Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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Colts at Texans
December 7, 2018
By BetDSI

by Tom Wilkinson

NFL Betting Preview – Colts at Texans

The Houston Texans are the hottest team in the NFL having won nine straight games and they are running away with the AFC South at 9-3. They host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday in a game that can be seen on CBS. The Colts are battling for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC at 6-6, so this is a huge game for Indianapolis. Let’s look at this Week 14 matchup and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Sunday, December 9, 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Texans -5, O/U 49.5
Colts vs. Texans TV Coverage: CBS

The Colts are almost in a must-win situation, as they are already a game behind Baltimore for the second Wild Card and they have no real chance to catch Houston for the division title. The Colts may look back at last week’s game against Jacksonville with a lot of regret if they miss the playoffs. The Colts couldn’t score at all in a 6-0 defeat. "Obviously we struggled and struggled a lot, but you learn from every game," quarterback Andrew Luck said to the media.

The Colts are 3-3 ATS on the road, with three games going over and three going under. They are averaging about 27 points per game and giving up just over 23 per contest.

The Texans started the season at 0-3 but have not lost since, winning nine in a row. They started the streak with an overtime win against the Colts. The Texans would clinch the AFC South with a win and a loss by Tennessee. The Texans are coming off a good win against Cleveland, but head coach Bill O’Brien said to the media that the team can get better. "We were 0-3 and we're 9-3, so I think we're improved, but are we where we need to be? No. We can always improve. There are so many different areas that we can improve in. That's what we're going to try to do this week."

The Texans have been improved on offense thanks to quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Watson has thrown 12 TD passes and just two interceptions in the last six games. Hopkins has 80 catches for 1,115 yards and eight touchdowns. The Texans also have a defense that is giving up just 19.6 points per game, third in the league.

The Texans are 3-3 ATS at home, with three games going over and three going under. They are averaging just over 25 points per game and giving up 19.6 points per contest.

Line Movement

There has been a little bit of movement on this game, as the line opened with Houston a 4.5-point favorite and that number is now up to -5. It is hard to see this line moving much from the current number and it is not like -5 is a key number anyway, as 4.5 or 5.5 is not much of a difference.

Key Stats

The Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Houston. The Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Colts are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. the AFC South. The Texans are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December.

Looking at the total, the Under is 21-5 in the Colts last 26 games in December. The Under is 7-2 in the Colts last 9 vs. the AFC South. The Under is 7-3 in the Colts last 10 road games. The Under is 11-4 in the Texans last 15 vs. the AFC. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.

Colts vs. Texans Picks

The Texans have been red-hot straight up, and they are 6-3 ATS during their winning streak. The question in this game is how the Colts bounce back from last week’s defeat. Indianapolis has a good offensive line and I expect they will give Luck time to throw this week and I think this game will be decided in the fourth quarter. I will take the points with the Colts in this one.

Colts vs. Texans Pick: Colts +5 at BetDSI
Colts vs. Texans Score Prediction: Colts 30, Texans 27

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Top Props - Rams at Bears
December 7, 2018
By BetDSI

by Tom Wilkinson

NFL Betting Props – Rams at Bears

We get a great matchup on Sunday Night Football on NBC, as the Los Angeles Rams visit the Chicago Bears. The Rams have the No. 2 offense in the NFL, while the Bears have the No. 4 ranked defense. The Bears are expected to have quarterback Mitch Trubisky back this week, after he missed the last two games due to injury. Let’s look at some prop picks for this Week 14 matchup.

Date and Time: Sunday, December 9, 2018, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Rams -3, O/U 51.5
Rams vs. Bears TV Coverage: NBC

Total Points Props
Los Angeles 27.5
Chicago 24.5

I won last week by taking both teams over their point totals, but I am not as excited about going over the totals this week, as Chicago has a very good defense and the Rams can put pressure on the opposing quarterback. I will pass on the total points props this week.

First Team to Score
Los Angeles -130
Chicago +100

I don’t see any value this week in this prop, as the Rams are a slight favorite in the game overall and a slight favorite to score first at odds of -130.

Will Either Team Score in first 6 minutes?
Yes -120
No -110

I am somewhat tempted to take the No on this prop, as it could take a little time for each team to feel each other out and get going in this one.

First Scoring Play
Bears Any Other TD +2500
Bears Field Goal +400
Bears Safety +5000
Bears TD Pass +325
Bears TD Run +650
Rams Any Other TD +2500
Rams Field Goal +350
Rams Safety +5000
Rams TD Pass +275
Rams TD Run +450

I think there is some value on the rushing touchdowns for the first scoring play. The Bears TD run is listed at +650 and if Chicago scores first there is a decent chance that Howard or Cohen gets a rushing touchdown. On the other side, the Rams have Todd Gurley and he usually gets the ball at the goal line, so I think the Rams TD run also has some value at +450. I will play both of these props.

First Score of Game
Touchdown -185
Field Goal or Safety +150

Two weeks ago the price on this prop was -170 and last week it was -210. I liked the TD last week but the price was too high. This week I might hedge a little bit on the previous prop and play the field goal at +150 for a small amount.

Longest TD of Game - 48.5 Yards
Under -115
Over -115

I won taking the over on this prop last week and I like it even more this week. The Bears have some big play threats on offense and the Rams have multiple players who can score from long distance. I think taking the over is the only way to go on this prop.

Quarterback Props

The Bears have an excellent defense so I would lean to the under with the total on Jared Goff and I lean to the under on Trubisky as well. He is coming back from injury and we just don’t know how he will perform. Taking the under on yardage for both quarterbacks is worth a look.

Rams vs. Bears Props Picks

My favorite play on the props this week is the longest TD to be over 48.5 yards. The Rams have a number of players who can score from anywhere on the field, with Gurley, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. The Bears have Cohen and they also have a couple of deep threats in Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller.

I also think the first scoring play being a run is worth a play, as there is value, as we get the Bears are +650 and the Rams at +450. I also may take a look at the numbers on both quarterbacks and go under their totals. I will look at the weather report to see if we get some help with strong winds, which would make passing more difficult.

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Top Total Plays - Week 14
December 7, 2018
By Bookmaker

By Kyle Markus

NFL Football Odds - Top Totals Plays Of Week 14

There is a lot of love for the spread each week in NFL gambling, as bettors focus on which team is going to cover in a particular game. However, an underrated way to pad the bankroll is by correctly pegging the scoring total in a matchup.

The bookmakers are smart and know where to put over/under numbers in order to get close to even action on each side. However, bettors who study a contest close enough can often deduce if a game is going to be higher or lower-scoring than expected.

Here are some of the best scoring total plays in Week 14 of the regular season in NFL wagering.

