10-5), SNF (5-9), MNF (8-7)

Philadelphia at L.A. Rams: Nick Foles is expected to start at QB for the Eagles as Carson Wentz sits with a lingering back issue. Foles started the first two games of the season and he didn’t look like the player that won the Super Bowl last season, with Philadelphia managing just 18 and 21 points. The Rams (32.7 PPG) still own the third best scoring offense in the league but the unit hasn’t looked as sharp lately and they were held to a season-low six points last Sunday at Chicago. This Eagles defense is very banged up and the unit is allowing 448 yards per game on the road, which is ranked 31st in the league. If there was an was an opportunity for the Rams offense to get right, it should happen on SNF. Last season, Philadelphia outlasted Los Angeles 43-35 at the Coliseum and the ‘over’ (47) was never in doubt.

New Orleans at Carolina: This will be the first meeting between the pair this season and they’ll also square off in Week 17 from New Orleans. The ‘over’ is on a 7-1 run in this series and the Saints have had their way with the Panthers, winning three straight and four of the last five while averaging 31.4 PPG during this span. Carolina is a mess right now, losers in five straight games. To be fair, four of the games were on the road and the last four setbacks came by one score. At home, Carolina has averaged 30.8 PPG this season and that’s led to a 5-1 ‘over’ mark. As noted above, the Saints fit the “Road Total System” angle and visitors have averaged 30 PPG in those contests.

Fearless Predictions

Unfortunately, last week’s quartet of plays ($190) featured not one but two of the ‘bad beats’ mentioned above last week and that kept us in the red. I actually had a chance to juice out but the teaser collapsed with the Giants-Redskins outburst. Only three weeks left in the regular season and hopefully I can keep the bankroll up ($865) with the final 12 plays of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-Cincinnati 46
Best Under: Detroit-Buffalo 39 ½
Best Team Total: Over Tampa Bay 19 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over Arizona-Atlanta 36 ½
Under Washington-Jacksonville 44
Over New England-Pittsburgh 46 ½

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 15
December 15, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Cowboys at Colts (-3, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Dallas (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS) captured control of the NFC East not only by sweeping a three-game homestand, but also threw the knockout punch on defending champion Philadelphia last Sunday. Following wins over the Redskins and Saints, the Cowboys went back and forth with the rival Eagles until Dallas finished off Philadelphia in overtime, 29-23 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Amari Cooper hauled in the game-winning touchdown pass from Dak Prescott in overtime to cap off a 10-catch, 217-yard performance along with three touchdowns catches.

The Colts (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) rebounded from an ugly performance in a 6-0 setback at Jacksonville in Week 13 to top Houston last Sunday, 24-21 as four-point underdogs. Indianapolis opened things up by scoring 17 second quarter points, while Andrew Luck diced up the Houston defense for 399 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts have won six of the last seven games since a 1-5 start, while finished UNDER the total in four consecutive contests.

Dallas has won and covered five straight games, while winning two in a row on the road since starting 0-4 away from AT&T Stadium. The Colts started the season at 3-0-1 ATS when laying points, but have failed to cash in their last two opportunities when laying points. Dallas crushed Indianapolis in its last matchup in 2014 in Arlington, 42-7, as the Colts last beat the Cowboys in 2002.

Best Bet: Colts 27, Cowboys 21

Dolphins at Vikings (-7 ½, 44 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Last season, the Vikings (6-6-1 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) pulled off the Minneapolis Miracle by stunning the Saints in the divisional round of the playoffs with a last-second touchdown. Last Sunday, the Dolphins (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) put together the Miami Miracle by perfectly executing a pair of laterals in the final seconds, capped off by a Kenyan Drake touchdown to lift the ‘Fins past the mighty Patriots, 34-33 as 9 ½-point underdogs.

The Dolphins improved to 6-1 at Hard Rock Stadium, while remaining alive in the AFC Wild Card race. The only problem is Miami needs to fix its road woes, as the Dolphins have lost five of six games away from south Florida, while last winning on the highway in Week 2 against the Jets. Since Ryan Tannehill returned under center for Miami, the Dolphins are 3-0 ATS the last three games, while going 6-2 ATS with their starting quarterback in the lineup this season.

Minnesota stunk it up at Seattle last Monday in a 21-7 setback as the lone touchdown for the Vikings came late in the fourth quarter. The Vikings are 4-2 at U.S. Bank Stadium, where they have played at only once in the past month in a 24-17 victory over the Packers. Since winning three straight games in October, the Vikings’ offense has been limited to 20 points or less in four of the past six contests.

Best Bet: Vikings 23, Dolphins 19

Patriots (-2 ½, 54) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

It’s not normal to see December road meltdowns by New England and Pittsburgh, but they both occurred on the same Sunday. The Patriots (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) couldn’t break away from the Dolphins, but led 33-28 in the final seconds. The Dolphins stunned New England with the Miami Miracle on a 69-yard touchdown to hand the Patriots their fourth road loss of the season. New England allowed at least 31 points on the road for the fourth time in 2018, while losing at Miami for the fifth time in six seasons.