Odds Analysis - per BookMaker.eu

The Kansas City Chiefs are the highest-scoring team in the NFL and the release of standout running back Kareem Hunt isn’t likely to change that. Kansas City hosts the Baltimore Ravens this week and the oddsmakers have pitted the total at 51.5 points. That may seem a little low at first glance, but gamblers have to remember that Baltimore is now very run-oriented on offense with the addition of dual threat quarterback Lamar Jackson to the lineup. Baltimore is going to run clock and try to keep the ball away from the Chiefs as much as possible. With that in mind, the “under” is the correct choice in this showdown.

The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a scoring total listed at 55.5 points. Even though it is the highest total of any game this week, it still seems low. The Saints have one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL and it is aiming to get back on track after a poor performance last week against the Cowboys. The Buccaneers always put up a ton of yards and can score points in bunches. They also turn the ball over a lot and allow other teams to have good scoring opportunities. This one should have a bunch of points and the “over” is the pick.

The Los Angeles Chargers are big home favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals and there seems to be a good chance they roll up the points early on. The worry is that the Chargers get so far ahead and take their foot off the gas late. The scoring total us 47.5 points, and look for Los Angeles to pull its weight early on and then the Bengals to get a late score to push this “over” the total. The Bengals’ defense is pretty awful and it is going to give up points in bunches until the Chargers decide to throttle it down in this one.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The most intriguing game on the scoring total in Week 14 of the NFL season features the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have a solid quarterback in Derek Carr but not much talent around him. Even though the team scored at a nice pace last week against the Chiefs, don’t let that fool you. Oakland could have a rough time moving the ball consistently against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have an impressive passing game but they won’t have much balance in this one as star running back James Conner is injured and won’t play. The Raiders are likely going to play conservatively and make sure wide receivers Antonio Brown and Juju Smith Schuster don’t beat them.

The scoring total is listed at 51.5 points but that number seems too high. Pittsburgh seems likely to win this game pretty easily but it is not going to be the shootout and the “under” is the easy pick here. This is the best call of the week in NFL gambling.

NFL ATS Pick: The Pittsburgh Steelers-Oakland Raiders game will go “under” the total of 51.5 points

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Value Plays - Week 14
December 7, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 14 Value Plays of the Week

Including this coming spate of games, there are now just 4 weeks left in the regular season, which does not leave a lot of time for the teams currently sitting under the playoff line in each conference. Every game now takes on a huge level of importance for those teams, as well as those above the line looking to land an opening week bye.

As we do every week, we have taken a look at the games on the schedule this weekend and picked out 4 that we like at decent odds. These can be played as singles or maybe lumped together as a parlay.

Whatever the case, let’s get to the picks with all the odds sponsored by YouWager.eu.

Denver Broncos (-4 -105) at San Francisco 49ers

The playoff race in the AFC is really starting to heat up, with the Denver Broncos being one of the teams making a late run. With 3 straight wins, two of which came against likely playoff teams, the Broncos are on a roll and now on the brink of a Wild Card spot. They have historically not performed particularly well in San Francisco, going just 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 visits there, but this may be the worst 49ers team that they have faced in quite some time. You can see the confidence and belief growing in this Broncos team and I think they go on the road and cover this weekend at odds of -105.

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns (OVER 47 -110)

The Panthers are in the midst of a losing skid that needs to end soon if they are to have any shot at returning to the playoffs again this season. A date versus the Cleveland Browns would usually mean that a win is upcoming, but this Cleveland team is not like those of the past. They finally have a QB that can hurt you, although there have also been some rookie mistakes along the way for Baker Mayfield. The Panthers have been brutal on the road, but given that they need to win this one, look for them to try and open things up on offense. We are in for some scoring here, which is why I am on the OVER at odds of -110.

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New York Giants (-3½ -110) at Washington Redskins

Love them or hate them, you have to feel an incredible level of sympathy for the Washington Redskins. Just a few short weeks ago, they looked to be in control of the NFC East. But they have since lost not one, but two QB’s to broken legs, meaning that Mark Sanchez will be the man under center this weekend. Sanchez has not exactly had a stellar career in the NFL and is likely to be a little wobbly in his first start this season. I like the Giants to go on the road and get the win against a team that looked to be defeated. I’m taking the Giants to cover at odds of -110.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (UNDER 51 -110)

The Baltimore Ravens have long been known as one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, with this season being no different. The D will get its toughest test of the season this weekend when they try to slow down Patrick Mahomes and that outstanding Kansas City Chiefs offense. It’s very much the unstoppable force versus the immovable object in this one, and while I think the Ravens can somewhat contain Mahomes, they are still going to lose, with the point total falling UNDER.

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Week 14 Best Bets - Teasers
December 7, 2018
By BetDSI

NFL Week 14 Exotic Betting Options

Sides | Totals

Thanks to a late comeback by the Tennessee Titans a week ago after their sluggish start against the Jets, last week's teaser play was able to cash for the second straight week. After a rough lull there in early-mid November, getting back to cashing these weekly teasers is always a good feeling.

This week there are plenty of teams that fit into the idea of being great teaser plays strictly from a numbers basis, and with some of those teams being highly popular squads in general, you can't help but wonder if Week 14 is one where we see some unexpected outright upsets.

However, you can't let market perception or the potential for bad teams to pull off shocking upsets influence your thinking too much, as this week I'm relying on one very bad team to at least hang around against a team in a great fade spot as part of my teaser. Let's get right to it:

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Week 14: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet

Cincinnati (+21) – New England (-1)

I'll start with the New England Patriots play as they head down to Miami to face the Dolphins where in the past these trips to Miami have been rough for the Pats. Miami has won SU in four of the past five home games with New England, and that's always going to get some attention this week. New England hasn't exactly been the same team on the road as they have been at home this year either (3-3 SU on the road), and this game could end up being closer than the +8 point spread suggests.

However, I do like New England to escape South Beach with a SU win this week as the Pats know that a win this week clinches yet another AFC East title for the franchise.

That's a much different scenario than in recent trips to Miami late in the year, as two of New England's last three losses here have come on December 11th or later in the year when the Pats have had things locked up in the division for awhile. Considering it's these Miami Dolphins that are the only division rival with a shot at catching the Pats, there won't be much looking past Miami this week (and onto Pittsburgh in a week) from New England here.

Granted, I wouldn't be heavily inclined to lay more than a TD with the Patriots in this spot because of the past results in Miami, that Steelers game on deck, and New England's road struggles this season, but teased down to where they've just got to win the game is much more attractive.

Miami is rather lucky to be 6-6 SU as it is, and with only two outright wins in their last six games overall – against the Jets and Bills - this Miami team isn't likely to be one of the NFL home underdogs this week to pull off an outright upset. The Dolphins have been out-gained yardage-wise through the air and on the ground by each of their past four opponents and that shouldn't change this week.

Moving over to the Bengals was a trickier decision considering how bad Cincinnati has been the past six-plus weeks, but teasing them up to three touchdown underdogs against this Chargers team in a horrific spot was ultimately too much value to pass up.

Don't get me wrong, the Bengals are a bad team that's all but quit on the year and will use injuries as their main excuse for falling off after a 4-1 SU start, but if there is one thing this Bengals organization has plenty of experience in, it's playing well while in the spoiler role.

Famously that came to a head last season when they knocked off Baltimore in Week 17 to get Buffalo into the playoffs, but for a team that's only made the playoffs seven times during Marvin Lewis' now 16-year tenure (and not won a single playoff game in any of those seven years), playing spoiler and pushing for that 8-8 SU record is something Bengals fans know there team loves to do. Cincinnati isn't going to win SU this week against the Chargers, but they should be able to keep the game within three TD's.

I say that because the sandwich spots don't get much tighter than this for the Chargers. It's a week since they came back and shocked the Steelers in Pittsburgh on SNF, and just four days before they visit Kansas City on TNF for one last crack at an AFC West title.

Welcoming in a Bengals team with a backup QB minus their best WR, and 1-6 SU in their last seven overall (0-7 ATS), can't be too exciting at all for LA given where they've come from and what they've got on deck. It's all about getting the outright win and staying healthy this week and if they give up a garbage time score or two after building a lead, do you think they'll even care?

On the surface this is such a strong case for a flat spot for the Chargers and I simply can't ignore it. Yet, because it is the Bengals, teasing them up to getting 20+ points is the “safer” route to go, as they've only lost by more than that margin twice all year. Those two losses came to Kansas City and New Orleans at the height of explosiveness for both those offenses and much earlier in the year when playoff futures weren't near the forefront of team's collective consciousness.

So while I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bengals choke away another week here, it's not like the Chargers don't have a history of struggling late in seasons either. Teased up, the margin is just too big for L.A. to really cover given the spot, and as long as the Bengals can hang around for as long as possible, a 10-20 point Chargers win is likely where this game finishes.

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SNF - Rams at Bears
December 7, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 14 SNF Betting Preview
L.A. Rams vs Chicago Bears

Last week's play on the 'under' for SNF never really had a chance, as both the Chargers and Steelers were willing to trade scores with one another basically the whole night. It was very interesting to see the Steelers end up choking their big lead away, as LA has basically locked up a playoff spot now, is a win or two away from officially clinching.

This week it's the other L.A. team under the bright SNF lights, as the Rams visit Chicago to take on another division leader in the Bears. The Rams clinched their division title a week ago with their win over the Lions, and now can firmly set their gaze on the #1 seed overall in the NFC. Can they further that goal with a win in the Windy City on SNF?

YouWager.eu Odds: L.A. (-3); Total set at 51.5

Right off the bat it's important to note that this will be the coldest game for the Rams all season and that's always something to consider here. The whole warm weather team playing in the cold narrative probably gets overplayed a lot, but it should mean something here as we've yet to see the Rams get tested in that type of environment.

All of their earlier prime time games were at home this season, and their only two road games since the start of November have both been played in domes. Having the Saints still on their heels for top seed in the NFC does negate some of the post-playoff clinching fade angles, but this Rams team has been playing with fire against good teams for a few weeks now.

Looking at the market, it's interesting to note all of the 'under' (70%) money that's already come in as this really shapes up on paper as one of those offense vs defense type matchups. Everyone knows how dynamic the Rams attack is, and the Bears stellar defensive play this year has gotten plenty of recognition as well, so it will likely be all about which one of those units will have more success. The wealth of 'under' money suggests many appear to be siding with the Bears defense in that argument if forced to answer, as I do believe that's the side to take here.

Chicago's offense should get a boost with QB Mitchell Trubisky returning, and that may be the spark to keep them hot on what the forecast suggests will be a cold (26 degrees F) Chicago night. This Rams defense has given up a boatload of yards and points for much of the past five weeks, as they just ended a three-week run of allowing 30+ when they held Detroit to just 16 points a week ago. Detroit did miss on most of their opportunities though with three FG's inside 35 yards, and a end zone INT to end the game.

Winning teams don't make those type of mistakes, and when you consider that the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Saints – all three winning teams – were the three to put up 30+ on L.A. during that recent stretch mentioned earlier, you've got to like the Bears chances – with or without Trubisky – to threaten that number. If that's the case, for as good as the Rams offense is, I've got a tough time seeing them score 30+ in this spot against the league's 3rd best defense in yards allowed, and 5th best in points allowed.

For one, the cold is going to be something that negatively affects the Rams players more than the Bears in all likelihood, and cold weather does tend to inherently favor the better defense already. Fading teams after clinching the division is a theory that takes on a little less weight this week with the race for the NFC's #1 seed a bigger story, but it is still lingering around.

And if the Saints were to lose on the road against Tampa Bay earlier in the day – remember, Tampa beat New Orleans in Week 1 – there is likely to be some drop-off in intensity for the Rams as well. Not the strongest angle by any means, but still something worthy of consideration.

Finally, there is also the statistical standpoint that both of these teams have the exact same net yardage per play numbers (+0.6) on the year. Based on that alone, when you apply some sort of home field advantage number to the Bears spread, Chicago should be the team laying points here. Obviously the health of Trubisky has a lot to do with where the point spread was released and where it currently sits, but getting a FG at home in the cold is too good to pass up.

Statistically, the situation favors the Bears to cash a ticket, and situationally it does as well. So give me the points with this Bears team that's 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home, and on a 5-1 ATS run off a SU loss. With the Rams a rough 0-3-1 ATS in their last four against a winning team and looking ahead to spending the rest of the regular season in sunny California (and Arizona), I think we get that 'dud' game from the Rams this week – every team tends to have one, just ask the Saints – as the Bears cover this number and probably win it outright.

Best Bet: Chicago +3

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Monday's Best Bet
December 7, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 14 MNF Betting Preview
Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks

For the 4th consecutive week, the Minnesota Vikings find themselves under the national spotlight as they've now gone coast-to-coast in the past two weeks. Last week it was the Sunday afternoon national spot up in New England for the Vikings, and this week it's out in the Pacific Northwest for MNF.

So far the Vikings are 1-2 SU and ATS when the nation is watching, and they really need to even that record up if they want to remain in a playoff spot currently.

Can the Vikings do it, or will this three-game winning streak the Seattle Seahawks find themselves on continue?

YouWager.eu Odds: Seattle (-3); Total set at 45

The Seattle Seahawks have already outperformed nearly all of the expectations many had for this team this season. Season win totals for Seattle closed at 7.5 with an underdog price tag on the 'over', and with 7 wins already with the final quarter of the season remaining, bettors that took that 'over' are in great position.

Seattle's still got games against San Francisco and Arizona left this year, so getting to at least the 8-8 SU mark should be accomplished. But this team is feeling themselves right now after three straight wins, and with the 5th seed currently in their possession in the NFC, the Seahawks are eyeing much bigger goals now.