The Steelers (7-5-1 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) were in firm control of the AFC North three weeks ago, but are now in danger of missing the playoffs with a poor finish. Pittsburgh has lost the last three games by seven points or less, including last Sunday’s 24-21 setback at Oakland as hefty 10 ½-point road favorites. Ben Roethlisberger suffered a rib injury, while the Raiders scored the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute for only their third win of the season. Pittsburgh fell to 3-6-1 ATS in the favorite role, but the Steelers are 3-0 ATS as an underdog.

These two rivals are meeting for the first time since the infamous catch/no-catch from Steelers’ tight end Jesse James in New England’s 27-24 comeback victory at Heinz Field last December. That rally by the Patriots propelled New England to a home-field advantage in the AFC, while the Steelers eventually got bounced back Jacksonville in the divisional round. The Patriots have owned the Steelers through the years by capturing each of the past five matchups, while winning in three straight visits to Heinz Field.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Steelers 24

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (1-4 last week, 33-35-2 this season)
Bengals -3
Titans +2 ½
Packers +6
Falcons -8 ½
49ers +4 ½

Chris David (2-3 last week, 45-24-1 this season)
Bills -2 ½
Titans +2 ½
Bears -6
Falcons -8 ½
Rams -11

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 44 – Cardinals at Falcons

This is the lowest total the Falcons have seen at home since Week 2 against the Panthers, when Atlanta beat Carolina, 31-24 on a 44 total. Arizona’s offense has not been productive all season long, while scoring 33 points the past three weeks. Atlanta’s defense has been banged-up all season long, while Arizona has hit the OVER in three of five opportunities on the road with totals of 45 or less.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Seahawks have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL the last two months by winning six of their last eight games. Seattle seeks its fifth consecutive victory as the Seahawks face the 49ers for the second time in three weeks. The Seahawks pounded the Niners at CenturyLink Field in Week 13 as 10-point favorites, 43-16. San Francisco ended a three-game skid in a 20-14 triumph over Denver last Sunday as three-point underdogs to pick up its second consecutive home ‘dog cover. Seattle is listed as a road favorite for the first time since Week 4 at Arizona in a non-cover in a 20-17 win as 3 ½-point chalk.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Rams opened as 7 ½-point home favorites against the Eagles at the Westgate Superbook last Sunday. Following the announcement of Carson Wentz’s back injury, Los Angeles has moved up to a 12-point favorite at many sports books. The Eagles are 0-2 SU/ATS in the underdog role, as Nick Foles will look to work his magic from last season’s championship run the rest of the season.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Lions have played their last four games indoors, as Detroit will head to not-so-warm weather in Buffalo on Sunday. Game-time temperature is set for 37 degrees and luckily no snow, but Detroit has won only once this season outdoors and that came at Miami in Week 7. Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off a pair of four-point losses to the Dolphins and Jets, while seeking a second win against an NFC foe.

[StarDust Bum]

Deshaun Watston, Texans rally to top Jets
December 15, 2018
By The Associated Press

DENVER (AP) Baker Mayfield capitalized on Denver's depleted cornerback corps and dubious decisions in leading the Cleveland Browns past the Broncos 17-16 on Saturday night, keeping alive their slim hopes of ending the NFL's longest playoff drought.

Mayfield's 2-yard TD toss to Antonio Calloway with just under 12 minutes left provided the winning margin for the Browns (6-7-1). They snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Broncos (6-8).

Improving to 3-28 on the road over the last four seasons, the Browns still have a shot at their first winning season since 2007 and even their first playoff berth since 2002 thanks to their first win over Denver since 1990.

Calloway's touchdown made it 17-13 and came with safety Justin Simmons in coverage because the Broncos were down five cornerbacks.

The Broncos responded with a 13-play drive that ate up more than seven minutes, but coach Vance Joseph inexplicably sent in kicker Brandon McManus for a field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-1 from the Cleveland 6 with 4:35 remaining.

TEXANS 29, JETS 22

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) - Deshaun Watson threw a 14-yard touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins with 2:15 left, lifting the Houston Texans to a 29-22 comeback victory over Sam Darnold and the New York Jets on Saturday night.

After Darnold and the Jets took their first lead of the game on Elijah McGuire's 2-yard touchdown run, Watson and the Texans (10-4) answered right back.

A holding call on cornerback Morris Claiborne on third down prolonged the drive, and Watson completed passes of 20 and 3 yards to Demaryius Thomas and 7 yards to Hopkins to get to New York's 14. Watson then found Hopkins streaking down the left sideline and launched a pass that the receiver somehow came down with despite being tightly covered by Claiborne.

Ka'imi Fairbairn's 40-yard field goal made it 29-22 with 54 seconds left. Darnold and the Jets (4-10) had one more opportunity to try to tie - or win - but Houston held on.