Considering four of their five losses this year have come against teams that currently have eight or more wins (Chicago, L.A. Chargers, L.A. Rams -twice), it's quite easy to say that preseason projections for Seattle appear to be quite off. I mean they are one win away from cashing an 'over' on their season win total with a month left to go in the season right?

Yet, Seattle's also been the beneficiary of a very advantageous schedule, as the only win they've got over a team with a winning record currently came against the Dallas Cowboys. They've beaten Green Bay in a down year for the Packers, beaten Carolina amidst their current free-fall, and their other four wins have come against San Francisco, Detroit, Oakland, and Arizona, four teams with a combined 11-37 SU record. That's about as cupcake as it gets in this league, as Seattle's the only NFC team that's currently got a winning record with a negative (-0.4) net yardage per play number.

Minnesota on the other hand ranks Top 9 in the league in net yards per play (0.3), and have just as many losses (5) as the Seahawks do. Seattle's home field advantage has a long and proud history of being one of the better ones in the league, but that's all that's really applied here in this point spread (-3), despite Seattle being the ones having won three in a row, and Minnesota losing three of their last five, including both of there recent road games.

To me, that should be viewed as a huge warning sign to the 60%+ Seattle backers here as a suggestion that the Seahawks probably aren't nearly as good of a team as recent trends for them may suggest.

Furthermore, with this being the MNF game, Minnesota will already have the knowledge of Chicago's result, and at worst the Vikings have got to keep pace. We all saw how important home field was in how they played during their playoff run a year ago, and for them to have any shot at a home playoff game this year, this is a “must-win” for the Vikings.

Minnesota's the team with the much better defense – especially against the run which is Seattle's strength – and the whole reason they spent the money to bring QB Kirk Cousins in this year was to go out and win games like this for them.

The last Top 10 defense in terms of yards allowed the Seahawks faced were the L.A. Chargers at the beginning of November, and not coincidentally, it was the only time in Seattle's last eight games that they were held below 27 points. That 25-17 Seattle loss also came at home in a game that was argued at the time that probably the wrong team was favored (Seattle closed -1), and this game with the Vikings definitely has a similar-sounding echo.

So give me the points with this Vikings team that's extremely used to the prime time spotlight these days and more accustomed to dealing with better quality teams. With a defense that's a league-best at getting off the field on 3rd down (29.9% conversion rate for Vikings opponents), I'll trust that Kirk Cousins shows up and does what he was paid/overpaid to do and go out and win a game in a tough spot on the road for this team.

Best Bet: Minnesota +3

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 14
December 7, 2018
By Micah Roberts

There are a few key divisional games in Sunday's Week 14 action and the wise guys have jumped all over a couple of sides, and in one case two separate groups are on opposite sides.

"They're (sharps) taking both sides in the Colts-Texans game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "They laid -4 with the Texans and some others took +4.5 with the Colts and also the money-line."

The Colts money-line was +195 and +190 and it's down to +180 with the Texans being -210. The Colts fell to 6-6 last week while the AFC South-leading Texans are 9-3 riding a nine-game win streak (6-2-1 ATS). Traditionally, the road team is 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine meetings, including the Texans 37-34 win in Week 4 at Indy after an 0-3 start. The Texans haven't lost since. One team is fighting for a wild card while the other is fighting for a bye and home field.

William Hill sports books have seen 81 percent of the tickets written on the game siding with the Texans, but only 58 percent of the actual cash.

The NFC East has a battle for first place with the Eagles visiting Dallas and there's no dispute between the sharps here.

"We've had two max bets on the Eagles and they're also taking the Eagles money-line as well," said Simbal. "They took +4, +3.5, and +170, forcing us down to +160."

CG Tech books are showing the Cowboys -3 (-120) as of Friday afternoon while most books are -3.5 EVEN with the exception of the South Point who are -3 flat, the only shop that uses exclusively flat numbers. Just for future reference if monitoring line moves and getting a feel for what sharps are playing, the South Point number is the most important number to watch.

In the Eagles favor this week is that the road team has covered 11 of the past 14 meetings, including the Cowboys' 27-20 win at Philly four weeks ago which started the Cowboys current four-game win streak. Last week, the Eagles won two-straight for the first time of the season and even their record at 6-6. William Hill books have seen 60 percent of the tickets bet on the Cowboys while 62 percent of the actual cash has come in on the Eagles. It's the perfect example of Pro's versus regular Joe's.

The Cardinals had a huge win last week at Green Bay handing the Packers their first home loss of the season while also getting Mike McCarthy fired. The Lions have lost five of their last six games but the sharps like them this week.

"We've taken Lions wagers at -1.5 and -2 and are sitting -2.5 (-120) now," said Simbal. "This is game where we're not going to get much public support on the home team, either."

The Cardinals are 6-5-1 ATS showing they're better than their weekly rating despite only winning three games this season. The home team is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, for whatever that's worth.

The divide at William Hill books isn't as strong with only 64 percent of the best and 65 percent of the wagers on the Lions. Detroit won 35-23 at home in last seasons meeting.

Perhaps the most interesting game of the day is the Bears getting points at home against the 11-1 Rams.

"They played the Bears at +3.5," said Simbal who now has the Rams -3 flat. MGM properties and the Westgate Superbook have the Rams -3 (EVEN), everyone else is -3 flat.

William Hill books are showing 76 percent of the tickets written and 71 percent of cash taken on the Rams. It's expected to be 28 degrees Sunday night at Chicago and QB Mitchell Trubisky is expected to start after missing the past two weeks (shoulder).

Simbal says his largest public games (parlay wagers) are the Cowboys, Chiefs (-7 EVEN vs Ravens) and Saints (-9 at Tampa Bay). William Hill's most public plays with tickets counts are the Texans (81 percent), Saints (86 percent), Giants -3.5 (88 percent) at Washington and the Chargers -14 (80 percent) against the Bengals.

Of those games, the most intriguing looks to be a possible playoff preview with the Ravens at Kansas City. Lamar Jackson is starting again at QB despite Joe Flacco being healthy, and why not? The Ravens have won all three of his starts and coupled with the No, 1 defense, the Ravens are in a groove. The Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five after covering their first seven games.

"I think it's an interesting dynamic with Jackson running the ball," said Simbal. "Teams are having trouble with it and in this case, Kansas City's defense has been having all kinds of trouble defending traditional offenses and now they have to deal with the QB taking off and running."

Most books in Las Vegas have the Chiefs -6.5 with a total at 51.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
December 8, 2018
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Steelers are 10-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since Oct 13, 2013 as a favorite coming off a game where they allowed at least 30 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 coming off a road win where they scored at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since Nov 02, 2014 after a road game in which Keenan Allen had a receiving touchdown.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:

-- The 49ers are 0-10 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since Oct 02, 2016 at home coming off a game where they allowed at least 24 points.

-- The Falcons are 0-10 OU (-9.6 ppg) since Oct 19, 2014 off a game as a favorite where they scored at least seven points less than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 7-0 OU (10.9 ppg) since Oct 30, 2016 coming off a game where David Johnson had at least 20 rushes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Packers are 10-0 OU (7.6 ppg) since Oct 30, 2016 coming off a home game where they scored less points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-12 OU (-7.7 ppg) since Oct 26, 2015 coming off a road game where they gained at least 22 first downs.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams at home after an overtime loss on the road last week are 52-79-3 ATS. Active against Chicago.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-12 ATS (-9.58 ppg) at home when they allowed 3-plus sacks in each of the last two weeks.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-20 OU (-8.32 ppg) on the road vs a team that is averaging at least 35 passes per game. 0-4 this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 14
December 8, 2018
By Chris David

Bettors expecting points in the early action last week took it on the chin as the ‘under’ posted an 8-1 mark in the1:00 p.m. ET starts. Fortunately, if you weren’t capped out, the ‘over’ rallied with a 4-1 performance in the final five games and all of those results to the high side were clear-cut winners. Overall, the ‘under’ went 11-5 in Week 13 and for all those pundits that believe the NFL has turned into a glorified video game, the low side now sits at sits at 99-93 on the season.

2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 13 5-11 6-10 7-9

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 93-99 97-95 86-101-5

2018 RESULTS - OTHER
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 13 0-1 2-4 0-3 1-1

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 27-19 27-35 18-20 10-4

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 14 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Baltimore at Kansas City: 49 to 51
Atlanta at Green Bay: 48 to 51
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: 57 ½ to 54 ½
L.A. Rams at Chicago: 54 to 51

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 14 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Philadelphia at Dallas: Over 94%
Carolina at Cleveland: Over 92%
Atlanta at Green Bay: Over 88%
Indianapolis at Houston: Over 88%
Denver at San Francisco: Over 87%

Final Quarter

As we approach the last four weeks of the regular season, it’s always good to keep an eye on seasonal tendencies. Whether you press or fade the trends is up to you but be aware of them this December.

Chicago, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay have been the best ‘over’ teams in the NFL, all producing an 8-4 (67%) mark to the high side. The Bengals (30.9 PPG) and Buccaneers (29.6 PPG) have helped that cause with their weak defensive units but the Bears (20.1 PPG) are ranked fourth in scoring defense. Chicago owns the fifth best scoring offense at 28.7 points per game and it’s also seen a lot of lower totals posted due to its solid defense.

Denver owns the best ‘under’ record at 9-3 and that includes a current streak to the low side of five in a row heading into Week 14.

The Eagles defeated the Patriots in a Super Bowl shootout last season but the pair both own 8-4 ‘under’ marks this season.

Carolina and Pittsburgh own the best ‘over’ marks at home (5-1) while Tampa Bay (6-0) and Kansas City (6-1) have been tremendous leans to the high side on the road.

Dallas and Miami haven’t travelled well offensively and both own 5-1 ‘under’ marks on the road. Meanwhile, Philadelphia continues to play solid defense at home and that’s contributed to a great ‘under’ (6-1) mark. Denver and Minnesota have both seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 at home.

Divisional Matchups

The downward trend in these contests continued last week with a 4-2 record, which pushed the ‘under’ to 35-27 (56%) in divisional games this season.

Indianapolis at Houston: The Texans captured a 37-34 overtime win in Week 4 over the Colts in game that should’ve probably ended in a tie. Houston did blow a big lead and it was outscored 21-10 in the second-half by Indy. Either way, the ‘over’ (48 ½) was never in doubt. Prior to that result, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series but Colts QB Andrew Luck only played in one of those games. In four games at Houston, Luck has gone 2-2 with a 3-1 ‘over’ mark and Indy has averaged 25 PPG. The Colts are coming off a rare NFL shutout loss (4 total this season) last week and its road numbers (22.8 PPG) haven’t been as glaring. Take out the 34 points they allowed to Indy in Week 4 and the Texans have surrendered 15.8 PPG in their last eight games.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Revenge spot for the Saints, who dropped a 48-40 decision to Tampa Bay in Week 1 at home and the ‘over’ (49 ½) hit by halftime. The total (54 ½) has been pushed up for the rematch but the Buccaneers defense (13 PPG) has been solid the last two weeks and much better at home (19.3 PPG) this season. New Orleans is coming off a 13-10 loss to Dallas, its worst offensive effort of the season. The Saints are on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and their defense (12.3 PPG) has been great during this span. Make a note that the ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair from Raymond James Stadium and last year’s ‘over’ result in Week 17 was very fortunate to cash.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Bills stunned the Jets 41-10 on the road in Week 10 with their best output of the season and the ‘over’ (37 ½) slid in easily. The total for round two is in the same neighborhood (38 ½) and this seems like another toss-up with both squads rolling out their rookie quarterbacks. Even though the Jets put up 22 points last week, they had a defensive TD and five field goals. New York (300.4 YPG) and Buffalo (285.7 PPG) are ranked 30th and 31st in total offense, so expecting a crisp offensive game is likely a stretch.

New England at Miami: The Patriots ran all over the Dolphins for a 38-7 win in Week 4 at home and that lopsided margin helped the ‘under’ (50 ½) cash. A lot of pundits are pointing to New England’s struggles in Miami, in particular a 27-20 loss last season. Including that setback, the Patriots are 1-4 in their last five trips to South Florida. Miami enters this game on a 4-0 run to the ‘under’ and expecting a big effort from its offense (302.1 YPG) doesn’t seem likely due to a patched-up offensive line and banged up receiving group.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: The ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run in this series and has hit in seven of the past 10 encounters. The Redskins have been decimated by injuries all season and it’s tough to imagine the offense doing much on Sunday. The Giants (29.3 PPG) have shown some pop the last four weeks and that’s resulted in a 3-1 ‘over’ mark. Due to the injuries at QB, New York has been made a favorite. For what it’s worth, the Redskins are 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in that role this season and the defense (18.5 PPG) has carried them in those games.

Philadelphia at Dallas: Big NFC East game here and the Eagles will be looking to avenge a 27-20 loss to the Cowboys when the pair met in Week 10 from Philadelphia. That game was 13-3 at half before both teams combined for 31 points in the final half to cash the ’over’ (45 ½). The total opened (43 ½) a tad lower for this contest and scoring on the second-ranked Dallas defense (18.6 PPG) won’t be easy. The Eagles defense (26.4 PPG) hasn’t been as sharp on the road but that number drops to 21 PPG if you take out the woodshed treatment they got at New Orleans (48-7). Prior to the first meeting this season, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ posted a 2-1 record last week and two of the results were never in doubt. The Titans-Jaguars barely went ‘over’ this past Thursday and including that result, the high side sits at 22-19 through 41 primetime games.

Primetime Total Results (O/U): TNF (9-5), SNF (5-8), MNF (8-6)

L.A. Rams at Chicago: Despite averaging 32.1 PPG on the road, the Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season. Against teams above .500, Los Angeles has surrendered 32 PPG. Chicago is averaging 31 PPG at home and that’s led to a 4-2 ‘over’ mark. This game is more important for the Rams, who are battling New Orleans for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Los Angeles is averaging 158.7 rushing yards per game on the road, which is ranked first. The temperatures will be low (30s) for this game by kickoff and I would expect the Rams to try to grind this one out and stay the course for the top seed. Chicago has played in three primetime games this season and the ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in those contests but the ‘under’ could easily be 3-0 if it wasn’t for a few breaks.

Minnesota at Seattle: This is a tough contest to handicap and should be viewed as a possible playoff elimination game for both clubs. The Vikings defense (25.7 PPG) hasn’t been sharp on the road but outside of a game against the Jets, the other five teams were all formidable opponents. Seattle has been on a roll offensively in its last four games (32.3 PPG) and that’s led to a 4-0 ‘over’ mark. The conditions may not be pleasant for this game and it will be interesting to see if the Seahawks top-ranked rush offense (148.8 YPG) can move the ball against the Vikings run defense (99.2 YPG), ranked ninth.

Fearless Predictions

The hot streak ($220) came to an end last Sunday but the bankroll remains positive ($1,085) on the season. We’ve only got 16 plays left in the regular season so let’s try to get back on track. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Carolina-Cleveland 47
Best Under: Philadelphia-Dallas 44
Best Team Total: Over Green Bay 27 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 42 ½ Indianapolis-Houston
Under 48 ½ N.Y. Giants-Washington
Under 58 ½ L.A. Rams-Chicago

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 14
December 8, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens at Chiefs (-6 ½, 51) – 1:00 PM EST

All of the sudden, Baltimore (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) has come back to life following a three-game losing streak along with quarterback Joe Flacco being sidelined. Rookie Lamar Jackson has led the Ravens to three straight wins, including his first road win as a starter in last Sunday’s 26-16 triumph at Atlanta as 2 ½-point underdogs. Baltimore ran all over the Atlanta defense to the tune of 207 yards, including 75 and a touchdown from Jackson, while holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes.

The Chiefs (10-2 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) are on track for a home-field advantage in the AFC as they hold a one-game edge over the Patriots entering Sunday, although New England owns the tiebreaker. Kansas City has yet to lose at Arrowhead Stadium this season (5-0), but have failed to cover in their last two home victories against Arizona and Denver. The Chiefs outlasted the Raiders last Sunday, 40-33 as 14-point road favorites, led by Patrick Mahomes’ seventh game this season throwing at least four touchdown passes.

These two teams haven’t met since 2015 when the Chiefs routed the Ravens, 34-14 (without Flacco) as 6 ½-point road favorites. Baltimore has won in each of its past three visits to Arrowhead Stadium, including a 9-6 triumph back in 2012. The Ravens own a 2-0 SU/ATS record in its last two opportunities as a road underdog, while last being listed as a ‘dog of at least 6 ½ points in a 2016 loss at Dallas.

Best Bet: Chiefs 27, Ravens 21

Colts at Texans (-4 ½, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

Houston (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) dug themselves an 0-3 hole out of the gate, but hasn’t lost since September. Nine wins later, the Texans are on the doorstep of capturing the AFC South title which seemed like a pipe dream in October. The latest victory came in last Sunday’s 29-13 blowout of the Browns as five-point home favorites, even though Houston scored only one offensive touchdown. Deshaun Watson has gone through five of the past six games without throwing an interception, while the defense has allowed 21 points or fewer in seven of the previous eight contests.

The Colts (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) also rebounded from a slow start (1-5) to get back into the Wild Card race. Indianapolis pulled off five consecutive wins to cross over the .500 threshold, but the Colts were stunned last Sunday in a 6-0 defeat at Jacksonville as four-point favorites. Yes, Indianapolis held Jacksonville out of the end zone, but the offense was limited to below 24 points for the first time since scoring 16 in a Week 3 defeat at Philadelphia.

In the first matchup at Lucas Oil Field in Week 4, the Texans built a 28-10 advantage before the Colts roared back to force overtime on an Andrew Luck touchdown pass in the final minutes of regulation. Indianapolis took the lead in overtime with an Adam Vinatieri field goal, but the Texans kicked two field goals to pick up the 37-34 victory to begin this nine-game winning streak. The Colts have seen success at NRG Stadium over the years by winning three of the past four matchups in Houston.

Best Bet: Colts 19, Texans 14

Eagles at Cowboys (-3 ½, 44) – 4:25 PM EST

The party isn’t over yet for the defending champions, as Philadelphia (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) is one victory away from pulling into a tie for the top spot in the NFC East. The Eagles have suffered through the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, but are coming off a pair of home divisional wins over the Giants and Redskins to remain alive for a playoff berth in the NFC. Philadelphia pulled away from Washington last Monday night, 28-13 to cash as 5 ½-point favorites, as the Eagles scored 14 fourth quarter points to improve to 3-1 inside the NFC East.

The lone loss for Philadelphia came at home to Dallas last month, 27-20 as 7 ½-point favorites. The Cowboys (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) broke a 20-20 tie late in the fourth quarter on an Ezekiel Elliott 1-yard touchdown run (his second of the game) to give the Cowboys their fourth victory at Lincoln Financial Field in the last five seasons.

That victory turned things around for Dallas, who has won four straight games, including a Week 13 triumph as a home underdog against New Orleans to snap the Saints’ 10-game winning streak. The Cowboys have done most of their damage during this stretch as a favorite, but Dallas has slumped to a 2-3 ATS mark in the underdog role this season.

Best Bet: Eagles 24, Cowboys 20

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (2-3 last week, 32-31-2 this season)
Panthers -2 ½
Falcons +5 ½
Buccaneers +8
Bengals +14
Steelers -10 ½

Chris David (2-3 last week, 43-21-1 this season)
Patriots -7 ½
Jets +3
Lions -2 ½
Rams -3
Vikings +3 ½

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 48 – Bengals at Chargers (1-0 last week, 8-5 this season)

Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious all season long by allowing at least 30 points six times. The Bengals are currently on a 4-1 OVER run after hitting a rare UNDER in last week’s 24-10 defeat to the Broncos. Cincinnati will have its hands full as it travels cross-country to face Los Angeles, as the Chargers have scored 78 points in the past two wins over Arizona and Pittsburgh. The defensive numbers have improved for the Lightning Bolts since the first month, but it’s hard to ignore how explosive L.A.’s offense is along with Cincinnati’s struggles to stop the opposition.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Broncos have won three consecutive games and remain in the race for one of the two Wild Card spots in the AFC. Denver hits the road for the second straight week after blowing out Cincinnati as the Broncos are laying points once again. The Broncos travel west to face the 49ers, who have lost three straight and nine of their past 10 games. Denver opened up as six-point favorites last Monday at the Westgate Superbook, but that line has dipped to 3 ½ at most books. Interestingly enough, this only the third time this season that San Francisco is listed as a home underdog, going 1-1 SU/ATS in its first two opportunities.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Redskins’ season was on the up-and-up at 6-3, but back-to-back defeats and the loss of quarterback Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury ended any playoff hopes for Washington. The Redskins turned to Colt McCoy last Monday against the Eagles and he left with injury in a 15-point loss, setting the stage for Mark Sanchez to start at home when the Giants come to town. New York opened as a 1 ½-point underdog last Monday prior to Washington’s game at Philadelphia, but the Giants have been flipped to a 3 ½-point ‘dog. Washington has thrived in the home underdog role this season by posting a 4-0 ATS mark.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

It took until Week 14, but the Bills are favored for the first time this season when they host the Jets. Buffalo destroyed New York in Week 10 at Met Life Stadium, 41-10 as seven-point underdogs, while outgaining the Jets, 451-199. The last time the Bills were favored came in Week 17 last season at Miami, as Buffalo posted a solid 5-1-1 ATS record in 2017 when laying points.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 14
December 8, 2018
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13

Week 14

1) Indianapolis +5 (988)
2) Kansas City -6.5 (797)
3) L.A. Rams -3 (791)
4) Buffalo -3 (761)
5) N.Y. Giants -3.5 (711)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 14 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Jacksonville (+4.5) 108 Tennessee (-4.5) 188
Baltimore (+6.5) 486 Kansas City (-6.5) 797
Indianapolis (+5) 988 Houston (-5) 470
Carolina (-2.5) 357 Cleveland (+2.5) 659
Atlanta (+5.5) 267 Green Bay (-5.5) 534
New Orleans (-8) 581 Tampa Bay (+8) 312
N.Y. Jets (+3) 133 Buffalo (-3) 761
New England (-7.5) 366 Miami (+7.5) 596
L.A. Rams (-3) 791 Chicago (+3) 694
N.Y. Giants (-3.5) 711 Washington (+3.5) 189
Denver (-4.5) 531 San Francisco (+4.5) 605
Cincinnati (+14) 130 L.A. Chargers (-14) 317
Detroit (-2.5) 283 Arizona (+2.5) 311
Philadelphia (+3.5) 663 Dallas (-3.5) 539
Pittsburgh (-10.5) 189 Oakland (+10.5) 526
Minnesota (+3.5) 580 Seattle (-3.5) 573


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 3-2 7-8 47%
4 3-2 10-10 50%
5 1-4 11-14 44%
6 1-4 12-18 40%
7 4-1 16-19 46%
8 5-0 21-19 53%
9 5-0 26-19 58%
10 2-3 28-22 56%
11 2-3 30-25 55%
12 2-3 32-28 53%
13 2-3 34-31 52%
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 9, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM New York Jets Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Carolina Panthers Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM New England Patriots Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1:00 PM New York Giants Washington Redskins
4:05 PM Cincinnati Bengals Los Angeles Chargers
4:05 PM Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM Detroit Lions Arizona Cardinals
4:25 PM Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Oakland Raiders
8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Chicago Bears

Monday, December 10, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks


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NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............16-11-0.....59.25%.....+19.50

********************

Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals.....................5 - 4..................+3.00....................2 - 3................-6.50...............-3.50

[Udog]

Cowboys LT Tyron Smith (neck) is expected to play today at home against the Eagles. Dak Prescott was dropped for seven sacks in his absence last week.
Current Pointspread: DAL -3
Current Total: 45


According to reports, Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (shoulder) is expected to play today @ Texans.
Current Pointspread: Colts +4
Current Total:49.5

[Udog]

Essentials - Week 14
Tony Mejia


Baltimore at Kansas City (-6.5/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: If Lamar Jackson is still unbeaten as a starting QB in the NFL when this one is over, Joe Flacco better get used to wearing a baseball cap on the sidelines. The 11-year starter has been out the past few weeks after injuring his hip in a Nov. 4 loss to Pittsburgh but has practiced enough that he’d ordinarily be starting this game if it weren’t for the rookie sporting the 3-0 record as the fill-in. The Ravens are averaging 4.4 points more with Jackson under center than with Flacco, racking up 28.5 more yards per game. The 21-year-old has completed 39 of 65 passes while running for 88 yards per game b ut has done his damage against three teams with sub-.500 records.

To pull off an upset over the Chiefs, Jackson will need to extend drives with his legs and complete enough passes to keep pace with the league’s highest-scoring offense (37.0 ppg). Safety Eric Berry won’t return for the Chiefs but is getting closer. The Ravens defense is likely to be without starting safety Tony Jefferson, which would be a significant loss if he can’t make it back from an ankle injury. Standout corner Marlon Humphrey should play, but Patrick Mahomes is likely to have a number of matchups to exploit due to the pressure Travis Kelce will put on the defense. Temperatures will warm up to just above freezing and hang around the mid-30’s.

Indianapolis at Houston (-4.5/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Texans won’t be able to clinch the AFC South since the Titans won on Thursday, but they can move to the brink of capturing a third division title in four years by winning their 10th straight game. Houston has won its last three home games by at least 16 points and square off against the team they saved their season against back in Week 4. After starting 0-3, the Texans finally managed to get on the board this season after surviving blowing a 28-10 lead in a game where Andrew Luck threw four TD passes.

The Colts are now the team in must-win mode, looking to bounce back from being blanked by Jacksonville last Sunday to drag them down into a pack of AFC teams on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned. Center Ryan Kelly is out with a knee injury and has been a major asset when out there, so the fact Indy’s offensive front got soundly beat down by the Jags last week is disconcerting. WR T.Y. Hilton (shoulder) and TE Eric Ebron (back) will be in the mix if Luck is given time to find him. The resurgent quarterback had thrown for at least three touchdowns in eight straight games before being held to under five yards per completion in Jacksonville. Luck completed 40 passes for 464 yards in the first meeting, both season-highs. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney each sacked him twice.

Carolina (-1/47.5) at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Cam Newton participated full and deemed himself ready to play. His shoulder issue is obviously a concern. The four interceptions he threw against the Bucs last week may be one indication it’s really bothering him, but his miscues were also made due to questionable decision-making. After not throwing for a few days this week, we’ll know early how healthy he looks. With Myles Garrett on the hunt and Gregg Williams’ set to attack despite the absence of prized rookie safety Denzel Ward, this is set to be one heck of a chess match. Newton will have to make due without one of his top targets with TE Greg Olson done after breaking his foot again.

The Browns will have center J.C. Tretter snapping to Baker Mayfield and calling out signals, so there’s a good chance they can rebound after being held to just 13 points by Houston last week, snapping a run of three straight games topping 20 following the firing of head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Nick Chubb got just nine carries last week after gaining 345 yards on 70 carries during the surge, so the expectation is that Freddie Kitchens will go out of his way to get him going early. That might set up some nice play-action opportunities. Wind isn’t expected on the southern shore of Lake Erie, but Sunday’s high temperature “may” climb above the freezing point. Still, compared to what it can feel like this time of year, Newton might arrive in beachwear.

Atlanta at Green Bay (-4/50), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The first game of the post-Mike McCarthy era finds the Packers hosting one of the few teams in the conversation with them for most disappointing. While Aaron Rodgers has played most of the season limited by a knee injury, he’s still got a 21-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Matt Ryan has thrown for 25 scores and only been picked up five times but hasn’t won since Nov. 4, dropping four straight. One of these quarterbacks will only have four wins after Week 14.

Truth be told, Rodgers is probably far more concerned that he’s not going to have tackle Bryan Buluaga more than he’s bemoaning the fact McCarthy won’t be out there calling plays. Interim head coach Joe Philbin will get those honors, although Rodgers will obviously run what he thinks will work best against a defense that will have LB Deion Jones back for his second game since Week 1. After being forced to deal with Baltimore’s Jackson last week, this more conventional matchup should help him get his feet under him. The defense may have to do the heavy lifting since the Falcons haven’t reached the 20-point mark since Nov. 4. Snow isn’t expected but the frozen tundra will be enveloped by temperatures that aren’t likely to reach 30 degrees. Wind gusts won’t be substantial but are expected to be in the 10-15 mile per hour range.

New Orleans (-9.5/54.5) at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Saints will look to avoid getting swept by a Bucs team that up until November’s final Thursday, handed them their only loss. Drew Brees has been intercepted in consecutive games for the first time this season and was stuck running for his life often by the Cowboys, so not having left tackle Terron Armstead again due to a pectoral injury could prove troublesome since the Bucs were able to get after Newton in last week’s upset and have a healthier front seven than they’ve had in weeks. Michael Thomas (ankle) will be around to serve as his top target and will be working against a banged-up secondary that can at least count on veteran corner Brett Grimes being out there despite a knee issue.

Jameis Winston watched from the sideline as Ryan Fitzpatrick racked up four touchdown passes in the season opener, throwing two deep balls to Desean Jackson, who will miss this contest with a thumb injury. O.J. Howard caught two balls for 54 yards but is out with an ankle injury, so the Saints defense will get a decidedly different look from Winston, who engineered a fourth-quarter comeback in Week 17 of the ’17 season in his last outing against New Orleans. He was intercepted three times. Tampa Bay hasn’t swept a season series from the Saints since 2007. Although the high is expected to be 75 degrees, inclement weather is also a possibility since a threat of thunderstorms exists and wind gusts as high as 14 miles per hour could factor in.

New England (-9/48.5) at Miami, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Dolphins won five of six from the Patriots in Miami from ’07-’12 but have only won once in the past five years, making the “Pats struggle in South Florida” narrative a little stale. Most of the games have indeed been close, which is what bettors taking points and fading Tom Brady in December will be clinging to. The future Hall of Famer is 86-37 in all road games this month but is just 1-5 in South Florida and has a losing record there over his career (7-9). He’ll have his full complement of weapons in place against a Dolphins defense that will be missing corner Xavien Howard (knee). There are still excellent playmakers to be wary of in LB Kiko Alonso and safety Reshad Jones, but Miami ranks in the league’s top four in fewest sacks with just 20, so Brady should have time to dissect.

The Patriots have only 19 sacks – tied with the Giants for second-fewest behind Oakland’s 10, so there’s a good chance that Ryan Tannehill can also have success since he’s thrown five touchdowns since returning two weeks ago, pushing the Colts to the brink in Indy and holding off Buffalo at home last week. He’ll have Brady favorite Danny Amendola to throw to and is expected to deal with a secondary at full strength since Stephon Gilmore (ankle) made the trip and is expected to play. Wind gusts could reach 20 miles per hour but temperatures are expected to reach the mid-80s, the warmest of the day around the NFL.

N.Y. Giants (-3/40) at Washington, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Mark Sanchez won’t face the Jets this season, so this is the closest New Yorkers will get to reconnecting with the former Jets’ starter charged with trying to extend Washington’s star-crossed season. The first two guys who have played the position for the ‘Skins this season have suffered broken legs, leaving Sanchez in the unlikely position of taking over a .500 team in December despite sitting out most of the season. He failed to lead the offense to a single point in Philadelphia’s Monday night win after replacing an injured Colt McCoy, throwing for just 100 yards and an interception. Jamison Crowder returns to give him another quality target to work with and the absence of standout safety Landon Collins makes it easier to imagine him having some success against New York given the zip he put on his throws.

Leading Washington to a win could be as simple as avoiding mistakes and putting his defense in bad positions since they’re likely to do the heavy lifting against an offense that will be missing Odell Beckham, Jr. due to a quad injury. His absence could mean that Eli Manning won’t try force-feeding him the ball, giving the offense a better flow with Saquon Barkley as the bell cow. The rookie No. 2 pick has picked up at least 100 yards of total offense in all but one game this season.It’s expected to be a great day weather-wise in Landover, light on wind despite temperatures in the high-30s.

Denver (-3/45.5) at San Francisco, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: The Broncos pulled off their third consecutive win last week, winning convincingly in Cincinnati to cover a spread for the sixth time in seven games. They’ve been a road favorite three times this season, losing at the Jets while blowing out the Cardinals and beating the Bengals last week. Since the 49ers have been crushed by a combined score of 70-25 over the past two weeks and have only covered once in their last six outings, seeing how small this spread is has sounded off “trap game” alarm bells.

Rookie Phillip Lindsay hasn’t been as productive as Barkley but has been exceptional in his own right, racking up five touchdown runs over the past three weeks while coming off his best performance of his young career, gaining 157 yards on 19 carries. He gained 65 of those yards in one chunk and faces a 49ers defense that has been effective against the run but has struggled since releasing LB Reuben Foster.

San Francisco won’t have to deal with WR Emmanuel Sanders, who tore his Achilles in practice, leaving Case Keenum without his top target as he looks to rookies Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton to fill prominent roles. The Broncos will look to set the tone on defense, a task made it easier by not having to face 49ers top rusher Matt Breida, who has been ruled out with an ankle injury. An overcast day with temperatures topping out around 60 degrees should make for excellent football weather, especially since winds are expected to be scarce.